St clair q4 2014

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 ST. CLAIR COUNTY Q4 2014

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality

GEOGRAPHY

WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne.

This report focuses on St. Clair County.

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014

Retail Salespersons is the top posting occupation in St. Clair County for the fifth consecutive quarter.

However, demand has significantly decreased for this occupation since Q3 2014, where it more than doubled the next top posted job. Similar to the rest of the WIN region, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is part of the top postings occupation in St. Clair County, where it comes in third place for Q4. This is the first time since WIN began creating quarterly reports that Registered Nurses is not a top five job for the county. Retail and hospitality related occupations account for 50% of the top posting occupations in St. Clair County for Q4 2014.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014

Labor force participation in St. Clair County has been generally level since 2011, with quarterly fluctuations between 73,000 and 75,000 thousand individuals. There was a -0.9% drop between Q3 and Q4 2014, moving down to 73,716 participants. These levels are also lower than Q4 2013.

Employment levels in St. Clair County have been slowly increasing since Q4 2013. Most recently, employment increased by 191 workers between Q3 and Q4 2014—a 0.3% increase. This is the highest level of employment for St. Clair County since 2009.

Unemployment has steadily decreased in St. Clair County since reaching record highs in 2010.

This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 1.1 percentage points decreasing the overall unemployment percentage to 7.5%. This is still slightly higher than the WIN region average of 7.0%. The drop in unemployment is due to a falling labor force in Q4 2014 rather than large job gains. Nonetheless, this is the lowest unemployment for the county since Q4 2006.

Online job postings in St. Clair County have been slowly increasing since Q4 2013. Most recently, postings increased by 227 between Q3 and Q4 2014—a 16.4% growth. Neglecting the surge in postings anomaly for Q3 2013, which was apparent across most of the WIN region, postings have continued to increase over the last eight quarters since reaching a record low (483 postings) in Q4 2012.

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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

ST. CLAIR COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

The top postings in the skilled trades and technicians group are for Production Workers, All Other with 17 postings.

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic, last quarter’s top posting job for this group, comes in second with 11 postings in Q4. Together, these two occupations account for one out of every three job postings related to this cluster in St. Clair County.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Compared to previous years, online postings for skilled trades and technicians have remained relatively steady since Q4 2013. For example, there was a difference of only one posting between Q3 (78 postings) and Q4 (77 postings) 2014 and postings have fluctuated around a trend line close to 80.Traditionally, openings for jobs in this cluster were not posted online but rather filled through unions, hiring halls, or word of mouth. The relative steadiness of postings over the last year could indicate, however, that the trend is shifting towards more employers using online postings to find qualified workers. Skilled trade and technicians postings represent 4.8% of total St. Clair County online job ads.

The number of individuals employed in St. Clair skilled trades and technicians positions has increased slightly from 2,773 (2013) to 2,897 (2014-annualized), and has been on an upward trend for several years. Employment has not yet recovered to pre-recession levels. The pace of adding new skilled trades jobs has very slowly but consistently grown in the last five years.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

Industrial Engineers represent nearly 25% of all engineering and design job postings in Q4 2014 with seven total postings. Other top jobs include Electrical Engineers (six postings) and Mechanical Engineers, Civil Engineers and Manufacturing Engineers all with four postings each.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Engineer and Designer postings in St. Clair County have generally been decreasing since reaching a peak of 74 postings in Q3 2013. Q4 2014 saw an increase of just four postings over Q3. Historical trends show that there is typically an increase in postings between Q3 and Q4, and 2014 is no different.

Engineer and Designer postings represent just 2% of all online job postings in St. Clair County, one of the smallest group analyzed by WIN.

The number of individuals employed in St. Clair engineer and designer positions has increased slightly from 1,142 (2013) to 1,178 (2014-annualized).

The pace of adding new engineer and designer jobs has very slowly but consistently grown in the last five years and has now reached 2007-2008 levels.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. ma While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

For the second consecutive quarter Computer User Support Specialists dominate online job postings related to IT for St. Clair County. This occupation represent 50% of all IT postings for the county in Q4. Furthermore, this is the only occupation in the top five for St. Clair County that is also in the top five for the WIN region.

Software Developers, Applications is the most in-demand IT occupation in the region, but is nowhere to be found in St. Clair.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

IT postings in St. Clair County remain above 2012 and early 2013 levels but have declined slightly this quarter, sliding from 34 to 28 postings. Over the past five quarters, postings have alternated between rising and falling around an average of about 30. IT postings make up 1.7% of total postings in St. Clair County, and has the least employer demand of any occupation group analyzed by WIN.

The number of individuals employed in St. Clair information technology positions has remained steady from 2013 to 2014 (annualized), increasing slightly from 712 to 717. The pace of adding new information technology jobs has halted since 2012 and does not appear likely to be near pre-recession levels anytime soon.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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HEALTH CARE

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

Nearly a quarter of health are job postings in St. Clair County were for Registered Nurses (46 postings) in Q4 2014. However, this is the second consecutive quarter where the number of postings have decreased for this occupation. Other top postings include Occupational Therapists (11 postings), Nursing Assistants (11 postings), and Physical Therapists (10 postings).

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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Health care postings have been relatively steady over the last year. There has been a slight drop since Q1, but overall postings remain higher than 2011 and 2011 averages. Health care occupation online postings represent 12.4% of all online job ads in St. Clair County

The number of individuals employed in St. Clair health care positions has declined from 2013 to 2014 (annualized), going from 6,333 to 5,276. St. Clair County health jobs have been decreasing consistently since 2011, almost an inverse pattern compared to other occupational clusters and other counties.

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region.

Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN. The top job in this area, Retail Salespersons (95 postings), is also the top posting occupation in the county overall. Other top occupations include Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (55 postings), Customer Service Representatives (49 postings) and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (47 postings).

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Retail and hospitality online postings increased from Q3 to Q4 2014 by 61 postings—a 14% increase. While postings in this quarter are quite high, most often posting behavior in this sector is caused by high turn-over in staff and not necessarily job growth. This is most likely the case since employment in this cluster has decreased over the last two years. Retail and hospitality postings represent 31.5% of all online job postings in St. Clair County, the largest occupational demand group in the area.

The number of individuals employed in St. Clair retail and hospitality positions has declined from 2013 to 2014 (annualized), going from 13,777 to 13,645. St. Clair County retail and hospitality jobs have been decreasing consistently since 2012, and are nearing the recession trough of 2010. Pre-recession averages fluctuated around 15,000, while current levels are steadying around 13,000.

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

SECTION FOUR

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

Labor force participation in St. Clair County has been generally level since 2011, with quarterly fluctuations between 73,000 and 75,000 thousand individuals. There was a -0.9% drop between Q3 and Q4 2014, moving down to 73,716 participants. These levels are also lower than Q4 2013.

Employment levels in St. Clair County have been slowly increasing since Q4 2013. Most recently, employment increased by 191 workers between Q3 and Q4 2014—a 0.3% increase. This is the highest level of employment for St. Clair County since 2009.

Unemployment has steadily decreased in St. Clair County since reaching record highs in 2010. This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 1.1 percentage points decreasing the overall unemployment percentage to 7.5%. The drop in unemployment is due to a falling labor force in Q4 2014 rather than large job gains.

Online job postings in St. Clair County have been slowly increasing since Q4 2013. Most recently, postings increased by 227 between Q3 and Q4 2014—a 16.4% growth.

Neglecting the surge in postings anomaly for Q3 2013, which was apparent across most of the WIN region, postings have continued to increase over the last eight quarters since reaching a record low (483 postings) in Q4 2012.

52.4% of online job postings in St. Clair County are from one of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN. Retail Salespersons is the top posting occupation in St. Clair County for the fifth consecutive quarter. Similar to the rest of the WIN region, Heavy and TractorTrailerTruck Drivers is part of the top postings occupation in St. Clair County, where is comes in third place for Q4.This is the first time since WIN began creating quarterly reports that Registered Nurses is not a top five job for the county. Retail and hospitality related occupations account for 50% of the top posting occupations in St. Clair County for Q4 2014.

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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

• Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County.

• All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data.

• Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank.

• Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report.

• Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports.

• Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations.

• Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

• Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them.

• WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry.

• By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH