Q1 2015 data summary win region reduced pdf

Q1 2015

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT DATA SUMMARY

CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment WIN Board Organizations Data Tables

JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 1st QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 1st quarter (Q1) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the 9 counties of Southeast Michigan (Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, Wayne) and the City of Detroit.

The following pages include a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety on our wesbite: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/

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Q1 2015

SECTION ONE OVERVIEW

OVERVIEW The WIN region’s labor market is set to expand as job postings reach new highs in Q1 2015.

Total job postings in the region reached new highs this quarter with 106,476 online ads posted by local employers. Postings have remained high relative to previous years after an initial spike in Q3 2013. That spike turned out to be the start of a new trend of higher posting levels with Q1 2015 as the new peak.

Postings tend to fall from Q1 to Q2 and that may still occur in the coming quarter. While a drop in postings is expected, they are expected to remain high as employers continue to increase employment levels.

Every cluster analyzed in the region experienced gains this quarter with all clusters adding more than 1,000 postings or more to Q4 2014 levels. Information Technology added the most postings and grew the most (6,279 additional job ads, 45% growth over Q4 2014). 100% of the growth in online job ads can be explained by the five clusters analyzed by WIN. Employment peaked in December 2014 at 2,292,966 individuals employed, a positive trend of growth is continuing and expected to carry on through 2015. Though 2015 data has been released, it is not yet comparable to previous data trends because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recalibrated their model and the historical data has not been retroactively adjusted. Because of this, WIN cannot make comparisons between historical trends and the new 2015 information.

WIN predicts that Q1 will follow previous trends with employment levels falling slighting in comparison to the previous Q4 high. This happens each year as part of the typical business cycle as holiday-related employment fades. WIN Executive Director, Lisa Katz, notes, “2014 was an exciting year because employment grew to levels not seen since before the recession. While 2015 data is not yet comparable to historical trends, we predict that 2015 will follow suit with 2014 and show even more employment growth.”

While previous BLS data shows that employment is inching upward, the labor force is near a stand-still with minimal change since 2012. Unless employers start hiring more workers in droves, it is unlikely that labor force participation will increase much in the near future.

Lisa Katz, WIN Executive Director, commented, “The labor force participation rate is a problem for employers in the region. With high demand for workers but a smaller pool to choose from, companies are struggling to fill vacant positions with the right candidate. Job postings are at an all-time high which indicates even higher employment in the not-so-far future. Hopefully more hiring will encourage workers to get back into the game.”

As interest rates remain low but the purchasing managers index and consumer confidence creep up, employment should continue to expand. Katz added, “increasing consumer confidence and the rise of the purchasing managers index combined with very high job posting levels indicate that the Southeast Michigan labor market will continue to ride the wave of recovery and hopefully pick up the pace soon.”

The notable trends that could affect future job demand include: • The Federal Reserve has lowered the economic outlook as employment has not grown as fast as originally projected. This mainly affects interest rates which have been held low to encourage borrowing and spending until employment increases to a stronger position. http://www.reuters.com/ article/2015/04/29/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0NK09F20150429 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) is above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The current rate of growth is faster than the already quickly growing 2014 rates. http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm? navItemNumber=12942 • Consumer confidence as surveyed by University of Michigan shows an increasing pattern throughout Q1 2015 and into Q2 2015. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

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SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS

Regional postings increased by 14.9% between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015.

While the region saw growth, employers did not increase postings in every county. Postings grew the most in Oakland (28.2% growth), Macomb (21.8% growth), and Livingston (25.4% growth).

While these counties were the largest in terms of growth percentage, the counties that contributed the most postings to the overall growth of the region were Oakland (accounting for 53.8% of the region’s increase), Wayne (accounting for 19.4% of the region’s increase, 12.7% in the City of Detroit), and Macomb (15.2% of the region’s increase).

Several counties did not experience posting growth. Genesee & Shiawassee counties, Monroe County, and St. Clair County experienced a drop in postings primarily driven by falling demand for retail & hospitality workers.

TOTAL POSTINGS Q1 2015

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SECTION THREE

OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYSIS WIN tracks four key occupational clusters regularly, including advanced manufacturing (broken down by engineering/design occupations and skilled trades/technician occupations), health care, information technology, and retail and hospitality.

On a regional level, postings grew across all WIN-tracked job clusters this quarter with increases across the board. Contributing the most to overall demand growth was IT, with a 59.1% increase in postings from 10,626 to 16,905, responsible for 45% of all posting growth in the region. Postings for engineers and designers along with health care workers also increased substantially, with both contributing 20% to total demand growth and increasing by 47.7% and 24.7%, respectively.

See the accompanying data tables for county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.

POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER

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SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS

THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1.

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3.

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Software Developers, Applications (5,090 postings) Registered Nurses (3,707 postings) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (3,158 postings) Retail Salespersons (2,569 postings) Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (2,560 postings) Customer Service Representatives (1,914 postings) Mechanical Engineers (1,815 postings) First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (1,795 postings) Computer Systems Analysts (1,679 postings) Managers, All Other (1,486 postings)

The WIN region’s top in-demand occupations have been relatively unchanged for over a year running, but the occupations shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle.

Software developers - applications, registered nurses, retail salespersons, and heavy and tractortrailer truck drivers are the top in-demand positions once again. This quarters demand for software developers outpaces all other jobs with 5,090 online ads. Demand for truck drivers dropped from 4,123 postings in Q4 2014 to 3,158 postings in Q1 2015, moving it from 1st to 3rd place. Postings for registered nurses, a consistently high poster, increased from 2,713 in Q4 2014 to 3,707 in Q1 2015 marking a new high for the occupation.

Every cluster analyzed in the region experienced gains this quarter with all clusters adding 1,000 postings or more to Q4 2014 levels. IT added the most postings and grew the most (6,279 additional job ads, 45% growth over Q4 2014). 100% of the growth in online job ads can be explained by the five clusters analyzed by WIN.

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SECTION FIVE

LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT 2014 was a time of limited expansion in employment and almost no change in the labor force.

The annual average employment in the region in 2014 was 2,262,136 individuals with an available labor force of 2,560,075. Employment peaked in December 2014 at 2,292,966 individuals, a positive trend of growth is continuing. Q1 levels tend to drop relative to Q4 peaks as holiday employment fades and WIN projects that early 2015 data, once released, will follow that trend.

While employment is inching upward, the labor force is at a stand-still with minimal change since 2012. Unless employers start hiring more workers in droves, it is unlikely that labor force participation will increase much in the near future.

The WIN region’s unemployment rate was an average 8.0% during 2014, a 1.5 percentage point drop from 2013’s average rate of 9.5%. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due entirely to job gains.

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ABOUT WIN The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between nine community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.

WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges

Michigan Works! Agencies

Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District

Detroit Employment Solutions Corp.

Genesee-Shiawassee Michigan Works!

Livingston County Michigan Works!

Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works!

Oakland County Michigan Works!

Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Washtenaw County Michigan Works!

NOTES: Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@winsemich.org. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: http:// www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm

Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network.

Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

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BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q1 2015

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ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q1 2015

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POSTINGS Q1 2015

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HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q1 2015

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RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q1 2015

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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH