Quarterly report region 6 q2 2015 final

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 RPI REGION SIX 路 Q2 2015

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 6 includes 7 counties: Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola. This report focuses on the 7-county region as a whole.

SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015

Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers was the most in-demand occupation in Region 6 for the second consecutive quarter. Postings rose from 473 in Q1 to 706 in Q2 2015, a 50% increase. Similarly, demand for registered nurses continues to increase in the region. Postings for nurses increased from 271 in Q1 to 323 in Q2 (19%). Retail salesperson postings are also routinely high. While other top postings gained ground, online ads for these workers dropped from 296 in Q1 to 253 in Q2, a 14% decrease. These three occupations consistently top the list of most in-demand jobs within Region 6.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Both the labor force and employment increased between Q1 and Q2 2015 with employment growing at close to the average in Southeast Michigan and the labor force making negligible gain. The labor force increased by 345 individuals to 392,483 (0.1%) while employment grew by 4,667 individuals to 368,368 (1.3%). Since employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force, the 1.1 percentage point drop in unemployment (7.3% to 6.1%) between quarters can be entirely attributed to people gaining jobs. With that said, however, labor force levels is still under its recent peak of 394,024 individuals in Q3 2014.

While employment continues to grow each year the labor force has been relatively stable since 2011. Unless employers begin to hire more workers more often, it is unlikely that labor force participation will increase substantially in the near future.

EMPLOYER DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015

Online job postings bounced back during Q2 2015 after falling below 7,000 in Q1.

Ads increased by 11%, from 6,862 in Q1 to 7,618 in Q2. Postings have remained high relative to previous year after an initial spike in Q3 2013 (9,708 postings). Since then, posting levels have fluctuated around 7,000 over the last seven quarters.

Of the six occupational clusters analyzed by WIN in Region 6, three (Engineers & Designers, Health Care, and Transportation, Distribution & Logistics) experienced an increase in postings during Q2 2015 while the other three (Skilled Trades, Retail & Hospitality, and Agriculture) had a decrease in ads. The Health Care cluster saw the largest increase in number of postings as well as the largest growth in share of total postings.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

REGION SIX DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country.

In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 12,039 individuals in Region 6.

NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

The most in-demand skilled trade occupation in Region 6 was production workers during Q2 2015. This occupation saw postings nearly double from 35 in Q1 2015 to 68 in Q2. The second most in-demand occupation was first-line supervisors of production and operating workers with 50 online ads and had been the top skilled trades job since Q4 2014. This continued high level of posting indicates that employers are having difficulty filling these high-paying management positions. In contrast, postings for computer-controlled machinists decreased from 51 in Q1 to just 7 in Q2. Such a sudden drop in ads between quarters typically indicates that employers successfully found talent for open positions in the region.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

There was a marginal decrease in postings between Q1 and Q2 2015 for skilled trades in Region 6, shifting down from 309 to 289. Over the last five quarters postings for skilled trades occupations have only fluctuated by 7% in the region. This stability and high level of share in postings—in comparison to the national average—indicates there are plenty of job openings .

Region 6 has a competitive edge in the skilled trades with most in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. There are five skilled trade occupations with location quotients (LQ) equal to or greater than 2.2, meaning that the concentration of these workers in Region 6 is at least 120% higher than the rest of the U.S. on average. At the same time, however, the most in-demand job— production workers—has an LQ of 0.88, meaning that the concentration of these workers is just 88% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

About half of the most in-demand skilled trades occupations offer a median hourly rate above $15. Starting wages (10th percentile) are not as competitive, but all positions offer upward wage growth. Occupations that offer lower wages do provide experience necessary for in-demand supervisory rolls. Combining a post-secondary award with this experience would allow these workers to become first-line supervisors who can make a median hourly wage just under $27 per hour, or $56,000 per year.

Many skilled trade jobs do not require a degree but instead a special certification and on-the-job training. Technician positions require an associate’s degree in engineering while supervisory roles often require a post-secondary award that takes less than two years. Tool and die makers, the highest paying skilled trades jobs in Region 6, requires long-term-on the job training.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 3,185 employed individuals in Region 6. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

Industrial engineers replaced mechanical engineers as the most in-demand Region 6 Engineer and Design occupation with 71 online ads in Q2 2015.

Postings for industrial engineers more than doubled; Q1 2015 had just 29 ads in the region. In contrast, demand for mechanical engineers halved as postings went from 59 in Q1 to 32 in Q2 2015. Manufacturing engineers also had 32 online ads during Q2. These three occupations account for over one of every two online ads for Engineer and Designers in Region 6.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Q2 2015 marked the third consecutive quarter of posting growth for Engineers and Designers in Region 6. The 224 online ads during Q2 2015 was the highest amount for this cluster since Q1 2012’s 222 postings.

Despite the increased demand, just 2.9% of total postings in Region 6 are for the Engineer and Design cluster, compared to 8.4% of total postings in southeast Michigan.

While not as strong of a presence as the rest of southeast Michigan, Region 6 has higherthan-average concentrations of workers for six Engineer and Designer occupations. The two most in-demand jobs, industrial and mechanical engineers, have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.60, indicating that the concentration of these workers is 60% higher in Region 6 compared to the U.S. on average. In contrast, chemical, civil, and transportation engineers have LQ’s near 0.3, meaning that the concentration of these workers in Region 6 is just 30% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

Wages for engineers and designers are extremely competitive. Starting wages (10th percentile) are above $20 per hour for most top jobs in this cluster and nearly all are above $15 per hour. The high wages follow a need for higher education as most of the top jobs require a Bachelor’s degree. Drafters, which require associate’s degrees, have median wages ranging between $18 and $24 per hour.

Mechanical engineers had the most graduates of the most in-demand Engineer and Designer occupations in Region 6 with 180 in 2013. Industrial engineers had just 15 graduates in 2013, despite consistently being one of the most in-demand Engineering occupations in Region 6. Many employers likely recruit engineers from schools located outside of Region 6.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 6's largest with, 31,815 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.

Similar to other clusters, the top job in Health Care is consistent from quarter to quarter. Postings for registered nurses once again topped the list with 323 online ads in Q2 2015, up from 271 in Q1. This occupation has been the cluster’s most in-demand job for several years and posting growth occurs nearly every quarter. There is currently a bill on the state Senate floor that would allow nurses to complete a Bachelor’s degree at their local community college, alleviating the monetary and distance issues with attending a four-year university for many. Other top postings for Health Care in Region 6 include speech-language pathologists (105 ads) and nursing assistants (102 ads).

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Q2 2015 marked the second consecutive quarter of posting growth for the Health Care cluster in Region 6. Online ads rose from 1,096 in Q1 to 1,319 in Q2, a 20% increase. Postings for the Health Care cluster will likely surpass Q3 2013’s peak of 1,414 ads as demand growth continues, in particular for occupations like registered nurses.

Health Care is a sector that grows in concentration and demand as the local population increases and ages (demanding more services) and as universities and hospitals diversify and increase their reputation for destination care. Both of these are occurring in Michigan with demand for health services increase (as the population ages) and as universities and other hospitals become places of choice for others seeking care from outside the region.

The higher concentration of health care workers is evident in their location quotients with 10 of the 15 most in-demand occupations having higher concentration in Region 6 than the U.S. on average. Pharmacists, for example, have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.58, meaning that the concentration of these workers is 58% higher in Region 6 than the national average. In contrast, speechlanguage pathologists—the second most in-demand Health Care occupation in Region 6—has an LQ of just 0.78, indicating that the concentration of these workers in Region 6 is just 78% of the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

Many health care jobs are a pathway into the middle class and others, those that require graduate-level training, boast very high salaries. Many workers see the high wage potential and are enrolling in health programs, however, there is still a shortage of many health care workers as evidenced by high posting levels and employment growth.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 77,414 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 6.

Retail salespersons, like in many other regions, once again topped the list of most indemand Retail & Hospitality occupations. Unlike other regions, however, postings for retail salespersons have been decreasing for multiple quarters. The 253 online ads in Q2 2015 mark a 14.5% drop from the 296 postings in Q1. Demand increased in Q2 for the second top job, sales representatives for wholesale and manufacturing products. Postings rose from 197 in Q1 to 232 in Q2, an 18% increase. Postings for first-line supervisors of retail workers remained high in Q2 (203 ads), indicating that employers are continually searching for workers in these higher-wage management positions.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Q2 2015 represented the third consecutive quarter of decline in postings for the Retail & Hospitality cluster in Region 6. Online job ads for this cluster have been on a downward trajectory since Q4 2013.

The 1,657 postings in Q2 2015 marked a 5.3% decline from the 1,750 ads in Q1. Despite the lack of growth, Retail & Hospitality remains a significant part of Region 6’s economy as the cluster accounts for 21.8% of all postings.

Like other services such as health care, the demand for Retail & Hospitality occupations increases as the population grows and has more money to spend in the economy. Ten of the fifteen most in-demand Retail & Hospitality occupations in Region 6 have location quotients (LQ) greater than 1.0, meaning that the concentration of these workers is greater than the U.S. on average. For example, cashiers have an LQ of 1.23, indicating that the concentration of these workers in Region 6 is 23% higher than the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

Workers do not typically pursue Retail and Hospitality jobs due to wages, which are relatively low. These jobs do, however, offer great flexibility and have a relatively low barrier to entry.

They are often the first step for workers into the labor force where they can learn valuable skills that translate to other occupations that earn a higher wage.

Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require higher education, but many require specialized on-the-job training.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS Transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) workers help move materials in an efficient manner whether it is from one company to another or directly to a consumer. Logistics workers range from materials movers to logisitics analysts, coordinating and analyzing material and goods movement. With I-69 cooridor running straight through Region 7, TDL jobs are important to watch. In 2014, 30,083 workers were employer in the region in TDL occupations.

Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers have dominated Transportation, Distribution and Logistics (TDL) postings in Region 6 each quarter in recent years and Q2 2015 was no different. Online job ads for this occupation reached 706 in Q2, up from 473 in Q1. This level of posting surpassed Q4, 2014’s record of 627 online ads. The constant high number of postings for this occupation strongly indicates that employers are having tremendous difficulty finding individuals to fill their open positions.

TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP JOBS

TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Postings for TDL occupations rose from 655 in Q1 to 895 in Q2 2015. The number of TDL postings is heavily dependent on ads for truck drivers. For example, truck driver postings accounted for nearly four of every five TDL ads in Q2 2015. Since postings reached a record high for truck drivers this past quarter, so too did TDL online ads.

Nine of the fifteen most in-demand TDL occupations in Region 6 have a location quotient greater than 1.0. For example, industrial truck and tractor operators have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.42, meaning that the concentration of these workers is 42% greater in Region 6 than the U.S. on average. In contrast, freight and cargo inspectors have an LQ of just 0.32, indicating that their concentration in Region 6 is just 32% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

While starting wages (10th percentile) for TDL occupations are low, the majority of these occupations have median hourly earnings greater than $15 offering wage growth with experience.

Many of these occupations do not require education beyond high school but rather short-term on-the-job training once they have begun working. Truck drivers require a postsecondary non-degree award in order to obtain their license. While there were 762 postings for truck drivers in 2013, there were only 80 graduates in Region 6. This disparity most likely increased in 2014 where there were 1,377 postings (2014 graduation numbers have not yet been released).

TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 12,759 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 6.

Sales representatives for technical and scientific products maintained the top posting occupation spot for Agriculture in Region 6 this past quarter despite a decline in online ads. Postings decreased from 66 in Q1 2015 to 44 in Q2, a 33% drop. The next most in-demand occupation was landscaping and groundskeeping workers with 27 postings. This was also the second top job in Q1 with 32 online ads.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Posting trends are difficult to discern because of no recognizable patterns, or business cycles present in the data. The number of postings fluctuate often between quarters as many agriculture employers do not all utilize online postings in the same manner. Whereas online ads for the Agriculture cluster increased between Q1 and Q2 in 2013 and 2014, postings decreased in 2015. Online ads declined from 189 in Q1 2015 to 168 in Q2 but remain higher than historical averages. Postings for Agriculture occupations account for only 2.2% of all online job ads in the region.

Seven of the fifteen most in-demand Agriculture occupations have a location quotient greater than 1.0, meaning that the concentration of those workers is greater than the nation on average. For example, the location quotient (LQ) is 4.21 for pesticide handlers, indicating that the concentration of these workers is 321% higher in Region 6 than the U.S. on average. In contrast, the most indemand occupation (sales representatives for technical and scientific products) have an LQ of 0.49, meaning that the concentration of these workers is just 49% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult.

Most of the entry-level wages (10th percentile) are below $15 per hour, however, nearly half of these occupations offer wages above that level with median hourly earnings. Most agriculture occupations require a high school degree or less along with short to moderate-term on-the-job training to learn the necessary skills for these occupations. The higher wage occupations in this cluster often require a degree beyond high school.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES

TOP 15 JOBS RECENT GRADUATES AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

Both the labor force and employment increased between Q1 and Q2 2015 with employment growing at close to the average in Southeast Michigan and the labor force making negligible gain. The labor force increased by 345 individuals to 392,483 (0.1%) while employment grew by 4,667 individuals to 368,368 (1.3%).

Employment increased at a greater rate than the labor force, thus the 1.1 percentage point drop in unemployment (7.3% to 6.1%) between quarters can be entirely attributed to people gaining jobs. With that said, however, labor force participation is still under its recent peak of 394,024 individuals in Q3 2014.

While employment continues to grow each year the labor force has been relatively stable since 2011. Unless employers begin to hire more workers more often, it is unlikely that labor force participation will increase substantially in the near future.

Online job postings bounced back during Q2 2015 after falling below 7,000 in Q1. Ads increased by 11%, from 6,862 in Q1 to 7,618 in Q2. Postings have remained high relative to previous year after an initial spike in Q3 2013 (9,708 postings). Since then, posting levels have fluctuated around 7,000 over the last seven quarters.

Of the six occupational clusters analyzed by WIN in Region 6, three (Engineers & Designers, Health Care, and Transportation, Distribution & Logistics) experienced an increase in postings during Q2 2015 while the other three (Skilled Trades, Retail & Hospitality, and Agriculture) had a decrease in ads..

Postings for retail salespersons have been decreasing for multiple quarters. The 253 online ads in Q2 2015 mark a 14.5% drop from the 296 postings in Q1. Since online ads for retail salespersons typically dominate Retail & Hospitality postings, a consequence has been a decline in ads for the cluster as well.

Of total online job postings in Region 6, 59.7% are from one of the six target occupation groups.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

• Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County.

• All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data.

• Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank.

• Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report.

• Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports.

• Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations.

• Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

• Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them.

• WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry.

• By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH