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WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 HILLSDALE COUNTY Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary

CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture

Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on Hillsdale County.

SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the latter half of 2015, Hillsdale Countyâ€™s unemployment rate was consistently below the state average of 5.1%. (See pages 9-11) The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in November 2015, which is the lowest rate Hillsdale County has seen throughout all of 2015. Sub-5.0% rates have been the norm each month since August 2015. However, these unemployment drops are due to a shrinking labor force more so than job gains. Looking only at unemployment may invite a false sense of improvement.

Online job ads the region through 2015 continue the positive growth trend in employer demand. (See page 8) 2015 marks another year of postings close to 300, above previous averages. Online job ads dropped by 50 postings, a 13.7 %, from 365 in Q3 2015 to 1315 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an long-run increasing trend despite the recent drop. Over the past eight quarters, however, postings look to be leveling averaging close to 300.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Postings for registered nurses increased during Q4 2015 despite drops in demand for many other workers. (See page 7) During the fourth quarter of 2015, truck drivers maintained the top posting position. Postings for truck drivers declined by nine postings (17.6%) from the third quarter to the fourth. During the same time period, postings for registered nurses grew by from 14 postings to 26, 85.7% growth. Postings for nurses led the way for overall Health Care cluster demand growth. Employment gains continue for engineers in Hillsdale County but have a long way to go before pre-recession highs are met. (See pages 23-30) Engineering and Design cluster employment increased 2.4%, growing my seven workers between 2014 and 2015. Growth in this cluster has been slow but steady since the recession trough of 2009. While jobs are increasing, the county must add another 155% (50% increase) before employment reaches the 2001 pre-recession peak level.

Health Care cluster postings are at the highest levels recorded. (See pages 39-46) Bucking the trend in other clusters, Health Care cluster postings are at the highest levels recorded. With 88 postings in Q4 2015, postings reached yet another new high after Q3â€™s 71 postings. Postings grew 23.9% with 17 additional postings between Q3 and Q4 2015. Compared to Q4 2014, postings have increased nearly three-fold growing 193% from 30 postings in Q4 2014.

SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

During the fourth quarter of 2015, truck drivers maintained the top posting position. Postings for truck drivers declined by nine postings (17.6%) from the third quarter to the fourth. During the same time period, postings for registered nurses grew by from 14 postings to 26, 85.7% growth. Postings have remained relatively stable between Q3 2015, with the same top three posting positions running two quarters in a row. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014), the top jobs have shifted dramatically with only eight of last yearâ€™s top postings on the list in Q4 2015. Notable changes include the addition of more IT-related occupations (computer systems analysts and software developers) as well as more medical occupations. No longer in the top jobs are many food service related jobs. 7

EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

Online job ads dropped by 50 postings, a 13.7 %, from 365 in Q3 2015 to 1315 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an long-run increasing trend despite the recent drop. Over the past eight quarters, however, postings look to be leveling averaging close to 300. Employment is has also started to plateau highlighting the similar pattern between online job ads and employment.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Employment in Hillsdale has started to plateau with modest changes between 2014 and 2015 and between Q3 2015 and Q4 2015. Typical business cycle shifts still exist in December/January and July/August of each year but 2015 shows less dramatic peaks and troughs. The labor force remains rather stagnant and is not seeing the same level of growth as employment in the years since the recession. The labor force has declined by almost 1,000 individuals since 2010. The unemployment rate has continued to fall with seasonal spikes, which match employment declines.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW The labor force in Hillsdale County declined 0.8% to 20,159 from Q3 to Q4 2015, down from 20,315 (a drop of 156 individuals. Employment levels shifted little, declining by 0.1% (losing 11 workers) during the same time period. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in November 2015, which is the lowest rate Hillsdale County has seen throughout all of 2015. Sub-5.0% rates have been the norm each month since August 2015. However, these unemployment drops are due to a shrinking labor force more so than job gains.

SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

HILLSDALE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ€™s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 1,501 individuals in Hillsdale County. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Welders fell from the top posting position to the fourth position in the fourth quarter of 2015 while production workers, supervisors, and welding machinists made up the top three jobs. Postings declined for most occupations except the top jobs, production workers postings remained at five from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015, and postings for welding machinists and inspectors increased from two postings to three. The decrease in overall postings was anticipated as Q4 postings are historically lower than Q3 each year. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted and there are more jobs in the top postings list. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are mechanical engineering technicians and forging machinists. New to the list in the past year are cutters/trimmers, manufacturing production technicians, previous metal workers, welding machinists, and molding/casting workers.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster dropped by nine postings, -23.7%, from 38 in Q3 2015 to 29 in Q4 2015. At 9.2% of total postings in the county, the Skilled Trades cluster is one of the largest analyzed by WIN researchers. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year. In general, postings for skilled workers are still at an average of 30 per quarter with only a few outliers (Q3 2013) from this trend line. Employment is also at a plateau indicating that most postings are likely due to turnover rather than new job growth.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Skilled Trade and Technician occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 1,501 in 2015. Skilled Trades cluster employment increased 1.7% adding 19 workers from 2014 to 2015. Though employment in this cluster is still below the pre-recession level of 2,243 (2001), it is more than 50% higher than the recession trough of 969 (2009). Growth in this cluster is slow and the past several years have shown employment starting to plateau. The net employment gain has been steady over the past four years (108 more workers employed in 2015 compared to 2011), with about six online job ads in for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job in 2015. On average, employers of skilled trade workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Hillsdale County and are likely to use other recruiting methods when looking for qualified candidates.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Most occupations within the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster offer upward mobility in wages, with a few offering wages over $15 per hour to start, but the majority are closer to $10 per hour. Many occupations in this cluster offer wages over $15 per hour at the median, with some offering over $25 per hour. Wages for most skilled trades occupations in southeast Michigan show that experience is required in order to earn a high wage. Wages for the skilled trades in southeast Michigan are modestly higher than the U.S. on average.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ€™s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ€™s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Skilled Trades cluster with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have a LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 5.85 times (485% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Many skilled trade occupations do not require a formal degree, but most employers want to see specialized training beyond a high school diploma. This is not always reflected in data on required education and training. Most skilled trade jobs require several years of on-the-job training. Several skilled trade occupations require a two-year associateâ€™s degree or training in a registered apprenticeship. For many occupations, the level of education required aligns with higher wages. Tool and die makers and production supervisors are examples of this, as they require more training, pay a higher starting wage, and provide more opportunities for upward mobility.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 297 employed individuals in Hillsdale County during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Industrial engineers top the list in this cluster with five postings (up from two postings in Q3 2015) and moving the occupation from the third most in-demand to the first. Since Q4 2014, one year ago, chemical engineers are no longer a top in-demand occupation nor are mechanical engineers. Few postings in Hillsdale County are for engineers and designers, this cluster is one of the smallest analyzed by WIN in the county with 3.2% of postings.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Engineers and Design cluster dropped by two postings, -16.7%, from 12 in Q3 2015 to 10 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Postings in the Engineers & Designers cluster have started to plateau over the past six quarters, averaging about ten postings per quarter following peak posting levels in 2013 and early 2014. Employment in the Engineers and Designers cluster is also nearly flat, indicating that job growth in this cluster is unlikely in the near future.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Engineering and Design occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 297 in 2015. Engineering and Design cluster employment increased 2.4%, growing my seven workers between 2014 and 2015. Growth in this cluster has been slow but steady since the recession trough of 2009. While jobs are increasing, the county must add another 155% (50% increase) before employment reaches the 2001 pre-recession peak level. There were 6 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of eight postings per net new job. While posting levels have dropped, modest employment gains continue.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS WAGES

Wages for engineers and designers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth among the occupations comprising the engineer and design cluster include industrial engineers, manufacturing engineers, and electrical engineers. Wages for engineers and designers in southeast Michigan are nearly equivalent to national averages in the same occupations.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ€™s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ€™s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Engineering and Design occupations with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Industrial engineers have the highest LQ of the top jobs in Hillsdale County with an LQ of 3.61, meaning there is a 261% high concentration of these workers in southeast Michigan than the nation on average. Civil engineers have an LQ under one. A lowerer LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in engineering and design fields were most prevalent in electrical and industrial engineering. Fewer graduates completed training as civil and manufacturing engineers. With hiring at its current strong rate across the region and employer demand remaining high, the current supply of new engineers does not meet demand. Hillsdale County employers are competing with companies across the region for talent. More trained workers are needed to fill open positions.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand engineering and design occupation requires at least a two-year degree or apprenticeship for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ€™s degree. While work experience is not an explicit requirement for these occupations, in general, many employers require an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience before hiring an applicant. This is true even at the entry level.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2015, IT occupational employment was 130 in Hillsdale County. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Similar to the Engineers & Designers cluster, the IT cluster is one of the smallest analyzed by WIN with 3.2% of total postings in Hillsdale County. Software developers are now the top posting IT job in the county with four postings, this occupation was no on the top jobs in Q3 2015 and is up from one posting in Q3 2014 one year ago. The second most indemand job, computer systems analysts, with three postings was also not on the list in Q3 2015. With such a small cluster, the top jobs shift dramatically each quarter. Compared to one year ago, Q4 2014, only software developers remains a top posting job.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

IT postings changed little between Q3 and Q4 2015 dropping from 11 to eight postings. This cluster does not often have high posting levels and does not following a season trend like many other clusters in the county. Compared to Q4 in 2014, 2013, and 2012 postings are at similar levels shifting between seven and nine postings during Q4 each year. Like engineering and skilled trades, employment is following postings with little change in jobs over the past several years.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Information Technology occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 130 in 2015, growing 2.4% (adding only 3 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Employment in this cluster is still well below prerecession peak of 238 (2002) by over 100 workers. There have been little notable growth since 2009. In 2015 employers posted 13 ads per net new worker, high posting intensity. Employers seeking information technology workers in Hillsdale County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates as displayed by the high posting intensity and low employment gain.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS WAGES

Wages for information technology workers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour and a few start at over $25 per hour, which translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth across the career spectrum is experienced by, applications software developers and computer systems analysts. Wages for IT workers in southeast Michigan are below national averages for the same occupations indicating potential growth for pay in the future as workers are more in-demand.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ€™s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ€™s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Information Technology occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Software developers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .90, 10% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand IT fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees related to software developers and business intelligence analysts (in-demand jobs in nearly every county in the region). Hillsdale County employers are competing with companies across the region for talent.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand IT occupation requires a bachelorâ€™s degree. With demand growing across the region and few graduates completing programs, Hillsdale employers are likely to have trouble finding qualified IT workers.

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 6,548 employees in 2015 in Hillsdale County. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Health Care cluster jobs in Hillsdale County are growing rapidly with postings for nearly every occupation growing between Q3 and Q4 2015 and sine Q4 2014 one year ago. Physical therapists were the top posted job in Q4 2015 holding its top position since Q3 2015. Postings for this occupation grew 27.3% (6 more postings) between the third and fourth quarters of 2015. Postings for registered nurses, the second most in-demand job, nearly double growing from 14 postings on Q3 2015 to 26 postings in Q4 2015. Compared to one year ago, postings have shifted. Notably, different physicians and medical specialists are in the top jobs such a hospitalists, physicians and surgeons, veterinarians, and medical sonographers.

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Bucking the trend in other clusters, Health Care cluster postings are at the highest levels recorded. With 88 postings in Q4 2015, postings reached yet another new high after Q3â€™s 71 postings. Postings grew 23.9% with 17 additional postings between Q3 and Q4 2015. Compared to Q4 2014, postings have increased nearly three-fold growing 193% from 30 postings in Q4 2014. Health Care employment is on a downward trend in the county despite a small increase over the past year. If employers continue posting at high levels employment should rise in the coming year or two. Health Care postings represent 27.9% of total online postings in the county, the largest share of any cluster.

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Health Care occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 964 workers in 2015. Health care employment increased 1.8% (17 workers) from 2014 to 2015. While postings have been rapidly increasing in this cluster, employment has been declining steadily for over a decade. With two different trends in postings and employment, health care job postings are likely meant to address turnover rather than job growth.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for health care workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at a wage well above $20 per hour, some of the more entry-level occupations start workers closer to $10 per hour. There is considerable wage growth with more education in this field. A worker experiences an exponential increase in wages when advancing from a medical assistant position to an RN or a physician. While some health care jobs are not high paying at the onset, they do offer upward mobility with experience. Wages for health care workers in the region are generally on par with national averages. For lower level occupations, nursing assistants, medical assistants, etc. wages are below national averages.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ€™s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ€™s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Health Care occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Physical therapists have a LQ of 1.37, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.37 times (37% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .65, 35% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand health care fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees in nursing but there is a disconnect between the level of degree required for nursing and the level of degree graduates attain. Many individuals choose to complete a two-year degree in nursing to become an LPN. Most health systems and hospitals now require a higher share of their nursing staff to hold four-year degrees. This, and demand for other nursing specialists, is furthering the divide between employer demand and the supply of qualified workers.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Nearly every in-demand health care occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ€™s degree or higher. For select occupations like home-health-aides, on-the-job training is important. Like many other clusters, wages increase with educational attainment, and health care is a field where education is transferable and stackable. Once a person gets a foot in the door, each new opportunity in education can utilize the learning and experience from a more entry-level position.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 3,077 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Hillsdale County.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies The top posting Retail & Hospitality cluster occupations shifted in order between Q3 and Q4 2015. Previously the top job postings for retail salespersons dropped by 50% falling from 13 postings in Q3 to six in Q4 2015. Postings for sales reps increased 20% growing from ten to 12 postings in the same time period. Postings for customer service reps also increased, growing 42.9% adding three postings. Several jobs were added or removed from the top fifteen compared to Q4 2015. Most notably, telemarketers, procurement clerks, and good service managers were new to the list while hosts/hostesses, maids/housekeepers, and waiters/waitresses dropped off.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Postings in the Retail & Hospitality cluster have change little during 2015. Postings increased from 53 in Q3 to 54 in Q4 2015. Q4 2014 saw the highest posting levels on record for Hillsdale County with 106 job ads. Postings then dropped by half in Q1 2015 and have stayed for the remainder of the year. 2015 posting levels are on par with levels seen in 2012 and 2013. Hillsdale County employment is also flat indicating that the overall posting levels are likely supporting turnover rather than job growth. Postings in this cluster represent 17.1% of total online ads in the county.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Retail and Hospitality occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 3,077 (2015). Retail and hospitality employment has remained relatively flat since 2013 with little change. Employment has grown by 7.0% since 2012 (the lowest point post-recession), adding 200 workers. On average, there are about eight postings per new hire in this cluster. Regionally, this ratio is closer to nine postings per new hire. While Hillsdaleâ€™s volume of posting and employment change is small, it is following similar trends as the broader southeast Michigan region.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for retail and hospitality workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the more entry-level occupations start workers below $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in technical sales and management require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Retail and hospitality workers in southeast Michigan have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations, specifically sales representatives, making higher wages than the national average.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. Many of the region’s most in-demand Retail and Hospitality occupations have LQs between 0.71 and 0.99, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 71% and 99% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Retail and Hospitality can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions easily due to a low concentration of workers.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require an advanced degree. For certain occupations where specialized training is essential, marketing managers, cooks, technical sales, etc., very few graduates exist to fill employer needs with so much regional competition for workers.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in retail and hospitality require a variety of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ€™s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training.

AGRICULTURE WINâ€™s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2015, 1,021 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Hillsdale County.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Veterinarians were once again the top posting Agriculture job in Hillsdale County (overlapping with the Health Care cluster). Postings doubled over the quarter from one to two job ads. New to the top jobs in Q4 2015 is a posting for scientific and technical product sales representatives. Postings have shifted compared to Q4 2014 with all of the top jobs changed over the year. The Agriculture cluster was the smallest of all in Hillsdale county with 2.2% of total postings in Q4 2015.

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Agriculture cluster decreased modestly from six postings in Q3 to five in Q4 2015. After a peak in Q4 2014 of 12 postings, 2015 has been a year of slow decline in Agriculture cluster job demand. Employment is also on the decline in this cluster with fewer jobs in 2015 than in 2013 or 2014. Agriculture is an important field in the county with over 1,000 workers employed.

AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Agriculture occupational employment cluster in Hillsdale County was estimated at 1,021 in 2015. Agriculture employment dropped by 38 workers (-3.6%) from 2014 to 2015. Growth in this cluster has remained relatively flat over the past fifteen years. Hillsdale County did not experience a major decline during the recession in Agriculture employment, unlike many other occupational clusters. While postings and employment changes have a correlation for many occupational clusters, this same is not true for Agriculture. With little posting activity and small changes in employment, employers of agricultural workers likely use other methods to recruit and hire workers.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS WAGES

Wages for agriculture workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the agriculture occupations offer a starting wage around $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in sales and research require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Agriculture workers have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations making higher wages than the national average.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in agriculture span a spectrum of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ€™s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH