Projecting the model across the region

Relatively little habitat in northern Peloncillos south of I10

Approximate Distribution of population

A slightly different parametrization of the slope and land cover provided a resistance to movement layer. Black and purples show low resistance (easy movement) where orange and yellow indicate high resistance to movement

Resistance map for a larger section of the region and with connection points selected based on locations from iNaturalist. The red line is an optimized least cost path across all connection points.

Note I10 near the middle of the figure.

Least Cost Path follows actual sheep points closely

I created 4 scenarios of sheep starting North of I10 and moving south of I10.

3 of 4 converged on the same location.

The final (white line) I tried to influence to choose a different path by placing them closer to I10 and further west of the other ‘crossing point’.

A closer view of the 4 different predicted paths. Note differences in how sheep might move to connect to better areas across more resistant regions depending on the starting points. These lines could be monitored to evaluate sheep movement and to validate the model in general.

Predicted paths overlaid on satellite imagery and with the camera locations from our study.

Red circles show the 2 cameras where sheep were detected or likely detected. The furthest west camera also detected a mountain lion.

Additional analyses of the camera data will evaluate relative activity of other species along these ‘routes’.

All sheep locations (green dots) with all identified potential water sources in the areas.

We cannot know which water source actually produced or held water during this period.

Some water sources are springs which should continue to have water.

Not show, but this portion of the mountains seems to have more water than the portion between I10 and Granite Gap.

2 of the water sources with

The green highest and site with most visits is in the mountains but is exact type is unknown.

In general, no evidence that sheep are selecting water sources

13% of water sources are used more than expected Slope HSI Value (underused water) = 0.26

Slope HIS Value (overused water) = 0.34

Slight evidence that water sources in steep terrain is used more by sheep.

Green circles show water sources with high sheep visits.

Red show those with lower than expected visits

Sites with 0 visits are shown only blue pins and no circle.