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WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2022
Finance for an Equitable Recovery
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By the World Bank
The World Development Report 2022 is a practical guide to help low- and middle- income countries develop strategies to strengthen financial markets for a more equitable recovery from the COVID-19 economic crisis. Grounded in research and real-world experience, the report assesses the financial and economic impacts of COVID-19 and provides recommendations for addressing financial fragilities as nations rebuild.
Chapter 1 begins with an overview of the economic and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households and small- and medium-sized businesses and documents the governmental actions taken early in the crisis to contain the economic fallout. It highlights the impact of the crisis on preexisting fragilities that will require structural reforms and investments in the financial sector to enable recovery. Chapters 2 and 3 provide blueprints for action to facilitate recovery and address structural gaps in legal and governance rules. Chapter 2 focuses on the policies needed to support banks and avoid a credit crunch that could derail recovery, as fiscal and financial support programs are scaled back and loan defaults increase. Chapter 3 addresses the critical role of formal and informal bankruptcy provisions in helping households and small businesses reduce their debt burdens and pursue debt workouts in an orderly manner, mitigating the risks that excessive debt levels pose for recovery. Chapter 4 explores the role of technology as both a component of the recovery and as a tool that must be actively managed to ensure it serves to expand access, opportunity, and transparency in the crisis recovery. The report concludes with insights on unwinding government supports and addressing accumulated sovereign debts, and it highlights the questions that will require ongoing, targeted research.
WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT
December 2021. 150 pages. Stock no. C211730 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1730-4). US$48.50
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GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, JUNE 2021
By the World Bank
A World Bank Group Flagship Report
JUNE 2021 Global Economic Prospects
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
July 2021. 178 pages. Stock no. C211665 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1665-9). US$48.50
30th anniversary edition The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
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JOBS UNDONE
By the World Bank
It has been a decade since the first spark of the Arab Spring, when large waves of young and increasingly ambitious youth took to the streets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in search for better lives and DoingBusiness2021 isthe18thina seriesof better services. Yet, despite the optimism and hope annualstudiesinvestigatingtheregulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. It provides quantitative that brimmed at the time, the past decade has not been one of notable indicatorscovering11areasofthebusiness environment in 191 economies. The goal ofthe DoingBusiness seriesistoprovide prosperity. Turmoil continued in many countries and new conflicts and fragility emerged objective data for use by governments in designingsoundbusinessregulatorypolicies in others. Then came the corona virus (COVID-19)
andtoencourageresearchontheimportant
pandemic, increasing vulnerability and poverty, slashing dimensionsoftheregulatoryenvironment for firms.economic activity and employment, and putting tremendous pressure on the region’s already tight fiscal space. The result has been a continuously disappointing jobs reality for MENA’s sizeable and healthy working-age population. Over the past two decades, the MENA region has seen a large rise in 20-34-year-olds as a share of the population compared to other regions around the world. Yet, many youths continue to be unemployed. Youth unemployment rates have been persistently the highest in the world over the past few decades. This report takes a step back and asks: why has the jobs challenge been unmet over the past years? To answer this question, the report uses a comprehensive framework of looking at jobs in the region, with a particular focus on labor demand and the creation of more and productive jobs. Moreover, the report analyzes two important regulatory dimensions, which are labor regulations and taxes, and “gendered” laws which differentiate between men and women. Finally, the report emphasizes that the road to contestability depends on better data access and transparency, which is lacking in most MENA countries constraining evidence-based policy making and effective policy implementation
ISBN 978-1-4648-1440-2 90000
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9781464814402 SKU 211440
JOBS UNDONE
How the Middle East and North Africa Can Recover Its Lost Decades
JANUARY 2022. 200 PAGES. STOCK NO. C211735 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1735-9). US$48.50
THE FIFTH GENERATION OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY
5G as an Opportunity to Leapfrog Development
By Rami Amin, Niccolo Comini, Vivien Foster, Natalija Gelvanovska-Garcia, Kay Kim, Hyea Won Lee, Maria Claudia Pachon, Je Myung Ryu,
and Zhijun William Zhang
SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
December 2021. 200 pages. Stock no. C211604 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1604-8). US$48.50
The global race for 5G has seen countries riding a new wave of mobile technology. 5G is the next-generation mobile communication technology that enables a different level of performance and innovative applications vis-à-vis 4G, which is currently in use by most people in the world. With its debut in 2019, 5G became a reality in several countries, and it had more than 100 commercial launches by the end of 2020.
For some countries, 5G services may seem to be in a distant future; for others, 5G is the initiation into the Fourth Industrial Revolution. With an estimated impact on global GDP in the trillions of US dollars and global job additions in the millions in the next decade, 5G has the potential for an immense impact on job creation, productivity, and competitiveness. When 5G has been fully implemented, its disruptive potential threatens to make irreversible the digital divide between early and late adopters. Should countries that have yet to turn off 3G services be concerned? Emerging markets have unique characteristics that set them apart from frontier economies: rapid growth in mobile connectivity, nascent markets for fixed infrastructure, and younger populations. These factors are poised to increase the adoption of mobile broadband and demand for better connection and services. In other words, 5G may be a powerful force that will help countries leapfrog technologies and accelerate toward meeting their Sustainable Development Goals.
If so, what are the necessary steps for developing countries to prepare for the next technological wave and to ensure equitable distribution of the gains from 5G? The potential dual nature of the impact of 5G on developing countries calls for an accurate diagnosis of its implications as well as its risks. This report explores the latest innovation in mobile technology, the tremendous opportunities that could be reaped from adopting 5G, the costs and challenges associated with 5G, effective management of its associated risks, and policy considerations for developing countries to most effectively deploy and utilize the 5G network.
SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
The Sustainable Infrastructure series covers a wide range of policy topics related to network infrastructure services, including energy, multimodal transportation, information and communication technologies and digital development, water and sanitation, and urban and rural infrastructure, as well as irrigation and flood management.
BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
By César Calderón
The rising concentration of extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past quarter century can be attributed to the fact that economic growth has been slow, productivity levels and the contribution of total factor productivity to growth are still low, and growth has not been inclusive enough to put a big dent in poverty. What explains the dismal performance on labor productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the rest of the developing world? This report argues that first, physical capital is scarce, and economic activities in the region have low capital intensity relative to other regions. Second, although human capital levels were relatively similar in Sub-Saharan Africa relative to a group of East Asian Pacific countries in 1960, insufficient investment and poor outcomes led not only to relatively lower levels but also to low quality of human capital. Finally, scarce resources, compounded by the inefficiencies in their allocation across productive units (with different levels of productivity), translate into low aggregate labor productivity.
Sub-Saharan Africa needs policies to boost productivity across all sectors of economic activity and, especially in those sectors in which most poor people make their living. The region needs policies that improve productivity in the agriculture sector, foster rural development, and create jobs for youth who are joining the labor force.
September 2021. 170 pages. Stock no. C211550 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1550-8). US$39.95
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A CONTINENT-WIDE DIGITAL ECONOMY FOR AFRICA
Opportunities and Challenges for More Productive and Inclusive Growth
By the World Bank
February 2022. 200 pages. Stock no. C211737 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1737-3). US$48.50
Africa has an urgent need to boost productivity and more inclusive growth. Low digital access and use, combined with affordability challenges linked to inadequate purchasing power, skills, and limited competition, prevent digital technology (DT) adoption from playing its role in addressing productivity and inclusion challenges. These specific features of the African continent motivate this report. Additional Africa-specific characteristics also relevant for this report include: a “youth bulge” phenomenon—Africa is the region with the fastest growing labor force yet the lowest levels of human capital; a large number of countries afflicted by fragility, conflict, violence, and climate shocks; a few emerging DT innovations that already are starting to address some of Africa's specific challenges—for instance, Kenya is the first country in the world to issue government paper on a retail basis via mobile phones; and Africa is home to all 10 economies worldwide in which more adults have a mobile money account than a financial institution account.
This report is intended to provide conceptual and empirical learnings to help support the ongoing implementation of a continent-wide Digital Transformation for Africa initiative that will span the next decade to 2030. The continent-wide initiative seeks to support policies and investments across five pillars of the digital economy, namely: (1) digital infrastructure, (2) digital skills and literacy, (3) digital entrepreneurship, (4) digital financial services, and (5) digital platforms. It includes cross-cutting areas, such as implementing strong regulatory frameworks to foster competition and the “maximizing finance for development” agenda; managing data privacy and cybersecurity risks; empowering women and users in fragile and conflict and violence-afflicted states; and facilitating DT usage in areas ranging from e-government, health, and education to agriculture and e-commerce applications.
THE UPSIDE OF DIGITAL FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
How Digital Technology Adoption Can Accelerate Growth and Create Jobs
By Ana Paula Cusolito, Clément Gévaudan, Daniel Lederman, and Christina Wood
The argument that digitalization fosters economic activity has become more clear during the current crisis brought by the global COVID-19 pandemic. The authors argue that because digital technologies are general purpose technologies, usable across a wide variety of economic activities, the gains from achieving universal coverage of digital services are likely to be large and shared across the economies. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, however, appears to suffer from a “digital paradox.”Its population is characterized by excess use of social media relative to the level that would be expected, given its level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, but the region underperforms in terms of using the internet or other digital tools to make payments. The report presents evidence that the socioeconomic upside of digitalizing the economy of MENA is probably substantial: GDP per capita could rise by more than 40 percent; manufacturing revenues per units of factors of production could increase by 37 percent; employment in manufacturing could rise by 7 percent; tourist arrivals could rise by 70 percent and create jobs in the hospitality sector; long-term unemployment rates could fall to negligible levels; and female labor force participation could double to more than 40 percent. To reap these gains, universal digital access is crucial, as is widespread digital use for economic purposes. The authors explore how fast MENA could approach universal coverage and whether targeting the rollout of digital infrastructure services makes a difference. They also explore what is needed to increase the use of digital payment tools.The authors explain how more rapid gains can be achieved by targeting universal access to digital services to the underserved populations and areas. They highlight the advantages of competition and better functioning of financial and telecom sectors in fostering the adoption of digital technologies. Lastly, they emphasize the need to build societal trust in the government and related institutions, such as banks and financial services, in fostering the increased use of digital payments tools.
August 2021. 80 pages. Stock no. C211663 (ISBN: 978-14648-1663-5). US$48.50
LAND FOR PRODUCTIVE, INCLUSIVE, AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
By the World Bank
October 2021. 220 pages. Stock no. C211661 (ISBN: 9781-4648-1661-1). US$48.50
Economic uses of land include housing, ecological conservation, public space, and as a factor of production for activities in both rural and urban areas. MENA is the region where land is the most scarce as only 4.7 percent of its total land area is arable. Strikingly, although 3.9 percent of the world's population lives in MENA, it is estimated that the region only hosts 2.6 percent of the world's rural land in value terms. There are only 0.12 hectares of arable land per person in the region, a ratio that is between four and five times smaller than in North America. These figures are the result of a continuous and intensifying pattern of land degradation in the region, which is caused by multiple factors, including climate change but also overgrazing, urbanization, the exploitation of natural resources, and the failure of resource management policies. While land in MENA is becoming more scarce, the region's population is projected to increase by 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, when the region’s population will swell to at least 660 million people. Because of this massive population growth and potentially rising incomes, the demand for food and derived agricultural land will increase substantially. A manifestation of how tense the issue of agricultural land scarcity has become is the global rush for agricultural land that followed the 2008 world food price crises; this rush sent investors from scarce-land countries concerned with food insecurity issues—including several sovereign wealth funds from GCC—searching abroad for large tracts of land suitable for cultivation. A much less discussed issue, however, is that the demand for urban land is also poised to significantly increase to accommodate the projected urbanization and urban expansion trends in MENA countries.
HIDDEN DEBT
By Martin Melecky
The COVID-19 crisis, which has sent economies in South Asia and around the South Asia Development Matters world into a deep recession, has highlighted South Asia's rising debt levels and sizable hidden liabilities. State-owned enterprises, state-owned commercial Hidden Debt Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia banks, and public-private partnerships have been at the center of the rising The COVID-19 crisis, which has sent economies in South Asia and around the world into a deep recession, has highlighted South Asia’s rising debt debt wave and the latest pandemic response. Historically, South Asia has relied levels and sizable hidden liabilities. State-owned enterprises, state-owned commercial banks, and public-private partnerships have been at the center of the rising debt wave and the latest pandemic response. Historically, on these direct public interventions more than other regions. The interventions South Asia has relied on these direct public interventions more than other regions. The interventions have helped governments tackle key development challenges and rapidly deliver relief measures during crises. However, have helped governments tackle key development challenges and rapidly deliver because of their ine ciencies and weak governance, the interventions are also a signifi cant source of public indebtedness and macrofi nancial risks. relief measures during crises. However, because of their inefficiencies and weak Hidden Debt examines the trade-o between tackling development challenges through direct state presence in the market and avoiding unsustainable debt due to economic ine ciencies of such o –balance governance, the interventions are also a significant source of public indebtedness sheet operations, which greatly leverage public capital. The study and macrofinancial risks. recommends a reform agenda based on the four interrelated principles of purpose, incentives, transparency, and accountability (PITA). The reforms can mitigate the risks that o –balance sheet operations will become the source of the next fi nancial crisis in South Asia. Hidden Debt examines the tradeoff between tackling development challenges through direct state presence in the market and avoiding unsustainable debt due to economic inefficiencies of such off-balance sheet operations that greatly leverage public capital. The study recommends a reform agenda based on the four interrelated principles of purpose, incentives, transparency, and accountability (PITA). The reforms can mitigate the risks that off-balance sheet operations will become the source of the next financial crisis in the region.
www.worldbank.org/southasiahiddendebt
ISBN 978-1-4648-1667-3 SKU 211667
Melecky
Hidden Debt
Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia South Asia Development Matters
Hidden Debt
Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia
Martin Melecky
SOUTH ASIA DEVELOPMENT MATTERS
July 2021. 194 pages. Stock no. C211667 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1667-3). US$48.50
SOUTH ASIA DEVELOPMENT MATTERS
This regional flagship series serves as a vehicle for in-depth synthesis of economic and policy analysis on key development topics for South Asia. It aims to promote dialogue and debate with all of the World Bank’s partners— from policymakers to civil society organizations, academic institutions, development practitioners, and the media—and to contribute toward building consensus among all those who care about stimulating development and eradicating poverty in South Asia.
EMPLOYMENT IN CRISIS
By Joana Silva, Liliana Sousa, Truman Packard, and Raymond Robertson
WORLD BANK LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN STUDIES
Employment in Crisis
The Path to Better Jobs in a Post-COVID-19 Latin America
Joana Silva, Liliana D. Sousa, Truman G. Packard, and Raymond Robertson
WORLD BANK LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN STUDIES
July 2021. 158 pages. Stock no. C211672 (ISBN: 978-1-4648-1672-7). US$43.00
A region known for its volatility, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has suffered severe economic and social setbacks from crises—including the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises have taken their toll on careers, wage growth, and productivity. Employment in Crisis: The Path to Better Jobs in a Post-COVID-19 Latin America provides new evidence on the effects of crises on the region’s workers and firms and suggests several policy responses that can bolster longterm and inclusive economic growth. This report has three key findings. First, crises lead to persistent employment losses and accelerate structural changes away from the formal sector. This change occurs more through reductions in the creation of formal jobs than through job destruction.
Second, some workers recover from crises, while others are permanently scarred by them. Low-skilled workers can suffer up to a decade of lower earnings caused by crises, while high-skilled workers rebound quickly, exacerbating the region’s high level of inequality. Formal workers suffer smaller employment and wage losses in localities with higher rates of informality. The reduced job flows caused by crises decrease welfare, but workers in localities with more job opportunities, whether formal or informal, bounce back better.
Third, crises’ cleansing effects can increase efficiency and productivity, but these effects are dampened by the LAC region’s less competitive market structure. Rather than becoming more agile and productive during economic downturns, protected sectors and firms gain market share and crowd out others, trapping valuable resources.
