8 minute read
Unconventional economic indicators
Eduardo Burgos-Suazo,
COO of ABEXUS Analytics and Professor at UPRCA
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Unconventional times call for unconventional data
The current socioeconomic and political conditions are highly uncertain. Governments are experiencing considerable instability due to the international conflicts, abnormal supply-chain issues, an atypical job market, the threat of a coming recession and, guess what… inflation is not “transitory” as the FED initially estimated, moreover it has reached a 40 year high in the US. Conventionally, there are a few data sources that assess the state of the market, the relationship between consumers and businesses, and economic growth. Traditionally, if we were to explain current conditions one can point to statistics such as GDP, GNP, Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI), unemployment claims and Consumer
Price Index (CPI) just to name a few. Although such statistics are robust and serve as official constructed tools to gauge parts of the economic environment, they inevitably face some limitations (particularly technological). In the case of the CPI some have argued that it needs a substantive revision, since its last development. Therefore, one must ask if there are complementary, or “unconventional” techniques to assess different components of the economy. It turns out that there are! Let’s take a look. Take for example the “Big Mac Index” created by The Economist in 1986 as a measure to compare currency exchange rates (and yes… we are taking about the burger). It proposes that as Big Macs around the world are relatively the same, contrasting prices in different countries for the burger show the gap in how different currencies are valued. And if you believe this is nonsense, you will be surprised to find the Index in economic textbooks and in more than a few academic studies. Now that we have taken the “unconventional” road, have you ever heard of the measure MUI or the “Men’s Underwear Index”? The theory was exposed by former head of the U.S. Federal
Reserve, Alan Greenspan as a way of detecting possible economic recovery or on the other hand, a coming recession. In simple terms, it states that when men are worried about their finances or economic affairs, they will cut back on buying underwear. When the perception is that economic conditions are improving, it’s one of the first discretionary purchases men tend to make. Imagine how much information one could derive from analyzing consumption patterns in Puerto Rico, given the Island’s commercial culture! Likewise, using mobility datasets one can assess how many “individuals” visit a set of pre-determined locations such as workplaces, groceries stores, recreation, retail stores, among others. This information can be used to examine mobility patters and their relationship with spending habits and beyond. Furthermore, analyzing “key words” search frequencies in web browsers can derive some insights to what consumers are thinking or worried about. As an example, based on Google trends data, searches for the word “inflation” peaked to its highest levels during the week of Jun 12 to Jun 18, 2022, in the U.S. We are in need of a complex (not mechanical) approach to analyze human conduct; thus, we need creative mechanisms to measure analog and digital interactions, and their relationship with the economic system as a whole. Don’t get me wrong, as much as we need creativity we are in greater need of consistent and reliable methodologies that can bring some certainty to uncertain phenomena. Nonetheless, complexity, creativity, and robust statistical analysis can coexist. Of course, none of the outlined “unconventional” statistics are perfect, yet they serve as examples of what is available and allows others to take the opportunity to leave behind personal or professional biases which are purely based on tradition. Organizations should truly embrace all the spectrum of additional data points in a historic moment where unconventional data may be of some use.
Víctor Rodríguez
Public Affairs Specialist (Puerto Rico and the USVI), Social Security Administration
Social Security’s commitment with the LGBTTIQ+ community
June is about to end, a month when the world acknowledged the struggles of the LGBTTQ+ community, and celebrated diversity, love, and respect. On June 26, 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court issued it’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, holding that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry in all states and territories.
We recognize same-sex couples’ marriages in all states. In addition, some states also recognize certain non-marital legal relationships (such as some civil unions and domestic partnerships). This recognition is important to determine entitlement to benefits.
Here are various things you should know about our benefits for same-sex couples: • Marital status is important — For Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands, the union must be formalized with a marriage certificate to qualify for possible benefits. A member of a same-sex couple may be entitled to Social Security benefits when a working spouse retires, becomes disabled, or dies. • Special provision for certain surviving spouses — Following court rulings in two class lawsuits –the Ely Class Action and the Thornton Class Action-, Social Security added a special consideration for some surviving spouses. If you meet all other requirements, Social Security may also pay Social Security may also pay benefits to a widow if the only reason he/she did not meet the minimum required time of marriage was because their state or territory of residence does not recognize the union of same-sex couples.
benefits to a widow who shows that he/she and his/her partner were willing to marry legally, but the only reason they did not follow through on their plans or met the minimum required time of marriage was because their state or territory of residence prohibited same-sex unions. If your partner passed away several years ago, find out about this special provision and our benefits for surviving spouses. • What type of benefits you can receive? — Social Security taxes pay for three kinds of benefits: retirement, disability, and survivors. If you’re entitled to benefits, your spouse and eligible family members might receive benefits, too. • Children may receive benefits — Your children or stepchildren could also be entitled to benefits. • When you apply for benefits is important — Contact us to know the different requirements to qualify to our retirement, disability, dependent, and survivor’s benefits. • Report life changes right away — If you receive Social Security benefits, you should let us know immediately if you move, marry, separate, divorce, or become the parent of a child. Don’t wait until we review your benefits to tell us about any changes. You should report changes right away, so benefits are paid correctly. For more information, please visit our website for same-sex couples at www.ssa.gov/ people/same-sexcouples. You can also read our publication What Same-Sex Couples Need to Know at www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10014.pdf. For more information on Social Security, please call 1-800-772-1213, access www.socialsecurity. gov, or visit your local field office (available at www. ssa.gov/locator).
*The author is a Public Affairs Specialist Social Security Administration.
Pope orders online release of WWII-era Jewish files
The documents contain requests for papal intervention to liberate Jews from concentration camps
Nicole Winfield – The Associated Press
ROME — Pope Francis has ordered the online publication of 170 volumes of its Jewish files from the recently opened Pope Pius XII archives, amid renewed debate about the legacy of its World War II-era pope. The documentation contains 2,700 files of requests for Vatican help from Jewish groups and families, many of them baptized Catholics, so not actually practicing Jews anymore. The files were held in the Secretariat of State’s archives and contain requests for papal intervention to avoid Nazi deportation, to obtain liberation from concentration camps or help finding family members. The online publication of the files comes amid renewed debate about Pius’ legacy following the 2020 opening to scholars of his archives, of which the “Jews” files are but a small part. The Vatican has long defended Pius against criticism from some Jewish groups that he remained silent in the face of the Holocaust, saying he used quiet diplomacy to save lives.
One recent book that cites the newly opened archives, “The Pope at War,” by Pulitzer Prizewinning historian David Kertzer, suggests that the people the Vatican was most concerned about saving were Jews who had converted to
Catholicism, the offspring of Catholic-Jewish mixed marriages or otherwise related to Catholics.
Kertzer asserts that Pius was loath to intervene on behalf of Jews, or make public denunciations of Nazi atrocities against them, to avoid antagonizing Adolf Hitler or Italy’s Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini.
The Vatican’s foreign minister Paul Gallagher said it was hoped that the digital release of the “Jews” files would help scholars with research, but also descendants of those who had requested Vatican help, to “find traces of their loved ones from any part of the world.”
In an article for the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, Gallagher said the files contained requests for help, but without much information on outcomes.
“Each of these requests constituted a case which, once processed, was destined for storage in a documentary series entitled ‘Jews,’” he wrote.
“The requests would arrive at the Secretariat of State, where diplomatic channels would try to provide all the help possible, taking into account the complexity of the political situation in the global context,” Gallagher wrote. He cited one case found in the files: A Jew who was baptized Catholic in 1938, Werner Barasch, who sought help from the pope in 1942 to be freed from a concentration camp in Spain. According to the archives, his request was forwarded to the Vatican embassy in Madrid, but the documentation then went cold.
“As for the majority of requests for help witnessed by other cases, the result of the request was not reported,” Gallagher wrote. “In our hearts we immediately inevitably hope for a positive outcome, the hope that Werner Barasch was later freed from the concentration camp and was able to reach his mother overseas.”
Subsequent online research, including at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, found that Barasch did indeed survive and was able to join his mother in the United States in 1945, Gallagher reported.
In fact,
Some believe Pope Pius XII was loath to intervene on behalf of Jews, or make public denunciations of Nazi atrocities against them, to avoid antagonizing Adolf Hitler.
Pope Pius XII. >AP Photo, File
