Birmingham Property Report: Jan-Oct 2021

Birmingham

Property Market Report January – October 2021

Introduction Birmingham’s renaissance continued throughout 2021, despite the pressures of the pandemic.

In the second half of 2021, businesses across the Midlands reconsidered their future workplace strategy, with a post-pandemic world in mind.

Many focused on bringing people back into the workplace and have been transitioning away from full remote working as the vaccination programme continued.

This resulted in a positive turnaround in commercial sentiment compared with the inertia of the previous 12 months.

As a result, quoting rents continue to rise, as lack of supply in both office and industrial terms, remains an issue across the Midlands.

Now is the prime time for office occupiers to right-size their premises and consider layout and content whilst making the most of the flexible offers and incentives available.

On the industrial and logistics front, demand has continued to soar across the Midlands, due in part to the evolution to online shopping and a requirement for last-mile delivery, as well as the strategic location of the region.

With such demand, now is the time for landlords of both office and industrial premises to invest in upgrading or redeveloping their buildings and portfolios, to offer the next generation in Grade A space and capitalise on the evolving market dynamics here.

Developers and landlords are increasingly aware of this and are striving, more than ever, towards not only their own carbon neutrality, but that of their builds too.

If you would like to discuss any of the issues explored within this report, or you would like support with your own office or industrial requirements – whether as an occupier, or landlord, investor or developer/landowner, get in touch.

Yours sincerely

Carole Taylor Partner & LLP Member Vail Williams

2

Office market review Birmingham, the UK’s second largest city, is worlds apart from where it was five years ago and has continued its renaissance throughout 2021, despite the pressures of the pandemic.

Improved public realm at schemes including Paradise, Arena Central, Centenary Square and Brindleyplace have now interconnected the CBD, and the city’s skyscape has completely transformed with the addition of contemporary high-rise buildings like 103 Colmore Row, the tallest tower currently under construction outside of London.

With several new development schemes in the pipeline, the advancement of HS2 and the imminent arrival of the Commonwealth Games to the city, the effects of the city’s renaissance continue to translate into inward investment and office market activity.

Indeed, the latest indicators from the Birmingham Office Market Forum, show that the office market here is returning to pre-pandemic levels.

New development and the refurbishment of existing stock, together with the growth of existing occupiers in the city, is driving the office market here which is attracting a wealth of new occupiers.

Meanwhile, ongoing infrastructure improvements have expanded the city’s traditional central business district (CBD) which, for many years, was so concentrated that it restricted the city’s advancement as a business hub.

Top tier professional services firms like PwC, DLA Piper and Grant Thornton have all demonstrated a flight to quality and are expanding their presence in Birmingham, whilst others are investing in the city for the first time.

Goldman Sachs is one such business and has taken an initial 7,500 sq ft of office space at WeWork, 55 Colmore Row, with a view to securing a more permanent office solution in the next 12-18 months which could house several hundred people over the coming years.

Throughout the last six months, many businesses have been taking more of a short-term property view, hedging flexibility and speed of entry into space, against a cost premium.

We are seeing this trend not just amongst the SME community, but also the large corporates. For Goldman Sachs, Birmingham represents its first foray outside London, with high-quality serviced accommodation offering them maximum flexibility whilst they establish themselves in the city.

This demand is giving developers the confidence to bring forward speculative pipeline schemes including detailed planning applications to complete phase two of Paradise.

3

Market activity As more businesses returned to the workplace following the easing of lockdown restrictions and the successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme, the effects of this positive sentiment started to filter through to the office market.

Considering the impact of the pandemic, take up levels in 2021 have been strong at just 7.5% below the 10-year average for Q1-Q3, and as we head towards the end of the year, there are high hopes for a strong finish.

Atkins committed to 36,000 sq ft at Two Chamberlain Square and Arup have been the first to commit to One Centenary Square, the latest building under construction at Paradise, where they have taken 68,000 sq ft over four floors.

Take up levels for the first half of 2021 exceeded 250,000 sq ft – a significant increase on the second half of 2020. A further 243,000 sq ft was let in Q3, with a total 496,000 sq ft of office space let, spanning 63 deals as we head in to Q4.

Meanwhile, Birmingham out of town (OOT) hasn’t had the come-back that was anticipated in 2020.

A further 109,000 sq ft of alternative uses were transacted over four office buildings, although these did not meet the current Birmingham Office Market Forum definitions to be included within office take-up figures.

Much of this has been for Grade A space, with serviced offices representing a significant proportion, including lettings to serviced office providers IWG and x+why.

The M42 / OOT office market has, historically, been constrained owing to a significant lack of supply. However, the market here is gaining traction with several deals completing in recent months.

The fundamentals of this market are such that demand for this location will continue, as a similar flight to quality is taking place here. This is giving developers the confidence to bring forward new schemes and refurbish existing stock to meet growing OOT demand.

IWG took 50,000 sq ft at M7’s Mailbox, meanwhile x+why took 34,500 sq ft spanning three floors at 103 Colmore Row - their first property deal outside London, with a further 41,000 sq ft at 6 Brindleyplace.

Considering the impact of the pandemic, take up levels in 2021 have been strong at just shy of the 10-year average for Q1-Q3 take-up (7.5%).

4

Design & Sustainability The flight to office quality, better design and more sustainability credentials continued throughout 2021, as occupiers sought a better standard of building and facilities in the race for workforce talent, health and wellbeing.

Together with the COP26 effect, this is translating into much greener office buildings which are attracting both investors and occupiers who want to benefit from the flight to environmental quality – not to mention the associated brand enhancement and talent attraction this brings.

Roof terraces and an increased focus on biophilic design are helping workforces to connect with the natural environment, and bike racks and showers are supporting a more sustainable commute and better wellbeing which, in turn, is boosting productivity.

As well as investing in the refurbishment of existing office stock, landlords are offering more flexibility and fullyfitted Cat A+ sustainable solutions, allowing occupiers to sign up quickly on short leases – saving both time and capital expenditure.

103 Colmore Row is one such building - the CBD’s first to connect to the city’s fourth district energy system, resulting in lower energy costs, reduced carbon emissions and improved air quality, whilst boasting a service charge which is, on average, 12% less than its peers.

10 Brindleyplace, meanwhile, is Birmingham’s first building to receive Fitwell accreditation which is a standard to measure occupant health and wellbeing.

The quality of office stock, together with a mix of sustainable credentials, is creating an environmentally conscious, safe and desirable city in which to work, and those landlords that answer to this demand for sustainability will win out over their competitors.

Together with the COP26 effect, this is translating into much greener office buildings which are attracting both investors and occupiers who want to benefit from the flight to environmental quality.

5

Supply Supply of Grade A office space in Birmingham city centre is down significantly, at around 250,000 sq ft.

Indeed, total availability at the end of Q2 was 1.5 million sq ft – 34% down on the five-year average. With less than a year’s prime supply available, the market for high-quality office space in the city remains significantly undersupplied.

However, three major schemes at 103 Colmore Row, Paradise and Arena Central will help to satisfy pent up demand for Grade A office space, with over 700,000 sq ft due to come to market in the next year, which will continue to attract new occupiers into the city.

Meanwhile, Birmingham Out of Town (OOT) and the Coventry office markets have remained relatively static, with limited prime Grade A space available. However, what is available is of a good standard.

For those seeking OOT office space, Birmingham Business Park has several floors available across a series of buildings set in 148 acres of mature parkland. It is the most established OOT business park in the Midlands and home to over 150 companies including Fujitsu and Rolls Royce.

Blythe Valley Park, located near Solihull, is a 1.2 million square foot mixed use business park home to 25 businesses employing more than 3,500 people, and offers a versatile office and industrial space set in 122 acres of parkland.

Occupiers include Taylor Wimpey, Arup and St. James’ Place.

The future for Coventry’s office market looks bright, with the delivery of an ambitious £700 million new business district, Friargate, which will bring up to 2,350,000 sq ft of Grade A office space across 14 buildings to the city, with supporting leisure amenities and just a five-minute walk from the city centre.

Standing at 12 storeys tall, One Friargate is now complete and work on Two Friargate which will provide 136,000 sq ft of sustainable Grade A office space, is already underway.

These developments will help to address the lack of prime Grade A space which Coventry has long suffered.

Further out of town, Westwood Business Park, an established office park five miles south of Coventry, close to the A45, continues to provide OOT office provision near the city at very reasonable rents.

As we look ahead to 2022, we are likely to see more of these sorts of sustainable, green buildings come to market, as the focus on environmental credentials continues, particularly in line with Birmingham City Council’s ambition to become net zero carbon by 2030.

250,000 sq ft prime city centre supply

1.5m sq ft

£700m

total supply

Coventry business district

34%

2.35m sq ft

decrease in availability

Grade A office space

14 buildings

6

Rental trends With the imminent completion of Grade A schemes such as 103 Colmore Row, Paradise and Arena Central headline rents in Birmingham City centre have increased by over 6% from their 2019 peak, to between £37.00 and £40.00 psf.

We expect this trend to continue and, by 2025, would expect occupiers to have to pay somewhere in the region of £42.00 to £45.00 psf for high-quality Grade A space in Birmingham city centre.

This is being driven largely by the flight to quality as firms seek to attract and retain the best people, by acquiring the best possible premises.

For those businesses seeking office space in Coventry and the A46 corridor, you can expect to pay around £23.50.

Grade A space at new locations including One Friargate in Coventry are commanding rents in the region of £28.00 psf, and you can expect to pay approximately £22.00 psf at sites like Westwood Business Park.

Further out of the city, rents in Birmingham out of town (OOT) have increased to £24.50 at places such as Birmingham Business Park and Blythe Valley Business Park, where you can expect to pay between £18.00 and £24.00 psf.

This is being driven largely by the flight to quality as firms seek to attract and retain the best people, by acquiring the best possible premises.

6% rent increase

£45.00 psf by 2025

7

Market transactions

Birmingham Location:

Birmingham 6 Brindley Place

Location:

103 Colmore Row

Transaction Letting / 1 year 3 months lease type: Size: 28,267 sq ft

Transaction Letting / 10-year lease type: Size: 12,146 sq ft

Rent: Tenant:

£27.00 per sq ft Commonwealth Games

Rent: Tenant:

£38 per sq ft Tilney Smith & Williamson

Landlord:

Lone Star Europe Acquisitions Ltd

Landlord:

Tristan Capital Partners

Birmingham Location:

Birmingham One Centenary Way

Location:

Two Chamberlain Square

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease 10-year type: break Size: 65,631 sq ft

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease type: Size: 36,340 sq ft

Rent: Tenant:

Undisclosed figure – at market level Arup Group Ltd

Rent: Tenant:

£37.50 per sq ft Atkins

Landlord:

Hermes Real Estate Investment Management Ltd

Landlord:

Canada Pension Plan Investments

Images © CoStar

8

Office stats

1 2 BIRMINGHAM

3 COVENTRY

Prime headline rents (psf) Town

Market availability (sq ft)

Grade A

Grade B

Town

Grade A

Grade B

1.

BIRMINGHAM CITY

£40.00

£20.00

1.

BIRMINGHAM CITY

896,000

184,000

2.

BIRMINGHAM OUT OF TOWN (M42)

£25.00

£21.00

2.

BIRMINGHAM OUT OF TOWN (M42)

480,542

49,184

3.

COVENTRY (A46 CORRIDOR)

£23.50

£14.00

3.

COVENTRY (A46 CORRIDOR)

449,403

34,781

Growth

Stable

Key Reduction

9

Industrial market review The industrial and logistics market across the Midlands has remained incredibly resilient, with the pandemic catalysing significant growth across the board, particularly in the warehouse distribution market.

The first half of 2021 saw record levels of industrial take up above the long-term average, not just in last mile distribution, but also regional and national distribution, owing to the shift to digital retail that we witnessed throughout the pandemic.

Despite town centre footfall increasing, online sales have proved to be remarkably robust in light of the opening up of non-essential retail (Deloitte).

With over a quarter (26%) of industrial and warehouse demand coming from the online retail sector this year, and with expectations that online retail will account for 37% of all retail sales by 2025 (Forrester), we expect this trend to continue into 2022.

However, it is not just online retail which has experienced a boom. There has also been a lot of traction in the industrial market for manufacturers too, with Jaguar Land Rover’s warehousing complex at Mercia Park, Appleby Magna the single largest build to suit facility in the UK.

Indeed, such is the demand for industrial premises, there are often no existing units available for occupiers wanting a big shed and they are being forced to wait for a new unit to be constructed.

This lack of suitable stock together with the demise of the high street and soaring online retail sales, could create the perfect rental storm for the industrial market, as rents continue to increase.

Despite town centre footfall increasing, online sales have proved to be remarkably robust in light of the opening up of non-essential retail.

10

Market activity Ecommerce, and specifically the urban logistics and parcel delivery companies, continue to drive the mid-sized and big box industrial property market, as do manufacturers with lots of development for this market too.

The manufacturing sector, particularly automotive, are taking both mid-sized and big box units, with International Automotive Components Group taking c.235,000 sq ft at Prologis’ Interchange Park in Birmingham.

The UK’s biggest ever single Build to Suit occupier at Mercia Park, will see the creation of Jaguar Land Rover’s global distribution base.

The site is currently under construction, adjacent to J11 of the M42 at Appleby Magna. The complex, developed

by IM Properties and funded by Intermediate Capital Group (ICG), will extend to 3 million sq ft and the total complex will be completed in Autumn 2022 although some buildings will be handed over imminently.

There is also a huge amount of activity at Magna Park, which has seen four major new occupiers in recent months, taking 1.3 million sq ft of warehousing / distribution space.

Healthcare distribution company Movianto, JD.com, logistics specialist Whistl, and Amazon have all committed to space here, with the latter taking a 750,000 sq ft facility at the business park, demonstrating its continued attractiveness to international businesses.

There is also a huge amount of activity at Magna Park, which has seen four major new occupiers in recent months, taking 1.3 million sq ft of industrial space.

11

Design & Sustainability The large majority of industrial stock available across the Midlands is made up of lower quality second-hand units, with less than a quarter of available stock comprising the more in demand new high specification space.

This, together with an increase in overall occupier requirements, is leading many landlords, investors and developers to inject capital into the refurbishment of existing stock to ensure it is fit for the needs of the modern occupier.

The industrial market has traditionally always been single storey. However, as land values creep up and materials handling processes improve, we are seeing developers be more creative in how they maximise the value out of the land and buildings they construct.

As part of this process, we are seeing the delivery of much more sustainable industrial premises, as occupiers and landlords /developers alike, increase their focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies.

Indeed, the success of some deals has hinged on such sustainability credibility.

Eaves heights have been increasing, to improve a building’s cubic capacity and maximise the value derived from it for the occupier and rental for the developer, and this is likely to continue.

Of course, the industrial market is such that occupiers cannot be as selective as they might in the office market where supply is swelling, but where there is a landlord who has deployed an effective ESG policy, those buildings will prevail in the market.

Outside, there is growing demand for more secure yard space and larger turning circles to account for the size of HGVs, but developers need to balance this with the added pressure to maximise investment return on the land, through the biggest building footprint. Dock level access is very much the priority in most big box units.

Often cross docked units only provide two or three grade access doors and there are still a number of warehouse operators who need level access doors, which can be quite difficult to retro fit due to the bracing and proximity to the lower yard level for the docks.

There is growing demand for more secure yard space and larger turning circles to account for the size of HGVs.

12

Supply At a national level, the industrial occupier market shows no signs of letting up with occupiers continuing to be acquisitive.

Vacancy levels have been at historically low level and supply has been heavily outweighed by demand.

This will require new Grade A stock to be brought to market from both speculative development and largescale build-to-suit units.

However, there is also a significant shortage of industrial sites, and we are seeing a considerable increase in the number and type of developers that are now attempting to take sites through the local plan process to obtain industrial development land.

As a result of the lack of supply and the increase in demand we are seeing developers starting to speculatively build a number of big boxes. Several of these are going under offer before construction has started and are certainly likely to be pre-let before completion – such is the level of demand for space at the current time.

Scarcity of construction materials and shortage of labour is posing a threat to the delivery pipeline, slowing the rate of construction.

Prologis is preparing to speculatively build the last 250,000 sq ft at Hams Hall Distribution Park near J9 of the M42.

Furthermore, two units of 150,000 sq ft and 330,000 sq ft are being speculatively developed at Prologis Ryton in Coventry.

Hines has committed to forward fund the speculative development of c.772,000 sq ft of logistics facilities at four industrial locations across the East Midlands, all owned by developer Clowes.

GLP is also looking to speculatively build three units of 200,000 sq ft (MPN1), 503,000 sq ft (MPN2) and 297,000 sq ft (MPN3) in the heart of the ‘logistics golden triangle’ at Magna Park, Lutterworth - the UK and Europe’s largest dedicated logistics and distribution park.

Nurton Developments is speculatively building three units at Quintus at Branston Locks near Burton upon Trent spanning 58,850 sq ft, 75,000 sq ft and 100,300 sq ft, alongside the pre-let of a 171,000 sq ft unit for Werner UK Sales and Distribution Ltd.

There is also a significant shortage of industrial sites, and we are seeing a considerable increase in the number and type of developers that are now attempting to take sites through the local plan process to obtain industrial development land.

13

Rental trends Rental growth for industrial premises continues to be at an all-time high, with Birmingham sitting at the top of the table for annual rental growth across the Midlands, as occupiers find themselves in increasing competition for units.

This trend has continued over the past 12 months, with a 6.7% increase across the region, underpinned by a fluctuation in demand. According to research by Prologis, this will accelerate through 2021 to 6.5% for the full year.

The average industrial rent across the Birmingham market is £6.10 per sq ft, which sits 20% above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Prime Birmingham rents are now £7.50-£8.00 per sq ft for units over 40,000 sq ft, meanwhile smaller units can be significantly higher.* Some sources expect this growth to plateau as a new “norm” of rents emerges across Birmingham and its submarkets.

However, we believe rents - particularly for build to suit opportunities - will continue to rise as build costs soar, and the shortages of building materials and labour that we are seeing in the market, continue.

In contrast to this, rental figures for second-hand stock have ranged between £5.00 and £6.50 depending on the condition of the space and the extent of the work/ refurbishment needed to accommodate prospective occupiers.

Alongside rental tone, we are seeing lease terms evolve too. Until recently, it was commonplace to be able to agree a 15-year term with a break at 10 years on a new big box from the main shed developers.

Now, some developers are insisting on a straight 15-year term, such is the level of competition in the market, meanwhile others are not putting forward proposals at any level on a speculative unit, unless you can offer a blue-chip covenant.

14

Market transactions

Sutton Coldfield

Solihull

Location:

Location:

Unit H2 Midpoint Park, Kingsbury Road Transaction Letting / 10-year lease type: Size: 110,148 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£6.85 per sq ft Amazon

Landlord:

CBRE Global Investors Ltd

Lutterworth Location:

Unit 4, Solihull Parkway

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease type: Size: 57,028 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£8.00 per sq ft Heatseam Limited

Landlord:

IBIF Ltd

Lutterworth Magna Park MPS3, Coventry Road

Location:

Magna Park MPS1, Coventry Road

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease type: Size: 300,325 sq ft

Transaction Letting / 20-year lease type: Size: 746,478 sq ft

Rent: Tenant:

£7.00 per sq ft Whistl

Rent: Tenant:

£6.50 per sq ft Amazon

Landlord:

GLP

Landlord:

GLP

Images © CoStar

15

Market transactions

Birmingham

Branston Locks (Burton upon Trent)

Location:

Location:

Units 23-27 Tyburn Road (Graveley Ind Park) Transaction Letting / 5-year lease type: Size: 21,160 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£6.00 per sq ft Skirting World Limited

Landlord:

Aberdeen Standard Investments Ltd

Unit 4, Quintus

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease type: Size: 171,000 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£6.25 psf Werner UK Sales and Distribution Ltd.

Landlord:

Nurton Developments

Oldbury (Black Country)

Wolverhampton

Location:

Location:

BOND, Direct 2 Industrial Park

Unit 3, Wednesfield Way

Transaction Letting / 10-year lease type: Size: 27,484 sq ft

Transaction Letting / 15-year lease type: Size: 216,467 sq ft

Rent: Tenant:

£7.22 per sq ft Hayley Group Ltd

Rent: Tenant:

£6.50 per sq ft Super Smart Service

Landlord:

Goodliffe Properties Limited

Landlord:

Royal London

Images © CoStar

16

Market transactions

Coventry Location:

Coventry Unit 4 Spitfire Close

Location:

Unit 5C, Quinn Close

Transaction Letting / 5-year lease type: Size: 14,025 sq ft

Transaction Letting / 5-year lease type: Size: 30,962 sq ft

Rent: Tenant:

£7.25 per sq ft Multimatic Ltd

Rent: Tenant:

Landlord:

Fidelity UK Real Estate Fund

Landlord:

Walsall

Coleshill

Location:

Location:

Impact Park, Willenhall Lane, Bloxwich Transaction Letting / 11-year lease type: Size: 46,760 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£6.75 per sq ft CMYUK

Landlord:

British Airways Pension Fund

Images © CoStar

£7.00 per sq ft Coventry & Warwickshire Partnership NHS Trust Ropemaker Properties Ltd

Hams Hall 145, Faraday Avenue

Transaction Letting / 5-year lease type: Size: 144,996 sq ft Rent: Tenant:

£6.75 per sq ft NCF Furnishings

Landlord:

Diageo plc

17

Industrial stats

3 THE BLACK COUNTRY

1 BIRMINGHAM

2

4

COVENTRY

Prime headline rents (psf) Town

Market availability (sq ft)

Small

Mid-Sized

Big Box

(10-30,000 sq ft)

(30-100,000 sq ft)

(100,000+ sq ft)

Town

Small

Mid-Sized

Big Box

(10-30,000 sq ft)

(30-100,000 sq ft)

(100,000+ sq ft)

1.

BIRMINGHAM

£7.25

£7.00

£6.75

1.

BIRMINGHAM

756,000

1.2M

336,000

2.

COVENTRY

£7.25

£7.00

£7.00

2.

COVENTRY

941,000

1.6M

1.7M

3.

BLACK COUNTRY

£7.00

£7.00

£6.50

3.

BLACK COUNTRY

1.4M

1.2M

771,000

4.

GOLDEN TRIANGLE (COVENTRY, LEICESTER, LUTTERWORTH)

£7.25

£7.00

£7.00

4.

GOLDEN TRIANGLE (COVENTRY, LEICESTER, LUTTERWORTH)

1.5M

2.1M

3.1M

Growth

Stable

Key Reduction

Golden Triangle

18

Get in touch Vail Williams has operated in the Midlands commercial property market for the past 15 years.

Our office and industrial agency experts know the Midlands property market inside out, and can advise you on the full lifecycle of your commercial property needs – whether you are an occupier seeking to lease, acquire or sell property, or an investor, developer or landlord wishing to build, fitout and let a building.

We work with a variety of public and private sector occupiers, landlords and investors, across the region, including Molson Coors, National Express, First Group, Real Estate Investors Plc, Nurton Developments and London and Scottish.

To discuss your property requirements, get in touch.

Carole Taylor Partner – Office & industrial agency Occupier Advisory T: +44 (0)7717 814835 E: ctaylor@vailwilliams.com

Charlotte Fullard Associate – Office & industrial agency Acquisition & Disposal T: +44 (0)7901 037998 E: cfullard@vailwilliams.com

Oli Muscutt Surveyor – Office & industrial agency Acquisition & Disposal T: +44 (0)7823 791049 E: omuscutt@vailwilliams.com

19

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