References

Abdih, Y., Lopez-Murphy, P., Roitman, A., and Sahay, R. (2010). “The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?” IMF Working Paper 2010/068. Alesina, A., Tabellini, G., and Campante, F.R. (2008). “Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?” Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), pp. 1006–36. Auerbach, A. J., and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). “Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion.” In A. Alesina and F. Giavazzi. (Eds.), Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis (pp. 63-98). University of Chicago Press. Calderón, C., and Nguyen, H. (2016). “The Cyclical Nature of Fiscal Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Journal of African Economies, 25(4), pp. 548-579. Céspedes, L. F., and Velasco, A. (2014). “Was this time different? Fiscal policy in commodity republics.” Journal of Development Economics, 106, pp. 92-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.012. Corsetti, G., Meier, A., and Müller, G. J. (2012). “What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?” Economic Policy, 27(72), pp. 521-565. Drazen, A. (2000). “The political business cycle after 25 years”. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, pp. 75-117. Frankel, J. A., Vegh, C. A., and Vuletin, G. (2013). “On graduation from fiscal procyclicality.” Journal of Development Economics, 100(1), pp. 32-47. Hodrick, R., and Prescott, E. C. (1997). “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), pp. 1–16. Gatti, Roberta, Daniel Lederman, Asif Mohammed Islam, Christina A. Wood, Rachel Yuting Fan, Rana Lotfi, Mennatallah Emam Mousa, and Ha Nguyen (2022). Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty. MENA Economic Update. Washington, DC: World Bank. April. Gavin, M. and Perotti, R. (1997). “Fiscal policy in Latin America.” In B. Bernanke and J. Rotemberg (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual (pp. 11-61). MIT Press, Cambridge and London. Lane, P. (2003). “The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD.” Journal of Public Economics, 87(12), pp. 2661–2675. Kaminsky, G., Reinhart, C., and Végh, C. (2004). “When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 19, pp. 11-53. Lührmann, A., Marquardt, K., and Mechkova, V. (2020). “Constraining Governments: New Indices of Vertical, Horizontal, and Diagonal Accountability.” American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, 114(3), pp. 811820. Nordhaus, W. (1975). “The Political Business Cycle.” The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), pp. 169–90. Riascos, A., and Vegh, C. A. (2003). “Procyclical Government Spending in Developing Countries: The Role of Capital Market Imperfections.” University of California, Los Angeles and Banco de la República, Bogota, Colombia. Riera-Crichton, D., Vegh, C. A., and Vuletin, G. (2015). “Procyclical and Counter-cyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 52, pp. 15-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jimonfin.2014.11.011. Tornell, A., and Lane, P. (1999). “The Voracity Effect.” American Economic Review, 89(1), pp. 22–46. Vegh, C., Lederman, D., and Bennett, F. (2017). “Leaning Against the Wind: Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean in a Historical Perspective.” LAC Semiannual Report. World Bank, Washington, DC. Woo, J. (2009). "Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Procyclical Fiscal Policy?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(4), pp. 850-870.

Chapter 13: From Monumental to Incremental Development: Towards Economic and Social Convergence in the Middle East and North Africa

by Somik Lall