The Met Office at RAF Northolt

Summary of the Meteorological Winter: During the current Meteorological Winter (DEC 2022-FEB 2023), we have experienced relatively benign conditions at RAF Northolt. Where we would usually see named low pressure systems barraging the UK from the North Atlantic, we have been “plagued” by high pressure for most of the winter. These areas of high pressure, usually centred to the south or east of the UK, have provided mostly settled conditions. As a result of persistent high pressure, weather fronts have either been blocked or drastically weakened upon their passage across the UK. These settled conditions have allowed for periods of clear skies, coupled with light winds and cold overnight temperatures – a perfect recipe for mist, fog, and freezing fog. This winter has by no means always been settled, with snow observed during early December as well as successive days of strong winds.

Named storms – have there been any?

Other than Storm Otto, named by the Danish Meteorological Institute on Feb 16th, there have been no named storms from the Met Office during this Meteorological Winter. In contrast, during February 2022 a total of three named storms affected the UK in one week (Dudley, Eunice & Franklin). One of these storms was the ferocious Storm Eunice, which brought a swathe of very strong winds to the southern half of the UK – leading to several Met Office Red Weather Warnings to be issued. Severe storms such as Storm Eunice have a return period of around 20 years, which is what made the event truly exceptional.

What can we expect for the Meteorological Spring?

UK Spring is usually calm and dry, mainly due to the Atlantic losing heat over Autumn and Winter, allowing for fewer impactful low-pressure systems affecting the UK. Average temperatures during the daytime tend to rise with each passing month – though the night-time temperatures tend to remain on the cool side:

On top of this, we can expect daylight hours to increase from 10.5 hours at the start of March to 16.2 hours at the end of May – an average of around +2 hours per month.