PAndemiC Will ChAnge life exPeCtAnCy

>Josian E. Bruno Gómez

COVID-19 is already among the top five causes of death in Puerto Rico

Maricarmen Rivera Sánchez mrivera@elvocero.com @mriverasanchez

The 3,028 people who have died from COVID-19 in Puerto Rico, as of press time, and those who will die before the pandemic ends – will have an impact on demographics of changing life expectancy on the island and in the rest of the world.

Demographer Raúl Figueroa explained that life expectancy was already reduced in the United States by several years due to deaths caused by COVID-19.

In Puerto Rico, he indicated, the Department of Health has not updated the life expectancy age of 79 as the average age that Puerto Ricans live, but he did not rule out that life expectancy will eventually be updated. “Right now, COVID-19 is among the top five causes of death. Since most of the people who are dying are older people, it is not going to have such a strong effect on the future of the population or the workforce. But yes, obviously, there are many of those deaths that could be prevented, but they did happen,” he said. “Now, a little younger people are dying - who are the unvaccinated - and there we are going to have a greater effect on life expectancy.

Of the more than 3,000 people who have died from COVID-19 in Puerto Rico, at least 946 — an estimated 31 percent of the deceased — were over 80 years of age. The Health Department has reported at least 783 people killed by COVID-19 between the ages of 70 to 79 years, and another 576 deaths between 60 and 69 years of age. An estimated 14 percent of the deceased are between 50 and 59 years old and another 6 percent are between 40 and 49 years old.

“Since 2011, Health has not updated the age of 79 as the life expectancy. There may be an effect in lowering the expectation. In the United States we have already seen that life expectancy fell. They divide it by race and have already lowered it for two or three years,” he said, indicating that the number may go up after the pandemic ends and health situations return to “normal.”

Figueroa pointed out that another factor in the number of deaths is that many people stopped going to hospitals and medical appointments for fear of contagion, which caused some deaths that could have been prevented.

“In Puerto Rico, people die of chronic and degenerative diseases. This (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is among the leading causes of death and you have to work hard so that this does not happen because this is going to last for several years and you have to work so that people understand that this is going to last a few years, “ he warned.

Hope the Numbers Go Down

Marcos López Casillas, research manager for the Puerto Rico Public Health Trust, said that if the measures that have been taken on the island do not change, the COVID-19 numbers should continue to decrease. Although days with deaths in the double digits could be reported, his expectation is that these numbers will start to decline again. The positivity rate of the coronavirus, which had already exceeded 11 percent on the island, is now at 7.1 percent, according to government figures.

“It is a relatively high positivity [rate], but we have been going down because we were at 11 percent. As we have cases in the vulnerable population - which is those over 60 years of age - if these people arrive at the hospital and enter intensive care, it is likely that they will turn into deaths,” he said. “But hospitalizations are going down and that’s a good thing. The deaths tomorrow may return to 10 or 15 because we have 100 people in intensive care.”

The positivity rate, said López, is decreasing slowly and responds to the continuing vaccination efforts and restrictive measures. As the positivity rates go down, so too will hospitalizations and deaths, he noted.

Long Wait for Solar Net Metering Affecting Customers

Thousands do not receive credit for the surplus energy they produce

Ileanexis Vera Rosado ivera@elvocero.com @iverarosado

Over 6,000 cases of residences and small businesses are pending approval for net metering, which prevents them from accessing credits for exporting excess energy to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) network, now operated by LUMA Energy.

The delay does not comply with the Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act, which promulgates the approval on or before 30 days from when the solar panel system is located on a property. The situation has caused companies that install photovoltaic systems to file claims with the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau (PREB) to protect their customers, and others are preparing to make their own. Entrepreneurs assured that the situation discourages the law’s expectation of generating 40 percent renewable energy by 2025. Currently, only 4 percent of the island’s energy is obtained through renewable sources.

While the net metering cases are not approved, the transmission network can already transmit the surplus energy produced in homes and businesses, and LUMA collects it from customers. Alfonso Baretty, director of Grid Transformation at LUMA Energy, acknowledged the delay but said that they have been expediting what they received from PREPA.

“On June 1, 2021, we found 8,000 cases pending net measurement. This is not a static process, as we continue to receive cases every day and the total continues to increase. Right now we are averaging about 1,000 cases per month,“ Baretty said. He explained that when LUMA took over PREPA’s operation, the approval took between 175 to 180 days, and they have already reduced it to 50 days, which is still 20 days above what is stipulated by law. In addition, in the May-July quarter, LUMA only had interference in the last two months, noting that they managed to activate 28 percent more accounts than PREPA was able to manage in its best quarter.

In the Puerto Rico Solar Energy and Storage Association, the head of public policy - Javier Rúa - said that he is concerned that the situation slows the advance of renewable energy, and confirmed that there are complaints presented before the PREB by Windmar and Solar Maximum. “Before Hurricane Maria, some 9,000 solar panel systems had been installed on the island. Today, that number already reaches 25,000 systems, equivalent to an increase of 178 percent,” Rúa explained, insisting that they need the benefit of net measurement.

PREB Associate Commissioner Ferdinand Ramos confirmed the existence of the complaints and pointed out that since they are under evaluation, he cannot reveal details. He reported that there was a hearing on Aug. 16 in which LUMA accepted that there were over 7,000 unattended interconnection requests. He added that the company has promised “to catch up” in the next three months, serving some 3,000 requests per month. According to the law, if the non-compliance with the approval continues in 30 days, the PREB can issue fines to LUMA of up to $1,000 per day.

The Puerto Rico Solar Energy and Storage Association estimated that some 25,000 solar panel systems have been installed on the island. >Courtesy

Significant Delay

Another company that is considering filing a complaint with the PREB is Verdifica, which designs electrical infrastructure for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Its president, Gabriel Rivera, assured that so far this year they have not approved a net measurement for any of their clients. “We file all the documents on the agency’s website, but we are not provided with any effective information that allows us to know the status of our application. There is a regulation, but they are not following it. Right now I have about 20 projects that have not been approved. Today it is easier to assemble the complete project from the plans to the installation than to obtain the approval of LUMA, which is affecting companies,” Rivera affirmed.

Sunlight Technology is in a similar situation, and its sales manager - William Rivera - pointed out that the company has clients with net metering requests for a year. He argued that the situation is worrisome and that customers cannot obtain the legislated incentive. “Unfortunately, everything translates into not achieving the net measurement, in the face of a reality where only 15 percent of those who have a renewable energy system will be able to achieve it because the island does not have a network that supports 100 percent of homes or businesses that adopt photovoltaic systems,” Rivera said.

A container ship leaves the Port of New York and New Jersey in Elizabeth, N.J. >AP/Seth Wenig, file

Massive Jump in International Freight Rates Impacts Puerto Rico

Need to rethink cabotage laws and risks in the global context

THE WEEKLY JOURNAL Staff

The dramatic increase in international maritime freight rates, which was triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, should force a rethinking of cabotage laws and the issue of food selfsufficiency in Puerto Rico. That’s the assessment of Estudios Técnicos in the firm’s latest publication of ETI Trends.

“Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, maritime cargo freight rates have increased dramatically. For example, from Asia to the United States they have increased by 1,065 percent and from Europe to the United States by 238 percent between March 2020 and August 2021. However, in Puerto Rico, this excessive increase has not had the impact that it has had in other places. The freights charged by companies that bring maritime cargo from the United States to Puerto Rico, which operate under the Jones Act (cabotage), have not increased and their service has not undergone substantial changes,” according to the ETI Trends analysis. The report specified that Puerto Rico did experience an impact from increases in cargo arriving from other destinations, mostly from Europe and China, though these represent a small proportion of the total cargo that reaches Puerto Rico. The cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to the United States has risen from $1,502 to $17,507 since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. From Europe, the cost has increased from $1,754 to $5,929. These increases, particularly in shipments from China, have impacted local prices. Puerto Rico obtains direct imports from China of about $1 billion a year, but the island also has imports from China that arrive through the United States. The prices of products that ship to the island directly or indirectly from China have increased as a consequence. As for the reasons behind the increase in ocean freight rates, analysts have cited many possible causes, including a shortage of containers, limits on ship capacity, the skyrocketing demand for products from China, problems with supply chains and the restrictions imposed by the pandemic that have affected cargo handling. The report indicated that there’s no relief in sight in the short-term for these increases. International container shipping rates are expected to remain at high levels in 2022. A recent forecast from Moody’s estimated that they will remain at record levels for the remainder of 2021 and through 2022, “as demand significantly exceeds capacity.”

“What implications does this situation have for Puerto Rico? At the very least, it should stimulate us to think of ways to become more self-sufficient in various products, particularly food. It is evident that it is not possible to achieve total food selfsufficiency, but it is possible to reduce dependence on different products from the exterior, both food and others,” said José Joaquín Villamil, founder and CEO of Estudios Técnicos. On the other hand, he

In fact, explained that this increase in maritime freight rates forces us to rethink assumptions that have been present in the The international maritime-cargo system is not a particularly stable or competitive industry, and that has been reflected in what has happened in the last year with the increase in freight rates, according to the report. discussion on the issue of cabotage, in particular on the operation of the international maritime-cargo system. For example, it is not a particularly stable or competitive industry and that has been reflected in what has happened in the last year. Although the situation with the maritime freight rates has had some repercussions on local consumers, it is no less true that it has raised a flag regarding the risk that an economy like that of Puerto Rico runs, due to changes in the global context. “We need this risk element to always be considered in our economic policies, not just the risk of natural events. The reality is that this has not been the case. Traditionally, we have acted without incorporating risk and without taking the necessary measures to manage it,” Villamil indicated.