Multi-Family Market Report
Providence Market
PREPARED BY
Richard Cawley President
Providence Multi-Family
MULTI-FAMILY MARKET REPORT
Market Key Statistics
2
Vacancy
3
Rent
6
Construction
10
Under Construction Properties
11
Sales
13
Sales Past 12 Months
14
Economy
16
Market Submarkets
19
Supply & Demand Trends
22
Vacancy & Rent
24
Sale Trends
26
Deliveries & Under Construction
28
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Overview Providence Multi-Family 12 Mo. Delivered Units
12 Mo. Absorption Units
Vacancy Rate
12 Mo. Asking Rent Growth
688
757
3.6%
3.3%
After decades of enduring second-city status to neighboring Boston, Providence's economy is improving, as is its multifamily environment. Providence's economy was particularly slow to recover from the recession. From 2011–13, Rhode Island had one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Through large-scale efforts by public and private groups, Rhode Island's employment rate now aligns with the U.S. average. The
area's economy is still very reliant on a slow-growing education and health sector, but job creation has been strong enough to generate solid apartment demand. Supply has responded to the metro's improving health, and close to 1,300 units are under construction—a record for the metro. Investments in the market have jumped, and while nationwide multifamily sales volume has slowed, 2017 was a peak year for Providence.
KEY INDICATORS Current Quarter
Absorption Units
Delivered Units
Under Constr Units
83
0
853
128
102
468
Units
Vacancy Rate
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
4 & 5 Star
7,565
6.4%
$1,694
$1,680
3 Star
17,976
3.1%
$1,364
$1,356
1 & 2 Star
22,646
3.1%
$1,076
$1,072
16
0
0
Market
48,187
3.6%
$1,373
$1,364
227
102
1,321
12 Month
Historical Average
Forecast Average
Peak
When
Trough
When
-0.2%
5.7%
4.5%
7.0%
2005 Q2
3.5%
2017 Q3
Absorption Units
757
463
504
1,121
2016 Q3
9
2002 Q1
Delivered Units
688
425
648
1,288
2016 Q3
0
2001 Q4
0
5
17
38
2013 Q1
0
2018 Q1
Asking Rent Growth (YOY)
3.3%
1.9%
1.3%
5.9%
2015 Q3
-3.0%
2009 Q4
Effective Rent Growth (YOY)
3.8%
1.9%
1.3%
5.8%
2015 Q3
-3.0%
2009 Q4
$236 M
$78.1 M
N/A
$295.0 M
2017 Q3
$5.6 M
2003 Q3
Annual Trends
Vacancy Change (YOY)
Demolished Units
Sales Volume
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Page 2
Vacancy Providence Multi-Family The Providence metro area covers all of Rhode Island and parts of Massachusetts and is home to about 1.6 million people. This market is dominated by eds and meds: Seven of the top 10 employers in the metro belong to healthcare and education. Providence is also home to several colleges and universities, including Brown University, Johnson & Wales University, Providence College, and the Rhode Island School of Design. Together, these institutions draw nearly 30,000 students to the city each year and attract millions of dollars in research funding. This money plays an important role in supporting medical and technical research, which lays the foundation for Rhode Island’s organic business growth. Despite the presence of these large universities, educational attainment and median income ($60,000) is on average lower than in nearby metros like Hartford, Worcester, and Boston. Renting is typically cheaper than owning in this metro, as a 30year, 4% fixed mortgage on a typical $270,000 home, with taxes, insurance and 20% down, requires about 30% of income, while rent commands closer to 25% of income. Providence was slow to recover from the great recession. As the nation recuperated, Providence was held back by high taxes, poor infrastructure, and high cost of living, to name a few factors. This ultimately sparked a statewide call to action that resulted in the establishment of several programs aimed at developing and improving aspects of Rhode Island’s economic and business climate. Although employment growth was negligible over the past decade, hiring in the past year outpaced the 10-year average, due to increased resources for entrepreneurs and the unemployed. For
example, Goldman Sachs’s 10,000 Small Businesses education program runs a chapter at the Community College of Rhode Island and provides free education services to small business owners. Its not just entrepreneurs who have helped improve Providence's economy. Several large corporations have set up shop here in the past several years with the help of state and local tax credits. Johnson & Johnson, GE Digital and Indian IT firm Infosys have all announced commitments to Rhode Island after receiving public incentives. Biotech firm Amgen became the most recent large group to announce a move to the state, confirming that they will hire more than 150 at a $165 million biomanufacturing facility in West Greenwich. Relatively light construction early in the cycle left plenty of room for the market to absorb 2016’s big supply wave. Vacancies have fallen steadily over the past several years but may have reached their nadir for the cycle in the mid-3% range. Occupancies have been buoyed by strong lease-up. For example, Greenbrier Village delivered 216 units to the metro early in 2016 and reported no availability just six months after opening, averaging a physical absorption rate of 36 units per month. In another more recent example, Paolino Properties' Case-Mead Lofts downtown has experienced strong lease up after its March 2018 delivery. The 44unit converted historic office building features microunits, popular among younger renters, and reportedly had 40% of its units reserved before opening. With a record supply wave continuing into 2018, such strong lease up will have to continue to keep vacancies near their historic lows.
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Vacancy Providence Multi-Family ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY
VACANCY RATE
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Vacancy Providence Multi-Family VACANCY BY BEDROOM
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Rent Providence Multi-Family Strong demand from an improving economy and little apartment building lead to record-low vacancies and annual rent growth that peaked at close to 6% in 2015. Even as supply has begun to pick up gains over the past 12 months were roughly twice the historical average. With a record number of units underway, such strong demand will have to continue to keep rent growth healthy. Assets rated 4 & 5 Star typically drive rent gains in this metro, although rents in 3 Star properties have been growing faster of late. Historically, the premium for 4 & 5
Star assets is less than $0.15/SF compared with the metro average. However, deliveries in the past two years command $0.35/SF or more and are leasing well, as evidenced by Greenbrier Village apartments, which stabilized in six months. Furthermore, dated properties have become ripe targets for conversion projects. Some of the metro̢۪s highest rents per SF is in converted office and industrial spaces like the Promenade in the South Hill Submarket. Renovated in 2005, the community charges almost $0.60/SF more than the metro average, and almost $0.20/SF more than the average for new deliveries.
DAILY ASKING RENT PER SF
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Rent Providence Multi-Family ASKING RENT PER UNIT & RENT GROWTH
ASKING RENT PER UNIT BY BEDROOM
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Rent Providence Multi-Family 4 & 5 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$0.89
$1.90
$1.07
$0.92
$2.08
$1.92
$0.46
$2.65
$0.13
$0.47
$0.81
$13.30
Downcity/East Side
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
Fall River
$1.02
$1.84
$1.30
$0.92
$2.08
$1.71
$0.44
$2.20
$0.10
$0.47
$0.81
$12.89
Kent County
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
New Bedford
$1.02
$1.84
$1.30
$0.92
$2.08
$1.71
$0.44
$2.20
$0.10
$0.47
$0.81
$12.89
Northeastern Provid…
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.96
$2.06
$2.00
$0.49
$2.83
$0.13
$0.47
$0.81
$13.48
Outlying Bristol Cou…
$1.02
$1.84
$1.30
$0.92
$2.08
$1.71
$0.44
$2.20
$0.10
$0.47
$0.81
$12.89
Outlying Providence… $0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
Southeastern Provi…
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
Taunton
$1.02
$1.84
$1.30
$0.92
$2.08
$1.71
$0.44
$2.20
$0.10
$0.47
$0.81
$12.89
Warwick/West War…
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
Washington County
$0.83
$1.92
$0.98
$0.91
$2.08
$2.00
$0.47
$2.83
$0.14
$0.47
$0.81
$13.44
Providence
Appliance Structural
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
3 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$0.60
$0.66
$0.77
$0.84
$1.93
$1.36
$0.44
$1.78
$0.13
$0.37
$0.74
$9.62
Downcity/East Side
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
East Bay
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.85
$1.92
$1.31
$0.44
$1.74
$0.13
$0.40
$0.76
$9.43
Fall River
$0.88
$1.39
$0.88
$0.64
$1.65
$1.62
$0.42
$1.82
$0.09
$0.10
$0.54
$10.03
Kent County
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Middletown
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
New Bedford
$0.88
$1.39
$0.88
$0.64
$1.65
$1.62
$0.42
$1.82
$0.09
$0.10
$0.54
$10.03
Newport
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Northeastern Provid…
$0.57
$0.60
$0.75
$0.88
$1.98
$1.34
$0.45
$1.79
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.67
Outlying Bristol Cou…
$0.87
$1.39
$0.88
$0.64
$1.65
$1.61
$0.42
$1.80
$0.09
$0.10
$0.54
$9.99
Outlying Newport C…
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Outlying Providence… $0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Southeastern Provi…
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Taunton
$0.84
$1.36
$0.87
$0.64
$1.62
$1.55
$0.42
$1.68
$0.09
$0.10
$0.53
$9.70
Warwick/West War…
$0.56
$0.56
$0.75
$0.83
$1.86
$1.30
$0.43
$1.70
$0.13
$0.39
$0.75
$9.26
Washington County
$0.57
$0.56
$0.75
$0.87
$1.98
$1.32
$0.45
$1.78
$0.13
$0.41
$0.77
$9.59
Providence
Appliance Structural
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
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Page 8
Rent Providence Multi-Family 1 & 2 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$0.57
$0.64
$0.73
$0.57
$1.10
$1.17
$0.32
$1.18
$0.11
$0.23
$0.61
$7.23
Downcity/East Side
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
East Bay
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Fall River
$0.72
$1.28
$0.84
$0.61
$1.51
$1.33
$0.39
$1.26
$0.09
$0.09
$0.51
$8.63
Kent County
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Middletown
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
New Bedford
$0.72
$1.28
$0.84
$0.61
$1.51
$1.33
$0.39
$1.26
$0.09
$0.09
$0.51
$8.63
Newport
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Northeastern Provid…
$0.54
$0.54
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$7.00
Outlying Bristol Cou…
$0.72
$1.28
$0.84
$0.61
$1.51
$1.33
$0.39
$1.26
$0.09
$0.09
$0.51
$8.63
Outlying Newport C…
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Outlying Providence… $0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Southeastern Provi…
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Taunton
$0.72
$1.28
$0.84
$0.61
$1.51
$1.33
$0.39
$1.26
$0.09
$0.09
$0.51
$8.63
Warwick/West War…
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Washington County
$0.54
$0.53
$0.71
$0.56
$1.03
$1.14
$0.31
$1.17
$0.12
$0.25
$0.63
$6.99
Providence
Appliance Structural
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
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Page 9
Construction Providence Multi-Family A large supply wave could hit Providence in the coming quarters as close to 1,300 units are underway across the metro, one of the largest amounts in decades. Such a wave of new supply represents approximately 3% of total inventory. While this pales in comparison to supplyheavy Boston, where properties underway represent 9% of inventory, it is proportionally higher than the share in many other New England markets. New Haven, for example, under construction properties represent less than 2% of total inventory. . Many of the new deliveries, particularly near the urban core, are targeted at students. Vision Properties is underway on 201 units at their Edge College Hill with plans for an additional 227 units next door. The community is specifically marketed to students from Brown, RISD and Johnson & Wales and is within walking distance from each of their campuses. After finishing the conversion of the historic South Street Landing complex for Brown University and Nursing Education Center, Ventas is underway on 174 unit student housing residence for graduate, medical and upper level nursing students. Others are strategically located near transit stations. Nearby Vision's Edge on College Hill, Trilogy Development has begun work on 169 units adjacent to
the Providence Amtrak Station. Rents for the community will be around $2,000 and $2,700 for one and two bedrooms respectively, approximately 30% higher than the rate for other 4 & 5 star properties in the market. Developers noted that the project would not have been possible without a tax credit from the Rebuild RI, a program used to help narrow the gap for how developers face similar building costs in other metro but don't have the rents in Providence to justify construction. Construction is almost entirely concentrated in Downcity/East Side, East Bay and Northeastern Providence County submarkets. The East Bay Submarket in particular has roughly 600 units under construction or recently delivered, representing a 33% increase from the previous stock. However, this submarket is very small with only 1,800 units and is a wealthier section of the metro dominated by singlefamily homes. This substantial jump in inventory is driven primarily by two projects, American Tourister, which delivered 225 units in 2017, and Kettle Point, which will deliver 345 units by 2019. The Downcity/East Side Submarket, home to the highest rents in the city, has also attracted significant recent development. More than half of all the deliveries in Providence in the past year were in this submarket, which has roughly 400 more units under construction.
DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS
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Page 10
Under Construction Properties Providence Multi-Family Properties
Units
Percent of Inventory
Avg. No. Units
12
1,321
2.7%
110
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES
UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
1
45 Division St
Rating
Units
Stories
Start
Complete
214
-
Jan-2018
Sep-2019
2
Edge College Hill 169 Canal St
201
15
Oct-2017
Jul-2018
3
The Commons at Provid… 3 Park Row West St
169
-
Dec-2016
Sep-2018
4
Pontiac Mills Apartments 334 Knight St
150
3
Feb-2016
Dec-2018
5
Kettle Point Kettlepoint Ave
130
-
Jun-2017
Jul-2018
6
Lofts at Lyman Mill 184 Woonasquatucket Ave
101
3
Feb-2016
Jul-2018
7
Lofts at Tourister Mill Ph… 91 Main St
100
3
Apr-2015
Jul-2018
Developer/Owner
Peregrine Group, LLC Vision Companies Vision Companies Trilogy Development LLC William Deluca Union Mill Llc Churchill & Banks Companies LLC ARCO Midcon, LLC Robert P & Charlene A Terino Brady Sullivan Properties Brady Sullivan Properties
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Page 11
Under Construction Properties Providence Multi-Family UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
Rating
Units
Stories
Start
Complete
8
Kettle Point Phase II Kettlepoint Ave
90
-
Mar-2018
Oct-2019
9
Highland Hills Phase II 210 Highland Corporate Dr
65
4
Oct-2015
Jul-2018
10
Riverview Meadows - Phâ€Åš 1 Meadow Dr
59
-
Dec-2017
Jul-2018
30
6
Dec-2016
Dec-2018
12
2
Jan-2018
Jul-2018
11 12
44 Hospital St 123 Liberty St
Developer/Owner
Economic Development Fndtn Highland Hills Apts II LLC Sophia Cuyegkeng New Bedford Housing Authority
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Page 12
Sales Providence Multi-Family Multifamily investors have begun to take note of Providence̢۪s improving multifamily fundamentals, and 2017 was a record year for both sales volume and pricing. While many cities across the U.S., including nearby Boston, have seen a comparative dip in multifamily investment, Providence has been surging. Historically many national investors may have been hesitant to buy here, due to the metro̢۪s slow-growing economy and high real estate taxes. As vacancies have fallen and rent growth has performed well, institutional investors have begun to take notice. Perhaps also contributing to the rise in investment here has been
skyrocketing pricing in Boston. Many investors buy in both markets, and while pricing for the average apartment community in Boston has surged $150,000 over the national average, Providence's tracks $400,000 below the nation's. That is not to say that Providence hasn̢۪t seen recent pricing gains. Some properties even command close to $200,000 per unit, rarely seen before this cycle. One such trade was Jones Street Investment Partners' June 2017 acquisition of Cumberland Crossing in Cumberland. This 288-unit garden-style apartment was built in 2000 and traded for $57.5 million, or $200,000/unit, at a 5.9% cap rate.
SALES VOLUME & MARKET SALE PRICE PER UNIT
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Sales Past 12 Months Providence Multi-Family Sale Comparables
Avg. Price/Unit (thous.)
Average Price (mil.)
Average Vacancy at Sale
109
$157
$3.1
6.1%
SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS
SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS Sales Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
Sale Price
$107,500
$3,071,241
$395,764
$57,500,000
Price Per Unit
$17,916
$156,508
$58,333
$285,372
5.5%
7.9%
8.0%
12.4%
Vacancy Rate at Sale
0%
6.1%
0%
66.7%
Time Since Sale in Months
1.0
6.7
7.9
12.0
Property Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
Property Size in Units
5
16
6
288
Number of Floors
2
2
3
4
Average Unit SF
0
581
675
1,155
1870
1919
1906
2016
Cap Rate
Year Built Star Rating
2.2
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Page 14
Sales Past 12 Months Providence Multi-Family RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES Property Information Property Name/Address
1
Cumberland Crossing 100 Crossing Dr
2
East Main 274 E Main St
3
West Village 792 West St
4
Terraces of Western Cranston 100 Elena St
5
County Green Apartments 2050-2100 County St
6 7 8
254 Wayland Ave 395 Purchase St 163 Elmwood Avenue 163 Elmwood Ave
9 10 11
186 Waterman St 402 S Main St 461 Elmwood Avenue 461 Elmwood Ave
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
515 E School St 111-115 East St 134 Benefit St 33-45 Webster St 48 S Union St 280 Ferris Ave 165 Roosevelt St 2-24 Oakleigh Ave 236-240 S Main St
Sale Information
Rating
Yr Built
Units
Vacancy
Sale Date
Price
Price/Unit
Price/SF
-
2000
288
6.6%
6/28/2017
$57,500,000
$199,652
$165
-
2016
188
13.8%
3/5/2018
$53,650,000
$285,372
$186
-
2008
200
2.1%
9/19/2017
$52,616,163
$263,080
$199
-
1989
216
10.7%
7/21/2017
$31,100,000
$143,981
$183
-
1988
36
2.8%
7/17/2017
$4,300,000
$119,444
$105
-
-
8
0%
6/14/2017
$1,850,000
$231,250
$175
-
1971
12
0%
11/1/2017
$1,650,000
$137,500
$180
-
1887
11
0%
4/9/2018
$1,538,704
$139,882
$183
-
1900
18
5.6%
12/26/2017
$1,300,000
$72,222
$191
-
1923
30
3.3%
6/22/2017
$1,276,000
$42,533
$40
-
1930
18
5.6%
4/9/2018
$1,250,424
$69,468
$110
-
1880
8
0%
4/9/2018
$1,152,266
$144,033
$186
-
1910
8
0%
10/2/2017
$1,029,500
$128,687
$194
-
1900
8
0%
12/11/2017
$972,000
$121,500
$232
-
1970
19
0%
9/20/2017
$950,000
$50,000
$62
-
1900
5
0%
4/9/2018
$924,882
$184,976
$222
-
1965
15
0%
10/3/2017
$875,000
$58,333
$69
-
1988
5
0%
10/16/2017
$840,000
$168,000
$115
-
1905
12
0%
12/15/2017
$775,000
$64,583
$53
-
1900
10
0%
2/1/2018
$760,000
$76,000
$124
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Page 15
Economy Providence Multi-Family Despite Providence’s proximity to Boston it has no greater correlation to Boston’s economy than it has to U.S. as a whole. This is surprising given the fact that the metro includes all of Bristol County in Massachusetts with towns such as Attleboro and Taunton, where a good portion of the residents commute to Boston for work. The Worcester metro also borders Boston, but its employment trends mirror Boston more closely than Providence, not that employment trends in The Renaissance City are dramatically different from Beantown, it’s just not tied to Boston like other nearby metros are. If you were to plot job growth on a chart for Boston and Providence you’d notice that the two lines are similar, but that some recessions hit one metro more than the other and that during up cycles, Boston’s growth slightly outpaces that of Providence, which while it may not look like much, does add up over time. For example, from 1970 to today, Providence’s employment base has expanded by 44%, while Boston’s has grown by 71%, However, neither are stalwarts of growth, as nationally the total number of jobs has increased by 105% over that period. Just like Boston, Providence has a large concentration of health services jobs. However, this subsector is not the most dynamic, which cuts both ways: Growth rarely gets above 5%, but on the flipside, it has not seen two consecutive quarters of losses going back to 1970 if not longer. So while this subsector is great to be concentrated in when the economy is in recession, it’s not going to be a bastion of job growth when things are hot. Over the past five years, growth has been poor, averaging only 1% annually.
Growth in construction employment is currently as good as it’s been in the metro since the 1990s, enjoying the best rate of expansion of any of Providence’s super sectors. In the summer of 2017, construction employment growth reached a whopping 12% annually. The tremendous expansion of construction jobs has been driven by Boston’s extremely strong housing market and that metro’s staggering amount of apartment construction. It is quite easy for workers in this sector in Providence to compete for jobs in the southern suburbs of Boston, or even in the city itself, which is an hour and 20 minutes’ drive from downtown Providence at the time in the morning when people in this sector usually get to work. However, construction employment is a smaller component of Providence’s total employment than it is for the average U.S. metro, so this superb growth will not have a big ripple effect. Lastly, one side effect of this growth is that construction costs have been rising in Boston, and this could be playing out in Providence too, due to the overlap of the labor force. There are two major drags on employment growth in Providence: the government and manufacturing super sectors, which accounting for a combined 22% of total employment. Both of these sectors are detriments to the metro’s economy because they have been steadily contracting since the early ’70s if not longer. For example, in 1970 about 25% of all jobs across the country were manufacturing jobs, but Providence’s share was much higher at 40%. Today those numbers are both 9%, so the metro has closed the gap quite a bit, but it was a painful process for the local economy.
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Page 16
Economy Providence Multi-Family PROVIDENCE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS Current Jobs
Current Growth
10 Yr Historical
5 Yr Forecast
NAICS Industry
Jobs
LQ
Market
US
Market
US
Market
US
Manufacturing
67
1.1
3.03%
-0.41%
-1.63%
-1.06%
-0.87%
-1.24%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
127
0.9
0.09%
1.28%
-0.38%
0.45%
0.01%
0.26%
80
1.0
-0.91%
0.48%
-0.57%
0.34%
-0.06%
0.27%
Financial Activities
41
1.0
1.67%
0.64%
-0.09%
0.27%
0.59%
0.76%
Government
91
0.8
0.24%
0.10%
-0.17%
-0.06%
0.33%
0.52%
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
34
0.9
6.69%
3.93%
0.86%
-0.27%
1.82%
1.60%
Education and Health Services
159
1.4
0.97%
1.56%
1.18%
2.03%
0.59%
1.27%
Professional and Business Services
92
0.9
4.04%
2.49%
2.29%
1.55%
1.24%
1.48%
Information
10
0.7
-2.46%
0.54%
-3.54%
-0.94%
0.00%
0.29%
Leisure and Hospitality
84
1.0
0.94%
1.77%
1.33%
1.80%
0.84%
1.29%
Other Services
34
1.2
2.98%
0.73%
0.85%
0.44%
0.11%
0.41%
Total Employment
739
1.0
1.62%
1.28%
0.40%
0.70%
0.47%
0.79%
Retail Trade
Source: Moody's Analytics LQ = Location Quotient
YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH
Source: Moody̢۪s Analytics
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Page 17
Economy Providence Multi-Family DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Current Level Demographic Category
Current Change
10-Year Change
Forecast Change
Metro
U.S.
Metro
U.S.
Metro
U.S.
Metro
U.S.
Population
1,622,088
327,863,342
0.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
0.1%
0.7%
Households
653,841
126,048,680
0.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.8%
0.5%
1.1%
Median Household Income
$64,455
$60,656
1.5%
3.5%
1.7%
1.6%
2.3%
3.0%
Labor Force
851,267
161,638,901
0%
1.0%
-0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.8%
4.5%
4.1%
0%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-
-
Unemployment
Source: Moody̢۪s Analytics
POPULATION GROWTH
LABOR FORCE GROWTH
INCOME GROWTH
Source: Moody's Analytics
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Page 18
Submarkets Providence Multi-Family PROVIDENCE SUBMARKETS
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Page 19
Submarkets Providence Multi-Family SUBMARKET INVENTORY Inventory No.
Submarket
12 Month Deliveries
Under Construction
Bldgs
Units
% Market
Rank
Bldgs
Units
Percent
Rank
Bldgs
Units
Percent
Rank
1
Downcity/East Side
315
5,727
11.9%
3
1
22
0.4%
6
3
400
7.0%
1
2
East Bay
42
2,031
4.2%
9
1
190
9.4%
2
3
320
15.8%
3
3
Fall River
801
8,137
16.9%
1
1
101
1.2%
4
0
0
0%
-
4
Kent County
15
975
2.0%
11
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
5
Middletown
6
New Bedford
7
Newport
8 9 10 11
6
1,151
2.4%
10
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
425
4,092
8.5%
7
0
0
0%
-
1
12
0.3%
6
8
539
1.1%
14
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
Northeastern Providence…
457
7,291
15.1%
2
2
192
2.6%
1
3
380
5.2%
2
Outlying Bristol County
114
5,148
10.7%
4
1
81
1.6%
5
0
0
0%
-
Outlying Newport County
6
326
0.7%
15
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
Outlying Providence County
22
955
2.0%
12
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
12
Southeastern Providence…
311
4,241
8.8%
6
1
102
2.4%
3
0
0
0%
-
13
Taunton
163
2,390
5.0%
8
0
0
0%
-
1
59
2.5%
5
14
Warwick/West Warwick
67
4,438
9.2%
5
0
0
0%
-
1
150
3.4%
4
15
Washington County
22
746
1.5%
13
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
SUBMARKET RENT Asking Rents No.
Submarket
Per Unit
Per SF
1
Downcity/East Side
$1,691
2
East Bay
$1,338
3
Fall River
4
Kent County
5
Effective Rents
Rank
Yr. Growth
Per Unit
Per SF
Rank
Yr. Growth
Concession
$1.93
1
2.7%
$1,681
$1.45
10
0.3%
$1,336
$1,125
$1.33
13
4.1%
$1,509
$1.29
15
2.9%
Middletown
$1,336
$1.46
8
6
New Bedford
$1,264
$1.30
7
Newport
$1,434
$1.60
8
Northeastern Providence…
$1,213
9
Outlying Bristol County
$1,568
10
Outlying Newport County
11 12
Rank
$1.92
1
4.2%
0.6%
8
$1.44
10
0.5%
0.2%
13
$1,118
$1.32
13
4.2%
0.6%
7
$1,506
$1.29
15
3.9%
0.2%
12
-0.6%
$1,335
$1.46
8
-0.6%
0.1%
15
14
6.7%
$1,260
$1.29
14
6.9%
0.3%
11
4
8.5%
$1,415
$1.58
4
7.0%
1.3%
2
$1.35
12
1.9%
$1,207
$1.34
12
2.1%
0.5%
9
$1.61
2
4.0%
$1,556
$1.60
2
4.1%
0.8%
6
$1,315
$1.55
7
2.3%
$1,299
$1.53
7
5.5%
1.2%
4
Outlying Providence County
$1,463
$1.55
6
5.2%
$1,450
$1.54
6
4.7%
0.9%
5
Southeastern Providence…
$1,250
$1.44
11
3.0%
$1,234
$1.42
11
3.7%
1.3%
3
13
Taunton
$1,351
$1.61
3
5.5%
$1,330
$1.58
3
4.6%
1.6%
1
14
Warwick/West Warwick
$1,291
$1.45
9
4.9%
$1,286
$1.45
9
6.5%
0.4%
10
15
Washington County
$1,504
$1.57
5
1.8%
$1,503
$1.57
5
2.5%
0.1%
14
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Page 20
Submarkets Providence Multi-Family SUBMARKET VACANCY & ABSORPTION Vacancy No.
12 Month Absorption
Submarket
Units
Percent
Rank
Units
% of Inv
Rank
Construct. Ratio
1
Downcity/East Side
277
4.8%
14
85
1.5%
4
0.3
2
East Bay
197
9.7%
15
73
3.6%
6
2.6
3
Fall River
303
3.7%
11
92
1.1%
3
1.1
4
Kent County
32
3.3%
10
(2)
-0.3%
15
-
5
Middletown
22
1.9%
4
5
0.5%
13
-
6
New Bedford
85
2.1%
5
7
0.2%
11
-
7
Newport
3
0.6%
1
9
1.6%
9
-
8
Northeastern Providence…
296
4.1%
12
269
3.7%
1
0.7
9
Outlying Bristol County
148
2.9%
8
100
1.9%
2
0.8
10
Outlying Newport County
10
3.1%
9
6
1.9%
12
-
11
Outlying Providence County
25
2.7%
7
(1)
-0.2%
14
-
12
Southeastern Providence…
173
4.1%
13
83
2.0%
5
1.2
13
Taunton
43
1.8%
3
7
0.3%
10
-
14
Warwick/West Warwick
107
2.4%
6
12
0.3%
7
-
15
Washington County
12
1.6%
2
10
1.4%
8
-
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Page 21
Appendix Providence Multi-Family OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2022
50,976
636
1.3%
513
1.0%
1.2
2021
50,340
566
1.1%
403
0.8%
1.4
2020
49,774
394
0.8%
347
0.7%
1.1
2019
49,380
765
1.6%
563
1.1%
1.4
2018
48,615
821
1.7%
692
1.4%
1.2
YTD
48,187
393
0.8%
406
0.8%
1.0
2017
47,794
600
1.3%
825
1.7%
0.7
2016
47,194
968
2.1%
1,055
2.2%
0.9
2015
46,226
590
1.3%
688
1.5%
0.9
2014
45,636
197
0.4%
364
0.8%
0.5
2013
45,439
127
0.3%
324
0.7%
0.4
2012
45,312
210
0.5%
288
0.6%
0.7
2011
45,102
18
0%
410
0.9%
0
2010
45,084
246
0.5%
187
0.4%
1.3
2009
44,838
270
0.6%
328
0.7%
0.8
2008
44,568
618
1.4%
418
0.9%
1.5
2007
43,950
586
1.4%
495
1.1%
1.2
2006
43,364
394
0.9%
399
0.9%
1.0
4 & 5 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2022
9,975
657
7.1%
549
5.5%
1.2
2021
9,318
586
6.7%
433
4.6%
1.4
2020
8,732
314
3.7%
281
3.2%
1.1
2019
8,418
684
8.8%
515
6.1%
1.3
2018
7,734
460
6.3%
269
3.5%
1.7
YTD
7,565
291
4.0%
151
2.0%
1.9
2017
7,274
466
6.8%
519
7.1%
0.9
2016
6,808
694
11.4%
753
11.1%
0.9
2015
6,114
512
9.1%
395
6.5%
1.3
2014
5,602
233
4.3%
177
3.2%
1.3
2013
5,369
5
0.1%
(12)
-0.2%
-
2012
5,364
0
0%
16
0.3%
0
2011
5,364
18
0.3%
76
1.4%
0.2
2010
5,346
0
0%
49
0.9%
0
2009
5,346
270
5.3%
341
6.4%
0.8
2008
5,076
564
12.5%
454
8.9%
1.2
2007
4,512
496
12.4%
371
8.2%
1.3
2006
4,016
300
8.1%
279
6.9%
1.1
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Page 22
Appendix Providence Multi-Family 3 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2022
18,444
0
0%
(11)
-0.1%
0
2021
18,444
0
0%
(3)
0%
0
2020
18,444
101
0.6%
105
0.6%
1.0
2019
18,343
101
0.6%
92
0.5%
1.1
2018
18,242
368
2.1%
424
2.3%
0.9
YTD
17,976
102
0.6%
238
1.3%
0.4
2017
17,874
134
0.8%
224
1.3%
0.6
2016
17,740
279
1.6%
225
1.3%
1.2
2015
17,461
78
0.4%
155
0.9%
0.5
2014
17,383
(20)
-0.1%
107
0.6%
-
2013
17,403
122
0.7%
172
1.0%
0.7
2012
17,281
248
1.5%
288
1.7%
0.9
2011
17,033
0
0%
170
1.0%
0
2010
17,033
251
1.5%
190
1.1%
1.3
2009
16,782
0
0%
(11)
-0.1%
0
2008
16,782
0
0%
(27)
-0.2%
0
2007
16,782
90
0.5%
108
0.6%
0.8
2006
16,692
94
0.6%
135
0.8%
0.7
1 & 2 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2022
22,557
(21)
-0.1%
(25)
-0.1%
0.8
2021
22,578
(20)
-0.1%
(27)
-0.1%
0.7
2020
22,598
(21)
-0.1%
(39)
-0.2%
0.5
2019
22,619
(20)
-0.1%
(44)
-0.2%
0.5
2018
22,639
(7)
0%
(1)
0%
7.0
YTD
22,646
0
0%
17
0.1%
0
2017
22,646
0
0%
82
0.4%
0
2016
22,646
(5)
0%
77
0.3%
-
2015
22,651
0
0%
138
0.6%
0
2014
22,651
(16)
-0.1%
80
0.4%
-
2013
22,667
0
0%
164
0.7%
0
2012
22,667
(38)
-0.2%
(16)
-0.1%
2.4
2011
22,705
0
0%
164
0.7%
0
2010
22,705
(5)
0%
(52)
-0.2%
0.1
2009
22,710
0
0%
(2)
0%
0
2008
22,710
54
0.2%
(9)
0%
-
2007
22,656
0
0%
16
0.1%
0
2006
22,656
0
0%
(15)
-0.1%
0
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Page 23
Appendix Providence Multi-Family OVERALL VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
2022
2,413
5.0%
0.2
$1,432
-
1.0%
0.1
$1,423
-
2021
2,290
4.8%
0.3
$1,419
-
0.9%
0.5
$1,410
-
2020
2,126
4.5%
0.1
$1,406
-
0.4%
(0.5)
$1,397
-
2019
2,078
4.4%
0.4
$1,400
-
0.9%
(2.5)
$1,392
-
2018
1,875
4.1%
0.4
$1,388
-
3.4%
(0.2)
$1,379
-
YTD
1,733
3.6%
(0.1)
$1,373
$1.51
2.3%
(1.3)
$1,364
$1.50
2017
1,745
3.7%
(0.5)
$1,342
$1.48
3.6%
0.5
$1,330
$1.46
2016
1,972
4.2%
(0.3)
$1,296
$1.43
3.1%
(2.0)
$1,280
$1.41
2015
2,059
4.5%
(0.3)
$1,257
$1.38
5.1%
2.7
$1,249
$1.37
2014
2,153
4.7%
(0.4)
$1,196
$1.31
2.4%
(0.2)
$1,190
$1.31
2013
2,319
5.1%
(0.4)
$1,168
$1.28
2.6%
1.9
$1,161
$1.28
2012
2,515
5.6%
(0.2)
$1,138
$1.25
0.8%
0.2
$1,129
$1.24
2011
2,592
5.7%
(0.9)
$1,129
$1.24
0.6%
(0.9)
$1,122
$1.23
2010
2,981
6.6%
0.1
$1,123
$1.23
1.5%
4.5
$1,115
$1.23
2009
2,922
6.5%
(0.2)
$1,107
$1.22
-3.0%
(3.7)
$1,099
$1.21
2008
2,979
6.7%
0.4
$1,141
$1.25
0.7%
(2.3)
$1,132
$1.24
2007
2,780
6.3%
0.1
$1,133
$1.24
3.1%
0.3
$1,125
$1.24
2006
2,689
6.2%
(0.1)
$1,099
$1.21
2.8%
-
$1,092
$1.20
4 & 5 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
2022
993
10.0%
0.5
$1,773
-
1.1%
0.1
$1,757
-
2021
885
9.6%
1.1
$1,754
-
1.0%
0.5
$1,739
-
2020
732
8.4%
0.1
$1,737
-
0.5%
(0.5)
$1,722
-
2019
699
8.3%
1.4
$1,729
-
1.0%
(2.5)
$1,714
-
2018
530
6.8%
2.2
$1,713
-
3.4%
0.1
$1,697
-
YTD
481
6.4%
1.7
$1,694
$1.62
2.3%
(1.0)
$1,680
$1.61
2017
339
4.7%
(1.1)
$1,656
$1.59
3.3%
1.7
$1,634
$1.57
2016
394
5.8%
(1.6)
$1,603
$1.54
1.6%
(4.5)
$1,573
$1.51
2015
451
7.4%
1.4
$1,577
$1.51
6.2%
3.8
$1,562
$1.50
2014
335
6.0%
0.8
$1,486
$1.43
2.3%
(0.8)
$1,477
$1.42
2013
279
5.2%
0.3
$1,452
$1.39
3.1%
2.3
$1,441
$1.38
2012
263
4.9%
(0.3)
$1,407
$1.35
0.9%
0.3
$1,393
$1.34
2011
278
5.2%
(1.1)
$1,395
$1.34
0.6%
(1.0)
$1,386
$1.33
2010
336
6.3%
(0.9)
$1,386
$1.33
1.6%
4.7
$1,376
$1.32
2009
386
7.2%
(1.8)
$1,364
$1.31
-3.1%
(3.8)
$1,352
$1.30
2008
456
9.0%
1.3
$1,407
$1.35
0.7%
(2.5)
$1,394
$1.34
2007
346
7.7%
2.2
$1,397
$1.34
3.2%
0.2
$1,386
$1.33
2006
219
5.5%
0.1
$1,353
$1.30
3.1%
-
$1,345
$1.29
6/13/2018 Copyrighted report licensed to United Multi Family Corporation - 58098.
Page 24
Appendix Providence Multi-Family 3 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
2022
650
3.5%
0.1
$1,418
-
0.9%
0.1
$1,411
-
2021
639
3.5%
0
$1,406
-
0.8%
0.5
$1,399
-
2020
637
3.5%
0
$1,395
-
0.3%
(0.5)
$1,387
-
2019
641
3.5%
0
$1,391
-
0.9%
(2.6)
$1,383
-
2018
631
3.5%
(0.4)
$1,379
-
3.5%
(0.3)
$1,371
-
YTD
551
3.1%
(0.8)
$1,364
$1.48
2.3%
(1.4)
$1,356
$1.47
2017
688
3.8%
(0.5)
$1,333
$1.45
3.8%
0
$1,321
$1.43
2016
778
4.4%
0.2
$1,284
$1.39
3.7%
(1.0)
$1,271
$1.38
2015
724
4.1%
(0.4)
$1,238
$1.34
4.7%
2.4
$1,232
$1.34
2014
799
4.6%
(0.7)
$1,182
$1.28
2.3%
0.1
$1,178
$1.28
2013
926
5.3%
(0.3)
$1,155
$1.25
2.3%
1.8
$1,149
$1.25
2012
975
5.6%
(0.3)
$1,130
$1.23
0.5%
(0.2)
$1,122
$1.22
2011
1,016
6.0%
(1.0)
$1,124
$1.22
0.7%
(0.6)
$1,117
$1.21
2010
1,185
7.0%
0.3
$1,116
$1.21
1.3%
4.3
$1,109
$1.20
2009
1,123
6.7%
0.1
$1,101
$1.20
-3.0%
(3.7)
$1,094
$1.19
2008
1,113
6.6%
0.2
$1,135
$1.23
0.7%
(1.9)
$1,128
$1.22
2007
1,086
6.5%
(0.1)
$1,127
$1.22
2.6%
(0.2)
$1,120
$1.22
2006
1,105
6.6%
(0.3)
$1,098
$1.19
2.9%
-
$1,091
$1.18
1 & 2 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
2022
771
3.9%
0
$1,125
-
1.0%
0.1
$1,121
-
2021
766
3.8%
0
$1,114
-
1.0%
0.5
$1,109
-
2020
758
3.8%
0.1
$1,103
-
0.5%
(0.5)
$1,099
-
2019
739
3.7%
0.1
$1,098
-
1.0%
(2.0)
$1,093
-
2018
714
3.6%
0.4
$1,086
-
3.0%
(0.6)
$1,082
-
YTD
702
3.1%
(0.1)
$1,076
$1.42
2.0%
(1.6)
$1,072
$1.41
2017
719
3.2%
(0.4)
$1,054
$1.39
3.6%
(0.2)
$1,050
$1.39
2016
801
3.5%
(0.4)
$1,018
$1.34
3.8%
(0.8)
$1,013
$1.33
2015
883
3.9%
(0.6)
$981
$1.29
4.6%
1.9
$977
$1.29
2014
1,019
4.5%
(0.4)
$938
$1.23
2.7%
0
$931
$1.22
2013
1,114
4.9%
(0.7)
$913
$1.20
2.7%
1.5
$910
$1.19
2012
1,277
5.6%
(0.1)
$889
$1.16
1.1%
0.9
$885
$1.16
2011
1,297
5.7%
(0.7)
$879
$1.15
0.2%
(1.3)
$874
$1.14
2010
1,460
6.4%
0.2
$878
$1.15
1.5%
4.5
$872
$1.14
2009
1,413
6.2%
0
$865
$1.13
-3.0%
(3.7)
$859
$1.12
2008
1,411
6.2%
0.3
$892
$1.17
0.7%
(3.1)
$886
$1.16
2007
1,348
6.0%
(0.1)
$885
$1.16
3.8%
1.6
$880
$1.15
2006
1,365
6.0%
0.1
$853
$1.12
2.2%
-
$848
$1.11
6/13/2018 Copyrighted report licensed to United Multi Family Corporation - 58098.
Page 25
Appendix Providence Multi-Family OVERALL SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$135,410
189
Cap Rate
7.4%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$133,920
187
7.4%
2020
-
-
-
-
-
-
$133,485
187
7.4%
2019
-
-
-
-
-
-
$137,072
192
7.2%
2018
-
-
-
-
-
-
$140,452
196
6.9%
YTD
41
$68.2 M
1.0%
$2,435,927
$178,083
7.7%
$140,768
197
6.9%
2017
132
$254.7 M
4.7%
$2,521,532
$127,274
8.2%
$138,964
194
6.9%
2016
85
$145.2 M
3.2%
$1,962,791
$101,642
9.4%
$126,129
176
7.1%
2015
73
$118.4 M
3.0%
$1,820,977
$90,700
8.4%
$120,132
168
7.1%
2014
77
$72.3 M
2.5%
$963,802
$70,660
10.5%
$109,120
152
7.4%
2013
82
$190.1 M
5.5%
$2,468,286
$76,482
9.0%
$101,189
141
7.6%
2012
63
$38.7 M
1.9%
$773,287
$55,632
11.1%
$99,202
139
7.6%
2011
46
$61.0 M
2.3%
$1,648,366
$77,398
6.6%
$95,364
133
7.6%
2010
38
$18.0 M
0.8%
$600,546
$54,928
9.1%
$86,474
121
7.9%
2009
76
$73.6 M
3.0%
$1,167,809
$59,047
7.5%
$65,529
92
8.8%
2008
38
$35.3 M
1.0%
$1,103,057
$84,647
10.8%
$71,565
100
8.6%
2007
26
$42.5 M
1.6%
$1,701,009
$61,542
9.4%
$89,798
125
7.8%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
4 & 5 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$190,678
191
6.2%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$188,442
189
6.2%
2020
-
-
-
-
-
-
$187,871
188
6.2%
2019
-
-
-
-
-
-
$193,811
194
6.0%
2018
-
-
-
-
-
-
$199,688
200
5.7%
YTD
1
$53.6 M
2.5%
$53,650,000
$285,372
6.0%
$206,813
207
5.6%
2017
2
$66.0 M
3.9%
$33,008,082
$231,636
6.0%
$201,541
202
5.6%
2016
1
$59.8 M
4.4%
$59,750,000
$199,167
6.0%
$183,309
184
5.9%
2015
2
$40.2 M
3.9%
$20,122,500
$167,688
-
$175,543
176
5.9%
2014
-
-
-
-
-
-
$159,717
160
6.1%
2013
1
$28.2 M
4.2%
$28,250,000
$126,116
6.3%
$147,094
147
6.3%
2012
-
-
-
-
-
-
$143,823
144
6.2%
2011
2
$36.0 M
7.5%
$36,000,000
$180,000
5.2%
$136,258
136
6.3%
2010
-
-
-
-
-
-
$122,818
123
6.6%
2009
2
$21.2 M
4.7%
$10,600,000
$84,462
-
$92,533
93
7.4%
2008
-
-
-
-
-
-
$99,838
100
7.2%
2007
1
$2.4 M
1.9%
$2,400,000
$28,235
-
$124,675
125
6.6%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
6/13/2018 Copyrighted report licensed to United Multi Family Corporation - 58098.
Page 26
Appendix Providence Multi-Family 3 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$151,353
183
7.1%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$149,737
181
7.1%
2020
-
-
-
-
-
-
$149,309
181
7.1%
2019
-
-
-
-
-
-
$153,418
186
6.9%
2018
-
-
-
-
-
-
$157,310
190
6.7%
YTD
7
$2.5 M
0.3%
$409,332
$53,391
8.0%
$156,549
189
6.6%
2017
24
$147.8 M
5.9%
$6,718,818
$143,231
7.1%
$155,879
189
6.6%
2016
16
$12.6 M
1.0%
$967,541
$88,578
8.8%
$137,587
167
6.9%
2015
13
$62.6 M
4.1%
$4,818,776
$88,231
6.6%
$132,661
161
6.9%
2014
16
$41.1 M
3.1%
$2,739,447
$95,120
9.6%
$121,340
147
7.1%
2013
13
$124.3 M
8.5%
$11,296,032
$84,817
7.0%
$113,584
137
7.3%
2012
8
$21.3 M
1.8%
$3,038,143
$69,957
12.3%
$112,068
136
7.2%
2011
3
$9.5 M
0.8%
$4,756,500
$68,935
-
$109,481
133
7.2%
2010
6
$11.7 M
1.0%
$2,916,250
$73,829
8.8%
$99,398
120
7.5%
2009
7
$42.8 M
3.9%
$6,120,714
$65,713
7.4%
$75,853
92
8.4%
2008
6
$22.2 M
1.4%
$4,430,000
$96,304
8.6%
$82,624
100
8.1%
2007
3
$28.3 M
2.3%
$9,425,000
$73,825
7.1%
$103,708
126
7.3%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
1 & 2 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$103,032
195
8.0%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$101,908
193
8.0%
2020
-
-
-
-
-
-
$101,516
192
8.0%
2019
-
-
-
-
-
-
$103,850
196
7.8%
2018
-
-
-
-
-
-
$105,935
200
7.6%
YTD
33
$12.1 M
1.1%
$576,189
$81,208
9.2%
$104,450
198
7.5%
2017
106
$40.8 M
4.0%
$530,449
$59,714
8.9%
$103,524
196
7.5%
2016
68
$72.9 M
4.6%
$1,215,309
$73,879
9.6%
$96,881
183
7.6%
2015
58
$15.5 M
1.8%
$309,489
$43,590
8.7%
$90,669
171
7.7%
2014
61
$31.2 M
2.6%
$519,891
$52,781
10.7%
$81,606
154
8.0%
2013
68
$37.6 M
3.6%
$577,718
$47,175
9.7%
$75,201
142
8.4%
2012
55
$17.4 M
2.4%
$404,590
$44,495
11.0%
$73,300
139
8.3%
2011
41
$15.5 M
2.2%
$455,193
$34,392
8.0%
$69,802
132
8.4%
2010
32
$6.4 M
0.9%
$244,284
$37,361
9.4%
$63,460
120
8.7%
2009
67
$9.5 M
1.9%
$176,425
$27,775
7.8%
$47,863
91
9.8%
2008
32
$13.1 M
1.0%
$486,957
$70,309
11.4%
$52,874
100
9.5%
2007
22
$11.9 M
1.0%
$564,297
$53,140
10.6%
$66,530
126
8.5%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
6/13/2018 Copyrighted report licensed to United Multi Family Corporation - 58098.
Page 27
Appendix Providence Multi-Family DELIVERIES & UNDER CONSTRUCTION Inventory
Deliveries
Net Deliveries
Under Construction
Year
Bldgs
Units
Vacancy
Bldgs
Units
Bldgs
Units
Bldgs
Units
2022
-
50,977
4.7%
-
657
-
636
-
-
2021
-
50,341
4.5%
-
586
-
566
-
-
2020
-
49,775
4.3%
-
415
-
395
-
-
2019
-
49,380
4.2%
-
785
-
764
-
-
2018
-
48,616
3.9%
-
828
-
822
-
-
YTD
2,774
48,187
3.6%
3
393
3
393
12
1,321
2017
2,771
47,794
3.7%
5
600
5
600
12
1,398
2016
2,766
47,194
4.2%
8
973
7
968
13
1,507
2015
2,759
46,226
4.5%
7
590
7
590
8
1,213
2014
2,752
45,636
4.7%
3
233
(3)
197
7
590
2013
2,755
45,439
5.1%
2
129
2
129
6
345
2012
2,753
45,312
5.6%
1
248
(4)
210
4
185
2011
2,757
45,102
5.7%
2
18
2
18
1
248
2010
2,755
45,084
6.6%
1
251
0
246
3
266
2009
2,755
44,838
6.5%
3
270
3
270
1
251
2008
2,752
44,568
6.7%
4
618
4
618
3
270
2007
2,748
43,950
6.3%
8
586
8
586
6
748
2006
2,740
43,364
6.2%
5
394
5
394
9
776
6/13/2018 Copyrighted report licensed to United Multi Family Corporation - 58098.
Page 28