6.15 Predicted education outcomes and district spending

FIGURE 6.15

Predicted education outcomes and district spending

Source: World Bank calculations based on data from Ministry of Finance.

budgets more effectively (and by implication are arguably less corrupt) has a stronger positive impact on school enrollment; at the same time, the author shows that increasing district dependence on intergovernmental fiscal transfers moderates the positive spending effects of those generally better performing local governments. agustina, hanjani, and lewis (2021) demonstrate that the spending of poorly governed districts is more likely to lead to weak service delivery outcomes across all major sectors, including education.

Recent research shows that some education policy initiatives do not, in any event, have the intended effects on outcomes in the sector. lewis and nguyen (2020) find no evidence that Indonesia’s compulsory schooling program has increased educational attainment, largely due to weak implementation efforts. In addition, lewis (2020) shows that the government’s vaunted 20 percent rule (which insists that all levels of government spend at least 20 percent of their