Rpi region 6 data summary q4 2015 optimizedfinal

Q4 2015 & 2015 year-in-review

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY PROSPERITY REGION SIX

CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment

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JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 4th QUARTER 2015 LABOR MARKET ANALYSIS FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 4th quarter (Q4 includes October, November, and December) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings. The report covers seven Region 6 counties (Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Tuscola, Shiawassee, and St. Clair) This document is a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety by using the link below: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/

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SECTION ONE OVERVIEW

OVERVIEW

Q4 2015

Throughout 2015, employment expanded in Region 6. Despite five consecutive years of growth, employment has yet to reach pre-recession levels. The year closed with 6,998 more individuals in jobs than in 2015, 1.9 percent annual growth. Employment estimates for Q4 show 369,766 individuals working, a level similar to early 2009. Employment in the region continues to grow gradually but has yet to reach pre-recession highs experienced in the early 2000s. While employment gains were positive in 2015, the region has a long way to go before strength in employment compares to fifteen years ago. Employers would need to add approximately 20,000 additional workers (about 5.5 percent growth from current levels) in order for employment to fully recover from over a decade of losses.

According to the typical business cycle, the fourth quarter of the year is often a time of slow labor market growth, and 2015 was no different. Employment increased but not as substantially as it did in the second quarter of 2015. Employment growth in Region 6 may be stalling because the labor force has been declining since 2013. Most recently, the labor force lost 1,439 individuals from 2014, a 0.4 percent drop.

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The labor force is the pool of workers from which companies can choose when hiring.

Traditionally, economists would expect the labor force to track employment. As companies need more workers, more individuals join the labor force in hopes of employment. Despite increased levels of employer demand and employment in 2015, the labor force has not responded as theory should suggest. Instead, the labor force has actually been shrinking. The labor force began a brief recovery period from 2011-2013, but has since began to decline again, making qualified, available talent a scarce resource for Region 6 employers.

As a result of increased employment and a slight drop in the labor force, the unemployment rate in the region fell over the year from an annual average of 8.4 percent in 2014 to 6.3 percent in 2015. The most recent estimate in November 2015 shows the region’s unemployment rate at 5.0 percent, just below the Michigan state average of 5.1 percent in the same month.

Throughout 2015 the labor force’s lack of growth has been a consistent topic of conversation.

Nationally, labor force participation is at its lowest levels since the 1970s.

An article from U.S. News & World Report sums up a few theories on the labor force changes well. “In a nutshell, the baby boomers have aged and are now finally retiring en masse. After bulging into the workplace in the 1970s, women are no longer the force in the labor market they once were. Younger people are opting to educate themselves rather than work. And a less-than-friendly tone toward immigrants is shrinking the supply for some high-skilled jobs.” http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/07/16/unemployment-is-low-but-moreworkers-are-leaving-the-workforce Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) highlighted by the Atlantic show than since the 1970s the workforce has grown faster than the population. This causes general economic expansion as more and more individuals are working. But, if the population does not catch up (and it has yet to) eventually there is a drop-off as workers retire and there are fewer people to take their places. Further evidence that this is the new normal for the labor force. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/07/october-1977-labor-forceparticipation/397595/ Typical of the fourth quarter, online job posting declined from Q3 to Q4 2015. During this time in 2015, online job ads declined by 29.5 percent from 8,240 to 5,813. Despite the drop, the total number of postings in 2015 remained roughly par with 2014 levels. For 2015, employer demand decreased by 4.3 percent as employers placed 1,289 less job ads than 2014.

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SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS

From Q3 2015 to Q4 2015, regional postings declined a substantial 29.5 percent, dropping from 8,240 to 5,813.

Online job ads typically drop from Q3 to Q4 each year as businesses reduce hiring activities during the holidays and into the new year. Postings in Q4 2015 were 23% lower than Q4 2014, one year ago.

Across the board, postings declined between Q3 and Q4 2015 save for Huron County, which experienced a 4.0 percent increase.

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TOTAL POSTINGS Q4 2015 Since Huron County accounted for a less than three percent share in total Region 6 postings during Q4, the small increase in online ads for the county did not have substantial influence on the overall number of postings. The multi-hundred decline in postings in Genesee and St. Clair Counties played a much larger role in the overall drop in online ads for the region. Compared to Q4 2014, just Genesee and Huron Counties had more online ads this past quarter.

Overall, 2015 employer demand in Region 6 was driven by Genesee and St. Clair counties. These two geographies represented 78.0 percent of online job ads in the region during Q4 2015.

SECTION THREE

OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYSIS

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HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks five key clusters regularly in Region 6, including advanced manufacturing (broken down by engineer/design occupations and skilled trades/technician occupations), health care, retail & hospitality, transportation-distribution-logistics (TDL), and agriculture.

Together, these clusters accounted for 56.7 percent of all Q4 2015 online ads in the region.

Compared to Q4 2014, three of the five occupation clusters experienced postings gains greater than 20 percent in Q4 2015. The advanced manufacturing cluster was split with a slight decline in skilled trades but a near 25 percent growth in demand for engineers.

In aggregate, postings in the WIN-analyzed clusters effectively grew at a moderate level between 2014 and 2015 despite overall postings in Region 6 plateauing. While postings fell from Q3 to Q4 2015, the drop was typical of the business cycle and does not necessarily indicate a declining trend. Employment continued to increase despite employer demand leveling off throughout the year.

Approximately 43 percent of postings were in clusters not analyzed by WIN. The most notable job postings outside of the WIN clusters occurred in the following occupations during Q4 2015: • Maintenance and repair workers • Laborers • Merchandise displayers • Health services managers • Administrative assistants See also the accompanying data tables for the county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.

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SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS

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THE REGION’S TOP 20 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE 4th QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1.

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Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (551 postings) Registered nurses (531 postings) Retail salespersons (321 postings) Customer service representatives (230 postings) First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (228 postings) Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products (156 postings) Maintenance and repair workers, general (119 postings) Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (108 postings) Merchandise displayers and window trimmers (97 postings) Nursing assistants (96 postings) Medical and health services managers (87 postings) Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food (85 postings) Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive (78 postings) Pharmacy technicians (73 postings) Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (69 postings) Cashiers (68 postings) Production workers, all other (68 postings) Light truck or delivery services drivers (63 postings) Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners (63 postings) First-line supervisors of food preparation and serving workers (63 postings)

The top in-demand occupations in Region 6 have been relatively unchanged for over a year running, but the occupations that compose the list shift in rank-order depending on the point in the business cycle. Truck drivers, registered nurses and retail salespersons are continually the top jobs in Region 6.

During Q4 2015, the most notable trends included: • Truck drivers remained the top posting jobs with ads increasing from 470 in Q3 to 551 in Q4 2015 (+17.0%). This has been the most in-demand occupation in Region 6 throughout 2015.

• Fifteen of the top twenty occupations from Q4 2014 remained in the top list for this past quarter. New to the top 20 include were secretaries, pharmacy technicians, LPNs, delivery service drivers, and janitors.

• Postings for childcare workers decreased from 246 in Q4 2014 to just 14 this past quarter (-94.3%) • Demand for registered nurses (RNs) continued its incessant rise with postings increasing from 369 in Q3 to 531 in Q4 2015 (+43.9%). This occupation accounted for over 38 percent of all online ads for health care occupations in Region 6 during this past quarter.

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SECTION FIVE

LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT • The current fourth quarter average estimate of 369,766 individuals employed was 0.7 percent (2,398 individuals) higher than the third quarter average of 367,766. Employment grew but slowed between Q3 and Q4 2015. Regional employment has been increasing steadily since the trough reached during the 2010 recession. From 2014-15, it climbed 1.9 percent, adding 6,998 jobs during the year.

• The regional labor force, as of November 2015, comprised 390,797 individuals.

• The fourth quarter average estimate of 390,002 individuals in the labor force is 0.2 percent (617 individuals) lower than the Q3 2015 average of 390,619 individuals.

• Between 2014-15, labor force participation dropped by 1,439 individuals (0.4 percent), once again marking decline after some modest post-recession growth.

• As of November 2015, the regional unemployment rate was estimated at 5.0 percent, compared to statewide average rate of 5.1 percent. The regional unemployment rate declined during 2015 mostly as a result of jobs gained. It has been steadily falling since the recession high in 2010 of 14.6percent, due to a combination of individuals gaining jobs and modest declines in the labor force.

*(NOTE: Employment data are from November 2015, the most recently available at the time of report writing.)

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NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between the previously released Q4 2013 report and the Q1 2014 report. All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

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ABOUT WIN

The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between nine community colleges and six Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN originally covered a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne when it was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011. In late 2015, the WIN partnership expanded to include a 16-county area adding Hillsdale, Huron, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties.

WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges

Michigan Works! Agencies

Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District

Detroit Employment Solutions Corp.

GST Michigan Works!

Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works!

Oakland County Michigan Works!

Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Southeast Michigan Works! Consortium

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SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q4 2015

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ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q4 2015

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HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q4 2015

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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q4 2015

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TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, AND LOGISTICS POSTINGS Q4 2015

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AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q4 2015

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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH

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