Monterey County Travel Impacts Report 2023

The Economic Impact of Travel Monterey County 2023 Preliminary Estimates April 2024

PREPARED FOR Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County 2023 Preliminary Estimates

Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau

4/30/2024

PRIMARY RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Avenue Suite 920 Portland, Oregon 97205

Table of Contents Summary................................................................................................................................................................................................

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Direct Travel Impacts / Summary Table ....................................................................................................................

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Direct Travel Impacts / City-Level Summary Table...........................................................................................

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Direct Travel Impacts / Detailed Table ..........................................................................................................................

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Overnight Volume & Average Expenditures...............................................................................................................

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Secondary Impacts………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

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Glossary...................................................................................................................................................................................................

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Methodology........................................................................................................................................................................................

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Monterey County 2023 Preliminary Estimates

Monterey County / Summary Travel Impacts 2023p Post-pandemic growth in travel to Monterey County flattened in 2023. The county welcomed fewer overnight and day visitors compared to 2022, and spending associated with these travelers increased just 0.3%. Despite the slowdown in visitation, employment in the travel industry grew by 11.9% in 2023. As employment responds in a lagged manner to spending, this increase in jobs is attributable to the rapid spending growth of 2021 and 2022.

• Travel spending in Monterey County increased 0.4%, remaining at $3.0 billion in 2023.

• Direct travel-generated employment grew by 1,570 jobs, a 6.2% increase over 2022.

• Direct travel-generated earnings increased to $1.6 billion, a gain of 10.7% compared to 2022.

• Tax receipts generated by travel spending increased to $306.9 million, a gain of 0.7% compared to 2022.

In 2023, travel spending in Monterey County reached $2,963 million, marking a 0.4% rise from the prior year but 8.6% below 2019.

Note: These estimates for Monterey County are subject to revision if more complete data becomes available. Estimates for 2023 are preliminary – thus “2023p.”

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

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Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts Summary Table Avg. Annual % Chg 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023p

2022-2023p 2017-2023p

2,820.2

3,135.6

3,240.5

1,552.5

2,418.8

2,954.8

2,963.0

0.3%

0.8%

1,198.8

1,353.8

1,420.1

1,056.3

610.4

1,447.2

1,602.6

10.7%

5.0%

24,498.0

26,626.0

27,157.0

20,340.0

21,721.0

25,229.0

26,799.0

6.2%

1.5%

250.8

285.4

297.8

183.2

224.2

304.8

306.9

0.7%

3.4%

Local

124.7

146.4

153.5

97.0

129.3

177.1

177.2

0.0%

6.0%

State

126.1

139.0

144.3

86.3

94.8

127.7

129.8

1.6%

0.5%

Spending ($Millions)

Total Earnings ($Millions) Earnings Employment (Jobs) Employment Tax Revenue ($Millions) Total

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percent change calculated on unrounded figures. Employment and earnings estimates include CARES Act support.

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts City-Level Summary Table, 2023p Carmel

Marina

Monterey

Pacific Grove

Salinas

Seaside

Unincorporated Monterey /Other County

215.3

110.7

819.3

123.4

253.8

127.9

1,312.6

2,963.0

116.4

59.9

443.1

66.8

137.3

69.2

710.0

1,602.6

1,947

1,001

7,410

1,116

2,295

1,157

11,872

26,799

Total

22.3

11.5

84.9

12.8

26.3

13.3

136.0

306.9

Local

12.9

6.6

49.0

7.4

15.2

7.6

78.5

177.2

State

9.4

4.8

35.9

5.4

11.1

5.6

57.5

129.8

Spending ($Millions) Total Earnings ($Millions) Earnings Employment (Jobs) Employment

Tax Revenue ($Millions)

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

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Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts Detailed Table

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023p

Destination Spending

2,725.7

3,030.3

3,127.6

1,511.9

2,345.6

2,844.3

2,856.2

Other Travel*

94.6

105.3

113.0

40.6

73.2

110.5

106.8

2,820.2

3,135.6

3,240.5

1,552.5

2,418.8

2,954.8

2,963.0

Direct Travel Spending ($Millions)

TOTAL

Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Millions) Hotel, Motel, STVR

1,964.1

2,214.3

2,280.8

1,145.1

1,736.7

2,055.8

2,044.9

Private Home

172.6

190.6

205.0

71.2

199.7

223.3

229.2

Campground

43.9

46.0

49.6

41.5

53.9

70.3

74.7

Vacation Home

63.3

71.6

73.3

100.7

90.5

93.0

95.3

Day Travel

481.7

507.8

518.8

153.5

264.7

401.7

412.1

2,725.7

3,030.3

3,127.6

1,511.9

2,345.6

2,844.3

2,856.2

TOTAL

Visitor Spending by Type of Commodity Purchased ($Millions) Accommodations

716.0

835.4

879.1

449.2

823.9

985.7

956.4

Food Service

858.6

938.7

966.6

485.0

663.1

800.5

843.0

Food Stores

72.9

76.2

77.7

43.4

69.0

86.2

89.5

Local Tran. & Gas

224.0

260.7

266.7

102.6

174.8

240.3

226.9

Arts, Ent. & Rec.

367.8

392.8

394.0

184.2

260.4

298.9

309.3

Retail Sales

468.8

509.0

519.7

240.7

340.3

403.5

401.4

Visitor Air Tran.

17.5

17.5

23.8

6.9

14.2

29.2

29.7

2,725.7

3,030.3

3,127.6

1,511.9

2,345.6

2,844.3

2,856.2

TOTAL

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement, and convention/trade shows.

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts Detailed Table

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023p

Travel Industry Earnings ($Millions) Accom. & Food Serv.

656.4

743.9

786.1

561.2

337.1

854.2

924.0

Arts, Ent. & Rec.

396.7

438.6

454.5

348.6

194.5

461.3

539.7

Retail**

76.0

85.3

86.4

87.0

47.0

101.8

107.1

Ground Tran.

31.9

46.3

49.4

17.6

23.9

18.5

19.3

Visitor Air Tran.

16.5

17.6

20.1

19.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

Other Travel*

21.3

22.1

23.5

22.3

6.6

9.8

10.7

1,198.8

1,353.8

1,420.1

1,056.3

610.4

1,447.2

1,602.6

TOTAL

Travel Industry Employment (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv.

16,615

17,941

18,160

13,347

14,574

17,021

17,962

Arts, Ent. & Rec.

4,668

5,065

5,359

3,750

4,015

4,908

5,490

Retail**

2,092

2,268

2,217

2,092

2,172

2,183

2,176

Ground Tran.

675

899

977

763

742

892

945

Visitor Air Tran.

132

136

136

118

22

22

23

Other Travel*

316

317

308

270

196

203

203

24,498

26,626

27,157

20,340

21,721

25,229

26,799

TOTAL

Tax Receipts Generated by Travel Spending ($Millions) 124.7

146.4

153.5

97.0

129.3

177.1

177.2

Visitor

88.0

104.4

109.4

53.6

102.5

123.3

121.4

Business or Employee

36.7

42.0

44.1

43.4

26.8

53.9

55.7

126.1

139.0

144.3

86.3

94.8

127.7

129.8

Visitor

91.6

102.8

106.5

50.9

75.7

87.2

87.4

Business or Employee TOTAL

34.4

36.2

37.8

35.4

19.2

40.5

42.4

250.8

285.4

297.8

183.2

224.2

304.8

306.9

Local Tax Receipts

State Tax Receipts

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement, and convention/trade shows.

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

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Monterey County / Overnight Visitor Details Overnight Visitor Volume and Average Expenditure Overnight visitor volume for Monterey County is based on cross-referencing visitor surveys and lodging data. Volume estimates therefore will differ from methodologies that rely solely on visitor surveys. Visitor Spending is a more reliable metric than Visitor Volume in accounting for changes in the travel industry, as it is more closely tied to economic data and lessens the variability from visitor surveys. Day travel estimates are not included because of data limitations.

49% Hotel, Motel, STVR share of overnight person-trips

Average Expenditure for Overnight Visitors, 2023p Party

Person

Length

Party

Day

Trip

Day

Trip

of Stay

Size

Hotel, Motel, STVR

$1,273

$3,295

$389

$1,008

2.6

3.3

Private Home

$160

$562

$76

$267

3.5

2.1

Other Overnight

$122

$362

$45

$133

3.0

2.7

All Overnight

$551

$1,631

$203

$586

3.0

2.8

Overnight Visitor Volume, 2021-2023p Person-Trip (Thousands)

Party-Trips (Thousands)

2021

2022

2023p

2021

2022

2023p

Hotel, Motel, STVR

1,945

2,086

2,030

595

638

621

Private Home

870

861

860

413

409

408

Other Overnight

1,106

1,238

1,282

408

454

470

3,920

4,185

4,171

1,416

1,501

1,498

All Overnight

Person-Nights (Thousands)

Party-Days (Thousands)

2021

2022

2023p

2021

2022

2023p

Hotel, Motel, STVR

5,036

5,401

5,257

1,539

1,651

1,606

Private Home

3,048

3,017

3,011

1,446

1,432

1,429

Other Overnight

3,310

3,660

3,782

1,234

1,354

1,398

11,393

12,078

12,051

4,219

4,437

4,433

All Overnight

Note: Private Home represents visitors staying with friends or family. (Glossary on page 14)

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

Monterey County / Secondary Impacts Total Employment Secondary Direct and Secondary Employment Accommodation & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Trade Transport Professional and Business Services Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Services Other Services Public Administration

0 Direct

10,000 Secondary

Share of Total Employment

13%

Direct Indirect Induced

Accommodation & Food Services 17,962 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 5,490 Trade 2,176 Transport 888 Professional and Business Services 283 Natural Resources and Mining 0 Construction 0 Manufacturing & Utilities 0 Information 0 Financial Activities 0 Education and Health Services 0 Other Services 0 Public Administration 0 All Industries 26,799

443 116 244 124 1,966 16 40 25 139 96 24 200 101 3,534

650 145 853 155 548 20 27 12 64 195 1,096 455 111 4,330

Total 1,093 260 1,097 279 2,514 36 67 37 203 291 1,120 654 212 7,865

Grand Total 19,055 5,750 3,273 1,168 2,797 36 67 37 203 291 1,120 654 212 34,664

Note: Values may not add to totals due to rounding. Employment includes full-time employees, part-time employees, seasonal employees, and proprietors.

10% 77%

Direct

20,000

Industry Group

Indirect

MOST DIRECT JOBS Accommodations & Food Services

MOST SECONDARY JOBS Professional & Business Services

Induced

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

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Monterey County / Secondary Impacts Total Earnings Secondary Direct and Secondary Earnings

Industry Group

Accommodation & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Trade Transport Professional and Business Services Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Services Other Services Public Administration

0 Direct

400 Secondary

Share of Total Earnings

14%

800

1,200

Direct Indirect Induced

Accommodation & Food Services 924.0 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 539.7 Trade 107.1 Transport 19.3 Professional and Business Services 12.4 Natural Resources and Mining 0.0 Construction 0.0 Manufacturing & Utilities 0.0 Information 0.0 Financial Activities 0.0 Education and Health Services 0.0 Other Services 0.0 Public Administration 0.0 All Industries 1,602.6

22.6 8.0 22.6 9.1 159.0 2.4 3.4 3.0 21.3 7.8 1.5 17.6 13.6 291.7

31.4 9.8 55.8 8.4 42.8 2.1 2.2 1.6 5.9 15.0 95.3 32.3 7.3 310.1

Total

54.0 17.8 78.4 17.6 201.8 4.5 5.6 4.5 27.2 22.8 96.8 49.9 20.9 601.8

Grand Total 978.1 557.5 185.5 36.9 214.2 4.5 5.6 4.5 27.2 22.8 96.8 49.9 20.9 2,204.4

Note: Values may not add to totals due to rounding.

13% 73%

Direct

13

Indirect

MOST DIRECT EARNINGS Accommodations & Food Services

MOST SECONDARY EARNINGS Professional & Business Services

Induced

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

Glossary Key Terms Term

Definition

2nd Home

Homes under private ownership for personal use as a seasonal property where a lodging tax is not collected.

Day Travel

A trip that involves non-routine travel of greater than 50 miles to the destination and but no overnight stay in the destination.

Destination Spending

Direct spending made by visitors in a destination. Interchangeable with “Visitor Spending.”

STVR

STVR stands for “short term vacation rental.” The category includes private and semi-private lodging rented by owners or property management companies (e.g., Airbnb & VRBO).

State Taxes

State taxes generated by travel spending.

Local Taxes

City and county taxes generated by travel spending.

Direct Employment

Employment generated by direct travel spending. It includes full-time employees, part-time employees, seasonal employees, and proprietors.

Direct Earnings

Total after-tax net income generated from travel spending. It includes wages and salary disbursements, proprietor income, and other earned income or benefits.

Other Spending

Spending by residents on travel arrangement services and/or spending for convention activity.

Visitor Spending

Spending by visitors in a destination.

Hotel, Motel, STVR

Accommodation types that house transient lodging activity.

Other Overnight

Overnight visitors who stay in a campground or 2nd home.

Private Home

Personal residences used to host friends and family visiting overnight in the destination.

NAICS

North American Industry Classification System.

Vacation Home

Privately owned homes for personal use as a seasonal property.

Person Trip

A trip made by a person to the destination.

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates

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Methodology Travel Impacts Methodology The direct travel impacts reported in this analysis were estimated using DRA’s Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM). First developed in 1985, this model estimates direct impacts at a local level without relying on annual survey research. The “bottom up” approach of the RTIM involves modeling of private and public data at the county level, ensuring that the final findings correspond closely with the various travel indicators available for each respective county. Results are then aggregated to regions and the state or disaggregated to the city level based on relevant indicators at these geographic levels. The result is a detailed profile of taxes, employment, wages, and spending that can be tracked consistently over time.

The economic impact associated with day visitors and overnight visitors is a primary breakout included in this report.

Lodging tax data and survey data on visitor expenditures inform estimates of total spending associated with overnight visitors who stay in commercial lodging in the studied region. DRA maintains its our own expenditure distribution database for each state we work in, with input from multiple major survey providers. Inventory of campgrounds are collected for commercial and public sites, and occupancy is modeled based on a representative subset of sites. Sales attributable to travelers staying in their second homes are calculated from inventories from the US Census and public information on average utilization rates. Visitation of friends and relatives (VFR) is generally stable across time and geography, the primary driver for a destination being the local resident population. Estimates of visitor spending related to day travel can be driven by several factors, including proximity to nearby populous areas, opportunities for recreation and shopping, and inventory of lodging options compared to surrounding areas. Baseline estimates for day visitation are calculated as a factor of overnight visitation, the factor being derived from regional results of national visitor profile data.

Spending on travel-related activities translates into jobs, earnings, and taxes. Calculation of these direct impacts relies on public data on jobs, wages, and business receipts by industry for each geographical area. State and local taxes on travelrelated business also factor into triangulating direct travel impacts.

Findings in this report have been compared to various public and private data sources to ensure that the economic impacts estimates are as accurate as possible. Key private data sources used for purposes of this analysis include STR, KeyData, AirDNA, and OmniTrak. Public data sources include the US Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), California Employment Development Department (EDD), and the city governments of Carmel, Gonzales, Greenfield, King City, Marina, Monterey, Pacific Grove, Salinas, Seaside, and Soledad in California.

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2023p / Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates