Urban Contingency - 2019 - Sea level rise on Bakklandet

Assignment 2 AAR5220 – Urban Contingency Planning and Practice Spring 2019

Sea level rise on Bakklandet – A contingency plan on a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods in Trondheim

Group 3 Gunika Rishi, Maciej Papke and Cathrine Fossdal

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Abstract Cities pose an amplified threat of disaster due to climate change. Even though, this vulnerability poses a challenge, it also presents itself as an opportunity for exploring and implementing disaster mitigation and preparedness plans. In this report, the authors will forecast and analyze the threats of future sea level rise on Bakklandet, a district in Trondheim. Based on hypothesis and ground realities of the present state of the district, an urban planning/design intervention is explored. An overarching contingency plan for the next 75 years with a hypothetical scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and a budget are laid down as a proposal.

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Table of contents Abstract……………………………………………………….……….…....………………………..p. 2 Figures………………………………………………..………………………………………………p. 4 Tables…..…………………………………………………………………………………….………p. 4 1. Introduction.……………………………………………………………….………………………p. 5 2. Analysis of context…….…………………………………………………..………………………p. 5 3. Theory………………………………………………………………………….………………….p. 7 3.1. Sea level rise………………………..…………………………..…………….………...p. 7 3.2 Quick clay danger….……………………………………………….……………..…….p. 7 4. Methodology….…………………………………………..………………………..….….…….…p. 8 5. Literature case studies…………………………………….…….……………...……..…….……..p. 8 5.1. Case 1 – The Netherlands………………………….……………………..……….……p. 9 5.2. Case 2 – Tokyo, Japan.………………………………………...………..…….………p. 11 6. Findings…….……………………………………………………………………….……………p. 12 6.1. Documented risk, threats and uncertainties…………………………...…..…….…….p. 12 6.2. Answers form the questionnaire………………………………………………...……..p. 16 7. Contingency plan……………………………………………………………………..…….……p. 17 7.1. Hypothetical scenario……………………………………………………..…….……..p. 17 7.2. Response strategy……………………………………………………………..….…….p.19 7.3. Implementation plan…………………………………………………………………...p. 20 7.4. Operational support plan………………………………………………...…………….p. 22 7.4.1. Stakeholders, institutions and organizations………………………...……...p. 22 7.4.1.1. Trondheim municipality…………………………………...……..p. 22 7.4.1.2. NVE………………………………………………………..….…p. 23 7.4.1.3. Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association…..……...p. 23 7.4.1.4. Other relevant stakeholders, institutions and organizations..…....p. 24 7.5. Preparedness plan……………………………………………………………..………p. 26 7.6. Budget…………………………………………………………………………..…….p. 31 8. Discussion…………………………………………………………………………………..…...p. 32 9. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………..…..p. 32 10. References………………………………………………………………………………..….…p. 34

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Figures Figure 1: Bakklandet…........................................................................................................................p. 5 Figure 2: Water edge of Bakklandet…………………………………………………………………p. 6 Figure 3: Street of Bakklandet…………………………………………………………………….…p. 6 Figure 4: The Delta Works…………………………………………………………………………...p. 9 Figure 5: Concepts for flood prevention…………………………………………………………..…p. 9 Figure 6: A long term holistic perspective of a river bypass in Lent, near Nijmegen……………...p. 10 Figure 7: Local solution to handle flood periods……………………………………….…………..p. 10 Figure 8: Amphibious housing based in Dordrecht, the Netherlands………………………….…..p. 10 Figure 9: Layout of Disaster prevention park in Tokyo………………………………….…..……..p. 11 Figure 10: Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel in Tokyo……….…..……..p. 12 Figure 11: Expected major flood events in 2050 (left) and 2100 (right)…………………….……..p. 12 Figure 12: Average sea level rise in 2050 (left) and 2100 (right)………………………….…….…p. 13 Figure 13: Regulated area regarding sea level rise and storm surge……………………………….p. 14 Figure 14: Areas prone to quick clay landslides……………………………………………………p. 15 Figure 15: Results from the google questionnaire prepared by the team…………………………..p. 17 Figure 16: Height of average expected sea-level rise and expected major flood events in 2050 and 2100 on Bakklandet`s Nidelva river facade……………………………………………………………….p. 27 Figure 17: Pier design shown on the river facade, before and after adding the pier……….…..….p. 28 Figure 18: Street section of Bakklandet, before and after adding the water channel system….…..p. 29 Figure 19: Example of open green space design on Bakklandet (before and after)……………….p. 30

Tables Table 1: Best and worst case scenario on Bakklandet…………………………………….……..…p. 18 Table 2: Short-, mid-, and long-term development…………………………………………….…...p. 19 Table 3: Timeline over when measures should be implemented…………………………..………..p. 20 Table 4: Relevant stakeholders, institutions and organizations……….……….………………….…p. 24 Table 5: Construction and maintenance costs over a fifty year period…………………………..…p. 32

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1. Introduction As an introduction to this assignment, the following citation was presented: Like many cities around the world, Trondheim faces a range of risks and threats. At times of unexpected and unprecedented crises, institutions, organizations, and communities have to organize themselves and act in order to restore vital services and to enable a rapid return to some kind of normalcy after a disruption. Rather than viewing uncertainty as a catastrophe, crises can be seen as opportunities that can lead to visions that are radical and transformative.

Against this background, we are going to present a contingency plan on a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods in Trondheim. More precisely, we are going to have a look at how Trondheim, as a very low-density city prone to floods caused by the sea level rise, could handle that phenomenon in the future. The starting assumption is that Trondheim is a municipality, which has substantial resources and a disaster management authority. To narrow the focus area, we have decided to look more closely into Bakklandet – a district in Trondheim close to the city center. First, we are going to present a short analysis of the context. Then we investigate some theory aspects before a methodology part, and two literature case studies follow. After the findings from these initial phases are presented, a contingency plan is proposed that could help Bakklandet cope with future sea level rise. The paper ends with a discussion and a conclusion.

2. Analysis of the context

Figure 1: Bakklandet. Sorce backgroundmap: Norgeskart (2019).

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Bakklandet is a district in Trondheim close to the city center (see figure 1). Trondheim is, as viewed in this assignment, a low-density city. Bakklandet lies close to the river Nidelva, which runs through most of the city. The area is flat, yet lays under a high slope and stretches over approximately one kilometer, and lies between one and ten meters above sea level (Norgeskart, 2019). Most of the buildings in the district are made of wood (Rosvold, 2018). The oldest buildings date back to the 18th century, whilst most of the buildings were built in the first part of the 19th century (Trondheim kommune, 2013). Today, there are approximately a thousand people living in this area (Statistisk sentralbyrå [SSB], 2019a; 2019b). Bakklandet is considered a popular place for residents, students and tourists in Trondheim (Trøndelag, 2019).

Most of the residents are people with relatively high socioeconomic status (Bakklandet, 2019).

Since the 1970s, Bakklandet has been considered as a valuable cultural heritage by the municipality (Stugu, 1997), thus many of the houses have strict regulations regarding how the buildings should look like, both from the outside and from the inside (Trondheim kommune,2019a).

Figure 2: Water edge of Bakklandet. Image: Authors.

Figure 3: Street of Bakklandet. Image: Authors.

Regarding the stakeholders, institutions and organizations, there are several, both public and private that are dealing with disruptions in Bakklandet. The municipality is perhaps the most influential, since they decide and implement land use plans, with subsequent regulations. As mentioned before, the municipality is regarded as one having substantial resources and a disaster management authority. Another important stakeholder are the residents living in the area. In addition to having the opportunity to influence the municipal plans, they also have a local resident association called “Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association”.

Further, landowners and the restaurant-, shop- and café owners have the potential to influence the area, as well as law governors at the national and county level. When it comes to flood Page 6 of 36

prevention and mitigation, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate [NVE] are a central public stakeholder.

3. Theory In this part we are shortly going to introduce and inspect ideas we grapple with in the assignment. For us, it is crucial to understand the phenomena and ideas of both sea level rise and quick clay danger to create an informed and truthful solution to the problem.

3.1. Sea level rise Sea level rise is an ongoing phenomenon caused by global warming, primarily by two of its elements: Melting of the ice sheets and glaciers, which raises the height of the global oceans` waters, and the expansion of those waters themselves as they warm up. Current state of the sea level rise is predicted for a 3.3 millimeters per year globally as measured in November 2018 via Satellite sea level observations done by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA, 2018). Those numbers were translated by NVE, and in this article serve as a mapping tool for predicting, planning and designing flood and sea level rise defenses.

Global warming is predicted to change the precipitation schemes as well. As high precipitation is a frequent reason for floods, especially on the rivers, it is important to take those changes into planning scenarios. In the future the precipitation is predicted to be reaching more extreme values, being lesser in summer and higher than usual in winters. This phenomenon can cause an unexpected and never before experienced level of floods on Bakklandet, thus drainage system must be upgraded accordingly to the uncertainty (NASA, 2018).

3.2. Quick clay danger Large parts of Bakklandet is identified as areas of high and medium quick clay danger. This phenomenon, mostly existing in Norway, Sweden and Finland, has a history in the case city of Trondheim, when in April 1978 one could see “dwellings and farmhouses float along the clay “river” before being demolished by the enormous masses and forces” (Norway`s Geotechnological Institute, 2019, section 4). Quick clay ground is in danger of creating a disastrous event when over pressured, then activating itself over larger areas and creating a “river” of ground, buildings and infrastructure that has once been on top of the clay layer. This could be an extremely dangerous event. Consequently, this must be cautiously considered when Page 7 of 36

planning and building new developments in endangered areas (Norway`s Geotechnological Institute, 2019).

4. Methodology To collect the information needed, we have used various methods. First and foremost, we have used the internet to find facts about Trondheim, Bakklandet, sea level rise, quick clay, as well as the different stakeholders involved in the development regarding potential flood risk due to sea level rise. In addition, we conducted a short questionnaire, where we asked some of the residents of Bakklandet the following three questions: 1. Do you have any knowledge about how sea level rise will affect Bakklandet in the future?

2. Do you take the future sea level rise into consideration when you plan your future?

3. Are you worried about the future sea level rise on Bakklandet?

On all the questions the respondents had the choice between answering “yes” or “no”. They also had the opportunity to add a comment to the questions if they wanted to elaborate on the answer. To get in contact with potential respondents, the questionnaire was first sent to the administration of the official Facebook-page of Bakklandet. When we got permission from the administration, we posted the questionnaire on the Facebook-page. The questions were translated into Norwegian to make them more understandable for the respondents. In total we got 19 respondents on the survey. Even though this is not an extremely high response rate, we still got an impression of how some of the residents on Bakklandet view the future sea level rise in the area.

5. Literature case studies Considering that our case is about a low-density place in Trondheim which is prone to floods caused due to sea level rise, and that the municipality has substantial resources and a disaster management authority, we have investigated two cases in two countries with similar situations to get a better understanding of how other countries in similar scenarios equip themselves for urban flooding. The first case is from the Netherlands, and the second case is from Japan. We will use best practices from these cases as inspiration for our own contingency plan for Bakklandet.

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5.1. Case 1 – The Netherlands The Netherlands is a relatively flat and low-lying country. A large part of the country lies underneath the sea level. This creates major challenges in terms of floods and sea level rise (Langevik-Johannesen & Heie, 2018). On the other hand, the Netherlands has relatively many resources in terms of money as well as a disaster management authority. Tens of billions of euros have been spent the last forty years on flood protection, as well as one billion euros every year to maintain storm surge barriers. I addition, they have a national flood plan as well as a political and legal system that is united around dealing with flood issues. Many different actors, both private and public, are working together to form the national flood policy (Koshy, 2019).

As a result of this, several different measures have been implemented to safeguard the country against flooding. Dikes, dunes, dams, blue-green networks, amphibious housing and an extensive delta system called “Deltawerken”, has for example been constructed along the coast to provide multi-layer and multi-scalar protection to the land and population of the Netherlands (Koshy, 2019; Langvik-Johannesen & Heie, 2018). The Delta Works form the largest flood protection system in the world and consists of thirteen sections (see figure 4). It incorporates, among others things, a storm surge barrier, dams, dikes and sluice gates (Holland, 2019). The construction of the Delta Works started after a major flood event in 1953, where nearly 2000 people lost their lives (Deltaweken 2019). The idea was to shorten the amount of coastline exposed to the sea. To accomplish this, new and innovative technology was implemented (Zeeland, 2019).

Figure 4: The Delta Works. Source: Deltawerken (2019).

Figure 5: Concepts for flood prevention.

Source: Koshy (2019, p. 21).

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In the Netherlands, several actions where identified that could be taken before a crisis happened, to improve response.

For

example,

they

identified the location for flood barriers, they negotiated with farmers and

landowners

to

implement

measures for flood protection, they negotiated

fund

allocation

and

investment for flood protection, they Figure 6: A long term holistic perspective of a river bypass in Lent, near Nijmegen. Source: Koshy (2019, p. 27).

designed, implemented and managed flood barriers, as well as identified urban planning and design firms specialized

in

integrated

flood

management. Structures to resist flooding can have severe ecological and spatial impacts. In the National Water Plan in the Netherlands, spatial quality

is

embedded

in

flood

protection policies. Figure 5 shows some concepts for flood prevention Figure 7: Local solution to handle flood periods. Source: Koshy (2019, p. 28).

which also take into consideration spatial quality. Figure 6 shows a longterm holistic perspective of a river bypass in Lent, near Nijmegen.

Figure 7 and 8 on the other hand, shows more local solutions to handle flood periods in the Netherlands (Koshy, 2019).

In sum, water management is of great national

importance

to

the

Netherlands. However, this does not Figure 8: Amphibious housing based in Dordrecht, the Netherlands. Source: Koshy (2019, p. 29).

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mean that nothing could be improved in the future, for example when it comes to water awareness among the Dutch: The OECD has found in its report that water management is of national importance to The Netherlands, but that the Dutch are not always aware of this, particularly because the country is already effectively protected against floods. The OECD notes a lack of water awareness.

People are not always aware of everything that needs to be done to keep the country dry an livable, nor are they aware of the flood risk. They also know very little about evacuation options (Koshy, 2019, p. 39).

5.2. Case 2 – Tokyo, Japan In Japan, about 49% of the population and 75% of real property are on flood plains, and flooding is currently one of the most serious natural hazards faced by the country. Even though Japan has been highly susceptible to flooding, the country has had a disaster management program since the 1950s. With climate change, typhoons and flood disasters have recently been hard to predict (Zhai and Ikeda, 2008).

Greater Tokyo has invested billions of dollars into flood preparation and, over the last several centuries, developed some of the most extraordinary green and grey infrastructure anywhere in the world.

The

concept

of

“disaster

prevention parks” was introduced in Tokyo

to

provide

gathering

and

mitigation space for the citizens during the time of any disaster (see figure 9).

Figure 9: Layout of Disaster prevention park in Tokyo.

Source: Ktr.mlit.go.jp (2019).

Under

the

Ministry

of

Land,

Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism,

these parks serve as a base for large rescue which include cooking facilities, emergency toilets, solar power light, roads that can accommodate large emergency vehicles and landing pads for helicopters (EDG & Associates, LLC, 2019). The park, situated in front of a waterfront, is also a major attraction for tourists. During standard operating hours, relevant organizations collaborate and perform exchanges of disaster-related information as well as a variety of simulations, training, and other activities in order to prepare for future disasters (Ktr.mlit.go.jp,

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2019). Disaster prevention park acts as a central focus for disaster mitigation and preparedness activities.

Another example is a series of underground tunnels called the ‘Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel’ or simply ‘Ryu-Q-Can’ which can store excess rainwater (see figure 10). Located 50m underground of Kasukabe, a city about 45km north of Tokyo, these tunnels discharge into the Edo River.

Completed in 2006, the tunnel series cost USD 2 billion. The assets and lives saved from the floods in 2014 justified such significant investments (Global Figure 10: Metropolitan Area Outer

Water Forum (2019).

Underground Discharge Channel in Tokyo.

Source: Global Water Fourm (2019).

6. Findings 6.1. Documented risk, threats and uncertainties

Figure 11: Expected major flood events in 2050 (left) and 2100 (right). Source: Trondheim kommune, (2019b).

Trondheim municipality has developed a digital map showing areas affected by flood hazards and future sea level rise. The map is available for everyone and has a lot of information on Page 12 of 36

future sea level rise (Trondheim kommune, 2019b). Figure 11 shows expected major flood events in 2050 and 2100 respectively. As is evident from the maps, several areas of Bakklandet are expected to be affected by the sea level rise in the years to come. Especially the buildings located near Nidelva, which also lie lowest in the terrain, are predicted to be affected.

Significantly more buildings are affected in the year 2100 than in the year 2050. The floods are expected to cause a considerable amount of damage in the latter case.

However, the expected average sea level rise in the same years are, of course, of a smaller scale, as shown in figure 12. In other words, it is the expected major flood events that are thought to be the most influencing on Bakklandet in the future. Although some buildings in Bakklandet are affected when it comes to the future average sea level rise, the average sea level rise in Trondheim is expected to be relatively small and to not pose a major risk alone (Trondheim kommune, 2019c).

Figure 12: Average sea level rise in 2050 (left) and 2100 (right). Source: Trondheim kommune (2019b).

Trondheim municipality has made regulations in the municipal plan for large parts of Bakklandet when it comes to future sea level rise. Figure 13 shows the regulated area. The regulated area was calculated as a function of the expected maximum storm surge in 2100 with 1000-year repeated interval, added 1,2-meter wave impact. This led to a delineation at 4,87

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meters. Zoning plans and measures in areas affected by the regulations regarding sea level rise, must accomplish the following regulations: § 41.1 Zoning plans and measures after the Planning and Building Act § 20-1 that affect areas with regulations for sea level rise, should be planned and designed so that sufficient safety is achieved. The need for risk reducing measures should always be considered. For zoning plans that affect areas with regulations for sea level rise, risk and vulnerability analysis shall be carried out (Our translation, Trondheim kommune, 2019c, section 9).

Figure 13: Regulated area regarding sea level rise and storm surge. Source: Trondheim kommune (2019b).

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An important phenomena, that could be affected in the future due to rising sea level, are landslide. Large part of Bakklandet is built on the base of quick clay, which makes the ground conditions somewhat unstable, especially towards increasing levels of water. Figure 14 shows an overview of areas prone to quick clay landslides. As is evident from the map, a lot of the building structures lie within areas that are either categorized as having medium or high hazard degree when it comes to quick clay landslides. A large part of this area is also within the plots that are expected to be affected by the sea level rise in the future.

Figure 14: Areas prone to quick clay landslides. Source: Trondheim kommune (2019b).

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Based on the flood maps and flood predictions, Trondheim municipality has listed up some examples of possible measures that could reduce damage caused by flood hazards and sea level rise. Relevant measures to achieve this can, according to the municipality, be to build waterproof basements, shape the terrain to secure the water’s pathway, avoid placing descents to basements or windows where water can be expected to arrive, as well as to design areas and buildings so that they can withstand flood periods (Trondheim kommune, 2019c).

6.2. Answers from the questionnaire The following figures show how residents of Bakklandet answered the different questions we asked them about future sea level rise at Bakklandet:

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Figure 15: Results from the google questionnaire prepared by the team. Source: Authors.

As shown by the answers, the large majority of people (89,5%) answering the questionnaire do not have any knowledge about how sea level rise will affect Bakklandet in the future. The same exact number of participants neither take into consideration the future sea level rise when they plan their future. Still, the majority (52,6%) have answered “yes” on the question that considered if they were worried about future sea level rise on Bakklandet. This might indicate that information regarding sea level rise needs to be more accessible for the people living in the area. At least if a contingency plan, as the one suggested in this assignment, is going to be implemented, it is important that the resident have good knowledge about how Bakklandet might develop in the years to come.

7. Contingency plan 7.1. Hypothetical scenario A scenario often provides a basis for planning. It can be useful for generating consensus on the nature of a potential crises (Koshy, 2019).

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Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative, plausible, and data-rich accounts of how relevant external forces such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities (GrantSpace, 2019). Scenario planning enables to prepare for various situations of different probabilities. A basic question of ‘what if?’ is used to determine the best and the worst-case scenarios. Potential challenges and probable situations help planners to gauge and identify various possibilities. We used this process of forecasting to address potential risks for disaster mitigation. To understand the spectrum of our case hypothesis, we followed the following steps to determine two polarized scenarios for indicators: 1. Identify the key indicators: Including all the factors that contribute to our case and which are likely to change in the span of a decade.

2. Determine possible outcomes: Identifying potential impacts in possible future environments. Both best and worst-case scenarios helped cover the polarized ends of the spectrum.

3. Develop and analyse scenarios:

Table 1: Best and worse-case scenario on Bakklandet.

Our team covered possible social, economic and structural indicators and chose the ones best suited for our case. This further formed the basis of the response strategy.

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7.2. Response strategy

A response strategy in a contingency plan anchors the other elements in the plan. It points out appropriate humanitarian responses (Koshy, 2019).

Sea level rise is a slow-onset process. However, its effects can be felt in various degrees. Urban flooding, which is one of the most devastating impacts of sea level rise, is the main focus for disaster implications for our case. To understand and analyze the effects of sea level in a multidimensional way, we set a time frame of 75 years and divided our response strategies in short, mid- and long term. This ensures a multi layered and a multi scalar approach to disaster mitigation, thus providing protection with all aspects of sea level rise.

Table 2: Short-, mid-, and long-term development.

For the next 5-year term, or the immediate plan of action, includes raising awareness through graphic symbols and informative boards. This term plan basically covers emergency management, predictions and early warning systems. The mid-term plan focuses on protection of spatial and environmental surroundings. Building codes, retrofitting and rebuilding are taken into consideration in this span of time. The heritage of Bakklandet and the intangible preservations of the neighborhood are also considered. Collaborative governance and citizen Page 19 of 36

participation are also considered as an essential step for disaster mitigation in this time frame.

A long-term plan, that spans 75 years, is a crucial step in ensuring a sustainable mitigation plan.

We would be exploring public spaces and flood-proof building typologies as a prototype for the neighborhood as a long-term project.

Having a time frame lets the disaster mitigation and preparedness plan to update and selfimprove, as per requirements. This flexibility ensures that the contingency plan is robust in the face of a disaster. Judicial use of resources for various operations set during each time frame also ensure a sustainable and a clear plan.

7.3. Implementation plan

The implementation plan includes how responses will be implemented and structured logistically and programmatically (Koshy, 2019).

In Bakklandet, we want to implement multi-scalar flood protection. The following chart shows a time frame of when different flood-protection measures will be implemented, and how long the implantation is expected to take:

Table 3: Timeline over when measures should be implemented.

As the time chart shows, we will start to inform the public and the residents living in Bakklandet already in 2020. On an information board that will be established on Bakklandstorget, which Page 20 of 36

is a relatively central place in Bakklandet, where typically both tourists and residents reside, it will be giving continuous information about the sea level rise, in addition to what and when subsequent measures will be implemented. It will also be giving continuous information to Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association, which holds regular meetings with the residents. Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association also has a Facebook-page, which can be used to spread information. Together with occasional campaigns, this will hopefully raise awareness and prepare people for future changes in the area.

In 2030, we want to start building a more robust blue-green structure on Bakklandet. This will include the preparation of parks, parking spaces and local water management structures that will help delay and digest excess water from the sea. Currently there are relatively few bluegreen structures on Bakklandet. Even though there is a park and a parking space near Bakklandstorget, more areas could be transformed into blue-green areas. We want more bluegreen areas to be built in a relatively short time period. Within ten years, between 2030 and 2040, we want to complete the new blue-green structure on Bakklandet. When it comes to the waterproof basements, we have also set the time period to obtain this to the years between 2030 and 2040.

Water channels in the streets of Bakklandet that can collect excess water from the streets will be built over a five-year period between 2040 and 2045. By this time Bakklandet will be more affected by the sea level rise, and thus need more efficient measures to deal with it. Also, in 2040 we want to make some of the existing housing on Bakklandet amphibious. This will first and foremost apply to the settlement closest to the river. We assume that this will take approximately ten years to complete and make Bakklandet even more prepared for future expected and unexpected effects of the sea level rise. Finally, we want to build a wooden pier barrier to the river. We expect that it will take some years before this is necessary, but to be on the safe side, we want to build it between 2045 and 2050. This barrier, and all of the other measures we have presented here, will of course need maintenance over the years. This means that the years presented in table 3, which only includes the implementation phase, does not take into consideration that maintenance is a continuous process that have a much longer timeframe than the years shown here.

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7.4. Operational support plan The operational support plan identifies human resources, information and communications technology, administration, security and other needs in a response (Koshy, 2019).

7.4.1. Stakeholders, institutions and organizations As mentioned initially, there are several public and private stakeholders, institutions and organizations that are dealing with disruptions on Bakklandet. The following overview presents three different stakeholders, institutions and organizations which we consider especially relevant, and how they could prepare, respond, adapt and transform to disruptions regarding future sea level rise. We will also mention a few other additional stakeholders, institutions and organizations relevant in the case.

7.4.1.1. Trondheim municipality Trondheim municipality, like other municipalities in Norway, has an overarching responsibility to develop and plan how the land should be used within the municipality’s borders.

Involvement of the local population in the process of developing and designing the municipal plan is at the same time a central element in Norwegian planning context (Planning and Building Act, 2008). In other words, the residents of Bakklandet have the possibility to contribute to how Bakklandet will develop in the years to come, through participation in the local planning processes.

As the municipality has the overarching responsibility of the land use, it also has a central role in the preparation for rising sea level and floods on Bakklandet. By implementing regulations that concern the land- and building structure, the municipality has the possibility to prepare for the response, adaption and/or transformation of the area to deal with future hazards. The regulations from the municipality first and foremost address the physical structure of the area.

Nevertheless, the municipality can also have an important administrative and informative role, both before an emergency situation happens, and during an emergency situation. The municipality can act as a unifying and coordination actor for stakeholders like the police, the Norwegian Red Cross and/or the residents. By using information and communication technology, the municipality can spread information to relevant actors regarding the flooding Page 22 of 36

situation in the area. This can for instance be through the municipality’s home-page, Facebookpage, in newspapers, trough TV, or more directly by contacting the relevant actors themselves.

As the starting assumption of this assignment is that the municipality has substantial resources and a disaster management authority, Trondheim municipality has a relatively large opportunity to prepare and respond to future sea level rise on Bakklandet.

7.4.1.2. NVE The maps that show the expected sea level rise on Bakklandet, and that are used by the municipality, are developed and prepared by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate [NVE]. NVE has the responsibility to manage the Norwegian water- and energy resources (Rosvold, 2018b). They have a central role in the preparation against, and the handling of, flood hazards and accidents. NVE is also responsible for the management of landslide prevention at the national level. An important element for NVE to achieve this, is to examine and monitor the water resources in Norway, and to inform and guide the national-, regional- and local authorities about possible flood hazards. Research work is also an important task for NVE, as the directorate has the overarching responsibility for hydrology in Norway (NVE, 2019). Consequently, NVE is an important stakeholder in terms of giving initial information about contiditions on Bakklandet, and as a consultant in eventual research that comes with implementing the contingency plan on Bakklandet. NVE can also be a relevant actor in case of an emergency situation, by examining and motoring the physical conditions at Bakklandet, and through that giving updated information that can be used as a basis for decisions, for instance by the municipality.

7.4.1.3. Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association was founded in 1971. At this time, the building structure in the area was very poor and the municipality was planning to demolish large parts of the area to build a new highway along Nidelva. To prevent this from happening, and to improve the building conditions in the area, the local association was founded (Bull & Næss, 1985). The resistance against the municipality’s plans in the 1970s led to a relatively strong engagement amongst the residents that has more or less persisted until today (Fossdal, 2018). Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association is a platform where the residents can meet and discuss the further development of the area. In addition to having regular meetings, a Facebook-group for the association has also been created in recent years (Facebook, 2019a). There are also an additional Facebook-group (Facebook, 2019b) and a Page 23 of 36

home-page for Bakklandet (Bakklandet, 2019), where people who are not living in the area can follow and discuss the development of Bakklandet.

Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association can be a central organization in the preparation, response, adaption and/or transformation of Bakklandet when it comes to future sea level rise and floods. Since they are a meeting point for the residents, both through regular meetings and over the internet, this can be a platform where the residents get information, discuss and prepare themselves and the area for the disruptions that will come when the sea level rises.

7.4.1.4. Other relevant stakeholders, institutions and organizations There are also other stakeholders, institutions and organizations that are relevant in our case.

The following summary gives an overview of the ones we consider most relevant, as well as showing which level they, and the previously mentioned stakeholders, are on in the Norwegian planning context.

Level

Stakeholder, institution or organization

Public stakeholders at the national level

- The Ministry of Transport and Communications [SD] - The Ministry of Justice and Public Security [JD] - The Ministry of Local Government and Modernization [KMD] - The Ministry of Climate and Environment [KLD]

These stakeholders contribute with overreaching information, goals, decisions, research, financial resources, legislations and/or guidelines. The police is most relevant as a stakeholder in case of an emergency situation.

- The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate [NVE] - The Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency [DSB] - The Directorate for Building Quality [DIBK] - The Norwegian Directorate for Cultural Heritage - The Norwegian Public Roads Administration - Geological Survey of Norway [NGU] - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [MET] - Research Institutions - The Police

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Public stakeholders at the county level

- The County Governor in Trøndelag - Trøndelag county

The County Governor is the states’s representative in the county and is responsible for following up goals, decisions and guidelines from the government. The County Governor is also an important link between the central authorities and the municipality (Fylkesmannen, 2019).

Trøndelag county is the regional elected administration level in Norway.

Primary tasks include, among other things, planning which concerns transportation and environment (Fylkesmannen i Nordland, 2019).

Public stakeholders at the municipality level The municipality is the lowest administrative level in Norway.

- Trondheim municipality - The Cultural Heritage Management Office in Trondheim municipality

The Cultural Heritage Management Office in Trondheim is the municipality’s professional adviser when it comes to cultural heritage protection (Trondheim kommune, 2019a).

Private stakeholders The Norwegian Red Cross and agreements with hotels in the city center is most relevant in case of an emergency situation. Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association, residents, landowners and restaurant-, shop- and café oweners, has an important role regarding information, as well as to implement regulations from the municipality.

- Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken resident association - Residents, landowners and private property developers - The Norwegian Red Cross - Hotels in the city center that can accommodate residents in case of an evacuation.

- Restaurant-, shop- and café owners.

Table 4: Relevant stakeholders, institutions and organizations (The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the National Rail Administration & the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, 2013, p. 6).

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7.5. Preparedness plan

The preparedness plan identifies actions that can be taken before a crises happen to improve the response. It is almost always beneficial to focus on preparedness actions (Koshy, 2019).

Preparedness is defined by DHS/FEMA as "a continuous cycle of planning, organizing, training, equipping, exercising, evaluating, and taking corrective action in an effort to ensure effective coordination during incident response” (FEMA, 2019, section 1). Bakklandet has a relatively strong community sense with already existing citizen communities. For flood preparedness in such a neighbourhood, it is essential for the communities to be independent and maintain a relation with the municipality. A communication network between the public and the government is highly essential to exercise the mitigation strategies. Regular dialogue, citizen representation and a communication network can prove beneficial for the same reason.

The analysis of the stakeholders has pointed out the importance of the community of Bakklandet. That community has a history of working together, maintains a coworking relationship with each other and is seemingly invested in preserving its` surroundings` cultural values. Thus, as one of the goals of this exercise we set, is to try to use the existing strong community resource and explore the possibilities of the community participation and power in a given sea level rise scenario.

Due to the historically established and treasured character of Bakklandet, the possible implementations range is shortened. The most important aspect to avoid is visual changes as the area is already modernized “underneath”, meaning it is part of a modern Trondheim urban system. The other reason for such state is the cultural heritage and sort of a hallmark value of visible architecture of Bakklandet and the city of Trondheim, as the place is one of the most crowded with tourists in Trondheim. That is why the solutions presented in all phases of the contingency plan are carefully selected in accordance to that, as maintaining the visual appearance of Bakklandet and its` core elements was one of the design goals.

In our design, we assumed certain levels of sea level rise and expected flood predictions based on data from Trondheim municipality shown in figure 11 and 12 (Trondheim kommune, Page 26 of 36

2019b). In figure 16 we predict the effect of them on Bakklandet`s Nidelva river facade. The red lines represent expected major flood events, the blue ones, average expected sea-level rise with the current, highest level of the river.

Figure 16: Height of average expected sea-level rise and expected major flood events in 2050 and 2100 on Bakklandet`s Nidelva river facade. Source: Authors.

In the final, long term of our plan, due to a wealthy and involved government as well as residents of the area, we chose to create the worst-case scenario as the one planned for, which with substantial resources we have an opportunity to tackle. As the worst-case scenario, we understand the predictions for the year 2100 sea level rise and floods. Firstly, the average sea level rise for the year 2100 is predicted to be affecting some of the land on Bakklandet. Based on the map presented in figure 12, we estimate a sea level rise of 2 meters in 2100, as the safe capacity, in that time frame. As visible on figure 12, only a small part of Bakklandet would be covered of Nidelva in that scenario, yet that land happens to be covered with constructions of a bridge and houses lifted on poles above the land level. Apart from lifted buildings, few openings in the river`s buildings` facade are endangered according to the map. Although, through looking at the urban facade of the river and piers we point out the main dangers of sea level rise.

First, the foundation and poles, as well as the soil and the river bottom that the buildings connected to the river are built on, have to be checked for sustaining longer periods of river Page 27 of 36

flow and the pressure of water 2 meters higher than the current state. Second in line of being endangered by rising river level, are the materials that the facades are built of. Preserving the materials, which would get covered by a semi-permanent (due to change of the water level during day and year timeframes) layer of water, is an intangible task, and a one of no value if the materials will eventually be covered. Thus, the design goal is to prevent the water from reaching the facade, which would mean creating a barrier between the river and the facade high enough to battle river level rise. This is done through creating a wooden pier, that holds or enhances the cultural heritage of Bakklandet, which would be used either as public or semiprivate space for inhabitants, thus extending space of Bakklandet itself. The pier would be extending a few meters into Nidelva and strengthening the constructions of the old buildings with its` own, standing on a new line of wooden poles (see figure 17).

Figure 17: Pier design shown on the river facade, before and after adding the pier.

Source: Authors.

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Figure 18: Street section of Bakklandet, before and after adding the water channel system. Source: Authors.

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Figure 19: Example of open green space design on Bakklandet (before and after). Source: Authors.

Through the analysis of various flood mitigation examples, focusing on cases from the Netherlands and Japan, as well as an analysis of Bakklandet`s contexts, we specified interventions that suit our case. Specific implications of the importance of maintaining the visual style of Bakklandet`s architecture, considerably lower the spectrum of available choices of anti-flood interventions. In addition to that, the sole structure itself, even today, battles with unsure ground foundations, being built, in large part, on top of areas diagnosed with high and medium levels of quick-clay danger (Trondheim kommune, 2019b). As explained in the theory part before, quick clay danger is correlated with a physical stress on the clay layer underneath Page 30 of 36

housing and infrastructure (Norway`s Geotechnological Institute, 2019). Nevertheless, up to date, Bakklandet is covered with a layer of light, yet closely connected building structures and street infrastructure.

As a flood mitigation design, working with our own set goals, mainly of keeping the visual heritage as true as possible and extending the green spaces, we have come up with some solutions. First is an infrastructure of a water channel under the main street of Bakklandet, which, in case of flood, would take away additional water and pump it to prepared water tanks elsewhere in the city. As the building of this would require taking out the pavement, we use this to propose a slightly new shape of the street (as shown in figure 18), to help with accumulating the water into the pipes and renew the pavements in an authentic Bakklandet style. Second is using already existing open spaces as blue-green water retention reservoirs, providing them with deep, water retaining greenery and pond-like space that would fill out first as the water gets to Bakklandet (visible in figure 19). With those additions, it is extremely important to check the planned additional infrastructure, with geotechnical specialists, due to quick clay danger.

7.6. Budget

In the budget the cost of preparedness and response activities are determined (Koshy, 2019).

The preparation for future sea level rise on Bakklandet in line with the suggestions made in this assignment, requires a lot of monetary resources. As the starting assumption of our assignment is that Trondheim is a municipality which has substantial resources, which is also more or less in line with the actual situation in the municipality and Norway today, we have used the Norwegian state budget for 2019 as a starting point for calculating a budget. In the state budget the government has decided to grant 349 million NOK to the prevention and management of flood- and landslide damage in 2019. 13 million NOK has been granted to cope with stormwater management in the same year (Statsbudsjettet, 2019). This money will of course be distributed throughout the country. Consequently, Trondheim and Bakklandet will only get parts of this sum. We still expect that the state will contribute with large parts of the Page 31 of 36

financial resources required to implement the contingency plan, but also the municipality and possibly also private property developers and the residents. Table 5 shows the estimated costs of the constructions, as well as the maintenance costs over a fifty-year period, of the different measures we want to implement on Bakklandet.

Measures

Construction costs

50 years maintenance costs

Information board and campaigns

1 million NOK

5 million NOK

Blue-green structure

20 million NOK

20 million NOK

Waterproof basements

100 million NOK

20 million NOK

Water channels

50 million NOK

10 million NOK

Amphibious housing

200 million NOK

30 million NOK

Water barriers

50 million NOK

20 million NOK

Table 5: Construction and maintenance costs over a fifty-year period.

8. Discussion One of the fixed assumptions of this assignment were that Trondheim is a municipality with substantial resources and has a disaster management authority. Even though it for obvious reasons has its` superlatives, it is also important to see both sides of the coin and the nuances of this particular scenario. While working on the assignment we have understood the strength that existing communities can have and wanted to use that asset in our work, yet in the final proposition, there is a big reliance on the government (even if governmental help is achieved through collective community effort) and its` resources, as well as external actors, such as specialists. This is due to the seemingly easier nature of fixing problems with high-price solutions instead of community involvement and action. Such planning exercise is a valuable lesson, not only in contingency planning, but also in valuing and using existing resources when possible, or at least in being aware of the importance of learning how to work with existing resources and assets in case the scenario is not as favorable.

9. Conclusion In this assignment we have analyzed and forecasted the future threats of sea level rise on Bakklandet. Based on hypothesis and ground realities of the present state of the district, an Page 32 of 36

urban planning/design intervention has been explored. An overarching contingency plan for the next 75 years with a hypothetical scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and a budget has been laid down as a proposal.

Hopefully this plan will contribute to a safer future for Bakklandet, its residents and visitors, and help see the opportunities that can lie in a development focused on future sea level rise.

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