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Egypt’s atypical demographic trends
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YI ZHANG, ABDO S. YAZBECK, AND SAMEH EL-SAHARTY
The Arab Republic of Egypt used to have a strong track record in managing its population growth. The investment in family planning and women’s empowerment contributed to an impressive decline in births per woman, which went from 4.5 in 1988 to 3.0 in 2008 (MOHP, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ICF International 2015). Then the trend reversed and the number of births per woman climbed to 3.5 in 2014—a switch seen in only a handful of countries globally. Focusing on fertility, this chapter presents data on demographic trends and changes during this time and analyzes the reasons for these changes.
EGYPT’S ATYPICAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Between 1988 and 2004, Egypt made considerable improvements in its population and demographic trends, but the next decade saw a reversal. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined sharply, from 4.5 births per woman in 1988 to 3.5 births per woman in 2000. After that, however, the TFR was either stagnant or rising (CSDH 2008). A demographic plateau was seen, with the TFR oscillating between 3.0 and 3.3 births per woman in the first decade of the new millennium, followed by an increase to 3.5 births per woman in 2014 (World Bank 2020). According to data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), the birth rate reached its highest level in 2014: 31.3 per 1,000 inhabitants (CAPMAS 2017b).
Mortality rates decreased across all age groups. The infant mortality rate declined from 33 per 1,000 live births during 2000–04, to 22 per 1,000 live births in 2010–14; and the under-five mortality rate declined from 39 to 27 per 1,000 live births over the same period (MOHP, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ICF International 2015). The adult female mortality rate (ages 15–60 years) fell from 122.2 to 113.1 per 1,000 adult females, and the adult male mortality rate decreased from 198.3 to 189.9 per 1,000 adult males during the same period.
Overall, the annual population growth rate increased from 2.0 percent to 2.3 percent during 2010–14, in absolute terms rising from 1.4 million in 2010 to 1.9 million in 2014 (World Bank 2020). The population density climbed from 83.1 people per square kilometer in 2010 to 90.8 in 2014.
These demographic trends were reflected in the age structure of the population and in development efforts. In 2014, a clear “youth boom” was noted, with
