VA Barometer 2009/10

2009/10

CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON The 2009 VA Barometer points to a decline in the positive opinions Swedes have of science:

va Barometer 2009/10 – va Report 2009:2 issn: 1653-6843 isbn: 978-91-85585-53-3 (tryckt) urn:nbn:se:vetenskapochallmanhet-2009-2-eng (pdf ) Published by: Vetenskap & Allmänhet, VA Box 5073, 102 42 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone: +46 (0)8 791 29 00 Fax: +46 (0)8 611 56 23 E-mail: info@v-a.se Website: www.v-a.se Readers are welcome to quote from this report provided VA is cited as the source.

• Optimism about scientific development is waning.

• More people think science and technology are too difficult to understand.

• More people believe that that astrology is a scientific subject.

• Fewer young people want to become scientists.

But there is some good news. Many people agree that scientists and researchers are needed to solve the problems facing mankind. And confidence in the potential of research continues to be high, particularly regarding climatic and environmental research.

CONTENTS

The VA barometer was compiled using information from over 1,000 telephone interviews with a representative sample of the Swedish adult population (aged 16 and over). The interviews were conducted between 15th and 21st September 2009 by the opinion poll company Novus Opinion. This is the eighth barometer since VA was formed in 2002. The VA barometer is produced with support from the Swedish Research Council.

2008/2009 through Swedish eyes.............................................6 Cooler attitude towards science............................................... 8 Still living in ivory towers?..................................................... 10 Increase in confidence slows down ........................................12 The potential of research........................................................14 Scientists can save the climate!............................................... 16 We need scientists!..................................................................18 Everyday issues are prioritised................................................20 Too many scare stories........................................................... 22 What is science?.................................................................... 24 Belief in astrology is rising..................................................... 26 Research – a good career choice............................................. 28 Waning interest in scientific careers....................................... 30 Differences between groups................................................... 32 VA Reports 02–09..................................................................33

5

2008/2009 THROUGH SWEDISH EYES...

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) particle accelerator is launched.

The world does not come to an end but on 19 September the LHC has to be stopped due to an electrical problem.

Sept

Oct

Election in USA. Barack Obama wins.

Nov

Lehman Brothers investment bank files for bankruptcy.

Global financial crisis.

The Nobel Foundation is accused in the media of accepting bribes.

Darwin’s 200th anniversary.

Dec

2009

6

Jan

The Bank of Sweden reduces the interest rate from 2 to 1 percent. The crisis dominates the media.

The Swedish Humanist Association’s campaign “God probably doesn’t exist” is launched.

GM announces that Swedish car brand SAAB is for sale.

The automobile crisis dominates the media.

Feb

Mar

Two thesis projects at Sweden’s biggest art and design college, Konstfack (University College of Arts, Crafts and Design), attract attention and are reported to the police, but pass the examination.

A professor at the Swedish National Defence College is accused of plagiarism on a grand scale

April

May

June

July

Swine flu dominates the media – When will the vaccine be ready and has it been through sufficient testing? Hand sanitizer sells out.

Aug

Sept

Oct

Christer Fuglesang embarks on his second space voyage. Space flight risks highlighted by the media.

Swedish MP Marit Paulsen (Liberal Party) makes negative statement about organic farming.

Performer Michael Jackson dies.

Researchers warn that too much sun protection leads to vitamin D deficiency.

8

COOLER ATTITUDE TOWARDS SCIENCE In 2008 there was a clear increase in Swedes’ positive attitudes towards research and scientists. Now this trend seems to be declining.

The percentage of people who believe that scientific development has improved people’s lives is at its lowest since 2003.

Men are more positive than women towards both scientific and technological development; more of them respond that development has improved people’s lives. People in a high income bracket, people with a high level of education and those over 30 have a more positive opinion of scientific development than others.

Taking the decade as a whole, confidence levels in science and technology are high. At the beginning of the 1980s, only 60-70 percent of people had a positive opinion of technological development.

The graph shows the percentage of the general public who believe that scientific and technological development over the past 10-20 years has made people’s lives better. Please note that the scale is not continuous.

100 %

90 %

Technological development

80 % Scientific development 70 %

60 %

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10

STILL LIVING IN IVORY TOWERS? Is science and technology too difficult for most people to understand?

The percentage of people who think so has increased slightly. This increase follows a steady decline since the beginning of the decade.

The percentage of people who agree has increased in all age groups with the exception of people between 30 and 44 years. Together with people with a university education, this group is least likely to believe that science and technology are too difficult to understand. Only three out of ten in these groups agree completely or largely with this.

People with only the nine-year compulsory education and those over 60 years are more likely than others to think that science and technology are too difficult to understand; more than half agree completely or largely with this statement.

The graph shows the percentage who agree completely, largely or not at all with the statement “Science and technology are too difficult for most people to understand�.

60 %

50 %

Agree completely or largely

40 %

30 % Not agree at all

20 %

10 %

0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12

INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE SLOWS DOWN Swedes have a high confidence in researchers, but confidence is fragile and can easily be affected by media reports.

The most common examples of negative research news the public gave when asked in an open question were: • • • • •

Cheating in research, dubious research methods Swine flu and the vaccine Too many alarmist reports and scare stories Mixed messages about food, diet and health Researchers disagree – Who should we believe?

Only a few answers related to the financial crisis. People with a high level of education have more confidence than others in academic researchers.

The graph shows the percentage of the public who have a high or very high level of confidence in researchers.

100 %

Researchers at universities 80 %

60 %

Researchers within companies

40 %

20 %

0%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

14

The potential of research Confidence among Swedes in the potential of research to solve problems is very high – particularly within areas relating to the environ­ment, medicine, the climate and energy. Media reporting probably plays a role in this optimistic view.

Only half of the respondents believe that research can lead to better mental health. University-educated respondents are the most sceptical. Otherwise, people with a high level of education are generally the group with the highest level of confidence in the potential of research.

People over 60 years old have in most cases a lower level of confidence than younger people in the ability of research to solve various problems. Differences along gender lines are usually small, but men are more likely than women to believe in the ability of research to lead to economic growth.

The graph shows the percentage of people who believe that there is a good chance that within a period of ten years research will help to...

...introduce more efficient and eco-friendly energy sources

89 %

...improve the environment in the Baltic Sea

80 %

...slow the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria*

77 %

69 %

...slow climate change ...increase economic growth in Sweden

62 %

...improve mental health

53 %

...counteract terrorism* 0%

46 % 20 %

40 %

60 %

*2008 80 %

100 %

16

SCIENTISTS CAN SAVE THE CLIMATE! Following the tsunami disaster of 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the human impact on the climate and the environment became the focus of public debate. Since then the percentage of people who believe that research can help slow climate change has been steadily increasing.

Young people have the greatest confidence in the potential of climate research. People over 60 are the most pessimistic. This older group also shows the most uncertainty, being more likely to answer “don’t know” to climate related questions.

The climate issue is also sometimes mentioned as an example of “bad news” about research in our open question (see page 12). The percentage of people who gave this response has, however, fallen.

Graph: Do you believe that there is a good chance that research will help to slow climate change within ten years? Percentage Yes.

80 %

60 %

40 %

20 %

0%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

18

WE NEED SCIENTISTS! Almost nine out of ten people believe that research is necessary to solve mankind’s problems. In 2007 three out of four agreed with this statement.

Less than one in four believe that scientists test new things without considering the risks – a fall of eight percent since 2003. Only one in three, however, totally disagree with the statement.

Young people (16–29 years), low wage earners and people with only the nine-year compulsory education are more likely than older people, people with a high level of education and those with higher incomes to believe that scientists do not pay sufficient attention to the risks.

100 % Largely agree Completely agree 80 %

60 %

40 %

69 %

20 %

0%

The graph shows the percentage of people who agree entirely or largely with the two statements.

19 %

16 % 7% Scientists are necessary to solve the problems of mankind

Scientists seem to test new things without considering the risks

20

EVERYDAY ISSUES ARE PRIORITISED Issues which affect people’s everyday lives are considered important areas in which to conduct research. Education is one example, energy another.

Evolutionary biology and religion are areas where it may be more difficult to see the direct benefits. This is reflected in the fact that fewer people think this type of research should receive government funding.

People with a high level of education are more likely than others to believe that research in all of the areas mentioned is important.

People under 30 support funding research into religions more than other people: 42 percent compared to the average of 33 percent. Women are also significantly more likely than men to believe that it is important to fund research into religion and evolutionary biology.

Graph: How important do you believe it is to invest government funds in these areas? (Percentage of 4 and 5 on a scale from 1 = not important at all, to 5 = very important.)

Effective and environmentally friendly energy sources (2005)

65 %

Knowledge about teaching to improve the performance of children in schools

23 %

43 %

Knowledge about nuclear power, e.g. to develop it as an energy source (2008)

31 %

23 %

Knowledge about evolutionary biology to understand how animals and plant species originate and evolve

14 %

25 %

Knowledge about genetic engineering, e.g. for the development of more robust crops

15 %

24 %

Knowledge about religions e.g.

12 % to facilitate integration 0%

36 %

5.

21 % 20 %

4.

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

22

TOO MANY SCARE STORIES The percentage of people who think that too many alarmist reports are published is increasing. More than eight out of ten people also feel that it is better to wait before publishing information about new research discoveries until the results have been confirmed. This is also higher than the previous year.

“Scare stories” is one of the most common answers to our open question asking respondents if they have seen any negative news reports relating to research. People are tired of scare stories and this may impact their view of research in general.

Graph: Research results that may be significant for people’s health are sometimes published before they have been confirmed or refuted by other researchers, in order to warn people about risks associated with, for example, habits or lifestyles. Do you think that too many of these so-called scare stories are published? The percentage of people answering “Don’t know” is not shown in the graph.

100 % Yes No 80 %

60 %

40 % 65 %

70 %

65 %

20 % 31 %

0%

2005

31 %

2006

27 %

2009

24

WHAT IS SCIENCE? Opinions on how scientific different academic subjects are differ among people with different levels of education. In general, those with a high level of education consider the subjects to be more scientific than others do.

In the wake of the financial crisis and the recession, economic research has become the focus of attention. This may explain the fact that the percentage of people who consider business economics to be a scientific subject has increased from 40 percent in 2008 to 47 percent in 2009. The percentage of people with the same opinion about economics has increased slightly since 2005, from 54 to 56 percent.

Young people are more likely than others to categorise business economics as unscientific (1 or 2 on the scale), while older people are more likely to categorise sociology as unscientific.

The graph shows the percentage of people who think that various subjects are scientific (4 or 5 on a scale from 1 to 5, where 5 = to the highest degree and 1 = not at all). An explanation of all subjects was provided to avoid misunderstandings.

95 %

Medicine 2008 72 %

Meteorology 2009

62 %

Information technology 2009

56 %

Economics 2009

53 %

Astronomy 2009 Sociology 2008

49 %

Business economics 2009

47 % 41 %

History 2006 25 %

Literary studies 2007 Theology 2009 0%

17 % 20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

26

BELIEF IN ASTROLOGY IS RISING In 2008, the percentage of people who think that astrology is a scientific subject was at its lowest level since VA started its barometer in 2003. Now the curve seems to be on its way up again.

The question whether people believe astrology to be scientific is a common question used to gauge knowledge in opinion surveys.

Compared to other countries, relatively few Swedes believe that astrology is scientific.

50 %

Not at all scientific

40 %

30 %

20 %

Very scientific

10 %

The graph shows the percentage of people who believe that astrology is very scientific (4 or 5 on a scale from 1 to 5), or not at all scientific (1). When the question is asked, astrology is described as “the study of the affect that the signs of the zodiac have on our lives.�

0%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

28

Research – a good career choice As we saw on page 6, the public has great confidence in scientists.

Most people would also recommend research as a career to their friends and relatives.

Young people under the age of 30 and people with only the nineyear compulsory education are least likely to recommend that someone becomes a researcher; just over six out of ten answered yes.

People with a higher level of education and people between 45 and 59 are the most positive – more than eight out of ten would recommend that someone becomes a researcher.

Graph: Would you recommend research as a career to someone you know?

No 17 %

Don No ’t kno resp w/ ons 5 e % Maybe 4 %

Yes 74 %

30

WANING INTEREST IN SCIENTIFIC CAREERS Young people’s interest in becoming scientists in the future has fallen somewhat compared to last year. Three out of ten, 28 percent, answered yes and 10 percent answered maybe. In previous years there has been a greater interest amongst young men than young women, but this year young women were more likely to answer yes (34 percent).

When asked about a career in engineering, the percentages are roughly the same. 26 percent answered yes and 8 percent maybe (while 3 percent are already working as engineers). There is, however, a bigger gender difference. One out of three young men and only about half as many young women answered yes. Seven out of ten girls and half as many boys answered with a definite “No.” Graph: Would you like to work as a scientist in the future? Percentage answering yes. The question was asked of young people between the ages of 16 and 29 years. The percentage who answered “maybe” is not shown in the graph.

40 % 34 % 31 % 30 %

29 %

28 %

20 %

10 %

0%

2006

2007

2008

2009

32

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GROUPS

VA Reports 02–09 2002:1 2002:2 2002:3 2002:4

What do people in other countries think?

The public’s view of science Researchers’ views on dialogue with the public How young people view science

The most important differences in attitudes between different groups:

2003:1 2003:2

2003:3 2003:4 2003:5

Science in society VA studies under the microscope: Perspectives on science 2002 How the public views science 2003 How researchers view Public & Science* Researchers’ views on dialogue with the public

2004:1 2004:2

2004:3 2004:4 2004:5 2004:6

Science in society Teachers’ attitudes towards science and research-based knowledge How the public views science 2004 How teachers view science* Researchers’ views on dialogue with the public What do people in other countries think, 2004? 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 Science in society 2008:4 Teachers on entrepreneurship 2008:5 Eurobarometers on science, 2005 2008:6 How the public views science, 2005 Science in the press 2009:1 How journalists view science* 2009:2 2009:3 Science in society 2009:4 How politicians view science

• Level of education – the most important factor and the one that makes the most difference. People with a high level of education are in general more positive towards research and scientists than people with a low level of education.

• Young people have less reverence for science and technology than older people and often have more faith in the ability of science to solve problems. Younger people are more likely to think that astrology is a scientific subject.

• Gender is only a factor in certain cases, for example regarding the potential of research to effect economic growth, and which research areas should receive government funding.

2005:1 2005:2 2005:3 2005:4 2005:5 2005:6 2006:1 2006:2

Reports marked with an asterisk (*) are available in English.

2006:3 2006:4

2006:5 2006:6 2006:7 2006:8 2006:9

Science in the political press Eighteen voices on the relationship between researchers and politicians Politics and science* How the public views science, 2006 Stockholm politicians’ view of science Politics and science –a literature survey The public on Carl Linnaeus, 2006

2007:1 2007:2 2007:3 2007:4 2007:5 2007:6 2007:7 2007:8

Journalists on research Science in society How the public views science, 2007 Young people’s views on science Young people on knowledge Crazy, confused and evil?

Projects with no effect?

Knowledge rocks! Summary of a youth study by VA* After the Linnaeus anniversary Science in society Myself as a researcher* The value of knowledge in the business world Knowledge in transition* VA barometer 2008 Science in society VA barometer 2009/10 Knowledge you can believe in?

ODE – Public Engagement and Dialogue

34

Vetenskap & Allmänhet, VA (Public and Science), is a Swedish association aimed at promoting dialogue and openness between the public – especially the young – and researchers. It endeavours to stimulate greater dialogue around issues that concern people, and to connect these issues to science. VA operates through the broad involvement of its members-organisations, public authorities and institutions, labour confederations, companies, private associations, religious groups and private individuals from across Swedish society.

Everyone is welcome to join VA, which is a non-profit association.

For more information, please visit www.v-a.se