Pakistan on Edge

By William Young

Pakistan is currently on the brink. A major non-Nato ally and nuclear-armed state, Pakistan faces a wide array of economic, political, and even environmental challenges that pose a significant threat to its stability. While the Pakistani economy has been in meltdown for much of 2022, the situation continued to deteriorate throughout the first half of 2023. In January, the Pakistani rupee dropped 20% of its value against the American dollar; in February Pakistani officials predicted that inflation could potentially average 33%. Interest rates were increased to 26%, and Pakistan’s credit rating has plummeted, severely impairing its ability to take out much-needed loans. The destructive monsoons of the summer of 2022 did not help either. This economic turbulence has severe human consequences; the Consumer Price Index (a measure of the cost of living in a country) has exploded, while in April, the IMF projected that four million people would fall below the lower middle poverty line ($3.6 a day).

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All the while, this economic turbulence has been accompanied by increasingly tense and violent political conflict, coming to a head with the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. On May 9, 2023, Khan was arrested under corruption charges for allegedly receiving a land bribe worth millions of dollars from Malik Riaz Hussein, a powerful businessman. Due to his poor relationship with the Pakistan Army, it is widely suspected that Khan’s arrest was directed by them. Quickly, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest, some going so far as to breach the Army Headquarters. Several thousand people have been arrested, 8 have been killed, and the Army has been deployed by the government to suppress the rioting. This is of course worrying in itself, but it is also important to understand the major players and their potential implications for the future of global affairs.

Imran Khan is the former Prime Minister of Pakistan and one of the main players in the current crisis. Imran Khan grew up in a privileged upper-middle-class environment and received a world-class education. After attending university in the United Kingdom, Khan became a professional cricket player and was quickly recognized for his talent, thanks in no part to Khan leading Pakistan to victory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup. Needless to say, in Pakistan, Khan was very popular. In retirement, Khan became increasingly interested in philanthropy and politics. In the 1990s, Khan promoted vaccination programs in foreign countries and would go on to found universities in Pakistan, as well as its first cancer hospital. In 1996, Khan formally entered the world of electoral politics by creating his populist centrist party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and was elected to Parliament in 2002. From 2002 onward, Khan has maintained a consistent political philosophy. On the domestic front, Khan is a populist and a nationalist. During his tenure as PM, Khan enacted increased taxes and worked to reform and expand the social welfare system. Meanwhile, Khan attempted (to limited success and public approval) to enact sweeping anti-corruption legislation. While the military largely directs Pakistan’s foreign policy, this has not stopped Khan from having his own, somewhat bizarre vision and direction for Pakistan. Khan is in favor of a peaceful solution to the humanitarian crisis in Kashmir and is against armed conflict with India, but pursues close relations with China, a country that has prepared for war against India for decades. Meanwhile, Khan also pursued warm relations with Russia. Russia is India’s primary supplier of military equipment, much of which is meant to be used against Pakistan at a moment’s notice. However, the keystone of Khan’s foreign policy is his anti-American sentiment. Khan is a major opponent of the War on Terror, appealing to the popular narrative within Pakistan that the United States’ involvement in the region is a threat to the safety of Pakistan. Khan especially capitalized on this after he was ousted by a vote of no confidence, where he maintained that he was removed because of a US plot to keep Pakistan within its sphere of influence. Finally, it is imperative to discuss the troubled relations Khan has with the Pakistan Army, a major force in Pakistan politics. While he did use the backing of the military to become Prime Minister in 2018, relations between Khan and the Army have become increasingly strained. During his premiership, Khan attempted to decrease the military’s budget. He has been one of the rare Pakistani government officials to repeatedly point out that the Army often acts in violation of the laws. He also accused Army Chief Asim Munir of having a key role in his ousting from the PM’s office. Finally, Khan irreparably destroyed any good standing he had with the Army when he accused it of being behind his November 2022 assassination attempt. After his arrest, he would again accuse the Army of being the culprit behind his persecution, claiming that democracy is in the balance. This message is also very popular; many Pakistanis resent the immense power that the military has over Pakistani politics. This populist message appeals to wide swaths of people; Khan has popular, and importantly, fervent support from everyone from young educated urbanites to illiterate and impoverished farmers. He also has a large and powerful support base within the government, including from the Supreme Court. Because of this support, it should come as no surprise that after Khan was ousted by a vote of no confidence, there was public outrage, and after he was arrested for corruption earlier this May, PTI supporters rioted and stormed government buildings.

Opposing Khan, there is the Pakistan Army and current PM Shehbaz Sharif. The Pakistan Armed Forces (primarily the Army, as they will be referred to throughout), is a major player in Pakistani politics and has been for decades. Since independence, the Pakistan Army has assumed total control over government functions (e.g. establishing a junta) three separate times. Its major purpose within the politics of Pakistan is to maintain the status quo and prevent any radical policy shifts. The military itself is also a formidable fighting force. Despite Pakistan being a middle-income country (41st largest economy by nominal GDP), it maintains the sixth largest military on earth and a sizable nuclear stockpile. Regardless of whether it is running the government or not, the Pakistan Army has significant influence over the direction of the Pakistani government. Outside of internal politics, like Imran Khan, the military does have its own set of contradictory foreign policy goals. Under previous administrations, the Pakistan Army’s support for the War on Terror earned Pakistan the distinction of Major Non-NATO Ally from the United States, a designation shared by Israel and Japan. However, the Pakistan Armed Forces are more than happy to purchase advanced Chinese military equipment, and in the case of the JF-17 Thunder fighter jet and VT-4 tank, manufacture it under license. Supported by the Army is the current Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif, 70, is a veteran of Pakistani politics. Within Pakistan, he is generally regarded as a shrewd and effective politician. When Khan faced a vote of no confidence in Parliament in April 2022, Shehbaz was the leader of that charge. Like Khan, Shehbaz paints himself as a reformer. But unlike Khan’s attacks on the elites and military, Shehbaz advocates for cleaning up the dysfunction of Khan. This means patching up the economy and using law-and-order rhetoric. However, like the Army itself, Shehbaz’s main goal is to maintain the status quo. For Shehbaz, this means repairing Pakistan’s relations with the “friendly countries” is a top item. Given Khan’s rhetoric, this likely means that repairing relations with the United States is a top priority. As Shehbaz is part of a wealthy family of industrialists and real estate developers, this could also mean pursuing closer ties with China to help build infrastructure. Finally, on the law and order front, suppressing the ongoing riots from PTI supporters is of the utmost importance. As of 5/15/23, the Army has been deployed to help keep riots under control. There are several potential outcomes to the current situation in Pakistan, some of which could see major shifts in Pakistan’s place in global affairs. The upcoming election for Prime Minister in October, where Shehbaz and Khan will likely be the main contestants, will prove to be a pivotal experience for Pakistan. If Shehbaz wins, Pakistan will realign its foreign policy. Under Shehbaz, Pakistan will continue to maintain balanced relations with the world powers. Pakistan will likely not end its close relationship with China under Shehbaz, however, he will try to warm relations with the

United States that became antagonistic under Khan. However, Shehbaz will continue to face both challenges from the widely popular Khan and PTI, as well as pressure from the failing economy. Ultimately, if Shehbaz remains in power, he will work to maintain a domestic and foreign status quo approved by the military. If Khan is elected Prime Minister, which is the most likely scenario given his party’s popularity, he will likely stick to a more radical version of his policy. Disillusioned with the military, Khan will likely work to control the military if elected, which means reforming it to be under civilian control. This would add a layer of accountability that the Army was previously not subject to. Additionally, Khan will likely be more antagonistic toward the United States. The Pakistan Armed Forces generally wish to keep cordial ties with the US. As Khan believes that the military was behind his ousting, assassination attempt, and arrest, he could draw a connection to the United States. This would in turn further fuel his popular support. He will also steer Pakistan closer to China and Russia while warming relations with India. Khan is also notoriously lax on the Taliban within Pakistan. While this would alienate the United States, tolerating the Taliban in the border regions could prove to be a major destabilizing factor. Finally, there is the military. The military itself is an extra and highly unpredictable variable in this scenario. The military may conduct a coup to retain the status quo, either under the cover of restoring law and order or to overthrow an antagonistic Khan given he is elected this October. Similar to Shehbaz, the military would work to maintain the status quo. This would mean similar foreign policy goals to Shehbaz, but a more extreme domestic policy. If the mili-

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tary were to take power, they would likely crack down on Khan and the PTI to cripple it as a political force. The military would also work to undo the progress made in Indian-Pakistan relations. A military coup could also prove to be a worst-case scenario for Pakistan. If the military were to take power, it would risk becoming a pariah state and having its government seen illegitimate by most of the international community. If this were to happen, there is a risk that Pakistan would be forced into the hands of China, and lose its value as a strategic US ally. Shehbaz is likely Pakistan’s clearest path to long-term stability. Shehbaz is safe: more moderate and less divisive than Khan. Shehbaz’s warm relations with the military are also important. No matter how much Khan may rail against and advocate for civilian control of the military, it still holds a significant stake in Pakistani politics. Shehbaz could be the very thing Pakistan needs to avoid falling into a military junta. Finally, Shehbaz would realign Pakistan’s foreign policy. As stated earlier, he would work to repair relations with the United States and reaffirm its position as an ally, all while maintaining a cooperative and productive relationship with China. In short, continue to play up to both sides. Even so, this is only a prediction of what might happen. Any way you put it, Pakistan will still face an uncertain future.

Works Cited

Al Jazeera. 14 May 2023. Al Jazeera, www. aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/14/ex-pm-imrankhan-calls-for-freedom-protests-across-pakistan. Accessed 16 May 2023.

Baloch, Shah Meer, and Hannah Ellis-Perterson. “Imran Khan Accuses Pakistan’s Military of Ordering His Arrest.” The Guardian, 14 May 2023. The Guardian, www.theguardian.com/ world/2023/may/14/imran-khan-arrest-pakistan-military. Accessed 16 May 2023.

Baloch, Shah Meer, and Hannah Ellis-Petersen. “Pakistan Supreme Court Rules Arrest of Imran Khan Was Illegal.” The Guardian, 11 May 2023, www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/ pakistan-army-deployed-across-country-as-unrest-triggered-by-imran-khan-arrest-continues.

Accessed 20 May 2023.

Bokhari, Farhan, and John Reed. “Imran Khan, the Pakistani Politician Taking on the Army.” Financial Times, 12 May 2023. Financial Times, www.ft.com/content/4a094cf1-e16c-49ec-bbe0079a308f2561. Accessed 20 May 2023.

Butt, Riazat. “In Pakistan Clashes, Khan Showed He Commands Huge Crowds. What’s Driving Them?” Associated Press, 12 May 2023, apnews.com/article/pakistan-imran-khan-supporters-2691f93520bc96e370f1b867fb069ae9.

Accessed 18 May 2023.

Chughtai, Alia. “Who Is Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s New Prime Minister?” Al Jazeera, 9 Apr. 2022. Al Jazeera, www.aljazeera.com/