and EPIP 2015–2020

Axis V: Empowerment of women

As with other axes, activities and outcomes are impossible to monitor because of a lack of information at the program and national levels. From the very limited data available, it is evident that women’s share in the labor force is consistently lower than that of men (24.5 percent versus 72 percent in 2018), and female unemployment is high (21.4 percent) and concentrated in 15 governorates. Further, early marriages do take place for both females and males, notably in rural areas. Data show that 5.7 percent of females and 0.2 percent of males in 15–17 age group are married (CAPMAS 2017).

CHALLENGES FACING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ENPS 2015–2030 AND EPIP 2015–2020

An overall look at ENPS 2015–2030 and EPIP 2015–2020 demonstrates several key challenges, including in political commitment, governance, financing, and target groups.

Changing governance and leadership of the program. The strategy and plan were driven by political commitment—one that required integrating the population component into economic and social development plans under the leadership of the relatively new Ministry of Population (MOP). However, this did not materialize because of the changes to the MOP, its span of control, and leadership. Specifically, the strategy was expected to be implemented by the MOP, which had been created by raising the status of the NPC. However, the MOP was later downgraded back to the NPC under the Ministry of Health, which then became the Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP). Although initially a post was created for a deputy minister for population, it was later cancelled. Moreover, there was a rapid turnover of the leadership of the NPC, which affected its stability, its coordination and management role, and its capacity to monitor the implementation of the strategy (uNFPA 2020). These factors have led to inconsistent decision-making and plans that are not related to the population issues and goals (Dawood and Abdel latif 2019). This lack of coordination also led to two new population strategies being launched—the July 24, 2017, “Disciplined Population Strategy” and the February 18, 2020, updated “Population Awareness Strategy”—without any analysis or evaluation of the progress on EPIP 2015–2020.

Inadequate role of the private sector and civil society. ENPS 2015–2030 and EPIP 2015–2020 adopt a multisectoral framework and theory of change, but this approach is missing in practice. The channels of communication and bonds between the various stakeholders remain weak. The public sector plays a dominant role in the implementation of the population strategy and is suspicious of civil society and the private sector, which has led to mistrust between these stakeholders. Further, the difference in technological resources and skilled human resources between the private and public sectors has broadened the chasm between the two sides. Moreover, civil society members feel insecure because they are largely dependent on grants that are not always available, and the private sector is absent from the scene.

Target population. ENPS 2015–2030 and EPIP 2015–2020 assume that, following historical and global trends, those with highest fertility and most in need of FP are rural residents, the poor, and those with little or no education.

However, recent data trends for Egypt suggest quite the opposite: with the socioeconomic and political changes in Egypt, the rise in fertility has been driven by the educated, rich, and urban residents (chapter 1). Hence, the strategy and plan are not geared toward the population that is driving fertility.

Limited capacity for financial analysis. Estimation of the costs of population and FP services and the capacity to do financial modeling are lacking. budget preparation for EPIP 2015–2020 reflected weak budgeting and auditing skills. The three scenarios used to estimate the cost of programs were not realistic and did not give reasonable weights to the five axes or the various activities. The result was insufficient or unavailable financial resources for most of the activities.

Lack of attention to men. Men’s reproductive health and their role in decisions about childbearing and contraception are well recognized (Duvander et al. 2020; Inhorn and Wentzell 2011; Shawky, Soliman, and Sawires 2009; Testa, Cavalli, and Rosina 2014). Yet that role was neglected in ENPS 2015–2030, with all the axes focusing on women. Men’s central role in reproduction was not clearly addressed, and there were no programs to engage them in solving the population challenge.

Data limitations contributing to inaccurate target setting. ENPS 2015–2030 based its strategic objectives and targets, along with the M&E plan and proposed estimates for three population scenarios, on data from the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (MOHP, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ICF International 2015a). However, the data on population were updated in the 2017 census(CAPMAS 2017), indicating that the population had reached 104.2 million (including the international diaspora) by 2017. This was considerably different from the population baseline and projected estimates for the strategy, rendering its population projections inaccurate.

M&E challenges. The EPIP 2015–2020 M&E plan examines progress at three levels: initial results, intermediate results, and the final impact or outcomes. baseline and 2020 targets in the M&E framework were based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey, but these data do not align with the 2017 census data, where comparable indicators are available (CAPMAS 2018, 2020). Further, the strategy and plan only identify national targets, which do not respond to the differences in population outcomes and uneven distribution of challenges among population subgroups and across Egypt’s governorates.

Barriers to data sharing contributing to weak M&E. Although data are gathered by various programs and departments, and program or project managers may have precise documentation of activities completed and the associated expenditure, this information is not shared among institutions or even departments within the same sector. Moreover, the collected information is only on paper, and the capacity for electronic documentation is still lagging. Finally, these are data used only to verify service implementation and budgetary compliance. The M&E of programs stops at the level of outputs and does not evaluate outcomes and impact. This limitation may be caused by any number of factors, including a lack of statistical capacity, of knowledge about the importance of evaluations, of interest, or of sufficient financial resources.

Diluted focus of the implementation plan. EPIP 2015–2020 has widened the scope of its activities and identified four additional objectives for achieving results: slum redevelopment; increased job opportunities and reduced unemployment; increased access to health, social, and economic services for people ages 18–60 years with disabilities, especially females; and reduced percentage of