Election Analysis

Jasper Harris

On the 25th of March NSW, Australia’s largest state, went to the polls and decided its next government and premier. The incumbent Coalition under Dominic Perrottet had been in power for 12 years and came up against Labor under Chris Minns, looking to return to power.

On election night, Chris Minns led the Labor party to a 6.5% swing and to a minority government. The Coalition lost 13 seats to Labor and independents statewide, a defeat that leaves big questions not just for the Liberal party in NSW but around the country. Labor now runs the continent, on a state and federal level, with only Tasmania home to a Liberal government.

The Coalition minority government was only two seats short of a majority and entered into 2023 seeking a fourth term. Yet, they also carried the baggage of losing the popular leader that took them to victory previously in 2019, Gladys Berejiklian, who resigned following the opening of a corruption inquiry.

On top of this, the Nationals lost charismatic leader John Barilaro, who was later embroiled in a ‘jobs for the boys’ scandal - a controversial appointment to a plump trade envoy job in New York he helped create. Even if people in NSW generally didn’t have an issue with new leader Dominic Perrottet, there was vast, apparent apathy and a momentum for change in the electorate.

The Liberals’ plan to win the election focused on the benefits of incumbency, portraying themselves as the better economic managers, while pledging to invest more into schools and hospitals, along with increased funding for public transport like Sydney’s new metro.

Under the leadership of Chris Minns since June 2022, Labor came into the election with 36 seats, having rebuilt to that point after their 32-seat loss in 2011, when they last held government.

Labor was looking to finish rebuilding its path to power and campaigned on a simple platform of anti-privatisation of government assets, and capping tolls in line with a broader cost of living agenda. The Coalition capped public sector worker wage rises at 3 percent, and Labor promised to repeal that, along with promising further funding for new schools, hospitals, and public transport. Labor also plans to invest $1 billion in a new government-owned body to fund renewable energy projects.

Labor’s path to victory on election night was startling. With a swing of over 6%, Labor won many of the most marginal seats in the west and south of Sydney, and the South coast, building off the Bega byelection win last year. On the ABC’s election night coverage, just two and half hours after counting had started, the data was in, and there was no path for the Coalition back to power. However, despite the swing, it is not a resounding victory, as Labor has fallen two seats short of a majority government.

The big takeaway from election night was the Coalition’s story. Another major blow for the Liberal party, you now have to cross a sea to find a Liberal jurisdiction.

This means there is now a national issue for the Liberal ‘brand’. Dominic Perrottet resigned as leader of the NSW Liberals, and there’s now talk of a possible move to federal politics for him. The future discussion will focus on what the Liberals need to do after such resounding defeats across the country. Do they move to the centre to get back their metropolitan ‘heartland’ seats, like Kooyong, or North Sydney? Do they move further to the right as Peter Dutton and others in the party want? Right now though, the party of Menzies is struggling to attract a broad enough spread of voters to win back power anywhere.

The Nationals lost two seats in the election and have received another notice that they are falling out of favour with the rural electorates they traditionally represent. With Labor and other independents taking seats away from them, there is a need for a revamp among the nationals as to what the party stands for, as they can no longer bank on being the only country-focused political party.

With the Aston by-election coming up in Melbourne, in what should be one of the safest Liberal seats, there will be a big test for Peter Dutton’s leadership of the Liberals. For the Liberals to win again, there has to be a significant shift in focus back to core values and addressing the issues that led them to tumble from power all over the country. What exactly those core values are, though, remains contested.

Labor, for its part, now has momentum nationally. Though it occupies the traditional “left” of mainstream politics, the Greens and other progressive independents continue to challenge Labor and its more centrist policies. With the Liberals out of contention for the moment, the question is, will they go further on new policies? Will they revisit old challenges like capital gains and negative gearing? Will there be further changes to combat climate change?

Now in 2023, this feels like a new time in Australian politics. Between Labor so dominantly in control nationally, the Liberals having been so resoundingly defeated up and down the ballot, and the rise of minor parties and independents, it’s never been a more exciting time to follow politics. What happens next will be anyone’s guess. But at least we don’t have to read about NSW anymore.