Wayne q4 2014 report final

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 WAYNE COUNTY 路 Q4 2014

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality

GEOGRAPHY

WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne.

This report focuses on Wayne County.

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2014

The top posting occupations in Wayne County have been relatively unchanged for over a year running. This quarter, however, a significant increase in demand for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (from 818 last quarter to 1,931this quarter), has balked this trend and pushed demand for Truck Drivers into the number one in-demand spot.

Software Developers for Applications, which was the previously highest posting occupation for several quarters running, Registered Nurses, and Sales Representatives (wholesale and Manufacturing Except Technical and Scientific Products), round out the top four posting occupations. Next quarter will be indicative of whether increased 2 demand for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is here to stay.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014

The labor force in Wayne County has been on a slow and steady decline for several years. Last quarter represented a brief increase in labor force numbers, but the current quarter displays yet another decline in labor force numbers, with 5,665 individuals dropping out of the labor force between this quarter and last. Current labor force information indicates that annual 2014 levels will be below 2013 levels.

Employment, on the other hand, has been steadily increasing in the region since the 2009 trough, but has recently been slowing down. Employment growth did occur in the most recent quarter, with 4, 046 individuals gaining employment (0.6% increase). Data indicates that annual 2014 employment numbers will present a slight increase from the previous year, continuing the upward trend.

The unemployment rate decreased 12.2% between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, from 9.8% to 8.6%.

Although this seems like a positive indicator, labor force decrease slightly outpaced employment growth this quarter, meaning that most of the drop in unemployment is due to a smaller pool of workers available to be employed, not because more workers are becoming employed. However, the decrease in labor force was slight enough that WIN does not consider this to be a completely negative indicator for the region.

During Q4 2014, online job ads in Wayne County increased for the first time this year from 31,419 postings in Q3 to 38,383 in the current quarter. From Q3 2013, posting levels have been higher than the previous average in 2011 and 2012. Although a drop in postings occurred last quarter, the increase back to the higher 2013 average is a positive sign. In both 2011 and 2012, large increases in postings occurred between Q4 and Q1 of the following year. If data keeps with this trend, we may see another increase in postings in first quarter 2015.

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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

WAYNE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

The most postings in the skilled trade and technician group are for First-Line Supervisors Of Production And Operating Workers with 174 postings (20.9% of all skilled trade-related postings in the County). This occupation was also the top posting occupation last quarter, and the occupations posting the second and third most remain unchanged as well. The next most prevalent postings are for Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, And Weighers (98 postings) and Production Workers, All Other (92 postings). This is the 4th consecutive quarter with the same top three postings for the skilled trade and technician occupation cluster.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Although overall posting activity in Wayne County increased this quarter, postings for skilled trades and technicians occupations have dropped slightly since Q3 2014. This is the 4th consecutive quarter of declining postings; skilled trades occupations did not see an increase at all this year. Historically, increases in postings have occurred between Q4 and Q1 of the following year, so we can hope to see an increase in postings next quarter.

These jobs are not traditionally posted online but are often filled through unions, hiring halls, or word of mouth. The trend is shifting though, with more and more employers turning to online postings to find qualified workers. Skilled trade and technician postings represent 2.2% of total Wayne County online job postings.

The number of individuals employed in Wayne County skilled trades and technician positions is at 28,597. Employment in this cluster has not fully bounced back from the recession. Peak employment (in 2005) was 36,114 but the current trends do not indicate that the county will regain very many more of the 12,000 lost jobs. Occupational employment has been level for nearly 3 years, fluctuating around 28,500.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

Mechanical Engineers represent 20.1% of all engineering and design job postings in Q4 2014 with 410 online postings. Postings for this occupation remain high every quarter, typically landing demand for Mechanical Engineers in the top spot. Other top jobs include Civil Engineers (334 postings) and Electrical Engineers (315 postings). These occupations have remained in the top three spots for several quarters running. Together, these three jobs represent more than half of total postings in this occupation group (52.1%).

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Engineer and designer postings in Wayne County have fallen for another consecutive quarter, making this the 4th quarter of decreases. Q4 2014 posting levels fell from 2,122 in Q3 to 2,031. Postings are fluctuating around the 2,000 mark, which is higher than normal for this time of year. Engineer and designer postings represent 5.3% of total online job postings in Wayne County.

2014 employment in Wayne County for engineers and designers is at 21,222, up from the 2009 recession trough of 17,184 workers. The number of individuals employed in Wayne County engineering and designer positions has increased steadily since the recession and is approaching the pre-recession peak of 22,522 from 2005.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services.

While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

20% of all IT postings in Wayne County are for Software Developers, Applications (1,023 postings). This occupation has been at the top of IT postings for several years running. Other top postings include Computer Systems Analysts (648 postings), and Computer User Support Specialists (503 postings). These two occupations remain unchanged from the top posting occupations in Q3 2014.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

IT postings in Wayne County increased slightly between the current quarter and last, but have not returned to the high posting levels seen throughout 2013.

Postings have remained around 5,000 for most of 2014, and this quarter is no different with postings at 4,999. IT postings still represent 13% of total postings in Wayne County, indicating that this is a very high-demand occupation group.

The number of individuals employed in Wayne County in information technology positions has increased slightly from 22,247 (2013) to 22,404 (2014). Like other occupational groups, IT employment fell dramatically from 2005 (25,917 employed) to 2009 (the recession trough with 19,593 employed). The pace of adding new tech jobs has appeared to slow in the last few years compared to previous growth, but the trend is still moving upward.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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HEALTH CARE

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

Over 30% of health care job postings in Wayne County are for Registered Nurses (1,388 postings). This occupation has been the top online poster for several years running. Other top postings in Wayne County include those for Nursing Assistants (266 postings), Medical Records and Health Information Technicians (208), and Medical Assistants (206). These occupations are typically represented in the top 4 postings and represent over 50% of all health care postings in Wayne County.

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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Unlike other occupation groups, health care postings increased significantly from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014. Postings were at 3,245 last quarter and are at 4,398 this quarter, a 35% increase in postings. Posting levels are well above the same time last year, even surpassing the previous peak of 4,240 in Q3 2013. Postings in Q1 2015 will indicate whether this increase is here to stay. Health care occupation online postings represent 11.5% of all online job postings in Wayne County.

Health care employment in Wayne County did not experience recessionary drops as other clusters did. Instead, employment in this group has increased steadily year to year up to the 2013 peak level of 80,622 workers. In 2014 employment dropped to 79,774, the first drop in health care employment in a decade.

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region.

Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupations groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in this area include Sales Representatives, Wholesale And Manufacturing, Except Technical And Scientific Products (973 postings), Retail Salespersons (875 postings), Customer Service Representatives (615 postings), and First-Line Supervisors Of Retail Sales Workers (604 postings). These five occupations represent over 50% of all retail and hospitality related online job postings in Wayne County, and remain unchanged in order from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014.

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Retail and hospitality online postings increased by about 1,000 postings from Q3 2014 to Q4 2014, from 5,974 postings to 6,962. Postings in this occupation group may have experienced an increase due to hiring for the holiday season. Postings increased, but are significantly lower than the peaks seen in 2013. Much of the posting behavior in these occupations is due to churn and turn-over in staff in these positions, and does not always represent job growth. Retail & hospitality postings represent 18.1% of all online job postings in Wayne County, the most common posting occupation group in the region.

Employment in retail and hospitality jobs in Wayne County has been steadily declining in the past three years. After a steep fall due to the recession, employment bottomed out at 197,100 in 2010 and processed to increase until 2012 at which point employment began to drop again.

Employment is currently at 200,244 workers, down from the 2012 level of 203,454.

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

SECTION FOUR

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

Between Q3 and Q4 2014, the labor force decreased by 5,665 individuals (0.7% drop). The overall annual trend has been a steady decline, despite a slight increase last quarter. Current labor force information indicates that annual 2014 levels will be below 2013 levels.

In the most recent quarter, employment increased by 4,046 individuals in Wayne County (0.6% increase). Data indicate that employment growth in the county is slowing down but still continuing on an upward trend overall.

The unemployment rate decreased 12.2% between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, from 9.8% to 8.6%. The decrease this quarter is due to labor force decline outpacing employment growth. When the labor force decreases more quickly than employment, the unemployment rate decreases because there are fewer available workers in the pool, not because individuals are making significant employment gains.

During Q4 2014, online job ads in Wayne County dropped for another quarter to 35,865 postings Levels remain above the 2011-mid 2013 average of 30,00 postings, but Q3 marks the second quarter in a row with a decrease of more than 5,000 postings. The declining trend is felt across the region as online job ads drop.

During Q4 2014, online job ads in Wayne County increased for the first time this year from 31,419 postings in Q3 to 38,383 in the current quarter. An increase in postings is a positive sign and will hopefully be sustained in Q1 2015.

50% of online job postings in Wayne County are from the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN.

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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

• Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County.

• All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data.

• Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank.

• Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment that what is in this report.

• Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports.

• Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations.

• Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

• Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them.

• WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry.

• By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH