Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2022 - Mini Guide

NOW IN ITS

23RD YEAR

2022

CHELTENHAM

FESTIVAL

BETTING GUIDE INCLUDES GRAND NATIONAL FESTIVAL BETTING GUIDE

Paul Ferguson plus guest authors GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM | RORY DELARGY

ANDYFestival GIBSON | DONN McCLEAN The Cheltenham Betting Guide 2021 JESS STAFFORD | SAM TURNER

I N A S S O C I AT I O N W I T H

Welcome PAUL FERGUSON

Welcome to the 23rd edition of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, which is – for the first time this year – brought to you in association with Fitzdares.

LAST year’s festival was memorable for many reasons. The domination of the Irish, the training performance of Henry de Bromhead to win three of the four feature races, the brilliance of Rachael Blackmore, plus several small fields and no crowd.

Owners and spectators alike will be back this year, so expect the anticipation ahead of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to eclipse most years. The opening race of the meeting looks like it could be a vintage renewal, so it should set the tone for a magnificent four days of sport.

As ever, this year’s Guide is packed full of trends, statistics and general pointers, which will, hopefully, help you find a few winners during the course of the week. All 28 races have been carefully dissected with the Key Trends table a quick reference point. The Grade 1 races also list the Leading Contenders for each of those contests in race card format, whilst there is plenty more to get stuck into.

I have assembled a strong team of guest authors, who bring an array of knowledge to the publication. Regulars Donn McLean (The Irish View) and Rory Delargy (Banker Or Bust) are back, along with Andy Gibson’s Notes On The Clock and for a second year, Jess Stafford gives us the lowdown from a pedigree perspective, in her Breeding Angles segment. And, I am delighted to welcome both Sam Turner and Graham Cunningham to the team, with the pair responsible for the Daily Tips and The Big Talking Points sections, respectively.

As per the previous few years, I have come up with a dozen Spring Horses To Follow, in the format of my other annual publication, Jumpers To Follow, whilst I also take an in-depth look at the Bumper Division. In this section, I highlight the likely main players for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, as well as possible contenders for Aintree and Punchestown. Plenty of them will, hopefully, go on to win races over hurdles next season, too.

Aintree is covered, as well. This year, I have produced trends and statistics for a dozen races at the Grand National meeting, those being the 11 Grade 1s and the big one itself, which takes place at 5:15pm on Saturday 9th April.

I would like to thank the team in head office, namely Paul Wright, who has once again done a fantastic job with the design of this year’s publication, and also to Charlie McCann, who has kindly written this year’s Foreword. Charlie and I go back a long way and he played an important role in the early part of my career.

And, finally, thank you to each and every one of you for purchasing this year’s Guide. Your continued support is greatly appreciated and whether you are heading to Gloucestershire or watching from the comfort of your own home (or even the pub), I hope you enjoy the action. I also hope that the Guide will prove to be a useful tool in helping you solve the numerous puzzles that lie in wait.

Best wishes, Paul.

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

Foreword

CHARLIE McCANN Freelance sports betting correspondent, formerly of Talk Sport.

THE Cheltenham Festival remains the most eagerly awaited week on the sporting calendar. I am delighted to have been asked by my good friend and fellow jumps fanatic and long suffering Evertonian Paul Ferguson to write the foreword for the 23rd Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.

It is well over 20 years since Paul and I first shared a podium – well a pint and a table – at Cheltenham and Aintree preview nights at Rigby’s pub in the heart of Liverpool. In the interim period, I have followed – albeit at arm’s length of late - with some pride at Paul’s burgeoning career as writer and broadcaster.

Paul and I have shared many punting highs and lows in the period, but Imperial Aura’s success in the sorely missed 2m4f novices’ handicap chase at the Festival of 2020 was certainly a highlight. I can still remember receiving the WhatsApp message from Paul that fateful Tuesday morning telling me that Kim Bailey’s novice had been raised “just” 7lbs for finishing second to Simply The Betts in the valuable and often informative Timeform sponsored Novices’ Handicap Chase on Festival Trials Day. By our reckoning Imperial Aura had to go up about 4lbs to get into the race, but no more than nine or he wouldn’t be eligible to run in that 0-145 contest. Simply The Betts was raised 9lbs which meant he was too high in the weights for the race and was forced to run in the Plate – which he duly won – while Imperial Aura came home 3¼ lengths clear of non-other than this year’s leading Gold Cup contender Galvin. Happy Days!

Paul’s staple publication Jumpers To Follow is now in its 15th year and continues to go from strengthto-strength. It is a must read for all followers of the winter game with his passion for the sport, meticulous preparation and attention to detail setting him apart from the crowd.

I must admit, I had given up on Dan Skelton’s Proschema last season after a frustrating autumn, but Paul kept the faith as he featured among his Spring Horses to Follow in this publication, advising us: “Currently rated 131 – it will be disappointing – and surprising – if there isn’t a decent prize in him from that mark.” The gelding is now rated a stone higher after two wins stepped up in trip at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. That is symbolic of the quality and insight of Paul’s work.

In recent years Paul has added the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide to his portfolio and this publication has long been the starting point for punters looking for a profitable Festival week.

As ever, the 22nd Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide highlighted several winners, although I don’t think any of us were prepared for the one-sided nature

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

of last year’s Prestbury Cup and the 23-5 Irish avalanche.

Of those 23 Irish successes , 12 we re gained at Grade 1 level.

The Nick y H enderson-trained winning novice chasers – Shishkin (Arkle) and Chantry H o use (M a rsh n ow Turners) – prevented a whitewash of the Grade 1 events last year and those prizes look destined to cross the Irish Sea in March, although I would suggest Alan King – courtesy of Edwardstone – and Venetia Williams – with the exciting L’Homme Presse – might disagree with those sentiments.

Shishkin is a short-priced favourite to wrestle back the Champion Chase crown for Britain, but the recent Dublin Racing Festival saw Chacun Pour Soi bounce back to his brilliant best and the two-mile championship race promises to be one of the races of the Festival.

It will be interesting to see who stable jockey Paul Townend chooses of the Willie Mullins’ trained two-milers and I am looking forward to reading Paul’s thoughts on the race. At this time of the year, it is an art in itself trying to second-guess where the incomparable Mullins will place his battalions of Festival bound runners.

I am keen to read what the team think about the handicapping of the Irish runners this year. The BHA’s Quality Jumps Review was instigated after the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. I wonder if chief BHA handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill and his team will take a more robust view of the Irish form this year?

We need a strong home challenge and a fair and level playing field. I for one will be looking very closely when the weights for the handicaps are announced at the end of the month.

Paul has assembled an august team of contributors for the 2022 edition with all bases covered from breeding, form, trends and, of course, an Irish perspective.

It was a long, long time ago when I last spoke to Donn McLean, but I am delighted to see in that period he has become an integral part of Racing TV’s excellent Irish coverage of our great sport and he and fellow RTV presenter Jess Stafford, to my eye, shared the MVP honours in last year’s Festival Guide.

I know how much work has gone into producing this publication. On the second day of the Dublin Racing Festival I text Paul at 7am and he was already busy putting some finishing touches to the guide, although in all probability he and son Luke couldn’t sleep after Everton had put four past Brentford the day before in the FA Cup. It is a privilege to be given the opportunity to endorse the 23rd Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.

Paul has come a long way since those early days on BBC Radio Merseyside and Rigby’s. I am proud to call him a friend.

Enjoy!

Charlie McCann.

DAY ONE RACE ONE

SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

2m 87y (Grade 1) – Old course OVERVIEW

ONLY eight horses went to post for last year’s curtain-raiser, which set the tone for an unusual year. Given the restrictions relating to owners, several races were under-subscribed and the opening contest of the week was rather indicative of what was to come. Prior to last year, only twice this century (in both 2013 and 2015 when there were 12 runners) has the field size for the Supreme been lower than 14. In terms of the race itself, it was won in emphatic fashion by Appreciate It, who provided trainer Willie Mullins with a seventh win in the race and a sixth in the past 15 years.

GRADED-CLASS PERFORMER

WITH the exception of his age, which we will get to shortly, last year’s winner very much had the right credentials for the race. A high-class bumper performer, he had won a brace of Grade 1s in Ireland earlier in the campaign and became the fifth winner in the past nine to have won a Grade 1 on their previous start. Domestically, there is only one Grade 1 over the minimum trip earlier in the season (Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle), but there are three in Ireland and Appreciate It had won the last two. Incidentally, Ballyadam had won the other and he finished runner-up. There were only two lasttime-out Grade 1 winners in last year’s line-up, the other being Metier, who disappointed for Harry Fry and Sean Bowen.

Nine of the past 10 winners had won a Graded novice hurdle earlier in the campaign, so also pay respect to Grade 2 form.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS (150+)

APPRECIATE IT was also clear on official BHA Ratings. He had upwards of 5lbs in hand of the field according to the handicapper and became the sixth winner in the past eight years to have been rated 153 or higher, prior to the race. During those past eight years, only 16 horses have contested

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

the Supreme with a rating of 153 or higher, so 6-16 is a fair return.

The enigmatic Labaik is the only winner during the past eight years who had failed to obtain a rating of at least 150, so focusing on those in that bracket is certainly a good starting point. It should be pointed out that the likes of Cue Card (159) and My Tent Or Yours (162) have been beaten in this race when a long way clear on ratings, but in general – certainly in recent years – the higher-rated novices have shone. In fact, the year in which the latter was beaten (2013), Jezki (154), Un Atout (151), Cause Of Causes (152) and Dodging Bullets (156) all arrived at Cheltenham with lofty ratings secured. However, in general, focusing on those rated 150+ is the way to go.

NATIONAL HUNT BACKGROUND

THE disappointing run of Metier continued the miserable run of ex-Flat horses in the Supreme in recent years, whereas the winner had a traditional National Hunt background. The winner of an Irish Point-to-Point at the second attempt (had chased home Envoi Allen on debut, incidentally), Appreciate It was a Grade 2 bumper winner and finished runner-up in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper 12 months earlier. Not since Al Ferof, Cinders And

LAST-TIME-OUT WINNERS

APPRECIATE IT became the 22 nd last-time-out winner in the past 25 years. Clearly a race of this magnitude attracts a field full of previous winners, but arriving in form is clearly important. Surprisingly, only four of the eight-strong field last year had won on their previous start, with two of those – Soaring Glory and Grumpy Charley – having won a handicap. The other three Irish-trained runners had been beaten by Appreciate It previously.

Again, Labaik is the only winner in the past 11 years who failed to win on their previous start.

Arcalis and Menorah are the other winners during the past 25, to have won the Supreme on the back of a defeat.

HURDLING EXPERIENCE

THE past two winners had run three times over hurdles prior to the Supreme – with Shishkin unbeaten in two completed starts and Appreciate It having won his three starts over hurdles – whereas the previous 11 winners had run a minimum of four times over hurdles. Prior to that Ebaziyan and Captain Cee Bee won the Supreme on their third start over hurdles, but experience has seemingly become more significant. As already touched upon in an earlier subsection, Appreciate It had run in two Point-to-Points and he actually contested four bumpers, so he certainly wasn’t lacking in that department. Likewise – although

KEY TRENDS 6 of the past 8 winners were rated 153+ 5 of the past 9 winners won a Grade 1 lasttime-out 22 of the past 25 winners won last-time-out 17 of the past 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 9 of the past 10 winners had won a Graded novice hurdle 8 of the past 20 winners had contested a Graded bumper at the previous season’s spring festivals 8 of the past 9 winners were sent off at single-figures 5 of the past 9 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (7 winners in total) 4 of the past 11 winners (including the past 2) had won an Irish P2P 4 of the past 9 winners won the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle last-time-out (all trained by Willie Mullins) Respect racecourse experience (under Rules and P2P) Respect horses rated 150 or higher Only 1 of the past 14 winners failed to win twice over hurdles Only 1 of the past 11 winners failed to win last-time-out Only 1 of the past 11 winners returned at odds greater than 10-1 Only 2 of the past 19 winners were older than 6 Only 2 of the past 17 winners were outright favourite Genuine ex-Flat horses have struggled in recent years Be wary of the Betfair Hurdle winner

to a lesser degree – Shishkin had run in two Irish Points and one bumper, when successful at Kempton. Experience should, therefore, be viewed upon as a positive.

THE UNBEATEN HURDLER

BOTH Altior and Appreciate It were unbeaten ahead of the Supreme during the past six years, although it is also worth noting that Vautour, Douvan and Klassical Dream were all undefeated in Ireland, having lost in France before joining Willie Mullins. Therefore, Mullins’ past four winners were all unbeaten in his care. Likewise, as stated earlier, Shishkin fell on debut then won both subsequent starts. Strictly speaking, Appreciate It became just the third

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

DAY ONE RACE ONE

Ashes and Champagne Fever had the winner run in the Champion Bumper the previous season, but that is now four winners in the past 11 years.

Going back to 2003, Back In Front had also hit the frame in the Champion Bumper prior to winning the Supreme, so respect those who ran well in last year’s renewal. Last year’s Champion Bumper winner Sir Gerhard looks to be a leading contender this time around.

Overall, eight of the past 20 winners had contested one of the Graded bumpers at the previous season’s spring festivals, so pay healthy respect to strong bumper form.

The past two winners were former Irish Pointto-Point winners and given the amount of money paid for such horses these days, that dominance might continue to grow. Those past two winners mean four of the past 11 winners were former Irish Points winners, so again, it could be a growing trend. In previous years, such horses boasted a much better record in the Ballymore (2m5f), but it is certainly something worth monitoring. There are several Irish Points winners who are prominent in the betting for this year’s race.

DAY ONE RACE ONE

unbeaten hurdler to win the Supreme in the past 19 years, but it is clear that a pattern during the current campaign (for French recruits) can emerge.

Again, the experience they gained in domestic hurdle races was probably another positive.

In terms of winning experience, Summerville Boy is the only winner in the past 14 who had failed to win at least twice over hurdles previously.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

AS already touched upon in the Overview, Willie Mullins has now been responsible for seven winners in total, and more impressively, he has had five winners in the past nine years. His earlier winners were Tourist Attraction (1995) and Ebaziyan (2007), but his dominance during the past decade is quite outstanding. Since 2013, Mullins has had 26 runners in the Supreme and he would have been responsible for the first and second last year, had Blue Lord not fallen at the final flight, when he was set to chase home his stable-mate. Whilst those first two winners for the stable were sent off at big odds (25-1 and 40-1, respectively) they were the only representative for Mullins, whilst his five more recent winners were the supposed stable ‘first string’ according to the betting, with three of them returning favourite or joint-favourite. Therefore, focusing on Mullins’ leading hope is clearly the way to go. He looks to have two live contenders this year, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard.

Both Mullins and Nicky Henderson tend to get off to a flyer at the festival, with the opening day seemingly suitable to their speedier type of horse.

Henderson has seen many a top-class performer from his stable beaten in this race – with the brilliant Sprinter Sacre and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Binocular a couple of prime examples – but he has rectified that in recent years, thanks to Altior and Shishkin, who would both return 12 months later to win the Arkle. Remarkably, Henderson was without a runner in any of the novice hurdles last season. With Dusart injured at the time, it did seem as though he had a below par (by his high standards) crop of novice hurdlers, but that certainly isn’t the case this year, with both Constitution Hill and Jonbon expected to line up for the stable.

AGE

THERE was no four-year-old representation last year, meaning the record of those in that age group remains 0-15 for this century. Hors La Loi III remains the only four-year-old winner since King Pele in 1973.

At the other end of the scale, Appreciate It

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

became just the third winner this century who was older than six. Like-A-Butterfly and Captain Cee Bee were winners for owner JP McManus at the age of eight and seven respectively, whilst last year’s winner was the first in 13 years to fall into this bracket. In fairness, there aren’t too many fancied runners aged seven or older competing in festival novice hurdles (Black Op and Champ finished runner-up in the Ballymore as seven-year-olds in recent years), but it is possible that might change.

With many an owner prepared to spend a full season in bumpers with an former Point-to-Point winner, it can be that horses have turned six by the time they jump a hurdle. Last year’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner Sir Gerhard is another case-in-point. Going back a bit further, the aforementioned Tourist Attraction, who provided Willie Mullins with the first of his seven wins in the race, was also a seven-year-old when successful.

When putting Jumpers To Follow together, I tend to lean towards the bumper horses who were aged four and five, thinking that a horse who is six and has yet to jump a hurdle has presumably had a problem or two. Now, with leading owners seemingly happy to be patient with these ex-Pointto-Point horses this could change, but in doing so, it likely has a knock-on effect to other races later in their careers (something I briefly touched on in last year’s Guide in relation to the Gold Cup).

KEY RACES

THE previous season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper has already been covered in an earlier subsection, whilst the race from Cheltenham from earlier in the season that can have an impact on the Supreme is (unsurprisingly, given the title) the Sky Bet Supreme Trial (Sharp Novices’ Hurdle). A Grade 2 at the November meeting, this was won by Altior whilst Summerville Boy finished runner-up in it, so two of the past three English-trained winners hail from that particular event. Last year’s Sharp winner For Pleasure finshed third in the Supreme, at the rewarding odds of 40-1.

Again, as already touched upon, the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle is the only Grade 1 in England over the minimum trip for novices earlier in the campaign. Metier couldn’t enhance the record of the winner of that race last year, with Noland and Summerville Boy winning both races since 2006.

This season’s Sharp was won by I Like To Move It, whilst Constitution Hill ran out a hugely impressive winner of the Tolworth.

The poor record of the winner of the Betfair Hurdle has been well-documented in recent years and Soaring Glory further added weight to the

Hurricane Fly were previous winners of the race.

It is worth monitoring moving forward, as there is plenty of time between that race and the Tattersalls Ireland, so rather like with last year’s winner, it might be that trainers start to target the double.

The first Grade 1 over 2m in Ireland is the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, a race which was won last year by Supreme runner-up Ballyadam. Abacadabras also finished runner-up in the Royal Bond (beaten by Ballymore winner Envoi Allen) before filling the same spot in this race, whilst both Champagne Fever and Labaik contested the race. Clearly there are more options at the top-level for a novice hurdler in Ireland, and as per the earlier subsection, the message is to pay healthy respect to Graded form. Mighty Potter finished third in what was a falsely-run renewal of the Royal Bond, before winning the Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

MARKET FORCES

HEAVILY-SUPPORTED in the days leading up to the festival, Appreciate It became just the second winning outright-favourite since Brave Inca in 2004. The other was Douvan (stable-mate Vautour was joint-favourite the year before) but plenty of recent winners were very prominent in the betting.

Indeed, eight of the past nine winners were sent off at single-figure odds, including Shishkin who was ante-post favourite for several weeks before the meeting, but was weak on the day. Focus on those at the top-end of the market, with those just in behind the favourite faring best during the past decade.

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form 2021 111

Winner Appreciate It

2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Shishkin Klassical Dream Summerville Boy Labaik Altior Douvan Vautour Champagne Fever Cinders And Ashes

F11 11 12231 11RR6 61111 2111 111 1231 2111

Age Weight 7 11-7 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 5

11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-7

OR 153

SP 8/11F

Trainer Runners W Mullins (IRE) 8

153 154 150 144 155 155 155 148 142

6/1 6/1 9/1 25/1 4/1 2/1F 7/2JF 5/1 10/1

N Henderson W Mullins (IRE) T George G Elliott (IRE) N Henderson W Mullins (IRE) W Mullins (IRE) W Mullins (IRE) D McCain

15 16 19 14 14 12 18 12 19

Last Race (No. of days) 1st Gr.1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (37) 1st Sidney Banks Nov Hurdle (40) 1st Gr.1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (37) 1st Gr.1 Tolworth Hurdle (66) 6th Naas Nov. Hurdle (16) 1st Kempton Nov. Hurdle (80) 1st Gr.2 Moscow Flyer Nov. Hurdle (59) 1st Gr.1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (30) 1st Gr.1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (31) 1st Gr.2 Haydock Nov. Hurdle (52)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES *Weatherbys Champion Bumper 3 (Cinders And Ashes 5th, Champagne Fever 1st, Appreciate It 2nd) Royal Bond Novice Hurdle 2 (Champagne Fever 2nd, Labaik ref. to race) Tattersalls Ireland Novices’ Hurdle 4 (Champagne Fever 1st, Vautour 1st, Klassical Dream 1st, Appreciate It 2nd) Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle 2 (Vautour 1st, Douvan 1st) *Attheraces.com Champion INH Flat Race 2 (Champagne Fever 1st, Altior 6th) Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle (Sharp Novices’ Hurdle) 2 (Altior 1st, Summerville Boy 2nd) * denotes previous season

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

DAY ONE RACE ONE

theory, with his disappointing fourth (beaten 27½ lengths). During the past 12 years, eight novices have now won the Betfair and gone on to contest the Supreme, without success. Get Me Out Of Here, My Tent Or Yours and Kalashnikov have all finished runners-up. This year’s race wasn’t won by a novice, but the aforementioned I Like To Move It finished runner-up.

Over in Ireland, there are a trio of Grade 1s over 2m earlier in the campaign, with the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (formerly the Deloitte Novice Hurdle and staged over 2m2f) proving to be a key trial. Champagne Fever and Vautour were successful in the old format, whilst since the introduction of the Dublin Racing Festival in 2018, three of the four winners have gone on to win at the festival. Samcro stepped up in trip to win the Ballymore, whilst both Klassical Dream and Appreciate It were successful in the Supreme. Therefore, four winners in the past nine years have completed the double and all four were trained by Willie Mullins. He won the race again this year, with Sir Gerhard.

Both Vautour and Douvan won the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle for Willie Mullins, a race which he won this year with Dysart Dynamo.

The unbeaten six-year-old made all to run out an impressive 19-lenth winner.

Appreciate It had also won the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas and actually became the first winner of that race to follow up in the Supreme. Abacadabras went close the year before and the likes of Istabraq and

DAY ONE RACE ONE

Leading Contenders CONSTITUTION HILL

Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Runner-up in an Irish Point (made a serious error at the last), he burst onto the scene when winning a novice hurdle at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and returned to the Esher track to win the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle by 12 lengths. A smooth-traveller, rarely do you see a horse come up the Sandown hill as strongly as he has done in both starts to date and given his professionalism, his connections were happy to head to Cheltenham on the back of just two starts. Exciting prospect.

SIR GERHARD

Trainer: Willie Mullins

DYSART DYNAMO

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Last year’s Champion Bumper winner has won twice over hurdles at Leopardstown, latterly in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, which has been a fine guide to this race in recent years. Whilst he still has the option of running in the Ballymore, he clearly has the pace to be fully effective over 2m, although he will need to hurdle more fluently than he did last time. He boasts a similar profile to last year’s winner, being a seven-year-old former winning Irish Pointer who boasts strong Grade 1 bumper form.

Another who has had just two starts over hurdles, he was a winner at Cork on debut, but appeared to take a huge step forward when winning the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle by 19 lengths. Vautour and Douvan both won that contest before landing the Supreme and he is sure to set a strong pace. The winner of a 2m2½f bumper (won his second bumper over 2m), his keen-going nature means that he is fully effective at 2m and he looks blessed with an abundance of natural ability.

JONBON

Trainer: Nicky Henderson

KILCRUIT

Trainer: Willie Mullins

A full-brother to 2015 winner Douvan, he won a Newbury bumper on his first start for current connections (had won an Irish Point) and has won all three starts over hurdles, the last twice in Grade 2 company. He has done little wrong on the track to date and promises to be better suited by a strong gallop (should get that from Dysart Dynamo), whilst reverting to better ground is also likely to bring about further improvement. A horse with plenty of pace, he hurdles fluently.

Runner-up to Sir Gerhard in last year’s Champion Bumper, he reversed that form at Punchestown, but took three runs to get off the mark as a hurdler. He appeared to appreciate coming back to the minimum trip last time, when he made all to win a weak maiden by 21 lengths. Following that confidence-booster his trainer stated that he would head straight to the Supreme and although a lot more is required, we know he possesses the class from his bumper days.

MIGHTY POTTER

Trainer: Gordon Elliott

A wide-margin winner on debut at Down Royal, he stayed on eye-catchingly well in a falsely-run Royal Bond and built on that to beat stable-mate Three Stripe Life in Grade 1 company over Christmas. The Royal Bond form was let down at the DRF, but Three Stripe Life finished 6 lengths behind Sir Gerhard and this good-looking son of Martaline looks sure to relish a strongly-run race. He will stay further in time, so should be finishing strongly up the hill and shouldn’t be underestimated.

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2022 - DAY 1

Banker or Bust

BY RORY DELARGY

A writer for both The Irish Field and Irish Daily Star (among others), Rory is also a regular contributor to the Final Furlong podcast.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

CONSTITUTION HILL

IT’S traditional to find the week’s banker in the very first race of the meeting, and it looks like Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill will start favourite for the Supreme, assuming all the main players stay sound over the next few weeks.

Constitution Hill, a five-year-old son of Blue Bresil, was virtually unheard of at the beginning of December, but landed a gamble on his racecourse debut at Sandown early that month, and burst onto the scene as a result of that impressive 14 length win over Might I. He returned to the Esher venue for the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January, and again showed that rare ability to quicken in deep ground when beating Jetoile by 12 lengths.

Conditions for the Tolworth were so bad that only about two dozen people braved the elements to look at Constitution Hill in the parade ring, and in truth, they did not miss much in the preliminaries. Nicky Henderson’s newest star does not draw attention to himself in the way some top-class horses do. He’s neither flash in looks nor temperament, but as he has shown twice to date, he lets his racecourse performance do the talking. If you haven’t seen him in the flesh before, and plan to judge him on paddock appearance, then you may be a little underwhelmed. Don’t let that in itself put you off.

Constitution Hill has impressed with his fluent jumping and his ability to quicken after travelling strongly, and I would say that he is an ideal candidate for the Supreme given those attributes, but the key to assessing his chances isn’t just in analysing his strengths and weaknesses, but those of his opponents. In terms of weaknesses, there are none which spring to mind, and his docile paddock behaviour is in itself probably a positive, with the hubbub of Cheltenham’s big parade ring something which can adversely affect highly strung racehorses.

If Constitution Hill has a weakness, it has yet

to come to light, but there are some unknowns, notably that he will be facing much better horses than Might I and Jetoile in March, on a very different track to Sandown, and on likely faster ground to boot. Whether he can rise to that challenge is unproven, but he doesn’t look beholden to tactics.

Whether he represents a banker or not boils down to whether or not he’s the best horse in the race on the day. For context, he has a BHA rating of 148, which will make for useful comparisons, without having to be taken as gospel. So, what to make of the opposition?

Why not start with the challenge within his own stable? While Nicky Henderson has stated that either Jonbon or Constitution Hill could step up in trip for the Ballymore, it appears most likely that they will both run in the Supreme as long as they remain in the current ownership. Jonbon (BHA rating 145) is unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three novice hurdles, including the Grade 2 Kennel Gate at Ascot, and the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock.

He won slowly run races on his first two starts, but beat proven rivals, while he was hampered at a crucial time in the Haydock contest, and is a little better than the bare form of a 3-length win over Richmond Lake. He beat Might I by 4¾ lengths into third, and while that seems to mark him as inferior to his stable-mate, it needs to be factored in that he was conceding 5lb for his Kennel Gate success.

Adjusting the figures makes him the equal of Constitution Hill on a line through Might I, although collateral form needs to be taken in proper context.

Last year’s Champion Bumper hero, and winner of both his hurdle races, including the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland (Brave Inca) Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, Sir Gerhard jumped superbly on debut when beating lesser rivals, but seemed distracted (possibly by a delay at the start when the penultimate hurdle had to be dolled off, or possibly by the blustery wind) in the early stages of the Brave Inca, jinking at the first bend, and fail-

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

ing to take proper regard of the next couple of hurdles.

When Paul Townend got him back in hand, he was much better, and in beating Three Stripe Life and Colonel Mustard – both proven in Grade 1 company - by six lengths and the same, he produced a performance good enough to be given a mark of 150 by the Irish handicapper. The first three were a distance clear of the rest, and while the race had a slightly messy look, the race time was faster than the Irish Champion Hurdle won by Honeysuckle, both overall, and from the third-last hurdle, even though Sir Gerhard carried more weight and had to run around the penultimate hurdle rather than jump it. In short, I was very impressed.

Willie Mullins is mob-handed in the novice hurdles, and Dysart Dynamo is another in the Supreme frame having won both hurdle races easily, the latter an annihilation of his rivals, headed

by Gringo D’Aubrelle in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown.

Bred to stay, he is in the mould of Un de Sceaux in that he can combine a relentless gallop with quick jumping, and he achieved a top-class time figure in the Moscow Flyer despite the fact that he was able to coast home having had his rivals well beaten half a mile from home. For context, the two races after his at Punchestown were novices over the same trip, and they were run 10.5 and 12 seconds slower respectively. He wasn’t given a rating by the Irish handicapper, but he would be in the high 140s given the level of form shown by those he beat at Punchestown, as Gringo D’Aubrelle was nine lengths closer to the 143-rated Stage Star at Newbury in the Challow than to Dysart Dynamo at Punchestown, for all the shorter trip in the latter contest will account for some of that gap.

Kilcruit also merits a mention given he was a fine second to Sir Gerhard in the Champion Bumper before beating him easily at Punchestown. He was a tad disappointing on his first two starts over hurdles, but seemed to benefit from a tongue tie when bolting up at Punchestown on his most recent start. He posted a smart time and jumped well there, so could be the forgotten horse, and despite having other possibles, Willie seems sure to run Kilcruit here rather than the Ballymore.

Mighty Potter (IHRB 144) gained a Grade 1 success when beating Three Stripe Life by 1½ lengths in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas having been undone by the slow gallop in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse on his previous start. On a line through Sir Gerhard, he has a bit to find, and the

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

Royal Bond form was trashed at the Dublin Racing Festival. On the other hand, he progressed plenty from his first to second try in Grade 1 company, and is open to further progress.

He and Pied Piper are in the same ownership in Gordon Elliott’s yard, and have the same IHRB rating. Pied Piper is likely to go for the Triumph, but connections also have Fil Dor for that, and if the handicapper is correct, then Pied Piper – who would receive a generous 10lb weight-for-age allowance – is the best horse in the Supreme at the weights. That may surprise a few, and he must go down as an unlikely runner, but if I were G Elliott, I would consider running Pied Piper here instead of Mighty Potter, putting the latter in the Ballymore, and moving Ginto up to the Albert Bartlett after Hollow Games failed to enhance his reputation at Leopardstown.

Based on the ratings, assuming the Irish handicapper has not overrated the Mullins and Elliott hopefuls (no sniggering at the back), and backed up by time analysis of the major trials, it would appear that Constitutional Hill, while holding excellent credentials, is one of a handful with remarkably similar claims. He will improve again, and I think he’s the best prospect in the field, and the most likely of these to go on to win a Champion Hurdle, but history shows that the Supreme is more often won by the best horse on the day rather than the one with most potential, and on form shown to date he shouldn’t be as short as 9/4 (correct at the time of going to print and generally a 2/1 shot with most firms).

BUST

Champion Hurdle

HONEYSUCKLE

“THE race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong….but time and chance happen to them all.”

Ecclesiastes 9:11 “The race may not always be to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”

Hugh Keough.

A career record of 14 runs and as many wins tells its own story, and while it has long been possible to point to flaws in her jumping, opposing Honeysuckle has proven to be an utterly thankless task in the past few years. She sometimes wins by a narrower margin than she ought to, and wise guys with calculators will tell you that holding on by half a length while receiving 7lb from Ronald Pump does not put her in the Istabraq category. And yet she sees off all challengers, and probably would be equally hard to beat without the mares’ allowance. That was certainly true of Dawn Run, who

humbled Buck House at level weights in the last great match race.

In a manner of speaking, the weight she receives is an impediment to her achieving greatness in the eyes of the racing public, as whatever she achieves, some weights-and-measures fanatic will be calculating how many times she might have lost if not in receipt of that controversial allowance. In another way, it’s merely a distraction, and of no real consequence in the discussion of her prospects, or in hailing her brilliance. No horse since the establishment of jumping’s championship races has remained unbeaten as long she has, and that is significant.

Even if we do take the view that Honeysuckle is inferior to Istabraq, or Hurricane Fly, or Faugheen, what does she have to achieve to repeat her success of last year? She regularly beats the top hurdlers in Ireland, and her nearest rival in that arena, Sharjah, has been ruled out by injury. Zanahiyr was put in his place in the Irish Champion and lacks the gears for two miles on the Old Course, having been outpaced at a crucial stage in the Triumph.

The best hurdler in Britain, according to the official handicapper, is Not So Sleepy, a ten-year-old

who she beat by 13 lengths into fifth a year ago.

Not So Sleepy hasn’t improved to fill that position, and his latest last of five in a poor-quality renewal of the Christmas Hurdle tells you a story. The brutal truth is that he’s more likely to plant himself at the start than he is to win.

Not So Sleepy is rated 3lb better than Goshen and Tommy’s Oscar, but the former cannot turn left, as he showed when eighth of nine finishers in the 2021 Champion, and won’t even try this time around. The latter has improved markedly since beaten in his first seven point-to-point outings, and is the apple of permit-holder Ann Hamilton’s eye; it would be a wonderful story if he could land a Champion Hurdle after his modest start, but although he was a comfortable winner of the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock (now the ‘The New One’ Hurdle), a five-length beating of Global Citizen suggests he’s still got a fair bit to find, and he’s not sure to act at Cheltenham.

Epatante is prominent in the betting, and with her claim is best at the weights of the home contingent, but she made hard work of dead-heating with Not So Sleepy at Newcastle, and again finished without conviction when beating the 140-rated Glory And Fortune in the Christmas Hurdle. Nicky

HONEYSUCKLE

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

Henderson has gone on record as saying that his aim for her was to snaffle those Grade 1 prizes, and he appears to have no plan B in terms of beating Honeysuckle. To my eye, she has regressed a little this year despite her wins, and she won’t be placed if running to the same level this time.

Adagio has been off with a niggle since a good second in the Greatwood in November, and is due to reappear in the Kingwell at Wincanton. I’d normally be dead against five-year-olds, but these are strange times, and I can envisage him emerging as the Best of the home contingent, and he makes appeal in the Without-Honeysuckle market, but the bald fact is that he would be a whopping 20lb better off in a handicap with Honeysuckle, and that puts his task in perspective.

Appreciate It is – entirely by default – the only horse most people can see beating Honeysuckle, and we haven’t seen him since he won the Supreme 12 months ago, although Willie Mullins has stated that he’s happy to go up against Honeysuckle without a run. If you believe the trainer, Appreciate It was fit and well enough to run in the Irish Champion, but Willie thought it was unfair to ask him to take on Honeysuckle before Cheltenham.

Roughly translated, that means Willie’s opinion is that if you’re going to beat Honeysuckle, your best chance is to save it all up for one shot, rather than give her a warning which will only raise her level of competitiveness. That’s an interesting way of thinking, but shows that Willie believes that the only way to beat Honeysuckle is to catch her off guard. That may well be true, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

BANKER

ADAGIO

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

Lively Outsider

Arkle Challenge Trophy

COEUR SUBLIME

THE Arkle is often dominated by an outstanding novice, but the injury sustained by Ferny Hollow means it’s a rather more open looking heat this year. Blue Lord was unconvincing in beating Riviere D’Etel at Leopardstown, although that still ranks as smart form, while Edwardstone is a Grade 1 winner with a fair bit to recommend him. None of those strike fear into the hearts of other contenders, however, and we might see a bigger field for the Arkle as a result.

Traditionally, the Arkle is the novice chase in which hurdles class tends to be the best guide, and a lot of good horses struggle simply due to the unrelenting pace of the race. It often pays to focus on those horses able to mix it in Grade 1 company when hurdling, and that is a question for Third Time Lucki and Edwardstone in particular, and Riviere D’Etel too, especially as she will no longer be getting all the allowances.

One who has made a fair start over fences without hitting the headlines is Coeur Sublime, who is now with Henry de Bromhead after stints with Gordon Elliott and Gearoid O’Loughlin. He ran into Ferny Hollow on his first two starts before winning a moderate contest with ease at Gowran last time.

He has had breathing problems in the past, and was refitted with a tongue-tie last time having finished weakly when third in the Racing Post (Christmas) Novice Chase. He was 14 lengths behind Riviere D’Etel there, but will be 6lb better off, and has been campaigned with March in mind, whereas Gordon Elliott has naturally been keen to utilise his mare’s juvenile allowance, meaning she was generally getting around a stone off her rivals before the turn of the year.

Coeur Sublime has largely jumped soundly, which is no surprise as he is very athletic sort, who was notably slick over hurdles. His wind infirmities are hopefully in the past, and he was able to quicken from the last at Gowran where his only jumping lapse came when slow under restraint at the fourth last fence, but he appeals as a horse who will be comfortable jumping at Arkle pace, and I see him being one of the last off the bridle. He could be vulnerable up the hill, but at 25/1 (readily available at the time of going to print), it’s a chance I’m happy enough to take.

2 02 2

SPRING

HORSES TO FOLLOW

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021

DELVINO 7yo Dylan Thomas – Alliata (Southern Halo) Trainer Mark Edmund McCrory Possible Cheltenham Target N/A

Owner Mrs P J Conway Possible Target Elsewhere N/A

A MARE who wouldn’t necessarily have any big-race targets during the spring, Delvino does, however, appeal as one who is capable of winning a race or two over fences before the season is out.

A heavy-ground bumper winner at Down Royal in March 2020, she made a winning hurdling debut – also on heavy – at Naas in December of the same year. Possibly a shade disappointing in her three remaining starts for Dermot McLoughlin, she made her first start for her current trainer in a competitive beginners chase behind Capodanno at Naas. Not totally fluent, she travelled really well against some very good horses and dropped in trip when finishing runner-up in a rated novice chase at Down Royal.

Again, not totally foot-perfect (there is certainly room for improvement in the jumping department), she travelled well and looked all over the winner when jumping the last, only to be run out of it late on.

Handed an I.H.R.B. rating of 128, handicaps are an option (open handicaps after one more run), whilst reverting to her own sex should open up further opportunities and softer ground would also help. It will be disappointing if she can’t be placed to win in the closing weeks/months of the season. A half-sister to the useful Avellino, she was also at her best under testing conditions.

DINOBLUE 5yo Doctor Dino – Blue Aster (Astarabad) Trainer W P Mullins Possible Cheltenham Target Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Owner John P McManus Possible Target Elsewhere Mares Novice Championship Final

JP MCMANUS has yet to win the Dawn Run but he looks to have a live contender this year, albeit one with limited racecourse experience. The five-year-old Dinoblue only made her debut on 6th January, in a maiden hurdle at Clonmel, where she ran out a striking 15-length winner, from stable-companions La Prima Donna and Mi Lighthouse.

Heavily-supported in the market, she travelled strongly and jumped superbly en route to running out a most taking winner and the placed horses were set to battle out a similar contest at Limerick, when La Prima Donna fell two out, leaving Mi Lighthouse to win by 14 lengths.

Not given an entry for the Solerina (which was won by stable-mate Allegorie de Vassy) and not taking up her engagement in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle means that she is likely to head straight to Cheltenham on the back of that sole start, but she might just have enough class to defy that inexperience.

A half-sister to Blue Sari, he finished runner-up in the Champion Bumper on his second start as a fouryear-old and looked set to finish second in last year’s Coral Cup but for a final flight fall, so her pedigree suggests that she will cope with all that Cheltenham has to offer. After the festival, the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse would be another likely option.

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021