and 2018

in 2018. Finally, compared to non-OECD countries, Colombia improved from 185.5 points below the top performer in 2009 to 183 points below in 2018 (see table 7.1). Again, the data show that even though there is some improvement, progress is slow.

High inequalities in access and quality across income levels and differences between urban and rural areas and among population groups are behind these disappointing trends in learning outcomes and the stagnation of enrollment growth. For example, net enrollment rates in upper secondary education are 57 percent for the richest quintile of the population and 21 percent for the poorest quintile and 47 percent and 31 percent in urban and rural areas, respectively. Learning outcomes mirror these inequalities. In 2018, the lowest quintile trails the richest quintile by the equivalent of three years of schooling, while rural areas trail urban areas by one year of schooling. On Prueba Saber 9—the national standardized test—the gap between the richest and the poorest students in the lowest performance level is 23 percentage points in reading (1 percent versus 24 percent) and 30 percentage points in math (4 percent versus 34 percent).4

Regional inequality is one of the main drivers of these results, and the gap in outcomes among regions is closing too slowly. Poorer regions have worse outcomes. Figure 7.3 shows negative correlations between poverty rates and upper secondary gross enrollment rates and poverty rates and learning outcomes (using the Synthetic Index of Education Quality—SIEQ).5 The rate of convergence is too slow for the large gaps observed. By using a conditional convergence model (mimicking the neoclassical growth model and conditional on fiscal performance, homicide rates, poverty, rurality, and the electoral representativeness of the elected mayor), a study conducted by the Comptroller General of the Republic (La Contraloría General de La República) in 2017 showed that if current trends were to continue, it would take up to 23, 15, and 17 years to close the gap between the municipalities with the lowest social outcomes and other municipalities in net enrollment rates in primary, secondary, and upper secondary education, respectively. For learning outcomes, at the current trends in convergence among regions, closing the gap would take 24 years (Comptroller General of the Republic 2017).

The relatively slow progress in achieving better education outcomes and closing regional gaps is a sign that the decentralization system as it is designed in Colombia might not be enough to achieve these objectives. As this chapter shows, this is partly because of the way the roles and responsibilities in the

TABLE 7.1 Highest and lowest PISA exam results for public schools, 2009 and 2018

2009 2018

OECD

Lowest Chile (410.5)

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NON-OECD COLOMBIA OECD

Peru (348) Qatar (337.5) 384.5 Chile (406.5)

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NON-OECD COLOMBIA

Dominican Republic (324.5) Dominican Republic (324.5) 388

Highest Finland (538.5) Mexico (417) Hong Kong SAR, China (570) Estonia (522.5) Mexico and Uruguay (411) Chinaa (571)

Source: PISA 2018 Results (Volume I) (database) OECD, Paris (accessed June 2020), https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2018-results -volume-i_79c489df-en;jsessionid=kK-ijxJDHcn9ojAJBN61MztF.ip-10-240-5-109. Note: OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. a. Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang.