Countries, 2020

negative (because territory is lost), whereas coastal accretion effects can be negative or positive. For example, accretion near a harbor’s entrance may hinder ships from entering the port and lead to siltation of pathways, necessitating dredging to maintain them. Similarly, when rivers are used for shipping from the ocean to inland destinations, accreted areas can block river entrances. Furthermore, even when accreted land is not detrimental by itself, it remains unclear whether it can be used for development or recreational purposes.

In Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, more than half the coastline is subject to coastal erosion, while lower shares are reported for Algeria (table 5.1). The rightmost column of table 5.1 shows yearly land loss from coastal erosion in the four countries—ranging from about 90 hectares in Algeria to almost 250 hectares in Tunisia. The subsequent calculations of yearly direct costs arising from shore retreat are based on these values.

Quantifying the Costs of Coastal Degradation to Land Values and Built Assets

To quantify the value of coastal land lost, the unit price of land per square meter in these countries was assessed, based on market data and, where available, official statistics.3 Prices of land near the coast differ substantially based on location. Urban land prices considerably exceed rural land prices.4

These assessments show that urban land is most expensive in Morocco and least expensive in Algeria (table 5.2). Rural land prices vary less between countries, ranging from US$20 per square meter in Algeria and Morocco to US$30 in Libya. The present value of annual rents for the next 30 years is then used as an estimate of the value of land. Some assumptions had to be made to calculate the present value of

TABLE 5.2

Average Coastal Land Prices in Selected North African Countries, 2020

US$ per square meter Country Urban Rurala

Algeria Libya Morocco 350 480 650 20 30 20

Tunisia 450 25

Source: Heger and Vashold 2021. Note: Estimates are based on rapid price assessment from a combination of online property portals and official sources (where available). a. Because of data constraints, the average rural land prices do not distinguish between land used explicitly for agriculture and land that may be a building plot. Hence, they are composite prices for rural areas.