Enrollment Cliff

Wendy and i were enjoying dinner with a Wabash alumnus and his spouse not long ago, and they asked me, “What do you worry about most at the College?” I think they were surprised both by how quickly I gave my response and that the issue I identified was something they hadn’t heard of—the demographic cliff.

The demographic cliff refers to the abrupt drop in the U.S. birth rate following the 2007–08 financial crisis, a decrease that has not yet rebounded. All of higher education knows about the demographic cliff because it signals a 15% drop in the number of high school graduates beginning in 2026. Following a period of stagnant enrollments and pandemic disruption, colleges and universities, including Wabash, are now facing the first sustained enrollment drop since World War II.

I have been thinking about—some of my colleagues would say obsessing over—the demographic cliff since 2018 when Carleton College Professor of Economics Nathan Grawe published “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.” At that time, we had already begun experiencing a decline in students enrolling in Indiana’s colleges and universities. Grawe’s book showed clearly that while we would see a national decline in students entering college, the effect was going to play out differently across the country.

The bad news for Wabash is that the upper Midwest, along with New England, will face the steepest drops, with 2026 bringing a dramatic acceleration of existing troubling trends. With the highest concentration of liberal arts colleges located in the regions with the largest declines, it is clear the already competitive environment for students is going to get much tougher.

The French philosopher Auguste Comte is said to be the first to claim, “Demography is destiny.”

There is certainly some truth to that statement. I often point out there is nothing I can do to increase the number of second graders—the students who will matriculate to Wabash as we celebrate our bicentennial in 2032. But we can absolutely act to avoid the fate of other small colleges by taking advantage of our resources and executing a data-driven enrollment strategy.

We started this effort almost 10 years ago. Our first tactic was to work to increase retention and graduation rates. Holding on to the students who matriculate allows us to maintain enrollment without sacrificing selectivity. Our faculty and staff have designed and implemented numerous student success initiatives, such as the Wabash Liberal Arts Immersion Program (WLAIP), that have moved our graduation rates to new heights.

The next move was to expand our recruiting territories to new targeted markets. Grawe’s research, based on a combination of census and survey data, shows geography has dramatic effects both on demographics and on college choice. At Wabash, we have used a combination of demographic trends, student mobility (willingness to travel out of state), competition from peer colleges, and strength of our alumni network to identify Chicago, Texas, and Arizona as locations for remote admissions officers.

Finally, we are doubling down on philanthropy so we can address broad concerns about affordability and still maintain our historic commitment to provide a transformative education to young men with limited resources. The Giant Steps Campaign has added more than 100 new endowed funds—the greatest number of those for scholarships—and the generosity of countless donors is allowing us to enroll young men for whom Wabash is an option only because of your support.

New England: -32,385 (-19%)

East North Central: -90,274 (-17%)

Middle Atlantic: -44,710 (-10%)

Pacific: -54,061 (-9%)

East South Central: -16,450 (-8%)

South Atlantic: 4,860 (1%)

West North Central: 8,922 (4%)

Mountain: 12,364 (5%)

West South Central: 68,648 (16%)

At Wabash, we are working hard to dispute Comte’s claim that demography is our destiny. The strategic decisions we have made, coupled with the support of our nationally recognized alumni network, have positioned us well to respond to population decline and geographic shifts. None of these things are easy, but as we like to say, it will be worth it.

Scott Feller | President fellers@wabash.edu