Achievement in overall averages

3

Analysis of Demographic Changes from 2015 to 2020

SHERINE SHAWKY AND SAMEH EL-SAHARTY

This chapter focuses on the strategic objectives related to the first goal in First Five-Year Population Implementation Plan (EPIP) 2015–2020—that is, to “reduce the rate of population growth.” It aims to illustrate the progress made over the period using available data on fertility. Because the estimates and baseline for the strategic indicators were based on data from the 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), the most recent EDHS, the analysis uses the data provided by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) in the two periods, 2008–14 and 2015–20, to ensure comparability.

All the strategic indicators for demographic change, except population size, are unavailable in the CAPMAS statistics. The following analysis therefore uses the population size and proxy indicators to monitor progress on fertility. To the extent possible with the available data, the analysis illustrates the progress through overall averages and by geographic disaggregation, including distributional inequalities and their magnitude, using the relative index of dissimilarity expressed as percentages (Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion 2013).

ACHIEVEMENT IN OVERALL AVERAGES

Total fertility rate The total fertility rate (TFR) is the main indicator used in EPIP 2015–2020 to monitor progress on reducing the population growth. The main source of the baseline indicator is the 2014 EDHS (MOHP, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ICF International 2015). In the absence of more recent EDHS data, and the omission of this indicator in CAPMAS statistics, the general fertility rate (GFR) and the crude birth rate (CBR) can be used as proxy indicators to reflect the trajectory of population growth.

Between 2014 and 2019, the GFR for the Arab Republic of Egypt declined from 123 to 97 children per 1,000 women—a decrease of 21.1 percent. The CBR, according to CAPMAS (2020), was 30.2 live births per 1,000 population in 2015, decreasing to 23.4 per 1,000 population in 2019. After the CBR plateaued