Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

THE ORIGINAL

2022

GRAND NATIONAL

FESTIVAL

BETTING GUIDE

12 Big-Race Trends PLUS AN IN-DEPTH RANDOX GRAND NATIONAL PREVIEW

I N A S S O C I AT I O N W I T H

Welcome PAUL FERGUSON The Cheltenham Festival might be all over for another year, but attention soon switches to the Grand National meeting at Aintree, with the three-day fixture set to get underway on Thursday 7th April.

12 races at the meeting were covered in detail as part of the original Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and those pages are included in this updated digital publication. Given that the those pages were written prior to the Cheltenham Festival, I have penned a detailed Post-Cheltenham Update, in which I highlight a number of horses – both winners and beaten horses – who would be of interest if heading to Liverpool. In addition to those that were in action at Cheltenham, I have also nominated another clutch of horses who avoided the festival with Aintree in mind.

As highlighted in the original publication (see the Keepin’ It Fresh For Aintree feature), only six of last year’s 21 winners at Aintree had run at the Cheltenham Festival, and whilst that figure might have been impacted by the lack of ‘social runners’ it is still a significant number. Leading English trainers such as Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Olly Murphy have opted to save some of their leading lights for the Grand National meeting and it will be interesting to see if that approach pays dividends.

What will also be interesting is whether or not there is – numerically – a large Irish challenge.

As a rule, Willie Mullins tends to avoid Aintree (certainly doesn’t usually have many runners over the three days) with Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting

taking place the following week and the Punchestown Festival is, generally, where he likes to saddle his stable stars before their season comes to an end. Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead have targeted this fixture in the past and after a relatively quiet Cheltenham Festival – by his high standards – I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Elliott send over a strong squad.

On a separate note, it will be fantastic to see crowds flocking back after a two-year absence. The Grand National meeting means a lot to the people of Liverpool – and also economically to the entertainment industry in and around the city centre – so it was a huge blow when the 2020 fixture was cancelled. It took place in 2021, but without any spectators and it was a surreal experience being on course on Grand National day, with so few people in attendance. It was fantastic to see huge crowds return to the Cheltenham Festival and something similar at Aintree will enhance the spectacle no end.

Hopefully, the original publication helped you find a few winners throughout the Cheltenham Festival – or at least keep your head afloat – and likewise, it is hoped that the upcoming pages assist in your search for winners between 7th – 9th April.

Enjoy the action and be lucky, Paul.

CROWDS WILL BE BACK AT AINTREE THIS YEAR

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Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Contents

Welcome ............................................................................................. 2 Post-Cheltenham Update .............................................................4 Keepin' It Fresh For Aintree........................................................12 Randox Grand National Preview............................................. 66

DAY ONE Manifesto Novices’ Chase ......................................................... 14 Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle.............................................18 Betway Bowl Chase .....................................................................22 Aintree Hurdle................................................................................ 26

DAY TWO Top Novices’ Hurdle .................................................................... 30 Mildmay Novices’ Chase ........................................................... 34 Melling Chase ................................................................................ 38 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle ............................................................... 42

DAY THREE Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.............................................................. 48 Maghull Novices’ Chase .............................................................52 Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle........................................... 56 Randox Grand National ..............................................................60

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

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AINTREE 2022

Post-Cheltenham Update THIS year’s Cheltenham Festival got underway with what appeared to be a very strong renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but the race was torn apart by Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill, who broke the course record in devastating fashion. Sat in third – off a very strong pace – he coped with the better ground comfortably and once the freewheeling front-runner Dysart Dynamo crashed out and the third last, he loomed upsides stable-mate Jonbon on the run to two out and soon put the race to bed, before stretching away in emphatic fashion.

He had 22 lengths to spare over the runner-up and the talk in the immediate aftermath of both the race itself and the conclusion of the festival, was of a possible trip to Punchestown to take on dual Champion Hurdle heroine Honeysuckle. Owner Michael Buckley had actually mentioned the possibility of this mouth-watering clash in an interview with Nick Luck two days prior to Constitution Hill’s win in the

Supreme and whilst that would be a race to savour, I felt that Aintree would still be a feasible option. If he were to run in the Top Novices’ Hurdle, he would almost certainly scare off most of the potential opposition and the £56,270 would be most helpful in Henderson’s pursuit for another trainers’ title.

However, Henderson has all but ruled out a trip to Aintree, suggesting recently that it will likely be Punchestown – where he will also have the option of the Grade 1 novice hurdle – (if anywhere) next.

If the trainer has a re-think (I certainly would with the prize money on offer), Constitution Hill – who was handed an official BHA Rating of 170 after his victory in the Supreme – would clearly be very hard to beat. In his likely absence, Henderson might well have an able deputy in the shape of Jonbon, who was unbeaten prior to the Supreme. Despite finishing 22 lengths behind his stable-mate, he ran well in defeat and interestingly, of Henderson’s five

CONSTITUTION HILL RUNS RIOT IN THE SUPREME

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Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle since 2010, four had finished second or third in the Supreme.

Runners-up from the festival opener boast a fine record at this meeting and Jonbon carries the silks of JP McManus, whose Darlan (2012) and My Tent Or Yours (2013) won the Top Novices’ on the back of finishing second in the Supreme. Lightning could easily strike for a third time.

Whilst on the subject of Nicky Henderson-trained novice hurdlers, Walking On Air didn’t make it to Cheltenham, but – according to his trainer when speaking at the Weatherbys Bank Cheltenham Festival Preview Evening – could be back in time for Aintree. A comfortable winner at Newbury on his sole start in mid-January, the well-bred five-yearold was being lined up for a tilt at the Ballymore, but the trainer seemingly run out of time, following a minor hold-up after Newbury. Whilst it is never easy to run in a Grade 1 in the spring on just your second start (Dusart attempted something similar last year), he should be respected if lining up in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, with the step up to 2m4f likely to bring about considerable improvement. If Aintree comes a little too quickly, I wonder if Punchestown might also be considered for the son of Walk In The Park, who would have options in Grade 1 company and also in the Louis Fitzgerald Hurdle, a race specifically for horses who have won no more than once. His dam Refinement won Grade 1s at the Punchestown Festival in both 2005 and 2007, so he is certainly bred to handle the track in County Kildare.

Moving onto the Arkle – the second race on day one – and Edwardstone justified favouritism for Alan King and Tom Cannon, despite an early scare, when he did well to avoid the fall of Brave Seasca. As he had done earlier in the campaign, he jumped soundly and once sent on two out, the result never really looked in doubt. A fine leap at the last sealed victory and he was 4½ lengths clear of the supplemented Gabynako at the line. It was a polished performance and he would set a high standard if lining up in the Maghull Novices’ Chase on day three, a race that just four Arkle winners have contested since 2008; all four won. A winner at Aintree as a novice hurdler, he also run well at this meeting last year (third in a handicap off 149) and has clearly improved significantly for fences.

Earlier in the season, he won the Henry VIII at Sandown, Kempton’s Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase and the Kingmaker at Warwick, and all three Graded races feature in the Other Key Races subsection of the race preview. A dominant force in this division, the one slight concern would be that this would be his seventh start of the campaign and you would

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

just wonder if he would be able to uphold his form.

In fairness, he ran well at both Cheltenham and Aintree last spring, on his fifth and sixth starts, respectively.

Twice this season Edwardstone has already beaten Third Time Lucki who is set to arrive at Aintree on the back of a short break. A horse who has gone well when fresh in the past, he finished runner-up to the Arkle winner in the Kingmaker, after which Dan Skelton opted to swerve Cheltenham, with the Maghull in mind. He was over the top when disappointing at this fixture last year – something else which was surely taken into consideration – and he is very much at his best on good ground. His 30-length defeat of Do Your Job (a handicap winner since off a mark of 140 and had earlier finished runner-up to Edwardstone in the Wayward Lad) reads well and the Mildmay course should really play to his strengths, as he is all about speed. Should Alan King resist the temptation of going for another Grade 1 – or indeed should he not quite be at his very best, at the end of a long season – it could be that Third Time Lucki is the one to take advantage. As for the Arkle second Gabynako, he seemed to appreciate the better ground (also wore a tongue-tie for the first time) and would be of interest if considered for the Manifesto Novices’ Chase, the very first race of the meeting. He would likely get similar conditions at Aintree, although the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse on Easter Sunday is another likely option for Gavin Cromwell’s seven-year-old, who ought to benefit from stepping back up in trip by half-a-mile.

The feature on the opening day of the festival – the Champion Hurdle – was, of course, won for a second successive year by the unbeaten Honeysuckle, who will almost certainly head to Punchestown at the end of April, in a bid to win their equivalent race for a second time. The interesting one with Aintree in mind would be third home Zanahiyr who looks ready for a step up in distance, yet still ran a cracker to finish just a length off the runner-up. He wore first-time cheekpieces, which appeared to help him travel more kindly, and he kept on in a likeable manner, once mastered at the final flight. Despite his pedigree suggesting otherwise, his running style has long suggested that going up in distance could unlock further improvement and the extra half-mile of the Aintree Hurdle could be right up his street. The fact that he has been able to perform with such credit over the minimum trip this season speaks volumes of his natural ability and whilst five-year-olds don’t have a particularly good record in the race (only two winners of that age group – Al Eile and Solwhit 5

– in the past 32 years), he would warrant utmost respect if travelling across the Irish Sea. Given that Cullentra House (in the name of Denise Foster) won the race last year and Gordon Elliott often seems keen to target this meeting – certainly more so than Willie Mullins and other leading Irish trainers – it would seem highly likely that he will be given an entry at the very least.

2020 Champion Hurdle winner Epatante split Honeysuckle and Zanahiyr, returning to somewhere near her best. Beaten 9½ lengths in 2021, she finished 6 lengths closer to the winner this year and might well have finished closer still, but for an error at the last. Yet to race beyond 2m, Nicky Henderson stated recently that the Aintree Hurdle is being considered and the track should play to her strengths. The trip is very much the unknown, although her half-sister Tante Sissi won the Mares’ Finale over 2m4½f at Newbury in 2012, so her pedigree offers hope. Interestingly, only one of the past 18 Champion Hurdle seconds to have run in this race has been successful (see page 26 for further details).

Day two got underway with a comfortable success in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle for the well-backed market leader Sir Gerhard. In truth, it didn’t look as strong a contest as is usually the case and last year’s Champion Bumper winner made quite light work of the opposition, and is another who seems likely to wait for Punchestown (Willie Mullins usually saves his best novices for that fixture). Runner-up Three Stripe Life will probably do the same, but he has now chased home the winner the last twice, so perhaps Gordon Elliott will consider him as part of his Aintree team, with the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle a likely easier option. As his pedigree suggested he might, he relished the longer trip and he almost halved the deficit from their earlier clash – over the minimum trip – at the Dublin Racing Festival. The fact that he was able to hold his own in Grade 1 company over shorter and on better ground is another positive, and the likes of Nichols Canyon and Black Op won the Mersey on the back of placing in the Ballymore in recent years.

Jumping certainly won the day in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, with L’Homme Presse confirming his stamina, on his first start over 3m.

In the build-up to the festival – and prior to his target being confirmed – I felt that he could run in the Turners before stepping up to this sort of trip in Aintree’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase. He would clearly be a major player if lining up, although his owner has expressed reservations about the meeting coming too quickly on the back Cheltenham and it should be remembered that the ground was pretty testing on the Wednesday. It was also his 6

fifth start since the 3rd December, which is something else to consider. Farouk d’Alene looked like launching a serious challenge when falling two out and his owners (Gigginstown) were responsible for the last Irish-trained winner of the Mildmay, Quito de la Roque (2011). Runner-up Ahoy Senor kept on really well on the climb to the line, having lost ground with a mistake at the downhill fence, three from home. Reverting to a flatter, more galloping track would be beneficial and it should be remembered that he won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at this fixture in 2021. His five runs have been more spaced out, but it remains to be seen as to whether Lucinda Russell will allow her stable-star one more outing before he goes out into the field. Russell is very much working back from the 2023 Gold Cup with her son of Dylan Thomas.

It could, therefore, be one of the two non-runners in the race that is most interesting from the Brown Advisory. Bravemansgame was pulled out due to the deteriorating ground and he will now arrive at Aintree on the back of almost two months off. He had, of course, beaten Ahoy Senor in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day (having earlier been beaten by the same rival in last year’s aforementioned Sefton) and the chase track at Aintree should be perfect for Paul Nicholls’ surefooted novice. He is another who appears to relish a flat, left-handed track (form figures on such courses reads 112111) and given that absence since Newbury in mid-February, he will likely take some stopping in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Nicholls has won this race four times since 2006, with Big Buck’s and Silviniaco Conti amongst that quartet.

Not too many horses got involved in the Coral Cup, but Camprond ran well for a long way, on ground which would have been much softer than ideal. Prominent throughout, he sat in second spot off the home bend and although eventually fading into fourth, it was an eye-catching effort, on his first start in 122 days. Fourth in the Greatwood Hurdle (strong form) on his previous start,

CAMPROND WINNING AT CHELTENHAM BACK IN OCTOBER

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

he clearly goes well at Cheltenham, and having had a lengthy mid-winter break, is likely to be aimed at Aintree’s 2m4f handicap, which kicks off day two. Runner-up at this fixture last year, that Coral Cup form might well be slightly less reliable than is usually the case – due to the lack of horses making an impact from behind – but, nevertheless, it was an encouraging run and Philip Hobbs’ six-year-old is unexposed over an intermediate trip. His mark of 140 remained unchanged.

Novices have a fine recent record in that 2m4f handicap hurdle (run last year as the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle and won by Tronador) and it could be that is the chosen target of Good Risk At All, who missed the Coral Cup by one.

Declared as number 27, Sam Thomas’ six-year-old was first reserve until the day before the race, at which point he was eliminated. Much to his trainer’s frustration, the overnight rain ensured that there were three non-runners, so he is likely to be aimed at this contest and he remains potentially well-treated from a mark of 137. A very smart bumper performer last term, he took his time to get his act together over hurdles, but it clicked at Ascot last time, when he bolted up by 9 lengths. Again, his jumping wasn’t foot-perfect, but it improved once Charlie Deutsch allowed him to sit closer to the pace and he remains capable of further improvement after just four starts and one over this sort of trip.

In the same Dai Walters’ silks, Sam Thomas is also set to send Skytastic to Aintree, for either the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle or the Sefton. He featured in the Spring Horses To Follow section of the publication and won at Ascot, shortly after going to print. He would need to take a big step forward to make an impact in Grade 1 company, but he is a lovely long-term prospect and could well run a big race in either contest. He is held in high regard by his young trainer and remains unbeaten.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase went the way of Energumene, who is another who is sure to wait for Punchestown, whilst the race lost plenty of lustre when Shishkin was pulled-up after failing to travel in the early part of the contest. The bad ground was offered as the reason by connections, and whilst the Melling Chase at Aintree was originally pinpointed as a possible next target, it now seems more likely that he will wait for the Celebration Chase at Sandown, on the final day of the season. That is also the most likely port of call for Nube Negra, who was another non-runner on the day due to the ground. Dan Skelton’s speedball goes best fresh, so shouldn’t be underestimated on his return and would likely relish a track like Aintree. It is, therefore, a shame for his connections

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

that there is no Grade 1 over the minimum trip at the meeting, so Sandown surely awaits.

Delta Work denied stable-mate Tiger Roll a dream send-off in the Glenfarclas Chase and is now fairly prominent with most firms in the antepost market for the Grand National. The weights for the Aintree feature were raised by 5lbs at the latest forfeit stage, leaving Delta Work with 11-8 to carry. He is a class act, however, and if the ground was on the soft side, I could see him running a big race. The Cross-Country route is a tried-and-tested path to Aintree for trainer Gordon Elliott, with Tiger Roll winning that race on both occasions before he won his two Nationals, whilst Silver Birch – Elliott’s first Grand National winner back in 2007 – finished runner-up in the same event en route to Aintree. He is definitely respected from a class angle.

Whilst on the subject of the Grand National, all three of my ante-post selections from the publication have been in action since we went to print.

Delta Work’s stable-mate Escaria Ten was beaten a nose by Any Second Now in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and the pair now head the betting for the National (both a best-price 12-1 at the time of writing). He did little wrong and although he will be 1lb worse off with the winner – who, of course, finished third last year after suffering interference – a big run looks on the cards. Longhouse Poet was a shade disappointing in the Boyne Hurdle, having travelled well for a long way, whilst Fiddlerontheroof is another who finished runner-up last time, in the Listed Swinley Chase at Ascot. Reported to have lost a shoe, he did little wrong and stayed on strongly up the home straight, looking the likeliest winner at the final fence. Collared in the closing stages, I would hope that he will travel more kindly at Aintree, if the ground is less testing, and would still be hopeful that he can put forward a big performance. He is readily available at 25-1, whilst Longhouse Poet is the same price with Hills (who offer the Non-Runner-No-Bet concession).

Back to day two at Cheltenham and the card, as always, concluded with the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. This looked to be an above-average renewal and the top two in the market – and the top two (clear) on BHA Ratings – dominated the finish.

That pairing will likely clash again in the Grade 1 at Punchestown, whilst the best of the English-trained was Authorised Speed (5th) who paid a handsome compliment to Paul Nicholls’ Henri The Second, who has been kept fresh and is being targeted at the Grade 2 that concludes the Grand National meeting. He boasts a similar profile to last year’s winner Knappers Hill, having won the same Listed event at Ascot last time.

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Moving on to day three and an eye-catcher in the Pertemps Final was fourth home Winter Fog, who failed to jump with any fluency, but still looked set to throw down a big challenge when delivered at the final flight. Emmet Mullins’ eight-year-old was wearing a first-time hood and was having his first start since finishing runner-up in a qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. The Pertemps Final was just his second start for his current connections and he looks more than capable of winning something similar, if jumping more fluently. It will be interesting to see if his shrewd trainer considers him for the 3m handicap hurdle at Aintree, with the sharper track looking likely to suit.

For a second year in a row Allaho dominated the Ryanair Chase field and ran out a 14-length winner in the end. With no race over an intermediate trip at Punchestown, it is possible that he will be considered for the Melling Chase, the feature on day two of the Grand National fixture. Willie Mullins has won the Melling twice since 2014, most recently with Min in 2019, and this would seem the logical place to go, rather than attempting 3m or once again dropping back in trip (as he did last year) at Punchestown. The Mildmay course suits front-runners on the chase track and he would be very difficult to peg back if turning up in the same sort of form. Last year’s Ryanair second Fakir d’Oudairies skipped the festival this year, presumably with a repeat bid in mind, so his connections will be hoping that Mullins and Cheveley Park Stud opt to call it a day for the season with Allaho. Beaten 12 lengths in last year’s Ryanair, he finished the same distance behind the winner at Thurles in January and 8 lengths off him in the John Durkan. Joseph O’Brien’s seven-year-old has since won the Ascot Chase (after publication) and will likely make a bold bid to become the sixth horse to win back-to-back renewals, should Allaho fail to travel.

ALLAHO WINS A SECOND RYANAIR

In the other championship event on the card, Flooring Porter won a second successive Stayers' 8

Hurdle and having disappointed at Punchestown last year, is reportedly set to head to Aintree. He now sets the standard in this division, although there would be a minor concern that the pick of his form has come on the back of a break and his favoured style of racing (making all) is not easy to execute on the hurdles track. Runner-up Thyme Hill reversed Long Walk form with Champ and was successful in the Liverpool Hurdle (otherwise known as the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle) last year.

A more truly-run race might well have aided the chance of Philip Hobbs' eight-year-old at Cheltenham, but he ran well in defeat and should put up a strong defence of his crown on Grand National Day. Stable-mate of Thyme Hill, Sporting John was forced to miss the festival – where he had the option of running in either the Pertemps Final or the Stayers’ Hurdle – on the eve of the meeting, but is expected to return at Aintree. Still fairly lightly-raced, it is likely that the Grade 1 will be his chosen target, given that he has a rating of 155 over hurdles. Hobbs, therefore, would appear to hold a strong hand in that particular contest.

The penultimate race on day three was the Grade 2 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, in which Grangee caught the eye, staying on strongly from the back of the field, as she had done 12 months earlier in the Champion Bumper. She fared best of the six mares who were representing Willie Mullins and having raced wide and out the back for the most part, came home with some purpose under Paul Townend. Not overly big, she will likely remain over hurdles next season, so could be campaigned with the Mares’ Hurdle in mind, although a likely target in the coming weeks would surely be the Grade 1 over 2m4f at Fairyhouse. That contest – the Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final – was won in 2019 by Honeysuckle no less and Willie Mullins has saddled five winners of the race since 2003. The all-conquering trainer was responsible for four winners in the space of six years between 2013 and 2018 (that run book-ended by Annie Power and Laurina) and being a full-sister to Box Office, she is bred to relish the extra half-mile. Her sibling was made famous for becoming the final horse ever to be ridden by AP McCoy and although she is unlikely to head to Aintree, she is very much one to consider for Grade 1 honours during the month of April.

Grangee had finished sixth in the 2021 Weatherbys Champion Bumper and that form was well advertised throughout the week, thanks to Sir Gerhard (1 st), Kilcruit (2nd) and Three Stripe Life (4th), and Elle est Belle – who also came from off the pace to finish third – is another who skipped

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Cheltenham, with Aintree’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle in mind. She could have taken her chance in the Dawn Run, but would have been penalised, so Dan Skelton instead relied upon Nurse Susan, who finished just one place behind Grangee in fourth.

A bumper winner at Aintree in October 2020 and runner-up in last year’s Grade 2 Nickel Coin, Elle est Belle could well give the boys something to think about, in receipt of her sex-allowance.

Gold Cup day was dominated by Willie Mullins, who saddled five of the first six winners, ensuring that he ended the week with a record-breaking 10 winners to his name. Vauban got the ball rolling in the Triumph Hurdle, where he confirmed the Spring Juvenile form with the placed horses and also reversed earlier maiden hurdle form with Pied Piper. The winner will, presumably, run in the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown, whilst the third home Pied Piper would be interesting if aimed at Aintree’s Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle. Given that the Irish had the first five home in the Triumph – and the first two in the Boodles, for good measure – it is safe to assume that their crop of juveniles are superior to those trained in England. Whilst a third bout with Vauban would be fascinating viewing, Pied Piper travels as though a speed test would suit and Aintree might offer a better chance of landing a second Grade 1 for owners, Caldwell Construction (who could run Fil Dor at Punchestown). Pied Piper travelled really well to the foot of the hill in the Triumph and showed his ability to handle better ground when winning with ease on trials day. He pulled the best part of 5 lengths clear of the remainder and would set a very high bar, if forming part of the Gordon Elliott team for Aintree. Already a winner in Graded company, he would tick plenty of boxes for the Anniversary, with 10 of the past 16 winners having finished in the first three in the Triumph.

Mullins took the County Hurdle with the lightly-raced novice State Man, who will surely enter Grade 1 company at the Punchestown Festival.

Third home Colonel Mustard caught the eye with how he travelled through the race and is reportedly being considered for the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, where the longer trip could bring about further improvement. A second-season novice, he has performed well at the top level – behind the likes of Jonbon (Ascot) and Sir Gerhard (Leopardstown) – and shapes like an extra half-mile could help. He finished ahead of Elle est Belle in the Kennel Gate and could renew rivalry.

The same connections’ Naughtinesse seems set to accompany Colonel Mustard and will take her chance in the Grade 2 Nickel Coin Mares’ Bumper.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

A half-sister to stable-mate Politesse and former three-time Grade 1 winner Don Poli (and a full-sister to Debece), she shaped with an abundance of promise in a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last spring and duly went one place better when successful at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. Sore shins prevented her from running at the Dublin Racing Festival, but the Aintree contest has been on the radar of Lorna Fowler ever since and the daughter of Kayf Tara should be respected if making the journey.

Talking of the Nickel Coin, Nicky Henderson’s Luccia threw her name into the hat with a polished display in Listed company at Sandown. A winner of a newcomers’ contest at Warwick on debut, she travelled supremely well in soft ground last time and readily stretched right away to score by 17 lengths. The runner-up had finished tenth in the Grade 2 at the Dublin Racing Festival, whilst the third and fourth had filled the first two places in a similar event at Cheltenham on trials day. By Sussex Stakes winner The Gurkha, she is a threeparts sister to the same connections’ Hooper, so is bred to handle much better ground and clearly isn’t short of pace. She looks to be an exciting filly and will receive a handy 8lbs age-allowance from her elders.

LUCCIA WAS A WIDE-MARGIN WINNER AT SANDOWN

One more to note with that race in mind is Ashroe Diamond, who looked a smart prospect when winning on debut last May and also travelled well when runner-up at Galway during the summer.

She returned from a lengthy break to finish a close-up fourth in that aforementioned Grade 2 at Leopardstown and did hold an entry (at five-day stage) in the Sandown contest which was won by Luccia. The daughter of Walk In The Park shaped 9

well at Leopardstown, as she was short of room off the home bend and might well improve for the outing, given that is was her first start in 191 days.

Back to the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and Mullins saddled the first two home in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – a race which was marred by the fatal injury suffered by Ginto on the home bend – with the winner The Nice Guy successful on just his second start over hurdles, staying on strongly to spearhead another Irish 1-2-3. Another who is likely to wait for the Punchestown Festival, this result means that the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle could have the look of a winnable contest, so the Irish might be tempted to travel. One horse who missed the festival through injury was Blazing Khal, who twice beat Gelino Bello at Cheltenham earlier in the campaign. Charles Byrnes’ likable six-year-old is another who is likely to be aimed at the Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, but if coming to hand a little sooner than expected, perhaps he will be considered for a trip to Aintree.

The aforementioned Solwhit enjoyed a couple of big days in Liverpool, whilst Weapon’s Amnesty took his chance in the Sefton following his victory in the 2009 Albert Bartlett, so it is a meeting which Byrnes has targeted previously. He warrants respect wherever he turns up in the closing weeks of the season, whilst Gelino Bello – who returned to winning ways at Newbury in early-March and had earlier won a maiden hurdle at Aintree in October – is reportedly on target for a crack at the Sefton.

The St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase was won in dramatic fashion by Billaway, who provided Patrick Mullins with a third winner of the week, following on from Stattler (National Hunt Chase) and Facile Vega (Champion Bumper). Runner-up in the previous two renewals, he came from a long way back to grab Winged Leader on the line. The runner-up had beaten the winner by 12 lengths at Thurles in January and got into a lovely rhythm towards the head of affairs, so might be suited by the configuration of the course at Aintree, should he be given the green light to tackle the big fences. Mighty Stowaway looks an improved performer from last spring, when he finished only sixth at Cheltenham and tenth at Aintree. He has won four Point-toPoints since then and travelled with real purpose on Gold Cup day, hitting the front at the foot of the hill, only to be outstayed. On this evidence, he should be suited by the shorter trip at Aintree, whilst it is worth remembering that last year’s Cheltenham winner Porlock Bay skipped a repeat bid this year, with Aintree to the forefront of Will Biddick’s mind.

He has been beaten twice this term, but travelled really well at Bangor in February, again suggesting that the sharper test should be ideal. He boasts plenty of form over 2m2f – 2m3½f from his days in France and has to be taken seriously judged on last season’s form. He also won a 2m4f Point at Kimble on his first start in England (November 2020), so the trip could easily be much more to his liking.

BLAZING KHAL BEATS GELINO BELLO AT CHELTENHAM IN NOVEMBER

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Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

To conclude, a couple more – who skipped Cheltenham – names for the handicap hurdle notebook are Jay Bee Why and Washington. The former ran in the 2m5f handicap at Kempton the day after the Gold Cup, a race which was previously a consolation race for those who were balloted out at Cheltenham (Good Risk At All would have been a perfect fit in years gone by). Twice a winner over hurdles last term, he finished fifth behind My Drogo in last year’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and following a promising start over fences at Exeter, he failed to build on that and was switched back to hurdles on what was his first start since January. He travelled well, as is often the case, and ran a creditable race to finish fourth, having been short of room at a key stage. With that run under his belt, he could go well in the 2m4f handicap hurdle on day two of the Grand National meeting.

And, finally, Washington is one to note in the concluding race on the same day, the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. Olly Murphy primed Copperless for this race last year and he looked all set to deliver, until taking a heavy fall two out.

His lightly-raced son of Kayf Tara gained compensation in Haydock’s Swinton Hurdle the following month and it seems as though Murphy is again

targeting the conditional jockeys’ contest with another lightly-raced novice. A two-time bumper winner last term, he defied keenness to score on hurdling debut at Bangor, after which he finished runner-up to Betfair Hurdle second I Like To Move It, in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. He again took a keen grip when third at the same track in December, before making an encouraging handicap debut at Warwick the following month. Held-up, he made smooth headway to lead two out, where a fairly serious error proved costly and he came home in third, behind two subsequent winners Barrichello (who could run in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr) and Good Risk At All, who won off a 3lbs higher mark at Ascot. Washington reverted to novice company at Southwell last time, where he readily brushed aside weaker opposition, meaning his potentially lenient looking handicap mark of 127 remains intact.

Significantly, he was partnered on that occasion

by Fergus Gregory, who will again be aboard at Aintree, and the likely strong pace seems sure to bring about further improvement in the good-looking son of Westerner. If he settles in the early part of the race, he should run a big race and expect him to be delivered late.

WASHINGTON IS ONE TO NOTE ON DAY TWO AT AINTREE

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

11

Keepin’ It Fresh For Aintree

Paul Nicholls made it clear that he was happy to bypass last year’s Cheltenham Festival with some of his high-profile horses, with the decision to focus on Aintree a clear and considered one. The Champion Trainer reaped the rewards, as Monmiral and Clan des Obeaux won Grade 1s on the opening day. Nicholls had to wait for the final race of the three-day fixture – the Grade 2 bumper – to land his third winner of the week, with Knappers Hill another who avoided the festival in March.

THE likelihood is that Covid restrictions – and the inability for owners to attend – had an impact on the spring targets of several horses last year, but small fields have been a common theme throughout this season and with the Irish looking set to dominate Cheltenham once again, perhaps more horses will skip the festival with a trip to Liverpool in mind.

Born and raised in Liverpool and now living just a stone’s throw from the course, Aintree is a meeting that means a lot to me, personally, but not everyone sees it that way. Certainly not in the past anyway, but maybe things are changing.

Whilst factoring in the previous paragraph and the possibility that last year was an anomaly, it is worth noting that overall, only six of the 21 winners at last year’s Grand National meeting had run at Cheltenham. Five of them had finished first or second at the festival, whilst Abacadabras – the sole ‘Cheltenham winner’ on the opening day – had fallen in the Champion Hurdle. In contrast, six of the seven winners on the Thursday in 2019 (no meeting in 2020, remember) had run at Cheltenham three weeks earlier, whilst those opening day totals were four and five in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Overall, 13 (2017), 12 (2018) and 14 (2019) winners had run at Cheltenham on their previous outing, so it was a significant drop last year and whether that was purely down to less ‘social runners’ at the festival remains to be seen. But, it will be interesting to find out and with the approach paying off for Nicholls in 2021, will he – as well as others – consider a similar viewpoint?

The aforementioned Clan des Obeaux is certainly one of the leading lights from Ditcheat, who will be fresh ahead of his Bowl defence on day one. After two failed attempts in the Gold Cup (5th in 2019 and 8 th in 2020), Aintree was made his primary target last spring and he was able to 12

follow-up in the Punchestown Gold Cup, downing Al Boum Photo in a thriller. Runner-up in the King George, he has followed the exact same path back to Aintree, taking in Newbury’s Denman Chase en route. As was the case last year, he was beaten at Newbury (much further this time), albeit at a time when the stable were out of form.

Shortly after Bravemansgame had won the Kauto Star, Nicholls suggested that the Brown Advisory might be off the table for his high-class novice, with the Mildmay a viable option. Possibly remembering his reversal in last year’s Sefton – which came on the back of a Ballymore defeat – the fresh angle was again possibly in play, although a quick re-think – following a reported discussion with joint owners – means that the powerful sevenyear-old is on course to take his chance on day two of the festival.

Nicholls’ former assistant Dan Skelton has often targeted the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and indeed won it last year with My Drogo. Following her recent Huntingdon success – in the Listed Sidney Banks Novices’ Hurdle – the Warwickshire-based trainer suggested that the Dawn Run wasn’t necessarily the next target for Elle est Belle, but she would likely be saved for the 2m4f Grade 1 on Grand National day. Incidentally, narrow second in the Sidney Banks Gentleman At Arms is also likely to be aimed at Aintree, with Stuart Edmunds suggesting the Sefton could be the ideal spring target for his grey, who doesn’t hold any entries at Cheltenham. The astute Edmunds – and jockey Ciaran Gethings – enjoyed success at last year’s meeting, when Hometown Boy overcame a serious error to land the staying handicap hurdle. That race might also come under consideration for Gentleman At Arms, whilst Elle est Belle clearly acts well at Aintree, having won a bumper at the track in October 2020, before returning to finish runner-up

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

in the Grade 2 Nickel Coin at this fixture. A mare with a good turn of foot, perhaps Skelton believes that armoury is best implemented on this speedbased track.

Shortly before going to print, Lucinda Russell issued a warning shot to backers of Ahoy Senor – who still has the Brown Advisory (left in the race at the latest forfeit stage on 15th February) and indeed the Gold Cup as Cheltenham options – suggesting that the 2023 Gold Cup was his main objective and heading to this year’s festival wasn’t 100% assured.

Again, the Mildmay Novices’ Chase would instead become his focal target if skipping the festival, where he could clash with Bravemansgame for a third (or fourth, if they do both run in the Brown Advisory) time. Aintree is a track that would likely suit Ahoy Senor, who is unbeaten in four starts over obstacles on flat, left-handed tracks, Ayr, Aintree, Newbury and Wetherby. Despite shifting to his right at times, he clearly appreciates a course

with such configuration and the tighter Old course at the festival is probably one of the determining factors in the minds of both Russell and partner, Peter Scudamore. A winner at the fixture last year, the chase track should be even more suited to his running style.

Of the more established horses, Olly Murphy made it clear from early in the season that returning to Aintree – where he won so impressively on reappearance – would be the route taken with stable-star Brewin’upastorm, who has shown consistent form throughout the campaign. His connections seem happy that an intermediate trip is his optimum nowadays and with no such race at the festival and the nine-year-old appearing to go well fresh, it makes sense to target a second crack at the Aintree Hurdle. He has a couple of key trends to overcome (see the race preview), but he is a high-class performer and is likely to offer the young trainer his best chance of landing a spring Grade 1.

BREWIN’UPASTORM

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

13

DAY ONE MANIFESTO NOVICES' CHASE

MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE

2m3f 200y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

WE have now had 12 renewals of the Manifesto Novices’ Chase and 10 of the dozen winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month, either contesting the Arkle or the Turners Novices’ Chase (formerly the JLT then the Marsh). This race was handed Grade 1 status after just three years and it was moved to be the opening race of the three-day fixture in 2015. Given the nature of Aintree’s flat track, horses with plenty of natural pace do well in this race, so respect those stepping up in distance and those with smart form in the book over the minimum trip (over fences and/or hurdles).

CHELTENHAM FORM

AS touched upon in the Overview, 10 of the 12 winners to date had run at the Cheltenham Festival. Five of those had run in the Arkle Trophy, so were stepping up in trip, with Menorah having fared best at Cheltenham, when finishing third.

That makes sense, as those who win the Arkle would normally remain over the minimum trip – ala Shishkin last year – and contest the Maghull on Grand National day. The other five winners of this race to have run at the festival had contested the Turners Novices’ Chase, which is staged on day three and over a similar trip to this. Both Wishfull Thinking and Uxizandre finished runners-up at Cheltenham before going one place better, so pay healthy respect to both pieces of form.

Last year, Protektorat bucked this trend, by becoming just the second winner – the other being Arzal – to have skipped Cheltenham. He arrived at Aintree on the back of a wind-op, which followed a shock reversal in a small-field novices’ chase at Kelso in February. Surprisingly, of last year’s seven-strong field, only three had run at Cheltenham, those being The Shunter (won the ‘Plate’), Eldorado Allen (2nd in the Arkle) and Fusil Raffles (2nd in the Turners). As has been well-documented already, with owners not being allowed into Chel14

tenham last year, there is a theory that some horses skipped the festival with Aintree in mind, knowing that owners (albeit in limited numbers) would be allowed to attend.

PROMINENT POSITION

TRACK position is often key at Aintree, with horses who like to race prominently often favoured on the Mildmay chase track. Protektorat actually sat in mid-division for the most part, but was never too far from the pace and that is important, as often the front-runners don’t come back, especially if the ground is no worse than good-to-soft. A good-jumping front-runner is often at an advantage on this course and you certainly don’t want a horse who likes to be ridden with exaggerated waiting tactics.

GRADE 1 WINNERS

THE only previous Grade 1 winner in last year’s line-up was Fusil Raffles, who was sent off favourite, but was pulled-up after bursting a blood vessel (made a serious mistake down the far side).

However, such horses boast a good record in this race, be it Grade 1 winning hurdlers or earlier in the season, in novice chase company. The record of Grade 1 winners in this race stands at four wins

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

HURDLES FORM

FUSIL RAFFLES had won his Grade 1 as a hurdler and strong form over the smaller obstacles, particularly over the minimum trip, seems to be a positive in this event. As touched upon already, Aintree is essentially a speed-based track and races over an intermediate trip at the course require a horse who possesses plenty of natural pace and horses with good 2m hurdling form seem to do well in this race. Menorah was a high-class hurdler, whilst both Captain Conan and Finian’s Oscar won the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown the previous season.

Respect any horse boasting strong form over hurdles, particularly over the minimum trip.

AINTREE FORM

DAY ONE MANIFESTO NOVICES' CHASE

from 14 runners, so pay healthy respect as class will often prevail.

KEY TRENDS 10 of the 12 winners contested either the Arkle (5) or Turners Novices’ Chase (5) at the Cheltenham Festival 10 of the 12 winners spent just one season hurdling Grade 1 winners are 4-14 since the race was upgraded 11 of the 12 winners were in the top 3 of the betting 10 of the past 11 winners were rated 150 or higher 9 of the past 10 winners had run 4 or 5 times over fences 9 of the past 10 winners had won twice over fences 8 of the 12 winners had run 7 times or less over hurdles

LAST year’s winner had never run at Aintree previously, but since the race was upgraded, six of the nine winners had run at the meeting as a novice hurdler, with five of those half dozen finishing in the first three. Both Menorah – although two years earlier in his case – and Captain Conan finished runner-up in the Top Novices’ Hurdle, whilst Clarcam finished runner-up in the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle. Flying Angel finished third in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier, whilst Finian’s Oscar won that contest the year before winning the Manifesto. Sadly, last year’s impressive Mersey winner My Drogo has been ruled out for the season (met with a setback over the Festive period), as this race had looked an obvious spring target.

7 of the past 8 winners were aged 6

QUICKLY SENT CHASING

Irish-trained horses are 1-9

6 of the past 9 winners had run at Aintree as a novice hurdler 5 of the past 9 winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Respect those who race prominently Respect strong 2m hurdles form Philip Hobbs is 2-3 Nicky Henderson is 2-8 No winner of this race won last-time-out Mares are 0-5 Paul Nicholls is 0-13 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede are 0-3 5yo’s are 1-9 (the other 8 failed to hit the frame)

THE aforementioned Menorah spent two full seasons hurdling and before last year, was the only winner of this race not to be sent chasing after just one season over the smaller obstacles. Having failed to win as a juvenile, Protektorat also spent a second season hurdling, albeit as a second-season novice. As with most of the novice chases at the various spring festivals, this race tends to be dominated by horses who switched to chasing at the soonest possible opportunity. Going chasing after a novice hurdling campaign means that a horse will have greater scope to improve, whilst learning their new trade.

only winner to have been successful on the back of just three chase starts, whilst nine of the past 10 winners had run four or five times over fences previously. Of those past 10 winners, Captain Conan had won three times, whilst the other nine had won twice over fences previously.

CHASING EXPERIENCE

CURRENT FORM

ALL bar one of the 12 winners had run at least four times or more over fences. Mad Max is the

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Only 1 of the 12 winners was sent off at odds greater than 11-2 Only 1 of the 12 winners was favourite Only 1 of the 12 winners had run just 3 times over fences

STRICTLY on the form figures, Protektorat ran well on his previous start, finishing runner-up, although 15

DAY ONE MANIFESTO NOVICES' CHASE

he was actually beaten 43 lengths in a three-runner contest at Kelso. He became the fourth winner of this race to have finished second on their previous start, although interestingly, no winner of this race had won last-time-out. As already touched upon (see opening subsection), 10 of the 12 winners were arriving here having been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival.

AGE

PROTEKTORAT became the eighth winning six-year-old overall and the seventh in the past eight renewals. To date, Clarcam is the sole fiveyear-old winner (rather like the Cheltenham novice chases, such horses find it difficult now that the age allowance has been removed come the spring) and the record of such horses stands at 1-9 following last year, when second-favourite Hitman faded into third late-on. With only seven horses going to post, Hitman failed to hit the frame, as did the other seven five-year-old runners in the race.

MARKET FORCES

ON the back of being well-beaten at Kelso, Protektorat was sent off 17-2 last year and only fifth in the betting. He became the very first winner of this race to return at odds greater than 11-2, with the previous highest-priced winner being Tartak in the inaugural running (2009). Only Captain Conan has justified favouritism in a race which has been dominated by those just in behind the market leader, with the second- and third-favourites performing particularly well.

MARES

THERE were no mares in the line-up last year, but their record stands at 0-5, despite receiving a 7lbs sex-allowance. Of the five to take their chance, La Bague Au Roi was sent off favourite in 2019, Rene’s Girl chased home Finian’s Oscar 12 months earlier, and Pepite Rose was also sent off at just 4-1 (she was also a five-year-old) in 2012. Be slightly cautious of any mares asked to take on the boys.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

WITH Fairyhouse and Punchestown staging key races domestically, the Irish challenge at Aintree is often fairly thin on the ground. Only once have the Irish plundered this prize thus far (Clarcam) and nine Irish-trained horses have taken their chance, all since 2011. The Shunter finished runner-up last year, but the overall record of the Irish clearly isn’t great. Willie Mullins invariably keeps his novices back for Punchestown – giving them longer to get

16

over their Cheltenham exertions – whilst Fairyhouse stages a Grade 1 novice chase over 2m4f just 10 days after the Manifesto, in the shape of the Underwriting Exchange Gold Cup (which actually took place five days before Aintree last year, as it is always held on Easter Sunday).

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

SINCE 2010, all bar one of the 11 winners were rated at least 150, coming into the race. Protektorat was rated 150 last year, whilst eight of those past 11 winners were rated between 151 and 155, with Wishfull Thinking having obtained the highest-rating of any previous winner (prior to the race). Respect those already rated in the 150s, although it should be said that all bar 10 of the runners during the past five years were rated 150 or higher, so this wouldn’t be the strongest statistic, numerically.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

ONLY two trainers have won this race more than once, with Philip Hobbs winning back-to-back renewals with Wishfull Thinking and Menorah. Both carried the two-tone blue silks of Mrs Diana Whateley, although many of her horses are now trained elsewhere, several now in the care of Olly Murphy.

Hobbs’ only runner since also carried the Whateley silks, that being Garde la Victoire in 2016.

Nicky Henderson has also saddled two winners, with Mad Max and Captain Conan successful either side of the Hobbs-trained double. He has had six runners since without success, with L’Ami Serge (2 nd) going closest in 2016. Top Notch finished third the following year (beaten favourite) and the double-green of Simon Munir & Isaac Souede was also carried by last year’s beaten favourite, Fusil Raffles. Therefore, the leading owners are currently 0-3 in this race and all three were sent off at odds of 9-2 or shorter.

Gordon Elliott is the only Irish trainer to have won this race, with Clarcam carrying the silks of Gigginstown House Stud, who have since been responsible for two third placings (their only two subsequent runners).

Finally, the third placing of Hitman last year means that the record of Paul Nicholls now stands at 0-13. Nicholls deliberately swerved Cheltenham with several Aintree runners last year – Hitman included – and I expect that he could do the same once again this year. It is likely that his luck will eventually change in this event, but for now, his record is one to be wary of, especially when you consider that nine of his 13 ‘losers’ were sent off at 11-2 or shorter.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Shishkin on the Town Moor, but pay healthy respect to the form once again. This year's race was won

by Third Time Lucki, who appeals as the type of horse should relish this track. It seems unlikely that he will be asked to step up in distance, however, so the Maghull Novices' Chase could be the race for him. One of the leading English-trained contenders for the Arkle Trophy, he looks tailor-made for Aintree’s speed test and following his defeat in the Kingmaker, there is actually a possibility that he will miss Cheltenham and head straight to Liverpool.

THIRD TIME LUCKI LOOKS AN IDEAL TYPE FOR AINTREE

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 1122

Protektorat

Age Weight 6

OR

SP

Trainer

11-7

150

17/2

D Skelton

Runners 7

Last Race (No. of days) 2nd Kelso Novice Chase (48)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 1122U

6

11-4

148

4/1

A Murphy

6

u.r. Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (23)

2018 132P5 Finian’s Oscar

Kalashnikov

6

11-4

151

5/2

C Tizzard

6

5th Gr.1 Turners Nov. Chase (28)

2017 1FP16

Flying Angel

6

11-4

150

5/1

N Twiston-Davies

6

6th Gr.1 Turners Nov. Chase (21)

2016 81132

Arzal

6

11-4

151

4/1

H Whittington

8

2nd Gr.2 Doncaster Chase (68)

2015 21128

Clarcam

5

11-4

153

5/1

G Elliott (IRE)

6

8th Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (30)

2014 1152

Uxizandre

6

11-4

153

11/4

A King

5

2nd Gr.1 Turners Nov. Chase (21)

2013 1115

Captain Conan

6

11-4

152

6/5F

N Henderson

7

5th Gr.2 Turners Nov. Chase (21)

2012 411F3

Menorah

7

11-4

151

3/1

P Hobbs

5

3rd Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (30)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Turners Novices’ Chase 4 (Captain Conan 5th, Uxizandre 2nd, Flying Angel 6th, Finian’s Oscar 5th) Arkle Trophy 3 (Menorah 3rd, Clarcam 8th, Kalashnikov u.r.)

Lightning Novices’ Chase 2 (Menorah fell, Arzal 2nd) *Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle 3 (Captain Conan 1st, Finian’s Oscar 1st, Kalashnikov 2nd) *Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Flying Angel 3rd, Finian’s Oscar 1st) * denotes previous season

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

17

DAY ONE MANIFESTO NOVICES' CHASE

OTHER KEY RACE

THE record of those hailing from both the Arkle or the Turners Novices’ Chase have been covered earlier, as have the notable novice hurdle races from the previous campaign. In terms of novice chases from elsewhere in the season, it is noticeable that three winners of this race – Mad Max, Menorah and Arzal – all contested the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster in late-January. It is also noticeable that all three were beaten in the 2m½f Grade 2. Eldorado Allen was unable to enhance this record last year, having chased home

DAY ONE ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O HURDLE

ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE 2m 209y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

HANDED Grade 1 status in 2005, the Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle is the third top-level juvenile race of the season in Britain, following the Finale at Chepstow and the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Prior to 2005, any Triumph winner would have had to shoulder a penalty when attempting to complete the Cheltenham-Aintree double, but since this race also became a Grade 1, the record of Triumph winners is much stronger. The Triumph remains the obvious starting point when assessing this contest.

CHELTENHAM FORM

SINCE 2001 (the year when the festival was lost to the Foot And Mouth outbreak), only three winners of this race had failed to run at Cheltenham. The first of those was L’Unique, whilst more recently both We Have A Dream (forced to miss Cheltenham through injury) and last year’s winner Monmiral also skipped the festival. Both L’Unique and Monmiral purposely avoided Cheltenham, but overall, during the past 20 renewals, 17 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival.

10 of the past 16 winners (since the race was upgraded in 2005) had contested the Triumph Hurdle on their previous start, so that is the first port of call when looking at this race. Last year’s Triumph second Adagio filled the same spot in the Anniversary, whilst five horses have completed the Triumph-Anniversary double since 2006. Detroit City, Katchit, Zarkandar and more recently Defi du Seuil and Pentland Hills are the quintet in question, whilst another five winners since 2005 finished second or third in the Triumph, so pay particular attention to those who finished in the first three on Gold Cup day. Last year’s Triumph winner didn’t take his chance here, but eight have since 2005, with the record of such horses reading 11212211.

One of those Triumph winners to be beaten into 18

second was Celestial Halo, who was put in his place by subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Binocular back in 2008 and Nicky Henderson’s runner had finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on his previous start. It isn’t too common nowadays for four-year-olds to contest the Supreme in receipt of an age-allowance, but the same owner (JP McManus) did run Fakir d’Oudairies in the race three years ago. Having finished fourth at Cheltenham, he finished runner-up in the Anniversary, beaten a neck by Triumph winner Pentland Hills.

Two more fairly recent winners (since 2010) were stepping up in class, having contested the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Orsippus finished third in the ‘Fred Winter’ whilst All Yours finished only fifth and it is likely that both won weak renewals of the Anniversary. In the past seven renewals, four Boodles winners have attempted to step up in grade in this race. The most recent being Band Of Outlaws, who finished only fifth, when sent off the 9-4 favourite in 2019. Sanctuaire, who won the Boodles in 2010, could finish only third behind Orsippus when sent off favourite and is the only one to hit the frame. Therefore, be cautious if the winner of that race takes their chance, with proven Graded form from Cheltenham much more significant.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 10 of the past 16 winners finished in the first 3 in the Triumph 12 of the past 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 earlier in the season 9 of the past 13 winners started their racing career in France Horses rated 152 or higher are 5-8 since 2007 Since the race was upgraded, all 8 Triumph winners to have run have finished 1st or 2nd (five have successfully completed the double) 14 of the past 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles 13 of the past 16 winners were in the top 3 on BHA Ratings 12 of the past 16 winners had run 4+ times over hurdles 10 of the past 14 winners were trained by Nicholls, Henderson or King 6 of the past 8 winners were French-bred The Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner is 3-7 during the past 13 years Respect fillies (especially French-bred) Alan King is 4-7 since 2007 Respect Philip Hobbs’ runners Only 1 of the past 16 winners had failed to win or place in Graded company Only 1 of the past 16 winners failed to finish in the first 3 last-time-out Only 3 of the past 20 winners failed to run at Cheltenham Only 3 of the past 26 winners were trained in Ireland Be wary of the Boodles winner (0-4 since 2010)

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

THERE have only been two Irish-trained winners of this race since it became a Grade 1 and only three since 1995 (past 26 renewals). Al Eile finished runner-up in the race we now know as the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle – staged at Leopardstown over Christmas – and the two more recent Irish winners – Guitar Pete and Apple’s Jade – were both successful in the same Grade 2. This season’s renewal was won impressively by Fil Dor, who won his first three starts for Gordon Elliott, before finishing runner-up to Vauban in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. It should be noted that many a leading Irish juvenile will be saved for the Grade 19

DAY ONE ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O HURDLE

OTHER KEY RACES

AS touched upon in the Overview, the first Grade 1 of the season for juveniles in Britain is the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over Christmas. Going back to the 2008-09 season, Walkon won the Finale en route to winning this race (also finished runner-up in the Triumph), whilst more recently, both Defi du Seuil and We Have A Dream were successful in Monmouthshire. Since 2009, the record of the Finale winner at Aintree reads 1663112 and this season’s race was won by Porticello, who stayed on strongly to score for Gary and Jamie Moore.

Even earlier in the season, the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial Juvenile Hurdle (registered as the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) was contested by two of the past seven winners of this race. Guitar Pete finished runner-up at the November meeting, whilst Defi du Seuil was successful and it is worth noting that Adagio also finished runner-up in this (and won the Finale) before finishing second in last year’s Anniversary. This season’s Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle was won by the Milton Harris-trained Knight Salute, who then beat Finale winner Porticello in the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster in mid-December.

The other Cheltenham contest to take notice of is the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle on trials day. Since 2009, Walkon, Grumeti (promoted to 1st place) and Defi du Seuil have all won the late-January Grade 2, which this year went the way of Pied Piper.

Away from Cheltenham and the aforementioned Summit Juvenile Hurdle has now been won by two of the past three winners of this race, We Have A Dream and Monmiral. As stated above, Knight Salute beat Porticello in this season’s renewal.

Also pay close attention to the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton, a race which is staged after the Guide goes to print. Since 2011, three of the past 10 Anniversary winners contested this Grade 2, with only Zarkandar completing the double. The other pairing were placed and whilst that race has proven to be a piece of form to be wary of in relation to the Triumph, it has been a relatively good guide to the Anniversary. Going back to 2008, Binocular beat Pierrot Lunaire, who won Aintree’s Top Novices’ Hurdle, so it was a hugely significant piece of form for this meeting in that particular year.

Graded form is almost essential when it comes to this race, with Orsippus the only winner since 2005 (when the race became a Grade 1) who had failed to win or place in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 earlier in the campaign. A dozen of the 15 had won at either level.

DAY ONE ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O HURDLE

1 at Punchestown, after running in the Triumph.

THE FRENCH CONNECTION

MONMIRAL became the sixth French-bred winner out of the past eight. Binocular and Walkon were back-to-back French-bred winners in 2008 and 2009, whilst such horses have really started to dominate this race since 2013. There were only two French-bred runners in last year’s six-strong field and Monmiral was one of three runners who started their racing careers in France. During the past 13 renewals, 49 of the 131 runners (37%) started life in France – either on the Flat or over hurdles – so a record of nine winners during this period is pretty strong. French-imports invariably do well in this division (due to their precociousness) and this race is certainly no exception. Pay healthy respect to such runners.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

GIVEN that proven Graded form comes to the fore in this race, it should come as little surprise that the higher-rated horses tend to dominate. Last year’s winner was joint top-rated with an official BHA Rating of 147 and 13 of the 16 winners since 2005 (when the race gained Grade 1 status) came from the top three in the ratings. 10 of those – including the past four winners – were either top-rated or joint top-rated, whilst horses rated 152 or higher boast an outstanding recent record. Since 2007, only eight such horses have contested the Anniversary and five were successful. Pay healthy respect to any juvenile with such a lofty official BHA Rating.

At the other end of the scale, those three ‘lesser-rated’ winners during this period were rated in the 130s. They were the only trio to be successful, having earlier obtained an official BHA Rating below 143.

HURDLING EXPERIENCE

ZARKANDAR and Pentland Hills are the least-experienced recent winners of this race. Both won the Triumph on their second start over hurdles and completed the hat-trick in this event. However, of the past 16 winners (since the race became a Grade 1), 12 had run at least four times over hurdles, with eight of those having had between five and seven runs, so experience can be viewed upon as a positive. 14 of those past 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles previously.

CURRENT FORM

OF those past 16 winners, only All Yours – who finished fifth in the Boodles – failed to record a top three finish on their previous start. The past 20

four winners won last-time-out, so look for a horse who is arriving at Aintree on the back of a positive performance.

FILLIES TO BE RESPECTED

THERE was one filly in the field last year and although Fiveandtwenty was eventually wellbeaten by both Monmiral and Adagio, she pulled 9 lengths clear of the remainder to finish third. The 7lbs sex-allowance appears to help in this race – as it does in many a Grade 1 – with two fillies having been successful since 2013 and all from just 10 runners. Going back a little further, Bilboa was successful in 2001 and all three winning fillies from this century were French-bred.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

WITH three wins since 2008 and having saddled back-to-back winners in 2018 and 2019, Nicky Henderson is the trainer with the best recent record in this race. Paros finished unplaced for the Seven Barrows team last year – although was a 20-1 outsider – and his record in the Anniversary stands at 3-20 during this century. His record since 2008 (inclusive) stands at 3-14, so give his chosen runner(s) respect.

Paul Nicholls joined Alan King on four wins last year and interestingly, all four of Nicholls’ winners had run in France – either on the Flat or over hurdles – before joining his stable. The 33-1 shot Le Duc provided Nicholls with a first Anniversary win back in 2003, having seen Azertyuiop finish runner-up two years earlier, and since the turn of the century, Nicholls has now had 25 runners in the race.

Alan King earned his four winners from much fewer runners and boasts a fantastic strike-rate in the race. His four winners (and a second) came in a seven-year period between 2007 and 2013, and he has only had two runners since. Without a runner in the past four renewals, his record since 2007 (inclusive) stands at 4-7, so take any runner from Barbury Castle very seriously indeed.

Interestingly, two of King’s four winners – plus that aforementioned second (Kumbeshwar) – carried the familiar silks of the McNeill Family, who clearly like to target this fixture, having also enjoyed Grade 1 success when The Worlds End won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in 2017.

Between them, Messrs Henderson, Nicholls and King have saddled 10 of the past 14 winners of this race.

Philip Hobbs has won the race three times since the turn of the century, with both Lord Brex and Detroit City carrying the yellow and black silks of

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

in this race and these include another trio who finished second or third.

PIED PIPER - ANOTHER LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR AINTREE

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 111

Monmiral

Age Weight 4

11-0

OR

SP

147

10/11F

Trainer P Nicholls

Runners 6

Last Race (No. of days) 1st Haydock Juvenile Hurdle (47)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 11

Pentland Hills

4

11-0

153

11/4

N Henderson

9

1st Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2018 41111

We Have A Dream 4

11-0

145

2/1

N Henderson

10

1st Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial (67)

2017 11111

Defi du Seuil

4

11-0

155

4/11F

P Hobbs

8

1st Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2016 112

Apple’s Jade

4

10-7

145

3/1

W Mullins (IRE)

9

2nd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2015 F125

All Yours

4

11-0

138

16/1

P Nicholls

10

5th Gr.3 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (29)

2014 12113

Guitar Pete

4

11-0

144

13/2

D Hughes (IRE)

15

3rd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (20)

2013 4113

L’Unique

4

10-7

135

10/1

A King

10

3rd Gr.2 Adonis Hurdle (40)

2012 1F113

Grumeti

4

11-0

148

11/4F

A King

11

3rd Gr.1 Triumph Hurdle (27)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Summit Juvenile Hurdle 2 (We Have A Dream 1st, Monmiral 1st) Triumph Hurdle 5 (Grumeti 3rd, Guitar Pete 3rd, Apple’s Jade 2nd, Defi du Seuil 1st, Pentland Hills 1st) Adonis Hurdle 2 (L’Unique 3rd, All Yours 2nd) Finesse Hurdle 2 (Grumeti 1st, Defi du Seuil 1st) Finale Juvenile Hurdle 2 (Defi du Seuil 1st, We Have A Dream 1st) Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle 2 (Guitar Pete 1st, Apple’s Jade 1st) JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Nov.) 2 (Guitar Pete 2nd, Defi du Seuil 1st)

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

21

DAY ONE ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O HURDLE

Terry Warner to success, whilst more recently Defi du Seuil provided Hobbs with a third Anniversary.

Since 2000, Hobbs has only had a dozen runners

DAY ONE BETWAY BOWL

BETWAY BOWL CHASE

3m 210y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

FIRST run in 1984, the Bowl – which was known as the Martell Cup for many years – was handed Grade 1 status in 2010 and is the feature steeplechase amongst a quartet of Grade 1s on the opening day of the three-day meeting. Four horses in total have won this race more than once, most recently Silviniaco Conti, whose trainer Paul Nicholls won the race for a fifth time last year, with Clan des Obeaux.

TACTICS

AS I have already touched upon (see the Manifesto Novices’ Chase preview) racing prominently on the Mildmay course over fences is a positive and in the Bowl in particular, it really can pay to race close to the speed. Often a small field, being ridden positively – especially on a sound jumper – is certainly favourable, and allowing an opponent an uncontested lead around Aintree can be very dangerous.

Ruby Walsh gave Kemboy a stunning front-running ride when making all in 2019 and last year’s winner was never far from the pace, in fact sat a close-up second until being left alone in front when Mister Fisher came down, halfway down the back straight.

From that point, Harry Cobden dictated matters and really poured it on after the penultimate fence, eventually winning by 26 lengths. Focus on those who like to be ridden forward.

THE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

25 of the 37 winners of this race had contested the Gold Cup the previous month. Last year’s winner deliberately swerved the festival, but given that this is a Grade 1 staged over the best part of 3m1f, the Gold Cup is the most obvious recent piece of form to start with. Only two of last year’s ninestrong field had run in the Gold Cup, those being Native River (3rd) and Aso (5th), whilst the previous six winners of the Bowl had contested the 22

Gold Cup, with three of them failing to complete.

Of those half-dozen winners, only Might Bite had gone close in the Gold Cup, finishing runner-up, as Exotic Dancer had in 2007 ahead of his win in the Bowl. However, it can usually pay to tread carefully with those who appear to have had a hard race in the festival showpiece, whilst it is also important to note that there was four weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree when both Might Bite and Exotic Dancer were successful. That extra week could well have proved highly significant and we have just the standard three-week gap (as is usual) between meetings this year. The likes of Denman (twice), Kauto Star and Imperial Commander were all beaten in this race, on the back of seemingly hard races in the Gold Cup.

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

AS touched upon in the Overview, this race has been won by multiple winners in the past, whilst recent winners Silviniaco Conti and Might Bite had won the Mildmay Novices’ Chase prior to winning the Bowl (two years earlier, in the case of Silviniaco Conti). The winner of that race last year was Chantry House.

Silviniaco Conti finished third in the Aintree Bowl in 2013, before winning the next two renewals, whilst Nacarat and Follow The Plan also finished third before winning the race 12 months later. Clan

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KINGS OF KEMPTON

LAST season’s King George winner Frodon didn’t run in the race, but prior to that, four of the previous six winners had won the King George VI Chase earlier that same season. Silviniaco Conti (twice), Cue Card and Might Bite are the quartet in question, whilst Nacarat, Tea For Two and Clan des Obeaux finished fourth, fourth and third, respectively, so seven of the past 10 winners finished in the first four at Kempton on Boxing Day. This season’s race was won by Tornado Flyer, with Clan des Obeaux finishing second (following the fall of Asterion Forlonge) and Saint Calvados and Frodon completing the first four.

As I have highlighted in previous editions of the Guide, Kempton form often translates to Aintree, despite one being right-handed and the other left.

Both are essentially speed-based tracks, which require a horse with the natural pace to travel well throughout. In chases, both tracks require horses who can get into a nice jumping rhythm and earlier this century See More Business, Florida Pearl and First Gold all completed the King George/Bowl double.

In addition to this, Tea For Two had won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase the season before he won the Bowl, whilst Might Bite would have done the same but for a final fence fall. Silviniaco Conti finished runner-up in the same race two seasons before winning his first Bowl, and last season’s Kauto Star was won by Shan Blue, who has been off the track since falling in the Charlie Hall Chase on his sole start this term. He is expected to return to action in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.

SHAN BLUE

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 25 of the 37 winners ran in the Gold Cup 7 of the past 10 winners ran in the King George (13 of the past 23 winners finished in the first 4 of that season’s King George) Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times 9 of the past 11 winners returned at 7-2 or shorter 6 of the past 8 winners were top or second top-rated 5 of the past 6 favourites have won Horses rated 170+ are 4-9 during the past 7 renewals Willie Mullins is 2-4 in the race Respect previous form in the race Respect those who like to race prominently Be wary of genuine hold-up performers Be wary of those who had a hard race in the Gold Cup Only 4 of the past 25 winners were trained in Ireland No last-time-out winner since 2010

OTHER KEY RACES

ASIDE from the King George and Gold Cup, the other Grade 1 staying chase in the domestic calendar is Haydock’s Betfair Chase and five of the past 10 winners of the Bowl had run on Merseyside earlier in the campaign. Clan des Obeaux is the latest to hail from that race and as pointed out in last year’s Guide, he finished tired which might well have been detrimental to his chances in the King George. As a consequence, Paul Nicholls opted to skip the Betfair with him this year and the race was won in emphatic fashion by A Plus Tard.

A PLUS TARD

23

DAY ONE BETWAY BOWL

des Obeaux was twice placed in the race before finally landing the prize last year, so pay healthy respect to the form of last year’s race, although in truth, it is hard to really imagine any of the beaten horses getting involved this time around.

DAY ONE BETWAY BOWL

Last year’s Gold Cup runner-up went on to finish second in the Savills Chase over Christmas, where he (perhaps) got to the front sooner than ideal and was eventually run out of it by the Gordon Elliott-trained Galvin (beaten only a short-head). Four of the past 11 winners of the Bowl ran in the Savills, with only What A Friend and Kemboy successful.

This track would likely play to the strengths of A Plus Tard, although a lot will depend on how he gets on in the Gold Cup and he is believed to need time between his races. He was handed an entry at Aintree last year, but didn’t take up the engagement.

Back to England and the Charlie Hall Chase is another early-season contest which has proven to be a good guide to this race. Three of the past 10 winners ran in West Yorkshire, with Nacarat and Cue Card both victorious. As stated in the previous subsection, Shan Blue would have run out an easy winner of this season's race and the track at Aintree would also likely suit his front-running style. He was beaten 32 lengths in last year’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase, but that came at the end of a long season (sixth run) and is easily forgiven. Still only rated 148, he will likely have handicap options at the Cheltenham Festival, but has been given an entry in the Ryanair Chase and remains an exciting young chaser. Protektorat is another possible contender for trainer Dan Skelton, with him having won last year’s Manifesto and the seven-year-old made it two-from-two at the track, when winning the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase by 25 lengths in December.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

THE only Irish-trained runner in last year’s Bowl field was Tiger Roll, with the dual Grand National winner a slightly controversial runner, after his connections were unhappy with the rating/weight he was handed in the ‘big one’. The Irish have actually only won four of the past 25 renewals, although three of those wins have come in the past decade (and the record during this period is 3-14). Florida Pearl provided Willie Mullins with a first win in the race back in 2002 and although he had to wait another 17 years until Kemboy made it two Bowls for the trainer, he has saddled only four runners in the race during that period. His two ‘losers’ came in the same year, with Don Poli (2nd) and Djakadam (3rd) chasing home Cue Card six years ago, so pay healthy respect to any horse who Mullins runs in the race. Of his many staying chasers, it could be that King George winner Tornado Flyer is best-suited to the Mildmay course, as he isn’t short of speed, although he does tend to come from off the pace, which isn’t ideal.

The aforementioned Tiger Roll represented 24

Gigginstown House Stud and although the powerful owners have won the Bowl just the once – with First Lieutenant – they have since had a couple of horses hit the frame. They seem more than happy to target the race, whereas many an Irish horse is saved for the Punchestown Gold Cup, at the end of April.

MARKET FORCES

CLAN DES OBEAUX justified favouritism and in doing so, became the fifth winning favourite in the past six renewals. Tea For Two denied Cue Card by just a neck in 2017, otherwise it would have been half-a-dozen consecutive winning favourites in the race. Nine of the past 11 winners were sent off at odds of 7-2 or shorter, so it is a race which has been dominated by the top of the market, with the 50-1 shock win of Follow The Plan an anomaly.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

SINCE 2013, seven of the eight winners were rated at least 168 coming into the race, with Tea For Two (158) 10lbs below that minimum. Six of those seven winners were either top-rated or second top-rated, with horses rated 170 or higher boasting a particularly strong recent record. Although it hasn’t worked out in the past two renewals, horses with such a lofty rating have won four of the past seven renewals and all from just nine runners. Those quartet of winners were officially rated between 172 and 177.

CURRENT FORM

YOU have to go back to 2010 and What A Friend to find the last last-time-out winner of the Bowl, with the past 10 winners all unsuccessful on their previous outing. Of those 10, only four finished in the first three and two of those – including last year’s winner, who was beaten in the Denman Chase – avoided Cheltenham. Therefore, don’t be too disheartened by a defeat last time, as it is common when looking for the winner of this race.

FIVE OF THE BEST FOR NICHOLLS

AS touched upon in the Overview, Clan des Obeaux provided Paul Nicholls with a fifth win in the race.

All five of his winners were sent off at 5-2 or shorter, with three of the quintet justifying favouritism.

Kauto Star and Denman (twice) were beaten in this race for the champion trainer, but he has seen a further five horses finish either second or third over the years, from 21 runners this century. Therefore, almost half of his runners have finished in the first three and it is a race which he clearly takes very seriously. Last year’s winner is once again being aimed at the race and is likely to be the stable’s number one hope.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY ONE BETWAY BOWL PAUL NICHOLLS CELEBRATES A FIFTH WIN IN THE RACE

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 232

Clan des Obeaux

Age Weight 9

OR

SP

11-7

169

5/2F

Trainer

Runners

Last Race (No. of days)

P Nicholls

9

2nd Denman Chase (46)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 11U

Kemboy

7

11-7

168

9/4F

W Millins (IRE)

6

u.r. Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2018 112

Might Bite

9

11-7

172

4/5F

N Henderson

8

2nd Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (27) u.r. Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2017 5241U Tea For Two

8

11-7

158

10/1

N Williams

7

2016 4111F

Cue Card

10

11-7

176

6/5F

C Tizzard

9

fell Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2015 5117

Silviniaco Conti

9

11-7

173

7/4F

P Nicholls

7

7th Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (27)

2014 314

Silviniaco Conti

8

11-7

177

9/4

P Nicholls

6

4th Gr.1 Cheltenham Gold Cup (20)

2013 42322 First Lieutenant

8

11-7

168

7/2

M Morris (IRE)

8

2nd Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (22)

2012 6244

9

11-7

152

50/1

Follow The Plan

O McKiernan (IRE) 11

4th Listed Gowran Handicap Chase (23)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES * Kauto Star Novices’ Chase 2 (Tea For Two 1st, Might Bite fell) King George VI Chase 6 (Silviniaco Conti 1st & 1st, Cue Card 1st, Tea For Two 4th, Might Bite 1st, Clan des Obeaux 3rd) Cheltenham Gold Cup 6 (Silviniaco Conti 7th & 4th, Cue Card fell, Tea For Two u.r., Might Bite 1st, Kemboy u.r.) *Aintree Bowl 3 (Follow The Plan 3rd, Silviniaco Conti 3rd & 1st) Betfair Chase 4 (Silviniaco Conti 1st & 3rd, Cue Card 1st, Clan des Obeaux 2nd) Savills Chase 3 (Follow The Plan 6th, First Lieutenant 2nd, Kemboy 1st) Charlie Hall Chase 3 (Nacarat 1st, Silviniaco Conti 5th, Cue Card 1st) * denotes previous season

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

25

DAY ONE AINTREE HURDLE

AINTREE HURDLE 2m4f (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

PREVIOUSLY staged on Grand National day, the Aintree Hurdle – which is the only Grade 1 hurdle race over an intermediate trip at any of the spring festivals – was moved to the opening day of the meeting in 2013. In a race which can bring together two-milers and staying hurdlers, the introduction of the Stayers Liverpool Hurdle now means that there is another option at the fixture for the three-milers. The most recent multiple winners of the race – Al Eile and Oscar Whisky – have shown that specialists at this trip can flourish in this event, whilst seven horses have won the race more than once, most notably Morley Street, who won four consecutive renewals between 1990 and 1993.

More recent top-class winners to grace the roll of honour include the mighty Istabraq, Barton, The New One, Annie Power and Buveur d’Air.

TACTICS

IN contrast to the chase course, the hurdles track at Aintree lends itself towards a smooth-travelling hold-up performer. The hurdles course is on the outside of the chase track and with no hurdle on the side of the course at this meeting (the cross-flight, which is now in place during the winter, is removed for the Grand National meeting) there is plenty of time for horses to make their move, between the final flight down the back and the first up the home straight. Rather like the New course at Cheltenham in that respect, hold-up performers can make up ground in that lengthy gap between flights. Last year’s winner Abacadabras was ridden patiently, although the race fell apart a little when Jason The Militant departed five out, and if anything, the winner probably found himself in front sooner than ideal. Certainly making all on the hurdles track is quite difficult, as front-runners can often set things up for the closers. One thing a hurdler must possess to be successful around Aintree is the ability to travel strongly, as – unless the ground is testing (unusual) – natural pace is a pre-requisite. A good turn of foot is definitely a positive.

26

CHAMPION HURDLE CLASS

ANNIE POWER and Buveur d’Air have completed the Champion Hurdle-Aintree Hurdle double in recent years. Since 1999 when Istabraq completed the double, only five Champion Hurdle winners have contested this race, with the other pair being Rooster Booster (runner-up in 2003) and Rock On Ruby, who finished third in 2012.

Abacadabras fell in the Champion Hurdle, but became the 30 th winner (of the 44) to have run in that race the previous month. Therefore, it is the obvious starting point, when assessing the Aintree Hurdle. Of the past 11 winners, eight contested the Champion Hurdle, with all bar Abacadabras finishing in the first four. Therefore, respect a bold showing in the day one feature from Cheltenham, although tread carefully should the runner-up turn up here, with only Khyber Kim successful out of the past 18 runners-up to contest this race.

At the time of writing, Honeysuckle is a warm order to defend her Champion Hurdle crown and having won over 2m4f on seven occasions, this race could be ideal for her. However, should all go well at Cheltenham, it is much more likely that she will

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

OTHER KEY CHELTENHAM RACES

BOTH L’Ami Serge and Supasundae – back-toback recent winners – dropped in distance to win this race, having finished unplaced in the Stayers’ Hurdle on their previous start. As touched upon in the Overview, such horses now have the option of the 3m contest on Grand National day, but the Aintree Hurdle remains much more prestigious, and is often more suitable to horses such as those, and also Oscar Whisky, who failed to truly stay 3m. He was also unplaced in the Stayers’ before winning his second Aintree Hurdle, so respect those coming back in trip, who had stamina limitations exposed at Cheltenham.

Back in 2002 and 2004, the Coral Cup provided winners of the Aintree Hurdle, with Ilnamar winning the 2m5f handicap and Rhinestone Cowboy finishing third under top-weight. That is a long time ago now, however.

Earlier in the season, the International Hurdle – staged over 2m1f on the New course at the December meeting – has thrown up three Aintree Hurdle winners since 2010. Khyber Kim won the International that year, as did Zarkandar and The New One prior to them winning this race. Last year Song For Someone failed to enhance this record, but three winners from six International Hurdle winners in the past 11 years is noteworthy. This season’s race was won by the improving Guard Your Dreams, who finished third in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle last year and started this season by winning a handicap at Cheltenham’s October meeting. He has since, however, been beaten in the Relkeel at Cheltenham and Sandown’s Contenders Hurdle.

DAY ONE AINTREE HURDLE

be given an extra 22 days recovery, ahead of the Champion Hurdle at Punchestown.

One point worth noting is that every single British-trained winner of the Aintree Hurdle had run at the Cheltenham Festival (with the exception being Barton in the year when Cheltenham fell victim to the Foot And Mouth outbreak). The majority of those ran in the Champion Hurdle, although with more trainers and owners seemingly considering the option of skipping Cheltenham with Aintree in mind these days, that could be a strong statistic that comes under threat in the coming years.

KEY TRENDS Every British-trained winner had run at the Cheltenham Festival The past 9 winners (and 12 of the past 15) had already won a Grade 1 30 of the 44 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle 23 of the past 27 winners were aged 6-8 14 of the past 27 winners were trained in Ireland 9 of the past 20 winners had won at this meeting previously (although only 1 of the past 7) Since 1999, 5 Champion Hurdle winners have run and 3 have won 4 of the past 10 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson Respect hold-up performers Mares are 2-5 since 2006 Only 1 winner was older than 9 (and only 1 winning 9yo in the past 27 renewals) Only 1 of the past 18 Champion Hurdle 2nds to have run has been successful Only 2 of the past 32 winners were aged 5 (5yo’s are 0-9 during the past 11 renewals)

years, with only Buveur d’Air – who had won the Top Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier – matching this trend, from the past seven winners.

Three of the past nine winners – although again, this trio came between 2012 and 2014 – had contested the Aintree Hurdle the previous year, with only Oscar Whisky successful. Last year’s winner Abacadabras hasn’t really been in the same form so far this season, and with the progressive Buzz sadly side-lined through injury, if there is a horse from last year’s race to note, it could well be Brewin’upastorm. He had a wind-operation follow-

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

AS mentioned in the Overview, this is a race in which we have seen plenty of multiple winners over the years and nine of the past 20 winners of this race had won at the meeting previously, although that has become slightly less significant in recent

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

BREWIN’UPASTORM – WINNING AT AINTREE IN NOVEMBER

27

DAY ONE AINTREE HURDLE

ing his fifth last year and returned to action with an impressive victory over course-and-distance. He looked all set to follow up in the aforementioned Relkeel Hurdle, when falling at the final flight, and has run well at this meeting in the past, when runner-up in the 2019 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

Since Cheltenham, he bounced back to winning form in the inaugural running of the aptly-named Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Hurdle at Lingfield and is being aimed at this race once again. He will, of course, need to overcome that statistic of all British-trained winners of this race having run at the Cheltenham Festival.

GRADE 1 WINNING FORM

ANOTHER statistic that Brewin’upastorm will need to overcome is that the past nine winners – and 12 of the past 15 – had already been successful in Grade 1 company. Last year’s winner added his name to this growing list, courtesy of his win in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle and earlier in the campaign, in Punchestown’s Morgiana Hurdle.

Respect winning form at the highest level.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

ABACADABRAS became the fourth Irish-trained winner in the past six renewals, following on from six Irish victories in the space of seven years, between 2003 and 2009. The Irish only had two runners last year, the other being Jason The Militant, who was sent off favourite and was in front when unseating Rachael Blackmore down the far side. Since 1994, there have been 14 Irish-trained winners (from 27 renewals) and all from just 57 runners, so despite not being well-represented numerically, the Irish challenge is notoriously strong.

Those four recent Irish-trained winners had all run at Cheltenham, but some of the others (earlier this century) had enjoyed a ‘quieter’ preparation. Sacundai arrived at Aintree on the back of winning a conditions hurdle at Limerick, Al Eile was freshened up ahead of his second win (first run since Christmas) and had run at Dundalk on the all-weather in the build-up to his third success, whilst Solwhit hadn’t run since winning the Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park in February.

Sacundai had also won that Grade 2 contest, whilst Asian Maze had finished second in it, before falling in the Champion Hurdle. The point here being, don’t overlook a slightly different preparation when it comes to the Irish, for all that it didn’t pay off for favourite backers last year.

Other key races in the Irish calendar include the Morgiana Hurdle, which is the first 2m Grade 1 of the season and was won last season by Abacadab28

ras. 2015 winner Jezki had finished runner-up in that event earlier that season, whilst he had won the WKD Hurdle at Down Royal on his reappearance, a race in which Abacadabras finished second.

Interestingly, this season’s WKD Hurdle was won

by Zanahiyr, who went on to finish runner-up in the Morgiana, then filled the same spot in the Matheson Hurdle. Abacadabras also ran in that race last Christmas, so Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old is following a similar path and looks as though he might appreciate an extra half-mile. He could be a very interesting contender for this race.

Finally, the Irish Champion Hurdle is yet another significant race in the Irish calendar (you don’t say) and like the Matheson Hurdle, has been contested by three Aintree Hurdle winners out of the past six.

Zanahiyr also finished second in this race.

RESPECT MARES

ANNIE POWER is the only mare to take her chance in the Aintree Hurdle in the past 12 renewals, but seven have run in the race since 2006 and two were successful, the other being Asian Maze. Rather strangely, two of the three who ran in 2007 were only four, so if taking those fillies out of the equation, two winners (and two thirds) from five runners is a pretty noteworthy strike-rate. Honeysuckle – as highlighted already – would obviously have an outstanding chance of enhancing that record if allowed to travel, but that would seem unlikely at this stage. Respect any mares that take their chance, in receipt of the sex-allowance.

AGE FOR CONCERN

AS with most open Grade 1s this side of the New Year, those aged five tend to struggle and we have only seen two five-year-old winners in the past 32 renewals, those being Al Eile and Solwhit. Prior to that, the last five-year-old to win the Aintree Hurdle was Celtic Chief back in 1988, and this would be a trend which Zanahiyr would have to overcome, if he is indeed aimed at the race. Five-year-olds are 0-9 during the past decade, with Zarkandar (fell) and The New One (2nd) both beaten at five, before winning the race 12 months later.

At the other end of the scale, Mister Morose is the sole winner of the race aged older than nine. He was successful as a 10-year-old in 2000, and only one nine-year-old has been successful in the past 27 renewals, that being Supasundae. Therefore, it can pay to focus on those aged 6-8, with that age bracket providing 23 of those past 27 winners.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

AS touched upon last year, Nicky Henderson has

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

won the race twice since 2015 and all from just three runners, with her only ‘loser’ being Supasundae, who finished runner-up the year before he won the race. Her Aintree Hurdle form figures of 121 are, therefore, most striking, although she doesn’t seem to have quite the same firepower this season and is lacking that real top-class National Hunt stablestar at present (more focus seems to be on the Flat nowadays for that stable), so it is doubtful that she will be represented.

ZANAHIYR

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 2152F

Abacadabras

Age Weight 7

11-7

OR

SP

Trainer

158

5/1

D Foster (Ire)

Runners 11

Last Race (No. of days) Fell Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 2227

Supasundae

9

11-7

161

15/2

J Harrington (IRE) 7

2018 12238

L’Ami Serge

8

11-7

159

5/1

N Henderson

9

7th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (21) 8th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (28)

2017 1111

Buveur d’Air

6

11-7

167

4/9F

N Henderson

6

1st Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2016 111

Annie Power

W Mullins (IRE)

6

1st Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

8

11-0

162

4/9F

2015 12234 Jezki

7

11-7

166

3/1

J Harrington (IRE) 6

2014 1123

The New One

6

11-7

167

4/9F

Nigel Twiston-Davies 7

3rd Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2013 F1114

Zarkandar

6

11-7

167

11/2

P Nicholls

9

4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (23)

2012 F1115

Oscar Whisky

7

11-7

167

9/4

N Henderson

5

5th Gr.1 Stayers' Hurdle (30)

4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (30)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Morgiana Hurdle 2 (Jezki 2nd, Abacadabras 1st) WKD Hurdle 2 (Jezki 1st, Abacadabras 2nd) Champion Hurdle 6 (Zarkandar 4th, The New One 3rd, Jezki 4th, Annie Power 1st, Buveur d’Air 1st, Abacadabras fell) *Aintree Hurdle 3 (Oscar Whisky 1st, Zarkandar fell, The New One 2nd) International Hurdle 2 (Zarkandar 1st, The New One 1st) Stayers’ Hurdle 3 (Oscar Whisky 5th, L’Ami Serge 8th, Supasundae 7th) Irish Champion Hurdle 3 (Jezki 3rd, Supasundae 2nd, Abacadabras 2nd) Matheson Hurdle 3 (Jezki 2nd, Supasundae 2nd, Abacadabras 5th) * denotes previous season

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

29

DAY ONE AINTREE HURDLE

won the race four times since 2011 and during the past five years, has seen a further four horses finish runner-up. There was talk, earlier in the season, that former Champion Hurdle winner Epatante could step up in distance and tackle the mares’ hurdle at Cheltenham and whilst that now seems unlikely, with her having won the Christmas Hurdle last time, it could be that Henderson considers trying her over an extra half-mile around Aintree.

Henderson’s close friend Jessica Harrington has

DAY TWO TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE

TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE 2m 103y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

HANDED Grade 1 status in 2016, the Top Novices’ Hurdle often offers up the chance of spring festival success to those who have run well in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. When the ground is riding good or good-to-soft, this is a genuine speed-test and the race really does favour those with plenty of natural pace. Nicky Henderson was dominant in this contest at the turn of the decade and won it with subsequent dual-Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d’Air in 2016.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

THE obvious place to start when assessing this race is with the opening contest from the previous month’s Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. No fewer than 12 of the past 22 winners had run in the Supreme, with 10 of them finishing in the first six, so a good run in the festival curtain-raiser is often a very good pointer towards success here. Although the winner rarely tries to follow-up (Menorah was the last Supreme winner to run in the Top Novices’ and he finished second in 2010) five runners-up from the Supreme have won this race since 2005 and another pair who finished in third.

Interestingly, the Supreme second is 5-6 during the past 23 years (since Joe Mac in 1999) and such horses also have a decent record in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, with Best Mate and Spirit Son successfully stepping up in distance, whilst Binocular won the Anniversary on the back of his Supreme second. Ballyadam let this impressive strike-rate down in last year’s Mersey, but the record still stands at a fantastic eight winners from the past 10 Supreme runners-up to have run at Aintree.

More recently, seven of the past 11 winners ran in the Supreme, so although For Pleasure was unable to add to the tally last year, it is very much the most significant recent piece of form to assess.

30

IRISH GO BACK-TO-BACK

PRIOR to 2019, the aforementioned Joe Mac was the last Irish-trained winner of the Top Novices’ Hurdle, but following the victories of Felix Desjy and Belfast Banter, the record of such horses is beginning to look a little healthier. The fact that Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting is often very close to Aintree (this year it is the following week) and that the Punchestown Festival – a fixture which Willie Mullins likes to focus on – comes up at the end of April is probably a determining factor in this (and many races at Aintree). Last year’s winner was the sole Irish runner in the 10-strong field, so the record of such horses from this century now stands at 2-26. Overall, the Irish have won just four renewals, but after back-to-back success, perhaps this race will be given some more consideration this year.

BUMPER FORM

IN a race that previously appeared to suit ex-Flat performers (more of which shortly), the past nine winners ran in bumpers at the start of their careers, with seven of the nine successful at least once in that sphere. Buveur d’Air had won a brace of French bumpers before moving to England, whilst Felix Desjy won twice before finishing sixth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and fifth in the Grade 1 at Punchestown. Last year’s winner was actually a

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

EX-FLAT HORSES

AS stated in the previous subsection, there was a time when ex-Flat horses boasted a good record in this race and it isn’t hard to see why, given the nature of the track. Between 1993 and 2011, 12 ex-Flat horses won the Top Novices’ Hurdle, but in recent years only Aramon has gone close to adding to that tally, when runner-up in 2019. We don’t see as many ex-Flat horses sent hurdling nowadays and the rise of the bumper horses has coincided with the race now being a Grade 1, but it is certainly still worth considering, as the course does lend itself to a naturally speedy individual. For Pleasure was one of two ex-Flat representatives, although his front-running style isn’t really best suited to the hurdles course at Aintree and he finished only fifth, at the end of what was a long season.

Gordon Elliott’s juvenile Pied Piper is currently quite prominent in the betting for both the Supreme and the Triumph (much shorter for the latter) at Cheltenham, and although he would obviously have the option of the Anniversary at Aintree, it is worth remembering that Pierrot Lunaire won this race as a four-year-old in 2008. Pied Piper looked full of pace when winning on trials day, so should be ideally suited to this track.

OTHER NOTABLE RACES

ASIDE from the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the novice contest which has been the best guide to this race in the past decade is the British EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle, from Cheltenham’s December meeting. Darlan and Pingshou both won that race, whilst Lalor finished second in it, and this season’s contest was won by Datsalrightgino, who had a neck to spare over JPR One, with Washington – a horse with plenty of natural pace – back in third.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 12 of the past 22 winners ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (7 of them finished 2nd or 3rd) The Supreme Novices’ runner-up is 5-6 in the past 22 renewals 5 of the past 11 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson 19 of the past 22 winners were aged 5 or 6 The past 9 winners ran in bumpers (with 7 successful at least once) 4 of the past 8 winners contested a championship bumper at one of the spring festivals (3 in the Grade 2 at Aintree) Respect the form of EBF NH Novices’ Hurdle from Cheltenham in December 12 ex-Flat winners since 1993 (but none since 2011) Only 1 of the past 22 winners was aged 4 Only 2 of the past 25 winners were aged 7 Irish-trained horses are 2-26 this century (and have won just 4 of the 44 renewals) Treat the Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle form with caution Pingshou had made his hurdling debut in the Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side on Football “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle at Newbury’s winter carnival and that race was won by Buveur d’Air 12 months earlier. Last season’s contest was won by My Drogo, who ended up winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting, whilst this season’s renewal went the way of Jonbon, who ran out an impressive 6-length winner. He followed the same path as My Drogo, by winning the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle on his next start and has since completed the hat-trick over hurdles in the Rossington Main at Haydock.

Three recent winners – Darlan (fell, when travelling well), My Tent Or Yours (1st) and Lalor (13th) – contested the Betfair Hurdle in February. I Like To Move It did best of the novices in the race this year, finishing a short-head second to Glory And Fortune.

The aforementioned My Drogo went on to win the Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle before winning the Mersey and in the past that Grade 2 – which takes place after publication – has often been a poor guide to this race. The likes of Rouge Vif, Mount Mews (sent off 9-4 joint-favourite) and Glingerburn (sent off 7-4 favourite) have been beaten on the back of winning at Kelso, so treat the winner 31

DAY TWO TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE

bumper winner for Dan Skelton, before moving to Ireland and joining the stable of Peter Fahey.

Lalor was the most successful bumper performer, winning three times from four starts and that third win was gained in Aintree’s Grade 2 Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk NH Flat Race. Both My Tent Or Yours and Buveur d’Air finished in the first four of that race, too, and last year’s renewal looked to be a strong one and has thrown up plenty of subsequent hurdles winners this season.

The race was won by Knappers Hill, with Grade 1-winning stable-mate Stage Star back in third, and the front seven have all won over hurdles, as have five of those who finished in the second half of the field. Respect good bumper form, especially that Grade 2 from last year’s meeting.

DAY TWO TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE

with a degree of caution if lining up here. Perhaps coming back in trip by a couple of furlongs, on ground which is usually much better, makes this a completely different test.

AGE

SINCE 1999 when Joe Mac was successful, all bar three of the 22 winners were aged either five (11) or six (8), with six of the past eight winners aged six. During this period, the aforementioned Pierrot Lunaire – who ran in this with an age-allowance, rather than contesting the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle – is the only winning four-year-old, whilst only two of the past 25 winners – Blythe Knight and Pingshou – were aged seven. Focus on those aged five and six. Last year’s runner-up Do Your Job was a seven-year-old, whilst Houx Gris – who sadly suffered a fatal injury – was the sole four-year-old runner, in receipt of a 6lbs age-allowance. Clearly, Paul Nicholls is happy to run a juvenile in this race.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

GIVEN that he won the race for three years in succession (all three had finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) between 2012 and 2014, Nicky Henderson is the obvious place to start. He has since won it with Buveur d’Air, who finished third in the Supreme, whilst his first winner General Miller unseated at the first in the 2010 Supreme.

Henderson is, therefore, responsible for five of the

past 11 winners and given that he appears to have a very strong team of novice hurdlers this season, there is every chance that he could be well-represented once again.

At the time of writing, both Constitution Hill and Jonbon are on course to run in the Supreme and either (or both) could go on to Aintree, where the Mersey would likely also come under consideration for the former, who has twice powered up the Sandown hill. Jonbon carries the silks of JP McManus, who also owned Darlan and My Tent Or Yours (and bought Buveur d’Air following his win in this race), and he looks to be blessed with plenty of pace, having won two slowly-run races earlier in the season. Balco Coastal, who ran in the bumper at the meeting last year, would be another possible contender for the Seven Barrows team.

Philip Hobbs also won three successive renewals, but that is going back to 2000 – 2002. Again, two of Hobbs’ winners had finished in the first four of the Supreme, whilst Ilico II won the 2001 renewal, when there was no festival due to Foot and Mouth.

He hasn’t had a runner in the race since Menorah finished second in 2010, so his impressive record is a little more historical.

As well as winning the race with Felix Desjy, Gigginstown House Stud saw Petit Mouchoir finish runner-up to Buveur d’Air and they have had five runners since 2014, indicating that they are happy to target the race.

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 125621 Belfast Banter

Age Weight 6

OR

SP

Trainer

11-4

135

9/1

P Fahey (IRE)

Runners 10

Last Race (No. of days) 1st County Hurdle (21)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 75215

Felix Desjy

6

11-4

146

7/2

G Elliott (IRE)

7

5th Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2018 2320

Lalor

6

11-4

133

14/1

K Woolacott

13

13th Gr.3 Betfair Hurdle (62)

2017 4140

Pingshou

7

11-4

133

16/1

C Tizzard

9

10th Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2016 113

Buveur d’Air

5

11-4

152

11/4

N Henderson

11

3rd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2015 311

Cyrus Darius

6

11-4

141

8/1

2014 21122

Josses Hill

6

11-4

148

6/4F

M Jefferson

11

1st Hexham Nov. Hurdle (17)

N Henderson

10

2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (30)

2013 12112

My Tent Or Yours

6

11-4

158

4/11F

N Henderson

4

2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (24)

2012 111F2

Darlan

5

11-4

148

7/4F

N Henderson

12

2nd Gr.1 Supreme Nov. Hurdle (31)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 6 (Darlan 2nd, My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Josses Hill 2nd, Buveur d’Air 3rd, Pingshou 10th, Felix Desjy 5th) EBF National Hunt Novices’ Hurdle 3 (Darlan 1st, Pingshou 1st, Lalor 2nd) Betfair Hurdle 3 (Darlan fell, My Tent Or Yours 1st, Lalor 13th) *Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk NH Fla Race 3 (My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Buveur d’Air 4th, Lalor 1st) Newbury ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle 2 (Buveur d’Air 1st, Pingshou 4th) * denotes previous season

32

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY TWO MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE 3m 210y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

A NOVICES’ chase with a rich history, with Gold Cup winners Bregawn and Burrough Hill Lad winning the first two renewals, whilst a pair of subsequent Grand National winners – Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Royal Athlete – also feature in the roll of honour, during the first 10 years.

Handed Grade 1 status in 2014, the race was won by 2018 Gold Cup 1st & 2nd – Native River and Might Bite – in successive years, whilst Paul Nicholls has won the race four times since 2006, with his quartet of winners including Big Buck’s and Silviniaco Conti.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

WITH this being a novices’ chase over an extended 3m, the obvious race from Cheltenham that you would think to focus on would be the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (formerly the ‘RSA’). However, rather surprisingly, this race doesn’t even feature in the Leading Ten-Year Guides at the end of this race preview, with Might Bite the only winner to hail from that contest in the past 10 renewals. He completed he double, as did Star de Mohaison in 2006, whilst Aces Four (4th after a serious error two out) and Burton Port (2nd) both ran really well in it.

Killyglen and Like-A-Butterfly (who ran at Fairyhouse in between) are the other pair to have run in the Brown Advisory before this race this century.

Interestingly, four of the past five winners of the Brown Advisory to have run in the Mildmay have been beaten, with Topofthegame the last to fall foul of this negative trend.

It is still obviously a piece of form to take very seriously, but in recent years it has been the Turners Novices’ Chase (formerly the ‘Marsh’) which has been most significant. Four of the past eight winners were stepping up in distance, having won or finished second in that contest the previous month, and these include the past three winners.

Dynaste, Terrefort and Lostintranslation all finished 34

runner-up at Cheltenham, with last year’s winner Chantry House the first horse to complete the Turners-Mildmay double. Perhaps having less distance to cover at Cheltenham and building towards a first start at 3m is a positive; it certainly appears to have been in each of the past three renewals.

Other recent winners of this have contested the Ultima Handicap, the Stayers’ Hurdle and the National Hunt Chase, and overall, the past eight winners had finished first or second in one of those five races at the Cheltenham Festival. And, only two of the past 16 winners skipped Cheltenham altogether.

FESTIVE POINTER

PRIOR to the past three years, when the winner was stepping up in trip for the first time, the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase from Kempton on Boxing Day was another key pointer towards this race. No fewer than five of the previous six winners had contested the 3m Grade 1, with only Dynaste successful. Silviniaco Conti and Native River finished second and third, respectively, whilst both Saphir du Rheu and Might Bite were fallers at Kempton, the latter at the final fence, with the race at his mercy. Last year’s Mildmay runner-up Shan Blue had won the Kauto Star and this season’s race was won by Bravemans-

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

The past 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd at Cheltenham

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

3 of the past 4 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson

LAST year’s winner Chantry House hadn’t run at the meeting previously, but the fixture was lost in 2020 (due to the initial Covid-19 outbreak), when he would likely have run in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. The previous winner Lostintranslation had run well in the Mersey 12 months earlier and there are plenty of examples of Grade 1 form from this meeting over hurdles. Pay healthy respect to such form.

Of the potential runners in this year’s race, it should be remembered that Ahoy Senor beat Bravemansgame by 7 lengths in last year’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle, before Paul Nicholls’ charge reversed the form over fences at Kempton. The pair could well be in for another clash on the 8th April.

PROVEN STAMINA

GIVEN the past three results, this could be something of an evolving statistic. Prior to that, only three winners in the previous 27 renewals had failed to win over 3m beforehand, whereas the past three winners were stepping up to 3m for the very first time (under Rules). Chantry House was campaigned over the minimum trip as a novice hurdler and was quick enough to finish third behind Shishkin in the 2020 Supreme, whilst his four earlier novice chase runs came over trips ranging from 2m3f – 2m5½f. Obviously, having stamina in the book is never a bad thing (certainly one less thing to worry about) but not having this box ticked certainly hasn’t hindered the past three winners, so it is something to monitor closely in the coming years.

As I have said already (plenty of times), Aintree is essentially a speed-based track, so possessing natural pace is certainly a positive. Going all the way back to 2002, Barton would be another good example of this, although he was probably just in another league to the opposition. Formerly a top-class novice hurdler (completed the Ballymore-Mersey double), he won the Fighting Fifth and Aintree Hurdle in his second season over hurdles (having missed a season through injury) and was stepping up massively in trip to win this race, having finished only seventh in the Arkle on his last start. He is another good example of horse boasting strong form from the meeting, too.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS

5 of the past 9 winners contested the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase

19 of the past 21 winners had run at least 4 times over fences (11 of them 5+) The past 19 winners returned at 13-2 or shorter (with 12 being 3-1 or shorter) The past 18 winners were Irish (11) or French-bred (7) 17 of the past 21 winners had won at least twice over fences (9 of them had recorded 3 wins or more) 10 of the past 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 9 of the past 18 winners were trained by Henderson or Nicholls 9 of the past 11 winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences French-bred 5yo’s are 3-8 since 2006 4 of the past 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd in the Turners Novices’ Chase (including the past 3) Respect Grade 1 hurdles form at this meeting No winner this century was unbeaten over fences No British-bred winner since 2002 Only 1 winner this century returned at double-figure odds Only 2 of the past 32 winners were older than 8 Only 2 of the past 16 winners skipped the Cheltenham Festival Only 3 Irish-trained winners 4 of the past 5 winners of the Brown Advisory to have run have been beaten Only 6 of the past 31 winners had failed to win over 3m previously (but this includes the past 3, so it could be an evolving trend)

CHASING EXPERIENCE

19 of the 21 winners this century had run at least four times over fences prior to this race. Only Killyglen and Saphir du Rheu (the latter missed the Cheltenham Festival and had run over hurdles on his previous start on trials day, in the Cleeve) have been successful in this race, on the back of just 35

DAY TWO MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

game, who was 7½ lengths too good for Ahoy Senor, with the winner putting in the much better round of jumping. As already touched upon when looking at earlier races, Kempton form often stacks up at Aintree and this is another good example of that.

DAY TWO MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

three chase starts. During this period, 11 of the 19 winners had run five times or more, so experience can be a positive.

In terms of winning experience, 17 of the 21 winners this century had won at least twice over fences previously, with nine of them successful three or more times. However, no winner this century was unbeaten over fences.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

WE have only ever seen three Irish-trained winners of this race, which was first run in 1981. The first of those was Boss Doyle in 1998, although with Fairyhouse staging a Grade 1 over 2m4f the following week and Punchestown staging a Grade 1 over 3m at the end of the month, Irish novice chasers are well catered for on home soil. There was no Irish representation last year and serious challengers have been thin on the ground in recent years.

The last Irish-trained winner was Quito de la Roque (2011) and he carried the colours of Gigginstown House Stud, who (like in other races) seem happy to target Aintree. Given the amount of horses they have in training, splitting them up makes sense and they could consider this race for either Fury Road or Run Wild Fred. They finished first and second in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, a race in which Quito de la Roque had finished second in and Boss Doyle won it en route to Aintree.

AGE & BREEDING

WE haven’t seen a five-year-old run in this race in either of the past two renewals, but Terrefort was successful in 2018, becoming the third fiveyear-old winner in the past 15 renewals, following on from Star de Mohaison and Big Buck’s. Whilst it is difficult for horses of that age to compete off level-weights come the spring (rather like in the Arkle and Brown Advisory, since the removal of the age-allowance), the record in this race is actually quite good. All three were French-bred – meaning they were much likely further developed to compete at that age – and since 2006, only eight French-bred five-year-olds have taken their chance, so three winners is a strong return. Going back a little further, Banjo was another French-bred winning five-year-old, when successful in 1995.

Looking solely at age, only two of the past 32 winners – Barton and Like-A-Butterfly – were over the age of eight. And, 10 of the past 12 winners were aged six (4) or seven (6).

Looking solely at pedigrees, Barton is the last British-bred winner of this race. The 18 winners since were all either Irish-bred (11) or French-bred 36

(7). Interestingly, with Bravemansgame in mind, Paul Nicholls trained four of those French-bred winners and whilst it is a negative when assessing the Brown Advisory, it certainly doesn’t appear to be in the Mildmay.

MARKET FORCES

THIS really has been a relatively ‘punter-friendly’ contest this century, with only one of the 21 winners returning at double-figure odds, that being What’s Up Boys in 2001. Since then, the past 19 winners returned at odds of 13-2 or shorter, with a dozen of those winners returning at 3-1 or shorter. Seven outright favourites have won in those past 19 renewals (and one joint-favourite) and the past 20 winners all hailed from the top four in the betting.

It isn’t a race in which we have seen a shock for a long time, so focus on the top of the market.

GRADED FORM

THE past five winners had already recorded at least one win in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 company over fences. A further four winners between 2010 and 2013 also matched this particular trend, so pay healthy respect to winning form in Graded company from earlier in the campaign.

Interestingly, the 2018 and 2019 winners had contested Sandown’s Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase on their penultimate start, again suggesting that strong form over an intermediate trip (2m4f) from earlier in the campaign can be a positive. Going back much further, the aforementioned Banjo also won the Scilly Isles, a race which subsequent three-time Gold Cup winner Best Mate won in 2001. Although last year’s Scilly Isles’ 1-2 were eventually well-beaten in this race, it is a piece of form to take note of and this year’s race was won by the rapidly-improving L’Homme Presse.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

CHANTRY HOUSE provided Nicky Henderson with a fourth Mildmay win in the past 11 renewals and a sixth overall. Having first won the race with Sparkling Flame back in 1991, his second came in 2003 when Irish Hussar won under Mick Fitzgerald, at a time when the trainer still wasn’t prolific at Aintree. As the meeting has grown, Henderson has become more-and-more of a factor at this fixture and of those four recent wins, three have been achieved in the past four renewals. At the time of writing, Henderson doesn’t appear to have a leading contender for any of the Cheltenham novice chases, however, with his strength this season appearing to lie with the novice hurdlers.

Paul Nicholls has also trained four winners since

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

has won this race twice in the past five renewals, although rather like Nicky Henderson, he wouldn’t appear to have an obvious contender for Grade 1 honours this spring.

Between them, Messrs Henderson, Nicholls and Tizzard have won the past six renewals (with 9 of the past 18 having been trained by Henderson or Nicholls) and no other current trainer has won the Mildmay more than once.

BRAVEMANSGAME

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 1311

Chantry House

Age Weight 7

11-4

OR

SP

159

11/8F

Trainer

Runners

Last Race (No. of days)

N Henderson

7

1st Gr.1 Turners Novices’ Chase (22)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 23122

Lostintranslation

7

11-4

157

3/1

C Tizzard

6

2nd Gr.1 Turners Nov. Chase (22)

2018 13112

Terrefort

5

11-4

153

3/1F

N Henderson

9

2nd Gr.1 Turners Nov. Chase (29)

2017 21F11

Might Bite

8

11-4

161

8/13F

N Henderson

5

1st Gr.1 Brown Advisory Nov. Chase

2016 11332

Native River

6

11-4

149

11/2

C Tizzard

8

2nd Gr.2 National Hunt Chase (24)

2015 U1F12

Saphir du Rheu

6

11-4

163

13/8F

P Nicholls

9

2nd Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (29)

2014 2U111

Holywell

7

11-4

157

7/2

J O’Neill

6

1st Gr.3 Ultima Handicap Chase (24)

2013 1112

Dynaste

7

11-4

157

9/4JF

D Pipe

6

2nd Gr.2 Turners Nov. Chase (22)

2012 3124

Silviniaco Conti

6

11-4

154

7/4F

P Nicholls

5

4th Gr.2 Reynoldstown Chase (53)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Kauto Star Novices’ Chase 5 (Silviniaco Conti 2nd, Dynaste 1st, Saphir du Rheu fell, Native River 3rd, Might Bite fell) Turners Novices’ Chase 4 (Dynaste 2nd, Terrefort 2nd, Lostintranslation 2nd, Chantry House 1st) Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase 2 (Terrefort 1st, Lostintranslation 2nd)

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

37

DAY TWO MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

2006 and as already touched upon, all four were French-bred horses. Without a runner last year, Nicholls has only saddled two runners – Black Corton (4th) and Topofthegame (2nd) – since Saphir du Rheu gave him his fourth win in the race. The aforementioned Bravemansgame looks sure to be a leading player in this year’s renewal, with the chase track at Aintree likely to suit his running style.

Fellow West Country trainer Colin Tizzard

DAY TWO MELLING CHASE

MELLING CHASE

2m3f 200y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

ANOTHER race with a rich history and until the introduction of the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, the Melling Chase was the only championship contest at any of the three spring festivals over an intermediate trip. Over the years, it has brought together some fantastic clashes between two-milers and stayers, and for many a National Hunt purist, this is often the feature contest of the meeting in many ways. The brilliant performances of Moscow Flyer (twice) and Sprinter Sacre are etched into the memory, whilst the likes of Remittance Man, Deep Sensation, Master Minded, Finian’s Rainbow and Don Cossack all feature among an illustrious roll of honour. The other dual winners of the race are Viking Flagship, Direct Route, Native Upmanship and Voy Por Ustedes.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

WITH the exception of Fadalko in 2001 (when the Cheltenham Festival was lost due to Foot And Mouth), every single winner since 1999 had run at the Cheltenham Festival on their previous start and going all the way back to 1991 when the race was introduced, only two winners skipped the festival.

Therefore, this is another race in which Cheltenham form seems almost essential.

20 of the 30 winners contested the Queen Mother Champion Chase on their previous start, with seven of the past 10 winners matching this profile. Of those 20 winners, seven had been successful at Cheltenham and were completing a famous double. Prior to last year, the previous four winners had run in the Champion Chase, finishing between second and fifth. Interestingly, the only two Champion Chase winners to double up in this race in the past 15 years were both trained by Nicky Henderson, with Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre successful in back-to-back renewals. Whilst we never got to see Altior contest this race, could we see Shishkin step up in trip? An extra halfmile around Aintree would surely be ideal for the eight-year-old. Incidentally, Finian’s Rainbow and 38

Sprinter Sacre are the only two Champion Chase winners to run in this race, since Master Minded was beaten as a five-year-old in 2008.

The Ryanair Chase was only introduced in 2005, but it has had a big impact since the following year. Of the past 15 winners, eight ran in the Champion Chase and seven in the Ryanair, so rather like the Manifesto (with the Arkle and Turners) both the 2m and 2m4f respective races from Cheltenham need to be given equal respect. Albertas Run is the only horse to complete the Ryanair-Melling double, whilst another four finished in the first four at Cheltenham, including last year’s winner, who was 12 lengths second to Allaho in the Ryanair. At the time of going to print, Allaho was a warm order to retain his Ryanair crown and with no 2m4f chase at Punchestown, it could be that he is considered for the Melling this year. The track would certainly play to his strengths, as he likes to be ridden aggressively.

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

LAST year’s winner had finished runner-up in the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle two years earlier, making him the 23 rd winner of this race to have won or placed at the meeting previously.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

SECOND-SEASON CHASERS

SEVEN of the past nine winners were second-season chasers and God’s Own – who was officially in his third season over fences – was also in his first outside of novice company, with him having spent two years as a novice. Pay healthy respect to those who were contesting novice chases this time last year.

Five of the past nine winners had contested the previous year’s Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival, with Sprinter Sacre the only Arkle winner in recent years to win the Melling 13 months later. Finian’s Rainbow, God’s Own, Fox Norton and Fakir d’Oudairies all finished second or third in the Arkle the previous year, whilst the only other Arkle winner to be successful the following season was Remittance Man (also trained by Nicky Henderson) in 1992. More recently, Moscow Flyer and Voy Por Ustedes have both won this race twice having won an Arkle, but not in the very next season. Shishkin won last year’s Arkle, before supplementing that victory in the Maghull.

PROVEN CLASS

FOX NORTON is the only winner in the past 19 who had not previously won a Grade 1. Fadalko (2001) was the last before him, so focus on those with winning form in the book at the very top level. Fakir d’Oudairies had won his Grade 1 as a novice chaser, whereas 12 of the past 17 winners had won a Grade 1 earlier that season.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 23 of the 30 winners had won or placed at the meeting previously The past 15 winners contested either the QMCC (8) or Ryanair Chase (7) 20 of the 30 winners contested the QMCC last-time-out Both QMCC winners to have run in the past 12 years have won 14 of the past 15 winners were aged 7-9 12 of the past 17 winners had won a Grade 1 earlier that season 10 of the past 23 winners were trained in Ireland (from just 23% representation) 7 of the past 9 winners were second-season chasers The past 4 winners were French-bred Willie Mullins boasts a very good strike-rate Only 1 winner aged 6 Only 1 of the past 19 winners had not won a Grade 1 Only 2 of the 30 winners skipped the Cheltenham Festival

AGE

LAST year, Fakir d’Oudairies became the very first six-year-old winner of the Melling Chase. As stated in an earlier subsection, Master Minded was beaten in the race at five, before returning to win it as an eight-year-old, so it is clearly difficult for younger horses to land this prize. In truth, not as many horses go chasing at four now, so the numbers are relatively low, but it is worth considering all the same. Hitman would be a possible contender at six this year.

At the other end of the scale, we haven’t seen a double-digit winner since Moscow Flyer, with the 14 winners between him and Fakir d’Oudairies aged between seven and nine.

FRENCH-BRED WINNERS

WHILST he bucked the age trend, Fakir d’Oudairies continued the fine recent run of French-bred horses in this race. Had Vautour not fallen when a short-price in 2016, it could well have been fivein-a-row and this looks to be a significant recent trend. As highlighted in the chases over this sort of trip at Cheltenham (Turners Novices’ Chase and the Ryanair), the younger French-bred horses seem to boast a fine recent record at this sort of distance, so pay healthy respect to any who take their chance this year. This would again be another 39

DAY TWO MELLING CHASE

Boston Bob is the only winner in the past 14 to have not won or placed at Aintree previously and the four before that (going back to 1994) were all Irish-trained, too. Therefore, if looking at an English-trained runner, previous form at this fixture seems almost essential.

In recent seasons, second-season chasers (more of which shortly) have fared well in this race and five winners between 2012 and 2018 had contested the Maghull Novices’ Chase the previous season.

The 2m Grade 1 was won last year by Shishkin, and both Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre had won that race for Nicky Henderson 12 months before winning the Melling.

Two of the past 11 winners had run in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase the previous year, before dropping back in trip, most recently Don Cossack who finished runner-up in that event 12 months before winning the Melling.

Respect form at this meeting previously and with five dual winners of the race since 1995-1996 (all won back-to-back renewals, incidentally), this includes last year’s winner Fakir d’Oudairies.

DAY TWO MELLING CHASE

positive for Allaho, should Willie Mullins consider sending him over.

OTHER KEY RACES

THREE of the past 11 winners had won the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown earlier in the season, a race which was won this season by the Paul Nicholls-trained Greaneteen, who was 5½ lengths too good for stable-mate Hitman.

Ascot’s Clarence House Chase has also thrown up three winners in the past 11, with Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre successful, whilst Finian’s Rainbow finished runner-up, before he won the Champion Chase. This year’s race saw Shishkin defeat the hitherto unbeaten chaser Energumene by a length, in what was a fantastic contest. At the time of writing, the pair are on course to clash again in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Both Finian’s Rainbow and Politologue won the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas and that is another contest which was won in impressive fashion by Shishkin.

It is noticeable that the races highlighted above are all staged over the minimum trip, so clearly high-class form over 2m is a positive when assessing the chances of a horse in the Melling (again, highlighting the need for speed at Aintree). The Game Spirit Chase is also worth noting, with two runners-up from Newbury going one better at Aintree, two starts later.

period. Allaho went on to confirm the form over Fakir d’Oudairies when beating him by 12 lengths in the Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles.

Formerly known as the Kinloch Brae, the Grade 2 was also won by Don Cossack ahead of his victory in 2015, whilst Native Upmanship won the race in successive seasons, before his back-to-back wins in this event (2002 & 2003). Hi Cloy was another winner this century to have contested the Kinloch Brae earlier in the year.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

BOTH Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have trained three winners apiece of this race. Henderson’s first winner came way back in 1992 with Remittance Man, before Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre provided him with successive wins in 2012 and 2013, respectively. All three were in their second season over fences and arrived at Aintree on the back of having won the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES became the 10 th Irish-trained winner in the past 23 renewals and the fourth in the past seven. And, it should be added that they have done this from just 23% of runners (40/172) during those past 23 renewals. Opera Hat was the first Irish-trained winner, back in 1998, and the recent run was started with Boston Bob winning for Willie Mullins in 2014. Mullins struck again in 2019 with Min who was only narrowly denied 12 months earlier. In total, Mullins has saddled only five runners during this period (another being the aforementioned faller Vautour) so boasts a 40% strike-rate in the race. Without a runner last year, he will have plenty of options for the race this time around.

Both Min and Don Cossack (another of the recent Irish-trained winners) had won the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown, a race won this season by Allaho, who had last year’s Melling winner Fakir d’Oudairies back in fourth and the King George winner (Tornado Flyer) back in fifth. That looked a strong race on paper and Envoi Allen (6th) also franked the form over the Festive 40

NICKY HENDERSON

Fadalko provided Paul Nicholls with his first win in the race (2001) and he has since added to his tally courtesy of Master Minded (2011) and Politologue. Nicholls was responsible for three of last year’s seven runners, although none of the trio made an impact.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY TWO MELLING CHASE SHISHKIN BEATS ENERGUMENE IN THE CLARENCE HOUSE

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 2P22

Fakir d’Oudairies

Age Weight 6

OR

SP

11-7

162

2/1F

Trainer

Runners

J O’Brien (IRE)

7

Last Race (No. of days) 2nd Gr.1 Ryanair Chase Chase (22)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 115

MIn

8

11-7

167

2/1F

W Mullins (IRE)

6

5th Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2018 11124

Politologue

7

11-7

161

11/1

P Nicholls

6

4th Gr.1 Champion Chase (30)

2017 1122

Fox Norton

7

11-7

166

4/1

C Tizzard

9

2nd Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2016 324

God’s Own

8

11-10

162

10/1

T George

6

4th Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2015 11113

Don Cossack

8

11-10

166

3/1JF

G Elliott (IRE)

10

3rd Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (29)

2014 166

Boston Bob

9

11-10

154

5/1

W Mullins (IRE)

10

6th Gr.1 Ryanair Chase (22)

2013 111

Sprinter Sacre

7

11-10

188

1/3F

N Henderson

6

1st Gr.1 Champion Chase (23)

2012 121

Finian’s Rainbow

9

11-10

173

13/8F

N Henderson

8

1st Gr.1 Champion Chase (30)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Queen Mother Champion Chase 5 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Sprinter Sacre 1st, God’s Own 4th, Fox Norton 2nd, Min 5th) *Maghull Novices’ Chase 5 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Sprinter Sacre 1st, God’s Own 2nd, Fox Norton 3rd, Politiologue fell) *Arkle Trophy 5 (Finian’s Rainbow 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 1st, God’s Own 2nd, Fox Norton 3rd, Fakir d’Oudairies 2nd) Ryanair Chase 3 (Boston Bob 6th, Don Cossack 3rd, Fakir d’Oudairies 2nd) Clarence House Chase 2 (Finian’s Rainbow 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 1st) Tingle Creek Chase 2 (Sprinter Sacre 1st, Politiologue 1st) Haldon Gold Cup 2 (God’s Own 3rd, Politiologue 1st) John Durkan Chase 2 (Don Cossack 1st, Min 1st) Desert Orchird Chase 2 (Finian’s Rainbow 1st, Politologue 1st) Game Spirit Chase 2 (Fox Norton 2nd, Politologue 2nd) * denotes previous season

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

41

DAY TWO SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

3m 149y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

A RACE which, despite the nature of the track at Aintree, still requires a horse with bags of stamina (although not necessarily having proven it to this point) and perhaps, that is why this is one of the races in which arriving fresh can be viewed upon as a positive. Given the results this century, it certainly isn’t a negative and experience normally counts, although Ahoy Senor bucked that trend last year, winning this race on just his second start over hurdles. Winners since 2003 include the likes of Iris’s Gift, Black Jack Ketchum and this is the race in which Thistlecrack announced himself as a future star over 3m. More recently, Champ won the 2019 renewal, whilst early winners of the race included Rustle and Barton Bank.

THE FRESH ANGLE

PRIOR to last year, the three previous winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival, but this is very much a race when you should take those who skipped that meeting seriously. Perhaps it is due to the fact that it can be a thorough test for a novice hurdler, which often comes at the end of a long season; certainly Bravemansgame appeared to look a little laboured late on last year, when trying to reel in the front-running Ahoy Senor, who most certainly was ‘fresh’ having run in a bumper in January and a maiden hurdle on 1 st March. He was actually due to run in a novice hurdle under a penalty at Hexham on 31 st March (non-runner due to unsuitable ground) so might not have even turned up here, had conditions been suitable in Northumberland. ‘Things happen for a reason’ they say and Ahoy Senor became the 12 th winner since the turn of the century to have avoided the Cheltenham Festival. Whilst nine winners during this period had run at Cheltenham (proving it can be done), it is certainly something to consider, with the staying races likely to have taken more out of a horse, just three weeks earlier. There is exactly 21 days between the Albert Bartlett and this race.

42

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

OF those winners who had been in action at Cheltenham the previous month, since its inception, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (as you would expect) has been the key pointer to the Sefton.

Run over a similar trip, six winners since 2006 have come out of the Albert Bartlett, with only Black Jack Ketchum and At Fishers Cross completing the double. Seven Albert Bartlett winners have run in the Sefton and the other five were beaten, which is something else to take on board. Last year’s winner didn’t line up, but Oscar Elite finished 15 lengths third in the Sefton, on the back of his second to Vanillier on Gold Cup day. Pay healthy respect to those who ran well in the Albert Bartlett, although be a shade more cautious should the winner attempt the spring festival double.

2019 winner Champ finished runner-up in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on his previous start and he became the first winner to graduate from that race, since the introduction of the Albert Bartlett. Clearly the staying types have a more suitable option at Cheltenham now and it is fair to say that the Ballymore is usually a classier event. Horses from that contest will invariably run in the Mersey

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

OTHER KEY RACES

FIVE winners this century had contested Haydock’s Prestige Novices’ Hurdle in February (staged shortly after the Guide goes to print), although The Worlds End is the only one in the past 10 renewals.

He was successful on Merseyside, as were Iris’s Gift and Chief Dan George, whilst the other pair finished fourth and second, respectively.

Both At Fishers Cross and Santini won the Classic Novices’ Hurdle (over 2m4½f) at Cheltenham on trials day, a race which was also contested by Thistlecrack. Being on the New course, this is often a good test of stamina and with three winners coming out of that race in the past eight years, it is certainly a piece of form to take seriously. This year’s race was won by North Lodge, who had earlier made a winning racecourse debut at this track in early-December.

Going back a little further, both Ogee and Beat That finished placed in the Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown in December, a race won this season by Lossiemouth, who then disappointed in the Grade 1 Challow over Christmas. Brave Kingdom was sent off favourite for the race, but was beaten 20 lengths, before bouncing back at Taunton in late-December.

BRED FOR THE JOB

BRITISH-BRED horses have a good record in the Sefton, with four winners in the 10 years between 2009 and 2018, and all from just 23% representation. Both Iris’s Gift and Accipiter were another pair of British-bred winners this century and such horses often appear to flourish when handed a proper test of stamina. Two horses carried the (GB) suffix last year, with Midnight River in the process of running a big race, when falling three out.

NATIONAL HUNT BACKGROUND

THE past nine winners had a traditional National Hunt background, in that they started off their

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 17 of the 21 winners this century had won at least twice over hurdles 15 of the past 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 12 of the 21 winners this century had skipped the Cheltenham Festival 12 of the 21 winners this century had run 5 times or more over hurdles The past 9 winners ran in a P2P or Bumper (8 were successful) 6 of the past 15 winners contested the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham 6 of the past 18 winners were British-bred (from relatively small representation) 8 of the past 20 winners were secondseason novices 4 of the past 5 winners ran in a P2P (3 were successful) Nicky Henderson has trained 3 of the past 7 winners The 3 Irish-trained winners all skipped Cheltenham Only 1 winner this century ran in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham Only 1 of the past 16 winners was aged 5 Only 1 of the past 7 winners had won over 2m7f+ over hurdles Only 2 Albert Bartlett winners have won from 7 who have tried Only 3 Irish-trained winners and 2 in the past 31 years Irish-trained horses are 0-23 during the past 15 years Paul Nicholls is 0-8 in the past 10 renewals careers in either Point-to-Points or bumpers, with eight of them successful in either sphere. The only ‘non-winner’ of the nine was Beat That, who finished runner-up in a Kempton bumper on debut (sent off odds-on) and then ran well at the Punchestown Festival. Perhaps more significantly, four of the past five winners (maybe a sign of things to come) came from the Point-to-Point fields, with three successful and The Worlds End was an unlucky late-faller.

Interestingly, both Santini and Ahoy Senor had won an English Point-to-Point. Plenty is made of the top-class performers that are found between the flags in Ireland, but this pair – along with the likes of Energumene – have shown that stars can now be found in Points on this side of the Irish Sea, albeit (admittedly) on a less regular basis.

43

DAY TWO SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

Novices’ Hurdle at this fixture, but Champ showed that the step can be taken, whilst the last horse before that to win from the Ballymore was King’s Road in 1999. During the first 12 years of the Sefton (1988 – 1999), five horses emerged from the Ballymore to win this contest, starting with the very first winner Rustle. More recently, Massini’s Maguire attempted to supplement his Ballymore success and was beaten, as was subsequent dual Champion Hurdle winner Hardy Eustace, and Karabak, who had run well in the 2009 Ballymore. Bravemansgame suffered a similar fate last year, beaten at short odds on the back of his third behind Bob Olinger at Cheltenham.

DAY TWO SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE

EXPERIENCE

all ex-Pointers are stayers, of course, but many are.

ALTHOUGH he ran just once the season before, Champ was officially a second-season novice when winning the 2019 renewal. Going back to the early part of the century (2001 & 2002), both Garruth and Stromness won this race in their second season over hurdles, whilst Chief Dan George, Ogee and At Fishers Cross all had a similar profile. Overall, six winners since 2001 were second-season novices and the sextet had run between six and 18 times previously over hurdles.

A further six winners this century had run five times or more over hurdles, so experience can be viewed upon as a positive. Clearly Ahoy Senor laughed at this trend, winning the race on just his second start over hurdles and given the fairly dry autumn we had, I wonder if this will once again have an impact on both this race and the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham (in that several contenders might have started their season later than was originally intended).

In terms of winning experience, 17 of the 21 winners this century had won at least twice over hurdles, with eight of them being successful at least four times previously.

ONLY three Irish-trained horses have ever won the Sefton and only two in the past 31 renewals. That most recent pairing were Sackville (2000) and Asian Maze (2005), so there have been 15 renewals without Irish success. Many a leading Irish staying novice will be saved for the Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival, but Streets Of Doyen was another ‘loser’ for the Irish last year, when finishing only fourth. Willie Mullins (who doesn’t usually target the race) run four in the 2016 renewal – including favourite Bellshill, who finished second – and during those past 15 renewals, the record of Irishtrained horses stands at 0-23.

It is also worth noting that the three Irish-trained winners of this race all missed the Cheltenham Festival, so perhaps had this as their main spring target, rather than it being an afterthought. That said, Asian Maze did win at Fairyhouse less than a fortnight before winning the 2005 Sefton, but it still noteworthy, nevertheless. Perhaps not being asked to travel to England, twice in a short space of time, is a positive in this regard.

AGE

TRAINERS TO NOTE

SAINT ARE (2011) was the last successful five-yearold and the fourth overall. Whilst the record of such horses isn’t as bad as it is in the Albert Bartlett, it is still a huge ask for such a young horse to win a Grade 1 over 3m. There were no five-year-olds in the field last year, although both Emitom (2019) and Tower Bridge (2018) hit the frame for that age group in the two previous renewals. Saint Are is the only winning five-year-old in the past 16 renewals and he is also the last winning French-bred.

The other 15 winners during those past 16 renewals were aged either six (10) or seven (5).

Two nine-year-olds were successful, but the last one was Unsinkable Boxer in 1998, whilst Pleasure Shared was successful at eight. Overall, all bar seven winners of the race were aged six or seven.

STAMINA

INTERESTINGLY, only one of the past seven winners – that being The Worlds End – had won over 2m7f+ over hurdles earlier in the season.

Clearly having proven stamina is no negative, but this goes to show that not having won over 3m isn’t a barrier to success in the Sefton. The past two winners were stepping up from 2m4f – 2m5f on their previous start, although the Point-to-Point background of several recent winners would have also offered hope about them staying the trip. Not 44

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

NICKY Henderson won the very first running of this race with subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle winner Rustle and he has won three of the past seven renewals, with Beat That, Santini and Champ. Gallyhill was pulled-up for the Seven Barrows team in last year’s renewal, but the stable’s recent record in the race is very good.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled three winners of the Sefton since 1999 and although his runner last year (Topofthecotswolds) also failed to complete, his runners also warrant plenty of respect. His two more recent winners Pettifour and Ballyoptic were two-from-two over hurdles and had enjoyed a relatively low-key preparation for this Grade 1 assignment.

Lucinda Russell won her first Sefton last year with Ahoy Senor, but her last runner in the race before him was One For Arthur in 2015, so it seems to be a race that she likes to consider in the spring for her brighter young prospects.

Paul Nicholls has yet to win this race and was responsible for last year’s beaten favourite, Bravemansgame. Nicholls has had eight runners in the past 10 renewals, with four of them being sent off at single-figure odds. Just A Par also finished runner-up for the stable in 2013, but to date, it is a race that Nicholls has yet to conquer.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY TWO SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE LAST YEAR’S WINNER AHOY SENOR COULD RETURN TO AINTREE FOR THE MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 21

Ahoy Senor

Age Weight 6

11-4

OR

SP

-

66/1

Trainer L Russell

Runners

Last Race (No. of days)

12

1st Ayr Maiden Hurdle (39)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 11112

Champ

7

11-4

152

9/4F

N Henderson

12

2nd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (23)

2018 113

Santini

6

11-4

150

6/4F

N Henderson

13

3rd Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (28)

2017 3111F

The Worlds End

6

11-4

149

3/1

T George

11

fell Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (21)

2016 511

Ballyoptic

6

11-4

138

9/1

N Twiston-Davies

15

1st Uttoxeter Nov. Hurdle (20)

2015 51715

Thistlecrack

7

11-4

135

25/1

C Tizzard

16

5th Gr.3 Imperial Cup (34)

2014 12

Beat That

6

11-4

142

6/1

N Henderson

18

2nd Gr.2 Sandown Nov. Hurdle (139)

2013 11111

At Fishers Cross

6

11-4

152

11/8F

R Curtis

9

1st Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (21)

2012 41F14

Lovcen

7

11-4

142

8/1

A King

19

4th Gr.1 Albert Bartlett Nov. Hurdle (28)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 4 (Lovcen 4th, At Fishers Cross 1st, The Worlds End fell, Santini 3rd) Classic Novices’ Hurdle 3 (At Fishers Cross 1st, Thistlecrack 7th, Santini 1st)

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

45

DAY THREE MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE

MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE 2m4f (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

A NOVICES’ hurdle with a roll of honour which includes three-time Gold Cup winner Best Mate, the Mersey was handed Grade 1 status in 2014 and the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle from Cheltenham is often the best guide. Last year’s race was won by My Drogo, who recorded an impressive 9½-length victory for Dan and Harry Skelton. Four of the past 10 winners were stepping up in distance, from 2m or thereabouts on their previous start.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

BETWEEN 1999 and 2018, 9 of the 20 winners had contested the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on their previous start and the past four Ballymore winners to come on to Aintree, have supplemented their festival success in this very race. The last horse to complete the double was Yorkhill, with Peddlers Cross and Simonsig also repeating that feat since 2010. Barton did the double in ’99 and a further four of those nine winners finished in the first four of the Ballymore, including the most recent, Black Op, who had finished runner-up at Cheltenham.

Between 2000 and 2011, four winners stepped up in trip having contested the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on their previous start. Most recently Spirit Son won impressively having finished runner-up in the festival opener, matching the profile of Best Mate, who also finished second in the Supreme.

As highlighted when previewing the Top Novices’ Hurdle (day two), horses who filled the runners-up spot in the Supreme have a fantastic record of going one better at Aintree, with eight of the past 10 being successful at this fixture. Ballyadam let that trend down in this race last year, but it remains highly significant.

Lac Fontana had won the County Hurdle on his previous start, whilst the past two winners of this race have shown that going to Cheltenham 48

isn’t essential. Reserve Tank beat Brewin’upastorm, who had run well in the Ballymore, whilst My Drogo arrived at Aintree on the back of a victory in the Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 over 2m2f.

Overall, 14 of the past 22 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival, with 11 of them finishing in the first four. With three of the past four winners – the other being Finian’s Oscar (who missed Cheltenham through injury) – avoiding the festival, is this strong statistic under threat somewhat?

STEPPING UP IN DISTANCE

AS touched upon in the Overview, the four horses to have run in the Supreme were obviously stepping up in trip, as was Lac Fontana who had won the County. More recently, both Finian’s Oscar – who had won over 2m1f at Exeter on his previous start – and My Drogo were also stepping up in distance, although Finian’s Oscar had won a novice hurdle at Hereford over 2m5½f before dropping back to win twice over shorter. Respect strong form over shorter distances, remembering that Peddlers Cross won the 2m Rossington Main before stepping up to land the Ballymore, whilst Nichols Canyon was twice a Grade 1 winner over shorter earlier in the season.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

MARKET FORCES

MY DROGO justified strong market support and favouritism last year, and became the seventh winning outright favourite in the past 11 renewals.

A further two – Spirit Son and Black Op – returned the 3-1 second-favourite, so pay healthy respect to the top-end of the market. Ubak and Reserve Tank have caused upsets during this period, scoring at 22-1 and 20-1 respectively, but in general, this race is dominated by those towards the head of the betting.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

DESPITE missing Cheltenham, My Drogo was top-rated with an official BHA mark of 150 ahead of last year’s race and in the past 11 renewals, nine of the winners were in the top two on official BHA Ratings. Five of those were clear top-rated, whilst during the past 10 renewals, only seven horses rated 150 or higher have contested the Mersey and four have been successful.

EXPERIENCE

EARLIER this century, ex-Flat performers Montalcino and Bouggler won this race (when it was a Grade 2) on just their second start over hurdles, but in general, a little more experience is required.

Of the past 11 winners, only four had run less than four times over hurdles and interestingly, all four were unbeaten in three starts over hurdles. Those were Peddlers Cross, Yorkhill, Finian’s Oscar and My Drogo and all had already won at least one Grade 1 or Grade 2. Overall, eight of the past 11 winners had already recorded three wins over hurdles.

Looking at the past six winners, four had

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY THREE MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE

OTHER KEY RACES

THAT brings me on nicely to a couple of notable races from earlier in the campaign, with both Spirit Son and Finian’s Oscar successful in the Listed Bet At racingtv.com Novices’ Hurdle, a 2m1f event staged at Exeter in early-February. This year’s race was won by Lac de Constance.

Prior to Exeter, Finian’s Oscar had won the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown, again over 2m. Often staged in deep ground, it can be a test of stamina at the trip and Yorkhill also won the Tolworth ahead of his victory in the Ballymore.

This year’s race was won in impressive fashion

by Constitution Hill, who at the time of writing, looks on course to take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Going back even further, both Best Mate and Garde Champetre finished runner-up in the Tolworth, before winning the Mersey three months later.

KEY TRENDS Ballymore winners are 4-4 since 1999 9 of the past 11 winners were top- or second-top on official BHA Ratings 22 of the past 25 winners were aged 5 or 6 14 of the past 22 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (11 of them finished in the first 4) 9 of the 21 winners this century were stepping up in trip 8 of the past 11 winners had won 3 times over hurdles 7 of the past 11 favourites have won 4 of the past 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles (3-3) 4 of the past 6 winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Horses rated 150+ are 4-7 since 2011 Respect Graded novice hurdle form over 2m-2m2f Respect Point-to-Point and bumper form Respect mares for place purposes Only 1 of the past 25 winners was aged 4 Only 2 of the past 32 winners were aged 7 Only 2 of the past 11 winners returned greater than 9-2 Front-runners tend to struggle recorded at least one win in Graded company (three had won twice), whilst Black Op was placed in two Graded novice hurdles.

NATIONAL HUNT BACKGROUND

WE have seen several ex-Flat winners of the Mersey during this century – the last pair being Lac Fontana and Nichols Canyon – but the past five winners had a more traditional National Hunt background, with four of them having contested a maiden Point-to-Point and/or a bumper at the start of their careers. Going back a little further, both Peddlers Cross and Simonsig had won under both codes and I suspect that this is something that might continue to grow in the coming years, as it has in the novice hurdles at Cheltenham.

AGE

THERE were three successive winning four-yearolds between 1993 and 1995, but since then, only one of the past 25 winners – that being Bouggler – struck for that age group. During those past 25 years, 22 of the winners were aged five (13) or six 49

DAY THREE MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE

(9), with only Elusive Dream (2008) and Black Op successful seven-year-olds. They are the only two ‘older’ winners in the past 32 renewals.

MARES

THERE haven’t been any mares in the field in either of the past two renewals, but during the past 13 renewals, four mares have hit the frame from just six who have taken their chance. Therefore, although none have won during this period, they should be respected in the place market, with the 7lbs allowance (now it is a Grade 1) quite significant.

TACTICS

WE did see a couple of fairly recent winners of this race ridden a shade more prominently than is often the case, but My Drogo reverted to type last year, coming from off the pace to win. As I have already alluded to (when previewing earlier races), the hurdles track suits those who are ridden patiently and it is difficult for a front-runner to make all.

in 2015 and 2016, although it is possibly significant that both carried the beige and black silks and Andrea and Graham Wylie, who also won the race in 2007 with Tidal Bay. From the North East of England, Aintree was probably very much on their radar, but sadly, they no longer have horses in training. It, therefore, remains to be seen if this will be a target for Mullins (not had a runner since), with Punchestown also staging a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m4f.

Finally, Nicky Henderson won the 2011 and 2012 renewals, with Spirit Son and Simonsig. The former carried the white silks and black cap of owner Michael Buckley, who has also enjoyed Aintree success with Finian’s Rainbow, Beat That and Minella Forfitness in recent years, and it could be that his Tolworth Hurdle winner Constitution Hill is aimed at this race. Currently favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, he looks as though he would have little trouble in getting an extra halfmile (especially around a track like Aintree).

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

TRAINER Paul Nicholls won the Mersey on four occasions between 2004 and 2014, and he has actually only had four runners since, with Le Prezien doing best of those, when second behind Yorkhill in 2016.

Nicholls’ former assistant Dan Skelton won the race for the first time last year, but his three earlier runners in the Mersey were all placed, leaving him with impressive form figures in the race of 3231.

Colin Tizzard saddled two of the past four winners (both avoided Cheltenham) and his runner last year was the 80-1 shot Striking A Pose.

Willie Mullins won back-to-back renewals

CONSTITUTION HILL

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 2111

My Drogo

Age Weight 6

OR

SP

11-4

150

5/4F

Trainer D Skelton

Runners

Last Race (No. of days)

12

1st Gr.2 Kelso Nov. Hurdle (35)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 3711

Reserve Tank

5

11-4

139

20/1

C Tizzard

9

1st Kempton Nov. Hurdle (21)

2018 4122

Black Op

7

11-4

152

3/1

T George

12

2nd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (31)

2017 111

Finian’s Oscar

5

11-4

149

3/1F

C Tizzard

13

1st Listed Exeter Nov. Hurdle (55)

2016 1111

Yorkhill

6

11-4

156 30/100F W Mullins (IRE)

6

1st Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (24)

2015 11U13

Nichols Canyon

5

11-4

149

3/1F

W Mullins (IRE)

12

3rd Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (31)

2014 1411

Lac Fontana

5

11-4

148

9/2F

P Nicholls

12

1st Gr.3 County Hurdle (22)

2013 2347

Ubak

5

11-4

130

22/1

G Moore

8

7th Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (23)

2012 11211

Simonsig

6

11-4

157

4/9F

N Henderson

10

1st Gr.1 Ballymore Nov. Hurdle (30)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 4 (Simonsig 1st, Ubak 7th, Nichols Canyon 3rd, Yorkhill 1st, Black Op 2nd) Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Yorkhill 1st, Finian’s Oscar 1st)

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Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

51

DAY THREE MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE

MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE

1m7f 176y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

ANOTHER novice race with an illustrious roll of honour. Since it was handed Grade 1 status in 1995, the likes of Ask Tom, Direct Route, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief, Twist Magic, Tidal Bay, Finian’s Rainbow, Sprinter Sacre, Special Tiara, Douvan and Shishkin have been successful in the Maghull and as you might expect, the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival is often the best guide to this race.

Going back to 2008, the past four Arkle winners to have run in the race have won and this includes last year’s winner, who won at prohibitive odds.

ARKLE TROPHY

AS stated in the Overview, the past four winners of the Arkle to contest the Maghull have been successful, with this run started by Tidal Bay in 2008. Since then, only Sprinter Sacre, Douvan and Shishkin have attempted (and completed) the double, with all three stamping their authority on the division and returning at ridiculously short odds. Between 1999 and 2006, two Arkle winners from four successfully completed the Cheltenham-Aintree double, so that is 6-8 during the past 22 renewals (and, of course, in 2001 there was no Arkle).

Between 1993 and 2009, every winner of the Maghull – with the exception of 2001 (the year of Foot And Mouth) – had run in the Arkle Trophy on their previous start. Five of those winners had finished second or third, whilst a further four bounced back from a fall at Cheltenham, something that Ornua would repeat in 2019. Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre (2011 and 2012) were back-to-back winners to have contested the Arkle, but since then, only three of the past eight winners had run in the Arkle on the opening day of the festival. It remains the obvious starting point when assessing this race, however.

52

OTHER KEY RACES

ORNUA and Balder Succes were both beaten in the first Grade 1 novice chase of the season, Sandown’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, a race won this season

by Edwardstone, who represents the same stable as Balder Succes. He ran out a 16-length winner and followed-up, under a penalty, in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Both Sprinter Sacre and Shishkin won the Wayward Lad ahead of their Arkle-Maghull doubles.

EDWARDSTONE

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

CHASING EXPERIENCE

RECENT winners San Benedeto and Ornua were extremely experienced, having had eight and 10 starts over fences, respectively, whilst Balder Succes had run six times. Interestingly, those three most recent Arkle winners to follow up in this race, were all unbeaten in four starts prior to the Maghull and only twice in the past 13 years had the winner had just the three previous chase starts.

In terms of winning form, only two of those past 13 winners had won just once previously over fences, whilst 10 of them had won three times or more.

CURRENT FORM

SHISHKIN became the ninth last-time-out winner to be successful in the past 21 renewals, whilst of the past 24 winners, only Special Tiara failed to finish in the first three, of those that completed. Five winners of this race during this period fell on their previous start (four in the Arkle), but if completing the course, look for a horse who won or run well last-time-out.

FLAT TRACK FORM

HAVING touched upon races from both Kempton and Warwick, it is clear that earlier form on a flat track is also a positive. Doncaster’s Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase – a race which was contested by both Tidal Bay and Shishkin – would be another example, so pay healthy respect to those with form at such venues. It is slightly interesting that previous Aintree form isn’t too prominent among recent winners, although the aforementioned Edwardstone – who looks sure to be a leading candidate for this race – won a novice hurdle at the track and finished third in the valuable 2m4f handicap hurdle (off 149) at this fixture last year.

BREEDING

THREE of last year’s five runners were French-bred and although the trio couldn’t add to the recent tally, the record of such horses in this race is fairly strong. This century, no fewer than 11 of the 21 winners were French-bred and this includes eight of the past 14 winners. Earlier this century, we also saw a couple of German-bred winners.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY THREE MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE

Three of the past 10 winners contested Warwick’s Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase in February – with Finian’s Rainbow and Balder Succes completing the double – whilst a further four Maghull winners between 1997 and 2002 ran in the Kingmaker, with three successful. Edwardstone also won the Kingmaker and at the time of writing, heads the betting for the Arkle.

KEY TRENDS Arkle winners are 4-4 since 2008 Henry de Bromhead is 3-6 since 2013 21 of the past 27 winners (excluding 2001) ran in the Arkle 14 of the past 24 winners returned at 3-1 or shorter 11 of the past 14 winners had run 8 times or less over hurdles 10 of the past 13 winners had won 3+ times over fences 9 of the past 21 winners won last-time-out 8 of the past 14 winners were French-bred 7 of the past 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick 7 of the past 11 winners were aged 6 3 of the past 10 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson Paul Nicholls has trained 7 winners since 1999 The past 13 winners were aged between 6-8 Respect flat track form Only 1 of the past 24 winners finished unplaced (when completing) last-time-out Only 2 of the past 13 winners had run just 3 times over fences Only 2 of the past 13 winners had won just once over fences Only 1 of the past 24 winners returned at odds greater than 6-1 No 5yo winner since the age allowance was removed No 9yo winner since 1973

AGE

BETWEEN 1999 and 2007, five five-year-olds won this race, with four of them trained by Paul Nicholls. Flagship Uberalles started the trend and Twist Magic ended the run. The following year, the age-allowance was removed and we have actually only seen six five-year-olds take their chance since. Only once in the past 11 renewals has that age group been represented (2015) and we see fewer horses sent chasing a four (turning five) nowadays, for this very reason.

At the other end of the scale, the last nine-yearold winner (such horses in novice chases are few and far between) was Line Regiment in 1973. The past 13 winners were aged between six and eight, with seven six-year-olds successful in the past 11 renewals.

53

DAY THREE MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE

MARKET FORCES

AS already touched upon in an earlier subsection, the three recent Arkle winners to win the Maghull were sent off at very short odds and wouldn’t have been a betting proposition for most. Since 2004, seven outright favourites have been successful, whilst going all the way back to 1997, all bar one of the 24 winners returned at 6-1 or shorter. 14 of them returned at 3-1 or shorter, so it really is a race were class comes to the fore and the front of the market tends to dominate. The one ‘shock’ winner was Special Tiara, who returned at 28-1 nine years ago.

LIGHTLY-RACED HURDLERS

OF the past 14 winners, 11 had run no more than eight times over hurdles, with six (including last year’s winner) having run no more than four times over the smaller obstacles. As highlighted when previewing the earlier novice chase races (at both Cheltenham and Aintree), being sent chasing sooner rather than later is usually a huge plus.

Both Douvan and Shishkin had won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham 13 months earlier, so high-class novice hurdle form from the previous season is another positive.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

SHISHKIN provided Nicky Henderson with a third win in the race in the past 10 renewals, although as he was without an entry in the Arkle (at initial entry stage), it seems highly unlikely that he will have a

leading contender for this year’s race.

With seven wins on the board, Paul Nicholls is without doubt the leading trainer in this event.

However, he was also without an Arkle entry, so it also remains to be seen as to whether or not he will be represented this time around. He has been without a runner in each of the past two renewals, but since 1999 boasts a staggering record, having had a further seven horses finish second, and all from 23 runners. Despite not being handed an Arkle entry, Il Ridoto is one horse who might be considered for this race, although he will need to buck that recent five-year-old trend, if he is to provide Nicholls with an eighth win in the race. The Red Rum Handicap Chase might also be considered for him.

Henry de Bromhead is another trainer who boasts a fantastic recent record in this race, with his three winners coming since 2013. Without a runner last year, he has saddled just six horses in the Maghull in recent years and Petit Mouchoir also finished second for his stable. He is one of the few Irish trainers who likes to target Aintree (also won the Red Rum in 2019 with Moon Over Germany) and any runner from his stable deserves plenty of respect. Couer Sublime and Magic Daze are the stable’s Arkle entries this year and either would be of interest here. The former was a high-class hurdler, who won on his third start over fences, whilst the front-running mare Magic Daze would likely be well-suited to this track.

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 1111

Shishkin

Age Weight 7

11-4

OR

SP

169

1/8F

Trainer N Henderson

Runners

Last Race (No. of days)

5

1st Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)

H De Bromhead (IRE) 7

fell Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 2122F

Ornua

8

11-4

151

3/1JF

2018 132F

Diego du Charmil

6

11-4

143

5/1

P Nicholls

6

fell Ascot Nov. Chase (20)

2017 U3111

San Benedeto

6

11-4

150

4/1

P Nicholls

5

1st Ascot Nov. Chase (6)

W Mullins (IRE)

5

1st Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (25)

2016 11111

Douvan

6

11-4

161

2/13F

2015 91U11

Sizing Granite

7

11-4

145

9/2

H De Bromhead (IRE) 6

1st Leopardstown Nov. Chase (42)

2014 F1511

Balder Succes

6

11-4

153

7/2

A King

1st Gr.2 Pendil Nov. Chase (42)

2013 21125

Special Tiara

6

11-4

124

28/1

H De Bromhead (IRE) 6

5th Leopardstown Nov. Chase (34)

2012 1111

Sprinter Sacre

6

11-4

169

1/7F

N Henderson

1st Gr.1 Arkle Trophy (32)

7 4

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES * Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2 (Douvan 1st, Shishkin 1st) Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase 2 (Sprinter Sacre 1st, Shishkin 1st) Arkle Trophy 4 (Sprinter Sacre 1st, Douvan 1st, Ornua fell, Shishkin 1st) Kingmaker Novices’ Chase 2 (Balder Succes 1st, Diego du Charmil 2nd) Ascot Novices’ Handicap Chase 2 (San Benedeto 1st, Diego du Charmil fell) Henry VIII Novices’ Chase 2 (Balder Succes unpl., Ornua 2nd) * denotes previous season

54

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

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DAY THREE STAYERS HURDLE

RYANAIR STAYERS HURDLE (THE LIVERPOOL HURDLE) 3m 149y (Grade 1) OVERVIEW

PREVIOUSLY staged at Ascot, the Liverpool Hurdle was switched to Aintree in 2004 and handed Grade 1 status in 2010. Originally the opening race of the three-day meeting, when the first running was won by Iris’s Gift who completed the Cheltenham-Aintree double. Big Buck’s did the same (four times) between 2009 and 2012, whilst last year’s winner Thyme Hill was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury, but made it back in time to win by just a neck. It was a timely Grade 1 victory for jockey Tom O’Brien, who had just taken over from the recently-retired Richard Johnson, as stable number one to Philip Hobbs.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

SINCE the race moved to Aintree, all bar three of the winners had been in action at Cheltenham the previous month. The past two winners are included in the trio who didn’t run at the festival, although last year’s winner was rather by accident than design, as he would have contested the Stayers’ Hurdle, had he not been injured.

Of those 17 most recent winners, 11 had run in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on their previous start, with Iris’s Gift and Big Buck’s (x4) completing the double. After the race was switched to Grand National day, both Solwhit and Thistlecrack also completed the double, whilst the other four winners had finished in the first five. Mighty Man was twice placed at Cheltenham (2nd and 3rd) before his two victories in this race, so respect those who ran well in the feature on day three from the festival.

Whisper had won the Coral Cup ahead of his first win in this race, whilst two more recent winners – Yanworth and Identity Thief – took the huge step up in distance from the Champion Hurdle. Given that the Aintree Hurdle is a more prestigious race and staged over 2m4f on day one, it is quite unusual to see horses take such a leap, but as with the Stay56

ers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, horses with the class to contest Grade 1s over 2m are often able to make an impact in the staying division. Apple’s Jade attempted the same thing in 2019, finishing in third, so respect any horse stepping up in trip.

However, the Stayers’ Hurdle remains the obvious race to begin with, when looking at this contest, and since it was handed Grade 1 status (2010), winners of that race have a record of 5-6, with form figures of 111121.

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

WE have seen three multiple winners of this race since 2006, so the record of last year’s winner during this period stands at 5-5 (Big Buck’s being responsible for three of those). Mighty Man and Whisper were the other back-to-back winners, which bodes well for the chances of Thyme Hill, should he return to defend his crown. 2019 winner If The Cap Fits was beaten in last year’s race, but there was obviously a two-year break between his win and his defence.

Upon the race moving to Aintree, the first 10 winners of the race had finished first or second at this meeting previously. Overall, 12 of the 17 winners tick this box, so good form at this meeting is a huge

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

OTHER KEY RACES

FOR the British-trained staying hurdlers, there are three key Graded races earlier in the calendar, starting with Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle, a race which was won by Thyme Hill on his reappearance last season. Big Buck’s won this race three times and Thistlecrack won it on his first start out of novice company, so that is five winners in the past 11 renewals. This season’s race appeared to fall apart a little in front and Thomas Darby – who finished third in this race last year – picked up the pieces.

Thyme Hill was then narrowly denied in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle in December 2020, a race which Big Buck’s (x3) and Thistlecrack won en route to Cheltenham-Aintree glory, and he again finished runner-up this season. The race was won

by Champ, who was reverting to hurdles for the first time since he won the 2019 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting.

The Cleeve Hurdle on trials day was won twice

by Big Buck’s (ahead of his first and last wins in both the Stayers’ and this) and Thistlecrack also won that contest with consummate ease, before winning at both festivals. On the back of that Long Walk success, Champ was sent off at 8-15 to win this year’s Cleeve, but was beaten by 2019 Stayers’ Hurdle winner, Paisley Park, who gave away plenty of ground at the start but came home strongest of all. He was pulled-up in this race last year, but was a winner at Aintree back in October 2018, when winning a handicap off a mark of 140, on what was his first start out of novice company.

PROVEN CLASS

THYME HILL was a Grade 1 winner as a novice (Challow) and a three-time Grade 2 winner ahead of last year’s victory, making him the 16th winner in

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS Stayers’ Hurdle winners are 5-6 since the race became a Grade 1 (2010) 12 of the 17 winners (since the race moved to Aintree) had finished 1st or 2nd at this meeting previously 16 of the past 17 winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 (14 of them successful in Grade 1 company) 15 of the past 17 winners returned at 11-2 or shorter 15 of the past 17 winners were aged 6-8 14 of the past 17 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival 13 of the past 17 winners were top- or second-top-rated (BHA Ratings) 12 of the past 17 winners had already won over 3m 9 of the past 17 favourites have won 5 of the past 11 winners won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury Horses rated 170+ are 6-7 since 2004 Respect Grade 1 form over 2m Respect novice hurdle form from this meeting Only 1 of the past 17 winners returned at odds greater than 7-1 Only 2 of the past 17 winners rated below 155 Only 2 of the past 17 winners were aged 9 Only 2 of the past 17 winners were trained in Ireland No 5yo winner since the race was moved to Aintree the past 17 years (since the race moved to Aintree) to have already recorded at least one win at either level. During this period, only Whisper (ahead of his first win) had failed to do so, with 14 of the 16 winners having already scored in Grade 1 company.

OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

13 of the past 17 winners were either top-rated or second-top on official BHA Ratings. Iris’s Gift, Big Buck’s (x4) and Thistlecrack all boasted lofty ratings in the 170s and during this period there have only been seven horses rated 170+ to have contested this race, with Inglis Drever beaten in the 2008 renewal. Identity Thief (153) and If The Cap Fits (152) were the lowest-rated winners, so pay healthy respect to those rated in the 160s and even more so, any rated 170 or above.

57

DAY THREE STAYERS HURDLE

positive. Looking at the previous season’s novice hurdles can be a good starting point, with both Iris’s Gift and Thistlecrack successful in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier. Both Monet’s Garden and Blazing Bailey finished runner-up in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, whilst Mighty Man had won the 2m Top Novices’ Hurdle the year before his first success.

Four-time winner Big Buck’s had won the Mildmay Novices’ Chase the season before his first success, so pay healthy respect to any horse who ran well at last year’s meeting. Looking back a little further can also help, with Solwhit winning the Aintree Hurdle four years before winning this race, whilst If The Cap Fits had finished fourth in the Grade 2 bumper a couple of years prior to winning this race.

DAY THREE STAYERS HURDLE

MARKET FORCES

GIVEN that the higher-rated horses have been dominant, it isn’t too surprising that 15 of the 17 winners returned at 11-2 or shorter and nine of them were sent off the outright favourite. Identity Thief won at 14-1 in 2018 and is the only winner during those past 17 renewals to have returned at odds greater than 7-1.

AGE

WE saw several ‘older’ winners of this race when it was still staged at Ascot, but in its current format, there have been no winners older than the age of nine. And, only two nine-year-olds have been successful, which suggests we should be focused on those aged between six and eight. With eight wins in those past 17 years, seven seems to be the prime age for a contender of this race. Gallant Moss won the race as a five-year-old in 1999 (at Ascot), but since it moved to Aintree, there has been no winner for that age group. There have actually only been three five-year-old runners in the past decade, although Smad Place was sent off second-favourite in 2012.

STAMINA

THE likes of Yanworth, Identity Thief and If The Cap Fits have shown in recent years that proven stamina in the book isn’t a necessity ahead of this race and form over shorter – as per an earlier subsection – should be respected. That said, 12 of the past 17 winners had already won over 3m and it is certainly more common to have assured stamina than not.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

IRISH-TRAINED horses have only won two of the 17 renewals since the race was switched to Aintree, those being Solwhit and Identity Thief. Those two victories have come in the past eight renewals, however, and during the past 10 runnings, there have been just 15 Irish-trained runners, with many an Irish stayer saved with Punchestown in mind.

Gigginstown House Stud seem happy to target this race and have had a couple of thirds as well as their winner Identity Thief. Perhaps last year’s Aintree Hurdle winner Abacadabras might be considered for this year’s contest.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

THERE isn’t any real outstanding performer in this race, with Paul Nicholls gaining his four wins courtesy of Big Buck’s, whilst Whisper provided Nicky Henderson with his two wins. Champ is a likely contender for Henderson this year and as already highlighted, he was a winner at the Grand National meeting in 2019. He would need to overcome the age statistic, however, being a 10-year-old.

Alan King is the only trainer to have won the race with two different horses in recent years, successful with both Blazing Bailey and Yanworth, and he has run plenty of his stable stars in the race.

Yanworth is his only runner in the past seven years, however, and he hasn’t entered any horse in this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 12

Thyme Hill

Age Weight 7

11-7

OR

SP

162

5/2F

Trainer P Hobbs

Runners 15

Last Race (No. of days) 2nd Gr.1 Long Walk Hurdle (112)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 2132

If The Cap Fits

7

11-7

152

7/1

H Fry

15

2nd Gr.2 Fontwell Hurdle (41)

2018 624

Identity Thief

8

11-7

153

14/1

H de Bromhead (IRE)

10

4th Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (32)

2017 111D

Yanworth

7

11-7

163

9/4F

A King

11

disq. Gr.1 Champion Hurdle (25)

2016 21111

Thistlecrack

8

11-7

174

2/7F

C Tizzard

6

1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (23)

2015 25

Whisper

7

11-7

163

5/1

N Henderson

9

5th Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (30)

2014 33121

Whisper

6

11-7

159

4/1

N Henderson

7

1st Gr.3 Coral Cup (24)

2013 211

Solwhit

9

11-7

164

9/4F

C Byrnes (IRE)

13

1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (23)

2012 1111

Big Buck’s

9

11-7

174

2/9F

P Nicholls

8

1st Gr.1 Stayers’ Hurdle (28)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES Cleeve Hurdle 2 (Big Buck’s 1st, Thistlecrack 1st) Stayers’ Hurdle 5 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Solwhit 1st, Whisper 5th, Thistlecrack 1st) * Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st & 1st, Whisper 1st) Long Walk Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st, Thistlecrack 1st, Thyme Hill 2nd) Long Distance Hurdle 3 (Big Buck’s 1st, Thistlecrack 1st, Thyme Hill 1st) * denotes previous season

58

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL

RANDOX GRAND NATIONAL

4m2f 74y (Grade 3 Handicap) OVERVIEW

DESPITE the distance being reduced and the modifications to the fences in recent years, the Grand National remains the most iconic race in the calendar. The modern-day National winner requires a touch of class and younger horses have come to the fore in recent years. Tiger Roll etched his name into Aintree folklore by winning back-to-back renewals in 2018 and 2019, and the loss of the 2020 meeting must have been a devastating blow to his chances of a third Grand National success. The history books were still re-written last year, however, as Rachael Blackmore became the first female jockey to ride the winner of the race, when partnering the Henry de Bromhead-trained Minella Times.

His trainer took all before him in the spring of 2021 and saddled the 1-2, as he had done in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, as well as winning the Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother Champion Chase.

A HISTORIC MOMENT

THIS time last year, if history was to be re-written in the 2021 Grand National, the most probable reason would have been an unprecedented hat-trick of wins in the race for Tiger Roll. Red Rum won the race three times, of course, but not in successive years, but the 2018 and 2019 winner was prevented the opportunity to win a third National by the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 and then by his own connections 12 months later. With Tiger Roll sitting the race out (actually contested the Bowl two days earlier), the door was left ajar for a new chapter to be written.

Having lit up a crowd-less Cheltenham Festival just three weeks earlier, Rachael Blackmore forced that door fully open, becoming the first female jockey to ride a Grand National winner, when partnering Minella Times to a 6½-length success, over stable-mate Balko des Flos (credit here, too, to Henry de Bromhead, who enjoyed an incredible spell last spring). Blackmore was riding the crest of a wave and calling this the icing on the cake doesn’t do it justice. With such limited numbers in attendance, I felt privileged to be on course on the day, to witness a piece of sporting history.

60

RACHAEL BLACKMORE

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

AINTREE EXPERIENCE

TIGER ROLL became the just the second winner in 36 years to have won or placed in the race previously, when successful for a second time, in 2019. This is an obvious barrier for last year’s winner and placed horses to overcome. Burrows Saint (4th) looked a natural and appeared to relish the fences but didn’t see the trip out, whilst Any Second Now (3rd) is sure to be popular if lining up again, by virtue of the fact that he didn’t enjoy a clear run throughout. Minella Times will be racing off a much higher mark this time around, so it will be difficult for all three, should any of them face the starter once again.

Minella Times became the 11 th winner in the past 13 to be having his first crack at the race and experience over the National fences is seemingly becoming less significant. Again, this could be coinciding with the smaller fences, which appear to be easier for many a horse to take to. Between 2001 and 2009, seven of the 10 winners had previously

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

KEY TRENDS 11 of the past 13 winners were having their first start in the race 20 of the past 25 winners were aged 8-10 17 of the past 22 winners were Irish-bred (this includes 9 of the past 11) 12 of the past 16 winners had won over 3m1f+ 8 of the past 12 winners had run at the meeting before (not on the Grand National course) 8 of the past 13 winners had run between 10-14 times over fences 6 of the past 14 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival 6 of the past 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last-time-out 3 of the past 5 winners came out of Irish Points 3 of the past 5 winners were owned by Gigginstown House Stud 3 of the past 12 winners were French-bred 8yo’s have a fine recent record (from a relatively small representation) Respect sound jumpers with a blemish-free record Respect form over 3m4f+ Respect JP McManus-owned runners No winning 7yo since 1940 7yo’s are 0-44 this century Only 1 of the past 25 winners was a 12yo Only 2 of the past 37 winners had won or placed in the National previously Only 2 of the past 24 winners had fallen more than twice Only 3 winners this century had not won over at least 3m Only 3 of the past 16 winners failed to record a top-4 finish last-time-out

run on the famous course, but since then, only three of the past 11 fell into this category and one of them was Tiger Roll when winning his second.

Therefore, looking at horses who are having their first attempt at the course is much less of a negative nowadays, than it was previously.

The other two recent winners to have run at the course previously (aside from Tiger Roll) were Pineau de Re and One For Arthur, who had both contested the Becher Chase earlier in the season.

The former was pulled-up and the latter finished 61

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL

THE RISE OF THE YOUNGER HORSE

BETWEEN 1984 and 2014, only two eight-yearolds – the giant Party Policits and Bindaree – were successful, but Minella Times became the fourth winner of that age group in the past six years and the other pair were aged nine. As highlighted in last year’s Guide, the modification of the fences and the increased prize-money have probably helped attract a better quality of field in recent years and perhaps, owners and trainers are now prepared to run their younger, improving chasers in the race, as opposed to waiting until slightly later in their careers. I certainly don’t think this is coincidental and we should continue to focus on the younger horses.

Since 1996, 20 of the past 25 winners were aged eight (5), nine (8) or 10 (7), with only one winning 12-year-old during this period. In terms of representation, eight-year-olds are performing very well and clearly becoming more and more influential in the race. At this stage, I would be keen to continue to focus on those aged 10 or younger.

At the other end of the scale, there has been no winning seven-year-old since 1940, when Bogskar was successful in the final race before World War II. Fifth home Farclas (sent off at just 16-1) was one of just two seven-year-olds to run last year, with Secret Reprieve – well fancied after winning the Welsh National – missing the cut. That takes the record of that age group to 0-44 this century and plenty of those were sent off quite prominently in the market. It is clearly a huge ask for a horse of that age and remains a definite negative.

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL

fifth, whilst this season’s race was dominated by the grey mare Snow Leopardess, who jumped beautifully under Aidan Coleman, before prevailing by just a nose in the end, from Hill Sixteen, with Checkitout 16 lengths back in third.

The previous season’s Scottish Grand National is another good point of call, with Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore all running at Ayr the previous year. The Lucinda Russelltrained Mighty Thunder took the 2021 renewal, beating the 7-1 favourite Dingo Dollar into second.

As for races during the current campaign, the rise in the weights proved too much for Cloth Cap last year, but he had earlier won the Ladbrokes Trophy, as had Many Clouds who also carried the familiar silks of the late Trevor Hemmings.

Again, Neptune Collonges (pulled-up) had also run at Newbury earlier in the season, whilst Charlie Deutsch sported the Hemmings silks to victory this season, aboard the Venetia Williams-trained Cloudy Glen, who had ½-a-length to spare over Fiddlerontheroof at the line.

SNOW LEOPARDESS

Silver Birch had also won a Becher, albeit two-and-a-half years before he won the National, whilst both Bindaree (4th) and Monty’s Pass (2nd) had hit the frame in the Topham Chase at this meeting, 12 months earlier. You would have to have serious stamina doubts about those who ran well in last year’s Topham, however.

STAMINA

MINELLA TIMES became just the third winner this century not to have already won over a minimum of 3m and I must admit, stamina was a huge question mark for me with him, prior to the race. Of the past 16 winners, a dozen had won over 3m1f or further, with seven of them having won over 3m4f of further. Although a maiden, Rule The World had finished runner-up in the Irish Grand National, so pay healthy respect to those with long-distance form already in the book. Tiger Roll would be another good example, having won a National Hunt Chase and a Glenfarclas Chase, ahead of his first win in the race.

OTHER KEY RACES

THE previous season’s Irish Grand National seems a good place to start and as well as Rule The World, the same owners’ Tiger Roll had pulled-up in that contest 12 months before winning at Aintree.

Numbersixvalverde won the Irish National before winning at Aintree the following year, whilst in 1998, the next two National winners fought out the finish at Fairyhouse, with Bobbyjo beating Papillon.

Last year’s race was won by Freewheelin Dylan, who beat current National Hunt Chase fancy Run Wild Fred (also owned by Gigginstown).

62

CLOUDY GLEN

One For Arthur (1st) and Auroras Encore (5th) ran in Warwick’s Classic Chase en route to Aintree and this year’s race was won in fine style, by the Emma Lavelle-trained Eclair Surf. Being a lightly-raced, eight-year-old, French-bred (more of which shortly), he would look to have a very appealing profile for the modern-day National, but Lavelle suggested afterwards that this season’s race might come a little too soon for him and Ayr’s Scottish Grand National could be a more suitable spring target. He went up 10lbs for that 13-length success.

And, be sure to take note of the ‘trials’ that take place after the Guide has gone to print, those being the Grand National Trial at Haydock (19 th February) and the Premier Kelso Chase a fortnight later.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM

SIX of the past 14 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month, with Silver Birch and Tiger Roll taking in the Glenfarclas Chase, which is clearly a route that Gordon Elliott likes to plot. Last year’s National runner-up Balko des Flos had unseated Rachael Blackmore in that very race

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

PREVIOUS AINTREE FORM

EIGHT of the past 12 winners had run at this meeting previously, excluding races on the Grand National course. Three of those were successful, whilst more recently two winners and four placed horses in recent Nationals had contested the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in their earlier days.

CHASING EXPERIENCE

IN-KEEPING with the earlier subsection relating to the younger horses coming to the fore in recent years, eight of the past 13 winners had run between 10 and 14 times over fences. Last year’s winner had run just the 10 times in chases before winning the National, so it is very much favouring the up-andcomer as opposed to the seasoned handicapper (as is the case with many a feature handicap in the season). Focus on those with the scope for further improvement.

As for falls/unseats, only two of the past 24 winners had hit the deck more than twice, so look for an assured jumper. Last year’s winner had never fallen under Rules (had fallen in his sole Point-toPoint) and Tiger Roll is the only winner(s) in the past six years to have come down previously (unseated as a novice). Therefore, pay even more respect for those who have a blemish-free record.

CURRENT FORM

PRIOR to last year, the three previous winners had won on their previous start, as had Comply Or Die (Eider Chase) back in 2008. Strictly looking at the past 10 winners, a further three had finished second – including Minella Times who filled the runners-up spot in a valuable 2m5f handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival – and another three finished between third and sixth, the sixth being Many Clouds in the Gold Cup. Therefore, look to a positive recent performance, with that seemingly more significant in the past decade. Going back a little further, Hedgehunter won the Bobbyjo Chase

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

on his final start before winning in 2005, and in total, of the past 16 winners, only three finished outside the first four last-time-out.

WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

BETWEEN 1984 and 2004, no horse carried more than 11-stone to victory in the National, but whilst that was once the cut-off point when looking for the winner, things have changed considerably in recent years. Admittedly, last year’s winner carried just 10-3, but it was a high-class renewal, with Bristol de Mai running off top-weight and a mark of 167. Again, I think this is indicative of the way the race is going and we should no longer be looking solely at the lowly-weight runners at the foot of the weights. The fact that you needed to be rated 145 to get a run last year shows how far the race has come. Many Clouds shouldered 11-9 to success in 2015 and that was the best weight-carrying performance since Red Rum (1977) when he won his second National. The table below shows the weights carried by the first four home in each of the past 10 renewals.

2021

10-3 / 10-9 / 10-9 / 10-13

2019

11-5 / 10-11 / 11-0 / 10-4

2018

10-13 / 10-11 / 10-6 / 11-8

2017

10-11 / 10-13 / 10-10 / 11-1

2016

10-7 / 10-8 / 10-6 / 11-1

2015

11-9 / 10-6 / 10-7 / 10-3

2014

10-6 / 10-13 / 10-11 / 10-2

2013

10-3 / 10-11 / 11-3 / 10-11

2012

11-6 / 10-5 / 10-12 / 10-10

2011

11-0 / 10-9 / 11-10 / 10-6

Whilst no horse completed the course carrying 11-stone or more last year, you can see from this table that it can be done nowadays and five of the past 16 winners have now carried 11-1 or more.

In terms of official BHA Ratings, Minella Times was successful from a mark of 146, which was the lowest since Pineau de Re (143) in 2014. Nine of the past 12 winners were rated 148 or higher, with five successful from a mark in the 150s and Many Clouds won off 160. Last year’s placed horses raced off 152, 152 and 156 respectively, again suggesting that the classier types are rising to the top. I have added a new table (see overleaf) this year, highlighting the Official BHA Ratings of the first four home in each of the past six renewals. In the past four alone, you will see that 10 of the 16 horses to win or fill those places were rated in the 150s, so this could be a growing trend.

63

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL

(sent off just 6-1), so pay healthy respect to any horse who has run well on the cross-country course.

Both Don’t Push It and Pineau de Re contested the Pertemps Final over hurdles, whilst Many Clouds had finished sixth in the Gold Cup. The latter had run in the Broadway Novices’ Chase (now the Brown Advisory and formerly the ‘RSA’) 13 months prior to winning the National, whilst Comply Or Die finished runner-up in the same event, two years earlier. Respect Graded novice chase form and from last year’s Brown Advisory, runner-up Fiddlerontheroof would be an interesting contender, from a class angle.

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL

LAST year’s winner was a faller (in front when falling at the last) on his only start in the Irish Pointto-Point sphere, whilst both Rule The World and One For Arthur were successful between the flags in Ireland. The three winners prior to that ran in bumpers, but I am keen to see if the Point-to-Point trend continues, given the depth of quality to come out of that arena in recent years. I expect it might be something we see more of, particularly as we see a classier type winning the National nowadays.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won two Grand Nationals, going back to 1998 when Earth Summit was successful, and he boasts a very strong record in all races over the big fences. A six-time winner of the Becher Chase, he is a trainer who clearly loves the unique course at Aintree and his entries this year are Good Boy Bobby and The Hollow Ginge.

Another three-time winning owner is the late Trevor Hemmings, who sadly passed away in October of last year. A huge figure in the sport, particularly in the North of England, his silks have been carried to success by Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and most recently Many Clouds. The horses he had in training still run in the same green, yellow and white silks, and those silks could be carried this year by Deise Aba and the aforementioned Cloudy Glen.

Minella Times provided JP McManus with a second National in the past 11 renewals, following on from the victory of Don’t Push It, under AP McCoy in 2010. He returned to finish third the following year, after which Sunnyhillboy went agonisingly close to providing McManus (and trainer Jonjo O’Neill) with a second win in three years, when beaten just a nose in 2012. Double Seven (3rd), Shutthefrontdoor (5th), Gilgamboa (4th), Cause Of Causes (2nd), Anibale Fly (4th & 5th) and Any Second Now (3rd last year) have all gone close in the green and gold hoops in recent years. He has a dozen horses entered this year.

In contrast to those ‘winners’ listed above, the Grand National continues to elude trainer Nicky Henderson who has won almost every other big prize in the sport. Ok Corral was pulled-up for the Seven Barrows stable last year and his entries this year are Caribean Boy and Chantry House.

CONNECTIONS TO NOTE

WEIGHTS ANNOUNCED

2021

146 / 152 / 152 / 156

2019

159 / 151 / 154 / 144

2018

150 / 148 / 143 / 159

2017

148 / 150 / 147 / 152

2016

148 / 149 / 147 / 156

2015

160 / 143 / 144 / 140

BREEDING

MINELLA TIMES became the 17th Irish-bred winner of the National in the past 22 and this includes the nine of the past 11 winners. Admittedly, such horses are often best represented (numerically) by some distance, but it is striking all the same and Irishbred horses are still overperforming when looking at their percentage of winners to runners.

From a much smaller pool, there have been three French-bred winners in the past 12 renewals. The amount of French-bred runners is increasing all of the time, so this is becoming less significant, although, again, they are still marginally outperforming their representation, and Balko des Flos and Burrows Saint were placed last year.

POINT-TO-POINT BACKGROUND

TIGER ROLL and Silver Birch have provided Gordon Elliott with three wins in the race to date and he is certainly the most prolific trainer in recent years.

Four horses represented Cullentra House Stable last year – under the name of stand-in trainer Denise Foster – with the seven-year-old Farclas finishing fifth.

All four of those runners carried the silks of Gigginstown House Stud, who had five runners in total, and they have been responsible for three winners since 2016. Clearly unhappy with the weight/rating allotted to Tiger Roll last year, Eddie and Michael O’Leary still seemed more than happy to have a strong representation in the race and I suspect that will continue. This year Elliott has 19 horses entered (at the initial entry stage, 1st February) and Gigginstown have 13.

64

AS with previous years, the weights for the Grand National were unveiled on the very same day that this Guide went to print.

Recent Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated and his stable-mate Galvin top the initial weights (11-10), both having been handed a rating of 167. Melon comes next (11-6), whilst last year’s winner is currently set to carry 11-4 (carried just 10-3 in 2021) although the weights could conceivably rise by at least 5lbs, with those top three all uncertain to face the starter. In terms of official ratings, Minella Times is fully 15lbs higher (161 compared to 145) this year.

Two-time winner Tiger Roll has also been allotted 11-4 from a mark of 161, which is still 2lbs higher than when winning his second National in 2019. Last year’s third Any Second Now carried 10-9 last year and is currently set to carry 11-2, from a 7lbs higher mark.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

DAY THREE GRAND NATIONAL MINELLA TIMES

ROLL OF HONOUR Year Form

Winner

2021 12

Minella Times

Age Weight 8

10-3

OR

SP

Trainer

146

11/1

H de Bromhead

Runners 40

Last Race (No. of days) 2nd Leopardstown H’cap Chase (62)

2020 NO RACE - meeting cancelled 2019 411

Tiger Roll

9

11-5

159

4/1F

G Elliott (IRE)

40

1st Glenfarclas Chase (24)

2018 2P51

Tiger Roll

8

10-13

150

10/1

G Elliott (IRE)

38

1st Glenfarclas Chase (31)

2017 151

One For Arthur

8

10-11

148

14/1

L Russell

40

1st Gr.3 Warwick Chase (84)

2016 32254 Rule The World

9

10-7

148

33/1

M Morris (IRE)

39

4th Gr.3 Naas Directors Plate (34)

2015 1116

Many Clouds

8

11-9

160

25/1

O Sherwood

39

6th Gr.1 Gold Cup (23)

2014 F2713

Pineau de Re

11

10-6

143

25/1

Dr R Newland

40

3rd Listed Pertemps Final (23)

11

10-3

137

66/1

S Smith

40

5th Listed Kelso Premier Chase (35)

Neptune Collonges 11

11-6

157

33/1

P Nicholls

40

2nd Gr.3 Grand National Trial (56)

2013 P45F5 Auroras Encore 2012 P422

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES *Scottish Grand National 2 (Neptune Collonges 6th, Auroras Encore 2nd) Becher Chase 2 (Pineau de Re p.u., One For Arthur 5th) Premier Kelso Chase 2 (Ballabriggs 2nd, Auroras Encore 5th) Ladbrokes Trophy 2 (Neptune Collonges p.u., Many Clouds 1st) Betfred Classic 2 (Auroras Encore 5th, One For Arthur 1st) *Irish Grand National 2 (Rule The World 2nd, Tiger Roll p.u.)

Cross Country Chase 2 (Tiger Roll 1st, 1st) * denotes previous season

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

65

RANDOX HEALTH

Grand National Preview

BY PAUL FERGUSON

THE obvious place to start is with last year’s race, with seven of the first eight home once again entered. Last year’s winner Minella Times has run just twice since and failed to complete on either occasion. After falling on his reappearance in the Grade 1 John Durkan at Punchestown, he was then pulled-up in a 2m5f handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival, a race in which he had finished runner-up (off a 19lbs lower mark) 12 months earlier.

He jumped brilliantly last year and was well-positioned throughout, clearly enjoying the big fences.

Given the authority with which he won, it would be difficult to say that he couldn’t follow up, but he is rated 15lbs higher this year. Tiger Roll was just 9lbs higher (159 compared to 150) when winning his second National, which goes to show the size of the task which Minella Times is faced with. On a positive note, he was strong at the finish last year and I had questioned his stamina beforehand. Still only nine and fairly lightly-raced, I can certainly see him running another big race, but that hefty rise in the weights might just halt him from becoming another dual-winner.

As mentioned in last year’s Guide, I was keen on the chances of Burrows Saint and he, too, really took to the course. He jumped very well under Patrick Mullins, but faded late on and was eventually beaten 27 lengths into fourth. He shaped well behind Al Boum Photo at Tramore on New Year’s Day (beaten 4 lengths, in receipt of 7lbs) and is another nine-year-old with not-too-many miles on the clock. He is again rated 156 so should close the gap, but he looked a patent non-stayer last year and will need to preserve some energy (somehow) for the closing stages.

66

Last year’s third Any Second Now is sure to be popular. Ted Walsh’s 10-year-old lost his position when badly hampered at the 12 th fence and was on the backfoot from that point. He managed to work his way back into contention and stayed on well to the elbow, before his effort levelled-out, eventually crossing the line some 8¼ lengths behind the winner, with a yawning 19 lengths back to Burrows Saint. Rated 159, he will be 8lbs better off at the weights with Minella Times and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he ended up as clear favourite on the day. A former winner of the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival (2019), don’t be surprised to see him head back to Navan for the Webster Cup in March, with his trainer a fan of running his National horses over much shorter as part of their preparation.

Fifth last year, Farclas was having just his second start beyond 2m5½f and was trying to repeat the feat of the same connections’ Tiger Roll, in that he was a previous Triumph Hurdle winner. Only seven, he had a huge age barrier to overcome last year, so there is a chance that he will be a stronger stayer this time around and he did stay on well at Navan in November, when finishing runner-up in the Troytown Handicap Chase. He remains lightly-raced and is a possible runner in the Glenfarclas Chase at Cheltenham, a route that Gordon Elliott has taken with all three of his Grand National winners.

A positive showing there could set him up nicely for Aintree, although at the time of writing, he has no experience of a Cross-Country course.

With the statistics showing that only two of the past 37 winners had either won or placed in the race previously, I’m prepared to look elsewhere.

If you like to have a bit of course experience on

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

your side, the likeable grey Snow Leopardess appeared to relish the challenge when winning the Becher Chase in early-December. Charlie Longsdon’s 10-year-old had earlier jumped well when making a winning return at Bangor and her jumping is likely to hold her in good stead, and she, too, remains lightly-raced over fences, having had just the nine chase starts. Drying ground would be a slight concern, as the pick of her form is on soft, and a lot more will be needed here, with her eventually winning the Becher by just a nose (had looked as though she win by a wide-margin at one stage). To her credit, she showed a fine attitude and she has twice run at this fixture, recording a fifth placing in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper (2016) and when sixth in the Betway Handicap Chase last year. I just wonder if she quite has the class to win a modern-day National and no mare has won the race since Nickel Coin – after whom the aforementioned mares’ bumper is now named – in 1951. I could certainly see her completing the course and should give her followers a good run for a long way.

Looking at the other towards the head of the betting, the Gold Cup would appear to be the main aim for Galvin who has been handed a rating of 167 for this, whilst stable-mate Run Wild Fred is currently among the market leaders for the

National Hunt Chase and would still be eligible for novice chases at Aintree or Punchestown. Second in the Irish Grand National last year, he had earlier finished runner-up behind LONGHOUSE POET in a beginners chase (3m1f, heavy) at Punchestown on 31st December 2020, and that form worked out well last season, with third home, The Big Dog, winning the Grand National Trial at the same track in February of last year.

LONGHOUSE POET is another lightly-raced eight-year-old (I’m very much leaning the way of the younger horse now in the National, as per the trends pages) and he landed an ante-post gamble recently, when staying on strongly to win the Thyestes Chase (3m1f, soft) at Gowran Park.

Martin Brassil’s son of Yeats travelled really well throughout and the way he went through that contest would lead you to believe that he would be well-suited to Aintree, where he could sit just in behind the pace. A sound jumper, he appeared to need his reappearance over an inadequate trip at Limerick over Christmas and his trainer last won the Thyestes with Numbersixvalverde in 2005. He won the Irish Grand National two starts later, before winning at Aintree in 2006, and whilst Fairyhouse is likely to be considered, a trip to Liverpool is sure to come under serious consideration.

MINELLA TIMES

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

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Having won the Thyestes off a mark of 145, he was upped 9lbs by the Irish handicapper and has been handed a mark of 155 for Aintree. Whilst that seems high enough, he looks to possess a touch of class and actually beat Monkfish in a 2m2f bumper at the Punchestown Festival, back in 2019.

The winner of his sole start in the Point-to-Point field, he looks to have a good profile for the race and although the best of his form has come on testing ground, he does have plenty of form on a sounder surface, including a third placing behind Envoi Allen in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle in January 2020. Currently available at 33-1, he should go well if travelling over and is sure to go off much shorter, if given the green light.

The Thyestes could be an important piece of form, as eighth home ESCARIA TEN shaped better than the bare result on his belated reappearance.

Gordon Elliott’s second-season chaser was also having just his sixth chase start and following a fairly serious error at the very first fence (comes up quite quickly), he worked his way into the race and only faded late on. Sent off favourite for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last year, he finished just 3 lengths off Galvin, showing his effectiveness on better ground (had Snow Leopardess 14 lengths back in fourth). Having hit the front between the final two fences, he didn’t finish as strongly as the front two, which does leave a slight doubt about the trip. However, he had previously always given me the impression that a marathon trip was what he wanted and I felt he made a highly encouraging return to action. Again, the Irish National is probably a possibility for him, too, but he pulled-up in that contest last year (albeit at the end of a long season) and he was entered in the Becher earlier in the year, suggesting that Aintree was very much on the radar of his connections. His owners – the McNeill Family – like to have runners at this fixture and I’m sure the lure of having a leading contender in the big race will be too much for them to resist. If the rain arrives, I would expect him to be a big mover in the days/weeks leading up to the race and is another who represents a bit of value at this early stage (25-1). He is expected to head straight to Aintree.

There seems to be a pattern emerging here. A classy second-season chaser, aged eight and rated in the 150s, and the third and final selection also falls into this category. FIDDLERONTHEROOF hasn’t been seen since finishing runner-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy, after which the handicapper put him up 5lbs to 155. The winner hasn’t done much for that form, but the fourth Ontheropes finished fifth in the Thyestes and Fortescue (7th) and Full Back 68

(8th) have run well since, with the latter successful at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. That was the first time that FIDDLERONTHEROOF had attempted 3m2f and he kept on really well, trying to concede 10lbs to Cloudy Glen and he got within ½-a-length at the line. Quick enough to win a Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle just over two years ago, his earlier novice hurdle form ties in with the likes of Thyme Hill and Edwardstone, so there is no denying his natural ability and back-class. Gradually stepped up in trip over fences last term, he finished runner-up to Next Destination in a Grade 2 at Warwick and the winner went on to finish second in the aforementioned National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF

Runner-up to Monkfish – who also beat him in an Irish Point – in the Brown Advisory last March, he flopped at Aintree in the Mildmay, but the Tizzard horses struggled for consistency throughout last season and it also came at the end of a long campaign. Given an easier time of it this season, he made a winning return over 2m4f at Carlisle, where he again stayed on strongly. He holds entries at Ascot (19 th February) and in the Coral Trophy at Kempton the following week, so might well have run again by the time you read this (which is frustrating in terms of the possibility of his price changing). Still engaged in the Gold Cup, there is also a chance that he will head straight to the festival, but I suspect that the Grand National is the big spring target for FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who is versatile in terms of ground and is quite a safe jumper. Likely to be ridden by Brendan Powell Jnr, his dad rode the 1988 winner Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Aintree has a habit of creating stories such as this. Provided his ‘prep’ runs goes well, I can see him running a huge race.

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

Of the remainder, Secret Reprieve missed the cut last year and is likely to face a similar outcome this time around, having been dropped 2lbs by the handicapper, for his belated reappearance at Chepstow. Attempting to defend his Welsh Grand National crown, it appeared as though Evan Williams’ eight-year-old needed the run and although he holds an entry in Haydock’s Grand National Trial (19 th February), that comes after the publication of the weights.

Last year’s Kim Muir winner Mount Ida would be an intriguing runner and she is two-from-two this season, against her own sex. She was given a remarkable ride to win at last year’s festival (beat Cloudy Glen by 6½ lengths), but often looks more comfortable on a right-handed track. Gordon Elliott opted against running her in the Irish Gold Cup recently, although she remains engaged in next month’s Gold Cup, whilst also having the option of running in the second renewal of the Mares’ Chase.

The Irish National might be a more suitable spring target for her.

Classic Chase winner Eclair Surf is another who would appreciate a wet spring – with all five of his wins (including his Point-to-Point success) coming on soft or heavy – and given his current rating, wouldn’t be sure to get in. Emma Lavelle stated that the Scottish National could be a more realistic target this year.

Franco de Port and Chris’s Dream are another pair who ran in the Thyestes Chase during January, the former running a huge race to finish second off a mark of 153. That was his first start in a handicap over fences, having exclusively contested Grade 1s (seven of them) since winning his beginners chase at Thurles in November 2020. The winner of the Racing Post Novice Chase the following month (2m1f), he is a classy individual, but stamina would have to be a big question mark for him, whilst Chris’s Dream was still going quite well when un-seating four out last year. Similar comments apply to his run in the Becher, when he appeared to be well-positioned before losing Jonjo O’Neill Jnr on the sharp Canal Turn. He is rated 2lbs lower than last year.

Finally, another JP McManus-owned contender is School Boy Hours, who won for the first time over fences at Christmas, when landing the valuable Paddy Power Chase, a race in which Minella Times had finished runner-up 12 months earlier.

A Presenting half-brother to the classy Finian’s Oscar (three-time Grade 1 winner up to 2m4f and twice at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, incidentally), stamina again isn’t assured, but he stayed on strongly up the Leopardstown hill to catch Ben

Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022

ANTE POST ADVICE:

LONGHOUSE POET EACH-WAY @ 33-1

ESCARIA TEN EACH-WAY @ 25-1

FIDDLERONTHEROOF EACH-WAY @ 33-1 PRICES CORRECT AT THE TIME OF GOING TO PRINT

Dundee, taking his I.H.R.B. Rating up to 142. The English handicapper has given him the same mark and he might, therefore, struggle to get in.

To conclude, whilst it wouldn’t normally be my Modus Operandi to back three horses in the same race, I’m happy to advise a small bet on LONGHOUSE POET, ESCARIA TEN and FIDDLERONTHEROOF at this early stage. There is a chance that the former will be aimed at the Irish equivalent (so he is the lesser-fancied of the trio) and I am conscious that – in all likelihood – the latter might well have run again by the time you read this. As things stand (at the time of writing), all three look to be potentially over-priced and have the scope to contract between now and 9 th April.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF is the horse who interests me most. He is a classy individual and has a little more experience than the other pair.

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AUTHOR Paul Ferguson THANKS TO Mark Cranham, John Grossisck, Steve Cargill and Healy Racing Ltd. The views, opinions and positions expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of Weatherbys or any employee thereof. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information at the time of publication, Weatherbys will not be liable for any losses arising from its use.

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide went to print on Tuesday 15th February.

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Grand National Festival Betting Guide 2022