Season 21-22 - The Ultimate Betting Guide

SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING PREVIEW

WINNER

/

OUTRIGHT

IIIIIIIIIII All FOUr EngLiSH LeagUeS IIIIIIIIIII SPFL PremiErSHip

EXPERT

VIEWS

IIIIIIIIIIIII SeriE A /

La LigA BUNdESLiga | IIIIIIIIIII LigUE 1

EVERY TEAM IN ENGLAND PREVIEWED

TOP

SCORER

_

Specials

RELEGATION PROMOTION

every team, every bet, every league covered

It only feels like yesterday since England’s bid to end their 55-year wait for a major trophy ended in the familiar agony of defeat in a penalty shootout. But the club scene is now back on the agenda with the 2021/22 campaign ready for lift-off.

So allow us to point you in the direction of our extensive ante-post coverage with comprehensive betting guides covering all divisions, major markets and teams from England, Scotland and abroad.

Our aim is always to provide a plethora of thought-provoking pieces, value prices, and pinpoint every possible eye-catching punt before a ball has been kicked. To do so we’ve built a stellar squad of betting behemoths and football boffins to bring you an industry-leading offering.

The #WLBSeasonPreview will feature our nominated title winners, promotion contenders, and highlight the sides that will be fearing the dreaded drop. The most intriguing specials selections have been sought, top goalscorers have been collated, whilst the obligatory rundowns and team guides have been stitched together by a collection of league experts.

It’s our biggest-ever pre-season production and we hope the enclosed content will provide the insight and inspiration required to procure another successful ante-post portfolio. Enjoy the season ahead, and best of luck with your bets…

Mark O’Haire

Mark O’Haire

Who can stop Manchester City? We cast With uncertainty surrounding Harry Kane’s our eye over the leading contenders who future the Premier League Top Scorer are striving to wrestle the title from Pep market makes for interesting reading. We Guardiola’s men. look at the runners and riders.

86 EURO LEAGUES 18 SACK RACE Inter Milan pulled off a surprise scudetto last season but with Antonio Conte gone, could Juventus wrestle back the Serie A title? Or will a new contender emerge?

Losing your job is an occupational hazard for a football manager, but who’ll be the first to pick up their P45 in the Premier League?

2 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

CHAMPIONSHIP

08 PREMIER LEAGUE 14 TOP SCORER

PREMIER LEAGUE

@markohaire

Winner

08

Relegation

12 Winner

30

Top Scorer

14 Relegation

32

Specials

16 Top Scorer

34

Sack Race

18 Specials

36

Stats & Trends

20 Stats & Trends

38

HOW THEY’ll FINISH 22 HOW THEY’ll FINISH 40

48 Winner

66

Relegation

50 Relegation

68

Top Scorer

52 Top Scorer

70 BUNDESLIGA

86 TOP SCORER

100 JAMES POTTER

106

Specials

54 Specials

72 LA LIGA

88 DINO’S BEST BETS

101 MATT KIRBY

110

Stats & Trends

56 Stats & Trends

74 SERIE A

90 GERRY’S BETS BETS 102 DAN McCULLOCH

114 ANTE-POST VALUE

118

92 LOWER LEAGUES

116 FINAL VERDICT

122

HOW THEY’ll FINISH 58 HOW THEY’ll FINISH 76 LIGUE 1

HOW THEY’ll FINISH 96 ADRIAN CLARKE

104 NEIL MACDONALD

04

FEATURES

Winner

EXPERTS VIEWS

LEAGUE TWO

SCOTTISH LEAGUES

LEAGUE ONE

EUROPEAN LEAGUES

ALL ODDS CORRECT AT THE TIME OF PRODUCTION

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 3

MY BEST BETS ADRIAN CLARKE Adrian Clarke @AdrianJClarke

PRESENTER and pundit Adrian Clarke (@AdrianJClarke) shares his five favourite ante-post plays from the Premier League down to League Two ahead of the 2021/22 campaign.

STING IN THE TAIL FOR HORNETS PREMIER LEAGUE: Watford to be relegated I’m shocked to see Norwich offered at a shorter price than Watford to be relegated in 2021/22. It is never nice to be the Prophet of Doom but I do think evens is a decent offering on the Hornets dropping back down to tier two.

With a modest CV, the littleknown Xisco Munoz did a surprisingly good job last term, proving the doubters wrong. But the Premier League will root out any of his tactical shortcomings.

home games, the Hornets have great confidence on home turf, and this will understandably provide fans with optimism for the season ahead. Ten of those victories were by a single goal though, and it will be infinitely more difficult to keep clean sheets against next season’s topnotch opponents.

Joao Pedro has great promise in attack and Ismaila Sarr is a class act, but Watford’s squad still looks well short of the firepower required to avoid a relegation battle.

Away from home Watford were suspect en-route to promotion, failing to win 15 of their 23 matches on the road, averaging less than a goal a game. At the highest level, I fear this weak spot will be sorely exposed.

Munoz has a solid enough group of players but there are not many past Premier League success stories amongst them. It’s a good Championship squad that does not look ready for what’s to come.

Vicarage Road is Watford’s fortress. Winning 19 of their 23

Sorry Hornets fans, but this could be a long old season.

ADRIAN’S TITLE WINNERS Premier League – Chelsea (5/ 1 Bet365) Championship – Bournemout h (10/1 William Hill) League 1 – Lincoln (18/1 Unibe t) League 2 - Salford (13/2 Bo ylesports)

4 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

CHAMPIONSHIP: BOURNEMOUTH TO FINISH TOP SIX The Championship feels a little bit weaker in 2021/22 and this, I believe, hands Scott Parker with a great opportunity to hit the ground running at Bournemouth.

Yes, the relegated Premier League teams will all enjoy the unfair rocket fuel boost that parachute payments provide but each has a new manager and question marks.

Can West Brom adapt quickly to Valerien Ismael’s unique brand of football? Has the losing habit wounded Sheffield United too much? And while Fulham are worthy favourites, the jury is out on Marco Silva, and many of their better performers have departed from loan spells.

Bournemouth had two rookie gaffers at the helm last term, first Jason Tindall and then Jonathan Woodgate. This hindered their prospects in my opinion, but

they still came mighty close to gaining promotion via the playoffs.

Parker is no Marcelo Bielsa but a definite upgrade. He organises his teams well, has a solid tactical approach and crucially, also knows what it takes to get out of the Championship.

The Cherries still have a terrific squad, and even if one or two talents are sold before the close of the window, they still have more quality than most.

Dominic Solanke, Arnaut Danjuma, Junior Stanislas, David Brooks, Jefferson Lerma, Ben Pearson, Phillip Billing, Sam Surridge, Jack Stacey and co are quality at that level.

I suspect there is also some wriggle room to flex their muscles

in the transfer market.

Bournemouth remain a very attractive proposition for talented players looking for a new club, permanently or onloan, and they should utilise that even if their budget is lower than it was.

would not have been on the radar for anybody else. This time around I sense Bournemouth will fare better under Parker.

The Cherries amassed 77 points last season with a pair of inexperienced managers that

To see Bournemouth oddsagainst for a Top Six Finish surprises me. If they fail to make at least the play-offs it will be a serious disappointment.

manager of course after Derek Adams legged it to Bradford just hours after steering Morecambe to success in the League Two play-off final at Wembley.

a real stretch for Morecambe to survive. The Chairboys had far more stability to lean on and gave it their all – but eventually they still went down.

Former Northern Ireland international Stephen Robinson has come in after doing pretty well with Motherwell, but under Adams their prospects of survival would surely have been stronger.

It would be lovely to see a newlook Morecambe team compete in League One and surprise but the 6/5 (Boylesports) on the newcomers being relegated seems a very fair price.

LEAGUE ONE: MORECAMBE TO BE RELEGATED Morecambe produced a remarkable, fairytale campaign to win promotion to League One via the play-offs last season. But that exciting, entirely unexpected achievement could easily be followed by an instant relegation back to the fourth-tier.

Budget-wise, the Shrimps are fighting a losing battle, and as we know in football, money makes a tremendous difference.

Playing in a division that contains a host of big clubs in 2021/22,

the Lancashire club are massive underdogs.

Morecambe are also effectively starting again with a brand-new team. Star man Carlos Mendes Gomes has signed for Luton and just eight of last season’s first team are still on the books. At the time of writing, 13 new faces have arrived (many of them good players) but that’s a lot of change to cope with.

The Shrimps also have a new

Just like Wycombe in last season’s Championship, it feels

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 5

LEAGUE TWO: TRANMERE TO FINISH TOP SEVEN A turbulent in-house atmosphere engulfed Tranmere last season but returning boss Micky Mellon has the strength of character and tactical nous to bring their dressing room together for a tilt at promotion.

The Scot steered Rovers from the National League to League One between 2017 and 2019 and will instantly warrant respect.

In truth, Tranmere should have cruised their way to automatic promotion last term. Their squad was among the strongest and most experienced in League Two, and with veteran striker James Vaughan banging in the goals, a top-three finish was there for the taking.

Bust-ups behind the scenes and a revolving door in and out of the manager’s office put paid to that ambition. Mike Jackson, Ian Dawes

(twice as a caretaker) and Keith Hill all led the side at various intervals, finishing seventh in the end before narrowly losing out to Morecambe in the play-off semi-finals.

To have suffered all that upheaval and still made the play-offs is a sign of their quality on the pitch.

Logic tells me that providing this season is calmer at Prenton Park they should improve.

Star forward Vaughan has left the club, along with one or two other regulars but Tranmere’s class of 2021/22 looks very strong.

Free-scoring midfielder Ryan Watson has arrived from Northampton, Callum McManaman has returned from a spell in Australia to join the club, assist-king Liam Feeney has signed permanently, and centre back Nat Knight-Percival

has s w a p p e d Morecambe for Tranmere in a real coup. Liverpool’s young striker Paul Glatzel will also get his chance to make a name for himself on-loan.

Mellon has won over this course and distance with a less talented

group of players than he has at his disposal this term. I do believe they are a good wager for the automatics but a price of 7/4 for Top Seven Finish is more tempting.

LEAGUE TWO: SALFORD TO FINISH IN TOP THREE Salford City ended last season on a charge, claiming 20 points from their last 10 matches, and that momentum under Gary Bowyer could serve them well as they prepare for another assault on promotion.

Last season was a missed opportunity, and the Class of ‘92 owners must shoulder some of the blame for that, ruthlessly dismissing Gary

Alexander and later Richie Wellens, completely out of the blue.

Consistent changes of direction hampered consistency levels, but Salford still only missed out on a top-three finish by eight points. That’s a gap that can be made up.

Releasing the excellent James Wilson and Richie Towell earlier this summer signalled the club’s intentions. In pursuit of their ambitions and a rise in standards they will be cutthroat!

T h e signings all have EFL pedigree.

T h e standouts

are Conor McAleny, who was League Two’s second-highest goalscorer when bagging 19 for Oldham last term, and midfielder Matty Lund who scored goals for fun at Rochdale.

More incomings are sure to follow and join a high calibre Ammies

squad that would not look out of place a division higher.

Salford are going to throw the kitchen sink at going up in 2022, and I expect it to be third time lucky – the 9/4 (BetVictor) to claim one of the automatic spots is too big to ignore.

BEST BETS WATFORD TO BE RELEGATED 1/1 BET365 BOURNEMOUTH TO FINISH IN THE TOP-SIX 6/4 BET365 MORECAMBE TO BE RELEGATED 6/5 BOYLESPORTS SALFORD TO FINISH IN THE TOP-THREE 9/4 BETVICTOR TRANMERE TO FINISH IN THE TOP-SEVE 7/4 BET365

6 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

WLBGOLD

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 7

CITY: THE CASE FOR THE DEFENCE

ENGLISH

PREMIE LEAGUE

OUTRIGHT WINNER PREMIER LEAGUE

8 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

MANCHESTE R term but the CITY comfortably regained 2 the Premier Le Wright (@Ja 021/22 renewal has the ague title last p ckWright_BS B) analyses th otential to be a classic.

Jack e odds.

When Everto n confirmed Rafa Benitez’ media were d s return to th elighted to b e Premier Le e able to roll employers as ague, the out his comm a “small club ent referring ” after the th “big club” stifl to his new en Liverpool man ed to a 0-0 d raw at Anfiel ager had seen d. his Things have n’t changed as far as Eng complex are land’s ‘bigges concerned – t’ clubs super but it’s not so more of a chas iority much a gap m. This notio these days, in n was extenu a breakaway ated when th stead power-grab e Big Six club – mercifully, quick death. s plotted the Super Le ague sugges tion died a But here we are on the ev e of all 20 clubs (thankfully) re another new Premier Le ag porting for d over the ante uty. However ue campaign with -post title od , casting a q ds illustrates but also how uick , not only the ridiculous tw aforementione eye o of that wan deserve to b d gulf, ta e dining at th way posse w ere in believi e top table. ng they

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 9

OUTRIGHT WINNER PREMIER LEAGUE As far as the bookies are concerned, only 20% of the league have any realistic chance of lifting the trophy come May and it will come down to one of Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea or Manchester United.

What of Arsenal or Tottenham? Well, both are available at 60/1, although of course Mikel Arteta’s men have finished an average of 33 points behind the champions over the past four renewals, whilst also concluding campaigns outside the top-six in the most recent two terms. Pretty significant divide, eh!?

Meanwhile, Spurs backers will be hoping new man in charge Nuno Espirito Santo can end the club’s 60-year wait for a top-flight title, with the White Hart Lane outfit also trophyless since 2008, painting a pretty bleak picture of the North London challenge in 2021/22..

Interestingly though, both Arsenal and Tottenham are shorter in the betting than FA Cup holders Leicester, who of course boast course and distance Premier League form following their incredible fairytale success of 2016. But in achieving successive fifthplace finishes, the Foxes have also posted higher-placed positions than both Arsenal and Spurs since 2019.

4/5 MANCHESTER CITY

6/1 LIVERPOOL

Manchester City are yet again ante-post jollies, interestingly offered at the same 4/5 (Sport Nation) quotes as last term.

The Citizens are definitely the team to beat yet again.

Despite eventually clinching third place, I’m sure Liverpool will be glad to see the back of a wretched 2020/21 and the layers make the Reds 6/1 (SBK) second favourites.

City

made shoring up a

Having won their first title in 30 years, Jurgen Klopp vowed not to defend their crown but attack – as it turned out the Merseysiders were left with little other option with a whole host of defensive injuries, most notably of course to Virgil van Dijk.

Incredibly, over the past two seasons, Leicester have spent more time inside the top-four than any other club, occupying a place in the Champions League qualifying berths for an astonishing 567 days. Despite their dominant title-winning year last time out, and finishing 19 points ahead of the Foxes, Manchester City were next best with only 483 days.

While the defence was often patchwork, in attack the previously prolific triple threat of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino failed to really spark.

Salah still fired 22 goals, although the Egyptian had little support from his teammates and the latter two managed just 20 strikes between them.

Rediscovering clinical title-winning form and keeping the dangerous Diogo Jota fit should provide enough firepower to once again challenge.

In fact, Pep Guardiola’s group spent just 131 days inside the top-four during 2020/21, which was less than three of their rivals, Liverpool (140), Manchester United (156) and of course, Leicester (242).

Whilst having van Dijk available again will feel like a new signing, t h e R e d s h a v e added a standout defensive addition in the shape of 6 ft 4 in Ibrahima Konaté from RB Leipzig for a fee believed to be in the region of £35m.

So, in hunting down this year’s Outright Winner, should we take note of bookmaker odds and draw a line through the bottom 16 challengers? Well, history tells us to do just that.

Other than Leicester’s miracle 5000/1 antepost triumph, the biggest price for the eventual champions since 2010 is 13/2 when Chelsea took top honours in 2017. Meanwhile, the preseason favourite has struck gold in five of the past 11 seasons and only twice finished outside the top-two.

I, like every layer in the land, cannot see anyone outside of the top four in the market engraving their name on the 2021/22 trophy and so I will share my thoughts on each of those contending clubs before revealing my favourite fancy at odds of 10/3.

Of course, at the time of writing we still have around four weeks of the summer transfer window to run, which could radically alter any of the challengers’ chances. But based on what we know right now, here are my thoughts.

creaking defence their number one priority and once Pep Guardiola found his preferred backline set-up, the Blue Moon never looked back.

Ruben Dias proved to be an outstanding piece of business, not only for his own performances, but in bringing out the best in John Stones. Add Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake and that is very impressive protection for keeper Ederson.

With this in mind, Pep has targeted improvements in attacking areas with rumours of bids for both Harry Kane and Jack Grealish. Landing either of those targets would make an already fearsome squad stronger, and surely contract the Citizens’ price further.

Highly-demanding Guardiola seems settled and happy, signing a contract extension with the club until 2023 and I cannot see past his team retaining their title. But with the odds so short, I cannot be putting City forward as a single selection and so will look to add who I think will finish next best to form a more attractively-priced forecast.

10 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

The 22-year-old has impressed in pre-season, displaying calmness in possession, and plenty of pace and strength – he will also be a major asset in the air in both penalty boxes.

One man who may prove to be a bigger miss than anticipated though is Gini Wijnaldum, who impressed for Netherlands at the Euros and could leave a gap Liverpool may struggle to plug in midfield.

6/1 CHELSEA

9/1 MANCHESTER UNITED

European champions Chelsea demonstrated a remarkable turnaround under Thomas Tuchel following his arrival in January. The German parachuted the Blues to a fourth-placed finish from midtable obscurity, before overcoming FA Cup final heartbreak to upset the odds and clinch Champions League glory over Manchester City.

After eventually getting the Jadon Sancho deal over the line, Manchester United now look poised to add Raphael Varane to their expensively-assembled squad, and in doing so, have certainly given their fans a reason to be excited about 2021/22.

It will be interesting to see how Chelsea start the campaign after taking onboard the German coach’s tactics so rapidly last term.

Now with a full pre-season under his supervision, potential progression cannot be discarded.

Expectation of course will be as always extremely high at Stamford Bridge; it comes with the territory under Roman Abramovich, who I’m sure has requested a league trophy to sit next to the European title secured last May. Goalscoring was the main issue last term with midfielder Jorginho concluding as the club’s top league marksman with just seven strikes. We therefore should anticipate more from both Kai Havertz and the much-maligned Timo Werner in their second Premier League seasons.

Tammy Abraham’s six goals from 12 starts doesn’t appear to have been enough to win Tuchel over and the Blues boy is destined for the exit door, but with Abramovich so far keeping his renowned chequebook in his pocket, I do wonder if there is a massive deal waiting to be closed.

Links with Erling Haaland persist despite current employers Dortmund insisting the Norwegian will not be going anywhere, as do the possibly more fanciful suggestions that Harry Kane could be making the short trip across the capital, as opposed to up the M6.

If either were to appear in Chelsea blue by the close of the window, then the current 6/1 odds would start to look more than a little on the large side.

After recent transfer dealings, or lack thereof, leading the Red Devils to be mocked, the 20-time champions have certainly enjoyed the most eyecatching window thus far. Not only have United splurged £100m on talent, but crucially, high-class recruits are being added in two areas clearly identified as needing improvement.

With that kind of backing, it must be assumed, possibly much to many people’s surprise, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is here to stay for the long haul. The Norwegian penned a new three-year-deal this summer, a show of faith from the Old Trafford hierarchy after guiding the Red Devils to second spot, as well as a Europa League final.

Even so, it probably sticks in the throat of an ardent Stretford Ender to admit it, taking silver behind cross-city rivals certainly marked steady improvement and the capture of a record-breaking 31 points from losing positions illustrated both strength of mind, and a resilient team ethic that has been imprinted on Solskjaer’s squad.

If United can start games on the frontfoot this time around, they could conceivably kick-on and close the gap further, or indeed secure their first title since 2013.

Convincing Edinson Cavani to commit to another year is a fantastic piece of business, but it is unlikely the 34-yearold will be able to start every league game. So it is therefore crucial those players who do come in for him step up to the plate, as failure to do so could well cost precious points in the race for top honours.

Jack Wright @JackWright_BSB

OUTRIGHT WINNER VERDICT As a result, my selection is for Chelsea to claim the runners-up spot behind Manchester City as I feel Thomas Tuchel has more to bring to the table. And should Abramovich get the slightest sniff of domestic glory, he will not hesitate to provide the necessary ammunition to bolster the Blues prospects of outright success.

My second selection was going to be for Aston Villa to finish top Without The Big Six but stories circulating that talisman Jack Grealish is edging closer to a move to Man City means I will keep my powder dry for the time being.

Should he stay, odds of 9/1 (William Hill) look big to me as Dean Smith has added some incredible talent to a side that impressed in large spells last season.

Expect the exceptional Emi Buendia to shine following his £33m move from Norwich and Ollie Watkins to thrive off the service. With yet more additions promised by the ultraambitious owners, sights will certainly be set on a European qualification place.

BEST BET MANCHESTER CITY/CHELSEA STRAIGHT FORECAST 10/3 BET365

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 11

RELEGATION PREMIER LEAGUE

Jack Wright @JackWright_BSB

THE race for survival in the Premier League appears as competitive as ever in 2021/22.

Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) bids to make sense of the Relegation market, picking out his favourite fancies from the bottom end of the top-flight.

Casting my eye over the Premier League relegation odds, it’s interesting to note you can back 12 of the 20 teams at single-figure prices, although I would be shocked if backers of Leeds (9/1) West Ham (9/1) or Aston Villa (7/1) get so much as a run for their money.

It may come as no surprise to see all three promoted clubs as the top of the market, however since 2010/11, a healthy 20 (61%) of the 33 clubs coming up from the Championship have survived at least their first season, and not once have all three immediately slipped back through the trapdoor.

Last season’s second-tier champions Norwich are as short as 5/6 to replicate the 2019/20 vintage and follow title success with immediate demotion. The Canaries are an appealing punt at 4/1 to finish rock-bottom, as they did on their most recent top-flight stay.

PREMIER LEAGUE

RELEGATION

12 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

The Norfolk outfit are in the record books for being the club relegated from the Premier League more than any other with five to their name, however both sporting director Stuart Webber and head coach Daniel Farke - fresh from signing a new four-year contract – are shrewd operators who will desperately want to avoid another demotion on their CVs. CHEERS TO JEERS Last time around Norwich started positively, including a shock 3-2 win over Manchester City at Carrow Road, drawing many plaudits for their positive results and fearless style of free-flowing attacking football. But cheers eventually turned to jeers and an atrocious finale saw City lose their last nine encounters and end a massive 14 points safety.

Webber came out with an honest appraisal, saying he had failed his manager in the transfer market by “sending him to war without a gun”. But by retaining the majority of that squad together, the Canaries once again impressed at the lower level, sweeping all aside to claim gold with room to spare last season.

Interestingly, we saw a different style from Norwich en-route to Championship glory as they collected three more points, scoring 18 fewer goals and conceding just 36 compared to the 57 they shipped in 2018/19. We should expect a similar philosophy on their return to the top table as the newcomers acknowledge they just can’t go toe-to-toe with England’s elite.

It can’t be denied the sale of the outstanding Emi Buendia will be a huge below – an evenly split return of 31 goal involvements (16 goals, 15 assists) says all you need to know about the playmaker’s exceptional contribution - it was enough to earn the Argentinian the Championship Player of the Season gong ahead of Brentford’s 31-goal hitman Ivan Toney.

Nevertheless, the view from Carrow Road is that, the sale of one player, however important, to enable the recruitment of three of four other key ingredients is the recipe for survival and was a chance worth taking.

The arrivals of Ben Gibson, in the England squad as recently as 2017, Greek international left-back Dimitris Giannoulis and tenacious Pierre Lees-Melou - who has 13 Champions League and Europa League appearances to his name – once again hint at the desire for more physicality and solidity.

At the other end of the pitch, the signing of highly-rated Milot Rashica caught many off guard, in an attempt to take some scoring burden off Teemu Pukki. But given the pace and ball-carrying style of the Kosovan would imply a desire to set up with more of a

counter-attacking style.

It would be some coup if rumours of a successful move for Greek wonderkid Christos Tzolis prove to be true and would even overshadow the fevered anticipation of seeing Chelsea’s Billy Gilmour get a regular opportunity to showcase his undoubted talents at the highest level.

More additions will be required to fully arm Norwich’s German boss although there is definitely a feeling of lessons learned, and Farke himself even raised the expectation from establishing the club as a top-26 side, saying: “Now it’s about going the next step, doing everything we can to make sure this club becomes an established Premier League side”.

Survival could well be delivered, but if it is, it will be as a result of a continuation of the tighter style of play. So the bet that interests me here is for Norwich to once again be the Lowest Scoring Team in the Premier League at 6/1 (SkyBet).

The Canaries fell 10 goals short of their nearest rivals Watford in the top-tier last time out, and shorn of Buendia (who was directly involved in 41% of last season’s goals) it is not beyond reason to think we could see a similar total this time around. Pinning hopes on players with zero experience in England is always a leap of faith and a risky strategy.

short-term keeping hold of a striker that brought his League One form - scoring 24 goals in 32 league appearances for Peterborough - seamlessly to the Championship, where he plundered 33 goals for the Bees, whilst handling the pressure of replacing Ollie Watkins, is the top priority.

Ivan Toney made just two Premier League appearances for Newcastle back in 2015/16 and will be desperate to show his worth having taken a couple of steps back to now take this massive leap forward.

A couple of key striking departures elsewhere, a Danny Ings at Southampton for example, and eyes could well be cast in the direction of the prolific 25-year-old, which of course could really impact Brentford’s survival strategy.

The Bees have made a couple of additions though, completing the signing of Nigeria international midfielder Frank Onyeka from sister club FC Midtjylland and Norway defender Kristoffer Ajer from Celtic for a club record fee believed to be around £13m.

UNKNOWN QUANTITY Unlike both Norwich and Watford, this is Brentford’s first time in the Premier League.

Last appearing in what was Division One back in 1947, it is safe to say we don’t have any recent form lines to draw on with the Bees at this level and they will be something of an unknown quantity.

Even so, the Londoners’ recruitment system draws envious looks from rival clubs, and the decision to fold their academy in favour of a B-team structure continues to go from strength-to-strength. It will be interesting to see how that stands up to the test of rubbing shoulders with football’s elite on a weekly basis in their fantastic new stadium.

However, there are several questions to answer, for me.

Will Brentford’s style of play prove profitable in the top-flight? Can Ivan Toney replicate his incredible goalscoring form at this level?

Will Thomas Frank be able to outsmart Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and co?

Both join with good stock but are unproven at England’s top-tier and I think there are enough doubts in key areas for Brentford to be found out in a similar way to how Norwich were a couple of seasons ago.

Despite finishing third last season, four points behind Watford and 10 off Norwich, both of those clubs are shorter odds than Frank’s side to finish bottom of the pile. And despite having the tools to really leave me with egg on my face come May, I am prepared to take the price of 5/1 that Brentford conclude the campaign at the foot of the table.

BEST BETS NORWICH CITY TO BE LOWEST SCORING TEAM 6/1 SKYBET BRENTFORD TO FINISH BOTTOM 18/1 BET365

Time will tell of course but in the immediate WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 13

TOP GOALSCORER PREMIER LEAGUE

9/2

BACK IN A MO’ MO SALAH (9/2 SKYBET) This season the Premier League Top Goalscorer market has seen a decent shift in structure. Usually there are four or five players bunched together at the top of the betting, but it’s Harry Kane (10/3 Bet365) and Mo Salah (9/2) who are by far and away the shortest prices. In fact, the next best are Timo Werner and Raheem Sterling, both at 20/1 (Spreadex).

It means there are plenty of decent options at chunkier odds to get stuck into with each-way terms, and historic stats suggest that there is money to be made outside the big guns.

A 100/1 shot has placed in the Premier League’s Top Goalscorer market in 12 of the past 19 seasons.

In 16 of the past 19 seasons a player at 50/1 or bigger has placed in the Top Goalscorer market.

A player from outside the Big Six has placed in the Top Goalscorer market in all bar two seasons since the competition’s inception in 1992.

Only Mo Salah, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy have finished in the top-seven Top Goalscorers in the Premier League in each of the past three seasons.

Here I’ve chosen a trio of options at differing prices that I believe represent decent value for the season ahead…

It’s very hard to dismiss the chances of Liverpool striker Mo Salah yet again.

Last season the flying frontman hardly set the world alight and was slightly underwhelming given the high standards he’s set since arriving on Merseyside.

Even so, the Egyptian king still banged in 22 goals, only losing out to Harry Kane by a single strike.

It’s always worth looking at respective players Expected Goals (xG) figures from previous seasons. Salah was pretty much in line with his - 20.25 xG in 2020/21 - showing he was scoring at a sustainable rate. If we take all four of his seasons with the Reds, he’s hit 20+ xG on all four occasions, a level of consistency that is very encouraging.

One aspect that you have to factor into this market is penalty kicks. With the introduction and continued use of VAR, we have seen a significant increase in volume of penalties in the Premier League - 124 spot kicks were given last term, a 34% increase compared to the average throughout the 10 years prior, highlighting the impact of video technology.

With the pace and fluidity Liverpool play with at the top of the pitch, it’s commonplace for the Reds to get opportunities from the spot, and Salah is the designated taker when on the pitch.

That’s not to forget about his finishing ability from open play, though. The 29-year-old’s pace is an obvious weapon in behind defences, but he can also cut in and create his own opportunities, as well as being quick to react to any pinball inside the 18-yard box. With the quality of delivery from full-backs inviting there’s no reason why he can’t hit 20+ again.

What’s more, Salah obviously hasn’t been involved in any summer international tournaments, meaning he should come in fresh, and that’s when he is near impossible to stop.

The 9/2 (SkyBet) quotes may look short but with his injury record better than Kane, more time to recover in the off-season than the England man, and with a coach who has a far better attacking record than Nuno Espirito Santo at Spurs, there’s a real reason to get behind Liverpool’s leading marksman.

14 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

28/1 e/w

Tom Love @TomLove_18

50/1 e/w

PATRICK BAMFORD (28/1 ew) Leeds had a fantastic return to the Premier League after a long hiatus.

Not only did the Beeston boys finish in the top half in their first season back in the big time, the Whites played some enthralling and aesthetically-appealing football under innovator Marcelo Bielsa.

Going forward, the Yorkshire giants were great value - scoring more goals than Arsenal and Chelsea - but their interesting approach did often leave them vulnerable to the better sides in the division, and the likes of Wolves, Brighton and Fulham all shipped fewer goals.

Thankfully, the Top Goalscorer market doesn’t rely on anything from a defensive standpoint and Leeds’ hitman last season was Patrick Bamford, who netted 17 goals to place in the betting.

You’d have been a brave man to back the 27-year-old this time last year given his tetchy record, but after seeing him make the step up with relative ease, I’m more than happy to get involved with 28/1 (Boylesports) quotes on the Englishman with each-way terms and hope he at least repeats the feat.

Intriguingly, Bamford didn’t actually fulfil his xG output in 2020/21, so he could and should have scored more. With all nerves likely to be now settled, the former Nottingham Forest youth is used to the league and the standard expected, whilst the players supplying him are all still in situ. So why can’t he bag 20 goals this year?

Leeds created more than the likes of Arsenal and Spurs, and almost the same quality of chances as Leicester, West Ham and Manchester United. With no European football, full focus will be on a tilt for the top-six, and no new arrivals up top mean Bamford will be the main man in attack for the Whites.

And should Mateusz Klich fall out of favour, which is possible, he could also be handed spot kick duty. Who knows?

IVAN TONEY (50/1 ew) Few players can claim to have won the Top Goalscorer gong in consecutive seasons and also in different leagues, but one who bucks that trend is Brentford ace Ivan Toney.

Toney, who first smashed the goals home for Peterborough in League One, made a big money move to Brentford last summer and it was his goals that pushed the Bees on to promotion to the promised land.

Thirty-three goals for the confident 25-year-old was the most of any Championship player since Guy Whittingham for Portsmouth back in 1993. Can he replicate that in the Premier League? Probably not, but the odds on offer are too tempting not have a play.

Toney contributed 39% of Brentford’s output last term - only Adam Armstrong (Blackburn) was more crucial for their respective clubs - showing how important he is to the Bees machine.

Head coach Thomas Frank rarely opts for two up front so it’s the former Newcastle man who always leads the line with support coming from wide forwards with two from Bryan Mbuemo, Sergi Canos, Tariq Fosu and Halil Dervisoglu likely looking at their current squad.

Toney’s link up play has improved immeasurably in the past few years that’s shown by his double-figure effort for assists last season, but ultimately he is a natural born goalscorer. It’s more about being in the right place at the right time and you know anything in the box, whether it be a high or low cross, he will get on the end of it.

If played through, the Brentford star has laser-like vision to put the ball where it’s hardest for the keeper to get to, and has become a physically more potent player and is now capable of shrugging defenders off to get shots away.

TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has been tasked with tackling the antepost Top Goalscorer market ahead of the 2021/22 Premier League season. Here are his favourite fancies.

Toney converted 11 penalties, a quite outrageous number considering there was no VAR in the Championship Again, we can’t ignore the penalty factor.

Including the play-offs but excluding penalty shoot-outs, Toney converted 11 penalties, a quite outrageous number considering there was no VAR in the Championship. Brentford do like to play the percentages to some extent, the more they’re in the box the more chance of a penalty.

We’re not expecting that many spotkicks this year but it’s a crucial factor, and considering the 50/1 odds available on Toney, it looks a chunky price for a player on pens, that will start at centreforward whenever fit in a team without any European commitments.

BEST BETS MO SALAH TOP SCORER 9/2 SKYBET

PATRICK BAMFORD TOP SCORER 28/1 ew BOYLES

IVAN TONEY TOP SCORER 50/1 ew BET365

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 15

PREMIER LEAGUE

SPECIALS Chelsea deserve maximum respect in the market given the sheer depth and quality in the ranks.

With most the squad still together, and minimal transfer activity, there’s nothing to suggest the Blues will let their standards drop in 2021/22. The West Londoners’ claims for a league title are justified at 11/2 and Chelsea deserve maximum respect in the market given the sheer depth and quality in the ranks.

REINFORCEMENTS

There can be no doubting the positive impact Thomas Tuchel had upon Chelsea following his appointment in January. But it was the defensive improvements the Blues made that really stood out, conceding just 11 league goals in 19 in the Stamford Bridge hot-seat, five of which arrived in an utterly bizarre 5-2 loss at home to West Brom.

Built from a solid base, Roman Abramovich can always dip into his pocket should Tuchel require attacking reinforcements.

That being said, German duo Kai Havertz and Timo Werner should be more settled into the dynamics of the Premier League now and improvement is anticipated in the pair’s output.

IMPENETRABLE It shows the largely impenetrable structure the German has implemented, not to mention the capital club’s exploits in Europe.

When looking at the performance data since Tuchel took charge, the Blues were pretty much neck-and-neck with the high standards Manchester City were setting.

A Champions League success that involved clean sheets against Manchester City, Porto, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid certainly took the goalscoring burden off Chelsea’s misfiring forwards.

Therefore, there should be a serious title battle on the cards with Manchester United improving, plus Liverpool eager to get back in the big time, but Chelsea will be aiming to take top honours.

Tom Love @TomLove_18

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has scoured the dozens of Premier League specials markets and shared his best bets ahead of the 2021/22 big kick-off.

City are probably deserving favourites but the market Without Man City is an intriguing one.

Liverpool are slightly favoured over Chelsea, which surprised me.

The Reds do have an ageing frontline that are probably slightly past their peak and their famous home record was blown out of the water last season.

I think Chelsea represent a much more reliable and solid team to get onside over Liverpool, and a United outfit where the jury is still firmly out on the manager, as well as lacking a world class number nine.

There is 7/4 (Betway) on Chelsea to win the league Without Manchester City and I think that represents a touch of value in a division that has pretty efficient markets.

BEST BETS CHELSEA TO WIN WITHOUT MANCHESTER CITY 15/8 BETWAY

BURNLEY TO FIRE BLANKS Burnley have so long been one of the overachievers in the Premier League and huge credit must go to Sean Dyche, who I rate as one of the best British managers about. However, there has been a few red flags around the Clarets this summer, notably Dyche’s reluctance to sign a new contract.

Should the rough-voiced gaffer move on at some point this season, I cannot see any other manager coming in and making the side anywhere near as effective as they are right now.

Only relegated Sheffield United and West Brom scored fewer goals than Burnley last

time out, and only the same duo, along with Crystal Palace, had a worse Expected Goals (xG) output than the Lancashire outfit.

WORRYING TREND Given how dreadful the former two were, you have to worry about the lack of business done at Turf Moor to try rectify a worrying trend.

I can’t see any of the three promoted clubs struggling for goals and with a major shakeup at Palace, the Eagles all of a sudden look a much greater threat.

If teams can nullify the physical presence of

Chris Wood, they’d go a long way to stopping this Burnley side.

The Clarets have always tried to rely on setpieces as a route to goal, attempting to get the ball wide and crosses into the box, which also means their corner count is usually higher than most – but eventually teams will figure out a way to keep Dyche’s troops as narrow as possible, or at least they should.

If Burnley can be kept largely in the middle of the pitch then their lack of craft and creativity could really bite - it’s just few sides seem to give them much respect in that regard. With the likes of Dwight McNeil and James Tarkowski destined for moves higher up the division, there could be murmurings of discontent towards the January window.

REGRESSION Overall, I do think the Dyche factor is starting to wear thin and I believe he knows that Burnley finished just outside the relegation places last term and their lack of business again says to me that more regression is due, even if things are freshened up in the managerial department.

At the back, the Clarets clearly have a solid set up when in a low block - the centre-halves are more than happy to accept crosses and don’t mind being under the cosh. But going forward there is a lack of quality and the 8/1 available with Betfred on Burnley to be the Lowest Scoring Team looks too big to me.

BEST BETS BURNLEY TO BE THE LOWEST SCORING TEAM 8/1 BETFRED

PREMIER LEAGUE

THE SACK Dan McCulloch @DMcCulloch1984

DAN MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) nailed Slaven Bilic at 14/1 in last season’s Sack Race so of course we invited him back for his views on the First Manager To Leave his Premier League post in 2021/22.

Unfortunately, this was a profitable market for me last season. I say unfortunately as I backed my own club, West Bromwich Albion, to be the first to relieve their manager of his duties and they duly obliged, sacking Slaven Bilic after the Croat managed just seven points from his side’s opening 13 league matches.

I enter with less confidence this term as it seems a far more open market. Last time out Roy Hodgson and Steve Bruce headed the betting and both seemed far too short to me.

This time round Watford’s Xisco Munoz is 7/1 favourite – unsurprising given the Hornets’ recent record for hiring and firing – but you could make a solid case for each of the top five in the market – Munoz, Patrick Vieira, Steve Bruce, Ralph Hassenhuttl and Mikel Arteta.

CONSIDERATIONS I did consider Vieira as Palace sacked Frank De Boer after just four matches in the 2017/18 campaign and the Eagles do have a really tricky start to the season, facing six of last season’s top eight in their first eight matches, while also playing rivals Brighton in that time period.

However, I think there is greater value in both Hassenhuttl and Arteta – both available at 12/1 – rather than Vieira, who is a best price of 15/2.

After much review, I have eventually decided to side with Hassenhuttl as my main bet in this market. The Austrian is 12/1 with Unibet and I think that is great value given the kind of form his Southampton side were in during the second half of last season.

In mid-December, Saints found themselves in third place in the table yet ended up finishing 15th after earning just 14 points from their final 21 matches.

Danny Ings has been a critical player for the Hampshire side but the marksman is indemand this summer and losing his goals will be tough to replace. Che Adams and James Ward-Prowse both managed nine goals in all competitions in 2020/21 so it would be incorrect to assume that Ings is their sole attacking threat, but he is certainly their greatest in terms of strike-rate, averaging better than a goal every two games across the last two seasons (34 goals in 67 games).

Even if Ings remains at St Mary’s, I expect it to be a tough season for Southampton and I don’t like the look of them at the back. I’ve always rated Ryan Bertrand quite highly

RACE so losing him to Leicester will be a blow and they look devoid of pace in that area.

Saints conceded 68 goals last season – only relegated West Brom allowed more – and neither Alex McCarthy or Fraser Forster convinced between the sticks.

LITTLE CONFIDENCE Southampton’s opening fixtures give me little confidence that they will get off to a good start, with trips to Goodison, The Etihad and Stamford Bridge in their first seven matches, as well as a home game against Manchester United.

Hassenhuttl has been at St Mary’s for almost three years and has a contract until 2024, which is the only thing that concerns me about this bet. Ultimately though, staying in the Premier League is worth far more to Southampton, and they won’t be afraid of wielding the axe should their season start slowly.

At a bigger price, I will take a punt on Nuno Espirito Santo at 25/1 with Boylesports. The Portuguese joined Tottenham from Wolves in the summer in what seemed like a surprise move. Last season the Old Gold managed just 36 goals in 38 league matches and I wouldn’t expect Spurs to be any more expansive than

they were under Jose Mourinho.

Bryan Gil looks like a promising signing from Sevilla, but this is a side very much dependent on the relationship between Harry Kane and Son Heung-min in order to score goals, and speculation remains rife that Kane is looking to jump ship this summer.

Spurs will get a huge amount of money for Kane but replacing him will not be easy.

They are short of talent – if not personnel – in numerous areas and I don’t see Nuno winning over the fanbase easily. That said, he probably won’t be the first manager sacked but at 25/1 it is surely worth a dart.

BEST BETS RALPH HASSENHUTTL TO BE FIRST MANAGER SACKED 12/1 UNIBET NUNO ESPIRITO SANTO TO BE FIRST MANAGER SACKED 25/1 BOYLESPORTS

PREMIER LEAGUE

STATS & TRENDS

WE asked Mark O’Haire (@ MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new Premier League campaign.

13/5 Average price of the Premier League champion (excluding Leicester’s triumph at 5000/1).

League Winners

rd

3

Average position finished year previously – 3rd.

The Premier League title has been retained once since 2008/09.

16 (76%) of the last 21 Premier League title winners were priced up at 4/1 or shorter.

Since the Premier League began in 1992, 26 (93%) of the 28 title winners finished in the top-three the previous season – eight (29%) were defending champions, 12 (43%) had been runners-up and six had been third (21%).

75%

18 (75%) of the last 24 defending Premier League champions have finished in the toptwo.

FAVOURITES

TOP 3

Average finishing position – 2nd.

Average price – 8/1 (excluding Leicester’s triumph at 5000/1).

Average price of the ante-post favourite – 7/5.

The ante-post fav has won the Premier League title in 10 (48%) of the 21 seasons this century.

ONCE

48% The ante-post fav has finished in the top two in 16 (76%) of the 21 seasons this century.

Only once (Chelsea 2015/16) has the ante-post favourite finished outside of the top-four.

Only 4 (57%) of 7 odds-on ante-post Premier League favourites have won the title since 1996/97

4 of the past 8 Premier Leans have seen a side at 20/1 or bigger finish in the top-three.

8/1

SIX TEAMS Since 1995/96 six teams (Chelsea 2013 and 2017, Liverpool 2014, Leicester 2016, and Man Utd 2018 and 2020) have finished in the top three having been lower than fifth the previous season.

55%

At least one of the Big Six has finished outside of the top-six in 6 (55%) of the last 11 Premier League seasons, including the most recent two.

PROMOTED CLUBS

TOP GOALSCORER

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

Average finishing position of a promoted club – 15th.

A 100/1 shot has placed in the Premier League’s Top Goalscorer market in 12 of the past 19 seasons dating back to 2002/03.

The top-scoring side in the Premier League has been crowned champions in 13/21 (62%) seasons this century (average finish 2nd).

27/63 (43%) of promoted clubs suffered immediate relegation – 38 (60%) stayed up with 12 (19%) finishing in top-half.

At least one promoted club suffered immediate relegation in 18/21 (86%) seasons.

All three promoted clubs have survived in just 3 (14%) of the 21 seasons this century, whilst a minimum of two clubs were relegated on 9 (43%) occasions.

1997/98 remains the only Premier League season where all three promoted clubs were immediately relegated.

100/1

In 16 of the past 19 Premier League seasons a player at 50/1 or bigger has placed in the Top Goalscorer market.

A player from outside the Premier League’s Big Six has placed in the Top Goalscorer market in all bar two seasons since the competition’s inception in 1992.

Only Mo Salah, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy have finished in the top-seven Top Goalscorers in the Premier League in each of the past three seasons.

The lowest (or joint-lowest) scoring side in the Premier League has been relegated in 17/21 (81%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 11 (52%) occasions (average finish 19th).

The best defence (or joint-best) has been crowned champions in 12/21 (57%) seasons this century (average finish 2nd) The side with the worst defence in the Premier League has been relegated in 21/21 (100%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 11 (52%) occasions (average finish 19th).

HOW THEY’LL FINISH PREMIER LEAGUE James Cantrill @JimmyThePunt

PREMIER LEAGUE expert James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) delivers his team-by-team verdicts ahead of the 2021/22 campaign, with a 1-20 rundown covering each club in-depth ahead of the new season.

1. LIVERPOOL (5/1 Bet365)

2. MAN CITY (4/5 SPORTNATION)

The poor campaign perhaps was a reflection on the extraordinary standards Jurgen Klopp set his Reds side over the previous two campaigns, ultimately unattainable standards that pushed his side to breaking point.

As the contrasting styles Tuchel implemented at these three clubs illustrate, he is tactically elite. At Mainz he was known to have switched formation as many as four times in a game and at PSG he used 21 different midfield trios in their 27-game season, which might be why people have drawn parallels from his style to that of Pep Guardiola.

That being said, the Merseysiders were still in contention until Christmas before things started to unravel. You could pin the blame on bad luck with a few key men missing chunks of the season with injuries – centre-back was a particular problem with Klopp forced to field 20 different partnerships.

This versatility and game-by-game nature of Tuchel’s preparation often means his sides are more suited for knockout competitions and specifically big fixtures. This is perhaps best epitomised by the fact he has twice as many cup trophies compared to league titles in his coaching career.

The disruption to his team meant Liverpool lost momentum and led to the Reds losing six games on the bounce at Anfield for the first time in over 65 years. Given the way in which they capitulated, it will be very tough to reignite that winning feeling.

Man City face the likes of Spurs, Arsenal, Leicester and Chelsea before their trip to Anfield. Therefore, it looks like Liverpool have a golden chance to gain an early advantage and establish a real stronghold on proceedings. And we all know, Klopp’s sides can be incredibly dangerous once they’ve gotten a head of steam…

Switching managers mid-season seemed a bold move at the time but ultimately paid dividends for Roman Abramovich.

Chelsea’s remarkable turnaround in fortunes under Thomas Tuchel saw the Blues lift the Champions League crown for the second time in their history.

Tuchel and Chelsea do appear to be a good fit as neither are bided by longevity as their track records indicate. This is the Bavarian’s fourth managerial job - he spent his first eight years in the German top-flight at the helm of Mainz before stints with Dortmund and PSG.

Last season’s title defence was a write off for Liverpool, who finished 17 points behind champions Manchester City and 30 points shy of their championship-winning tally.

However, Liverpool play Man City at the beginning of October and the only challenging sides they face prior to a potentially decisive showdown are Chelsea and Leeds. The Reds also meet Norwich, Crystal Palace, Brentford and Burnley during the opening encounters, a much gentler introduction to 2021/22 compared to their major rivals for silverware.

3. CHELSEA (5/1 BET365)

Manchester City were Premier League top dogs once again in 2020/21 as the Citizens regained their status as league champions for the fifth time in the Premier League era.

It was also Pep Guardiola’s third EPL title and it looks like he could be sticking around for a few more as the Catalan coach has signed a contract keeping him in Manchester until 2025.

As Pep is about to embark on another title defence, it is worth noting he is only one of three managers to regain the top-flight gong - Sir Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho the other two - highlighting the difficult clubs find the prospect of repeating their high standards.

Even so, if Guardiola can lure two of the best players the league has to offer in Jack Grealish and Harry Kane to The Etihad, it will be tough to look past the Blue Moon.

Between them, they contributed to 53 goals last campaign, so just imagine how lethal they could be under the tutelage of one of the greatest coaches of all-time.

Nevertheless, the Champions League has always been a priority at City and the focus seems to have shifted - especially amongst their fans - to securing a maiden European trophy. This, combined with the tough set of opening fixtures, could see the Citizens playing catch up.

Therefore, I am going to suggest they may fall short of Liverpool this season.

22 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Therefore, it might be worth taking the Blues at the odds of 7/1 (Betway) to win the FA Cup, as well as regaining their Champions League title at 10/1 (BetVictor) for this upcoming campaign, as opposed to Premier League glory.

Interestingly, Tuchel replaced Klopp at both Mainz and BVB and you can see how he absorbed some of his emotional qualities. At Dortmund, Tuchel introduced handshakes and insisted on eye-contact, which not only commanded respect but allowed him to understand his players on a more personal level, which meant he could motivate them for specific occasions.

In the short time in England, his side were unbeaten in their five games against the Big Six and reached cup two finals. And so the European champions will come into the new campaign brimming with confidence.

However, I do not think he has the stamina to sustain a title challenge, which is why I feel his side will fall short behind Liverpool and Man City.

4. MAN UTD (8/1 BET365) Silverware once again evaded Manchester United last season as they finished second, 12 points behind local rivals Manchester City, whilst losing out to Villarreal in the Europa League final.

However, as the new season dawns it looks like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is building something special as he acquired two impressive talents this summer.

First, United secured the signature of Jadon Sancho from Dortmund. In his four seasons in the Bundesliga, the former City youth talent racked up 45 assists and found the net 38 times in 104 appearances. That is an average goal contribution of 0.79 per game!

Next, world champion Raphael Varane is due to arrive at Old Trafford. Perhaps the biggest nod to his pedigree is how the Real Madrid fans mourned the loss of the French centrehalf on social media.

With 20 domestic titles between the new additions, the duo will not only bolster the Red Devils’ in both boxes but also inject a winning mentality into the squad, something that has been lacking since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson.

My scepticism towards Man Utd’s title credentials - or capability of winning any silverware this season - stems from the man at the helm. Solskjaer was brought in amidst an identity crisis at Old Trafford and you have to assume he wouldn’t have gotten the chance

5. LEICESTER CITY (66/1 SKYBET) if he hadn’t played for them. Even so, he has done just about enough to keep his position.

Solskjaer has always been a student of the game with a thirst for knowledge. That being said, I think his social skills eclipse his tactical nous. His biggest strength is his understanding of the cultural dynamic at United, plus the players at the club, especially the homegrown stars.

Tactically though, OGS is inept. He thrives off being the underdog and loves to deploy a counter-attacking system. That’s not to say this hasn’t worked on a few big occasion – twice going to the Parc Des France and beating PSG, as well as triumphs over Man City.

But the team in the league that is responsible for 80% of the top-flight’s biggest transfers should never be considered underdogs, and nor is this tactic sustainable.

His Man Utd side are built on a solid defensive foundation which gives his attackers freedom to do as they please. This has seen the Red Devils thump sides domestically - the 6-2 win versus Leeds for example - although without that tactical guidance on the biggest of stages United have fallen short of a trophy.

During Solskjaer’s managerial stint at Old Trafford, United have made it past the quarterfinals of the Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup five times but only made it to the final once, which they lost. He’s the chief reason why I can’t foresee a sustained title challenge.

Leicester are about to embark on their eighth consecutive Premier League campaign. This current tenure has seen the Foxes crowned as champions, however, the gulf between the top clubs and the rest is broadening and City’s attention - and attainable goal – remains on gate-crashing the top-four this term.

For the second season in succession, Leicester missed out on the final day as Spurs beat the Foxes 4-2 and meant they again finished outside of the Champions League qualification berths in fifth.

Last term was not a complete disappointment though as Brendan Rodgers masterminded an FA Cup triumph for the first time in the club’s history.

Coming into 2021/22, whilst I am sure Rodgers will have some new systems to deploy, I do not think Leicester will have enough to best the likes of Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool and seize that top-four spot.

Therefore, I have the Foxes pegged at fifth for a third time.

One player I am keen to see this campaign is Kelechi Iheanacho. Since joining he has lived in the shadow of Jamie Vardy but his form in front of goal towards the back end of last campaign was irresistible.

Of the Premier League’s top 20 goalscorers, only Gareth Bale (1.07) had a better goals per-90 average than the Nigerian (0.74).

Therefore, I want to doff my cap to his price of 50/1 (SkyBet) in the Top Goalscorer market.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 23

6. LEEDS UTD (150/1 BETFAIR)

7. ARSENAL (60/1 BETFAIR) Arsenal and Mikel Arteta are in the middle of a rebuild but this has been difficult to instigate since his tenure began midway through the 2019/20 campaign.

It looks as though the Spaniard has been taking two steps forward and one step back in his maiden managerial role.

Although Arteta’s predecessor Unai Emery inherited Arsene Wegner’s squad and the cultural dynamics that came with it, Wenger’s placid nature and trust in his roster often meant players were afforded the benefit of the doubt. And if you give a football player an inch, they will take a mile.

8. BRIGHTON (500/1 BETVICTOR) After a frustrating campaign last time out, I expect the law of averages will balance out for Graham Potter’s data darlings.

Last term, Brighton finished in 16th on 41 points. However, according to Expected Points (xP) tables, the Seagulls should have finished fifth with around 20 points more. In fact, this has been a regular theme during their Premier League tenure.

Since promotion in 2017, according to their xP output, the Seasiders should have won around 27 more points than they have actually accrued with Expected Goals (xG) data suggesting Albion could have notched 18 goals more than their raw numbers returned.

The wasteful nature of Brighton’s play was a feature of the last term as Potter’s side missed a staggering 71% of the big chances they created (according to SofaScore).

This does not faze their manager though with Potter all about the big picture, longevity and process.

He’s been described as a ‘lifelong learner’ and will never taken a short-term solution - I think this will pay dividends and catapult Brighton into the top-half.

It feels strange that this will only be Leeds’ second season in their current stint in the top-flight as they looked so comfortable last year under Marcelo Bielsa’s watch.

Affectionally dubbed ‘El Loco’ for his obsessive personality and explosive character, the Argentine mastermind some incredible performances as the Whites went toe-to-toe with some of the best the league has to offer.

He has catapulted the side into a top-half Premier League team, and given his obsessive character, I do not think we will see another case of second season syndrome afflicting a newly-promoted high achiever.

In fact, I think we will see the opposite as Leeds improve upon last season. The West Yorkshire giants finished ninth with a total of 59 points, and I think this is credit to Bielsa’s tactical innovation and style he has implemented at Elland Road – labelled ‘Murder Ball’ in some quarters.

Leeds is the 13th club Bielsa has taken charge of and it is his longest stint in a coaching role.

Prior to this job he has found it tough to settle, however, it appears that he is trying to create a bit of a legacy with the Whites.

He did not return to his homeland over the summer which reinforces this and gives an implication into how much depth goes into his prep.

I think this year-on-year improvement will continue and Leeds could break the top-six.

Therefore, in Arteta’s first seasonand-a-half at the helm he has spent the majority of his time fighting fires instead of implementing his ideologies, which is why we saw Mesut Ozil and Matteo Guendouzi shipped out.

It is also why there has not been major progress at The Emirates thus far.

The Gunners have finished eighth in both of their campaigns under Arteta, and despite their FA Cup triumph in 2020, Arsenal’s fans are demanding more.

The Spaniard is undoubtedly under pressure coming into the season, but if the club give him the opportunity to see out the 2021/22 renewal, I think the Gunners will improve upon last season’s finish.

24 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

10. EVERTON (200/1 BETFAIR)

11. WEST HAM (200/1 BETFAIR

It was a Christmas miracle when three-time Champions League winner Carlo Ancelotti took over at Goodison Park in December of the 2019/20 campaign. The appointment was a statement of intent and had the Toffees faithful dreaming of what could be on the horizon.

However, 67 games later and the Italian has departed for Real Madrid having taken the Merseysiders from 10th to 12th in his two Premier League finishes.

Ancelotti’s transfer business felt quintessentially Everton - uninspiring and lacking innovation. A graphic tweeted by The Price of Football showed the average spend of top-flight clubs since Roman Abramovic took over Chelsea in 2003.

Alarmingly, the Toffees ranked seventh on this list yet their end-of-season finishes have been far from impressive.

During that sample, Everton have finished in seventh more times than they have finished in any other position (4), averaging 56 points and concluding their campaign between fifth and eighth in 63% of those years.

9. TOTTENHAM (60/1 BETFAIR) The best place to start when analysing Tottenham is probably the appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo. It must have been a busy summer for the Portuguese supremo as he was linked with just about every available Premier League before he eventually settled on Spurs.

The move seems like an attempt by the board to emulate the culture of Mauricio Pochettino as the capital club try to re-establish themselves as a top side and land a spot in the Champions League.

However, owner Daniel Levy will not see instant results with Nuno. NES has already highlighted areas that need improvement, and whilst he did get promoted as champions in his first season with Wolves - with one of the biggest budgets the Championship has ever seen - he did not necessarily accomplish his goals at Valencia and Porto.

What Nuno does bring to any club though is a spirit of togetherness, and this will be crucial following Jose Mourinho’s disastrous tenure.

Unsurprisingly, I think the fate of Spurs’ campaign rests on Harry Kane’s shoulders and whether or not he stays or moves on.

Last season, Kane contributed to 37 goals winning the Golden Boot and the Playmaker of the Season awards - and these contributions won Tottenham 40 points. Without them, the North Londoners would have finished on 22 points!

Spurs are embarking on a rebuild and even if they keep Kane - which looks likely - I do not see much improvement on 2020/21.

Without modification or increased spend they will continue with the status quo and the appointment of Rafa Benitez certainly does not scream ambition.

Despite what his trophy-studded CV indicates, Benitez tends to hit par with clubs he manages and this is best illustrated when you compare his achievements with Newcastle in his two seasons in the EPL with what Steve Bruce has done in the two since.

Upon the Toon’s return to the top table, the Magpies finished on 44 points, then in the season after 45 points. Bruce took over and finished on 44 points then last season managed 45 points. Literally identical records which again suggest Everton could be making another sideways move.

After finishing sixth with a record points haul of 65, David Moyes will have to prepare his West Ham side for another tough top-flight campaign, as well as a maiden voyage in the Europa League this time around.

The Hammers faithful took a while to warm to their Scottish supremo but on the dawn of his third season, in what is his second stint in charge of the Irons, the relationship between the club and the fans is as tight as it has been since they left their spiritual home of Upton Park.

There will have been a sense of redemption for Moyes after last season’s success. The Scotsman has not been given a proper crack at management since he left Old Trafford in 2014, however, he has finally been given the opportunity to build something again in East London.

Watching his side last season and seeing how he conducts himself, you get the sense Moyes makes the game simple for his squad - he just wants consistency, 7/10 performances every game - which takes the pressure off his side.

Obviously, he will demand the fundamentals - professionalism, punctuality, work rate and endeavour, but positionally he makes the game uncomplicated for each individual.

For example, looking at the calibre of his defenders, Moyes just wants his players to be able to defend over anything. Craig Dawson and Angelo Ogbonna are not the sexiest ball players but they dominate in both boxes and would throw themselves in front of anything.

This is highlighted by the fact the pair top West Ham’s clearance charts, averaging 8.1 between them per-game.

So what can we expect of the Hammers?

Given their UEL qualification, I think we can draw parallels to Moyes’ early days at Everton, where in his fourth season in charge they finished fourth. The following campaign the Toffees form regressed as they slumped to 11th, and something similar occurred at Burnley (seventh to 15th) following their own UEL qualification.

Last season we also saw how injuries scuppered the Irons’ chances of a top-four finish. Moyes is renowned for having a tightknit group and with a lack of squad depth, the Hammers could struggle to compete on all fronts. Therefore, I have them hovering around mid-table this term.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 25

12. WOLVES (750/1 SPREADEX)

13. ASTON VILLA (200/1 BETFAIR) Talk about fine margins - two seasons ago Aston Villa stayed up on the last day of the campaign by just a single point, whereas last term they rocketed up the rankings to post an 11th-placed finish. Now coming into their third Premier League campaign since promotion, the Villans have the whiff of an established top-flight side about them once more.

I think this is largely down to their gaffer Dean Smith. He is a principled and humble man, who prides himself on a set of core values that everyone within his club needs to follow. The unity from top to bottom under Smith’s watch should be palpable as he focuses just as much on the development of players as people, as he does making them better footballers.

There is an air of romance in the fact Villa is run, managed and captained by boyhood fans. At the start of each season Smith asks his players to summarise in three words what they want to associate with the club in the coming campaign. By doing so he gives his players ownership of the club’s values and clarity in what they want to achieve.

Therefore, the culture of the club and values that the fans hold dear will always resonate

As Nuno Espirito Santo has departed, it not only marks the end of an era for Wolves, but could suggest the Old Gold have reached their ceiling.

Following back-to-back relegations, Wolves sunk to the third-tier. However, thanks to excellent recruitment, their meteoric rise ended with Wanderers finishing seventh in their first season back in the Premier League.

Whilst that was equalled in the campaign after, the club dropped back last time out to 13th.

The downturn coincided with the absence of Raul Jimenez as the Mexican striker missed the majority of the season with a fractured skull.

Without the focal point, Wolves play became stale and they struggled to find an identity.

Santo often switched tactics and formation as he flustered between a back three and a back two, struggling to make either work.

This campaign Jimenez returns under the guidance of a new boss, Bruno Lage, as Wolves look to reinvent themselves.

Given the quality of the squad at Lage’s disposal, I do not think we will see further regression but I’m not expecting the Old Gold to emulate the success of their first two campaigns back at this level.

26 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

through the side’s performances, which is a pretty solid foundation to have.

Tactically, however, Villa do not have an edge.

Last season their front four interchanged superbly and posed a threat on the counter but they quickly became a known entity. This is best epitomised by the fact that they won 32 points in the first half of the season and only 23 in the second half.

Interestingly, this slump in their performances does coincide with the absence of a certain Jack Grealish. With him in the starting XI, Villa averaged 1.73 points per-game yet without the skipper they managed just 0.93! With that in mind, the success of their season surely hinges entirely on his future.

The dilemma on whether to sell Grealish or not does pose a bit of an issue to Smith because if he was to stand in his way of a move to Man City he would be contradicting the culture he has implemented, and it could undermine all his hard work. However, if they do keep hold of him, it would be a real statement of intent to move the club up to the next step.

14. SOUTHAMPTON (750/1) Speculation as to where Danny Ings will be playing his football this season has rumbled on all summer long. However, with the new campaign almost upon us, it looks more and more likely that the Southampton talisman will remain on the south coast, and this could be Saints’ most important piece of business.

15. NEWCASTLE UTD (750/1) Last season, Newcastle finished 12th with a tally of 45 points. This was the second time in their four-season stint amongst England’s elite they have concluded their campaign on 45 points, during the other two renewals the Magpies managed exactly 44. Consistent.

However, in their most recent campaign, it was not until the final stretch of the campaign that Toon really distanced themselves from the drop.

Interestingly, this upturn in form, results and performances arrived alongside the introduction of Graeme Jones to the backroom staff.

Jones came in towards the end of January.

Prior to his arrival, Newcastle were on a run of five straight defeats and had not won in nine domestic fixtures. Jones’s immediate impact was noticeable - not only because United beat Everton 2-0 at Goodison in his first game, but you could physically see him shouting instructions on the touchline.

Splitting the Toon’s season into halves - pre and post Jones - you can clearly see the impact he had. Under Bruce,

Newcastle played 20 games and averaged 0.95 points and goals per-game. After Jones arrived, the Magpies averaged 1.45 points and 1.50 goals from 18 outings.

Jones’ impact did not go unnoticed, which is why Gareth Southgate took him with England on a temporary basis for the Euros.

Consequently though, this has meant he’s now missed Newcastle’s pre-season, which has been a pretty mixed affair. Bruce’s men lost to non-league York and drew to League one side Rotherham.

Perhaps more worryingly though, the manager played Jeff Hendrick as a lone striker against the Millers. With Yoshinori Muto getting moved on and Andy Carroll allowed to leave, you have to wonder how much depth he has in that position. And as I write, Newcastle are yet to make a summer signing.

All of which does not bode very well for the Magpies start to the season. Therefore, with Jones waiting in the wings, I think SkyBet’s price of 9/1 for Steve Bruce to be the First Manager To Leave appeals. That being said, I still believe Newcastle will ultimately have enough to stay up.

Inconsistency was rife for Southampton last season. They topped the table at the start of November, but they were then amongst league’s basement boys for the entirety of 2021 as they picked up just 17 points from 22 games despite reaching the semi-finals of the FA Cup. Ralph Hasenhuttl said he struggled with the quick turn around and congested fixtures last term. After leaving RB Leipzig and before getting appointed by Southampton, the German used the months of unemployment to shadow coaches he had previously worked under.

It’s also worth noting that in Germany, Hasenhuttl used to like watching games from the stands and I think both of these things suggest that he is not quick to process games and information. He has also spoken about his love for video analysis and utilising statistics to develop his players on the training ground, which would have been tricky to implement with the obstacles COVID caused last season.

With things largely back to normal, Hasenhuttl should be poised to cope with the fixture schedule in the Premier League again, which should mean we see a more consistent Saints side throughout the campaign.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 27

16. WATFORD (1500/1 SKYBET)

17. NORWICH CITY (1500/1)

Amidst a re-build, Crystal Palace’s summer was largely consumed by their pursuit of a new manager. What was slightly unsettling though was the vast range of names - in terms of experience, style and background - thrown into the mix.

Promotion from the Championship after a one-year stay means Watford are about to embark on their eighth Premier League campaign.

Their most recent top-flight stint lasted five seasons but prior to that, the Hornets have managed only one-season stays – the aim therefore will be to reinstate themselves at the top table as quickly as possible.

Watford finished second behind Norwich after accumulating 91 points, 57 of which came following the appointment of Xisco Munoz a total that was only matched by the Canaries over that same spell.

While Munoz remains a bit of an unknown entity in the UK, he has wasted no time this summer bringing the likes of Danny Rose, Josh King and Ashley Fletcher to Vicarage Road to supplement a squad that already has plenty of experience at this level.

Whilst they are one of the favourites for relegation, they already have Premier League infrastructure in place and this, alongside their experienced squad, will be crucial in the battle for survival.

I do expect Watford to be battling towards the bottom for the majority of the season but I’m backing the Hornets to end up on the right side of the dotted line.

18. CRYSTAL PALACE (1000/1)

Stuart Webber stuck by Daniel Farke following Norwich’s dreadful relegation from the top-flight in 2019/20 and the German supremo certainly repaid the faith as the Canaries bounced immediately back as champions of the second-tier.

Interestingly, Farke has always seen out his contract at both of the previous two clubs he’s managed, so quitting on Norwich was never really an option for him, either. That loyalty speaks volumes of his character and core values, and judging by his time in Norfolk, he is all about galvanising people behind a cause.

Farke appears to have created a bubble down there and he protects that and everyone within it. For example, the former Dortmund coach uses the media to keep the focus off his squad, and this in turn keeps the positivity round Carrow Road, giving the illusion that everything is on track. This breeds confidence and resilience into his players which is why they will fancy their chances of staying up.

In Norwich’s previous short stint in the EPL, they also came up as champions, scoring the most goals of any Championship side (93) since Bournemouth (98) in 2014/15. That campaign, City’s philosophy was simple; outscore the opposition and it quickly became apparent from their opening game (Liverpool 4-3 Norwich) they were going to persist with the system.

Ultimately, the wheels quickly came off. Norwich went on to lose their last 10 games and were relegated on 21 points. This time around, Farke will not make the same mistakes, although he will have to make do without Emi Buendia. The Argentine playmaker contributed to 31 goals last term, averaging 0.81 goal contributions pe90.

But even without their talisman, I think Norwich have enough quality and experience to beat the drop this time around.

28 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

For me, I think that shows the boardroom did not have a plan as to what direction they wanted to take the club. This point is reflected by the fact most of their recent appointments have been made mid-season as form begins to slump, the likes of Tony Pulis, Neil Warnock, Sam Allardyce and Alan Pardew have all come in to firefight midseason - even Roy Hodgson was appointed four games into the campaign.

The last manager the club hired in the summer was Frank de Boer and the less said about that the better. In fact, I think a few parallels can be drawn to that episode and that of current incumbent Patrick Vieira - both were big-name players that come into managerial jobs without major track records but have clear philosophies on how they want to play.

It is worth noting that in his first season in Ligue 1, Vieira’s Nice team conceded the second-fewest goals (35), but, they also scored the second fewest (30), which suggests the Frenchman could be all about the process and building a solid foundation.

One thing we have seen this summer is his allure as the Eagles have secured the signatures and loan signings of some top talents. Marc Guehi, Joachim Andersen and Michael Olise have joined permanently, and Conor Gallagher has also joined temporarily.

All things considered, I think that Palace could be in for a tough season as both their manager and young players bed-in and learn about the league. I don’t think this is an appointment that will see immediate improvement, which is why the Eagles could suffer an alarming dropoff in Hodgson’s wake.

20. BRENTFORD (1000/1) Brentford’s journey to the promised land began over a decade ago when sports betting extraordinaire Matthew Benham bought the Bees.

Benham did not pin his hopes on getting to the Premier League with audacious spending on players or personnel, instead he applied the same strategies that had made him a successful gambler – analytics - at the West London club.

The results weren’t immediate; however, the Bees are just a matter of days away from their first top-flight fixture in more than 70 years in a brand new stadium, suggesting the datadriven approach has clearly paid off.

That is off the pitch though. On it there remains a lot of questions that need to be answered, such as, will Brentford’s style of play prove to be successful in the Premier League? Will Ivan Toney be able to score as many goals at this level? And how will Thomas Frank’s tactics fare against the likes of Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel?

final to Fulham. Last term they also capitulated before making amends at Wembley.

Therefore, I think there are question marks over this side’s character. In 2020/21, they conceded the first goal in 32% of their domestic fixtures and only went on to win five of those games. Given the superior quality of this division, I do fear this inexperienced squad does not have the relative resolve to overcome such setbacks.

I also do not think Brentford’s naïve and unrelenting trust in their own system is going to be enough to keep them up. West Ham have already punished them for playing out from the back in a pre-season friendly and meaner frontlines await Frank’s troops this term.

If the Bees are going to stand any chance of survival, I believe they need to hit the ground running and hope Toney’s goalscoring form translates into the top-flight.

It feels like Brentford’s promotion has been inevitable. In 2019-20 they missed out on automatic promotion on the last day of the season after defeat to basement boys Barnsley, they then went on to lose in the play-off

S e a n D y c h e dubbed last term his toughest top-flight campaign to date. Burnley finished just above the bottom-three, and if it was not for three utterly woeful teams they might not have been so lucky. However, this season I do not think the Clarets will beat the drop.

I understand many punters have underestimated Burnley’s Lego-headed stalwart in seasons gone by with Burnley routinely defying the relegation odds since retuning to the top-flight in 2016. But this could now be one campaign too many.

Dyche’s success at Turf Moor was built on emotional intelligence and logic as he relies on his ability to understand his players and thus how to motivate them - which has allowed him to keep the football side of things very simple, often only exploring one or two ideas at a time.

He has milked the siege mentality and relied on a solid defence to manoeuvre his way to safety.

Even so, Dyche’s reluctance to sign his new lucrative deal undermines everything he has created, which is why I have them to finish in the drop zone. I have also had a small play on the Clarets boss to be the Next Manager To Leave at 25/1 with Betfair giving his ongoing negotiations.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 29

OUTRIGHT WINNER CHAMPIONSHIP Picking the winner of the ultra-competitive Championship is normally a thankless task. Three seasons ago we were presented with eight clubs at odds of 12/1 or shorter in the Outright Winner market but it was Norwich (25/1) who took title honours, the joint-biggest priced winners this century.

However, two terms ago, 5/1 favourites Leeds dotted up.

The Whites were just the third Championship jolly after Newcastle (2016/17) and Man City (2001/02) to claim top honours since 2000/01, and last time out 13/2 market-leaders Norwich repeated the feat. In fact, the top three in the ante-post betting all secured promotion in 2020/21, the first occasion such a scenario has played out since records began.

The Canaries’ recent success means 11 (48%) of the past 23 favourites or joint-favourites this century have foraged a way to the promised land, suggesting the likes of recently-relegated Fulham (11/2 SkyBet) and West Brom (13/2 Bet365) command maximum respect ahead of their returns to the second-tier.

Dissenters will point to the fact that demoted clubs have claimed only six Championship titles in the past 21 campaigns, posting average finishing positions that indicate a play-off place is more likely. But separating ourselves from historic trends, it’s almost impossible to ignore the claims of the top four in the market – with all appear a cut above the rest.

At this stage, the likelihood of a surprise bolter from the pack appears remote - should any challenger from elsewhere in the division finish above Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United (8/1 Sporting Index) or Bournemouth (10/1 Unibet), we’re in for an enthralling campaign of second-tier football.

Let the games begin…

FULHAM / WEST BROM DUAL FORECAST

Last term saw two of the three relegated teams bounce straight back to the Premier League with Norwich and Watford occupying the automatic promotion places, whilst Bournemouth finished inside the play-off positions. As we well know, money talks in this game and the impact of COVID on second-tier finances handed the trio an even greater advantage.

That trend could extend to 2021/22 with Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United dropping back down without the usual degree of turmoil or upheaval encountered by demoted clubs. In fact, the trio have arguably upgraded their options in the managerial dugout with Marco Silva, Valerien Ismael and Slavisa Jokanovic taking the relevant hot-seats.

Fulham understandably take the honours at the top of the market. The Cottagers may have seen many of their Premier League personnel depart yet Silva can still call upon a frightening array of seasoned second-tier options.

Aleksandar Mitrovic, Tom Cairney, Michael Hector and Harrison Reid have all proven they’re too good for this level, and that’s just scraping the surface. Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa is still available after an eye-catching last campaign, and Harry Wilson has been added to the mix. Almost every position is covered with quality and Fulham should take all the beating.

Many have been quick to dismiss Silva

after a mediocre reign at Everton, although spells at Watford and Hull suggest he’s still a very capable coach. The Portuguese has displayed tactical versatility in the past and he should employ a more energetic, frontfoot approach than predecessor Scott Parker as the Cottagers promise to utilize their superior firepower.

With 19 players with promotion-winning CVs amongst the available options, it would be a surprise to see the capital club conclude the campaign outside of the toptwo.

West Brom haven’t finished outside of the top-six in any of their most recent eight seasons in the Championship – that sequence includes five promotion campaigns – and Albion have already set their sights upon an immediate bounce back to the top-flight.

After a long drawn-out process, the WBA hierarchy moved to make last year’s Manager of the Season, Valerien Ismael, their new head honcho.

The former Bayern Munich defender transformed Barnsley into major promotion contenders almost overnight with a suffocating press and a 3-4-3 system that

30 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

bamboozled the majority of their secondtier opponents.

Ismael has snapped up influential former Tykes skipper Alex Mowatt and solid ballplaying centre-back Matt Clarke, whilst Grady Diangana, Callum Robinson, Karlan Grant and Robert Snodgrass are all still available to engineer an exciting assault on the podium positions with the club resigned to losing playmaking ace Matheus Pereira in the coming weeks.

Like Fulham, the roster remains packed with players that would walk into practically every team in the Championship, and although it may take time for West Brom to get up to speed under their new head coach, the Baggies could represent a daunting prospect once the Frenchman achieves the synergy and buy-in from his new playing personnel.

It’s a devilishly difficult job to decipher the top end of the market, and in all honesty, I could easily make a case for any of the top four taking top honours. So rather than put my eggs into a couple of skinny prices, I’m instead recommending a crack at the 20/1 Dual Forecast for Fulham and West Brom finishing in the automatic promotion places (in any order).

Mark O’Haire @markohaire FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has analysed the Outright Winner market ahead of the 2021/22 Championship campaign, highlighting his best bets.

NOTTM FOREST TO MAKE THE PLAY-OFFS

Outside of the obvious, it’s difficult to pinpoint more than a handful of sides with designs and intentions of progression or promotion.

Mick McCarthy (Cardiff), Neil Warnock (Middlesbrough) and Michael O’Neill (Stoke) should all ensure their respective clubs are competitive, difficult to beat and inside the reckoning for a top-six finish.

Millwall are solid and stable under Gary Rowett, whilst Luton appear underrated following an eye-catching summer of signings under highly-rated Nathan Jones.

Q P R boasted the league’s third-best points return in the second half of last season and have realistic hopes of having a crack at the play-off places having undergone another impressive transfer window under Mark Warburton’s watch.

But I’m anticipating a decline from playoff pair Barnsley and Swansea despite memorable campaigns in 2020/21.

And so, could the conditions be right for an overdue challenge from Nottingham Forest?

BEST BETS FULHAM/WEST BROM DUAL FORECASTS 20/1 SKYBET NOTTINGHAM FOREST TO MAKE THE PLAY-OFFS 7/2 SKYBET

The Tricky Trees approach the new season with little attention or expectation, as well as a rare, but welcome, quiet summer on the recruitment front.

That’s given respected head coach Chris

Hughton the breathing space required to imprint his ideals on a much smaller squad.

Languishing at this level since 2008/09, the underachieving East Midlanders haven’t reached the top-six since 2011 but there were signs Forest were moving slowly in the right direction after Hughton’s arrival.

The Reds’ supremo hasn’t finished outside of the top-four in his last three full seasons in the Championship and should give this group a really solid platform.

Sure, Joe Worrall and Brennan Johnson are being touted

by Premier L e a g u e clubs but I’m counting on Hughton’s p a s t experience to turn last season’s solidity in success considering the strength of the division is weaker on the whole compared to previous incarnations.

Few are forecasting much more than midtable obscurity, I like Forest’s prospects of making the play-offs at 7/2 (SkyBet), especially so if the Reds can get Lewis Grabban back amongst the goals on a more consistent basis. With Alex Mighton expected to kick-on, Joao Carvalho back in the frame, and Lyle Taylor in the ranks, there’s enough final-third quality to sustain significant improvement on their 17thplaced finish last term.

theY haven’t reached the top-six since 2011 but there were signs Forest were moving slowly in the right direction.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 31

RELEGATION CHAMPIONSHIP

Mark O’Haire @MarkOHaire

Disastrous, diabolical, and seemingly doomed sums up Derby’s expectations coming into the 2021/22 renewal. The disorganised Rams escaped the plunge to League One on the final day of last season but realistically Wayne Rooney’s charges are in no fit state to avoid another distressing campaign.

Cash-strapped County start the season with a suspended three-point penalty, are under a transfer embargo and subject to plenty of takeover talk.

The financial uncertainty and current restrictions have ravaged the roster with over 10 senior players departing in the summer without any new additions arriving to bulk up a shockingly short squad.

The situation is so severe, bookmakers are refusing to even offer odds on Derby’s demotion to League One and it would take an extraordinary feat on Rooney’s behalf to oversee the current crop to safety. Last term’s lowest goalscorers looked primed to end their 14-year stay in the second-tier by propping up the division.

CHAMPIONSHIP

RELEGATION

Promoted pair Peterborough (3/1 SkyBet) and Blackpool (3/1 SkyBet) therefore head the Championship relegation betting without Derby but trend-spotters could blindly argue the newcomers offer little value considering the fine recent record of League One clubs consolidating in the second-tier this century.

Looking back over the drop-zone records since 2000, only 12 (19%) promoted teams suffered the ignominy of an immediate bounce back to League One, with all three newbies surviving in 11 (52%) of 21 Championship campaigns during that same sample.

Rotherham and Wycombe’s brief secondtier stays in 2020/21 diminish those returns slightly, although seasoned Championship watchers appreciate the Millers were dealt a devilishly difficult hand due to COVIDenforced scheduling issues. So I’m happy to give the aforementioned duo, plus third-tier champions Hull, the benefit of the doubt.

Instead, I’m focussing my attention on three clubs at reasonable prices that reek of stagnation ahead of the 2021/22 renewal.

HUDDERSFIELD TO BE RELEGATED Huddersfield finished just six points clear of the relegation zone last season yet Expected Points (xP) calculations suggested the Terriers were fortunate to survive. Town ranked inside the bottom-three in ratio terms for both Expected Goals (xG) and xG from open play, whilst also completing the campaign with the division’s worst defensive record.

Back-to-back wins were achieved only twice, no surviving side collected fewer points on the road, whilst only Frazier Campbell and Josh Koromoa managed to score more than five league goals. It’s fair to say, Carlos Corberan’s first campaign in charge at the John Smith’s Stadium underwhelmed, and with little sign of potential progression, a tough season awaits.

Huddersfield have endured four consecutive relegation battles – finishing only three points above the dotted line on their first season back at Championship level - and should intheory be battle-hardened. However, the squad still appears to lack cohesion and bodies, with the club’s bottom-half budget and wasted parachute payments leaving Town short.

No-nonsense centre-half Matty Pearson was a solid capture, left-back Josh Ruffels is backed to make the step-up, whilst right-back Ollie Turton and centre-back Tom Lees give the group much-needed ballast at the back. But the jury remains out on whether the summer reinforcements are the upgrades required to stem the defensive bleeding.

Elsewhere, star midfielder Lewis O’Brien is

subject to Premier League interest and could well be off before September, and in forward areas Huddersfield are shorn of reliable and consistent Championship performers.

The desire to return to a ‘high energy, high intensity, attacking style’ was pivotal in the decision to bring Corberan to the club last year but the West Yorkshire side have fallen well below expectations and look primed for a problematic season.

BLACKBURN TO BE RELEGATED Having overseen three successive seasons of progression, Tony Mowbray was unable to mount a play-off challenge with Blackburn last time out. A promising five-month spell fizzled out from February and Rovers concluded the campaign entrenched in the bottom-half due to 10 defeats in in their final 20 Championship fixtures.

Data experts may claim the Ewood Park outfit were unfortunate not to trouble the top-six – Blackburn sat amongst the play-off places when viewing Expected Points (xP) totals and Expected Goal (xG) ratios, yet the fan base remained frustrated and impatient by the lack of ambition from above, as well as an impractical playing style imposed by Mowbray.

With finances tight around the Lancashire club, plus a transfer embargo restricting Rovers’ prospects in recruitment this summer, there’s a despondent mood surrounding Blackburn heading into the new season. Star 28-goal striker Adam Armstrong has been heavily linked with a move away and his departure would leave an insurmountable void.

At the time of writing, no new additions have arrived and last term’s loan stars have yet to return. Considering 11 faces departed Ewood Park, Mowbray has been left with a scratch squad in pre-season and key asset Bradley Dack still recovering from serious injury. It’s therefore easy to see why Rovers followers are feeling rather blue ahead of 2021/22.

A long season could be on the cards for Blackburn and 8/1 (Betfair) quotes on relegation are simply too big to ignore.

READING TO BE RELEGATED Due to Derby’s aforementioned strife, I’m quite happy to play the percentages and chuck a dart at a couple of bigger prices. To do so, we have to try and envisage a significant drop-off in standards, or forecast potential financial issues that could lead to possible points penalties. In the case of Blackburn, and

my next wager Reading SkyBet), both apply.

(9/1

The Royals are under a transfer embargo after breaching profit and sustainability rules, running up an eye-gouging £100m loss across the previous three years. The Berkshire boys are therefore in the midst of a difficult offseason that’s seen two of their leading lights Omar Richards and Michael Olise – move onto pastures new without being replaced.

To make matters worse, powerful forward Yakou Meite is sidelined for the majority of the season and the squad appears alarmingly thin. Of course, should all players be fit and available, Veljko Paunovic can field a competitive XI that’s well capable of solidifying their place in the middle reach of the Championship. But life in the second-tier is rarely so serene.

There are also sufficient concerns over Paunovic’s ability to instigate a repeat of last term’s lofty seventh-placed efforts. Reading made a record-making start, taking 22 points from a possible 265, before averaging only 1.26 points per-game in the club’s final 38 fixtures with tactics boffs suggesting the Serbian supremo were found out after January.

Further regression would see the Royals drop into the relegation picture and 9/1 (SkyBet) quotes on a bottom-three finish just look a few ticks too big given the current climate.

BEST BETS HUDDERSFIELD TO BE RELEGATED 10/3 SKYBET BLACKBURN TO BE RELEGATED 8/1 BETFAIR READING TO BE RELEGATED 9/1 SKYBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 33

TOP GOALSCORER CHAMPIONSHIP

22/1

DOMINIC SOLANKE (22/1 SKYBET) It feels like this is the year for Dominic Solanke to really push on and take the league by the scruff of the neck. The former England U21 international hit 15 goals in 40 appearances for Bournemouth last season, but arguably could (and should) have had more.

Last season the Championship Top Goalscorer market was a great success for WLB readers with Kieffer Moore (Cardiff) and Adam Armstrong (Blackburn) both proposed as each-way punts at 33/1 and 40/1 respectively.

The pair finished second and fourth in the running, as Ivan Toney and Teemu Pukki completed the top-four finishers in the end of season places.

Armstrong’s haul of 28 goals would have been enough to win the Golden Boot in eight of the past 10 Championship seasons, so we can count ourselves a tad unfortunate there wasn’t a full pay-out at a juicy price. But it does go to show that some larger quotes are worth cheering on with each-way terms.

The average volume of goals required to top the tree in that 10-year Championship sample has been 27. Interestingly, only five top scorers from the same analysis actually won promotion, and so the selection doesn’t necessarily have to arise from a team you think will finish in the top-two.

Here I’ve highlighted one stronger, slightly shorter-priced runner, and two longshots that look too big to turn down at the prices.

Solanke’s Expected Goals (xG) per-game was a decent 0.41, in an odd season for his club, who went through managerial changes.

The south coast outfit have had their eyes set on Scott Parker for a while now and Bournemouth finally got their man this summer. It seems like he will be in charge for a relatively long stint the way the Cherries have gone about it and that stability is always good news for players.

Solanke has played 63 games at the top level but has never realised his potential in the Premier League. Now at 23, he should be coming to an age where he looks to take his game to the next level and potentially hit 20+ goals.

Although the dangerous Arnaut Danjuma could still leave, Bournemouth have an array of attacking options to give the frontman the service required, most notably Welsh playmaker David Brooks and new signing Emiliano Marcondes.

Right now, there is not really a striker to compete with him either for a starting berth, meaning he should be involved week-in, week-out, which is always a benefit when betting in this market.

Solanke’s 2.70 shots per-game average last season shows he’s more than happy to have a crack at goal, it’s just adding that extra clinical layer that will surely come with experience.

Despite standing at 6 ft 2 in, the U20 World Cup winner is not someone who necessarily thrives off high balls into the box, yet it’s not a weakness, either. His knowledge of what type of run to make (and when) is also very good. He’s not lightning quick but can get an edge on defenders with his strength, gaining a yard to get a shot off when put through.

Only Danjuma managed more goals than Solanke for the Cherries last term, and if he does depart then there’s even more of the goalscoring burden on the striker.

Quotes of 22/1 (SkyBet) look a touch generous with Bournemouth hitman as short as 12/1 in places.

150/1 e/w

150/1 e/w

Tom Love @TomLove_18

STEVEN FLETCHER (150/1 ew) It’s been disappointment after disappointment for Stoke fans since dropping out of the Premier League.

Consistently priced up as one of the favourites for promotion, the Potters have often fell well short of expectations, and the mish-mash of a squad at the Bet365 Stadium will not have helped pragmatic boss Michael O’Neil - who seems to prefer a tighter-knit group dynamic.

Stoke are 10th in the betting for the Championship title this time round and being slight underdogs will favour O’Neil and this squad, especially now he has had a couple of transfer windows to get rid of players and trim down the squad.

As Northern Ireland boss, O’Neill thrived with his side being unfancied and it looks like he’s happy to go with a few experienced heads this term which is no surprise.

One of those who has been around the block is 34-year-old Steven Fletcher. The former Scotland international striker, who has hit double figures in six of his seasons in England, has been banging them in this pre-season and looks very likely to lead the line for the Staffordshire outfit.

Should Fletcher keep fit for the large majority of the campaign, I’d expect 15+ goals from the big man, especially if he’s on penalties – a duty he performed with excellent results for Wednesday.

Incredibly, Stoke didn’t even earn a spotkick last season – I’d expect that to change with the lively Rabbi Matondo, Jacob Brown and Tyrese Campbell looking to get in behind, not to mention the skill of Nick Powell in-and-around the box.

Quotes of 150/1 (BetVictor) just look too big to turn down. The key will be him keeping fit, but with the less-condensed schedule will only aid him in that respect.

He’s as short as 50/1 in places but even the 125/1 with Bet365 looks overpriced - any triple-figure price is worthy of an each-way play.

ELIJAH ADEBAYO (150/1 ew) One team I’m expecting to feature as a surprise package in the secondtier is Luton. I think Nathan Jones is an excellent manager at this level and the club structure suits him down to the ground. His tainted spell at Stoke wasn’t all his fault - the process was good but he didn’t have a striker he could rely upon to take the chances created.

In the past year or so the Hatters have chosen to take a more analytical approach to recruitment and teams who tend to go down this route can gain an edge on the more ‘old school’ methods that some teams and managers employ.

One of those canny signings was the arrival of Elijah Adebayo from Walsall in January.

TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has been tasked with tackling the ante-post Top Goalscorer market ahead of the 2021/22 Championship season. Here are his three favourite fancies.

With James Collins no longer about, there is also a chance our man will be on penalties, especially if he starts the season well.

When Jones first came in, his remit was to steer the club out of danger and he made the right tactical moves to be a low-margin team, chiefly focussed on defensive solidarity and picking up draws and wins by the odd goal.

He’s a progressive manager though and has talked about how he wants his side to show a bit more fluidity in the final third.

The rangy frontman was on the shopping list of many after showing his potential at the Saddlers.

The Town squad certainly possesses the ability to make that step up, and attacking players will feel comfortable doing so when they have the likes of Joe Morrell, Glen Rea and Pelly Rudock M’Panzu as defensive midfield options.

The positions he was getting into that will have impressed scouts - unfortunately, the supply was largely poor at his former club, yet he still managed to hit double figures in 25 league starts for Walsall in the first half of last season. And upon arrival in Bedfordshire, Adebayo notched on his debut in a 1-1 draw with Millwall.

I’m surprised Adebayo, who is very likely to lead the line for the Hatters, is as big as 150/1 (Bet365) to be the league’s Top Goalscorer. I’d have him more a 66/1 shot and the bulbous price on offer means we’ll earn a 37/1 pay-out if the Luton forward fails to take top honours but finishes in the top-four Championship goal-getters.

Fans like what he’s about and it’s easy to see why, with his quick feet and ability to score a variety of goals. Jones cited his physicality as a key component, something the Hatters lacked beforehand, but his clever movement and aerial ability - standing at 6 ft 4 in are alternative strings to his bow.

Luton have also brought last season’s League Two star, Carlos Mendes Gomes from Morecambe, as well as Wycombe winger Fred Onyedinma and Motherwell midfielder Allan Campbell.

That trio, along with Harry Cornick, provide plenty of skill, quality and energy behind Adebayo.

BEST BETS DOMINIC SOLANKE TOP SCORER 22/1 ew SKYBET

STEVE FLETCHER TOP SCORER 150/1 ew BETVICTOR

ELIJAH ADEBAYO TOP SCORER 150/1 ew BET365

CHAMPIONSHIP

SPECIALS

Tom Love @TomLove_18

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has scoured the dozens of Championship specials markets and shared his best bets ahead of the 2021/22 big kick-off.

ALWAYS LUTON THE BRIGHT SIDE..

This year’s Championship slate is an intriguing one with four sides way ahead of the rest in the betting. That includes relegated Premier League trio Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United, plus Bournemouth.

Behind the leading pack, experienced managers occupy the dugouts at Middlesbrough, Stoke, Nottingham Forest and Cardiff. Delve a little deeper and we’re then offered some interesting prices with one underrated outfit I’m expecting to embarrass the bookmakers this term, Luton Town.

Hatters boss Nathan Jones did sterling work in getting Town out of League One in his first spell as the Bedfordshire boys dominated the division with an energetic style and system that overawed opponents. Although the Welshman departed for Stoke, the plan in place at Kenilworth Road ensured Luton remained on autopilot in his absence.

Jones’ move to Staffordshire never really worked out. The Potters bloated squad featured many wantaway players from the club’s former Premier League days, and as such, things never really fell into place. It was a big job for the ex-Brighton youth coach, results underwhelmed, although the underlying process suggested potential promise.

AGAINST THE ODDS That ill-fated spell with Stoke was a blessing for Luton, who managed to get their main man back in the door to recover a sticky situation from Graeme Jones. Almost overnight, the Hatters appeared a more solid, organised and disciplined prospect with Nathan steering the group impressively out of the relegation picture, all against the odds.

Town followed up on those foundations by tabling a top-half finish in the Championship last term and the aim for Jones this term is to add extra layers to this side. Luton must ensure their obdurate defensive efforts are underpinned by more freedom and expression in the final-third. In essence, a better balanced

product is required to take the next step.

The head Hatters honcho could opt for a few formations this season with the traditional narrow 4-4-2 diamond being dispensed as Jones looks to keep the full-backs a bit more withdrawn. Indeed, 4-3-3 could be on the cards considering the wealth of midfield options,

last term, the league is just as competitive and they have the compound effects of Jones laying down his plans over the past year or so.

Improvement is well within the squad’s locker and that 7/4 is simply too big - it’s one of my favourite fancies of the summer.

I’ll also take a stab on Luton on the Season Handicap with a +20 point start.

A few people get confused with this market, but ultimately only one team in the league can win the Season Handicap. The league favourites are given a scratch (0) start and every other team are given a handicap (+4, +10, +18 etc) - the weaker the team is perceived to be by the market, the more points they get given as a head start.

plus the likes of Fred Onyedinma, Carlos Mendes-Gomes and Harry Cornick arriving to support the handful that is Elijah Adebayo.

You’re basically looking at who will overachieve the most. For example, it was no surprise that Sheffield United won the Season Handicap during the 2019/20 Premier League campaign after a remarkable top-flight season.

HOSTILE VENUE With fans back in stadiums, Kenilworth Road could also prove to be a key asset in the Hatters’ armoury. The traditionally hostile venue hosted an unbeaten home Luton record in 2018/19’s promotion campaign under Jones and the no-nonsense boss will be eager to make the club’s Bedfordshire base a really tough place to go for visiting teams.

I think Luton have been disrespected in a few markets but it’s the 7/4 (BetVictor) on the Bedfordshire outfit to finish in the top-half that appears the real standout selection.

Town are as short as even-money in places, which is where I expected them to be pricewise but Jones is a superior manager to more than half of the division. Luton concluded the most recent campaign with only five losses in 16 and their analytical approach to recruitment and match planning could give the group an edge on the more old-school operators.

Ultimately, the Hatters finished in the top half

36 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Now, without one side appearing streets ahead of the pack, the 20-point start given to Luton does appeal. Teams such as Reading, Bristol City and Millwall are on the same handicap, but I think the Hatters have a bit more about them, and ultimately can be trusted to a greater level.

It’s a bit of a flyer but should Town exceed everyone’s expectations, we should have a good run for our money.

BEST BETS LUTON TOWN TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF 7/4 BETVICTOR LUTON TOWN +20 SEASON HANDICAP 18/1 BET365

The ‘regional winner’ market might not cross everyone’s mind, but it’s always worth a look to see who is bunged in with who, and there’s a three-way battle for the Lancashire crown in the Championship between Blackburn, Preston and recently promoted Blackpool.

Amongst our trio of north-west competitors we have one side I’m expecting to surprise, plus two that could be looking over their shoulders in 2021/22.

Blackburn are odds-on at 5/6 and I just can’t be having that. With rumours still rife about 28-goal striker Adam Armstrong leaving, Rovers could be left short in the striking department. Chief creator Bradley Dack has struggled for fitness and it seems more likely he will miss more first-team action again across the coming campaign.

basis this summer although there’s little evidence to suggest the rookie will be a success story in his first permanent managerial gig.

Indeed, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see things run awry at Deepdale.

It’s an ageing Preston squad, especially in forward areas, and there are no real standouts defensively. I’d expect PNE to drop a bit lower and get dragged into a relegation battle this term.

DESERVES RESPECT

LACK OF DEPTH

That leaves Blackpool, the outsiders at 9/2.

I’ve never seen a side breeze through a playoff campaign with as much calmness as the Seasiders did earlier this summer. Even though the Tangerines won just 2-1 in the final against Lincoln, you could tell they had a hold of the game and Neil Critchley, in his debut post as first- team manager, deserves a lot of respect.

There’s not much depth when you take out the key Blackburn players and should Mowbray leave, it would not surprise me if they plumped for a polar opposite manager in terms of style and substance, a defensivelyminded boss that looks to keep games tight.

If that scenario does play out, I can’t see the current crop of players adapting too well.

Critchley made an important appointment in bringing in the highly-experienced Colin Calderwood as his assistant and the pair complemented each other well. The former Nottingham Forest boss has since moved on to Northampton but Blackpool moved quick to bring in Stuart McCall as the club’s secondin-command going forward.

Preston are second favourites in this mini market at 9/4 and I can’t see North End setting the world alight. Alex Neil tended to have the Lilywhites hovering around the playoff picture but after a pretty poor run he was sacked. PNE did get a bounce effect from his assistant Frankie McAvoy but there was little on the line at that point in the season.

Meanwhile, Critchley’s contact book has been hugely beneficial for recruitment drives.

Tyrese John-Jules has joined on-loan from the Arsenal academy and will be well-known to the chief having spent many years with the Liverpool youth setup. It was a similar situation with Demetri Mitchell last year who came in on a permanent deal from Manchester United.

Chairman Trevor Hemmings gave the experienced Scotsman the gig on a full-time

But ultimately, it’s more about process with the Seasiders. There’s plenty of options,

The Ewood Park side do boast some good youngsters in Lewis Travis, Tyrhys Dolan, Ben Brereton and Darragh Lenihan, but there’s a malaise around the place and gaffer Tony Mowbray has been questioned on numerous occasions by the fans.

maybe even too many, for the head coach.

But whoever he opts for will follow the plan to a tee - we saw that with the merry-goround of centre-halves during an injury crisis last term, only for clean sheets to prove a consistent commodity regardless.

In fact, for 75% of the season Blackpool boasted the best Expected Points (xP) return in League One, as well as actual points pergame. That’s a seriously impressive feat given the mass turnover in the squad this time last year, and there’s no reason why their process should drop off despite the step up a division.

CONFIDENCE Another key factor is the buoyancy around the club on the back of a promotion campaign - if the Tangerines can start in a strong fashion they could have the confidence to get the better of the bottom half. It’s the first real opportunity for supporters to see their side flourish since disgraced owner Owen Oyston sold the club and Bloomfield Road should be bouncing.

I’d have these three teams much closer together in the betting so the fact 3/1 is available on Blackpool has to be the play here.

BEST BET BLACKPOOL TO BE TOP LANCASHIRE CLUB 9/2 UNIBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 37

STATS & TRENDS CHAMPIONSHIP WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new Championship campaign.

Relegated Clubs

TH

9

Favourites

Average finishing position of a relegated club – 9th.

Relegated clubs have won the Championship in 6/21 seasons (29%) this century.

17/63 (27%) clubs have won promotion straight back to the Premier League with 30 (48%) finishing in the top-six, 47 (75%) in the top-half. Meanwhile, 16 (25%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 2 (3%) suffered back-to-back relegations.

League Winners

13/1

Average price – 13/1.

Average position finished year previously – 9th (6 were relegated clubs).

10 (63%) of the past 16 Championship title winners were priced up at 12/1 or larger.

8 (38%) of the past 21 winners were priced at single-figure odds.

6 (29%) of the past 21 league winners failed in the play-offs year previously.

5

5 (24%) of the past 21 league winners this century were priced at 20/1 or larger.

In two of the past four seasons, the league winners had finished in the bottom-half the year previous.

Any Other Business The top-scoring side in the Championship has been crowned champions in 12/21 (57%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 15 (71%) occasions (average finish 2nd).

12

The lowest (or joint-lowest) scoring side in the Championship has been relegated in 14/21 (67%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 7 (33%) occasions (average finish 22nd).

20/1

price

–

Average position finished year previously – 10th – 16 (25%) were relegated clubs, 2 (3%) were promoted clubs.

In 6 (29%) of the past 21 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.

Last season was the first time in 21 seasons that the top three in the betting all finished in the top three of the Championship.

PROMOted Clubs

TH

15

Average finishing position of a promoted club – 15th.

Only 12/63 (19%) promoted clubs have suffered immediate relegation.

All three promoted clubs have survived in 11 (52%) of the 21 seasons this century.

The best defence (or joint-best) has been crowned champions in 9/21 (43%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 17/21 (81%) seasons (average finish 2nd)

The side with the worst defence in the Championship has been relegated in 16/21 (76%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 12 (57%) occasions (average finish 23rd).

Last season was the first occasion multiple promoted clubs suffered immediate relegation since 2013/14 and only second campaign it’s occurred this century.

38 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Average price of the antepost favourite – 6/1

The ante-post favourite has won the title in the last two Championship seasons, and in 4 (19%) campaigns since the start of 2000/01.

8 (35%) of the past 23 favourites or joint-favourites this century have won automatic promotion.

11 (48%) of the past 23 favourites or joint-favourites this century have won promotion.

14 (61%) of the past 23 favourites or jointfavourites this century have finished in the top-six.

9

16 (76%) of the past 21 seasons has seen a side priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top three.

2 (3%) promoted clubs have won promotion again, 7 (11%) have finished in the top-six with 23 (37%) tabling tophalf finishes. Alternatively, 40 (63%) concluded their campaign in the bottomhalf with 12 (19%) suffering immediate demotion.

9

6

11

Top 3 Finishers Average 20/1.

TH

Average finishing position – 6th.

9 (39%) of the past 23 favourites or co-favourites this century have finished outside the top-six with 1 (5%) in the bottom-half.

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns

TH

9

The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 9th.

2 (10%) of the 21 play-off final losers have bounced back to win the title the following season – 6 (29%) claimed promotion, 9 (43%) registered top-six finishes and 15 (71%) concluded in the top-half.

However, 5 (24%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half with 1 (5%) relegated.

The average finishing position of a side involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign is 7th.

6

In 6 (29%) seasons this century, a team involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign has bounced back to win the league – 17 (27%) have won promotion the year after falling in the play-offs, with 27 (43%) tabling another top-six finish and 47 (75%) registering a top-half finish.

However, 16 (25%) ended in the bottomhalf with 2 (3%) relegated.

In 10 of the last 11 seasons, at least one team who lost out in the play-offs bounced back with a top-six finish.

NEW SEASON OFFER

WLBGOLD

JOIN US FOR THE SEASON GET 12 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF 9

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 39

HOW THEY’LL FINISH CHAMPIONSHIP James O’Rourke @JamesOR1

1. FULHAM (11/2 Bet365)

CHAMPIONSHIP specialist James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1) delivers his team-byteam verdicts ahead of the 2021/22 campaign, with a 1-24 rundown covering each club in-depth ahead of the new season.

2. WEST BROM (13/2 BET365)

3. BOURNEMOUTH (10/1 SKYBET)

It took long enough but in late June West Brom announced Barnsley boss Valérien Ismaël as the replacement for Sam Allardyce.

Whilst it was a long drawn-out process, the Baggies ultimately got a good man in the end.

The former Bayern Munich defender was the latest boss to impress at Oakwell and earn himself a move, and having guided the Tykes to a very unlikely play-off appearance, he’ll now believe he can go even further tasked with better players. He’s even brought Alex Mowatt along as well, who was integral to Barnsley’s success last season.

Before I start, I’ll admit that I have found the top of the table much, much harder to predict than the bottom! For as much as I have backed Fulham for top spot, on another day I could have gone West Brom or Bournemouth. I believe the title winner will come from one of those three.

In the end, I have just sided with Fulham. They too are another relegated side having to deal with a managerial change, and Marco Silva has decided to dip into the Championship for the first time in his career, having previously coached Hull, Watford and Everton in the Premier League.

I don’t think we’re at the point now where a manager desperately needs experience coaching at this level. It helps, but it’s no longer the ‘be all and end all’.

The Cottagers have spent big on Harry Wilson, who is proven at this level, and now he finally has a permanent home we could maybe see him reach another level. Regardless, the squad is full of top players for the league, such as Aleksandar Mitrovi and Tom Cairney, whilst those who didn’t make a big impact in the Premier League will feel more comfortable amongst this calibre of opponent.

Ismaël will also likely bring with him the 3-43 formation, and a high tempo game, with maybe more of a possession-based impetus, which should please the Baggies faithful. In addition to Mowatt, Matt Clarke has joined on-loan having been a key component in the Derby defence for a few seasons. He’ll provide balance in the back three.

The squad has been trimmed, which was always needed after relegation, but the futures of Sam Johnstone and Matheus Pereira remain unclear. It would be fair to say that they are planning for the season without these two, so it’d be a big bonus if they did decide to stay.

Nevertheless, there’s still enough in this West Brom squad to expect to be up near the top.

Grady Diangana was most impressive in the promotion season, and he may benefit from dropping down a level again. In an ideal world, they’d have more strength in depth, and maybe that is still to come, but the roster is packed with players that would walk into practically every team in the Championship.

A strong start is always needed to brush off any relegation hangover, but much like Fulham and Sheffield United, having a new manager can help overcome that.

Fulham do also have a talented academy to call upon if required, which is headlined by Fábio Carvalho, who is likely to have a bigger role after breaking onto the scene last season.

Silva can get a team playing, and this is a side you’d expect to only get stronger as the season goes on. The squad still has the promotion credentials from a few seasons ago integrated from within. We’ll know more about them once the window closes, but there’s not a lot to really knock about Fulham, who will expect an instant Premier League return.

40 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

T h e r e have been a fair few managerial changes over the summer, as usual, but perhaps one of the most unexpected alterations was seeing Scott Parker swap Fulham for Bournemouth.

That’ll spice up a bit of a rivalry between the two clubs even more, especially with both likely to battle for promotion anyway.

Nevertheless, it is something of a coup for Bournemouth, who really needed a new face at the helm as Jonathan Woodgate was only ever really a caretaker.

Given Woodgate was brought in by Jason Tindall, the previous boss, who in turn was long-time assistant to Eddie Howe, Parker is finally an ‘outsider’ given the task of leading the club. That should help and finally draw a line under the Howe days, which are certainly a thing of the past.

One tick in Parker’s column is he knows how to get out this league, and he inherits a strong squad. A replacement for Asmir Begovic is required, and keeping Arnaut Danjuma would be huge, but he remains heavily linked with a transfer. Nevertheless, David Brooks, Dominic Solanke and new recruit Emiliano Marcondes are top, top players at this level.

Bournemouth really should compete, even if Danjuma does depart. Parker will want to make his own mark on proceedings with some new faces, but given he has only been in the job for a month he may not change all that much. That is really all that is required considering they came so close last season, and arguably the red card in the play-off semi-final second leg cost them promotion.

There are many ticks in the Bournemouth column, but I guess their credentials are fully based on who they can keep beyond the transfer window, but the Cherries should improve as the season progresses under new management.

4. SHEFFIELD UTD (8/1 BETWAY)

5. MIDDLESBROUGH (20/1 UNIBET)

I must admit, the prediction of Sheffield United is the one I am most nervous about and possibly the one most likely to get stick for come the end of the season!

I think in any 1-24 prediction table there has to be a few relatively surprising selections, and I guess this one could fall into that category!

Boss Gary Rowett will now enter his second full season in charge of Millwall, and it is difficult not to take note of a few intriguing signings they’ve made. Bringing George Saville back to the club is an excellent piece of business, and he’ll suit this team perfectly.

The same applies to Dan Ballard on-loan from Arsenal, who impressed in helping Blackpool to promotion out of League One.

The fact of the matter is, the Blades are coming into this campaign following a season too bad to be true when relegated from the Premier League. The only reason I have indeed backed them to finish a lot higher than I initially was willing to go was the appointment of Slaviša Jokanović. He will at least provide a fresh outlook to a squad badly in need of it.

It is easier said than done to draw a line on last season, and I think hiring a new manager that is proven at this level will help in that regard. The squad hasn’t changed an awful lot as things stand, which in turn is another concern of mine, but on paper I just feel it is much better than most at this level.

Relegation is obviously a bad thing, but for certain players it will surely help, such as Rhian Brewster, who impressed with Swansea in this league but is yet to make an impact in the big league. Daniel Jebbison could have a bigger role to play as well after his impact under Paul Heckingbottom, whilst many experienced heads like John Egan, Chris Basham, John Fleck and Oliver Norwood are just the types you need in your squad to be successful in the Championship.

I do feel a strong start is paramount, as they don’t want to get into the habit of losing again. I would seriously worry for them if that happened, but whilst this squad struggled last season, many of them excelled to get the Blades there in the first place.

6. MILLWALL (40/1 BETFRED)

After three top-10 finishes across the last four seasons, I think now could be the time for Middlesbrough to return to the play-off scene once again.

Seventy-two-year-old Neil Warnock remains at the helm and he himself says every season is precious at this point in his career, and he certainly won’t be looking for Boro to just consolidate.

Last season was up and down for various reasons, as was the case for many clubs, but he’ll be much happier this time around.

Britt Assombalonga and Ashley Fletcher have moved on, which won’t really upset the manager, whilst Joe Lumley, Sammy Ameobi, Lee Peltier, Uche Ikpeazu and Matt Crooks are all solid squad options which improves the overall feel to the group.

The squad is already littered with Championship proven players such as Jonny Howson, Paddy McNair and Sam Morsy, whilst Marcus Tavernier’s return to fitness is further evidence there is real quality within this squad, even if it’s not huge in numbers, which ideally would need addressing.

Scott Malone has returned permanently, which is another no-brainer, whilst Benik Afobe has something of a point to prove in the English game and the striker position is one Millwall have perhaps needed assistance in for a little while now. He could be the man to fire 15-20 goals as he looks to rediscover his Wolves form from between 2014 and 2016.

The core of this squad remains in place, with Bartosz Bialkowski between the sticks, Jake Cooper at the back and Jed Wallace pulling the strings in attack. This foundation, backed with the new signings we’ve mentioned, and Rowett progressively building the team over a few years, now could really be the time to attack this league.

The Lions have finished eighth in two of the last four seasons, the second when Rowett was in charge from October onwards, which included a run of one defeat in 13.

With fans back, The Den should become a fortress again, and they had a top-half finish last season anyway, and I believe they will improve from then.

Scoring goals was their problem last term, but if they can retain their impressive clean sheet record then they’ll go close to a first Championship play-off appearance since 2002.

It is worth noting that last season Boro lost only one of their opening 11, and whilst that did include a number of draws, Warnock often likes to get his teams to peak at a certain point in the season. That didn’t materialise last season, but with him removing the unhappy faces from the group, he’ll believe he now has the players to deliver the goods.

We certainly can’t write Middlesbrough or Warnock off, but if they have a cause to focus their minds on then they could be really tough to deny. Their form at the end of last season tailed off when they drifted into mid-table, but things should be different this time around. They’re likely to be the sort of team no opposition will relish coming up against.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 41

7. CARDIFF CITY (18/1 UNIBET)

8. QPR (25/1 BET365) Mark Warburton is closing in on 100 matches in charge of QPR and during that time he has steadily moved the club to a level where the fans are starting to believe a Premier League return is more realistic.

I wouldn’t say there is an expectation that they will get there at the end of this season, but with Warburton heading into his third full season in charge, having finished 13th and then 9th in the first two, perhaps we’re now at the point in a ‘three-year plan’ when QPR have a real go at it.

A poor start to last season, where Rangers won only four league games before January, put Warburton under serious pressure, but a fine second half to the campaign ensured a top-10 finish and implanted a certain degree of expectation ahead of the upcoming season.

Charlie Austin, Sam Field and Jordy de Wijs were successful loanees who are now with the club

Mick and his assistant Terry Connor know the time of day, and it is only now when they can be truly judged. They’ve shown in their relatively short time in the job what can be done, but replicating that over a full season will be tough.

I expect Cardiff to compete, as they have too much quality not to. Whilst lots of teams have experienced big change over the summer, a bit of stability is never a bad thing, either.

Many are pointing towards the presence of Chris Hughton as one pretty big factor in the Reds’ prospects of having a good crack at the play-offs this time around. After all, he’s just had his first pre-season with the club at the start of his first full season, too, and he has a record of second, third and fourth across his previous full season’s managing at Championship level, so he certainly has history.

Hughton installed foundations last season, similar to that what we saw from his time at Brighton, but now they’ll really need to kick on.

But this has a fairly open Championship feel to it, and they’re clearly capable.

More new recruits are realistically needed, but getting João Carvalho back from a loan spell in Spain will feel like a new signing, and he is more than capable of being a danger at this level, along with another returning loanee, Brennan Johnson, whose future also remains up in the air.

That title-winning like form unsurprisingly tailed off towards the end of the campaign, but the upcoming season is one which could be promising for the Bluebirds. They’ve trimmed the squad with the likes of Joe Bennett, Junior Hoilett and Robert Glatzel moving on, whilst James Collins, Mark McGuiness, Ryan Wintle and Ryan Giles have come in to fill various holes.

It remains to be seen what role Lee Tomlin will have, but there is a bit of a concern in the fact McCarthy says he doesn’t expect any more new signings before the deadline. It means the young brigade could have more of a role to play, including Welsh international Rubin Colwill, so maybe they are more equipped than the squad list may suggest.

Along with rivals Derby, Forest have been in this division the longest period of time since the start of 2008/09. They’ve had two play-off appearances in that time, the last coming in 2011, however. They’ve threatened on occasions, most notably in 2019/20, but collapsed badly at the end of the campaign.

Ethan Horvath has boosted the goalkeeping position, but the future of defender Joe Worrall remains uncertain. They’ve had a big squad for many seasons now, so cutting that down significantly was something that always had to be done, and players like Sammy Ameobi, Yuri Ribeiro and Samba Sow are amongst those cut from the roster.

Mick McCarthy was seen as an uninspiring choice to be the Cardiff manager during the previous season, but a tremendous start to his reign, which saw the Bluebirds go unbeaten in 11, really increased prospects of an unlikely playoff appearance.

Several mainstays still remain in place such as Sean Morrison and Joe Ralls, whilst Kieffer Moore has been among the goals ever since joining the club a year ago. The foundations of this team are there for all to see, and it is again set to be a team that no opponent will really enjoy facing.

9. NOTTINGHAM FOREST (22/1)

Forest will be fine and should threaten the play-offs, but may again just fall short, unless more investment is made.

permanently, whilst Sam McCallum, Jimmy Dunne and Andre Dozzell strike as the types that Warburton could really excel with.

Only three senior players are aged in their 30s at the club, so this is a young, vibrant and energetic QPR that showed in patches last season what they’re capable of. For their sake, you just hope they don’t go on one of those long winless runs which so many teams at this level seem to experience, and ultimately leaves them playing catch-up.

Luke Amos is nearing a return from long-term injury, whilst Ilias Chair will now enter his third season at Championship level playing regular football. There really is a lot to like about QPR this time around, but maybe there do need that bit more experience to be classed as true contenders. Nevertheless, it’s an exciting time to be a Rangers supporter

42 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

12. READING (33/1 UNIBET Currently under a transfer embargo, it has certainly been a difficult off-season for everyone at Reading. Combined with the fact key players Omar Richards and Michael Olise have moved onto pastures new, the Royals have been unable to add fresh faces as they look to go one better having failed to reach the play-offs last season.

However, if you rewind 12 months, you’ll remember that Reading didn’t necessarily have the best pre-season then, considering the fact boss Veljko Paunović was quite a late and unexpected appointment, but that didn’t stop the Royals having a fine start to the campaign.

The issue now is that no longer are Reading the surprise package, and with several youngsters likely to be blooded into the group this time around, it promises to be an even bigger challenge to try and compete.

10. STOKE CITY (22/1 BETFAIR) Like so many in the Championship, Stoke are situated in that middle bracket of clubs who will look to really kick on and compete this season. Clearly they needed to undergo some kind of rebuild following relegation, and a few managers have been tasked with that job.

Michael O’Neill will now enter his second full season at the helm, and naturally expectations should start to increase. The Stoke fans expect some kind of promotion push, but that is easier said than done.

Sure, the Potters have some Championship warriors in their ranks in the form of Joe Allen, James Chester, Danny Batth, Sam Clucas and Steven Fletcher to name but some, whilst the summer signings of Ben Wilmot and Mario Vrančić also provide promotion experience to the group, but you just feel as though you want a bit more out of them.

That being said, having Tyrese Campbell back from injury will feel like a new signing, but there is big pressure on his young shoulders to deliver the goods and ease the load of veteran Fletcher.

Nathan Collins and John Obi Mikel are notable summer departures, whilst some other big earners have moved on, and the likes of James McClean are set to exit the club, too.

11. BRISTOL CITY (50/1 SKYBET)

All is not doom and gloom however. Getting a full season out of John Swift would be a huge boost, whilst stalwart Liam Moore has remained despite being constantly linked with a move away for a good few seasons now.

As a club, Bristol City have been known to give their manager’s a decent period of time in the dugout. Danny Wilson, Gary Johnson, Steve Cotterill and Lee Johnson all had at least three years in the gig this millennium, so the club now need to get stabalising under Nigel Pearson, who took over from Dean Holden, who only had just over 40 games in the role.

Pearson is quite possibly the no-nonsense character the Robins require if they’re to stand a chance of competing this time around. Since winning the League One title, City have finished between 11th and 19th in five of those six seasons, but Pearson has committed to a three-year contract at Ashton Gate, so clearly he believes something can be achieved.

Pearson has been most successful in management during his time at Leicester, and there is now plenty of Foxes influence at the club in the form of Danny Simpson, Matty James and Andy King, whilst Rob Atkinson has also made the move from Oxford.

City too have had to trim the squad, and a summer clear-out was needed, certainly.

Now getting the likes of Andi Weimann, Chris Martin, Joe Williams and Jay Dasilva back fit is key, so there is a bit of a fresh feel to the group compared to last season.

You just feel as though Stoke are constantly rebuilding to a degree, and it is not easy to be successful through those periods. They won’t go down, but they might go up if things go right. However, things haven’t been going right for Stoke for a while now, so they’ll need some luck.

Only relegated Rotherham lost more matches than Bristol City last season, so Pearson certainly has his work cut out, but I don’t believe he would have wanted to stick around if he didn’t really believe they could achieve something.

Fan optimism has grown as pre-season has progressed, with a good victory over Aston Villa standing out, but the lack of squad depth does concern me, and that may catch Stoke out.

The Robins will need some luck to get into the play-offs, but it can be done, I just fear the inconsistency and ‘streaky’ bug will catch them out at a time to derail any serious promotion push.

Clearly, there is a real lack of squad depth, so this mid-table finish is banking on them being able to bring in some signings. If they don’t, then slipping into the bottom half would be likely, although we’ve seen clubs with smaller squads excel in recent times, such as Swansea.

The club do have financial issues, which is why they’re under an embargo, so clearly everything is not so rosy, but Paunović has proved he can get this club to compete against all the odds.

Yakou Méïté is again injured long-term, even so defender Michael Morrison insists that the play-offs are the aim, especially with the likes of Andy Rinomhota and Josh Laurent having a full Championship campaign under their belts.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 43

13. SWANSEA CITY (22/1 UNIBET)

14. BARNSLEY (25/1 BETWAY) A memorable campaign for Barnsley ended with a little bit of a whimper in the play-off semi-final against Swansea, and once the final whistle ended after that second leg at the Liberty Stadium, Tykes fans were no doubt fearing exactly what has happened this summer.

Valérien Ismaël has moved on, to Championship rivals West Brom no less, whilst star player Alex Mowatt has joined him.

Daryl Dike also won’t be returning, but there is at least a new manager in the form of Markus Schopp, who is the latest Austrian connected person recruited to the Oakwell managerial gig.

No longer are Barnsley the surprise package, and it remains to be seen how Schopp will set up the Tykes. Their direct style of play served them well last season, but Schopp is more known for his progressive, passing through the thirds approach. It may work well, but all of that is up in the air at this stage.

Only a couple of weeks before the Championship season starts, Steve Cooper and Swansea decided to part ways. Whilst that isn’t ideal for the club, rather it happen now than a few weeks into the campaign.

It seemed pretty clear that Cooper felt he had taken the club as far as he could, and with star man Andre Ayew also departing, and key loanees Freddie Woodman, Marc Guéhi and Conor Hourihane returning to parent clubs, now is probably the time to make a change.

Cooper also clearly fancies a crack at a Premier League job, and I guess he’d rather move now than have a potentially struggling season at Swansea on his CV. I’m not sure what’s worse, the fact Cooper left, or that the club couldn’t convince John Eustace to leave his role as QPR assistant to become the new manager! That is now in the past, and Swansea ultimately need to look forward.

You kind of felt like last season was their moment to create the unexpected, and with only a few new faces so far, there is a big emphasis on the new manager to make the ultimate difference.

Obbi Oularé, recruited from Standard Liege, could be anything but will certainly need time to bed into new surroundings. Devante Cole is back after a stint in Scotland and he may feel as though he has a bit of a point to prove at this level.

I don’t picture Barnsley suddenly becoming relegation material, although it wouldn’t be a huge, huge shock if that did occur. This is still a club on the up and the changes that did occur over the summer won’t necessarily have been a shock to the club hierarchy either. You suspect they’ll improve as the season goes along.

As mentioned, Ayew has moved on, and he is practically irreplaceable at the Liberty Stadium. Joël Piroe has come in from PSV, whilst Liam Walsh jumps out as a definite Swansea type of player who could flourish, if staying injury-free.

New boss Russel Martin will certainly need to get more bodies in as again it is a squad which is lacking in depth.

That would be the case even further if rumours Matt Grimes is to leave are true.

Whilst even a top-half finish might appear unrealistic and certainly hopeful, I just feel Swansea may actually benefit from a managerial change and could surprise a few.

Getting a ‘trainer’ in is the most sensible move if they are indeed limited in what they can do in the transfer market. Some are predicting a relegation battle, but I’d expect the new man to eventually add quality recruits.

44 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

15. BLACKBURN ROVERS (28/1) Being put under a transfer embargo is always attached with a sense of panic and concern amongst the relevant supporters, and the Blackburn fanbase are no different.

Whilst the club no longer have such restrictions, Rovers haven’t really added anything to their squad compared to last season. This has ultimately affected preseason plans, as Tony Mowbray started preseason with a bit of a scratch squad having lost 11 faces from last season’s group.

The future of Adam Armstrong remains uncertain, whilst Bradley Dack is still recovering from a serious injury, but all is not bad. Harry Pickering is finally through the door, whilst a fully-fit Daniel Ayala is among the best at this level.

That being said, Rovers have finished 11th and 15th (twice) in their three seasons since promotion, so why change the habit of a lifetime!

Despite the goals of Armstrong over the years, they’ve never really been able to kick on and reach a point where they can compete. They were fifthhighest scorers in the Championship last season, but given the disruptions they’ve encountered, you can’t see them necessarily improving.

Of course, they’re capable, but they’re going to start the season a little out of sorts, and Mowbray started to come under some pressure last season, so he really needs a good start to get those doubters off his back.

Keeping Armstrong is paramount, otherwise they could drop further, but anything even remotely close to the top-half wouldn’t be a bad outcome considering pre-season.

There is still plenty of experience within this squad, whilst Ben Brereton could be set for a big season following his impact with Chile at Copa América, but clearly Mowbray needs to be able to work in the transfer market just to freshen the place up a bit.

16. PRESTON (50/1 BETWAY)

18. COVENTRY CITY (66/1)

Whilst Alex Neil is no longer at the helm at Deepdale anymore, there will still be a bit of Neil in the dugout in the form of his longtime companion Frankie McAvoy, who also worked with Neil at Hamilton and Norwich.

Before we focus on anything regarding Coventry on the pitch, it is perhaps right to point out that the club are indeed back at home from this point onwards.

The Coventry Building Society Arena is theirs once again, and no longer will they be groundsharing. Ironically, the Sky Blues actually had quite a good record at St Andrews last season, and it was on their travels where their troubles tended to be.

That being said, the 54-year-old is clear in saying that he is his own man, and wants to make the most of this opportunity, which was ultimately granted to h i m

Making their home a fortress is obvious, but if they could pick up more points on the road then they could gate-crash the top-half scene.

That is easier said than done however, and in their second consecutive campaign at this level, we’ll now really see what Coventry’s intentions are. Whilst they’d be happy to stay in the league, naturally you’ll want to have higher targets as well.

How high can they look? I touched upon the top-half and you’d have to say that’s the limit for them.

17. LUTON TOWN (50/1 BETWAY) One club that has been very, very busy in the transfer market a good while before the season kicks off is Luton. Nathan Jones has clearly been extremely keen to get bodies in as early as possible so the new faces can integrate into the team structure and ultimately get them playing as a unit. following a successful caretaker stint, and being a popular choice amongst the squad.

This resembles McAvoy’s first outright managerial role, so there is a bit of an unknown quantity about the Lilywhites going into the new campaign. That should suit them nicely, as for a few seasons under Neil there had been the pressure to really challenge for a play-off spot.

Those ambitions are likely to remain from within, but not necessarily from the outside as on paper it is practically the same squad as last season. Liam Lindsay and Sepp van den Berg are back again, whilst new recruit Izzy Brown is already out with a long-term injury.

Fringe players have been scratched though to make it a more intimate group, with a focus on introducing some talented youngsters, too.

This is no easy first job in management, but he has a decent foundation point to start at. You’d expect PNE to again entertain the mid-table region, and you just wonder if the inconsistency bug will once again bite them to a point it rules them out of any play-off push.

Another striker is still needed, but having Patrick Bauer fit after long-term injury will only boost the team defensively. This is no longer Alex Neil’s Preston, so a fresh start is maybe what’s required to get the best out of them once again.

Last season was perhaps beyond expectations for the club given their superb top-half finish, which was their highest effort since 2005/06. Despite that, Jones has been keen to add new players to the group and try to evolve this team whilst they’re on the up.

This is a sensible move as it gives them the best chance of continuing their success.

Mainstays such as James Collins and Matty Pearson have moved on, but adding experienced foes such as Henri Lansbury and Cameron Jerome, alongside solid characters in the form of Amari’i Bell, Reece Burke and Fred Onyedinma, and the X Factor quantities Admiral Muskwe and Carlos Mendes Gomes offers nice balance to this Luton roster.

The signing of Martyn Waghorn could be a bit of a game-changer given his record at this level, and his goals will be key to indeed avoiding the drop.

Whilst they are back home, it may take a bit of time to adjust fully, so don’t be surprised if Coventry started slowly. Having had a disrupted pre-season due to a COVID outbreak perhaps further outlines the likeliness of this playing out.

Manager Mark Robins however can get this team playing, and at this level as proved at times last season when taking points off 10 of the 12 top half teams.

There are certainly three worse teams than Coventry, so they should be fine, but a season of consolidation is perhaps their most realistic outcome, which could be a stepping stone to bigger and better things to come.

There really is a lot to like about Luton, but this is a lot of new faces, and for all they’ve had a long pre-season together, can we really expect Luton to produce back-to-back top half finishes in the Championship? I’d say it was unlikely but I’d be happy to be proved wrong.

Some may argue they look stronger than last season, and the league has an open feel to it, but they’re likely to be a little inconsistent and so a bottom-half, but comfortable, finish is anticipated.

Jones insists no more new signings are likely to come in, so this is Luton until January it would seem. Still, there is enough to excite Hatters supporters about what the future may hold.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 45

19. HUDDERSFIELD (66/1 BETFRED)

20. BIRMINGHAM (50/1 BETFRED) Lee Bowyer took the Birmingham job towards the end of last season with many certainly questioning his decision to do so. He was adamant that he could get the Blues out of trouble and that is exactly what he did.

Birmingham have flirted with relegation for a few seasons now, having finished no higher than 17th over the last five seasons. Bowyer is now hoping to look up the league as opposed to over their shoulders.

Managing to do that is easier said than done, although their form towards the end of last season offers some hope of improvement.

With a full Bowyer preseason under their belts, Blues will

Consistency will be key in terms of team selection and system, and avoiding injuries will help with that, and whilst Huddersfield do have the ability to make a much-improved campaign, there’s nothing screaming out that’ll necessarily happen.

Getting the fans back will be a nous and the John Smith’s Stadium should be bouncing, but another bottom-half finish is most likely.

The squad has at least been trimmed and some talented youngsters may get more opportunities, but you have to say many, many more teams have greater strength in depth in the league.

At their best, Huddersfield can beat anyone in the Championship on their day, but over a season I just fear they’ll lack that killer instinct in front of goal.

Darren Ferguson was the man who guided them into this league all those years ago, and his third spell in charge has so far proved profitable. Now the challenge is indeed to remain at this level, something they failed to do in 2010, but did achieve in 2012, only to be relegated the following year.

The philosophy of Peterborough hasn’t necessarily changed since. The plan is to recruit the best of the best in League One and League Two, and eventually sell them on for significant profit. Ivan Toney was the most recent of those, but the difference this time around is they’ve not cashed in on any of their star men.

Getting Jonson Clarke-Harris firing at this level will be paramount, and Posh will probably need to top-up their squad a little bit more either before this window or in the

Whilst they can point towards some longterm injuries to the likes of Harry Toffolo, Josh Koroma as well as others, the reality was Huddersfield fell short of expectations.

Nevertheless, the club will persist with the Spaniard at the helm, hoping that his methods will finally start to produce results.

The Terriers were ranked fourth in the Championship last season in terms of most possession, but if you behold the worst defensive record (71) then it really does cancel it out.

After what felt like an eternity away from the Championship, Peterborough made it eighth time lucky in their quest to return to this level after finishing as runners-up behind Hull.

The core of the promotion-winning roster remains in place, whilst eye-catching signings such as Josh Knight, Jorge Grant and the returning Jack Marriott has fuelled excitement around the club. They’ll certainly have a go and won’t be looking to make up the numbers, but clearly avoiding relegation has to be the aim. I fancy them to just about manage that, although it won’t be easy.

When C a r l o s Corberán was drafted in from Leeds to sparkle some Marcelo Bielsa gold-dust at the John Smith’s Stadium before last term, a season of high-octane excitement was on the cards. However, it did not materialise in such a manner.

There is every chance it could, and playing in this manner requires a certain type of player, and some shrewd recruitments have been added. Easing the load on Frazier Campbell had to be a priority, so bringing Jordan Rhodes back to the club will help, but it remains to be seen if he can recapture his former glories.

21. PETERBOROUGH (100/1)

b e optimistic, and bringing in Ryan Woods to bolster the midfield offers true Championship experience, and a scattering of Premier League young loanees will offer some exuberance, but do they really have enough to truly climb the table? I don’t think they do.

Bowyer joined the club at a time they the only way was up. Now starting on a level playing field it is a different kind of expectation and direction. There is definitely enough experience with the likes of George Friend, Lukas Jutkiewicz and Harlee Dean, but they’re lacking a bit of star quality.

Jordan Graham has the ability to fill that void, whilst Jérémie Bela also fits into that category, but arguably getting Scott Hogan back to his best will be the number one factor in determining Birmingham’s success.

Only Derby scored fewer goal in the Championship last season, and whilst they should have enough to again get out of trouble, I don’t see them threatening the tophalf of the standings. Bowyer got the Blues playing in a certain way to get out of trouble, and it paid off, but they can’t do that over a full season.

46 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

next, but Peterborough have a lot more ticks than some teams in the league.

Consider the fact they earned promotion when their pitch was in terrible shape last season, and a freshly laid turf should really showcase the best of Posh.

Sure, they’ll take some beatings along the way, but last season’s League One top scorers will cause a scare or two.

23. DERBY COUNTY (80/1)

24. HULL CITY (50/1 BETWAY)

It took a final day escape to prevent Derby being a League One club, and Wayne Rooney demanded that a repeat campaign won’t be tolerated. Well, an off-season of a transfer embargo and continuous takeover problems is far from ideal preparation for the upcoming campaign.

Star defender Matt Clarke is no longer at the club, and many new faces are required to give the Rams a realistic chance of avoiding another battle against relegation. As things stand, they’re weaker than last season, a team that were also the lowest scorers in the Championship. The big concern is that Rooney is still by far the best player at the football club.

If you cast your memories back, it was an almighty collapse in the second half of the season that saw Hull lost their place in the Championship two seasons ago.

After beating Sheffield Wednesday on New Year’s Day, the Tigers would only win one more match in that season, and also suffered an 8-0 loss at the hands of Wigan.

Many expected Grant McCann to lose his job that summer, but he remained, and he has rewarded that loyalty by winning the League One title to instantly regain their Championship berth.

The bookies don’t fancy the Rams’ chance either, and the mood amongst the supporters is certainly not one of excitement, despite being able to return to stadiums again.

22. BLACKPOOL (125/1 BOYLES) It was a season to remember for Blackpool in 2020/21, capped off by a day out at Wembley, which resulted in them winning the League One play-off final.

Whilst many are quick to point out that play-off winners are always up against it the following season from a preparation perspective alone, that won’t necessarily concern boss Neil Critchley.

The former Liverpool youth coach is wellrespective coach, and is now very much a top manager in his own right. His ability on the training ground, which he’ll back to gel new faces together quickly so they can hit the ground running will be key with the Tangerines trying to build on their momentum from last season. A COVID-ravaged pre-season hasn’t helped matters though.

In terms of tactics, don’t expect a big change.

Clean sheets were a huge part of what made the Seasiders so tough to beat (22 last season), but they’ll be challenged at this higher level, and playing their open brand of football may get some results, but over a season I just fear they’ll fall short.

Blackpool made the most of the loan market last season and no longer will they have Dan Ballard marshalling that defence which proved so tough to penetrate. Adding Richard Keogh to that backline is an experienced replacement, and that said experience will be vital, but on the whole you’re just wondering if they have enough of that within their squad.

Barely any of the new recruits are tried-andtested in the Championship, and on those cold nights in Stoke etc they’ll need to stand up and be counted. Jerry Yates also now needs to prove himself at this level having done so in Leagues One and Two, but he too is capable.

A valiant effort is expected, but they’ll likely fall just short.

Getting the best out of Tom Lawrence, proven at this level, will be important, and handing him the captain’s armband further highlights his significance to the team.

The club remains restricted in terms of who they can bring in and on a certain length of contract, with free agents set to be the way they’ll go.

This will be Derby’s 14th consecutive season playing in the Championship, but this promises to be one of their toughest seasons for many a year, and last season was pretty rough. It won’t take an ambitious betting man to back Derby for relegation, based on everything we know.

The fact Rooney played a part in injuring key man Jason Knight, now out for three months, in a recent training session kind of sums County up at the moment. Whilst you may argue things can only get better, things can’t be much worse right now, either, unless a takeover finally happens.

It was ironically a strong end to the campaign on this occasion which sealed the deal, winning 11 of their final 15 fixture to claim the crown.

Therefore, Hull enter the upcoming season in high spirits, believing they have something of a point to prove at this level.

McCann is largely set to rely upon the core of squad that got the job done last season, which in turn was the foundation of the team that was relegated in the first place. Have they learned their lessons? Only a handful of new faces have been added as things stand, and not necessarily names that will fill the fans full of excitement.

Then again, the club are battling against some big hitters in this league for transfers, so signing from the lower leagues and adding some Premier League loans is probably all the Tigers can really do given their transfer restrictions after their own embargo problems.

I just don’t see enough in the Humbersiders to really threaten this division. I don’t see them being cut adrift at the bottom, and if they can make the MKM Stadium a fortress then they’ll have a chance, but promoted clubs from League One have struggled at the next level in recent times and Hull will be no different.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 47

OUTRIGHT WINNER LEAGUE ONE Mark O’Haire @markohaire THE League One promotion race appears tighter than ever in 2021/22. We tasked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) with unearthing the best value ante-post plays in the Outright market.

Sunderland begin their fourth consecutive campaign at the top of the League One betting.

As short as 3/1 when dropping down to this level for 2018/19, the Black Cats were 7/2 the following year before going off at 7/1 last term. The Wearsiders succumbed in the play-offs in May but have retaken their position as ante-post favourites at the same 7/1 quote.

Continued market support for the Wearsiders was perhaps understandable after EFL fans watched the likes of Blackburn, Wigan and Rotherham enjoy immediate bounce back seasons. However, third-tier jollies rarely top the tree at this grade with Sheffield United (2016/17) and Wolves (2013/14) the only League One favs to dot up over the past 25 years.

Nevertheless, there are seeds of encouragement for Sunderland supporters elsewhere.

Nine of the past 12 title winners were priced up at single-figure odds, whilst 10 (50%) of the previous 20 favourites have been promoted – eight via the automatic promotion places.

Meanwhile, only one of the previous 14 jollies failed to finish finished inside the top-six.

The Black Cats undoubtedly remain one of League One’s big fish coming into 2021/22, and Kyril Louis-Dreyfus’ ownership has lifted some of the gloom around the Stadium of Light.

But Lee Johnson’s group appear short on bodies and lacking firepower following the loss of 31-goal striker Charlie Wyke this summer.

For me, Sunderland remain an untrustworthy proposition at 7/1 (Bet365) and the underachievers are best left alone. Therefore, my ante-post angles focus on three sides I suspect can challenge for top honours at respectable prices.

7/1 IPSWICH TOWN

BEST BETS IPSWICH TO WIN OUTRIGHT 7/1 ew SKYBET

ROTHERHAM TO WIN OUTRIGHT 14/1 ew SKYBET

OXFORD TO WIN OUTRIGHT 16/1 ew SKYBET

With half of the division chalked up at 20/1 or shorter, the market is anticipating an ultracompetitive scrap at the top end of the table. But Ipswich who are vying for jointfavouritism with Sunderland - must be considered major players following a spectacular summer of spending under new ownership.

in defence, Scott Fraser is a stylish schemer in midfield from MK Dons, and Rakeem Harper and Lee Evans provide all-round ability in the middle of the park.

Meanwhile, Conor Chaplin is the standout in a supremely stocked final-third.

The US consortium led by Brett Johnson and CEO Mark Ashton have sanctioned a host of eye-catching deals in a major overhaul instigated by head coach Paul Cook. Well over a dozen players were culled, whilst high-class has been recruited.

Should all the new faces gel quickly, the Tractor Boys could quite conceivably piss this league.

Nevertheless, I’m happy to take the plunge on Ipswich despite a recent cut in price.

Cook has pedigree for promotion, and with a promise of even more incomings across the coming weeks, it’s easy to envisage the Suffolk side as front-runners if all goes to plan.

Václav Hladký is a future Championship goalkeeper, George Edmundson’s addition was a real coup from Rangers

48 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

The Tractor Boys have undergone a major facelift and a slow start is a possible concern. Meanwhile, Cook will be working with a brand-new backroom staff and is without his trusted lieutenant Leam Richardson (now Wigan boss); again, the potential is there for Town to require a little more time to transition into a titlewinning behemoth.

For me, the Tractor Boys should be clear market leaders and the four paid places from SkyBet’s each-way terms gives us a little safety net should Town take time to find their stride and miss out on top-spot.

14/1 ROTHERHAM UNITED I’m not sure many had Hull pencilled in as possible League One champions in 2020/21 following a traumatic relegation from the Championship.

Yet the Tigers’ title triumph extended an intriguing streak of demoted clubs making an immediate return to the second-tier, with the Humbersiders the 10th team in the past 12 completed seasons to bounce straight back, seven (58%) of which tabled top honours.

With Sheffield Wednesday operating under a transfer embargo and suspended points penalty, the Owls are easily dismissed as 10/1 (Bet365) shots.

Meanwhile, Wycombe will feel bullish about their capacity to upset the odds again following a commendable effort in their first-ever secondtier campaign, although 20/1 (Bet365) looks about right.

That leaves Rotherham as intriguing 14/1 (SkyBet) fancies. The Millers’ have yo-yoed between the Championship and League One in four years under Paul Warne’s watch and there’s enough evidence to suggest a repeat could be on the cards for 2021/22.

The South Yorkshire side ranked 15th in terms of Expected Points (xP) last term and

16/1 OXFORD UTD

probably would have consolidated in the second-tier had COVID not wreaked havoc with the club’s fixture schedule. Rotherham concluded the campaign by squeezing 10 games in to just 28 days and the Millers players understandably struggled with the impossible workload.

The margins were incredibly tight too – 18 of United’s 26 league losses arrived by a solitary strike, and Warne’s troops boasted the best goal difference amongst the bottom-eight, again highlighting their competitive nature despite the afflicting issues.

Profligate finishing and sloppy defensive e r r o r s played their part but League One will be more forgiving.

L o s i n g Matt Crooks and Matt Olosunde are obvious blows, but otherwise Rotherham have kept the bulk of their squad together with Freddie Ladapo and Michael Smith leading the line. Shane Ferguson adds versatility to the group and Warne’s demands for incessant intensity, stamina and aggression marks the Millers out as awkward opponents.

Of those that have dropped down, Rotherham look best-equipped for a speedy return and the 14/1 with SkyBet also gives us four each-way places to support.

18 of United’s 26 league losses arrived by a solitary strike, and Warne’s troops boasted the best goal difference amongst the bottom-eight

Having secured consecutive top-six finishes, Oxford might well be ready to make a more significant assault on League One’s top-four this term.

The Yellows were hamstrung by an exceptionally poor start in 2019/20 – languishing 19th in mid-December – as a play-off hangover and short preseason turnaround impacted upon preparation.

Nevertheless, United soon found their stride with 18 regular season victories in their final 30 fixtures. Robinson’s attack-minded squad averaged 2.03 goals per-game over the final-third of the campaign, and with almost all key offensive components still in situ, that momentum, consistency, and continuity will lay the foundation to mount another promotion challenge.

Centre-back Rob Atkinson will be hard to replace but Jordan Thorniley excelled at Blackpool last term and bolsters the centre-half options, and Steve Seddon’s arrival offsets the loss of left-back Josh Ruffels.

Clearly more recruitment is required across the backline and the club has promised new additions... Still, the spine of the squad appears strong.

Robinson’s blessed by two very capable goalkeepers, and Gavin Whyte, Marcus McGuane, Billy Bodin, Nathan Holland and Ryan Williams have been brought in to fill out the midfield and forward areas. Elsewhere, mainstays Cameron Brannagan, Alex Gorin, James Henry and Matt Taylor all still reside at the Kassam Stadium, suggesting Yellows aren’t far away.

Of course, Oxford must improve their output against the league’s elite. During 2020/21, the U’s garnered a flat-track bully tag having amassed only four triumphs in 23 against top-half teams, compared to 18 victories from 24 tussles with the lesser lights. If Robinson can engineer a gritter side to Yellows, whilst maintaining the team’s expressive and eye-catching final-third qualities, the balance could be just right for a concerted tilt at the top.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 49

RELEGATION LEAGUE ONE

Mark O’Haire @MarkOHaire

With four clubs suffering League One demotion, finding a side to take the drop should in-theory be easier than elsewhere in the Football League. However, that one extra relegation place is reflected in the ante-post markets with pre-season prices suffering.

Looking back at last season, and unusually for League One, two promoted clubs (Swindon and Northampton) fell flat on their arrival in the third-tier and bounced immediately back down. Newcomers to this level have tended to compete reasonably well with all four promoted teams consolidating in the division in nine (43%) campaigns this century.

That’s positive news for the likes of Cheltenham, Cambridge, Bolton and Morecambe but it’s no surprise to see the latter priced up as jollies for the drop. The perennial League Two relegation favourites pulled off a remarkable fairytale feat to seal play-off final success at Wembley and have been forced into a rebuild following the departure of boss Derek Adams.

Numerous key players have followed Adams out the exit door and with half of the last 10 ante-post relegation favourites dropping out of the division, it’s perhaps understandable that many are blindly writing the Shrimps off before a ball has been kicked.

However, incoming manager Stephen Robinson has performed his own minor miracles with Motherwell and appears to have recruited smartly. Morecambe certainly have the capacity to compete, and despite topping the relegation race, the market makes the League One debutants odds-against (6/5 Boylesports) for the drop - Rochdale were 8/11 last term.

I’ve opted to ignore Morecambe from my portfolio and instead I’ve sourced four alternative candidates at appealing prices that I feel represent value in the bottom-four running.

LEAGUE ONE

RELEGATION

CAMBRIDGE TO BE RELEGATED Cambridge are playing third-tier football for the first time since 2002 after rookie boss Mark Bonner steered his boyhood club to a memorable promotion in his first full season in charge. The U’s were a well-coached team that relied upon energy, selfless hard-work, plus the ingenuity of veteran Wes Hoolahan, and clinical conversion of striker Paul Mullin.

Priced up as 45/1 outsiders, Bonner eked everything out of his small squad to inspire an unexpected second-placed finish. It was an incredible achievement considering the modest playing budget at The Abbey yet dissenters (including yours truly), plus data boffins, felt the Amber and Black outfit overperformed en-route to promotion.

Expected Points (xP) rankings suggested Cambridge collected 13 points more than their performances warranted and in ratio terms, the U’s were rated no higher than 10th when viewing rankings for a range of metrics, including Expected Goals (xG), xG from open play, shots, on-target efforts and shots attempted from inside the opposition penalty box.

Mullin was a major part in the team’s aboveaverage achievements - scoring 34 goals across all competitions and responsible for 44% of United’s goal tally last term – so his decision to drop down to non-league looks to have left Cambridge short on final-third quality. Meanwhile, Hoolahan is 39 now and is unable to feature in midweek matches.

Rampaging right-back Kyle Knoyle and safe-hands goalkeeper Callum Burton are no longer about. Jensen Weir, Sam Smith, Shilow Tracey and James Brophy are a collection of the new recruits but it’s difficult to see the current crop successfully making the stepup and 6/4 (SkyBet) quotes on a return to League Two are reasonable.

WIMBLEDON TO BE RELEGATED I had no intention of adding Wimbledon to my ante-post relegation portfolio yet in pure betting terms, I just can’t ignore the 11/4 (SkyBet) on the Dons being demoted.

In pure percentage terms, the odds suggest Mark Robinson’s men have less than a 27% chance of being in the bottom-four come May. Flip it around the other way, and we’re saying the Wombles boast a 73% chance of remaining in League One, and that feels like an overestimation of Wimbledon’s prospects in 2021/22.

But truth be told, Wimbledon have finished an average of three points above the drop-zone over the past four campaigns and routinely been involved in the battle for survival. That previous experience could well come in handy come April but any sign of stagnation, or potential regression, could come at a cost in what appears to be a very competitive renewal.

The Dons have continually overachieved on a budget dwarfed by their divisional rivals and this time around the Londoners come into the campaign without reliable top goalscorer Joe Piggott (47 league goals in 137 Wimbledon appearances since January 2018). His absence in attack could be the catalyst for a difficult season and 11/4 is just simply too big to ignore.

PLYMOUTH TO BE RELEGATED Plymouth were League One’s worst performing club over the final 17 fixtures, collecting a paltry 11 points, sliding to 11 defeats and accumulating a rotten -23 goal difference. Across the full campaign, Argyle owned the division’s worst road record outside of the bottom-four and featured inside the bottom-eight for Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) ratio.

Considering the Greens arrived back at this level full of enthusiasm, it’s fair to see the Devon giants underperformed with their final 18th-placed position in-line with disappointing performances. Having shipped the secondmost goals, head coach Ryan Lowe has looked to address his team’s failing this summer with an influx of backline operators.

With respected centre-half Will Aimson off to Bolton, James Wilson joins after claiming Ipswich’s Player of the Year crown, fellow centre-half Dan Scarr impressed at Walsall, whilst right-back James Bolton and defensive midfielder Jordan Houghton are amongst the new faces signed to try and plug last season’s worrying gaps and oversee an immediate reboot.

The Pilgrims finished only six points above the drop-zone and there’s no guarantee the defensive overhaul will pay dividends, particularly with attention turning towards Lowe’s own tactical ability to sufficiently set-up and organise his side against stronger suits.

There is of course a wave of positivity sweeping through Wombles’ supporters.

With focus often on Plymouth’s ability in possession, pressure also remains on the frontline to carry the can. Luke Jephcott enjoyed a memorable breakout season, although his longevity remains questionable, whilst Ryan Hardie, Danny Mayor, George Cooper, Niall Ennis are capable if not prolific.

Ryan Broom’s arrival at least adds a touch of class.

An emotional return to Plough Lane could provide the springboard for further consolidation and Robinson’s 21-game stint in charge from January onwards also hinted at a versatile head coach who can guide an undervalued group to calmer waters.

Still, Argyle’s squad appears thin on the ground, and with progression dubious, the prospect of a campaign fighting for survival cannot be ruled out. With that in mind, the 7/2 (Bet365) for a bottom-four finish is worthy of an interest.

In fact, rival operators are offering just 6/4 on the Dons’ six-year stay in the third-tier coming to a close – that’s a significant 13% difference compared to the available 11/4 we’re recommending to take.

FLEETWOOD TO BE RELEGATED Fleetwood’s ambitious rise to the third-tier was characterised by flashy spending and smart managerial appointments. However, generous owner Andy Pilley has opted for financial prudence over the past 12 months and appears to be cutting his cloth accordingly after several big spending seasons. The result is underwhelming, and potentially quite costly.

The Cod Army have regressed, and in a league that looks more competitive than ever, Town fans have every right to be concerned about the season ahead.

Fleetwood’s squad lacks quality, is short on strength in-depth and there could be an overreliance on youngsters to fill the void.

High-earning seniors have been moved on, a huge amount of last season’s playing minutes are no longer at Highbury and manager Simon Grayson has a tough task steadying the ship with a collection of uninspiring signings.

It’s Grayson’s M.O to be functional rather than flashy, so we can expect the Lancashire outfit to be rugged, physical and direct. The onus will be on Callum Morton and Ryan Edmundson to produce the final-third goods with Ched Evans and Paddy Madden no longer about, but the jury is most definitely out on the new recruits delivering instant success.

Ultimately, this is a club trending downwards and the 4/1 (Boylesports) on demotion was a very eye-catching offering considering four sides will drop out of the division.

BEST BETS CAMBRIDGE TO BE RELEGATED 6/4 SKYBET WIMBLEDON TO BE RELEGATED 11/4 SKYBET PLYMOUTH TO BE RELEGATED 7/2 BET365 PLYMOUTH TO BE RELEGATED 4/1 BOYLESPORTS

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 51

TOP GOALSCORER LEAGUE ONE

16/1 e/w

MATT TAYLOR (16/1 BETFRED) Oxford reached the League One play-offs for the second successive season last time out but were deservedly beaten by eventual winners Blackpool in the semi-final. Despite the obvious disappointment, the consistency of their efforts is commendable under Karl Robinson.

Polarising Robinson might not be everyone’s cup of tea but he has always produced sides that play attractive and attacking football, and that’s always interesting when looking at goals-based punts when following the Yellows.

Only automatically promoted Peterborough and Hull scored more than the U’s last year, and with additions in the way of Nathan Holland, Billy Bodin, Steve Seddon and a recall for the talented Marcus McGuane, there should be more ammunition for serial EFL hot-shot Matty Taylor.

Last season saw the League One top goalscorer eclipse the 30-goal mark with Jonson Clarke-Harris becoming the second Peterborough striker in succession to win the award after Ivan Toney topped the tree a year prior.

With Posh winning promotion to the Championship, leading marksman must now come from a different team, and given the highly competitive collection of clubs residing in the third-tier this term, there are plenty of runners and riders.

MK Dons have seen three strikers arrive in Troy Parrott, Max Watters and Mo Eisa, Charlie Wyke has made the switch to Wigan, Will Grigg is likely to carry the goalscoring candle for favourites Sunderland, whilst Ipswich have brought in a raft of forward players including Macauley Bonne and Joe Piggott.

It promises to be a fantastic division to follow, and I can’t wait for it to start.

Here I’ve selected three that I think can outperform their odds for a variety of reasons…

Taylor expressed his delight at teaming back up with Bodin from their Bristol Rovers days. The 31-year-old took Top Goalscorer honours during a memorable season for Gas fans, a campaign in which a last-minute winner on final day saw the Pirates grasp an automatic promotion place.

Even last year, the boyhood Oxford supporter bagged 19 goals, only missing out on place returns by a single strike. Taylor’s not really someone who scores a wide variety of goals but his poaching ability is first class when in the 18-yard box.

In fact, all of his goals last term were inside the box, with half arriving from inside the six-yard box. That highlights his pedigree as a serial fox in the box, benefitting from high Expected Goals (xG) figures, another major benefit when betting in this market.

The way Robinson likes to play, with energy and players overlapping and cutting the ball across, is music to the ears of Taylor. Dare I say, it’s Manchester City-esque?

Only Sunderland averaged a higher xG per-game than Oxford (1.73) in 2020/21, suggesting the Yellows’ process of getting the ball into the box is on-point and I’m confident Taylor can be bang up there once again this term.

One bookmaker goes single figures for Taylor but Betfred have stuck their neck on the line with an attractive 16/1 for the former Bristol Rovers man to chime the Top Goalscorer gong - looking at the condensed top of the market, it’s he who looks the best value.

52 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

50/1 e/w

40/1 e/w

Tom Love @TomLove_18

VADAINE OLIVER (50/1 ew) Not too much is expected of Gillingham this season, but if they are to upset the applecart then the goals and presence of Vadaine Oliver will no doubt be pivotal.

Oliver notched a healthy 17 goals last season, contributing over a quarter of the whole output from the Kent club.

Colourful manager Steve Evans has always liked to play with a physical presence up top, whether that be John Akinde, Tyrone Barnett, Alex Revell or Kane Hemmings in his time in the EFL. With Oliver standing at 6 ft 2 in, he offers an obvious aerial threat (only Charlton duo Jayden Stockley and Macauley Bonne averaged more headers pergame last season), but the percentages of headers he wins is unrivalled in the league. The 29-year-old is the only player to average over 10 aerial duels per-game, giving him an edge on defenders.

It’s the bravery and willingness to make anything in and around the six-yard box his own that stands out the most. You know if the ball is looping in the air, Oliver will even beat the keeper to it with his impressive leap and ability to get over players.

He’s not just a heading merchant though, his rangy structure means that, despite not looking particularly fast, he can outpace opponents in one-on-one situations, and his reactions to blocked or saved shots are sharper than most.

Evans will love the fact that League One is stacked with big-name teams and big-name managers, he will happily play the pantomime villain and relish any underdog tag. It could make this Gills side an interesting one to follow when priced up generously.

Gillingham won’t win prizes for aesthetics but their direct style will hurt teams, opposition outfits won’t enjoy playing against the big man, and at 50/1 he has to be an each-way bet.

STEPHEN HUMPHRYS (40/1 ew) Leam Richardson worked wonders last season to salvage what could’ve been a disastrous season for Wigan.

Financially, former ownership was badly affected by COVID and other factors meaning the Latics went into administration towards the end of the Paul Cook reign. A 12-point deduction ultimately saw the Lancashire club relegated to the third-tier and genuine worries that another demotion could be on the cards.

However, Richardson (who stayed on at the club after being trusty assistant to Cook) managed to squeeze everything out of a group that was lacking experience and any kind of structure. Little was available to him in terms of transfers and the condensed schedule couldn’t have helped matters. But the former Accrington ace’s calm approach and resourcefulness were seriously impressive.

Richardson’s now reaped the rewards of new ownership though as money has been injected back into the club, and there’s been a few statement signings this summer, such as Charlie Wyke, Max Power, Tom Naylor and dynamic attacker Stephen Humphrys.

Humprhrys has rarely enjoyed an uninterrupted season – 31 league appearances for Southend a couple of years ago was his best recent return but he has still managed to notch double figures in his last two campaigns, which is decent going.

Now 23, the versatile forward has notched tallies of 12 and 10 goals in struggling sides - Southend and Rochdale – since 2019/20. So the prospect of playing in a quality side (should he stay fit) will scare divisional rivals.

Humphrys caused waves on the Wigan timeline the other week with a stunning free-kick against Fylde, an additional quality the Fulham youth product has in

TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has been tasked with tackling the ante-post Top Goalscorer market ahead of the 2021/22 League One season. Here are his three favourite fancies. his repertoire. With his name firmly in the set-pieces ring, and playing alongside a strong foil in Wyke, he should score an array of goals.

Even if Richardson opts for a 4-3-3 with one of Callum Lang or Gavin Massey on the right and Humphrys on the left, I still think he will be a major threat.

Having watched extensive highlights of, not only his goals but his style of play in build up, you can tell he’s just one of those players who loves to express themselves, regularly picking the ball up centrally or on the left and driving at his opponents before getting a powerful shot off, teeing up a teammate or winning a free kick.

Humphrys doesn’t have a set type of goal but his sheer physicality and explosiveness puts defenders firmly on the back foot. He will be one of the players to watch in League One this season, trust me.

Many firms are offering between 20/1 and 25/1 on the local lad to finish as Top Goalscorer, however Bet365 are dangling a tempting 40/1, and that’s just too big to ignore for a side I expect to go well.

BEST BETS MATT TAYLOR TOP SCORER 16/1 ew BETFRED

VADAINE OLIVER TOP SCORER 50/1 ew BET365

STEPHEN HUMPHRYS TOP SCORER 40/1 ew BET365

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 53

LEAGUE ONE

SPECIALS Portsmouth should be a team that can navigate a fairly consistent campaign and end in the play-off picture at the very least.

Most ardent EFL followers and fellow bosses alike will have plenty of respect in the bank for the Cowley brothers for their meticulous approach to coaching and management.

Nicky and Danny complement each other perfectly and the brothers will have been frustrated at being unable to nail down a longer stint at Huddersfield after leaving Lincoln. But last year gave the pair a good idea of what’s needed at current club Portsmouth.

With a full summer of recruitment under their belts, and having the ability to make slight adjustments to their squad, is a huge benefit and they could have sneaked a gem in Gassam Ahadme, who shone in pre-season and has joined on-loan from Norwich.

John Marquis was used to his full potential when at Doncaster and the management team should have had enough time now to figure out how to maximise his output in the final-third.

The Pompey backline is one full of league experience with the likes of Kieron Freeman, Sean Raggett, Clark Robertson, Paul Downing and Lee Brown. A solid base, where the defenders are there to defend, is a good starting point for how the Cowley’s like to operate.

A double pivot of Shaun Williams and Ryan Tunnicliffe adds even more solidarity to the middle of the park and the twosome know each other well from their time at Millwall together, and so should gel quickly.

Wingers Ronan Curtis and Marcus Harness can cause plenty of headaches for opposition defences and boast the ability to interchange with the likes of Michael Jacobs. Curtis is not just a chief creator, but also a goal threat,

54 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Tom Love @TomLove_18

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has scoured the dozens of League One specials markets and shares his best bets ahead of the 2021/22 big kick-off.

and loves popping up at the back stick from crosses on the opposite side.

It’s a very strong looking League One and the dynamic Cowley duo aren’t short of quality rival dugout operators this season but with a couple more additions - which are expected in the next few weeks – Portsmouth should be a team that can navigate a fairly consistent campaign and end in the play-off picture at the very least.

Quotes of 13/8 (SkyBet) on Pompey claiming a top-six berth are much bigger than most firms, who are closer to even-money with one even going odds-on.

BEST BETS PORTSMOUTH TO FINISH IN THE TOP-SIX 13/8 SKYBET

TAKE A GOAL-DON SHOT There’s been a lot of focus on the summer antics at Stadium MK, with anticipation building ahead of the new campaign, and I’m party to the love in around MK Dons.

Swansea have ended weeks of speculation by snapping up manager Russell Martin, despite the gaffer only undertaking his first full season in management last term. And in all honesty, the in-demand boss didn’t pull up too many trees throughout 2020/21.

Still, I liked Martin’s ideals. He was focussed on producing good, quality football and stays loyal to his principles and identity.

Under his stewardship, MK have been an attractive, aesthetically-pleasing side with a long-term vision. The Buckinghamshire boys are already enjoying an upward trajectory with an effective process, and whilst the new appointment is pivotal, I’ve faith they’ll make a similar smart option.

Having consolidated the club and proven an ability to put the Dons back in the right direction,

owner Pete Winkelman has since sanctioned a series of statement singings in order to take MK to the next level. Eye-catching additions, particularly at the top of the pitch could prove decisive as the club aims to make his possession-game really count.

Incredibly, last season only Barcelona and Manchester City averaged more possession per-game in Europe than MK Dons. Their patient build-up is designed to knacker teams who press, with players come short, aiming to drag their opposite number with them to free up space for the ball to be played into.

It can be tedious at times, and did have plenty of teething problems early on with centre halves caught out close to their own box, but when it does work it’s a thing of joy. A 56-pass move that ended with a goal against Gillingham last term was a great example.

Whereas last season, MK had experience b u t lacked in terms of pace or movement up front with Will Grigg and Cameron Jerome, their options are much more plentiful now and a trio of strikers who all could stake a claim to be Top Goalscorer have come through the door.

Mo Eisa joins on a permanent deal from Peterborough, whereas the loan market has been used to bring Max Watters (Cardiff) and Troy Parrott (Spurs) to the club. It’s hard to see all three starting simultaneously, but the high level of

competition should increase standards.

Arguably one of the most exciting buys of the window was Scott Twine, coming in from Swindon. Twine, who shone on-loan at Newport at the start of last term, is a man for the spectacular with few coming close to his long range shooting, even in the Championship.

The 22-year-old’s progressive passing ability is an underrated facet of his game though and Twine could rack up the assists as he looks to get between the lines, turn sharply and put through one of the strikers. And if your defenders back off, you’d put money on him to threaten the net himself…

Even behind the star-studded frontline you have a really nice blend of midfielders with Matt O’Riley, David Kasumu, Ethan Robson, Josh McEachran and Hiram Boateng as options.

Norwich youngster Josh Martin is one of the loans where his gaffer and namesake has utilised his strong contacts to make the deal happen, he’s a flying full-back who is well thought of at Carrow Road. Meanwhile, Harry Darling was one of the classiest centre-halves in the league last season and has kicked on since arriving from Cambridge.

MK Dons could probably do with one more centre-half, but it’s going forward where I expect this group to really turn it on if they gel. The 16/1 (SkyBet) quote on the Dons being the Highest Scoring Team should give us a good run for our money with the players at their disposal.

BEST BETS MK DONS TO BE HIGHEST SCORING TEAM 16/1 SKYBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 55

STATS & TRENDS LEAGUE ONE WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new League One campaign.

Relegated Clubs Relegated clubs have won League One in 7/21 seasons (33%) this century.

League Winners

Average finishing position of a relegated club – 10th.

Average price – 18/1.

TH

11

Average position finished year previously – 11th.

10 (48%) of the past 21 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.

9 (69%) of the past 13 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.

7 (33%) of the past 21 League One title winners had just been relegated from the Championship.

7

6 (29%) of the past 21 League One title winners were priced at 20/1 or larger 3 (14%) of the past 21 League One title winners had just been promoted from League Two.

In 11 (85%) of the last 13 seasons a relegated club has won promotion and bounced straight back to the Championship.

11

17/63 (27%) clubs have won promotion straight back to the Championship with 24 (38%) finishing in the top-six, 38 (60%) in the top-half. Meanwhile, 25 (40%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 7 (11%) suffered back-to-back relegation.

Top 3 Finishers Average price – 19/1.

Average position finished year previously – 9th – 12 (19%) had failed in the play-offs the year previously, 12 (19%) were relegated clubs and 8 (13%) had just been promoted the year previous.

12 (57%) OF THE PAST 21 SEASONS HAS SEEN A SIDE PRICED UP AT 20/1 OR LARGER FINISH IN THE TOP THREE.

1 (5%) OF THE PAST 21 LEAGUE WINNERS FAILED IN THE PLAY-OFFS THE YEAR PREVIOUS.

11

Any Other Business

7 (33%) of the past 121 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.

The top-scoring (or joint-top) side in League One has been crowned champions in 11/21 (52%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 16 (76%) occasions (average finish 2nd).

11

THE LOWEST (OR JOINTLOWEST) SCORING SIDE IN LEAGUE ONE HAS BEEN RELEGATED IN 14/21 (67%) SEASONS THIS CENTURY, FINISHING ROCK-BOTTOM ON 7 (33%) OCCASIONS (AVERAGE FINISH 22ND).

PROMOted Clubs

TH

15

Average finishing position of a promoted club – 13th.

Favourites

TH

4

Average finishing position – 4th.

Average price of the favourites – 5/1 – Sunderland are 7/1 this season.

Sheffield United (2016/17) and Wolves (2013/14) are the only winning favourites this century – an 10% title win rate in that sample – and only winning favourites since 1994.

17 (81%) of the past 21 favourites this century have finished in the top-six.

17

10 (48%) of the past 21 favourites this century have promoted.

been

8 (38%) OF THE PAST 21 FAVOURITES THIS CENTURY HAVE WON AUTOMATIC PROMOTION.

4

4 (19%) of the past 21 favourites this century have finished outside the top-six but zero have finished in the bottom-half.

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns

TH

9

The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 10th.

6 (29%) of the 21 play-off final losers have bounced back to win promotion the following season – 10 (48%) registered top-six finishes and 14 (67%) concluded in the top-half.

However, 7 (33%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half with 3 (14%) relegated.

19

All four promoted clubs have survived in 9 (43%) of the 21 seasons this century.

THE AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION OF A SIDE INVOLVED IN AN UNSUCCESSFUL PLAY-OFF CAMPAIGN IS 9TH.

The side with the worst defence in League One has been relegated in 17/21 (81%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 5 (24%) occasions (average finish 22nd).

8 (10%) promoted clubs have won promotion again, 16 (19%) have finished in the top-six with 39 (47%) tabling tophalf finishes. Alternatively, 44 (53%) concluded their campaign in the bottomhalf with 13 (16%) suffering immediate demotion.

13 (21%) teams involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign have bounced back to win promotion this century – 26 (41%) tabling another topsix finish and 43 (68%) registering a tophalf finish. However, 20 (32%) ended in the bottom-half with 6 (10%) relegated.

The best defence (or jointbest) in League One has been crowned champions in 12/21 (57%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 19/21 (90%) seasons (average finish 2nd)

Only 13/83 (16%) promoted clubs have suffered immediate relegation.

56 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

NEW SEASON OFFER

WLBGOLD

JOIN US FOR THE SEASON GET 12 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF 9

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

HOW THEY’LL FINISH LEAGUE ONE James Potter @thebettingdesk

1. IPSWICH TOWN (7/1 Bet365)

FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert James Potter (@thebettingdesk) delivers his team-byteam verdicts ahead of the 2020/21 campaign, with a 1-24 rundown covering each club in-depth ahead of the new season.

2. ROTHERHAM (14/1 BET365)

As I am writing this, MK Dons manager Russell Martin has just been confirmed as the new Swansea manager and this may make this write-up look a little foolish come May but I have been very sweet on the Dons all summer with their recruitment making a real splash.

Ipswich could walk the league if things click early.

Paul Cook delivered a series of home truths to Tractor Boys supporters soon after taking charge last term. The brash Liverpudlian quashed any talk of a play-off challenge and criticised the Blues squad for their lack of desire, fitness and quality, suggesting the majority would never play for the club again.

The loss of Scott Fraser for close to £1m has enabled MK to bring in some real quality that has improved the squad. The front three of Troy Parrott, who impressed in a poor attacking Ipswich side last season, Max Watters on-loan after his goalscoring exploits for Crawley, plus Mo Eisa (who had a terrific scoring record for Cheltenham) promises plenty.

This drastic action was made possible after controversial previous owner Marcus Evans sold the club to a US consortium led by Brett Johnson. The new regime quickly installed Mark Ashton as CEO, and the new project began taking shape.

Ashton has been CEO since June and so far, has signed a new player, on average, every four days. Johnson and Ashton informed fans they would only sanction deals for players who wanted to be at the club, understood where the team were heading and had the right attitude.

There would be no marquee signings, or big names happy to pick up a wage.

So in terms of business, goalkeeper Václav Hladký takes over the number one jersey after 22 clean sheets with Salford. The defence still needs work, but the signing of George Edmundson from Rangers demonstrates the type of player Cook wants. And in midfield the capture of Scott Fraser, could be one of the signings of the season with 38 goal involvements over the last two campaigns.

Lee Evans and Rakeem Harper will add strength and aggression to the midfield with Wes Burns, who was one of the standout performers for Fleetwood last term, and Conor Chaplin, who started 34 games for Barnsley as the Tykes finished in the Championship play-offs, offers pace out wide.

Up top, Ipswich have three excellent strikers at this level. James Norwood has had an injury hit spell in Suffolk, but now appears to be fit and his hard-working style will be a great foil for Joe Pigott, signed from Wimbledon having scored 47 goals in 137 games. Macauley Bonne on-loan from QPR is another option up top.

3. MK DONS (20/1 BETFAIR)

Paul Warne has an excellent record of promotion from League One as Rotherham seem to be the yo-yo club of recent years.

Two promotions and two relegations makeup the CV of the Millers’ boss and I think the trend can extend with a top-two finish well within the reach of the South Yorkshire outfit.

Eisa and Watters should thrive in a side that created chances equating to 1.46 xG last season. In fact, I had Dons 10th on xP defensively they were sound with the fifthfewest shots on-target conceded and thirdlowest attempts allowed.

In my view, Rotherham were a little unlucky to be relegated last season. United ended up 17th on xP -well ahead of the bottom-three – but the Millers were unfortunately hit hard

by COVID and ended up with a long fixture backlog, concluding the campaign by playing three times a week.

The loss of Matt Crooks to Middlesbrough is a blow, but the Reds have kept the majority of their squad together whilst adding Joshua Chapman and Shane Ferguson.

I like how Rotherham set-up - they attack with real intensity, are awful to play against, very fit and most importantly, they are hard to beat.

There is no doubt the league is tougher this season, but Warne’s hasn’t changed much since their promotion campaign, and whist other sides in the mix are going through massive overhauls, financial issues or changes of manager, Rotherham are consistent enough to suggest they’ll make a major play at the top of the table.

Ashton has already promised fans there will be more arrivals to come before the window closes and the natives are understandably excited about Ipswich’s chances of taking title glory. Should the Tractor Boys find their groove early, they may take all the beating in League One this season.

58 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

However, only relegated Swindon had a higher xG per-shot conceded. This meant that if MK did concede shots, they tended to be big chances. If Dons can improve on this in 2021/22, coupled with the firepower they’ve assembled, they’re only going to be heading in the right direction.

No side had more possession than MK testament to the style of play implemented by Martin – the club should be looking to employ a coach from a similar mindset to build on the promising building blocks. And there’s plenty to work with too, with Scott Twine brought in to take over the creativity following the loss of Fraser.

MK Dons ended the season well with W7D2-L3 and if they can carry that form with them, the new arrivals should help to inspire an unexpected assault on the promotion positions.

4. CHARLTON ATH (8/1 BETWAY)

5. WIGAN ATH (12/1 BETFAIR)

6. BOLTON (20/1 BETFRED)

After just missing out on the play-offs last season due goal difference, I expect Charlton to go one better this time around.

Possibly a surprise for most readers but I really like the look of Bolton’s prospects on their return to the third-tier.

Manager Nigel Adkins took over the Addicks already on a run of W3-D2-L0 and extended that streak to W8-D6-L1, and I can see no reason why the Londoners won’t carry that impressive form into the new term. Adkins is a good manager at this level, and if nothing else, will have learnt a lot about his squad last season.

It took a time for Wanderers’ players to learn the ropes under Ian Evatt’s demanding process last term but once things clicked from January, there was no stopping the Trotters in League Two. The Whites concluded the campaign with 16 triumphs from 22, losing just three league games after the end of January.

The permanent signing of Jayden Stockley, who was excellent on-loan with eight goals in 20 games, gives Charlton a strong focal point. His partnership with Conor Washington should produce plenty.

Dapo Afolayan has signed permanently along with Declan John, Josh Sheehan adds midfield quality with on-loan winger Xavier Amaechi an England U20 international. Players such as Lloyd Isgrove, Antoni Sarcevic, Kieran Lee and Eoin Doyle remain in place, whilst defensively they’re sound with Ricardo Santos, Alex Baptiste and Gethin Jones.

Athletic might need a little more quality and numbers in attack, but if they can keep these two fit and fed, they will be fine.

At the back, the signing of Craig MacGillivray in-goal is excellent and there’s experience in defence with Jason Pearce, Chris Gunter and Ben Purrington in front. George Dobson is a good addition in midfield, Sean Clare impressed on-loan at Burton, whilst Jake Forster-Caskey, Ben Watson, Albie Morgan, Alex Gilbey along with Diallang Jaiyesimi are all great League One performers.

It’s hard to see Charlton under Adkins not having a crack at the business end of the League One standings.

Wigan are splashing the cash this summer with a new-look side ready to take on League One. The majority of big-money additions should improve Athletic’s roster with 26-goal striker Charlie Wyke’s arrival from Sunderland arguably the standout move across the whole of the division.

Sunderland played to Wyke’s strengths but will Wigan line-up in similar fashion? Do the Latics have an Aiden McGeady-type capable of supplying the ammunition to get the best out of their expensive new signing? We’ll see…

Bolton conceded 1.09 goals per-game last term and from the end of January just 13 in 22 games. Evatt has done clearly built the foundations of something special and proved he’s capable of mounting promotion charges in his previous gig with Barrow too.

The concern could be if Championship clubs decide to take a closer look at his achievements.

There’s continuity from last season’s squad, a great manager still in situ, with a collection of eye-catching additions – chuck in the momentum gained since January and if Bolton can get off to a good start, they can eye up another top-six finish.

Elsewhere, only Joe Piggott had more shots per-game than new addition Stephen Humphrys from Rochdale, as he bagged 11 goals last term for a struggling side. Then Jack Whatmough and Tom Naylor from Portsmouth look clever captures, along with Max Power, Ben Amos and Gwion Edwards, who Ipswich were very keen to keep hold of.

Leam Richardson stayed on at Wigan after Paul Cook left and he was given the job on a temporary basis, but such was this performance he has been rewarded with a three-year deal.

However, the pressure is really on him and this is a real test for someone who until last season had only been an assistant.

The squad is still a little small and lacks depth, and it will be interesting to see who else Wigan bring in, especially defensively. It’s a huge ask for a side that struggled so much last season to mount a serious promotion push, especially with an inexperienced manager but the Latics could make that leap if all falls into place.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 59

7. SUNDERLAND (7/1 BET365)

8. LINCOLN CITY (18/1 UNIBET) Another losing play-off side I feel will just miss out on another top-six berth is Lincoln.

Seeing Jorge Grant depart will be tough and how the Imps go about replacing his 22 goal involvements from 38 starts is an issue – City’s win rate was 52% when the playmaker was involved, as opposed to 33% when he missed out, highlighting his influence.

Lincoln’s second-best player last season was on-loan Brennan Johnson – he’s returned to parent club Nottingham Forest and the same can be said of Manchester City youngster Morgan Rodgers following his temporary move in January. All three players leave a worrying void in this Imps squad.

Sunderland are yet again pre-season favourites for promotion, but I don’t see the Black Cats even penetrating the play-off positions. The club is looking better behind the scenes but on the pitch, I don’t see a huge amount of improvement.

Kyril Louis-Dreyfus is looking to right the wrongs of previous ownership regimes and appears to be trying to bring some happier times back to the Stadium of Light.

The appointment of Kristjaan Speakman as sporting director is a step in the right direction, but I am not completely convinced by manager Lee Johnson.

Manager Michael Appleton has done well in the market to try to replace these players.

Chris Maguire has joined and should be able to fill the assist gap left by Grant and Lewis Fiorini on-loan from Man City and Dan Nlundulu on loan from Southampton should provide adequate cover for the departing Johnson.

City have also signed Teddy Bishop. After bursting on the Championship scene with Ipswich, big things were expected, but

Nicknamed ‘Streaky Lee’, the former Bristol City boss should have achieved more last time out and his penchant for inconsistency - long winning runs often interspersed by worrying winless streaks has to be a real cause for concern to Wearsiders.

Centre-back Callum Doyle has arrived on-loan from Man City and looks another excellent prospect but at just 17-year-old what should we expect? Corey Evans from Blackburn could be an excellent addition, and in fairness, should the players currently on the roster all come good, the Black Cats could easily go quite well.

I think Sunderland will bring more players in – I’m not sure Johnson is happy with this choice of defenders and the squad looks light up top, but there is still so much work to do to get this squad right, and I think they will miss out on the top-six.

Karl Robinson has done incredibly well at Oxford, and we have seen the Yellows secure successive top-six finishes thanks mainly due to a late run of form with goals high on the agenda.

The U’s seemed to be suffering play-off heartache as they made a slow start to last season. But things appeared to click into place from November - over the last 30 league games, Robinson’s troops garnered W18D4-L8. That’s more wins than any other side and only Peterborough took more points over the same period.

However, look a little deeper, and we can see that the majority of Oxford’s points were picked up against sides outside the top-10.

When taking on the division’s elite, United managed just W2-D7-L9, and so it was no surprise to see the group fall short of the top-two. Even on xP, the Yellows would have finished outside the play-offs.

Have they done anything over the summer to suggest they might be better placed to compete against the league’s leading lights?

No. The loss of Josh Ruffles and Rob Atkinson are blows, although with Steve Seddon coming in, Oxford should be fine at left-back. Jordan Thorniley has arrived on-loan to fill the void of Atkinson, although they still appear short. Only two sides conceded more shots in the box than Yellows last season with 58% of all efforts faced arriving from within their own penalty area.

Going forward it’s the same players - Matty Taylor, Dan Agyei and Sam Winnall are fighting to lead the line with a midfield of James Henry, Mark Sykes and Cameron Brannagan, alongside the introduction of Billy Bodin and return of Nathan Holland they should go well. I just believe League One has gotten harder and Oxford may have stood still.

Whilst a squad clear-out was needed given Sunderland’s poor transfer record over recent campaigns, I am struggling to get excited by the signing of Alex Pritchard, who has managed 36 games over the last two years and contributed zero goals and one assist during that sample. In fact, since 2017/18 he has played only 88 games, with 11 goal involvements.

But this is their fourth successive season in League One and Sunderland have yet to make a major splash. Bradley Wright, Tom Flanagan, Lynden Gooch, Aiden O’Brien and Luke O’Nien should all be good enough to stand out at this level, but seldom do. The jollies don’t have a reliable striker with Will Grigg is struggling to recapture his form for the Wearsiders.

9. OXFORD UTD (16/1 W HILL)

several bad injuries have held him back. If he can rediscover his early career form then Lincoln have a real player on their hands.

I still think Lincoln will add to a squad that’s already full of decent League One pedigree with Tayo Edun, Lewis Montsma, Anthony Scully and Liam Bridcutt, with Tom Hopper leading the line. Appleton appears to have the ability to get the best out of young loan players and if he repeat the trick in 2021/22, the Imps should again go well.

60 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

12. PORTSMOUTH (12/1 SKYBET) Portsmouth failed to make the play-offs due to a downturn in form that saw Pompey win just two of their last eight games, culminating in a 1-0 home loss to Accrington.

Things had started well for Danny Cowley after taking charge with four triumphs on the trot, but that was the highlight for the former Lincoln boss.

Despite missing out the play-offs, Portsmouth chiefs gave the head coach a new deal and he has had a clear out with 12 players released or sold. This will now be his team come the close of the transfer window.

10. WYCOMBE (20/1 BET365)

The squad needs more players but I like the purchases of Ryan Tunnicliffe and Shaun Williams, but there isn’t much else to get excited about. Pompey have kept their leading lights though with John Marquis, Ronan Curtis and Sean Raggett, but without further additions I do worry about them the Hampshire outfit mounting a serious play-off push.

The best news for Wycombe fans is knowing Gareth Ainsworth is still in situ, and that bodes well for Wanderers this season.

The Buckinghamshire boys surprised a lot of teams when they clinched promotion to the Championship, but I think everyone will know about Blues’ threats, how they play and what to expect. ‘Little auld Wycombe’ are no more and that cat has most definitely departed the bag.

Unless a relegated side has huge financial issues, or upheaval, the immediate aim is to go straight back up, and this might be the first time in a number of season where Wanderers face some pressure of expectation. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

The owners and manager have spoken about an instant return to the second-tier and their end of season form should give the group hope. From mid-March, Blues’ record read W6-D2-L3 with defeats against Barnsley, Luton and Cardiff, which left them falling just a few points short of staying up.

However, we need to remember that this was a side fortunate to be promoted in the first place during a curtailed COVID-impacted campaign. Wycombe’s return when the season was ended was W5-D1-L8, which is not promotion form and had the season played out, I think there is a good chance Ainsworth’s outfit would have fallen away.

11. SHEFFIELD WED (10/1 BET365) I am not having Sheffield Wednesday anywhere near the automatic promotion places. The club is a mess, and the Owls have a suspended points penalty hanging over them too - if they fail to pay their players once this season, six points will be deducted.

I do like the look of Gassan Ahadme, who is on-loan from Norwich, and since his arrival he has been banging in the goals in pre-season.

He might need a dream season if Pompey are to push on and realise realistic promotion ambitions.

Of course, Wednesday did suffer a points deduction last term which ultimately forced them down to League One. I wonder how the remaining players feel about their employers, who failed to pay their wages on-time as recently as June with stories suggesting some were ready to demand moves away from the club unless financial issues were resolved.

Is this the type of environment that’s going to get the best out of Sheffield Wednesday’s squad? It doesn’t feel like it, to me.

Wanderers must replace Uche Ikpeazu and Fred Onyedinma, two of their better performers. They have signed Sam Vokes to play the target man role, and for me, this is a poor signing. He won’t have the same attributes as Ikpeazu, and this will hinder Wycombe. And arguably one of their top players last term, Josh Knight, has returned to Leicester.

Kadeem Harris, Elias Kachunga, Tom Lees, Matt Penney, Moses Odubajo, Adam Reach, Jordan Rhodes and Keiren Westwood have all gone. Whilst these players have contributed to relegation, they would all be decent performers at this level. I assume this is the usual cost-cutting exercise that the majority of clubs have to go through following demotion.

The signing of Sullay Kaikai will give width and pace and Garath McCleary will operate on the other wing to try to provide the balls for the front one or two, depending how they set-up.

The players Wednesday have signed look to be solid for League One, but nothing excites me. At the time of writing, Barry Bannan is still there but even he has recently said publicly it’s not been a fun place to play, and Dominic Iorfa and Josh Windass have been rumoured to be on their way out. The loss of any of these trio would seriously impact the squad.

It’s a squad that boast plenty of experience and a sprinkle of quality with Joe Jacobson, Ryan Tafazolli and Anthony Stewart – yet these are all defensive players, and Blues need their attacking players to hit the ground running if they are to bounce back.

You know what you are going to get with the Cowleys. Lincoln and Huddersfield had a lot of similar qualities and I see no different at Portsmouth. He likes to sign seasoned professionals who know the game, and with experience comes a more consistent performance. It won’t be pretty but it’s generally effective.

There therefore is too much going on at the club to see them finishing any higher outside the top-six.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 61

13. BURTON (40/1 BETVICTOR)

14. ACCRINGTON (66/1 BOYLES) It’s hard to find fault with what John Coleman has achieved with Accrington but I don’t see Stanley pushing on again this season.

The veteran boss runs the club in the right way, bringing rough diamonds in and developing his players. His teams set-up well and play a nice brand of football and they can certainly mix it with the big boys in the division.

Indeed, the Reds rarely take a step back when coming up against the league’s leading lights.

Accy have kept the squad together from last term with only Mark Hughes sold and fringe players released. Stanley have then been able to bring in a number of newcomers to add quality and I like the additions of Harry Pell and John O’Sullivan, as well as the loan arrivals. Coleman will be able to improve these players and get the best out of them.

No side gave the ball away more than Accrington last season and they were high up the list of shots conceded.

This alongside their xGA of 1.44 per-game is what is putting my off putting the north-west club any higher than 14th.

Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink worked wonders last season on his return to Burton. The Dutchman delivered W13-D5-L6 having taken over at the Pirelli with the Brewers rock-bottom and seemingly heading for relegation. Over that 24-game sample, only promoted Blackpool, Hull and Peterborough accumulated more points than Albion.

Even so, key forwards Colby Bishop scored 10 goals with Dion Charles bagging 19 and their ability in the final-third should mean the Reds are kept well out of trouble.

Defensively they have the backline that served them well last season, and this continuity should bode well.

This turnaround was helped by 12 new faces brought in during the January transfer window. However, over this period Burton only kept eight clean sheets, which is a concern and a look at the performance metrics over these fixtures suggests the Brewers were a little fortunate to collect so many points.

Jimmy has taken the squad apart this summer with 12 players released and I think this might be his undoing. Some of the personnel, whilst potentially past their best, did offer real experience at this level, with the likes of Luke Varney, Stephen Quinn, John-Joe O’Toole and Neal Eardley all ditched.

Eleven incomings have come through the door and I like the signings of Deji Oshilaja, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson and Louis Moult, who unfortunately is now out injured for five months.

However, we are back to discussing the implications of a large squad churn and more importantly how this club will define success this season.

I think Burton’s aim will be to avoid another dogfight. The question I keep coming back to when assessing the squad is, have their improved to push on further than mid-table and the answer is, probably not. Albion should be clear of danger but a promotion push is wide of the mark.

62 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

15. CREWE (50/1 BETVICTOR) At the time of writing Crewe have held onto a number of key players and this means it should be another season of consolidation for the Alex in League One without troubling either the promotion or relegation areas, which should be seen as a success.

There is so much to like about the Railwaymen’s squad. Having posted a fifthbest xG figure last season, and secondhighest xG from open play numbers, this is a team that will attack sides and are great to watch.

Whilst the loss of Harry Pickering and Ryan Wintle will be disappointing, there is enough quality still the group to avoid alarm. So far, Crewe have kept hold of Owen Finney, Tom Lowery, Charlie Kirk - who will continue to improve - and Owen Dale, who boasted an impressive contribution of 11 goals last season.

Kirk, Dale and Mikael Mandron will be key for Crewe this term going forward and I am positive that if these three players stay they will be safely into mid-table.

The signings of Tommie Hoban and Callum McFadzean will add experience and quality at the back and then there is a question of which young players are the next off the production line. Plenty is expected of Luke Offord, Travis Johnson, Josh Lundstram and Rio Adebisi.

Kayne Ramsey has been signed onloan from Southampton and has played a handful of Premier League games, so should add some quality at right back, although I do legitimate concerns defensively – Crewe gave up the third-highest xG per-shot against in 2020/21 and an above average 4.33 shots on-target per-game.

Despite all their attacking prowess, Alex’s ability at the back is questionable enough to keep them lingering in mid-table.

16. GILLINGHAM (50/1 BET365)

18. DONCASTER (40/1 BETFRED)

Steve Evans is a wily old operator. I think it’s safe to say he isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but the Gillingham supremo gets a lot out of his players, and I think the Kent club will just have enough to avoid a relegation scrap, even if a lot will depend on target man Vadaine Oliver repeating his 20-goal exploits from 2020/21.

It was a bit of a mess at Doncaster at the back end of last season after Darren Moore walked out to take over at Sheffield Wednesday.

Rovers endured a testing finale but the club have since appointed Richie Wellens, a coach that enjoyed great success with Swindon a few years back, including a promotion as League Two champions.

In previous seasons Oliver has struggled to hit anything like double-figures and it’s hard not to argue that Jordan Graham was key to his goal-tally.

Wellens failed to be given a fair crack at the whip with Salford but now he has an opportunity to get his career back on track.

Recruitment has been good at the Keepmoat - it needed to be with a number of last season’s key players only signed on-loan.

However, I like the addition of Ben Close from Portsmouth, Jordi Hiwula should add competition up top, Matt Smith arrives onloan from Arsenal and Tommy Rowe returns from Bristol City, all of which are sound captures.

Doncaster do have some players up top that will cause problems with the pace of Hiwula, Fejiri Okenabirhie and the physical Omar Bogle, they could be a real handful.

17. SHREWSBURY (50/1) Steve Cotterill defied the odds to secure Shrewsbury’s status as a League One side last season and the Salop supremo has the ability to grind the group to safety yet again by squeezing the most out of narrow, low-scoring encounters.

Rovers probably still need a little quality in midfield but with Wellens in charge, he will see them clear of relegation. However, they will need to tighten up at the back having owned one of the worst xG ratings in the league last year for chances conceded, allowing a higher number of shots and on-target attempts.

Town did just about enough last term in terms of raw results but did boast only an 18-placed berth on xP and the fourthlowest xG figure. The question for me is, can they keep doing this, and at what point do the 1-0 wins stop?

The wideman’s creative ability gave Gills a brief glimpse at the top-six, although a 10th-place finish was probably about fair with them Evans outfit rated 14th on xP. Graham has since joined Birmingham, and whilst it was disappointing goalkeeper Jack Bonham moved to Stoke, he has been replaced by Jamie Cumming on-loan from Chelsea, fresh from keeping 17 League Two clean sheets at Stevenage. Meanwhile, centreback Max Ehmer returns after a poor season at Bristol Rovers, but overall, I am unimpressed

by Gillingham’s business.

Despite playing well for parts of the last term, I am concerned about the defence with Gills giving away the third-worst xGA and conceding the second-most shots, and I don’t see how Evans has resolved this issue. They are unlikely to score as many due to Graham’s exit and it’s a tall order to expect Oliver to repeat last season’s goalscoring feat.

If Gillingham fail to plug the defensive holes, it’s hard to argue they’ll enjoy year-on-year progress this time around.

Shrewsbury won just three of their final 15 games last term, scoring only eight goals. over the course of the campaign, Salop tabled a paltry 13 victories, notching just 50 goals, although conceded just 57 with only Fleetwood allowing fewer strikes in the bottom half. To put that into context, the sides finishing in sixth and seventh both leaked 56.

Town’s efforts were also hampered when Cotterill caught COVID and was taken into hospital, spending the rest of the season recovering at home.

When assessing the squad, I am concerned about the attacking output. Midfielder Shawn Whalley was the club’s leading scorer last season with nine, with defender Aaron Pierre third top scorer with four. Ryan Bowman has been brought in from Exeter and he did hit 14 in League Two last season, but this is a step up in quality.

Matt Pennington has been brought in at the back and this is a solid capture for Shrewsbury.

However, the squad looks light on numbers and unlikely to make serious inroads on the top half of the division. Ultimately, Salop don’t create many opportunities and struggle to score.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 63

19. FLEETWOOD (40/1 SKYBET)

20. CHELTENHAM (100/1 ) Cheltenham deservedly clinched the League Two title last season and were the best side in the division in terms of points and xP - Town were also in the top three for the majority of the major performance metrics.

Defensively sound with an average of just 0.85 goals conceded, an xGA of 0.89 with just 7.93 shots against per-game resulted in an impressive 21 clean sheet haul for the Robins.

Owen Evans has been signed to play in-goal and Cheltenham have a decent defensive line-up with Ben Tozer impressing alongside Charlie Raglan, Sean Long and Will Boyle.

Don’t expect free-flowing football although that’s not to say they are one-

21. PLYMOUTH (50/1 BETVICTOR) Plymouth finished 2020/21 in awful form (W3-D3-L12), failing to score in nine of those 18 outings. The Pilgrims’ road record was a rotten W3-D7-L13 and across the whole season Argyle conceded an average of 1.74 goals per-game, whilst only Swindon allowed a higher xGA figure than the Devon outfit.

With such damaging figures, it’s no surprise to see the Greens conceded more shots and ontarget attempts than any other. And overall, I think Ryan Lowe’s side were a little lucky to avoid a serious battle against immediate relegation.

Forward Luke Jephcott scored 16 goals last season, but all came before mid-February and at that point Plymouth’s campaign really nosedived. The striker’s downturn coincided with a very poor run – once the Welsh U21 international stopped scoring, Argyle won just three more games.

If Jephcott doesn’t score, Lowe will be relying on Niall Ennis and Ryan Hardie to do the business to keep them up - that’s a big ask. So perhaps the Pilgrims should have cashed-in on a player in high demand in January, which could have allowed the club to strengthen their overall squad.

Defensively, I don’t think Plymouth have reinforced their rearguard enough yet. James Wilson - Player of the Year at Ipswich last season - looks a good replacement on paper but suffers from injuries and may struggle to play week-in-week-out, although Dan Scarr could help matters.

Simon Grayson is yesterday’s man and despite a decent CV has struggled with very poor results at Blackpool (13 wins from 38 games), Bradford (three wins from 14 games) and Sunderland (three wins from 18 games). I am just not sure that this is a great appointment for Fleetwood going forward.

Ryan Broom should add some quality, but overall, I think this squad looks weak, poor defensively and their end of season form was awful enough to suggest a tough campaign could be on the cards.

Grayson’s football is generally dull, predictable and uninspiring. And whilst fans will overlook that when the results are going well, they won’t when things go wrong. He has already been at Fleetwood for 21 matches (winning just eight) and I don’t envisage a significant improvement in 2021/22.

There has been a change in focus at Fleetwood since the impact of the COVID pandemic, which shouldn’t be a surprise with several clubs in a similar position. January saw some of the more senior players depart, such as Ched Evans, Paul Coutts, Mark Duffy, Glenn Whelan and Wes Burn was snapped up by Ipswich earlier in the summer.

Incomings has been reserved for few under U23 loan additions and cheaper players as the Cod Army cutback on financial outgoings.

And so I feel Fleetwood will struggle for goals – as they did last season with the sixth-lowest xG output and one of the lowest shots in the box counts in League One. I don’t see how Grayson improves the squad with limited funds and he doesn’t feel like the right character that’s capable of working with the playing personnel currently available to him.

dimensional.

Manager Michael Duff knows where his teams’ strengths and weakness are, and Town play to them.

I think the Robins’ defensive abilities will keep their heads above the drop zone. It’s a strong league, but I feel there are four worse sides than the newcomers. I do have concerns over their attacking output though - last season’s top scorer Alfie May only notched nine last term and so the squad will be required to share the burden if Cheltenham are to flourish.

64 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

23. MORECAMBE (200/1 SKYBET) Always seen as pre-season relegation fodder in League Two by the bookmakers, Morecambe produced a wonderful campaign overseen by boss Derek Adams to secure an unlikely play-off triumph at Wembley. But no sooner were the celebrations underway, the Scottish manager had departed, along with a collection of key personnel.

Yann Songo’o (37 appearances, six goals) and Carlos Mendes Gomes (46 appearances, 16 goals) left for Luton, John O’Sullivan (32 appearances and four goals) to Accrington and Nat Knight-Percival (32 appearances) to Tranmere. That’s 26 goals, 13 assists and almost 150 appearances from last year’s history-making squad leaving.

24. CAMBRIDGE (150/1 BOYLES) Whilst it’s great to see a club like Cambridge back in League One, I can’t make any case for the U’s to survive. The Amber and Blacks have lost Paul Mullin, the team’s top marksman, who scored 32 goals last season - 44% of the team’s total goal tally.

Manager Mark Bonner has limited experience, which won’t help Cambridge either, especially when things go wrong, which they will this season. Last term the U’s had a better away record than at The Abbey and if they have any chance of surviving, this needs to change.

It’s vital the newcomers make their home ground a tough place to go.

On top of these integral components moving on, a number of fringe first-teamers were released, and it’s now a huge turnover of playing staff.

22. WIMBLEDON (66/1) Wimbledon finished last season strongly, scoring plenty of goals, and moving that form from last term into 2021/22 is going to be key. On xP, the Dons were well clear of the bottom-four and they really took the game to teams, creating plenty of chances.

However, my concern is that, for the majority of the campaign they weren’t actually very good. The Wombles won just five games up until the end of January and even then, victories arrived over Rochdale, Swindon and Wigan. Survival was only assured by four triumphs on the trot to conclude the season, scoring 12 goals, to escape the dreaded dogfight.

Replacing leading marksman Joe Pigott is going to key to survival. He scored 37% of their goals with fellow striker Ollie Palmer bagging just five. Brentford loanee Aaron Pressley comes with a real exciting reputation but lacks experience. Ayoub Assal is a player to catch my eye and I think this could be his season if he continues his form.

But another concern I have is Wimbledon have mainly signed players, who despite being good technically, lack first-team League One is a tough, physical league.

George Marsh from Spurs plus Luke McCormick and Henry Lawrence from Chelsea all come with glowing reputations, although the trio lack exposure, sending alarm bells ringing for me. Meanwhile, manager Mark Robinson, who did a fantastic job last term, lacks experience also lacks experience in the hot-seat.

The impact of returning to Plough Lane shouldn’t be underestimated and there’s a buoyant mood around the club but this could end up as a season of disappointment for the Dons.

New manager Stephen Robinson has taken the role after resigning from Motherwell last year following a prosperous spell north of the border. In truth, he had a very forgettable spell at Oldham, and certainly needs to improve on his first spell in the EFL if Morecambe are to stand any chance of surviving.

I do think the Shrimps have given themselves a fighting chance by taking the money from the sales and building a competent squad.

Morecambe have snapped up Ryan Cooney from Burnley after an impressive loan move.

In midfield, I like the signings of Shane McLoughlin, Alfie McCalmont, Adam Phillips and Jake McPake, who was very impressive at Harrogate.

My concern is Morecambe will struggle to score goals with Cole Stockton bagging 13 strikes last season, their only real threat.

Adams was the driving force behind the team and this was a squad tipped to be relegated by many pundits in 2020/21. I am not sure they can defy the odds again.

On Expected Points (xP), Cambridge would have finished 10th last season in League Two, which again doesn’t bode well. Defensively they had the fourth-highest Expected Goals Against (xGA) and only Oldham, who conceded 81 goals, and Crawley faced more shots - this wasn’t a team that was built on a sound defensive line.

My concern is, that when United come up against better sides with players that can take more chances, they will become unstuck.

Veteran Wes Hoolahan is the main creativity force and with him in the side they win 65% of games. However, the 39-year-old only played at weekends and was rested for midweek games which again won’t help them. A bigger question for me is, does he have the legs and body required to step up a level and consistently produce?

The signings Cambridge have could make a difference. Jack Lankester was highly thought of at Ipswich but injuries held him back, and Jensen Weir (son of David) should improve the overall squad. But ultimately, the U’s weren’t one of the best teams in League Two last term, relied heavily on Mullins for goals and were defensively poor.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 65

OUTRIGHT WINNER LEAGUE TWO

Mark O’Haire @markohaire HAVING correctly called the past League Two champions, Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) provides his ante-post opinion on the fourth-tier title challengers in 2021/22.

League Two has traditionally been the Football League’s most open and competitive renewal.

Only three seasons ago, ante-post favourites Notts County suffered a shock relegation from the fourth-tier, whilst in 2019 moneybags Mansfield and Class of 92-backed Salford failed to even penetrate the play-off positions in the curtailed campaign.

2020/21 jollies Bolton ensured their stay in the basement division was short and sweet, but the Trotters were as low as 20th in February, and only pinched an automatic promotion place due to a remarkable turnaround in results during the final-third of the season.

Wanderers were one of only five League Two title winners during the last 20 completed seasons to be priced up at single-figure odds, whilst only two preseason market leaders have taken top

honours at this level since 2000/01. Both trends suggest regional rivals Salford are best left alone at unappealing 13/2 (Betfred) quotes.

The Ammies splashed the cash in pursuit of promotion ahead their first two EFL campaigns but to no avail. Despite putting together a formidable star-filled squad, the decision to ditch Richie Wellens early doors last term dampens enthusiasm, especially with the dour Gary Bowyer the latest incumbent to the club’s inconsistent approach to the managerial position.

With a strong and solid backbone already in situ, recruiting both Rochdale and Oldham’s top goalscorers from last term in Matty Lund and Conor McAleny could provide the necessary flourish in the finalthird to push Salford into championship contention.

However, the layers are taking no chances and the Greater Manchester group are simply too short to support.

Relegated clubs have traditionally found the going tough; just two teams have topped the League Two tree this century to earn an immediate bounce back to

66 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

League One, with the vast majority missing out on the top-seven altogether.

With that in mind, Swindon, Rochdale and Northampton are easily dismissed due to various degrees of upheaval, whilst Bristol Rovers make no appeal considering the circumstances surrounding Joey Barton’s position. Instead, I’ve highlighted three teams I suspect to make serious assaults on the automatic promotion places at palatable each-way prices.

BEST BETS MANSFIELD TO WIN OUTRIGHT 12/1 ew SKYBET

BRADFORD TO WIN OUTRIGHT 14/1 ew BET365

EXETER TO WIN OUTRIGHT 14/1 ew BET365

12/1 MANSFIELD TOWN

14/1 BRADFORD CITY

14/1 EXETER CITY

Mansfield have been expected to make a major assault on League Two silverware in each of the past four seasons, although the Stags’ best effort during that recent sample culminated in a failed play-off campaign back in 2019. Successive bottom-half finishes have frustrated ambitious owners, but this time Town look well equipped to justify market expectations.

Bradford have to be considered as major players in the Outright Winner market in 2021/22 following the appointment of serial-promotion winner Derek Adams, and eye-catching 14/1 prices hold plenty of appeal with four each-way places paid at SkyBet.

Since returning to League Two in 2012, Exeter have tabled six top-10 finishes and suffered play-off final heartache on three occasions. Current boss Matt Taylor has overseen ninth, fifth and ninth-placed efforts but the Grecians now look worthy of taking the next step.

Adams has earned promotions at all three of his previous clubs, yet none were quite as astonishing as last term’s achievements. The spikey Scot guided 200/1 no-hopers Morecambe to a fairytale play-off final victory before being parachuted into the Valley Parade hot-seat with a remit to repeat the feat.

The former Bath City coach subtly tweaked City’s tactics after his arrival at St James’ Park to engineer a more forward-thinking approach.

The adjustments have worked reasonably well, especially so with the Devon outfit integrating numerous exciting prospects from the club’s prosperous academy system into the first-team picture.

The fourth-tier underachievers commence their latest crusade in a familiar position inside the top three of the betting.

However, the decision to hand respected Nigel Clough the keys to the dugout midway through last term could prove crucial in Mansfield plotting their way towards the upper echelons of the division.

Uncompromising and imposing, Clough stabilised the Stags before posting W7D4-L2 across the club’s final 13 league fixtures. A high draw count (19) kept the Yellows out of top-half contention, although performance data pointed towards Town being one of League Two’s leading lights with an Expected Points (xP) tally marginally shy of a topthree finish.

The squad’s striking options have been bolstered by 19-goal Leyton Orient hitman Danny Johnson, as well as rangy Oliver Hawkins, to provide competition for Jordan Bowery. Elsewhere, Stephen Quinn, George Maris, Ollie Clarke and George Lapslie provide Clough with a wonderful blend and exceptional array of high-quality midfield options.

The Nottinghamshire outfit now boast the foundations of a title-contending team with a squad capable of covering almost all areas. Mansfield may have made a mess of things in recent years but there’s no reason why the also-rans can’t right those wrongs, especially so with a more trustworthy boss overseeing proceedings at a very reasonable outright price.

Following two uninspiring and insipid campaigns, there’s understandable excitement and justified optimism surrounding City supporters. Pre-season business was conducted early, and a ruthless Adams appears to have built a squad that’s capable of efficient and effective performances that should spark a major challenge on the top-three positions.

Full-back positions have been upgraded, enforcer Yann Songo’o arrives to add aggressive protection for the back-four, whilst Scunthorpe forward pair Abo Eisa and Alex Gilliead give the group a new dimension.

A r g u a b l y Bradford’s most important addition was capturing striker Andy Cook on a permanent deal after an impressive loan spell last term.

The Bantams boast a solid spine, one of the best managers in the division, and should also benefit from fans returning to a rocking Valley Parade.

Bradford might not possess the style and swagger to keep neutrals entertained, but you can be sure Adams will oversee significant improvement with all the ingredients now in place for a major play at promotion.

Still, Exeter are a results-driven operation under Taylor, putting full focus on both boxes. Defensively, City produced below-par raw numbers compared to their strong underlying performance data last term and the City supremo has since moved to upgrade key positions with Sheffield Wednesday goalkeeper Cameron Dawson an exceptional loan capture.

George Ray, Jonathan Grounds and Callum Rowe provide brawn and ballast to the defensive line with Pierce Sweeney returning to the fold after an ill-fated one-day spell at Swindon.

Elsewhere, the departures of standout pair Ryan Bowman and Randell Williams have also been replaced with Timothee Dieng, Jevani Brown and Sam Nombe all capable incomings.

Keeping homegrown ace Archie Collins is a further coup, whilst the continued progression of Joel Randell, Josh Key, and new club captain Matt Jay suggests the future is bright at SJP. Having fallen just three points shy of a play-off place last time out, Taylor has the necessary depth, consistency, continuity, and maturity at his disposal to oversee a top-three charge.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 67

RELEGATION LEAGUE TWO

Mark O’Haire @MarkOHaire The magnitude of the global pandemic has had wide-reaching consequences, and in a sport where money talks, football is still coming to terms with the economic impact of COVID-19.

Uncertainty and anxiety continue to dominate the League Two landscape. The return of fans to stadiums will provide a respite to the hardest hit clubs in the pyramid yet off-field matters, and disastrous financial mismanagement has been rife across the EFL in recent years, contributing to several clubs plummeting down the rankings.

Such situations deserve special attention as possible points penalties and transfer embargos can play major roles when attempting to identify potential ante-post Relegation value.

Swindon’s well documented downfall sees the Robins arrive at the starting line totally underprepared for the rigours of a 46-game campaign. However, the long-awaited change of ownership has been ratified at the Wiltshire club and Town could conceivably start stitching together a competitive unit over the coming months to survive.

At the time of writing, rock-bottom Swindon would be top of the agenda for the drop,

LEAGUE TWO

RELEGATION

although no odds are offered. And whilst a difficult season is no doubt on the agenda for the Robins, probable skinny prices would make no appeal considering the potential for improvement from a club of their stature at this level.

Perennial relegation favourites Morecambe produced one of the Football League’s most memorable storylines when securing an unthinkable promotion last term. The Shrimps’ departure from League Two after 14 years in the fourth-tier has given bookmakers a rare new role in promoting a new club to the summit of the Relegation market.

National League champions Sutton (7/2 William Hill) takeover that unenviable tag ahead of their first-ever campaign in the EFL. However, historical trends are onside for the Amber and Chocolates with no promoted non-league club suffering immediate demotion during the modern era.

Matt Gray’s men have kept the bulk of their title-winning team together, with the club also making a selection of signings in forward areas such as Ricky Karboa, Richie Bennett, Donovan Wilson, and Enzio Boldewijn to bolster the South Londoners’ attacking output.

Even so, there are two chief concerns to overcome. Firstly, Sutton are only now transitioning towards full-time football status following promotion, whilst the 3G artificial surface that underpinned the U’s league-best W14-D4-L3 home record last term has to be ripped up and replaced by grass, potentially losing a key edge.

Nevertheless, the consistency and continuity within the ranks, and hard-working nature of Sutton suggests the newcomers will be capable of consolidating and following in the footsteps of Barrow and Harrogate in 2020/21.

SCUNTHORPE TO BE RELEGATED Successive bottom-five finishes in League Two paint a depressing picture of Scunthorpe’s alarming decline over the past decade. The Iron competed at Championship level for three seasons over a four-year spell between 2007 and 2011 but with under-fire chairman Peter Swann tightening the purse strings, inevitable regression has plunged the club into peril.

Supporters approached the 2020/21 campaign with a degree of optimism and positivity following the arrival of local pair Neil Cox and Mark Lillis as the Iron’s new manager and assistant. However, the rookie duo were unable to fashion major improvements from an underperforming and bloated squad that lacked experience, and fitness.

The Glanford Park group have consistently operated amongst the bottom-eight across a range of major performance data metrics since 2019/20 and Scunny have also now seen their two leading lights Alex Gilliead and Abdo Eisa jump ship to Bradford. Elsewhere, injury-prone but influential goal-getter Kevin van Veen has also departed.

George Taft, Harry Davis, and Manny Onariase

are reasonable defensive acquisitions, Alex Kenyon will provide midfield solidity, whilst Tyrone O’Neill and Harry Bunn have a tall task to provide necessary final-third support for Ryan Loft.

Overall, this is a squad that lacks cohesion, and depth, making the Iron easily opposable as they battle for survival. Scunny haven’t dropped into nonleague since entering the EFL in 1950 but the mood and morale around town suggests 5/1 (Betway) pre-season quotes on a bottom-two finish are well worth a poke.

HARTLEPOOL TO BE RELEGATED Following a four-year absence from the Football League, Hartlepool found their way back into the 92 via an extraordinary National League play-off final victory over Torquay. But what should have been a momentous, game-changing occasion could conceivably prove to be the Monkey Hangers’ biggest handicap coming into the 2021/22 campaign.

There will be just 50 days between Pools’ appearance in the Ashton Gate finale and the club’s curtain-raising contest in League Two, with respected head coach Dave Challinor already feeling the pressure in cultivating a squad that’s capable and competitive enough to consolidate in the fourth-tier following such a quick turnaround.

United have lost last term’s top two marksman with Rhys Oates and key loanee Luke Armstrong moving on to pastures new, whilst fellow on-loan defender Lewis Cass has also found a new home. Yet it is the lack of additions that has many Pool fans worried with the squad looking raw and ragged in three pre-season defeats to non-league opposition.

The Durham outfit are reasonably stocked in midfield, although issues really arise in attack. Hartlepool’s only addition up top until this week was Olufela Olomola, a forward that’s rarely caught fire in the past three years and deemed surplus to requirements at Scunthorpe. The alternative option was unproven 18-year-old Joe Grey with Mark Cullen only just arriving.

As previously mentioned, no promoted club has been relegated straight back down to non-league in the modern era but there are legitimate concerns that Pools could buck that trend this time around. It’s therefore surprising to see Challinor’s charges as big as 11/2 (SkyBet) for the drop.

ROCHDALE TO BE RELEGATED In seven of the last eight League Two seasons, a team priced up at 10/1 or larger for relegation has dropped out of the EFL – Chesterfield (20/1), Leyton Orient (50/1), York (11/1), Tranmere (14/1), Bristol Rovers (28/1), Aldershot (14/1) and Southend (10/1), if any of you quiz buffs were wondering…

It’s a timely reminder that shit can get very really for any clubs suffering from complacency or mismanagement, particularly for recent demotes to the fourth-tier. Indeed, three teams have endured the agony of backto-back relegations into non-league over the most recent seven seasons, and there has to be a concern that Rochdale join that unwanted record.

After a seven-year spell in League One, Dale have since seen highly-rated head coach Brian Barry-Murphy move on, with the club’s two top goalscorers - Stephen Humphrys and Matty Lund – also heading for the exit. With next to no recruitment secured under rookie boss Robbie Stockdale, the Spotland side are looking increasingly vulnerable.

Already operating from a shoestring budget, the Lancashire club’s threadbare squad is particularly shy on numbers in both boxes.

Eoghan O’Connell and Jimmy McNulty are solid centre-back options and Matt Done will always offer consistency from the left, but highly-rated Oliver Rathbone’s future is in the balance with the midfielder possibly departing.

To make matters worse, boardroom wrangling, and a hostile takeover attempt are threatening to derail any hope of stabilising following demotion, making Dale a worthy poke for relegation at a hefty 12/1 with Betway.

BEST BETS SCUNTHORPE TO BE RELEGATED 5/1 BETWAY HARTLEPOOL TO BE RELEGATED 11/2 SKYBET ROCHDALE TO BE RELEGATED 12/1 BETWAY

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 69

TOP GOALSCORER LEAGUE TWO

ANDY COOK (25/1 ew BET365) Last season saw unfancied Cambridge take League Two by storm, and a huge part of their successful campaign was down to the goals provided by top goalscorer Paul Mullin.

Mullin – who has recently made an odd transfer down to National League level with Wrexham – smashed in 32 goals for the U’s - that was 13 more than second top scorer Eoin Doyle’s tally of 19.

What’s most interesting is that Mullin was chalked up at a triple-figure price to land the Top Goalscorer gong last summer. It’s evidence enough to suggest a longshot can surprise the market - it’s all about unearthing that undervalued option.

Andy Cook was one of several recruits in the most recent January window for Bradford after Stuart McCall departed early in the year.

Initially on-loan until the end of the 2020/21 campaign from Mansfield, Cook became a firm fans favourite and even knocked Danny Rowe off the central striker role with joint interim managers Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars citing his additional pressing efforts from the front line, as well as his goal threat inside the 18-yard box.

The former Tranmere man contributed eight goals in 16 starts for the Bantams and was signed on a permanent transfer this summer, despite new manager Derek Adams being given the gig at Valley Parade.

Adams and Cook look like a good fit though, the Scottish gaffer who worked wonders at Morecambe last season, liked to play a 4-2-3-1 formation with Cole Stockton as the number nine up top, a player with similar traits to Cook.

We expect the West Yorkshire outfit to go well this term and the competition with Lee Angol should only drive Cook on to keep knocking them in.

The beauty of this market is you’re able to back players at chunky odds and take each-way terms, providing a profitable pay-out if your selection lands in the topfour places.

The 30-year-old will be aided by a plethora of options behind with the likes of Elliott Watt, Callum Cooke, Abo Eisa, Charles Vernam and Olly Crankshaw all adept in the final third. Liam Ridehalgh will be a key crossing outlet on the left and he also played in the same Tranmere side as Cook in their National League promotion campaign a few years ago.

Last year saw likely lads James Vaughan and Doyle once again make the top-four, but the other leading goal-getter was Exeter forward Matt Jay, another who was over 100/1 pre-season.

In the EFL, Cook hasn’t had much of a chance when it comes to playing a heavy majority of league games. In seasons where he has played 40+ games his goal tallies have been 11, 23, 24, 23, 26 and 13. With an even better roster of players around him, as well as a successful fourth-tier manager, he should be hitting 20+ goals should he stay fit.

I’ve plumped for a few selections at different areas in the market, whom I believe are overprices this term.

Odds of 25/1 look too chunky when compared to those below him in the market, many of whom are untried.

70 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

66/1 e/w

Tom Love @TomLove_18

66/1 e/w

DEVANTE RODNEY (66/1 ew) Port Vale manager Darrell Clarke has said his side have had a “very good window” this summer and he is eager to get going, little surprise given his personality.

However, a player who was with the club last season is fancied to go well after some bright showings.

Devante Rodney looks likely to be given the nod at the top of the pitch for the Valiants this term. The 23-year-old was probably a little too raw to play EFL football in his younger days but there’s clear improvement in a variety of aspects in his game as he matures.

Standing at 6 ft 2 in he can be a threat in the air. But far from a lump, his pace means he can beat League Two defenders in a foot race when played through.

Rodney also has an eye for the spectacular, happy to take shots from distance. But with Tom Pope departing, I’m sure Clarke will be eager for the former Salford man to stay more central and occupy defenders in the box.

With supply coming from the likes of Tom Conlon, and one of the best creators in the league in David Worrall (second for assists in the league last season), Rodney should not be short of decent supply.

The former Manchester City youth notched double figures last season but with more competition for places after the arrival of Jamie Proctor and James Wilson, it should spur Rodney on to keep his shirt.

Vale look to have their house in order this term, will be aiming for a top-seven finish and it could well be a breakout one for the front man.

It’s always interesting to see the difference in prices in these markets between firms and BetVictor are short at 25/1 whereas Bet365 are a bulbous 66/1. In truth I’d have him priced up something in between and would happily take anything from 50/1 upwards with each-way terms.

Offrande Zanzala (66/1 ew) I’ll certainly be keeping a keen eye on how Barrow do this term under new boss Mark Cooper. It was somewhat of a coup to get the former Forest Green and Swindon coach in and there’s eyes on a top-half finish for this side after doing just enough to survive the drop in their debut EFL campaign.

To be fair to Cooper, his Forest Green side were putting up some good numbers on the Expected Goals (xG) and shot data throughout his reign, suggesting his sides are well capable of creating. Only Cheltenham finished above FGR on Expected Points (xP) last season and an intriguing test awaits him on the Cumbrian coastline this year.

TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has been tasked with tackling the ante-post Top Goalscorer market ahead of the 2021/22 League Two season. Here are his three favourite fancies. the likes of Jamie Devitt, Tom White, Josh Gordon and Josh Kay supporting the 23-yearold, he shouldn’t be short of service.

Cooper has spoken of how his side are unfancied by the bookmakers and he couldn’t hide his delight at seeing them almost written off by many - that’s a dangerous cocktail for opposition. He’s eager to prove people wrong and if he can bring his attacking style to Barrow then they could well be a dark horse.

Zanzala could benefit hugely from a full season at a club and quotes of 66/1 look worthy of an each-way punt.

There’s been a fair few arrivals at Holker Street already, but perhaps most eyecatching is Offrande Zanzala, coming in to replace the Stockport-bound Scott Quigley.

Quigley impressed in 2020/21, notching 15 times for the Bluebirds. His output will be difficult to best although the lively Zanzala looks likely to be given the nod up top after claiming the number 10 shirt.

The Congolese frontman has always shown glimpses of how dangerous he can be, firstly on-loan at Accrington from Derby and then with Carlisle last season. Given how good Carlisle were doing in the final third, game-time was relatively scarce but he still chimed in with a respectable five goals in 15 starts.

Zanzala’s still slightly rough around the edges but he proved a real handful for defences last season with his rangy frame and pace. He clearly improved his heading ability too at Brunton Park, getting into good areas between the sticks and standing over 6 ft, he’s always going to provide some aerial threat.

Given how strong Cooper’s Forest Green side were from attacking set-pieces, Zanzala could be a key beneficiary. With

BEST BETS ANDY COOK TOP SCORER 25/1 ew BET365

DEVANTE RODNEY TOP SCORER 66/1 ew BET365

OFFRANDE ZANZALA TOP SCORER 66/1 ew BETVICTOR

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 71

LEAGUE TWO

SPECIALS

Tom Love @TomLove_18

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has scoured the dozens of League Two specials markets and shares his best bets ahead of the 2021/22 big kick-off.

TALK OF THE TOWN A strong start to their debut campaign in the EFL saw Harrogate gain plenty of plaudits, and rightly so. Many didn’t really know what to expect from the Yorkshire side but the calm continuity behind the scenes, and in the dugout, was a major factor in a seamless transition into the unknown.

Simon Weaver has been at the club for over a decade now and the compound effects of

his evergreen tenure has meant there’s been little cause for concern, or fear at the club, just an enjoyable ride. With an FA Trophy in the bag too, it shows this side have a thirst for winning, but it’s the process that ultimately leads to favourable results.

It was far from ideal last term with the club having to play in Doncaster for the first few months of the season as their artificial

72 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

turf was dug up and grass laid down, as per EFL regulation. Town are a team that like to get the ball on the floor and the slick surface was a benefit for them, especially in the winter months.

Town should therefore be fully accustomed to the grass now and I think they could outperform their ante-post odds. Weaver has opted to freshen up the side with peripheral

players let go and replaced by better quality additions.

Strikers Luke Armstrong and Danilo OrsiDadamo have arrived from Hartlepool and Maidenhead respectively to add firepower to the Sulphites frontline. The duo bagged a combined 34 goals in the National League last term and both had a host of EFL suitors tracking their progress.

could be the key to a successful campaign and the 11/8 (SkyBet) on Harrogate to finish in the tophalf ranks as one of my favourite plays of the summer.

Interestingly, Town ranked as a top-seven side on Expected Goals (xG) created pergame last season, despite finishing in 17th. With a better quality of finisher now at the club, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put a few teams to the sword and the 33/1 available, again with SkyBet, on the Sulphites to be the Highest Scoring Team could be an

Nathan Sheron and Lewis Page have EFL experience and will add energy, whereas seasoned pro Rory McArdle brings with him a wealth of League Two pedigree.

The spine of the side will be largely unchanged though with Connor Hall and Will Smith both solid options at the back, influential captain Josh Falkingham will continue to dictate the midfield, whilst quality right-sided player George Thomson and 15-goal attacker Jack Muldoon (above) both signed new contracts.

Weaver expects one or two more additions but there’s a strong base there to kick-on and improve on last season. With plenty of managerial changes in the league, continuity

interesting proposition.

Looking at the shortest-priced teams for promotion, a fair few of the managers certainly err towards defensive stability over attacking flair. Gary Bowyer (Salford), Nigel Clough (Mansfield). Kenny Jackett (Leyton Orient) and Micky Mellon (Tranmere) are examples of gaffers who place real value on clean sheets.

Should the Sulphites be relatively clear from danger for the majority of the season, they may well play with freedom, and if they can convert the good chances they create, it will only breed more confidence.

Experienced campaigners such as Jon Stead and Mark Beck departed but they’re much more about hold up play rather than goalscoring. There looks to be more dynamism and sharpness at the top of the pitch now and I’m excited to see how they go this year.

Harrogate are certainly a team to keep an eye on…

BEST BETS HARROGATE TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF 11/8 SKYBET HARROGATE TO BE THE HIGHEST SCORING TEAM 33/1 SKYBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 73

STATS & TRENDS LEAGUE ONE WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new League Two campaign.

Relegated Clubs Relegated clubs have won League Two in 2/21 seasons (10%) this century.

League Winners Average price – 16/1.

Average position finished year previously – 10th.

Average finishing position of a relegated club – 12th.

16/1 22

15 (71%) of the past 21 League Two title winners were priced up at double-figure odds.

14 (67%) of the past 21 League Two title winners were priced up at 12/1 or larger.

7 (33%) of the past 21 league winners this century were priced at 20/1 or larger.

6 (29%) of the past 21 winners were priced at single-figure odds.

6 (29%) of the past 21 title winners failed in the play-offs the year previous.

2 (10%) of the past 21 League Two title winners had just been PROMOTED from the National League.

2 (10%) of the past 21 League Two title winners had just been RELEGATED from League One.

Top 3 Finishers Average price – 18/1.

Average position finished year previously – 10th. 16 (25%) were relegated clubs, with 12 (19%) having been involved in an unsuccessful play-off bid the year previous; 31 (49%) had posted a top-half with 11 (17%) arriving after a bottomhalf berth. Meanwhile, 5 (8%) top-three finishers were promoted clubs from the National League.

13

13 (62%) of the past 21 seasons has seen a side priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top three.

4 (19%) of the past 21 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.

Any Other Business

5

22/83 (27%) clubs have won promotion straight back to League One with 28 (34%) finishing in the top-seven, and 46 (55%) in the tophalf. Meanwhile, 37 (45%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 5 (6%) suffered a second successive relegation.

The top-scoring side (or joint-top) in League Two has been crowned champs in 5/21 (24%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 18 (86%) occasions (average finish 3rd).

The lowest scoring side (or joint-lowest) in League Two has been relegated in 11/21 (52%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 9 (43%) occasions (average finish 22nd).

The best defence (or jointbest) in League Two has been crowned champions in 11/21 (52%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 16/21 (76%) seasons (average finish 2nd)

11

The side with the worst defence (or joint-worse) in League Two has been relegated in 10/21 (48%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 8 (38%) occasions (average finish 21st).

In each of the last 8 completed League Two seasons, a team priced up at 10/1 or bigger for relegation has dropped out of the EFL.

PROMOted Clubs Average finishing position of a promoted club – 15th.

Both promoted clubs have survived in every League Two season in the modern era – the last time a promoted non-league club suffered immediate relegation was 1987.

7 (18%) promoted clubs have won promotion again this century, 10 (26%) have finished in the top-seven with 15 (39%) tabling top-half finishes.

Alternatively, 23 (61%) concluded their campaign in the bottom-half.

74 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Favourites

TH

7

Average finishing position – 7th.

Average price of the favourites – 11/2 (Salford are 13/2 this season).

Portsmouth (2016/17) and Notts County (2009/10) are the only winning favourites this century – an 10% title win rate over the past 21 seasons.

11 (52%) OF THE PAST 21 FAVOURITES THIS CENTURY HAVE WON PROMOTION, 10 (48%) VIA A TOPTHREE FINISH. 13 (62%) of the past 21 favourites this century have finished in the top-seven.

8 (38%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished outside the topseven with 5 (24%) in the bottom-half and 1 (5%) being relegated.

8

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns

TH

9

The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 10th.

3 (14%) of the 21 playoff final losers have bounced back by gaining promotion in the following campaign – 14 (67%) registered topseven finishes again and 16 (76%) concluded in the top-half. However, 5 (24%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half.

THE AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION OF A SIDE INVOLVED IN AN UNSUCCESSFUL PLAY-OFF CAMPAIGN IS 10TH. 15 (24%) teams involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign has bounced back to win promotion the year after falling, with 27 (43%) tabling another top-seven finish and 39 (62%) registering a top-half finish. However, 24 (38%) ended in the bottom-half with 2 (3%) relegated.

NEW SEASON OFFER

WLBGOLD

JOIN US FOR THE SEASON GET 12 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF 9

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

HOW THEY’LL FINISH LEAGUE TWO Edward Walker @Edward_W97

1. BRADFORD CITY (14/1 Bet365)

LEAGUE TWO specialist Edward Walker (@Edward_W97) delivers his team-by-team verdicts ahead of the 2021/22 campaign, with a 1-24 rundown covering each club in-depth ahead of the new season.

2. FOREST GREEN (16/1 BETFRED)

3. EXETER CITY (14/1 BET365)

Forest Green begin an EFL season without Mark Cooper at the helm for the very first time. In his place comes 38-year-old Rob Edwards, certainly less experienced in senior management than his predecessor, but by no means a novice to life on the sidelines.

There’s justified optimism among the Bradford fanbase. After two disappointing campaigns at this level, the Bantams finally look like a side capable of competing with the division’s best.

One of the big reasons for this is the new arrival in the dugout. Derek Adams joins City fresh off earning a fairytale promotion with Morecambe. The ruthless 46-year-old has earned a promotion with every one of the three clubs he has managed previously, two of them coming at this exact level with Plymouth in 2017, as well as the Shrimps last term.

Bradford’s backline can contain the Irish pair of Paudie O’Connor and Niall Canavan in front of Richard O’Donnell, with young defenders including Reece Staunton and Finn CousinDawson up and coming. Wrexham’s Fiacre Kelleher adds another centre-back option, with Tranmere’s Liam Ridehalgh available at left-back and Salford’s Oscar Threlkeld at right-back.

Midfield enforcer Yann Songo’o reunites with Adams once again and could provide solidity that allows the likes Gareth Evans, Levi Sutton, youngster Kian Scales, and the creative Callum Cooke to be more expressive.

Deeper-lying Elliot Wat is one certainly worth monitoring.

The former Wolves man has a squad with plenty of talent on display. Defence alone for instance can include Kane Wilson, Dominic Bernard, Dan Sweeney, Baily Cargill, Jordan Moore-Taylor and the exciting right-sided defender Udoka Godwin-Malife, one who could continue the trend of seeing promising talent leave the Gloucestershire to higher levels.

Left-sided player Nicky Cadden is capable of dominating the flank all on his own, whilst Elliott Whitehouse and the lively Ebou Adams are joined by Colchester’s Ben Stevenson, Raith Rovers’ Regan Hendry and Wolves’ Sadou Diallo in more central areas.

The versatility in defence and midfield allows FGR to look effective in possession with both a back four and a wing-back system.

A notable injury stopped focal striker Jamille Matt from adding to his 16-league goal season last year. Whilst the underrated ability of Aaron Collins is no longer present, any one of Jake Young, Josh March, Matty Stevens or Jack Aitchison (a familiar face to those at The New Lawn) could be dangerous playing off 31-year-old Matt.

Avoid any serious niggles like the last campaign, and this Forest Green side could be one to fear all season long. The new man in the dugout is relatively new to the management game but has an impressive coaching CV and could be the final piece of the puzzle that FGR have been looking for in their pursuit of third-tier football.

An overhaul in the frontline leaves just wingers Charles Vernam and Oliver Crankshaw under contract. They are in turn joined by the versatile Scunthorpe forward pair of Abo Eisa and Alex Gilliead, with Leyton Orient’s Lee Angol, Walsall’s Caolan Lavery and Mansfield’s Andy Cook available in striker positions.

What Bradford have in Adams is a relentless winner with a first-class track record at this level, and a group of players who can really suit the way he wants the Bantams to play.

They might well not end up being the most entertaining team to watch, but you can be certain that they’ll be effective.

76 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

T h e rise of Ollie Watkins has subsequently given strong finances to Exeter, in turn allowing them to demand higher fees for stars from their coveted academy. If they can retain the vast majority of this crop, there’s a lot to suggest that this season could be memorable.

Matt Taylor has Sheffield Wednesday goalkeeper Cameron Dawson at his disposal.

Tranmere’s George Ray, Swindon’s Jonathan Grounds and Aston Villa’s Callum Rowe add to a defensive line that includes Pierce Sweeney (back after initially signing for Swindon), young Alex Hartridge, and the incredibly talented, incredibly versatile wide pair of Jack Sparkes and Joshua Key. Timothée Dieng, who played everywhere from centre-back to centre-forward for Southend last season, is a natural midfield arrival. Jevani Brown, capable of the spectacular but not always adept of showing it, can play further forward in midfield or the frontline.

Meanwhile, progressive midfielder Archie Collins is tied down to a new deal, with Nigel Atangana adding solidity. Young Sonny Cox or Harry Kite could become better known names as the season progresses.

Matt Jay is the one to watch, with the fluid attacking player providing 25 league goal involvements last term. Ryan Bowman is now in League One, but MK Dons’ Sam Nombe or Exeter’s own Ben Seymour could fill that striker void.

After this group fell short of the play-offs last season, the Grecians could well be able to push for the higher spots if they can keep hold of this special group of players. Fans would much rather see top three than another play-off campaign, and if the talent stays put then that may well be possible.

4. SALFORD CITY (13/2 BETFRED)

6. MANSFIELD TOWN (12/1 BET365)

Project 92 Limited will undoubtedly feel that their club has been in this division for two seasons too many. Entering a third straight campaign at fourth-tier level, Salford have gained a reputation for their player turnover and impatient managerial sackings. Stability could be the key to getting things right this time around...

The Radford’s pursuit of League One has led to them entering a new season with Nigel Clough. He carries a respected reputation but has yet to win an EFL promotion off his own back.

He could end that wait here though with a squad that has loan options in goal and a defensive line that includes Farrend Rawson, James Clarke, Birmingham’s Ryan Burke and the versatile pair of James Perch and Grimsby’s Elliot Hewitt.

The squad certainly has the ability to compete.

Goalkeeper Václav Hladký is now with Ipswich, but Newport’s Tom King is a more than good enough replacement. Another former Exile in right-back Liam Shephard joins a backline that includes one of the lower leagues finest left-backs Ibou Touray, as well as Ashley Eastham and Jordan Turnbull.

Notable midfield additions include former Rochdale man Matty Lund into a position that was perhaps their weakest last term, and the versatile Josh Morris from Fleetwood, capable out on the left or in a more central role.

Jason Lowe or Alex Denny could well partner Lund in central midfield, with Luke Burgess, Ashley Hunter and the exciting Brandon Thomas-Asante best either out wide or in a more attacking position. Hunter’s ability from long range makes him particularly notable.

Thirty-six-year-old Ian Henderson had a hand in 24 league goals for Salford last season and could well look for similar numbers again despite his age. The acquisition of Conor McAleny, who himself got 18 goal involvements for Oldham in 2020-21, forms what could well be a very frightening frontline.

Salford will demand promotion this season, and based on recent history, that could well mean that Gary Bowyer will be out of a job if he doesn’t achieve it.

Many believe the Ammies’ decision to dismiss Richie Wellens last March was hasty, and some feel he’d be a better fit for these players than his replacement. Bowyer is going to want to prove a lot of people wrong.

Agile midfielder Stephen Quinn has made his loan move permanent and adds to what looks an exciting central unit with Harry Charsley, George Maris, Ollie Clarke, Jason Law, George Lapslie, Stephen McLaughlin, and Birmingham loanee Ryan Stirk. Kellan Gordon is someone who can play in several right-sided positions, McLaughlin left-sided.

5. PORT VALE (16/1 BET365) Port Vale’s 2020-21 season included the highs of eight wins from a possible nine and the lows of looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation spots. After a 13th-place finish, manager Darrell Clarke has been able to build a team in his own image, and it could have a memorable campaign.

Defensive additions include Brazilian goalkeeper Lucas Covolan, who went viral when he scored a stoppage-time equaliser for Torquay in the National League play-off final, and Mansfield stopper Aidan Stone.

Left-sided defender Ryan Johnson arrives from Hartlepool, as does the left-back pair of Mal Benning and Dan Jones from Mansfield and Salford respectively. The latter has a long throw in his locker that could prove useful.

Hamilton’s Aaron Martin returns to League Two as another defensive arrival, with James Gibbons, Leon Legge and Nathan Smith still under contract from last season.

Blackpool’s Ben Garrity, Shrewsbury’s Brad Walker and Stevenage’s Tom Pett add quality and versatility to a midfield unit that already contains Jake Taylor and Tom Conlon. The latter should be considered among the division’s very best and could be in line for another exceptional campaign.

Stags fans will hope to see more of Jimmy Knowles following a loan spell at Notts County. Jordan Bowery, youngsters Tyrese Sinclair and Nathan Caine, and Hartlepool’s Rhys Oates are also forward options. Striker options come in the form of Leyton Orient poacher Danny Johnson and the tall Oliver Hawkins from Ipswich.

Mansfield’s squad is likeable, but perhaps the biggest doubt comes with the man in charge of them. Clough’s lone EFL promotion came after taking over a high-flying Burton from Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink. In his final years with the Brewers, his side was known for trying to play good football, but often left fans frustrated by in-game decisions that cost valuable points during the season.

Mansfield are of course a different club to Burton, but his inability to guide Derby or Sheffield United out of their respective divisions should be noted as well.

Clough is outstanding at stabilising a football club, he hasn’t yet shown to be that capable of taking a team to the next level though.

Club icon Tom Pope has moved on, with the forward unit now containing David Amoo and the promising Devante Rodney, who has the qualities to be a leading forward at this level.

Either Salford’s James Wilson and Rotherham’s Jamie Procter could be an effective loan striker that Vale have been looking forward, whilst the creative talent of David Worrall should continue to flourish either out wide or in midfield.

The combination of manager Clarke and director of football David Flitcroft have overseen an encouraging summer of transfer business. Vale fans will be hopeful that results on the pitch can match the optimism off it.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 77

7. TRANMERE (16/1 BET365)

8. BRISTOL ROVERS (11/1) Bristol Rovers are tasked with returning to the third-tier at the first attempt, but that could be easier said than done.

Goalkeeper Anssi Jaakkola, part of Finland’s Euro 2020 squad, can still be called upon to play behind a backline that can include Alfie Kilgour, Cian Harries, Jack Baldwin, Accrington’s Mark Hughes, Rotherham’s Trevor Clarke, Carlisle’s Nick Anderton and Stoke loanee Connor Taylor. Harrogate’s James Belshaw is a decent alternative in the goalkeeper position.

Midfield now includes former Fleetwood pair of Sam Finley a n d

the

Mickey Mellon, a double promotion winner with Tranmere, is back at Birkenhead but has a big hole to fill in his team’s frontline. Find that player, and it could end up a successful season.

9. CARLISLE UTD (20/1 BETVICTOR) Losing players to longer-length deals elsewhere wasn’t ideal early into the summer, but Chris Beech’s side do still have plenty of quality in place.

Scott Davies should retain his place in goal in front of a backline that can still include left-flank player Calum MacDonald and the evergreen centre-back Peter Clarke, who will be 40 next January.

Bristol Rovers’ Tom Davies joins following a loan spell at this level with Barrow, as does Morecambe promotion winner Nathaniel Knight-Percival, Birmingham right-back Josh Dacres-Cogley and Accrington’s Joe Maguire.

Tranmere had a top-class midfield unit last season and continue to do so. Jay Spearing provides an excellent blend of passing and physical tackling in a deeper role, with Wigan’s Chris Merrie, Motherwell’s Sam Foley and Northampton’s box-to-box man Ryan Watson able to play slightly higher.

Kieron Morris and Otis Khan can play in a plethora of midfield, forward and wing positions, as can Liam Feeney who has made his move permanent from Blackpool.

Corey Blackett-Taylor has looked a threat in games from the left flank, with former Sunderland, Wigan and Luton man Callum McManaman added to the wide options.

The biggest challenge for Mellon however could be finding a consistent goal scorer.

2020-21’s top striker James Vaughan has chosen to retire and leaves a significant hole in the centre-forward position.

It’s unclear at this stage if any of Salford’s Emmanuel Dieseruvwe, Warrington Rylands’ Elliot Nevitt or Liverpool loanee Paul Glatzel will be able to fill that void, and if they don’t then there will be a reliance on Tranmere’s group of midfielders and wingers to all contribute with goals.

A main marksman may need to emerge if Mellon is to win promotion number three at Prenton Park.

Magnus Norman and Burnley loanee Lukas Jensen are set to compete for a starting place in goal. The defence in front of them still includes Rod McDonald, versatile full-back Jack Armer, the impressive Aaron Hayden, and George Tanner who looked among the division’s best right-backs last season.

Right-sided defender Corey Whelan is a new addition from Wigan.

Paul Coutts, alongside Crystal Palace loanee Sion Spence. They should add quality to other central options like Ben Liddle, Zain Westbrooke and the versatile Josh Grant.

Striker Harvey Saunders is another former Fleetwood man, who could be effective at this level if he can consistently find the goalscoring form that he had for a brief spell early last season. Swindon’s Brett Pritman, on the other hand, adds vastly more experience and goalscoring knowhow.

Other frontline additions include former Lincoln winger Harry Anderson and Barnsley loanee Luke Thomas. Perhaps the most notable though could be Forest Green’s Aaron Collins, one of the division’s more underrated players who can be exceptional in the free role behind a striker.

The Gas have a number of players who could be among the league’s strongest, and potentially a squad who could be competitive with the upper end sides. The uncertainty around the manager’s position however could jeopardise any hopes of immediate success this season.

78 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Midfield can still include the collective trio of Joe Riley, Callum Guy and Jon Mellish. Mellish found impressive form as a goalscoring boxto-box midfielder, whilst deeper lying Callum Guy provided more assists than anyone else in League Two last season and is among the division’s best central players.

Young Taylor Charters and Josh Dixon could feature during the season, with Danny Devine an option in midfield or the right side of defence.

Lewis Alessandra is a fluid forward player who went under the radar last season, whilst Gime Touré provided moments of magic coupled with moments of inconsistency.

Newport’s Tristan Abrahams will be hoping a move to Cumbria can get his career properly going, and Manasse Mampala is an arrival from Everton following a trial.

The most notable addition though is Zach Clough from Wigan, a player who has seen injuries badly hamper his career so far. He has undoubted talent beyond League Two level and could be a true star at Brunton Park if he finds the consistent gametime to show it.

Non-football related issues hurt a high-flying Carlisle last season. If those issues don’t return in 2021-22, the Cumbrians could be on for a very positive campaign. This is a strong group, especially in midfield.

10. COLCHESTER (40/1 S INDEX

12. NEWPORT COUNTY (20/1) It was more late play-off heartbreak for Newport at Wembley, losing in controversial circumstances. Michael Flynn is now entering his fifth full season as manager, and will hope that this can be the year where County stop being the nearly men.

Colchester’s close location and history with Ipswich has seen a number of Tractor Boys head to Essex to join Hayden Mullins’ side.

Some of them could have a very notable impact.

Thirty-six-year-old Dean Gerken and 23-yearold Shamal George are both goalkeepers who were present at Colchester last season.

Centre-back Tom Eastman begins his 11th consecutive season with the U’s, with Tommy Smith and Ipswich’s 35-year-old Luke Chambers adding additional experience in the centre of defence.

Goalkeeper Joe Day is back with the Exiles having left them for Cardiff in 2019. In front of him is traditionally a back three that can include Priestley Farquharson, Mickey Demetriou, Matt Dolan or Scot Bennett, the latter two also capable in midfield. Former Bristol Rovers and Walsall man James Clarke adds to the central defensive options.

The full-back positions are generally younger, containing Miles Welch-Hayes, Solihull Moors loanee Cameron Coxe and the academy products Ryan Clampin, Junior Tchamadeu, Billy Cracknell and Harvey Sayer. Clampin and Tchamadeu could be the two to watch most here on the left and right respectively.

Left-wing-back Ryan Haynes should continue to be dependable, with Aaron Lewis an emergent right-sided option. Walsall’s Cameron Norman is a very good alternative though and makes up for the loss of Liam Shephard.

The U’s midfield unit provides a promising mix of youth and experience. Brendan Wiredu is an impressive all-around midfielder, Noah Chilvers is another emergent academy talent.

Added to that is Cambridge’s versatile man Luke Hannant, and the Ipswich pair of Cole Skuse and Alan Judge. The latter could potentially show himself to be among the division’s best attacking midfielders.

Frank Nouble has made a return to Colchester permanent after initially being on-loan from Plymouth, and there’s another familiar face in Ipswich’s Freddie Sears who was last with the U’s in early 2015.

This looks an intriguing season for Colchester.

The club renowned for their youth talent still has plenty of players ready to show their worth, but has added notable experience in all units, including players from Ipswich that could light up the league if used effectively.

Last season’s 20th-place finish should be improved on, and it possibly could be by a lot.

11. LEYTON ORIENT (16/1 BETWAY)

Having lost the creativity and dominance of Josh Sheehan and Joss Labadie respectively, Newport could well have a new-look midfield that can include Bristol Rovers’ Ed Upson, Swindon’s Christopher Missilou the versatile Robbie Willmott or Villa loanee Finn Azaz.

Leyton Orient have secured one of the most notable appointments at this level in Kenny Jackett. The 59-year-old comes with a good reputation, but there isn’t a guarantee that all the change at Brisbane Road will instantly reap its rewards.

Chilean stopper Lawrence Vigoroux, whose flat drop kick is a counter-attacking weapon, should retain his place in goal. Twentytwo-year-old Dan Happe and 28-year-old Adam Thompson could be in line for starts in defence, though the notable additions of Crewe’s Omar Beckles, Hibernian right-back Tom James and dynamic Bradford left-back Connor Wood show promise of how good the O’s backline could be.

Darren Pratley adds a vast amount of experience into a team that no longer has Jobi McAnuff playing, with Ousseynou Cissé, Craig Clay and young Hector Kyprianou adding solidity to midfield. Dan Kemp can operate in attacking midfield positions or out wide, where 20-year-old Ruel Sotiriou, QPR’s Paul Smyth and versatile Lincoln loanee Theo Archibald are also options.

The goals and wide threat of Danny Johnson and Conor Wilkinson are now elsewhere in League Two. In their place are Ipswich’s Aaron Drinan, still waiting to properly make his mark on the English game, and Northampton’s giant striker Harry Smith.

A notable outflux of players this summer has left Jackett with a lot to do at Orient, but this is a man who does have the credentials to get this club out of the fourth-tier. It’s unclear yet as to whether he will be able to achieve this inside one season, but there is a sense that the East London team have a good longterm strategy in place for success.

F o r w a r d additions perhaps suit the use of a front three, with names including Dom Telford, Barrow’s Courtney Baker-Richardson, Ross County’s Jermaine Hylton and Colchester’s Courtney Senior capable in wider positions whilst Pádraig Amond, Lewis Collins or Fulham loanee Timmy Abraham can play more centrally.

The truly evergreen Kevin Ellison has a new one-year deal as well and will continue to play professional football until at least 43.

After just missing out on League One last May, Newport have been hit by the loss of two influential midfielders, and it isn’t entirely clear as to whether they will be easily replaced by what is already here. One thing is for sure though, teams are not going to enjoy coming to Rodney Parade again this season.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 79

13. WALSALL (25/1 BET365)

14. STEVENAGE (66/1 BOYLES)

15. CRAWLEY TOWN (66/1)

2019-20 truly is a thing of the past now.

Alex Revell’s unfancied side in 2020-21 were among the division’s best defensive outfits and finding the net on a more consistent basis could have seen them achieve better than a 14th-place finish.

West Ham loanee Joseph Anang is one to keep an eye on between the sticks. The defence in front of him still includes the experience of Scott Cuthbert and Luke Prosser, alongside the impressive Guyanese international Terence Vancooten.

Full-back positions contain Ben Coker and the ever-improving Antiguan international Luther James-Wildin. Barrow’s Bradley Barry is a versatile option out wide or even in midfield.

Stevenage had an underrated central unit last season that now contains the metronome midfielder of Arthur Read, in permanently following a loan spell from Brentford, alongside Notts County’s Jake Reeves and former Exeter captain Jake Taylor.

Former Premier League stalwart Matthew Taylor takes the Walsall job for 2021-22, his first permanent role in senior management.

Though certainly inexperienced, the same can’t be said for the group of players at this disposal.

Promising Brighton loanee Carl Rushworth could be in line to start in goal behind a backline that includes Mat Sadler, Hayden White, Tranmere’s Manny Monthé, Aberdeen’s Ash Taylor, Mansfield loanee Rollin Menayese, Port Vale’s Zak Mills and former Republic of Ireland international Stephen Ward.

Midfield sees the notable arrival of Halifax’s Jack Earing and dominant Newport midfielder Joss Labadie, joining a unit that already includes the incredibly versatile Liam Kinsella, promising youngsters Alfie Bates and Sam Perry, and the more attacking pair of Emmanuel Osadebe and potentially key creator Rory Holden.

Nineteen-year-old Jack Smith is worth keeping an eye on, with much more experience provided by Chris Lines. The 1996-born pair of Charlie Carter and Elliot Osborne are capable in a plethora of midfield and forward positions, Carter in particular.

The raw pace of Elliott List is likely to still cause opposition problems either out wide or up top. Luke Norris, Bristol Rovers’ James Daly, and Mansfield’s Jamie Reid join List to form a group of strikers that could form effective pairs if Revell continues the 4-4-2 formation that featured often last season.

Stevenage can be expected to continue the defensive solidity of last season with an excellent, disciplined, improving backline and midfield. It remains unclear as of yet though as to whether they can find the goals to consistently pick up wins, and that could be the difference between mid-table and a finish up towards the top this season.

Harrogate’s Brendan Kiernan, who showed the threat his pace can provide both out wide and up top last season, is another new signing alongside Leyton Orient’s Conor Wilkinson, a player with a tendency to cut in on his left from the right-hand-side, and Kieran Phillips who is making his first loan move away from his hometown club Huddersfield.

Walsall have put together what looks an intriguing defence and midfield foundation, with an attacking unit that has some notable quality but still looks low in overall numbers for now. With an outflux of players leaving the club following the conclusion of last season, 2021-22 can certainly be seen as a fresh start both on and off the pitch.

80 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

John Yems’ nononsense, brutally honest approach to football management and interviews has attracted plenty of plaudits from pundits. His Crawley team is often a handful to play against but has yet to compete fiercely for those top places in League Two. Glenn Morris turns 38 in December but is still an ever-dependable goalkeeper at this level.

Young Alfie Jones or Stoke loanee Blondy Nna Noukeu may compete with him for a starting spot this season though.

Defence still includes Tom Dallison, Emmanuel Adebowale, Jordan Tunnicliffe, Tony Craig and Nick Tsaroulla alongside the very versatile pair of George Francomb and Archie Davies, normally right-backs if in defence. Harry Ransom is a centre-back arrival from Millwall and Owen Gallacher is a left-sided arrival from Burton looking to find his breakthrough season.

Progressive passer Jack Powell is part of a midfield unit that includes Jake Hessenthaler, Josh Wright, Sam Matthews, and the more typically wide options of Reece Grego-Cox, Tyler Frost, Sam Ashford, Davide Rodari and Sam Tilley. Eastleigh’s Jack Payne is a new addition to Crawley’s central unit.

Tom Nichols had a significant attacking influence on the Red Devils in 2020-21 and could well do the same this season. Ashley Nadesan is a striker who has previous being part of an effective front two, with Ricky German and several of the natural wingers also options in the centre-forward position.

Crawley have grown a reputation for giving young free agents and non-league players an opportunity to develop and impress at a football league level, and they have reaped the rewards in recent times.

It’s unlikely we’ll see a repeat of the incredible Max Watters rise from last season, but if a new star can emerge then John Yems’ side will need to be taken very seriously.

16. BARROW (66/1 BOYLESPORTS)

18. NORTHAMPTON (20/1 BETFRED)

Having secured survival late into the 202021 season, Barrow will be keen to show improvement on a 21st-place finish.

Northampton look a very different side to the one which won the League Two play-offs around a year ago, and it could be a tough ask for Jon Brady to repeat what Keith Curle achieved at the end of 2019-20.

Into the dugout comes Mark Cooper, a ruthless boss who oversaw Forest Green’s ascent into the EFL. He heads into the new campaign with Paul Farman, the owner of a huge goal kick.

Northampton do have competition in the goalkeeping position now with both Walsall’s Liam Roberts and Exeter’s Jonny Maxted decent players for this level.

Defence sees the arrival of Tranmere centreback Mark Ellis as well as Blackburn’s Joe Grayson and Birmingham’s Remeao Hutton, who is incredibly versatile down either flank.

Connor Brown, Patrick Brough, Matthew Platt, James Jones and Kgosi Ntlhe all remain.

The only midfield arrival so far is a familiar face in Tom White, now permanently from Blackburn after helping Barrow to the National League title as a loan player two seasons ago.

Jason Taylor and Mike Jones add experience in a similar position to White, with Ollie Banks a more aggressive passer and Jamie Devitt capable in a more advanced role.

Australian Tom Beadling adds another option in defence or midfield, and Josh Kay has stood out at times on the left flank or up front.

The frontline now includes Carlisle’s Offrande Zanzala and Walsall’s Josh Gordon, with Dimitri Sea and Luke James still present. Scott Quigley, a very complete striker and Barrow’s top scorer last season, has dropped down a division to Stockport and leaves a hole that someone like Zanzala may be able to fill, but may also not.

The loss of Quigley could be what holds the Cumbrian side back this season. The squad is certainly better than 2020-21, and the manager carries good experience at this level, but there may be more needed in forward areas before this team can probably challenge towards the top of League Two. An improvement on last season’s finish is certainly expected though.

Right-sided defender Michael Harriman, centre-back Fraser Horsfall and left-sided players Joseph Mills, who has shown to be capable of dominating the flank at League Two whilst with Forest Green, are the only senior defenders left from last season in League One. Kilmarnock’s Aaron McGowan, Livingston’s Jon Guthrie, Bristol Rovers’ Ali Koiki and Tranmere’s Sid Nelson are summer arrivals into the defensive unit.

17. HARROGATE (33/1 BET365) Harrogate under the Weavers have made progression for years. Having fully established themselves as a Football League outfit last season, Town will be keen to improve on a 17th-place finish. That could be a tall order though with the quality of teams elsewhere.

Midfield still includes Jack Sowerby, Shaun McWilliams, young Scott Pollock and the incredibly versatile Sam Hoskins from 202021. Hull City loanee Jordan Flores is a central arrival, as is Tranmere’s Paul Lewis who can play in a variety of positions but may be best in role similar to what Ryan Watson played last season.

Southend’s Mark Oxley can be a decent goalkeeper at this level and joins Joe Cracknell in the senior stopper unit. Defence in front of them still includes Will Smith, Connor Hall, Ryan Fallowfield and Warren Burrell. The latter two were an impressive pair of dynamic full-backs last season, with Burrell capable across the entire backline.

The former Exeter pair of left-back Lewis Page and centre-back Rory McArdle add quality and experience to the backline.

Midfield has seen the addition of Wycombe’s Alex Pattison alongside Fleetwood’s deeperlying Nathan Sheron, and still includes both the creative output of George Thomson and the diminutive Josh Falkingham. Lloyd Kerry and young Irishman Simon Power could be more likely to feature in wide positions, with Thomson capable out there as well.

Salford’s Luke Armstrong is a new forward addition, with the arrival of Maidenhead’s 19goal man Danilo Orsi potentially one to watch.

Exciting young talent Caleb Chukwuemeka may well not be at the Cobblers for much longer.

Forwards Benny Ashley-Seal and Danny Rose still remain from last season however and are joined by the Kilmarnock pair of Nicke Kabamba and Mitch Pinnock, as well as winger Dylan Connolly who heads back to English football from St Mirren. Kion Etete is a loan addition from Tottenham Hotspur

There’s a lot to like about Simon Weaver’s side. They have shown to be more than competent at this level and can play an attractive, fluid style of play when allowed to. If they are to do anything truly special in 2020-21, it’s likely to happen under the radar.

Harrogate Town certainly don’t mind being the underdogs though.

This isn’t the same physically dominant Northampton that Keith Curle guided to promotion two seasons ago; things look different now both on and off the pitch. There are certainly still some players who can hurt other teams, but it may be a tall ask this season to immediately challenge for a return to the third tier.

Harrogate’s frontline contained an underrated pair of players last season, and both are still at the club. Aaron Martin was the league’s dominant aerial presence, and the more fluid Jack Muldoon often combined with him well as either a winger or fellow striker.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 81

19. OLDHAM (40/1 BETVICTOR)

21. ROCHDALE (25/1 BETFRED)

Such has been the long-term decline of Oldham that fans’ memorable moments in recent times have been restricted to individual games rather than over an entire campaign. For all that Keith Curle is hoping to build in terms of a competitive squad, familiar off-field issues are still likely to hold the Latics back in 2021-22.

Following relegation from League One, Rochdale have seen significant changes away from the pitch. The current lack of additions into the matchday squad however could leave the Dale in a very concerning position, especially if they are to lose any more of their current crop.

Twenty-eight-year-old Jay Lynch looks likely to be the starting goalkeeper at current.

The defensive unit in front of him is small on numbers, and very much helped by a few extremely versatile players present within the squad.

Jayson Leutwiler from Huddersfield is the only senior goalkeeper at current. The defence in front of him can now consist of the former of the Scunthorpe pair of Jordan Clarke and Harrison McGahey, alongside leftsided creator Sam Hart from Southend.

Carl Piergianni could be McGahey’s centreback partner in a back four, with a number of players also capable in defensive positions including Dylan Fage, Andrea Badan, Raphaël Diarra and Kyle Jameson. Alan Sheehan has joined as a first team coach but is still also registered as a player.

Fage, Badan and Diarra are known to be capable in midfield or winger roles, if necessary, with the more natural central players being Callum Whelan and the more attack-minded Davis Keillor-Dunn. Thirtyfour-year-old Nicky Adams can play in a variety of positions on either flank, with a right-wing-back and right-back role common for him last season.

Oldham’s star if he stays could well be Dylan Bahamboula. The 26-year-old is a Congo International who can play out wide or in attacking midfield, renowned for his skill on the ball and ability to play a part in spectacular goals. You dare not take your eyes off him when he’s playing.

Zach Dearnley is an extremely talented player who may unfortunately never get to flourish fully because of persistent injury, and that could lead to Oldham looking to Swindon’s Hallam Hope to provide attacking influence, especially if Bahamboula heads elsewhere.

20. SUTTON UTD (18/1) The EFL newcomers can take inspiration from history at this level. No team promoted into the Football League has ever gone straight back down.

Matt Gray’s side enter their maiden campaign with Australian stopper Dean Bouzanis still their number one. Right-back Jonathan Barden, left-back Ben Wyatt and centre-back Louis John all played their part in the Amber and Chocolates National League title win last season.

Rob Milsom is a left-sided option who can also play in midfield, whilst right-sided defender Joe Kizzi is a new arrival from Bromley.

Midfielders Kenny Davis, Harry Beautyman, long-serving Craig Eastmond, and young Adam Lovatt remain from 2020-21, with another new arrival coming in the form of Altrincham’s Alistair Smith who was with his boyhood club Mansfield this time last year.

The majority of Sutton’s recruitment so far has come in forward areas.

Northampton forward Ricky Karboa is still relatively new to EFL football, though 30-year-old Richie Bennett from Stockport has a lot more knowhow, albeit without having that many goals across his career so far.

Donovan Wilson, who scored seven for the National League champions last season, has made a permanent move to Sutton from Bath City, and Dutch winger Enzio Boldewijn arrives after three years at Notts County. Will Randall, David Ajiboye, Omar Bugiel and Tobi Sho-Silva remain from last season.

Sutton will not be expected to rip up many trees in League Two this season but should rightly be applauded for their journey to a level they’re experiencing for the first time. The first priority for promoted clubs is maintaining your status in a new division, and Gray’s group should be capable of doing that.

82 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Eoghan O’Connell and Jimmy McNulty are natural centre-back options, as are Joe Dunne, Sheffield United acquisition Sam Graham and former Manchester United man Max Taylor.

Matt Done can play anywhere up the leftflank, with Oliver Rathbone an auxiliary leftback option and Jimmy Keohane capable at right-back.

Both Rathbone and Keohane can be considered more natural midfielders though, as are the young pair of Conor Grant and Aaron Morley, with the latter having a notable campaign despite Rochdale’s relegation last season.

Low numbers could see one of young Ethan Brierley or Kacper Mialkowski find gametime, whilst Northern Irishman Stephen Dooley is a much more senior option on either flank.

Following the departures of bright prospect Kwadwo Baah to Watford and Stephen Humphrys to Wigan, Rochdale’s frontline only contains 24-year-old Jake Beesley, 25-year-old Alex Newby and 21-year-old Abraham Odoh.

A pair of Beesley and Newby could perhaps find the goals to keep Rochdale out of serious trouble, but things could still end up being difficult for Robbie Stockdale’s side if the squad remains in the shape it currently is in.

Dale will be thankful to having some very versatile players within their squad to cover positions where necessary but may also have to rely on youngsters emerging as competent League Two players over the next year.

23. HARTLEPOOL (40/1 BET365)

24. SWINDON (33/1 BETVICTOR)

The drama of a viral stoppage-time equaliser ultimately didn’t stop Hartlepool from earning a return to the Football League after four seasons away. Dave Challinor currently has a relatively small squad at his disposal though, and that could make the season a lot trickier for Pools than they’d ideally like it to be.

22. SCUNTHORPE (66/1 S INDEX) Scunthorpe endured a miserable end to the 2020-21 season, and with a number of influential players now elsewhere, the current campaign could easily be as difficult.

Rory Watson or young Coventry loanee Tom Billson are the prime candidates for the goalkeeper position, and the backline in front does contain some notable upcoming players in right-sided defender Jai Rowe and versatile Irish full-back Mason O’Malley, a very bright prospect.

Left-sided defender George Taft adds more experience and fellow centre-back Manny Onariase looked a decent acquisition last season. New arrivals include Morecambe’s Harry Davis, Kilmarnock right-back Ross Millen and young Blackburn left-back Lewis Thompson.

Twenty-five-year-old Ben Killip remains Hartlepool’s senior goalkeeper, with the defence in front of him still containing leftsided players David Ferguson and Zaine Francis-Angol, right-back Jamie Sterry, young centre-back Timi Odusina, defender/ midfielder Gary Liddle and former Harrogate man Jake Lawlor Halifax’s Neill Byrne is a new arrival in the centre-back position, whilst Accrington’s Reagan Ogle can play at full-back on either side. Both signings have just a handful of EFL appearances, however.

Things look healthier in midfield with Nicky Featherstone, Mark Shelton, Gavan Holohan, Josh MacDonald, Luke Molyneux and young Tom Crawford all present. Holohan, Molyneux and MacDonald are perhaps more capable out wide and in more advanced positions whilst Shelton can also operate in a right-back role.

Martin Smith is a new midfield addition from Chesterfield who has more EFL appearances than Byrne or Ogle but still a relatively low number.

Another ex-Morecambe player in Alex Kenyon could provide some vital solidity to a midfield unit that contains the young Alfie Beestin, Jordan Hallam, Tom Pugh and Wigan’s Alex Perry.

Twenty-one -year-old Middlesbrough striker Tyrone O’Neill and 28-year-old Harry Bunn, who five years ago was a Championship regular at Huddersfield, are forward acquisitions.

Replacing those lost during the summer is not a simple task for Scunthorpe and given the poor form and morale that brought last season to an end, there is a worry that such form could see them dragged into a relegation battle all-season long.

The decision to appoint Ben Garner, who had an ultimately unsuccessful 11-month spell as Bristol Rovers manager, could be seen as uninspiring for a club looking to fight against the odds in 2021-22.

Garner currently though does have two decent goalkeepers at his disposal in Jojo Wollacott and Lewis Ward. Defence in front of them remains limited in number, but all of Dion Conroy, Mathieu Baudry, Ellis Iandolo, Akin Odimayo and Rob Hunt can operate in more than one position along the backline or slightly further forwards.

The relative inexperience of the midfield could well force Neil Cox into using more natural players in central positions, as we saw at times with Devarn Green and Myles Hippolyte last season.

The potential saviour for Scunthorpe could well be Ryan Loft, a 23-year-old striker with a decent level of all-around game and the Iron’s top scorer last season. Alternative forward options in Aaron Jarvis, Harry Jessop and Kenan DünnwaldTuran are younger or not seen as being at the same level, further increasing the possible reliance on Loft for attacking influence.

Fans of Swindon have been able to celebrate a long-awaited change of ownership, with Australian Clem Morfuni now in control of the Wiltshire club. There is an awful lot that needs to be done however to grow a threadbare squad, and not very long at all to get it ready for a new season.

It’s up front where Hartlepool are looking noticeably bare. Aside from 18-year-old striker Joe Grey, Hartlepool have the new arrival of Scunthorpe’s Olufela Olomola, a player whose best season came on loan at Yeovil Town from Southampton back in 2017-18. The signing of 29-year-old Mark Cullen could therefore prove crucial.

Deemed surplus to requirements at the Iron, relying on him for the Hartlepool goals is a risk.

No team has ever been relegated straight back down to non-league in the modern era after coming up, but there could be concerns that Hartlepool buck that trend.

Jordan Lyden is a senior option in deeper midfield and Jack Payne is a more advanced, attacking option in central areas. The signing of former County Ground man Ben Gladwin from Milton Keynes Dons could prove to be a good one but won’t solve all the squad’s issues on his own.

At present, Swindon Town have young strikers Harry Parsons and Ipswich loanee Tyreece Simpson as their forward options, with Jack Payne also able to operate up top as an auxiliary striker.

The arrival of a new owner is fantastic news for Town and the sign of a bright future for the Wiltshire club. It’s vitally important though that all attention is focused on the next month, as with just 12 senior contracted players and a largely unproven manager at the helm, 2021-22 could be a very difficult campaign for the Robins.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 83

Lewis Blain @lewisblainsport

ENGLISH

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NON-LEAGUE lover and seasoned National League aficionado Lewis Blain (@lewisblainsport) runs the rule over the fifth-tier ahead of the 2021/22 campaign.

It’s that time of the year.

We’re now just days away from football returning to action and for many Euro 2020 heartbreak will still be fresh in the mind.

But with the country heading towards sort of normality, there is plenty to be excited about, especially with supporters allowed back in grounds around the country.

Non-league football has been hit hard over the past 18 months or so, though it appears as not every side has suffered financially with some well-backed teams heading the front of the market.

Wrexham, who are now owned by movie stars Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, and sleeping giants Stockport County are both around 4/1 to 5/1 to win the title this season.

They’re closely followed by a plethora of former Football League mainstays, namely Notts County, Chesterfield, Southend and Grimsby Town.

But who are we backing to grab the crown?

FADE THE FAVES I think Stockport are the team to beat this year. Anyone who finishes above the Hatters should win the division. But considering their odds, I’m happy to fade County and look for more value further down the betting.

Wrexham are very worthy contenders too, but for me, they may just fall short.

Phil Parkinson, a manager who has won many a promotion in the EFL has taken charge. He’s never coached at this level and that could be the one negative from getting them up at the first time of asking.

the league for much of the season, it’ll be interesting to see if they have enough in the tank to go again.

Similarly, Notts County should be there or there abouts once more – as should Chesterfield, who are my first outright angle of attack at 10/1 (Bet365).

SPIREITES CAN SHINE When former Aldershot Town assistant James Rowe took over at Chesterfield in November 2020, the Spireites were in 22nd (second-bottom). By the end of the campaign, the youthful coach had steered them the Derbyshire outfit into the play-offs.

Rowe has the contacts to produce a very solid squad and that’s already been seen by Chesterfield nabbing prolific non-league marksman Danny Rowe from Bradford City back in April. A name that, along with many others in this squad, knows what it’s like to play in this league.

You often need experience in non-league to get out of the division and that’s what could hold them back this year, despite the statement signing of League Two Player of the Season, Paul Mullin.

Manny Oyeleke was another bold acquisition at the same time from Port Vale, whilst they have been joined by names like Stefan Payne, Scott Loach, Jamie Grimes, Jeff King and Calvin Miller. Adding to an alreadyestablished squad, led at the back by Harry Maguire’s brother, Lawrence, Alex Whittle, Curtis Weston and many more.

Last season’s play-off finalists Torquay United have seen quite the revolving door of incomings and outgoings, and after leading

The 38-year-old head coach Rowe has also changed the attitude off the pitch by instilling a winning culture around the Technique

84 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Stadium, ensuring no stone is left unturned when it comes to data and statistics, with each and every player on a strict individual programme tailored to get the best out of them.

With three places on offer for each-way backers, I make Chesterfield the best value towards the front of the betting.

If we’re backing the Wood to go well this season, then Tshimanga will be integral to it all. And as we’ve seen in the previous two seasons, he can find the net with ease.

Should Boreham Wood keep hold of Tshimanga past January, then he looks fantastic value.

ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS There are plenty of intriguing options rated over 20/1, including Solihull Moors, who are spearheaded by former Salford talisman Adam Rooney, and another side who made the play-offs last season, Bromley.

However, I’ll take a punt on Boreham Wood at 50/1 (Bet365). At present, Luke Garrard seems to have a threadbare squad but they have made some very impressive moves in the market this summer.

The Wood have clinched goalscoring midfielder Josh Rees from Aldershot and Chesterfield’s captain Will Evans, along with Bromley stalwart Frankie Raymond. These are three players to add to an already solid squad.

14th last term is nothing to shout home about but a season earlier, Boreham Wood made the play-offs in fifth place – the second time that has happened under Garrard. In 2017/18, they were defeated in the final by Tranmere Rovers.

“IT SEEMS AS IF THE STRIKER - DUBBED THE ‘NEW JAMIE VARDY’ - WILL REMAIN AT THE CLUB”

during their play-off run in 2019/20, once again finishing runner-up behind promoted Barrow striker Scott Quigley.

Kabongo Tshimanga is capable of racking up the goals once again, and it seems as if the striker – dubbed the ‘new Jamie Vardy’ – will remain at the club despite interest from Notts County and the EFL.

Another name who has regularly found himself at the top of the goalscoring charts across the past two seasons is John Rooney, Wayne’s brother. He may be an attacking midfielder but he will be a crucial source of goals for Stockport, one of the division’s favourites.

An 18-goal tally for Barrow in 2019/20 was followed up by another 16 goals last term.

Rooney can take a mean free-kick and is often on penalty duty, so that’s why he’s often amongst the goals. At 25/1, with four places each-way, he makes for a tasty option alongside Tshimanga.

BEST BETS CHESTERFIELD TO WIN OUTRIGHT 10/1 ew Bet365 BOREHAM WOOD TO WIN OUTRIGHT 50/1 ew Bet365

GOAL MACHINES FOR THE GOLDEN BOOT? That leads us nicely into the contenders for the Top Goalscorer gong, where the Boreham Wood striker has to be backed at 40/1 (Bet365). Despite their struggles in mid-table, the former MK Dons graduate ended the campaign in second place with 19 goals, just four behind Michael Cheek.

Six of these attempts were from the penalty spot, which isn’t a bad thing at all.

JOHN ROONEY TO BE TOP SCORER 25/1 ew Bet365 KABONGO THSIMANGA TO BE TOP SCORER 40/1 ew Bet365

The 24-year-old also found the net 19 times WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 85

Kevin Hatchard @KevinHatchard

ESTEEMED Bundesliga commentator, pundit and presenter Kevin Hatchard analyses the odds ahead of the 2021/22 renewal, providing his expert views on the German topflight’s major markets.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

GERMAN

BUNDESLIGA

Bayern Munich have a new coach and a new-look central defence, but remain the odds-on favourites to lift the Bundesliga title. If the record champions do win the coveted meisterschale, it will be an unprecedented tenth consecutive German title.

Boyhood Bayern fan Julian Nagelsmann has arrived in Bavaria from RB Leipzig to replace Hansi Flick as head coach, and although the 34-year-old has a deserved reputation as one of the sport’s most astute tactical minds, he needs to start winning trophies if he is to win over the sceptics.

Nagelsmann will be joined by a familiar ally at Säbener Strasse, as French centre-back Dayot Upamecano has also moved from Leipzig to Bayern.

Like his coach, Upamecano is a favourite of analysts and Bundesliga afficionados, but his high-profile failures on the Champions League stage mean he is yet to achieve wide acclaim. Stepping into the void left by club legend David Alaba’s move to Real Madrid is a daunting challenge.

Concerns persist about the depth of Bayern’s squad, but their starting XI remains the best in Germany. Manuel Neuer is the league’s premier goalkeeper, Alphonso Davies and Benjamin Pavard are fine modern full-backs, while Joshua Kimmich’s midfield partnership with Leon Goretzka is one of the best in Europe.

Thomas Müller has delivered 19 goals and 39 assists across the last two Bundesliga campaigns, Jamal Musiala is a truly exciting prospect who is quickly improving, and Robert Lewandowski has just broken a record that looked virtually impossible to smash.

To score 41 goals in a 34-game Bundesliga season, eclipsing the great Gerd Müller, is an achievement for the ages.

Silva from Eintracht Frankfurt. Rather than being a youngster to develop, the 25-year-old is already the finished product, a player who banged in 28 league goals last term.

Leipzig’s top scorer in the league last term was Marcel Sabitzer (eight goals), and he took penalties and free-kicks. Having a genuine focal point in attack for the likes of Dominik Szoboszlai, Dani Olmo and Christopher Nkunku to buzz around could be critically important if Leipzig are to turn draws into wins.

Leipzig have tried to mitigate the departure of Dayot Upamecano by recruiting young defenders Josko Gvardiol and Mohamed Simakan, and the retention of goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi is a big plus. Jesse Marsch is Nagelsmann’s replacement - he was previously an assistant coach with the Red Bulls, and excelled during a spell in charge of Salzburg.

Leipzig are a best-price 16/1 to win the league with Bet365, and that’s a value bet, especially if Die Roten Bullen make a strong start. They face Bayern at home on Matchday Four, and apart from an MD3 trip to Wolfsburg, their schedule across the first couple of months is pretty kind.

In three of Bayern’s first four away games, they go to Borussia Mönchengladbach, Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen. There’s no point backing Bayern at 1/5 before the season starts, because that price really could inflate after the first few weeks.

DORTMUND DISMISSED AT THE PRICES

LEIPZIG THE LIKELIEST CHALLENGERS I suspect Bayern’s biggest challenge will come from RB Leipzig, who have the depth and attacking quality to give their old boss a run for his money. They have slightly departed from club policy to go out and grab Andre

86 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Borussia Dortmund have been installed as second-favourites, but it’s difficult to know exactly how they’ll fare early on in new boss Marco Rose’s tenure.

Rose has replaced popular cup-winning

coach Edin Terzic, which makes for an awkward entrance (Terzic is still at the club as Technical Director), and his bright reputation has been slightly tarnished by a poor run of results at the end of his time at Borussia Mönchengladbach.

I expect BVB to retain star striker Erling Haaland (although Chelsea are pushing hard to sign him), but the loss of Jadon Sancho to Manchester United is a huge blow.

Dortmund have upgraded their goalkeeping department by signing Gregor Kobel from Stuttgart, but questions remain about their defensive solidity, with 46 goals leaked in 34 games last term.

Youngsters like winger Ansgar Knauff and striking prodigy Youssoufa Moukoko should get more game time, but Leipzig currently seem better placed to end Bayern’s dominance. A quote of 7/1 for BVB to win the league seems a bit short, even after the arrival of exciting Dutch speedster Donyell Malen, who is effectively Sancho’s replacement. No pressure, Donyell.

THE SCRAP TO SEAL A TOP-FOUR FINISH

“I Suspect Bayern’s biggest challenge will come from RB Leipzig, who have the depth and attacking quality to give their old boss a run for his money”

When it comes to the Top-Four market, Bayern and Leipzig will take two of the spots, and if Haaland stays fit, Dortmund should claim another. That probably makes the battle for fourth a fight between Bayer Leverkusen, Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg have lost coach Oliver Glasner to Eintracht Frankfurt, which is a major blow, and their squad could be stretched by their Champions League commitments.

Bayer Leverkusen have a new boss, with former Young Boys coach Gerardo Seoane making a long-anticipated switch to the Bundesliga. Die Werkself have signed highlyrated centre-back Odilon Koussounou, and his partnership with Edmond Tapsoba could prove very exciting.

Striker Patrik Schick should be full of confidence after an excellent Euro 2020, and it feels like lightning-fast winger Moussa Diaby could be set for a breakout season.

Bayer’s main threat for the final UCL place usually comes from Gladbach, and that’s probably the case again. The Foals are now coached by Adi Hütter, who took Frankfurt to the Europa League semi-finals a couple of

seasons ago and led them to fifth last term.

There is plenty of talent at Borussia Park, but there are question marks over several star players. Centre-back Matthias Ginter, striker Alassane Plea and midfielder Denis Zakaria have all been linked with moves away from the club.

Leverkusen are 13/10 with William Hill to seal a Top-Four Finish, and that feels like the most sensible play.

BIELEFELD BACKED FOR THE DROP I can’t see the Top Goalscorer coming from outside Lewandowski, Silva and Haaland, and all three will be the focal points of their teams’ respective attacks.

Given that he just bashed in 41 league goals in one season, Lewandowski will be a fair favourite.

At time of writing, there is no relegation market in place, but when there is, keep an eye on Arminia Bielefeld.

Star player Ritsu Doan has returned to parent club PSV, and although I like new signing Janni Serra, the former Holstein Kiel striker is unproven at this level.

I’m just not sure where the goals are going to come from, and Bielefeld don’t have the funds to make significant reinforcements.

BEST BETS RB LEIPZIG TO WIN OUTRIGHT 16/1 BET365 BAYER LEVERKUSEN FOR A TOP-FOUR FINISH 13/10 WILLIAM HILL

ARMINIA BIELEFELD TO BE RELEGATED 5/2 UNIBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 87

Brendy Boyle @BrendyBoyle

LA LIGA obsessive and Spanish resident Brendy Boyle (@ BrendyBoyle) shares his views on the 2021/22 campaign, picking out his favourite fancies.

Uncertainty continues to haunt all aspects of Spanish daily life right now, but there is one thing we can be sure of as we look ahead to the new season in La Liga: four teams can genuinely win the league.

While the odds suggest that the Big Three are more evenly matched than ever, last season revealed a new challenger, one that merits more respect than currently being afforded by bookmakers.

SEVILLA MERIT REAL RESPECT

SPANISH

LA LIGA

An outstanding run of 22 out of a possible 24 points between last March and April catapulted Sevilla right into contention as Atletico Madrid wobbled, Real Madrid stumbled, and Barcelona somehow managed to hold on for as long as they did.

Sporting director Monchi and his trusted man at the helm Julen Lopetegui have built a serious unit, injecting much needed steel and mental toughness. The Andalusians also went from being a laughing stock away from the Sánchez Pizjuán to one of best teams on the road in the league.

Sevilla have added serious competition to the goalkeeping department with the arrival of Marko Dmitrović from Eibar; it looks like the outstanding young central defender Joules Kounde will stay another season, and their solid midfield should be all the stronger for Papu Gomez getting a full pre-season under his belt.

Monchi, meanwhile, is understood to be actively seeking an upgrade on the overall disappointing Luuk De Jong in attack. With two outstanding goalkeepers, Koundé, Diego Carlos, Joan Jordan, Ivan Rakitic, and Lucas Ocampos already in tow, Los Nervionenses have the consistency and hunger to go all the way.

Sevilla are also fortunate that European heavyweights lack the finances to pick off key assets a la Bayern Munich and Juventus. They look in great nick.

Things are less tranquil up in Catalonia, 88 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

however. The Camp Nou now resembles a Sunday flea market where everything and everyone has a price - e xcept for the man who they cannot yet re-sign: Lionel Messi.

Barcelona are a club in disarray, and the current re-structuring will almost certainly have an adverse effect on the pitch for years to come. How could anyone have any confidence in a team that has asked key players to take pay cuts while, at the same time, trying to juggle free transfers and bargain-basement sales?

Things aren’t much better at Real Madrid either. Carlo Ancelotti has re-inherited a squad with many familiar faces and therein lies the problem. Los Blancos still depend on the same core of players: Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Casemiro, and Karim Benzema.

While Marca continues to keep up appearances by linking Madrid to Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland, the reality is Real haven’t two pesetas to rub together.

The re-modelling of the Bernabéu continues to devour any spare change so it will be up to the likes of Bosman-signing David Alaba and the returning Martin Odegaard to inject muchneeded vigour into a team that just looks a bit all over the place, even more so following the departure of Sergio Ramos.

Marcelo has been named captain this season - the same Marcelo who ordinarily wouldn’t be near a team serious about competing at the very top level. Like Barcelona, so many questions hang over Real Madrid so there isn’t enough substance to suggest they have what it takes to go the distance.

ATLETI STILL THE TEAM TO BEAT This all leads us to the defending champs and, for my money, title favourites: Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid.

If, this time last year, you told me Atleti were to be crowned eventual winners, I would have said “piss off!” followed by “Boy, Joao Félix must have come good.” But he didn’t - a

€127m record signing was nothing more than a bit-part player in a team driven forward by the core of Luis Suarez, Marcos Llorente, Koke, Stefan Savic and Jan Oblak.

“Barcelona are a club in disarray, and the current re-structuring will almost certainly have an adverse effect on the pitch for years to come. ”

in the Primera two seasons ago.

The likes of Osasuna and Cadiz will enjoy a serious jolt of energy with the return of their particularly fervent support, and they should be two to keep in-mind when scanning the weekend dockets.

Rodrigo de Paul looks an extremely shrewd bit of business with those ‘in the know’ confident that he will add a new dimension of “verticality” to Simeone’s engine room.

Granada look particularly vulnerable following the departure of miracle-worker Diego Martinez, while the jury is still out on new boss Robert Moreno, who lasted little more than six months at Monaco after all that drama with Luis Enrique.

But this is a group with a nice blend of legs and lungs, plus know-how in the right areas, and it really feels like, at last, Simeone has found Cholo 2.0 after five or six years of trial and error. And if Felix can replicate Antoine Griezmann and really make the leap in his third season, it would be hard to imagine Atleti not being right up there once again come May.

Rayo Vallecano should be the weakest team in the league but have a brilliant manager in Andoni Iraola and I’m never comfortable opposing this jack-in-the-box club, so I will go with Elche as my other pick for the drop – after all, it was a revelation they survived last time around.

The return of fans will be a massive boost, particularly to both Atleti and Sevilla, and I would be in no way shocked if Barca and Madrid were to finish outside the top-two for first time since the 2001/02 season (Valencia and Deportivo La Coruna).

So, I am going for a team in red and white to go all the way – Atletico Madrid can be backed to successfully defend their title, whilst Sevilla are worth an interest with an each-way ticket.

Beyond the top-four Beyond the top-four, it again looks difficult to find a huge difference between the chasers.

While Villarreal, Betis and Real Sociedad look the best of the rest, we should expect another strong effort from Celta Vigo - Argentine coach Eduardo Coudet is doing a phenomenal job in Galicia.

BATTLE TO AVOID THE DROP The battle to avoid relegation will be gruelling and you could make a case for almost a dozen teams. Personality-wise, Jose Bordalas at Valencia has disaster written all over it; Espanyol should comfortably stay up upon their return; and you would expect Mallorca to have learned a lot from their previous stint

BEST BETS ATLETICO TO WIN OUTRIGHT 4/1 UNIBET SEVILLA TO WIN OUTRIGHT 20/1 e/w BETFAIR SEVILLA FOR A TOP-FOUR FINISH 5/4 WILLIAM HILL

GRANADA TO BE RELEGATED 5/1 UNIBET ELCHE TO BE RELEGATED 17/20 UNIBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 89

Marco Di Cosmo @Scioltz

SERIE A judge and Rome native Marco Di Cosmo (@Scioltz) shares his views on the 2021/22 campaign, picking out his favourite five fancies.

If you have been following Serie A over the last five years, you will undoubtedly have been impressed by Atalanta’s performances. La Dea have posted a third-place finish in each of the past three seasons and only surrendered to two late PSG goals in the 2020 Champions League quarterfinal.

ATALANTA TO WIN SERIE A

ITALIAN

SERIE A

The Bergamo boys continue to sell their best players - in recent years, Atalanta have sold the likes of Dejan Kulusevski, Gianluca Mancini, Papu Gomez, Brian Cristante, and Franck Kessie (among many others) to big clubs but Gian Piero Gasperini’s hasn’t allowed the departure of key names impact upon the team’s performances and results.

This term, La Dea have sent goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini to Tottenham, but replaced the stopper immediately with Juan Musso, a very decent option. Josip Ilicic’s future is still questionable, but should they keep the Slovenian ace, and Cristiano Romero at the back, I believe they will be a serious contender with just a couple of minor additions to the team.

Plus, two new starters have emerged in the team from last season: Joakim Mæhle, who made his mark in the Danish team at Euro 2020, and is now a reliable wing-back, as well as Matteo Pessina, who also impressed with the Italian squad this summer.

Moreover, it is hard to identify a clear dominant challenge from elsewhere. Defending champions Inter have lost Antonio Conte and Achraf Hakimi, two enormous factors in their title triumph. Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku’s future is in-doubt and Christian Eriksen unfortunately ruled out for the foreseeable, making the Nerazzurri an unattractive option at the odds.

Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku is a doubt and Christian Eriksen unfortunately ruled out for the foreseeable, making the Nerazzurri an

90 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

unattractive option at the odds.

Juventus have brought back former coach with Max Allegri, which is a great move, but their squad is nowhere near the same level of previous years. The Old Lady’s midfield is still lacking in quality, Cristiano Ronaldo will turn 37 in February, and no central striker seems to be able to carry the load for the Turin giants outside of CR7.

Napoli was among my favorites this term but their transfer window has been too quiet to improve upon their fifth-placed finish.

Luciano Spalletti is a big coach, but has lost some of his magic touch in recent years.

His run with Roma in the early 2000s was fantastic, and he will surely deliver a top-four position, although I doubt he can compete for top spot.

If these are the front-runners, the rest of the group is not that far away, but not close enough.

Milan have played above their level for more than a year. Hence, it is difficult to say the Rossoneri will be competitive again, especially when losing lose Gigio Donnarumma for free, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic is turning 40 in the autumn.

Elsewhere, Roma and Lazio will perform better than 2020/21 with two great coaches (Jose Mourinho and Maurizio Sarri, respectively), but the race to the title seems too big a step if you look at the capital duos rosters.

With no clear favorites for, I see Atalanta (8/1 SkyBet) as a very good investment as a dark horse for Serie A glory.

LAZIO TO FINISH IN THE TOP-FOUR Lazio can be the fun team to follow in Italy

this season. The appointment of Maurizio Sarri is a key message to this squad, that the club’s hierarchy are keen to play attractive, front-foot football, and the early acquisition of Felipe Anderson underlines those intentions.

The Brazilian winger rarely impressed in his West Ham days, but was an absolute topclass performer during his previous stint in Rome. Overall, Lazio’s midfield is quality with Luis Alberto and Sergej Milinkovic Savic playing together, and I just can’t see a better duo in all of Serie A this season, they’re that good.

That is why I am backing on Lazio to get the better of Milan in the race for a top-four finish (21/10 Betfair).

The Rossoneri will be back in Champions League action after several years, where they have no chance to win outright, but I’m sure they will try to recall their glorious old days in the competition.

Doing so will take plenty out of Milan’s energy reserves and surely have a knock-on effect in the race for the top-four. Lazio might be involved in the Europe Lea

“Should Lazio keep the current squad together, I cannot imagine anything other than tons of chances for their main striker, Ciro Immobile.”

gue but the Biancocelesti will focus much of their effort on Serie A, as is Sarri’s style.

duty to contend with, Romelu Lukaku is an obvious threat if he stays in Italy and is likely to be Immobile’s main challenger.

However, the rest of the pack don’t offer the same sort of betting value as the 11/1 available on our Lazio man.

SALERNITANA TO BE RELEGATED Salernitana are living a nightmare after their dream Serie A return following a 23-year wait for top-flight football. The club is owned by Claudio Lotito - Lazio’s president - and the Italian league rules do not allow any owner to lead more than one club in the same league.

The newcomers have now found a way through a blind trust, but I don’t see their position being anywhere near as solid as it should be for a newly-promoted club.

Their supporters are magic, but their squad is not comparable to low Serie A standards, and I am expecting Salernitana to be back in Serie B next season.

If possible, look to combine Salernitana with Venezia to be relegated.

BEST BETS

CIRO IMMOBILE TO BE TOP GOALSCORER If Lazio do start with the exciting combination of Milinkovic Savic and Luis Alberto in midfield, their forwardline also possess more star quality with Joaquin Correa and, as already mentioned Felipe Anderson, acting as creative wingers.

Should Lazio keep the current squad together, I cannot imagine anything other than tons of chances for their main striker, Ciro Immobile.

The Italian international is not a world-class player, but domestic action is his comfort zone. He proved to be a solid number nine, with 123 goals in 177 matches in his five Lazio seasons, with no striker returning a better tally in recent Serie A years.

In terms of rivals for the crown, Cristiano Ronaldo could play a reduced number of games, especially with Champions League

ATALANTA TO WIN SERIE A 8/1 WILLIAM HILL LAZIO FOR A TOP-FOUR FINISH 21/10 BETFAIR

IMMOBILE TO BE TOP SCORER 11/1 UNIBET SALERNITANA TO BE RELEGATED 8/11 BETFAIR

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 91

Tom Love @TomLove_18

FRENCH football fanatic and Ligue 1 judge Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his views on the 2021/22 campaign, picking out his favourite fancies.

The cycle has been broken. Prior to last season, Paris Saint-Germain had only failed to lift the Ligue 1 trophy once since 2013, and that was to a very strong Monaco outfit.

FRENCH

LIGUE 1

Few could have envisaged Lille romping the division as they did in 2020/21. Les Dogues were so solid, and so consistent, they simply proved too tough a nut to crack for many opponents – it was their steely defensive resolve that ultimately won the north-east club the title.

Fellow top-four finishers PSG, Monaco and Lyon all scored a fair few more than LOSC but none could match the 0.60 goals conceded per-game that the champions put up.

Despite that excellent campaign, there’s now a more pessimistic vibe around Lille with head honcho Christophe Galtier pinched by Nice, as well as goalkeeper Mike Maignan and midfield maestro Boubakary Soumare upping sticks to Milan and Leicester respectively.

With divisional rivals making major moves in the transfer market, there are fears Les Dogues could left behind. However, their recent victory over PSG in the Trophee des Champions will give the defending champs a boost going into the campaign.

Talking of PSG, the capital club had plenty of absentees for that match but when Mauricio Pochettino gets his first XI together they look seriously hard to stop.

Euro 2020 Player of the Tournament Gianluigi Donnarumma joins on a free from Milan, one of, if not the best young keepers in the world.

Sergio Ramos brings a wealth of experience and winning mentality, even if he is getting towards the twilight of his career. Achraf Hakimi offers a superb option on the righthand side with his pace and quality, whilst Gini

92 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Wijnaldum adds a different dimension to their midfield.

Les Parisiens have kept hold of key men Neymar, Marco Verratti and Kylian Mbappe too, suggesting their best price of 2/9 (Sporting Index) is a fair reflection on their squad relative to the rest of the division.

THE TOP-FOUR BATTLE It’s the battle for Champions League places that will be really interesting to follow in Ligue 1.

Likely lads Lyon, Marseille and Monaco would expect to be in the running - the former have appointed Peter Bosz as manager, and I have to say, I’m yet to be convinced.

It’s hard to judge a manager on their efforts for Ajax, given their dominance in the Eredivisie, but an ill-fated spell at Dortmund and then a pretty average showing at Leverkusen showed he couldn’t get the most out of plentiful resources.

Meanwhile, Lyon have lost top scorer and talisman Memphis Depay this summer too that’s a huge blow to Les Gones as the Dutch star contributed 20 goals and 12 assists - an almost impossible feat for the club to try and replicate and a direct replacement is not yet in the door.

Defensively, there have always been question marks over this OL side - It wouldn’t be a massive surprise if they dropped out of the European places entirely and 5/6 quotes on a Top Three Finish still look short.

It’s been a tough few years for Marseille, but they look to have more of an identity under enigmatic boss Jorge Sampaoli. OM may have lost Florian Thauvin but his output was

waning slightly. Of the others that have been let go, you can’t be too distraught.

the Without PSG market.

BACK RENNES FOR A TOP THREE FINISH

Les Olympiens are looking to be a slightly younger and fresher squad this season.

Matteo Guendouzi, Cengiz Under, William Saliba and Gerson are all nice additions, and it will be fun to follow how they adapt and progress under the watch of the experienced Argentinian.

Monaco are probably the side most likely to threaten PSG. They were exceptional in the second half of last term and have a young, hungry group of players that they’ve crucially managed to keep. They’ve done relatively little in terms of big-name signings but it’s looking like Myron Boadu will be joining, which is a big upgrade on Stefan Jovetic up front.

There’s no reason why Les Monagasques can’t be in the running and the principality club should be favoured at 7/2 (Betway) in

Two of the most active sides this summer window have been Nice and Rennes.

Billionaire owner Jim Ratcliffe has decided to splash the cash on upgrading the former’s squad to seriously compete for Europe.

Calvin Stengs has been long-touted for a move away from AZ and looks to have made the right level of advancement in joining OGC. Jean Clair Todibo stays on after a decent loan spell, but the signings of Mario Lemina and Pablo Rosario look slightly underwhelming.

Amine Gouiri is the one to watch for the Cote d’Azur club though, he’s a fantastic player to follow with his skill, speed of thought and ingenuity in the final third.

Moving on to Rennes, and I think they’ve made a few canny additions that can take them to the next level. The Brittany outfit, like Nice, have a very wealthy owner but have been fairly reluctant to spend big in the past. They’ve loosened the purse-strings this summer but have brought in young players whose value will likely grow whilst they’re at the club.

Loic Bade is a very highly-rated defender and should partner Nayef Aguerd to form a solid partnership at centre-half. Birger Meling was a bright spark for relegated Nimes last year with his effervescent energy and on-the-ball quality. However, most onlookers will be buzzing to see Kamaldeen Sulemana and Jeremy Doku in full flow.

The pair are likely to play either side of striker Sehrou Guirassy but will interchange.

Defenders will already be having nightmares about facing the exciting duo.

Bruno Genesio replaced Julian Stephen for the second half of the campaign and results did improve. Genesio knows the league well from a decent stint with Lyon and has injected fresh life into a project that was going slightly stale under Stephan, who’s race had been run after a positive few seasons at the helm.

The 8/1 (Bet365) is the best price on SRFC to finish in the top-three and as a bigger-priced punt that looks a tasty one to follow. They’re as short as 9/2 in places.

TAKE MONTPELLIER FOR A TOP 10 FINISH

“When Mauricio Pochettino gets his first XI together they look seriously hard to stop”

One side I think could go well again is Montpellier. La Paillade finished eighth last season, six points clear of 11th-placed Saint Etienne, and played some really entertaining football along the way.

Boss Michel Der Zakarian stepped down at the end of the season and has now moved on to Brest at the other end of the country. Oddly, Brest coach Olivier Dall’Oglio was brought in as his replacement, which looks like a nice appointment to follow on from their style of play adopted last term.

Dall’Oglio was known for his front-foot approach at Stade Francis-Le Ble and did a great job keeping the relative minnows in the league with fairly scarce resources.

Only the top four scored more goals than Montpellier, and with the exceptional partnership of Gaeten Laborde and Andy Delort still in situ, as well as classy operator Teji Savanier behind, you’d expect La Paillade to cause plenty of problems against the weaker sides.

Stephan Mavididi can be unstoppable on his day and watch out for youngster Elye Wahi, he’s my tip to be one of the breakout stars of the league this season.

Sporting Index go 9/10 on Montpellier for a Top-10 Finish and that looks like a solid option to take up or chuck into any ante-post accas.

The likes of Saint Etienne, Metz, Bordeaux, Lens and Strasbourg all look like mid-table operators who should be fine from danger, and improvements are likely from near neighbours Nantes and Lorient.

Newcomers Troyes could be an entertaining team to watch - they’ve links with Manchester City and shouldn’t be short of good young options given their contacts.

Issa Kabore looks a mercurial talent at fullback and there’s scouts liking the additions of Brazilian Metinho and Ukrainian striker Mykola Kukharevych, both of whom will be eager to make a name for themselves. Jessy Moulin and Renaud Ripart add much needed top-flight experience - I’d favour them to stay up ahead of fellow promoted side Clermont Foot.

Angers could be a side who struggle. With long-serving boss Stephane Moulin departing there’s a worry over how this side will adapt under former Lyon assistant Gerald Baticle, who has very little first-team managerial experience.

I wonder where the goals are going to come from for SCO - last season their top scorer was Angelo Fulgini with seven, which is an immediate red flag. Meanwhile, FIFA imposed a transfer ban on Angers after a breach of rules involving themselves and Paris FC, so incomings have been next to non-existent.

There’s plenty of squad players but very few can stake a claim as a top-flight calibre of performer. Before their takeover it looked like Bordeaux were the team with the most issues, but Angers could well have taken over that mantle. Quotes of 5/1 (Unibet) on Les Blanc et Noir to be relegated look worthy of a few quid.

BEST BETS RENNES TOP THREE FINISH 8/1 BET365 MONTPELLIER TOP TEN FINISH 9/10 S INDEX ANGERS TO BE RELEGATED 5/1 UNIBET

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 93

SCOTTISH

PREMIERSHIP

GERS NOW THE TEAM TO BEAT

94 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Rangers upse t in a row last the odds to deny Celtic season with an unpreced Ste en a remarkable unbeaten Pre ven Gerrard guiding the ted 10th title team to beat Teddy Bears miership cam ac to p chase back-to cording to the bookmak aign. The Gers are now ers as the blu the -back champ e side of Glasg ionships. ow

It’s all chang e at was a left-fiel Celtic as former Australia d choice to head coach A take charge nge Posteco needed rebui at Parkhead, glou ld. His task to overseeing a restore the B with disorgan muchhoys to their isation and b former glorie oardroom wra s is vast ngling holdin g the Hoops Elsewhere, th b ack. e likes of Ab erdeen, Hibs battle toward and St Johnst s the top end one are expec , whilst the D back followin ted to undee and E g promotion d inburgh derb ca after 16 mont mpaigns for ies are Dundee and hs without ca Hearts. Meanw pacity crowd stands with re s, supporters hile, al hope that g will be back rounds will b in the e full once ag ai n.

And so ahea d of the 2021 /22 campaig every major n, we’ve cove betting marke red every te t in our comp Scottish Prem am rehensive ante iership camp -post preview and aign, and also bets coverin of broken down g the Cham pionship, Leag the best pre-s the to expert co eason ue One and ntributions fr League Two om Scottish TheFurlongP football afici th anks ole) and pro onado Gerry Scottish footb Taylor (@ all punter Din o Vita (@Vita Dino).

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 95

HOW THEY’LL FINISH

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

Gerry Taylor @TheFurlongPole

1. RANGERS (8/15 BETWAY)

SCOTTISH football expert Gerry Taylor (@TheFurlongPole) delivers his 1-12 team verdicts ahead of the new Scottish Premiership season for 2021/22.

2. CELTIC (7/4 WILLIAM HILL)

3. HIBERNIAN (150/1 SKYBET)

It’s all change over at Parkhead for 2021/2022.

Neil Lennon was in trouble as early as midOctober, when incredibly Celtic went on a run of just two triumphs from 12 and the head Hoops honcho eventually left the club at the end of February.

Following a long, drawn-out process, including an ill-fated chase of ex-Bournemouth supremo Eddie Howe, Celtic turned to Australian boss Ange Postecoglu, bringing the Greek-born coach in from Yokohama F. Marinos in Japan.

Squad wise, galling goalkeeper issues remain.

First priority must be to sign a top-notch keeper as Vasilis Barkas, Scott Bain and Connor Hazard just don’t look good enough for such a crucial position, especially if Celtic have serious aspirations in regaining top spot in Scotland.

Key centre-half Kristoffer Ajer has signed for new Premier League outfit Brentford for £13.5m, though Swedish international defender Carl Starfelt has been signed from Rubin Kazan. Meanwhile, in the forward areas, the Bhoys look to have made a couple of good additions in Liel Abada and Kyogo Furuhashi.

Rangers wrapped up the Scottish Premiership title mega early last season – claiming the champions crown by the first week of March – and Steven Gerrard’s squad still appears to be much stronger than their bitter rivals in the East End of Glasgow.

The Gers have completed some early business, with front man Fashion Sakala recruited from Oostende. The 24-year-old bagged 16 goals in the Belgian top-flight, so Rangers will be looking for a similarly fruitful goal haul from the Zambian.

There is no doubt Celtic have appointed a good manager who will play an entertaining, open brand of football, but it is a massive task for him to have the team and squad in place by 31st July, to immediately challenge their city rivals, especially given the consistency over in Govan last term.

It looks to me, that it’s a Celtic project that is going to take a fair bit of time to build.

A couple of quality midfielders have been added to bolster the engine room - John Lundstram from Sheffield United and Nnamde Ofoborh from Bournemouth – whilst the excellent Conor Goldson continues to marshal the rearguard. With veteran stopper Allan McGregor continuing to shine between the sticks, it’s easy to see how difficult it was to break the Teddy Bears down last season.

Meanwhile, the Ibrox men were helped an amazing 19-goal return across all competitions from right-back James Tavernier. The emergence however, of fellow right-back Nathan Patterson, may see Gerrard try and shoehorn both into his starting line-ups as he tries to further improve the side.

If truth be told, Rangers have built a formidable squad, where two XIs could contain similar quality throughout, and a successful title defence could be on the cards.

96 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

After tabling their highest league position since 2005 and taking the ‘best of the rest’ tag last term, another high-placed finish could be on the cards for Hibs in 2022.

Hibs gained 36 points on the road last season, compared to just 27 at Easter Road Whilst Jack Ross’ charges suffered from stage fright on more than one big occasion – particularly domestic cup contests at Hampden Park – a third-placed finish was comfortably achieved with the Hibees’ excellent away form particularly responsible for a fine campaign.

Jake Doyle-Hayes has been acquired from Ross’ favourite hunting ground for players - St Mirren. Jamie Murphy has now joined permanently from Rangers, and the promising and pacy Daniel Mackay has been signed from Inverness.

If Hibs can keep sought-after striker Kevin Nisbet, then the familiar three-pronged attack of Martin Boyle (15 goals last season), Christian Doidge (12) and Nisbet (18) can ensure another very strong goal return for the Leith outfit, as well as another lofty league finish.

4. ABERDEEN (100/1 UNIBET)

5. ST JOHNSTONE (750/1)

6. ST MIRREN (1500/1 SKYBET) Jim Goodwin’s men are always well organised and difficult to beat - this alone will give St Mirren enough to steer clear of any relegation battle.

Stephen Glass had a good few months to get settled into the hot-seat at Pittodrie towards the back end of last term. Seen by some as a risky appointment from Dave Cormack the Dons supremo, however the fledgling exAtlanta manager looks to have recruited well.

The Buddies have made some decent acquisitions during the close season too – snapping up Greg Kiltie and tough-tackling midfielder Alan Power, both from relegated Kilmarnock. Charles Dunne has signed from Motherwell to bolster the defence, and Scott Tanser and striker Curtis Main also look good additions.

Scoring goals was an issue last term, which ultimately led to the departure of long-serving boss Derek McInnes. But Christian Ramirez has signed from Houston Dynamo, and already gotten off to a great start, scoring on his debut for the Reds in the 5-1 romp against Hacken in the Europa Conference League.

So the initial signs look promising on the Ramirez deal and the capture of Jay Emmanuel-Thomas from Livingston gives Aberdeen another string to their bow. Both JET and Ramirez could prove to be a handful for a lot of defences this term, and see the Dons off to a flier.

In midfield, Lewis Ferguson’s future remains unclear following plenty of transfer speculation. Elsewhere, the veteran Scott Brown has joined from Celtic, and whilst he is not the player he once was, his leadership skills as captain, and his will to win, make the signing a bit of a coup for the Granite City men. Box-to-box midfielder Teddy Jenks has also come in on-loan from Brighton.

The upgrade in central defence, with Declan Gallagher arriving as Tommie Hoban departs, looks a shrewd move. I must also mention young right-back Calvin Ramsay – he’s appeared very promising in the few games he’s had thus far, so loads of potential there too.

Well, who saw that coming?

St Johnstone concluded 2020/21 having taken top honours in both domestic cup competitions, completing undoubtedly the best-ever season in the club’s history.

The Saintees gambled last summer, appointing rookie boss Callum Davidson, who had big shoes to fill when replacing Tommy Wright – who himself won the Scottish Cup for the Fair City men. But that throw of the dice by the Perth hierarchy looks to have paid off in spades, as the former Scottish international already looks to be one of the best young gaffers around

A few of the Paisley men’s players have been the subject of interest from England.

The Saints fans will be hoping that they will manage to keep a hold of Jamie McGrath and co. Another young player to look out for, is promising wide man Jay Henderson – he already looks a class act, and a cracking player for the future.

The Paisley outfit for several years now have struggled a bit for goals, especially at home – only 15 were scored in 19 matches last time round.

Whilst the Buddies don’t look to have a 15goal striker in their ranks, they will look to the aforementioned Main, Kristian Dennis, and ex-Killie duo Lee Erwin and Eamon Brophy to chip in with vital contributions throughout the 2021-22 campaign.

If Glass can get the big decisions right, then Aberdeen could have a nip-and-tuck battle within the top three or four.

The big worry for Saints fans will be keeping hold of Davidson, as well as all their young talent, especially the three centre backs Jason Kerr, Liam Gordon and Jamie McCart - on whom the foundation of that wonderful season were established.

Even so, St Johnstone supporters will be feeling good about signing James Brown from Millwall. Another defender has also joined from the same club on-loan, Hayden Muller, nice.

It’s hard to believe that in Davidsons’s first 10 games in charge of the Saints, the Perth posse managed only seven points. So given a decent start this time round, and on the proviso that the bulk of the successful team stays intact, then another fine season could be in the offing.

St Mirren only won four of 19 home league games last term, earning 56% of their points tally away.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 97

7. HEARTS (250/1 BET365)

8. MOTHERWELL (800/1 MANSION) Motherwell missed out on the top-six last season, and it could be a case of deja vu this time around.

After a poor start to the season, Stephen Robinson vacated the manager’s office, being replaced by ex-Salford boss Graham Alexander.

Results did improve under the new gaffer, but with some key men leaving the club recently, a bottom-six finish looks likely once again.

Scottish international Declan Gallagher has joined Aberdeen, the

9. LIVINGSTON (1000/1 BET365) After a poor start to the 2020/21 campaign, Gary Holt left his role as Livingston boss in November 2020. New head coach David Martindale came in and immediately oversaw a fantastic 14-game unbeaten run, parachuting the Lions into the top-six equation.

Last season’s truncated visit to the Championship for Hearts was a strange one. Despite winning the secondtier comfortably enough as long odds-on favourites, there was still enough alarm bells and rumblings that concerned Gorgie supporters.

Livi’s season then ultimately fizzled out. There was no shame in that, as they predictably struggled to get results against the big guns after the split.

The early season League Cup exit to bottom of the league, part-time Alloa was disappointing. Then the galling debacle of losing in the Scottish Cup to non-league Brora saw calls for Robbie Neilson to lose his job.

The Brora KO was sandwiched between five consecutive league draws, which did little to settle the Jam Tarts faithful.

There have been a few departures since though – Jay Emmanuel-Thomas has moved away to Aberdeen, Scott Robinson joined Kilmarnock, Scott Tiffoney to Partick and Jon Guthrie to Northampton.

Coming into the Tony Macaroni Stadium for this season are: Bruce Anderson, Andrew Shinnie, Ayo Obileye has been recruited from Queen of the South and Sean Kelly from Falkirk.

However, CEO Ann Budge remained loyal to Neilson and is sticking with her man for now, although a poor start to the campaign would see clamours for a change in the dugout increase, particularly with fans returning to the stands.

The positives for the Jambos are, even at 38-years-old, they will have one of the best goalkeepers in the league in Craig Gordon, whilst experienced full-backs, Michael Smith and Stephen Kingsley will also keep things solid. If they can get consistency from wide men like Gary Mackay-Steven, Josh Ginnelly and Jordan Roberts, then that will auger well for the boys in Maroon. The recent cameos of young midfielder Finlay Pollock also promises to give Hearts another nice option.

Improvements on the road will be crucial to Neilson’s charges topsix prospects.

The onus will be on Armand Gnanduillet, and once again the prolific Liam Boyce, to provide the bulk of the goals.

I think it’s widely accepted that Livi overachieved last term, and it could be more of a struggle this time around as Martindale has a bit of a rebuild to his squad to contend with. It’s not overly obvious that their transfer business has upgraded the quality within the squad that was present last term.

Steelmen’s best midfielder Allan Campbell has signed for Luton and striker Devante Cole has gotten a move, likewise to the English Championship with Barnsley.

Players coming in include: keeper Liam Kelly from QPR, frontmen Kaiyne Woolery from Tranmere, Kevin van Veen from Scunthorpe and Connor Shields from Queen of the South.

Already ‘Well have suffered in the League Cup - an embarrassing 2-0 reverse in the Lanarkshire derby to old rivals Airdrie, with Alexander lambasting his players attitude.

So it looks more likely to me the Steelmen squad isn’t looking any stronger than it did last season, hence a bottom half finish could again be on the agenda.

98 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

A disappointing start in the League Cup against lower league outfits tempers any real enthusiasm for a top-six finish this time around.

Livingston tabled a solitary success in their final 15 matches last season.

12. ROSS COUNTY (1500/1 BET365) Another controversial close season appointment was that of former Cardiff boss Malky Mackay, who has taken over the reins in Dingwall from John Hughes.

Hughes came in at Christmas and managed to firefight, steering the Staggies clear of the relegation play-off slot on the last day of the regular season. So it was a bit of a surprise when he moved on.

11. DUNDEE UTD (1000/1 BET365) Survival on their return to the Premiership was top of Dundee United’s priority list last term, and whilst Micky Mellon’s style of play wasn’t everyone’s cup of tea, the Arabs boss secured the side’s number one target early on.

10. DUNDEE (1500/1 BET365)

BTTS banked in 55% of Dundee’s league and play-off games last term, with Over 2.5 Goals also landing in 55% of fixtures.

Despite a shaky first half of their campaign in the Championship last term, Dundee finished the season strongly, deservedly beating Kilmarnock over two legs in the play-offs to grab a place back in the Premiership.

James McPake’s men may struggle defensively with the step up in class, but similar to their neighbours across the road in 2020/21, they should enough about them to survive.

Veterans such as Paul McGowan and Charlie Adam will no doubt relish the return to the top table, whilst the fit-again Alex Jakubiak, Paul McMullan, Jason Cummings and Danny Mullen will provide the attacking threat.

In the last few days, fresh from several seasons in Cyprus and Poland, striker Cillian Sheridan has also joined the Dark Blues to further bolster the options up top.

With the fans back, and with enthusiasm and a good team spirit, I think Dundee games will be a good watch on their return to the Premiership.

However, after months of rumours, Mellon’s inevitable departure back south of the border saw youth coach Tam Courts promoted into the Tangerines’ hot-seat. It’s fair to say his appointment wasn’t met by universal approval and the new head honcho has already had a falling out with goalkeeper coach Neil Alexander, resulting in the latter leaving the club.

Winning his opening League Cup ties narrowly against lower league opposition was acceptable, but fans will ultimately be looking for better fare, and Courts will be under scrutiny right from the off when the Premiership campaign gets up and running.

United have been very quiet in the transfer market, bringing Charlie Mulgrew back to Scotland following an extended spell down south.

Ex-Motherwell goalkeeper Trevor Carson has also arrived, as there has been prolonged interest in the current cat Benji Siegrist. If he were to leave Tannadice, that would be a big blow, as he was pivotal to a lot of the points accrued last season.

Since then there has been a major clear-out in the Highlands. Experienced players like Iain Vigurs, Ross Draper, Callum Morris and Michael Gardyne have left the club. Meanwhile, Leo Hjelde has returned to Celtic, his parent club.

Two decent looking signings have came in though – Ross Callachan from relegated Hamilton and Dominic Samuel from Gillingham.

The Ross County fans will be hoping these two will improve the goals scored output. The latest player to join up is David Cancola from Slovan Liberec and he could be a refreshing option in the middle of the park.

Perennial strugglers, the Staggies look to be lacking the required quality in-depth to be sure they don’t suffer from relegation woes. Likely to be in a battle for survival from the off.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 99

14/1 e/w

KEVIN NISBET (14/1 ew SKYBET) Kevin Nisbet and Martin Boyle scored 18 and 15 league and cup goals respectively last season for Hibs. Nisbet also netted a nice goal for Scotland in a pre-Euros friendly against the Netherlands.

The disclaimer on punting Nisbet is, a few clubs in England are tracking his progress and could conceivably swoop before the season concludes. However, should last term’s top Hibs scorer remain in situ, another healthy goal tally is to be expected.

150/1 e/w

40/1 e/w

25/1

CHRISTIAN RAMIREZ (150/1 ew) Aberdeen have signed 6 ft 2 in American striker Christian Ramirez from Houston Dynamo this summer and the Dons new hitman could make his mark in Scottish football this season.

Between 2014 and 2018, the 30-year-old scored 72 times in 140 appearances for Minnesota United in the MLS. Admittedly, his scoring rate has slowed up over the last two or three years but this move to the Granite City could re-ignite Ramirez.

He’s already bagged a goal on his debut for the Reds and he should play almost every week for Aberdeen, avoiding the squad rotational issues that could afflict some of the Old Firm stars.

e/w

FASHION SAKALA (25/1 ew) Rangers’ new signing Fashion Sakala has also just broken his goalscoring duck, bagging a winning goal against the mighty Real Madrid in the Teddy Bears’ latest pre-season friendly.

MARTIN BOYLE (40/1 ew) Martin Boyle - an Australian international - has pace to burn, and as an added bonus is the Hibs penalty taker.

The Zambian bagged 16 goals in Belgium for Oostende last time out and has just received gushing praise from newboss Steven Gerrard about his great attitude.

Both he and Nisbet are already up-andrunning having notched in European qualifying action for the Leith club.

Only 12/1 with SkyBet, Sakala could be a fashionable bet over the coming days at a generous 25/1 with BetVictor, especially if the 24-year-old plays a prominent role in the defending champions’ starting setup.

So with another strong season expected for the Hibees, it’s probably worth having an interest at the prices on Boyle (40/1 SkyBet), as well as Nisbet (14/1 SkyBet) with his expectations for Jack Ross’ attack-minded outfit.

Plus, if Lewis Ferguson departs the Dons, Ramirez could be one of the candidates to takeover penalty duties.

Anyway, I’ll cut to the chase… Ramirez is only priced at 20/1 with the majority of bookmakers, although there’s a whopping 150/1 each-way available at BetVictor.

100 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

BEST BETS CHRISTIAN RAMIREZ (150/1 ew BETVICTOR) FASHION SAKALA (25/1 ew BETVICTOR) KEVIN NISBET (14/1 ew SKYBET) MARTIN BOYLE (40/1 ew SKYBET)

Dino Vita @VitaDino PRO PUNTER Dino Vita (@ VitaDino) picks out his best ante-post ahead of the 2021/22 Scottish Premiership season.

Celtic’s quest for an unprecedented 10 Premiership titles in a row came to an abrupt end last season as Rangers ended the Hoops dominance of the Scottish top-flight with an emphatic unbeaten campaign. And looking at the early pre-season efforts from both Old Firm outfits, there’s every chance the Gers could follow up their success in 2022.

However, I’m shifting my focus to the bottom end of the top-flight. The battle for survival appears as competitive as ever without Hamilton this year and Livingston caught my eye as 7/1 (Bet365) shots to finish bottom of the pile.

David Martindale took over the Lions midway through 2020/21 and hit the ground running, including reaching the League Cup final.

b i g miss up top for Livingston and that’s where I feel their problems stack up.

Martindale’s men lack a goalscorer and face a tough introduction to the new campaign, playing last season’s top four teams in their opening six encounters. Livi therefore look worth opposing at a nice price.

My main focus centres around the Top Goalscorer market where the top gong is wide open with neither ante-post favourite Odsonne Edouard nor Alfredo Morelos looking likely to see out the season. instead, I’ve picked three alternative options below that could be amongst the goals.

But Livi’s form nose-dived thereafter and the West Lothian club finished the season with a solitary success in 13 league fixtures.

BEST BETS LIVINGSTON TO FINISH BOTTOM 7/1 BET365

Jay Emmanuel-Thomas’ departure could be a

DINO’S BEST BETS 25/1 e/w

FASHION SAKALA RANGERS

Rangers’ summer signing from Oostende in Belgium looks a real find on a free transfer.

Having scored against Real Madrid in a preseason friendly, the Zambian could shoulder the Teddy Bears’ attack.

14/1 e/w

KEVIN NISBET HIBERNIAN

Scotland striker Kevin Nisbet finished joint-second in the Top Goalscorer rankings last season after an impressive debut season for Hibs. There are a few rumours circulating about his future but he’ll be Hibernian’s main man and will look to better last term’s 18goal total.

33/1 e/w

RYAN KENT RANGERS

Ryan Kent was arguably Rangers’ key man last season and really should’ve scored more than 10 goals.

The former Liverpool youth star is expected to have another strong campaign and I could easily see the attacking midfielder rack up a 20-goal haul if he finds his shooting boots.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 101

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

GERRY’S BEST BETS SCOTTISH football boff Gerry Taylor (@TheFurlongPole) runs the rule over the Championship, League One and League Two ahead of the 2021/22 campaigns, picking out his best ante-post punts.

Gerry Taylor @TheFurlongPole

WITHOUT RANGERS & CELTIC

OUTRIGHT WINNER At this moment in time, it’s difficult to see any other outcome than another comfortable stroll to the title for Rangers. Unbeaten in the Premiership last season, and the Teddy Bears have still been strengthening the squad this summer in key positions.

It’s undoubtedly going to take Ange Postecoglou time to piece together a strong line-up, and a squad to begin to challenge across at Celtic Park. First and foremost, the Bhoys boss requires a new number one between the sticks, whilst other areas of the roster are appearing worryingly thin.

Rangers should therefore be capable of taking advantage. I actually think Steven Gerrard’s group should be shorter than their current 8/15 (Betway), based on the rebuild project and the timescale it will take their old rivals to get into gear.

I tipped up Hibs last season at 7/2 in this market for WeLoveBetting readers, and the Edinburgh outfit duly obliged comfortably enough. The Hibees main rivals for this wager should again be Aberdeen and both sides looked good on European duty last week, and are probably strong enough to open up a wee gap on the rest of the division.

St Johnstone were also on my radar in this market, but although they can beat anyone on their day in cup competitions, I just feel they will fall a bit short in terms of goals output (Saints managed just 36 goals in 38 games last term).

Aberdeen look to have recruited well – adding good attacking options such as Christian Ramirez and Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. But if Hibs can keep hold of Kevin Nisbet, added to the goals of Martin Boyle and Christian Doidge, the capital club should again feature in the shake-up for a prominent league position.

It’s probably a toss of the coin between Hibs (5/2 BetVictor) and Aberdeen (11/8 SkyBet) to be best of the rest, so the 5/2 on Jack Ross’ charges appeals as the better priced play.

BEST BET

BEST BET

Rangers to win outright (8/15 Betway)

Hibs to win Without Rangers & Celtic (5/2 BetVictor)

102 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

TOP FOUR As previously mentioned, you will get a handle on the teams I’m expecting to fill the top four.

So a little wager on Rangers, Celtic, Hibs and Aberdeen to all finish in the top-four - in any order - at 7/4 with SkyBet could also be a nice angle of attack. Market rivals St Johnstone may not have enough firepower to scupper it, and I’ve the likes of Hearts down for a sluggish season.

Just on the off-chance that Celtic’s season proves to be another real tester, it’s probably worth chucking a couple of speculative small change at two exact order top-three finishes that rely on the Hoops concluding the campaign outside the top-two.

BEST BETS Rangers, Celtic, Hibs and Aberdeen to finish top-four in any order (7/4 SkyBet) 1st Rangers, 2nd Aberdeen, 3rd Celtic (28/1 SkyBet) 1st Rangers, 2nd Hibs, 3rd Celtic (40/1 SkyBet)

St Mirren have been getting very close to a much-vaunted top-six finish in recent seasons. If the Paisley club can improve their home form, there’s a fair chance Jim Goodwin can guide the Buddies to a top-half position in 2021/22.

TOP SIX As expected, Hearts bounced back from their shock relegation at the first attempt.

However, things aren’t totally serene at Tynecastle with loyal Jambos supporters still questioning the ability of current head coach Robbie Neilson. And I must admit, he doesn’t completely convince me, either.

Hearts are a big club with a great fan base but have the Edinburgh outfit been overrated by the bookmakers on their return to the topflight? It’s possible the Jam Tarts have been priced up on reputation rather than actual ability to make a splash into the top-six and there could be room to oppose the returnees.

If the Premiership shapes up with the Old Firm, Hibs and Aberdeen, plus perhaps the success story of last season St Johnstone

BOTTOM TWO

Saints have made some decent additions over the summer to enhance their chances, and an eye-catching success over Rangers in the League Cup season, plus victory over Celtic

filling the top-five, Hearts will be battling for just once inside the top-six against seasoned campaigners.

in the Premiership, showed Goodwin’s troops have the ability to step up to the required standard.

The 11/4 (Betfred) on St Mirren to table a tophalf finish looks a nice price.

BEST BET St Mirren to finish in the top-six (11/4 Betfred)

BOTTOM SIX

Games at a rocking Tynecastle will give them the Jambos a great chance but very questionable away form in the top division – 16 (23%) wins in their last 70 road trips – plus the ability of the manager to inspire and motivate the squad are my big doubts.

So taking everything into consideration, I’m happy to back Hearts at odds-against (11/10 SkyBet) to be bottom-six material come the end of May.

BEST BET Hearts to finish in the bottom-six (11/10 Skybet)

A rookie manager at this level in Tam Courts, three unconvincing performances against lower league opposition in the League Cup, plus the possibility of losing their excellent goalkeeper Benji Siegrist - these are three of the reasons why I think this season could be a bit of a struggle for Dundee United.

Tannadice, the lack of transfer activity (only Charlie Mulgrew and Trevor Carson have come in), suggest to me there could be a reduced points haul for the Arabs this term.

The Tangerines will also face a few tough derby day encounters in 2021/22 following the top-flight return of noisy neighbours Dundee across the road.

Hence 5/2 with BetVictor on Dundee United dropping into the bottom-two could be worth taking.

So despite having some excellent young players coming through the ranks at

Dundee Utd to finish in the bottom-two (5/2 BetVictor)

BEST BET

The Staggies first six games read: St Johnstone, Hibs, Rangers, Aberdeen, Celtic and Hearts.

We all like to have money at Christmas, don’t we? Well believe it or not, habitual strugglers Ross County were available, in the bookies opening salvo, at a whopping 7/1 to finish bottom of the pile at the end of the season.

Since then, COVID issues have affected their preparation and start to the season, and that price has long gone. However, a market and price I like the look of, is 10/3 with SkyBet for Malky Mackay’s men to be bottom of the pile on Christmas Day.

That is as tough a start as they could have imagined. So come September time, the Highlanders could be on the back foot and really struggling for points. We could therefore be in a nice position with the suggested bet early doors.

BOTTOM ON CHRISTMAS DAY

If Roy McGregor decides to make a change, like he did around Christmas time last season, then hopefully our festive bonus from the bookies may have already banked.

BEST BET Ross County to be bottom on Christmas Day (10/3 Skybet)

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 103

LOWER LEAGUES

SCOTTISH

Arbroath and Morton, as I believe that quartet could make-up the Championship’s bottom four.

CHAMPIONSHIP Since the odds were released for the Championship, I’ve been scratching my head, in all honesty.

The two teams that have dropped into this division from the Premiership - Kilmarnock and Hamilton - are conveniently priced up as favourite and second favs, taking a huge chunk out of the market at approximately 10/11 and 4/1 respectively.

Let’s look at Killie first. Apart from three players, the veteran Chris Burke, Rory McKenzie and Brandon Haunstrup, Tommy Wright has had to oversee a total rebuild with a total well north of a dozen players being signed. Of course, a collection of those new additions are decent performers but there are several reasons why that odds-on quote appears too short to support.

The Rugby Park outfit don’t appear to currently have a striker that will deliver a crucial, consistent goal return. With the plethora of new players at his disposal, Wright knows it may take time for the team to gel, or even the Kilmarnock boss to know his best XI. If the bookies odds-on quotes about the Ayrshire men returning instantly to the Premiership were accurate, you would’ve expected Killie to have impressed, or at least beaten comfortably either Clyde, East Kilbride, Morton or Stranraer in their League Cup encounters. But If truth be told, Kilmarnock’s cup performances were all a bit patchy, against mainly lower-league fodder.

Similarly, Hamilton’s price is a bit of a joke.

Brian Rice has a young squad, without major depth. Some poor League Cup results didn’t advertise Accies’ title credentials, either. With Hakeem Oddofin about to leave, you’d be a brave punter backing the Lanarkshire club at skimpy odds to win what is typically a tough league.

So with the prices of the top two in the betting unappealing, there must be value elsewhere.

I’m going to rule out Ayr, Queen of the South,

104 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Inverness look to have defensive issues, frailties and a thin squad to boot. Meanwhile, Partick should be thereabouts with Brian Graham and Zak Rudden’s goals, but can they keep them out sufficiently at the other end?

Therefore, the each-way pokes with SkyBet I’m going to suggest are the two Fife club -, Dunfermline (8/1) and Raith Rovers (14/1).

Third and fourth-placed sides from last term, the duo only lost out in the play-offs, finishing close to the subsequently promoted Dundee.

New Pars boss Peter Grant has overseen an excellent start to his tenure at East End Park, with 13 goals being scored in the League Cup, including an impressive 4-2 win at Firhill against Partick.

With Craig Wighton, Kevin O’Hara and Nicolai Todorov guaranteeing goals for Dunfermline, and Dom Thomas and Kai Kennedy providing the assists, it’s a fair bet that they will be right in the mix at the business end of the season.

Raith, under the wily operator John McGlynn, have brought in a few fresh faces including veteran central defender Christophe Berra from Hearts, young Ethon Varian has arrived at Kirkcaldy on-loan from Stoke City and should benefit the attacking side of things.

Elsewhere, Lewis Vaughan is back scoring goals for Rovers after some bad luck with injury. With a decent keeper at this level in Jamie McDonald, and the experienced Kyle Benedictus to partner Berra, Raith should be solid enough.

McGlynn usually has Rovers playing a nice passing game through midfield also. So taking everything into consideration, Raith should also be in the mix at the top end of a competitive league in 2022.

BEST BETS DUNFERMLINE TO WIN OUTRIGHT 8/1 EW SKYBET RAITH ROVERS TO WIN OUTRIGHT 14/1 EW SKYBET

Gerry Taylor @TheFurlongPole

SCOTTISH football boff Gerry Taylor (@TheFurlongPole) runs the rule over the Championship, League One and League Two ahead of the 2021/22 campaigns, picking out his best ante-post punts.

LEAGUE ONE

LEAGUE TWO

I’ve found League One the most difficult one to weigh up this term and the bookies have probably priced it up more-or-less correctly.

The four clubs at the head of the market are Falkirk (5/2), Cove Rangers (3/1), Queens Park (4/1) and Alloa Athletic (6/1).

I’m reluctantly ruling out Queen’s Park, despite the Spiders very much being the punters pal in their romp to the League Two title last season.

CEO Leeann Dempster has replaced manager Ray McKinnon with rookie boss Laurie Ellis, citing the long-term project for the Spiders and a focus on youth development over an ability to sign the best available players.

Alloa, under new boss Barry Ferguson, could be contenders but could be a bit short of goals with the veteran Conor Sammon currently leading the line.

The slight market favourites are Falkirk. They have brought in Paul Sheerin as their new boss – though COVID issues have affected their League Cup campaign in recent weeks (having to forfeit games).

Even so, the Bairns have a decent squad, and I expect the excellent Calumn Morrison to shine at this level once again. Though the long-time leaders last season, one win in nine at the end of the campaign and a major collapse mean there are still a few nagging overall doubts here, for me.

“I’m reluctantly ruling out Queen’s Park, despite the Spiders very much being the punters pal in their romp to the League Two title last season.”

That brings us to Cove Rangers. Similar to Falkirk, Cove have had COVID problems to contend with at the start of the campaign.

Nevertheless, the Aberdeenshire outfit were close up with eventual champions Partick Thistle and the Bairns for most of last term, before eventually losing out in the play-offs.

The capture of experienced duo Iain Vigurs and Ross Draper from Premiership side Ross County, should add a bit of quality at this level, whilst Shay Logan and Jevan Anderson give the group extra bodies The tipping point for me though is the goals return of Mitch Megginson. The 29-year-old is prolific every season, and scored 14 goals in his shortened 19 game league campaign in 2020/21. I expect the free-scoring hitman to fill his boots once again, which will give Rangers every chance of reaching the Championship this time around. Cove are therefore the play at 3/1 (SkyBet).

The early (and very generous) 2/1 quotes on newly-promoted Kelty Hearts to win League Two on their debut season didn’t last long. Following a good showing in the League Cup against Dundee United (a narrow 1-0 defeat saw the bookies begin to whittle away their opening gambit.

A 3-1 win in the Highlands against fellow League Two side Elgin, and an impressive 3-0 triumph against third-tier East Fife caused another dent in the Kelty title odds.

Most operators were odds-on by this point, with only Bet365 holding their own at oddsagainst (5/4).

Since the weekend though - when Kevin Thomson’s charges rushed into a 2-0 lead away to Championship outfit Arbroath (eventually lost 3-2), all bookmakers have gone odds-on for the Fife newcomers to take the League Two crown on their first attempt.

Nathan Austin and Kallum Higginbotham are already up and running with several cup goals and are really two players masquerading a few divisions below their actual level. Likewise, Joe Cardle, Jamie Barjonas and big defender Jordon Foster will all enjoy this season operating at this level.

In terms of challengers, the Edinburgh City squad looks slightly weaker than last season, whilst relegated Forfar Athletic will need to regroup to try and put in a challenge.

Meanwhile, Elgin should finish in the mix once again with Kane Hester’s goals and pretty much the same squad as last term.

If you’re playing each-way in this division, Stirling Albion (8/1) and Stranraer (20/1), who both did OK in the League Cup against higher-league opponents, are perhaps worth a small dabble.

To be honest though, they’re all probably playing for second place, as the Kelty roster under new manager Kevin Thomson looks just as strong, if not stronger than the Barry Ferguson squad that had a successful conclusion to last season.

Like Rangers in the Premiership, I fully expect Kelty to win this league comfortably, and I wouldn’t put anyone off putting them together in a double.

BEST BETS COVE TO WIN OUTRIGHT

BEST BETS KELTY HEARTS TO WIN OUTRIGHT

3/1 SKYBET

10/11 BETVICTOR

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 105

MY BEST BETS JAMES POTTER

James Potter @thebettingdesk

MOMENTUM WITH WANDERERS

JAMES POTTER (@thebettingdesk) has shares his favourite five ante-post fancies ahead of the 2021/22 campaign, and highlights a pre-season multiple he’s keen to get behind.

BOLTON TO BE TOP PROMOTED SIDE IN LEAGUE ONE (4/5 UNIBET) Bolton started last season in a very inconsistent fashion - after the Trotters’ first 11 games they were 21st having collected just 10 points (W2-D4-L5).

However, Wanderers ended the campaign with 79 points. Ian Evatt’s outfit collected six points more than any other side over the final 23 fixtures, no side conceded fewer goals and only two teams scored more.

I like the signing of Josh Sheehan, and Declan John from Swansea, and I believe Bolton should have a squad and manager capable of at least a mid-table finish. I can’t see any other promoted side finishing outside the bottom six to eight teams, although Cheltenham are the biggest threat to the Trotters with this wager, in my view.

Cheltenham won League Two and have kept

their squad together which gives them an excellent chance to compete at this level.

I am expecting the Robins to set up in a conservative fashion by keeping things tight at the back – last season Town conceded the second-fewest shots and the lowest Expected Goals against figure (xGA) in League Two. Cambridge will probably see survival as success. Last season they finished 10th on Expected Points (xP). The U’s have lost top goalscorer Paul Mullin - the forward was responsible for 44% of United’s goals last term.

Meanwhile, playmaker Wes Hoolahan was protected, didn’t play midweek matches and still managed to contribute seven goals and eight assists. Cambridge had a 65% win rate when Hoolahan played. However, he is 39-years-old now and may find League One

106 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

a step too far. Therefore, I see a season of struggle awaiting Mark Bonner’s boys.

Always seen as relegation fodder in League Two, a wonderful season overseen by Derek Adams saw Morecambe win the play-offs and a place in the third-tier for the very first time.

But Adams has since departed and key players Yann Songo’o (37 appearances, six goals), Carlos Mendes Gomes (46 appearances, 16 goals), John O’Sullivan (32 appearances and 4 goals) and Knight-Percival (32 appearances) have all left. That’s 26 goals and 13 assists departing the Shrimps.

New boss Stephen Robinson has taken the Morecambe role after resigning from Motherwell last year and faces a tall order with budgetary restraints.

BRADFORD TO WIN LEAGUE TWO (14/1 ew BET365) Derek Adams has left Morecambe after leading the Shrimps to play-off glory last season and taken charge at Bradford. He is one of the main reasons I am really keen to get the Bantams onside.

Looking at Adams’ record in League One and League Two, it’s so impressive. He led Plymouth to a play-off final, second-place finish and then seventh in League One in each of his full seasons. He then worked a minor miracle in his only full season with Morecambe.

In those three full seasons across stints with Plymouth and Morecambe, the hard-nosed Scot has returned a record of W74-D30-L41 at fourth-tier level, with an average point haul

of 82 points per-term.

Adams builds his sides on getting the right players who all share a similar attitude – win at all costs. He has brought Yann Songo’o with him from Morecambe and added some quality and depth to the Bradford back line with the signing of Fiacre Kelleher.

Alex Gilliead and Abo Eisa were among the best players for Scunthorpe last season and have joined the Valley Parade outfit, whilst the permanent signing of Andy Cook looks a

shrewd addition after scoring eight goals in 16 starts onloan last season.

Blackpool to be Top Lancashire Club in the Championship (4/1 UNIBET) Blackpool won the play-offs after piecing together a superb run of form last term.

In fact, Neil Critchley’s side lost just three times from their last 26 League One matches - momentum is key here and I feel that the Seasiders will continue their upward trajectory into the Championship.

The Tangerines boasted the best defensive record during their promotion campaign as they kept clean sheets in 22 of their 46 games.

Blackpool conceded the fourth-fewest shots and second-fewest shots on-target, whilst at the other end Jerry Yates scored 21 goals.

Critchley’s charges look a good outfit, welldrilled and have added some interesting players for 2021/22. Richard Keogh should offer some experience at the back.

In terms of opponents for the crown, Blackburn struggled to 15th last season and from February onwards Rovers had a record of W4-D6-L10. The Ewood Park outfit haven’t signed a player as yet and

there are strong rumors that last season’s leading scorer Adam Armstrong may be sold. Armstrong banged in a massive 43% of Blackburn’s goals last term.

Manager Tony Mowbray has seen his Rovers side finish 15th, 11th and 15th and I don’t see any improvement on that this term.

Elsewhere, Preston new signing Izzy Brown is set for a substantial spell on the sidelines through injury. North End have tried to improve a defence that only conceded four goals fewer than relegated Rotherham, but the players they have brought in may not have the quality required to enhance the Lilywhites.

PNE struggled for goals last year with a bottom six Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Points (xP) haul and I don’t see how they have sorted these issues with the players on their books - Scott Sinclair and Ched Evans are the only players with any real goalscoring pedigree.

Reading to be relegated in the Championship (9/1 ew BET365) Reading are having off-field problems and, at the time of writing, are under a transfer embargo. The Royals have lost two key players from last term too with Omar Richards joining Bayern Munich and Michael Olise heading to Crystal Palace.

Yakou Meite is out for the majority of the season with an injury and the aforementioned trio alone contributed 94 appearances, 19 goals and 13 assists during 2020/21.

back in 2019 has turned down a summer move, which may mean that other players are sold to help balance the books.

During pre-season games Reading have been forced to play academy players to make up the numbers. In fact, the Berkshire boys had a training camp in Scotland and 13 of the 26-player squad were from the youth team, highlighting their potential selection woes.

Big earner George Puscas signed from Inter

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 107

£1964.80

*

PROFIT

ON MARK & TOM’S ANTE-POST BETS SINCE 2018

MARK

TOM

(since 2018-19)

(since 2019-20)

86 pts

56 pts

200.35 pts

138.13 pts

PROFIT

£1143.50

£821.30

ROI

132.97%

146.7%%

STAKED RETURNED

GET MORE TIPS DAILY AT WLB GOLD

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

*TO A £10 LEVEL STAKE

Ipswich to win League One (7/1 SKYBET) Ipswich have a side that have the potential to walk League One. Town have sold and released over 20 players this summer with head coach Paul Cook clear in his assessment of the squad at the end of last season, telling the majority they wouldn’t play for the club again.

The club is being heavily back by a US pension fund lead by ex-Bristol City CEO Mark Ashton and have bought really well. The Tractor boys have persuaded players such as Conor Chaplin from Barnsley to drop down into League One, plus the signings of Lee Evans, Wes Burns, Joe Pigott, George Edmundson, Macauley Bonne and Scott Fraser have really caught the eye.

The fans are firmly back onside with season tickets higher than the last four terms with Ashton telling supporters the signings haven’t stopped yet with another four to five permanent additions potentially incoming.

Cook has plenty of experience at this level and could instigate an immediate turnaround in fortunes at Portman Road.

James’ ANTE-POST ACCA (5/1 BETFRED) Last season Leicester finished 11 points ahead of Aston Villa and 21 points in front of Wolves despite being unlucky with injuries to key players missing chunks of the campaign.

Since then, Patson Daka has joined from RB Salzburg (fresh from scoring 61 goals in 87 games) and Boubakary Soumare has arrived from Lille.

Villa had a great season but with Jack Grealish potentially unsettled and the squad needing some depth, I will be very surprised if they do as well this time around.

Meanwhile, Wolves are going through a bit of a transition with a change of manager, and they struggled to score goals last term with an aging squad. They will improve but they won’t finish above Leicester.

Cardiff have Mick McCarthy in charge, and whilst the football may not always be great to watch, he also gets the maximum out of his players. in 2020/21 he took over the Bluebirds near the foot of the table and ended up eighth, just nine points outside the play-offs.

Kieffer Moore will be a handful at this level again for City and is averaging just under a goal every other game for the Welsh side.

They may fall just short of the top-six, but a

top half finish is well within the Bluebirds’ reach.

MK Dons have bought really well - the captures of Max Watters, Tony Parrott and Mo Eisa are excellent at this level.

Watters scored 13 goals in 15 games for Crawley before Cardiff snapped him up for a reported £1m.

Eisa also did well at a lower level with Cheltenham, scoring 23 goals in 45 starts before moving onto Peterborough.

Dons are not only finding their feet in League One, but I believe could challenge the playoffs this season.

WELOVEB Please enter your se

ETTING

lection(s) below.

Leicester to be Top Midlands Club in the Premier League Cardiff top half finish MK Dons top half finish Bradford top half finish

5/1

Money back if your

TOTAL STAKE £

Finally, Bradford have Derek Adams as manger now ,and as I have previously mentioned he has real experience at this level with two play-off final appearances and a second-place finish. He turned Morecambe from a relegation favorite into play-off

bet loses

10 : O0

winners and his win-at-all-costs attitude will see Bradford take a top-seven berth, in my opinion.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 109

MY BEST BETS MATT KIRBY

ROVER AND OUT

Matthew Kirby @m_kirby95 RESPECTED betting judge Matthew Kirby (@m_kirby95) highlights his favourite five ante-post fancies ahead of the 2021/22 campaign.

Blackburn to be relegated from the Championship (8/1 SKYBET) I’ll start with something outside the box and go with Blackburn to be relegated at 8/1 – a price that has already started to shorten.

losing just once in their last five games, Tony Mowbray’s side only beat those teams towards the lower reaches of the table.

The Championship conundrum is trickier than one on Countdown, the relegation battle could involve several second-tier perennials, including Blackburn, Preston and Bristol City all having to dig deep.

Looking at the squad, you must question if there’s enough quality, especially with the rumour mill swirling around Adam Armstrong’s future. If he does go, they’re in big trouble.

Derby are in the mire with the lack of players and their continued battles with the EFL, so it could leave just two places up for grabs.

Sam Gallagher is a worker, not a scorer, while Ben Brereton Diaz won’t bag a hatful.

I believe Rovers are exposed to trouble. The mood around Ewood Park is glum. Despite

Then, there’s the small matter of keeping Bradley Dack fit for a full season. And there’s no Harvey Elliott this time around.

110 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Mowbray’s pragmatic approach held back the attacking flair last season and a few Rovers’ fans believe his time is up. So, if they start slowly, expect the pressure to mount. But who can they afford to replace him?

With stagnation off the pitch and little money to spend, it could be a long, hard slog for the Ewood Park faithful.

Standing still in the Championship isn’t the way to go…and that’s what it appears Rovers are doing. I can see the three newly-promoted sides being competitive, so I’ll lap up the 8/1 quotes on Blackburn going down.

Bournemouth to be the Championship’s Top ScorERS (9/1 SKYBET) manager and this squad playing with similar approaches and philosophies.

For me, Bournemouth at 9/1 is a tempting play. Now under Scott Parker’s stewardship, the Cherries are bidding to return to the topflight after their relegation at the end of the 2019-20 season.

Last season under Jason Tindall and then Jonathan Woodgate, they managed a sixthplace finish. But it was heartbreak in the playoffs, losing their semi-final to Brentford.

Over the 46 regular-season games, Bournemouth netted 73 goals, which was only bettered by Brentford’s 79 and Norwich’s 75 – two sides who went up.

Dipping my toe into one of the alternative markets for the Championship, I’ll look at which team will score the most goals.

The three relegated sides from last season’s Premier League – Sheffield United, Fulham and West Brom – dominate this market, but I prefer to look elsewhere.

I have question marks about Andre Silva’s

appointment at Fulham. He’s got a solid squad but maybe there’s a reliance on Aleksandar Mitrovic for goals. Then there have been managerial changes at both Sheffield United and West Brom, so the players need to adapt to potential changes in style and tactical setups.

That said, the team I’m going for have had a managerial change, but I don’t see that causing too much disruption given the

The key core of the squad remains, which is a big plus. Dominic Solanke and Arnaut Danjuma have stayed at Dean Court, and they shared 30 league goals last term. While, towards the back end of the campaign, Phillip Billing flourished in a more advanced role – he ended the season with eight goals.

Having David Brooks fit from the start will help this time around to remove some of the attacking burden, so the lively 23-year-old could be pivotal to the Cherries chances.

With an attacking philosophy, some quality players in the final third and a team bond that can build on last season’s heartache means I’m sweet on the Cherries to defy their 9/1 quotes and bag plenty of goals.

Ipswich to be League One’s Top Scoring Team (10/1 SKYBET)

Things look rosy for Ipswich this season.

Marcus Evans’ tumultuous reign is over after selling the club to American investors led by Brett Johnson.

That’s good news for supporters, as is having the safe hands of Paul Cook in the dugout, which can only boost their chances of returning to the second tier of English football.

The big thing for the Portman Road club is their strength in depth up front, which makes the Suffolk side look like a play in the Top Scoring Team market at 10/1. With Town joint-favourites to win the league in places, at around 7/1, this bigger price appeals on a couple of fronts.

There’s a strong attacking quintet for Cook to choose from. Kayden Jackson and Oliver Norwood were already at Portman Road when he arrived, with the latter last season’s top scorer for the Tractor Boys.

While Cook has brought in Joe Piggott – who

bagged 20 league goals for Wimbledon last season – Macauley Bonne from Championship side QPR and Conor Chaplin from Barnsley.

They’ve added quality in the midfield to help create chances for those forwards. The highly-exciting Rekeem Harper is one of the eye-catching deals. Scott Fraser’s arrival from MK Dons is a boost, while Lee Evans is a player Cook trusts from his Wigan days.

The other angle behind this bet is that Cook knows what it takes to get out of this league. His Wigan side won League One in 2017-18. In that season, his Latics side netted 89 goals –seven more than second-placed Blackburn. So, what they could offer in the final third could see this Ipswich side follow a similar script.

With the intent shown in the market, as well as a fresh new air of optimism around the club, they could take League One by storm.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 111

NEW SEASON OFFER

WLBGOLD

JOIN US FOR THE SEASON GET 12 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF 9

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

112 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Macauley Bonne to be League One Top scorer (33/1 ew W HILL) Building on what I’ve said already on Ipswich, I’ve had to look at the Top Goalscorer market for League One. There are plenty of unsurprising names towards the fore following their exploits last season.

Peterborough’s Jonson Clarke-Harris led the way last year with 31 but he’s plying his trade in the Championship.

Charlie Wyke (12/1) bagged 26 for Sunderland but he’s now at Wigan, Joe Piggott (12/1) has moved to Ipswich and got 20. While both Matty Taylor (16/1) and Dion Charles (25/1) bagged 19.

However, this could be an opportunity for Macauley Bonne (33/1) to kickstart his career after limited game time at QPR. Bonne returns to Ipswich – the club he supports – after leaving their academy as an U14.

And, from reading his interviews there’s a clear desire to succeed at Portman Road. He’s also willing to battle with

Piggott and James Norwood for his place in the starting XI. The 25-year-old arrives on-loan, and QPR assistant John Eustace praised Bonne for his work ethic and dedication despite a lack of minutes at Loftus Road.

Remembered for his goals with Leyton Orient in the National League – 22 when the O’s finished 13th and 23 when topping the table – Bonne earned a moved to Charlton and proved he could find the net at that level, scoring 11 times despite the Addicks relegation.

Bonne will offer another dimension to this Ipswich attack, and he should get plenty of chances in front of goal with Scott Fraser, Conor Chaplin and Rekeem Harper teeing him up. Fraser got 11 assists at Burton in the 2019/20 season, while he chipped in with five for MK Dons last term.

With regular game time and a manager, Paul Cook, who will give him confidence, then Bonne could be a regular name on the scoresheet.

Bradford to win League Two (14/1 BET365) I’ll be honest, it only took me a few minutes after the announcement of Derek Adams’ appointment at Bradford before I placed this bet.

Having been underachievers in recent seasons, there must be a wave of positivity as the fans flood back through the Valley Parade turnstiles.

press to strangle the opposition and cut off their passing angles to try and force mistakes high up the pitch.

If succeeding, they’ll create plenty of chances, while being able to limit

the work their defenders do.

It was my first ante-post bet and I’m more than happy to put up Bradford to make a return to League One.

Adams is looking to win his third promotion from the fourth tier, so knows this league inside outside. There’s no surprise he’s acted quickly to shape his squad ahead of the new campaign.

Andy Cook has joined permanently gives them continuity up front, Lee Angol and Abo Eisa will be threats in those forward positions. But, most notably, the signature of Yann Songo’o can’t go unnoticed. His presence in dominating the midfield is what any side will cry out for and he can continue to flourish under Adams.

If Songo’o clicks alongside Callum Cooke, then this midfield will be one to watch. The Bantams suffered when Cooke got injured last season and his return is a big boost.

The current Bradford players will have to buy into Adams’ approach. A high

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 113

MY BEST BETS DAN McCULLOCH

FOXES TARGET TOP SIX Dan McCulloch @DMcCulloch1984 SEASONED WLB judge Dan McCulloch (@ DMcCulloch1984) highlights his favourite five ante-post fancies ahead of the 2021/22 campaign.

LEICESTER TO FINISH TOP SIX (6/5 SKYBET) Leicester have ended in fifth place in each of the last two Premier League seasons but the fact the Foxes were disappointed with those finishes shows how much they have improved under Brendan Rodgers.

I like their work in the transfer market over the summer - identifying that they need to be less reliant on 34-year-old Jamie Vardy for goals - and spending £27m on Patson Daka from Red Bull Salzburg, who will provide stern competition for Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho up front.

Elsewhere, I think Ryan Bertrand will be a valuable addition at the back while Boubakary Soumare will bolster their already very talented midfield. Presently, they seem far more organised, well-run and talented than either Arsenal or Spurs, so odds-against quotes on a third consecutive top-six finish is really surprising.

114 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

SOUTHAMPToN TO BE RELEGATED (5/1 WILLIAM HILL) Having written why I am tipping Ralph Hasenhuttl to be the First Manager To Leave his post (page XXX), it probably isn’t surprising to learn that I am also backing the Saints to be relegated at 5/1.

As stated in the Hasenhuttl write-up, Southampton managed just 14 points from their last 21 matches in 2020/21 and such a return over the course of a season would certainly see them return to the Championship.

Data suggests that at least one of the clubs promoted last term will have just 12 months in the top-flight but I can easily see two of Watford, Norwich and Brentford surviving, which means two more established sides could be relegated.

I couldn’t put anyone off backing Crystal

Palace to go down but 2/1 is not available so I’ll swerve that. The next in the market are Newcastle, but they actually finished three places above Southampton last time out despite having key forwards Allan Saint-Maximum and Callum Wilson both miss around a third of the season with injury.

Newcastle have been reasonably resolute defensively under Steve Bruce and I think they have the attacking talent to ensure they finish in the top-17.

This leaves Burnley as the only other side shorter than Southampton in this market and I

like the spine of their side – Nick Pope, Ben Mee, James Tarkowski, Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes – it’s better than Southampton’s and given they are 5/2 for the drop, Saints have to appeal at double that price.

Kelechi Iheanacho to be Top Goalscorer (50/1 ew SKYBET) Kelechi Iheanacho was a revelation in the last third of the season, scoring 11 goals in 12 matches. His ability has never been in question, either at Manchester City or Leicester, but there have been doubts about his consistency.

With Jamie Vardy now 34, there will surely be more reliance on the Nigerian international than ever, and 50/1 on him in a wide open market (only Mo Salah and Harry Kane are shorter than 20/1) with four places on your side looks like a no-brainer to me.

CHRIS WOOD to be Top Goalscorer (100/1 ew BETVICTOR) Another value each-way pick here, with four places again on side.

Chris Wood has managed double figures in each of his last four Premier League seasons and has scored 26 goals in 65 matches across the last two terms.

I am aware that he is taking part in the Olympics with New Zealand presently but does that really merit being double the price of Callum Wilson (who I also looked at) despite having a better Premier League record?

This price is simply too big in my view.

KIEFFER MOORE to be Top Goalscorer (16/1 SKYBET) Kieffer Moore is 16/1 despite the fact that he would have returned a place in this market last season, having scored 20 league goals, and with severe doubts about everyone above him in the market.

Aleksandar Mitrovic is 8/1 but does he really want to remain with Fulham? Adam Armstrong has been linked with multiple Premier League sides, while Karlan Grant has really struggled since he moved to West Brom.

In contrast, I am fairly confident Moore will be at Cardiff for the full season and

will be a focal point for a Mike McCarthy side which will play quite direct football.

Moore scored four goals in his last five league matches last season and netted for Wales at the Euros, so will surely come into the season in confident fashion.

Elsewhere, I did look at Yakou Meite from Reading and Bobby Cordova-Reid (both of whom are 50/1 in this market) but the former is injured and there is only one season of evidence to suggest that the latter is of value, so I will stick with Moore as my sole Championship selection.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 115

MY BEST BETS NEIL MACDONALD

Dortmund to win THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE £ Dortmund may have lost Jadon Sancho but I don’t believe we’ll see their attacking production drop-off significantly. £ BVB have brought in Marco Rose from Gladbach. Although the end to his tenure wasn’t great, he’s an excellent coach and has excellent results in Europe with both Salzburg and Gladbach as punched above their weight on the continent. £ After been named in January, and having enjoyed a full summer to prepare his side, I think Dortmund will look stronger than last season under Rose.

Neil Macdonald @NeilMac555 RESPECTED professional punter Neil Macdonald (@NeilMac555) proposes his five favourite fancies from the European football scene in 2021/22.

NEIL’S BEST BETS CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Dortmund to win outright (49/1 SBK) LIGUE 1 Rennes for a Top 3 Finish (6/1 Betfair) Nice for a Top 3 Finish (6/1 Betfair) BUNDESLIGA Borussia Monchengladbach for a Top 4 Finish (9/4 Bet365) SERIE A Hellas Verona to be relegated (11/1 Betfair)

£ The two major acquisitions this summer were exciting Dutch forward Donyell Malen from PSV and Stuttgart’s goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who should be an upgrade on both Roman Burki and Marwin Hitz between the sticks. £ Dortmund will be in Pot 2 for the main Champions League draw but there’s no point speculating now who they might get. £ The return of fans to stadiums should benefit BVB; they always have immense support at home for European nights. £ Dortmund have been a team that tends to make it out of the group stages without trouble and proven to be capable of holding their own against European heavyweights. Even last year, with injuries and an interim coach, BVB gave Man City a good run for their money. £ This squad is still young and improving, I believe we’ll see Jude Bellingham, Gio Reyna, and Erling Haland reach even higher heights this term. £ Going off the Euro Club Index - which ranks all the teams in Europe - Dortmund are still a force, ranking 12th-best on the continent. £ This is a speculative punt but assuming BVB can reach the quarter-finals, they will be in the conversation. I make them no bigger than 33/1 so I’m happy to take a punt at the 49/1 on offer.

116 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

Rennes for a Top 3 Finish £ Rennes have spent big this summer, bringing in centre-back Loïc Badé for EUR18m and the highly-touted Ghanaian forward Kamaldeen Suleman for EUR16m.

The Brittany club have seen better results under new coach Bruno Génésio, who will now have a full pre-season under his belt to get his squad ready. £ Rennes, for the moment, have managed to keep hold of Eduardo Camavinga and Jeremy Doku - I’m not too sure if they will leave, but at the moment, both are still in situ.

£ Rennes will benefit from no European football this season - last term Les Rouge et Noir made it to the group-stages of the Champions League, and that stretched their shallow squad. £ Rennes have money behind them with the Artémis group, so I wouldn’t rule out further acquisitions, especially if they fetch a hefty fee for Camavinga or Doku. £ Going off last season, Rennes ranked fifth-best for xG difference per-90 in France; considering Genesio’s pre-season, no European football, and a stronger squad, we can expect them to challenge once again.

Nice for a Top 3 Finish £ Like Rennes, Nice have no European distractions and have acquired Lille’s titlewinning coach Christophe Galtier. £ Again like Rennes, Les Aiglons have money behind them with INEOS (Jim Ratcliffe worth £16.2 billion) £ Rennes have brought in highly-rated PSV winger Calvin Stengs, versatile Justin Kluivert, central midfielder Marco Lemina, defensive shield Pablo Rosario, left-back Melvin Bard and centre-half Jean-Clair Todibo.

Other Eredivisie stars such as attacking midfielder Mohamed Ihattaren and striker Myron Boadu have strong links to the club too - I doubt their transfer business is done just yet. £ The other teams to worry about here have European commitments (Lyon, Marseille, Monaco, and Lille). £ Lille, in particular, should suffer; they sold some big names and, in my opinion, haven’t adequately replaced Galtier.

Borussia Monchengladbach for a Top 4 Finish

Hellas Verona to be relegated

£ Borussia Monchengladbach are another side who won’t have European commitments this season, which should benefit them in the Bundesliga.

£ Verona have lost their coach Ivan Jurić this summer – he was a huge reason why Hellas have been punching above their weight for so long.

£ Gladbach have appointed Adi Hütter to replace Marco Rose; he’s very experienced in this league and has succeeded everywhere he’s managed.

£ Eusebio Di Francesco has been brought in despite two awful recent stints at Cagliari (0.65 points per-game) and Sampdoria (0.43 points per-game).

£ There have been no significant moves in the transfer market yet so expect the Foals to remain among the top tier in Germany.

£ The Gialloblu also saw starting goalkeeper Marco Silvistri depart – he was one of the top performers in Serie A last season.

Despite the dismal second half of the season last year, Gladbach still finished fourth-best in xG difference per 90 with Leipzig, Bayern and Dortmund the only teams to outperformed. £ Unlike the previous season, I don’t believe Leipzig will be a lock for a Top 4 Finish; they lost Julien Nagelsmann and replaced him with Jesse Marsch, who, in my opinion, is more of a motivator than a tactical wizard. £ Leipzig sold starting centre-backs Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano in the summer; Marcel Halstenberg is also on the verge of joining Dortmund. £ Wolfsburg, who finished fourth last term, are also a team I’m low on; they’ve lost coach Oliver Glasner to Frank, replaced him with Mark Van Bommel) and also have Champions League commitments to contend with.

(Gladbach play Bayern Munich in their campaign curtain-raiser so you might wish to hold off backing this bet until after gameweek one in order to pick up slightly better odds.)

£ Federico Dimarco, who was Verona’s most used defender, has been retained by Inter Milan and he’ll also be a big loss.

H i g h ly - r at e d talents Matteo Lovato and Mattia Zaccagni are drawing plenty of interest - if they lose those two starlets, I’d fear for the worst. £ Even if Verona do hang on to the last few stars in their squad, I still see them struggling this season. £ The promoted teams should be battling at the bottom - in particular Venezia and Salernitana - but Hellas are simply far too big at these odds to drop out of the league.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 117

How to find ante-post value Expected Goals (xG) & Transfers Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1 ODDS COMPILER and Betfair/Paddy Power trader Jason Murphy (@jasonjmurphy1) shares his insights into the ante-post markets, providing his views on the pre-season value.

What is the best way to approach finding ante-post (AP) value?

Well, obtaining a copy of the WLB Season Preview was a good start!

Many AP markets, especially on opening, will give too much weight to the team name, and not enough value to actual recent performances or information.

How a team finished the second half of the previous season carries a lot more weight when compiling odds than just the name on the club badge. Likewise, the transfer business the club completed this summer.

Using just these two approaches, and freely available data you can access yourself (we’ll be using Understat in these examples), we will identify a couple of tips.

118 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

EXPECTED GOAL DIFFERENCE (XGD) PER 90 Expected Goals (xG) versus actual results is a great starting point. xG is useful to explain lucky or unlucky runs over short periods (5–10 games). When actual results are over or underperforming xG after 20 matches, then there may be something happening that xG models are not picking up on - xG can be wrong, and the team might just be good (or bad!).

It is between 10–20 game samples where I like to compare both xG and actual results to see what can be discovered.

So, let us look at a 10 -20 match window using the below table of Premier League games from 1st February to 14th May (I excluded the last couple of fixtures as most teams had little left to play for and that therefore reduces some of the noise).

Now, let’s pick a couple of teams and talk through the table below…

Man City produced a strong ‘Expected Goal Difference per 90’ (xGDp90) over the 16 games. On average, they were producing and conceding quality of chances that would see the Citizens win games, on average, by a 1.23-goal margin. That is a phenomenal process.

was right to say “Frankie my dear, I don’t give a damn”. The improvement in Chelsea’s output was there for all to see, and was already rewarded with a Champions League title. Also, Chelsea did a job on Man City three times under the German.

We do note that in some games, City achieved better results than expected for chances produced. This is the ‘Expected Points minus Actual Points’ metric. This is the only red cell for Man City over those 16 games.

With both clubs likely to improve in the transfer window, essentially, Man City are favourites for the league and that is right. Chelsea have now shortened into 5/1 though, and based on all this information, I am not saying the City price is right, but I can tell you the early 7/1 quotes on Chelsea were wrong.

Pep Guardiola’s group could have been on the right side of variance in this run, winning 4.2 points more than the xG of each individual game would suggest.

If we take a quick look at Chelsea on both these metrics, we can see they were the best team for xGDp90 (1.26).

However, that excellent process did not always result in fair reward.

The Blues were a team that could be on wrong side of variance, winning 2.8 points fewer than expected (Thank you Mr. Werner).

CONTEXT TO DATA IS A KEY SKILL FOR ANY ODDS COMPILER If you took this single, isolated view, you would say Chelsea are the best team and therefore should be favourites for the league this season, whilst Liverpool (0.26) look off the pace. Remember though, no data is perfect and must be taken in context.

This table does not include Liverpool’s last three games, where the Reds produced (against weak opposition) a xGDp90 of 1.42! The data we took influences the results. If including the end of the season efforts, Jurgen Klopp’s charges would appear much better.

Also, the context of a full Anfield and fully fit Virgil van Dijk next season, combined with a good process, means odds compilers should have the Merseysiders close to Chelsea in the Outright Winner betting.

Chelsea also produced a better xGDp90 than Man City, but again, remember context. City had the league won and may have produced a better xGDp90 if they still had something to play (as the Blues did with a top-four finish).

The capital club though opened at 7/1 with some bookmakers, who maybe did not give enough consideration to the above data, or the following context.

By bringing in Thomas Tuchel, moneybags owner Roman Abramovich

TRANSFERS AND EFFECT ON PRICES Golden rule – ante-post markets are slow to react to transfer news when it is about to occur.

Two teams that do not show well above on xGDp90 are Tottenham (ranked 11th) and Aston Villa (17th). There is context to be added, but I do not see how the Nuno Espirito Santo for Jose Mourinho switch with the loss of Gareth Bale, Toby Alderweireld (their best defender in my book) and possibly ‘Arry Kane would indicate that Tottenham will improve their xGDp90 output.

I think defensively Spurs will be stronger under Nuno, but offensively their output will drop without Bale and (possibly) Kane - their xGDp90 will be break-even at best. Therefore, Tottenham for a Bottom-Half Finish at 9/2 (Betway) is value based on last term, and if Kane does go, that price should drop shorter than 9/4.

Likewise, Villa will struggle without Jack Grealish if he goes to City. An early glimpse of this was seen in the above table. Grealish missed 12 of these 16 games and, for me, he took the mantle for the ‘single player who, if missing, will move a team’s price the most’. The title previously held by Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace.

A really good indication of the above was Villa’s match-up against Leicester in February. On the Friday rumours broke of Grealish missing the game and come kick-off on Sunday, we saw the Villans’ price had drifted from 15/8 to nearly 11/4. That is around 0.32 of a goal - a massive swing!

If Grealish departs, I make Villa 0.25 worse over the course of the season (the 0.32 is offset a little by Emi Buendia and Dean Smith’s side should adjust over time). If the market applies that 0.25 adjustment to Villa’s rating then that would send their 15/2 relegation price to 16/5, so the current 9/1 (SkyBet) best offer is worth a nibble.

Note how much Man City’s price to win the title shortens if they sign one or both superstars.

I think Kane going to City improves them more (0.1) than if just Grealish joined (0.08).

Part of the reason is that, the England skipper is what City really need. Grealish would join a stable of quality players who can fill very similar roles in this Citizens team, but Kane is the number nine they require, and let me show you why in the next graphic.

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 119

TOP GOALSCORER KEY IS ‘MINUTES’ X ‘NON-PENALTY EXPECTED GOALS PER 90’

those kinds of minutes and NPxGp90, I would be very sweet on the 7/2 (Bet365) for Harry Kane in the Top Goalscorer market.

Non-Penalty Expected Goals per-90 (NPxGp90) is an indication of the quality and quantity of chances a player gets per-game. When identifying value in the Golden Boot market, you look for a player who is going to combine a high number of minutes with a high NPxGp90.

A simpler illustration of this, is that City score more goals than Tottenham. In the last three seasons, City on average have scored 28 goals more per-season than Spurs. How many of those additional 28 goals do you think Kane will have a share of?

If you looked at average NPxGp90 from the last seven seasons, there is very little difference between Harry Kane (0.63) and the EPL Top Goalscorer (0.65). However, whoever is Man City’s Top Goalscorer is getting, on average, the highest NPxGp90 in the league (0.67).

Last season was the only time in seven years that City’s top goalgetter had a lower NPxGp90 than the Golden Boot winner. Why was that? Simple, Guardiola’s charges no longer had a reliably fit world class number nine who would get the minutes needed to turn that high NPxGp90 into a market-winning effort.

Over the last seven seasons, Kane averaged 2,821 minutes (a little over 31 games). His average 0.63 NPxGp90 has always been good enough to win a Golden Boot (which he has done three times already).

The fact Kane managed last season to get 0.64 NPxGp90 in a Mourinho side, win the Golden Boot, while also providing the most assists in the league too, does not get enough attention.

If you put the Spurs superstar in the team that consistently produces on average the highest NPxGp90 for their number nine, then I think we will see the shortest-price ever for the Top Goalscorer gong. With

JASON’S BEST ANTE-POST BETS

If he plays in this City team and can get penalties off Kevin De Bruyne (as well as those delicious assists), he will see his goal expectancy boosted by at least 4–5 goals. Again, that would be massive, and should see him have a great chance of hitting 30+ in a league campaign for only the second time in his career.

Two alternative each-way bets for players who have exceptional NPXGp90, and if they get the minutes will have great chance of placing are Michail Antonio (0.64 NPxGp90 and 80/1 at Bet365) and Diogo Jota (0.57 NPxGp90 and 33/1 at Bet365).

Of course, how could I mention xG without highlighting Brighton (fourth on xGDp90 last time out). The type of chances the Seagulls create may not be accounted for fully in certain xG models and that could be why Albion are underperforming so much.

Even allowing for that, with the stability of Graham Potter, and if the club can hold on to Yves Bissouma and the addition of Enock Mwepu, I think Brighton will be top half this term (7/4 Bet365) and worth a look at in the top-six market at 10/1 (SkyBet).

Regardless of the outcome, I hope you get a good run for your antepost bets and enjoy the season.

PREMIER LEAGUE Manchester City to win outright if Kane and/or Grealish signs (4/5 Sport Nation) Tottenham to finish in the bottom-half if Harry Kane leaves (9/2 Betway) Aston Villa to be relegated (9/1 SkyBet) Brighton to finish in the top-half (7/4 Bet365) Brighton to finish in the top-six (10/1 SkyBet) SERIE A Atalanta to win outright (8/1 SkyBet) LA LIGA Atletico Madrid to win outright (6/1 Sport Nation)

120 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

THANK Y U! Finally, a big thank you for purchasing the preview magazine. It’s been a huge operation – much bigger than our Euros production - and stiched together in under three weeks. There have been numerous allnighters, early starts and plenty of blood, sweat and tears but we hope you’ve enjoyed the content and picked up a few potential punting opportunities.

A big nod must also go to the many contributors who’ve played their own part across the 120+ pages. So in no particular order, we’d like to thank everyone who has contributed to the guide, including: Tom Love (@TomLove_18), Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984), Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB), Jason Murphy (@jasonjmurphy1), James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt), Kevin Hatchard (@KevinHatchard), Adrian Clarke (@adrianjclarke), Neil Macdonald (@NeilMac555), Brendy Boyle (@BrendyBoyle), Marco Di Cosmo (@Scioltz), Gerry Taylor (@TheFurlongPole), Dino Vita (@VitaDino), Matthew Kirby (@M_ Kirby95), James Potter (@TheBettingDesk), James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1), Lewis Blain (@lewisblainsport) Ed Walker (@Edward_W97) and designer extraordinare Selectabet (@selectabet).

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.

WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE 9 | 11 WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 121

PREMIER LEAGUE MARK

TOM

1

MAN CITY

CHELSEA

2

CHELSEA

3

CHAMPIONSHIP MARK

TOM

1

FULHAM

WEST BROM

MAN CITY

2

WEST BROM

BOURNEMOUTH

LIVERPOOL

MAN UTD

3

SHEFF UTD

FULHAM

4

MAN UTD

LIVERPOOL

4

BOURNEMOUTH

STOKE

5

LEICESTER

LEICESTER

5

NOTTM FOREST

MIDDLESBROUGH

6

ARSENAL

SPURS

6

STOKE

LUTON

7

LEEDS

LEEDS

7

QPR

SHEFF UTD

8

SPURS

ARSENAL

8

LUTON

NOTTM FOREST

9

EVERTON

WEST HAM

9

MILLWALL

CARDIFF

10

BRIGHTON

BRIGHTON

10

MIDDLESBROUGH

QPR

11

WEST HAM

EVERTON

11

CARDIFF

BARNSLEY

12

ASTON VILLA

SOUTHAMPTON

12

BIRMINGHAM

MILLWALL

13

SOUTHAMPTON

WOLVES

13

SWANSEA

SWANSEA

14

WOLVES

ASTON VILLA

14

BRISTOL CITY

BIRMINGHAM

15

BRENTFORD

BRENTFORD

15

BARNSLEY

BRISTOL CITY

16

NEWCASTLE

CRYSTAL PALACE

16

COVENTRY

BLACKPOOL

17

NORWICH

NEWCASTLE

17

BLACKPOOL

PRESTON

18

CRYSTAL PALACE

NORWICH

18

PETERBOROUGH

READING

19

BURNLEY

WATFORD

19

READING

COVENTRY

BURNLEY

20 HULL

PETERBOROUGH

21

HULL

20 WATFORD

122 | WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE

PRESTON

22 BLACKBURN

BLACKBURN

23 HUDDERSFIELD

HUDDERSFIELD

24 DERBY

DERBY

MARK & TOM’S

FINAL VERDICT WLB GOLD chiefs Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) deliver their 1-20 verdict on the Premier League, whilst also plotting their expected 1-24s ahead of the 2021/22 EFL season.

LEAGUE ONE MARK

TOM

1

IPSWICH

CHARLTON

2

ROTHERHAM

3

LEAGUE TWO MARK

TOM

1

BRADFORD

BRADFORD

PORTSMOUTH

2

EXETER

MANSFIELD

CHARLTON

WIGAN

3

MANSFIELD

SALFORD

4

OXFORD

SHEFF WED

4

SALFORD

EXETER

5

SUNDERLAND

OXFORD

5

PORT VALE

PORT VALE

6

PORTSMOUTH

LINCOLN

6

FOREST GREEN

HARROGATE

7

WIGAN

SUNDERLAND

7

NEWPORT

FOREST GREEN

8

LINCOLN

IPSWICH

8

CARLISLE

BRISTOL ROVERS

9

SHEFF WED

ROTHERHAM

9

TRANMERE

NEWPORT

10

WYCOMBE

SHREWSBURY

10

BRISTOL ROVERS

LEYTON ORIENT

11

MK DONS

MK DONS

11

WALSALL

TRANMERE

12

BOLTON

BURTON

12

LEYTON ORIENT

STEVENAGE

13

DONCASTER

CREWE

13

HARROGATE

CARLISLE

14

ACCRINGTON

DONCASTER

14

COLCHESTER

WALSALL

15

BURTON

FLEETWOOD

15

STEVENAGE

BARROW

16

GILLINGHAM

BOLTON

16

BARROW

COLCHESTER

17

CREWE

CHELTENHAM

17

NORTHAMPTON

OLDHAM

18

CHELTENHAM

WYCOMBE

18

CRAWLEY

NORTHAMPTON

19

SHREWSBURY

GILLINGHAM

19

SUTTON

CRAWLEY

20 PLYMOUTH

ACCRINGTON

20 OLDHAM

SUTTON

21

MORECAMBE

21

ROCHDALE

22 MORECAMBE

PLYMOUTH

22 ROCHDALE

SWINDON

23 FLEETWOOD

WIMBLEDON

23 HARTLEPOOL

SCUNTHORPE

24 CAMBRIDGE

CAMBRIDGE

24 SCUNTHORPE

HARTLEPOOL

WIMBLEDON

SWINDON

WELOVEBETTING SEASON 21-22 ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE | 123

WLBGOLD

ANALYSIS. INSIGHT. ADVICE.