Changing the Trajectory

W O R L D A F R I C A

B A N K

W O R K I N G

H U M A N

P A P E R

D E V E L O P M E N T

Changing the Trajectory Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo Sajitha Bashir

THE WORLD BANK

N O .

1 6 8

S E R I E S

W O R L D

B A N K

W O R K I N G

P A P E R

Changing the Trajectory Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo Sajitha Bashir

Africa Region Human Development Department

N O .

1 6 8

Copyright Š 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First Printing: June 2009 Printed on recycled paper 12345

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Contents Foreword .................................................................................................................................. vii Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................... x Executive Summary.................................................................................................................. xi Situation of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006........................................ xii Characteristics of the Secondary Education and Vocational Training System in Democratic Republic of Congo ........................................................................... xii Demand for Skills and Need for a Strategic Vision.....................................................xiv Perspectives for the Future .............................................................................................. xv Abbreviations and Acronyms ........................................................................................... xviii 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................ 1 Notes..................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Objectives and Structure of the Report ............................................................................. 4 Notes..................................................................................................................................... 6 3. Structure of Post-primary Education and Training......................................................... 7 Formal Secondary Education ............................................................................................ 7 Governance of Formal Secondary Education.................................................................. 9 Nonformal Education....................................................................................................... 11 Notes................................................................................................................................... 12 4. Situation of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006........................................ 13 Notes................................................................................................................................... 16 5. Formal Secondary Education............................................................................................. 19 Characteristics of Students in Secondary Schools ........................................................ 20 Teaching-Learning Conditions in Secondary Schools ................................................. 22 Internal Efficiency ............................................................................................................. 24 Learning Outcomes .......................................................................................................... 24 Notes................................................................................................................................... 29 6. Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) ........................................ 30 7. Enrollment and Learning Outcomes in Nonformal Education................................... 32 8. Cost Structure of Secondary Education........................................................................... 34 Unit Costs in Secondary Schools..................................................................................... 34 Unit Cost in Nonformal Education................................................................................. 37 Notes................................................................................................................................... 37 iii

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9. Demand for Education and Skills: Findings from the Investment Climate Assessment ............................................................................................................................... 38 Notes................................................................................................................................... 41 10. Challenges and Constraints............................................................................................. 42 Summary of Challenges ................................................................................................... 42 Demographic Pressures ................................................................................................... 43 Unviable Option: Continuing Status Quo of Exclusive Reliance on the Formal Education System ...................................................................................................... 44 11. Relevant Lessons from International Experience ........................................................ 46 Structure of Secondary Education and Technical and Vocational Education and Training ...................................................................................................................... 46 Curriculum ........................................................................................................................ 50 Teacher Preparation and Utilization .............................................................................. 50 Notes................................................................................................................................... 51 12. Expanding Opportunities for Democratic Republic of Congo Youth: Promising Avenues ................................................................................................................. 52 Principles of Reform ......................................................................................................... 52 Feasible Scenarios ............................................................................................................. 52 Impact on Enrollment Status of Youth under 15 Years of Age................................... 57 Coverage and Size of the Formal Education and Training System............................ 60 Physical and Financial Requirements of Expansion .................................................... 61 Financial Requirements of Different Policy Options ................................................... 62 Notes................................................................................................................................... 63 13. Conclusions and Recommendations.............................................................................. 64 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 64 Appendixes............................................................................................................................... 69 Appendix 1. Multilevel Model of Mathematics Score with Students and Schools Characteristics............................................................................................................ 70 Appendix 2. Determinants of Worker Earnings ........................................................... 72 References................................................................................................................................. 73

Boxes Box 2.1. Data Sources ................................................................................................................ 5 Box 11.1. Education Reform in South Africa and Madagascar.......................................... 47 Box 12.1. Structure of Simulation Model.............................................................................. 53 Box 12.2. Common Assumption Underlying Three Scenarios .......................................... 56

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Figures Figure 3.1. Structure of Education and Training System in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2005 ........................................................................................................................ 8 Figure 3.2. Approximate Distribution of Students in Secondary Education Type of School, 2003....................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4.1. Educational Attainment and Enrollment Status of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006 ................................................................................................. 14 Figure 5.1. Decomposition of Mathematics Score Variance in Grade 8 ........................... 27 Figure 5.2. Decomposition of the Science Score Variance in Grade 8............................... 28 Figure 10.1. Population Growth by Age Group, 2006–22 Projected ................................. 43 Figure 10.2. Growth in Enrollment, by Level, 2000–22 Projected: Uncontrolled Student Flow ............................................................................................ 44 Figure 12.1. Investment in Education and Training of Youth under Scenarios 1–3, 15–19 Year Olds, 2015...................................................................................................... 58 Figure 12.2. Investment in Education and Training of Youth under Different Scenarios, 20–24 Year Olds, 2020 ................................................................................... 59 Figure 13.1. Possible New Structure of Education and Training ...................................... 67 Tables Table 3.1. Nonformal Education System in Democratic Republic of Congo................... 12 Table 4.1. Status of Youth Population, 2006 (estimates, %) ............................................... 17 Table 4.2. Education Level of the “Out-of-School” Youth Population, 2006 (estimates) ................................................................................................................ 18 Table 5.1. Estimated Distribution of Democratic Republic of Congo Secondary Students

by Stream, 2006 ................................................................................................................ 20 Table 5.2. Age Distribution of Students in Grade 8 (2nd Year Secondary) Students ....... 21 Table 5.3. Distribution of Secondary Students by Parental Level of Education, Rural/Urban, and Type of School (%) ........................................................................... 21 Table 5.4. Distribution of Grade 8 Students by Family Income Source, Rural/Urban, and Type of School (%) ........................................................................................................... 22 Table 5.5. Grade 8 Students with Textbooks and School Supplies (%) ............................ 22 Table 5.6. Education and Initial Training of Grade 8 Mathematics and Science Teachers (column %)........................................................................................................................ 23 Table 5.7. Availability of Classroom Supplies in Secondary Schools (%) ........................ 24 Table 5.8. Average Scores of Grade 8 Students in Mathematics and Science (%)........... 25 Table 5.9. Grade 8 Students with a Score Lower than 25% and Higher than 75% in Mathematics ................................................................................................................. 25 Table 5.10. Average Mathematics and Science Scores of Grade 8 Students

by Province (%) ................................................................................................................ 26 Table 5.11. Average Mathematics and Science Scores of Grade 8 Students by Type of School (%) ........................................................................................................... 26 Table 8.1. Unit Costs in Public Secondary Schools, 2005.................................................... 35 Table 8.2. Distribution and Average Enrollment Size of Secondary Schools by Type of Program, 2001–02 .............................................................................................. 36 Table 8.3. Norms for Class Size in Secondary Education................................................... 36

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Table 8.4. Compliance with Class Size Norms in Secondary Schools (%) ....................... 37 Table 9.1. Median Monthly Compensation in Democratic Republic of Congo and Selected African Countries (US$) ................................................................................................................ 38 Table 9.2. Median Monthly Earning by Worker and Firm Category in Democratic Republic of Congo (US$)................................................................................................. 39 Table 11.1. Structure of Lower Secondary Education in Different Countries ................. 48 Table 11.2. Technical and Vocational Education and Training: Comparison of Program Types and Timing............................................................................................ 49 Table 12.1. Policy Goals of Scenarios .................................................................................... 55 Table 12.2. Coverage of the Education System, 2015 Projected......................................... 61 Table 12.3. Teacher and Classroom Requirements, 2015 Projected .................................. 62 Table 12.4. Summary of Financial Requirements for the Education Sector, 2015 ........... 63 Table 12.5. Subsectoral Distribution of Government Expenditure on Education, 2015 (%) ............................................................................................................................. 63 Table 13.1 Summary of Benefits and Risks of Three Scenarios ......................................... 65 Table A1.1. Multilevel Model of Mathematics Score with Students and Schools Characteristics a ................................................................................................................ 70 Table A1.2. Multilevel Model of Science Score with Students and Schools Characteristics a ................................................................................................................ 71 Table A2.1. Determinants of Worker Earnings.................................................................... 72

Foreword

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his report builds on the World Bank’s Country Status Report (CSR) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) published in 2005 and focuses on the policy challenges and options for developing post-primary education and training. The CSR delivered the first comprehensive diagnostic study of the education sector and laid the groundwork for development of a sector strategy and several sectoral interventions by development partners in primary education. While ensuring universal primary completion should continue to be the top priority of policy makers, they can ill afford to ignore the serious constraints on economic growth posed by the extremely low levels of human capital of the labor force.

The challenges outlined in Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth are not unique to the DRC. The World Bank’s Secondary Education in Africa (SEIA) synthesis report highlights many of the common issues faced by Sub-Saharan African countries. Nonetheless, the sheer magnitude of these challenges, resulting from the size of the country and over three decades of economic decline and several years of war, is overwhelming. Forty-eight percent of the population is below the age of 15. In 2006, the gross enrollment at the primary level was 65 percent with only 29 percent completing primary school. Approximately 68 percent of 12–14 year olds, numbering 3 million, are not in school. Eighty percent of youth ages 15–19 years (5 million adolescents) are not in school. Nine out of ten in this group have less than six years of education. The bulk of the new entrants into the labor force over the next two decades will not have completed primary education. Long-term economic growth in the DRC will depend critically on the ability of the government to raise the educational attainment of these new entrants.

This report highlights that many constraints to raising the educational attainment of young people reside in the education and training system, which has been run down for three decades due to lack of public financing. But solely providing additional resources to expand the existing system would not be an effective policy option. While quality is extremely low as would be expected, basic structural problems also limit flexibility and access. Those who complete primary education have few alternatives to completing a secondary cycle that lasts six years. Vocational training programs are also of long duration and provide limited competencies. Higher secondary education is divided into multiple streams, including a technical stream offering over 30 narrow craft and occupational specializations of limited relevance to the labor market. Finally, the existing system has a high unit cost structure.

This report provides detailed simulations of alternative policy options for expanding post-primary education and training, in terms of the impact on two critical outcome variables that will affect decision making: the educational attainment of young people and the cost of the policy. Three scenarios are presented in the report: expansion with the status quo, moderate reforms involving elimination of specialized streams at the secondary level and introduction of alternative nonformal education at both the primary and secondary levels, and structural reforms that include expansion vii

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Foreword

of compulsory primary education to eight years with relatively few graduates transiting to secondary education. Universal completion of primary education is clearly required for educational attainment of youth, but introducing alternative education programs for out-of-school children will also be critical. Providing eight years of universal education would dramatically improve the educational attainment of the 15–19 year old group by 2015. With various cost-rationalization measures, all three scenarios are fiscally sustainable, although different magnitudes of resources are required for different levels of the education system.

While the DRC is the central focus in this study, policy makers in other countries will also find the discussion of the trade-offs between different policies of interest.

Education policy usually focuses only on those within the education system, but programs for the out-of-school children may be the most rapid way to raise capacity within the labor force. Because of the major challenges in designing and implementing such a large-scale program, out-of-school children and youth receive scant attention from policy makers. However, addressing large-scale challenges may be worthwhile given the economic and social cost of doing nothing for the millions of youth in a country like the DRC. Similarly, changing the structure of the education system to lengthen the primary cycle has long-term benefits for the labor force, especially when the international trend is to move towards eight or nine years of basic education. This strategy may also reduce costs since secondary education is invariably more expensive than primary. Such reforms can only be carried out, however, with sustained political support and the enhancement of technical and management capacity within the education system. Further, there are trade-offs between the focus on rapidly attaining eight years of basic education and the development of higher levels of the education system.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth presents analyses and options that can provide policy makers with elements to inform the development of a holistic policy for youth in one of Africa’s the most impoverished countries. The future of the DRC depends critically on whether it harnesses the full potential of its youthful population.

Yaw Ansu Director Human Development Department Africa Region The World Bank

Abstract

A

country with enormous economic and social potential, the Democratic Republic of Congo faces the twin challenges of ensuring universal primary education and expanding opportunities for post-primary education and training for its youth. The stock of human capital, one measure of which is the educational attainment of the labor force, is extremely low in the DRC and can constrain long-term economic growth. The low primary completion rate of 29 percent (2006) is a contributor to this low educational attainment and at the same time limits the rate at which post-primary education can be expanded.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth presents an analysis of the current educational attainment and current enrollment status of youth in the 12 to 24 year age group and the education and training opportunities open to them in the formal and informal sectors. Using the results from a simulation model that incorporates enrollment in alternative education programs and the educational attainment of the out-of-school population, it discusses alternative scenarios for the development of the post-primary sector. The results of each scenario are evaluated with respect to the impact on the human capital accumulation of young people and the sustainability of public expenditures. The report offers some options for rapidly raising the educational attainment of young people who will enter the labor force in the next two decades, including expanding opportunities for alternative education and training for out-of-school children, extension of the primary cycle, and reorganization of secondary and technical/vocational education to reduce early specialization.

This study will be of interest to other African countries, education professionals, and staff of development organizations as they grapple with the challenge of expanding access to post-primary education in the context of low primary achievement and limited resources.

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Acknowledgments

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his paper was written by Sajitha Bashir and incorporates analysis (i) on education statistics, the household survey data, and projections using a simulation model produced by Jean-Bernard Rasera (consultant and education economist at the Institut de Recherche sur l’Education, Dijon); and (ii) on the Monitoring Learning Achievement survey of 8th grade students by Bruno Suchaut (consultant and Director of the Institut de Recherche sur l’Education, Dijon). Anne-Sophie Samjee (consultant) assisted in preparing tables and graphs and Hope Neighbor (consultant) prepared a first draft of international experiences. The document was processed by Nadege Nouviale.

The support of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ministry of Education and other ministries associated with education and training in providing data and other insights into the functioning of the system is gratefully acknowledged. Various officials of these ministries as well as donor partners gave useful comments on a first draft of the paper. Within the World Bank, Mourad Ezzine, Laura Frigenti, Susan Opper, and Jee-Peng Tan provided helpful comments on the paper, as did the two peer reviewers, Amit Dar and Elizabeth King.

The study was partly funded by the Education Program Development Fund.

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Executive Summary

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he government of the Democratic Republic of Congo faces difficult choices regarding the future development of its education system, especially at the postprimary levels. With an estimated primary education gross enrollment ratio (GER) of 65 percent and a completion rate of 29 percent in 2006, the clear policy priority is to ensure rapid universalization of primary education. However, the government and its development partners can ill afford to ignore the second critical challenge of expanding opportunities for post-primary education and training for DRC youth.

The educational attainment of the labor force provides one measure of the human capital stock in the population, which contributes to productivity increase and economic growth. Raising the educational attainment of new cohorts that enter the labor market is the main way through which developing countries are able to raise the human capital stock. Due to low primary completion rates, a huge proportion of the youth population aged 12–24 years old, who comprise the majority of new entrants in the labor force, have already left the education system with very low levels of human capital, and of those that are still enrolled, many will not complete even lower secondary education. The low stock of human capital in the labor force can constrain long-term economic growth. Equally significant, the growing numbers of young people who are out of school and out of work pose a serious risk to the fragile social fabric of the country.

This paper argues that in order to rapidly raise the educational attainment of young people who will enter the labor force in the next 10–15 years, DRC’s education policy should focus on three issues. These are: 1.

2.

3.

Ensure universal completion of primary education of quality.

Create opportunities for alternative education and training for out-of-school children under the age of 15, including possibilities to reenter formal education.

Consider the reorganization of the secondary education and technical/vocational education and training to move towards universal completion of eight years of education and reduce specialization at the lower secondary and upper secondary levels to achieve a simplified curriculum, higher quality, and lower cost structure.

This paper shows that provision of alternative education and moving towards universal completion of eight years of education can have dramatic impacts on the educational attainment of young people. The difference in impact on youth outcomes between maintaining the status quo and undertaking a structural reform becomes more visible over time. Moreover, this scenario is fiscally sustainable given three conditions. These are:

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1.

2.

3.

Enrollment growth at the post-primary level is managed. The emphasis, especially in higher education, should be to improve quality and relevance.

There is a greater reliance on private financing, especially for construction and textbooks.

Cost-rationalization measures in the provision of formal secondary education are adopted.

Situation of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006 Between the ages of 12 and 24 years, the foundations for learning and skills are laid.

This age group’s educational attainment (representing the stock of human capital) and current enrollment (representing ongoing investments in education) are important for the human capital stock of the labor force in the future. In this paper, this broad age group is broken down into three subcategories:

ɶ

ɶ

ɶ

12–14 years. This constitutes the theoretical age group for lower secondary education. Of the 4.35 million in this age group, 68 percent (3 million) were out of school. In this latter group, nearly all (98 percent) had not completed six years of education. Just over 30 percent (1.35 million) were in school, mainly in formal education. Half of these were still enrolled in primary school.

15–19 years. This constitutes the age group who should have completed primary education and could be enrolled in secondary education or has entered the labor force. Of the 6.62 million, close to 80 percent (5.2 million) were out of school (which included 33 percent who reported being in the labor force). Almost nine-tenths of those out of school had less than six years of primary education and were functionally illiterate. Approximately 20 percent of this age group (1.4 million) were still enrolled, the overwhelming proportion in secondary education.

20–24 years. This is the age group who would have completed secondary education and could be enrolled in tertiary education and/or be in the labor force. Of the 5.9 million individuals in this age group, approximately 93 percent were out of school (61 percent were in the labor force). Three-quarters of this group would be considered functionally illiterate. Only 7 percent of 20– 24 year olds (0.4 million) were still enrolled in education, approximately equally distributed in secondary and tertiary education.

Taking the 12–19 year age group as a whole, about 8.2 million were out of school and over 90 percent of them had less than primary education. The majority also reported being out of the labor force.

Characteristics of the Secondary Education and Vocational Training System in Democratic Republic of Congo Enrollment patterns in formal secondary education. After six years of primary education, students can enter either the long cycle formal secondary education program comprising two years of lower secondary education (tronc commun), followed by four years of higher secondary education, or the post-primary vocational program,

Executive Summary

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which offers courses varying from 1–3 years. In 2006, the total enrollment in all these programs was approximately 2 million. Less than 1 percent of secondary students were enrolled in the post-primary vocational program. In higher secondary education program, there are four streams: general, teacher training, technical, and vocational.

Again, the vocational stream attracted less than 1 percent of students. The remainder was distributed more or less equally across the other three streams.

Access to post-primary education and training is inequitable. The majority of those who attend secondary education are from the wealthier and more educated segments of the population. This is due to the high level of primary dropout, the difficulties of access, and the high opportunity costs of attending a long-duration secondary education.

Quality is low. Data on learning outcomes and teaching-learning conditions show the following:

ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ

Poor learning outcomes. In 2006 the average score on 8th grade mathematics and science tests was 40 and 46 percent, respectively, with less than 5 percent of students displaying “mastery” in mathematics.

Significant differences in learning outcomes across provinces and among schools.

Difficulties associated with teaching in a language––French––that neither teachers nor students master.

Poorly qualified teachers. The majority have only a higher secondary qualification and no preservice training.

Virtually no teaching/learning materials in classrooms. Only a blackboard and chalk are universally available.

Limited availability of textbooks. Fewer than 20 percent of 8th grade pupils have textbooks.

Very high repetition rates. Only half the students reach the terminal year without repeating a year.

High failure rates in the terminal examination leading to repetition and students leaving the system without formal qualification after primary education.

Structural problems limit flexibility and access. The system has the following characteristics:

ɶ

ɶ ɶ

For those who complete primary education, there are no credible alternatives to the lengthy (six-year) formal secondary education cycle. There is no formal certification after the tronc commun. Students who have completed the tronc commun have no additional advantage over those who have completed six years and have no other options if they fail to get into higher secondary.

The vocational training programs at both junior and secondary level also are of long duration and face low demand.

Higher formal secondary education is highly structured with little possibility of transfer between streams. The technical stream alone offers 30 subject combinations, with narrow craft and occupational specializations

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Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) does not provide knowledge and skills for the labor market. TVET has no employer participation in identifying needs or certifying the quality of graduates. Another major gap in the TVET system is that it does not provide any skills training for workers in rural areas and in the informal sector. The low demand for vocational courses reflects the perceived low quality and relevance of programs.

Nonformal education and training have limited coverage. According to household survey estimates, fewer than 200,000 individuals were enrolled in nonformal education. The traditional government-run programs suffer from fragmentation across many ministries, underfunding, and virtually no articulation with formal programs. A better example of nonformal education is the UNICEFfunded program for out-of-school children at the primary level, which has a relatively high success rate in the primary leaving exam and offers reentry to the formal system.

The unit cost structure is relatively high, especially in upper secondary education and vocational training. This is the result of very low pupil-teacher ratios (average of 20), small class sizes resulting from small schools, and high degree of specialization in the technical streams. The unit cost in the latter was about three times that in the general academic stream. Teacher salaries (including parental contributions) are low in absolute terms, and below that obtained by unskilled workers in the formal sector.

Despite the deterioration of the education system in general, there are some strengths that provide opportunities for further development. These are:

ɶ ɶ ɶ

A planning framework, including the creation of schools and appointment of teachers, has survived years of conflict. Although many norms are violated, the existence of this framework is itself a strength.

A majority of schools are under private management, which traditionally received public funding, and hence are treated as part of the public sector.

A regulated system of household financing of teachers’ salaries and other operational expenditures has enabled the formal education system to survive when public financing collapsed.

Demand for Skills and Need for a Strategic Vision DRC employers do not report a shortage of skills as a major constraint. This is not surprising because, on the one hand, the education system has continued to grow despite years of conflict and, on the other hand, the upswing in economic activity is recent.

However, skills shortages are likely to emerge as more sectors contribute to growth. The availability of skilled labor is attracts foreign direct investment (FDI), and there are strategic reasons for the government to augment this pool.

There is a broad consensus that a “human capital threshold” of eight or nine years of basic education of acceptable quality is required for countries to compete in a globalized, technology-driven economy. Public policy should aim to raise the educational attainment of workers in line with this strategic requirement.

Executive Summary

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Perspectives for the Future The paper presents three scenarios for the development of the post-primary education sector that assume 100 percent completion of primary education by 2015. We evaluate the scenarios with respect to two criteria: the impact on a rise in the human capital accumulation of young people, as given by the educational attainment of those who have terminated their education and the proportion of young people who are currently enrolled (hence, investments are continuing); and the sustainability of public and overall expenditures. The impacts are evaluated using a simulation model. The model has two unique features—the introduction of alternative education programs and the simulation of the educational attainment of the out-of-school population. An additional criterion in determining the appropriate policy option would be implementation challenges.

ɶ ɶ

ɶ

Status Quo—Scenario 1. Maintains the existing secondary education structure and does not expand alternative education. Reduces the transition rate to secondary education to 45 percent to make costs sustainable.

Moderate Reform—Scenario 2. Eliminates specialization at the secondary level and expands alternative education at both primary and lower secondary levels for the 8–15 year age group, with reentry allowed into formal education.

Reduces the transition rate as in Scenario 1.

Structural Reform—Scenario 3. Grade 8 becomes the terminal year of education for the majority of students. In the simulation model, most students are channeled to the short duration post-primary cycle after grade 6, with only 10 percent going to the academic tronc commun. Other assumptions remain as in Scenario 1.

All 3 scenarios also assume cost-rationalization measures. These include increasing class sizes and the pupil-teacher ratio and reducing the ratio of administrative staff to teachers. They also assume common quality enhancing expenditure, including gradually increasing teachers’ salary levels to that of unskilled workers in the formal sector (equivalent to about four times the per capita GDP). The new critical choices regarding financing are that all school-based recurrent expenditures (personnel and operating expenditures) would be borne by the state, while pupil expenditures (on textbooks and supplies) and construction costs are financed privately. In primary education, on the other hand, all costs would be borne by the public sector.

Macroeconomic and other assumptions are common to all three scenarios.

The main conclusions are as follows:

ɶ ɶ

Ensuring primary 100 percent primary completion will substantially raise the educational attainment of the 15–19 year age group in 2015 compared to 2006.

Between 40–45 percent will have 6 years education in all three scenarios.

The introduction of alternative education programs with substantial coverage for the 8–15 year age group and assumptions regarding reentry will further enhance the educational attainment of this age group. In the status quo

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Executive Summary

ɶ

ɶ ɶ

scenario, almost 50 percent of youth will have less than primary education; in the other two scenarios, only 30 percent will be in this category Providing eight years of universal education (structural reform scenario) will dramatically improve the educational attainment of the cohort by 2015. By 2020, almost 80 percent of the cohort will have completed eight years of education.

However, the moderate reform scenario produces a higher proportion of youth who have completed twelve years or more of education, because of the assumptions regarding student flow between sectors.

All three scenarios are fiscally sustainable, under the cost and financing assumptions. However, the structural reform scenario requires substantially higher allocation of public resources, especially to secondary education.

An important inference is that without introducing alternative education programs, the DRC cannot hope to rapidly improve the educational outcomes of its youth. Clearly, there are major implementation challenges with designing a program such as this on a reasonably large scale. However, the risks of ignoring the millions of out-of-school youth with little or no education must be weighed against these challenges.

The structural reform has major benefits, but it also poses challenges for designing and implementing a major reform. Sustained political support is required along with building up of technical and management capacity.

Finally, there are trade-offs between rapidly attaining universal education to eight years and development of higher levels of the education system.

The paper ends with five broad recommendations: 1. Create a holistic policy framework for youth aged 12–19 years.

Any policy framework should consider both those in school and those out of school, and include formal and alternative mechanisms.

2. Reconsider the structure of school education and TVET. While the simulation presents one possible option for universalizing eight years of education, it is not the only one. Another option is to extend primary education to eight years or include the tronc commun as part of a “basic education” cycle, with a restructuring of secondary education between grades 9–12. This would also include eliminating the early vocational track and possibly providing technical education and vocational training only after grade 10. Alternative schooling would be an integral part of the education system. The goal could be to move fairly rapidly to universal grade 8 completion (though not as accelerated as in Scenario 3) and greater though still selective access to higher levels.

3. Cost sharing and demand-side interventions are essential.

No matter what options are chosen, the government cannot bear all the costs of secondary education. In addition to the expenditures included in the model, additional targeted interventions for girls, children from remote areas, orphans, and so forth may

Executive Summary

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be required to offset opportunity costs or other private expenses of attending secondary level programs.

4. Prepare detailed strategies for quality improvement and improving access.

Once the broad policy direction is chosen, further detailed studies are required especially in the areas of curriculum reorganization, teacher, textbooks, and school construction to design cost-effective strategies that can be implemented.

5. Improve governance and management capacity.

No reform of post-primary education and training can take place without delineating responsibilities and accountabilities between various levels of government (central, provinces, and lower), between the public and private sectors, and at the school level.

Further, technical and management capacity needs to be built up in critical areas.

Although the challenges are great, the DRC government and people, as well as donors, will need to make considered choices and adopt new strategies to expand and improve education for the youth of the country. This will contribute to the agenda of broad-based and equitable economic growth.

Abbreviations and Acronyms CAP CFP CP CSR DRC EFA FC FDI GER ICA ICT IDA INPP INS MAP MASF MDG MJS MLA MTPS NGO n.s.

SSA TVET UN UNICEF WBAATI WDR

Vocational Aptitude Certificate (Certificat d’Aptitude Professionnelle) Vocational Training Centers (Centres de Formation Professionnelle) Centre professionelle Country Status Report Democratic Republic of Congo Education for All Congolese franc Foreign direct investment Gross enrollment ratio Investment Climate Assessment Information and communications technology International Development Association Institut National de Préparation Professionnelle National Institute of Statistics (Institut National de Statistiques) Vocational Apprenticeship Houses (Maisons d’Apprentissage Professionnel) Ministry of Social and Family Affairs (Ministère des Affaires Sociales et Famille) Millennium Development Goal Ministry of Youth and Sports (Ministère de la Jeunesse et des Sports) Monitoring of Learning Achievement (survey) Ministry of Labor and Social Protection (Ministère du Travail et de la Prévoyance Sociale) Nongovernmental organization Not significant Sub-Saharan Africa Technical and Vocational Education and Training United Nations United Nations Children’s Fund World Bank Africa-Asia Trade and Investment World Development Report

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CHAPTER 1

Introduction

E

merging from a decade-long conflict and the collapse of public finances over almost two decades, the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces stark choices regarding the future development of its education system, specifically secondary education and training. In most of the country, the school system as well as the universities have survived sustained largely by private household financing and governed by the basic administrative framework that existed prior to the conflict. The “public” education system is so called because it includes government schools and private institutions that formerly received public subsidies and are governed by the basic regulations of public institutions, even though all are now are largely privately financed. This public system has been supplemented by the vigorous growth of purely private institutions. As public finances are stabilized and the country receives external aid for education, choices regarding a subsectoral strategy for secondary education will become very important.

An IDA grant of US$150 million approved in June 2007 provides much-needed financing for the public education sector. Of this, approximately US$130 million will go to primary education and support the reduction of school fees by increasing public funding of teacher salaries, free textbooks, and classroom rehabilitation. The project objectives are to raise the primary gross enrollment ratio (GER) from an estimated 64 percent in 2007 to 75 percent in 2012, and the primary completion rate from 29 percent to 35 percent over the same period.

Despite the pressing and incontrovertible needs of primary education, the DRC can ill afford to delay the development of a strategy to upgrade the skills of its youth.

The World Bank’s recent study on secondary education in Africa, summarizing international experience, states that “Sustained economic growth is unlikely to happen unless a human capital threshold has been reached. Competitiveness in tomorrow’s global economy will require workers with at least a basic education of 9-10 years of acceptable quality and widely available opportunities for further training”.1 Further, the report argues that “Linear expansion of existing systems is not an option, especially given the constraint on resources.” These issues are pertinent for the DRC. In the absence of a change in approach, the majority of new workers will continue to enter the labor force over the next decade without having completed primary education (and hence essentially functionally illiterate) or without junior secondary education.

A strategic vision is required because, clearly, the lack of educated and skilled workers (leaving aside specialized professions) is not an immediate constraint on the growth of the formal sector in the DRC. Less than one-fifth of the manufacturing firms sampled in the recent Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) survey indicated that the 1

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availability of educated workers is a severe or major constraint for future expansion.2 This fact is hardly surprising given the severe shortage of basic infrastructure and limited access to finance and other factors that have an immediate effect on firm operations––all of which were reported as binding constraints. Moreover, the absolute number of graduates with post-primary qualifications exceeds the annual labor market requirement because the education system in the DRC has sustained itself and even expanded, despite the lack of public funding while, until recently, economic growth stagnated.

There are several reasons to take a longer term view. First, in comparison with other Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the educational attainment of DRC’s population and workforce is much lower. As the country competes in an increasingly global environment and with other SSA countries, the average education level will become a factor in attracting new investment. Second, even in the medium term, the quality of these graduates needs to be improved. The adoption of new technologies, especially information and communications technology (ICT), and the associated changes in internal organizational and work practices require different competencies and skills, even among entry-level workers. Third, the lack of skills can be a constraint in the informal sector, which employs the majority of workers.

International trends in access to post-primary education are important to bear in mind as the DRC develops an appropriate forward-looking policy. Most developing countries have moved from seeing primary education as the terminal level to universal completion of junior secondary education and gradual expansion of senior secondary education. This transition has only recently begun in Sub-Saharan Africa, but several countries such as South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have already attained 80 percent enrollment rates in junior secondary education, while others, particularly in Anglophone Africa, are moving towards universal basic education of 9–10 years.

Despite the specificity of the DRC context, these broad international trends need to be taken into account in developing a coherent policy.

The preparation of an education sector strategy, including secondary and higher education, is a priority of the government and of all the partners. The Country Status Report (CSR) on Education in the DRC published by the World Bank in 2005 provided the first comprehensive diagnostic study of the sector and laid the basis for the development of a strategy.3 Building on the analysis contained in the CSR, this study focused especially on the post-primary education and training system. A point of departure from the CSR was to examine the status of the youth population as a whole, including those who have discontinued education, rather than to focus exclusively on those enrolled in the formal secondary education system. This approach is similar to that of the World Development Report 2006 and its emphasis on developing policies to enable investment in skills in the critical formative years before a cohort enters the labor market.4 Several studies are being undertaken by the government and partners to support the development of a sector strategy. This paper makes a contribution to this work by undertaking a detailed analysis of the situation of youth, the formal and non-formal secondary education system and presenting options for expanding opportunities for education and training of youth in DRC.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

Notes World Bank, 2008a.

World Bank, 2007.

3 World Bank, 2005a.

4 World Bank, 2006.

1 2

3

CHAPTER 2

Objectives and Structure of the Report

The study on post-primary education and training had two main objectives: 1.

2.

To identify the main issues and present options for expanding access to formal secondary education and improving its quality, including restructuring lower secondary and upper secondary education.

To present alternatives for the delivery and financing of education and training services for youth outside the formal secondary/vocational education system, for entry into the labor market or reentry into the formal system.

This paper discusses findings and conclusions relating to both these points, based on (i) an analysis of available secondary data and (ii) projections of possible scenarios, based on the country context and needs and relevant international experience. The analysis explicitly considers the stock and flow of the out-of-school population that will determine the educational profile of the cohorts who will enter the labor market in the next 10 years. This analysis is done through simulations of the projected population of different age groups and the varying educational attainment that would result from different policy choices. An important contribution of this report is to suggest policy directions based on alternative scenarios for the development of the skills of youth taking into account opportunities in both the formal and alternative education and training system. The paper does not present detailed alternatives to the formal system.

This task would need to be undertaken after strategic policy decisions are taken regarding the development of the sector.1 The paper builds on the findings and conclusions of the CSR. Four broad issues were identified: (i) the relatively low quantitative coverage at the primary level with great inequalities in access and uncontrolled expansion at the secondary and higher education levels; (ii) a serious degradation of quality at all levels; (iii) a cumbersome and outdated system of educational administration; and (iv) very low levels of expenditures and an inefficient and inequitable system of financing. The high transition rate between primary and junior secondary education (about 85 percent), which had apparently increased in the 1990s, could only be sustained because relatively few children completed primary education.

The CSR concluded that the following policy questions will be critical: (i) setting realistic goals for quantitative coverage for each subsector and the extent of provision 4

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

5

in the public sector; (ii) determining strategies consistent with the goals within each subsector; (iii) fiscally sustainable costs and cost-sharing with parents that is feasible and equitable; and (iv) identifying key reforms in governance and education administration to support the goals of improved quality and efficiency .

The rest of this paper is structured in several sections. Chapter 3 outlines the structure of formal and nonformal post-primary education and training programs.

Chapter 4 presents a detailed analysis of the current status of youth in the DRC, classified according to age groups and activity status. Chapters 5, 6, and 7 cover the issues in formal, TVET, and nonformal education and training, respectively, including enrollment, internal efficiency, and quality and costs. Costs of existing secondary and vocational training programs are presented in the chapter 8, followed by an analysis of labor market outcomes from the Investment Climate Assessment in Chapter 9. After a brief summary of the challenges and constraints facing DRC (Chapter 10), Chapter 11 presents a summary of international experiences that are of relevance to the DRC. Chapter 12 offers perspectives for expanding post-primary opportunities, based on a discussion of alternative policy options, a presentation of the results of quantitative simulations of these options. The results include the impact on the activity status of youth and the physical and financial requirements. Finally, Chapter 13 discusses conclusions and recommendations.

Box 2.1. Data Sources The report is based on an analysis of the school enrollment statistics, a survey of learning achievement and data collected through interviews, and field visits during a mission in 2006. During the mission, data was collected from the Institut National des Statistiques on the activity status of the youth population and from various ministries on nonformal and vocational training programs. Due to the political situation in the DRC, additional visits were not possible.

Enrollment and demographic data Population estimates by age group are taken from the United Nations. The last census in the DRC was conducted more than four decades ago.

The last published education statistics for the whole country date from 2001–02. Although data are collected annually, those of 2002–03 were still being processed manually as of 2006. Enrollment for the years since 2002–03 has been estimated using projections from the 2001–02 and demographic a projections from the United Nations. These estimates have been updated for 2006 in this report.

The estimated enrollment figures for school education appear to be validated by another source. An education statistics report was published for the province of Bas Congo for the year 2004–05, with the b assistance of UNICEF. The estimates for this province are roughly consistent with our estimates.

As described in the CSR, household survey data seem to seriously overestimate enrollment in primary c and secondary education. The MICS 2, conducted in 2001–02, for instance, estimated the primary and secondary GER at 93 percent and 39 percent, respectively. These estimates appear highly unlikely, compared to the 64 percent and 23 percent estimated using school statistics and UN population data. A 2004 household survey (1-2-3) covering employment, the informal sector, and household consumption estimated the primary GER to be 90 percent and the secondary GER at 56 percent.

(Box continues on next page)

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Box 2.1 (continued) The CSR presents the reasons why these estimates may be unreliable, including households overreporting enrollment status. For example, children who are formally enrolled but not regularly attending due to inability to pay may be reported as enrolled in school by their parents but not be registered as enrolled in the education statistics. Almost all key informants testify to the large number of children who are out of school, and primary enrollment ratios of 90 percent seem highly unlikely given the DRC’s economic and social situation. This report therefore uses the enrollment figures projected from the school statistics.

Enrollment in nonformal education and training As there is no regular data collection for these programs, statistics were collected from the ministries involved in these programs during the mission. The reliability of these statistics cannot be verified.

However, the relatively limited coverage of these programs is confirmed by the 2004 household survey (1-2-3) as well, which indicates that approximately only 186,000 people were enrolled in a nonformal program, or less than 0.6 percent of the population aged 6 years and above. The estimates of enrollment by age provided in this report are very approximate, but they are appropriate as far as the order of magnitude is concerned.

Achievement in secondary education The only available nationwide data comes from the Monitoring of Learning Achievement (MLA) survey conducted in May 2005 in which students of 4th grade (primary) and 8th grade (2nd year of the secondary cycle) were tested in mathematics and science. The stratified, proportionate sample of schools was drawn from the 11 provinces of the country and the public and private sectors. Within the selected schools, one 4th grade or one 8th grade class was selected. Twenty students were randomly selected from each class for the tests.

The universe of the sample comprised the public and private schools enumerated in the education statistics of 2001–02 that had at least one 4th grade or 8th grade class. The final 8th grade sample consisted of 3,365 students drawn from 187 secondary schools. Besides the tests, questionnaires were administered to the sample students, mathematics and science teachers teaching the class, and school heads to collect information on the school and class environment and student background.

The MLA data provide important insights regarding the academic achievement of students and the condition of teachers and schools. However, many variables, for instance, relating to pedagogical practices, are imperfectly captured because they were self-reported. Furthermore, the cross-sectional survey method, which assesses achievement and teaching-learning conditions and processes at one point in time, limits the analysis of the determinants of achievement. Learning outcomes are influenced by the cumulative learning experience of the student and, without a pre-test baseline, it is difficult to assess the contribution of the school conditions on learning.

Activity status by age Data for persons in the labor force for the age group 10–24 years, taken from the 1-2-3 household survey conducted in 2004–05 were provided by the Institut National des Statistiques (INS). The survey covered employment, household consumption, and the informal sector.

The number of persons out of the labor force and out of school is calculated as a residual, using the population estimates of the UN. Notes: a. See World Bank, 2005a. b. Rasera 2007. c. Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS).

Notes It was originally envisaged that a second phase of the study could involve the collection of new data, including a specially designed survey of employers and household survey.

1

CHAPTER 3

Structure of Post-primary Education and Training Formal Secondary Education Entry to formal secondary schooling is automatic for students who have successfully completed six years of primary education and received a primary school leaving certificate. This certificate is awarded on the basis of a public examination and schoolbased assessments.

In common with most francophone systems in SSA, the formal secondary education system in DRC comprises a long and a short cycle. Only the former enables access to higher education. The long cycle consists of 6 years of education; the short cycle offers vocational training courses of varying duration up to 4 years.

Approximately 98 percent of students are enrolled in the long cycle, as the quality of vocational training in the short cycle has been greatly lowered by the lack of public funding over the last two decades and the limited demand for these courses.

The long cycle (henceforth, used synonymously with formal secondary education) consists of a common education of 2 years (tronc commun), followed by 4 years of specialization in three streams: general, teacher education, and technical. A national public examination (examen d’Etat) certifies the successful conclusion of secondary education and authorizes access to higher education.

The short cycle (henceforth, used synonymously with vocational training) offers a few courses as short as 6 months, but the majority last 2–3 years. In fact, resulting from the incomplete implementation of the education reform of 1980 and various laws enacted thereafter there are several “short cycles” offered in a plethora of institutions.

For example, there are “craft schools,” which prepare students who are at least 15 years old and have a primary leaving certificate for manual unskilled occupations. The duration is often 2 years and leads to a vocational aptitude certificate (certificat d’aptitude professionnelle, or CAP). There also are vocational schools that train for skilled occupations; entry is restricted to those who have successfully completed the tronc commun. The duration is of 2–3 years (hence a total of 4–5 years of post-primary training) and leads to a vocational aptitude diploma (brevet d’aptitude professionnelle).

7

Figure 3.1. Structure of Education and Training System in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2005

Nonformal education

Formal education

Degree

Academic track (cycle long)

Enrollment

Age

Vocational track

Higher education Diplôme d’Etat General

Teacher

85,000

94,000

training

91,000

5,000

95,000

101,000

102,000

5,000

2,000

Cycle

15

112,000

101,000

122,000

7,000

3,000

court

14

360,000

Technical

Tronc commun

440,000

Vocational

17 16

4,000 7,000

Vocational programs

Secondary Education

91,000

85,000

Remedial programs

8

78,000

13 12

CFPE Primary Education

552,000

11

650,000 786,000 1,004,000 1,237,000 1,899,000

Note: CFPE = Some primary education, without completion certificate.

10 Primary school

9 8 7 6

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

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The short cycle vocational institutions also include a few primary teacher training schools that accept students after the primary cycle and offer a training of 4 years, even though this qualification is no longer the accepted norm. Finally, there are higher vocational schools that are open to secondary students from the technical stream who have failed the examen d’Etat and the best students from the short cycle courses.

Students receive a certificate of vocational specialization.

During the 1980s and 1990s, as public financing of education dwindled, the secondary education system evolved in an uncoordinated fashion. The evolution was driven largely by local political initiatives to open new schools. Earlier, secondary schools had been specialized by stream (general secondary schools, teacher training institutions for training primary teachers, and technical institutions). Most of the new schools are nonspecialized and offer all three streams under one roof.

A long-standing feature of the DRC education and training system is the virtual impossibility of movement among these different tracks. Students who enter the short cycle vocational track after primary education have no further access to general secondary education. Similarly, the choice to enter one of the four different streams of higher education must be made at the end of grade 8. The interchange between the formal and nonformal systems (discussed later) is even less.

Governance of Formal Secondary Education Secondary education institutions are under the administrative responsibility of the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education and comprise publicly financed institutions and private recognized schools. Publicly financed institutions, which enroll 86 percent of students, are divided into those that are directly run by the government (state schools, or écoles non-conventionnées) and those managed by religious institutions (écoles conventionnées1). Both receive the same amount of public financing for recurrent expenditures—in practice, this is relatively small due to the collapse of public funding and in fact, most schools in the so-called “publicly financed” sector are mostly financed by households Private recognized schools do not receive any public subsidy and usually are run by individual entrepreneurs or nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). In addition, there is a group of unrecognized schools that is not captured by the official data.

When categorized by management type, schools under private management (religious and others) account for about four-fifths of enrollment while state schools account for one-fifth.

The four most important types of schools are, in order of enrollment shares: Roman Catholic, Protestant, state, and private recognized schools. These four account for approximately 94 percent of students (see figure 3.2).

As described in detail in the CSR, the DRC is fortunate in that, despite the years of conflict, many of the structures of educational administration, from central to the school level, still exist. These include school management committees and parent teacher associations. The educational administration system is supported by households whose contributions supplement the salaries of administrative and pedagogical support staff. Household charges are fixed based on consultation between the administration, teachers, and parents.

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Figure 3.2. Approximate Distribution of Students in Secondary Education Type of School, 2003

Formal secondary education 100%

Publicly financed schools 86% State schools 21%

Private unsubsidized schools 14%

Managed by religious institutions 65%

Catholic 31%

Protestant 27% Kimbanguistes 4% Salutistes 1.6% Islamic 1%

FraternitĂŠ 0.4%

Note: Publicly financed schools include schools run directly by the government (state schools) and schools managed by religious institutions. Private unsubsidized schools are those that do not receive any public funding.

Nonetheless there are many weaknesses with the existing governance mechanisms. School education administration involves four categories of entities: the Central government and the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education; the provincial government; the representatives of four main religious congregations; and the parents. As discussed in the CSR, the division of responsibilities between the state and religious institutions for the last three decades began when the private schools were nationalized in 1974 and subsequently handed back to the religious authorities in 1977. Further, each type of religious institution maintains its own vertical administrative structure. There is a proliferation of administrative structures, the financing of which places an additional burden on parents. The division of responsibilities between the central and provincial governments are also not clear, especially as the latter took up the responsibility of sanctioning the authorization of new schools and teachers without approval from the central government. Since public financing was minimal, central government had limited authority to change these decisions.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

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The CSR also notes that despite the preeminent role of households in financing school education, parent committees do not have the “voice” or power to enforce accountability over school management committees and the administrative structures of the state and the religious schools. Accounts are not maintained at the school level, and religious institutions often merge the operations of various institutions, including receipts from various sources and expenditures at various levels.

Moreover, the legal framework for private unsubsidized schools is not clear and is inherited from a time when publicly financed schools were dominant. The criteria for granting recognition are often implemented with considerable latitude, depending on local circumstances.

The classification of schools as “publicly financed” or “private unsubsidized” does not really match the current reality, where almost all financing in all types of schools is borne by parents. The existing governance and administrative structures, which were created for a period when most of the financing was provided by the state, do not match this reality. The reforms of these structures will depend to a great extent on the vision for secondary education and the role of the public sector, private sector, and households in financing, provision, and management of schools.

Nonformal Education Various systems of nonformal education are operated by three ministries: the Ministry of Social and Family Affairs (Ministère des Affaires Sociales et Famille, or MASF), Ministry of Youth and Sports (Ministère de la Jeunesse et des Sports, or MJS), and Ministry of Labor and Social Protection (Ministère du Travail et de la Prévoyance Sociale, or MTPS) (table 3.1). Other programs are operated by churches, NGOs, and international donors.

Nonformal education and skills training in the DRC are characterized by a large number of programs with little articulation or coordination among them and with very limited coverage of the target population. Those run by the MASF are probably the most numerous and offer two types of programs. The first is for children under the age of 15 years who either have never enrolled or have dropped out. The educational programs are for 3 years and are considered equivalent to primary education. Students are allowed to continue only into the short cycle secondary programs. The centers are run directly by the ministry or by private entities using the same program as that of the ministry. The second type provides functional literacy and is targeted at adults.

MASF also operates a UNICEF-supported program of remedial education that, unlike the foregoing programs, allows reentry into formal education. Children aged 8– 15 years are eligible to enter remedial education and can sit for the primary leaving examination. The majority are those who never enrolled in school or dropped out before completing 2 years of primary. The program duration is 3 years; it is offered for only half a day (morning or afternoon). After passing the examination, children can enter formal secondary schools. Those who do not pass the exam or are too old are directed toward the MASF vocational training centers. Approximately 10 percent of the remedial training centers are public; the vast majority is operated by NGOs.

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Table 3.1. Nonformal Education System in Democratic Republic of Congo MASF

MJS

MTPS

Target group

Under 15 years

Over 14 years

Enterprises: Support for creating own training centers and programs Workers: Continuous training Graduates of vocational/technical training institutes, self-financed

Type of facility

Centres de promotion sociale

Vocational training centers (CFP) Production centers (CP) Apprenticeship training in small private enterprises (CAP&MAP)

National Institute for Vocational Preparation (Institut National de Préparation Professionnelle, or INPP)

Duration

3 years

CFP: 2–3 years; short courses of 1–9 months CP: 4 years CAP: 1–9 months

Certificate

Primary level certificate

CFP: Vocational training certificate CP: Vocational aptitude certificate/Certificate of capacity CAP: Vocational aptitude certificate

Continuation

Vocational training centers giving 1–3 years training

Number of centers Operated by ministries

327

Private centers

560

Enrollment

Not available

CFP: 79 CAP: 90 MAP 80

CFP: 10,312 Others: Not available

Approx. 5,000 trainees/year

Sources: Compiled from information provided by various ministries.

Despite the degraded state of nonformal education centers, they do appear to function and offer an opportunity for children who could not go through the formal cycle. The remedial education program is better funded but the coverage is extremely limited. Total enrollment in this program is estimated to be 20,000 students.

Notes 1 Under an agreement signed with the state (26 February 1975), the state is the owner of these schools and has delegated the management to the different religious organizations.

CHAPTER 4

Situation of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006

W

e now examine the stock of human capital and the ongoing investments in education and training among the youth in the DRC in 2005–06, focusing on the 12–24 year age group. As pointed out in the World Development Report 2006, the definition of youth varies according to the country or the institution. However, in most countries, the 12–24 age range covers a period during which “important foundations are laid for learning and skills.”1 Broadly speaking, the concept of human capital relates to the skills and abilities of the population, and especially the labor force, which constitute important factors in raising productivity. Human capital can augment individual productivity and private earnings; at the macroeconomic level, it can raise economic growth. In both cases, the impacts depend on the economic environment, as well as the social and governance contexts. Apart from education and training, investments in nutrition, health, and social and cultural factors and attitudes all contribute to building up human capital.

While the importance of these factors has been acknowledged, human capital has traditionally been measured by educational attainment (usually, number of years of schooling or enrollment ratios, although more recently there have been efforts to incorporate measures of the quality of education). It is also worth emphasizing that education and training contribute not only to economic growth through augmentation of human capital, but also to other social goals such as improved health, lower fertility, and enhanced social participation and cohesion.

Despite their limitations, educational attainment and enrollment in education/training as proxy indicators of human capital have their merits as they allow relatively easy comparison over time and across countries. In particular, we are interested in these indicators for young people, who are about to or have just entered the labor force, as they will have the greatest impact on the evolution of the stock of human capital in the labor force and population as a whole.

In this paper, this broad age group is broken down into three subcategories: 1.

12–14 years: These years correspond approximately to the tronc commun of secondary education; the cut-off age of 14 years has an added significance in that children are not legally supposed to work below the age of 15.

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2.

3.

15–19 years: These years conventionally represent the age cohort who would have completed primary education and some part of whom should be enrolled in secondary education.

20–24 years: This group represents the age cohort who would have completed secondary education. In the DRC, most of this age group would have terminated investment in education, except for those in tertiary education.

The situation of youth is described by three statuses: 1.

2.

3.

Currently in labor force: These comprise individuals who, in DRC’s context, largely would have completed their education and training and would not be the target group for additional investment.

Currently not in the labor force and not enrolled in school: This group consists of those who could be potentially enrolled in education and training programs, as they are not working or looking for work.

Currently enrolled in school: This group consists of those who are continuing their investment in education.

The first two groups together represent the number of young people who are out of school. We are interested in the highest level of education attained of the first two groups together, which provides an indicator of the current stock of human capital of youth who are out of school. Regarding the third group, we are interested in the level of education in which they are currently enrolled, as it gives an indication of ongoing investments in education that can affect the future stock of human capital.

Figure 4.1 summarizes the main findings and tables 4.1 and 4.2 present the data on the situation of youth in DRC in 2005–06 (other age groups are shown for reference).

Figure 4.1. Educational Attainment and Enrollment Status of Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006 70

Currently enrolled

60

Completed education - at least 12 years

Percent

50

Completed education - at least 8 years, but less than 12 years

40 30

Completed education - at least 6 years, but less than 8 years

20 10

Completed education - less than primary or no education

0 12–14 years old

15–19 years old

Source: Calculated from INS data.

Notes: 12–14 year olds: Total 4.35 millions = 100 percent 15–19 year olds: Total 6.62 millions = 100 percent 20–24 year olds: Total 5.91 millions = 100 percent

20–24 years old

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

15

Status of Youth Population 12–14 Years

Approximately 4.35 million young people belonged to this age group, of which: ɶ Approximately 68 percent (3 million) were out of school and hence had terminated their education. ɶ Only 10 percent reported being in the labor force. The majority, comprising 59 percent (2.5 million), was neither in school nor in the labor force, although underreporting of working, given the legal age limit, is a strong possibility. It is likely that a significant proportion of these young people are working as unpaid family workers. ɶ Of the 3.0 million who were out of school, almost all did not have basic literacy or numeracy skills: 27 percent had never enrolled in formal education, and 71 percent had some primary education but had not completed 6 years. These children could potentially continue their education, particularly those who had at least some primary education, although there could be demand side constraints if there were engaged in family work, which had an opportunity cost. ɶ Just over 30 percent (1.35 million) were in school, overwhelmingly in formal education, about equally divided between primary and secondary school, even though they should have been in the latter.

Status of Youth Population 15–19 Years

Of the 6.62 million individuals in this age group: ɶ Close to 80 percent (5.2 million) were out of school. ɶ Approximately 33 percent (2.18 million) were categorized as in the labor force. ɶ Of the 5.2 million who were out of school, 90 percent were functionally illiterate.

Eighteen percent had never attended school; 70 percent had some primary education; 8 percent had completed 6 years of primary education; and 4 percent had completed 8 years of schooling. ɶ Approximately 20 percent of this age group (1.4 million) were still enrolled, the overwhelming proportion in secondary education.

Status of Youth Population 20–24 Years

Of the 5.9 million in this age group: ɶ Approximately 93 percent (5.4 million) were out of school. ɶ Sixty-one percent (3.6 million) were in the labor force. The remaining 1.9 million were not in the labor force. ɶ Of the 5.4 million who were out of school, 75 percent were functionally illiterate. Ten percent had no formal education, 65 percent had some primary education, 22 percent had a primary education leaving certificate, 11 percent had completed 8 years of education, and 3 percent had completed 12 years of upper secondary education. ɶ Only 7 percent of 20–24 year-olds (0.4 million) were still enrolled in education.

Over half of them were still enrolled in secondary education.

These data also highlight the trends in human capital formation over the last 15 years. The 20–24-year age group represents the generation that began its education at

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the time that DRC descended into civil war, following a decade during which public financing of education had dwindled. The extremely low level of human capital in this group reflects the opportunities and decisions of this generation. This age group, of whom three-quarters have less than primary education, will remain in the labor force for another 30 years.

Moreover, the educational attainment and enrollment status of the younger age groups does not portend well for a rapid augmentation of the human capital in the labor force in the coming years, if current trends continue. First, the stock of out-ofschool youth, who will not invest further in education if the present situation continues, is enormous, about 69 percent of the 12–14-year-olds and almost four-fifths of 15–19-year-olds. Second, the highest educational attainment of the majority of these young people is less than primary education. Third, of those currently enrolled, at least half are enrolled in levels of education below the theoretical levels corresponding to their age group—hence, their highest educational attainment in the future will be lower than it should be.

However, and on a more positive note, a significant aspect of the profile of out-ofschool youth in these age groups is that that they are not working or looking for work, although as stated above, there could be significant underreporting and associated opportunity costs. Many of them had some primary education. The possibility exists therefore for investing in upgrading their education and skills through alternative mechanisms and addressing demand-side constraints. On the negative side, ignoring this group of youth represents a significant social risk. .

Hence, the stock of human capital among the prospective new entrants to the labor force in the next 10 years will be very low. If this stock is to improve rapidly, universal primary completion must be achieved. However, almost half the 6–11-year-olds are out of school, and although they include those who have not yet enrolled, nearly 42 percent (1.8 million) have left the system without completing primary education (table 4.1) Equally important, efforts must be made to increase coverage in post-primary education and to provide education and training to the huge population of out-ofschool children under the age of 15.

Notes 1

World Bank, 2006.

Table 4.1. Status of Youth Population, 2006 (estimates, %) Not in labor force and out of school

Enrolled in school

Not in labor force and dropped out of formal education Some primary education, without completion certificate (CFPE)

No formal education 6–11 years %

17

12–14 years % 15–19 years % 20–24 years % 12–17 years % 12–20 years % 12–24 years %

Primary completed, without 2e Secondaire (tronc commun)

With a vocational diploma from secondary school (short cycle)

Completed the cycle long (8 years), without diplôme d’Etat

In nonformal programs

With diplôme d’Etat (upper secondary certificate

Remedial teaching

In formal education

Vocational

In primary education

In secondary education

In higher education

In labor force

Total

2,358,059

1,729,914

0

0

0

0

21,545

0

5,464,970

0

0

187,379

24

18

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.2

0.00

56

0.00

0.00

2

9,761,867 100

701,412

1,811,419

37,326

0

0

0

20,071

4,103

833,170

495,443

0

448,197

4,351,141

16

42

0.9

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.5

0.09

19

11

0.00

10

100

565,422

2,162,123

211,126

327

96,767

4,695

4,175

10,775

91,339

1,258,405

26,687

2,185,541

6,617,382

9

33

3

0.00

1

0.07

0.06

0.2

1

19

0.4

33

100

203,525

1,297,599

367,431

803

0

36,645

0

7,254

0

211,764

192,633

3,593,545

5,911,199

3

22

6

0.01

0.00

0.6

0.00

0.1

0.00

4

3

61

100

1,080,503

3,225,804

163,507

128

41,970

294

29,340

7,404

919,496

1,360,987

1,364

1,581,584

8,412,380

13

38

2

0.00

0.5

0.00

0.3

0.09

11

16

0.02

19

100

1,267,999

4,321,325

330,872

567

154,368

11,771

29,340

18,706

925,048

1,847,920

56,926

3,239,145

12,203,986

10

35

3

0.00

1

0.1

0.2

0.2

8

15

0.5

27

100

1,308,924

5,238,395

533,066

1,549

348,875

60,921

29,340

21,952

925,245

1,964,891

219,320

6,227,246

16,879,724

8

31

3

0.01

2

0.4

0.2

0.1

5

12

1.3

37

100

Source: Calculated from INS data.

Note: The age group 12–17 years corresponds to the theoretical age group for secondary education in DRC. The age group 12–20 also is shown here as it probably corresponds to the actual age of secondary education students, taking into account late entry and dropout.

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 4.2. Education Level of the “Out-of-School” Youth Population, 2006 (estimates) Received no formal education or dropped out (in or out of labor force) Dropped out

6–11 years % 12–14 years % 15– 19 years % 20–24 years % 12–17 years % 12–20 years % 12–24 years %

With a vocational diploma from secondary school (short cycle)

Completed 2e Secondaire but did not receive a diploma

With diplôme d’Etat (upper secondary certificate)

Received no formal education

Some primary education, without completion certificate (CFPE)

2,465,43 6

1,809,914

0

0

0

0

4,275,350

58

42

0

0

0

0

100

816,932

2,132,415

49,007

0

0

0

2,998,354

27

71

2

0

0

0

100

942,142

3,667,824

395,937

1,227

206,799

12,071

5,226,000

18

70

8

0.02

4

0.2

100

553,308

3,580,879

613,679

4,914

581,873

164,894

5,499,547

10

65

11

0.09

11

3

100

1,432,64 4

4,339,121

249,510

382

71,548

585

6,093,790

Primary completed, without 2e Secondaire (tronc commun)

Total outof-school population

24

71

4

0

1

0

100

1,893,28 7

6,551,621

556,102

1,905

295,567

27,563

9,326,046

20

70

6

0

3

0

100

2,308,56 7

9,379,901

1,058,724

6,147

788,672

176,965

13,718,976

17

68

8

0

6

1

100

Source: Calculated from INS data.

CHAPTER 5

Formal Secondary Education

I

n 2006 the number of students in formal secondary education (grades 7 to 12 of both long and short cycles) was estimated to be 1.98 million, a GER of 24 percent. The GER thus rose from the estimated 22 percent in 2001–02.1 Even more surprisingly, it is high compared to the secondary GER of many SSA countries, especially given DRC’s relatively low enrollment and completion rates in primary education and the very low average per capita income. However, it is lower than the average secondary GER for SSA countries of 30 percent (2004). The secondary GER ranged from less than 20 percent in Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Niger, and Rwanda to over 80 percent in Botswana, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, and South Africa.2 Another striking feature of DRC is its relatively stable GER since the 1970s. From 1977 to 2002, the average secondary GER has remained constant at between 19–24 percent3 despite political turmoil, the collapse of public funding in the last two decades, and low primary coverage. This stability contrasts with the rapid increase in the secondary GER in most SSA countries, especially in the 1990s, with an average yearly growth rate of approximately 5 percent for the region.4 DRC’s stable secondary GER is probably explained by the high transition rate to secondary education and the fact that secondary education is largely the preserve of the richest families. The primary completion rate is estimated to be less than 30 percent, but the transition rate to lower secondary education is 80 percent. Very few complete primary education, but of those who do, who also come from the richest sections of the society, the majority continue to secondary education. This also explains the relatively higher coverage at the tertiary level. In 2001-02, the coverage indicator for tertiary education was 360 students per 100,000 populations, higher than in many other SSA countries.

The estimated distribution of secondary students by stream in 2006 is shown in table 5.1. About 40 percent of secondary enrollment is in grades 7 and 8 (lower secondary), the remaining in grades 9–12 (higher secondary). A negligible proportion is enrolled in the post-primary vocational courses. Enrollment in higher secondary is split almost equally across the three streams of general, teacher training, and technical, again with negligible numbers in the vocational stream.

19

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 5.1. Estimated Distribution of DRC Secondary Students by Stream, 2006 Enrollment Total secondary enrollment

% of total

1,978,581

100.0

15,468

0.8

776,033

39.2

1,187,081

60.0

General

373,974

18.9

Teacher training

392,846

19.9

Technical

404,307

20.4

Vocational

15,953

0.8

Post-primary vocational Grades 7–8 (tronc commun) Grades 9–12

Note: Projected from 2001–02 data and information from Bas-Congo survey.

Characteristics of Students in Secondary Schools Data from the Monitoring of Learning Achievement (MLA) survey of 8th grade students confirm that the majority come from higher income groups. They also tend to be significantly older than the theoretical age. Late entry into grade 1, as a result of inability to pay fees, poor nutritional status, or distance from school, is probably an important factor in this. Intermittent attendance and repetition of primary grades also contribute to this phenomenon. The MLA survey of 4th grade students in DRC shows that 23 percent of students were already 2 years older and another 25 percent were 3 or more years older than the theoretical age for that grade.

Students in grade 8 range from 14–18 years with very high proportions of older students. The theoretical age for grade 8 students is 13 years (that is, if a student had begun grade 1 at age 6 and continued without repetition or interruption to grade 8).

However, fewer than 8 percent of students were 13 years old or younger (table 5.2).

The theoretical age is not of much relevance given the prevalence of late entry and high repetition rates in primary age. Assuming that children normally entered school at age 7 and had repeated 1 or 2 years, the probable reference age group for 8th grade students should be 14–15 years. Approximately 45 percent of students fell in this age group.

However, no fewer than 47 percent of students in grade 8 were 16 years or older.

The inequity in access to secondary education also is illustrated by the data from the MLA survey (table 5.3). It is best illustrated by the level of education of the parents, which tends to be highly correlated with income levels. Over 74 percent of students had fathers who had completed at least secondary education; 34 percent had fathers who had completed university education. Similarly, a high proportion of mothers (59 percent) had completed at least secondary education; 15 percent had university education. Given the overall low coverage of secondary and higher education in the population, these data show that the students who currently attend formal secondary schools come from a highly selective group. In urban areas and in private unsubsidized schools, the proportion of parents with university education is much higher.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

21

Table 5.2. Age Distribution of Students in Grade 8 (2nd Year Secondary) Students Total

%

Less than 14 years

257

7.6

14 years

620

18.4

15 years

896

26.6

16 years

726

21.6

17 years

421

12.5

More than 17 years

445

13.2

Source: MLA survey.

Note: N=3,365.

Table 5.3. Distribution of Secondary Students by Parental Level of Education, Rural/Urban, and Type of School (%) Urban

Rural

Public

Private

Total

Father Cannot read or write Can read and write Primary education Secondary education Higher education Total

2.4

5.4

4.2

1.8

3.7

11.5

16.5

14.3

10.9

13.7

5.5

12.0

9.6

2.6

8.4

35.0

46.6

43.3

25.3

40.0

45.6 100

19.5 100

28.6 100

59.4 100

34.2 100

Mother Cannot read or write

7.6

17.1

13.7

3.0

11.7

Can read and write

14.9

15.9

15.9

12.9

15.3

Primary education

10.8

18.9

15.9

7.1

14.3

Secondary education

45.8

41.1

43.5

45.1

43.8

Higher education

20.9

7.0

11.1

32.0

14.9

Source: MLA survey.

Note: Public refers to publicly financed schools (state schools and those managed by religious institutions). Private schools are unsubsidized schools. N=3,365.

Data on source of family income (table 5.4) provide a less clear picture due to the categories used by the survey. However, but even here, it is clear that those with higher and more regular sources of income constitute the majority. Over 40 percent of students come from families who depend on salary income; another 51 percent come from parents who are able to sell agricultural products or are in business. Families with salary incomes predominate in the urban sample; those who sell agricultural products predominate in rural areas.

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 5.4. Distribution of Grade 8 Students by Family Income Source, Rural/Urban, and Type of School (%) Income source Salary Retirement pension or other pension Livestock sale

Urban

Rural

Public

Private

Total

50.5

33.4

40.7

53.9

43.0

3.5

4.8

3.8

5.4

4.1

2.1

2.8

2.5

1.7

2.4

Agricultural products sale

10.8

39.8

27.7

4.1

23.5

Business

22.7

13.6

17.5

24.3

18.7

Other

10.4

5.6

7.8

10.6

8.3

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Source: MLA survey.

Note: Public refers to publicly financed schools (state schools and those managed by religious institutions). Private schools are unsubsidized schools. N=3,365.

The majority of students had basic materials such as notebooks, pens, pencils, and erasers (table 5.5). Given their relatively favorable economic backgrounds, this is not unexpected. However, fewer than 20 percent had textbooks in mathematics, science, or technology, with significant differences between public and private schools. For example, over 26 percent of students in private schools had mathematics textbooks, while only 16 percent of those in public schools had them.

Teaching-Learning Conditions in Secondary Schools The self-administered teacher questionnaire from the MLA survey provides information on the backgrounds of mathematics and science teachers of grade 8 students and on school facilities (table 5.6).

Table 5.5. Grade 8 Students with Textbooks and School Supplies (%) Urban

Rural

Public

Private

Total

Textbooks Mathematics

20.2

15.9

16.5

26.7

18.3

Science

17.4

10.9

12.9

21.8

14.5

Technology

15.7

10.8

12.1

20.3

13.6

School supplies Notebooks

91.2

88.8

89.8

91.6

90.1

Mathematics equipment

40.4

33.8

35.3

47.7

37.5

Pens

90.7

87.3

88.6

91.9

89.2

Pencils

75.3

71.8

72.9

77.6

73.7

Erasers

60.7

54.2

56.0

66.3

57.8

Source: MLA survey.

Note: Public refers to publicly financed schools (state schools and those managed by religious institutions). Private schools are unsubsidized schools. N=3,365.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

23

Table 5.6. Education and Initial Training of Grade 8 Mathematics and Science Teachers (column %) Mathematics teachers

Science teachers

Urban N=97

Rural N=90

Public N=154

Private N=33

Urban N=97

Rural N=90

Public N=154

Private N=33

—

3.0

2.0

-

7.0

4.6

7.0

6.1

Upper secondary

21.4

70.0

51.0

12.0

21.0

46.0

38.3

6.0

Higher ed.— undergraduate

66.3

27.0

42.0

76.0

41.0

14.9

24.7

51.5

Higher ed.— postgraduate

12.3

-

5.0

12.0

31.0

34.5

30.0

36.4

Preservice training

58.2

36.0

44.2

63.6

54.0

35.6

43.0

57.6

No preservice training

41.8

64.0

55.8

36.4

46.0

64.4

57.0

42.4

Secondary— tronc commun

Source: MLA survey.

Note: One maths and one science teacher in each of the 187 sample schools was interviewed.

The educational qualifications of secondary teachers are low. Their qualifications differ very significantly between public and private schools, and between urban and rural schools, in both mathematics and science. In public schools, 51 percent of mathematics teachers and 38 percent of science teachers had only an upper secondary school qualification. The low education qualification of secondary teachers in public schools is confirmed by the teacher database of the Ministry of Education: in 2003, approximately 60 percent of these teachers had an upper secondary school leaving certificate or less.

By contrast, in private schools, 88 percent of both mathematics and science teachers had university degrees. Furthermore, 12 percent of the former and 36 percent of the latter had post-graduate degrees. Similar differences can be seen between rural and urban teachers.

Approximately two-thirds of the teachers in rural schools had no preservice training. A little over half the public school teachers had no preservice training. Again, a higher proportion of private school teachers did have preservice training: 64 percent in mathematics and 58 percent in science.

A significant proportion of teachers in public schools and in rural areas lacked basic instruments. Only a blackboard and chalk were universally available. Between 22 and 44 percent of public school teachers had rulers and compasses. Private school teachers were better equipped. Other furniture such as chairs and cupboards, or desks for teachers, was not available for three-quarters of teachers (table 5.7)

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 5.7. Availability of Classroom Supplies in Secondary Schools (%) Urban Blackboard

Rural

Public

Private

Total

100

97

98

100

98

Teacher chair

43

29

31

60

36

Teacher desk

26

27

23

39

26

Storage cabinet

32

26

23

55

29

Enough student tables and benches

29

24

23

45

26

Enough student desks

53

37

42

58

45

Source: MLA survey.

Note: For number of schools in each category, see table 5.6.

Internal Efficiency Repetition rates are very high in both lower and higher secondary education. Only 50 percent of the students who enter the first year of secondary reach the last year without repetition. With 40–60 percent failing the terminal examination, the overall internal efficiency ratio at the secondary level was estimated to be only 36 percent.5 The terminal secondary school examination (examen d’Etat) is a watershed in the lives of students because it is the gateway to higher education. Failing this exam causes most students to repeat several times, leading to overcrowding in the classes of the final year of higher secondary. The selection mechanism and lack of alternatives to university education create an enormous cohort of students who are treated as not having completed secondary education and, hence, not having formal qualifications for the labor market.

Learning Outcomes The only available recent information on the quality of secondary education comes from the MLA survey of 8th grade students (table 5.8). In 2005 approximately 3,365 students drawn from a stratified national sample of 187 secondary schools were tested in mathematics and science. The sample schools consisted of 97 urban and 90 rural schools. There were 154 publicly financed schools (state schools and those managed by religious institutions) and 33 private unsubsidized schools in the sample. The tests comprised questions with multiple choice responses only, which meant that a certain number of correct responses could have been obtained due to chance alone.

The average score in mathematics was 40 percent and in science, 46 percent. The distribution of scores is even more revealing of the low performance of students. In mathematics, approximately 22 percent of students got less than 25 percent of the test items correct, while only 4 percent received a score higher than 75 percent (table 5.9).

The MLA survey sets a threshold level of “mastery” if a score of 75 percent is obtained.

Subscores on the mathematics and science tests show that performance is uniformly poor, with especially low scores in geometry.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

25

Table 5.8. Average Scores of Grade 8 Students in Mathematics and Science (%) Average

Standard deviation

Mathematics

40.3

18.5

Arithmetic

36.0

18.5

Algebra

40.2

30.0

Geometry

28.8

17.4

Probability and statistics

56.0

32.0

46.2

17.3

Natural science

49.4

26.2

Physical science

39.2

19.0

Environment

50.0

22.4

Science

Source: MLA survey.

Note: N=3,365.

Table 5.9. Grade 8 Students with a Score Lower than 25% and Higher than 75% in Mathematics Students with a score < 25%

Students with a score > 75%

Mathematics

21.7

4.0

Arithmetic

28.1

2.8

Algebra

50.3

8.6

Geometry

54.0

0.3

Probability and statistics

12.8

22.5

Source: MLA survey.

The most prominent differences in average scores were among different provinces (table 5.10). In both mathematics and science, the difference between the highest and lowest performing provinces was sizable: 27 and 23 percentage points, respectively. In both tests, the province of Maniema had the lowest scores; otherwise, the ranking was not identical in both subjects. Seven provinces had an average score of less than 40 percent in mathematics.

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 5.10. Average Mathematics and Science Scores of Grade 8 Students by Province (%) Province

Average mathematics score

Average science score

Number of students

Kinshasa

33.8

44.3

526

Bas-Congo

38.2

49.9

461

Bandundu

48.7

49.5

756

Equateur

40.6

54.4

235

Kasai Oriental

30.2

38.8

242

Kasai Occidental

36.4

42.6

203

Katanga

32.9

42.9

230

Maniema

25.9

31.1

125

North Kivu

39.3

48.0

166

Province Orientale

46.1

46.7

201

South Kivu

53.4

42.2

220

Source: MLA survey.

Note: N=3,365.

Achievement differences between publicly financed and private unsubsidized schools also were prominent. The latter performed significantly worse, especially in mathematics (table 5.11). The achievement difference in mathematics in publicly financed schools was 29 percent of the standard deviation; that in science was 15 percent of the standard deviation (not shown in table). As stated earlier, the schools under the management of the churches are included in the public category. Private schools receive no state funding. On the positive side, gender differences in mathematics and science achievement were unimportant (not in table).

Table 5.11. Average Mathematics and Science Scores of Grade 8 Students by Type of School (%) Public

Private

41.2

35.9

Arithmetic

36.4

34.6

Algebra

41.9

32.6

Geometry

29.7

24.9

Probability and Statistics

57.0

51.4

46.7

44.1

Natural science

50.3

45.6

Physical science

39.3

39.0

Environment

50.5

47.7

Mathematics score

Science scores

Source: MLA survey.

Note: Public refers to publicly financed schools (state schools and those managed by religious institutions). Private schools are unsubsidized schools. N=3,365.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

27

The nature of the MLA survey limits analysis of the determinants of student achievement in two important ways. First, student achievement is measured at one point in time. Relating this achievement to certain measurable elements of the school during a particular school year is difficult in theory, as academic achievement is the outcome of cumulative learning outcomes over many years. In cross-sectional studies, only variables that are relatively stable (such as student background or global characteristics of the school), or those that are relevant for that particular year (such as the characteristics of the teacher) can be related to the achievement score. Second, such surveys have many measurement problems because questionnaires to collect information on students, teachers, and schools were self-administered by the respondents, not measured through observation or interview.

Nonetheless, the analysis of variation of achievement scores highlights important results (figures 5.1 and 5.2). The decomposition of variance in scores among students, schools, and provinces shows that the differences among schools are the most significant.6 In mathematics, interschool variation in scores is 50 percent; in science, it is 55 percent. In both cases, interstudent variation represents 35â&#x20AC;&#x201C;39 percent of the total variation. This demonstrates that differences in teaching/learning conditions and processes (or the selection of students into secondary education) among schools account for the major share of variation in scores.

The effect of various student and school factors on student achievement was analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling with two levels (student and school).

Given the measurement and other limitations of the survey variables, it is not surprising that less than 1 percent of variation at each level could be explained by these factors.

Figure 5.1. Decomposition of Mathematics Score Variance in Grade 8

Source: MLA survey.

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World Bank Working Paper

Figure 5.2. Decomposition of the Science Score Variance in Grade 8

Source: MLA survey.

However, certain variables do exercise a statistically significant effect on student achievement, and some of these variables are important for policy:

ɶ ɶ

ɶ

ɶ ɶ

The performance of girls is slightly worse than that of boys. Although statistically significant, the difference is less than 1 percentage point.

Older students do worse than younger students. In mathematics, this difference shows up only when the student is 3 years older than the norm (14– 15 years). In science, this factor is significant even for students who are 1 year older than the norm. Furthermore, the greater the age delay, the greater the negative effect.

French being spoken at home exercises a positive and significant effect on achievement, with a stronger effect on mathematics scores. Since French is the language of instruction, this effect is to be expected. However, the effect of this variable underscores the importance of policy regarding the language of instruction.

Students whose fathers have secondary educations get better scores. However, fathers with university education do not produce this result.

Alternative model specifications, not shown in appendix tables A1.1 and A1.2, reveal that the two variables “language spoken at home” and “fathers’/mothers’ education level” correlate. Higher education is associated with speaking French in the home. If the language variable is omitted, the coefficients associated with secondary and higher education status of parents are larger, and all are statistically significant.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

ɶ ɶ

Possession of a textbook has a positive effect on achievement in science, but not in mathematics.

The most significant school-level variable is the type of school. Public schools score significantly higher (by 6 percentage points) than private schools.

Appendix 1 gives the details of the estimated models.

Notes World Bank 2005a.

World Bank, 2008a, p.35.

3 World Bank, 2005a, p.33.

4 World Bank, 2008a, p.22.

5 World Bank 2005a.

6 The amount of variance in scores due to schools at the secondary level was higher (over 50 percent) than at the primary level (between 30–40 percent). At the primary level, 4th grade students were tested in mathematics and French.

1 2

29

CHAPTER 6

Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

T

he formal technical and vocational education system at the post-primary level in the public sector comprises the short cycle vocational courses (after grade 6) and the technical and vocational streams in higher secondary (after grade 8). As stated earlier, the short cycle enrolls only 1 percent of secondary students. Enrollment in the higher secondary vocational stream also constitutes just 1 percent of the total.

However, the technical stream of higher secondary education enrolls approximately 20 percent of secondary students.

The enrollment share of TVET is high in DRC compared to the SSA average of about 7 percent. However, this higher share may simply reflect a lack of access to general secondary education. The limited enrollment in the vocational training courses reflects the fact that these courses neither prepare for jobs nor allow students to continue their education.

The nonformal system provides additional training opportunities but again with very limited coverage. In fact, the total number of institutions providing training is not fully known. The most recent directory of TVET institutions dates from 1993. Over the last 15 years, a large number of private institutions have been created with or without official recognition. The distinction between “recognized” and “unrecognized” institutions is not very useful as the criteria for recognition are applied inconsistently.

Local authorities often grant recognition due to political pressure. The lack of a system of accreditation means that employers do not have reliable information about the quality of the programs in the public or private sector.

There is no systematic information about the labor market outcomes of students enrolled in these programs. The short cycle vocational programs clearly are not in demand and are underfunded. Nevertheless, they continue to absorb public funds to maintain staff and facilities. Curricula have not been updated for decades. Many occupational specializations are no longer relevant; there is little modern equipment or even materials for training; and the majority of instructors are old, with few opportunities to upgrade their competencies.

The outmoded craft and occupational specialization in TVET is illustrated by the technical stream in higher secondary, which offers more than 30 subject combinations.

This overfragmentation raises delivery costs and reduces the relevance of the programs. Emerging labor market needs require generic transferable skills, rather than narrow specialization.

30

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

31

The lack of employer participation in identifying needs or certifying the quality of graduates is a systemic deficiency. The TVET system does not provide any skills training for rural areas and the informal sector.

CHAPTER 7

Enrollment and Learning Outcomes in Nonformal Education

A

ccording to the 1-2-3 household survey, total enrollment in all nonformal education programs was estimated to be fewer than 200,000. This represents less than 0.5 percent of the youth population.

The UNICEF-supported remedial program for children aged 8â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15 years, run by the Ministry of Social and Family Affairs, offers a second chance to primary dropouts to complete their educations. The program is estimated to enroll 20,000 children. This is an infinitesimal proportion of the estimated 4 million children without at least 2 years of primary education, who comprise the potential target group the program. Moreover, about half the enrollment is concentrated in Kinshasa with 51 centers and approximately 10,000 students in 2006, of which half were girls. With 408 instructors, the student-instructor ratio was 25:1. The town of Mbuji-Mayi in Kasai Oriental had 132 centers with 1056 instructors and Tshikapa (Kasai Occidental) had 5 centers with 40 instructors.

There is no reliable information on the quality or learning outcomes in nonformal education. The remedial education program apparently has a high success rate for those children who do sit for the primary leaving examination. In 2005 approximately 1,300 students sat for the exam with a pass rate of 93 percent. The majority, of course, did not appear for the examinations.

The program is organized in three levels corresponding to the three cycles of primary education, with the content of each 2-year cycle being provided in one year.

Children learn in the center for half a day, in order to be able to continue their other activities.

The students in this program come from the most deprived socioeconomic backgrounds: orphans, street children, and those from very poor families. About 30-40 percent of them have never been to school. Despite this and the compressed nature of the program, the high pass rate in the primary leaving examination undoubtedly is due in large measure to self-selection. Only the most motivated and capable students sit for the exam. Nonetheless, these results show the potential of such programs to impart basic competencies to children. This fact, together with the flexibility in delivery and ability to reach children out of reach of formal schools, suggests that these programs should be considered as realistic alternatives to formal schools.

32

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

33

The traditional nonformal program is offered in the 327 centers of the MASF for children of around 15 years, who have either never gone to school or left it before completing 6 years of primary. The program lasts 3 years and is supposed to confer the same competencies as formal primary education. However, those completing the program cannot reenter the formal system and are directed towards the vocational training centers (CAPs) where the training lasts for 1â&#x20AC;&#x201C;3 years and leads to a formal vocational training certificate. There is little available data on the content or results of these programs.

CHAPTER 8

Cost Structure of Secondary Education Unit Costs in Secondary Schools Unit costs of secondary education in public schools (which includes estimated household contributions to teachersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; salaries) are low in absolute terms because of the low salary levels, even though these were raised in 2005. The average salary of secondary teachers is approximately three times per capita GDP, or about the same as for primary teachersâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the low absolute levels result from the low per capita GDP. However, these low absolute levels hide the fact that unit costs are high in relative terms because the student-teacher ratio is low. Differences in student-teacher ratio also are responsible for the large differences in unit costs among different levels of secondary education. Reasons for the low student-teacher ratio are discussed below.

Table 8.1 depicts the unit costs in 2005, the latest year for which data could be collected. The overall unit recurrent costs were $61 per year. For the 2-year tronc commun of general secondary education, the unit cost is just $28. Two streams of the long cycle (general secondary and teacher training) have slightly higher unit costs of $35 and $39, respectively. Both the technical stream of the long cycle and the vocational stream (short duration) have substantially higher unit costs: $114 and $130, respectively.

The unit cost in tronc commun represents just under twice the unit cost at primary level of about $15; that of the general stream of higher secondary represents close to 3.5 times the primary unit cost.1 However, the relative costliness of the technical and vocational streams stands out in stark reliefâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;providing one year of this type of education/training costs between 8 to 9 times more than providing one year of primary education. These ratios are not dissimilar to those in other SSA countries, where unit public costs at lower secondary and higher secondary are about three and six times, respectively, that at the primary level.2 However, they are significantly higher than in other regions such as East Asia or the OECD counties, where expenditure per secondary student is less than twice that on a primary student. These higher relative costs in DRC and SSA reflect both relatively low enrollment rates at the secondary level and a higher cost structure, arising from lower pupil-teacher ratios, higher salary differentials between primary and secondary teachers, and larger numbers of nonteaching support staff.

34

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

35

Table 8.1. Unit Costs in Public Secondary Schools, 2005 Long cycle

Vocational (short cycle)

Total

46,691

52,512

21,567

28

98

111

46

4,624

5,182

7,226

8,904

7,392

8

10

11

15

19

16

13,811

17,423

18,641

53,916

61,416

28,960

28

35

39

114

130

61

6,724

8,293

11,392

32,820

30,366

13,107

14

17

24

69

64

28

20,535

25,716

30,033

86,736

91,782

42,066

42

52

63

183

194

89

Tronc commun Personnel

FC $

Operating cost

FC $

Total recurrent

FC $

Investment (annualized) FC $ Total

FC $

General

Teacher training

Technical

9,959

12,799

13,459

20

25

3,851

Source: World Bank estimates.

Note: FC = Congolese franc. $ =U.S. dollar. The exchange rate was 1 US$=474 FC in 2005.

Overall, in DRC, teachers’ salaries comprised over two-thirds of the unit cost: of the total unit cost of $61, $46 was spent on salaries and $16 on nonpersonnel spending.

The share is significantly higher for the vocational and technical streams. The average student-teacher ratio in secondary education is only 14, and it is lower in these two streams—due to low enrollment in vocational programs, lower teaching loads, and the large number of specialized subjects in the technical stream. Each teacher is supposed to teach 22–24 hours in class (those in the vocational stream are expected to teach 16 hours). The pupil-teacher ratio is significantly lower than the SSA region-wide average of 25:1, which is already low compared to other regions.3 These teaching loads are also relatively light, again a common phenomenon across the region.

The unit cost of nonpersonnel expenditure did not vary much among the different streams: from $8 in the tronc commun to $15–19 in the technical/vocational streams. The main reason for the difference in unit costs among these streams is the per student personnel cost caused by the different student-teacher ratios. Low enrollment in the vocational short cycle courses is responsible for the highest unit costs.

Adding the annualized capital costs increases the range of unit costs due to the higher capital requirements in the technical and vocational streams. The unit costs were $42 in the tronc commun; $52 and $63 in the general and teacher training streams, respectively; and $183 and $194 in the technical and vocational streams, respectively.

The very low student-teacher ratios in secondary education are a corollary of small class sizes, which in turn are partly the result of small schools, at least for the general and teacher training streams. The majority of secondary schools have fewer than 200 students (2001–02 data, table 8.2).

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World Bank Working Paper

Table 8.2. Distribution and Average Enrollment Size of Secondary Schools by Type of Program, 2001–02 Program

Distribution (%)

General

21

145

Teacher training

30

143

Technical

18

130

9

301

General and technical

22

331

General and vocational

1

232

100

197

General and teacher training

Total

Average enrollment

Source: Annuaire Statistique 2001–02.

Table 8.3. Norms for Class Size in Secondary Education st

2

nd

3

rd

4

th

5

th

6

th

School year

1

Minimum size

20

20

18

18

15

15

Maximum size

55

55

55

55

50

50

Source: Estimated from annual statistics.

In fact, the expansion of secondary education has taken place almost entirely through increasing the number of schools, which has led to greater geographic coverage. As an example, the average size of Catholic schools (212 students) remained the same between 1977–78 and 2003–04. However, during the same period, the number of students increased by 150 percent, indicating that the increase was accommodated by increasing the number of schools.

The rapid increase in the number of schools has meant that class sizes often are well below the minimum norm prescribed by the regulations. The minimum and maximum norms for each class are given in table 8.3. These norms are generous; in practice, the average class size is only 24 students.

The compliance with minimum class size norms is even more limited in the classes beyond the tronc commun. More than 50 percent have fewer than the minimum norm of 15–18 students (table 8.4). This is true of all streams. In the technical and professional streams, class sizes below 20 are common, even in the early years.

There is considerable room for lowering unit costs solely by increasing the average class size while keeping other factors constant. Simulations indicate that increasing the class size from the present level of 20 to 40 would reduce the unit cost by 30 percent.

Alternatively, a substantial increase in nonpersonnel expenditure could be accommodated within the existing unit cost by raising the class size.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

37

Table 8.4. Compliance with Class Size Norms in Secondary Schools (%) Concentration General

Teacher training

Technical

Vocational

Total

% of classes in which no. of students is:

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

< minimum

12

22

45

57

57

53

> maximum

18

12

6

3

4

2

< minimum

19

36

50

58

54

47

> maximum

10

4

4

3

4

1

< minimum

27

44

57

68

64

57

> maximum

7

4

5

2

3

2

< minimum

59

75

69

75

57

> maximum

2

0

5

1

1

< minimum

18

31

52

62

59

53

> maximum

14

8

5

3

3

2

Source: Estimated from annual statistics.

Unit Costs in Nonformal Education There is little data on costs of the nonformal education programs. The Ministry of Education’s Education for All (EFA) plan (Plan d’action nationale de l’éducation pour tous, or PANEPT) uses a unit cost of approximately $25 for remedial education programs.

The basis of this estimate is not clear. Costs can be lower due to the flexibility of these programs, for example, due to the ability to hire instructors by the hour and lower administration costs. However, several expenditures simply are not accounted for, such as the technical support provided by NGOs or aid agencies and voluntary personnel. If the remedial programs are to be expanded for a much larger coverage, these hidden costs must be taken into account.

Notes 1 These ratios must be treated as approximate. The unit cost for primary education is based on 2004 data and may have gone up somewhat by 2006.

2 World Bank 2008a, p. 54.

3 World Bank 2008b.

CHAPTER 9

Demand for Education and Skills: Findings from the Investment Climate Assessment

T

he majority of DRCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s labor force is employed in the agricultural and informal sectors. It is estimated that the informal sector accounts for 80 percent of all economic activity and has grown at approximately 20 percent per annum in recent years. Post-primary education and skills training is important for the informal sector in order to raise productivity and incomes, and thus reduce poverty. In the formal sector, the skills content of new jobs will increase as new technology and work practices are adopted by firms seeking to compete in a globalizing economy.

An important source of data on the workforce and on post-school training practices is the Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) conducted by the World Bank in 2006.1 This survey collected information on 444 enterprises in Kinshasa, Matadi, Lubumbabashi, and Kisangani. Responses came from informal firms with under 5 employees (104), formal manufacturing firms (149), retail (93), construction, and hotel and other enterprises (98 combined). The survey also collected data from 410 workers in 75 enterprises (table 9.1).

In the formal sector, reflecting recent economic recovery, employment has grown since 2002 at an average rate of 5 percent per year. Almost 44 percent of enterprises in DRC added jobs in the previous 4 years, while only 16 percent reduced their workforce. Further analysis is required to see which sectors or types of firms contributed to increases in employment.

Table 9.1. Median Monthly Compensation in Democratic Republic of Congo and Selected African Countries (US$) Worker category

DRC

Zambia

Tanzania

South Africa

Malawi

Kenya

Uganda Madagascar

Managers

319.7

357.71

217.26

2,086.9

348.95

376.26

139.08

168.91

Professionals

157.6

360.02

186.22

1,670.9

257.12

138.35

78.34

109.88

Skilled

101.3

83.08

82.77

554.7

78.06

87.22

43.12

53.34

Unskilled

98.5

42.48

56.9

292.5

32.14

114.92

44.51

33.6

54

62.07

170.79

69.69

49.34

Non-production 84.4 Source: World Bank 2007.

38

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

39

Overall, 16 percent of firms report the lack of skilled labor as a major or severe constraint. Given the urgency of having basic infrastructure and correcting basic regulatory issues, this low proportion is not surprising. However, the variation across firm size is interesting. Almost twice the percentage of firms in the informal sector (20 percent) as large firms (10 percent) reported this constraint. The ICA report provides an insight into the difficulties faced by construction firms. Although workers are readily available, their training levels are low. Skilled workers and engineers with sound theoretical and vocational backgrounds are scarce. The few good engineers have been recruited by large firms.

Again not surprisingly, fewer than 10 percent of firms report any training, and only 1 percent of workers report receiving training. Training incidence in DRC, as measured by the percentage of firms offering training, is among the lowest in SubSaharan Africa. DRC’s 10 percent is compared to 25 percent in Rwanda and 35 percent in Tanzania. The small size of firms and the use of temporary workers limit firms’ incentives to invest in training. Furthermore, clearly, the lack of training providers and good quality training limits the opportunities for employers to offer training. Finally, the overall business environment does not reward entrepreneurs for expanding physical or human capital.

Wages of workers in DRC, especially for unskilled workers, are significantly higher than in other SSA countries due to the higher cost of living. Strikingly, there is little difference between wages of skilled and unskilled workers. Professionals earn approximately only 50 percent more than skilled workers. This figure contrasts with a differential of 200–300 percent in the wages for the latter two groups in other SSA countries.

There are significant differences in wages across size of firms and by type of ownership across all worker categories. Larger firms pay significantly more than all other sizes, and foreign owned firms offer better compensation than domestic firms (table 9.2). The ICA report estimates a private rate of return of 7 percent for each additional year of education, but does not present returns to different levels of education. In-service training has no impact on earnings, which is to be expected given the tiny proportion of workers who do receive training (appendix 2).

Table 9.2. Median Monthly Earning by Worker and Firm Category in Democratic Republic of Congo (US$) Worker category

Micro

Small

Managers

56.4

—

Professionals

—

Medium

Large

Domestically owned

Foreign owned

—

—

98.5

319.7

67.1

107.2

194.9

151.2

157.6

Skilled production

65.4

65.4

116.1

102.1

65.8

101.3

Unskilled production

63.3

73.9

67.3

102.1

56.4

98.5

Non-production

56.4

63.3

74.7

97.5

81.1

84.4

Source: World Bank 2007.

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World Bank Working Paper

The wages of skilled and unskilled workers in this sample are higher than the average monthly compensation of primary and secondary teachers. In 2005–06 the average monthly salary of a primary teacher was $25 and that of a secondary teacher $45. These figures include both state salaries and supplements paid by contributions levied on parents. Teachers in Kinshasa earn more because the state salaries are significantly higher due to the transport allowance and also possibly due to the higher level of parental contributions. Hence, the salaries of Kinshasa workers are more likely to approximate those of workers in the manufacturing sector.

These compensation differentials seem to imply that the link between education and earnings is not direct. Most unskilled workers in industry presumably have 6 years of education or less. In contrast, according to norms, primary teachers are expected to have at least 10 years of education, and apparently most do have this level of education.2 These compensation differentials in part may reflect differences in working conditions or in the cost of living between the two occupational groups. However, they highlight both the relatively low pay of teachers as well as the difficulties of recruiting and retaining staff for the education sector.

Equally importantly, these figures show that, at current compensation levels, should the manufacturing sector grow rapidly, it will be difficult to attract fresh graduates into the teaching force. This fact may be especially true in particular provinces with limited supply of secondary education graduates.

While the above analysis throws light on the current state of the market for skilled workers, education and training policy at the post-primary level should not be determined by these factors alone. Investment in education has a long gestation, and decisions taken now, or delayed further, will affect the skill level of new entrants in the workforce a decade from now. Over the medium term, if investment and growth pick up, skill shortages are likely to appear rather quickly in the DRC. The DRC already attracts the largest amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in SSA, approximately $1 billion in 2006. This amount is projected to grow enormously, especially as investment in mining comes to fruition.3 Unlike in many other SSA countries, DRC’s foreign investment is not concentrated in resource-extractive industries. The manufacturing and service sectors have benefited, and they have spurred the growth of relatively small enterprises. In the ICA survey, over 30 percent of firms were fully or partially owned by foreigners.

Foreign investors are particularly sensitive to the availability of skilled labor. In countries that participated in the World Bank Africa-Asia Trade and Investment (WBAATI) firm-level surveys and business case studies, “the shortage of skilled labor is reported as the most significant constraint by the majority of (foreign) firms.”4 These include Chinese and Indian firms that are investing heavily in consumer and investment goods industries. The shortage of local skilled labor leads these firms to import either labor or manufactured components from their home countries.

Other aspects of recent economic growth in the DRC also are noteworthy. A broad spectrum of sectors contributed to recent growth, including cement and construction, wood, beverages, and infrastructure (telecommunication, electricity, and transport).

The DRC’s informal sector seems dynamic, and, in contrast to other SSA countries, a large proportion (40 percent) of its workers has university education.5 This may partly reflect the lack of opportunities for employment for university graduates. Hence, due

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

41

to investment in new technology and processes, the demand for skills upgrades is likely to be spread across sectors in both the formal and informal parts of the economy.

A higher stock of human capital in the labor force promotes intersectoral mobility of the labor force and enables the economy to adjust to changing demand.

Entrepreneurs can respond to skill shortages through small amounts of additional training. Low educational attainment also can create disincentives for firms to invest in general training for fear of subsequently losing these trained workers to competitors.

Intervention through public policy can help to break the vicious cycle of low educational attainment engendering low investment in post-school or enterprise-based training.

Notes World Bank 2007.

World Bank 2005a.

3 World Bank 2007.

4 Broadman 2007, p.222.

5 World Bank, 2007.

1 2

CHAPTER 10

Challenges and Constraints Summary of Challenges Five challenges emerge from the preceding analysis: 1. Raising the human capital stock in DRC, particularly by improving the education attainment of new entrants into the labor force, is an important policy priority for the country to support its economic development. The demand for workers and technicians with skills for new technologies used in the modern sector is likely to grow as foreign investment and exports increase.

Equally importantly, raising the human capital of young workers who will join the informal sector can raise productivity and incomes and have a broad impact on reducing poverty.

2. To achieve this goal in the next 10â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15 years, moving rapidly to ensure universal primary completion by 2015, while essential, will not be sufficient.

The reason is that the number of out-of-school children and youth who have not completed primary education is enormous. This number will continue to grow for some time, even under the most optimistic scenarios for reducing the primary drop-out rate.

To rapidly upgrade the human capital stock of the young labor force, it is necessary to provide alternative education/training for a significant proportion of the out-of-school children. Paradoxically, the slower the progress in ensuring primary completion (resulting in more children with less than primary education), the more urgent is this strategy.

It will be also necessary to provide post-primary education and training opportunities up to the age of 15 for the majority of young people, implying universal education of 8â&#x20AC;&#x201C;9 years in line with international trends.

3. The existing formal secondary education and TVET system is characterized by low efficiency, poor quality, and irrelevance, and caters only to the formal sector of the economy. The short duration vocational cycle attracts few students due to its perceived irrelevance. Due to the long duration of the other cycle and high repetition and failure rates on examinations, the number of secondary completers is low. The graduates of the system do not have the competencies and skills required by a modern economy. Skills training for the informal sector, the largest employer in the DRC, is virtually nonexistent.

4. Unit costs are high due to low pupil-teacher ratios and small class sizes. These are partly the result of fragmentation of courses and early specialization. This high cost and inefficient system is under pressure to expand due to rapid demographic growth and the increase in the number of primary education 42

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

5.

43

completers, unless relevant alternative channels are created and/or the formal system is restructured.

Even with rapid economic growth, the state’s financial resources for secondary education will continue to be limited because of the low base from which it is starting and enormous demands for primary education.

Demographic Pressures To the above five challenges, a sixth must be added due to demographic pressures.

With a demographic growth of 2.5 percent per year, the total population of 12–24 year olds will grow from 16.9 million in 2006 to 20.65 million in 2015 and 25.1 million in 2022. Figure 10.1 gives the breakdown of this population by age groups corresponding broadly to the tronc commun (12–14 years), upper secondary (15–19 years), and higher education (20–24 years). The increase will be most rapid in the 12–14 year age group, at 2.74 percent per year, with the numbers growing from 4.3 million to 6.7 million in the same period. The number of 15–19 year olds will increase from 6.6 million in 2006 to almost 10 million by 2022.

Figure 10.1. Population Growth by Age Group, 2006–22 Projected

Source: World Bank estimates.

44

World Bank Working Paper

Figure 10.2. Growth in Enrollment, by Level, 2000–22 Projected: Uncontrolled Student Flow

Source: World Bank estimates.

Unviable Option: Continuing Status Quo of Exclusive Reliance on the Formal Education System Maintaining the existing structure of the education system, without any regulation of student flows among levels of education or introducing alternatives to formal education, is unviable for two reasons. First, if there is no regulation of student flows and the existing high transition rates between levels of education are maintained, the formal secondary and higher education system will have to expand enormously. The capacity requirements are simply enormous (for teachers, rooms, books). Second, the financial requirements for this system will become unsustainable.

Figure 10.2 shows the growth in enrollment at different levels of the system, assuming the status quo. The transition rate between primary and secondary would remain at the current level of 80 percent. The distribution of upper secondary students between the four streams (general, teacher training, technical, and vocational) also would remain the same. The numbers enrolled in secondary education would double between 2007 and 2011 and more than quadruple by 2015, increasing from close to 2 million in 2006 to 8.5 million in 2015. Enrollment in higher education would increase 6fold from approximately 220,000 in 2006 to approximately 1.35 million 2015.

Undoubtedly, the above rapid expansion improves the education profile of the youth population. Projections of the activity status show that if secondary and higher education were expanded in this manner, 90 percent of 12–14 year olds would be in primary or secondary school by 2015, and 70 percent in secondary school. Almost 55 percent of 15–19 year olds would be enrolled (mostly in secondary education, and a small proportion in higher education). More significantly, these proportions would expand rapidly. Thus, by 2022 almost 75 percent would be enrolled in post-primary education, and 15 percent enrolled in higher education. By 2022, the number of

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

45

students in higher education per 100,000 population would approach 2,000––close to the ratio for many middle-income countries.

The critical constraints will be the requirements for teachers and classrooms and for financial resources. Simulations (not shown here) demonstrate that the requirements for public funding would reach 50 percent of the state budget, clearly an unattainable target.

Moreover, a very rapid expansion of formal post-primary education is not warranted by DRC’s level of economic development. The projected enrollment status of youth approximates that of the higher income and/or rapidly growing economies, such as in East Asia and South Asia, which have invested in education for decades.

In practice, financial constraints will not allow the evolution of the system in this manner. Compromises will be made on quality, or the system will adjust by producing a very high level of dropouts and failures. The main point is that, if the status quo continues, the consequences will occur by default rather than through deliberate policy choice.

CHAPTER 11

Relevant Lessons from International Experience

T

he challenges and constraints faced by DRC in expanding opportunities for its youth are by no means unique. Undoubtedly they are accentuated by the recent history of conflict, widespread poverty, and the precariousness of public financing.

However, many other countries are faced with the common issues of how to expand access, raise quality, and increase efficiency of spending.

This section provides an overview of international experience in three areas which have the most impact on access, quality, and efficiency: (i) the structure of secondary education and TVET, (ii) curriculum organization, and (iii) teacher preparation and utilization.

Structure of Secondary Education and Technical and Vocational Education and Training In most developing countries, the majority of youth leave formal education before the completion of lower secondary. Education of 9–10 years for children between the ages of 6 and 15/16 is increasingly viewed as the basic minimum for equipping young people with the skills for the labor market and life. In SSA countries, only 30 percent of a given age cohort complete lower secondary education. Moreover, lower secondary is often not structured to provide students with basic theoretical knowledge and literacy.

Two major trends have emerged in response to these challenges. One, in response to the need to increase student “survival rates” through lower secondary, countries have lengthened compulsory education, often combining primary and lower secondary into a single “basic” education cycle. Two, and in response to the need to ensure that students acquire basic theoretical capabilities, countries have restructured lower secondary to provide a strong general curriculum instead of early vocational tracking.

Extended compulsory education. Many developing countries have extended the length of compulsory education. Between 2000 and 2005, 13 low- and middle-income countries lengthened their compulsory education cycle, by an average of 2 years.1 For these countries, the compulsory education cycle now averages 9.2 years.

Compulsory education reforms often include the combination of primary and lower secondary into a single “basic” education cycle. The rationale is that students are more likely to stay in school if they can continue in a single cycle, instead of having to manage the transition to another educational cycle that may have significant 46

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

47

“transition costs” at a young age—completion or exit exams and abrupt changes in curricula or language of instruction. The basic education cycle can still be provided in different schools, such as primary and middle/lower secondary schools, to minimize the cost of infrastructure provision. Box 11.1 describes educational reforms implemented in South Africa and in progress in Madagascar, which include provision of basic education.

Box 11.1. Education Reform in South Africa and Madagascar South Africa South Africa’s National Qualifications Framework (NQF) recognizes three strands of education: General Education and Training (grades 0–9), Further Education and Training (grades 10–12), and Higher Education and Training.

The duration of school education is 13 years or grades, which includes grade 0 (known as grade R or “reception year”) through to grade 12 or “matric”—the year of matriculation.

Education is compulsory for all South Africans from age 7 (grade 1) to age 15, or the completion of grade 9, under the South African Schools Act of 1996.

Further Education and Training takes includes career-oriented education and training offered in other Further Education and Training institutions—technical colleges, community colleges and private colleges. Diplomas and certificates are qualifications recognized at this level, which lead either to the job market or to higher education.

Madagascar In 2006, gross primary enrollment in Madagascar was 57 percent, and gross lower secondary enrollment was 27 percent. The government recognized the need to expand enrollment, to make educational curricula more relevant to the needs of Madagascar’s growing economy, and to align the education system with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.

To do so, the government designed a comprehensive overhaul of its education system, which is now underway. Consistent with its broad reform goals, the changes to Madagascar’s school system will: •

lengthen primary education from 5 to 7 years and gradually move to universalization

•

shift lower secondary from grades 6–8 to grades 8–10 and expand access to 10year basic education

•

provide a 2-year senior higher secondary education, expanded and restructured with a focus on technical and vocational preparation

•

reorganize TVET, eliminating vocational training at the lower secondary level, and reducing occupational specialization at the higher secondary level

•

transform and expand higher education to provide advanced scientific and technical skills.

Secondary education structure. The second challenge that developing countries face is how to structure lower and higher secondary education, particularly to ensure that students completing lower secondary are equipped with basic theoretical knowledge and literacy.

48

World Bank Working Paper

Table 11.1. Structure of Lower Secondary Education in Different Countries Structure

Example countries

1. “Basic”: Combined primary and lower secondary education

Asia: Indonesia, Rep. of Korea, Nepal, Thailand, SSA: Angola, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Ghana, South Africa OECD: Denmark, Finland, Rep. of Korea, Slovak Republic, Sweden Other: Ecuador, Grenada, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Ukraine, Yemen

2. Separate primary and lower secondary, with no tracking in lower secondary

Asia: India OECD: Canada, United Kingdom, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, United States Other: Colombia, Turkey

3. Separate primary and lower secondary, with tracking in lower secondary

OECD: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland Other: Bulgaria, Croatia, Peru

4. Combined lower and higher secondary

Latin America: Brazil

Source: Adapted from World Bank,2005b.

Table 11.1 provides the basic types of secondary education worldwide. Four basic structures emerge in lower secondary: (i) combined primary and lower secondary education, or “basic”; (ii) separate primary and lower secondary, with no tracking in lower secondary; (iii) separate primary and lower secondary, with tracking in lower secondary; and (iv) combined lower and higher secondary.2 The first observation here is that a significant number of countries—including those in Asia, anglophone SSA, and the OECD—have a single “basic” education structure that combines primary and lower secondary.

The second observation is that few countries continue to track students in lower secondary. Most countries—including Indonesia, India, South Africa, and others— have shifted to general education in lower secondary, although tracking students in lower secondary is still common to francophone SSA. In table 11.1, countries with general education in lower secondary are those that offer combined “basic” education (structure 1) or separate lower secondary, without tracking (structure 2).

The transition to a combined “basic” education and the elimination of tracking in lower secondary reflect countries’ desire to ensure that students acquire basic analytical capabilities prior to completing lower secondary. Many students will end their formal education at this level and this stage typically represents students’ last chance to gain basic theoretical knowledge and literacy.

There is less cross-country variation in higher secondary school structure than in lower secondary school structure. Most countries offer a general education track and a vocational education track. Many developing countries provide two tracks, while the distinction between the two tracks is fading in some advanced countries.3 TVET structure, duration, and timing. Decisions on the length and structure of secondary education also affect TVET. There are three basic types of TVET programs: vocational education, workplace training, and third-party training. There are also three educational levels at which TVET is offered: lower secondary, often as a terminal option with no possibility to continue formal education; upper secondary; and tertiary.

Table 11.2 compares both the types and timing of TVET programs.

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Table 11.2. Technical and Vocational Education and Training: Comparison of Program Types and Timing Type Vocational education • Double qualifying pathways • Dual system (education + work) Workplace • Formal apprenticeships • Traditional apprenticeships • Internships • Enterprise-based training Third party (outside work/formal school) Timing Lower secondary Upper secondary Tertiary

Example countries/programs

Impact

Cost

Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique Austria, Norway Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Indonesia, Rep. of Korea, Poland

Low Med High

— — High

Industrialized—France, UK, U.S. Developing—Ghana Industrialized—Sweden, Netherlands Worldwide U.S.—Job Corps, Career Academies; Latin America—Joven Programs Example countries Developing All Industrialized

Med — Med Low

— Low — —

High

High

Impact Low Med/High Med/High

Cost Med Med Med

Source: Adam 2007.

Three main lessons can be drawn from international experience. First, TVET programs offered in lower secondary have low impact. The main reason for low program impact is that TVET at this level often provides skills that the private sector already trains its employees on, while neglecting the educational foundations that they need to learn new skills and increase their productivity in the labor market over time.

Second, a growing number of countries are choosing to defer TVET until higher secondary because students are better positioned to make informed career choices.4 Third, TVET enrollment rates are higher when students have the option to continue their education or seek employment after program completion. In Austria and Norway, where this “double pathways” approach has been developed, enrollment in TVET has increased. An alternative to this approach—adopted in Tunisia, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, and Denmark—is to allow students to continue their studies upon completion of a given TVET cycle.5 Alternatives to formal education. Due to the large number of primary school dropouts as well as poverty and associated high opportunity costs of attending formal secondary schools, many countries have tried to introduce flexible mechanisms to enable these excluded children to access post-primary education. These include several Asian countries which now have very high secondary enrollment rates. As part of its strategy to extend compulsory education from 6 to 9 years, Thailand recognized alternative forms of education, including graduates from nonformal education centers for marginalized children, such as HIV/AIDs orphans and street children. India has set up open schools that enable students to acquire a secondary school certificate through a combination of distance and face-to-face education provided in a variety of settings with self-paced learning.

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Curriculum Many countries have introduced broad curricular changes in secondary education in order to improve quality and relevance and to keep up with the developments in knowledge, science, and technology. Experience shows that curriculum reform is difficult and requires protracted effort, but when well planned and implemented, it pays off in terms of improvement in student outcomes. Often, changes in the structure of education, including the choice of a basic education provide an opportunity for introducing curricular reform.

Four trends emerge from the experience of countries that have undertaken curricular reform.6 The first trend is to minimize the divide between general and vocational education. This is an especially important trend in lower secondary. Countries have made their secondary school education more relevant by complimenting updated general content with an emphasis on occupationally oriented skills, in the form of strong vocational preparation modules in general secondary or occupation-specific training in TVET institutions. The occupational skills respond to labor market demand, but are general enough not to have an “expiration date.”

The second trend is to update the general curriculum to make the curriculum more relevant. Updated curricula are likely to include courses that are more applicable to general labor market needs. There is more demand for traditional subjects such as science, mathematics and an international language, as well as new subjects such as technology, economics, citizenship education, environmental education, and health.

Many countries are introducing English in lower secondary education as the favored language of international communication.

The third trend is make curriculum relevant to the needs of all youth—a “mass” instead of an “elite” curriculum. School systems created under colonial systems sought to train a limited number of students for elite administrative positions. School systems today need to provide a curriculum that will allow secondary school students—a larger proportion of youth than ever before—to gainfully participate in the labor market. This requires a more applied curriculum than the traditional general education curriculum, which was highly theoretical.

The fourth trend is to reduce the number of possible subject combinations.

Streamlining the curriculum is intended to reduce curriculum overload, facilitate active learning, and manage the limited availability of subject teachers.

Teacher Preparation and Utilization There is a shortage of qualified secondary teachers in the developing world as a whole, and in SSA specifically. Secondary teachers are the most difficult segment for the teaching profession to attract, the most expensive to educate, and the most difficult to retain.7 As a result, the existing stock of secondary teachers in SSA is largely underqualified. The expansion of secondary education is making the shortage of qualified secondary teachers more acute. Analysis has calculated the estimated gap in new secondary teachers required in Chad, Benin, Malawi, and Tanzania in 2005. Even under the “best case” scenario, 3.4 times as many new teachers are needed as the teaching system can produce in a given year.8

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Need to address the teacher shortage. Given the shortage of qualified secondary teachers under even “best case” scenarios, it is important that policy makers determine how to address the teacher shortage. Policy makers can do so by carefully considering decisions about secondary education structure and/or curriculum, and by enhancing teacher recruitment, training, and retention.

Secondary education structure and curriculum. One of the most important areas of focus is decision-making regarding the structure and curriculum of secondary education. These decisions determine the number of teachers required. The implications of these choices for secondary teacher requirements should be carefully considered. The greater the number of tracks or subjects covered, for example, the greater the number of teachers required. Conversely, reforms that streamline the number of subjects or tracks reduce the need for more teachers.

In addition, policy makers need to consider choices regarding teacher qualifications, the length and duration of teacher training, teacher deployment, and salaries.

Significant savings can be obtained by appropriate teacher utilization. A 2004 study in Kenya projected that it would be possible to increase secondary enrollments by 50 percent without increasing the number of teachers by:9

ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ

increasing the teaching load from 18 to 25 hours a week using part-time teachers for subjects that are taught only a few periods a week increasing class sizes to about 45 expanding existing schools to at least three parallel streams sharing teachers across schools establishing a minimum class size for optional subjects.

Notes World Bank analysis based on Edstats. These countries include Afghanistan, Belarus, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Lebanon, Mauritius, Mongolia, Niger, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Syria, and Ukraine.

2 World Bank, 2005b, p. 6.

3 World Bank, 2005b, p. 5–6.

4 Adams 2007, p. 11.

5 Adams 2007, p. 11.

6 World Bank, 2005b.

7 World Bank, 2005b, p. 104.

8 Adapted from Mulkeen et al., 2004, pp. 23–24. Assumes that teacher training colleges produce 10 percent of the total teacher stock each year. The most conservative teacher demand scenario estimates the number of new teachers required if secondary enrollment increases at the rate of population growth.

9 World Bank, 2008a.

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CHAPTER 12

Expanding Opportunities for Democratic Republic of Congo Youth: Promising Avenues Principles of Reform The preceding analyses and relevant international experiences suggest that the DRC should develop a new a new policy framework for post-primary education and training in the DRC, which clearly lays out the goals and broad strategies for achieving them. Two criteria must be used to assess the desirability of the policy framework: (i) a rise in the human capital accumulation of young people, as demonstrated by the educational attainment of those who have terminated their education and the proportion of young people who are currently enrolled (hence, investments are continuing); and (ii) the sustainability of public and overall expenditures. In addition, the implementation challenges of reforms need to be taken into account in choosing a desired trajectory.

Certain principles are common, irrespective of the option chosen:

ɶ

ɶ ɶ

ɶ

Quality and relevance of secondary education and vocational training must improve. This will require an increase in nonpersonnel expenditures and a rise in teachers’ salaries to make the teaching profession competitive with others requiring similar qualifications.

Rationalization measures regarding class size and student-teacher ratio should be adopted to reduce the cost of provision of secondary schools.

In order to be sustainable, costs have to be shared between public resources (including foreign aid), households, and the private sector. Financing of education must allow for universal access at lower levels of the system and more equitable participation at higher levels.

Student flow between levels of education at the post-primary level will have to be managed in order to keep costs fiscally sustainable. Maintaining the current high transition rates of 85 percent between primary and lower secondary, and similar high levels beyond, is unfeasible.

Feasible Scenarios In order to evaluate the impact on youth outcomes and costs of different policy choices, we focus on three scenarios that incorporate directions for the reform agenda: 52

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53

Status Quo—Scenario 1

ɶ ɶ

No change in secondary/TVET system.

Expand enrollments but with lower transition rate between primary and secondary education and beyond.

This scenario is expected to have manageable costs and lower implementation risks, but also a low impact on youth outcomes.

Moderate Reform—Scenario 2

ɶ ɶ

Eliminate specialization in upper secondary education.

Introduce two types of alternative education programs for significant proportions of out-of-school children in the age group 8–15 years (basic education for younger children reentering the formal system and life skills training for entry into the job market for older children); manage student flows as in scenario 1.

This scenario is expected to have a better impact on the education profile of youth, while lowering unit costs by eliminating specialization. Implementation challenges are moderate, resulting mainly from the need to reorganize the curricula for upper secondary and the design new programs for alternative education.

Structural Reform—Scenario 3

ɶ ɶ

Provide 8 years education to all primary completers through the short cycle at the post-primary level; however, only 10 percent of children completing 8 years would continue beyond that level.

Introduce alternative education programs as in Scenario 2.

This scenario is expected to have the highest impact on the education profile of youth, but could affect the proportion of students in higher secondary and higher education. Implementation challenges would be higher, involving a redesign of the structure of school education cycles.

In order to assess the impact on youth outcomes and costs, we use a simulation model that explicitly incorporates education and training provision for, and outcomes of, the out-of-school youth, who constitute the majority of the youth of DRC. The structure of the model is summarized in box 12.1.

Box 12.1. Structure of Simulation Model The simulation model for the DRC education system developed for this paper differs from others in two ways: (i) it explicitly incorporates alternatives to formal education, and (ii) it projects not only enrollment in formal and alternative education but also the activity status of youth who are out of school.

The simulation model comprises three elements : A. Formal Education The formal education sector in the model encompasses preschool, primary, secondary, and higher education, which are linked by the transition of students among levels. Policy changes at one level can affect the size of the system at other levels.

(Box continues on next page)

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Box 12.1 (continued) 1.

Policy objectives regarding access, completion, transition rates, internal efficiency, and the year by which these are achieved determine enrollment at different levels. With the inclusion of alternative education, reentry of students from these programs in the formal system is explicitly built in.

2.

The policy objective for staff/student ratio (which is affected by decisions regarding the structure of the curriculum and quality) together with student enrollment determines class sizes and classroom and personnel (teaching and nonteaching) requirements.

3.

The number of personnel together with assumptions for the evolution of salary levels determines the total salary expenditures.

4.

Objectives regarding education quality as well as the results of student enrollment, number of classes, classrooms, and personnel numbers determine nonsalary operating expenses and necessary investments based on unit costs.

5.

The expenses thus generated are summarized by category. Their financing is divided among the three main funding sources: public (also broken down by central and local governments), households, and external aid.

B. Alternative Education The model incorporates two programs of alternative education: (i) basic, the objective of which is to ensure that children re-enter the formal system, and (ii) livelihood/skills training for entry into the labor market. The duration for the first program (Alternative A) is 3 years for those who have not completed 1st grade primary, 2 years for those who have not completed 3rd grade primary, and 1 year for those who have completed at least 3 years of primary. The duration of the second program is uniformly 1 year (Alternative B).

The out-of-school population and its educational attainment are given by the progress of cohorts through the formal system, hence are determined by education policy objectives regarding access, dropout, and transition to higher levels. Enrollment in alternative programs is generated by policy objectives for coverage by age group of the out-of-school population. Only a certain proportion of out-of-school children is included in the alternative programs. From a current level of 20 percent, by 2015 approximately 90 percent of students in the first program will reenter the formal education system. In the second program, there is no reentry to formal education.

Financial requirements are projected using unit recurrent costs. Capital costs are not included.

The financing is assumed to be entirely by the state.

C. Activity Status of Youth The model classifies youth of different age groups into 1 of 3 mutually exclusive categories: 1.

currently in labor force

2.

currently not in the labor force and not enrolled in school

3.

currently enrolled in school or alternative programs.

The currently enrolled group is determined by the education sector policy objectives and parameters discussed above. The model makes some assumptions for distributing the out-ofschool population under 16 years of age into those in the labor force (and hence no longer continuing their education) and those who are not (and hence may join the alternative education program). For those above age 15, it is assumed that all those who are out of school are in the labor force. (This assumption is made to exclude them from alternative programs, because the aim of this exercise is not to project labor force numbers.)

The educational attainment of the out-of school population (those both in and out of the labor force) is generated as a result.

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Table 12.1. Policy Goals of Scenarios Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Grade 6 to 7 (primary to lower secondary)

45

45

95

Grade 8 to 9 (lower to higher secondary)

25

25

85

Grade 12 to tertiary

20

20

20

Long cycle

95

100

10

Short cycle

5

0

90

General

33

100

110

Teacher Training

33

Technical

31

Vocational

2

Transition rates (%)

Shares (% of total) : Grades 7 and 8

Shares (% of total) : Grades 9 to12

Alternative education: Enrollment objective for 8–15 year age group

Range from 90% for those with no education to 20% for those with 6 years of primary

Share in basic program (%)

100 for 8–12 year olds 50 for 13–15 year olds

Share in life skills training (%)

50 for 13–15 year olds

Re-entry into formal education (%) Basic program

90

90

Life skills training

0

0

The specific quantitative targets for the policy goals underlying each scenario are outlined in table 12.1.

Certain common assumptions underlie all three scenarios (box 12.2). Some relate to the economic and social context and are out of the hands of the policy makers. Others are amenable to policy manipulation, but are treated as policy decisions that are invariant across scenarios. These include:

ɶ

Higher expenditures related to quality improvement, notably on nonpersonnel expenditures and teachers’ salaries.1 Per-student nonpersonnel expenditures in secondary education increase from $19 in 2006 to $50 by 2015.

The monthly salary of a teacher rises from under $50 in 2006 to about $97 a month in 2015, which is in line with the salary of an unskilled worker in the modern sector and places it on par with secondary teacher salary levels in other low-income countries (salary to GDP multiple of 4.6)

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Box 12.2. Common Assumption Underlying Three Scenarios

1.

Demographic growth • Growth rate of youth population: 2.5% per year (overall population growth rate is approximately 2% per year)

2.

Macroeconomic • IMF projections of growth rates in short run and 10% per year real growth in GDP until 2010 • Tax revenues as % of GDP: objective = 14% by 2015

3.

Primary education goals • Full enrollment of all 6-year-olds by 2010 • Universal completion of primary education by 2015 • Primary repetition reduced to 5% and dropouts to 1% by 2010

4.

Child labor • No children under 15 years of age working after 2015

5.

Cost rationalization measures • Primary: Reducing small schools, introducing multigrade schools, reducing number of nonteaching staff • Secondary: Increasing class size and student-teacher ratio, reducing ratio of nonteaching staff to teaching staff • Higher education: Reducing ratio of nonteaching staff to teaching staff

6.

Quality improvement: Cost factors • Improve education quality by increasing nonpersonnel spending in 2011–12 to approximately $21 per student in primary (current level approximately $9), $53 in secondary (current level $19), and $306 in higher education (current level $62).

• Increase salary levels by 2015 to 4.4 times per capita GDP at primary level ($85 per month) and to 4.6 times per capita GDP at secondary level ($90 per month). All prices are in 2005 US$. Existing salary differential of 1:3 between secondary and university teachers is expected to be maintained.

7.

Financing shares • Primary: All costs, including school construction and recurrent costs of salaries and student supplies, gradually are borne by public funds or external aid.

• Secondary: All school-based recurrent costs (staff, school supplies) and investment in teacher training and curriculum are financed by state or external aid. Individual student supplies (textbooks) and construction are financed by families.

ɶ

ɶ

Cost rationalization measures in formal secondary education, involving increase in school size, student-teacher ratios, and reduction of the high ratio of administrative to teaching staff noted earlier. However, the costrationalization measures are relatively modest. The student-teacher ratio, for instance rises to 22 in 2015, through an increase in school size and consolidation measures.

Recurrent unit costs in alternative education of $53 for the basic program (about the same as in primary) and $106 for the lifeskills program.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

ɶ

57

Primary education 100 percent financed by the state and significant cost sharing with households and private sector in secondary education. All school-based recurrent costs (staff, school supplies), teacher training, and curriculum are financed by the state in secondary education. Individual student supplies (textbooks) and construction are financed by families or the private sector. This appears to be an extreme assumption, but without this assumption, resource requirements for the government would be even larger.

Impact on Enrollment Status of Youth under 15 Years of Age How would the enrollment status of this age group evolve under these different scenarios? During the medium term, the enrollment status of persons under 15 years of age indicates the investments in human capital in the younger cohorts, who potentially could increase the stock of human capital when they enter the labor market. Broadly speaking, we are interested in ensuring that a large proportion of them are enrolled in some form of education––whether primary, secondary, or alternative––and that the proportion of those who drop out without primary will decrease.

We are interested in two specific age groups: 6–11 year olds (primary age cohort) and 12–14 year olds (correspond to the tronc commun). The results, obtained from the model, are summarized below.

Impact on Enrollment Status of 6–11 Year Olds

Under Scenarios 2 and 3, in 2010 the introduction of alternative education programs for those who have dropped out of primary school would reduce the percentage of 6–11 year olds out of school to approximately 12 percent, compared to 25 percent under Scenario 1 (no alternative programs). Equally important, these programs would raise enrollment in post-primary education. Between 2009 and 2011, 1.0–1.5 million additional children (aged 6–11 years) would be in the basic education program, and 90 percent of completers would reenter formal education.

In Scenario 1, over 45 percent of the total population of 5.5 million 12–14 year olds would be in either formal primary or secondary education by 2015. Nearly 25 percent would be in secondary education. Of those out of school, over 60 percent would have completed at least primary education, a result of the assumption that the system is moving toward universal completion of primary education by 2015.

In Scenario 2, over 60 percent of this age group would be in some education program, including alternative programs, by 2015. The proportion in formal secondary education remains roughly the same as in Scenario 1, approximately 25 percent. In fact, in 2011 under this scenario, almost 70 percent of 12–14 year olds would be in some form of education, due partly to the rapid expansion of alternative programs.

In Scenario 3, almost 85 percent of the age group would be in an education program by 2015. The proportion in formal secondary education is almost 50 percent.

This high proportion is due primarily to the universalization of the post-primary vocational track in grades 7 and 8.

Finally, we examine the educational attainment and enrollment status of 15–19 year olds in 2015. By age 15, a significant percentage of youth in DRC will have completed their education and will have entered the labor force. Others will be continuing their education. Different policy objectives will change these relative

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proportions and could affect educational attainment of the population later. For instance, Scenario 3 restricts access to formal secondary education after grade 8 and could produce unintended effects. To understand the full effect of educational policies, we examine the educational attainment of this cohort 5 years later by looking at the age cohort 20–24 in 2020. By this time, this cohort would have largely completed investing in education.

Figure 12.1 shows the projected proportions of 15–19 year olds in 2015 who would have completed their education (left school, whether in or out of the labor force) and those who would be still enrolled under the 3 scenarios. The following results are striking:

ɶ

ɶ

ɶ

ɶ

The proportion of youth without 6 years of primary education is significantly lower (30 percent) in Scenarios 2 and 3 compared to Scenario 1 (50 percent). This is the impact of introduction of alternative education programs in the former two scenarios.

Completion of at least primary education increases substantially under all three scenarios, compared to the situation in 2006––40 percent in Scenario 1 and 45 percent in the other two scenarios. These across-the-board increases are the result of the rapid progression to primary completion, common to all 3 scenarios, with the addition of out-of-school primary-level children in the last two scenarios.

Completion of 8 years of education shows a dramatic increase in Scenario 3. 45 percent of age group will have 8 years of education under this scenario, compared to negligible proportions under the other 2 scenarios. Clearly, this ratio will have the biggest impact in raising the human capital stock of new entrants into the labor force.

The proportion continuing their education is significantly higher in Scenarios 2 and 3, about 25 percent, compared to less than10 percent in Scenario 1.

Figure 12.1. Investment in Education and Training of Youth under Scenarios 1–3, 15–19 Year Olds, 2015 Currently enrolled

70

Completed education at least 12 years

60

Percent

50

Completed education at least 8 years, but less than 12 years

40 30

Completed education at least 6 years, but less than 8 years

20 10 0 Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Note: Total 8.07 millions = 100 percent.

Scenario 3

Completed education less than primary or no education

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Since a significant proportion of 15–19 year olds would still be enrolled in 2015 in Scenarios 2 and 3, it would be pertinent to examine what the final educational attainment of this cohort would look like. We do this by examining the attainment of 20–24 year olds in 2020 (which corresponds to the 15–19 year old cohort in 2015). The results shown in figure 12.2 are summarized below:

ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ

Completion of at least primary education increases even in Scenario 1 to 45 percent, and to 55 percent in Scenario 2, as over-age students in 2015 (above 15 years) in the cohort complete their education.

Completion of 8 years of education increases to 80 percent in Scenario 3. The proportions are still negligible in the other two scenarios. Hence, the long-term impact of Scenario 3 is even more pronounced than in the medium term.

Completion of 12 years of education is roughly similar in Scenarios 1 and 3 and larger in Scenario 2. This is a result of the differing assumptions regarding transition rates at lower levels.

The proportion continuing their education is small in all three scenarios, but scenario 2 has the largest share. Again, this is the result of assumptions regarding transition rates at lower levels.

Figure 12.2. Investment in Education and Training of Youth under Different Scenarios, 20–24 Year Olds, 2020

Percent

70 60

Currently enrolled

50

Completed education at least 12 years Completed education at least 8 years, but less than 12 years

40 30

Completed education at least 6 years, but less than 8 years

20

Completed education less than primary or no education

10 0 Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Note: Total 8.02 millions = 100 percent.

Scenario 3

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Summarizing the main conclusions:

ɶ ɶ ɶ ɶ

ɶ

The status quo scenario has modest impact on the educational profile of youth and improvements are largely due to the universal completion of primary education.

The moderate reform scenario, with the introduction of large-scale alternative education programs, significantly raises the proportion of primary completers and boosts post-primary enrollment.

The structural reform scenario, which universalizes 8 years of education, has the greatest impact on the education profile of future new entrants into the labor force. The impacts are larger over a longer time span.

However, the structural reform scenario envisaged in this paper channels 90 percent of primary completers into the existing short cycle. Clearly, tracking children into the existing vocational track is not desirable and is merely used here to illustrate the impact on educational attainment of the young. Further, this effectively makes grade 8 the terminal year for the majority of students and does not allow gradual extension of coverage at the post-basic level. As the results show, the coverage at the post-secondary level may also be lower than desired.

A compromise between the policy priorities embodied in Scenarios 2 and 3 may be desirable, with an accelerated, though not as rapid as envisaged in Scenario 3, move to universalizing 8 years of basic education combined with a gradual expansion beyond 8 years.

Coverage and Size of the Formal Education and Training System The commonly used indicators of coverage are shown in table 12.2, with the primary enrollment ratios being constant in all scenarios. In Scenario 1, the GER actually would fall from the current level to 19 percent in 2015––due to the greatly reduced transition rate. Total enrollment would remain roughly stable at approximately 2 million, although it would decline between now and 2015. Scenario 2 would result in a modest increase in the GER to 29 percent by 2015, while Scenario 3 would display a dramatic increase to 43 percent. Enrollment in 2015 would be 3 million and 4.5 million, respectively.

In Scenario 1, lowering the transition rate between primary and secondary (as well as improved efficiency of the system) would lower the secondary GER to approximately 19 percent in 2015. In Scenarios 2 and 3, there is a rapid increase in the secondary GER due to the expansion of alternative programs or ensuring universal enrollment in grades 7 and 8. However, Scenario 3 actually shows a reduction in higher education coverage due to the drastic reduction in the transition to academic general secondary education, and hence to higher education.

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Table 12.2. Coverage of the Education System, 2015 Projected Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

103

103

103

Primary net enrollment rate (%)

92

92

92

Secondary gross enrollment rate (%)

19

29

43

Number of higher education students per 100,000 inhabitants

124

124

102

12,992,598

12,992,598

12,992,598

2,019,389

2,991,677

4,491,279

1,594,767

2,270,391

4,092,143

424,622

721,286

399,136

92,844

92,205

75,988

Enrollment rates Primary gross enrollment rate (%)

Number of students Primary Secondary th

th

8 and 9 grade Higher secondary Higher Source: Model projections.

Physical and Financial Requirements of Expansion Teacher Requirements

The constraints of hiring new teachers could pose an obstacle to the rapid expansion of post-primary education. As compared to a secondary teacher requirement in 2015 of approximately 87,000 under Scenario 1, the other 2 scenarios demand 121,000 and 283,000, respectively (table 12.3). Moreover, the qualification level of these teachers varies substantially. In Scenarios 2 and 3, the requirement is mainly for those who have completed upper secondary education, as enrollment expansion is mostly for the 2 year post-primary (tronc commun). By contrast, Scenario 1 requires a substantial number of teachers with university education.

Classrooms

Due to the requirement for grades 7 and 8 in the vocational track, classroom requirements are significantly greater in Scenario 3, more than triple those of Scenario 2 and more than double those of Scenario 2. Even though not financed by public funds, under the model assumptions, clearly the capacity to build and finance these classrooms needs to be taken into account.

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Table 12.3. Teacher and Classroom Requirements, 2015 Projected Sc. 1

Sc. 2

Sc. 3

Teachers: Primary

334,919

334,431

334,433

86,935

120,597

283,469

3,858

3,831

3,157

44,661

76,065

20,083

Teacher training

3,606

2

2

Technical

4,499

2

2

1,269

0

159,513

54,035

76,069

179,601

Secondary (including vocational) Higher Classrooms: General and tronc commun

Vocational Total Source: Model projections.

Financial Requirements of Different Policy Options All scenarios involve a substantial increase in allocation of public resources and external aid (tables 12.4 and 12.5).

In Scenario 1, total spending on education (government, aid, and household) would peak at 7 percent per year in the period 2008â&#x20AC;&#x201C;10, and average 6 percent in the period up to 2015. This is probably the minimum effort that the country should make for education. External aid is substantial, totaling approximately $850 million in this period, but of course, a substantial part will go to primary education, which is presumed to be almost entirely publicly funded. The share of education in the government budget is high, but reasonable (25 percent maximum, and averaging approximately 22 percent up to 2015).

In the moderate reform scenario 2, the costs are similar: the cost of nonformal and alternative education programs and increased coverage is compensated by the modest rationalization measures introduced and the elimination of specialization in grades 9â&#x20AC;&#x201C;12.

Scenario 3 adds to costs in a perceptible way. Total spending would have reach about 10 percent of GDP and government spending on education would have to be close to 30 percent of the state budget. Such figures are not unusual when countries try to advance rapidly to universalize basic education. One reason for the higher costs in Scenario 3 is the assumption of providing grades 7 and 8 in the vocational track which has higher per pupil costs, which counterbalances the cost savings induced by the very controlled expansion of formal secondary education after 8 years.

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Table 12.4. Summary of Financial Requirements for the Education Sector, 2015 Cumulated education spending 2005â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15 Total (all sources, public and private)

Domestic government expenditure

Public Investment

Education spending for 2015

Foreign aid

Total

Public expenditure (including foreign aid)

$ (bil.)

% of GDP

% of total education expenditure

% of budget of state

Domestic government expenditure

FC (bil.)

$ (bil.)

FC (bil.)

$ (bil.)

% of spending in public sector

Sc.1

3,241

6.8

2,636

5.6

18.7

0.9

7.0

73

21

Sc.2

3,318

7.0

2,680

5.7

15.1

0.9

8.0

66

22

Sc.3

3,971

8.4

3,128

6.6

14.6

0.9

10.0

68

30

Source: Model projections.

Notes: Total expenditure includes expenditure by the government (central and local), external partners and households. Domestic government expenditure is expenditure by central and local governments.

Public Investment = investment by government and foreign aid. Public spending = government expenditure plus foreign aid. Domestic public spending does not include foreign aid.

Table 12.5. Subsectoral Distribution of Government Expenditure on Education, 2015 (%) Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Primary

71

67

49

Secondary

24

29

48

Higher

5

4

3

Source: Model projections.

Note: Government expenditure refers to spending by central and local governments.

Both Scenarios 2 and 3 are desirable regarding raising the human capital stock of the youth population, but providing universal 8 years has additional costs. These costs must be weighed against the benefits of having a more educated youth population.

Notes It should be stressed that increase in expenditures alone is insufficient to improve quality.

Reforms in governance and accountability are also required. However, given the degraded state of the system in DRC, substantial expenditures are required to create basic teaching-learning conditions 1

CHAPTER 13

Conclusions and Recommendations

A

n important policy imperative for the DRC is to rapidly increase the stock of human capital in the population (hence of the labor force) to support economic growth. The best way to do this is to rapidly increase the investment in education and training of new generations of workers. Another imperative is to manage the social consequences of having a large number of youth with limited skills who are out of school and not working. These two policy goals are circumscribed by the availability of financial resources. Other constraints include the capacity to meet the physical requirements of expansion and the institutional capacity to manage it.

The benefits and risks of the above scenarios and are summarized in table 13.1.

Recommendations 1. Create a holistic policy framework for youth aged 12â&#x20AC;&#x201C;19 years The focus should be on youth outcomes and developing multiple delivery mechanisms and flexibility for youth to invest in education and training. The new policy framework should cover formal and alternative schooling/training options, for both those who are able to continue through formal education and those who cannot, to enable the latter to upgrade their skills and re-enter the formal education system, if possible.

Whatever the specific option chosen made, the analysis and simulations suggest that the following three fundamental requirements for any future development of the post-primary system.

1.

2.

Focus on improving primary completion and quality. This is the most costeffective and rapid means to raise skills for youth in the 12â&#x20AC;&#x201C;19 year age group over the next 10 years. Moving toward universal entry into grade 1 and reducing childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s dropping out and repeating grades is a priority.

Provide alternative education for the millions of out-of-school children and youth is necessary. Unless this is done, a large number of youth will enter the labor force without basic literacy and numeracy skills. The slower the progress toward primary completion, the slower will be the accumulation of skills at the post-primary level.

64

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

65

Table 13.1 Summary of Benefits and Risks of Three Scenarios

Scenarios

Impact on youth (15-19 yr) educational profile

Impact on costs

Risks

Alternatives to be considered

1– Status quo

Low : (i) % with completed primary improves but relatively few complete 8 years or more (ii) 50 % do not complete primary

Moderate

Social cost of large number of out-of-school youth with low levels of education

Raise transition rate to lower secondary AND allocate more resources to secondary education.

2– Moderate reform

Significant: (i) % with completed primary improves and % currently enrolled increases (ii) % of those completing 12 years of education is higher 5 years later

Moderate (i) Elimination of specialization between tracks reduces costs and partly offsets costs of alternative programs

(i) Designing alternative education programs on large scale can be difficult—re-entry into formal programs may not be high (ii) Eliminating specialization in higher secondary requires curriculum reform

Experiment and scale up alternative programs based on evaluations; phase in curricular reform.

3– Structural reform

Highly significant: (i) 45 percent would have completed 8 years by 2015. By 2020, 80 percent of the cohort would have 8 years (ii) % completing 12 years or more would be lower than in scenario 2

Significant (i) This is partly due to higher coverage for grades 7 and 8 and partly due to higher cost of the existing short cycle vocational track

(i) Risks as for Scenario 2 (ii) As envisaged in the scenarios, majority of children cannot go continue education; can impact future expansion of other levels and ability to satisfy needs of highly skilled labor

Consider restructuring education cycles either through expansion of primary education to 8 years or creating basic cycle consisting of 6 years primary and 2 years lower secondary.

This will enable a more balanced growth of the system coupled with rapid move to 8 years of education.

This will also help to reduce costs.

Implementation can be phased in as part of a medium-term program of reform.

3.

Reorganize formal secondary education in order to improve access, quality, and relevance and contain costs. This may include eliminating specialization in the upper secondary cycle, extending the primary education cycle, creating a basic education cycle, eliminating the existing post-primary vocational track.

2. Reconsider the structure of school education and TVET

The model simulations show the cost savings that can result from eliminating specialization and reducing unit costs. However, providing a high cost vocational track in grades 7 and 8 virtually offsets this cost advantage.

One possibility is to universalize 8 years of education by extending primary education and restructuring secondary education and TVET. Extending primary education is significantly cheaper than expanding coverage in grades 7 and 8, either in the tronc commun or the vocational track. This extension is in line with the trends in Africa and the rest of the developing world. To lower costs, only a proportion of

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World Bank Working Paper

primary schools should be upgraded to include grades 7 and 8. The curriculum for these grades should require a minimum of specialized teachers. Alternative schooling mechanisms should be developed for the 12â&#x20AC;&#x201C;14 year age group to acquire the competencies of 8th grade and enter the labor market or transition to secondary education.

Formal secondary education in the new structure would consist of 4 years. This could be divided into 2 cycles of 2 years each. The lower secondary cycle, comprising grades 9 and 10, would have a curriculum with limited specialization that grouped subjects in 3 or so major domains. This structure would enable the use of polyvalent teachers and facilities, thereby reducing costs and creating the possibility of increasing access. Eventually, in line with worldwide trends, DRC could move toward 10 years of universal basic education. The upper secondary cycle, comprising grades 11 and 12, would be the main entry point for higher education and for providing skilled technicians for the labor market.

Phase out vocational education programs in early grades and focus vocational training programs on skills required by the labor market. Existing vocational education programs up to grade 8 should be phased out. They are not cost effective because, if done properly, they would need a high component of general education, which is best provided in the regular school program. Existing facilities can be used for upgrading primary schools or for alternative schools. After grade 8, vocational training courses are best provided as part of the alternative school network for the 15â&#x20AC;&#x201C;19 year group, not as a separate stream in junior secondary education. Vocational courses should be restructured to provide short competency-based training (3â&#x20AC;&#x201C;18 months) that focuses on generic skills and avoids too much specialization. Employers must be involved in providing input for the curricula, financing, and certifying outputs to ensure a closer match with labor market needs. Informal sector associations and local governments also should be involved to identify the needs of the informal sector and to supplement funding.

Restructure technical education. Technical education at the higher secondary level should aim to provide lower-level technicians for the economy. Employer participation is vital in all the areas indicated above for vocational training. Reducing the number of subjects and combinations, increasing the coverage of science and mathematics, and giving students more time in each subject to acquire practical competencies should be three foci of curriculum reform. The objective is to supply technicians for all economic sectors rather than for specialized occupations or specific sectors. However, a few specialized technical schools could be created to address the need for technicians in important sectors, such as mining and forestry, and to provide a link to specialized higher education institutes in these areas.

Alternative school/flexible learning mechanisms must complement the formal education and training system with pathways for re-entry. These mechanisms are an absolute necessity to cater to the skills needs of the millions of out-of-school youth with less than primary education. The risk of such programs is that instead of providing a second chance, they would be viewed as second rate, especially if they are not closely linked to the formal system. To avoid this and to ensure equivalence and transferability with the formal education programs, the alternative school programs should be redesigned together with the restructuring of the formal primary and secondary

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

67

education curricula, Although the providers are likely to be NGOs, the links with public and private formal schools should be institutionalized and the outputs of the alternative school system should be monitored and assessed annually by the Ministry of Education.

An outline of a possible new structure is shown in figure 13.1.

3. Cost sharing and demand-side interventions are essential

Financing should be shared among government, households, and employers. This principle should be accepted, even if the question of what should be financed by whom needs to be further investigated. Full public funding of post-primary education would limit access––unless the priority of primary education is shelved––and would be inequitable. This paper proposes that, for formal education, school-based recurrent costs and investment costs related to curriculum and training should be borne by the government, and individual recurrent costs and costs of construction should be borne by households. Alternatives can be considered in future modeling exercises.

Furthermore, after the appropriate financing choices are made, choices can be made about the methods of providing public financing (funding institutions; vouchers; or, in the case of vocational training, paying for outputs).

Targeted demand-side interventions should be considered. Due to high opportunity costs and/or social constraints, many marginalized groups will be unable to attend school, even if supply is made more accessible and flexible. These could include scholarships, conditional cash transfers, free textbooks for specific groups, and so forth.

Figure 13.1. Possible New Structure of Education and Training

Formal education

Alternative education

L A B O R F O R C E

2 years

2 years

Higher Secondary

Technical

Skills for livelihood/ informal sector

Lower Secondary

Primary Education 8 years

L A B O Basic education R F O R C E

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World Bank Working Paper

4. Prepare detailed strategies for quality improvement and improving access

Undertake studies and develop strategies to provide teachers, books, and classrooms in formal education. After the basic reform program, curriculum structures, and phasing have been decided, it is essential to craft the strategies for four areas: 1.

2.

3.

4.

curriculum and assessment reform secondary and alternative education teacher/instructors that address the teacher labor market and requirements for qualifications, training, salaries, and professional development textbook and learning materials provision and supply that addresses alternatives for production, unit costs and financing, and distribution design and construction of classrooms that meet curricular needs development of planning and technical norms and implementation modalities to reduce costs.

To provide input for the curriculum reform and alternative schools/vocational training programs, assess employer needs for skills. The ICA survey should be further analyzed, but the sample and information are limited. A survey of employers and graduates of secondary schools/vocational training/other nonformal training should be conducted to assess competencies provided by existing programs and desirable competencies. The survey would be followed up by developing a set of occupational standards, especially for designing curricula for vocational training programs.

5. Improve governance and management capacity

Delineate intergovernmental responsibilities and decentralize responsibilities to local governments and schools. The role of the central government could focus on developing policy, developing technical capacity, and managing the system. The reform program should incorporate decentralization to provinces and building capacity there. In particular, the development of alternative schools/vocational training requires the active involvement of provincial governments to meet the needs of the local economy. The possibility of linking up educational reform at the provincial level with the Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proposed governance project should be explored.

Start building institutional capacity in key technical and management areas. A critical limiting factor will be the capacity of the ministry to adopt a reform program.

An assessment of the capacity for implementation, recruiting new staff, and training them will be required. Capacity building should start before the program is launched.

Upgrade Ministry of Education statistical database and undertake fresh simulations. This is required for more detailed planning and should include better data on private school provision, especially for technical/vocational training.

Investments are required in equipment, staffing, and training to ensure timely provision of data. Once the database is upgraded and the policy framework is decided, it would be useful to undertake new simulations based on agreed policy goals and strategies.

Appendixes

69

70

World Bank Working Paper

Appendix 1. Multilevel Model of Mathematics Score with Students and Schools Characteristics Table A1.1. Multilevel Model of Mathematics Score a with Students and Schools Characteristics Fixed effects Reference category

Active category

Coefficient

Standard error

Significance

Female

í0.88

0.44

**

1

í0.03

0.52

n.s.

2

í0.94

0.66

n.s.

3

í1.73

0.69

***

No

í1.85

0.50

***

0.04

0.08

n.s.

Salary

0.57

0.43

n.s.

Gender Male Years over standard age None

French language spoken at home Yes Family wealth index Type of family income Other income Father’s education level No school

Primary

í0.07

0.90

n.s.

Secondary

1.20

0.69

*

Higher

0.96

0.76

n.s.

Primary

0.04

0.71

n.s.

Secondary

í0.21

0.59

n.s.

Mother’s education level No school

Higher Index of school supplies

0.45

0.83

n.s.

0.06

0.17

n.s.

Ownership of a math textbook Yes

í0.79

0.59

n.s.

School type Private

Public

5.97

3.17

**

Zone Urban

Rural

0.92

2.34

n.s.

35.03

2.89

***

No

Constant

Random effects Level 2: Among-schools variation

227.89

24.60

Level 1: Within-school variation

120.14

3.02

Percentage of between-schools variation explained

0.68%

Percentage of within-school variation explained

1.42%

í2 log L

26,181.6

Source: Suchaut 2007.

Notes: a. Model estimates with two levels: students and schools. * = significant with a 10% threshold. ** = significant with a 5% threshold. *** = significant with a 1% threshold.

Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo

71

Table A1.2. Multilevel Model of Science Score a with Students and Schools Characteristics Fixed effects Reference category

Active category

Coefficient

Standard error

Significance

Female

í0.99

0.43

**

1

í1.18

0.52

***

2

í0.97

0.65

***

3

í2.16

0.68

***

No

í1.36

0.49

***

-0.04

0.07

n.s.

Salary

0.58

0.43

n.s.

Primary

í0.80

0.89

n.s.

Secondary

1.11

0.68

*

Higher

1.05

0.75

n.s.

Primary

0.71

0.70

n.s.

Secondary

0.04

0.59

n.s.

Higher

0.34

0.16

n.s.

0.34

2.60

**

Yes

0.22

0.61

n.s.

School Type Private

Public

2.04

2.80

n.s.

Zone Urban

Rural

2.26

2.09

n.s.

42.85

2.60

***

Level 2: Between-schools variation

117.78

2.96

Level 1: Within-school variation

176.43

19.20

Gender Male Years over standard age None

French language spoken at home Yes Family wealth index Family income index Other income Father education level No school

Mother education level No school

Index of school supplies Ownership of a science textbook No

Constant Random effects

Percentage of between-schools variation explained Percentage of within-school variation explained í2 log L Source: Suchaut 2007.

Notes: a. Model estimates with two levels: students and schools. * = significant with a 10% threshold. ** = significant with a 5% threshold. *** = significant with a 1% threshold.

0.89% 1.42% 26,181.6

72

World Bank Working Paper

Appendix 2. Determinants of Worker Earnings Table A2.1. Determinants of Worker Earnings Dependent Variable

Log (monthly earnings)

Constant

3.02*** (0.19)

Years of schooling

0.07*** (0.008)

Log (worker experience)

0.12*** (0.05)

Log (tenure)

0.20*** (0.04)

Male

0.02 (0.07)

Worker training

0.06 (0.07)

Worker belongs to union

0.10 (0.07)

Firm age (log) Medium Large Foreign owned Exporter Adjusted rsq.

N Source: World Bank 2007.

Notes: Robust p values in brackets: significant at 15%. * = significant at 10%. ** = significant at 5%. *** = significant at 1%.

Ă­0.08*** (0.03) 0.07 (0.08) 0.29*** (0.08) 0.12* (0.06) 0.72*** (0.10) 0.37 390

References

Consultant Reports Rasera, J-B. 2007. “Post-Primary Education and Professional Training of the Youth (aged 12–24) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Suchaut, B. 2007. “Eléments sur les Apprentissages des Elèves dans l’Enseignement Secondaire en République Démocratique du Congo.” Institut de recherche sur l’éducation : sociologie et économie de l’éducation, Université de Boulogne.

Other Sources Adams, Arvil V. 2007. The Role of Youth Skills Development in the Transition to Work: A Global Review. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Borman, Geoffrey D., Gina M. Hewes, Laura T. Overman, and Shelly Brown. 2002.

“Comprehensive School Reform and Student Achievement: A Meta-Analysis.”

Report 59, Center for Research on the Education of Students Placed At Risk (CRESPAR), Baltimore, MD. Broadman, H.G. 2007. Africa’s Silk Road: China and India’s New Economic Frontier.

Washington, DC: World Bank.

Darling-Hammond, Linda. 2000. “Teacher Quality and Student Achievement: A Review of State Policy Evidence.” Education Policy Analysis Archives 8(1).

Gill, Indermit, Fred Fluitman, Amit Dar. 2000. Vocational Education and Training Reform: Matching Skills to Markets and Budgets. Washington, DC, and Geneva: World Bank and International Labour Organisation.

Glewwe, Paul, Meng Zhao, and Melissa Binder. 2006. Achieving Universal Basic and Secondary Education: What Will It Cost? Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Johanssen, Richard, and Arvil V. Adams. 2004. Skills Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Washington, DC: World Bank.

Leyendecker, R., W. Ottevanger, and J. Van den Akker. 2008. Curricula, Examinations and Assessment in Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. SEIA Thematic Study No. 5. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Lewin, Keith, and Francoise Caillods. 2001. Financing Secondary Education in Developing Countries: Strategies for Sustainable Growth. Paris: UNESCO. Mulkeen, Aidan, David W. Chapman, Joan G. DeJaeghere, and Elizabeth Leu. 2004.

Recruiting, Retaining and Retraining Secondary School Teachers and Principals in Sub Saharan Africa. SEIA Thematic Study No. 4. Washington, DC: AED/World Bank.

World Bank. 2000. The World Business Environment Survey (WBES 2000). Washington, DC: World Bank.

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World Bank Working Paper

_____. 2005a. Education in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Priorities and Options for Regeneration. World Bank Country Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2005b. Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies for Young People: A New Agenda for Secondary Education. Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2006. World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation.

Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2007. Investment Climate Survey: Democratic Republic of Congo. Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2008a. At the Crossroads: Choices for Secondary Education and Training in SubSaharan Africa. (The SEIA Synthesis Report) Africa Human Development Series.

(May). Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2008b. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Strategies for Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in SubSaharan Africa.â&#x20AC;? Working Paper No 136. Africa Human Development Series.

World Bank, Washington, DC.

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Changing the Trajectory: Education and Training for Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion.

The Democratic Republic of Congo faces the challenge of providing universal primary education and expanding opportunities for postsecondary education and training for its youth, ages 12 to 24. This study analyzes the current educational attainment and school enrollment status of youth, as well as the formal and informal post-secondary educational and training opportunities available to them. The study uses the results of a simulation model that incorporates enrollment in alternative education programs and considers alternative scenarios for developing the post-primary sector. Each scenario is evaluated for the impact on the human capital accumulation of young people and the sustainability of public expenditures. The report offers policy options for rapidly raising the educational attainment of young people who will be entering the labor force in the next two decades, including expanding opportunities for alternative education and training for out-of-school children, the extension of primary education, and the reorganization of secondary and technical/vocational training to reduce early specialization.

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