
3 minute read
The future of northern forests
How will North America’s forests change in the coming decade? Recent research from Woodwell Climate scientists Dr. Arden Burell, Sol Cooperdock Stefano Potter, and Dr. Brendan Rogers, uses machine learning methods and data from 25,000 forest sites across the U.S. and Canada to start answering that question. By creating near-term predictions of changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) in boreal and northern temperate forests, researchers were able to show that the future of these forests will vary by region. Most forests were predicted to gain biomass, as expected under a stable climate until a disturbance such as wildfire resets growth. However, boreal forests at the dry end of the biome’s range, particularly those dominated by black spruce, are at greater risk of tree mortality due to climate change and losing AGB as temperatures rise over the next few decades. This means fewer trees—and less carbon—on the landscape, and likely signals the early stages of a northward boreal biome shift.
What will northern forests look like in 2030?
Nearly 25% of forest sites were modeled to lose aboveground biomass by 2030, largely because of drought.
Climate change induced tree mortality will shift the boreal forest biome north.

How models work
Machine learning models are generally better at predicting gains in AGB than losses, but researchers used an assemblage of multiple models to improve the accuracy of their predictions for this study. Availability of sampling location data also influences model outcomes Roughly half of forest sites were located in the boreal region—increasing data collection in a broader range of northern forests could expand predictions of the extent of biomass losses.
Temperate forests show increases in AGB. Many of these forests are managed for timber, made up of fast-growing younger trees that add biomass quickly on a short time scale but ultimately store less carbon than mature and old-growth forests.
Boreal forest loss
A majority of the predicted AGB losses occur in boreal forests, where warmer temperatures and drought-induced tree mortality could push this system northwards
Refuge in the East
Wetter regions will be more resilient to temperature changes Eastern Canada has the potential to become a “climate refuge.”
Seeing Green
Temperate forests show increases in AGB. Many of these forests are managed for timber, made up of fast-growing younger trees that add biomass quickly on a short time scape but ultimately store less carbon than mature and old-growth forests.
header photo: black spruce boreal forest / photo by Brendan Rogers