10 minute read

Censuses and surveys

Eduardo Burgos-Suazo,

COO of ABEXUS Analytics and Professor at UPRCA

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The Culture of Data: Shifting the Paradigm

In the past years there’s been a rapid growth of digital tools that enable the development of instruments to gather data (surveys, for instance). Although technological democratization is positive, it is essential to recognize the (almost forgotten) science that exists behind the scenes to develop accurate sampling methodologies. While the access to these tools has increased and almost anyone can make up a survey with a few clicks, we are quick to forget that a single statistic is rarely representative of what’s real. After hearing misinformed opinions related to the unfortunate news about Puerto Rico’s 2020 Census and after observing other surveys with multiple methodological mistakes that were erroneously interpreted, I deemed it a favorable occasion to write about the subject.

Censuses and Surveys

Applications of data gathering processes can be traced as far back as the Babylonian civilization with the first hints of what today we call a census. A census can be considered a process of systematically gathering information about every member of a population. By definition, the objective is the full enumeration of a population, not its sampling. Historically, censuses had been used as accurate tools for public administrations to determine multiple elements such as food needs, labor force expectations, population growth, and families living in households (to name a few). The methods to calculate, acquire and record this information in a systematic and scientific manner are highly complex, but also greatly expensive.

On the other hand, surveys have the objective of sampling a population. Surveys provide the ability to examine large groups (population/census) in a costeffective way, using a subset of those groups (samples). One can look at this process as the equivalent of visiting a laboratory where a sample of blood is taken, with the objective of it being representative of an organism’s entirety. And this is where things get interesting. Although at first glance all surveys may seem the same in nature, there is a whole universe of flavors that can be applied to different circumstances. To keep it simple, surveys can use two types of sampling: one that enables a statistical representation of a population (like the example of laboratory testing) and one that is non-probabilistic in nature (their design is more exploratory). The first can be used to accurately derive conclusions about a population, while the second (which is mostly used in online surveys/polling) cannot. Don’t get me wrong, this second type of sampling is very useful in certain research environments; nonetheless, it is not suited to explain entire population characteristics or behaviors. But… why use surveys to generate information if production of digital data is at an all-time high?

Not All Data is Created Equal

One may be asking the need for surveys and all this complicated jargon when worldwide data creation and consumption are expected to reach over 180 zettabytes by 2025 (just for context, 1 zettabyte is equal to one billion terabytes). Most of this data is known as “organic data” because it’s born as a byproduct of individuals interacting with systems (online searches, mouse clicks, number of messages or calls received, times we open social media, hours of YouTube videos seen, etc.). In contrast, survey data (or design data) generates data that was pre-designed and engineered for a specific purpose. It involves creating unbiased questions that are later transformed into standardized questionnaires. These two are different in nature but not mutually exclusive. Further understanding the reality of something will come from merging these two and creating methodologies that enhance both organic and design data, as they work together to yield the most accurate results.

The Bottom Line

It’s hard to believe that surveys have no place in multi-method research. I’m convinced that combining data sources to produce new information not contained in any single source is the future. As I mentioned in a previous column, creativity and statistical robustness can coexist. Unfortunately, one can have all the science, processes, and technological infrastructure, but a data-driven future is not in the hands of protocols or hardware, but in the tradition, values and ethics that feed our CULTURE: the way we do things and why we do them. If one believes that a data-driven future is the way to really assess needs, the first step is to change the values, perceptions, and beliefs concerning the level of priority, respect, and importance this sensitive information should have. Such a slight shift in perspective can make a big difference when it comes to harnessing responsibly sourced data.

I’m convinced that combining data sources to produce new information not contained in any single source is the future.

También vemos a un gobernador altamente activo en la promoción de Puerto Rico como destino de inversión. El gobernador se ve altamente activo en atraer industrias para Puerto Rico, se le nota reuniéndose con cientos de ejecutivos mientras participa de importantes foros en -y particularmente- fuera de Puer-

A ello se suma la implementación del Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) —$612 millones en fondos anuales por diez años ($6,500 por trabajador con ingresos inferiores a $44,000 anuales)— y la implementación del Child Tax Credit (CTC) —$1,500 millones ($3,600 por niño de seis años o menos, y $3,000 de 6 a 17 años por contribuyente)— y el otorgamiento del aumento permanente del Programa Asistencia Nutricional (PAN), que ahora aumenta a unos

La respuesta gubernamental al covid-19, además del enfoque en vacunación sin haber politizado el proceso, es uno de los más grandes aciertos de la administración. Tomar control de la pandemia del covid-19 y relajar las medidas cuando se justifique, y endurecerlas cuando sea necesario como ocurrió durante ómicron, ha sido un gran acierto. La tasa de vacunación se sitúa en de mayor importancia para el Fondo General y ya el Departamento del Tesoro de Estados Unidos otorgó un año de transición adicional a las empresas bajo la Ley 1542010. Dicha ley representa alrededor de $1,700 millones anuales al erario. Resulta apremiante proteger la base contributiva que representan estas empresas. La clave no es ver más impuestos; la idea debe enfocarse en migrar lo que produce el impuesto de la Ley 154 a otro tipo de impuesto, que sean similares en recaudo y a la vez pueda ser acreditable por las empresas a su tributación federal; así se minimiza la pérdida de empresas y empleos. Falta consenso en materia contributiva. La falta de establecer un sistema holístico que alivie la política pública del gobierno en todos los temas de índole contributivo y con la realidad económica del País, puede provocar una mayor presión inflacionaria.

Riesgos que impactarán la economía:

Reducción en el ingreso por la terminación de las ayudas relacionadas a la pandemia.

Los altos niveles de inflación están afectando a todos los consumidores, afectando sus ya ajustados presupuestos, e impacta a todos los micro y pequeñas empresas mayoritariamente. Los cambios en la política monetaria del Banco de la Reserva Federal, el cual ya aumentó 25 puntos base, y se estima que ahora en mayo aumente otros 50 puntos base, lo que encarecerá los costos de créditos comerciales y del consumidor.

La disminución de la población de Puerto Rico es motivo de gran preocupación, ya que la tasa de mortalidad hoy día es más alta que la de natalidad. Se proyecta que la población para 2025 ronde los 3.1 millones de acuerdo con la encuesta de la Comunidad del Censo federal.

/ Wednesday, August 24, 2022 11

The globalization of manufacturing has been one of the most severe impacts on the U.S. economy, affecting hundreds of thousands of lives, cities, ghost towns, and chaos. Suppose you want to see firsthand what I am referring to; just take a driving tour from N.Y. State, stopping in Pennsylvania,

Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, or Illinois. You will notice in this driving tour that in most of these states, the manufacturing sites have been gentrified, and now some of those grand buildings are apartments, senior residences, pricey lofts, and rows of restaurants and bars.

However, upon closer inspection, you will also notice that thousands of buildings that housed factories of all kinds have not been renovated. Some are beautiful, splendid buildings that created thousands of jobs, supporting families and communities, sponsored sports teams, little leagues, football teams, girl and boy scouts, and bowling leagues.

These old abandoned buildings are part of the all-in-one, or vertically integrated philosophy that once dominated U.S. and Puerto Rico manufacturing.

Companies such as Ford, GM, Bethlehem Steel, GE, and many others dominated the landscapes and provided robust jobs.

Since many companies and manufacturing plants have uprooted with jobs lost to China, India, and other nations in the Asia Pacific region, the US became the leading job creator in most countries, costing millions of jobs to American workers.

Some of the companies that manufacture in the U.S. include: Airstream, Boeing, Gorilla Glue, L.L. Bean, Louisville Slugger, New Balance, Pilgrims’ Pride, and Sherwin-Williams.

As manufacturing transformed in the U.S., the low-skill and labor-intensive plants were replaced by high-skill jobs.

The best proof is that BMW, Honda, Nissan, and Tesla have built some of the most innovative and productive plants in the U.S. and relied on U.S. manufacturing professionals to lead the way.

The U.S. has not realized that as a nation, we have some of the best advantages that no country has ever had. Consider the following: 1. The U.S. is the most innovative nation in the world. 2. The U.S. has a reliable rule of law. 3. The U.S. has the best and most dominant military in the world and will have it as long as our economy is the best in the world. 4. The U.S. benefits from strong, peaceful neighbors in Canada and Mexico. 5. The U.S. has all the food and energy we will ever need. 6. The U.S. has the best universities, educating most of the world’s leaders. 7. The U.S. workers have an exceptional work ethic. While there are likely more benefits, these seven, in my opinion, are the most important. Considering these issues for a minute; most of the manufacturing transformations took a big hit during the pandemic, which showed clear disadvantages of having all the critical manufacturing concentrated in the far-east. Just consider this fact: since the pandemic began in March 2020, some two and a half years ago, the world is still dealing with these pandemic-created issues: • Global manufacturing disruptions, • Supply-chain bottlenecks • Port Closings and High transportation costs • Shrinking inventories • Massive consumer demand The globalization of U.S. manufacturing to lowcost countries in the far-east has worsened most of the problems mentioned above. The U.S. and Puerto Rico realize the need for de-globalization, or re-shoring critical industries first as a matter of National Security and, most importantly, to prevent these supply chain disruptions. One of the most promising initiatives that have the potential to benefit not only the U.S. but also

Francisco Rodríguez-Castro President and CEO of Birling Capital Advisors, LLC. National Security and de-globalizing manufacturing is the new strategy

Francisco RodríguezCastro

>frc@birlingcapital. com La ayuda no puede esperar Puerto Rico is the CHIPS act. The CHIPS Act emphasizes domestic semiconductor production as part of a broader trend focusing on national security, supply chain después de un desastre. resilience, and economic independence. The bill provides incentives, tax credits, and subsidies to the tune of $53 billion to increase U.S. semiconductor production and research. Companies such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm, and Micron, along with others, will significantly benefit. Most of the world’s products, from cars to vacuum cleaners, and most anything relying on computer chips enhancing the U.S. semi-conductor production, are welcomed news. The straightforward reality of how the US La Cruz Roja Americana Capítulo de Puerto Rico became vulnerable, and trapped in a global supply chain disruption with the additional pressure of geopolitical issues, has been the driving force atiende un promedio de 20 fuegos al mes en la isla. for the US CHIPS Act, a trend that must continue towards other industries. As US CEOs realize the vulnerabilities of the current global supply chain, we will see increased Tu apoyo a la Cruz Roja ayuda a garantizar que estas investments as part of a much broader strategy.

The new strategy combines national security with creating a more resilient supply chain while familias no enfrenten estas emergencias solos. becoming as we were in the past, economically independent of everyone. We must equip all parties with the necessary tools to innovate and integrate all manufacturing efforts for the benefit of a de-globalized US. Dona en:

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