Annex 6A: ECEC Systems Theory of Change

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Originally posited by Kagan and Gomez (2015) for ECEC systems, expanded by Kagan et al. (2016), and further refined for the Early Advantage study (Kagan 2018), the following theory of change takes a systems perspective. Although designed for ECEC systems rather than education systems, the theory’s central tenets can be applied to both host systems of early learning services; it provides a functional pathway, defined boundaries, observable inputs, and achievable outputs and outcomes. Presented in figure 6A.1, the theory suggests that, when essential programs and services (A) are supported by a clearly delineated infrastructure (B), they will yield an effective ECEC system (C). The system will then produce desired outputs (high-quality, equitably distributed, sustainable, and efficient services) (D); and, when these outputs are combined with family supports (E), positive outcomes in the form of positive child and family well-being will ensue (F). Econo-political (for example, demographics, social thinking and movements, governmental leadership, funding) (G) and sociocultural (for example, values, beliefs, heritages, religions) (H) contexts surround and heavily influence implementation of the theory of change.