Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath

country, given that basic background information on migrants is only recorded at the time of departure. In addition, the labor market outcomes of temporary migrants in destination countries are typically unknown because administrative data from host countries cannot be linked to home-country administrative data on migrants. As a result, administrative data are currently of very limited use in understanding temporary migration from South Asia and in designing adequate supporting policies. Some nationally representative surveys in origin countries have covered temporary migrants after their return, but sample sizes are typically small, and detailed information on labor market outcomes at destination is typically lacking (Ahmed et al. 2021; Bossavie and Özden 2022). National household surveys must therefore be expanded or modified so that detailed labor migration modules capture the necessary granularity of data on return migrants. In addition, surveys targeting return migrants, such as the World Bank Bangladesh Return Migrant Survey 2018/19, could be replicated and generalized to other migrant-sending countries. Those surveys allow the collection of in-depth information on the migration and employment histories of temporary migrants at a level of detail that cannot be achieved by standard national household surveys.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ITS AFTERMATH

The COvID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic generated new challenges for South Asian migrants, but mostly exacerbated and brought to light vulnerabilities and migration system insufficiencies that already existed prior to the pandemic. The lack of diversification of migrants’ destinations and economic activities overseas greatly exposed them to the negative shocks associated with COvID-19. Indeed, South Asian migrants are concentrated in markets that have been severely hit by the COvID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. The GCC countries, the main destination for South Asian migrant workers, have been affected by the pandemic as well as by the suppressed global demand for and price of oil (World Bank 2020). A reduction in labor as well as in materials, capital, and intermediate inputs due to disruptions in transport and business caused a powerful, immediate cascade of supply contractions (IMF 2020).9 Those restrictions have been having a disproportionate impact on the construction sector (the main employment sector for low-skilled migrants from South Asia), which has been shown to expand the most during a boom and to contract the most during a recession (Dell’Ariccia et al. 2020). Many construction sites were closed because of potential infection and spread of the virus, and the risk of infection is high among migrants living in densely populated residential facilities. The hardest hit sectors include retail and wholesale trade, hospitality and leisure, manufacturing, and food service, where a large share of migrants from the region are also employed.

The sharp slowdown in economic activity and global mobility have affected temporary migrants from South Asia in numerous ways, enhancing the need for policies supporting safe and productive migration. First, in the short run, many migrant workers already in destination countries have been stranded, often with no jobs, access to health care, or ability to return (Guadagno 2020; Moroz, Shrestha, and Testaverde 2020; World Bank 2020). Second, aspiring migrants have been unable to depart because of travel restrictions imposed in a global

effort to limit the spread of the pandemic, and limited demand for foreign labor in the main destinations—the number of new deployments from the region dropped sharply in 2020 as a result of the global pandemic. In Bangladesh, the number of departures for work overseas dropped from more than 700,000 in 2019 to only 217,000 in 2020. A similar drop in new deployments was observed in Pakistan, from 625,000 in 2019 to 224,705 in 2020. Initial figures for 2021 suggest that new deployments are recovering slightly, though they remain well below 2019 levels. Finally, the COvID-19 pandemic has also led to an unprecedented number of returns to the South Asia region, even though home economies’ labor markets have been severely hit and thus have very limited capacity to absorb them. An estimated 250,000 Bangladeshis returned to the country between January and April of 2020, and estimates suggest that up to 2 million may have returned in the following months. Similarly, the government of Nepal has been preparing to repatriate 400,000 displaced workers (IOM 2020). By May of 2020, about 60,000 Pakistanis were registered to return from the United Arab Emirates alone (Al Jazeera 2020). Given the very high costs of migration from the region, migrants who had recently gone overseas and were forced to return prematurely find themselves indebted, at high rates of interest, at a time when labor market opportunities to restart economic activities at home are also quite limited. While the situation of forced returnees has been especially concerning in the context of COvID-19, the pandemic brought to light preexisting vulnerabilities among this population, which need to be addressed beyond the specific context of the pandemic.

Longer-run impacts will depend on the persistence of the pandemic and the pace of labor market recovery once the pandemic is contained. The numbers of COvID-19 cases in the GCC countries and Malaysia—the principal destinations for South Asian workers—have risen since the beginning of 2021. Implementation of vaccines is expected to bring case numbers down, though the shape of relevant epidemiological curves cannot be predicted with any accuracy. It is thus likely that the mobility restrictions will persist for some time. In any case, the global labor market is expected to recover only very gradually from the COvID-19 pandemic. Demand for services, and thereby for many types of migrant labor, will probably remain low in the short and medium terms. If and when demand for migrant labor rises again, sending countries will need support to restart managed migration systems, respond quickly, and ensure safe and productive migration amid the recovery from the pandemic.

Structural shifts in destination economies in response to the pandemic could also have longer-lasting impacts for South Asian migrant workers by shifting the type of migrant workers demanded and their volumes. Occupations deemed essential—such as frontline health care professionals—have been largely exempted from restrictions on current economic activity or new deployment. For example, health care workers from India (and the Philippines) were exempt from Saudi Arabia’s recent widespread travel ban. More generally, there are public discussions under way in higher-income economies about the growing need for more foreign health care personnel. South Asian migrant-sending countries have already been investing in the skills of their migrant workers and have been trying to diversify into higher-wage markets such as care services in East Asian economies. More intensively focusing on health care workers as potential migrants may be an effective additional way for South Asian countries to diversify the opportunities available to prospective migrant workers.10 In the future,