7 minute read

The economics of elecTric Vehicles for Passenger TransPorTaTion

3. With the exception of geothermal, practically all renewable energy is ultimately produced by incoming solar radiation that powers pressure gradients generating wind as well as the hydrologic cycle.

4. See the World Bank’s “Transport: Overview” web page (last updated September 29, 2022), https:// www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/overview

References

24/7 Wall St. 2020. “How Many Gas Stations Are in U.S.? How Many Will There Be in 10 Years?” MarketWatch, February 16, 2020. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-many-gas-stations-are -in-us-how-many-will-there-be-in-10-years-2020-02-16

Alabi, Oluwafisayo, Karen Turner, Gioele Figus, Antonios Katris, and Christian Calvillo. 2020. “Can Spending to Upgrade Electricity Networks to Support Electric Vehicles (EVs) Roll-Outs Unlock Value in the Wider Economy?” Energy Policy 138: 111–17.

Amnesty International. 2016. “This Is What We Die For”: Human Rights Abuses in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Power the Global Trade in Cobalt. London: Amnesty International.

Annenberg, Susan, Joshua Miller, Daven Henze, and Ray Minjares. 2019. A Global Snapshot of the Air Pollution–Related Health Impacts of Transportation Sector Emissions in 2010 and 2015. Washington, DC: International Council on Clean Transport. https://theicct.org/publications/health-impacts-transport -emissions-2010-2015

Arroyo-Arroyo, Fatima, and Vincent Vesin. 2021. Pathways to Electric Mobility in the Sahel: Two and Three-Wheelers in Bamako and Ouagadougou. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge worldbank.org/handle/10986/37046

Braithwaite, Isobel, Shuo Zhang, James B. Kirkbride, David P. J. Osborn, and Joseph F. Hayes. 2019. “Air Pollution (Particulate Matter) Exposure and Associations with Depression, Anxiety, Bipolar, Psychosis and Suicide Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Environmental Health Perspectives 127 (12): 126002. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4595

Breitschwerdt, Dirk, Andreas Cornet, Sebastian Kempf, Lukas Michor, and Martin Schmidt. 2017. The Changing Aftermarket Game –and How Automotive Suppliers Can Benefit from Arising Opportunities Washington, DC: McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and -assembly/our-insights/the-changing-aftermarket-game-and-how-automotive-suppliers-can-benefit -from-arising-opportunities

Carbon Tracker. 2021. The Sky’s the Limit: Solar and Wind Energy Potential Is 100 Times as Much as Global Energy Demand. London: Carbon Tracker. https://carbontracker.org/reports/the-skys-the-limit-solar-wind/ Cepeda, Magda, Josje Schoufour, Rosanne Freak-Poli, Chantal M. Koolhaas, Klodian Dhana, Wichor M. Bramer, and Oscar H. Franco. 2017. “Levels of Ambient Air Pollution According to Mode of Transport: A Systematic Review.” Lancet: Public Health 2 (1): e23–e34. https://doi.org/10.1016

/S2468-2667(16)30021-4

Coady, David, Ian W. H. Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le, and Baoping Shang. 2019. “Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates.” Working Paper No. 19/89, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Glob al-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509.

Cox, Brian L., and Christopher L. Mutel. 2018. “The Environmental and Cost Performance of Current and Future Motorcycles.” Applied Energy 212: 1013–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.12.100.

Cropper, Maureen, Ryna Cui, Sarath Guttikunda, and Xiao-Peng Song. 2021. “The Mortality Impacts of Current and Planned Coal-Fired Power Plants in India.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (5): e2017936118. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2017936118

Dane, Anthony, Dave Wright, and Gaylor Montmasson-Clair. 2019. “Exploring the Policy Impacts of a Transition to Electric Vehicles in South Africa.” Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies, Pretoria, South Africa.

Dasgupta, Susmita, Somik Lall, and David Wheeler. 2020. “Traffic, Air Pollution, and Distributional Impacts in Dar es Salaam: A Spatial Analysis with New Satellite Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 9185, World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33445. Deloitte. 2019. “The Transformation of Gasoline Retailing in China.” Press release, May 27, 2019. https://www2.deloitte.com/cn/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/pr-china-gasoline-retailing-development-trends-report-2019.html

European Commission, Directorate-General for Climate Action, N. Hill, S. Amaral, S. Morgan-Price, et al. 2020. Determining the Environmental Impacts of Conventional and Alternatively Fuelled Vehicles through LCA: Final Report. Brussels: European Commission; Ricardo Energy & Environment. https:// op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/1f494180-bc0e-11ea-811c-01aa75ed71a1 /language-en

Ford Motor Company. 2017. “CEO Strategic Update.” Ford Motor Company. http://s22.q4cdn .com/857684434/files/doc_presentations/2017/CEO-Strategic-Update-12.pdf

FTI Consulting. 2017. “The Impact of Electrically Chargeable Vehicles on the EU Economy: A Literature Review and Assessment.” FTI Consulting, London.

Hajat, Anjum, Charlene Hsia, and Marie S. O’Neill. 2015. “Socioeconomic Disparities and Air Pollution Exposure: A Global Review.” Current Environmental Health Reports 2 (4): 440–50. https://doi.org/10.1007 /s40572-015-0069-5.

Harto, Chris. 2020. “Electric Vehicle Ownership Costs: Today’s Electric Vehicles Offer Big Savings for Consumers.” Consumer Reports, October 2020. https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content /uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

Health Effects Institute. 2010. Traffic-Related Air Pollution: A Critical Review of the Literature on Emissions, Exposure, and Health Effects. Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute.

Helms, Hinrich, Claudia Kämper, and Udo Lambrecht. 2015. “Carbon Dioxide and Consumption Reduction through Electric Vehicles.” In Advances in Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles, edited by Bruno Scrosati, Jürgen Garche, and Werner Tillmetz. Cambridge, UK: Woodhead Publishing.

Hendryx, Michael, Keith J. Zullig, and Juhua Luo. 2020. “Impacts of Coal Use on Health.” Annual Review of Public Health 41 (1): 397–415.

Hensley, Russell, Stefan Knupfer, and Dickon Pinner. 2018. “Three Surprising Resource Implications from the Rise of Electric Vehicles.” McKinsey Quarterly , May 23, 2018. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries /automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/three-surprising-resource-implications-from-the-rise-of -electric-vehicles

Holland, Stephen P., Erin T. Mansur, Nicholas Z. Muller, and Andrew J. Yates. 2016. “Are There Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance of Local Factors.” American Economic Review 106 (12): 3700–29.

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2020. Tracking Transport 2020. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports /tracking-transport-2020

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2021a. Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Vienna: IEA.

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2021b. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions World Energy Outlook Special Report. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical -minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

INRIX Research and Graham Cookson. 2018. INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard. Kirkland, WA, and Cheshire, UK: INRIX Research. http://assets.dmagstatic.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/INRIX_2017_Traffic _Scorecard_Final_2.pdf.

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). 2020a. “How Falling Costs Make Renewables a Cost-Effective Investment.” IRENA, June 2, 2020. https://www.irena.org/newsroom/articles/2020

/Jun/How-Falling-Costs-Make-Renewables-a-Cost-effective-Investment

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). 2020b. “Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019: Latest Trends and Drivers.” IRENA webinar, June 9, 2020. https://www.irena.org/events/2020

/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2019-Latest-Trends-and-Drivers

Jaramillo, P., S. Kahn Ribeiro, P. Newman, S. Dhar, O. E. Diemuodeke, T. Kajino, D. S. Lee, S. B. Nugroho, X. Ou, A. Hammer Strømman, J. Whitehead. 2022. “Transport.” In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1049–160. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Kah, Marianne. 2018. “Electric Vehicles and Their Impact on Oil Demand: Why Forecasts Differ.” Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York. https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites /default/files/pictures/CGEP_Electric%20Vehicles%20and%20Their%20Impact%20on%20Oil%20 Demand-Why%20Forecasts%20Differ.pdf

König, Adrian, Lorenzo Nicoletti, Daniel Schröder, Sebastian Wolff, Adam Waclaw, and Markus Lienkamp. 2021. “An Overview of Parameter and Cost for Battery Electric Vehicles.” World Electric Vehicle Journal 12 (1): 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj12010021

The economics of elecTric Vehicles for Passenger TransPorTaTion

Liu, Wenjuan, and Datu B. Agusdinata. 2020. “Interdependencies of Lithium Mining and Communities Sustainability in Salar de Atacama, Chile.” Journal of Cleaner Production 260: 120838. https://doi .org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120838.

Mahdavi, Paasha, Cesar B. Martinez-Alvarez, and Michael L. Ross. 2020. “Why Do Governments Tax or Subsidize Fossil Fuels?” Working Paper 541, Center for Global Development, Washington, DC.

Meyer, Kerstin, Hinrich Helms, Claudia Kämper, Kirsten Biemann, Udo Lambrecht, and Julius Jöhrens. 2018. “Lifecycle Analysis of Electric Vehicles: Determining Factors and Improvement Potential.” Agora Verkehrswende, Berlin.

Moszoro, Marian. 2021. “The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment.” Working Paper 2021/131, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP /Issues/2021/05/06/The-Direct-Employment-Impact-of-Public-Investment-50251

Muro, Mark, Adie Tomer, Ranjitha Shivaram, and Joseph Kane. 2019. “Advancing Inclusion through Clean Energy Jobs.” Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, Washington, DC. https://think-asia .org/handle/11540/10116

NOW. 2020a. “Factsheet: Electric Mobility and Raw Materials.” Nationale Leitstelle Ladeinfrastruktur, NOW GmbH, Berlin. https://www.now-gmbh.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EN_Factsheet RohstoffeEmob_2020.pdf

NOW. 2020b. “Ladeinfrastruktur nach 2025/2030: Szenarien für den Markthochlauf” (Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for market development). Nationale Leitstelle Ladeinfrastruktur, NOW GmbH, Berlin.

NPM (Nationale Plattform Zunkunft Der Mobilitat). 2020. “Zwischenbericht zur strategischen Personalplanung.” NPM, Berlin. https://www.plattform-zukunft-mobilitaet.de/wp-content/uploads /2020/03/NPM-AG-4-1-Zwischenbericht-zur-strategischen-Personalplanung -und -Entwicklung -im-Mobilit%C3%A4tssektor.pdf

OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers). 2019. “2019 Production Statistics.” OICA, Paris. https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2019-statistics

Pek, Alyssa, Giorgia Concas, Janne Skogberg, Lucien Mathieu, and Oddvin Breiteig. 2019. “Powering a New Value Chain in the Automotive Sector: The Job Potential of Transport Electrification.” EuropeOn Electrical Contractors Association, Brussels.

Peng, Wei, Junnan Yang, Xi Lu, and Denise L. Mauzerall. 2018. “Potential Co-Benefits of Electrification for Air Quality, Health, and CO2 Mitigation in 2030 China.” Applied Energy 218: 511–19. https://doi .org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.048.

Peszko, Grzegorz, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Alexander Golub, John Ward, Dimitri Zenghelis, Cor Marijs, Anne Schopp, John A. Rogers, and Amelia Midgley. 2020. Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World: Climate Strategies for Fossil Fuel-Dependent Countries. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34011

Peters, Glen, Jan C. Minx, Christopher L. Weber, and Ottmar Edenhofer. 2011. “Growth in Emission Transfers via International Trade from 1990 to 2008.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 (21): 8903–08.

Rajper, Sarmad Z., and Johan Albrecht. 2020. “Prospects of Electric Vehicles in the Developing Countries: A Literature Review.” Sustainability 12 (5): 1906.

Roy, Rana. 2016. “The Cost of Air Pollution in Africa.” OECD Development Centre Working Papers No. 333, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlqzq77x6f8-en.

Salat, Serge. and Gerald Ollivier. 2017. Transforming the Urban Space through Transit-Oriented Development: The 3V Approach. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport /publication/transforming-the-urban-space-through-transit-oriented-development-the-3v-approach Sclar, Ryan, Camron Gorguinpour, Sebastian Castellanos, and Xiangyi Li. 2019. Barriers to Adopting Electric Buses. Washington, DC: World Resource Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/barriers-adopting -electric-buses

Sims, Ralph, Roberto Schaeffer, Felix Creutzig, Xochitl Cruz-Núñez, Marcio D’Agosto, Delia Dimitriu, Maria J. Figueroa Meza, Lew Fulton, Shigeki Kobayashi, Oliver Lah, Alan McKinnon, Peter Newman, Minggao Ouyang, James J. Schauer, Daniel Sperling, and Geetam Tiwari. 2014. “Transport.” In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 599–670. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; New York. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf

Singapore Land Transport Authority. 2013. Land Transport Master Plan 2013. Government of Singapore. https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltagov/who_we_are/statistics_and_publications/master-plans /pdf/LTMP2013Report.pdf.

Sovacool, Benjamin K., Saleem H. Ali, Morgan Bazilian, Ben Radley, Benoit Nemery, Julia Okatz, and Dustin Mulvaney. 2020. “Sustainable Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future.” Science 367 (6473): 30–33.

Sperling, Daniel. 2018. “Electric Vehicles: Approaching the Tipping Point.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 74 (1): 11–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2017.1413055

Thielmann, Axel, Martin Wietschel, Simon Funke, Anna Grimm, Tim Hettesheimer, Sabine Langkau, Antonia Loibl, Cornelius Moll, Christoph Neef, Patrick Plötz, Luisa Sievers, Luis Tercero Espinoza, and Jakob Edler. 2020. “Batteries for Electric Cars: Fact Check and Need for Action.” Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany. https://www.isi.fraunhofer .de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/cct/2020/Fact_check_Batteries_for_electric_cars.pdf

UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2020. Global Trade in Used Vehicles Report. New York: United Nations. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-trade-used-vehicles-report

UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2020. Climate Action Pathway: Transport: Action Table. New York: United Nations. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource /Climate%20Action%20Pathway%20Transport.%20Action%20Table.pdf

US Department of Energy. 2011. “All-Electric Vehicles.” US Department of Energy, Washington, DC. https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml

USGS (United States Geological Survey). 2021. Mineral Commodity Summary. Washington, DC: US Geological Survey.

Wappelhorst, Sandra. 2020. “The End of the Road? An Overview of Combustion Engine Car Phase-Out Announcements across Europe.” International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC. https://theicct.org/publications/combustion-engine-car-phase-out-EU

World Bank. 2017. “Guidance Note on Shadow Price of Carbon in Economic Analysis.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/621721519940107694/pdf/2017 -Shadow-Price-of-Carbon-Guidance-Note.pdf

World Bank. 2022. The Global Health Cost of PM2.5 Air Pollution: A Case for Action beyond 2021. International Development in Focus. Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank and Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China. 2014. Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18865

World Bank and EV100. Forthcoming. “Accelerating E-Mobility for Decarbonizing Road Transport: Experiences and Lessons of Policy-Making in China.” World Bank, Washington, DC.

World Health Organization. 2018. Global Status Report on Road Safety. Geneva: WHO. https://www worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/overview

Xing, Jianwei, Benjamin Leard, and Shangjun Li. 2021. “What Does an Electric Vehicle Replace?” NBER Working Paper 25771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. https://www worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/overview

Yalta, A. Yasemin, and A. Talha Yalta. 2017. “Dependency on Imported Oil and Its Effects on Current Account.” Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12 (10): 859–67.

Ziegler, Micah S. and Jessika E. Trancik. 2021. “Re-Examining Rates of Lithium-Ion Battery Technology Improvement and Cost Decline.” Energy & Environmental Science 14 (4): 1635–51. https:// www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/overview