Monroe q4 2014 report

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 MONROE COUNTY 路 Q4 2014

CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality

GEOGRAPHY

WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne. This report focuses on Monroe County.

Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources

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SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND October - December 2014

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is the top posting occupation with 148 postings, continuing its rise over the past few quarters not only in Monroe County but across the WIN region as well. For the second consecutive quarter Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food and Retail Salespersons round out the top three jobs. Almost half of the top occupations in this county are in retail and hospitality, which experience high levels of turnover and post frequently to maintain a certain level of employment. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is the top posting occupation for the WIN region because employers are experiencing shortages in the workforce and are continually posting in search of qualified workers.

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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYMENT DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2014

Labor force participation in Monroe County has fell for the second consecutive quarter. This is not unusual as historical trends have peaks in Q2 and troughs in Q4. There was a -0.7% change between Q3 and Q4 2014. Despite the decrease, annual labor force participation for 2014 will be the county’s highest since 2010.

Employment in the county increased above 68,000 during Q4 2014 for the first time since late 2008.

Like the labor force, employment continues along a positive trend after reaching low points in 2011.

This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 2 percentage points, decreasing the overall unemployment percentage in Monroe County from 6.8% in Q3 to 4.8% in Q4. The WIN region average is 6.5% for Q4. Monroe County has the second-lowest unemployment rate out of the nine WIN region counties. Because employment is increasing at a greater rate than labor force participation, the decrease in the unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs.

Like the WIN region in 2013, Monroe County online job postings peaked in Q3 2013 but decreased sharply in Q4 2013. Following that drop, posting frequency increased by 3.24% between Q4 2013 and Q3 2014, on average. The positive trend continued this quarter where the number of job ads posted online by Monroe County employers increased from 1,558 in Q3 to 1,834 in Q4—a 17.72% increase. Next quarter will be indicative of whether the county can sustain this large growth in postings or if it will return to modest increases each quarter.

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EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

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SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

MONROE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 104,229 individuals in the WIN region. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

The top two postings in the skilled trades and technicians cluster are First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers and Production Workers, All Other with 15 postings each. The next most prevalent occupation postings are for Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers (12 postings), Welders, cutters, and Welder-Fitters (10 postings) and Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic (9 postings). These occupations also made the top five for Q3 2014.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Monroe County employers posted 90 online job ads for skilled trade and technicians positions in Q4 2014. Posting growth was flat over the last year, only fluctuating between 85 and 92 since Q4 2013. These jobs are not traditionally posted online but are often filled through unions, hiring halls, or word of mouth. The trend is shifting though, with more and more employers turning to online postings to find qualified workers. Skilled trades and technicians hold 4.9% of total postings in Monroe County.

Skilled trade employment in Monroe County is currently at 2,637 workers. Like many occupational groups, employment in skilled trades has been steadily increasing since the 2009-10 trough. Employment has not recovered to prerecession levels, and growth has been slow. Between 2013 and 2014, only 47 individuals have joined employment in the skilled trades cluster. Growth has been relatively steady, but employment still would need to grow by more than 20% to reach pre-recession levels from 2005 (3,294 workers).

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 74,198 employed individuals in Southeast Michigan. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

The top posting job in the engineering & design occupational cluster is Mechanical Engineers (16 postings) for the third consecutive quarter. Other top jobs include Industrial Engineers (7 postings), Electrical Engineers (5 postings) and Nuclear Engineers (5 postings). Together these top four occupations represent more than half of all job postings in this occupation cluster for Monroe County.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Postings for engineering & design occupations decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter in Monroe County. Since Q3 2013, postings for this cluster have decreased by about 13%, on average. Engineering & design postings represent 2.7% of all postings in Monroe County.

Engineering and design employment has been following a similar trend to other occupational groups in the past decade: reaching an all-time low in 2009 and 2010, followed by a steady increase. Current employment in this cluster rests at 1,480 and is on a strong upward trajectory. Each year, employment in this sector has increased, and in 2012, surpassed the2005 pre-recession peak (1,247 workers). Engineering and design employment has experienced several jumps up since then. Between Q2 2014 and the current quarter, employment increased by 65 individuals, and the future looks bright for continued growth.

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS WAGES

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ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS:TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services.

While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2014, IT occupational employment was 74,309 in the WIN region. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

Postings for Computer User Support Specialists are the most prevalent in this cluster in Q4 2014 with 13 postings. Other top postings include Computer Systems Analysts (11 postings), Software Developers, Applications (nine postings) and Database Administrators (nine postings). These four occupations account for 50% of IT postings in Monroe County for Q4.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

IT postings increased by nine this quarter from 55 to 64 postings. IT postings are not as prevalent in Monroe County as they are in many other WIN region counties. This occupation cluster has a low share of total postings, just 3.5%.

Following a trend seen in many of the occupational groups WIN studies, IT employment in Monroe County hit a low in 2009-2010, and has since been growing steadily. Current employment is at 365-- a modest share of total employment, but growing. Employment has almost recovered to pre-recession levels, when 391 individuals were employed in 2007 at the pre-recession peak.

Employment will likely surpass these levels in 2015 if current growth continues.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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HEALTH CARE

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with 243,782 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing; more health care workers are needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.

Like the WIN region, Registered Nurses hold the top posting occupation with 24 postings. This is the third consecutive quarter in which Registered Nurses are the top posting occupation. The second-most posted occupation is Nursing Assistants with 16 postings. These two occupations represent about one in every three postings related to health care in Monroe County for Q4 2014.

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HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Since a peak in Q3 2013 with 181 job postings Monroe County’s health care sector has fluctuated between 119-138 postings per quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter in which the number of postings has increased. Health care represents 6.9% of all online job ads in Monroe County.

Health care employment, as in many other counties, has steadily risen since 2005 and was not affected by the recession as other occupational groups were. Health care employment has not decreased in any year since data is studied, making it a “recession proof” occupation group. In 2005, 3,024 individuals were employed in health care jobs; now that number is at 3,623. Growth seems to be slowing down in the past year, but the general trend is still positive.

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS WAGES

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HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 632,825 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in the region.

Retail and hospitality postings represent, by far, the largest share of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN. Top jobs in Monroe County include Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (64 postings), Retail Salesperson (62 postings), Customer Service Representation (49 postings) and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (43 postings). These four occupations account for over 40% of all retail and hospitality postings in Monroe County.

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS AND EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Retail and hospitality online postings have generally been growing since Q4 2012 with a major peak in Q3 2013 with 570 postings. While retail and hospitality posting behavior is often due to turn-over in staff and not significant job growth, this is the first time postings have increased from Q3 to Q4, signaling a potential for employment growth. Retail and hospitality postings represent 27.5% of all postings making this cluster the largest posting cluster in Monroe County.

Retail and hospitality occupational employment is currently at 13,246 and growing. Growth has been strong in this cluster with employment surpassing the pre-recession 2006 peak of 12,751 workers. Employment was at its lowest in 2011 (11,442) but the post-recession come back has been strong and looks to be a positive trend.

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS WAGES

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RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT REQUIREMENTS

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SECTION THREE

LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY

SECTION FOUR

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

Labor force participation in Monroe County has fell for the second consecutive quarter. This is not unusual as historical trends have peaks in Q2 and troughs in Q4.

There was a -0.7% change between Q3 and Q4 2014. Despite the decrease, annual labor force participation for 2014 will be the county’s highest since 2010.

Employment in the county increased above 68,000 during Q4 2014 for the first time since late 2008. Like the labor force, employment continues along a positive trend after reaching low points in 2011.

This quarter, the number of unemployed workers dropped 2 percentage points, decreasing the overall unemployment percentage in Monroe County from 6.8% in Q3 to 4.8% in Q4. The WIN region average is 6.5% for Q4. Monroe County has the second-lowest unemployment rate out of the nine WIN region counties. Because employment is increasing at a greater rate than labor force participation, the decrease in the unemployment rate is, at least in part, due to people gaining jobs.

The number of job ads posted online by Monroe County employers increased from 1,558 in Q3 to 1,834 in Q4 2014—a 17.72% increase.

45.5% of online job postings in Livingston County are for jobs in one of the five occupation groups analyzed by WIN.

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DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

• Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County.

• All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data.

• Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank.

• Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report.

• Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports.

• Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm

UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations.

• Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs.

• Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them.

• WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry.

• By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH