N19ND by World News Media Limited

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technology

Synthetic bear bile could reshape countless areas of western medicine

energy

With costs set to plummet, hydrogen fuel is enjoying a resurgence in popularity

business

Public trust issues present hurdles to sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile money boom

strategy

More brands are rejecting a profit-first mentality in the name of environmentalism

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autumn/winter 2019 | £3.95

autumn/winter 2019

I n t el l ig en c e s p e a k s f o r i t s el f

theneweconomy.com

Site for sore eyes

censorship debates intensify following 8chan shutdown

blood from a stone

The fight against mosquitoborne disease is underfunded

peak performance

davos 2020 attendees seek to win over their detractors Intell igence speaks for i tself

theneweconomy.com

Rural reboot With demographic decline leaving the countryside underpopulated, governments are deploying digital solutions to reinvigorate neglected locations

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c o m m en ts

autumn/winter 2019

back to nature Humanity has always relied on the natural world for the resources we need to survive. Yet, as we have evolved, the demands placed on the environment have intensified. With the planet now buckling under the strain, it is vital that we stop putting our own needs first. China’s Three Gorges Dam project was built to provide clean energy solutions for the country’s fast-growing economy (p. 96), but the structure’s green credentials are vastly overshadowed by the adverse effect it has on local communities and ecosystems. The discrepancy between the dam’s aims and its execution is emblematic of the flawed way humanity often interacts with the natural world, ultimately valuing progress over preservation. In the case of home DNA-testing kits (p. 80), meanwhile, it is our desire for knowledge, not our attempts to establish dominion, that causes conflict. While users are happy to offer up their genetic data for analysis, the results are often more than they can handle. With family secrets being revealed and concerns about privacy raised, perhaps society should keep its nose out of the natural order. Of course, not all scientific ventures are about manipulating the environment for personal gain. Often, nature provides a vital starting point for research. Such is the case with the development of a synthetic alternative to bear bile, which is being used to improve the success rate of organ transplants (p. 30). Taking inspiration from a naturally occurring substance, scientists have developed a substitute that no longer requires the cruel and unsustainable breeding of bears for its production.

One member of the animal kingdom that few would deem worthy of protection, however, is the mosquito (p. 84). Scientists are working to eradicate the disease-spreading creatures, and with research indicating that this would have no negative impact on global ecosystems, it seems that – for once – human intervention may in fact benefit the environment, rather than put it at risk. Urban populations must reintegrate with the natural world if we are to stop treating the planet as a supplier of infinite resources. To tackle rural demographic decline, governments are designing ‘smart villages’ that offer all the technological advancements of the city without the need to relocate (p. 24). With the Earth’s resources being used at an astounding rate, our relationship with the environment is only becoming more fraught. There is cause for optimism, though: this year saw individuals, businesses and governments demonstrating a greater awareness of the climate crisis we are facing. With movements such as Extinction Rebellion gaining traction, it seems we are finally attempting to make amends for the damage we have inflicted on nature.

Ashton Wenborn Features Editor

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20 19 te r in /w tu m n au

Into the wild

Increasingly, residents of rural towns are relocating to cities in search of job opportunities and access to resources. In an attempt to lure residents back to the countryside, many locations are using technology to create ‘smart villages’ that are just as developed as their urban counterparts

The Knowledge A REVIEW OF THE BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY SECTORS THROUGH THE MOST NOTABLE, IMPRESSIVE AND INTRIGUING STORIES OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS

Untangling the web

Following a series of mass shootings associated with the controversial imageboard 8chan, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince revoked the site’s security provision, condemning it to a digital grave. In the wake of Prince’s decision, a passionate debate about online censorship has surfaced

Perspectives STEFAAN G VERHULST, KARIN NANSEN AND TEJ KOHLI OFFER EXPERT ANALYSIS ON PRIVATE DATA, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BENEFITS OF COMBINING AI WITH BIOTECH

Talking heads WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF CEOS AND ECCENTRIC BILLIONAIRES INVESTING IN OUTLANDISH ‘MOONSHOT’ PROJECTS, WE ASK WHETHER IT’S TIME TO START BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN TO EARTH

Insight WHILE CAPABLE OF GENERATING VAST AMOUNTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, CHINA’S THREE GORGES DAM ALSO POSES DISTINCT RISKS TO LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEMS

endgame THE AVERAGE EMPLOYEE SPENDS 11 HOURS PER WEEK CHECKING EMAILS. WITH MORE EFFICIENT COMMUNICATION TOOLS COMING TO THE FORE, EMAIL LOOKS SET FOR A SORRY SEND-OFF

Davos 2020

A less-than-remarkable summit in 2019 has put pressure on the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting to prove its worth. As detractors point to a lack of action, the WEF will once again fly to Switzerland to discuss issues such as big tech, globalisation, privacy and the environment

84 Buzzkill

Through the spread of deadly diseases, mosquitoes are responsible for more human deaths than any other animal, and their reach is only widening. Scientists are working to quell the crisis through gene-editing technology, but a lack of funding is slowing progress 7

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youtube.com/theneweconomyvideos

HEAD OF PRINT:

Helen de Beer FEATURES EDITORS:

30 | Healthcare

50 | Nuclear Power

A long-time staple of Chinese medicine, the use of bear bile is often condemned in the West. A new synthetic alternative may transform the nature of organ transplants

After an explosion in Russia left five people dead, the government attempted to conceal the details of the incident. Experts believe it was testing a nuclear missile

40 | Circular Economy

54 | Hydrogen

While the use of plastic is often vilified in the media, improvements to collection methods could ensure the versatile material is effectively integrated into the circular economy

In 2017, the small archipelago of Orkney became the first state to generate hydrogen from tidal power. Now, global superpowers are hoping to get in on the act

Max Tomlin Ashton Wenborn PRODUCTION ASSISTANT:

Jack Pearson HEAD OF EDITORIAL:

Elizabeth Matsangou EDITORIAL:

Barclay Ballard Charlotte Gifford Sophie Perryer DESIGNER:

Sam Millard REPROGRAPHER:

Robin Sloan WEB & MOBILE DEVELOPMENT:

Ben Debski Scott Rouse VIDEO PRODUCER:

Paul Richardson PRODUCTION COORDINATOR:

Omaira Farina HEAD OF FINANCE:

Richard Willcox HEAD OF CONTENT STRATEGY:

Andrew Cake

s u

b 8

Thomas Dupre Ken Forrest Malcolm Gade

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT:

62 | Investment

90 | Corporate Governance

Sub-Saharan Africa is a world leader when it comes to mobile money, but political barriers and public trust issues are preventing some countries from capitalising

As consumers grow increasingly vocal over the damaging impact of the business world, companies are starting to move away from the profit-at-all-costs mantra

80 | DNA Testing

92 | Data Ownership

With home DNA-testing kits on the rise, genealogy companies have access to more data than ever. Privacy advocates believe greater control is needed moving forward

In February, OpenAI chose not to release its GPT-2 program for fear of facilitating the publication of fake news. The AI community has since taken matters into its own hands

Published by: World News Media Ltd 40 Compton Street London EC1V 0BD United Kingdom T: +44 (0) 207 253 5100 www.theneweconomy.com The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources the proprietors believe to be correct. However, no legal liability can be accepted for any errors. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior consent of the publisher. Pages 18-23, editorial ÂŠ Project Syndicate 2019 ÂŠ World News Media Ltd, 2019 All rights reserved. Printed in the United Kingdom. ISSN 1755-2230

Foto: Lakeside Sciene & Technology Park/Gert Steinthaler

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Carinthia Expand, invest and work in a region prized for its technological innovation and high quality of life

www.investincarinthia.at

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www.trilliant.com/tne

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coming up roses The da Vinci surgical robot demonstrates its fine motor skills at the 2019 Summer Davos Forum. The robot allows surgeons to operate remotely, eliminating geographical barriers to high-quality healthcare. The idea of telesurgery, which uses wireless networking and robotic technology to connect surgeons and patients in distant locations, was first conceived by NASA as a way of making long-term human spaceflight more viable: using the remote-controlled robot, surgeons on Earth would be able to operate on astronauts. The technologyâ€™s uses extend far beyond space travel, though: rural clinics, war zones and long-distance training in developing countries are all areas that could benefit. 11

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Europe’s e-commerce market

E-commerce markets are growing as internet penetration rates around the world increase. The value of South-East Asia’s internet economy, for example, is expected to hit $300bn by 2025. Meanwhile, e-commerce sales in Europe are forecast to reach €621bn ($683bn) in 2019. Although Western Europe accounts for approximately 66 percent of that turnover, Eastern European countries are rapidly catching up. Today, the Czech Republic’s e-commerce market is the fastest-growing in the region.

E-COMMERCE COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (2017-21)

16%

CZECH REPUBLIC

14% ITALY

11% FINLAND

France supports its unicorns French President Emmanuel Macron announced in September that France had raised €5bn ($5.48bn) from institutional investors to pump into tech start-ups over the next three years. Today, the country is home to seven unicorns (start-ups with a value of more than $1bn), but Macron plans to increase this to 25 by 2025. Of the total sum raised, €2bn ($2.19bn) will be invested in French venture capital funds focused on late-stage investments. The other €3bn ($3.29bn) will be allocated to global tech funds with French managers. A lack of financing is often cited as one of the main barriers to the development of start-ups in France. As a result, successful French start-ups tend to find a foreign buyer or relocate to the US to realise their growth potential. As a former investment banker, Macron is well aware of the importance of attracting foreign investment to the country. This is especially important if he is to fulfil his ambition of turning Paris into a tech hub that will rival its European competitors, such as Berlin and London. 12

9% UK

7.3% GERMANY

Source: JPMorgan Chase 2019 Global Payments Trends Report

€5bn

TO BE INVESTED IN FRENCH TECH START-UPS

Diesel drama Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz, will pay almost $1bn for breaking diesel emissions regulations, German prosecutors ruled on September 24. The carmaker was found guilty of “negligent violation” of its supervisory duties, as certain diesel vehicles were certified despite exceeding emissions thresholds. About 684,000 cars were sold that did not comply with EU regulations regarding the emission of nitrogen oxide, a greenhouse gas and key ingredient in smog. The carmaker has faced probes in Germany and the US over allegations that it used manipulated emissions results. In Germany, more than 200,000 Mercedes-Benz C-Class and E-Class vehicles were fitted with software that altered the emission-filtering system so that cars looked cleaner than they were during testing. Regulators around the world, but particularly in Germany, have been scrutinis-

Resistance on the rise Research has shown that antimicrobial-resistant infections are dramatically increasing among farm animals in lowto-middle-income countries. Between 2000 and 2018, the rate of antibiotic resistance increased significantly in pigs, cattle and poultry, researchers from ETH Zurich found. The alarming discovery has important implications for human health. As regions including China , India and Latin America become wealthier, their meat consumption is rising. While this can result in people leading healthier lives, there is a hidden toll on global health: to meet the growing demand for meat, farmers rely increasingly on antibiotics to prevent animals from becoming infected and to increase their weight gain.

684,000

DAIMLER CARS DID NOT COMPLY WITH EU REGULATIONS

ing automakers closely since the Volkswagen emissions scandal of 2015. In May, Porsche and Bosch each received fines, with the former paying €535m ($585.74m) and the latter €90m ($98.54m). Daimler has said it will not challenge the ruling. The company had already set aside €1.6bn ($1.75bn) in anticipation of the fine, and as such expects its third-quarter earnings to be unaffected. In addition, Daimler expects its sales volumes to be level with last year’s.

66%

Against the

stream

Taking CTRL

Netflix is anticipating its worst quarterly performance since 2012. Its shares have dropped 30 percent since June, as Apple and Disney prepare to release rival streaming platforms. Some analysts nevertheless remain optimistic for Netflix’s prospects: a Piper Jaffray survey suggests that 75 percent of its subscribers don’t plan on switching. We take a look at the subscriber numbers of some of the world’s largest streaming companies.

Facebook has acquired CTRL-labs, a US start-up developing technology that will allow people to control electronic devices with their brains. The company is building a wristband that detects electrical signals and translates them into a digital signal that devices can understand. Facebook will reportedly pay $1bn for the company. It is one of the biggest acquisitions the firm has made since it bought virtual reality company Oculus VR for $2bn in 2014. The social media platform first hinted at its interest in brain computing during a developer conference in 2017. Its acquisition of CTRL-labs shows that this burgeoning technology is gaining significant ground. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently announced that Neuralink, his own brain-computing technology company, would be ready for human trials in 2020.

INCREASE IN MEAT CONSUMPTION IN ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

“Antimicrobials have saved millions of human lives, yet the majority (73 percent) are used in animals raised for food,” the ETH Zurich study found. Such excessive usage ultimately increases the risk of drug-resistant bacteria spreading. Among the highest rates of antimicrobial resistance were found in North-East China, North-East India, the south of Brazil, Iran and Turkey. In these areas, bacteria such as Salmonella and E coli are now resistant to a large number of the drugs used to prevent infection, not just in animals but also in humans. “Antimicrobial resistance is a global problem,” one of the researchers said. “There is little point in making considerable efforts to reduce it on one side of the world if it is increasing dramatically on the other side.”

150m Netflix

100m

Amazon Prime

28m Hulu

8m HBO

Showtime

2.4m Sling TV

YouTube TV

800,000 PlayStation Vue

How to save a life A new global initiative aims to provide health workers in developing countries with the latest data analytics tools. Funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, UNICEF, the World Health Organisation and other groups, the project will put $100m into delivering cutting-edge tools that will give health workers crucial insights into the wellbeing of their patients. Specifically, the project will focus on reducing maternal and child fatalities. It plans to help prevent six million such deaths in 10 countries by 2030. The initiative will be rolled out in India and Uganda first, before expanding into eight more countries over the next decade. The tools will be built using existing databases collected by health workers and government authorities. The quality of the data available presents one of the biggest obstacles to the initiative, as many of these countries rely on handwritten records. 13

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ALTHOUGH THE WORLD WIDE WEB WAS INVENTED IN 1989, WI-FI HAS ONLY BEEN A FEATURE OF OUR LIVES FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS. THE TECHNOLOGY HAS COME A LONG WAY SINCE ITS INTRODUCTION IN 1999, WHEN SPEEDS WERE ROUGHLY A THOUSANDTH OF WHAT THEY ARE TODAY

Wi-Fi can now be accessed on aeroplanes 35,000ft in the air,

Y E A R S O F W I- F I TIMELINE

The organisation introduced the term ‘Wi-Fi’

The first Wi-Fi-certified TVs and mobile phones entered the market

600

7,000 10,000

802.11b (1999)

Wi-Fi 4 (2009)

802.11a (1999)

Wi-Fi 5 (2013)

802.11g (2003)

Wi-Fi 6 (2019)

WI-FI IN SIX GENERATIONS 802.11b

WI-FI

The first version of Wi-Fi had a maximum theoretical speed of just 11Mbps when it was released in 1999. It was still up to five times faster than WaveLAN technology at the time, however, and its lower prices made it a highly desirable piece of wireless technology.

WI-FI

The third iteration of Wi-Fi-certified products were rapidly adopted by the industry when they were introduced in 2003. Wi-Fi 3 operated on the 2.4GHz bandwidth to maximise compatibility, but faced issues with older devices: adding just one could slow down whole networks by as much as 21 percent.

WI-FI

Lag was significantly reduced with the arrival of Wi-Fi 5 in 2013, while wider bandwidth channels and multi-user multiple-input multiple-output (MU-MIMO) technologies were also introduced. The simultaneous streams allowed Wi-Fi-certified products to communicate with more devices.

The one billionth Wi-Fi device was shipped

802.11a

WI-FI

Wi-Fi 2 (formally known as 802.11a) was also released in 1999. It offered faster speeds than its predecessor and reduced interference by switching to a 5.8GHz bandwidth. However, its range was frequently impaired by solid objects – like walls – meaning its effectiveness was often limited.

WI-FI

Wi-Fi 4’s ability to operate on both 2.4GHz and 5.8GHz bandwidths combined the benefits of versions two and three, offering a boosted data speed. The platform’s major setback was that it could only handle signals from one device at a time – not ideal for large corporations or even families.

WI-FI

Officially released in 2019, Wi-Fi 6 is the first product certified by the Wi-Fi Alliance to be built with the Internet of Things (IoT) in mind. The continued use of MU-MIMO technology allows more downlink data to be transferred, while the target wake time will significantly improve battery life in IoT devices.

802.11g

The world reached one million Wi-Fi hotspots

Wi-Fi was present in 25 percent of homes worldwide

The 30 billionth Wi-Fi device shipped

WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF THE TECHNOLOGY AND WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ITS LATEST ITERATION, WI-FI 6, IN 2019

Wi-Fi speeds reached 150Mbps

Global value of Wi-Fi reached $2trn

and even on the Moon, as demonstrated by NASA and MIT in 2014.

MAXIMUM THEORETICAL SPEEDS Mpbs

The Wireless Ethernet Compatibility Alliance was formed

at the base camp of Mount Everest, at a height of 17,598ft,

802.11n

802.11ac

802.11ax

Sources: Wi-Fi.org, World Economic Forum, Ookla, The Verge, Entrepreneur.com, CableFree, CNET

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UN-restricted access North Korea is violating UN sanctions and generating significant income from a thriving domestic smartphone market, according to a Reuters report released in September. Since 2017, UN sanctions have prohibited North Korea from importing mobile phone hardware. However, the country appears to be bypassing these sanctions, with smartphones in the country found to contain Taiwanese semiconductors and Chinese batteries. North Korean mobile phones typically cost between $100 and $400, with prepaid plans costing around $13 for 100 minutes. While these prices are similar to those paid by customers in other countries, North Koreans only earn around $100 per month on average, making a mobile phone something of a luxury purchase. Despite this, economists estimate that six million North Koreans – a quarter of the

population – now own a mobile phone. With salaries so low, smartphones represent a key source of income for many, with devices facilitating participation in the growing informal market economy. In a survey of 126 North Korean defectors, more than 90 percent said mobile phones improved their lives, while around half used them to join the market economy. Researchers and defectors attribute the continued growth of the smartphone business to informal trade between North Korea and China. There are many smaller players in China’s smartphone manufacturing sector that could be trading with North Korea, while larger companies may also be implicated. For example, the US Department of Commerce is still reviewing whether or not Huawei secretly helped North Korea build and maintain its commercial wireless network.

Lightning in a bottle Reusable water bottles may be good for the planet, but their design usually makes them tricky to wash – a fact that has deterred many hygiene-conscious consumers. LARQ, the world’s first selfcleaning water bottle, solves this problem. Containing an LED that transmits UV-C light in the 280-nanometre wavelength, the LARQ Bottle kills any bacteria and viruses present inside the receptacle, in addition to purifying the drinking water. Users can turn on the light manually or set it to automatically activate every two hours. When set to the highest mode, the LARQ Bottle neutralises up to 99.9999 percent of harmful bacteria and 99.99 percent of viruses. The LARQ Bottle is part of a growing corner of eco-friendly consumer tech that has emerged in response to an increasing shift away from single-use plastic containers.

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NORTH KOREANS WHO OWN A SMARTPHONE

99.99%

PROPORTION OF VIRUSES KILLED IN THE LARQ BOTTLE

Crocodile hunting In North-Eastern Australia, the Government of Queensland is deploying drones to help protect tourists from crocodiles in holiday destinations. The Ripper Group, an Australian drone manufacturer, has already demonstrated the success of its devices by using them to spot sharks off the coast of New South Wales. The drones use an algorithm – developed in partnership with the University of Technology Sydney – that can reportedly identify up to 16 different marine species with an accuracy rate of 93 percent. The algorithm has been adapted to detect crocodiles among the mangroves in Queensland. Although crocodile attacks are relatively rare in Australia, there were five incidents in Queensland between 2017 and OF QUEENSLAND 2018, two of which were fatal. Recently, there have also been unusual sightings of the reptiles CROCODILE in residential areas, prompting authorities to ATTACKS WERE take a new course of action. FATAL IN 2017-18

40%

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NE W HOR I ZONS

“The scrutiny directed [towards] me has become a significant distraction, and I have decided that it is in the best interest of the company to step down.” WeWork CEO Adam Neumann announces his resignation after the company’s plans to go public derailed. Neumann had been accused of exerting too much influence. “The launch of Hanguang 800 is an important step in our pursuit of next-generation technologies... [driving] both our current and emerging businesses.” Alibaba CTO Jeff Zhang reveals the company’s first AI chip, which specialises in machine-learning tasks and will be used to enhance its cloud computing services. “Facebook has incredible power to affect elections... Mark Zuckerberg is telling employees that he views a Warren administration as an ‘existential’ threat.” US presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, a strong proponent of breaking up big tech companies, suggests Facebook could discriminate against her online campaign.

NO SMALL TASK In a major milestone, Google has reportedly achieved ‘quantum supremacy’, meaning its quantum computer can carry out calculations that have otherwise proved impossible. A leaked Google research paper, seen by the Financial Times, stated that the company’s newest quantum computer, Sycamore, could perform calculations that would take today’s most advanced classical computers approximately 10,000 years to complete in just 200 seconds. Quantum computers are able to simultaneously evaluate multiple possibilities, allowing them to carry out complex simulations that aren’t possi-

200

SECONDS TAKEN BY SYCAMORE TO COMPLETE A 10,000-YEAR CALCULATION

ble on classical computers. As a result, quantum computing is expected to trigger significant advances across many areas, including pharmaceuticals and machine learning. However, it could also make modern encryption methods redundant, as quantum computers are able to calculate the very large prime numbers that currently underpin most of the world’s digital security measures. Despite Google’s potential breakthrough, the research paper suggested the use of quantum computers to solve practical problems was still some years off.

“Malaysia’s early commitment to 5G, to rapidly deploying 5G test beds... will position the country as one of the leaders of 5G adoption.” Malaysia’s Minister of Communications and Multimedia, Gobind Singh Deo, voices his hopes for Malaysia’s 5G plan, as the country prepares for a nationwide demonstration. “What public markets do is indeed the great reckoning. But it cleanses [a] company of all of the bad stuff that they have.” Salesforce founder and CEO Marc Benioff warns that start-ups are staying private for too long, leading to governance issues that public investors could have helped them avoid.

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Tej Kohli

TECHNOLOGY AND REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEUR

Technologyâ€™s change of heart Artificial intelligence has the power to completely revolutionise the organ-donation process, but ethical considerations must be taken into account Artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology are both on an exponential growth trajectory, with the potential to improve how we experience our lives and even to extend life itself. But few have considered how these two frontier technologies could be brought together symbiotically to tackle global health and environmental challenges. Consider the pace of recent developments in both fields: biotechnology, in cost-benefit terms, has been improving by a factor of 10 every year. The cost of deciphering the human genome has dropped from $3bn in 2001 to about $1,000 today; a process that took months 10 years ago can now be completed in less than an hour. Likewise, based on current developments, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that AIâ€™s contribution to global output will reach $15.7trn by 2030 â€“ more than the current combined output of China and India. Yet, if anything, these predictions underestimate the economic impact. AI applications will eventually be so broad and so embedded in every aspect of our daily lives that they will likely contribute three to four times more to global output than the internet, which today accounts 18

for around $50trn of the global economy. Moreover, the siloed nature of current analyses means that potential AI/biotech combination technologies have not been fully considered or priced in.

Increased reach For example, combination technologies could tackle a global health issue such as organ donation. According to the World Health Organisation, an average of around 100,800 solid organ transplants were performed each year as of 2008. Yet, in the US, there are nearly 113,000 people waiting for a life-saving organ transplant, while thousands of good organs are discarded each year. For years, those in need of a kidney transplant had limited options: they either had to find a willing and biologically viable living donor, or wait for a viable deceased donor to show up in their local hospital. But with enough patients and willing donors, big data and AI make it possible to facilitate far more matches than this oneto-one system allows, through a system of paired kidney donation. Patients can now procure a donor who is not a biological fit

N19ND_019_D06_20797.pdf

and still receive a kidney, because AI can match donors to recipients across a massive array of patient-donor relationships. In fact, a single person who steps forward to donate a kidney – to a loved one or even to a stranger – can set off a domino effect that saves dozens of lives by resolving the missing link in a long chain of pairings.

System upgrades Since the first paired kidney exchanges took place in 2000, nearly 6,000 people have received kidney transplants from donors identified by algorithms. But this could be just the start of AI-facilitated organ transplantation. AI can already identify potential donors and recipients; in the future, it will be able to account for even richer patient data, perhaps including moral and religious factors, to help with sequencing and triage decisions (that is, determining whether someone should get a transplant before someone else). The biggest hurdle preventing these AI models from reaching their full potential is biological. In theory, AI applications could draw on data sets encompassing all living and deceased organ donors and all patients worldwide. But, in practice, there is a time limitation on most organ pairings, because organs from deceased donors are viable for transplantation for only a short period. To be paired, recipients must be located within a geographic radius that can be reached in time. Fortunately, synthetic biotechnology could vastly expand the scope of feasible pairings. Globally, the synthetic biology market is growing fast, and is expected to exceed $12.5bn by 2024, ref lecting a compound annual growth rate of 20 percent. Within this emerging industry, there are companies (including one in which I am an investor) exploring methods of preserving and even regenerating organs outside of the body, potentially for multiple days at an ambient temperature. This could extend the distances that organs can be transported, thus enabling a network effect by increasing

The matching power of AI means eight lives could be saved by just one deceased organ donor; innovations in biotechnology could ensure that organs are never wasted

the size of viable data pools from which AI models can draw to produce more efficient chains of pairings.

More to consider Perfecting new biotechnologies usually takes years. But, if successful, these innovations could revolutionise large areas of public health, with the global organ-donation regime being just the start. The moral and ethical implications of today’s frontier technologies are far-reaching. Fundamental questions have not been adequately addressed. How will algorithms weigh the needs of poor and wealthy patients? Should a donor organ be sent to a distant patient – potentially one in a different country – with a low rejection risk or to a nearby patient whose rejection risk is only slightly higher? These are important questions, but I believe we should get combination technologies up and working, and then decide on the appropriate controls. The matching power of AI means that eight lives could be saved by just one deceased organ donor; innovations in biotechnology could ensure that organs are never wasted. The faster these technologies advance, the more lives we can save. AI and biotech are undergoing rapid development precisely because they have such far-reaching potential. As they move forward, we must keep looking for new combinations to unlock. I suspect that we will find we have underestimated their potential by considering them in isolation. tne 19

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Karin Nansen

CHAIR, FRIENDS OF THE EARTH INTERNATIONAL

False climate solutions are benefitting no one Governments within the developed world must re-evaluate their current economic systems in order to drastically cut carbon emissions at the source In a recent special report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argued that addressing climate change will require fundamental changes to the way we manage forests and farmland. The data is new, but the underlying conclusion isn’t: for over a decade, scientists, environmentalists and civil society organisations have been warning that our prevailing – and deeply unjust – model of production and consumption lies at the root of the climate crisis. Protecting the planet on which our survival depends will require nothing short of a system change. The world – and the developed countries, in particular – has built an eco20

nomic system focused on capital accumulation, which privileges corporate profits over the wellbeing of people and the environment, entrenching injustice and rewarding its perpetrators. This process has been unfolding for centuries, but has accelerated in recent decades as a select few have acquired an ever-larger share of total wealth and political influence. Today, just 100 corporations produce 71 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. The wealthiest 10 percent of people are responsible for around 50 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, while the poorest 50 percent produce 10 percent of emissions.

Finding new solutions Unwilling to stand up to those who are destroying our planet, political leaders have latched onto technological solutions, including geoengineering approaches that promise to suck already-emitted carbon out of the atmosphere. Even the IPCC included assumptions about such technologies in many of its modelled pathways for keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But geoengineering technologies are unproven, unsafe and unrealistic. Consider bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), the leading proposed path to net-negative emissions. BECCS entails growing certain crops as biomass, burning the plant material for energy, capturing the

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CO2 emitted during combustion and storing it underground. That sounds promising until one recognises that growing biomass on the necessary scale would require an estimated three billion hectares – twice the Earth’s currently cultivated land. Any attempt to implement BECCS would thus be impossible without mass deforestation and soil degradation in the tropical belt of the Southern Hemisphere, where most fast-growing biomass is produced. Land grabs are virtually guaranteed. Moreover, as agricultural land is transformed to produce biomass, food prices could rise, fuelling hunger and malnutri-

tion. Further, the destruction of vital ecosystems would eliminate the livelihoods of local communities and indigenous peoples. Hyping BECCS and other misleading promises – such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation initiatives and carbon-trading schemes – is expedient for rich countries, corporations and elites, because the technology charade enables them to continue profiting from the climate crisis they have created. But, by distracting from real imperatives, it allows the crisis to deepen and disproportionately affect those who have contributed the least.

The importance of accountability

If we keep indulging the fantasy that some ‘silver bullet’ solution will rescue us from the climate crisis, progress will be impossible

It is time for those who caused the climate crisis to take responsibility for addressing it. To this end, developed-country governments must take the lead in drastically cutting emissions at source by pursuing a comprehensive transformation of their energy, transport, food and economic systems. Essential steps include ending investment in fossil fuels, transforming our

energy systems towards community and public renewable energy systems, abandoning destructive practices like industrial agriculture and logging, community management of biodiversity and water resources, and reorganising urban life to support sustainability. Neoliberal trade and investment agreements that prioritise the interests of business over environmental sustainability and human rights must be reversed to allow for these solutions. At the same time, developed-country governments must provide large-scale public financing to support the much-needed transformation in the developing world. To succeed, the transition must be just and ensure the rights of workers, peasants, women, migrants and indigenous peoples. Here, public and community ownership is crucial. Social movements in the Global South are already providing models of this approach. For example, La Via Campesina – an international movement comprising peasants, smallholder farmers, agricultural workers, rural women, youth, indigenous people and others – has shown how peasant agriculture and agroecology can cool the planet, feed its inhabitants, nurture its soil, support its forests, safeguard seed diversity and protect water basins. Moreover, community forest management helps to safeguard the forests, protecting the livelihoods of those who depend on them and preserving biodiversity. As it stands, only eight percent of the world’s forests are in the hands of communities. With strong political will and the right policies, we can systemically tackle climate change and related crises, including biodiversity loss, water scarcity, hunger and rising inequality. If, however, we keep indulging the fantasy that some ‘silver bullet’ solution will rescue us, progress will be impossible. tne 21

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Stefaan G Verhulst CO-FOUNDER, THE GOVLAB, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY

Sharing private data for public good Data-sharing initiatives must be designed and handled responsibly to ensure data privacy concerns are taken into account. When applied successfully, they offer huge potential for a variety of industries After Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, the direct-mail marketing company Valassis shared its database with emergency agencies and volunteers to help improve aid delivery. In Santiago, Chile, analysts from Universidad del Desarrollo, ISI Foundation, UNICEF and the GovLab collaborated with Telefónica, the city’s largest mobile operator, to study gender-based mobility patterns in order to design a more equitable transportation policy. And, as part of the Yale University Open Data Access project, healthcare companies Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic and SI-BONE give researchers access to previously walled-off data from 333 clin22

ical trials, opening the door to possible new innovations in medicine. These are just three examples of ‘data collaboratives’, an emerging form of partnership in which participants exchange data for the public good. Such tie-ups typically involve public bodies using data from corporations and other private sector entities to benefit society, but data collaboratives can help companies too – pharmaceutical firms share data on biomarkers to accelerate their own drug research efforts, for example. Data-sharing initiatives also have huge potential to improve artificial intelligence (AI), but they must be designed responsibly and take data privacy concerns into account.

Data collaboratives typically involve public bodies using data from corporations and other private sector entities to benefit society, but they can help companies too

spending more effectively, increase profits, and identify new risks and opportunities. Yet for all the progress and promise, data collaboration is still a nascent field, and we are only starting to understand its benefits and potential drawbacks. Our approach at the GovLab emphasises the mutual benefit of collaboration and aims to build trust between data suppliers and users. As part of this process, we have begun designing an institutional framework that places responsible data collaboration at the heart of public and private sector entities’ operations. This includes identifying chief data stewards in these organisations to lead the design and implementation of systematic, sustainable and ethical collaborative efforts. The aim is to build a network of individuals from the private and public sectors promoting data stewardship.

Creating value Understanding the societal and business case for data collaboratives, as well as the forms they can take, is critical to gaining a deeper appreciation of the potential and limitations of such ventures. The GovLab has identified more than 150 data collaboratives spanning continents and sectors; they include companies such as Air France, Zillow and Facebook. Our research suggests that such partnerships can create value in three main ways. For starters, data collaboratives can improve situational and causal analysis. Their unique collections of data help government officials better understand issues such as traffic problems or financial inequality, and design more agile and focused evidence-based policies to address them. Moreover, such data exchanges enhance decision-makers’ predictive capacity. Today’s vast stores of public and private data can yield powerful insights into future developments and thus help policymakers plan and implement more effective measures. Finally, and most important, data collaboratives can make AI more robust,

accurate and responsive. Although analysts suggest AI will be at the centre of 21st-century governance, its output is only as good as the underlying models, and the sophistication and accuracy of the models generally depend on the quality, depth, complexity and diversity of data underpinning them. Data collaboratives can thus play a vital role in building better AI models by breaking down silos and aggregating data from new and alternative sources.

A better understanding Public-private data collaborations have great potential to benefit society. Policymakers analysing traffic patterns or economic development in cities could make their models more accurate by using call-detail records generated by telecoms providers, for example, and researchers could enhance their climate prediction models by adding data from commercial satellite operators. Data exchanges could be equally useful for the private sector, helping companies to boost their brand reputation, channel their research and development

Weighing up worries Given heightened concerns over data privacy and misuse – the so-called ‘techlash’ – some will understandably be wary of data-sharing initiatives. We are mindful of these legitimate worries, and of the reasons for the more general erosion of public trust. But we also believe that building rigorous frameworks and more systemic approaches to data collaboration are the best ways to address such concerns. Data collaboratives bring together otherwise siloed data and dispersed expertise, helping to match supply and demand for such information. Well-designed initiatives ensure the appropriate institutions and individuals use data responsibly to maximise the potential of innovative social policies. And accelerating the growth of data collaboratives is crucial to the further development of AI. Sharing data involves risks, but it also has the potential to transform the way we are governed. By harnessing the power of data collaboratives, governments can develop smarter policies that improve people’s lives. tne 23

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ALL OVER THE WORLD, RURAL AREAS ARE WITNESSING RAPID DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE – MANY ARE ALREADY COMPLETELY ABANDONED. ARRESTING THIS TREND AND ATTRACTING PEOPLE BACK TO THE COUNTRYSIDE WON’T BE EASY, BUT TECHNOLOGY MIGHT HOLD THE KEY, WRITES BARCLAY BALLARD »

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55%

68%

OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION CURRENTLY LIVES IN URBAN AREAS

In the not-too-distant future, individuals might hop into their autonomous car, drive to the grocery shop, pick up some goods and leave without handing over any cash, or even meeting another person. Bins could automatically send a message to waste management teams alerting them that they need to be emptied. Utilities will be able to inform the relevant engineering teams when they require maintenance. These futuristic features would fit right in alongside the gleaming skyscrapers of New York and Shanghai, but that might not be where they are destined to have the greatest impact. The smart city may be one of tech’s most talked-up innovations, but smart countrysides are making their way into reality too. Increasingly, rural areas are being stripped of the communities and infrastructure that sustain them as more people move to towns and cities, usually in search of better employment prospects. According to the United Nations, 55 percent of the global population already lives in urban areas, with this figure set to reach 68 percent by 2050. This increasing concentration is often discussed in relation to urban infrastructure: how will cities cope with this influx of people? The depopulation of villages and hamlets is an afterthought, if it is thought about at all.

OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS SET TO LIVE IN URBAN AREAS BY 2050

To let rural communities fade away, however, would be a mistake. The clean air, gentle pace of life and proximity to nature are all things to be treasured – it’s why many of those moving to cities do so with a heavy heart. In the years to come, however, technology may mean they don’t have to. Around the world, governments and private enterprises are looking at ways of preventing the countryside from being hollowed out.

Put out to pasture Walking along the abandoned streets of El Alamín, a deserted village in Spain’s Madrid province, is an eerie experience. Only founded in the 1950s, the municipality’s short-lived existence is a microcosm of the global depopulation of rural areas. In its heyday, when the village’s 40 or so houses were occupied by agricultural workers tending to land owned by the Marquess of Comillas, it operated in much the same way as any other rural community. There was a church, a school, a hairdresser and a post office, and the doctor came once a week from the nearby town of Villa del Prado. But when the agricultural work started to dwindle, things became more difficult for the inhabitants. One by one, they started to leave, moving to Villa del Prado, Madrid or further afield in search

RURAL AREAS ARE BEING STRIPPED OF THE COMMUNITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE THAT SUSTAIN THEM AS MORE PEOPLE MOVE TO TOWNS AND CITIES

of work. By the 2000s, the village of El Alamín was completely deserted, save for the odd visit by graffiti artists and airsoft players (a military simulation game not dissimilar to paintball). El Alamín’s story of decline can be found repeated across a number of Spanish provinces, as well as in Germany, the US and France – in fact, in any nation where agriculture no longer makes up as significant a part of the economy as it once did. Elvira Fafian, the founder of Spanish real estate firm Aldeas Abandonadas – which translates to ‘abandoned villages’ – estimates that there are approximately 1,500 abandoned hamlets in Spain alone. The decision to leave these places would not have been easy, but when already-threadbare services begin to disappear entirely, there is often little choice. “People living in the rural areas of developing countries face a range of challenges that threaten to isolate them from benefits that can be enjoyed by the rest of their populations,” Paul Marshall, founder and COO of global Internet of Things (IoT) company Eseye, told The New Economy. “Two major examples are with regards to accessing essential utilities such as water and power, as well as the challenges associated with accessing financial services and payment credit.”

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1,500 ABANDONED HAMLETS IN SPAIN

ONLINE RETAIL IN CHINA

39.1%

YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASE IN ONLINE RETAIL IN RURAL AREAS IN 2017

In some parts of the world, rural areas are struggling to sustain themselves, with many inhabitants retired or less mobile. Families that remain usually find that younger members leave for the city as soon as they get the chance, eager for change and a bigger social group. In Japan, there are currently an estimated 896 towns and villages that will no longer be viable for living in by 2040. With birth rates low, replacing the ageing population in rural areas is not easy. Policies that encourage population redistribution are essential to counteracting urban migratory flows. Often, rural communities are victims of a positive feedback loop: people leave, which means essential amenities cannot be sustained, which means more people leave. The cycle simply repeats until entire villages are left empty. Arresting this trend is difficult, as a glut of new jobs is unlikely to suddenly appear within the agricultural sector. New ways of attracting people back to the countryside must be explored instead.

CNY1.24trn VALUE OF ONLINE RETAIL IN RURAL AREAS IN 2017

896

VILLAGES IN JAPAN WON’T BE VIABLE BY 2040

9.8m

ONLINE SHOPS BASED IN VILLAGES IN 2017

Smart thinking Fortunately, many governments are looking into innovative ways of preventing rural depopulation and attracting newcomers to greener pastures. In China, efforts are underway to construct a number of ‘digital villages’ by 2020, focusing on making sure that 4G internet is available in more than 98 percent of locations. By 2035, the aim is for rural and urban residents to have access to public services of equal standing. Already, digital solutions are developing at such a pace in China’s rural areas that local economies are thriving. Online retail has allowed people to sell their products and services without having to be located in areas with high customer footfall. According to the country’s Ministry of Commerce, online retail in rural areas rose 39.1 percent year-on-year in 2017, reaching CNY 1.24trn ($173bn). Countrywide, more than 9.8 million online shops were based in villages by the end of 2017. Telemedicine, intelligent security systems and e-government services are also being

DIGITAL INCLUSION IN AUSTRALIA

SOLAR AND BATTERY TECHNOLOGY UNITS INSTALLED IN ESPERANCE

54km

OF OUTDATED GRID INFRASTRUCTURE REPLACED

deployed. The rural-urban living gap is slowly being closed. Likewise, in Australia, plans are afoot to improve digital inclusion in a country where all settlements outside the major cities are considered rural and remote by the government. The isolation and size of many of the country’s rural communities make delivering essential utilities difficult; as a result, more innovative solutions are being tested. Stateowned power company Horizon Power, for example, has installed 13 solar and battery technology units in the remote Esperance region, replacing 54km of outdated grid infrastructure. “In an urban area, utilities are delivered from a central source. In rural areas, however, it’s not quite as simple,” Marshall said. “To achieve sustainable, long-term solutions, these utilities must be delivered locally. However, the economics of delivering electricity to small villages of only 50 people, for example, make them far more difficult to implement. But, with technological developments in areas such as water purification or solar energy, this can be overcome. Furthermore, people are now not only enjoying a better quality of life, but these communities are able to source these utilities locally, whether it’s per property or per village.” » 27

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WATCH THIS SPACE GERMANY In Germany, the Digitale Dörfer scheme began in July 2015 with the aim of establishing a digital ecosystem in three municipalities in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The programme, which was developed with help from the Fraunhofer Institute for Experimental Software Engineering, has used online services to provide additional support to the local community. A digital marketplace called BestellBar has been launched to support regional retailers, while DorfNews, an online portal, has been set up to ensure citizens have easy access to news, events and community developments. The project is due to close at the end of the year, at which point its effectiveness will be evaluated.

KENYA In 2007, Kenya began preparing its Digital Villages initiative, working alongside Silicon Valley tech conglomerate Cisco to bring better connectivity to remote areas. To test the concept, the Kenya ICT Board and Cisco launched five Pilot Pasha Centres – pasha meaning ‘to inform’ in Swahili – each equipped with online access, conferencing tools, printers and training services. The ambition was for each centre to act as a kind of entrepreneurial cyber cafe. The pilot programme has now been closed, but plenty of valuable information was gathered. Subsequently, South Korean firm Samsung launched its own IT initiative in rural communities across Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

AUSTRALIA Many of the digital technologies being used to revitalise remote locations focus on diversifying the local economy away from a reliance on agriculture. However, the industry is not going to go away completely – people will always need to eat – so some companies are looking at ways in which tech can help farmers enjoy a better quality of life. Australian tech company Digital Agriculture Services is one such organisation, using machine learning and data analytics to predict and manage agricultural investment and commerce. By using the DAS Rural Intelligence Platform, individual farms can be assessed for yield, profitability can be enhanced, and new opportunities can be discovered.

can empower local entrepreneurs by providing the services they need to sustain their businesses. This could take the form of financing, communications or logistics. Marshall explained: “Eseye has seen some great examples of how [the] IoT has transformed the capabilities of rural areas, with locally generated electricity, for example, paving the way for the emergence of phone-charging shops and even stories of people charging entry to their homes in order to allow visitors to watch major sporting events. The supplier of the equipment is allowed to manage and maintain their assets because of the integration of IoT technology, which provides them with constant performance updates.” Other IoT applications are delivering critical resources sustainably. SolarNow, a Uganda-based business that aims to transform lives by providing high-quality solar energy solutions through IoT integration, is targeting households, small businesses, farmers and corporate customers. As well as bringing power to remote places, SolarNow has also delivered environmental benefits: since it was Seeking out services One of the technologies being touted as hav- founded in 2011, the company’s technoling huge potential to revamp rural areas is ogy has prevented the release of 210,000 the IoT. IoT devices can drastically improve tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Additional essential utilities are also the quality of life for people living in rural areas, whether they are based in developed being supplied. According to the World or developing countries. Most notably, they Health Organisation, a staggering 785 Poor access to financial services can also act as a factor driving people away from rural areas. In Akodara, a village of just over 1,000 inhabitants situated in India’s Gujarat state, however, this is not a problem. In 2013, the settlement was ‘adopted’ by India’s largest private bank, ICICI Bank, which quickly set about revamping the infrastructure: a Wi-Fi tower was erected to provide high-speed broadband, and a cashless payment ecosystem was installed. Even at the local market, all transactions now take place through mobile apps, debit cards or online bank transfers. Little wonder, then, that Akodara has earned the title of India’s first digital village. In remote locations across Asia, Africa and other markets, digital solutions are allowing individuals living outside of major conurbations to gain access to essential services, from banking to medicine. These are just a handful of the communities acting as test cases, trialling whether technology can attract people to a life in closer proximity to the natural world.

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granted. When they break, it is simply expected that someone will fix them as a matter of urgency. In rural areas – even those located in some of the richest economies in the world – things are very different. IoT devices, whether developed by cutting-edge start-ups or national governments, can help ensure that even indi- PEOPLE DON’T HAVE viduals living in sparsely populated areas ACCESS TO SAFE WATER are never truly cut off.

785m

million people globally still do not have access to clean, safe water. Although water systems are continually installed in developing countries, 65 percent break within the first two years as there is no sustainable method of maintaining them. To overcome this problem, Eseye, Amazon Web Services and London-based start-up eWater have created a system that uses pre-payment technology to ensure the maintenance of water systems. A major element of the solution is machine-tomachine technology that provides eWater with up-to-date information on the state of the taps, driving pre-emptive maintenance and helping to solve the widespread problem of broken water systems. “From our AnyNet Secure SIM to our multi-network SIM card, Eseye’s IoT technology allows... devices to connect via cellular networks throughout the world,” Marshall added. “Central to the success of any IoT project in a developing country is its ability to be globally connected and highly available. Furthermore, it must be straightforward for non-IoT experts to construct on a ground level. At the point of deployment, Eseye can securely and quickly enter a device into the cloud. This helps locals who are setting up the IoT equipment to easily achieve quick configuration.” In most major cities around the world, essential utilities are taken for

Don’t count your chickens Despite recent progress, challenges around getting much-needed technology to rural areas persist. Connectivity is still an issue in many places, which means other potential innovations, including telemedicine and e-banking, can’t be deployed. Maintenance of new solutions is also difficult, particularly when access to rural communities is difficult or inconsistent. Another issue concerns interoperability – making sure the various types of software and hardware all work together. “Collaboration between local suppliers is the key to long-term success for global IoT providers,” Marshall noted. “By speaking with these suppliers to create a tailored, cost-effective IoT solution, it helps to deliver the most appropriate service possible. After all, by understanding the end consumers in these rural areas and how they will benefit from IoT technology, vendors can create solutions that work out of the box.” As Marshall touched upon, the success of any technological deployment depends on its users. Dialogue with the people who currently live in the countryside will help ensure that any new deployments are fit for purpose and, more importantly, wanted. Better internet connectivity may be a relatively unobtrusive addition to rural

65%

OF WATER SYSTEMS INSTALLED IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BREAK WITHIN THE FIRST TWO YEARS

GOVERNMENTS AROUND THE WORLD ARE LOOKING INTO INNOVATIVE WAYS OF PREVENTING RURAL DEPOPULATION AND ATTRACTING NEWCOMERS TO GREENER PASTURES

life, but that might not be the case for every technological deployment. In France, supermarket chain Casino recently began leaving stores open on Sundays without any members of staff present. The move’s reception wasn’t wholly positive, with locals and unions arguing that it would put pressure on employees to work longer shifts in preparation for the unmanned hours. In Akodara, individuals involved with the recent digitalisation efforts have been keen to talk of ‘rurban’ life, which combines modernity with rural living. Perhaps that is achievable to an extent, but it will require a delicate balancing act. People move to the countryside to disconnect, not to remain pestered by the 21st century’s digital hum. It’s also important to remember that newfangled gadgets alone might not be enough to attract people back to the countryside. Moving somewhere remote is daunting and a lack of information is often the first cause of reticence. In Spain, for example, Pueblos Vivos, or the Living Villages project, offers advice and guidance to anyone looking to move to rural parts of the country’s Aragon region. Services like these could prove just as useful as any app or sensor in convincing people to give up the convenience of city life. Living in the countryside is not for everyone, but governments should do more to ensure that individuals do not have to move to the city out of necessity. It is true that digital technologies are once again making isolated locations viable places to call home by providing remote working opportunities, better connectivity and more sustainable energy options, but a shift in mindset regarding how rural areas are viewed still needs to occur. Rural spaces have traditionally been seen as outmoded relics of a simpler time. If more of them are to survive and flourish, this needs to change. Last year, executives from Microsoft, LinkedIn and Ripple signed up to an initiative that aims to bring high-paying technology jobs to rural Iowa, US. More proposals like this are needed to convince current and prospective residents that provincial locations represent more than just a sepiatinged ideal of how life used to be – they can be forward-looking too. tne 29

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y g lo o n h c te Contents:

30 Healthcare 36 Communications 38 Diamonds 40 Circular Economy 42 Software

Taking it to heart

Bear bile has been used for centuries in traditional Chinese medicine, but it remains a controversial practice in the West. The synthetic version could be a game-changer for the organ transplant process, writes Elizabeth Matsangou

For thousands of years, practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine have used bear bile as a natural treatment for a number of ailments. A digestive fluid that’s produced by the liver and then stored in the gallbladder, it’s used “principally for reducing fever and inflammation, detoxifying the liver [and] resolving gallstones”, explained Dave Garshelis, a wildlife research scientist for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and one of the world’s leading bear experts. He also noted that the substance has anti-inflammatory properties. Unsurprisingly, there is a great deal of controversy surrounding the collection of bear bile, which occurs via two methods. Though it is illegal in many parts of the world, the first method involves hunting wild bears. Once caught, they are drained of their bile and often used for other body parts too. The other method involves bear farming: in this case, bears are kept in cages and hooked up to drainage tubes and catheters for months at a time. Many are kept in captivity for their entire lives. “The farming of bile was actually designed in North Korea, but it moved into China in the 1980s,” Garshelis told The New Economy. “From the standpoint of a communist government, it was designed as a way to satisfy the medical demand for bear bile. So they felt that they had a country of people of which a large proportion use traditional medicine, and there wasn’t actually enough bear bile to go around… They

couldn’t supply it, and so they were trying to find a way to develop a larger supply, and that’s how this farming came to be.”

Heart transplants That bear bile has some incredible properties is hard to deny. In fact, it’s something that Paul Iaizzo, a professor in the departments of surgery, integrative biology and physiology at the University of Minnesota, has been examining for more than 20 years. “We have been studying hibernating black bears… and what’s amazing about these bears [is that] for four to six months they can elicit extremely low heart rates and they remain mildly hypothermic – their body temperature goes down to only 35 or 36 degrees centigrade [but] they lose very [few] functional abilities,” Iaizzo said. “The heart rates can be as low as five or 10 beats per minute, and yet at any time they can be aroused and elicit a ‘flight or fight’ response… to defend themselves against predators, which is really amazing. Further, they lose very little to no skeletal muscle or cardiac masses or functions; that is again during this period of anywhere from four to six months where they’re in a state of total starvation and taking little or no fluids.” Taking this understanding and applying it to modern medicine, Iaizzo and his team are currently using synthetic bear bile – a high dose of fatty acids and delta opioid agonists, which are upregulated in hibernating bears – in a bid to improve

the success rates of surgical outcomes and organ transplants. Essentially, in the same way that the unique blend of chemicals helps sustain a bear’s organs from going into atrophy during the hibernation period, it can be used to protect human organs during the transplant process. “Routinely, our laboratory will isolate large mammalian hearts for reanimation,” Iaizzo told The New Economy. “We’ll often precondition the organs, and we have been able to show enhanced viabilities if we do that. If we use a preconditioning of delta opioids, fatty acids, bear bile acids or some combination of these, we have elicited improved functions immediately after reanimation and for extended periods.” This could be a game-changer for organ transplants. At present, there is only a narrow window of around six hours in which a heart can be removed from a donor and transplanted into a recipient. Synthetic bear bile, however, could theoretically increase this by up to 24 hours, meaning that a heart could be transported to pretty much anywhere on the planet. By increasing the number of organs available, thousands of people waiting for heart transplants could be saved. It could also help with the procedure itself. Transplanting a heart involves removing it from the donor, packing and icing it, and oftentimes transporting it to another location. During this time, ischaemia, where the organ is prevented

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Healthcare

Natural versus synthetic

from getting enough oxygen, can occur. But Iaizzo believes that preconditioning the heart with these upregulated hibernation factors from bears could limit ischaemic damage. This is particularly crucial for organ recipients who have other medical issues, aside from cardiac problems. “If I can minimise the consequences of ischaemic damage and put that heart – or any organ – in that recipient, it should function better immediately, it might decrease complications and the ICU [intensive care unit] stays, and [lead] to long-term better outcomes,” Iaizzo said. “So this is what we’re pretty interested in.”

Muscle atrophy There’s potential for other areas too, particularly in terms of muscle weakness and patients who have been immobilised during intensive care. As Iaizzo explained, despite various methods to help alleviate this, patients can fall into hypercatabolic states, in which they can lose up to 50 percent of their muscle mass within just a few weeks. “And when that happens, very typically they’ll end up on the ventilator, and if that happens the outcomes are usually not good,” he added. As such, Iaizzo is examining how bears manage to maintain high levels of muscle function and lose minimal skeletal and cardiac muscle masses while immobilised during hibernation, and how this can be applied to such patients. His research starts

6 hours Current window of opportunity for performing a heart transplant

24 hours Potential increase in transplant window using synthetic bear bile

with looking at the cascade of hormones that is released during hibernation – also known as ‘hibernation induction triggers’. “We’ve started out collaborating with Peter Oeltgen at the University of Kentucky… He had been looking at the plasma from hibernators and looking at these molecules, and showed that they had specific properties that could be protective of organs and muscle against ischaemia,” Iaizzo said. “And so we then started looking more into that and [bears] actually have increased levels of these hormones during hibernation, as well as increases in their circulating bile acids and fatty acids. So then we’re trying to tease apart which is most critical – is it the circulating hormones, bile acids or the high levels of fatty acids or a required combination? And so, if we could figure that out, there might [be] greater applications to human medicine relative to patients in the ICU or organ transplantation, or just cardiac surgery in general.”

While synthetic bear bile may well do little to reduce demand for the real thing, it is currently being explored for some potentially phenomenal developments in western medicine

Iaizzo and his team are doing some fascinating work with synthetic bear bile – using lessons learned from nature to improve the survival rates of those awaiting heart transplants is nothing short of extraordinary. It also demonstrates that there is viability to using synthetic bear bile as opposed to the real thing, which, considering the methods employed and the sources themselves, is inarguably cruel. But whether this lesson will translate to those still poaching and farming bears, or those selling and using bile, is unlikely. Traditional Chinese medicine involves a deep-seated belief system for the millions of people who use such treatments. “They really believe in a balance in taking their medicine… and that the bear bile itself, with all of its components… has a more balanced effect on your body than just what is considered to be the ‘active ingredient’ – a compound called ursodeoxycholic acid, which can be created in a lab,” Garshelis explained. The notion of using natural remedies is fundamental in traditional Chinese medicine, and this is where synthetic alternatives fall short. “There is the belief that the bile that comes from a bear, which is composed of many different compounds that have yet to be synthesised, is just inherently better than artificial bile, where these substances are absent,” Garshelis added. While synthetic bear bile may well do little to reduce demand for the real thing, it is currently being explored for some potentially phenomenal developments in western medicine. It also highlights the possibilities available to scientists when they study the countless facets of the natural world. “Maybe we should go back to these more natural remedies and look back to the past,” Iaizzo said. “For example, many have been used in eastern medicine for thousands of years.” Indeed, imagine what treasures of information there are out there to be discovered – or rediscovered, as the case may be. tne 31

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technology

Healthcare

Tackling the social determinants of health With inequity in healthcare and economics creating numerous societal challenges, we can no longer wait to address the imbalance and provide innovative solutions, write John Matthew Douglas, Founder of iPressForward, Mark Luhovy MD, COO of PhenoMx, and Mark Punyanitya, Co-Founder and CEO of PhenoMx In 1948, shortly after the end of the Second World War, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was formed. This institution was created as a means to coordinate international health efforts, defining health as “a state of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing, and not merely the absence of disease”. On March 25, 1965, ahead of the second national convention of the Medical Committee for Human Rights in Chicago, Illinois, Dr Martin Luther King Jr proclaimed: “Of all the forms of inequality, injustice in healthcare is the most shocking and inhumane.” Just 13 years later, in 1978, the WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund convened at the International Conference on Primary Healthcare held

in Alma-Ata. For the first time, healthcare challenges facing developing countries were seriously examined, resulting in the Alma-Ata Declaration. This declaration recognised the need for primary care in all nations and established a demand for equitable healthcare access. However, in 2019, equitable access to healthcare still remains a significant challenge, both within the US and around the world. The social determinants of health (SDOH) were created by the WHO with the aim of identifying the main causes of global health crises. Providing equitable healthcare is hindered, compounded and exacerbated by income inequality, with poorer patients among the most at risk for receiving inadequate healthcare. This

group – which accounts for the largest instances of avoidable healthcare costs – is affected by increasing rates of chronic disease, and also comprises healthcare patients who are in greatest need of support as defined by the SDOH. According to the landmark study Beyond Health Care: New Directions to a Healthier America by the Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, an individual’s zip code in the US is a more accurate indication of future health outcomes than genetics are. Global healthcare delivery is taking its lead from studies such as Harvard’s, as well as The Economic Burden of Health Inequalities in the United States, published by the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the University of Maryland. The study claims: “More than 30 percent of direct medical costs faced by African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans were excess costs due to health inequities – more than $230bn over a fouryear period. And when you add the indi-

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rect cost of these inequities over the same period, the tab comes to $1.24trn.” What was once an ethical debate on the ways to tackle poverty – largely through improving housing, food, transportation or employee health and wellness – addressing SDOH has now primarily become a matter of healthcare economics. Health interventions for populations, once deployed only by necessity, can now be considered a secure and direct way to inspire innovative healthcare delivery solutions aimed at improving SDOH. Chief among the solutions being rapidly scaled and deployed in response to this issue are software as a service (SaaS) technologies, such as TAVHealth, Healthify, Unite Us, Aunt Bertha and NowPow. These systems will be rolled out within the healthcare IT domain, but demonstrate promise for having a real-world impact for populations at risk. The common denominator among SaaS solutions is their ability to strengthen the connection between patients and communi-

30%

Additional costs for African Americans and Hispanics due to inequitable healthcare

$1.7trn Amount SDOH could reduce healthcare spending by

ty resources. Their objective is to determine, measure and track when a social determinant has been addressed across the patient’s delivered care. As a result, hospital readmissions across the US – currently a more than $17bn annual systemic cost – could be markedly decreased. Reducing the financial burden to hospitals while simultaneously improving clinical outcomes for patients should be the aim of emerging SDOH SaaS technology companies: in doing so, tech companies would be moving the needle on SDOH in a more cost-effective direction. Nevertheless, in preventing, detecting and providing early diagnoses for chronic diseases, SDOH SaaS tech companies fall short. There is a huge opportunity to target and address populations and their community health, which remains a key factor of the global healthcare crisis.

What was once an ethical debate on the ways to tackle poverty has now primarily become a matter of healthcare economics

Social Determinants of Health, which gathered the opinions of healthcare professionals and screened patient populations for social determinants by prioritising their responses: “High-risk patients (those with two or more chronic conditions) are the leading patient populations targeted for [SDOH] screenings.” High-risk patients with two or more conditions made up 42 percent of the survey respondents. Patients using Medicaid Surveying the damage According to the 2019 Health Intelligence comprised 37 percent, those with behavNetwork survey Healthcare Benchmarks: ioural health conditions represented 36 » 33

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technology

Healthcare

Building housing and providing food for every American in need, as well as addressing other SDOH issues, is simply not sustainable

percent, low-income patients 32 percent, and the dual eligible made up 31 percent. Meanwhile, disease-specific patients made up 31 percent and those on Medicare represented 29 percent of respondents. Disabled patients made up 24 percent, the uninsured were 22 percent, and infants and children were 18 percent. Finally, others made up just eight percent of respondents. The above online survey may be corroborated by the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions, which, with roughly 300 hospitals and health systems in the US, intends to identify current health-related social needs, activities and investments, as well as the potential future direction of the industry. Deloitte’s efforts were aimed at better understanding how hospitals and health systems are operating, along with developing an insight into the challenges they face within the larger healthcare ecosystem. Interviews took place at hospitals, health-plan meetings and non-profit community organisations. Two key takeaways from the study were that hospitals are screening patients based on their social needs, and that the healthcare system is shifting towards value-based care, which may spur more investment for tackling the health problems associated with social needs. Hospital investments vary, and sustainable funding may be a challenge. The healthcare stakeholders interviewed think that addressing health-related social needs is the ‘right thing to do’, and expect that alignment with value-based care will continue to encourage partnerships and produce innovative solutions.

Connecting the dots Americans from all demographic groups face challenges to fulfil basic needs for housing, transportation, food and social needs, all of which can negatively impact physical and mental wellbeing when absent. Building housing and providing food for every American in need, as well as addressing other SDOH issues, is simply not sustainable. In summation, it is clear from the research on SDOH that the debate over whether social factors are fundamental causes of health and disease is essentially over. A large body of research currently shows that society can make you sick or can promote your health, depending on a wide variety of factors. With this direct relationship now uncovered and agreed upon, the next step is therefore to define the causes and consequences of this phenomenon. A standard of care brought forward by the WHO would likely transform personal health, systemic healthcare and healthcare delivery, as the capabilities of real-time physical health data is garnered using a personalised digital physical exam screening (PDPES). This MRI scan non-invasively images full-body or organ-specific

Social determinants of health MAIN FACTORS Environment Education Neighbourhood Food Transportation Community

Healthcare Healthcare policy Insurance premiums Workplace health and wellness

SECONDARY FACTORS Inequity Digital, education and literacy divide Economic uncertainty GDP, economic stability and healthcare inequity Public health crisis Underserved public schools Upstream intervention Phenotyping, value-based care and lifestyle medicine

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Case study Thailand Centre of Excellence for Life Sciences As part of its Thailand 4.0 initiative, the Thai Government aims to make the Asian country a world-class provider for pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and medical care. The creation of a comprehensive health city or medicine city could bring together new innovations while maintaining international standards. Collaboration will occur across hospitals, research centres, accommodation providers and tourism services.

tissue, requiring no contrast mediums or radiation, thus offering unparalleled safety for patients, including for paediatric, renal, diabetic and elderly patient populations. When employed in addition to pointof-care physical exams, PDPES may unveil the onset of chronic disease, occult pathology or disease progression, and could potentially transform global healthcare. This technology also has the capacity to circumvent issues of health disparity among diverse populations: for example, the ability to promote pre-emptive imaging and catch diseases before they progress to life-threatening stages could allow for earlier intervention by physicians, who could then produce patient management plans at the first stages of the disease. This view is shared by the WHO, which stated in a presentation entitled Increasing Access to Diagnostic Imaging in Developing Countries: the Asha Jyoti Mobile Clinic: “Diagnostic imaging plays an important role not only in identifying pathology and tracking the progression of a disease, but also preventing disease via screening.” Imaging innovations in healthcare will take SDOH strategy to the next level,

Dubbed the Medicopolis and Health Informatics programme, the health city will address business development strategies for the biomedical sciences industry. This programme accelerates the exchange of new and innovative technologies between targeted partners, offering Thai people numerous benefits. By strengthening research and development for medical equipment and health services, Thailand is now more selfsufficient, reducing its reliance on imported medical supplies. The Medicopolis programme also promotes the local manufacturing of medical products and reduces the country’s medical expenditures. By combining recently available technologies into a compliant and seamless workflow, a full supply chain can result in innovative solutions, such as the capacity to deliver a fully customised set of dental implants for patients in remote locations – something that would have been infeasible in years gone by.

marrying upstream care with increased access to the patients with the greatest need. Imaging has the potential to be invaluable for all patients within the health continuum, whether downstream, midstream or upstream.

Prevention is better than a cure Individuals, communities, health insurers and public health more generally are most effectively influenced beyond the walls of hospitals. Community organisations connected by SaaS technology currently only scratch the surface in terms of early disease intervention. Healthcare providers must go further by investigating the sources of the disease. One way to do so is by developing technology that unveils health issues caused by lifetime or generational exposure to unaddressed SDOH factors before diseases develop further, thereby improving treatment and preventing the costs to the healthcare sector associated with developed diseases. This is the invaluable potential of the personalised digital physical exam. For example, US hospital emergency department (ED) physician culture and inadvertent human error may undermine SDOH and cause avoidable hospital readmissions. Federally mandated procedures are often altered and patient history screenings are shortened in crowded EDs. This may be a new norm within US urban hospitals, and highlights the importance of mitigating and implementing a PDPES alongside standard health screenings within EDs. In the wake of increased rates of chronic disease and acute illness around the globe, healthcare providers and policymakers cannot wait any longer. Evidence suggests that currently available quantitative imaging technology capable of deploying innovative precision medicine – i.e. the personalised digital physical exam – when used in conjunction with traditional bedside physical exams may bend the curve on chronic disease, health and healthcare inequity, the health and wellness digital divide, physician burnout, and total cost of care. This is known as the ‘quadruple aim’ – a robust, upstream SDOH solution. The costs to individuals and the system of putting off this innovation are simply too great. We cannot wait any longer. tne 35

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technology

Communications Similarly, data streams from closed sources that don’t converge in a single place can also cause issues. At Trilliant, we’ve been connecting critical infrastructure for almost 20 years. We understand data can be challenging, but there are ways to make managing it easier. Our clients have found that data management from various sensors has grown into a key part of their business operations, even uncovering untapped revenue streams. Because our platform can bring together disparate devices, data can be managed in one place, no matter what kind of technology it’s streaming from.

Smart money

Smart cities: thinking ahead Smart city projects are on the rise, but remain small in scale due to networking challenges. With further investment, these difficulties can be overcome and cities’ benefits can be realised, writes Ryan Gerbrandt, Managing Director of Global Internet of Things and Smart Cities at Trilliant Most smart city projects start small and focus on a vertical market – street lighting, for example, is a typical entry point. While this is one of the most commonly used smart city technologies, Trilliant has assisted in the implementation of additional tools, such as environmental monitoring, traffic management and enhanced security. Trilliant is making smart cities a reality by creating solutions that solve challenges associated with the compatibility of disparate technologies, enabling them to share information with each other and with non-scalable solutions. Because we approach smart cities differently, we’re able to deliver solutions that are open, flexible and future-proof. To do this, Trilliant enables and provides consultative services to establish a network before installing any devices. With the right digital infrastructure in place, our cities have the architectural support to create smart cities for the future. Long term, this approach is more sustainable than simply piecemealing solutions together one by one.

Delivering value While it’s true that smart cities can deliver huge benefits, they are difficult to establish. Beyond capital challenges, getting projects past the pilot stage can be a real hurdle. Many cities already recognise the benefits of smart technology, but city leaders are challenged to not prioritise its development over other important projects, like affordable housing or school funding. The question of city funding and investment doesn’t have an easy answer, but it is something many cities across the world are facing. Cities that do implement smart technologies are often under pressure to deliver long-term value creation. Solutions from different vertical markets use proprietary systems, but without a network solution like the one Trilliant provides, cities can face a major connectivity challenge. By not considering how they can harness data from multiple systems, cities can miss out on the long-term value that smart-city technology can provide.

Cities that do implement smart technologies are often under pressure to deliver longterm value creation

A good communications platform is incredibly important, as it opens doors for cities to find the best possible solutions for their unique situations. Trilliant’s platform uses a standards-based application programming interface to surface data in a single pane, giving places the ability to tailor their smart city to the needs of their citizens. We believe in working with customers to create practical solutions for their energy and smart-city needs. When considering short and long-term returns on investment, cities should first invest in their connectivity infrastructure. This is where Trilliant helps them stand apart. We support the technology – lighting, sensors and CCTV cameras, for example – but also have a critical understanding of the infrastructure required to make them operate at peak performance. Having a structure in place to leverage this technology allows for investments in the future that are managed by the city. Through ownership of things like data and the network, cities can develop both direct and indirect revenue-generating opportunities. At the moment, however, a lot of cities don’t appear to be interested in acquiring this extra revenue. In many markets, such as the US, there has been very little capital prioritisation for smart-city projects. The US market is missing out on a huge opportunity to prioritise the type of infrastructure that can facilitate smart cities. Until there’s prioritisation from the public and private sectors, consumers will continue to buy individual systems without a long-term plan on how to manage them. Although some smart-city opportunities are being embraced, many more remain underutilised. tne

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B18DJ_001_Z04_64877.pdf

Why Vitoria-Gasteiz? CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION CENTRE

Vitoria-Gasteiz, capital of the Basque Country and 2012 European Green Capital is a modern, green, friendly, medieval, and surprising city with a special charm. The Europa Congress Palace, awarded the LEED Gold certification by the U.S. Green Building Council, is a modern example of “green architecture”, ideal for events dealing with environmental issues. We look forward to welcoming you very soon!

technology

Diamonds

Diamond cut Diamonds, thanks to their numerous physical properties, have more uses than just jewellery. Today, researchers are pushing the boundaries of their application within the manufacturing and tech industries, writes Victor Tabeling, Sales and Marketing Manager at Applied Diamond The jewellery and tools markets, dominated by tradespeople in Asia and Europe, are not the only buyers of diamonds – there is growing research into their other properties and uses. Studies in the fields of particle physics, electronics, optics and communications are pushing the known applications of the material. Diamond is famously a very hard material, but it also has the highest thermal conductivity of any other substance, is not chemically reactive and is radiation-hard. This combination of attributes makes diamonds ideal for environments that would degrade other materials.

Durability and versatility Thermal conductivity makes diamonds extremely useful for electronics – in fact, no other semiconducting material comes close to its level of thermal conductivity. Due to their highly effective use in this field, diamonds can offer ways to manage the increased heat that comes with more powerful computers, allowing Moore’s Law to be maintained – the notion that the capacity of microchips in computers will double every two years, but the price of computers will halve. Manufacturing some of these electronic components from diamond is an intriguing way to get around limitations in computing power. Proven in applications such as solid-state lasers and LEDs, diamond is currently used in cases when the hardware in question needs to be portable and light – where the volume, weight

and cost of standard electronic hardware materials make portability infeasible. Diamond is also useful for radiation detection because of its band gap, chemical stability and radiation hardness. As helium-3 becomes more scarce and expensive, diamond becomes a more attractive material for neutron detection in nuclear fission and fusion. Since it is radiation-hard and extremely durable, radiation detectors made with diamond can be placed in previously inaccessible areas for experiments and data collection. Additionally, the material’s resistance to heat, vibration and humidity sets it apart from other available substances.

In addition, nitrogen vacancies (nitrogen atoms occurring in place of carbon atoms) in diamond make the material valuable for researchers studying quantum computing. Nitrogen vacancy centres can be ‘spun’ and turned on and off to imitate electrical components in computing processes. What’s more, the thermal properties of diamonds allow experiments to be conducted at room temperature, thereby significantly lowering the cost of experiments by eliminating the need for cryogenic lab conditions.

New applications Laboratory-grown diamonds are becoming more common and widely used for research – soon, the material will be a necessity for many scientific industries to experiment and innovate. What’s more, the jewellery market is expected to grow as consumers become more comfortable with lab-grown diamonds as opposed to traditionally mined ones. Applied Diamond develops new applications for diamonds in two ways: the first is our research for the Department of Energy, where we aim to mitigate the engineering and material challenges of synchrotrons (particle accelerators) in the US. The second way is by building diamond slabs or bespoke assembly components for customers with unique demands. Our experience with this challenging material enables us to first build a prototype, which then assists our customers with deciding if they want to scale up further production based on the initial result. Through such applications, we are helping to push the boundaries of what’s possible with incredibly versatile diamonds. tne

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technology

Circular Economy

The plastic paradox As consumer demand increases and more companies pledge to use recycled materials, a plastic paradox has surfaced. Now, more plastic needs to be collected to meet the rising demand for eco-friendly materials, writes Volker Rehrmann, Head of Circular Economy at TOMRA Plastic is a valuable material with good versatility. Its value, however, is lost if it’s not treated correctly throughout its life cycle. While consumer awareness grows, governments continue to set regulations to reduce plastic consumption, and companies around the globe are responding with commitments to use recycled materials in their products and packaging. However, this increased demand has created a plastic paradox: there isn’t enough plastic being collected and recycled to meet fresh demand and preserve the planet’s non-renewable resources. A resource revolution is needed to solve this problem. The planet’s resources are limited, and a new strategy is required to create a circular economy.

Rethinking the system The amount of plastic waste being produced is growing rapidly, and society’s failure to return plastic into a closed loop is having a negative impact on the environment and on our health. The current linear model means the end of life for plastics is mismanaged, and a valuable resource is lost in the process. Consumer expectations for recycled plastic have increased due to the wave of information relating to the harm that misused plastic is causing. In response,

governments and companies are making pledges to use recycled plastic. EU member states, for example, have signed several legislative proposals on waste, including an aim to hit a recycling rate of 70 percent for packaging waste by 2030. The European Commission recently announced that plastic drinking bottles must include a minimum of 35 percent recycled content by 2025, while member states must collect and recycle 90 percent of beverage containers. Fast-moving consumer goods companies like PepsiCo and Unilever have pledged to increase recycled content in their packaging to 25 percent by 2025, while German company Werner and Mertz has shown even greater ambition, aiming to use 100 percent recycled materials for 65 percent of its packaged products by 2025. These pledges are ambitious and to be admired, but without a system in place to collect and sort the plastic, the paradox remains. According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, of the 78 million tonnes of plastic produced annually, 40 percent goes to landfill, 32 percent becomes litter and harms nature and 14 percent is incinerated. While 14 percent is collected for recycling, only two percent of this remains in the circular economy.

The paradox is amplified by the fact that eight percent of the plastic we do collect is downgraded, meaning it can only be used once more and then does not remain in the circular economy. Essentially, the entire value is lost. If companies want to switch to recycled materials, a considerable amount of recycled plastic is needed, which is currently not available on the market. Plastic manufacturers need a constant supply of recycled material; to create a circular economy, the system needs to change.

Revitalising recycling If society is going to meet its recycling ambitions, we need to catalyse the circular economy. At the heart of this is the need to view plastic differently – not as waste, but as a valuable resource that is worth collecting. We need to make sure plastic stays in a closed loop through better management of its life cycle. Everybody knows the adage about square pegs not fitting in round holes. The same can be said for a linear design for a proposed circular economy: no matter how you try and force it, it won’t work. Plastic packaging must, of course, maintain its current function to protect and communicate information about the product inside. If packaging isn’t fit for purpose, it can’t protect the product it is designed for, and the environmental and financial costs only increase. Manufacturers must design packaging for the circular economy in a way that allows it to be easily recycled by not mixing it with different types of plastic, making the recycling process needlessly more complicated. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s 2017 New Plastics Economy report suggested that 30 percent of plastic packaging

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Plastic has become public enemy number one, but it doesn’t need to be: if the management of plastic were to be improved, consumers would value its versatility more

quality. Using the best available technology for the processes of sorting, washing, extrusion and decontamination of the materials will be essential to achieve the desired quality levels for reuse. Increased use of recycled plastics reduces the demand for new material in many applications, thereby closing the loop further.

needed fundamental redesign and materials science innovation. A further 20 percent could incorporate better design for reuse. Using recycled materials saves resources and lowers carbon emissions. It takes 60 percent less energy to manufacture recycled polyethylene terephthalate plastic bottles compared with bottles from new plastic, but despite this fact, not enough recycled materials are finding their way back into a closed loop. Manufacturers and brand owners with commitments to use recycled content must optimise and identify ways to increase the amounts of recycled material they use if they are to meet their targets.

Creating value High-profile campaigns in the media have brought plastic waste to the forefront of our collective environmental conscience. Plastic has become public enemy number one, but it needn’t be: if the management of plastic was improved, consumers would value its versatility more. We must remove single-use plastics that belong to the linear economy. There needs to be a collection system – possibly enforced via legislation – that encourages and incentivises consumers to put the plastic we use into the closed loop. Such a system would help to educate consumers, change habits and transform industry while ultimately providing plastic with greater value. Deposit return schemes (DRS) are proven systems that encourage consumers to recycle their plastic drinks containers and increase collection rates, while also maintaining the purity of the material. Eight EU nations now have a DRS, with Germany leading the way with a 98 percent return rate. In Lithuania, TOMRA’s innovative reverse vend-

A circular economy for all

Plastic collection in numbers:

78m

Tonnes of plastic packaging produced annually

40%

of plastic collected annually goes to landfill

of plastic collected annually is recycled in a closed loop

ing machines enable the automated collection of beverage containers and saw collection rates soar from 34 percent in 2016 to 92 percent by 2018. In the current linear system, plastic with value is being lost. Mixed-waste collections, which include plastics that could be recycled in the same way as those collected separately, often end up incinerated or sent to landfill. This needs to be remedied, and the technology to do so already exists. Optical sorting machinery, currently used in countries like the Netherlands and Norway, enables plastic to be recovered from mixed-waste streams and kept in the closed loop. The recycling industry must adopt better technology to prove to brands that materials recovered from mixedwaste streams can meet their requirements. Once collection rates increase, it must be recycled at the highest quality to make sure it can be used in new products. Quantity and quality are needed to solve the plastic paradox. As the quantity of recycled material in the loop increases, the mindset of the industry must turn to

The plastic paradox can be solved, which is why TOMRA has set ambitious targets to accelerate the implementation of the circular economy and drive the industry forward. We aim to increase the global collection of recyclable plastic from 14 percent to 40 percent, as well as increase the recycling of plastics in closed loops from two percent to 30 percent by 2030. Redesign and recycling will go some way to achieving this, but the main challenge is to work together to improve plastic collection and change the system. We cannot do this on our own; a collaborative value chain across industries is what’s needed. We are dedicated to increasing the recycling rates of plastic and many other materials, and have been developing solutions since 1972 to do this. Our newly formed Circular Economy team is devoted to enabling the circular economy by working with manufacturers and retailers. The desire from governments, companies and consumers to find the solution to the plastic paradox and plastic waste is present and growing. TOMRA’s resource revolution calls on everyone to recognise plastic as the valuable resource that it is, and use it to catalyse the circular economy. In doing so, we hope to contribute to improving the health of both the planet and society. tne 41

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technology

Software

Forging a green alliance

Sanjay Brahmawar

how smart data Can Safeguard the Planet For 50 years, Software AG has delivered sustainable technology to organisations around the world. Recognising the challenges created by climate change, it’s important to help customers find ways to turn their data into a resource that promotes sustainability, writes Sanjay Brahmawar, CEO of Software AG One of the major dilemmas facing the world today is how the West can reduce its carbon footprint to offset the developing world’s industrialisation and increased carbon footprint. Digitalisation could provide some of the answers. Through the Internet of Things (IoT), digitalisation gives organisations the ability to collect valuable data from anywhere and in real time. This data can be used to make better-informed decisions and control processes, which in turn can minimise resource usage or waste. The IoT delivers smarter, incremental solutions, as opposed to a ‘big bang’ approach to environmental change, where industries are expected to make sweeping changes overnight. An example of this is the development of the hybrid electric car – something being driven incrementally by industry, politics and, crucially, the market. In terms of sustainability, I’m not strictly talking about the engine: the data from devices like cars provides valuable information about how it is driven, in what conditions, its maintenance requirements, its consumption, its design, live traffic and alternate route information – multiple factors that can help minimise environmental

impact. For example, by 2021, more than 5,000 London buses will be fitted with STW Technic’s TC1 Telematics Controller to monitor and analyse bus emissions in real time, providing valuable data on carbon emissions for future study and action. This could have a major impact in the city, which recently introduced ultra-low emission zones to improve air quality for its eight million residents. Water management is another example of how to reduce resource usage and wastage. In England and Wales, 3.3 billion litres of water are lost due to leaky pipes every 24 hours – an amount that could sustain more than 20 million people for an entire day. Water management is a top priority in cities and remote areas alike, and Software AG is helping to create a solution that works across all geographies. In partnership with Telstra and Busselton Water, we are developing the Cumulocity IoT-based solution in Western Australia. The project combines digital meters, dedicated pressure sensors and Telstra’s NB-IoT network which, along with our IoT analytics solution, will deliver an accurate and effective water management service.

Sustainable development in numbers:

3.3bn

Litres of water lost each day in England and Wales

6,800 Number of wind turbines set for software upgrade by Software AG

No single company can provide a perfect one-size-fits-all solution to every digital requirement, but a diverse IoT network can go a long way. This is the type of industrial strategy the EU excels at: collaboration at the highest level combined with individual solutions for individual problems. At Software AG, we have worked with Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Dell and many other firms to remain at the forefront of the next industrial revolution over the coming decade. The potential of industry collaboration is enormous. If power suppliers and individual consumers would work together to create smart grids, they could achieve a dramatic decline in greenhouse gases. Smart grids could help recover some of the six percent of transmitted power that ‘disappears’ in Europe and the US every year. Forecasts show that by 2030, the EU could generate 50 percent of its power from renewable sources. Smart meters will be vital in making this transition, along with the adoption of more IoT technology, such as smart buildings. We are also working in collaboration with the Nordex Group, a leading supplier of wind turbines. Nordex is set to upgrade its 6,800 wind turbines using our IoT platform, which will provide clients with full-service monitoring to optimise the performance of their wind turbines and maximise their investments. The interest in the possibilities of the IoT is there. We are in constant conversation with various organisations about how we can help them better implement IoT technologies, whether it’s for medical research or streamlining manufacturing. The most important thing is for IoT technology to offer freedom through adaptable automation, reducing day-to-day human involvement. Software must be independent and enable companies to change quickly so they can adopt emerging technologies and ensure maximum customer retention for years to come. We will continue to offer sustainability by providing freedom of choice, freedom to innovate and freedom to adapt. Software AG recently celebrated a half century of transforming customers’ lives through innovative products. Today, we are recognised as one of the most visionary companies in the industrial IoT space. Everything the company has learned on its journey to date is utilised every day to lead our IoT software developments. This approach will serve us and our customers well as we look ahead to the next 50 years. tne

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N18ON_008_Z01_67521.pdf

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N19ND_044_C09_06677.pdf

A SORRY

8chan, a controversial imageboard linked to numerous mass shootings, disappeared from the internet in August after being cut off by its network provider. While many lauded Cloudflare for its symbolic stand against violence, others raised concerns about the political nature of the decision and its potentially detrimental implications for free speech, writes Sophie Perryer Âť

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U N TA N G L I N G T H E W E B

n August 5, Matthew Prince made one of the most significant regulatory decisions in the history of the internet: he removed the controversial imageboard 8chan, affecting more than one million daily users. Prince is not a politician. He is not a regulator. Rather, he is the CEO of Cloudflare, a web infrastructure company that provides security services. Following a spate of violent and deadly incidents associated with 8chan, Prince chose to revoke Cloudflare’s service provision to the platform. This left the site vulnerable to cyberattacks, causing it to go down within a matter of hours. Prince’s decision was not backed by any legal ruling; as an individual, he has no regulatory authority. By dint of his job title alone, he had the ability to close the site down – a power he exercised in the belief it would prevent mass violence. While some lauded the moralistic valour of his decision, others claimed he had overstepped the mark, employing a level of control typically reserved for governments. Regardless, Prince’s actions ignited a spirited debate over the nature of ownership and censorship in the age of the internet.

A violent history Pronounced ‘infinitychan’ by its users, 8chan has been linked to numerous acts of cyber violence in its six-year history. Established in 2013 by US software developer Fredrick Brennan, the site was envisaged as a successor to popular imageboard 4chan, which Brennan believed had lost sight of its founding mission of facilitating uninhibited discourse. “[On 8chan], anyone can say what they want and mean,” Brennan told the Daily Dot in 2014, adding that he viewed his site as “a free-speech-friendly 4chan alternative”. 8chan’s users certainly took advantage of their newfound freedom. Within months of its foundation, the site had become a cesspit of racism, sexism, harassment and other forms of criminality, in spite of its single global rule: “Do not post, request or link to any content that is illegal in the United States of America and do not create boards with the sole purpose of posting or spreading such content.” In 2014, the site played host to Gamergate, an online harassment campaign aimed at developer Zoë Quinn, following the movement’s expulsion from rival 4chan. The attack was initiated following the release of the game Depression Quest, which drew on Quinn’s experiences of depression. Having received positive reviews from critics, Quinn was soon made the target of rape and death threats from 8chan users who were dissatisfied with what they considered to be a “political” intrusion into gamer culture. Said users later extended the harassment campaign to other female developers whose sociopolitical beliefs they disapproved of. Reports are rife, too, of sexualised images of children and links to hardcore child pornography being posted to the site. These include photographs of toddlers and young chil46

Matthew Prince, CEO of Cloudflare

dren dressed in swimwear or revealing underwear, posing provocatively for the camera. More disturbing are the adult hands, reportedly visible in some images, guiding their subjects into position. Brennan has stated previously in interviews that he is aware of the presence of paedophilic content on 8chan but views it as a necessary side effect of upholding free speech. Prior to this year, violence incited on 8chan tended to stay within the realms of cyberspace. That changed in March, however, when Brenton Zoë Quinn was the Harrison Tarrant allegedly used the target of a harassment platform to share an anti-immigrant campaign on 8chan manifesto and link to a Facebook Live stream. The latter allowed users to watch as mass shootings unfolded at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, killing 51 people and injuring 50 others. The manifesto, which was widely shared online and quoted in the international press, detailed a hate-fuelled, alt-right ideology based on ethnic homogeneity. Tarrant has pleaded not guilty to all charges and a trial is scheduled for May 2020.

Repeat offender In the aftermath of the Christchurch attacks, as social media platforms such as YouTube and Twitter struggled to prevent the horrifying video footage from circulating, a barrage of voices called for 8chan to be shut down. But action was not forthcoming, not least due to the difficulty of identifying who was responsible for – or capable of – shuttering the site. Brennan had ceded control of 8chan to an internet entrepreneur named Jim Watkins in January 2015, meaning he was no longer in a position to take action, although he

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TO INFINIT Y AND

beyond: October 2013 Having grown disillusioned with the imageboard 4chan for what he perceived to be an increase in regulation and surveillance, US developer Fredrick Brennan conceptualised his own site while on a psychedelic mushroom trip. 8chan was eventually launched as a “free-speechfriendly 4chan alternative”.

Fredrick Brennan, founder of 8chan

WITHIN MONTHS OF 8CHAN’S FOUNDATION, THE SITE HAD BECOME A CESSPIT OF RACISM, SEXISM, HARASSMENT AND OTHER FORMS OF CRIMINALITY

did express his profound regrets to The Wall Street Journal in the aftermath of the attack. Watkins, a controversial figure who rarely engages with the press, was even more committed to 8chan’s free speech mission than Brennan had been and stated categorically that the site would remain live. This left Cloudflare, the provider and protector of 8chan’s secure network, in a difficult position. The company refused to revoke 8chan’s access to its services, citing a ‘content-neutral’ policy that prevented the nature of information on a given website from dictating whether or not Cloudflare would continue to serve it as a customer. In the face of this impenetrable wall, the chorus calling for the closure of 8chan died down. But it was reignited in April, when John Earnest reportedly attempted to livestream himself shooting worshippers at California’s Poway synagogue, and again in August, when Patrick Crusius was detained by authorities following a mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, that killed 22 Walmart shoppers and left 24 injured. Crusius allegedly posted a white nationalist manifesto on 8chan in the lead-up to the shooting, praising the actions of the Christchurch perpetrator. Earnest has since pleaded not guilty to all charges, while Crusius confessed to being the shooter as he surrendered to local authorities, according to the El Paso Police Department. Following the Walmart shooting in August, it was clear that 8chan could not continue to operate, but there was no consensus on who should be responsible for closing the site down. “America’s ongoing problem with mass violence – and the difficulty we are having as a country in quelling it – is leading many to look to the online forums used by the perpetrators,” a spokesperson for the Electronic Frontier Foundation told The New Economy in a statement. “[But] as we’ve seen time and again, there’s little agreement about where to draw the line, much less who should draw it.” »

September 2014 While Brennan’s imageboard initially struggled to attract users, it found salvation in 4chan’s decision to ban anyone associated with Gamergate, an online harassment campaign launched against female developers. As users left, angry and disenchanted, Brennan was ready and waiting with 8chan’s promise of minimal oversight. October 2014 With the site now flourishing, Brennan decided to quit his job as a programmer and moderate 8chan full-time. However, financial issues soon reared their head – advertisers proved unwilling to promote their products alongside unsavoury content – leading Brennan to partner with NT Technology, a self-proclaimed “powerhouse in the internet world”. July 2016 Although Brennan ceded control of the site to NT Technology owner Jim Watkins in January 2015, he remained the face of 8chan, ardently defending its right to free speech. Ongoing disagreements with Watkins saw Brennan resign as the site’s administrator in July 2016 before cutting all ties with the imageboard in December. September 2017 8chan was cast into the spotlight when a meme of Hillary Clinton – condemned by some as anti-Semitic and readily retweeted by rival candidate Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential election – was found to have originated on the site. A year later, the Daily Dot ran an article entitled What is 8chan, the Internet’s Most Dangerous Message Board? August 2019 Following mass shootings in Christchurch, Poway and El Paso – all of which were linked to 8chan – web infrastructure company Cloudflare served notice to the imageboard, revoking its security provision. Without protection from cyberattacks, 8chan soon collapsed, but many users are thought to have migrated to similar sites, such as 4chan and Gab. 47

Less than 24 hours after the El Paso shooting, Cloudflare took that momentous decision into its own hands. Prince published a statement announcing the company had served its notice to 8chan, terminating the imageboard’s network security provision and essentially condemning it to be shut down in a matter of hours. “The rationale is simple: they have proven themselves to be lawless and that lawlessness has caused multiple tragic deaths,” Prince wrote in a blog post. “Even if 8chan may not have violated the letter of the law in refusing to moderate their hate-filled community, they have created an environment that revels in violating its spirit.”

Clouded judgement Cloudflare’s decision was met with a mixed reaction. Some lauded the firm for what they perceived to be a morally upright choice, one that would contribute to a reduction in mass violence. In their eyes, pulling the plug on 8chan meant depriving an extremist community of the forum via which members were able to share their destructive ideas and radicalise others. “Shut the site down,” Brennan begged in an interview with The New York Times in August. “It’s not doing the world any good.” In reality, though, the matter is more complex. Cloudflare is a publicly traded company that exercised the kind of power usually reserved for government regulators. In closing the site down, the network provider stimulated a complex discussion about the nature of censorship, responsibility and control in the Wild-West-like corner of the internet in which 8chan dwelled. When justifying the decision to terminate its relationship with 8chan, Cloudflare drew on the hazy concept of the

rule of law. However, Prince did not clarify exactly what he meant by this term, instead writing: “While [the rule of law] has been articulated as a framework for how governments ensure their legitimacy, we have used it as a touchstone when we think about our own policies.” This lack of clarity led to criticism for two reasons: first, Cloudflare operates internationally and, as such, is not bound by a single constitution or set of laws, but rather the laws of each nation in which it does business. Second, as each nation has its own set of laws to govern what is and isn’t acceptable in online spaces, there is no such thing as a universal rule of law. What’s more, even if there was, the responsibility of deciding what is classed legal or illegal should lie with governments, not businesses. “There is no global consensus yet created by the international community around key terms such as ‘terrorist content’,” Tech Against Terrorism researchers Jacob Berntsson and Flora Deverell told The New Economy. “This means that rather than democratically accountable governments, who should be the ones who decide what does and does not constitute [online] terrorism, the onus of adjudication is often outsourced to tech companies.” Prince was evidently well aware that his company would be denounced for overstepping the mark when it closed down 8chan, as he pre-empted this criticism in his statement: “While we’ve been successful as a company, that does not give us the political legitimacy to make determinations on what content is good and bad. Nor should it.” But government action on internet regulation, particularly with regards to the ‘alt-tech’ online space 8chan occupies, has not come to fruition, despite the clear need. In the US,

THE RESPONSIBILITY OF DECIDING WHAT IS CLASSED LEGAL OR ILLEGAL SHOULD LIE WITH GOVERNMENTS, NOT BUSINESSES

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51 50 KILLED

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no law exists to sanction hate speech, as it is protected under the First Amendment. Other liberal democracies have limited legislation, but in many places it is rarely invoked due to disagreements over definition or challenges relating to burden of proof in online forums. Prince clearly felt that the criticism he would receive for Cloudflare’s decision was an acceptable trade-off for the harm the site could cause in the absence of government regulation.

User error Cloudflare’s decision was not only criticised for being problematic from a regulatory perspective: it was also labelled ineffective, something Prince acknowledged in his original statement. “Unfortunately, the action we take today won’t fix hate online,” he wrote. “It will almost certainly not even remove 8chan from the internet.” The network provider was aware there would be other, less scrupulous firms that would be willing to associate themselves with 8chan in exchange for the hefty profit boost such a relationship would no doubt provide. Even if the platform were unable to find a security partner immediately, 8chan, or some iteration of it, would have likely sprung back up eventually. In the meantime, its users have had no trouble finding new homes online: some have returned to 4chan, while others have migrated to platforms such as Gab, a social media site that is widely described as a haven for white supremacists and the alt-right. Like 8chan, Gab was closed down briefly in October 2018 after Robert Gregory Bowers allegedly posted a message detailing his plans to carry out a mass shooting at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. The site has since reappeared on the dark web.

EL PASO WALMART SHOOTING:

22 24 KILLED

INJURED

THE MASS SHOOTINGS ASSOCIATED WITH 8CHAN ARE EVIDENCE OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN ONLINE VIOLENCE SPILLS OVER INTO REAL LIFE

“[The resurgence of 8chan and Gab] demonstrates two things,” Berntsson and Deverell said. “First, it calls into question how effective content removal really is; second, it highlights the need to carefully and holistically think through how situations like these should be dealt with in the future.” The sites’ reappearance makes a strong case for government regulation, which, if implemented effectively, would allow all platforms with harmful content to be removed systematically, as opposed to the individualistic method firms such as Cloudflare are currently restricted to. Any holistic approach must not be limited to regulating the harmful content that appears on sites like 8chan, though, and should instead delve into the reasons why such extremities and violence have become a prominent facet of our society. “While removing 8chan from our network takes heat off of us, it does nothing to address why hateful sites fester online,” Prince wrote. “It does nothing to address why mass shootings occur. It does nothing to address why portions of the population feel so disenchanted they turn to hate.” On these sites, the users are the ones who create the content, so we need to ask why extremism breeds in these spaces and what has led users to feel so disempowered and desperate within the offline world that they are susceptible to radicalisation. The mass shootings associated with 8chan are evidence of what can happen when online violence spills over into real life; as a society, we need to be taking action far earlier than we currently are to ensure such scarring events do not continue to take place.

Rebooting the system It is clear that regulation is needed, but progress is slow for two key reasons: first, groups such as the Electronic Frontier Foundation are concerned about the implications for free speech. “The same arguments used to silence hateful speech are often used to silence marginalised speakers with important things to say,” a spokesperson for the non-profit group told The New Economy. Second, the conversation surrounding regulation has become extremely politicised, particularly in the UK, as divisive events such as Brexit have polarised society and hindered the sort of cross-party consensus that is typically required in situations like this. Owing to both of these factors, many believe an international approach to regulation would prove more fruitful than one defined by disparate government guidelines. Creating a universal rule of law, for example, would make each nation accountable and ensure that subsequent governments could not alter legislation according to their political agendas. It would also prevent regulations from being used as a tool for censorship by repressive actors. While regulation is unquestionably the first step to preventing continued violence on platforms such as 8chan, for many countries, it remains a distant goal. Any further delays will make acts of violence like those found in El Paso and Christchurch a likely recurrence. It also means the onus for action remains on firms such as Cloudflare – a burden that no organisation should have to bear on its own. tne 49

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Contents:

50 Nuclear Power 52 Milling 54 Hydrogen

Nothing to see here In August this year, a mysterious explosion that took place near Russia’s White Sea region caused a spike in radiation levels. Experts now believe it was caused by a nuclear-powered missile, writes Barclay Ballard The medical staff at Arkhangelsk Regional Clinical Hospital in Russia were not told much about the three patients who arrived at approximately 4:30pm on August 8. They were rushed to the emergency room – naked save for some translucent plastic bags that had been wrapped around them – before being moved to separate operating theatres. Explanations from Moscow were characteristically vague. Initially, the Russian Ministry of Defence declared that a fire caused by an explosion of a liquid-fuelled rocket engine had killed two individuals and injured four others. It also stated that background radiation remained at normal levels. However, local authorities in the city of Severodvinsk, some 25 miles away from where the explosion took place, provided contrasting information: they saw a spike in radiation levels 200 times that usually recorded. It wasn’t until two days later that Rosatom, the state atomic energy corporation, issued a statement revealing that the explosion occurred during work on “an isotope power source”. Although the 50

agency hadn’t used the word directly, the truth was out – a nuclear incident had occurred. Immediately, thoughts turned to the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 and the fallout that followed. Fortunately, the explosion that took place by Russia’s White Sea coast was far less damaging than the one that occurred some 33 years ago. Nevertheless, the incident served as a reminder of the huge number of nuclear weapons that remain in the hands of governments all over the world today, and the destruction they can cause.

of a Burevestnik missile, rather than during a failed flight test,” Anne Pellegrino, Project Manager and Research Associate at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told The New Economy in September. “It is unclear exactly what caused the explosion, though reports indicate that it occurred as the missile was exiting the water. One hypothesis is that the reactor developed for the Burevestnik is cooled with liquid sodium, a common coolant for fast reactors. Liquid sodium is highly reactive with air and would cause an explosion similar to the one described The mystery missile Amid a slew of claims and counterclaims, during the August 8 incident.” The existence of the Burevestnik facts regarding the explosion on August 8 remain difficult to pin down. So far, expert is not disputed – Russian President consensus points towards an experimental Vladimir Putin revealed the missile himnuclear-powered cruise missile – specifi- self in March 2018, along with a host of cally, the 9M730 Burevestnik. The weap- other hypersonic weapons. Since then, on, which is claimed to have virtually un- however, the development of the weapon limited range, is also sometimes referred has largely been kept under wraps. The information that has been gathered thus to by its NATO code name, Skyfall. “Currently, it is believed that the explo- far indicates that the missile is powered sion occurred during a recovery operation by a nuclear reactor, allowing it to travel

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energy

Nuclear Power for thousands of kilometres at low altitude and very high speeds. This could allow it to avoid defence systems like Although the those the US currently has in place. US may have It’s a formidable weapon, but also an shelved plans unwieldy one. According to US intellifor a nucleargence, the missile was tested four times powered between November 2017 and February 2018, crashing every time. The danger of missile of these tests, as the incident of August 8 its own, that proved, is that when a nuclear fuel source is doesn’t mean involved, the risks are significantly higher the country than with conventional propellants. has laid down In the aftermath of the explosion, its arms some of the medical professionals at the Arkhangelsk hospital were flown to Mos- completely cow to undergo further tests. One of them was found to have traces of caesium-137, a radioactive isotope, in their muscle tissue. Although it is highly likely that the contamination resulted from treating survivors of the missile’s explosion, Russian officials had a different theory: they claimed the caesium-137 must have originated from “Fukushima crabs” that the doctor had eaten while on holiday in Thailand. Just like with The August 8 Chernobyl, the cover-up was in full force. explosion in

The Skyfall-out The exact cause of the explosion on August 8 may never be known. It is possible that Russia believes revealing more information about the event would risk other states developing similar technology. What is becoming clear, however, is the consequences of such developments: aside from caesium-137, other radioactive fission products, including strontium-91, barium-139, barium-140 and lanthanum-140, have all been detected near where the explosion took place. “Theoretically, the reactor on the [Burevestnik] missile would be unshielded, meaning that anyone in its vicinity would be exposed to very high levels of radiation,” Pellegrino explained. “This is a system that I hope the Russians are never able to make fly. More generally, systems like the Burevestnik are incredibly destabilising and are not a good sign for what may be coming during a renewed arms race between the United States and Russia.” Certainly, Russia is not the only nation to have considered using nuclear power to give its military arsenal a boost. The US tried to develop a similar weapon to the Burevestnik missile in the early 1960s, under the codename Project Pluto.

numbers:

Fatalities according to the Russian Ministry of Defence

Fatalities according to Rosatom

200x

Spike in radiation levels in Severodvinsk

It was, according to Pellegrino, “a crazy idea”, and was shut down in 1964. One of the reasons Pluto was cancelled was that the nuclear reactor powering the weapon had to be unshielded to keep its weight down. This meant radioactive particles were continuously expelled throughout its flight. The missile would not simply destroy its target upon impact – it would irradiate everything and everyone it passed over. Even at a time when Cold War tensions were running extremely high, this technology caused too much collateral damage to conscionably be further developed. S c ienc e a nd t e c h nolog y h ave advanced considerably in the decades since those early Project Pluto tests, but whether they have progressed enough to guarantee that only identified targets are affected by a nuclear-powered missile remains unknown. But, depending on who was in charge of such a weapon, this may not be a problem: given that apocalyptic outcomes are an inherent part of nuclear weaponry, perhaps the idea of collateral damage does not hold much water.

Clouds on the horizon Although the US may have shelved plans for a nuclear-powered missile of its own, that doesn’t mean the country has laid down its arms completely. Already in possession of the world’s strongest military, the

US is working on increasingly sophisticated new weaponry: lasers, hypersonic projectiles and high-velocity drones represent just a few of the projects under development. And, of course, the US continues to maintain and modernise its nuclear arsenal. “I am not optimistic about the likelihood of seeing a world without nuclear weapons any time soon,” Pellegrino said. “I am equally worried about the backwards trend in arms control between the United States and Russia. The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the lack of discussion between the two parties regarding the extension of the New START arms reduction treaty beyond 2021 means that we are rapidly approaching a time when there will be no legally binding limits on the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Backsliding on arms control and this renewed arms race paint a grim future for nuclear disarmament.” The Burevestnik missile explosion showed the unique risks that come with the development of nuclear weapons. It also demonstrated how much secrecy continues to shroud the technology. Initially, not even the death toll could be agreed upon: the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that two people had been killed; Rosatom said five. One thing is certain, however: for as long as the world is developing nuclear weaponry, lives will continue to be at risk. tne 51

energy

Milling

Be nice

to rice Traditional rice mills can’t access modern equipment, resulting in food loss. Koolmill’s disruptive technology enables all rice millers to replace antiquated equipment with a simpler next-generation mill, writes Alec Anderson, Managing Director of Koolmill Systems Globally, there is a relatively small number of large commercial rice mills producing more than 100 tonnes of product per day – fewer than 50,000, in fact. These mills perform well and use less power for each tonne milled (around 40kWh) than small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) mills, which use around 80kWh per tonne milled. However, larger mills require lots of capital to build, operate and maintain, and also require substantial quantities of rice in order to operate at a cost-effective level. There are some 1.5 million SME mills worldwide that mill under 100 tonnes of rice per day. Many of these smaller mills do not benefit from modern milling solutions due to their existing infrastructure, limited capacity and lack of finance to reinvest. Thus, SME mills are locked in a perpetual cycle of operating destructive, antiquated machinery, or are forced to replace like-for-like, having little choice but to opt for cheap and poor-performing machinery.

Over 90 percent of the $4bn of projected sales of rice-milling equipment between 2018 and 2023 will be from machinery largely superseded in the 1980s. Outdated machinery is both ineffective and wasteful; a modern mill can return 70 percent of milled rice (both broken and unbroken) from paddy. Meanwhile, according to the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in its Global Food: Waste Not, Want Not report, using poor storage and old machinery can cause up to 80 percent of the entire rice crop to be lost post-harvest. These losses are unsustainable with a growing population and demand.

Empowerment through technology Koolmill provides empowering technology that enables efficient distributed milling on demand and at the point of use. We address three key problems in milling: lowering power consumption, quantitative improvement (more milled rice from the same input) and qualitative improvement

Over 90 percent of the $4bn of projected sales for rice-milling equipment between 2018 and 2023 will be from machinery superseded in the 1980s

(the milled rice is of a higher quality). As such, Koolmill produces more food from existing harvests with less power, less loss and less damage. By integrating simpler distributed storage and milling solutions, we are working to minimise these post-harvest losses, thereby maximising the return of food and high-value by-products from bran and husk. This is vital, because modern rice mills can’t be efficiently scaled down to meet the needs of SME mills. Indeed, there is now a push for larger mills to reduce the cost of production, which requires the trucking in and redistribution of massive quantities of rice. Heavy losses occur throughout the lengthy rice value chain. Our technology helps to prevent this by shortening and rebalancing the existing value chain to minimise the interface losses in transportation. Improving the storage and transportation of rice and maximising the return of undamaged rice from milling will contribute to significantly less food loss. Essentially, we seek to create shared value, to retain value locally and to distribute it more equitably between stakeholders in a shortened value chain. What’s more, Koolmill is affordable, accessible and available to all millers, regardless of size

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Left and below Koolmill’s onepass F1 machine replaces the Buhler three-pass system in a typical small rice mill

or location. It provides SME mills with the opportunity to transition from low-value commodity producers to value-added, market-leading food producers. We also contribute to 16 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals set by the UN. Koolmill is driven by its vision and values – we believe that sustainable employment produces improved economic opportunities, leading to higher incomes which, in turn, improve education and nutrition, and contribute additional tax revenue for local economies.

Market focus China is the largest rice market globally, and demand is growing. The support we have seen in China, both through grants from the government and private investment, has enabled us to progress there. We have also just embarked on a two-year Newton Project, supported by Innovate UK and the Chinese Government, further extending our activities in the country. There are other markets that also show great promise. On August 31, 2019, we completed an Innovate UK Newton Bhabha Fund project in India, working alongside local academic, manufacturing and milling partners. The Indian rice market is

1.5m

Number of SME rice mills worldwide

2,500l of water needed to produce 1kg of rice

the second-largest globally and is currently more advanced than the Chinese market, making it our primary target market. We have patents covering over 70 percent of global rice production and will launch our services to key markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Greece, Turkey, Brazil and the US, as resources allow. Key to this roll-out is our established global network of collaborative partnerships, including academic, manufacturing, technological and milling partners, as well as our proven unique selling points and novel pay-asyou-mill business model.

Food security The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN estimates that rice production will need to increase by 70 percent in order to satisfy demand from the growing global population, which is estimated to reach 10 billion by 2050. This need is set against the backdrop of decreasing harvest yields, as well as extreme weather events, which put stress on farmland. Yet, the annual triple bottom line (people, planet and profit) loss from rice globally is estimated at $127bn. It takes 2,500 litres of water to grow 1kg of rice, but each year

some 60 billion kilograms will be lost post-harvest thanks to poor storage and ineffective milling. The input cost of this rice – land, water, seeds, chemicals, power, fuel and labour – lost post-harvest each year amounts to $14bn. Koolmill, and project partners Siemens, Sheffield Hallam University and Aston Business School, are pioneering the introduction of a fully digital and affordable auto-tuning rice-milling solution, available to millers through a unique business model that effectively allows SME millers to pay as they mill. After 150 years of mechanised milling, Koolmill’s technology is recognised as the third generation of milling technology. We are at the start of a very long road of innovation and development, driven by a mantra of producing more by milling less. Koolmill’s vision is to transform an antiquated and wasteful global industry, move it to a sustainable future and lift millions from poverty. Our primary objective is simple: create and build momentum to move towards delivering our vision. Through this, we will create a profitable, global business that has a positive impact economically, socially and environmentally. tne 53

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energy

Hydrogen

An element of

success

For decades, hydrogen has been touted as a promising source of clean energy, only to be dismissed for its exorbitant cost. Now, however, its price projections have plummeted and the element is enjoying a resurgence in popularity, writes Charlotte Gifford On the remote archipelago of Orkney, off the north coast of Scotland, locals often say you don’t need an umbrella – you need a riot shield. Orkney is almost entirely flat with very few trees, so when the islands are not being battered by storms and galeforce winds, they are usually swamped in haar, a damp fog that sweeps in from the sea. Hugh Marwick, a scholar who lived on Orkney during the first half of the 20th century, once called its climate “one of the vilest under heaven”. But abysmal weather brings unique advantages, too: Orkney is one of the few places on Earth that sustains itself solely on renewable energy. Its winds, waves and tides generate around 130 percent of the electricity its small population needs. With such a surplus of energy, Orkney has even had to explore new ways of storing power to ensure it doesn’t go to waste. The answer, it found, was to convert excess electricity into hydrogen using a zero-carbon method. In 2017, Orkney became the first state to generate hydrogen from tidal power. Now, the world’s superpowers are looking to this tiny corner of the planet for inspiration. Many have committed to decarbonising their economies: the EU seeks to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, while China has promised to bring emissions to a peak by around 2030. But in order to meet such ambitious targets, governments will have to broaden their renewable energy efforts to include hydrogen fuel.

Bumps in the road Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe. By mass, it has the highest energy content of any fuel and, when burned, it produces no carbon emissions – only water. This makes it a highly attractive alternative to fossil fuels, particularly in sectors where electrification may not prove as effective, such as aviation, shipping, iron and steel production, or long-distance road transportation. The concept of hydrogen fuel first became popular in the 1970s, when the term ‘hydrogen economy’ was coined by electrochemist John Bockris. During the multiple oil crises of the 1970s, many research programmes were launched into its commercial application, while conferences were held in the US, Europe and Japan. Despite these efforts, though, hydrogen had a hard time winning people’s hearts: the technology required for hydrogen production proved to be very expensive to develop and, once oil prices returned to pre-embargo levels, interest in lowering those costs waned. Hydrogen regained some of its popularity during the late 1990s and early 2000s, as the world became obsessed with moving away from oil. An article published by Scientific American in 1998, entitled The End of Cheap Oil, even suggested global production of conventional oil would decline within 10 years: this would supposedly occur amid fears that prices would peak while demand kept rising,

$17bn Estimated value of Chinese investment in hydrogen power by 2023

plunging the world’s economies into crisis. It was largely due to this belief that US President George W Bush became a strong proponent of hydrogen fuel cells. In 2003, he committed $720m to research into this area. Unfortunately for Bush, his successor’s secretary of energy, Steven Chu, later diverted much of that funding into battery research, causing hydrogen to fall out of the spotlight once again.

Light-bulb moment Public awareness of the potential of hydrogen is still relatively low. Among climate advocates, automakers and governments, though, it is enjoying a renaissance: Japanese automaker Toyota, for example, has consistently bet on hydrogen technology, launching its first fuel-cell vehicle in late 2017, and this year, ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka, the International Energy Agency claimed the world was on the cusp of finally unleashing hydrogen’s potential. “Given the nature of the current climate emergency, the utilisation of a clean fuel generated from renewable energy sources is gaining significant traction,” Anthony O’Mullane, a professor of science and engineering at Queensland University of Technology, told The New Economy. However, most of today’s hydrogen is far from clean. In fact, about 96 percent of total hydrogen production is made using methane, while just four percent comes from water electrolysis – the method of production through which zero emissions

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Investment and government support are precisely what the hydrogen sector needs if it is to play a key role in the clean energy economy Marwick Head, Orkney Islands

are emitted. What’s more, a huge shift is needed if water electrolysis is to occur on a large scale. It’s for this reason that hydrogen still has critics: Tesla CEO Elon Musk, for example, has dismissed hydrogen fuel cells as being “mind-bogglingly stupid”. Despite the criticisms of Musk – who, as the head of an electric car company, may be slightly biased against fuel cells – studies suggest that producing hydrogen through water electrolysis is set to become much cheaper. In August, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) reported that the cost of renewable hydrogen could fall as low as $1.40 per kilogram by 2030, down significantly from the current range of $2.50 to $6.80. It even suggested this figure could drop to $0.80 by 2050, which would finally make hydrogen an economically viable, carbon-free energy source. “The main barrier to the uptake of large-scale electrolysis to produce hydrogen has been cost,” O’Mullane said. “However, with improvements in electrolyser technology and manufacturing processes, this cost is steadily decreasing.” One of the things that has made water electrolysis so expensive in the past is the catalysts used in the process, which are typically made from costly metals such as iridium oxide and platinum. But O’Mullane, along with PhD student Ummul Sultana, recently discovered a way of using cheaper and relatively more available materials instead. Technological advancements like this could, in the long term, help meet BloombergNEF’s estimates.

Powering forward Government pressure will also play a key role in commercialising hydrogen technology. In light of the EU’s zero-carbon targets, German engineering company

Among the countries most aggressively pursuing hydrogen adoption is China, which aims to get one million fuel-cell vehicles on its roads by 2029. While it’s easy to scoff at such a proposal – the country is currently home to just 1,500 fuel-cell vehicles, most of which are buses – one must remember that China has made similar leaps in the recent past. Having lagged behind Japan, South Korea, the US and Europe until as recently as 2014, China is now the world’s largest electric vehicle market. It didn’t claim the top spot by accident, either: according to the Bosch announced in April that it would US-based think tank Centre for Strategic be teaming up with Swedish fuel-cell com- and International Studies, China has spent pany PowerCell to begin mass producing an estimated $58.8bn subsidising the electric car industry over the past decade. fuel cells for trucks. Now, it plans to do the same for hydro“The EU’s fleet requirements for trucks call for a reduction of CO2 emissions by 15 gen. In September, the South China Mornpercent on average by 2025, and 30 percent ing Post reported that local authorities in by 2030,” Heather Butcher, PR and Com- 10 Chinese cities will hand out incentives munications Manager at Bosch UK, told of between CNY 2m ($280,190) and CNY The New Economy. “Bosch’s view is that 4m ($560,381) for each refuelling station this target can only be reached by electri- constructed. When the country’s acquifying more and more of the powertrain. sition of foreign hydrogen technology The fuel cell can play a decisive role here.” is taken into account, BloombergNEF estimates that China will have invested over $17bn in hydrogen by 2023. Investment and government support Cost of renewable hydrogen (per kilogram): are precisely what the hydrogen sector needs if it is to play a key role in the clean energy economy. Although production is becoming more affordable, the difficulties of achieving large-scale hydrogen adoption should not 2019 be underestimated. Fuel-cell vehicles will need to compete with electric cars at a time when batteries are becoming cheaper and more efficient. With enough subsidisation, 2030 (estimate) though, renewable hydrogen may finally find a home beyond the remote islands of Orkney, and take its place as the world’s preferred carbon-free energy source. tne 2050 (estimate)

$2.50-6.80 $1.40

$0.80

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MOUNTAIN CLIMB TO

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will return to Davos in 2020 to discuss the major issues facing the planet. If the showpiece event is to command the attention it craves, though, it will need to start finding some solutions to longstanding problems, writes Barclay Ballard

The World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting seems to have lost its mojo – particularly in the West, where globalisation is being rejected in favour of a more protectionist outlook. What’s more, most observers of the 2019 meeting found that it fell a little flat. Headline speakers were underwhelming and failed to live up to the box-office acts of previous years, which included the likes of US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. If future editions of the gathering are to prove their worth, they will need to consider the concerns of a world growing more antagonistic to the globetrotting elites who have become synonymous with the event. Nevertheless, many of the chief talking points from previous years remain unresolved and are likely to dominate the agenda in 2020. Finding the right regulatory balance that can rein in the excesses of Silicon Valley’s tech giants without stifling innovation will undoubtedly be up for discussion once again. Trade tensions, meanwhile, don’t appear to be going anywhere and climate change looks as difficult to solve today as ever.

But the WEF’s yearly showpiece has never claimed to be able to single-handedly solve the major issues facing our planet. Instead, the gathering of business elites, experts and heads of state in Davos, Switzerland, simply aims to better understand and engage with these challenges. Each year, even if the forum only manages to spark one idea that makes the world a better place, surely it must be deemed a success.

In nobody’s best interest In 2018, when Trump was in attendance at the WEF Annual Meeting, few would have predicted that the trade war wrangles between China and the US would still be plodding along today. Tariffs remain in place on billions of dollars’ worth of goods, forcing businesses in both countries to explore new markets, make cutbacks or simply shut up shop. In fact, the only thing that seems to be traded freely between the two superpowers these days is insults. The International Monetary Fund’s latest estimates indicate that the US-China trade conflict

has wiped as much as $455bn off the global economy – a figure that will surely continue to rise. It has reportedly already cost the technology industry $10bn and could end up setting back the average US household $460 a year, according to an analysis by London-based economists Kirill Borusyak and Xavier Jaravel. In China, meanwhile, the spat has contributed to an economic slowdown that has taken even the most pessimistic analysts by surprise. For the business leaders and government figures assembled at Davos, resolving the USChina dispute will no doubt be a priority. Fortunately, the WEF has always been unashamedly pro-globalisation. Shortly after the Trump administration extended its tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, the WEF’s Aditi Verghese and Sean Doherty criticised the decision in an article entitled Trade Wars Won’t Fix Globalisation. Here’s Why. They wrote: “Short-sighted, protectionist measures ignore and erode the opportunities that [global value chains] provide for driving inclusive and sustainable growth and do nothing to optimise outcomes.” » 57

DAVOS 2020 Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the 2017 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

US-CHINA TRADE WAR:

$455bn

Cost to the global economy

$10bn

Cost to the technology sector

$460

Cost to the average US household

But while some parts of the world wait to see what these two global superpowers will do next, others are keen to get on with things. In Africa, for example, countries are refusing to pull down the shutters and are instead opening themselves up to more international trade. Plans are afoot to launch the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a tariff-free continental market for goods and services that, according to the WEF, would instantly become the world’s largest trade bloc. The AfCFTA will be implemented gradually, but it already has the support of 54 members of the African Union (AU), with the only exception being Eritrea. It’s hoped that the free trade area will boost intracontinental trade, which remains far below that found in other parts of the world: according to the African Export-Import Bank’s African Trade Report 2018, intracontinental trade in Africa sits at just 15 percent, far below the figures seen in Asia (58 percent) and Europe (67 percent). Preliminary estimates cited in the report suggest the establishment of the AfCFTA could see this figure rise to 52.3 percent by 2022. “[The AfCFTA] will create jobs and contribute to technology transfer and the development of new skills; it will improve productive capacity and diversification; and it will increase African and foreign investment,” explained UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed at the formal launch of the AfCFTA. “Perhaps most important of all, the [AfCFTA] demonstrates the common will

of African countries to work together to achieve ment claims; and Apple had to navigate reports the vision of the [AU’s] Agenda 2063: the Africa that some of its products were susceptible to We Want. It is a tool to unleash African innova- Spectre and Meltdown security vulnerabilities. tion, drive growth, transform African economies Scrutiny of said tech firms continued into 2019, and contribute to a prosperous, stable and peaceful albeit not to the same degree. In June, Facebook decided that its domAfrican continent, as foreinance of the social media seen in both Agenda 2063 space was not enough and and the 2030 Agenda for began eyeing the financial Sustainable Development.” services market. Its unveilAt the WEF on Africa ing of a new digital currenevent held in August, there cy called Libra, however, was much discussion as to The only thing that was met with a less-thanwhy Africa is choosing to seems to be traded enthusiastic response. integrate its economies at freely between China Reactions to Libra have a time when other parts of and the US these ranged from the indifferthe world are adopting a days is insults ent to the indignant. Some more isolationist approach. predict the currency will Crucially, the leaders of have little impact when the AU are already discussing ways to ensure that the continent’s it launches in 2020, with detractors (such as less developed economies – and, indeed, its The Week’s Jeff Spross) suggesting that it offers poorest citizens – are not negatively affected few points of difference from existing mobile by a more liberal approach to trade. It’s a topic payment apps. For others, the currency poses that will undoubtedly be returned to in Davos a threat to the monetary sovereignty of nation states. That’s certainly the view of the French at the turn of the year. Government, which has moved to block the development of Libra in Europe. Worlds apart Regardless of whether Libra goes on to change Silicon Valley’s technology giants had their toughest year for a long time in 2018: Facebook CEO the world or not, the conflict between Facebook Mark Zuckerberg faced a grilling from US Con- and France touches upon a broader challenge pregress; Google saw several employee walkouts over sented by today’s rapidly advancing digital econthe firm’s inadequate response to sexual harass- omy: how to legislate on new developments in a

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DAVOS 2020

INTRACONTINENTAL TRADE:

67% Europe

58% Asia

15% Africa

Already, China’s less stringent regulatory way that protects citizens without stifling innovation. In addition to Silicon Valley’s heavy hitters, approach is paying off. The country has quicka number of entrepreneurs and pioneering start- ly become a world leader in genome editing, ups are busy trying to create the next big thing overtaking the likes of Japan and the US, where in areas like self-driving vehicles, the Internet of obtaining government approval for human triThings and quantum computing. It is becoming als is more difficult. Similarly, China is making impressive strides in increasingly clear that regulaterms of AI development. tors will need to grapple with To function effectively, the these developments sooner technology requires reams rather than later. of data that will allow it Deciding just how obtruto ‘learn’ the correct way sive regulations should be is of acting, whether that becoming more difficult. Not Businesses all over the c onc e r n s a u t onomou s only is technology advancing world may be trying to vehicles, natural language rapidly, it is developing all win the tech race, but processing or facial recogover the world and in differthey are not all playing nition. China, which has ent regulatory climates. US by the same rules a very different attitude to institutions may determine online privacy than counthat AI needs another decade tries found in the West, of research before it can be employed in, say, the medical field, but if China thinks has an advantage here, too. “Organisations should work on a responsible such delays are unnecessary, the US risks falling behind. In today’s winner-takes-all economy, coming privacy programme,” Paul Breitbarth, Director of Strategic Research and Regulator Outreach second is the same as not being in the race at all. at Nymity, told The New Economy. “That means looking at which requirements for privacy and data protection apply to you, in all the jurisdictions where you operate, and to implement policies and procedures to deal with them.” In China, however, a responsible privacy programme places national interests above individual ones. According to a national intelligence law introduced in 2017, organisations must support and cooperate with government authorities when they request information that relates to national security issues. Critics believe the wording of the law is vague enough to permit widespread state surveillance. Businesses all over the world may be trying to win the tech race, but they are not all playing by the same rules. Still, companies headquartered in Europe and the US should be wary of pushing regulators to place technological progress ahead of ethical considerations. Instead, markets need to clearly state that they will not use Chinese technology – regardless of how cheap or effective it is – if it has been developed using morally dubious means. That would send a clear message, while also giving firms a financial incentive to adopt sound principles. If this approach works, then perhaps the future could see western and Chinese firms collaborating on new technology. This may seem unlikely at present, but this is the sort of longterm ambition that those present at Davos should Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari signs be striving for – integrating China more closely the African Continental Free Trade Agreement with the global community. » 59

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DAVOS 2020

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

Hurricane Dorian caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage in the Bahamas

A hot mess As is the case every year, those gathered at the WEF Annual Meeting (many of whom arrive by private jet) will be set the unenviable task of trying to win the fight against global warming. While it is easy to sneer at the jet-set elite for not practising what they preach, finger-pointing will achieve little – the time for action is already long overdue. Throughout 2019, a number of natural disasters provided a reminder of just how urgent the situation has become. In September, Hurricane Dorian became the strongest storm to ever hit the Bahamas, resulting in billions of dollars’ worth of damage and leaving at least 61 dead. While rising global temperatures do not cause storms like Dorian, they can boost their intensity. For the strongest storms, climate scientists have found that the sustained wind speed increases by approximately eight percent for every one degree Celsius of warming. The surface sea temperatures measured in the area where Dorian formed were higher than usual (especially when compared with pre-industrial levels), but such figures – and the disasters they engender – are likely to become the new normal if humans fail to cut their carbon emissions drastically and without delay. Although the Paris climate accord has been criticised for its ineffectiveness, all hope is not lost. Greta Thunberg, a speaker at last year’s WEF Annual Meeting, continues to galvanise her supporters by preaching the importance of sustainability. It’s a message that national governments have increasingly been espousing themselves. In both the US and Europe, environmental policies are now firmly part of the political conversation: 60

Turning up the heat

With global warming exacerbating the effects of natural disasters, governments are under mounting pressure to limit any future increases in the planet’s temperature. Here, we highlight the catastrophic difference between a 1.5 degree and two degree Celsius rise.

1.5°C OF WARMING:

2°C OF WARMING:

40cm

50cm

17%

Rise in sea levels by 2100

Decline in freshwater availability in the Mediterranean

Increase in heavy rainfall

90%

Proportion of reefs at risk of coral bleaching

Rise in sea levels by 2100

Decline in freshwater availability in the Mediterranean

Increase in heavy rainfall

98%

Proportion of reefs at risk of coral bleaching

Source: Carbon Brief Notes: Rise in sea level relative to 2000; changes in heavy rainfall and freshwater availability relative to 1986-2005; risk of coral bleaching from 2050 onwards

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DAVOS 2020

Climate activist Greta Thunberg delivers a speech to supporters outside the White House

for instance, new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made the European Green Deal a central part of her plans in office, which also include making Europe the world’s first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. “We must go further, we must strive for more,” von der Leyen said in a speech during her candidacy for the commission presidency. “A two-step approach is needed to reduce CO2 emissions by 2030 by 50 – if not 55 – percent. The EU will lead international negotiations to increase the level of ambition of other major economies by 2021. Because to achieve real impact, we do not only have to be ambitious at home – we have to do that, yes – but the world has to move together.” On the other side of the Atlantic, figures on the political left, such as US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are pushing their own version of the European Green Deal that would reshape the US economy. The Green New Deal, as it is known, promises to decarbonise the manufacturing and agriculture industries, build a national energy-efficient smart grid and turn green technology into a major US export. These proposals are ambitious, but that’s because they have to be – according to the Carbon Brief website, even if the global temperature is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, sea levels will rise some 40cm by 2100, freshwater availability in the Mediterranean will fall by nine percent and the intensity of heavy rainfall will go up by five percent. If temperatures increase to a greater extent, the outcomes are even worse. Despite the efforts of politicians around the world, the most pessimistic estimates indicate

that it will not be possible to reduce the planet’s subdued investment growth in developing econCO2 emissions quickly enough to avoid catastro- omies are holding countries back from achieving phe. Instead, states may need to deploy less con- their potential,” World Bank Group President ventional solutions to meet their environmental David Malpass said in June. “It’s urgent that goals. One potential option would be to invest countries make significant structural reforms more heavily in carbon capture and storage tech- that improve the business climate and attract investment. They also need nology. This can be used to to make debt management greatly reduce the CO2 emisand transparency a high prisions produced by the burnority so that new debt adds ing of fossil fuels and, when to growth and investment.” combined with renewable It is depressing that The eurozone, for exambiomass, can even lead to humanity has treated ple, is expected to grow by carbon-negative energy. Simthe planet in such a way just 1.4 percent across 2020, ilarly, several organisations that simply reducing while US-China trade tenhave developed methods to sions threaten to dampen remove CO2 from ambient fossil fuel usage is business and investor conair using an absorptionunlikely to be enough fidence in both markets desorption process. to sidestep disaster for the foreseeable future. It is depressing that Political change may prohumanity has treated the planet in such a way that simply reducing fossil vide a path away from this stagnation: the US fuel usage is unlikely to be enough to sidestep dis- presidential election is scheduled for late 2020, aster. At this year’s WEF Annual Meeting, talks while the EU has recently appointed new heads will once again focus on efforts to cut down glob- of the European Commission and European al greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, though, Central Bank. However, as we are all well aware, new technology may have to come to the rescue. politics is always rife with uncertainty. Change can be both positive and negative. Attendees at the 2020 WEF Annual Meeting Fresh thinking Making things more difficult is the fact that these will be hopeful that fresh leadership can set the challenges must be tackled at a time when political planet on a course for closer economic collaboraand economic stability is far from guaranteed. tion, stronger financial stability and longer-term More than 10 years have passed since the global environmental sustainability. If discussions at financial crisis, but the world economy is still suf- Davos can help in any of those areas – even in fering a hangover. “Current economic momentum some small way – then perhaps the event can remains weak, while heightened debt levels and recapture some of its lost spark. tne 61

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Contents:

62 Investment 74 Infrastructure 80 DNA Testing

An uneven digital revolution The use of mobile money has exploded across Africa in recent years, but while some nations are setting the global agenda, political barriers and trust issues are causing others to lag behind, writes Sophie Perryer When it comes to mobile money, sub-Saharan Africa is leaps and bounds ahead of other regions. Transactions using some sort of digital currency have a value of close to 10 percent of GDP, according to the World Economic Forum, compared with seven percent of GDP in Asia and less than two percent in Europe and the US. But while statistics for the overall region paint a resoundingly positive picture, a closer look reveals that there are significant disparities between individual nations. In Kenya, for example, 73 percent of the population has a mobile bank account, and payment services such as M-Pesa dominate the country’s financial landscape. Yet in Nigeria, just six percent of the population use their phones for financial transactions, and 60 percent don’t have a bank account at all, despite the country being Africa’s largest economy. The reason for this stark disparity lies predominantly in the difference between the two countries’ economic approaches. Tackling political barriers to reform is no doubt challenging, but it is a necessary and worthwhile endeavour: it will strengthen intracontinental trade and business ties, as well as make it easier for underbanked Africans to control their finances. 62

Leading the way When M-Pesa launched in 2007, it was one of the first services to facilitate mobile transfers, not only in Africa, but worldwide. It had just two predecessors – Globe Telecom and Smart Communications – both of which began offering SMS transfers to customers in the Philippines in 2005. M-Pesa’s product, which was developed by mobile network Vodafone, allowed users to keep up to KES 50,000 ($480) in a virtual bank account, from which they could send funds to friends or relatives. For a country with an extremely large unbanked population, this was revolutionary. In 2006, just 18.5 percent of Kenyans had access to formal financial services; this was predominantly due to a lack of mainstream lender infrastructure, particularly in poorer rural areas. Banks had little motivation to establish retail branches or even ATMs in these locations due to the expense and a perceived lack of demand, but this perpetuated the issue of financial disenfranchisement, as residents did not have the means to travel to larger cities simply to access a bank. What’s more, it was unlikely they would be accepted for a bank account due to a lack of available funds or appropriate documentation.

It seems improbable that mobile money could have taken off so rapidly in such a disconnected and financially disempowered environment, but M-Pesa’s surprising success lies in the fact that mobile phone penetration has grown at an astonishing rate in Kenya over the past 10 years. This allowed the payments firm to gain a foothold in areas not previously touched by traditional financial services. In 2007, 23 percent of the Kenyan population had a mobile phone, but in 2019, that figure has risen to 80 percent – an increase that was largely facilitated by investment in electricity and internet infrastructure at both a private and public level. Concurrently, the number of adults with access to formal financial services, including mobile payment services such as M-Pesa, has since risen to 82.9 percent.

Political opposition Mobile adoption, while significant, is not the only factor that has contributed to the growth of Kenya’s digital financial landscape. Politics also played a key role: in 2007, Kenya’s traditional lenders heavily lobbied the government to crack down on M-Pesa, claiming the emergent firm was akin to a

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business

Investment

23%

of Kenyans had a mobile phone in 2007

80%

of Kenyans have a mobile phone in 2019

82.9% of Kenyans have access to formal financial services

pyramid scheme and was overstepping the mark in launching financial services. They would have succeeded, too, had it not been for Bitange Ndemo, the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Information, Communications and Technology at the time, who made a strong case for the merits of mobile payments to President Mwai Kibaki. Thanks to Ndemo’s persuasion, Kenya’s mobile money sector was able to thrive, but in other African nations the political environment has not been so conducive to success. In Nigeria, a regulation existed until 2017 that prevented network operators from transferring money for customers without the intervention of a bank. This was lifted by the Nigerian Government in the hope that it would help to boost the country’s financial inclusion rate, which stood at 40 percent at the time, according to World Bank research. However, the move was heavily opposed by traditional lenders, which had lobbied the government for years to prevent Nigeria’s powerful telecoms firms from entering the financial services sector. In Zimbabwe, it has seemed in recent years as though mobile money could take off in a similar vein to Kenya. “Not as far

M-Pesa’s surprising success lies in the fact that mobile phone penetration has grown at an astonishing rate in Kenya over the past 10 years

as bitcoin or anything like that, but a very informal variant,” said Professor Stephen Chan, a professor in the Department of Politics and International Studies at SOAS University of London. “It was very much at a grassroots level, but the grassroots in Zimbabwe is very fired up [as a result of the country’s fragile economic situation] and very canny.” Any potential progress in the sector, however, has been quashed by the Zimbabwean Government. “The government was very reluctant to allow essentially a virtual economy to spring up, because it couldn’t control it,” Chan added. Zimbabwe’s highly conservative minister of finance, Mthuli Ncube, has implemented a series of policies that have made it near impossible for payment firms to gain a foothold, the latest being the addition of a two percent tax on every transfer carried out via mobile. While Ncube claims this serves to prevent tax evasion, it also prices out many Zimbabweans from using mobile payment services. Following its implementation in August this year, Zimbabwe’s consumer rights association issued a statement claiming the tax will “not only burden the impoverished consumer, but will also drive the costs of doing business”.

Trust issues Reticence to mobile money also comes from the people themselves, particularly in countries where traditional currency has been plagued by hyperinflation and corruption. In Zimbabwe, former prime minister Robert Mugabe’s overzealousness with the financial printing press contributed to one of the worst hyperinflationary episodes in global history, wiping out citizens’ savings and leaving the country without a stable national currency ever since. Kenya, meanwhile, was forced to discontinue its KES 1,000 ($10) note earlier this year after it emerged that it was routinely counterfeited. What’s more, according to Transparency International, more than a quarter of Africans have had to bribe an official to access public services in the past year, with the vast majority of such payoffs supplied in cash. These deep-seated issues have not only eroded people’s purchasing power, but have also severely dampened confidence in both government and financial institutions. It’s little surprise, then, that the citizens of these nations have not embraced mobile money with open arms, as they have no guarantee that digital currency will not be beleaguered by the same problems. Tackling these trust issues is crucial if mobile money is to succeed unilaterally across Africa, but nations will see the greatest success if they combine an anti-corruption drive with a comprehensive infrastructure investment programme. As for political opposition, M-Pesa’s success in Kenya has proved that mobile money has huge potential for good, particularly in terms of financial inclusion. This is the case not only for individuals, but also for small businesses, which are often a key economic driving force in rural areas. Allowing a private firm to provide those services – while an unfavourable choice for countries with highly conservative economic regimes – is a necessary trade-off in order to obtain the numerous benefits associated with mobile money. tne 63

business

Investment

How Germany’s digital hubs are transforming Baden-Württemberg Thanks to continued investment from the German Government, it’s never been easier for aspiring entrepreneurs to bring their dreams to life in Baden-Württemberg, writes Dr Kai Schmidt-Eisenlohr, CEO of Baden-Württemberg International Baden-Württemberg is swiftly becoming one of Europe’s leading investment and innovation centres, with more than 5,000 foreign companies having already based themselves in the state to benefit from its unique opportunities. This is especially the case in sectors focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) and studies into future mobility. Indeed, Baden-Württemberg excels in research and development – in 2017, research expenditure totalled €27.9bn ($30.6bn), or a sizable 5.6 percent of the state’s GDP. Prior to 2016, there was a significant lack of digital investment and development in Germany, especially in rural areas. With criticism centred on this fact, Baden-Württemberg decided to launch a multi-disciplinary digitalisation strategy called digital@bw at the end of 2016. Around €1bn ($1.1bn) of investment was secured, with a plan for it to be delivered by 2021. Of this, €122m ($134m) was invested in more than 500 broadband projects in 2018. Out of the 12 hubs within the nationwide Digital Hub Initiative (a network of innovation centres with specialised focuses), three are located in Baden-Württemberg: a future industries hub in Stuttgart, a digital chemistry and health hub in Mannheim, and an AI hub in Karlsruhe.

companies in the automotive and engineering sectors, including Daimler, Bosch, SAP, Porsche and ZF Friedrichshafen. Further, 10 independent research groups carry out fundamental research in the field of AI throughout Cyber Valley. Collectively, the groups research machine learning, computer vision and robotics. Researchers are specifically seeking novel numerical algorithms that will enable learning machines to process information faster and more reliably, as well as intelligent software for self-driven vehicles and smarter traffic-guidance systems. It’s no surprise, then, that BadenWürttemberg has become a popular headquarters for tech start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The federated state offers not only an ideal ecosystem for aspiring firms, but also a strong industry base with an exciting mix of SMEs and multinationals – all of which are potential clients. The Digital Hub Initiative is both recognition for the achievements of the past and a boost for the future. On the one hand, the label is an award for regions for their competence in their respective technological fields. It also helps to boost their respective strengths by supporting knowledge

BadenWürttemberg in numbers:

30.6bn

Amount spent on research in the region in 2017

of Germany’s 12 Digital Hub Initiative centres call the state home

5,000 Foreign companies based in the state

Innovative network Baden-Württemberg’s Cyber Valley lies between the cities of Stuttgart and Tübingen. These cities have a strong heritage in research and education, are home to two renowned universities, and boast several research institutes. The south-western region has the highest industrial density in Germany, and is known for its world-leading

The south-western region has the highest industrial density in Germany and is known for its world-leading companies in the automotive sector

transfer and connecting established companies to innovation partners from both the scientific and start-up communities.

The future of industry Baden-Württemberg has established itself as a vital base for the anticipated tech boom in AI technology, as well as a key player in the integration of AI within the transport sector. For example, the Active Research Environment for the Next Generation of Automobiles (ARENA2036) programme, which is located in the region, continues to revolutionise the automotive industry. Set up on the campus of the University of Stuttgart as a factory of the future, ARENA2036 allows onsite testing of research findings from the manufacturing and development sectors. In particular, it focuses on integrated lightweight and innovative manufacturing technology, and benefits from close links to start-up Autobahn, a business accelerator for start-up companies working on hardware or software-based mobility solutions. In 2036, the programme will celebrate the 150th anniversary of the invention of the automobile in Baden-Württemberg by Karl Benz. Opening Baden-Württemberg up to foreign markets and highlighting the region as a global leader for industry, business and science have always been the core aspects of our mission. The work we do at Baden-Württemberg International aims to secure and strengthen the position of the state over the long term by encouraging foreign capital investment, helping companies to settle and promoting cooperation between businesses and cutting-edge research. tne

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business

Investment

Optimising company strategies Stratence Partners works with organisations of all sizes to help them increase their profit margins, market share and the value they can deliver to their respective industries, writes Fernando Ventureira, CEO of Stratence Partners The key to strategy optimisation is to work with companies to shape their organisation into a more structured, dynamic and cross-functional form. This means granting greater capacity to professionals for proactively managing the value delivered through the company’s products and services, and then measuring how this value is influencing demand from all segments of the market. Put simply, it’s about implementing a more automated and scientific approach when handling customers. Being agile, having the right mindset and matching products and services with the right customers are all key factors. A lot of companies try to sell everything to everyone. As a result, they don’t leverage a proper commercial and pricing strategy. Successful companies, on the other hand, are clear about the value they deliver, the customers they are targeting and how much their customers will pay for a fair deal.

With this in mind, we can help project participants to build a roadmap for both short and long-term success. For the latter, sustainability is crucial. Throughout this entire process, we consider profitability and formulate a list of priorities for each initiative that we plan on deploying. Finally, for every company we work with, we start off with the understanding that if they are selling a product or service, there is always the potential to increase profits, volume or both.

Proven methods

At Stratence Partners, we use the term ‘pricing excellence’. We believe this to be the key element in transforming a strategy into tactics, rules, conditions and prices that align harmoniously. We also believe it is critical to provide market intelligence at precisely the right time to enable our commercial clients to develop better relationships with their customers, thereby boosting both their volume of sales and profits. Essentially, it’s all about commercial effectiveness. Developing market and competitive intelligence and then Plotting roadmaps At Stratence Partners, we engage with the transforming this into a business strategy organisations we work with by using a ‘train going forward is a clear asset for commercial and coach’ approach. In doing so, we work success. It starts by designing and impleclosely with the different functions involved in the strategy, pricing and commercial departments of the organisation. For every stakeholder on board, we leverage proven A lot of companies try to methodologies that we have been employing for more than 25 years across some 800 sell everything to everyone. projects. We’ve partnered with companies As a result, they don’t leverage of all sizes across many industries globally. a proper commercial and By using this experience, we help companies pricing strategy identify what they are already doing well and what they need to improve on.

4-12%

Increase in revenue for companies that hire Stratence Partners

800

companies have employed Stratence Partners over the past 25 years

menting a new structure made up of people, processes, the organisation, governance, systems and data. Then, leveraging this with what the company already possesses, it is combined using advanced capabilities. The key benefit to implementing these new capabilities is to better support the organisation in defining the best value proposal (which can include the portfolio, volume, conditions and prices) for each individual customer segment. Then, depending on the complexity of the business and what makes sense in each case, we complement these new capabilities with a variety of science and data-driven tools, including analytics, algorithms, rules engines, machine learning and artificial intelligence. We then work closely with the sales people of the organisation, training and coaching them to implement changes in their field. As such, it’s about translating the strategy into the real world. Another proven method we use is the World Class Excellence Model, which provides a robust benchmark to compare the current capabilities of an organisation with the 40 best practices for strategy optimisation, pricing excellence and commercial effectiveness. We also employ a change management framework to engage with organisations through their various functions and at all levels. At Stratence Partners, we commit to providing complete satisfaction to all of our customers. This involves sharing all of our insight, knowledge and capabilities. Through this level of dedication, we can ensure a one-to-one return in the short term, meaning the project essentially pays for itself, and a one-to-10 return on the investment in the long term. We typically increase our customers’ profit margins by four percent to 12 percent, making Stratence Partners’ services invaluable to businesses of all sizes. tne

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Investment

Sun on the horizon As a thriving smart city with a wealth of culture and an enviable climate, Málaga is an ideal home for employees and businesses, writes the municipality’s mayor, Francisco de la Torre Prados

and video conferencing – have allowed employees to work from home or alternative locations. At the same time, social media has broadened people’s horizons with regard to what a company can offer them. It’s no longer just about the paycheque – increasingly, people seek out employers that can offer them a good quality of life, too. Given the growing expectations of younger sections of the workforce, it’s becoming more difficult to retain talented people. For example, companies that choose isolated locations to reduce costs often have trouble keeping hold of employees. In order to retain talented individuals, companies must choose office locations that bring value to the workplace and foster positive employee morale. Recently, companies such as EPAM Systems, ITRS Group and Ciklum have leveraged the enviable quality of life in Málaga as a way of attracting highly qualified people and creating the best teams possible. Málaga is a beautiful coastal city that offers the amenities of a major European capital without the traffic congestion, pollution or stress. It is renowned for its wonderful climate, beautiful beaches, mountainous landscapes, delicious cuisine and hospitable residents. With a population of around 570,000, Málaga is a cosmopolitan MedAttracting top talent Improvements in technology and transport iterranean city where residents of more – such as high-speed trains, low-cost airlines than 150 nationalities live together. Globalisation has had a transformative impact on today’s business models. As a company’s customer base is no longer limited to a city, region or country, companies are now able to target far more people. Further, international business is no longer limited to just a few large multinational corporations; small and medium-sized enterprises can operate across borders with greater ease than ever before. This increased competition tends to lower operating costs, as companies can search around the world for the best prices for raw materials. Customers, meanwhile, are becoming more price-sensitive, reducing businesses’ margins on goods and services. Operating a business has become more complex in certain respects, too. Companies now have to manage employees, customers and suppliers across several time zones, speaking different languages and using multiple currencies. Management teams must also consider cultural differences among employees, as well as the implications of operating under different laws and taxation structures. Perhaps the most pressing challenge for companies in today’s globalised world, though, is ensuring that they meet the changing needs of their workforce.

Málaga is a beautiful coastal city that offers the amenities of a major European capital without the traffic congestion, pollution or stress

Málaga is also the birthplace of Pablo Picasso and Antonio Banderas, so it’s easy to see why its citizens have a strong appreciation of the arts. There are more than 30 museums – including the Museo Picasso Málaga, the Centre Pompidou Málaga and the Contemporary Art Centre of Málaga – and dozens of cultural events throughout the year, such as Holy Week and the Málaga Film Festival. Further, the city’s historical centre has many pedestrian spaces where one can enjoy diverse cultural offerings, including the Cathedral of Málaga, Alcazaba and the Roman Theatre.

A thriving economy It is the responsibility of local governments to generate a prosperous environment and create employment. As such, authorities must have a strategic plan in place that guides the development of the city. Key aspects of a solid city plan include public transportation, utilities, security, education, productive business zones and green spaces. These plans should be developed with local

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Mayor of Málaga Francisco de la Torre Prados

stakeholders and the business community. For instance, in Málaga, we collaborate very closely with bodies such as the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Navigation, the General Confederation of Labour, the provincial and regional governments, and many other local business associations. At the same time, city authorities should provide services that make it as easy as possible for foreign companies to relocate and invest in their city. To this end, municipal governments should consider organising or sponsoring cultural and business events as a way of attracting international experts, students, tourists, professors and business executives. Finally, it is important that the local government has a plan to promote the city through both online and traditional media – after all, a strong image increases awareness of what a city has to offer and engenders pride in local citizens. These strategies have helped Málaga blossom into an entrepreneurial smart city. In fact, the city’s economy grew 3.4 percent in 2018, only slightly below the 3.9 percent growth of the previous year.

Málaga in numbers:

3.4%

Growth in the local economy (2018)

570,000

Population

646

companies based at Málaga’s Andalusia Technological Park

What’s more, it is surrounded by an innovative ecosystem, known as Málaga Valley, and is home to the Andalusia Technological Park, where 646 companies employ some 19,873 workers. Software development, wireless solutions, telecommunications, big data analytics, radio frequency identification, aeronautics, biotechnology and renewable energy are just some of the sectors represented at the park. Companies that choose to be located in technology hubs can hugely benefit from economies of scale. It is also easier to recruit talented people, as there is a higher concentration of similar companies with like-minded employees. Given the variety of employment options, individuals are more inclined to choose innovative regions. At the same time, being geographically close to universities and leading companies exposes businesses to new skills, unique processes, advanced research and cutting-edge technology. If implemented correctly, these can improve efficiency and lower operating costs, resulting in more profitable companies. Finally, investors and financial institutions tend to pay close attention to these tech hubs, making it highly advantageous for companies to be located in such regions.

Spain’s shining light Málaga has transformed into an innovative smart city and has plans that will help it keep evolving. Currently, the city’s overall strategy is aligned with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, and it has specific aims to boost mobility and technological innovation between now and 2022. In addition to the 198 smart city initiatives defined in the plan, we created an

experimental urban laboratory within a municipal building. This holds specialised equipment and a co-working space where companies can operate side-byside with the city’s best engineers to test, certify and demonstrate new services and technology within the smart city concept. We have also employed the use of a smart cities accelerator, which is sponsored by Spain’s largest telecommunications provider, Telefónica. In fact, Spain’s first National Digital Content Hub – equipped with the latest technology in videography, 3D animation and virtual reality – opened in Málaga in 2017. At present, plans are underway to build offices and residential buildings along the coast, at the port and at the Andalusia Technological Park. There are also proposals to build four more hotels, including a convention centre that will support international conferences from various industries, including Gamepolis, Transfiere, Greencities, the S-Moving Forum and the Smart Agrifood Summit. What’s more, a second metro line that will connect the city centre with the high-speed railway station is under construction. We also plan to build an auditorium at the port and a planetarium. Málaga will continue to provide companies and their employees with all the assistance they need during the relocation process. Málaga is a city well prepared to face the challenges of the future – as a business location, it can add tremendous value to a company by lowering overall operating costs while rewarding employees with a very high quality of life. Although the sun is always shining in this part of the world, the coming years look especially bright for Málaga. tne 69

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business

Investment

Acting with foresight

With so much uncertainty surrounding global trading conditions, the German state of Hessen offers investors some much-needed reassurance, writes Dr Rainer Waldschmidt, CEO of Hessen Trade and Invest With tariffs and trade barriers increasingly becoming the norm, it seems that controversial developments are characterising the current state of world trade. Although the backlash against globalisation is widespread, parts of the world are striving to let others know that they remain open for business: one such place is Hessen, the German state located at the heart of the country. Home to Frankfurt – Germany’s financial centre – the region is perfectly positioned for organisations wishing to target markets in Europe and beyond. At Hessen Trade and Invest, the state’s business development agency, we provide services to aid companies that are focused on innovation and technology across Hessen, as well as for foreign investors and international companies already operating in the region. We also offer support to foreign companies by helping them establish a presence in Hessen, as well as providing support to local companies seeking to gain a foothold in foreign markets. It’s for these reasons the state has been able to assert itself as a competitive business location in the face of a changing global landscape.

creases looming. The primary focal point within the EU, meanwhile, is undoubtedly Brexit, a topic that has been plagued with a series of unresolved regulatory issues. This has, in turn, served to further amplify the already high levels of uncertainty in the political and business arena. Despite these issues, Hessen has managed to maintain its status as an internationally recognised and highly attractive investment location. There has been an especially large rise in the number of UK-based companies establishing a foothold in the state. Hessen’s Minister of Economics, Tarek Al-Wazir, recently said Hessen enjoys these benefits thanks to its central location at the very heart of Europe, robust infrastructure, unique pool of highly qualified professional specialists and excellent network of respected universities. In addition, a high standard of living and a vibrant cosmopolitan atmosphere make Hessen a great place to live and work.

Hessen has managed to maintain its status as an Punitive tariffs, trade wars and Brexit: these internationally recognised turbulent issues are the hallmarks of today’s and highly attractive global economy. This can be seen in the investment location A sure investment

increased mutual tariffs between the US and China, with the prospect of further in-

US companies established a presence in Hessen in 2018

UK companies established a presence in 2018

Chinese companies established a presence in 2018

A global reputation A growing number of international companies are electing to establish operations in Hessen. Our statistics show that Hessen’s top investor in 2018 was undoubtedly the US (with 54 companies), followed by the UK (29), which managed to surpass China (22). Furthermore, companies based in Japan, India and France certainly value the business location of Hessen and its infrastructure for a number of industries, such as financial services, IT, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, metalworking and automotive manufacturing. We primarily advise companies seeking to establish, relocate or expand their operations in Hessen, as well as offering custom-made packages for investors. We work closely with regional and local business development agencies, such as the Infrastructure Bank of Hessen and Enterprise Europe Network. We make an effort to bring the right partners together, establishing effective working partnerships to boost Hessen’s economy and make it a great place for companies to do business in. Global trade may be on shakier ground than it once was, but there are still opportunities to be had. In Hessen, these opportunities are geographical, financial and strategic. At Hessen Trade and Invest, we’re on hand to ensure companies make the most of them. tne

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N13AM_001_Z08_88412.pdf

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Investment

Research

hotspot Located in the heart of Europe, surrounded by magnificent mountains, Carinthia lures visitors in with its incredible landscape, crystal-clear lakes and idyllic skiing. It also enjoys a reputation as a leading space for technological development, writes Jernej Dvoršak, Investment Promotion Manager at BABEG Invest in Carinthia Over the past few years, Villach, the second-largest city in the Austrian state of Carinthia, has developed into a hotspot for micro and nanoelectronics technology. Austria’s leading research company, Infineon Technologies, is based in the state, demonstrating its credentials as a tech hub. In November 2018, Infineon invested €1.6bn ($1.8bn) into its Villach headquarters. Today, it is the world’s most advanced semiconductor factory, with a perfected, fully automated production process that produces ultra-thin, 300mm semiconductor wafers, alongside a cutting-edge research and development complex. The company is one of the leading global exporters in electrical technology, all of which is manufactured in-house in Carinthia. There are other market-leading big tech firms located in Villach, including Lam Research and Intel. These companies work alongside research-intensive SMEs to chart the course of future developments in electronics, microelectronics, mechatronics, sensors and robotics.

Powered by research Carinthia’s commercial viability is enhanced by its mature research landscape. Five independent research centres, together with the work carried out by the Alpen-Adria University and the Carinthia University of Applied Sciences, contribute to the province’s high degree of innovation. The largest research and development institution in the state is Silicon Austria Labs, one of Europe’s lead-

ing research institutions in electronic-based systems. In fact, Villach is one of the three locations in Austria (along with Graz and Linz) that specialise in intelligent sensors and power electronics. While Villach is the home of microelectronics, Klagenfurt is the provincial capital of Carinthia and the state’s world-class IT centre. At its heart lies the 34,000sq m Lakeside Science and Technology Park, which provides excellent synergy between companies, researchers and educational institutions. The park is currently home to more than 70 companies and around 1,300 employees. In addition, there are three research facilities and the Educational Lab, which offers modules in a variety of topics, such as new areas of research. It also offers inspiration to young people, encouraging them to get involved in the sciences. Furthermore, the park is home to Carinthia’s start-up developer, build! Gründerzentrum Kärnten. This highly conducive environment provides an optimal framework for organisations making cutting-edge advances in

Carinthia is currently designing a new digital innovation hub and 5G Playground, which will be based inside the Lakeside Science and Technology Park

Carinthia in numbers:

$1.8bn

Invested by Infineon into its Carinthia headquarters

Hi-tech IT companies at the Lakeside Science and Technology Park

their respective fields. For example, the park is home to a branch of Joanneum Research, a pioneering robotics institute, and Lakeside Labs, which specialises in ‘self-organising networked systems’. At present, the park is investing around €30m ($33m) for an additional 9,000sq m of innovation space and laboratories to attract more forward-thinking researchers from all over Europe.

Why Carinthia? BABEG Invest in Carinthia is currently designing a 5G Playground and a new digital innovation hub, which will be based inside the Lakeside Science and Technology Park. Once complete, companies and researchers will be able to use the playground to test, develop and research all kinds of applications, software systems and 5G products in this unique indoor and outdoor laboratory. In addition to such fantastic infrastructure and investment, one of the biggest advantages to Carinthia is its enviable position on both European transport corridors – the Baltic-Adriatic Corridor and the Tauern Line. Everything is quick to get to within the state as well, making it extremely convenient for businesses. As well as being a melting pot for research and innovation, Carinthia has a highly skilled and productive workforce on offer. Carinthia’s business-friendly policies provide companies with a stable environment, a good funding structure and the security to plan ahead. These factors complement Carinthia’s high quality of life, family-friendly environment and excellent education system for children of all ages. Carinthia is a truly special place in which to live, work and innovate – with its beautiful surrounding landscapes, sublime mountains and crystal-clear lakes, it is easy to balance highly productive industry with natural beauty. tne

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N14AM_001_Z04_35606.pdf

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business

Infrastructure

Private goes public in Peru

ProInversión is turning Peru’s billion-dollar infrastructure deficit into an ambitious business opportunity by combining private investment with public sector projects, writes César Martín Peñaranda, Head of Investor Services at ProInversión Over the past decade, Peru has become one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies. According to Central Reserve Bank Governor Julio Velarde, the country’s average annual growth rate has been five percent over the past two decades – the highest rate in Latin America – which is thanks in large part to continued investment in its growing mining sector. However, the country’s infrastructure development has fallen behind in recent decades, meaning that the overall infrastructure deficit is set to remain at $110bn over the next 20 years. A developed infrastructure is crucial for countries to meet their national goals and be economically successful, as it connects supply chains and allows goods and services to move across internal borders. Additionally, developed infrastructure can unite metropolitan areas and increase social mobility by granting better opportunities in terms of employment, education and healthcare. In Peru, the current infrastructure gap presents a formidable barrier to invest-

ment opportunities. As a private investment promotion agency, ProInversión champions public-private partnerships (PPPs) in an attempt to boost Peru’s infrastructure and global competitiveness. ProInversión has strong links with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, as well as numerous government bodies for various industry sectors, making us an excellent first point of call for budding investors. Further, we have a streamlined approach, enabling us to offer investment opportunities that facilitate sustainability and social reform. ProInversión currently identifies sectors such as transportation, energy, health, education, and water and sanitation as lucrative avenues for foreign investment. In addition, Peru’s non-discriminatory and modern legal framework creates a stable investment climate and allows foreign investors to enjoy the same rights as Peruvian investors. Demonstrating this is the projected growth of our project portfolio for 2019 to 2022, which will consist of 55

projects at a total investment value of more than $9.2bn (excluding VAT). At present, there are nine projects in the structuring phase and eight that are approaching transaction, i.e. close to bidding. As new investment ventures emerge and develop, our portfolio value could easily climb to $15bn.

Shaping the market Peru offers private investors an eclectic range of sectors in which to do business. The use of PPPs to fund infrastructure projects has received broad support from organisations around the world. ProInversión uses PPPs for a number of reasons – first and foremost, it allows the public sector to benefit from the advantages usually associated with privately funded projects. For example, PPPs grant public sector projects access to the private sector’s research and development facilities, which can improve operational efficiency and offset some of the associated risk. Meanwhile, private sector companies benefit from the support of large international firms and government

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A developed infrastructure is crucial for countries to meet their national goals and be economically successful, as it connects supply chains and allows goods and services to move across internal borders

resources, thus further developing capabilities and increasing potential. We are regarded as one of the most experienced agencies in Peru, and have been recognised as a good example for many neighbouring countries in Latin America. Our wide-ranging portfolio, combined with Peru’s macroeconomic stability, has boosted the appetite of foreign investors from across the globe.

In the driver’s seat The transport sector is a top priority for the country at present, boasting 35 percent of ProInversión’s portfolio. Peru’s commitment to meeting its transport and logistics needs is apparent in its fiscal planning. As part of a public spending programme, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has prioritised a fund of roughly $30bn for infrastructure developments, of which over 80 percent are in the transport sector. A significant portion of the funding comes from PPP projects, with more expected to come from the private sector. For 2020, we are tapping into the

Peruvian investment in numbers:

110bn

Peru’s infrastructure deficit over the next two decades

Infrastructure projects in ProInversión’s portfolio

34.8km

Length of the Peripheral Ring Road

many investment opportunities available along Peru’s 78,000km of roads – a fundamental aspect of the country’s transportation system, which crosses most of the mountain and coastal regions. For example, the Peripheral Ring Road project, which is currently in the structuring phase, will build a 34.8km-long beltway around Lima and Callao, with an investment value of $2.05bn. This project will improve connections between the districts of the north and east areas and the rest of the metropolitan Lima area. Another important project is the Longitudinal Sierra Highway, which has an investment value of roughly $900m. This project’s scope handles the improvement and rehabilitation works of an important section of the highway, which will connect 12 areas across the Andes mountain range. Meanwhile, our major rail projects include the construction of lines three and four of the metro network between Lima and Callao. Although these lines are still

under formulation with the Ministry of Transport, they will directly impact the profitability and sustainability of the surrounding areas.

Social good Water and sanitation projects form another important strand of our infrastructure strategy, comprising around 25 percent of our portfolio. Projects include increasing clean water capacity and improving waste treatment, as well as building potable water treatments and desalination plants, each of which require sizeable investment. Lima’s potable water supply project, for example, requires design work, construction and maintenance, bringing the total investment value up to $720m. Indeed, over the next 30 years the capital will see a great deal more work in sanitation: dams will be enlarged, while new canals, water transfer tunnels and reservoirs for treated water will be built. Another important sector with a vital social impact is health. Although Peru » 75

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business

Infrastructure candidate to become a member of the OECD in the near future. Ultimately, a stable legal framework helps to facilitate profitable projects. What’s more, ProInversión recently simplified the legal process to hire the best technical, legal and financial firms to serve as advisors and to strengthen the formulation and structuring phases of projects we collaborate on. The Peruvian Government also recognises how tax regimes can further incentivise private investment. An example is the VAT refund scheme, which grants any company the right to recover the VAT of an investment valued above $5m within a preoperative stage of more than 24 months. Significantly, ventures within the agricultural sector do not need a minimum investment capital requirement to qualify.

Support from within

has traditionally suffered from restricted access to healthcare services, significant steps have been made in achieving universal coverage in recent years. In particular, the Universal Health Insurance Law, which was signed in 2009, was a major step towards this goal. At present, our portfolio has five commissioned hospitals set for 2020, covering both their operation and maintenance – a fundamental concession that is becoming the norm in projects across all industries. The total investment for next year through ProInversión into Peru’s health sector totals $591m. After two decades of stable economic growth, Peru increasingly finds itself in a position to invest in resources for education. Following the Peruvian Government’s 2015 initiative to improve the population’s English skills, the number of applicants to English-language degrees is expected to rise. The number of schools and educational institutions teaching in English is already increasing in response to demand from local corporate sectors. ProInversión has five important projects designed to improve the quality of education by giving a boost to each respective school’s infrastructure, guaranteeing they remain in operation throughout the concession period. This investment amounts to around $301m.

An attractive framework The opportunities across these sectors are coupled with Peru’s favourable legal framework. Foreign investors receive non-discriminatory treatment and thereby unrestricted access to most economic sectors, as well as enjoying free transfer of capital and shares. The framework also grants the freedom to both purchase stocks from locals and access internal and external loans. Finally, owing to the political stability Peru has enjoyed in recent years, buyers are guaranteed to retain any private property they purchase. In the event of litigation, investors have access to international dispute settlement mechanisms. Peru notably participates in the Investment Committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which promotes the implementation of environmental and social guidelines for multinational enterprises. Peru is a strong

At ProInversión, we’re proud of our three-pillars strategy, which we believe sets us apart from other agencies in the region that use the PPP model

As the organisation that promotes the country’s private investment policy alongside the Ministry of Economy and Finance, we are best placed to support investors in breaking into the Peruvian market. We provide crucial information and guidance to investors, with the aim of creating a conducive and fruitful environment. For example, sector officers are available across the board to provide information on all our projects and mechanisms. Through this approach, ProInversión can effectively channel information requests from investors to experts in the relevant sector to aid investors’ understanding of market conditions. ProInversión employs a triple-pronged approach to ensure the very best projects are brought to market. We are often the main contact for investors due to our ability to identify and liaise with the various ministries, regulatory authorities and entities governing a particular sector’s environment. Importantly, we also work with the best advisory firms (technical, legal and financial) to guarantee the project’s execution and maintain a great relationship with the investor from beginning to end. We also believe that opening a dialogue with the communities affected by the projects is vital to the initiative’s ultimate success. Finally, it’s also important to develop a promotional plan based on a commercial strategy that leads us to the market: this should include identification, segmentation and customer satisfaction. ProInversión ensures the projects it supports are sustainable by observing the life cycle

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is highly specialised to retain the right investors for each project. We will continue to participate in local and international campaigns, as well as utilise digital tools to keep attracting first-rate investors who are highly committed to our growing economy.

Looking forward

of numerous PPP projects and their five phases (planning and scheduling, formulation, structuring, transaction and contract execution). This guarantees quality at every stage of development.

Internal strategy At ProInversión, we’re proud of our three-pillars strategy, which we believe sets us apart from other agencies in the region that use the PPP model. The first pillar is the hub of excellence: we continually strive to achieve excellence when advising the government on the formulation and structuring of PPP projects. This is made possible by recruiting top-tier consulting firms and facilitating standardised contracts that ensure predictability within any given market. Our second major focus is to promote private investments with productive, social and environmental management at their core. We recognise the value of social and environmental consciousness in our work in order to guarantee sustainable and successful projects that are equally beneficial to society and the population of Peru. This ethos is exemplified by a project that we are particularly proud of – the wastewater treatment system within Lake Titicaca. ProInversión granted this project, which is located in the Puno region – one of the poorest in Peru – under a co-financed and private initiative. It designed a solution for the

With growth and internal development as an unwavering priority, plans for the future at ProInversión are varied and numerous. Having recently presented the National Infrastructure Plan, which was issued by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, we have an infrastructure development agenda in place to help support our long-term vision. What’s more, prioritisation of our projects further helps to anchor and manage the expectations of our stakeholders. Our key objective is to reduce the $110bn infrastructure gap over the next 20 years. Investing capital to close the gap is a huge investment opportunity that is expected to return quick dividends. Furthermore, we are currently collaborating with a top consulting firm to finalise a financial guideline to standardise the development Peru’s VAT refund scheme of financial models in the structuring stage. grants any company the In a similar sense, in order to improve right to recover the VAT of an efficiency, reliability and transparency, investment valued above $5m we have retained the services of a leading within a preoperative stage of Anglo-American law firm that is in the process of finalising a contract for the standmore than 24 months ardisation of PPP projects. To complement these initiatives, we have begun internal treatment and final disposal of municipal discussions to establish a project managewastewater in Lake Titicaca, consequently ment department in each government mindecreasing pollution in this sensitive area istry that is looking to further optimise the of Puno. In the awarding process, ProIn- project’s formulation. versión conducted an international public Stepping into the digital transformatender, which had five potential bidders. tion sphere, we have been put forward by The completion of the Lake Titicaca the Inter-American Development Bank project will help to reduce the water san- as one of the countries to incorporate the itation gap in the country by improving a online data management platform Source. public service for the benefit of all citizens This will keep track of our portfolio and in Puno. This is especially important as, for monitor project milestones, ensuring ProInversión, a project’s significance also accountability at every stage. Another lies in its social impact. The project will pro- benefit of this digital platform is being able vide benefits for more than 1.2 million Peru- to follow the development of projects with vians across 10 towns in the Puno region corresponding and integrated data. Source by improving public health, increasing is a tool that will allow us to plan our procommercial activity and creating an over- ject’s next steps accurately and efficiently. all positive impact on the region’s progress. These new developments will provide The third pillar is our commercial us with fresh impetus and insight into the strategy. Here we have been applying a future of our project portfolio, which is systematic and informed methodology to expected to reach the $15bn mark as more identify, consolidate and attract potential mandates continue to be allocated in the investors. Our commercial intelligence transportation and sanitation sectors. tne 77

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N19ND_078_B07_18465.pdf

business

Infrastructure

Designing a better future Climate change and mental health are among two of society’s most pressing issues. WSP’s Future Ready programme aims to tackle both problems head-on, writes David Symons, Director of Environment and Sustainability at WSP At WSP, we are a 49,000-strong global team that works with companies to design and advise on built-environment projects. This ranges from skyscrapers to railways, roads and energy-generation systems, both for today and the years to come. In fact, taking a long-term approach is one of our core strengths. With our Future Ready programme, we aim to bring clarity and vision to some of the most difficult challenges facing the planet – the kinds of issues that cannot be tackled with a quick fix.

Pay it forward There are two factors that make transitioning to a zero-carbon economy more important than ever. First of all, we simply have to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that are being emitted across the world – otherwise, we end up with a diminished planet struggling with extreme weather, higher sea levels and increased disruption. Second, there is an economic imperative: research shows that although reducing greenhouse gas emissions now is a big expense, it is significantly less burdensome for the global economy to take action today than it is to wait until climate change becomes more severe. Already, a growing number of countries are legislating to become zero-car78

bon economies. Sweden has committed to becoming a zero-carbon economy by 2045, while Finland, Norway and Denmark have all made similar pledges. Chile, meanwhile, has committed to being carbon-neutral by 2050. We’ll likely see more economies taking similar steps in response to international commitments they’ve made, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, which was signed four years ago. A zero-carbon future also represents a fantastic business opportunity to innovate faster than the competition. By creating a zero-carbon economy ahead of other nations, countries are perfectly placed to export their skills, products and knowledge to other economies that are keen to reduce their own carbon emissions. However, governments cannot fund the transition to a zero-carbon economy all by themselves: they need private investment and contributions from civil society if they are to succeed.

Space saver Aside from environmental issues, another aspect of WSP’s Future Ready initiative involves helping individuals with mental health issues. Research has indicated that, even though digital technologies have made communication easier than ever, many societies are suffering from acute

1 in 10 people suffer from a mental health disability in the UK

80%

Rise in mental health disabilities in the UK over the past five years

We’re looking at ways to ‘design out’ loneliness – to create places that don’t exacerbate mental health disabilities

levels of loneliness – particularly in cities. On average, people living in cities know just two or three of their neighbours, and 70 percent of those living in apartment blocks don’t know the names of anybody else living in that building. In the UK, statistics gathered by the National Health Service show that mental health disabilities have increased by about 80 percent over the past five years. This rise can partly be explained by the improved recording of illnesses, but that is certainly not the only reason. At WSP, as major designers of the built environment, we’re looking at ways to ‘design out’ loneliness – to create places that don’t exacerbate mental health disabilities, and to provide spaces where people can still be a productive part of the economy. Some of the ways in which urban design can help tackle mental health challenges are relatively simple: open spaces and communal areas in which to socialise can all make a difference. Green space in particular can be a good way of reducing mental health disabilities. For individuals with autism, colour coding can help them find their way around, while spaces can be designed to dampen noise levels. In the UK, one in 10 people suffer from a mental health disability. It’s important that these individuals are given the support they need in order to remain contributors to the economy. This presents designers with a tremendous opportunity – not only to ensure people remain productive, but also to support their mental health and sense of self worth. tne

B11ND_140_AME_31561.pdf

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business

DNA Testing

It’s in your genes The market for at-home DNA tests is booming. As the companies behind them amass more genetic data, privacy advocates have raised concerns that consumers lack muchneeded protection, writes Charlotte Gifford

A DNA test can reveal surprising facts about us – certain genes make us more inclined to have dry earwax, for example, and others make us more likely to sneeze when we see a bright light. Some genes even result in people being more attractive targets for mosquitoes, so if you’ve ever felt personally singled out by the insect during the summer months, it’s not a cruel conspiracy – it’s your DNA. Innocuous facts like these were what DNA kits were used for finding out when they first became commercially available. However, as the tests have become more sophisticated, the companies behind them have shifted their marketing focus. Users of at-home DNA tests have been known to uncover deep-rooted facts about themselves, from discovering long-lost relatives to learning of their ancestors’ origins and their susceptibility to genetic diseases.

Finding out that you have a pre-existing health condition might not seem like the best idea for a Christmas present, but that hasn’t stopped the test kits from enjoying a surge in popularity. MIT Technology Review estimates that by the start of 2019, more than 26 million people had taken an at-home ancestry test. The market is expected to be worth $45bn by 2024. Nevertheless, despite the emerging industry’s rampant growth, there have been mounting concerns that its practices could infringe on consumers’ rights. Whenever people fork out $100 to $200 for a DNA test, the hidden cost of that transaction is their personal data – which, from then on, is held in the databases of a private company. Once these companies obtain genetic information, it’s very difficult for users to get it back.

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By taking DNA tests at home, many have unwittingly stumbled upon long-kept family secrets. Some have seen their parents go through a bitter divorce after their test revealed they were actually conceived through an affair

Ignorance is bliss Long before people were able to take DNA tests from the comfort of their own home, psychologists worried about their possible impact on people’s mental health. Ever since the Human Genome Project was started in 1990, many scholars have maintained that DNA tests should be used with caution, on the grounds that understanding one’s own health risks could lead to anxiety or depression. Conversely, a study by the Hastings Centre found that discovering an increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease did not make people more depressed or anxious. And in the event that people discover a particularly urgent health risk – like a mutation of the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes, which puts individuals at a high risk of developing cancer at a

young age – any adverse psychological effects are presumably worth it to obtain this life-saving information. However, at-home DNA tests could still pose a risk to mental health, in part because they remove medical professionals from the equation. Adrian Mark Thorogood, Academic Associate at the Centre of Genomics and Policy, warned that this is far from best practice for receiving a DNA test result. “Results should be communicated through a medical professional who can interpret the result in the individual’s specific context, and offer a clear description of the test’s limits,” he told The New Economy. Without a professional’s assistance, users could be left alone to battle with a troubling revelation about their health. There is also a danger that without guidance, some people could misinterpret their test result, placing undue stress on their mental health. There is another unpleasant discovery that people can make through a DNA test – one they may be even less prepared for. By taking DNA tests at home, many have unwittingly stumbled upon longkept family secrets. Some have seen their parents go through a bitter divorce after their test revealed they were actually conceived through an affair. Others have discovered they were conceived by rape and that their mother decided to never tell them. What began as a seemingly harmless urge to find out more about their heritage ends in psychological trauma and family breakdown.

Brianne Kirkpatrick, a genetics counsellor, is part of a growing sector of therapy specifically tailored towards helping people come to terms with receiving unexpected DNA results. One can’t help but wonder whether her patients end up wishing they’d never taken the test at all. “I don’t recall anyone saying they wish they could go back and not learn the truth,” Kirkpatrick said. “But I have had a number of people say to me they wish they had found out their shocking information from a person, rather than a computer.” The fact that virtually anyone can now find out their real parentage through a simple DNA test has wide-reaching repercussions for the accountability of paternity. Historically, men have always had a much greater ability to conceal their status as a parent, as they don’t have to bear the child. The world of direct-to-consumer DNA testing blows this capacity for anonymity out of the water. This is particularly problematic when it comes to sperm donation. Anonymity is a key selling point for many potential donors, but now all their future biological offspring has to do is swab the inside of their cheek to completely compromise that anonymity. Research suggests that we could see a drop in donor rates as a result. A 2016 study in the Journal of Law and the Biosciences found that 29 percent of potential donors would actually refuse to donate if their name was put on a registry. The wave of parental discoveries made through direct-to-consumer DNA tests raises questions about where the responsibility of the seller sits in all this. Most health professionals recommend that individuals seek out genetics counselling once they receive DNA results. Some, like Invitae, offer counselling services but aren’t direct-to-consumer companies. Many of those that are – including 23andMe – do not offer such a service. It could be argued that this shows a certain disregard for the consequences of using their product. Unfortunately, irresponsible decisions like this have tended to characterise the industry’s path to success. » 81

business

DNA Testing

Genetic Wild West In September 2019, 17 former employees from the Boston-based genetic testing company Orig3n accused the firm of giving consumers inaccurate results. Allegedly, if a customer took the same test twice, their results could be extremely different each time. A former lab technician produced a leaked report to Bloomberg Businessweek that revealed 407 errors like this had occurred over a period of three months. Part of Orig3n’s USP was that it offered advice supposedly calculated based on a consumer’s genetic profile. Former employees have cast doubt over the company’s modus operandi by claiming that the advice they gave was in fact routinely lifted from the internet. The advice given ranged from the technically correct but uninspired to the broadly unhelpful – such as telling people to eat more kale – and the utterly bogus, like advising clients to eat more sugar to eliminate stretch marks. Although Orig3n is a relatively small player in the sector, news of this scam nonetheless illustrates how little protection consumers have in this nascent market. Analysts say we are currently witnessing a ‘Wild West’ period in the consumer genetics space thanks to a lack of regulation, raising concerns over whether we can trust these companies with our genetic data. While we might think we’d prefer to suffer a DNA leak than a leak of our credit card details, genetic data has its own unique set of complications. “In the United States, if my social security number is stolen, that is difficult, but not impossible, to get frozen, changed, etc,” said Natalie Ram, an associate professor at the University of Maryland Francis King Carey School of Law and a specialist in bioethics and criminal justice. “But there’s literally no way to change your genetic code.” Genetics platforms like 23andMe, AncestryDNA and FamilyTreeDNA are now sitting on a goldmine of very personal data. In 2013, a 23andMe board member told Fast Company that it wanted to become “the Google of personalised healthcare”. If this statement makes anything clear, it’s that the com-

pany wasn’t planning on making its millions simply by selling DNA test kits: its mission was always to amass significant amounts of data on its users, which it could then monetise. There is a wide range of reasons why companies might want to buy genetic data. Perhaps the most benign is medical research, which genetics platforms allow users to opt in or out of. But other companies might use your genetic data to better sell you products or, conversely, deny them to you – for instance, one sector that would see a clear monetary value in obtaining genetic data is insurance. In the US, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008 prevents employers and health insurers from using a person’s genetic information when making decisions about hiring, firing or raising rates. However, this does not include life insurance or short or long-term disability insurance. At first glance, it seems as if there’s a simple solution: if users are concerned about these risks, they should just choose for their data to be kept anonymous. However, choosing this option is not as foolproof as it once was. As long ago as 2009, researchers demonstrated that they could correctly identify between 40 and 60 percent of all participants in supposedly anonymous DNA databases by comparing large sets of that data with public datasets from censuses or voter lists. Since that experiment, DNA databases have grown massively. “With access to four to five million DNA profiles, upwards of 90 percent of Americans of European descent will be identifiable,” said Ram. “It’s verging on a comprehensive DNA database that no US state or jurisdiction has suggested would be appropriate.”

While we might think we’d prefer to suffer a DNA leak than a leak of our credit card details, genetic data has its own unique set of complications

Above A 23AndMe saliva-collection kit

Shaping the law With comforting statements like “your privacy is very important to us” (ancestry. co.uk) and “we won’t share your DNA” (familytreedna.com) emblazoned on their websites, some genetics platforms seem to be making privacy their number one priority. In the US, 23andMe and Ancestry are part of the Coalition for Genetic Data Protection, which lobbies for privacy protection in the DNA space. However, while the coalition advocates genetic data privacy in a specific context, it argues for a one-size-fits-all policy concerning all data. By comparison, the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation regards genetic information as ‘personal data’, which makes DNA unique from other kinds of data. There is a fundamental legal problem with boxing genetic data in with all other varieties, including the data that social media websites collect about us. In most cases, what a person does on the internet implicates them alone – genetic data is different. We share our DNA with members of our family, which means that sharing it without their consent can be problematic. “Even if I can consent to using my DNA to identify me, that should not extend to my

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26m

people had used at-home ancestry kits by the start of 2019

$45bn Forecasted value of the at-home DNA test sector by 2024

ability to consent to using my DNA to identify my relatives,” said Ram. “The reason I think... that’s a really critical distinction is because genetic relatedness is almost always involuntarily foisted upon us. So we don’t choose our parents, we don’t choose how many siblings we have. It’s a product of biology, not a product of choice.” The legal issues surrounding genetic relatedness were put to the test in 2018 when police discovered the true identity of the Golden State Killer, who terrorised California in the 1970s and 1980s in a homicidal spree. Law enforcement officials were able to convict him only because they had succeeded in connecting the DNA of the suspect with that of a family relative on GEDmatch, a genetic database in the public domain. Across the US and around the world, people celebrated the arrest of a notorious criminal. The only problem was that the means of capturing him was not necessarily legal. Prior to the case, GEDmatch’s site policy made no explicit reference to the potential use of consumer’s data by law enforcement. However, the company defended itself by saying that users should have assumed it could be put to

that use. “While the database was created for genealogical research, it is important that GEDmatch participants understand the possible uses of their DNA, including identification of relatives that have committed crimes or were victims of crimes,” said GEDmatch operator Curtis Rogers in a statement. However, privacy advocates like Ram argue that users’ consent for law enforcement to look at their data should not have been assumed. “At least from a constitutional perspective in the United States, individuals ought to be recognised to have what’s called an expectation of privacy in their genetic data, even if they use one of these services,” she told The New Economy. After the case, genetics platforms updated their policies to clarify their position on law enforcement’s use of people’s data. Interestingly, they took very different stances. While 23andMe and Ancestry said they would not allow law enforcement to search through their genetic genealogy databases, FamilyTreeDNA updated its policy to say it would give up data to officials, but only in the investigation of violent crimes. Users didn’t know it at the time,

but FamilyTreeDNA’s policy update was already too little too late: in January 2019, it was revealed that the company had been secretly working with the FBI for nearly a year to solve serious crimes, without informing its users. The Golden State Killer case exposed how little protection consumers really had in the direct-to-consumer genetics market. It showed that genetics platforms were capable of suddenly changing or contradicting their own policies and even, in the case of FamilyTreeDNA, betraying the trust of consumers. Some might argue that this infringement on genetic privacy is simply the price we must pay to catch dangerous criminals. Of course, without the use of a genealogy database, the Golden State Killer may never have been caught. But the fact that genetic data can be harnessed to solve very serious crimes should not justify law enforcement’s unbridled access to such databases. Abuses of power do happen and, in the context of direct-to-consumer DNA tests, they already have: in 2018, for example, Canadian immigration officials compelled a man to take a DNA test and upload his results to FamilyTreeDNA’s website. They then used the website to find and contact some of his relatives in the UK to gather more evidence in order to deport him. Today’s consumers are continually adjusting to shrinking levels of privacy. From the introduction of video surveillance and the mapping of residential areas on Google Earth to the revelation that Facebook harvests vast amounts of user data, we have seen the public react in the same way again and again: there is an initial public outcry, and then consumers simply adjust to the new level of diminished privacy. Our response to the rise of genetics platforms risks the issue being consigned to the same fate. It is up to regulators to protect individuals’ right to privacy. While our genetic data may be something of a genie out of the bottle, that should not give the companies that collect it free rein over who sees it and what they choose to do with it. tne 83

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Out for

blood Through the spread of deadly diseases, mosquitoes cause hundreds of thousands of fatalities every year. Technological developments are helping to control the threat, but with funding dwindling, the fight against these lethal viruses is far from being won, writes Elizabeth Matsangou Âť

Buzz kill

he deadliest creature on the planet is not a great white shark, a starved lion, an enraged hippopotamus or a poisonous snake – it’s the minute mosquito. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), mosquitoes kill millions of people each year, with malaria – the most deadly mosquito-borne disease – responsible for more than half of these fatalities. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has noted: “Malaria’s economic impact is estimated to cost billions of dollars in lost productivity every year.” Fortunately, positive developments have been made in recent years to bring the death toll down. Between 2000 and 2015, deaths caused by malaria fell by around 62 percent, meaning that 6.8 million lives were spared. But this number may start to rise once again, especially as funding for malaria control plateaus. Dr Nathan Rose, Head of Scientific and Regulatory Affairs at Oxitec, a UK-based biotechnology company that develops insect population controls, spoke to The New Economy about the issue: “Over recent years, the number of deaths per year has been decreasing, but that number has now stabilised and may even start to increase again soon because a lot of the tools that have been used for malaria are starting to lose their impact and that includes, unfortunately, some of the main classes of drugs that have been

incredibly effective. We’re now starting to see resistance against those, particularly in South-East Asia.”

Dropping like flies There are thousands of mosquito species, only some of which are vectors for disease. Malaria, for example, is caused by Plasmodium parasites, which are transmitted to humans through the bites of infected Anopheles mosquitoes. Aside from malaria, other mosquito-related viruses have a considerable impact on human health. Several viral diseases are transmitted through the bites of the Aedes aegypti species, including yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya and the Zika virus. While the Zika virus is not fatal for those bitten, infection during pregnancy can cause severe birth defects. The condition, called microcephaly, causes brain development issues in mild cases and is life-threatening in more severe cases. In 2015, a Zika outbreak that spread across Asia and South America caused a spike in the number of infants born with microcephaly. In fact, in 2016, women in several Latin American countries were warned by government officials to wait until the epidemic was over to conceive. Dengue, which causes symptoms such as a high fever, painful headaches and vomiting, can be fatal if it’s caught more than once or develops into severe dengue. The spread of the disease, which is a leading cause of death in children in various

Latin American and Asian countries, shows no signs of slowing. According to the WHO: “The global incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades.” Yellow fever, meanwhile, can be fatal in around 30 percent of cases, Rose said. The WHO states that in sub-Saharan Africa, it is a major public health problem, with 610 million people at risk. It’s also spreading and resurfacing in areas where it was thought to be eradicated, including most large urban centres in the American tropics. Of these mosquito-borne diseases, only a vaccine for yellow fever exists. “These diseases potentially could impact half the people on the planet because the mosquitoes that transmit them are found so ubiquitously and their range will only spread in coming years as climate change progresses,” Rose told The New Economy. “We’ll see these mosquitoes heading north into Europe and North America and probably further south into other parts of South America, Australia and Africa as well. And so, although these diseases are not as frequently fatal as malaria, they still have massive impacts.”

Bug off Thanks to cutting-edge technology, there are new ways to suppress wild populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The team at Oxitec, for example, breeds male mosquitoes and releases them into the wild to mate with their female counterparts. “All of the female

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Buzz kill

Yellow fever is spreading and resurfacing in areas where it was thought to be eradicated, including most large urban centres in the American tropics

Technicians from the Oxitec laboratory releasing genetically modified mosquitoes

Killer creatures

The animal kingdom is full of species that cause human deaths, but one is more deadly than the rest – and by some distance.

SHARK

100 LION

500

4,400

60,000 580,000 830,000

HIPPOPOTAMUS FRESHWATER SNAIL SNAKE

SOURCE: THE BILL AND MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION, 2016

offspring of those matings will die,” said Rose. The process works by adding two new genes to male insects: the first is a fluorescent protein, which helps the team at Oxitec identify their mosquitoes in the wild. The second, and more important, is the self-limiting gene, which produces a protein in females that stops them from developing normally. “It actually stops the female mosquito from developing past the very early larval stages of development,” Rose explained. The female mosquito will perish before it reaches the reproductive stage of its life cycle, and even before it can fly. “And that’s really important because female mosquitoes are the ones that bite humans and transmit disease. Males don’t. Males just feed on nectar from plants.” The surviving male offspring will continue mating

HUMAN

MOSQUITO

Note: Figures show annual human deaths

with wild females. Any further female offspring will inherit this self-limiting gene, meaning they too will die. “By doing this, we can actually pretty quickly reduce the population of these disease-transmitting mosquitoes in the wild,” Rose said. Crucially, the self-limiting protein can be disabled in laboratory settings using an antidote that, along with feed, is added into the water where the larvae develop. “That allows us to produce these mosquitoes in the production facility,” said Rose. “But in the wild, they won’t have access to this antidote, so they won’t be able to survive.” Oxitec has just completed the first trial of its second-generation mosquitoes – the first used a protein that caused both the males and females to die. The trial took place in the Brazilian municipality of

Indaiatuba, just outside of Sao Paulo, in May this year. “We saw up to 96 percent suppression of the wild mosquito population when we released our mosquitoes, so it was very effective.”

Out of control Given the success that the project has had so far, it is now expanding. At present, Oxitec is working with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to conduct its first field demonstrations in the US, which it hopes will take place in 2020. “[The EPA will first] evaluate the safety and the efficacy of the mosquito before we take it into the field, hopefully in Florida,” Rose told The New Economy. “That’s quite important because in the US in recent years they’ve actually had outbreaks of dengue [and] they’ve had » 87

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Buzz kill

Protests against how the Indian state of Kolkata has managed the dengue crisis

Self-destructive behaviour

Malaria in numbers

219 61% MILLION CASES OF MALARIA IN 2017

OF MALARIA DEATHS ARE IN UNDER-FIVEYEAR-OLDS

locally transmitted Zika, even in Miami. And so there’s a desperate need there for new tools to control these mosquitoes as well.” Such research is so desperately needed because the Aedes aegypti mosquito is rapidly becoming resistant to the insecticides that are typically used to control mosquito populations. “The mosquitoes have now developed the ability to survive even when those insecticides are sprayed, and so that means the number of tools available to control these mosquitoes is becoming ever more limited,” Rose added. In fact, according to the WHO’s Global Report on Insecticide Resistance in Malaria Vectors: 2010–2016, there is now widespread resistance to the four most common insecticide classes – pyrethroids, organochlorines, carbamates and organophosphates – throughout the Americas, Africa, South-East Asia, the Western Pacific and Eastern Mediterra88

25%

OF MALARIA CASES OCCUR IN NIGERIA

62%

DROP IN MALARIA DEATHS FROM 2000 TO 2015

nean regions. “Since 2010, a total of 68 countries have reported resistance to at least one class of insecticide, with 57 of those countries reporting resistance to two or more classes,” reads the WHO’s website. Oxitec’s technology could well act as a formidable tool in the fight against mosquito-borne viruses. To this end, the organisation recently received funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the largest private foundation in the world. “We’re developing the same self-limiting technology in Anopheles that can be used in Central America and also in South Asia, [specifically] in India,” said Rose. It will take two to three years of intense research to produce Anopheles mosquitoes with the right set of characteristics to kill female offspring while ensuring males stay healthy enough to be able to mate and to attract mates. “So those are quite significant challenges,” Rose added.

Another approach to mosquito control is to use gene-drive technology, which propagates a certain gene in a population to encourage its transmission to offspring. Dr Tony Nolan, a molecular biologist at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, is working on a gene drive using the CRISPR technique. He previously worked on the same research at Imperial College London. He explained: “[It] aims to rapidly transform mosquito populations with genetic elements that either lead to suppression of the mosquito population or to its modification in ways that make the mosquitoes incapable of transmitting the parasite. Gene drives are a type of ‘selfish’ genetic element that bias their own inheritance every generation – every time a mosquito with a copy of the gene drive mates with one that doesn’t, nearly all the offspring inherit the gene drive, meaning that their numbers rapidly increase in the population over a very short time, even if they cause a cost to the population.” Describing his work thus far, Nolan told The New Economy that his team has recently designed gene drives that can disrupt the fertility of female mosquitoes. This means the gene drives will increase in frequency within a population at the same time that the population’s ability to reproduce is suppressed. “We have shown in the lab that this can lead to invasion of the population and its complete crash very rapidly, even starting from

N19ND_089_C03_58488.pdf

Buzz kill

a very low number of released gene-drive mosquitoes,” Nolan added. The next stage of the project is to test the technology on a much larger scale. Nolan explained that this will take place in bigger enclosures with more realistic settings, which will allow more complex mosquito behaviour to take place. This stage is crucial because understanding behaviours such as mating and egg-laying in the wild is key to successful gene drives. “In the meantime, there are many studies… [into] basic mosquito behaviour and distribution in the wild [being carried out] in order to better understand how this type of technology might work and how best to employ it,” Nolan said. Such technology does pose risks that must be considered. First, it’s worth noting that there are two main types of gene drives: the first affects the local area only, while the second impacts an entire species. Kevin Esvelt, Director of MIT Media Lab’s Sculpting Evolution group, recommends starting locally to demonstrate how the technology works in various countries and ensure that negative ecological side effects do not transpire. Following these trials, targeting the entire species could theoretically take place. “Because they spread indefinitely, self-propagating gene-drive systems are much more efficient, but our models predict they will spread on their own if just a handful of carrier organisms escape or are deliberately introduced,” Esvelt told The New Economy. “That’s why self-propagating gene-drive systems should only be constructed or introduced into affected countries once all affected nations have agreed. Crucially, several such systems are likely to be required to overcome pockets of resistance that are likely to evolve... One gene-drive system is extremely unlikely to be enough for eradication, even with the best coordinated effort.” Esvelt explained that it’s important to gain permission from the authorities before carrying out releases to reduce the risk of a country refusing to cooperate with eradication efforts. Any such blockage would disrupt a project, which could lead to a resurgence in malaria and countless unnecessary deaths. Esvelt added: “Perhaps most importantly, it would set a dangerous precedent for the

Blood testing for the dengue virus

610

MILLION PEOPLE ARE AT RISK OF YELLOW FEVER

COUNTRIES HAVE REPORTED RESISTANCE TO MOSQUITOKILLING INSECTICIDES

As funding for research has plateaued, fatalities have started creeping up once more

unilateral use of biotechnologies anticipated to spread across borders without securing permission. As a general rule, scientists should never build constructs that could plausibly spread uncontrollably without the explicit support of all nations that would be affected.”

No silver bullet It’s tempting to think that these kinds of solutions could be a panacea for malaria and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, but it’s not so simple. “I think it’s one part of a toolkit that needs to have several different tools in it,” said Rose. “It’s very important to try and get rid of the mosquitoes, but it’s also really important to try and have drugs that you can actually use to deal with the diseases directly where you do have transmission… No single tool is going to be a silver bullet that deals with everything.” Esvelt added: “Eradicating malaria will require a coordinated effort involving all affected countries, all current prevention and treatment methods and at least one powerful new technology. That technology could be a highly protective and long-lasting vaccine, a long-lasting antimalarial drug or a series of gene-drive systems to alter or suppress the primary mosquito vectors. Vaccine and drug development have proven difficult, whereas functional gene-drive systems have been constructed in malarial mosquitoes.”

The problems caused by the Anopheles and Aedes aegypti loom large. These insects kill millions, cause irreparable health problems and have an enormous economic impact. The war against mosquito-borne diseases cannot be neglected. This is evidenced by the fact that as funding has plateaued, fatalities have started creeping up once more. As such, funding into various avenues must continue, if not increase. Fortunately, gene-editing technology may prove to be so effective it could push the issue over the crucial edge, offering hope to populations around the world. Some argue that killing off entire species is immoral as we cannot possibly know the harm this could cause to ecosystems. While that may be the case, the extermination of wild mosquito populations would be limited to species that carry diseases that are harmful to humans; there are thousands of others that are not. Neither the Anopheles nor Aedes aegypti species are of any further importance to their environments. In fact, very few mosquitoes are: those found in the Arctic, which do not carry human diseases, are a food source for birds and other insects, but these are not the mosquitoes that will be targeted. It is thanks to the work being carried out by Oxitec, Imperial College London and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine that we may soon have a solution that could save countless lives and loosen the grip that mosquitoes have on human health. tne 89

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Contents:

90 Corporate Governance 92 Data Ownership

Caring companies

As environmental crises wreak havoc across the globe, consumers are demanding more from the business world. In turn, companies are waking up to the fact that maximising shareholder profits is no longer the be-all and end-all, writes Elizabeth Matsangou Producing between six and 20 percent of the Earth’s oxygen, the incredibly biodiverse Amazon rainforest is vital to humanity, as well as to the millions of flora and fauna species that reside there. And yet, despite its importance, not enough is being done to protect it. So far this year, more than 80,000 fires have broken out in the area, most of which were the result of human activity. August was particularly bad – bad enough for the rest of the world to take notice. As the wildfires raged, shockwaves reverberated throughout the world and its media, while social media platforms buzzed with calls to action. The uproar has since faded, but it did prompt some companies to speak out about their role on this planet. On August 25, 30 multinational firms made a dramatic statement in a full-page advertisement in The New York Times. Among them were several well-known consumer brands such as the Body Shop, Ben & Jerry’s, Danone and Patagonia. “Let’s get to work,” read the title in bold lettering. Addressed specifically to Business Roundtable (BRT) CEOs, it called on them to “make real change happen”. “We are part of a community of Certified B Corporations who are walking the walk of stakeholder capitalism,” the open letter stated. “We are successful businesses that meet the highest standards of verified positive impact for our workers, customers, suppliers, communities and the environment. We operate with a better model of corporate 90

governance – which gives us, and could give you, a way to combat short-termism and the freedom to make decisions to balance profit and purpose.”

Igniting discussion The advertisement’s timing was key: the group had capitalised on the recent landmark decision from the BRT to alter its definition of the purpose of a corporation. For decades, the BRT, which is currently composed of 181 of the biggest companies in the US, had defined this purpose as making as much money as possible for shareholders, but on August 19, it redefined a corporation’s purpose as being to promote “an economy that serves all Americans”. That meant shifting from a shareholder-first principle to the notion of creating benefits for a far broader set of stakeholders, including local communities, employees and the environment. “We were certainly thrilled to see that statement, and it is totally aligned with the stakeholder governance approach,” said Ben Anderson, Executive Director for US and Canada at B Lab, the non-profit behind the B Corporation Certification. “The B Corp world… demonstrates that this can work – that you can run a successful business [based on these principles].” Speaking about the impact of the advert, Anderson told The New Economy that in addition to the media coverage garnered, it also created the opportunity for B Lab to engage with more BRT members: “In the first week since the ad came out,

a number of companies totalling a half billion dollars in revenue called up and said, ‘We want to talk, we want to engage, we want to hear how we can support the movement [and how we can] learn from you.’” He added: “There’s been others around the BRT that we had discussions with before and have been curious – [they are] realising [that] now’s the time… This is what the world is expecting of us.”

Milton’s way The primacy of shareholder value stems from the work of economist Milton Friedman. In his 1962 book Capitalism and Freedom, he wrote: “There is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game.” Though Friedman went on to explain that companies must abide by general ethical standards, and that shareholder interests do not equate to short-term profitability, that was not how his work was perceived. In fact, it

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strategy

Corporate Governance

As demonstrated by the recent Amazonian wildfires, the damage that humankind continues to inflict on our one and only planet has reached dire straits, and is quite possibly irreversible

shocked many at the time, as companies were seen as pillars of their communities. In the years since, Friedman’s notion of shareholder primacy – in its simplest form – became the bedrock of business. Decades later, this foundation has now been shaken, and for good reason. Corporations play a central role in society – how they treat their employees and the communities they’re based in, their effect on the environment and the ethical standards of their supply chains all have a considerable, direct impact on both society and the planet. How they have acted up until now is simply no longer viable. We are in crisis. As demonstrated by the Amazonian wildfires in August, the damage that humankind continues to inflict on our one and only planet has reached dire straits, and is quite possibly irreversible. Fortunately, however, the public is more aware than ever that change is needed, and it’s needed now. Given the size of many of the BRT members, particularly those in the tech

80,000 wildfires spread through the Amazon rainforest this year

7.6m

people took part in the Global Climate Strike in September

companies signed an open letter in August calling for greater corporate responsibility

world (Amazon and Apple naturally spring to mind), their reach is nothing short of extraordinary. Changing policies within these giants could make a mammoth difference to both the environment and to local communities. Luckily, there is a financial incentive to this new approach: obtaining and sustaining trust from consumers has become crucial for their custom and their loyalty. To achieve both feats, companies simply cannot seek profits alone – as a society, we increasingly demand that they care more too.

Change is afoot It’s taken some time since the global financial crisis – arguably when this movement first began – but it appears that a shift in the business world is finally underway. “You’re seeing it with shareholder activism,” Anderson said. “Many corporations are measuring ESGs [environmental, social and governance criteria], and are now recognising that it’s a material risk to not govern in this way. And so there’s pressures

from investors [and] there’s also internal pressures from management to make this shift.” The figures say as much: according to the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance, assets managed under ESG criteria in the US, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan increased from $22.9trn in 2016 to $30.7trn at the beginning of 2018. This trend is set to continue as the public becomes more vocal. Anderson referred to the climate change protests that took place in late September, which saw around 7.6 million strikers around the world call out for action. “People are waking up and expecting more from business leaders,” he told The New Economy. Naturally, changing a decades-old modus operandi is not going to happen overnight. “I think the system is really good at perpetuating the system,” Anderson noted. “And so, it does take bold leadership – it takes a willingness to shift from short-termism to long-termism. And that maybe doesn’t sound bold to you and me, but it is a bold step for companies that have moved beyond the quarterly earnings report.” While some argue that the BRT’s statement was merely lip service and the profits-first approach will continue to reign supreme, the optimists among us are inclined to think that it marked a crucial move in the right direction. Given the nature of herd mentality, it could well take some bold business leaders to catalyse a change that eventually reverberates across all industries and markets. Perhaps that time has finally come – and not a moment too soon. tne 91

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strategy

Data Ownership

What’s mine is yours When OpenAI developed software powerful enough to write hyperrealistic fake news, it decided not to release it to the public for fear it could be exploited. But then, two graduates built a version of the program using the original code, prompting debate on ownership in the murky world of open-source code, writes Sophie Perryer Consider these two passages: “For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come when we have shuffled off this mortal coil.” And: “If death, in some obscure and distant hour, strikes me still as I slept, if I yet dream.” While William Shakespeare wrote the first, an ultra-powerful artificial intelligence (AI) program imitated the Bard’s style in the second – and yet, the two are almost indistinguishable. The program, called GPT-2, was developed by AI lab OpenAI in February. It’s able to write hyper-realistic text in any format, using nothing but a few words as a prompt. However, having perfected the software, OpenAI elected not to release it over concerns that it could be used to mass produce fake news or propaganda. Instead, the company released a watereddown version of the program along with a scientific paper explaining the significance of what it had created. OpenAI considered its decision to be watertight: it had protected the public from the program’s potentially nefarious impact. It did not foresee that two computer scientists from Brown University would be able to recreate the program and publish it online for anyone to download – but that’s exactly what Aaron Gokaslan and Vanya Cohen did. 92

The duo, aged 23 and 24, recreated OpenAI’s language-production software using code available in the public domain. They then trained it using millions of web pages and $50,000 worth of free cloud-computing tools available from Google. Unlike OpenAI, they, along with other members of the AI community, do not believe the program poses a danger to society. “OpenAI’s claim that it is somehow dangerous to release the code is just a new iteration of the ‘security through obscurity’ argument,” said Mark Taylor, CEO of Sirius and founder of the UK’s Open Source Consortium. “The argument has rightly been ridiculed widely, and has by definition been disproved by the two graduates who replicated it.” OpenAI’s decision not to release the full program was further criticised for being counterintuitive to the collaborative attitude that typically pervades when it comes to developing new code. By releasing a slimmed-down version of the code and declaring the program dangerous, the company not only invited potential copycat versions, but also ignited a debate about the power that comes with ownership of such a formidable tool.

Joint effort Ownership of any kind of code can be attributed in two ways: through either a proprietary or an open-source licence. “The key difference is who is allowed to see it and modify it,” explained Taylor. “Proprietary licences treat code as ‘secret sauce’ and only allow the owner to modify and improve it, whereas open-source licences take the scientific approach of not only allowing others to modify, but also encouraging peer review.” The latter type is preferred by developers, particularly within the AI community, as the nascent nature of much of the technology means it is highly unlikely to be perfect first time round. Making it public allows others to modify it and improves the quality of the code over time. “No matter how good an engineer, people are fallible and if other experts can check their work, errors can be identified and corrected,” Taylor told The New Economy. “One never knows where or from whom the next genius idea can come from... With access to, and the ability to modify or contribute to,

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OpenAI had protected the public from GPT-2’s potentially nefarious impact. It did not foresee that two computer scientists from Brown University would be able to recreate the program and publish it online for anyone to download

source code means a product can be rapidly improved and even transformed into class-leading software.” Cohen also argued in an interview with Wired that by releasing the full version of the code rather than declaring it dangerous, OpenAI would not have drawn so much attention to its invention. He told Wired that his recreation “allows everyone to have an important conversation about security, and researchers to help secure against future potential abuses”.

Power sharing Nevertheless, some argue that freely releasing code can create public safety issues, as someone with malicious motives could weaponise it. But Taylor refutes this argument. “All tools can be exploited or used for a detrimental purpose,” he told The New Economy. “Tools themselves are neutral – it is the intent of the user that matters.” In other words, he doesn’t see potential safety concerns as a justifiable reason for not releasing code into the public

domain, especially when it has numerous other innovation-related benefits. What’s more, the alternative to opensource is for companies to have in-house teams of data scientists that operate entirely within the limitations of one firm. This raises concerns about the potentially dangerous implications of concentrating that much power within the hands of a single company. “History tells us that centralising power rarely works out well,” said Taylor. “Proponents of this sort of proprietary ownership are effectively a priesthood, imploring others to trust [that they will use the code responsibly].” When code is in the public domain, it’s clear for all the world to see how it is being utilised, making it much easier to identify cases where it is being put to malicious use. Since Cohen and Gokaslan released their recreation of GPT-2 into the public domain, OpenAI has announced it is aware of at least five other copies of the program. It’s unclear whether the firm plans to take any action toward removing

these versions, or whether it even has the power to. “If you train a program using someone else’s data, the original owner of that data would normally have a claim to at least part ownership of it,” explained JohnPaul Rooney, a partner and patent attorney at intellectual property firm Withers & Rogers. “However, if the data was made freely available as part of an open-source agreement, then its original owner would forfeit any right of ownership, unless there were specific conditions of use written into the open-source agreement. In this case, it seems likely that OpenAI was aware that it was forgoing any right of ownership to programs produced as a result of releasing its datasets.” Given that it willingly released a slimmed-down version of the GPT-2 code, it’s highly unlikely that OpenAI could seek any sort of successful legal recourse for the replications. The firm has also said that it plans to release the full version of the program itself at a later point, undermining its earlier statement regarding safety concerns. This raises the question as to why it held it back in the first place, although this could simply be explained by the level of media coverage that has surrounded the staged release: by following a non-traditional path in that regard, the firm has piqued the interest of the AI community, meaning more developers have viewed and worked on the code than if the company had quietly released the entire program straight off the bat. Perhaps that was OpenAI’s plan all along. tne 93

ta l k i ng h e a d s

Promising the Moon

IT’S BEEN 50 YEARS SINCE THE SOLE OF NEIL ARMSTRONG’S BOOT BROUGHT AN END TO THE SPACE RACE, BUT TODAY, ‘MOONSHOT’ PROJECTS ARE MORE POPULAR THAN EVER. WITH ASTRONOMICAL FEES INVARIABLY INVOLVED, IT FORCES ONE TO ASK: SHOULD WE CONTINUE TO CELEBRATE THOSE WHO ATTEMPT THE SEEMINGLY IMPOSSIBLE?

Barclay Ballard

Shooting for the stars Grand ambitions, even unrealistic ones, can result in vital discoveries that contribute to the betterment of humankind. The dreamers and visionaries of the world should be celebrated, not criticised The Apollo space programme that took Neil Armstrong to the lunar surface in 1969 cost $25.8bn, or $263.8bn when adjusted for inflation. In the decades that have passed since, the endeavours of Project Apollo have not led to permanent settlements on extraterrestrial bodies, nor a glut of spacerelated assets and associated industries. For some, this is enough to deem such projects a waste of time and money. But the grand aims of the Space Race – the era-defining battle for technological supremacy between the US and Soviet Union – bore fruit in other ways. In fact, US President John F Kennedy’s insistence on putting a US citizen on the Moon by the end of the decade led to new ways of thinking that ultimately brought about important discoveries. The Apollo missions spurred developments in the fields of water purification, fire-retardant

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materials, breathing apparatus and cordless tools; subsequent space expeditions have contributed to other innovations, including artificial limbs, solar cells and MRI scans. Seemingly unintended benefits are not exclusive to extra-terrestrial projects. When Google Glass was announced in 2012, the search engine giant claimed that its newfangled spectacles represented the future of smart devices. After just a few years, and much ridicule, Google Glass was quietly discontinued – from the consumer market, at least. But the product lives on in the workplace, finding use in warehouses and factories across a multitude of industries. Boeing, for example, discovered that using the augmented-reality glasses resulted in a 30 percent reduction in the time spent on certain tasks, as well as a 90 percent improvement in the quality of first-time work. These weren’t necessarily the aims

when Google launched its ambitious foray into the world of smart eyewear, but they could continue to deliver huge benefits to countless businesses for years to come. Moonshots often deliver tangential benefits even when they fail to achieve their main aims. Today, you don’t have to look far to find individuals setting their sights on the stars – nor the people looking to shoot them down. From celebrity entrepreneurs to eccentric inventors, pioneers are trying to solve world hunger, cure debilitating diseases and create limitless clean energy. Drawing inspiration from the original moonshot, some are dreaming of taking humankind further than it’s ever been before – to Mars and beyond. Yet, every time Elon Musk, Richard Branson or any other billionaire looks to invest in intergalactic travel, AI or flying cars, the usual cry goes up that their money could be put to better use solving more immediate problems. This is a

“Moonshots often deliver tangential benefits even when they fail to achieve their main aims”

fallacy of short-term thinking. Although the challenges that moonshots solve may not always appear particularly pressing, the benefits they deliver – whether intentional or not – can be life-changing. Just ask anyone who’s been helped by medical technology developed as a result of the Apollo missions. It can’t be denied that moonshots are costly and time-consuming, nor that they are risky and sometimes fail to deliver on their promises. Still, even when that is the case, it doesn’t mean they are without merit. Thinking big means thinking differently: it means not backing down from the difficult. Moonshots are leaps in the dark, but ones that hold unexpected rewards. When William Anders (another Apollo astronaut) picked up his camera in 1968 to capture the first colour image of our home planet, he had no idea of the impact his picture would have. The photograph, which shows Earth in all its fragility suspended amid the vastness of space, has been dubbed one of the most important images ever taken. Some have even suggested that it birthed the environmental movement. An impossibly bold claim, perhaps, but when you aim high, the impossible comes into clear view.

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Sophie Perryer

Houston, we have a problem With so many societal challenges in desperate need of attention, companies should not be focusing their attention on wildly ambitious, doomed-to-fail vanity projects On July 16, 1969, Apollo 11 left the Earth’s surface, bound for uncharted territory. Its mission was quite literally a shot for the Moon at a time when no other person had walked on the surface of our closest celestial neighbour. Now, 50 years on, the implications of Neil Armstrong’s “giant leap for mankind” continue to reverberate – on a political, technical and cultural level. Project Apollo also spawned the term ‘moonshot’, which has since been adopted by the technology industry to define radical projects that are so far beyond previous achievements that to even attempt them seems preposterous. Of course, there are occasions on which shots in the dark succeed, but these are few and far between – the vast majority end in failure, often at great expense to any company foolish enough to attempt one. The Google

autumn 2012

Glass project is one such example: the technology firm invested huge amounts of time, money and energy into developing wearable augmentedreality (AR) glasses in the belief that AR would be an era-defining technology. How wrong it was. Google Glass launched in 2013 to a disengaged public who had no need for AR in their daily lives. Many were also concerned about the privacy implications of a device that could begin recording video at any moment with a simple whispered command from the user. Google had allowed its lofty ambitions to cloud its understanding of public demand – a key consideration for any firm launching a new product, but one that seems to go out of the window when it comes to moonshots. This is particularly true of Uber’s pursuit of self-driving cars – a similarly formidable project

that has been plagued by safety concerns. These came to a head in March 2018 when a woman was killed in Arizona after being hit by one of the company’s autonomous vehicles during the testing phase. In the wake of the incident, Uber shut down trials of the cars in both Arizona and California, effectively putting an end to a $20m-a-month project that was supposed to revolutionise our cities, but instead ended up costing someone their life. Uber’s moonshot tragedy is perhaps an extreme example, as the majority of technology firms working on such projects will only have their investors to answer to in the case of failure, but it also reflects the wider issue with moonshots – namely, that their very existence is evidence of the fact many tech CEOs prioritise glamorous, overly ambitious projects over the smaller innovations that truly enhance the lives of their customers. Moreover, a blind obsession with moonshots negates the fact that, often, the facilitatory infrastructure to support said projects (should they ever come to fruition) simply isn’t there. In many cities, it would not be safe or

“There are occasions on which shots in the dark succeed, but these are few and far between – the vast majority end in failure”

legal to operate self-driving cars – a fact Uber should have considered before pouring millions of dollars into its ludicrous project. There are a huge number of societal issues desperately in need of a solution. Many of these problems – from the provision of social care for an ageing population to the building of more robust infrastructure in meteorologically vulnerable places, such as the Philippines – could be solved with an injection of cash and the pioneering thinking that today’s technology firms possess in spades. It is these sorts of projects that companies should be dedicating their time and energy to, rather than costly and dangerous moonshots that offer absolutely no guarantee of success.

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t h ig s in

Water, water everywhere

CHINA’S THREE GORGES DAM, A PROJECT SO LARGE IT HAS AFFECTED THE SPEED OF THE EARTH’S ROTATION, IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HUGE QUANTITIES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY. IT HAS ALSO CAUSED SIGNIFICANT SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTION TO THE LOCAL AREA An engineering project of bewildering size, some of the statistics pertaining to the Three Gorges Dam are hard to believe. The dam, which bestrides the Yangtze River in Central China, is 7,661ft long and more than 600ft high. It required 463,000 tonnes of steel to build and is so large that the mass of water that built up behind it caused the rotation of the Earth to slow down slightly. For now, the dam is the largest in the world, but that may not be the case for much longer. Proposals are being explored for the construction of the Grand Inga Dam, which would use the power of the Congo River to generate 40,000MW of electricity – more than twice the amount currently produced by the Three Gorges Dam. If plans to build another hydroelectric megastructure do get the go-ahead, they will no doubt benefit from the successes and pitfalls that the Three Gorges Dam has already experienced. It is a project that has attracted controversy for economic, social and environmental reasons.

spin huge turbines at a rate of 75 revolutions per minute. This drives an electromagnetic generator that converts the water’s kinetic energy into electricity. The Three Gorges project also aims to open up shipping routes to China’s interior. In late 2016, the dam’s hydraulic ship lift was officially launched, boasting the capacity to raise vessels 371ft in order to pass over the dam. The system uses reinforced concrete, cables and counterweights to allow for the passage of ships weighing as much as 3,000 tonnes. While it took ships three to four hours to cross the dam using the previous system of locks, the new method takes just 40 minutes. The dam’s main goal, however, remains power generation. The project originally aimed to produce around 10 percent of China’s total energy needs, but the country’s rapid economic development has brought this target crashing down.

Outta the dam way

Sustainability was, of course, a major reason for building the dam: not only would it Construction of the Three Gorges Dam was lessen the need for fossil fuels, but it would completed in stages, taking 17 years in total. also reduce the potential for flooding furToday, the dam has a maximum electrical ther downstream. However, the project’s capacity of 18,300MW, produced by 32 green credentials ring rather hollow given generators that use high-pressure water to the ecological damage it has already caused.

Need a lift?

The project’s green credentials ring rather hollow given the ecological damage it has already caused

During construction, 1.3 million Chinese citizens were forcibly relocated to make space for the dam’s reservoir. In total, two cities, 11 counties, 116 towns and countless sites of cultural importance were flooded. The risk of geological hazards occurring, principally landslides, has also risen significantly as a result of changes to local water levels. More trouble arose earlier this year amid claims that the dam was breaking apart. Reports of an impending collapse spread across social media after one Twitter user posted a satellite image purporting to show that the dam had become deformed. Officials were quick to debunk the rumours, stating that any changes to the dam’s structural integrity remained within normal parameters. Hopefully they are right – if the dam were to collapse, the environmental, economic and human damage would be monumental. Barring catastrophe, then, the Three Gorges Dam will remain the largest hydroelectric plant in the world for the foreseeable future. Even if it is eventually usurped by the Grand Inga Dam or another such structure, it will continue to stand as a testament to humankind’s engineering brilliance; a project of scarcely believable scale. tne

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how i t works Beijing RESERVOIR CAPACITY

39.3km3

CHINA Three Gorges Dam

Dam

Shanghai

Yangtze River WATER ENTERS AT UP TO

950m3/second

1994

CONSTRUCTION STARTED

2003

Generator

THREE GORGES DAM OPENED

32x700MW turbines USE HIGH-PRESSURE WATER TO DRIVE AN ELECTROMAGNETIC GENERATOR, WHICH CONVERTS KINETIC ENERGY INTO ELECTRICITY

OVERALL LENGTH

2.3km

SOURCE: THE TIMES

The Three Gorges Dam in numbers

2,335m 463,000 LENGTH

TONNES OF STEEL REQUIRED TO BUILD

181m

18,300MW

HEIGHT

High-water depth

MAXIMUM CAPACITY

Dam wall (181m)

175m

river bottleneck Five-tier lock Transports 110 million tonnes of cargo annually

Ship lift Transports six million tonnes of cargo annually Yangtze River

110m drop

SOURCES: SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, KREBS+KIEFER

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e m a g d en

For those unwilling to relinquish the classical email format just yet, there’s Superhuman, which claims to be “the fastest email experience ever made”

RSVP to decline invitations if their diary is booked up) to pop-ups reminding you of your last message exchange with a contact. Since its launch earlier this year, Superhuman has been lauded by the who’s who of the technology sector. David Ulevitch, a partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, called it the “future of work”, while both Jager McConnell, CEO of Crunchbase, and the founders of payments firm Stripe are also rumoured to be fans. Part of Superhuman’s appeal lies in its exclusivity – the system comes with a $30-a-month price tag and is currently invitation-only, with a waiting list of more than 180,000 people, according to CEO Rahul Vohra. For Silicon Valley buffs, the subscription fee is a small price to pay to reclaim some of the time they spend emailing during a typical workday. The cachet that comes with being one of the first to use the service is simply a bonus.

the ultimate Time-waster THE AVERAGE EMPLOYEE SPENDS AN ESTIMATED 11 HOURS EVERY WEEK SENDING AND RESPONDING TO EMAILS. MORE EFFICIENT COMMUNICATION APPS NOW ENABLE US TO DEDICATE LESS TIME TO OUR INBOXES, WRITES SOPHIE PERRYER Email, the most popular communication tool of the modern workplace, could soon be obsolete. Invented in the 1960s to facilitate digital communication between workers, it has been overtaken by speedier and more efficient applications. From messaging apps with document-sharing features to inboxes with inbuilt profile pop-ups, today’s communication tools not only aim to reduce the time we spend engrossed in our inboxes, they also promise increased privacy and faster communication. One of the major disruptors of email, Slack, has seen a huge uptick in clients in recent years as workers seek more efficient ways to collaborate with their international colleagues. Founded in 2013 by Stewart Butterfield, the cloud-based chat platform now has more than 10 million daily users and was valued at $23bn when it debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in June this year. The application allows communication to be organised into chan-

nels: office water cooler chat is separated from strategic debates, making it easier for employees to choose which messages take priority, unlike an email inbox, where users have to sort through themselves. Slack’s capabilities extend well beyond sending and receiving messages – it also integrates with a number of third-party services including Dropbox, GitHub and Trello. This means employees can share files, work together on code and keep track of daily tasks, all within one platform.

Top of the line For those unwilling to relinquish the classical email format just yet, there’s Superhuman, which claims to be “the fastest email experience ever made”. Every action – whether that’s starting up the service, sending an email or searching for a contact – takes less than one tenth of a second. It boasts a host of inbuilt tools designed to save time, from keyboard functions (one allows users to send a timely

Hours spent per week by average employee looking at their emails

180,000 Number of people on the waiting list for Superhuman

Productivity boost If privacy is the priority, services such as ProtonMail, Tutanota and Runbox all provide end-to-end encrypted email services, meaning no one – not even developers at the company – can read a message’s contents. Runbox’s Norway-based data centres even run solely on renewable hydropower, minimising the environmental impact typically associated with facilities of this type. Given the amount of time and energy the average employee dedicates to sending and receiving email, it’s reasonable to expect our inboxes to work a little harder for us. After all, the more efficient and streamlined our communication apparatus, the more time we are able to dedicate to productive activities that drive businesses forward and leave us feeling more accomplished at the end of the day. It’s increasingly clear that email is no longer able to fulfil that role, making it ripe for disruption by tools that can. tne

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