Policy Papers by Women of Color, Second Edition: CBRN Policy and Global Health Security

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2020

Women of Color Advancing Peace Security Conflict Transformation

Polic Papers b Women of Color Diverse Voices on Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Security and Global Health Security Policy

Contents

The Role f The Intersectio

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Welcome Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins nflict

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all the

6

Note and Introduction from the Editors

Sylvia Mishra & Editorial Board

Th Th

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flect

The

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The Challenged Chemical Disarmament Norm and Lessons for Global Public Policy: Experiences of Women of Color Advancing Chemical Disarmament

1

“Chemical Weapons,” Syrian Archive, accessed August 1, 2020, https://syrianarchive.org/en/datasets/chemicalweapons/.

2

Nikki Haley, “Remarks at a UN Security Council Briefing on the Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria,” United States Mission to the United Nations, September 6, 2018, https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-at-a-un-security-councilbriefing-on-the-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-syria/.

9

3

Andrea Hall, “United States of America Statement by Andrea Hall,” OPCW Conference of States Parties, November 27, 2017, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-22/national_statements/USA_NAT.pdf.

4

“OPCW Releases First Report by Investigation and Identification Team,” OPCW, April 8, 2020, https://www.opcw. org/media-centre/news/2020/04/opcw-releases-first-report-investigation-and-identification-team.

5

Heather Nauert, “Imposition of Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act Sanctions on North Korea,” U.S. Department of State, March 6, 2018, https://www.state.gov/imposition-of-chemical-andbiological-weapons-control-and-warfare-elimination-act-sanctions-on-north-korea/.

6

“Treasury Announces Sanctions under the Chemical and Biological Control and Warfare Elimination Act,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, August 3, 2019, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm750.

7

“Director-General’s Statement on the First Report by the OPCW Investigation and Identification Team,” OPCW, April 8, 2020, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/Director-General%27s%20 Statement%20on%20the%20First%20Report%20by%20IIT%208%20April%202020.pdf

8

“Nobel Peace Prize,” OPCW, https://www.opcw.org/about-us/nobel-peace-prize.

10

POLICY PAPERS BY WOMEN OF COLOR

9

Hall, “United States of America Statement by Andrea Hall.”

10 Ahmet Üzümcü, “Towards a World Free of Chemical Weapons: Disarmament for the Next Generation,” OPCW, June 7, 2015, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/ODG/uzumcu/DG_Lecture_Tsinghua_ University.pdf

11

12

www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-SS-4/en/css4dec3_e_.doc.pdf 12 Ibid.

13 “Remarks by Head of the Russian delegation Georgy Kalamanov on the results of voting on the British draft at the fourth special session of the Conference of the States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, The Hague, June 26-28, 2018,” MFA Russia, June 29, 2018, https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_ publisher/UdAzvXr89FbD/content/id/3282752.

14 “Rules of Procedure of the Conference of the States Parties of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons,” OPCW Conference of States Parties, April 8, 2013, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/ documents/CSP/C-I/en/ci03r2_e_.pdf.

15 “Joint Paper: Upholding the Chemical Weapons Convention,” OPCW Conference of States Parties, November 20, 2018, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2018/12/c23nat08%28e%29.pdf

13

17 Oliver Meier, “Interview with OPCW Director-General Rogelio Pfirter,” Arms Control Association, accessed August 1, 2020, https://www.armscontrol.org/interviews/2010_0212_Pfirter.

18 “Chemical and Biological Weapons Status at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, last updated April 2020, https:// www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cbwprolif 19 OPCW, “Director-General’s Statement on the First Report by the OPCW Investigation and Identification Team.”

14

20 “Champions,” Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy, last accessed August 1, 2020, https://www.gcnuclearpolicy. org/champions/champions/.

21 Jack Detsch, “Demonstrations Prompt National Security Community Push for Diversity,” Foreign Policy, June 9, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/09/black-lives-matter-protests-national-security-diversity/ 22 “OPCW Hosts Second Diversity and Inclusion in the Workplace Event,” OPCW, January 15, 2019, https://www. opcw.org/media-centre/news/2019/01/opcw-hosts-second-diversity-and-inclusion-workplace-event 23 “Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Policy,” WCAPS, last accessed August 1, 2020, https:// www.wcaps.org/cbrn-policy

15

POLICY PAPERS BY WOMEN OF COLOR

16

Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins nflict

ofit

nal Affairs.

Wardah Amir Office The

17

Nabila Jamshed

The

Beatrice Maneshi

fir nflic

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How Diversity Issues are Experienced in the Nuclear Threat Reduction Workforce Dr. Sara Kutchesfahani

Stasis and Risk Aversion:

Fragmentation and Competition:

19

Exclusivity and Toxicity:

Career Uncertainty and Lack of Structural Support:

first nfigur To counter stasis and risk aversion, consider discussing reinvention and reinvigoration: To counter fragmentation and competition, consider discussing coordination and collaboration:

20

field field h eff

eff

field

21

Exploring the Role of the OPCW in Addressing Chemical Terrorism Wardah Amir

1

Gary Ackerman and Jeremy Tamsett, Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction (Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis Group, 2009), xxi.

2

Ackerman and Tamsett, Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction, 132.

3

Rebecca Hersman and William Pittinos, Restoring Restraint: Enforcing Accountability for Users of Chemical Weapons, CSIS, June 19, 2018, 32, https://www.csis.org/analysis/restoring-restraint.

4

U.S. Government Accountability Office, Chemical Terrorism: A Strategy and Implementation Plan Would Help DHS Better Manage Fragmented Chemical Defense Programs and Activities, GAO, August 22, 2018, https://www. gao.gov/products/GAO-18-562.

5

The White House, National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America, October 2018, 16.

22

6

OPCW Technical Secretariat, The Implementation of Article VI as a Contribution to Countering Chemical Terrorism, The Hague: OPCW, May 8, 2018, 1.

7

OPCW Executive Council, Decision: Addressing the Threat Posed by the Use of Chemical Weapons by Non-State Actors, The Hague: OPCW, October 13, 2017, https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/EC/86/en/ ec86dec09_e_.pdf.

8

Jonathan Tucker, “The Role of the Chemical Weapons Convention in Countering Chemical Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence, 24:1 (December 2011), 115-116.

23

9 OPCW Technical Secretariat, Summary of the Conference on Countering Chemical Terrorism. The Hague: OPCW, July 16, 2018, 1.

10

24

Ibid, 2.

12 Ibid, 7-8.

13 Ibid, 9-10.

25

14 OPCW Technical Secretariat, The Implementation of Article VI as a Contribution to Countering Chemical Terrorism, 2-5.

15 OPCW Executive Council, Report by H.E. Ambassador Maria Teresa Infante Facilitator of the Sub-Working Group on Non-State Actors of the Open-Ended Working Group on Terrorism. The Hague: OPCW, October 2, 2017, 2-6.

26

Wardah Amir Office The

27

Shifting the Paradigm: One Health Approach for Planetary Health and Security

1

28

Gronvall, Gigi et al. “One health security: an important component of the global health security agenda.� Biosecurity and bioterrorism : biodefense strategy, practice, and science vol. 12,5 (2014): 221-4. doi:10.1089/bsp.2014.0044

2

“Overfishing.” WWF. World Wildlife Fund. https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/overfishing.

3

Steffen, Bjarne, Florian Egli, Michael Pahle, and Tobias S. Schmidt. “Navigating the Clean Energy Transition in the COVID-19 Crisis.” Joule (2020).

4

“International Health Regulations,” World Health Organization, (2005) https://www.who.int/health-topics/ international-health-regulations.

5

Archived WHO Timeline. COVID-19. (2020, June 29). https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-whotimeline---covid-19

6

“Strengthening health security by implementing international health regulations.” (2005). Joint External Evaluations. https://www.who.int/ihr/procedures/joint-external-evaluations/en/

7

“Joint External Evaluation Tool.” International Health Regulations (2005). https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/hand le/10665/259961/9789241550222-eng.pdf?sequence=1

29

8

William B. Karesh and Neil Vora, “One World—One Health,” Emerging Infections 9, 2010, |PAGE|, doi:10.1128/9781555816803.ch17)

9

Amuasi, John H., Tamara Lucas, Richard Horton, and Andrea S. Winkler. “Reconnecting for Our Future: The Lancet One Health Commission.” The Lancet 395, no. 10235 (2020): 1469-471. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31027-8.

10 COVID-19 Chair’s Statement. “What is the role of GHSA 2024 in this pandemic?” Global Health Security Agenda https://ghsagenda.org/news-resources/

30

Conclusion

https:// www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

31

Jennyfer Ambe

Rahwa Osman

fic

32

Robust BWC Implementation Can Also Improve Global Economy and Health Infrastructure

1

Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, Congressional Research Service, Report R46270, July 9, 2020.

2

Ibid, cited from Fiscal Monitor, Statistical Appendix, International Monetary Fund, April 14, 2020.

3

The G-20 includes the G-7 countries plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, and the European Union (EU).

4

CRS Report R46270, op. cit., page 68.

33

34

35

36

37

Global Health Security and the Solidarity etween Nations: Universal Rights for all people “For to be free is not merely to cast off one's chains, but to live in a way that respects and enhances the freedom of others.” Nelson Mandela J

1

“2014-2016 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 8, 2019), https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html.

2

38

“2014-2015 West Africa Ebola Crisis: Impact Update,”World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ macroeconomics/publication/2014-2015-west-africa-ebola-crisis-impact-update.

3

JHU Dashboard. “Home,” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, accessed July 23, 2020, https://coronavirus. jhu.edu/.

4

“The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World,” World Bank, accessed July 23, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-thecovid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world.

5

Thomas Reid, Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man (Dublin: Printed for L. White, 1786).

6

“About WHO,” World Health Organization (World Health Organization), accessed July 23, 2020, https://www.who. int/about.

7

“About WHO,” World Health Organization (World Health Organization), https://www.who.int/about.

8

“Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” United Nations (United Nations), accessed July 23, 2020, https://www. un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/.

9

Maxmen, Amy. “What a US Exit from the WHO Means for COVID-19 and Global Health.” Nature News. Nature Publishing Group, May 27, 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01586-0.

39

Jennyfer Ambe

10 Thomas Reid, Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man (Dublin: Printed for L. White, 1786).

40

Low Hanging Fruit Nomsa Ndongwe

Introduction

Intersection with World Health Organisation International Health Regulations (2005)

Emergency

of International Concern

Public Health

41

1

“Pushed to the Limit and Beyond: A year into the largest ever Ebola outbreak”, MSF, 23 March 2015

2

“WHO Leadership statement on the Ebola Response and WHO reforms”, 16 April 2015

3

In the 2015 “WHO Report of the Review Committee on Second Extensions for Establishing National Public Health Capacities and on IHR Implementation” -only 64 Member States had met minimum core capacity standards out of 193 Member States.

4

Dalaqua, Renata Hessmann, James Revill, Alastair Hay, and Nancy Connell, “Missing Links: Understanding

42

Sex- and Gender-Related Impacts of Chemical and Biological Weapons”, UNIDIR, 2019: https://www.unidir.org/ publication/missing-links-understanding-sex-and-gender-related-impacts-chemical-and-biological 5

Miles, Tom, “West Africa’s Ebola outbreak cost $53 billion – study”, Reuters, 24 October 2014: https://www.reuters. com/article/us-health-ebola-cost/west-africas-ebola-outbreak-cost-53-billion-study-idUSKCN1MY2F8

6

Poos, R. Lawrence, “Lessons from past pandemics: Disinformation, scapegoating, and social distancing”, Brookings Institute, 16 March 2020

7

BWC/CONF.VIII/INF.4 – ISU Report on Article X Implementation, pg. 71 -72

43

“Whether it occurs by a quirk of nature or at the hand of a terrorist, epidemiologists say a fast-moving airborne pathogen could kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And they say there is a reasonable probability the world will experience such an outbreak in the next 10-15 years.”8

8

Bill Gates, Munich Security Conference - February 17, 2017

9

Howard, Brad, “Ebola is Back – And the US Military May Not Be Able to Help This Time”, Task & Purpose, 24 May 2018

10 “Operation United Assistance: The DOD Response to Ebola in West Africa”, Joint and Coalition Operational Analysis (JCOA), 6 January 2016

44

n issues that aff

Nomsa Ndongwe

45

Preventing a Biological Attack: The Role for Proliferation Financing Controls

46

1

Daniel Salisbury, “Exploring the Use of ‘Third Countries’ in Proliferation Networks: The Case of Malaysia,” European Journal of International Security, Volume 4, Issue 1 (2019): 101-122; Glen Anderson, “Points of Deception: Exploring How Proliferators Evade Controls to Obtain Dual-Use Goods,” Strategic Trade Review, Volume 2, Issue 2 (2011): 4-24; Aaron Arnold, “A Resilience Framework for Understanding Illicit Nuclear Procurement Networks,” Strategic Trade Review, Volume 3, Issue 4 (2017): 3-23.

2

Jonathan Brewer, “Study of Typologies of Financing of Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Project Alpha, King’s College London, 2017, 118, https://www.kcl.ac.uk/alpha/assets/fop-13-october-2017-final.pdf.

3

“Pasteur Institute of Iran,” Iran Watch, Wisconsin Project, https://www.iranwatch.org/iranian-entities/pasteurinstitute-iran.

47

48

4

Togzhan Kassenova, “Proliferation Financing: What Financial Institutions Should Know and What They Can Do,” ACAMS Today (September-November 2019): 18-22.

49

The Intersection of Global Health Security, Social Justice, and Public Trust

1

Kevin Lorea, “A mysterious ‘Disease X’ could be the next pandemic to kill millions of people — here’s how worried you should be,” Business Insider, March 13, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/disease-x-who-lists-mysterydisease-as-potential-next-pandemic-2018-3.

2

Bruce Y. Lee, “Disease X Is What May Become The Biggest Infectious Threat To Our World,” Forbes, March 10, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2018/03/10/disease-x-is-what-may-become-the-biggest-infectiousthreat-to-our-world/#6c6a3f142cd7.

3

“COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University & Medicine,” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, last modified 26 June 2020, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ map.html.

4

Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” The Heritage Foundation, June 22, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/commentary/the-danger-refugees-and-the-most-vulnerableduring-covid-19.

5

Weihua Li and Nicole Lewis, “Why the prison population is so vulnerable to COVID-19,” ABA Journal, March 24, 2020, https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/the-at-risk-prison-population-most-vulnerable-to-covid-19

50

6

Mallory Simon, “Over 1,000 health professionals sign a letter saying, Don’t shut down protests using coronavirus concerns as an excuse,” CNN, June 5, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letterprotests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html.

7

Mallory Simon, “Over 1,000 health professionals sign a letter saying, Don’t shut down protests using coronavirus concerns as an excuse,” CNN, June 5, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letterprotests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html.

8

“COVID-19 in Racial and Ethnic Minority Groups,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last modified 25 June 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html.

9

Michelle Mark, “Police across the country draw outrage for excessive force against protesters and media,” Business Insider, May 31, 2020, https://www.businessinsider.com.au/police-george-floyd-protests-excessiveforce-2020-5.

51

10 Jon Emont and Philip Wen, “How Protests Over George Floyd’s Killing Spread Around the World,” The Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-helps-spur-global-protests-over-georgefloyds-death-11591880851.

11 “June 1 coverage of nationwide unrest and ongoing protests,” NBC News, last modified June 2, 2020, https:// www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/blog/2020-06-01-nationwide-protests-over-george-floyd-deathlive-n1220761/ncrd1221596#blogHeader.

12 Abbigail J. Tumpey, David Daigle, and Glen Nowak, “Communicating During an Outbreak or Public Health Investigation,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last modified 13 December 2018, https://www.cdc. gov/eis/field-epi-manual/chapters/Communicating-Investigation.html.

13 Beth Mole, “We may need 300,000 contact tracers to defeat COVID-19. We have 2,200,” Ars Technica, April 14, 2020, https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/we-may-need-300000-contact-tracers-to-defeat-covid-19-wehave-2200/.

52

14 “Sustaining the Stockpile,” Public Health Emergency, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, last modified 16 April 2020, https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/sustaining.aspx.

15 Steph Solis, “The federal government is building a PPE stockpile, but states will have to beef up their own supplies, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar says,” MSN, June 12, 2020, https://www.msn.com/ en-us/news/politics/the-federal-government-is-building-a-ppe-stockpile-but-states-will-have-to-beef-up-theirown-supplies-health-and-human-services-secretary-alex-azar-says/ar-BB15pxiG. 16 “Immunization supply chain and logistics,” World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/immunization/ programmes_systems/supply_chain/en/.

17 “COVID-19 FAQs PPE Use,” ABSA International: The Association for Biosafety and Biosecurity, last updated 4 May 2020, https://absa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ABSA-200502-PPE-FAQs.pdf.

18 Lena V. Groeger and Ash Ngu, “States Are Reopening: See How Coronavirus Cases Rise or Fall,” ProPublica, last updated 20 June 2020, https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/.

53

prevent

cure

19 Bogoch, Isaac. “Lessons Learned About COVID-19.” Interview by Steve Paikin. The Agenda, June 24, 2020, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7CzGSvZLZ4.

20 Bogoch, Isaac. “Lessons Learned About COVID-19.” Interview by Steve Paikin. The Agenda, June 24, 2020, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7CzGSvZLZ4.

21 Jonathan Fielding, “Good communication will help beat COVID-19,” The Hill, March 31, 2020, https://thehill.com/ opinion/healthcare/490410-good-communications-will-help-beat-covid-19.

54

Kimberly Ma first afish;

55

A Tale of Two Government Failures to the Navajo Nation: Radiation Exposure and the COVID-19 Pandemic Jasmine Owens

1

US EPA, REG 09. “Cleaning Up Abandoned Uranium Mines.” Overviews and Factsheets. US EPA, February 16, 2016. Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah. https://www.epa.gov/navajo-nation-uranium-cleanup/cleaningabandoned-uranium-mines.

2

Brugge, Doug, and Rob Goble. “The History of Uranium Mining and the Navajo People.” American Journal of Public Health 92, no. 9 (September 2002): 1410–19.

3

Ibid.

4

Ibid.

5

Szymendera, Scott D. “The Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA): Compensation Related to Exposure to

56

Radiation from Atomic Weapons Testing and Uranium Mining.” Congressional Research Service, January 31, 2020, 20.

6

Begaye, Russell, and Jonathan Nez. “Testimony of the Vice President of the Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez For the Senate Committee on Judiciary Hearing on June 27, 2018 Titled, ‘Examining the Eligibility Requirements for the Radiation Exposure Compensation Program to Ensure All Downwinders Receive Coverage,’” June 27, 2018. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/06-27-18%20Nez%20Testimony.pdf.

7

Assistant Secretary for Legislation (ASL). “America’s Nuclear Past: Examining the Effects of Radiation.” Text. HHS. gov, November 26, 2019. https://www.hhs.gov/about/agencies/asl/testimony/2019-10/americas-nuclear-pastexamining-effects-radiation-indian-country.html.

8

Ibid.

9

Goodluck, Kalen. “Every Corner of the Navajo Nation Has Been Hit by COVID-19.” Mother Jones (blog). Accessed June 7, 2020. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/05/every-corner-of-the-navajo-nation-has-been-hitby-covid-19/.

10 A.B.C. News. “Navajo Nation: Where COVID-19 Claims Whole Families.” ABC News. Accessed June 7, 2020. https:// abcnews.go.com/US/navajo-nation-covid-19-claims-families/story?id=70787562.

11 Goodluck.

12 Torbati, Yeganeh, and Derek Willis. “Masks Sold by Former White House Official to Navajo Hospitals Don’t Meet FDA Standards.” ProPublica. Accessed June 7, 2020. https://www.propublica.org/article/masks-sold-by-formerwhite-house-official-to-najavo-hospitals-dont-meet-fda-standards.

57

13 CNN, Alta Spells. “Doctors Without Borders Dispatched to New Mexico to Help the Navajo Nation.” CNN. Accessed June 7, 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/us/navajo-nation-doctors-without-borders/index.html.

14 ASL 15 US EPA, REG 09. “Cleaning Up Abandoned Uranium Mines.” Overviews and Factsheets. US EP A, February 16, 2016. Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah. https://www.epa.gov/navajo-nation-uranium-cleanup/cleaningabandoned-uranium-mines.

16 The Associated Press. “Navajo Nation Still Shows Uranium Exposure Today, Decades After Atomic Age Mining.”

Colorado Public Radio. Accessed June 7, 2020. https://www.cpr.org/2019/10/08/navajo-nation-still-showsuranium-exposure-today-decades-after-cold-war-mining/.

58

Jasmine Owens

tific

59

Threat Analysis on Small Industrial Radiological Equipment Rayna Celeste Rogers

Background

60

Existing Responses The The The

Policy Recommendations These ffi

Though

1

“NRC: Regulation of Radioactive Materials,” accessed May 5, 2020, https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/radiation/ protects-you/reg-matls.html.

2

“A Secret Group Easily Bought the Raw Ingredients for a Dirty Bomb – Here in America,” Center for Public Integrity, accessed April 30, 2020, https://publicintegrity.org/national-security/a-secret-group-easily-bought-the-rawingredients-for-a-dirty-bomb-here-in-america/.

61

Rayna Rogers

62

The Global Nuclear Order: Present Challenges and Future Disruptions Sylvia Mishra

1

“The Acheson-Lilienthal & Baruch Plans, 1946�, Office of the Historian. https://history.state.gov/ milestones/1945-1952/baruch-plans

63

Waning Arms Control:

2

Reif, Kingston. “States Clash on Disarmament at UN”, Arms Control Today, December 2014. https://www. armscontrol.org/act/2014-12/news/states-clash-disarmament-un

3

Sherwood -Randall, Elizabeth. “The Age of Strategic Instability: How Novel Technologies Disrupt the Nuclear Balance”, Foreign Affairs, July 21, 2020, September/October 2020 Issue. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ russia-fsu/2020-07-21/age-strategic-instability

4

“Strategic Arms Limitations Talk/Treaty (SALT) I and II”, Office of the Historian. https://history.state.gov/ milestones/1969-1976/salt

5

Heuss, Christian. “Decision to Defy Missile Treaty Sends Dangerous Message, Panofsky says”, Stanford Report, January 30, 2002. https://news.stanford.edu/news/2002/january30/panofsky-130.html

6

Hanson, Marianne. “Arms Control or Out of Control?”, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, June 15, 2020. https://www. lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/arms-control-or-out-control

64

Integration of Nuclear Weapons & Emerging Technologies and the Changing WMD practices and norms:

7

Pifer, Steven. “Unattainable Conditions for New START Extension?”, Brookings Institute, July 1, 2020. https://www. brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/07/01/unattainable-conditions-for-new-start-extension/

8

Mehta, Aaron. “Trump’s New Nuclear Weapon Has Been Deployed”, DefenseNews, February 4, 2020. https://www. defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/trumps-new-nuclear-weapon-has-been-deployed/

9

For a detailed discussion on factors challenging the credibility of ‘classical’ nuclear deterrence, see Ward Wilson, “The Myth of Nuclear Deterrence”, The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 15, No. 3 (2008), pp. 421–39; and also, Maria Rost Rublee, “Nuclear Deterrence Destablized”, in Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century, (Chatham House, April 2020)

10 Acton, James. “Escalation through Entanglement: How the Vulnerability of Command-and-Control Systems Raises the Risks of an Inadvertent Nuclear War,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Summer 2018), pp. 56 99 11 Lieber, Kier and Press, Daryl. “The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and The Future of Nuclear Deterrence,” International Security, Vol. 41, No. 4 (Spring 2017), pp. 9 49

65

Nuclear Latency and Managing Countries outside the Nonproliferation Tent:

signific

ffi

The

nflict

The

ff

Policy Recommendations:

12 Fitzpatrick, Mark. “Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan”, IISS, February 2016. https:// www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi/2015/asia39s-latent-nuclear-powers-japan-south-korea-and-taiwan 13 Kemp, Geoffrey. “The Middle East Arms Race: Can it be Controlled?”, Middle East Journal, Vol. 45. No. 3 (Summer 1991), pp 441-456.

14 Wertz, Daniel. “The U.S., North Korea, and Nuclear Diplomacy”, The National Committee on North Korea, October 2018. https://www.ncnk.org/resources/briefing-papers/all-briefing-papers/history-u.s.-dprk-relations

66

15 Saalman, Lora. “China and the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review”, The Carnegie Papers, February 2011. https:// carnegieendowment.org/files/china_posture_review.pdf

67

Sylvia Mishra

68

Avoiding the Negative Impacts of AI-Enabled Automation on the United States’ Nuclear Command, Control and Communications System Liza Arias

1

Lowther, A. (2019, October 04). The Big and Urgent Task of Revitalizing Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications. Retrieved July 18, 2020, from https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/the-big-and-urgent-task-ofrevitalizing-nuclear-command-control-and-communications/.

2

Though there is no universally agreed upon definition, AI in this paper refers to the scientific field concerned with algorithms and consisting of several sub-disciplines. It will be categorized as an enabling, rather than a stand-alone technology.

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Recommendations

3

Boulanin, Vincent. “AI & Global Governance: AI and Nuclear Weapons - Promise and Perils of AI for Nuclear Stability.” AI & Global Governance: AI and Nuclear Weapons - Promise and Perils of AI for Nuclear Stability -United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, December 7, 2018. https://cpr.unu.edu/ai-global-governance-aiand-nuclear-weapons-promise-and-perils-of-ai-for-nuclear-stability.html.

4

Roberts, Adam. “Law, Lawyers, and Nuclear Weapons.” Review of International Studies 16, no. 1 (1990): 75–84. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260210500112653.

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5

Lowther, Adam, and Curtis McGiffin. “America Needs a ‘Dead Hand.’” War on the Rocks, August 16, 2019. https:// warontherocks.com/2019/08/america-needs-a-dead-hand/.

6

Thompson, Clive. Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World. S.l.: Penguin Books, 2020.

71

Liza Arias

72

New START’s Last Stand: The Fiscal and Strategic Tradeoffs of Losing Nuclear Diplomatic Relations Between the United States and Russia Sumaya Malas

Executive Summary

Background:

1

Roser, Max, and Mohamed Nagdy. “Nuclear Weapons.” Our World in Data, August 6, 2013. https://ourworldindata. org/nuclear-weapons; FAS. “FAS Nuclear Notebook.” Federation Of American Scientists, n.d. https://fas.org/ issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/.

2

“The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions,” November 27, 2019. https://crsreports.congress.gov/ product/pdf/R/R41219

3

U.S. Department of State, Annual Report on Implementation of the New Start Treaty, Washington, DC, January 2018, https://www.state.gov/annual-report-on-implementation-of-the-new-start-treaty-2018/

4

Ibid.

5

Ibid.

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6

“U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues” Congressional Research Service, January 3, 2020. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33640

7

“The Case for Extending New START | Arms Control Association.” Arms Control Association, n.d. https://www. armscontrol.org/events/2020-01/case-extending-new-start.

8

“Monitoring and Verification in Arms Control.” Congressional Research Service, December 23, 2011. https:// crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41201.

9

Ibid.

10 Gleason, Michael P, and Luc H Riesbeck. “Noninterference with National Technical Means: The Status Quo Will Not Survive.” Aerospace Corporation, 2020. https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Gleason_ NTM_20200114.pdf.

11 “Monitoring and Verification in Arms Control.” Congressional Research Service, December 23, 2011. https:// crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41201.

12 CNA. “Nuclear Arms Control without a Treaty? Risks and Options After NEW START.” CNA, March 2019. https:// www.cna.org/research/NAC. 13 “Monitoring and Verification in Arms Control.” Congressional Research Service, December 23, 2011. https:// crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41201.

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Opportunity Costs and Sunken Resources in Intelligence Spending

Implications for U.S. Nuclear Modernization

14 “New START: Security Through 21st-Century Verification.” Arms Control Association, n.d. https://www. armscontrol.org/act/2010-09/new-start-security-through-21st-century-verification 15 Ibid 16 CNA. “Nuclear Arms Control without a Treaty? Risks and Options After NEW START.” CNA, March 2019. https:// www.cna.org/research/NAC 17 DeVine, Michael E. “Intelligence Community Spending: Trends and Issues,” Congressional Research Service, November 6, 2019. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R44381.pdf

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Time Constraints and Alliance Management

18 “Approaches for Managing the Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2017 to 2046.” Congressional Budget Office, October 31, 2017. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53211.

19 Kristensen, Hans M. “US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead.” Federation Of American Scientists, January 29, 2020. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2020/01/w76-2deployed/.

20 “Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2019 to 2028.” Congressional Budget Office, January 24, 2019. https:// www.cbo.gov/publication/54914.

21 Kimball, Daryl G., and Shannon Bugos. “A New Nuclear Deal? Start with New START.” Defense One, December 5, 2019. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/12/new-nuclear-deal-start-new-start/161715/.

22 “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Daily Briefing Online on February 12, 2020,” n.d. https://www. fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1743902.shtml.

23 “Macron Says ‘Europeans Cannot Remain Spectators’ in New Arms Race.” Yahoo! News, February 7, 2020. https://

76

news.yahoo.com/macron-says-europeans-cannot-remain-spectators-arms-race-114003436.html.

Policy Recommendations Executive Action:

Legislative Action:

77

Sumaya Malas

field nflict

78

Democratizing U.S. Policy Debate on North Korea Jessica J. Lee

1

“Our Message to U.S. is Clear: Ri Son Gwon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPRK,” KCNA, June 12, 2020.

2

“Joint Statement of President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit,” White House, June 12, 2018.

3

“Chief Negotiators Advice: Next Steps on North Korea,” online conversation hosted by International Crisis Group featuring Ambassador Christopher Hill, Ambassador Robert L. Galluci, Ambassador Glyn Davies, Ambassador Chun Yung-woo, and Duyeon Kim, June 15, 2020, https://www.crisisgroup.org/event-recordings.

79

ssifi

ffi The

ffi

The Tho

fin

This

Th

4

The Quincy Institute reviewed hearings conducted by the following committees from 2017 to June 12, 2020: Senate Armed Services Committee, House Armed Services Committee, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, House Financial Services Committee, and Senate Banking Committee.

5

Paul K. Lee, “U.S.-North Korea Divided Families,� National Committee on North Korea, May 2020, https://www.ncnk. org/resources/briefing-papers/all-briefing-papers/u.s.-north-korea-divided-families#footnote2_km4xujt.

80

6

For the purpose of this article, the following were considered to be national security committees: House and Senate Armed Services Committees, House and Senate Foreign Affairs Committees, House and Senate Intelligence Committees, and House and Senate Committees on Homeland Security.

7

“U.S. Voters’ Hopes on North Korea Hit New High Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Confidence in Trump on N. Korea Grows, But Still Short,” Quinnipiac University Poll, March 21, 2018, https://poll.qu.edu/ images/polling/us/us03212018_uhlp41.pdf/.

8

64 Percent Of U.S. Voters Say Trump Committed A Crime, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; President Gets Mixed Grades For North Korea, March 5, 2019, https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2603.

9

“With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, February 26, 2020.

81

Jessica Lee

The

82

influence cific

ofit

China’s Lack of Participation in Arms Control Negotiations Increases the Risk of Armed Conflict in the Indo-Pacific Region Jessica Gott

Opaqueness of China’s Nuclear Program

1

Nuclear Threat Initiative, China nuclear arsenal estimates, last updated April 2020, https://www.nti.org/learn/ countries/china/

2

The Center for Strategic and International Studies China Power Project. “How is China Modernizing its nuclear forces?” June 18, 2020. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-nuclear-weapons/

83

nflict

Mistrust of China’s No First Use (NFU) Policy ff

eff

cific

ffi

3

U.S. White House, “United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China” last access 18 June, 2020. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republicof-China-Report-5.24v1.pdf

4

U.S. DoD, 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. https://dod.defense.gov/News/ SpecialReports/2018NuclearPostureReview.aspx

5

Keoni Everington. “U.S. Senator introduces Taiwan Defense Act” Taiwan News. June 12, 2020. https://www. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3946567

6

Keoni Everington. “U.S. Senator introduces Taiwan Defense Act” Taiwan News. June 12, 2020. https://www. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3946567

7

Seth Cropsey. “Can we keep our ‘grey zone’ edge over our enemies?” The Hill. June 16, 2020. https://thehill.com/ opinion/national-security/502862-can-we-keep-our-grey-zone-edge-over-our-enemies?utm_source=&utm_ medium=email&utm_campaign=30760&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

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Lack of transparency surrounding China’s fielding ofdelivery systems

.

“China’s navy has put 2 new nuclear-powered ballistic-missile subs into service.” South China Morning Post. May 1, 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-navy-2-nuclear-powered-ballistic-missilesubs-in-service-2020-4

9

Ishaan Tharoor. “The Drums of war in Asia grow louder”. The Washington Post. June 17, 2020. https://www. washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/17/china-india-tensions-north-south-korea/

10 Jessica Gott, “India Lacks a Credible and Adequate Nuclear Employment Strategy.” On the Horizon, A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation (15-25). Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues.

February 2019. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/190219_PONI_OnTheHorizon_ WEB_v3.pdf#page=22 11 Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda (2020) Indian nuclear forces, 2020, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 76:4, 217225, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2020.1778378

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China’s concerns surrounding US Missile Defense

Conclusion and Recommendations for US Policy

Recommendation

12 Bonnie Jenkins. “A United States Strategy on Nuclear Weapons Arms Control and Disarmament.” Policy Papers by Women of Color no.1. (15-16) https://www.wcaps.org/ 13 Robert Gallucci. “Prospects for China Jointing Arms Control Negotiations” Interview by Jessica Gott. June 10, 2020.

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Jessica Gott

Officer

87

Resuscitating the Treaty on Open Skies April Arnold & Takiva Pierce

Executive Summary

Scope of the Problem

1

Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. https://www.state.gov/on-the-treaty-on-open-skies/, 2020.

2

United States. Congress. National Defense Authorization Act For Fiscal Year 2020, Section 1234(a) : United States Participation in Open Skies Treaty. https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/s1790/BILLS-116s1790enr.pdf, 2020.

3

Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Eliot Engel. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/_cache/files/4/ e/4e40c643-e16c-48a1-b659-56829784ec42/406F3B8C8449002D5B909981E306B67B.5-28-2020-hfac-demletter-to-pompeo-on-ost-all-sigs-.pdf, 2020.

4

Reif, Kingston and Shannon Bugos. “US to Withdraw from Open Skies Treaty.� https://www.armscontrol.org/ act/2020-06/news/us-withdraw-open-skies-treaty, June 2020.

5

Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. https://www.state.gov/on-the-treaty-on-open-skies/, 2020.

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Incorporate Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) into Open Skies Implementation

Expand the Open Skies Treaty to the Indo-Paci ic

6

Foreign Policy. Robert Dalso, Michael Jonsson, Christopher Berglund. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/07/ dont-believe-the-russian-hype-a2-ad-missiles-sweden-kaliningrad-baltic-states-annexation-nato/, 2020.

7

Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-clear-decision-on-open-skies-11590103277, 2020.

8

SP Aviation. Air Marshall (Retd.) Anil Chopr (Indian Air Force). http://www.sps-aviation.com/story/?id=1278, 2013.

9

UN Institute for Disarmament Research. Pรกl Dunay et al. p. 192. https://www.unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/ open-skies-a-cooperative-approach-to-military-transparency-and-confidence-building-319.pdf, 2004.

10 AMA Journal of Ethics. Humanitarian Uses of Drones and Satellite Imagery Analysis: The Promises and Perils. Vol. 17, No. 10. Amos Litchman, Mohit Nair. p. 932. https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/humanitarian-usesdrones-and-satellite-imagery-analysis-promises-and-perils/2015-10, 2015.

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11 Japan Times. Putin says Japan’s military cooperation with U.S. is getting in the way of peace talks with Russia. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/07/national/politics-diplomacy/putin-says-japans-militarycooperation-u-s-getting-way-peace-talks-russia/, 2019.

12 Negotiation Journal. Jonathan Tucker. Interagency Bargaining and International Negotiation: Lessons from the Open Skies Treaty Talks. pgs. 282-283. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1571-9979.1996. tb00101.x, 1996.

13 National Geographic. Alexandra Genova. Two Nations Disputed These Islands For 300 Years. https://www. nationalgeographic.com/travel/destinations/asia/south-korea/history-dispute-photos-dodko-rocks-islands/, 2018.

14 Deutsche Welle. Japan and Russia accuse one another of dangerous military buildup. https://www.dw.com/en/ japan-and-russia-accuse-one-another-of-dangerous-military-buildup/a-48980407, 2019.

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April Arnold Th

Takiva Pierce

91