Urban Contingency - 2019 - Svartlamon

SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Svartlamon Contingency Plan FOR SEA LEVEL RISE FLOODING

Aratrika Debnath Denisa Koci Ningning Xie

GROUP 5 | AAR 5220 URBAN CONTINGENCY PRACTICE AND 0 PLANNING

CONTENT 1 1

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION

2 3

METHODOLOGY FINDINGS

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CONTINGENCY PLAN

17 18 19

DISCUSSION CONCLUSION REFERENCE

1 1 1 2

3 4 6 7

8 10 13 15 17

Background Planning Context Uniqueness of Svartlamon Vision and Purpose

Vulnerability, Capacity Assessment and Risk Register The Best, Most Likely and Worst Case Approach Stakeholders and Resources Case Study of Olympia City Response Strategy Implementation Plan Operational Support Plan Preparedness Plan Budget

FIGURES

1 1 1 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 14 14

Figure 1 Location of Svartlamon in Trondheim city Figure 2 Overview of Svartlamon area Figure 3 The possible paths of flooding from sea Figure 4 Svartlamon timber houses Figure 5 Svartlamon caravans Figure 6 Methodology Figure 7 five-meter sea level rise with normal storm tide Figure 8 five-meter sea level rise with king tide Figure 9 ten-meter sea level rise with 100-year storm tide Figure 10 possible scene when storm waves strike the coast Figure 11 possible scene after a 100-year storm tide strikes Figure 12 Svartlamon stakeholder network Figure 13 cash flow in the contingency plan

TABLES 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 15 17

Table 1 Vulnerability, Capacity Assessment and Risk Register Table 2 History of Flooding in Trondheim Table 3 Best, Most Likely, and Worst Case Approach Table 4 List of Stakeholders and Resources Table 5 Response Strategies: Degree of Urgency Table 6 Focus of Worst Case: Response Strategies with Time Frame Table 7 Implementation Plan Table 8 Preparedness Plan Table 9 Budget

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

ABSTRACT This report is to develop a contingency plan for Svartlamon community based on the vulnerability, capacity and risk assessment within the hypothetical scenario of a high-density Trondheim city, which is prone to flooding caused by sea level rise, in absence of a disaster management authority but having abundant resources. It follows a framework adapted from IASC contingency planning process, accompanied with secondary data collection from research papers and organization reports as well as primary data collection from on-site observation. Svartlamon demonstrates its uniqueness in community assets, strong in social capital albeit weaker in physical aspects, which offers the possibility to develop a Svartlamon Disaster Committee to facilitate disaster responses in collaboration with other stakeholders, supported by the inflow of resources from Trondheim municipality and NGOs.

Figure 1 Location of Svartlamon in Trondheim city

Keywords: high density, flood, committee, cash-based

INTRODUCTION

Figure 2 Overview of Svartlamon area

Background Trondheim is a very high-density city prone to floods due to sea level rise. The municipality without a disaster management authority has substantial resources.

initiate a movement kindled on the thought to revive the land use, shifting the industrial functions to the outskirts of the city. With help from the city council in Trondheim, Svartlamon later emerged as a pilot project of “experimental urban ecological area” in Norway.

Planning Context Svartlamon is a community of 0.03 km² lying to the north east of Trondheim city centre. Svartlamon is home to 240 people (2018), but is anticipated to increase to around 800 in a few years (in our hypothetical scenario).

The plan (R219b) encourages “new sustainable solutions within management, rehabilitation and new buildings, with a focus on low cost and resource use on every level of the process” and “basing the development on LA21 principles (Local Agenda 21) with a large degree of participation, where competence and resources in the area can be utilized, and the connection to the area is strengthened”- on other words to promote the principles of sustainable living, direct democratic processes, cheap rents and gentle restoration of existing old timber houses. Svartlamon housing foundation was formed to carry out the extensive planning within 3500 square meter area designated for the noble cause.

Situated very near to the sea, the altitude of Svartlamon ranges between 5 and 15 meters. Hypothetically, the sea level will rise to 5 to 10 meters in 30 years, in which case Svartlamon will be just next to the sea, or even partly inundated by sea water. Projection of hazard directed by sea level rise followed by extreme storm surges may lead to different levels of flooding in the area.

Characterised by dynamic activities and low-cost housing solutions, Svartlamon is a hotspot for people searching for contemporary styles of accommodation, leading to the increase in the population density. Strong organisational foundation in the form of a residents’ association supports the dwellers’ well-being. Apart from conserving the existing timber houses and caravans, new ones are being built with low cost materials by residents.

Figure 3 The possible paths of flooding from sea

Uniqueness of Svartlamon Around 1990, Svartlamon was brought to focus to conserve the residential character of that area to get ruined from industrial interventions taking place. People from different professional backgrounds volunteered to

In this scenario of high risk to sea level rise flooding, combined with vulnerable housing structures but well bound organised community, Svartlamon portrays a complex system to respond to flooding disaster.

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Figure 4 Svartlamon timber houses

Figure 5 Svartlamon caravans

METHODOLOGY

Vision and Purpose Vision: The Svartlamon Contingency Plan for Sea Level Rise Flooding will be a community plan that develops strategies to cope with unexpected and unprecedented flooding related to sea level rise, in order to reduce disaster risks and to relieve disaster impacts by addressing vulnerabilities.

This paper focuses on identifying echoed patterns of floods in Trondheim, continuing in setting selected variations and inconsistencies in a contingency planning process on a given scenario. The Scenario provides basic planning assumptions, which would be used to estimate likely needs in terms of both needs of resources and response strategy. Based on that, a contingency plan is developed.

Purpose: • Develop a contingency plan to address humanitarian needs in Svartlamon • Understand how contextual vulnerabilities, capacities and risks relate to disaster • Identify potential impacts and prioritize response actions with time frame • Identify stakeholder responsibilities and potential governance mechanism • Estimate the cost of response actions and the potential cash flow

We started from understanding the scenario and brainstorming over the effect it would have on the city context. Svartlamon is our chosen site, as it fits best the given characteristics on the given scenario. Another important aspect on this process was identifying case studies to help us interpret how other countries experienced and dealt with floods.

The second approach is analyzing the problem. We carried out a Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA). VCA helps us to identify vulnerable population groups and community assets as well as their needs and capacities, and to analyze potential risks about how they will be affected in disasters. Then a review of historical flooding impacts in Trondheim follows. The historical analogy method helps us develop scenarios for future ones by learning from past crises.

Findings of our preliminary research lead to our goals and objectives. Based on vulnerabilities and capacities as well as risks and we concluded above, response strategies are developed to address vulnerabilities.

Responses are categorized into types covering various fields of intervention under different circumstances.

The last step resolves around the development of implementation, operational support and preparedness plans as well as budget in accordance with the response strategies.

Figure 6 Methodology

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

FINDINGS Capacity refers to all resources, aspects and strengths available within an organization, community or society to manage and reduce disaster risks and strengthen resilience. It is important to emphasize people's capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from disasters, rather than simply focusing on the vulnerability that limits them.

Vulnerability, Capacity Assessment and Risk Register Vulnerability, Capacity Assessment (VCA) is used in addressing risks and planning actions to prevent dangers cumulating from these risks. It aims to evaluate how risks threaten community assets, and to bring all forces on the same side, to promote collaboration between authorities, inhabitants and other actors. VCA lays foundation for response actions, and helps to develop the implementation plan, to improve the preparedness for a disaster.

Risk is the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an event, in our case, from the flood caused by sea level rise and storm tide. Wisner et al. (2004) refer to disaster risk = hazard×vulnerability.

Vulnerability is accrued as a long-term process which undermines abilities to deal with new stressors or other changes (Lewis, 1984). Understanding the vulnerability of an asset to climate impacts is valuable to decision making and policy development for future adaptation.

Hazard Flood hazard related to sea level rise and storm tide

The vulnerability, capacity assessment (VCA) and risk register identify the degree to which assets would be affected by sea level rise in Svartlamon. In our VCA table shown below, we structured our analysis in dimensions of social, physical, organizational and institutional vulnerability.

Table 1: VULNERABILITY, CAPACITY ASSESSMENT (VCA) AND RISK REGISTER Social vulnerability

Physical vulnerability

Vulnerability • average life expectancy access to health services, education, infrastructure, etc.

• Comparatively lower income • Fragility of urban farming • Lack of awareness and knowledge about flood and how to cope with it • Physically limited individuals (Disabled, sick and children) • No emergency drinking water storage or emergency electricity generator

Capacity • Self-reliance lifestyle • Skilled personnel • Strong community cohesion, e.g. community associations • covered by national health care service

Potential Risk • People get hurt or even killed by flooding or related events • People not able to recover from financial loss caused by flooding • People without regular water and food supply not able to sustain

• inadequate infrastructure, e.g. flooding resistant protection, good road conditions • lack of emergency shelter • some houses are aged, some are fragile caravans • close to the sea with relatively low elevation • existing sewage and stormwater pipe system not able to hold heavy flood

• good quality communication, e.g. Good access to smart phones and internet • public places and facilities such as kindergarten, Svartlamon concert hall, dance hall, etc.

• close to site with higher elevation

• floods and storm waves from sea affect or damage homes in Svartlamon • backflow of seawater and waste water from sewage system spread disease • Household equipment and furniture is damaged • Flooded roads affect mobility

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Hazard Flood hazard related to sea level rise and storm tide

Continued: VULNERABILITY, CAPACITY ASSESSMENT (VCA) AND RISK REGISTER Vulnerability Organizational vulnerability

Institutional vulnerability

• no disaster management authority or official disasterresponse systems • inexperienced earlywarning systems for unexpected flooding • lack of expert response team • organizations and departments inexperienced with flooding • lack of planned evacuation routes in sea level rise flooding disaster scenarios • no disaster management authority • low awareness and commitment of local authorities to sea level rise disaster reduction • lack of legislation, plans and instructions for local and national flooding disaster management

The Best, Most Likely and Worst Case Approach

Potential Risk • Late response to disaster causing more damage and casualties • inability to coordinate efficiently, which may delay rescue and other necessary support

• Presence of assistance departments, e.g. fire department, police, etc.

• good cooperation with international organizations and EU frame • abundant human resources for disaster response • abundant financial resources for preparedness

• Absent systematic disaster management mechanism leads to lower capacity in disaster coping • may cause more economic loss and casualties

Trondheim based on the research project FloodProBE (2009). These historical flooding events provide good example of possible ranges of impacts in our different scales of scenarios.

The contingency plan adopts the best/most likely/worstcase approach in scenario development. This part investigates into the historical flooding impacts in

Time 910.12.1987

Capacity • Active NGOs, e.g. CARE, Trondheim Red Cross, etc.

• community organizations, e.g.

Svartlamon housing association, Svartlamon resident association, etc.

• Decentralized decisionmaking in Svartlamon

Table 2: HISTORY OF FLOODING IN TRONDHEIM Heavy precipitation, large runoff and flood events

Characteristics of scenarios First 30-40 mm in 20 hours, 2030 mm in the coming 6 hours; and show on the ground equivalent to 20 mm.

95 mm rain and snow melting in two days

Return Interval 10-30 year

Impacts Damages on the roads and houses

40-50 year

30.0105.02.1999

48 mm in 1 day on 04.02.1999

15-20 year

29.07.2007

Rain from midnight to 7-8.00 in the morning with variable intensity in the whole city Intensive rain in 1 hour

100 year

About 100 houses flooded and some roads had to be stopped. One manhole cover was lift at one place due to high pressure in the sewers.

The flood attacked the whole city. Flood warning on 30 January 1999. flooding in basements and on roads was registered in large parts of the city, caused million kroner of economic damages.

60 houses were flooded.

>100 year

Over 100 houses were damaged by floods.

3031.03.1997

13.08.2007

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Table 3: BEST, MOST LIKELY, AND WORST CASE APPROACH

Best case Most likely case Worst case

Hazard scenario 5m sea level rise, with normal storm surge 5m sea level rise, with king tide and waves

10m sea level rise, with 100-year storm tide and waves

Potential impacts Flooding in basements and on roads of low-lying area, causing economic loss, affecting mobility Flooding in basements and on roads, damaging caravans and part of aged houses, causing a lot of economic loss and a small number of people hurt, affecting normal life Flooding inundates the first floor of some low-lying houses, flooding in basements and on roads for higher elevation., causing great economic loss and some casualties, threatening people’s lives

King tide is the highest astronomical tides that predictably occur a few times each year.

The 100-year storm tide is a severe, rarely occurring flood event, a combination of a high astronomical tide and storm surge.

(Olympia Sea Level Rise Response Plan, 2019)

In the best case, the sea level rises 5 meters in 30 years, and the climate change leads to more often extreme weathers such as the storm surges causing coastal flooding in Trondheim.

In the most likely case, the sea level rises 5 meters in 15 years, and it becomes highly probable that the king tides of maximum 5 meters will strike the coasts of Trondheim.

Figure 7 five-meter sea level rise with normal storm tide

In the worst case, the sea level rises 10 meters in 5 years, and it becomes highly probable that the 100-year storm tide higher than 5 meters will strike the coasts of Trondheim.

Figure 8 five-meter sea level rise with king tide

Figure 10 possible scene when storm waves strike the coast

Figure 9 ten-meter sea level rise with 100-year storm tide

Figure 11 possible scene after a 100-year storm tide strikes

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Stakeholders and Resources

indigenous organizations grew up in the course of evolution of Svartlamon with differing ideals, functions and visions – all of them possessing high interest for the development of the area. Together with the residents, they are the immediate respondents to any hazard and possesses knowledge about local resources and historical impacts of disaster in that area and are considered crucial in the process.

An innovative collaboration of complementing capitals stands inevitable in a situation where a responsible disaster management authority is absent. Identifying stakeholders in the contingent situation has been done in 4 strata of the prevailing system: National/international NGOs and multilateral and/or bilateral cooperation organizations, Community level organizations, Governmental institutions and Private sector entities. Understanding how variability of their resources can influence the decisions or execution process, their roles have been further adopted in the implementation plans.

Governmental Institutions This sector of stakeholders is recognized both in local as well as national domains. Binding the actions of the participants in the plan within a systematic governance structure is their principle role. Apart from framing regulations, establishing strong communication network within the stakeholders can also be performed by them.

The governmental actions are defined by the regional hierarchies. Also, the involvement and the interference of the institutions is determined by the scale of disaster occurring. With help of holistic disaster response, the government can ensure penetration to the vulnerable population and micro- and macro-level actors.

National/International NGOs and Multilateral and/or bilateral cooperation organizations These organizations, found at several levels of society and systems, have different virtues to add to the planning design. In reality, their heterogenous resources are cultivated depending upon the scale of disaster impact. With immense experience of emergency actions worldwide, these organizations are generally better prepared to approach the disaster situation with readily available knowledge and equipment. Apart from emergency conditions, these organizations also contribute equally to prepare the communities and help other stakeholders with whatever aid they offer. In addition, their role of advocacy regarding the awareness and need of preparedness for disaster cannot be avoided. They also take part in the mitigation and recovery processes after disaster.

Private Sector entities With their resource bank in the form of scientific and technical expertise and financial and humanitarian aids, these systems enrich the existing capacity of the stakeholders’ network. They pose high potential to provide information and communication technologies’ knowledge, technical man-power and services and help in developing data to analyze risks pertaining to upcoming disasters and distribution of emergency goods. Their collaborations with governments and nongovernmental organizations causes integration of disaster management into business models and practices.

Community Level organizations The target community or the residents of Svartlamon being the most vulnerable in the specific scenario, are accepted as a key stakeholder in the process. Several

Table 4: LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS AND RESOURCES Level National/international NGOs and Multilateral/bilateral cooperation organizations

Stakeholders • CARE, Oxfam, etc.

• Red Cross • Meteorologisk institutt • UN agencies, IADB, AECI, USAID etc.

Community Level

• Svartlamon residents' association • Svartlamon Housing Foundation • Svartlamon Cultural and Business Foundation • Trondheim Red Cross

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Resources • Relief materials • organizing health camp • involved in rescue operation • arranging temporary shelters • Developing communication facilities • financial assistance • Geographical data and study resources • Institutional and Policy frameworks • Coordination • Disaster Preparedness and Response • Community Based Knowledge (History, assets and connections) • High Interest

SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Governmental Institution

Private Sector

• Civil Defense • Ministry of Health • Mayoralty • Trondheim Kommune • Department of Public Security • Police Department • Fire department • Banks • Insurance companies • Consulting firms • Engineering companies • Pump stations

• Regulatory Capacity • Delivery Capacity • Analytical Capacity • Coordination Capacity

• Financial Resources • Humanitarian aids • Knowledge in sea level rise projections and management

Case Study

Sea Level Rise Response Plan of Olympia, USA A high-density city prone to sea level rise flooding Olympia is a city at Washington State of USA. The city is experiencing population growth and densification. By 2017, the city’s population is 51,609 with the density of 1094.63 people/km², which is relatively high-density if compared with countries. Olympia downtown is prone to flooding due to climate change and sea level rise. The city’s landscape along with complex coastal processes such as storm surge and local wave processes contributes to potential flooding.

‘Project Partners’ as the main actor In response to the rising sea level and potential flooding, the City of Olympia (City), Port of Olympia (Port), and the LOTT Clean Water Alliance (LOTT) formed the ‘project partnership’ to work together for the Sea Level Rise Response Plan. The plan aims to prioritize strategies and investments for best responding to sea level rise, seeking to protect downtown’s economic, social and environmental values.

Area focus with approach of best, most likely and worst case The plan focuses on four downtown areas, including Capitol Lake / Lower Deschutes Watershed, Percival Landing and Isthmus, Budd Inlet Treatment Plant and Combined Sewer System, and Port of Olympia Peninsula. Four scenarios are identified, which are 6, 12, 18 and 24 inches sea level rise, combined with king tide and storm tide, corresponding to local sea level rise projections. The plan thus adopts the phased approach of implementation with near-term (next 5 years), mid-term (5-30 years), and long-term (beyond 30 years) response actions, also corresponding to the time frame of scenarios and projections.

Four dimensions of response strategies based on assets and vulnerabilities analysis The plan lists the inventory of assets and evaluates vulnerabilities in terms of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of assets.

Assets are considered most vulnerable to sea level rise if they are exposed to flooding, are highly sensitive to damages from floodwaters and are not easily adaptable. Based on assessment the plan developed a suite of physical, operational, governance and informational strategies to address key vulnerabilities.

Physical strategies are to make physical modifications to the shoreline or assets to make them less vulnerable, e.g. raising or strengthening seawalls. Operational strategies are to address flood vulnerabilities through operations and maintenance in response to changing conditions, e.g. traffic detours and coordinated emergency response during flood events. Informational strategies are to address data and knowledge gaps in understanding flood vulnerabilities, e.g. conducting studies to better understand effects of elevated groundwater on the stormwater and sewer system. Governance strategies are to address flood vulnerabilities through policies, plans, coordination, guidelines, and regulations, e.g. developing agreements among the project partners and other stakeholders to collaborate on future sea level rise planning efforts.

The plan specifies a response strategy to develop a governance structure and organization, which includes oversight committee, technical group, finance group, and citizen advisory group. It provides inspiration about how good collaboration could be formed in absence of a disaster management authority.

Implementation, monitoring and action triggers To implement response actions, the plan seeks to strengthen and extend the ‘project partnership’ to involve a wide range of stakeholders including governmental entities, NGOs and private property owners. The Project Partners will establish a monitoring program to track changing environments and updated climate studies to better prepare for challenges of sea level rise. The monitoring program will provide key information for local decision making in the decades ahead. Action triggers for implementation of physical and governance strategies will be refined annually as needed. The cost (dominantly physical strategies) before 2050 will be up to 28 million USD, but total budget covering long term actions will range from 190 to 350 million USD.

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

CONTINGENCY PLAN Response Strategy

vulnerabilities identified in the assessment. According to the hypothetical scenario, availability of a substantial amount of funding drives the plan towards a massive scale in the strategy involving various domains of vulnerability instead of focusing on a singular dimension of interventions.

The strategies enlisted as responses are direct outcomes of the previously done VCA with respect to the time frames considered. Objectives are set to attain followed by interventions as strategic solutions to the

Table 5: RESPONSE STRATEGIES Degree of urgency for best, most likely and worst cases

Physical Strategies

Operational Strategies

Governance Strategies Informational strategies high urgency

Best

Most likely

Worst

Improve road infrastructure Build shoreline protection, e.g. tide gate/sea walls Improve building materials Improve sewage and stormwater pipe capacity Ensure power supply Provide drinking water and food Emergency medical and social service provide emergency shelter Assisted evacuation of the disabled, sick people Plan a route for evacuation Improve warning system Post-disaster recovery support Provide training of disaster management and sea level rise Develop disaster management partnership and committee Conduct studies for sea level rise - its impacts and solutions moderate urgency

low urgency

In our response strategies, we evaluate the degree of urgency according to the potential impacts based on our scenarios. For instance, in a best case, mild floods are not inclined to cause damage to the buildings, which renders it less urgent to invest in the building material upgradation. In contrast, the development of a disaster management committee would always be crucial to disaster relief in all scenarios regardless of impacts.

disaster occurs, it would be safer to prepare for routines, structures and capacities at least according to the most likely case, which will cover the best case. According to the urgency of different response strategies for different scales of scenarios shown in the table, the worst-case scenario will request a wider range of urgent response actions, covering domains of both most-likely and bestcase scenarios. We therefore adopt the worst case in our development of implementation, operational support and preparedness plans with the short-term, mid-term and long-term time frames.

The ‘most likely’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios are the two most important ones in practice (IFRC, 2012). In case a

Table 6: FOCUS OF WORST CASE RESPONSE STRATEGIES WITH TIME FRAME

Time

Short Term: 5 years (2019-2024)

Mid-term: 5-30 years (2025-2049)

Long term: >30 years (after 2050)

Governance Strategies

Form a preliminary Svartlamon disaster management committee

form the comprehensive disaster management mechanism at municipal level

form the comprehensive disaster management authority at national level

Provide training about disaster management and sea level rise at community level

Form established and more equipped training course system at city and national level

apply new knowledge and skills in the course system

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Continued: FOCUS OF WORST CASE RESPONSE STRATEGIES WITH TIME FRAME

Time

Short Term: 5 years (2019-2024)

Mid-term: 5-30 years (2025-2049)

Long term: >30 years (after 2050)

Physical Strategies

Improve road condition

Elevate the road

adapt road system to flooding scenario with new technology

install temporary flooding protection

construct floodable landscapes

apply innovative construction techniques to adapt shorelines

Use stronger material for newly built buildings

Improve existing buildings with supplementary materials

adapt buildings to flooding with innovative techniques

reduce sewage and pipe blockage and expand the capacity

Upgrade existing facilities to expand its capacity

adapt the sewage and stormwater pipe system to flooding with new technology

provide electricity for emergency use at community level

ensure power supply at city level

establish national level disaster power supply fail-safe system

Provide emergency drinking water and find safer water storage solutions for community provide emergency medical services

ensure water supply with protected water source at city level

establish national level disaster water supply fail-safe system

ensure the entire coverage of emergency medical service at city level

establish national level disaster medical service mechanism

provide community emergency shelter during flooding

build an emergency shelter at community level

Build specific emergency shelters with wider coverage at city and national level

plan a route for emergency evacuation

improve and plan evacuation route with new knowledge and technologies

improve and plan evacuation route with new knowledge and technologies

ensure safe evacuation of sick and disabled people

apply new knowledge in evacuation measures for the disabled and the sick

apply new knowledge in evacuation measures for the disabled and the sick

examine and improve current early warning system

apply new technology and knowledge

apply new technology and knowledge

provide financial and social recovery support for people affected

form city-level post-disaster reconstruction and support mechanism

form nation-level postdisaster reconstruction and support mechanism

Conduct studies for sea level rise and disaster reduction

Conduct studies for sea level rise and disaster reduction

Conduct studies for sea level rise and disaster reduction

Operational Strategies

Informational strategies

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Implementation Plan

Undoubtedly, the implementation of the response actions will involve a wide range of stakeholders. There will be one stakeholder for each response strategy in terms of responsibilities to lead the implementation.

The absence of a disaster management authority in Trondheim urges the Svartlamon community to establish an emergency disaster committee as soon as possible to take charge of community-level response actions and preparedness actions, and to coordinate with the municipal or higher level of stakeholders. The Svartlamon Disaster Committee will include representatives of Svartlamon residents, Svartlamon Residents Association, Svartlamon Housing Foundation, Svartlamon Business and Culture Foundation, representatives from Trondheim Kommune, and potentially from other stakeholders.

Strategies Develop disaster management partnership and committee

Provide training about disaster management and sea level rise

Improve road infrastructure

Methods

The implementation plan adopts the needs-based approach. Emergency needs assessments will be implemented promisingly by the Svartlamon Disaster Committee at the first place upon the occurrence of a disaster. The assessments will lay foundation for prioritizing the planned response actions and implementation methods.

Table 7: IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Leading actor and partnership GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES Short-term: • Svartlamon residents • Form the Svartlamon Disaster • Svartlamon residents' Committee involving residents and onassociation site organizations • Svartlamon Housing • Establish a disaster management panel Foundation involving governmental, NGO, private • Trondheim Kommune and community key stakeholders • Central government Mid-term and long-term: • Form a disaster management authority at municipal level • Set up a ministry of disaster management at national level Short-term: • Svartlamon Disaster • Public awareness education Committee (newly formed) • Specific disaster-response training • Svartlamon residents • Exercises and simulations • NGOs • First aid training • Trondheim Kommune • Community mapping • Consulting firms Mid-term: • Central government • Provide municipal level regular disaster management seminars and workshops for residents • Incorporate disaster knowledge and skills in school courses for children Long-term: • Establish national level disaster course system PHYSICAL STRATEGIES Short term: • Trondheim Kommune • Upgrade the existing shoddy roads into • Construction company porous asphalt roads • Svartlamon Disaster Mid-term: Committee • Elevate the roads along with the low• NGOs lying Svartlamon area Long-term: • Elevate and adapt entire Svartlamon and its surrounding area

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Logistics • Office space • Office supplies, e.g. stationeries • Office furniture and equipment, e.g. Electronics & communication network

• Spaces to carry out training • Teaching materials • Classroom furniture and equipment • Stationeries

• Construction Materials • Heavy freight vehicles • Civil engineering expertise • Construction equipment

SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Strategies Build shoreline protection, e.g. tide gate/sea walls

Methods

Continued: IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Leading actor and partnership PHYSICAL STRATEGIES Short-term: • Trondheim Kommune • Build flood gates • Construction company • install sandbags • Department of Coastal affairs Mid-term: and Environment • Build floodable landscape • Svartlamon Disaster Long-term: Committee • Construct sea walls and elevated • NGOs boardwalk • Central government

Logistics • Construction materials • Skilled workers • construction equipment • Civil/marine engineering techniques • Freight vehicles

Improve building materials

Short-term: • Use high-strength materials to build new houses • Establish/cooperate with a foundation to support better material use • Send a technical team to guide the building construction Mid-term: • Use supplementary materials and techniques to strengthen the floodresistant ability of existing buildings Long-term: • Adapt the building typologies (e.g. floating houses) to the potential floodprone environment

• Svartlamon residents • Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Svartlamon residents' association • Svartlamon Housing Foundation • Trondheim Kommune • Banks for loan/subsidy application • Construction companies • Architecture firms

• water-resistant building material • Freight vehicles • Construction workers • Construction equipment

Improve sewage and stormwater pipe capacity

Short-term: • Regular check of sewage system to avoid blockage • Install backflow prevention at the stormwater outfall Mid-term and long-term: • Upgrade the sewage system to expand its capacity • Construct stormwater discharge pump station

• Trondheim Kommune • Construction companies • Svartlamon Disaster Committee

• Construction materials, e.g. stainless-steel pipes • Construction workers • Engineering expertise

Ensure power supply

Short-term: • Equip buildings with small diesel power generators Mid-term and long-term: • Construct emergency power plant • Improve power transmission system

• Trondheim Kommune • Generator suppliers • Construction companies • Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Svartlamon residents • Svartlamon Residents Association • Svartlamon Housing Foundation

• Diesel power generators • Freight vehicles • Engineering expertise

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Strategies ensure drinking water and food supply

Continued: IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Methods

Leading actor and partnership OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES Short-term: • Svartlamon Disaster • Deliver drinking water and emergency Committee food supply with tankers • Trondheim Kommune Mid-term: (Emergency Services) • Upgrade the drinking water pipes and • Svartlamon residents facilities • NGOs, e.g. Trondheim Red Long-term: Cross • Select backup drinking water sources safe from flooding and construct new plants

Emergency medical service and social service

Short-term: • Send ambulances with doctors, nurses, medicines and medical equipment • Send social workers and psychologists Mid-term and long-term: • Establish specific medical station with well-equipped medical teams and facilities

Provide emergency shelter

Short-term: • prepare nearby public place (e.g. the Svartlamon kindergarten, Svartlamon concert hall) as the emergency shelter • Prepare tents and sleeping bags Long-term: • Construct a well-designed special disaster shelter in surrounding high elevation area

Plan a route for evacuation

• Use Algorithm to plan evacuation routes • Prepare helicopter evacuation route • Prepare lifeboat evacuation route • Prepare ground evacuation route

• Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Residents of Svartlamon • Trondheim Kommune • Police Department • Fire Department

Assisted evacuation of the disabled, sick people

• Assist evacuation with ambulance, wheelchair, hand frame • improve barrier-free facilities • Provide special equipment for people with special needs

• Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Trondheim Kommune (Emergency Services) • Police • Fire Department • Hospitals and doctors/nurses • NGOs, e.g. Trondheim Red Cross • Residents of Svartlamon • Svartlamon Housing Foundation

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• Trondheim Kommune (Health Services) • Nearest clinics and hospital, Doctors and nurses • Ministry of health and care service • Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Svartlamon residents • Svartlamon Disaster Committee • Residents of Svartlamon • Svartlamon Housing Foundation • NGOs, e.g. Trondheim Red Cross • Trondheim Kommune (Emergency Services)

Logistics • Water Tankers • Safe storage vessels for water and food • Available food and water storage

• Ambulances and vehicles • Medicines and medical equipment

• Space to accommodate evacuated people • basic furniture, e.g. heaters or stoves • Water and food supply • Utilities • Sleeping bags and tents • Stimulated maps with projected data • Mapping tools • Office equipment

• Ambulances and specialized rescue vehicles • Life jackets • Communications equipment • Medical equipment

SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Strategies Improve prewarning system

Post-disaster recovery support

Conduct studies for sea level rise - its impacts and solutions

Methods

Continued: IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Leading actor and partnership OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES Short-term: • Trondheim Kommune • Improve the early warning information (Emergency Services) procedure • Department of Climate Mid-term and long-term: Change and Environment • Upgrade operation center • Meteorologisk institutte • Recruit more meteorological experts • Svartlamon Disaster Committee Short-term: • Svartlamon Disaster • Provide insurance compensation to Committee beneficiaries • NGOs and social service organizations • Provide emergency post-disaster mental intervention and social services • Trondheim Kommune • Assist in regaining livelihood • Hospitals and psychologists Mid-term and long-term: • Insurance companies • Establish a national post-disaster • Banks recovery mechanism • Svartlamon residents • Svartlamon housing foundation

INFORMATIONAL STRATEGIES

• Cooperate with local universities and research institutes to carry out studies • Establish national level sea level rise research association to systematize relevant studies for better understanding and planning

• Department of Climate Change and Environment • Meteorologisk institutte • Trondheim Kommune

Logistics • New technology • Office equipment

• Insurance policies • Space for mental and social intervention • Communications and IT tools

• Well-equipped laboratory • Researchers with expertise

Stakeholder Network In absence of a disaster management authority, a well knitted collaboration within identified stakeholders accelerates the implementation. A schematic network in Figure 12 shows how communication can ideally be handled to accelerate operation. It is vital to understand each other’s resources and to complement when it comes to resource optimization and utilization in this process. Also, coordinating in the same regulated framework with shared principles and interests results in more efficient implementation.

A joint monitoring program will be initiated by Svartlamon Disaster Committee to involve stakeholders in implementation of different response strategies. The monitoring program will not only constantly track the change of environmental conditions to adapt the preparation for better responses before a disaster strikes, and for timely action triggers when a disaster happens, but also take charge of evaluation of implementation processes and outcomes to better achieve set objectives and goals. The Svartlamon Disaster Committee will also be responsible for logistics, reporting and security management at community level, and contributes to relevant coordination at higher scale.

Cash based Approach Cash-based approaches are practical tools in relieving disaster and in post-disaster recovery. They provide people what they need in an effective and efficient manner, ranging from buying food to safeguarding productive assets. Cash-based approaches can largely facilitate disaster relief and recovery with a preestablished mechanism in place for cash delivery (Harvey and Bailey, 2011). With abundant resources from Trondheim municipality and intervening NGOs, Figure 13 implies how our contingency plan is entitled to achieve effective responses with abundant cash flow.

Operational Support Plan An operational support plan is developed to ensure administration, financial and human resources, information and telecommunications and other support.

Regardless of absent disaster management authority, strong community bond enables Svartlamon to form a disaster committee to coordinate resources distribution and stakeholder collaboration. Also, abundant resources guarantee a cash-based approach to improve efficiency.

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Figure 12 Svartlamon Stakeholder Network

Figure 13 Cash flow between stakeholders in the contingency plan

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Preparedness Plan

humanitarian needs when a disaster evolves.

A preparedness plan is preparatory in nature and is acted in a state of uncertainty until an actual emergency or disaster occurs. During an actual contingency, effective and quick action is required. However, this action very often depends on having plans already in place before a disaster strikes. It is thus pivotal that appropriate preparedness actions are taken in time to avoid needless loss. Also, it is equally important to prioritize preparedness actions to better meet the

In our contingency plan, Svartlamon will have adequate preparedness to better achieve response strategies in conjunction with implementation and operational support plans. While the Svartlamon Disaster Committee to be formed at the initiation of the contingency plan is anticipated to lead community-level preparedness actions, all stakeholders should play a role in supporting the preparedness plan in form of a partnership or program.

Response strategies Develop disaster management partnership and committee Provide training about disaster management and sea level rise

Improve road infrastructure

Table 8: PREPAREDNESS PLAN

Preparedness actions GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES • Identify potential stakeholders • Organize community meetings to discuss • Apply for funding for operation • Invite existing experts or hire people to provide training • Advertise and inform residents about the training program • Purchase necessary teaching material • Prepare teaching space PHYSICAL STRATEGIES • Carry out road mapping • Select construction company • Apply for funding • Purchase materials • Organize community meetings to discuss • Select a committee member to follow up the process

Build shoreline protection, e.g. tide gate/sea walls

• Carry out mapping activities • Start the project application and approval procedure • Select construction company • Apply for funding • Select a committee member to follow up the process

Improve building materials

• Organize community meetings • Discuss with the funding actors and the cooperative banks about loan/subsidy provision procedure • Carry out community mapping to identify vulnerable buildings • Apply for funding from the municipality/NGOs to support the project • Purchase materials • Hire architects and engineers

Improve sewage and stormwater pipe capacity

• Carry out mapping and investigations • Start the project application and approval procedure • Apply for funding • Call for bills on the construction and select construction company • Select a committee member to follow up

Ensure power supply

• Select the generator suppliers and start negotiation • Identify potential site for emergency power plant • Contact instalment companies • Select a committee member to follow up

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

Response strategies ensure drinking water and food supply

Continued: PREPAREDNESS PLAN

Preparedness actions OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES • Prepare a warehouse for food and water storage • Purchase enough food stock • Prepare vehicles for transport • Hire people/ select committee members to maintain the stock and to monitor operation

Emergency medical and social service

• Carry out community level demographics to identify people with special needs • Purchase or arrange all necessary equipment in advance • Organize regular meetings to update service providers with information and knowledge • Organize exercises and simulations • Hire/assign a specialist to follow up

provide emergency shelter

• Carry out community mapping to identify potential places that could be used as emergency shelters • Negotiate with owners about the plans to prepare the place as an emergency shelter • Arrange and purchase necessary furniture, equipment and supplies • Hire a staff/ assign a committee member for follow-up and maintenance • Identify potential site that could be used to construct a specific shelter in the future

Plan a route for evacuation

• Collect data including demographics and geographical data, etc.

• Select partners of expertise, e.g. programming and Algorithm • identify suitable evacuation vehicles, helicopters, lifeboats/fleet • Contact fire and police department to discuss • Select a committee member to follow up

Assisted evacuation of the disabled, sick people

• Carry out community level demographics to identify people with special needs • select a doctor, a nurse and a social worker to follow up their situations • Purchase and arrange necessary medical equipment and supplies • Select a committee member to follow up the preparation

Improve pre-warning system

• Collect and update meteorological data • Identify new knowledge and technologies that could be applied to improve the system • Examine the existing pre-warning system and identify the drawbacks to be improved • Establish connection between the Svartlamon Disaster Committee and the municipal pre-warning actors

Post-disaster recovery support

• Apply for funding for the insurance purchase • Purchase insurance • Identify social service organizations and sign agreements • Establish a foundation for post-disaster recovery • Select a committee member to follow up

Conduct studies for sea level rise and disaster reduction

INFORMATIONAL STRATEGIES • Identify potential research partners and sign agreements • Identify urgent research topics • Apply for research funding

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SVARTLAMON CONTINGENCY PLAN

Budget

Svartlamon, physical and operational strategies will also account for high proportion of total cost. Considering the similar level of development between Norway and US, the cost of labor and material is assumed to share similar level. However, given the much smaller scale of Svartlamon compared with focus area of Olympia, the minimum cost for one of Olympia’s focus area is referred to when the short-term cost for community-level actions is estimated. The budget will range from 1.5 to 10 million taking into consideration the financial support for newly built houses. The community-level mid-term cost could range from 25 to 50 million NOK, but the city-level actions proposed in our plan will require for more substantial investment, and Trondheim is also larger than Olympia. The long-term cost within this century will still be uncertain, potentially ranging from 0.1 to 1 billion NOK.

The cost of actions ranges in scenarios with different scales of risks and impacts, and it will be spread out across time over decades. Requiring huge amount of human and material resources, physical and operational strategies will be the major part of expenditure. The budget will be comprised of direct costs (including expenditure for labor, equipment, permanent and temporary materials), mobilization, contractor’s markup, design engineering and permit fees, design contingency, construction contingency, contract administration and escalation (AECOM, 2019).

The Olympia case gives a referential example about cost in implementing physical adaptation strategies, although the cost for governance and informational strategies remain to be decided. In the case of

Table 9: BUDGET Project Location

Short Term : 5 years

Mid Term : 5 - 30 years

Long Term : > 30 years

(2019-2024)

(2025-2050)

(2050-2100)

Svartlamon level projects

1.5-10 million NOK

25-50 million NOK

0.1-1 billion NOK

Trondheim city level projects

From 20 million NOK

From 200 million NOK

From 2 billion NOK

DISCUSSION Placing Svartlamon in the hypothetical scenario of sea level rise leading into unexpected flooding has been a strategy by itself. Understanding it’s prevailing organizational capacity to withstand external disasters as a community is utilized at quite a few steps of the proposed plan. Taking into consideration, a substantial amount of money in the project, importing expensive and successful modules like massive engineering solutions to guard the sea shores to protect the community from the unwanted disaster would have been another way to solve the problem. Cultivating the existing assets and capacities of Svartlamon, the reversed approach was obvious in our case. Reinforcing the people in the context with help of stakeholders at certain levels seemed much more realistic and optimistic. Hence our plan retains the wealth within the people and region, and to be distributed and utilized in a rationally established network.

emergency. Efforts to be invested in intensive studies regarding the sea level rise and the level of exposure of several places to the hazard risks are undeniably important and can be brought to attention with the help of regional as well as local media.

The project will be supported by substantial wealth, making it possible to develop a holistic implementation plan that takes care of multiple issues at the same time.

Though the plan would imply that the stakeholders mentioned will have to work in a coherent and collaborative manner at every step, concurrent and overlapping capacities between each other ensures the continuity of the implementation even if one of them withdraws. Responsibilities of further monitoring and evaluation are subjected to upcoming results of the formation of the disaster management team.

It may appear to be a prolonged and extended plan in terms of time frames and the number of tasks, the discretely mentioned strategies can be carried out simultaneously with ease. A focus in a single prioritized strategy remains absent in this case as the association with the place and community was too little – any imposed decision on their behalf would have been extremely biased and unjustified. Hence an open-ended manual is placed as a contingency plan for further proceedings.

Dealing with “unexpected” and “unprecedented” flooding in a situation where there is no single organization answerable, the residents with their assets within the rundown social housing project turns out to be the most vulnerable – not only the urgency of a disaster management plan but the lack of realization of absence of one makes it worse. The immediate response emerges towards a social awareness within the people so that they can take control of themselves in an

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AAR 5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning

CONCLUSION Proximity to the city center with the low-cost urban project enables Svartlamon to witness its rise in density, an important characteristic to be considered in our hypothetical scenario, where flooding caused by sea level rise occurs in the high-density area in absence of an existing disaster management authority. We therefore view the strong community cohesion of Svartlamon as a vital asset to help us fill the blank of the absent authority. The contingency plan lays emphasis on the role of the anticipated Svartlamon Disaster

Management Committee in the process of implementation, resource mobilization and stakeholder coordination. Another focus has been given to the cashbased approach to introduce at an initial phase of the plan to maximally utilize the abundance of resources available from the Trondheim municipality as well as other stakeholders. It would be an interesting dimension to notice how Svartlamon, with its own limitations and strengths, respond strategically to risks and disasters caused by sea level rise flooding in the years to come.

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