Dairy Farming into the Future

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FEATURE SUPPLEMENT 25

www.age.co.nz Thursday, June 23, 2022

2022DAIRY FA R M I N G INTO THE FUTURE

Strong global dairy prices are expected to result in a record high farmgate milk price

Record high farmgate milk price predicted A record high farmgate milk price is likely this season, says the Ministry for Primary Industries in its latest six monthly report Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries June 2022. Strong global dairy prices are expected to result in a record high farmgate milk price and strong dairy farm proÿ tability this season, the report says. New Zealand’s all-company average milksolids payout for the 2021/22 season is forecast to be $9.30 per kilogram of milksolids. This would be the highest farmgate milk price on record, bettering the previous highest farmgate milk price in 2013/14 by $0.83 per kilogram of milksolids. The timing of this payout is crucial due to the challenges that dairy farmers are facing, the report says. These include regulatory compliance costs, constraints around labour availability and, most importantly, increasing input costs, especially feed and fertiliser costs. Despite the high and rising input costs, dairy farm proÿ tability is estimated to be strong this season, the report says. For a modelled average dairy farm producing 169,400 kilograms of milksolids in 2021/22, the $9.30 milk price will o° set the impacts of rising input costs and result in

operating proÿ ts of around $3.32 per kilogram of milksolids. This is an estimated increase of $0.70 per kilogram of milksolids over the previous season. It is important to note that, despite the milk price increasing by over $1.50 per kilogram of milksolids, operating proÿ ts are likely to have increased by only $0.70, the report says. The high payout is likely to enable farmers to pay down debt and make investments needed for improving on-farm productivity and sustainability. Next season’s farmgate milk price is forecast to be lower but still at elevated levels. This is due to an expected decline in prices of the main reference dairy commodities that inform the milk price. The farmgate milk price for the 2022/23 season is forecast to be in the range of $7.90 to $8.90 per kilogram of milksolids. As input costs are likely to continue increasing, the lower forecast payout puts greater pressure on farm proÿ tability next season. In response, farmers are likely to have a strong focus on controlling costs and be extra cautious with their expenses next season. The full report can be found at https://www. mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economicintelligence/situation-and-outlook-for-primaryindustries/

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