WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 WASHTENAW COUNTY Q4 2014
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality
GEOGRAPHY
WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on Washtenaw County.
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2014
This quarter, the top posting occupation in Washtenaw County is Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers with 345 postings The top posting occupations in Washtenaw County have been consistent for several quarters. Software Developers, Applications, Registered Nurses, Retail Salespersons, and Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers have rotated among the top 4 spots nearly every quarter since early 2013 with almost equal demand in each of these occupations. Last quarter, Medical and Health Services Managers balked this trend and displaced truck drivers, but an increase in demand for truck drivers across the region has pushed that occupation to the number one spot and Medical and Health Services Managers (186 postings) to the fifth highest posting occupation. 2
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014
The labor force in Washtenaw County grew between Q3 and Q4 2014, from 187,341 to 190,082. Between Q2 and Q3 2014 a slight decrease in labor force occurred, but the 1.5% growth in the current quarter has made up for that loss and surpassed the Q2 2014 levels. Labor force has been slowly increasing since 2010 in Washtenaw County, and 2014 confirms this trend with almost 6,000 more individuals in the labor force. Similarly, employment in Washtenaw County decreased between Q2 and Q3, then increased between Q3 and Q4. The growth in the current quarter has made up for the loss last quarter. Employment has been generally increasing year on year, and this year will confirm that trend. Since 2010, employment numbers have increased by 11,387. Simultaneous growth in labor force and employment are a positive sign for this region.
The unemployment rate has decreased significantly from last quarter, by 2,495. Whereas numbers were stagnant for most of 2014, this quarter, the unemployment rate is at 3.8% compared to 5.2% last quarter. This drop has pulled the 2014 annual average down for the year to 4.9%, a full percentage point down from the 2013 unemployment rate. Job posting levels have fallen every quarter in 2014. Q4 2014 confirms this trend, with postings dropping from 9,408 in Q3 to 8,870 in Q4. Although there were several brief peaks in postings, the average has been falling since the largest peak seen in the data in Q3 2013. Before this peak, the number of postings per quarter averaged between 6,000 and 7,000, and we may be seeing a return to these lower average levels in this county.
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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
WASHTENAW COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most postings in the skilled trade and technician group are for Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers at 43 postings. This has been the top posting occupation for several quarters running. Production Workers, all other are the second most in-demand occupation at 40 postings. These two occupations each have more than double the demand for all other occupations in this group, as all other occupations had fewer than 20 postings in Q4 2014.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Skilled trades and technicians postings have fluctuated nearly every quarter throughout 2013 and 2014. Postings in skilled trades increased this quarter from 195 to 225, but postings are lower than they were at the beginning of this year. Posting levels are experiencing less extreme peaks and troughs, so we may begin to see skilled trades demand norming around the 200 mark, however the data has been unpredictable. Skilled trade postings represent 2.5% of all postings in Washtenaw County.
Employment in the skilled trades occupational group has been increasing since the recession trough of 2009 and 2010, but progress has been slow. Whereas more than 7,000 individuals were employed in this sector in 2005, the employment levels now are fluctuating around the 5,000 mark. Employment has decreased slightly since last year, but the overall trend is generally positive and steady, albeit slow. There are currently 5,090 employed in skilled trades position in the Washtenaw County.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Whereas Electrical and Mechanical Engineers have been out-posting all other engineering and design occupations in Washtenaw County for several quarters, Civil Engineers hold the top posting spot in Q4 2014, with 73 postings. This occupation has been slowly gaining over the last several quarters, and has now surpassed demand for Mechanical Engineers at 65 postings and Electrical Engineers at 51 postings. These three occupations represent the majority of demand in this sector. Other top jobs include Industrial Engineers and Architects, except Landscape and Naval, each averaging around 20 postings.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
After a somewhat substantial drop between Q1 and Q2 2014, engineer and designer postings have fluctuated just slightly for the rest of the year. After an increase between Q2 and Q3, postings have decreased again to the lowest point seen this year, 325 postings. Engineer and designer postings in Washtenaw County have been fluctuating over the past several years, and are currently leveling around what could be considered the average for this occupational group. Postings have not yet reached a peak higher than the 430 postings seen in Q3 2013, when demand spiked for many clusters across the region. Engineer and designer postings represent 3.7% of all online postings in Washtenaw County.
Similar to the other advanced manufacturing occupational group of skilled trades, engineering and design employment levels have been slowly, steadily increasing since the recession trough in 2009. Currently at 4,970, employment has not yet reached pre-recession levels which peaked at 5,650 in 2005. The general trend is positive though, and appears to be leveling off between 2013 and now.
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES
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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications. Software Developers, Applications dominate IT postings in Washtenaw County, as they do in many other counties. At 288 postings this quarter, demand for software developers is higher than the next two most indemand occupations combined, Computer Systems Analysts (108 postings) and Computer User Support Specialists (105 postings). Computer Programmers and Web Developers are also in demand in this county, with 80 and 76 postings respectively.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
IT postings in Washtenaw County peaked in Q3 2013, have dropped since then, but remain relatively high and steady. IT postings have dropped very slightly each quarter for much of this year but overall have remained flat. Q4 2014 keeps with this trend, with another slight decrease in postings from 1,125 to 1,067. A much more significant dip in postings occurred throughout 2012 and early 2013; the region has recovered since then to return to 2011 levels, averaging around 1,100 postings for these occupations. IT postings represent 12.0% of all online postings in the county.
Employment in the IT sector has been growing steadily since 2005, growing from 7,592 (2005) to 8,806 (2014). Interestingly, this is one of the only occupational groups to show a slight dip during the recession rather than a major trough. Employment has also surpassed pre-recession levels. In fact, IT employment reached pre-recession levels very quickly, steadying again in growth by 2011. The rate at which employment share is growing is promising for this industry, and is expected to continue over the next several years.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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HEALTH CARE
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers are needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster. Registered Nurses are overwhelmingly the top posting occupation in healthcare in Washtenaw County, similar to other counties in the region. At 335 postings, Registered Nurses account for nearly a quarter of total healthcare postings in this region (24.7%). This occupation has been the top online poster for several years running. The next top three posting occupations, and the order in which they appear, remains unchanged from last quarter, with only slight increases or decreases in each category: Nurse Practitioners (97 postings), Nursing Assistants (81 postings), and Medical Assistants (69 postings).
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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
A slight dip in Health Care postings occurred this quarter, dropping from 1,453 to 1,356, but this is much higher than the historical average before Q3 2013, which was lower than 1,000. High posting levels in health care occupations appear to be here to stay in this region. Health care postings represent 15.3% of all online job postings for Washtenaw County.
Employment in the health care cluster of occupations has been steadily growing since 2005, growing from 25,648 (2005) to 31,439 (2014). Like IT, health care employment was not as affected by the recession as other occupational groups, rather it continued its steady growth throughout the past decade. Health care is the only occupational cluster to show constant growth year upon year, without a single year employing fewer individuals than the previous. Between 2013 and 2014, employment in health care increased by nearly 800 individuals in Washtenaw County.
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES
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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region. Top jobs in the Retail and Hospitality cluster are dominated by Retail Salespersons. This occupation is often the number one top posting occupation not only in the cluster, but also in Washtenaw County as a whole. This quarter, Retail Salespersons represent 203 postings or 16.8% of all retail and hospitality occupations. Other top occupations in this group include Customer Service Representatives (132 postings), First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (116 postings) and Sales Representatives, Wholesale And Manufacturing, Except Technical And Scientific Products (110 postings).
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
Retail and hospitality online postings had been growing over the past two quarters, but a sharp drop occurred in Q3 2014 with postings falling by a third, and postings have fallen again in Q4. Postings appear to be returning to the pre-Q3 2013 peak levels, to the more consistent historical average of 1,300-1,500. The drops over the past last two quarters are surprising, since we usually see an up-tick in Q3 and Q4 of each year due to holiday posting activity. Much of the posting behavior in this cluster in general is due to churn and turn-over in staff in these positions rather than significant job growth. The 1,385 postings for retail and hospitality workers in Q3 2014 represent 15.6% of all online job ads in the county.
Retail and Hospitality employment follows the same trend as many other occupational groups. Employment has been increasing in this cluster since hitting the recession trough in 2009 (47,032 employees). Employment in these occupations has also surpassed pre-recession levels, growing from 49,436 (2005) to 51,555 (2014). This growth is occurring relatively quickly and is expected to continue.
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES
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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS
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SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
SECTION FOUR
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
Since the beginning of this year, 1,745 individuals have joined the labor force, despite the slight dip seen earlier this year. 2014 labor force numbers surpass 2013 labor force numbers for Washtenaw County, continuing the upward trend seen throughout the past several years. In Q3 2014, employment increased by 5,236 people from the previous quarter (Q2 2014), a 2.9% change. Employment has increased by almost 5,000 this year, which is a positive sign as employment has been steadily increasing year on year since 2010. A significant change in the unemployment rate this quarter has caused the rate for the year to drop a full percentage point from 5.9% in 2013 to 4.9% for 2014. Employment growth has been outpacing labor force growth (though the labor force has also been growing), so the drop in unemployment rate is due to people actually gaining jobs. Total online job postings fell this quarter, dropping from 9,408 to 8,870. After a peak of almost 12,000 in Q3 2013, postings have been slowly decreasing back to a more normal average, below 10,000. 2015 data will confirm whether this new lower average is here to stay. 49.1% of online job postings in Washtenaw County are represented in the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN.
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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH