Egypt national population strategy 2015–30

2

A National Strategy and Plan to Address Demographic Changes

SHERINE SHAWKY AND SAMEH EL-SAHARTY

Cognizant of the challenges facing the Arab Republic of Egypt that were caused by the fertility reversal and population growth, the government launched a new strategy to bend the population growth curve in November 2014—the Egypt National Population Strategy 2015–2030 (ENPS 2015–2030). Accompanying it was the First Five-Year Population Implementation Plan 2015–2020 (EPIP 2015–2020). This chapter examines the policy change and the steps the government has taken since 2015 to enact those changes.

EGYPT NATIONAL POPULATION STRATEGY 2015–30

ENPS 2015–2030 cross-references Article 41 of the Egypt’s 2014 Constitution, which states that “the State shall implement a population program aimed at striking a balance between population growth and available resources; and shall maximize investments in human resources and improve their characteristics with the goal of achieving [the country’s] sustainable development” (unofficial translation). The 2014 Constitution also explicitly provides, for the first time, a list of rights that, if assured, would make a leap in the quality of life of the population, while also providing a precedence for a legal framework for addressing population issues.

ENPS 2015–2030 made it clear that there are two main population challenges facing the country: the reversal of the steady state of fertility decline, and the persistence of geographic disparities in population and development indicators.

Aligned with Egypt’s aspirations, ENPS 2015–2030 was built on political commitment and multisectoral collaboration. It was founded on human rights, social justice, government accountability, and respect for citizens, and it defined clear goals and axes for intervention. It entrusted the Ministry of Population (MOP)1 and the Ministry of Health, with primary responsibility for managing the population program. A summary of ENPS 2015–2030 is given in figure 2.1.

FIGURE 2.1

Summary of ENPS 2015–2030

Problem Population growth 1 Influence factors

Increase in fertility Decline in public resources, affecting the availability and quality of family planning services Increasing poverty with a rise in the share of families below the poverty line Increasing influence of the “conservative wave,” leading to a decline in reproductive rights and opposing the empowerment of women Persistence of the geographic disparity in population and development indicators Decline in social marketing efforts and a scarcity of media campaigns 2

Concepts Human rights Social justice Equity Governance and accountability 3 Principles Role of population as an element of the state’s strength Respect for population rights Respect for the family’s right to determine the number of children The state’s responsibility toward the population problem Partnership with NGOs and the private sector 4 Actors Government Health sector Nonhealth public sectors NGOs Private sector 5

Goals Improve the quality of life of Egyptian citizens Restore Egypt’s regional leadership Redraw the population map of

Egypt Achieve social justice and social peace 6

Axis I. Family Planning and Reproductive Health Assumptions Differentiation in handling the diversity of target groups Use of the potential strength of volunteerism of civil society and private sector Effective mechanism for coordination at central and local levels Use of modern tools, especially social media Updates to information system Strong component of social scientific research 7

Critical elements of success Political commitment from decision- makers Community responsibility for facing population issues Creation of a positive change in unfavorable values for development Opening of the way to apply innovative solutions relevant to the size and complexity of the population problem Construction of a potent system for monitoring and evaluating programs and activities 8

Five axes of ENPS 2015–30 (see appendix A for detail) Axis II. Adolescent and Youth Health Axis III. Education Axis IV. Communication and Social Media 9

Axis V. Empowerment of Women

Strategic objectives 2030 (see table 2.1 for details)

Source: Original figure based on Egypt National Population Strategy 2015–2030 (in Arabic). Note: ENPS = Egypt National Population Strategy; NGOs = nongovernmental organizations. 10

Finally, ENPS 2015–2030 defined a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan with a set of strategic objectives. It identified seven strategic indicators and proposed estimates for three scenarios (table 2.1) based on data from the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (MOHP, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ICF International 2015a). The strategy indicated that the baseline population size was 118.9 million and the target population in 2030 was 110.9 million.