WILKES COUNTY CURRENT ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Background

Wilkes County sits in the northwest part of North Carolina. A rural community, Wilkes County is the state’s 13th largest county geographically and ranks 40th in population. Home to 65,806 residents overall, most residents live in Wilkesboro and North Wilkesboro in the center of the county. Manufacturing was the largest industry sector in 2022 accounting for 17% of the county’s employment, followed by retail (15%) and health care/social assistance (13%). Major employers include Tyson Foods, Lowe’s, Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist Wilkes Medical Center, Wilkes County Government, Wilkes County Schools, and Wilkes Community College. According to the most recently available data, Wilkes County’s average annual salary for all workers was $43,887 while the median household income was $43,933.8

Economic Challenges

Wilkes County faces demographic and economic challenges in several areas that are intertwined with childcare needs. Changes in population and employment over time have implications for economic development in Wilkes County that could be mitigated with improved childcare opportunities for Wilkes County workers.

Declining Population

In the past decade, Wilkes County’s population fell by 4.6% following a trend in many rural areas across the nation. (See Figure 1.1.) Neighboring rural counties, Surry and Yadkin, have also declined in population, but Wilkes County’s population declined at a higher rate.9 In contrast, Watauga, Forsyth, and Iredell counties grew during the past decade with large urban or university centers enticing new residents to relocate.10 Though Wilkes County’s birth rate has increased and new residents have moved to the county, outbound migration and the death rate outpace those trends, leading to a 5.1% projected population loss from 2020 to 2030.11

Job Loss and Labor Force Concerns

Employment (defined as the number of jobs in Wilkes County fulfilled by county residents or in-commuting workers) has declined by 4.3% during the past decade, a rate similar to that of population loss during the same period. (See Figure 1.1.) Total employment was estimated at 22,421 in 2022 down from 23,400 in 2012 (and 26,700 in 2007).12 The labor force is also weakening. From 2012 to 2022, Wilkes County experienced a 12.7% contraction in the labor force (defined as the total number of residents who are either employed or unemployed and actively looking for work), down from 30,856 in 2012 to nearly 27,000 in 2022.13 Overall, these data show that the workforce in Wilkes County is declining at a faster rate than that of both jobs and population.

8 Average annual salary data generated using Chmura JobsEQ for Workforce software using a 4-quarter average including covered (companies pay unemployment insurance), uncovered, and self-employed workers. Accessed December 2022. Median household income from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (2021). Retrieved from data.census.gov.

9 U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates data, 2021. Retrieved from census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html. Surry declined by 1 percent and Yadkin fell by 3 percent over the past decade (2012-2022).

10 U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates data, 2021. Retrieved from census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html. 10-year growth rates for: Watauga: 5 percent; Forsyth: 9 percent; and Iredell: 19 percent.

11 North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, data produced by the State Demographer for North Carolina. Retrieved from osbm. nc.gov/facts-figures/population-demographics. Accessed December 2022.

12 Four-quarter employment data generated using Chmura JobsEQ for Workforce software. Accessed December 2022.

13 NC Department of Commerce, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, accessed February 2023. Retrieved from d4.ncommerce.com.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, accessed February 2023. Retrieved from data.census.gov; NC Department of Commerce Local Area Unemployment Statistics, accessed February 2023. Retrieved from d4.ncommerce.com; Data generated from JobsEQ, accessed February 2023; NC Department of Health and Human Services: Division of Child Development and Early Education. Child Care Analysis Detail Report, November 2022. Retrieved from ncchildcare.ncdhhs.gov *2021 data for population and labor force participation

Moreover, Wilkes County’s labor force participation rate has declined from a high of 61.3% in 2007 to 52% in 202114 The labor force participation rate measures the percentage of the population 16 years and older that is active in the labor force, employed or actively looking for work and is a vital indicator of the relative amount of available labor resources in a community. Wilkes County’s declining labor force participation rate mirrors a current global labor shortage driven by several factors, including an aging workforce and disenfranchised workers who lack the necessary skills for today's economy. But Wilkes County’s labor participation rate is lower than both the national and state rates, 63% and 62.2%, respectively, as well as neighboring Surry County's rate of 56.6%.15 Further, labor force participation rates vary for different demographic groups in Wilkes County (see Figure 1.2).

14 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2021. Retrieved from data.census.gov.

15 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2021. Retrieved from data.census.gov.

Women in the workforce

In Wilkes County, women participate in the workforce at a rate of 59.2%, well below the national (73.7%) and North Carolina (72.8%) labor force participation rates for women.16 Since the number of women in the U.S. workforce has increased over the last half of the twentieth century,17 the absence of women from the workforce in Wilkes County is significant. Yet, as Figure 1.2 shows, women with children have relatively high labor force participation rates among all demographic groups. Women in the county with children have the highest labor force participation rate at 78.2%; and among them, women with children 5 years old and under participate in the labor force at a rate of 66.5% while women with children ages 6-17 years have a much lower rate of participation at 57.9%. Given the shortage of available and affordable quality childcare described in this report, these data beg two questions: first, who is caring for children of working women?; and second, would more women enter the workforce if Wilkes County offered sufficient affordable, accessible, and quality childcare options for their infant, toddler, and elementary and middleschool-aged children?

Workforce and economic development

These data on labor force participation rates highlight a critical need for a workforce that enables economic development. Industries and businesses thrive and grow where workers are plentiful. The current talent crunch means that communities without a strong workforce have less advantageous economic prospects. As of early 2023, nearly 1,000 online job postings from companies and staffing agencies across all industries in Wilkes County advertised need for workers in the region.18 Wilkes County must improve labor force participation rates to fill these positions and ultimately retain and grow existing businesses and attract new industries. Affordable, accessible, and stable quality childcare is needed to support existing workers and entice additional workers into the labor force to meet current and future employment needs in Wilkes County.

Based on an estimate of parents not in the labor force and the percentage of parents who desire to work outside of the home, there could be a potential of 1,000 workers added to the labor force if childcare were available.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2021. Retrieved from data.census.gov. Calculations of potential workers based on Census data and Gallup Poll preferences of parents for working or staying home with children.

16 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2021. Retrieved from data.census.gov. The authors wish to acknowledge that the choice to work outside of the home is a personal choice as reflected in comments received through stakeholder engagement. Some parents keeping children at home expressed plans to continue to do so and gratitude for the financial ability to do so. Some parents stated they would stay at home until their children went to school while others said they would homeschool.

17 Mitra Toossi and Teresa L. Morisi, Women in the Workforce Before, During, and After the Great Recession, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2017

18 Based on data generated from JobsEQ. Accessed February 2023.