Retail Sales Analysis Retail Wine Sales Decline 5 Percent in February

Wines Vines Analytics

Sales Value Down 5 Percent In February

Off-premise table wine sales fell 5 percent versus a year ago to $1.2 billion in the four weeks ended Feb. 25, NielsenIQ scan data showed. Sales of box wines increased 1 percent across all price tiers to $125.4 million in the period while wines in glass packaging fell 6 percent to more than $1 billion. All price tiers sold in glass declined, led by a 10 percent drop in wines priced $25 a bottle and more. Sales in the latest 52 weeks approached $15.8 billion, down 3 percent from last year. Box wines and those in glass packaging between $15-$19.99 a bottle saw the strongest growth, rising nearly 2 percent versus last year. Wines priced $25 a bottle and up saw the strongest decrease, with sales down nearly 7 percent.

Sales Volume Down 8 Percent In February

Off-premise table wine sales volume fell nearly 8 percent versus a year ago in the four weeks ended Feb. 25 to 11.3 million 9L cases. All price segments recorded declines versus a year ago. Wines priced $25 and up saw volumes decline more than 14 percent, while segments priced below $11 a bottle fell by an average of 11 percent. The latest 52 weeks saw volumes decline nearly 6 percent to 150.7 million 9L cases. Box wines priced $4-plus per 750ml bucked the overall downward trend, posting a 2 percent increase in volume. Similar to the latest four weeks, segments below $11 a bottle and $25-plus saw the steepest declines in volume.

BOXES FOR VALUE, GLASS FOR LUXURY

Strong sales of box wines in the latest four weeks have made barely a dent in the commanding share of off-premise sales wine in glass holds. Glass packaging accounts for 88 percent of off-premise sales through the outlets NielsenIQ tracks. The sales growth of box wines with an average price of $3.81 per 750 ml in the latest 52 weeks—or 63 percent less than the average price of $10.28 for wines in glass—suggest it is being driven primarily by value.

Delving further into per-bottle pricing data uncovers an interesting dynamic. While all price tiers saw average bottle price increase in the latest 52 weeks, the strongest growth was seen in two diametrically opposed price tiers — box wines less than $4 per 750ml and $25-plus wines in glass, which have both seen weaker sales than all other wines in the same packaging categories. But when it comes to average price, both posted gains of 4 percent in the latest 52 weeks. This indicates sufficient sales momentum for wines in the price segments for purchases to lift prices faster than in other segments.

The most affordable box wines increased 11 cents to average $2.59 per 750ml in the latest 52 weeks on flat growth. Similarly, $25-plus wines in glass saw average price increase by $1.49 to $41.55 a bottle even as sales fell 7 percent. While fewer of these most expensive wines sold through NielsenIQ outlets during the period, what’s going into those bottles is increasingly more expensive than what value-minded consumers are buying in boxes. WBM

Source: NielsenIQ Latest 4 weeks—ended Feb. 25

Source: NielsenIQ Latest 52 weeks—ended Feb. 25

Methodology

Sourced from NielsenIQ, these figures represent off-premise retailer wine sales to the consumer aggregated across a variety of channels nationwide, including grocery, drug, mass merchandisers, convenience, dollar, military, as well as a selection of warehouse clubs, and liquor channel geographies and liquor channel retail chains. NielsenIQ figures are updated and released every four weeks.