Retail Sales Analysis Retail Wine Sales Hold the Course in December

Sales Value Even with Last Year in December

Wines Vines Analytics

Off-premise table wine sales were unchanged versus a year ago at $1.6 billion in the four weeks ended Dec. 31, NielsenIQ scan data showed. Sales stabilized versus a year ago thanks to the boost from holiday spending. This saw sales in the latest 52 weeks total $15.9 billion, down 3 percent from last year. Growth in the period was strongest for table wines in glass priced $15-$19.99 a bottle, with sales up 6 percent to approach $221.4 million. Box wines priced $4-plus per 750ml saw the second-fastest growth at more than 5 percent. Wines priced $11-$14.99 a bottle ranked third, pointing to a shift in growth toward sub-$20 wines.

Sales Volume Down 4 Percent In December

Off-premise table wine sales volume fell 4 percent versus a year ago in the four weeks ended Dec. 31 to 13.9 million 9L cases. The latest 52 weeks saw volumes decline 6 percent to 152.6 million 9L cases. Volume growth in the latest four weeks continued to be in just two price tiers — box wines priced $4-plus per 750ml and table wines in glass at $15-$19.99, both of which gained 4 percent to 728,792 9L cases. This marked in acceleration in trends from the latest 52 weeks, with $15-$19.99 wines benefitting the most.

Average Bottle Prices Keep Rising

Retail wine sales are undergoing a bifurcation, and while the high road looks attractive; retail wine sales seem set to make friends in low places as sales growth shifted over the latest 52 weeks into lower price tiers. Sales at prices less than $15 a bottle have seen the pace of declines slow, with value down just 5 percent versus a year ago, according to NielsenIQ data, less than half the 11 percent decline reported last year versus 2020. Meanwhile, the pace of growth in the $15-$19.99 tier doubled, and higher price tiers saw sales growth slow and even reverse at the $25-plus tier.

In the past 52 weeks, all price segments recorded increases in average bottle price for an overall increase of 4 percent to $10.22 a bottle. The least-expensive and most-expensive price tiers saw the strongest growth in average prices, underscoring the bifurcation in the market. This is a shift from a year ago, when progressively higher price tiers saw a greater escalation in average prices and peaked at the $25-plus tier. In the latest 52 weeks, average bottle price growth shifted to the lower price tiers, peaking in the $4-$7.99 a bottle range. The most dramatic shift was seen in the $8-$10.99 price tier, which saw flat price growth a year ago but 2.5 percent growth this year. Consumers may be trading down, but they’re spending more per bottle within those lower price tiers when they do. WBM

Source: NielsenIQ Latest 4 weeks — ended Dec. 31

Methodology

Sourced from NielsenIQ, these figures represent off-premise retailer wine sales to the consumer aggregated across a variety of channels nationwide, including grocery, drug, mass merchandisers, convenience, dollar, military, as well as a selection of warehouse clubs, and liquor channel geographies and liquor channel retail chains. NielsenIQ figures are updated and released every four weeks.