Urban Contingency - 2019 - Disaster preparedness

CONTINGENCY REPORT

Disaster preparedness for actual or threats of Climate change impacts in a low-densed neighborhood of Trondheim

Spring, 2019

Christian Baloloy Ruta Slavinskaite Diana Hernandez Aguilar Sai Varsha Akavarapu Master in Urban Ecological Planning, Department of Architecture & Planning, NTNU, Trondheim, NORWAY

Contents 1. Introduction p. 3 2. Methodology p. 7 3. Findings p. 16 4. Proposed Contingency Plan p.33 5. Discussion & Conclusion p.39

Figure 2. Map of Trolla with Norway and Trondheim (Source: Google, 2019).

1. INTRODUCTION Planning is a form of decision making by individuals and organizations that generally involves more complex situations, a longer time frame for actions and outcomes, and more prior thought about alternative choices and their consequences.

Planning by organizations also involves a framework for implementation.

“Planning means, essentially, controlling uncertainty—either by taking action now to secure the future, or by preparing actions to be taken in case an event occurs.” -Peter Marris Therefore, the effects of uncertainty are likely to be more significant and important to take into account. But planning can also provide a structured social process for trying to understand and manage uncertainty about the future and in the future (Abbott, 2005).

The contingency approach uses a different concept of planning than one may find in the “blueprint” approaches most international assistance organisations use to prepare development projects (Korten 1981). Contingency planning recognizes that the proper design of tasks,organizational structures, and management processes for implementation is contingent on the specific circumstances under which a project will be implemented (Smith, 1990).

Cities face a variety of risks and threats globally, with Trondheim being no exception. Due to the geographical location and landscape features, Trondheim and its surrounding area are prone to floods caused by sea level rise. Continuous sea level rise poses a threat of disaster of natural causes that might include storm surges, frequent and magnified precipitations as well as mud/landslides. This is particularly relevant for the village of Trolla in Trondheim municipality.

Figure 3. Landslide risk warning for Trolla for 23rd March 2019 (Source: Yr.no, 2019).

Figure 1. Picture of Trolla village in March of 2019 during a snow storm. (Source: Authors, 2019).

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1.1 Case Background

Figure 4. Map of Trolla (Source: Norkart AS, 2019).

Figure 5. Houses on the slopes of Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

Trolla is a village 6,8 km west of the city of Trondheim, which is accessible through a highway, Rv715 that runs until the town of Byneset/Fosen. It is a neighborhood of 549 inhabitants (as per 2018 survey) with approximately 300 households. It faces the Trondheim fjord to the north and most houses are on the slope and some along the Trollenget mountain stream, Trollbekken. Its land area is 0,24 sq.km. and has a varying height (SSB, 2018, Rosvold, 2017).

The industrial area is located at the lowest level, 7m high over sea level and the highest point where most houses are located is 157m high over sea level (Norkart AS, 2019).

Figure 6. Terrain profile of Trolla (Source: Norkart AS, 2019).

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Previous flood event had occured in Trolla in 2004 resulting into 16 people evacuated.

It happened on the lower portion of the site close to the coastline where industrial buildings were built (Adressavisa, 2004, Bondø and Stenersen, 2004). Several of these industiral buildings are now of antiquarian value.

Figure 9. Flood event in Trolla in 2004 (Source: NRK, 2004).

Figure 10 & 11. News clippings of the flood event in Trolla in 2004 (Sources: Adressavisa, 2004, Bondø and Stenersen, 2004).

Antiquarian value High antiquarian value

Figure 12. Map of Trolla highlighting some buildings with antiquarian value. (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2019)

Figure 13 & 14. Pictures of buildings with antiquarian value in Trolla. (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2019) Figure 7 & 8. The Community of Trolla having a get-together. Photos taken from facebook page of Trolla Vel (Source: TrollaVel, 2019).

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(a)

Socio-Economic Statistics

Refugee resident from Africa, Asia as of 2011 (c)

Percentage share of children 6-17 y.o. over the whole population of Trondheim as of 2017 Average annual income between 35 and 60 y.o. as of 2015

(b)

Percentage/ Amount

2,7%

Rank in Trondheim

9th lowest

16,5%

13th highest

464 000 kr

8th highest

Figure 15. (a) Demographic status, (b) house types, and (c) Socio-economic statistics in Trolla. (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2018)

Trolla’s inhabitants are mostly 35-66 years old, among the highest earners, and has one of the lowest immigrant population in Trondheim. Its houses were originally built for the workers of the Trondheim Mekaniske Verksted (TMV) and Trolla Bruk in 1916 (SSB, 2018, Rosvold, 2017).

Natural hazards with the threat of climate change pose a level of uncertainty. WIthout a dedicated disaster management authority, Trondheim municipality, local NGOs and communities have shared responsibilities in order to prepare and cope with the possible threats.

Instead of viewing the uncertainty of the situation as a menace, crisis can be seen as an opportunity to develop and transform the area in a sustainable manner.

In this paper, the focus will be on analyzing the development of Trolla’s contingency plan in relation to urban planning. The outcomes of this paper include a goal-oriented approach for the sustainable future development of the village of Trolla with a structurized matrix of possible interventions resulting from decision-tree analysis and then, analysing the cost-benefit of these adaptation measures. Finally, this paper will provide a proposed contingency plan for the stakeholders in a possible future scenario of flooding (due to sea level rise) and landslides (from increased water runoffs due to increased precipitations) in Trolla.

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Figure 16. The core concept of climate-related risks, hazard vulnerability and exposure. (Source: IPCC, 2014).

2. METHODOLOGY The basis for the methodology of this paper is related on the literature search for each constraint specified for the hypothetical scenario assigned including the case study. The outline of the hypothetical scenario is: Trondheim is a very low-density city and is prone to floods caused due to sea level rise. The municipality has substantial resources but does not have a disaster management authority.The objective is to find the most suitable set of literatures and references.

The method used is mostly qualitative where reviewing the different literatures that relate to the study is done. Several sources such as Oria, Compendex, Scopus, Google Scholar and the Course compendiums are more exploited. Classifying them according to the hypothetical constraints (i.e. low density, substantial resource, no disaster management authority, climate change impacts) of the assigned scenario would be useful.

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Low density The dense concentration of urban populations can increase susceptibility to the disasters that are likely to become more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.

Many aspects of urban areas are vulnerable to disasters and climate change. Economies, livelihoods, physical infrastructure and social structures are all important components of urban systems and are vulnerable to disasters and climate risk in different ways (Dodman, 2009).

On one hand, compact development can specifically direct land uses, infrastructure systems and socioeconomic activities to non-hazardous areas and also facilitate improved access to resources, services and amenities by bringing in diversity.

Low density cities, however, are seen to enable individual freedom and spacious living, or to be a profligate and wasteful use of space and resources and high density cities are viewed to inherently pose a variety of risks: fire, building collapse and violence (Balk et.al., 2009). Disaster mitigation and recovery in this context creates a “density conundrum” in the context of urban planning.

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Figure 17. Illustration of high-dense versus low-dense neighborhoods (Adam-Smith, 2013).

Low densities are also seen as spaces that increase the susceptibility to disasters due to their dependence on mobility. However, mitigation strategies include zoning ordinances in order to reduce exposure by limiting the development or the density of human occupancy in particularly hazardous areas, by creating or maintaining open spaces, and by limiting the placement of critical facilities such as hospitals, power plants and schools. Thus, the answer to this density conundrum in the context of disaster resilience might be an urban form that allows communities to minimize these conflicts.

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Climate change consequence Urban areas are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, inherently associated with the geographical location and landscapes features. According to the IPCC Report 2014, ”climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle which potentially leads

Figure 18. Weather statistics for Trondheim (Voll station) for the period March 2018 to March 2019. (Source: Yr.no, 2019).

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to a general increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events. This will, in turn, have direct implications for hydrological extremes such as flooding” . Figure 16 shows the concept where exposure, vulnerability and hazards related to climate change risks is illustrated by the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its report in 2014 (IPCC, 2014).

The consequences of floods, both negative and positive, vary greatly depending on their location, duration, depth and speed, as well as the vulnerability and value of the affected natural and constructed environments. Floods impact both individuals and communities, and have social, economic, and environmental consequences Moreover, climate change may result in the increase or decrease in the magnitude and frequency of events as a consequence of changes in the hydrometeorological processes that generate flood events.

For mountainous and northern regions, where the role of snowmelt vs. rainfall is highly relevant for the seasonal flood regimes, the impacts of climate change on runoff and flooding are expected to be more severe than in other regions. These changes in the hydrometeorological triggers will, most likely, impact runoff and flooding in Norway via their direct effect on the relative importance of rainfall vs. snowmelt in runoff generation. Currently, about 30% of the annual precipitation in Norway falls as snow, and snow storage and melting play an important role in the hydrological regime of many catchments in the country (Dyrrdal et.al., 2012).

According to Dyrrdal et al. (2012), there has also been an increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over the period 1957–2010 in most parts of Norway. It is indeed that climate change is highly probable in Norway (Dyrrdal et.al., 2012).

The area is also close to a forested area which can be susceptible to forest fires if continuous warming will occur. The neighboring country of Sweden had experienced a recent forest fire in July, 2018 having an affected area was 20 000 ha (NATO, 2018).

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Substantial resource Climate change have very significant effects on the ecosystem goods and services in which humans depend on (such as water for drinking and growing food, fisheries and forest products). If the dependency of livelihoods on these natural capitals will be paralyzed then vulnerability would be high, however with substantial amount of financial resources, the affected community will be able to cope as long as these resources are available and accessible.

Uncertainties caused by climate change such as damages can be mitigated by insurances. “Insurance is a form of adaptive capacity for the climate change impacts” (Mills, 2005). Additionally, relying on the social capital whereby sharing of resources and labour, can definitely help in coping with worse-case scenarios brought about by a changing climate.

Figure 19. Illustration of insurance to climate change impacts.

(Source: iStock, 2019).

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Figure 20. Schematic diagram of the methodology. (Source: Authors, 2019).

The methodology is best described in this diagram. This also shows our research question that is sources, however, low-densed prepare/mobilise for disasters caused by climate change impacts? Ana best suited for Trolla community.

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In the absence of a DMA, how can substantially-resourced, low-densed communities prepare/ mobilize for disasters caused by climate

change impacts?

Decision Tree Analysis Goals & Interventions

Cost-Benefit Analysis

s: In the absence of a disaster management authority, how can communities having substantial realyses such as decision tree, priority identification and stakeholder will lead into a contingency plan

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No Disaster Management Authority Disaster management is based on quick action and response. Without a central government authority, the responsibility of aid, support as well as mitigation must be divided between the ones that can be affected and the ones with tools to help.

Stakeholders must have a clear communication system that would be easy to follow under stress and would not lead to failures.

With a clear plan and a step system, that the stakeholders are familiar with before the disaster, proper preparation can be reached. The divided roles of responsibility must be clear and agreed upon. Network systems, both tangible (i.e. infrastructure) and intangible (i.e. responsibilities) need to be maintained before, during and after a disastrous event. This would provide the possibility of timely responses.

An interdisciplinary approach must be used in the preparation phase in order to cover different aspects of resilience building. Fully Figure 21. ”Give the boy a plan” (Rasqoh, 2019). engaging participation of both community and governmental institutions would lead to a greater level of preparedness and by using the examples such as community-based disaster management in Indonesia where “[a]ll participants made a commitment to share their skills and knowledge with their family and community members” (United Nations, 2008), greater coverage would be reached. A post-event reflection must be done to evaluate the actions that can be taken for future unexpected events.

• Case Study. Studying cases having similar constraints (i.e. low-dense, substantial resource) in countries that are highly vulnerable to disaster is also going to be exploited. This will provide an insight on the best practices of disaster-prone countries and can be utilized in the analyses.

Probability of events Exposure to toxic elements Sea Level rising from polluted soil

Most likely

Flood in watreways, Overflowing

Likely

Loss of electricity

Less likely Unlikely Less dangerous

Certain danger

Water Fire spreading, contamination localized fire Radiation Localized fire, exposure from Quick clay and high voltage landslide installation

Uprooted trees

Radon radiation

Dam rupture

Critical

Dangerous

Catastrophic Consequences of events

Figure 22. Risk and Vulnerability Matrix (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2012).

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Risk and Vulnerability Assessment.The Trondheim municipality has its Risk and Vulnerability Matrix based from the National matrix. From the matrix above, the sea level rising is critical and most likely to happen in Trondheim. Flood and water contamination are also critical consequences of climate change impacts and are likely to happen.

Urban Flooding Assessment. An urban flooding assessment in the community of Trolla is relevant to visualize the possible scenario for a contingency event. Through the use of ArCGIS mapping, the possibility to identify the exposure to flood and water runoff are identified below. The purpose of the maps is to recognize places that are likely to be affected by urban flooding. Furthermore, places

within the boundaries of Trolla, which may be particularly prone to the natural hazards, are likewise shown. With the support of watershed datasets in the software of ArcGIS, it is possible to model where the flow of surface water is likely to run. Moreover a performance of hydrological modeling is conducted. The identification of particularly critical objects as elements at risk, is used. Those elements considered in the assessment are: manholes, culverts, bridges and buildings within the area.

Datasets The datasets which were used for the production of the maps are mentioned as follows: urbanflooding.gdb

a geodatabase that contains:

dem_1m

a 1-meter resolution DEM

FlAcc_1601

feature class that contains a modelled surface runoff

Tool4Ex6

a Toolbox containing a model for model builder

TRDaddrs

feature class with the address points in Trondheim

TRDbridges

feature class with the bridges in Trondheim

TRDculverts

feature class with the small culverts in Trondheim; small culvert is a passage crossing underneath a road or railway with overlying earth-fill and a 1m or less clear opening

TRDhillshd

shaded relief for the municipality of Trondheim

TRDmanholes

feature class with the manholes in Trondheim

Table 1. Datasets for the urban flooding geodatabase for Trondheim. (Source: NTNU, 2019).

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Process building overview It is first needed to select Trolla watershed area within the municipality of Trondheim. For the watershed, this raster is clipped and the vector dataset as well, so these elements fit the watershed.

Thereafter, a performance of analysis tasks is conducted in order to identify elements at particular risk to urban flooding. The following essential parts need to be accomplished: (a) create a flow direction raster; (b) identify sinks; (c) modify the DEM by filling sinks; (d) create new flow direction raster; (e) create flow accumulation raster.

A flow accumulation will typically model existing river networks, therefore a visually assessment of the modelled flow of water co-locates with the river network. Hydrologists from the municipality of Trondheim have already performed the surface runoff modelling for the entire municipality. Further the: (1) Extraction of accumulation values to manhole and address points are executed. The symbology is used with proportional or graduated symbol maps, identifying the most exposed elements at risk; (2) Creation of a centroid / midpoint for bridges, culverts, and subways and extraction of accumulation values to these elements at risk. The use of proper symbology in order to be easily identified is needed; and, (3) Conversion of the accumulation raster of the Trolla modelled flow of water to a linear feature.

The result of this process is an urban flooding exposure map. This map identifies one or more places within the Trolla watershed where there is the likelihood that huge amount of water will accumulate.

Decision tree analysis. A decision tree analysis is an important tool in accounting for risks that can happen and estimating probabilities (Blank, 2005). This analysis can also include the time-frame from 20 to 100 years to identify the immediate and distant probable scenario events of risks.

Formulation of Goals and Interventions / Matrix. It is also the intention to determine clearly the goals and interventions basing on the literatures and the case study. In order to segregate them basing on the context of the assigned scenario, a matrix is to be formulated. This matrix will aid in clearly identifying the possible interventions that must be applied to the contingency plan for the case study against the goals formulated.

Stakeholder Analysis. A stakeholder analysis of the different stakeholders enumerated basing on the context is to be created, as well. Stakeholder analysis is a useful tool in determining which has control and overview over the disaster response/relief operations, as well as, the contingency planning.

Cost-Benefit Analysis. A benefit-cost analysis would show if the cost of adaptation would sur-

pass the cost of mitigation for climate change impacts. A simple benefit cost ratio is utilized in this report for reference purpose.

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3. FINDINGS Based on our literature review, the following are the most significant and relevant according to the different constraints of the assigned scenario with consideration of the case study.

3.1 Literature Search / Case Studies / GIS-mapping •

Low density Low density population may seem to be vulnerable to disasters, however, having small numbers can also become their strength. This is especially true when a community-based approach would be required in responding to climate change impacts.

Ford et.al. (2016) explain that community-based approach in terms of adaptation to climate change impacts is related to increasing the social and cultural capitals of the community. It enhances the ability and capacity of the community in managing the effects of climate change. It deals more with the experiences and response to environmental change and identifying the expertise of community members. In this way, it brings out more of their adaptive initiatives (Ford et.al., 2016).

Pandit et.al. (2016) add that informal institutions--that is, family, households, neighbors, are the ones, normally, distressed people turn to in times of disaster where formal institutions such as government agencies take more time to respond. These informal institutions provide the immediate relief and basic needs during disaster. They are also capable of building their own defense mechanisms even before a disaster happens. It is crucial that the community must be proactive and flexible in climate change adaptation. Communities must be able to recognize where their critical needs are to enhance more their resilience (Pandit et.al., 2016).

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Substantial resource Kahneman (2011) discusses in his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow that “people buy insurance more than the protection to an unlikely disaster but as a way to eliminate worry and to purchase peace of mind.” He adds that insurance can provide a quick relief for the pain caused by losses from disasters (Kahneman, 2011). In this case, insurance for damages caused by climate change consequence could be easy to claim, however, the question could be if it would be the same case if these consequences will be more frequent and more intense. It may be probable that insurance companies may ask for higher premiums that could lead for more expensive insurances in the future.

Giddens (2011) mentions that the insurance industry should develop new ways of dealing with the rising scale and frequency of catastrophic risks associated to extreme weather events. He adds that uncertainties related to climate change risks are incalculable and unknown. The cost of money to cover the costs of damage from these catastrophes are as high as 100 times the premium of the insurance. This would eventually create more uncertainties especially if these extreme weather events would become more frequent and intensified (Giddens, 2011).

Stern (2007) in his Review: Economics of Climate Change mentions that the developed countries like Norway will likely benefit from a warming climate but can be affected when it comes to more water runoff, probable contamination of drinking water and irreversible damage to the ecosystem. In this case, it is not always advantageous to have more water resource but it would be beneficial if this type of resource will be managed carefully. The possibility that more intense forest fires will happen in the future due to a warming planet is high (Stern, 2007).

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Social capital related to the sharing of the skills (human capital) available within community members could be an effective tool in exploiting their capacity, especially during disaster relief operations. Social capital is the set of resources that inheres in the structure of relations between individual actors (Bourdieu, 1986). Social capital feeds on the interpersonal relationships and trust and reciprocity among individuals (Pelling & High, 2005).

In climate adaptation of communities, social capital can be a powerful tool in mobilizing resources both in immediate and future scenarios (Pelling & High, 2005). Social capital, in developed countries like Norway, can encourage public participation in decision-making processes, promote civic engagements, reduce transaction costs, increase capacity for learning and adaptation through free facilitation of information (Petzold & Ratter, 2015).

Purposeful

Material Intervention

1 Mobilize existing social capital

3 Activate latent social capacity

2 Education

4 Vote

Institutional modification

Incidental Figure 23. Mapping adaptive capacity by social capital (Pelling & High, 2005).

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No Disaster Management Authority Vandenbergh and Gilligan (2017) sees the private climate initiative as a promising opportunity to reduce the risks of climate change impacts while the government moves slowly or even oppose climate change mitigation. However, this does not mean bypassing the government’s role in mitigating climate change impacts and that the private actors are advocating for and against government actions. This private initiative only means that it requires more than just a government effort but also the cooperation of the private actors in achieving the necessary actions, in this context, managing and preparing for disaster (Vandenbergh and Gilligan, 2017).

It is a common notion that “the government is expected to respond” to every problems that may relate to climate change impacts. However, relevant private actors such as individuals, the community, nonprofit groups, religious organizations can also perform traditional governmental roles across various fields without the government interventions (Vanderbergh and Gilligan, 2017).

It can thus be summarized that private actors performing traditional government functions without negative externalities and can manage public goods or common pool resources in the event of a no disaster management authority is private governance. It may be associated with the public-private partnership. But the difference is that private governance can occur even without the government’s participation or government delegation of authority.

Private initiative does not draw on the government’s power and resources like NGOs because their powerful weapon is information (Vanderbergh and Gilligan, 2017).

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Case Studies

Iceland Iceland, a country that is constantly under the risk of volcanic risks has mitigation strate gies that have undergone revision since 2002. The motivation for such revision is due to the risk posed by the Katla Volcano - one of the most hazardous volcanoes due to its production of catastrophic jokulhlaups (glacial outburst floods). The volcano also lies in close proximity of rural and urban areas, sparsely inhabited (Fig. 24). Katla presents a significant hazard to the communities living close by and also to the ever-increasing tourists visiting the volcanic site. The evacuation and emergency plans, developed in 1973, have not undergone revisions pertaining to the communities at stake. Social assessments conducted highlighted the importance of investigating the aspect of community and local knowledge on their perception of risks and behaviour at the onset of risks. A comprehensive emergency management focusing on the inclusion of knowledge of the hazard, sense of community and attachment to place has brought about major revisions in the hazard mitigation strategies, where local knowledge and community preparedness were given utmost importance (Bird et.al., 2011).

Alongside the mitigation strategies was the inclusion of disaster risk reduction in the curriculum of the educational institutions across Iceland (Bernhardsdottir et.al., 2015).

Figure 24. Hazard maps for (left) Iceland’s southern region with Katla volcano (Bird et.al. 2009); and, (right) Vancouver’s vulnerability to seismic activity (Source: Natural Resources Canada, 2017).

North America & Canada Rubin (1991) observes that exclusion in disaster management planning and in decision-making processes, the local communities tend to become more frustrated (Rubin, 1991).

Fortunately, public participation somehow alleviates this problem. A concrete example is from the Pacific coast, particularly, from California to Canada. It involves the development of neighbourhood emergency programs (e.g. the Home Emergency Response Organization System [HEROS] in Coquitlam, British Columbia) that require a leader and volunteers from each neighbourhood. ”Their tasks are: (1) to complete a neighbourhood inventory of equipment (e.g. chainsaws) and skills (e.g. nursing) that could be useful during and after a disaster; (2) to develop a list of special-needs situations (e.g. elderly people living alone); and (3) to arrange for local stockpiling of medical supplies, food and water. In return, the community provides basic emergency training, basic Search and Rescue (SAR) training first-aid training, and financial assistance with regard to equipment costs” (Pearce, 2003).

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Figure 25. (Left) Earthquake hazard map of US showing California’s vulnerability (USGS, 2014); and (right) the 2018 cost of disasters to US (Smith, 2019).

Australia & New Zealand Australia and New Zealand have focused their disaster management from response and recovery issues to mitigation issues – a shift that involves public participation (Pearce, 2003).

The Australia/New Zealand Risk Management Standard states that “risk management is a framework for the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of identifying, analyzing, evaluating, treating and monitoring risk” (Australian/ New Zealand Standards Associations, 2004). This means that the local-level-bottom-up policy provides the catalyst for implementing mitigation strategies (Pearce, 2003). The March-2019 flooding in Townsville in Queensland, Australia, consisting of low dense neighbourhoods, has proven the importance of community and its inclusion in the disaster planning stages.

The shift in disaster management strategies from reactive to proactive approach was noticed, where, a top down planning for communities is now planning ‘with’ communities. A strong emphasis is now placed in policy on working and relating with the communities and their networks to disaster planning approaches (Bergin, 2019).

Figure 26. (Left) Queensland, Australia’s organizational map in community disaster management (Source: Queensland Government, 2019); and, (right) New Zealand’s map showing the different earthquake risk levels for each part of the country as specified in its 2004 building code (Source: Ministry of Business, 2019).

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Climate Change Impacts Figure 27. Rock and Ice slide threat map of Trolla (Source: NGU, 2019).

Ice fallout Rockslide

(a)

Soil erosion

Figure 28. Soil erosion threat map of Trolla (Source: NGU, 2019).

(b)

Depth 25-50 cm Depth 50-100 cm Depth 100-200 cm

(c)

Figure 29. Sinking terrain threat map of Trolla (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2019).

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Depth > 200 cm

Actual threats in Trolla (as shown on left page) a. Rock/Ice slide on the main road b. Erosion due to quick clay slide c. Sinking terrain especially next to the protected buildings d. Forest fire especially during warmer and dry seasons (warning from www.yr.no in appendix).

Trolla

Figure 30. Map of exposure to Flood, watershed in Trondheim through ArcGIS (Source: Authors, 2019).

Immediate threat in Trolla: Flood An urban flooding assessment in the community of Trolla formulated and shown below, is relevant to visualize the possible scenario for a contingency event. Using ArCGIS mapping, the exposure to flood and water runoff are identified.

Regarding the elements at risk, manholes are considered in the event of a heavy rain producing a lot of surface water runoff. Some manholes may need to take in much more wa-

Figure 31. Map of highly affected area in Trondheim within the watershed through ArcGIS (Source: Authors, 2019).

ter than other manholes. Hence, these critical manholes have been identified. During a flood event, the surface water typically brings a lot of debris that can potentially block manholes, culverts and even subways. If so, water will take new routes and the nearby buildings and bridges may be adversely affected. Additionally, the culverts, subways, bridges and buildings may already be situated in places where much water are likely to accumulate. With the aid of this assessment, one or more of these critical areas were identified that the community or institution could monitor using a network of sensors and/or citizen sensing.

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Trolla

Figure 32. Map of Overview of watershed in Trondheim through ArcGIS (Source: Authors, 2019).

Assessment: The flow accumulation tool models surface flow well in most areas, following the course of existing river, as well as the model for surface runoff. In some areas the models shows flows that are not mirrored by existing rivers (i.e. near the coast). This likely shows that the water direction would take in the event of extreme rainfall or floods.

Trolla

Figure 33. Map of quality assessment of surface flow model in Trondheim through ArcGIS (Source: Authors, 2019).

Future threats in Trolla (shown on next page in one map) a. Average sea level on year 2050 and year 2100 b. Sea level rise c. Storm surge d. Coral deaths (details in the report by Norwegian Environment Agency is attached here in the Appendix).

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Figure 34. Map of 200-year sea level rise and storm surge in Trolla (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2019).

3.2 Risk and Vulnerability Assessment From the risk and vulnerability matrix of Trondheim municipality, including the scenarios, Trolla could be of high risk to landslides, water contamination, sinking grounds, larger water run-offs, sea level rising that may cause damages to infrastructures, protected buildings, houses and even death. Below are assumed scenarios according to the risk types.

Type of Risk

Assumed Scenarios

Low

flooding or damage of just one or two houses

Medium

soil erosion along the coast, landslides on the national road and several houses damaged

High

the whole area collapsed with more than 300 houses damaged, cars eroded, casualties, totally damaged infrastructures, etc.

Table 2. Table of Risk types and assumed scenarios for climate change impacts in Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

However, with substantial resources such as financial, social, and human, the risks are transferred. Additionally, with sufficient contingency planning, their vulnerability would be decreased. The World Bank (2012) came up with an operational framework in managing climate and disaster risk, as shown below. This framework is also applicable for the Trolla community.

PILLAR 2 Risk Reduction

PILLAR 1

Avoided creation of new risks and reduced risks in society through greater disaster and climate risk consideration in policy and investment.

PILLAR 3 Preparedness

Improved capacity to manage cities through developing forecasting, early warning and contingency plans.

PILLAR 4 Financial Protection

Increased financial resilience of governments, private sector and household through financial protection strategies.

PILLAR 5 Resilient Reconstruction

Quicker, more resilient recovery through support for reconstruction planning

Risk Identification

Improved identification and understanding of disaster and climate risks through building capacity for assessments and analysis.

Figure 35. Operational framework for managing climate and disaster risk (Sendai report) (Source: World Bank, 2012).

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3.3 Decision tree Analysis

The decision tree analysis shows the flooding and landslides as the probable risks that can happe to the year proximity such as 20 and 50 years with three different levels of risk: low, medium and high, ventions.

The base case scenario is called ”nothing happens” while ”something happens” for both expecte or road block, for example. Unexpected weather events are those that are defined on the different typ done. It is also a proactive way of knowing the unknowns and yet, considering also the known-knowns

DECISION TREE : 0-20 Years 0 – 5 Years 5 – 10 Years 10 – 20 Years

High Risk

YES

RISK

Low Risk

NO

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Medium Risk

en in Trolla due to increased precipitation, snowmelt and sea level rising. Analysing them according , the results would be sufficient to be used in specifically identifying the necessary goals and inter-

ed and unexpected weather events. Expected here means the usual events but can still cause hazards pes of risk (i.e. low, medium, high). By doing so, the account for both certain and uncertain events are s and even the unknown-unknowns (Rumsfeld in 2002).

Resilient infrastructure – Roads & Housing Something Happens

An amphibious port with emergency boats/rafts

Planting trees/bushes as slope retainers & Community preparedness Nothing Happens

Potential Insurance Schemes

Building dikes and Watergates Something Happens

Opening underground creeks Strengthen adaptive capacity

Nothing Happens

Community preparedness & Risk Mapping

Resilient Infrastructure Something Happens

Emergency Shelters and boats Strengthen adaptive capacity

Nothing Happens

Nothing Happens

Community preparedness & Risk Mapping Documentation of processes for the future.

Conducting community risk preparedness activities Efficient and resilient Infrastructure planning

Something Happens

Contingency planning - emergency Community Self-mobilisation

Figure 36. Decision-tree for 0-20 years for probable flood/landslide risks that can happen in Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

25 25

DECISION TREE: 20-50 Years

High Risk

YES

RISK

Low Risk

NO

20 – 30 Years 30 – 40 Years

26 26

40 – 50 Years

Medium Risk

Resilient infrastructure on land and water.

Something Happens

Full fledged Port at Trolla with emergency boats/rafts for evacuation.

Diversion of Flow, reduction of impacts of Soil Erosion.

Nothing Happens

Insurance Schemes and evacuation plan in place. People of the community have their designated roles to play.

Risk reduction of water contamination.

Something Happens

Enhancing drainage mechanisms.

Strengthen adaptive capacity.

Nothing Happens

Community preparedness & Stakeholder mapping in place.

Resilient Infrastructure – Physical and Social

Something Happens

Emergency housing and evacuation.

Strengthen adaptive capacity

Nothing Happens

Nothing Happens

Community preparedness & Risk Mapping Documentation of processes for the future.

Community Knowledge transfer and update mechanisms in place.

Efficient and resilient Infrastructure planning

Something Happens

Contingency planning - emergency Community Self-mobilisation

Figure 37. Decision-tree for 20-50 years for probable flood/landslide risks that can happen in Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

27 27

3.4 Identifying Goals and Interventions From the decision tree analysis, the goals and interventions have been identified.

Goals: Accessibility & Mobility •

Nature & ecology

To protect the surrounding road • infrastructures from damage.

To protect the water from contamination.

•

To prevent paralyzing current water supply and to have alternatives.

• To utilize other means of trans port for emergency purposes.

•

Water •

To increase stability of the slopes and shore lines.

To strengthen the communication network.

People and community •

To strengthen the adaptive capacity within the community.

•

To enable preparedness and risk awareness in the community.

Vertical infrastructures •

To protect the residential and protected buildings from damage.

Others •

To promote waste management, recycling

Table 3. Table of Goals identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Compendium) (Source: Authors, 2019).

Proposed Interventions: Infrastructure

Water

•

Building slope protection and sea wall.

•

Make room for another outflow

•

Building resilient road infrastructures and alternative roads for emergencies

•

Building dikes

•

Building an amphibious port with emergency rafts/boats

•

Building water gates

•

Building emergency shelters on land and on water People & Community

Nature & Ecology

•

Conduct several trainings and workshops in emergency rpeparedness

•

Planting more trees or bushes as slope retainers

•

Skills inventory for adaptive capacity

•

Opening the natural underground creeks

•

Organize within themselves an emergeny team/committee

Table 4. Table of Proposed Interventions identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Compendium) (Source: Authors, 2019).

28

3.5 Stakeholder Analysis The stakeholder analysis conducted identified several notable personalities and agencies that have tremendous effect in terms of their interests and power over the Trolla community. They are identified in a graph shown on the next page.

The Community of Trolla (Trolla Vel) is regarded to have a high stake in this scenario where it must be on top of every situation such as planning, response, and/or management.

The community, however, has to coordinate with the municipality and other government agencies with regards to acquiring information, trainings and release of funds for the infrastructures Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) like Salvation Army, Trondheim Red Cross can activate governance during and after disaster because they have the capacity, not only in terms of financial, but also, human/skills. These can also do coordinations between the municipality and Trolla Vel. Military/defence forces and the Search & rescue corps are mandated to respond during disasters and to provide safety services.

Educational institutions, telecommunication companies, the airport, hospital and air transports have the responsibility to respond when necessary, especially, during emergency cases.

Other institutions like the church, humanitarian, and human rights NGOs, even the search and rescue dogs are necessary for additional supports and services when needed especially providing food, specific rights for women and children who may be vulnerable when disaster happens, etc.

Figure 38. Stakeholder map for Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

29 29

3.6 Matrix

From the goals and interventions, a matrix was formulated. Using the compendium, cross-checkin Goals Accessibility & Mobility Interventions

To protect the surrounding road infrastructures from damage.

Water

To utilize other To strengthen To protect water means of trans- the communica- supply from conport for emertion network. tamination. gency purposes.

A. Infrastructure 1. Building slope protection and sea wall.

2. Building resilient road infrastructures and alternatives roads for emergencies.

+

+

++

++

3. Building an amphibious port with emergency rafts/boats.

4. Building emergency shelters on land and on water.

+

+++ +

+

B. People & community 1. Conduct several trainings and workshops in emergency preparedness.

+

2. Conduct hazard mapping by the community members.

++

o

+++

3. Organize within themselves a group of emergency team/committee.

++

++

o

C. Water 1. Make room for another outflow.

++

o

+++

2. Building dikes.

++

o

++

3. Building water gates.

++

o

+++

1. Planting trees or bushes as slope retainers.

++

+

o

2. Opening the natural underground creeks.

++

+

o

D. Nature & ecology

Legend: + - contributes; ++ - contributes greatly; +++ - very practical; o - potential contribution

Table 5. Table of Matrix to cross-check both the Goals and Interventions identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Com (Source: Authors, 2019).

30

ng goals with the interventions contribute to the contingency plan formulated.

To prevent paralyzing current water supply and to have alternatives.

Nature & ecology

People and community

Vertical infrastructures

Others

To increase stability of the slopes and shore lines.

To strengthen the adaptive capacity within the community.

To protect the residential and protected buildings from damage.

To promote waste management, recycling

To enable preparedness and risk awareness in the community.

+++

+++

++

+

++

+

++

+

+

+

+

+

+

+++

+++

++

++

+

+++

++

+

+++

++

++

+++

+

+

+

++

o

++

++

o

++

++

o

o

+++

o

++

o

o

o

o

mpendium.

31 31

3.7 Matrix Findings Short Term Organize emergency team

Building emergency rafts/boats, shelters on land and on water

Long Term Adaptive capacity building

Building slope protection

Building shore protection (sea wall) Table 6. Table of Matrix findings showing both short and long term adapatation measures for Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

3.8 Cost Benefit Two scenarios are considered to get the benefit-cost ratio. Low/Medium and High risks which were identified on p. 23 under Chapter 3.2 of this report are considered for cost of damages. Also, to get the costs of climate change adaptation, the short and long terms are utilized.

Scenario 1: Low/Medium Risks Scenario 2: High Risk Cost of Damages: 879,2 M NOK

Cost of Damages: 2,37 B NOK

Stakeholder map

Short Term

Long Term

Cost of Adaptation: 771,8 M NOK

Cost of Adaptation: 1,24 B NOK

Assume that the cost of damages will be cost of benefit when the adaptation measures (i.e. short and long terms above) will be implemented.

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

879,2 / 771,8 = 1,14

2,37 / 1,24 = 1,91

Detailed computation is presented in the appendix. In the long run, when the measures for the climate change adaptation will be implemented, the benefit will always surpass their costs. It is recommended, however, to conduct sensitivity analyses of these costs and use social discounting rates recommended by the Norwegian Ministry of Finance for a more accurate cost-benefit analysis.

32 32

4. PROPOSED CONTINGENCY PLAN

From the various steps taken above, the proposed contingency plan for Trolla is detailed below.

4.1.1 Low density

4.1.2 Substantial resource

Trolla has 549 inhabitants, ca. 300 households, and located 6,8 km from the city centrum.

Trolla is 8th highest earner in Trondheim.

Trolla is 13th highest in Trondheim with children 0-17 years old.

Trolla has a strong social network within as evidenced by their social media page (Trolla Vel).

Trolla is 9th lowest in Trondheim that has immigrants.

4.1

Scenario 4.1.3 No Disaster Management Authority By activating its existing social capital,Trolla can manage to collaborate and coordinate with different stakeholders and government agencies for disaster preparedness and relief.

Equally important is to utilize and build up Trolla’s inert human capital for skills- & knowledgeacquisition and sharing regarding disaster preparedness.

4.1.4 Climate Change Impacts Climate change impacts in Trolla are classified into three.

1. Actual threats: erosion due to quick clay, rock/ice slides, and sinking of the ground on the coastal area and forest fire.

2. Immediate threat: flood/landslides due to predicted frequent precipitation resulting into more runoff water from the mountainside.

3. Future threats: sea level rising and storm surges and coral deaths.

33 33

4.2.1 Encourage community participation in safety and relief operations.

By assuring the community that their participation will be for their own benefit can surely result into something productive and useful during disaster, and can save lives.

4.2

Response Strategy

4.2.2 Provide coastal/slope protections without compromising biodiversity, spatial quality, etc.

The use of construction materials such as concrete in constructing the infrastructures necessary for providing a stringent and robust slope/coastal protections may be harmful to some organisms on ground, but this can be augmented by planting slope retainers. In the long run, when the slopes are protected against landslides, the biodiversity will thrive. The provision of infrastructures are discussed and shown on next section (3).

4.3

Implementation Plan

4.3.1Engage the community by conducting trainings & seminars on safety & relief operations.

Coordination and collaboration with organizations like Red Cross and government agencies like the police, Trolla will be able to build their capacity in disaster preparedness and relief through trainings and seminars.

Figure 39. Helicopter rescue of the stranded-on-sea Viking cruise shipby Norwegian rescue team (Source: LATimes, 2019).

34

4.3.2 Implement (a) short term amphibious port with emergency rafts/boats, emergency shelters; and, (b) long term slope/coastal protection (i.e. sea wall, retaining walls, erosion control), resilient road infrastructures, dikes and gates.

Illustrations and collages below and on next page show the type of multi-scalar infrastructures that should be implemented in accordance with this contingency plan.

(i)

Slope retainers

Wave return sea wall (ii) Figure 40. (i) & (ii) Illustration of long term sea wall, erosion control, retaining wall for Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

35 35

4.4.1 Organizing the com

4.4.2 Collaboration with Norway).

Figure 42. Organizational Framework for Trolla Vel

Organizational Framework for T

The framework shows that Trolla der. The team acts as a coordina tingency planning. National, cou for disaster preparedness and di Figure 41. Floating port, life-saving rafts, retaining walls illustrations (Source: Various).

36

mmunity disaster management team.

h the different stakeholders (in Trolla, Trondheim and

4.4

Operational Support Plan

l Disaster Management Team (Source: Næss et.al. 2004).

Trolla Vel on Disaster Preparedness

Vel Disaster Management Team consists of several functions that may be headed by a team leaating body with the Municipality and other interest groups in the disaster preparedness and conunty and municipal government agencies shall perform their respective duties and responsibilities isaster relief operations but involving Trolla community.

37 37

4.5.2 Frequent trainings in the community to strengthen their adaptive capacity.

4.5.1 Identify and locate flood-prone areas and areas vulnerable to erosion and landslides.

The Urban Flooding Assessment through GIS mapping presented on pp.19-20 of this report can be a helpful tool in identifying vulnerable areas in Trolla. A Damage Assessment can also supplement in this plan.

4.5

Hazard mapping aside from the urban flooding assessment can be a useful tool in training the community of Trolla to build their adaptive capacity. Integrating this with the right behavioural change required to keep the safety and security the utmost priority in the community is the way forward in order to uphold this contingency plan.

Preparedness Plan

4.5.3 Allocating investments for insurance and constructions of flood/erosion protections.

The costs that can be allocated to make this contingency plan tangible is shown on the next section (6).

4.6.1 Short term: 771,8M NOK This covers the emergency shelters on land and water and the emergency rafts/ boats. This also includes insurances for minimal damages to houses and infrastructures. Source of funding is government.

38

4.6

Budget

4.6.2 Long term: 1,24B NOK Covers allocation for upgrading bridges, roads, slope stabilizers, culverts, sea wall construction & trainings and seminars with NGOs and government.

Source of funding is the government.

5. Discussion and Conclusion

This report shows a contingency plan as a product of several analyses and processes. To draw the suitable conclusion, it is necessary to answer the research question posed on page 13 of this report, that is: In the absence of a disaster management authority, how can low-densed, substantially-resourced communities prepare/mobilise for disasters caused by the climate change impacts?

The answer lies on various factors shown in this report. One is reliance on the social, human, financial capitals of a community. However, it is to stress that these capitals can be solely dependable if substantial resources are found. In the case study area of Trolla, its community has a well-connected social network as evidenced by their social media account (as shown on p. 4 of this report). This shows how important social cohesion is in disaster response and preparedness.

Moreover, from figure 23, for a purposeful and material intervention, mobilizing the existing social capital would act as a useful mediation among the community members and other actors to mitigate climate change risk in the vicinity. The three other case studies presented on pp.18-19 show how a low-dense, substantially-resourced countries like Iceland, Canada, and Australia can activate their communities in disaster response and preparedness. These countries, though, have disaster management authorities in place but their community disaster management programs are formidable sources of inspiration for communities worldwide that do not have a functioning disaster management authority.

Financial capital in the form of insurances available can clearly diminish the risk by curtailing the uncertainty of loss of livelihoods, damage to properties, infrastructures and protected buildings, and even loss of lives.

The involvement of households, NGOs, and corporations can augment the lack of government support in disaster risk mitigation and management. These private initiatives can act as a governing body to immediately respond to disasters or in contingency planning. Unlike government agencies, they do not require a hierarchical and bureaucratic way of working. Having the set of skills, the human capital, to be able to plan contingency and mitigate disaster risks, there is no doubt that the community at the center of disaster response and preparedness can manage. It is also important that in cases of disasters, cooperation between the community and government and experts should be mostly exploited.

Anticipating the worst-case scenarios for the climate change impacts can help in disaster preparedness. Using the low, medium and high risks and scenarios such as ”nothing happens” and ”something happens” and on different temporal scales in the decision tree aided in identifying the required and necessary mitigation measures for each. The task of cross-checking them altogether can determine the appropriate and contextual contingency plan for disaster preparedness.

The provision of emergency shelters and building multi-scalar resilient infrastructures are helpful in anticipating the worst-case scenarios of the climate change impacts. More importantly, providing trainings among members can build the adaptive capacity that is required to prepare themselves for the stresses and shocks that the climate change hazards such as flood or landslides may bring. The focus is to strengthen both the physical and social infrastructures of the community. These adaptation methods would appear cheaper in the long run than the mitigation processes.

Lastly, evaluating the performance of the contingency plan and updating it regularly can make it more relevant and appropriate to the needs of the times. Through this, the uncertainties brought about by a changing climate can be proactively addressed.

39

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41

List of Figures and Tables A. Figures Figure 1. Picture of Trolla village in March of 2019 during a snow storm. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 2. Map of Trolla with Norway and Trondheim (Source: Google, 2019).

Figure 3. Landslide risk warning for Trolla for 23rd March 2019 (Yr.no, 2019).

Figure 4. Map of Trolla (Norkart AS, 2019).

Figure 5. Houses on the slopes of Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 6. Terrain profile of Trolla (Norkart AS, 2019).

Figure 7 & 8. The Community of Trolla having a get-together. Photos taken from facebook page of Trolla Vel (Trolla Vel, 2019).

Figure 9. Flood event in Trolla in 2004 (NRK, 2004).

Figure 10 & 11. News clippings of the flood event in Trolla in 2004 (Adressavisa, 2004, Bondø and Stenersen, 2004).

Figure 12. Map of Trolla highlighting some buildings with antiquarian value. (Trondheim kommune, 2019).

Figure 13 & 14. Pictures of buildings with antiquarian value in Trolla. (Trondheim kommune, 2019) Figure 15. (a) Demographic status, (b) house types, and, (c) Socio-economic statistics in Trolla (Trondheim kommune, 2018).

Figure 16. The core concept of climate-related risks, hazard vulnerability and exposure (IPCC, 2014).

Figure 17. Illustration of high-dense versus low-dense neighborhoods (Adam-Smith, 2013).

Figure 18. Weather statistics for Trondheim (Voll station) for the period March 2018 to March 2019 (Yr.no, 2019).

Figure 19. Illustration of insurance to climate change impacts (iStock, 2019).

Figure 20. Schematic diagram of the methodology. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 21. “Give the boy a plan” (Rasqoh, 2017).

Figure 22. Risk and Vulnerability Matrix (Trondheim kommune, 2012).

Figure 23. Mapping adaptive capacity by social capital (Pelling and High, 2005).

Figure 24. Hazard maps for (left) Iceland’s southern region with Katla volcano (Bird et al., 2011); and, (right) Vancouver’s vulnerability to seismic activity (Natural Resources Canada, 2017).

Figure 25. (Left) Earthquake hazard map of US showing California’s vulnerability (USGS, 2014); and (right) the 2018 cost of disasters to US (Smith, 2019).

Figure 26. (Left) Queensland, Australia’s organizational map in community disaster management (Queensland Government, 2019); and, (right) New Zealand’s map showing the different earthquake risk levels for each part of the country as specified in its 2004 building code (Ministry of Business, 2019).

Figure 27. Rock and Ice slide threat map of Trolla (NGU, 2019).

Figure 28. Soil erosion threat map of Trolla (NGU, 2019).

Figure 29. Sinking terrain threat map of Trolla (Trondheim kommune, 2019).

Figure 30. Map of exposure to Flood, watershed in Trondheim through ArcGIS. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 31. Map of highly affected area in Trondheim within the watershed through ArcGIS. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 32. Map of Overview of watershed in Trondheim through ArcGIS. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 33. Map of quality assessment of surface flow model in Trondheim through ArcGIS. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 34. Map of 200-year sea level rise and storm surge in Trolla (Trondheim kommune, 2019).

Figure 35. Operational framework for managing climate and disaster risk (Sendai report) (World Bank, 2012).

Figure 36. Decision-tree for 0-20 years for probable flood/landslide risks that can happen in Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 37. Decision-tree for 20-50 years for probable flood/landslide risks that can happen in Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 38. Stakeholder map for Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 39. Helicopter rescue by Norwegian rescue team (LATimes, 2019).

Figure 40. (i) & (ii) Illustration of long term sea wall, erosion control, retaining wall for Trolla (Source: Authors, 2019).

Figure 41. Floating port, life-saving rafts, retaining walls illustrations (Source: Various).

Figure 42. Organizational Framework for Trolla Vel Disaster Management Team (Næss et al., 2005).

B. Tables Table 1. Datasets for the urban flooding geodatabase for Trondheim. (Source: NTNU, 2019).

Table 2. Table of Risk types and assumed scenarios for climate change impacts in Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Table 3. Table of Goals identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Compendium). (Source: Authors, 2019).

Table 4. Table of Proposed Interventions identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Compendium). Source: Authors, 2019).

Table 5. Table of Matrix to cross-check both the Goals and Interventions identified as a result of the decision tree analysis for risks (Format from Compendium. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Table 6. Table of Matrix findings showing both short and long term adapatation measures for Trolla. (Source: Authors, 2019).

Appendix Contents: Cost Detailed Computations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cost of Adaptation Cost of Damage Supporting documents for cost computation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cost of road construction E39 Road tax Weather forecast / statistics for Trolla from yr.no . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Forecast for Trolla for 29.04.2019 Forest fire warning Weather forecast statistics for Trolla Ocean acidification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

i iii ix

xv

COST of ADAPTATION No.

Works

Cost (in NOK)

Comment

A. SHORT TERM

1

Construction of port

13 000 000

2

Raft/pontoon construction

5 000 000

3

Emergency shelter

753 081 000

4

Protection

700 000 771 781 000

Sourced from the cost of new port construction in Longyear city in Svalbard by the Norwegian Coastal Administration. The document can be accessed through https://www.kystverket.no/globalassets/utbyggingav-fiskerihavner-og-farleder/20180209-arsplan--kap1360-kystverket.pdf Sourced from the cost of a floating sauna in Oslo made of wood. The article can be accessed through https://www.thelocal.no/20180305/oslo-to-getsecond-floating-sauna.

The Statistics Bureau of Norway reports that a new detached house in 2018 costs 35 861 per sq.m. The shelter can be 21 000 sq.m (300 x 70 sq.m.). Source: https://www.ssb.no/en/priser-ogprisindekser/statistikker/kvadenebol/aar https://www.ssb.no/en/bygg-bolig-ogeiendom/statistikker/brann_kostra TOTAL Cost of Adaptation

A. LONG TERM

1

House Insurance

477 000 000

2

Upgrade of bridges

8 000 000

3

Roads upgrade

127 198 400

4

Slope stabilization

7 161 600

5

Upgrade of culverts, manholes, pipelines

6 447 600

6

Sea wall construction

618 000 000

7

Yearly maintenance of roads, culverts, bridges

324 692 1 244 132 292

i

From https://www.finn.no/realestate/homes/ad.html?fin nkode=144756878, a new house in Trolla costs 1,59 M NOK multiply by 300 houses is 477 M NOK. There are 2 bridges in Trolla. Source of infomation is https://www.vegvesen.no/vegkart/vegkart/#kartlag :geodata/vegreferanse:266017.90703581413:70447 32.532173398/hva:(~(farge:'0_1,id:822),(farge:'1_0,i d:60),(farge:'2_1,id:445),(farge:'3_0,id:532))/@2660 74,7044425,14.826666666666664/vegobjekt:64044 1938:2296f2:60. From the Norwegian Public Roads Administration or SVV, the cost of one bridge to be upgraded to adapt to climate change is 4M NOK .

The total road lenght in Trolla is 5968 m. Source of information is same as no.2. To compute the upgrade of roads to adapt to climate change, the SVV has a handbook called "Kostnader av klimaendringer" that explains how to compute this.

The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" explains that slope stabilization costs 150 kr per sq.m. For a 5968 m by 8-m wide, this is the total.

The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" of SVV explains this.

Assuming 309M NOK per km for 2km sea wall. https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/2044357/bi nary/1289217?fast_title=Costs++The+E39+Coastal+Highway+Route.pdf The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" of SVV explains this.

TOTAL Cost of Adaptation

COST of DAMAGES No.

Works

Cost (in NOK)

Comment

190 800 000

From https://www.finn.no/realestate/homes/ad.h tml?finnkode=144756878, a new house in Trolla costs 1,59 M NOK multiply by 120 damaged houses is 190,8 M NOK.

A. Scenario 1: Low/Medium Risks

1

House Insurance for ca. 120 houses

2

Repair of damaged road ca.

2,2 km

680 000 000

3

Damages and repair to protected buildings

5 000 000

4 5 6

Upgrade of culverts, manholes on the 2,2km stretch Road tax loss Yearly maintenance

2 376 796 900 000 111 996 879 188 792

The cost for new road according to statens vegvesen is 309,1 M NOK per km. According to the document on E39. https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/204 4357/binary/1289217?fast_title=Costs++The+E39+Coastal+Highway+Route.pdf https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/han dle/11250/175613/nypan_cultural_heritage. pdf?sequence=1 2,2km is 37% of 5968 m. This is then multiplied to the cost of upgrade according to "Kostnader av klimaendringer" by SVV. 30 days road block 37% of yearly maintenance TOTAL Cost of Damages

B. Scenario 2: High Risk

1

House Insurance

477 000 000

2

New bridge construction

22 000 000

3

New Road construction

1 844 654 546

4

Slope stabilization

7 161 600

5 6

7

New installation of culverts, manholes, pipelines Yearly maintenance of roads, culverts, bridges

Road tax loss

From https://www.finn.no/realestate/homes/ad.h tml?finnkode=144756878, a new house in Trolla costs 1,59 M NOK multiply by 300 houses is 477 M NOK. There are 2 bridges in Trolla. Source of infomation is https://www.vegvesen.no/vegkart/vegkart/# kartlag:geodata/vegreferanse:266017.90703 581413:7044732.532173398/hva:(~(farge:'0 _1,id:822),(farge:'1_0,id:60),(farge:'2_1,id:44 5),(farge:'3_0,id:532))/@266074,7044425,14 .826666666666664/vegobjekt:640441938:22 96f2:60. From the Norwegian Public Roads Administration or SVV, the cost of new construction of one bridge is 11M NOK. The total road lenght in Trolla is 5968 m.

Source of information is same as no.2. The cost for new road according to statens vegvesen is 309,1 M NOK per km. According to the document on E39. https://www.vegvesen.no/_attachment/204 4357/binary/1289217?fast_title=Costs++The+E39+Coastal+Highway+Route.pdf The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" explains that slope stabilization costs 150 kr per sq.m. For a 5968 m by 8-m wide, this is the total.

6 483 420

The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" of SVV explains this.

324 692

The handbook "Kostnader av klimaendringer" of SVV explains this.

10 800 000

2 368 424 258

Loss of road tax due to damaged roads. https://www.tff.no/informasjon/trafikkforsik ringsavgift. Along the road is 3000 average daily traffic multipy by 10 kr per car as road tax then by 30 days then by 12 months new reconstruction.

TOTAL Cost of Damages ii

The Coastal Highway Route E39: Costs

n

Octobe r 20 1 8

The case in brief

Background information

In 2016 the cost of the E39 Coastal Highway Route was estimated to be NOK 340 billion. About 30 billion will be spent improving the roads in and around the cities along the route.

• The aim of an improved and continuous E39 Coastal Highway Route is maintained, and is repeated in the new NTP 2018-2029 • The project has been gradually developed from its original, in line with new expectations about safety requirements, improved road standards and higher speed limits.

The 2016 estimate includes the costs of all fjord crossings, as well as of the improvements on land and of measures in connection with urban areas. Sognefjorden was not included in the first calculations, and neither were the comprehensive city projects in Stavanger and Bergen.

The cost estimate for the construction of an improved and continuous E39 between Kristiansand and Trondheim includes NOK 50 billion for the section of Kristiansand- Ålgard, for which Nye Veier A/S is responsible.

Cost estimates are increasingly accurate and in some cases adjusted due to new knowledge about local conditions and requests for local adaptations. Since the first cost estimates for the entire distance were presented, VAT has been introduced (1 January 2013).

• Initially the goal was to reduce travel time by seven or eight hours. By raising the standard and thus also the speed limit, travel time will be reduced by more than 10 hours - which is a 50% reduction of today’s travel time of 21 hours.

• Expenses for freight transport on this route will be reduced by 50% when the E39 has been completed and the toll period has expired.

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration has in recent years made extensive efforts to develop the technology required for an optimal implementation of the project. So far in we have significantly reduced the costs of several projects, as new technology and increased knowledge about soil conditions and wind loads have made it possible to optimise structures. Cost cutting is a continuous process that will be kept up until construction begins.

GOAL The E39 from Kristiansand to Trondheim is approx. 1100 km.Current travel time is approx. 21 hrs, including 7 ferry connections.The aim is to create an improved E39 without ferries, which will reduce the travel time to 11 hours.

More information: vegvesen.no/ferjefrie39 and facebook.com/ferjefrie39

iii

Our long term goal is for the entire E39 to have a central reservation or crash barrier between opposite-direction traffic (four-lane motorway or two/three-lane road with central crash barrier). The sections between Kristiansand and Bergen, and between Ålesund and Molde, are being planned as four-lane motorways.

Increased speed on the road requires a higher standard and longer sight distance, in other words a straighter alignment. The requirement for sight distance affects bridge length and tunnel width, and also leads to larger road cuttings and embankments. This makes the road and some of the structures more expensive.

Stricter requirements have been set with regard to accessiblity for boats (vertical clearance). Additionally, some sections originally planned as open-air road have been placed in tunnels to protect the environment and existing built-up areas.

We are considering alternative construction strategies, for example incremental construction. It is possible to build the road sections between the fiords with a lower standard, and then improve that standard as the traffic volume increases. We are considering this approach in order to reduce investment costs, even though it implies a longer construction period before the entire route is “complete”. A new construction strategy for the entire project is to be published in early 2019.

(Sources: https://www.vegvesen.no/en/roads/Roads +and+bridges/Road+projects/ e39coastalhighwayroute/reports)

More information: vegvesen.no/ferjefrie39 and facebook.com/ferjefrie39 iv

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Trafikkforsikringsavgift v

Årsavgiften er erstattet med en trafikkforsikringsavgift til staten. Dette gir større fleksibilitet for deg som eier av et kjøretøy.

Hva betyr dette for deg?

Alle registrerte kjøretøy under 7 500 kg må betale trafikkforsikringsavgift og ha ansvarsforsikring (trafikkforsikring). For tyngre kjøretøy gjelder fortsatt vektårsavgiften som kreves inn av Skatteetaten.

Du skal kun betale trafikkforsikringsavgift for den tiden kjøretøyet er ansvarsforsikret, og trafikkforsikringsavgiften følger forsikringsavtalen på kjøretøyet. Forsikringsselskapene vil kreve inn trafikkforsikringsavgift samtidig med forsikringen, og avgiften blir dermed fordelt etter hvilken betalingsrate du ønsker: måned, kvartal, halvår eller helår.

Trafikkforsikringsavgiften er lik for samme kjøretøy uavhengig av hvilket forsikringsselskap som benyttes. Avgiften vil bli tydelig spesifisert på fakturaen med en egen ordrelinje som markeres Trafikkforsikringsavgift til staten.

Forsikringsplikt Eier av kjøretøyet har forsikringsplikt, og avgiften skal betales for den perioden kjøretøyet er påregistrert.

Dersom kjøretøyet selges, skal ny eier forsikre kjøretøyet og betale trafikkforsikringsavgiften for den perioden ny eier har kjøretøyet registrert.

Det skal ikke betales trafikkforsikringsavgift for avskiltede eller vrakede kjøretøy.

For registrerte kjøretøy som ikke er i bruk eller som ikke er i kjørbar stand, må man enten betale trafikkforsikringsavgift og obligatorisk ansvarsforsikring (trafikkforsikring) eller avskilte kjøretøy. vi

Overgang til trafikkforsikringsavgift har mange fordeler Avgiften kan fordeles gjennom året Du trenger bare å forholde deg til fakturaen fra forsikringsselskapet, som krever inn denne avgiften på vegne av staten Om du har solgt kjøretøyet, betaler du kun for tiden du eide kjøretøyet Du betaler ikke avgiften om du har avregistrert kjøretøy

Tabellen under viser døgnsatsene for trafikkforsikringsavgift. Døgnsatsen bestemmes årlig av Stortinget. Trafikkforsikringsavgiften beregnes utfra en døgnsats x antall døgn kjøretøyet er forsikret.

Avgift skal betales med følgende beløp (kr) per døgn: Kjøretøygrupper

Trafikkforsikringsavtale som tegnes eller har hovedforfall (og gebyr som er utsendt fra TFF): Før 1.3.2018

F.o.m 1.3.2018 t.o.m 28.2.2019

F.o.m 1.3.2019

Bil og buss, diesel uten partikkelfilter

9,01

9,15

9,29

Bil og buss, bensin eller diesel med partikkelfilte

7,73

7,85

7,97

Motorsykkel

5,37

5,46

5,54

Veterankjøretøy, moped, traktor, taxi, motorredskap, beltemotorsykkel (snøscooter) 1,25 med flere

1,27

1,29

Kjøretøy på Svalbard, NATO og ambassader.

Selvassurandører. *Elektrisk bil, buss, motorsykkel, moped og 0,00 traktor. Kjøretøy med hydrogen og brenselcelle.

0,00

Bakgrunn for endring til trafikkforsikringsavgift vii

0,00

Formålet med ordningen er å forenkle og effektivisere skatte- og avgiftsforvaltningen, og gi større fleksibilitet. Årsavgiften er det som tidligere har det vært den høyeste administrative kostnaden blant særavgifter for staten. Ved å pålegge forsikringsselskapene å legge avgiften inn sammen med den obligatoriske ansvarsforsikringen på kjøretøy, sparer staten utsending av fakturaer til alle som eier et registrert kjøretøy.

Trafikkforsikringsavgiften gir også mulighet for større fleksibilitet i avgiften ved kjøp av ny bil, eierskifter, avregistreringer og lignende, ved at eieren av kjøretøyet vil belastes avgiften bare for den tiden kjøretøyet er forsikret.

Andre sider som omtaler trafikkforsikringsavgiften Årsavgift blir trafikkforsikringsavgift. Melding hos Finans Norge i forbindelse med statsbudsjettet [https://www.finansnorge.no/aktuelt/nyheter/2016/10/statsbudsjettet-2017-arsavgift-blirtrafikkavgift/] Årsavgiften erstattes med trafikkforsikringsavgift. Melding på regjeringen.no [https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/skatter-og-avgifter/arsavgiften-leggesom-fra-2018/id2537116/] Les om forskrift om særavgift hos Lovdata [https://lovdata.no/dokument/SF/forskrift/2001-12-11-1451/KAPITTEL_4#KAPITTEL_4] Personvernerklæring[/personvern/] Informasjonskapsler[/informasjonskapsler/]

viii

Printed: 28/04/2019 11:00

Weather forecast for Trolla Meteogram for Trolla Sunday 12:00 to Tuesday 12:00 Monday 29 April

Tuesday 30 April

18° 17° 16° 15° 14° 13° 12° 11° 10° 9° 8°

0.1 0.3 0

14

16

18

20

22

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

0.1 0.3 0.1

0

0

22

0.1

00

0

02

04

06

08

10

Long term forecast for Trolla Tomorrow 29/04/2019

Tuesday 30/04/2019

Wednesday 01/05/2019

Thursday 02/05/2019

Friday 03/05/2019

Saturday 04/05/2019

Sunday 05/05/2019

Monday 06/05/2019

Tuesday 07/05/2019

12°

10°

7°

5°

4°

5°

5°

8°

9°

Cloudy.

Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from westnorthwest. 0 mm precipitation.

Partly cloudy.

Light breeze, 2 m/s from northwest. 0 mm precipitation.

Rain. Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from westnorthwest. 2.6 mm precipitation.

Rain showers.

Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from westnorthwest. 2.7 mm precipitation.

Rain showers.

Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest. 2.2 mm precipitation.

Rain.

Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from west. 2.4 mm precipitation.

Rain. Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from southsoutheast. 2.8 mm precipitation.

Cloudy. Light breeze, 2 m/s from west. 0 mm precipitation.

Cloudy. Light breeze, 3 m/s from south. 0 mm precipitation.

The forecast shows the expected weather and precipitation for the afternoon hours. The temperature and wind forecast is for 12 noon. The forecasts are very accurate the first days, but become less reliable further into the period.

www.yr.no/place/Norway/Trøndelag/Trondheim/Trolla/

ix

yr.no is a weather service from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Norwegian Broadcasting Corp.

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Updated at 4:34.

Trolla, Trondheim (Trøndelag) Ongoing: High forest fire danger Orange severity

Applies to Moere and Romsdal and Troendelag High grass and heater fire hazard in areas without snow until significant amount of precipitation.

Severity Yellow severity - moderate danger Orange severity - considerable danger Red severity - extreme danger The colour tells you how severe the situation can become (hjelp.yr.no) Instructions Be very careful with open fire. Follow the instructions from the local authorities. Emergency services should assess a necessary level of alertness.

Consequences Vegetation is very easily ignited and very large areas may be affected.

Tuesday April 30, 2019 10:00 - Increasing danger Wednesday May 1, 2019 23:00 - Danger is over

Expected: Heavy snow Yellow severity

Applies to Moere and Romsdal and Troendelag From Wednesday evening wintry showers and snow showers are expected. During night time the ground will be covered with snow, locally up to 5 cm, mainly inland. In higher areas more snow is expected, and here the ground will be covered also during day time.

Severity Yellow severity - moderate danger Orange severity - considerable danger Red severity - extreme danger The colour tells you how severe the situation can become (hjelp.yr.no) Instructions Allow some extra time for transportation and driving. Use tires fit for winter conditions and use caution while driving.

Consequences Some journeys may have longer travel time. It can be locally difficult driving conditions.

Wednesday May 1, 2019 20:00 - Increasing danger

Expected: Difficult driving conditions Yellow severity

x

Applies to Moere and Romsdal and Troendelag Difficult driving conditions are expected from Wednesday evening due to wintry showers and snow showers. In the lower areas the danger will decrease during daytime Thursday, but in the evening difficult driving conditions are again expected.

Severity Yellow severity - moderate danger Orange severity - considerable danger Red severity - extreme danger The colour tells you how severe the situation can become (hjelp.yr.no) Instructions Allow extra time for transportation and driving. Use tires fit for winter conditions and use caution while driving Check road reports (175.no).

Consequences Expect difficult driving conditions and local delays.

Wednesday May 1, 2019 20:00 - Increasing danger

Today, Wednesday 01/05/2019 Time

Forecast

The meteorologist’s text forecast

Temp.

Precipitation

Wind

11:00– 12:00

8°

0.5 – 0.9 mm

Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from westnorthwest

12:00– 18:00

7°

2.5 – 4.4 mm

Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from westnorthwest

18:00– 00:00

6°

0 – 0.1 mm

You will find the text forecast at this page.

The meteorologists on Twitter

Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from northwest

Tomorrow, Thursday 02/05/2019 Time

Forecast

Temp.

Precipitation

Wind

00:00– 06:00

4°

0 mm

Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from northwest

06:00– 12:00

3°

0 – 0.7 mm

Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northwest

12:00– 18:00

5°

0 – 0.9 mm

Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest

18:00– 00:00

3°

0 – 0.4 mm

Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from westnorthwest

Temp.

Precipitation

00:00– 06:00

3°

0 – 0.6 mm

06:00– 12:00

2°

0 – 0.1 mm

12:00– 18:00

5°

0 mm

20:00– 02:00

4°

0 mm

Friday, 03/05/2019 Time

Forecast

Wind Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north

Light breeze, 3 m/s from northnorthwest Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north

Sun and moon, 01/05/2019 Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from north-northwest

"Observations" is moving You will find this content on our new website in April.

You can read more about the ongoing changes here.

Observations from the closest weather stations xi

Trondheim (Voll) observation site, 127 m.

The weather today at 11

8.5 km from Trolla

Sun

Moon

Sunrise 04:57

Moonrise 05:24

Sunset 21:36

Moonset 16:27

Weather Temp.

Wind

Temperature last 30 days

Light breeze, 1.8 m/s from southwest

5.7° kl 10

kl 10

More statistics for Trondheim (Voll) observation site

Skjetlein observation site, 44 m.

Weather Temp.

12.4 km from Trolla

Wind

Temperature last 30 days

6.0° kl 10 More statistics for Skjetlein observation site

Rissa observation site, 23 m.

Weather Temp.

22.5 km from Trolla

Wind

Temperature last 30 days

6.2° kl 10 More statistics for Rissa observation site

Precipitation last week

Daily precipitation in millimeters

Wed 01.05

Tue 30.04

Mon 29.04

Sun 28.04

Sat 27.04

Fri 26.04

Thu 25.04

Wed 24.04

Trondheim (Voll)

4.4

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

Leinstrand

4.1

1.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Frosta

3.8

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Observed precipitation last 24 hours at 8 am on indicated day.

Webcams close to Trolla

Trondheim: Sør-Trøndelag, Trondheim Last updated: at 10:30 Distance: 3,3 km

Trondheim: Bymarka Ski hut, Trondheim Last updated: at 10:34 Distance: 4,5 km

Trondheim Havn › West: SørTrøndelag, Trondheim Havn Last updated: at 10:38 Distance: 5,0 km

Added by trondheimhavn.no3399.

Added by cityzoom360.com.

Added by tsftp.no.

Trondheim: Prestegårdsjordet, Trondheim Last updated: at 10:39 Distance: 6,6 km Added by cityzoom360.com.

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Places nearby Trolla Bruk (farm, 72 m away), Brukseier Olsens vei (road, 85 m away), Utsikten (villa, 99 m away), Gogstadbakken (road, 138 m away), Spikarbukta (inlet at sea, 138 m away), Trollahaugen (road, 298 m away), Munkaunet (farm, 316 m away), Trollenget (hillside, 384 m away), Digermulen (small peninsula, 470 m away), Trolla barnehage (kindergarten, 512 m away), Trollbekken (stream, 587 m away), Lykkjadammen (small mountain, 710 m away), Munkauntjønna (pond, 805 m away), Ålbugruva (mine, 816 m away), Tiendalsbekken (stream, 900 m away), Ålbumyra (marsh, 905 m away), Tienddalen (valley, 979 m away), Trollykkja (meadow, 982 m away), Faudalen (valley, 1045 m away), Tiendalsdammen (pond, 1074 m away)

Latitude/longitude: 63°27′05″N 10°18′36″E Decimal coordinates: 63.4516 10.3102

Norwegian place names are regulated by the Norwegian Mapping and Cadastre Authority. Last updated in February 2015.

Altitude: ca. 21 m.a.s.l. (approximate) Approved names: Trolla (accepted by the municipality in 1967).

See it on: Norgeskart.no or Google Maps Free weather data (Javascript- or XMLforecasts)

Category: Housing estate Municipality: Trondheim, Trøndelag.

SSR-ID: 212898 (211076) xii

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Weather statistics for

Trolla, Trondheim (Trøndelag) Ongoing: High forest fire danger Orange severity

Expected: Heavy snow Yellow severity

Expected: Difficult driving conditions Yellow severity

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Trondheim (Voll) observation station (68860) It is the closest official weather station, 8.5 km away from Trolla.

The station was established in January 1923. The station measures precipitation, temperature, snow depths and wind. There may be missing data.

Last 30 days: Average temperature was 7.3 °C, 4.3 °C above the normal. Highest temperature was 22.0 °C (22 April), and the lowest was -7.3 °C (11 April). The total precipitation was 7.0 mm. Highest daily precipitation was 3.9 mm (1 April), measured at 7am (8am daylight savings) for the past 24 hours. Highest wind speed was 6.5 m/s (26 April).

Last 13 full months: Highest temperature was 32.1 °C (27. Jul. 2018) and the lowest -13.7 °C (15. Dec. 2018). Highest daily precipitation was 49.3 mm (11. Aug. 2018). Maximum snow depth was 6 cm (7. Apr. 2018).

Graph explanation.

Tabular view for temperature and precipitation per month Months

Temperature

Precipitation

Average

Normal

Warmest

Coldest

Total

Normal

Highest daily value

Average

Strongest wind

7.3°C

3.0°C

22.0°C Apr 22

-7.3°C Apr 11

7.0 mm

45.0 mm

3.9 mm Apr 1

2.1 m/s

6.5 m/s Apr 26

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Apr 2019

Wind

Mar 2019

0.0°C

0.0°C

13.5°C Mar 28

-13.4°C Mar 6

129.8 mm

50.0 mm

22.6 mm Mar 25

3.2 m/s

13.5 m/s Mar 2

Feb 2019

0.8°C

-2.5°C

10.3°C Feb 14

-12.7°C Feb 5

53.5 mm

50.0 mm

12.1 mm Feb 13

2.8 m/s

14.0 m/s Feb 1

Jan 2019

-2.1°C

-3.0°C

7.8°C Jan 4

-11.7°C Jan 23

139.2 mm

60.0 mm

18.9 mm Jan 4

2.9 m/s

12.5 m/s Jan 1

Dec 2018

-0.2°C

-2.0°C

9.1°C Dec 1

-13.7°C Dec 15

102.0 mm

80.0 mm

20.0 mm Dec 25

2.7 m/s

10.2 m/s Dec 2

Nov 2018

3.5°C

0.5°C

12.6°C Nov 16

-7.8°C Nov 28

32.0 mm

70.0 mm

7.8 mm Nov 17

2.2 m/s

12.1 m/s Nov 2

Oct 2018

5.8°C

5.5°C

21.8°C Oct 14

-6.8°C Oct 29

140.1 mm

100.0 mm

18.3 mm Oct 15

2.6 m/s

10.9 m/s Oct 1

Sep 2018

10.8°C

9.0°C

21.8°C Sep 6

2.2°C Sep 28

127.7 mm

110.0 mm

18.4 mm Sep 23

2.8 m/s

10.8 m/s Sep 2

Aug 2018

13.1°C

12.5°C

29.0°C Aug 1

4.3°C Aug 27

166.7 mm

85.0 mm

49.3 mm Aug 11

2.1 m/s

8.8 m/s Aug 11

Jul 2018

17.3°C

13.0°C

32.1°C Jul 27

7.4°C Jul 8

36.8 mm

90.0 mm

8.6 mm Jul 9

2.0 m/s

8.0 m/s Jul 30

Jun 2018

11.0°C

12.0°C

22.1°C Jun 2

3.8°C Jun 5

42.4 mm

65.0 mm

13.9 mm Jun 19

2.6 m/s

10.2 m/s Jun 1

May 2018

12.9°C

9.0°C

26.9°C May 31

0.4°C May 1

30.4 mm

50.0 mm

9.6 mm May 12

2.2 m/s

8.6 m/s May 10

Apr 2018

5.2°C

3.0°C

15.4°C Apr 19

-7.9°C Apr 1

53.0 mm

45.0 mm

16.0 mm Apr 6

2.3 m/s

9.9 m/s Apr 21

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Ocean acidi)cation Published 02.09.2016 by Norwegian Environment

Lag rapport (/topics/marine-and-coastal-waters/ocean-acidification/Rapport?asPdf=true) Les på norsk (https://www

Agency (/search/? query=author%3aNorwegian+Environment+Agency)

The world’s oceans are becoming more acidic. Over the past 200 years, the average acidity of surface waters has increased by about 26 per cent worldwide, and Arctic waters are particularly vulnerable. Ocean acidification is causing problems for marine organisms with calcareous shells, such as the marine snails known as sea butterflies.

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Planktonic species such as sea butterflies are an important part of the diet of many fish, seabirds and marine mammals. If sea butterflies or other important species are lost, whole food chains may be disrupted and ecosystems will be changed. Photo: Erling Svensen, UWPhoto ANS

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Oceans becoming more acidic Norwegian sea areas, especially in the Arctic, are more vulnerable to ocean acidification. This is because cold water can absorb more CO2 than warmer water, and because freshwater input from rivers and melting ice weakens the buffering capacity of the seawater to counteract acidification. Ongoing changes of the water cycle due to climate change, such as increased precipitation, river runoff and melting of sea ice, may make the oceans more vulnerable and less resilient to acidification.

CO2 levels in Norwegian waters rising Monitoring of pH and dissolved CO2 shows that the CO2 content of seawater in Norwegian waters is increasing. This is caused by increasing CO2 emissions due to human activity and higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Arctic Ocean Acidification (2013) - Short (3 minute) version (http://vimeo.com/65514648) from AMAP (http://vimeo.com/amap) on Vimeo (http://vimeo.com).

Carbonate essential for marine life The increase in acidity in itself can lead to serious effects for marine life, but acidity also contributes to changes in seawater chemistry that may lead to equally serious impacts on marine organisms. As the CO2 concentration in seawater increases, the content of carbonate ions drops. Carbonate is an essential building block for many marine animals and algae that form calcareous shells or skeletons. Examples of such organisms are sea butterflies and cold-water corals.

So far, monitoring has shown that most Norwegian waters have sufficient carbonate. However, the deep waters of the Norwegian Sea (below 2000 metres) are undersaturated with respect to carbonate. Carbonate deficiency is natural in deep water, but the zone of carbonate undersaturation is expanding upwards through the water column, by about 10 metres a year in parts of the Norwegian Sea. In the longer term, it may reach areas where cold-water corals grow. Cold-water corals are found at depths down to 1000 metres.

Clear seasonal variations – long-term trend uncertain Monitoring shows clear seasonal variations in pH in the upper 100 metres of the water column in Norwegian waters. This variation is natural and closely linked to biological activity. In spring and summer, algae grow and absorb CO2, and the seawater becomes less acidic. In autumn and winter, the algae die and decompose, releasing CO2 and making the seawater more acidic again.

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Data from the North Sea also show large variations in pH from year to year, almost as large as the seasonal variations. It is therefore necessary with continued monitoring over multiple years before any long-term trend in pH can be identified in the North Sea. In the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, on the other hand, scientists have been able to show a downward trend in pH by comparing recent monitoring data with the results of research cruises in the 1980s and 1990s. In parts of the Norwegian Sea, the pH of the surface water has decreased by 0.11 units over the past 30 years. This means that the surface water has become roughly 30 per cent more acidic.

IMPACT

Species at risk from ocean acidi)cation As seawater becomes more acidic, less calcium is biologically available. This can cause problems for animals that need calcium in the form of carbonate to build shells or skeletons. Many different groups of animals are at risk, including plankton, shrimps, lobsters, gastropods, bivalves, starfish, sea urchins and corals. In the worst case, many species may go extinct or be outcompeted by other species that are more resilient to acidification.

Planktonic species such as sea butterflies are an important part of the diet of many fish, seabirds and marine mammals. If sea butterflies or other important species are lost, whole food chains may be disrupted and ecosystems will be changed.

There are many cold-water coral reefs and reef complexes along the Norwegian coast. These are extremely slow-growing structures, and some are believed to be several thousand years old. Coral ecosystems provide food and habitats for other marine species. Coral reefs consist of an upper layer of live polyps and a lower layer of dead coral skeletons. The dead zone of the reef is likely to be especially sensitive to ocean acidification. If it disintegrates because the water is deficient in carbonate, the entire reef will be in danger of collapse.

Lower pH may in itself have negative impacts, but so far there is little information about the impacts on marine species.

Research has also shown that changes in pH can influence the availability of nutrients and trace elements for marine organisms. Their availability may increase or decrease as pH drops.

What about the future?

Reducing global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is to date the only known possible mitigation measure for ocean acidification. At present, it seems likely that the CO2 concentration will continue to rise for many years, so that ocean acidification will become an increasingly serious problem in the foreseeable future.

The impacts of ocean acidification have only just begun to be noticable. To start with, CO2 dissolves in surface waters, lowering the pH. The effects gradually spread to deeper and deeper waters. This is a very slow process, and pH levels in the world’s oceans will therefore continue to sink for many years.

Modelling indicates that seawater will become several magnitudes more acidic during this century. This will influence seawater chemistry and therefore have impacts on ecosystems both in coastal waters and in the open sea. The greatest changes will occur in the Arctic.

Impacts expected to become more serious Marine food chains in Arctic waters are relatively simple compared with those in tropical waters, and ecosystems are vulnerable if important species such as sea butterflies disappear. It is highly probable that ocean acidification will have major impacts on ecosystems in these waters, but our knowledge is still limited. xvii

Interactions between ocean acidification, climate change and pollution may exacerbate the negative impacts. However, the picture may not be as consistently negative as first thought. Scientists expect different groups of organisms to respond in different ways. More recent research suggests that some species with calcareous shells can compensate for increased acidity by using more energy to build their shells, provided that they have adequate food supplies.

RESPONSE

Monitoring and research under way Ocean acidification is a relatively new field of research that has been developing rapidly in recent years. It is therefore expected that a good deal of new knowledge about ocean acidification will become available in the time ahead.

Monitoring ocean acidi)cation In 2010, the Norwegian Environment Agency started to monitor ocean acidification in Norwegian waters. In the first instance, the aim is to find out more about natural variability in Norwegian waters and how quickly acidity levels are changing as a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. To obtain a clear picture of the changes that are taking place, it is not enough merely to measure changes in pH. Measurements of changes in the concentrations of other carbon compounds are also needed

>

ocean acidification

● The oceans play a key role in the carbon cycle. Gases in the atmosphere and gases dissolved in seawater or fresh water are in equilibrium. As the CO2 content of the atmosphere rises because of anthropogenic emissions, more CO2 is therefore absorbed by seawater. ● CO2 reacts with water (H2O) to form carbonic acid, and this reaction releases hydrogen ions into the seawater, lowering its pH (in other words making the seawater more acidic). This process is called ocean acidification. ● Some of the hydrogen ions react with carbonate ions in the seawater to form bicarbonate. This removes carbonate from the water, making it less accessible to living organisms. ● Carbonate is essential for organisms that build calcareous shells and skeletons, which consist of calcium carbonate. These organisms may meet serious problems as carbonate levels drop. ● It is estimated that the oceans have so far absorbed about 50 % of all the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by human activity.

Acidification is reducing the capacity of seawater to absorb CO2, and it is estimated that the oceans are now absorbing 25 % of CO2 emissions.

EXTERNAL LINKS AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean AcidiLcation (/links/water/english/amap-assessment-2013-arctic-ocean-acidiLcation/)

AMAP: Arctic Ocean AcidiLcation Assessment: Key Findings 2013 (PDF) (/links/water/english/amap-arctic-ocean-acidiLcation-assessment-key-Lnding Norwegian Environment Directorate: Effects on the marine environment of ocean acidiLcation resulting from elevated levels of CO2 (PDF)

(/links/water/english/norwegian-environment-directorate-effects-on-the-marine-environment-of-ocean-acidiLcation-resulting-from-elevated-levels-of-co2-

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