Notes

NOTES

1. The GRID framework, as laid out in World Bank and IMF (2021), refers to a set of integrated, longer-horizon strategies to repair the structural damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerate climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts while also restoring momentum on the twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. A GRID growth path would have fewer emissions, less environmental degradation, and stronger ecosystems while at the same time boosting resilience and inclusion, if managed properly. 2. For more information about the Gallup World Poll and access to its data, see http://worldview.gallup.com. 3. “Ambient (Outdoor) Air Pollution.” Online fact sheet, World Health

Organization (updated September 22, 2021): https://www.who.int/news -room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health. 4. The data and research results presented in this section were obtained using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the IHME’s Global Health

Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). It should be noted that the IHME data represent estimates for the various health effects of AAP based on global models. The figures and numbers presented in this section are derived from these global models and hence are not based on direct observation. Although it would be desirable to base the analysis on directly observed figures, data limitations and lack of comprehensive studies (discussed later in this chapter, within the policy review section) necessitated the use of estimated data as a second-best option. 5. As noted earlier, this report focuses on ambient (outdoor) air pollution rather than household (indoor) air pollution. In most of the Middle East and

North Africa economies—except for some of the poorest (namely, Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen) and in certain rural areas of other economies— indoor air pollution is not a big concern. 6. Air pollution has transboundary health impacts, because it is transported across national borders (see, for example, Anenberg et al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2017). This makes coordination at a supranational level crucial to stem the challenge presented by air pollution. 7. The link between air pollution and diabetes prevalence is discussed at length in Rajagopalan and Brook (2012). 8. As figure 3.8 shows, Malta has far lower death rates due to AAP than all other countries in the region. This is mainly due to its unique geographical location, being the only island. Furthermore, its membership in the

European Union (EU) and hence its obligation to adhere to the EU’s stricter regulations sets it apart from the other economies in this respect. 9. The higher relative effect for wasting stems from the lower prevalence of children suffering from it relative to stunting. In the sample under investigation, almost 20 percent of the children were stunted (having a low height for a certain age), whereas 8 percent of the children fit the definition of wasted (having low weight for a certain height). 10. See Barnett et al. (2006) for Australia and New Zealand, and Samet et al. (2000) for the United States. 11. Conversely, air pollution increases obesity levels by reducing physical exercise (An et al. 2018; Deschenes et al. 2020). Of course, other factors driving the comorbidity risk include smoking and unhealthy diets.

12. For China, see Chen et al. (2020); for the United States, see Son et al. (2020).

In addition, Venter et al. (2020) investigated levels of different pollutants in 27 countries worldwide using remote-sensing techniques validated with air quality monitoring stations during the spring 2020 lockdown. They found that air pollution was reduced significantly, with NO2 levels declining by 29 percent on average, ozone (O3) by 11 percent, and PM2.5 by 9 percent.

Using exposure-response functions, they estimated that 7,400 deaths and 6,600 pediatric asthma cases were avoided in the two weeks following the lockdown. 13. Kodjak (2015) provides benefit-cost analyses on several emission standards that are or will be implemented and shows that benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 1.4 to 16, depending on the emission standard considered. Blumberg (2004) conducted a cost-benefit analysis on the introduction of an ultra-lowsulfur fuels policy in Mexico City and projected that annual net benefits exceed US$9 billion. Li, Lu, and Wang (2020) evaluated the recent enforcement of high-quality gasoline standards in China and determined that they reduced air pollutants by 12.9 percent on average; the net benefit of the measures is about US$26 billion. 14. Wang et al. (2014) provide cost-benefit calculations for several such policies for which benefits significantly outweigh costs. 15. Coady et al. (2017) estimate that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies would have reduced global carbon emissions by 21 percent and deaths related to fossil-fuel-induced air pollution by 55 percent in 2015 while also raising tax revenues by 4 percent and social welfare by 2.2 percent of global GDP.

In 2015, the removal of such subsidies would have raised tax revenues by an estimated 3.8 percent of global GDP, and net economic benefits (that is, environmental benefits less economic costs) would have amounted to 1.7 percent of global GDP (Coady et al. 2019). 16. To set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the US

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated six “criteria air pollutants,” which are common air pollutants that can harm human health and the environment and cause property damage. These pollutants include PM, photochemical oxidants (including ozone), CO, sulfur oxides, NOX, and lead. The EPA calls them “criteria” air pollutants “because it sets NAAQS for them based on the criteria, which are characterizations of the latest scientific information regarding their effects on health or welfare” (“Criteria Air Pollutants,” US EPA website: https://www.epa.gov/criteria -air-pollutants). 17. For example, about 40 percent of subsidized fuel is smuggled out of Libya. 18. These countries include the GCC countries, Algeria, the Islamic Republic of

Iran, Iraq, and Libya. Syria and the Republic of Yemen are also exporting countries but to a lower degree, and trade relations have been rocked by recent unrest. 19. Source apportionment studies are bottom-up approaches to understanding air pollution concentrations, whereas emissions inventory and dispersion modeling are top-down approaches. 20. In Ahvaz, Islamic Republic of Iran, industrial processes accounted for around 38 percent of PM air pollution from anthropogenic sources, followed closely by traffic emissions (around one-third) and waste burning (10 percent), with the remainder from unspecified anthropogenic sources in 2010–11

(Sowlat et al. 2013). In Kuwait City, traffic accounted for about two-thirds of anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions in 2004–05 and industry for about one-third (Alolayan et al. 2013). In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, industry was the dominant source of PM2.5 and PM10 in 2011, accounting for almost 60 percent of PM10 emissions and close to 50 percent of PM2.5 emissions from human sources (Khodeir et al. 2012). 21. Information on Egypt’s emissions inventories comes from the World Bank’s work with the Ministry of Environment, Arab Republic of Egypt. 22. Some reports are already available on how to best reduce emissions in Greater Cairo (Larsen 2019), Tehran (Heger and Sarraf 2018), and

Riyadh (Heger et al. 2019). More and better studies on air pollution sources are a precursor to specific analyses that allow for detailed policy recommendations. 23. The IEA fuel subsidy estimates for the countries available (specified in the paragraph) are derived using the price-gap methodology. The estimates included in the paragraph capture subsidies only on transport oil.

For the IEA energy subsidies database, see https://www.iea.org/topics /energy-subsidies. 24. The economic reforms in Egypt received support in the form of a US$1.15 billion development policy financing loan from the World Bank and US$12 billion in the form of an Extended Agreement from the International

Monetary Fund. 25. For more information about Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 on

Sustainable Cities and Communities, including its specific targets and indicators, see the United Nations’ SDG 11 Knowledge Base page: https://sdgs .un.org/goals/goal11. 26. For example, evaluating the effectiveness of regulations to decrease industrial emissions set forth in China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010), Zhang et al. (2015) show that end-of-pipe facilities (like flue-gas desulfurization) and increased technology efficiency significantly reduced major industrial pollutant emissions. 27. The effectiveness of emissions taxes in increasing air quality has been shown in the case of the Chinese “pollution tax” imposed in 2018 (Hu et al. 2018).

The tax policy was generally successful in reducing levels of air pollutants like SO2, NOX, PM10, and PM2.5. However, Hu et al. (2018) stress that the significant effects were only in regions with large economic scale and in sectors with high emission intensity. Hence, it could prove useful to have different tax rates for different industries and to give administrative units some discretion in their implementation of the taxes. 28. In Western Balkan, Central European, and Baltic countries—comparable in income and development to middle-income Middle East and North Africa countries—more than 60 percent of manufacturing firms were monitoring energy consumption, and a third were forming explicit targets for it, according to the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. In addition, almost 40 percent of manufacturers in Central Europe and the Baltic states have adopted specific measures to rein in excessive energy consumption. In the Western Balkans, this figure was lower (30 percent), but that share still exceeds that of the

Middle East and North Africa surveyed group by around 10 percentage points. 29. See Zafar (2020a). This will also be discussed in more detail in chapter 4 of this report.