and high primary GER and falling secondary GER, 1996/97–2019/20

FIGURE 5.21

Growing primary enrollment and low and stagnating secondary enrollment, and high primary GER and falling secondary GER, 1996/97–2019/20

Children, millions, all providers 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 a. Primary and secondary enrollment

1 0 1996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20

Primary education Lower secondary Upper secondary

Gross enrollment (%) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 b. Primary and secondary GERs

20 0 1996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20

Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary

Source: World Bank 2020. Note: Data after 2017 are projected, based on the Education Sector Strategic Plan 2020–2025 and MoFPED 2020d. Prior data are from the Education Statistical Abstracts and EMIS reports, https://www.ubos.org/publications/statistical/, and from Simson 2017b. Population denominators are from Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network 2018. GER = gross enrollment rate.

this case study indicate that LG-level increases in both education nonwage per capita grants and education wage per capita grants are associated with increases in primary GERs.

The declining secondary GERs reflect both the elimination of capitation grants to support students in previously government-aided private secondary partnership schools62 and the limited availability of secondary school places for a fast-growing population. The recent net decline in secondary enrollees in Uganda from the removal of support for previously government-subsidized private secondary school places, has been estimated at about 10 percent (O’Donoghue et al. 2019). Notwithstanding the new school construction and nationalization of private schools, it may take at least five years to reverse this reduction.

Learning conditions for students are poor on average and remain uneven, with high levels of school crowding, particularly in the early grades. Studentclassroom ratios remained roughly constant between 2011 and 2017 and tend to be higher in government schools than in private schools (see figure 5.22).