Urban Contingency - 2019 - Contingency Plan

Norwegian University of Science and Technology AAR5220- Urban Contingency Planning and Practice

G2- GROUP ASSIGNMENT REPORT SPRING 2019

CONTINGENCY PLAN: TRONDHEIM

Image: Vegard Eggen

Linnéa Margareta Bergmark Mouna Bourakkadi Hugo Martínez Yuna Prajapati

AAR5220- Urban Contingency Planning and Practice

Table of Contents Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.

Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1 Establishing a framework ......................................................................................... 5

2. Understanding the current conditions .................................................................................... 7 2.1 Background on Trondheim .............................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 Weather conditions and flood risks in Trondheim .................................................... 7 2.1.2 Disaster history in Trondheim ............................................................................... 10 2.2 Chosen scenario for Contingency plan ........................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Why Brattøra? ......................................................................................................... 12 3. Identifying the risks ............................................................................................................. 13 4. Flood impact analysis .......................................................................................................... 14 5. Stakeholders ......................................................................................................................... 16 6. Developing a response strategy ........................................................................................... 21 6.1 Response strategy........................................................................................................... 22 7. Implementation plan ............................................................................................................ 24 8. Operational support plan ...................................................................................................... 26 9. Preparedness and Recovery plan ......................................................................................... 27 10. Funding of the plan (Budget) ............................................................................................. 29 11. Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................................. 30 References ............................................................................................................................ 32

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Six steps of evidence-based flood contingency planning (Ohara et. al., 2018) ......... 5 Figure 2: The ‘comprehensive approach’ to disaster management. Source: Queensland Government, Disaster Management........................................................................................... 6 Figure 3:The city of Trondheim and its location in Norway ..................................................... 7 Figure 4:. Temperature deviation from normal in Trøndelag from 1900 until today. Source (met.no ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 5:Precipitation in % from the normal in Trøndelag. Source (met.no) ............................ 8 Figure 6: Flood risk in Trondheim ............................................................................................. 8 Figure 7: Timeline of previous flood events in Trondheim ..................................................... 10 Figure 8: Area of Brattøra in Trondheim. Source: (ortofoto norgeibilder.no)......................... 11 Figure 9: Brattøra in 1936-1939. Source:NTNU .................................................................... 12 Figure 10: Showing the area of Brattøra and the paths that water will take in case when the sewage system has reached its full capacity. Source: NVE ..................................................... 13 Figure 11:Flood Impact Analysis categories ........................................................................... 14 Figure 12: The institutional stakeholders and their dynamic. .................................................. 18 Figure 13: Stakeholders and their incentive/impact................................................................. 19 Figure 14:. Stakeholder analysis based on willingness, expertise and power ......................... 20 Figure 15: Interchangeable knowledge in a collaborative response strategy .......................... 21 Figure 16:Response strategy main objectives .......................................................................... 22 Figure 17: Objective: Develop an Early .................................................................................. 24 Figure 18: Objective: Provide necessary evacuation ............................................................... 25 Figure 19: Objective: Evaluate safety level ............................................................................. 25

LIST OF TABLES Table 1:Level of impact by categories components ................................................................ 16

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1. Introduction Throughout the spring semester 2019, as students of the course Urban Contingency Planning and Practice, we have been presented with readings, lectures, case studies and workshops pertaining this rather new field to the traditional urban planning practice.

For many of us, concepts of planning, wicked problems and uncertainty have never been correlated, making of the classroom a fertile ground for the discussion of new ideas and approaches. With a substantial background from disaster relief studies and planning methods that included recognize that we need to shift from the predictable models to one that recognizes the layers of complexity within urban environments, we have undertaken our final assignment with new perspectives.

The present report contains the elements of a contingency plan for a given scenario in the city of Trondheim, Norway. It departs from establishing a framework to structure the analysis of the scenario, the area, its conditions and evaluate possible risks to establish actions. Then we proceed to the description of the contingency plan components, which are not only explained but also discussed, in order to include a constant reflection feedback at every stage.

We have developed the stages, considering that they aim to take on a participatory and inclusive approach, discussing possible ways to be applied. For this, we have included visual elements, emphasizing the process, which ultimately will define the outcomes.

It must be recognized how much of a learning process, more than the production of a final product, this assignment has been, and we hope to incorporate our learnings in our future practice. We would like to thank our professors for their constant and helpful guidance.

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1.2 Methodology 1.2.1 Establishing a framework As planners working from a contingency perspective, we must be aware that the structure, proposals and implementation of this type of plan, will be highly subjected to the particularities of the area. A more traditional procedure would provide a highly detailed plan prior to approval (Rondinelli et. al., 1989), and a strict linear implementation. However, recognizing the level of uncertainties and complexities that are involved in the practice, it’s not our goal to provide a prescriptive document, seen as a final product.

The outcomes would highly depend on the interactions between stakeholders, especially in the preparedness aspect of the plan. We have focused the approach of this paper on the processes that have led us to structure the different components of a contingency plan according to the first four elements of a six step model evidence-based flood contingency plan (Ohara et. al., 2019).

Each step can be extracted as a tool by communities, organizations or any stakeholder, in order to be translated into active participation. It’s our goal to extract elements of this report, which can be adaptable as tools for a more participative contingency planning practice.

Figure 1: Six steps of evidence-based flood contingency planning (Ohara et. al., 2018)

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We have approached the construction of the contingency plan through a four phase cycle that includes: Response, Recovery, Mitigation and Preparedness. We understand that a contingency plan is not only focused on reducing the risk, but also enhance capacities by looking at the events as opportunities to learn and improve.

“Preparing a contingency plan before disasters is essential to increase the capacity of personnel in charge of disaster response and enhance local resilience to disasters” (Ohara et. al., 2018).

These phases are embedded into the different parts of the plan to be described and detailed, and they don’t correspond to a linear model, being interdependent between each other. For example, some actions within the implementation phase could work both as mitigation and recovery measurements.

Figure 2: The ‘comprehensive approach’ to disaster management. Source: Queensland Government, Disaster Management

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2. Understanding the current conditions 2.1 Background on Trondheim The city of Trondheim is located by the Trondheim fjord centrally in Norway in the county of Trøndelag (FloodProbe, 2011). The city has a population 196.000 (as of Feb. 2019) and it’s the fourth biggest city, behind Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger (Statistisk sentralbyrå, 2019).

Figure 3: The city of Trondheim and its location in Norway

2.1.1 Weather conditions and flood risks in Trondheim Trondheim is a city that has a moderate climate that is caused by the Gulf Stream and it keeps the harbor free ice during the winter (FloodProbe, 2011). The Norwegian institute has since the 1900 been doing measures on the temperatures and rainfall and how it has developed since then. Figure 4 shows how the temperature deviation from normal in Trøndelag county from the 1900 until today (Meteorologisk Institutt, 2019).

Figure 4: Temperature deviation from normal in Trøndelag from 1900 until today. Source (met.no)

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The main trend in change of temperature is that is has become warmer during the last 100 years.

Figure 5 shows precipitation in % from the normal in Trøndelag from 1900 until today.

(Meteorologisk institutt, 2019)

Figure 5: Precipitation in % from the normal in Trøndelag. Source (met.no)

The trend in change in terms of change in rainfall during the last 100 years is that it has become much wetter and especially during the last 20 years (Meteorologisk institutt, 2019). Climate scenarios for Trøndelag county point to that there will be an increase in temperature around 2,5 °C and an annual increase in precipitation by the year of 2100. The predicted increase in temperature and rainfall in combination with periods of snow melting can therefore increase the risk for large runoff and flood events in Trondheim in the future. Because of this Trondheim is in the risk zone to be affected by floods in the future. In general Trondheim is especially vulnerable to flooding due to three sources of risks. (FloodProbe, 2011)

Figure 6: Flood risk in Trondheim

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1. Flooding from the Nidelva River The Nidelva River is Trondheim’s main body of (fresh) water, starting its journey some 40 km south of the city, in the western part of one of the biggest lakes of the sør-Trøndelag region, to finish its journey in the Trondheim fjord after crossing the length of the city from south to north. Hydropower plants were constructed throughout the river at six different locations to harness the energy produced by the presence of a very large catchment of around 3100 km3 of water. The large amount of water that circulates throughout the year has led authorities to take precautions to minimize and prevent smaller floods by in storing regulations that have reduced discharge by around 110m3/s in comparison with normal conditions. Nevertheless, those regulations wouldn’t be sufficient to prevent larger floods. (FloodProbe, 2011)

2. Flooding from the sea The Northern part of the city of Trondheim is mostly composed of seashores, therefore, strong storms in the Trondheim fjord and spring-tides could cause the sea level to rise up to 50 cm and that could lead to not only a flooding of those shores but also cause the level in the Nidelva to rise because of backflow. (FloodProbe, 2011)

3. Urban drainage system Trondheim drainage system relies on the old sewage system that was built before 1965. The drainage system as it stands today consists of 50 % of combined system, 40 % of separate and 10 % of non-active system. In many places in Trondheim the system is not made to handle a larger of amount of runoff, therefore, it could easily reach its full capacity, which could lead to flooding. (FloodProbe, 2011)

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2.1.2 Disaster history in Trondheim To learn from previous events can be an important and useful source of information, for understanding possible scenarios in terms of future floods in Trondheim. It can be helpful for identifying critical areas and also what types of risks that can be faced for inhabitants and all involved stakeholders in the events of floods. Especially with the knowledge of a changing climate and with that the increased risk for floods in the future.

Some previous cases of heavy rainfall and flood events in Trondheim and its consequences is summarized in figure 7. (FloodProbe, 2011)

Figure 7: Timeline of previous flood events in Trondheim

2.2 Chosen scenario for Contingency plan Our given scenario for making a contingency plan is that Trondheim is a very low-density city that is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. The municipality of Trondheim has a disaster management authority but has very limited funding. In the given scenario we have chosen the area of Brattøra in Trondheim as the study case for our contingency plan. Brattøra is an area located at the northernmost part of Trondheim, and centrally located due to its proximity to the city center and the Solsiden area (see figure 8.). Furthermore the area houses both the main train station and the main docking area for cruise ships making it a location of high importance.

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Figure 8: Area of Brattøra in Trondheim. Source: (ortofoto norgeibilder.no)

Historically Brattøra has been an important area for the development of the city as it is the intersection and meeting point between sea, river and land. It has mostly been used as an industrial area (see figure 9) but has evolved towards a center for businesses and transportation throughout the last 50 years. As of today the area is of great importance to the city since it is the location of the city’s main train and bus station, a great number of business offices and industrial buildings, a number of recreational areas like the Pirbadet and the Rockheim museum in addition to the biggest hotel in the city and Trondheim’s central police station. The area is also under study for future development and could be one of the most important urban development projects for the Trondheim region in recent years. The intention is to make Brattøra an integral part of the city by making it the central business and entertainment district and the main transportation hub for the Sor-Trondelag region (Brattørkaia, 2018).

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Figure 9: Brattøra in 1936-1939. Source: NTNU

2.2.1 Why Brattøra?

In a given scenario where Trondheim is a low density city, the car-driven suburban development and sprawling has been encouraged by planning policies. These same policies have created new ‘centers’ concentrating new functions, beyond the traditional role of the Midtbyen as historical, financial, administrative, services and entertainment center. Brattøra is becoming one of the most popular new development areas of Trondheim, with a variety of functions for the city.

As the city will continue sprawling Brattøra will keep developing as transportation, commercial and financial hub for the city. In the face of a hazard, these functions would be exposed to a disruption which potential financial and employment losses, as well as mobility along the region, that can also be translated into a disruption in commercial activities.

Brattøra´s privileged location in the north part of the city, overlooking the fjord, and close both to the sea and the river, has contributed to its popularity and desirability for development. For our contingency analysis, these factors also represent a potential vulnerability due to the impacts that heavy rainfall could have for the area.

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3. Identifying the risks As it was mentioned earlier, floods can be caused by several factors (DSB, 2016), and in the case of intense and heavy rainfalls during a short period of time, urban areas will be at high risk of flooding. With urban areas composed of large non-permeable surfaces such as paved areas, parking plots, dense buildings and streams laid down in pipes will be especially vulnerable (DSB, 2019).

In most urban and rural areas, there are drainage systems that take care of collecting surface water resulting from rain, melted snow and other origins. The problem that presents itself, is during heavy rains over an extremely short period of time. As the drainage system will easily reach its full capacity and the water overflowing and not finding any evacuation route, partially due to the aforementioned non-permeable surfaces, would lead to floods in the urban areas.

(DSB, 2016)

When identifying the major flood risks for Trondheim we assume that the most likely for our scenario would be caused by the urban drainage systems reaching their full capacity due to heavy rainfall. The main part of Trondheim’s sewage system is old and built before 1965. It consists of around 50 % combined system, 40 % separate and 10 % non-active system (FloodProbe, 2011). The sewage system in several places in Trondheim is not made for handling the increased peak in runoff caused by things such as climate change and urbanization.

The

increased

pressure

on

the

sewage

systems

can therefore lead to flooding during events heavy

such

as

rainfall.

(FloodProbe, 2011) Figure 10 shows the area for the chosen

scenario.

The maps shows Figure 10: Showing the area of Brattøra and the paths that water will take in case when the sewerage system has reached its full capacity. Source: NVE

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the ways that water could take in the events of heavy rainfall/ snow melting and the outcome would be that the urban drainage systems reach their full capacity.

4. Flood impact analysis The impact analysis can be defined as the process to identify possible consequences or problems that can be caused by the flood. Once identified the area and the sources of risks, a scale can be defined to understand how the flood can impact the people and the area. Within our approach, the impact analysis is an important stage to generate discussions among stakeholders, and an opportunity to establish common grounds as the initial stage of collaboration between authorities and society.

Figure 11:Flood Impact Analysis categories

For our scenario, we discussed key components around the characteristics of the area, such as safety, infrastructure, economy, transport, communication, livelihood, property, and tourism.

We have grouped the analysis into three categories (in no particular order) which will be further explained.

Safety: In analyzing risks, considering the exposure and vulnerability of people is taken as a first priority. Given the functions concentrated around it, the area welcomes a diverse group of floating population such as tourists, employees, pedestrians, drivers, and few residents.

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Infrastructure: In the selected scenario, the cause of the flood is the drainage overflow. The train, bus stations, and port facilities as well as their functions are exposed to either minor or major disruptions. These networks represent an important part of the transportation system of the region and so, are a very relevant part of any risk assessment. At the same time, a damage to the physical components of the networks, such as rail tracks, trackside points and signalling system, might take longer time to recover back to its normal functioning.

Economic: Brattørkaia is a business and financial center, and in future, as the development continues inwards, more business will be established in the area. Statistics tell us that facility floods are the fourth most common cause for an organization to abandon their premises (GregBartram, n.d).

During and after flooding, businesses facilities might be affected, stopping their activities. The physical damage to property might delay the resuming of functions, by also having to allocate resources for the inspection and repairing phases.

A major disruption can cause so much damage that activities might have to stop completely, resulting in the loss of employment, threatening the livelihoods of citizens. In this digital world, every information system is depended on electricity, and service interruption can crash the computers. The flood also have effect on tourism, as the restoration of the damaged infrastructure requires more time to function properly.

Similarly, the private properties, health services, education etc. will also take time. Also, the port cannot operate during the floods. This will have an impact on the whole of Trondheim regions, as people and goods cannot reach on time.

We have defined two levels of pluvial flood impact for a better the developing of possible impact scenarios and their characteristics:

Low: After intense rain, there is a small level of surface water flooding, minor overflowing of sewerage system, backup power supply might be needed, no major damage to infrastructure, with some minor disruption in the area’s activities. Slowing down of port activities due to sea level or tide movement. Some delays in train and bus services due to slow down of speeds, mostly in roads.

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High: After intense rain there’s a moderate to high level of surface water flooding, sewerage system has surpassed capacity, with moderate to high overflowing, disrupting activities in the area. Infrastructure problems such as power outages. Water running flowing into streets and structures, activities in port, train and bus station might have to stop, Consider evacuation of entire or critical areas.

Table 1 illustrates our methodology to identify the components that would be threatened or affected depending the impact level of the floods. This table can be expanded for as many categories as the planners, stakeholders or authorities identify in the previous stages. Also notice that the flooding impact levels can also be expanded with a ‘moderate’ category, or data, if flooding impact is defined by water level in meters.

It would be an interesting exercise to conduct this analysis through a workshop, having each stakeholder elaborate the table, and then compare them to build a joint collaboration risk analysis.

Flooding

Personal

Infrastructure/

Infrastructure/

Economic/

Economic/

Economic/

impact

Safety

Transportation

Power supply

Property

Tourism

Livelihood

damage

Low High

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Table 1: Level of impact by categories components

5. Stakeholders The Norwegian government has a well-established institutional response to most crisis situations based on founded on four principles: the principle of responsibility, the principle of equality, the principle of proximity and the principle of collaboration (Lillestol & Rykkja, 2016) ; all of which inform the way crisis are dealt with and managed within the Norwegian government. In the following, these actors will be defined by the roles they play in four different administrative capacities, which are coordination, regulation, analytical and delivery that are enacted pre, post and during a crisis.

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The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB): DSB as an agency was created in 2003, by the merger of two directorates that took care of civil protection and fire safety. The new agency had as a goal keeping track of risk and vulnerability in society and to prevent and prepare for adverse events (Office of the Auditor General of Norway 2015: 15) (Lillestol & Rykkja ,2016) and operates under the Ministry of justice and Civil Protection (JD). In practice, the agency has a coordination role between the different actors of the central government and the local one through the county governor during the crisis and providing national assistance through the National Guard. It is also tasked with making sure that national policies are enforced and that local authorities ( County governor and the municipality) are putting in place social and crisis management plans while giving guidelines and guidance for preparedness in addition to evaluating the shortcomings of current policies by conducting evaluations post disaster .

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) In the case of floods specifically another agency is called upon that has a more sectorial and specialized expertise to DSB’s general civil protection role, and it falls under the moniker of NVE, which stands for the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, which operates under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (OED). It’s main role during a crisis being coordination and providing guideline to help local authorities, and a considerable role in a preparedness phase as they are in charge of forecast and early warning systems and are part of the county’s emergency councils in crisis, with later role of evaluation to assess the occurring flood.

On a local level, the main actors at play are the county governor of Trøndelag, who plays a coordination role between the national agencies DSB and NVE and the local authorities including the municipality, police and local protection services. (fylkesmannen.no, n.d.)

County Governor of Sor-Trøndelag : The county governor is the main coordinator from a top down perspective as the office is tasked with playing a facilitator and an enforcer role on behalf of DSB. Thereby, they take part in audits and evaluation of preparedness plans and other DRR strategies, pre and post hazards respectively, and organizes an emergency council at county level in a crisis. This role is carried out throughout the region with the different municipalities and the central governmental agencies.(Lillestol & Rykkja ,2016)

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Disaster management department (DMA) (Trondheim Kommune): The Trondheim kommune in the form of disaster management authority is the closest stockholder to the action. They are tasked with on-site coordination of relief effort during a crisis, in this case the flood, as their staff is the main workforce behind crisis management. The department is the main crisis authority, that all local coordination goes through as they provide both the expertise in term of local knowledge and assessment of weak spots and main risks, but also coordinate all rescue efforts between the different agencies like fire department, the EMTs and the police force in addition to activating and supervising emergency procedures and plans.

The DMA is also the main stakeholder when it comes to the creation of targeted contingency plans as it’s the central authority that analyses risks, copping capacity and resilience and is expected to have plans and safeguards in place to deal with hazards and limit their impact to avoid disasters (Lillestol & Rykkja, 2016).

Figure 12: The institutional stakeholders and their dynamic.

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All of the actors mention above are part of the general DRR chain of command for the city of Trondheim, however, in the specific scenario that this paper is projecting other stakeholders are implicated since the area chosen for this study is not densely populated and is dominated by industries and business. As Trondheim main transportation hub, any contingency plan would heavily rely on implicating said businesses in the process as they are at risk of being the most impacted by the floods in term of material, financial and economic loss. The following diagram will look at all the main actors at play considered in the current scenario.

Figure 13: Stakeholders and their incentive/impact

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In the context of establishing a contingency plan it is important to do a primary stakeholder mapping to identify the main actors that would influence the planning process and have an impact on the implementation of said plan. This analysis will be done on the basis of expertise in the field of contingency planning, willingness to be part of it and the amount of power these stakeholders hold.

Figure 14: Stakeholder analysis based on willingness, expertise and power

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6. Developing a response strategy The response strategy will be defined as a set of actions considered appropriate to respond to a hazardous event, understanding that its impact expands in a temporal and spatial scale.

The goal of the strategy it’s to minimize the effects and attend the immediate needs of anyone affected.

A top-down approach would assume all actions needed to be taken based on the planners and authorities perceived impact of the hazards. We consider that this stage of the plan could see an active participation of stakeholders, reinforcing the collaborative character of an area based contingency plan (especially under budget constraints).

Figure 15: Interchangeable knowledge in a collaborative response strategy

Citizens as first responders, self-help and mutual support, are concepts that can be introduced in the development of the response operations. This shifts to a contingency planning practice that can see the common citizen as a resource, by being in the event location at any crisis outbreak.

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6.1 Response strategy As the effects of flooding can manifest in different spatial and temporal scale, we have defined goals and actions that should be implemented before, during and after the event. The before and during phases refer to preparedness and mitigation measurements, while the after might include recovery actions that can expand in a longer period of time.

In this phase, the vision of the plan comes forward as it is to preserve lives and personal safety, protect property if possible and make sure the affected area is safe so people and activities can resume functions in a desirable and secure way. Fig. x illustrates the structure of the strategy, and it’s explained as it follows.

Figure 16:Response strategy main objectives

Before the flood Disaster management authority (DMA) provided an early warning (EW) to all the citizen and emergency response to prepare for the flooding. DMA works in collaboration with Brattøra’s stakeholders, ensure a chain of communication through a direct point of contact in each location or a representative. Citizens are informed about the event through different communication mediums such as television, mobile network, radio and internet.

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All the television network and radio station will broadcast the EW, and Communication Company will send messages warning about the floods. Heavy rainfall and strong winds can cause an electrical short circuit. The powerhouses will inform citizen about the possibility of power cut in affected areas. Residents, Businesses and hospital prepare for the power cut by preparing generators, securing the data and files. Train, buses and ports prepared their plan to delay or close their services based on the EW. DMA prepares for water pumps to drain water at a critical location, provide information on new routes for better accessibility and arranges an emergency vehicle for rescue (Karin M. de Bruijn 1, 2019).

During the flood In the massive rainfall scenario, the infrastructure has an indirect effect and can add more negative impact on people and on emergency rescue. During the flood, the infrastructure tends to fail which can cause severe damages. Most of the services are stops during flooding as a preventive measure to avoid a life-threatening situation. The electrical power supply is cut off to avoid accidents because of the transmission network. Even though the power supply is cut off, DMA will provide backup electricity for emergency evacuation and rescue. Private and public vehicles and train stop as the flooded roads and tracks can cause traffic jams and accidents. Furthermore, it will also disturb the emergency evacuations. Communications are very crucial during the flooding not only for rescue but also to be in touch with friend and families during the disasters. During flood DMA will starts helpline.

After the flood After the flood, the scenario of damage is devastating and also dangerous as many of the infrastructures are vulnerable. Before restoring power supply, transportation and communication services, DMA will conduct an evaluation. Transmission networks and lines are checked before providing the power supply to avoid short circuit. With electricity, all the other facilities like traffic and communication signalling, communication networks, electronic controls will start again. Roads and railways are clean and repaired. The flood water usually washes away the best of the stones that support the sleepers.This stone must be laid again for a safe journey (railway line).

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7. Implementation plan Once the measurements to be taken have been defined under a general vision for the contingency plan, we need to define how these goals are going to be accomplished. We have found useful to correlate this question with the response strategy main objectives to start identifying a path and concrete actions that would help accomplish the main objectives.

During the discussion for this phase, we realized that given the scenario of not having a large budget available, the process of implementation would need to tap on the stakeholders dynamics, local engagement and collaborative development. Having as a background that stakeholders have agreed in common threats, goals and a vision, in this phase they can bring up to the discussion table the available resources that the plan can rely on.

An example of a collaborative approach would be the DMA and its access to an extensive system of flood mapping and weather forecast, and also to the knowledge for safety procedures, but in case of lacking enough staff to act as first responders, volunteers in the area (businesses, institutions, train station) can become ‘allies, and citizens can become the first resource in the area in case of needed. This not only applies to a flooding scenario, it can also be helpful for any type of crisis. Hence, the relevance of this approach as a planning tool.

Figure 17: Objective: Develop an Early Warning System

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Figure 18: Objective: Provide necessary evacuation and provisional shelter

Figure 19: Objective: Evaluate safety level

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8. Operational support plan The main utility of an operational support plan is assess the resources at hand for the response, which are essentially all the actors that would play a hand in the response strategy. In our contingency plan, the main contributing stakeholder would be the disaster management authority (DMA) in the Trondheim municipality that would serve as coordinators and expert for the implementation of the different phases of the contingency plan.

DMA would be in charge of different tasks at different levels, that starts with being the institutional branch of the contingency team and thereby being in charge of mapping and other warning system in addition to the implementation of national strategies and policies by following the chain of command. They would be the ones to implement any policy changes and requirement, organize workshop and campaigns that have as a goal building up the resilience of local businesses and train staff in emergency procedures for this type of crisis.

In addition to the DMA, other stakeholders are in action as both the emergency services (firefighters and EMTs) and the police department would benefit from training in this specific scenario and initiate a mapping strategy to determine safe routes, gathering points and shelters.

Furthermore, some businesses and private entities are to be involved in the process in the form of either material contribution or a financial one, and these include but are not limited to the hotels in and around the area that could provide spaces for temporary shelter, triage areas and food. Businesses that could contribute in man power by training their employees to face flood situations.

On the long term, other actors would be at play by providing logistical expertise of the likes of NTNU, which could contribute to the assessment phase and the rebuilt phase by studying the crisis and provide insight on how to best tackle future situations.

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9. Preparedness and Recovery plan According to IFCR disaster preparedness can be defined as “... measures taken to prepare for and reduce the effects of disasters. That is, to predict and - where possible - prevent disasters, mitigate their impact on vulnerable populations, and respond to and effectively cope with their consequences, at local, national and international levels” (IFCR, n.d.) .Disaster recovery is a preventive strategies for after disasters to return back to the normal situation as soon as possible. Disaster recovery plan collaborates with different organization and communities for the fast results.

Preparedness and recovery plans can take different forms but are usually focused on some main axes: early warning systems, workshops for citizens and staffs, business continuity plans and public-private partnerships.

Early warning system It involves weather forecast and different communication media like television, radio and internet to provide time to prepare for the disaster. Based on the information of early warning system transportation, communication, supply companies, businesses and other will prepare plan to minimize the impact.

Workshop Disaster management authority and private actors will provide workshops for staffs and the public. The workshop aims to provide knowledge on the emergency services, evacuations,policy and legal framework of the preparedness plan, disaster response, recovery phase, business continuity plan and so on.

Public-private partnerships “Public-private partnerships (PPP) have become a popular way for governments to engage private actors in the delivery of government infrastructure and services to increase quality and providing better value for money” (Zairol A. Auzzira*, 2014).The main role of private sectors is to overcome any weakness on the government side (Nathan E. Busch, 2013).

In the scenario of limited funding, the municipality collaborates with the business will to share the financial burden of the disaster with risk financing tools such as insurance and CAT bonds.

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Both businesses and government will share risk and profit. The private actors will get financial profits, and the public actors will get recognizable societal benefits (cited in Zairol A. Auzzira*, 2014). The collaboration will focus more on the drainage system. It will invest the repair and restoration of drainage before and after the disaster. PPP will not only address the insufficient funding but also address the shortcoming of the disaster management authority (Nathan E. Busch, 2013).

The partnership will also play an essential role in before, during and after the disaster to accelerate fast recovery of life and infrastructure. They will conduct necessary workshops to develop the emergency response and recovery plan to help businesses to operate after the disaster.

Business Continuity Plan “A Business Continuity Plan (BCP) is a plan describing the policy, systems, procedures, etc. by which enterprises can avoid suspension of their critical business or can recover the critical business quickly if it is interrupted.” (Cabinet Office, n.d).

After the disaster, many companies struggle to operate immediately. In the great east Japan earthquake, few large companies restored their regular operation immediately after the disaster because of the BCP. On the other hand, many medium and small companies suffered a financial loss not having any BCP. Learning from this incident, the government of Japan approved the central government business continuity plan (Takahiro Ono, n.d).

There are few appropriate measures suggested after the Great East Japan Earthquake to the company for the business continuity that we can also recommend in our disaster scenario for operational continuity. ●

The company should provide regular drill and training to staff. The drill should give to the specific department where they should train to work in emergencies and facilitate recovery.

● The company should develop the consequence-based strategies that focus on the outcome. The company should identify the critical factor that affects the company and try to find a solution to shorten the disruption during a disaster. ● Focus more on supply chain disruption risk by knowing more about the situations of stakeholders. The company should develop strategies that will continue throughout the supply chain.

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10. Funding of the plan (Budget) The financial aspects is always critical in the management of disasters. In order to strengthen local governments’ incentive for disaster management could be for local governments and municipalities to build up a disaster reserve fund (Nathan E. Busch, 2013). It has been shown that a municipality or a local government that has their own financial resources will be able to respond better to local demand and promote a greater economic growth (Rodriguez and Krøijer, 2009). The main issue with this is that there is many municipalities that lack their own financial resources and it must therefore be addressed how these resources should be raised (Nathan E. Busch, 2013).

In the given scenario for our contingency plan the municipality of Trondheim has a disaster management authority but is has very limited funding. Because of this the municipality together with involved stakeholders must find other ways of funding for response, prevention and preparedness. We have therefore chosen two main strategies for funding of the contingency plan.

1. Private-Public Partnerships As mentioned public-private partnerships are becoming an increasingly popular way for governments and local governments of engaging private actors in the delivery of government infrastructure and services (Nathan E. Busch, 2013). In our contingency plan and the chosen scenario, as Brattøra becomes an important area for business and the main hub for transportation in the region, it would be beneficial for both the municipality and local business to cooperate.

Flooding or other hazards could have major consequences for the area such as financial and employment losses, loss of the main transportation connection for the region which could be connected to a disruption in commercial activities. Local business would therefore have an incentive for engaging in partnerships with the municipality in terms of funding and financing for prevention and preparedness for hazards. This also contributes to a shared risk and profit for the businesses and municipality. The actual profit sharing does not have to be about financial profits, as the financial profits will probably be gained by involved public actors and the municipality will gain more of the social benefits. (Nathan E. Busch, 2013).

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2. Taxation A way of raising funds for the municipality and to build up a disaster reserve fund that could be used as a funding for the contingency plan could be through taxation. This taxation will be made in two ways. First a lower disaster taxation to be a part of the tax that the residents of Trondheim pay to the municipality. Secondly, a disaster taxation that will be higher that should be paid by the local businesses. As the area is prone to floods, the local businesses should have an incentive to pay a higher amount as the taxation also could be seen as a cheap form of insurance.

11. Discussion and conclusion We have laid out on this document the different components of a contingency plan for a chosen scenario. The purpose of plans is of course, to be implemented in case of needed, and only then, the strategies would prove appropriate or not, and this is determined mostly by the unforeseen elements, the ones who build on to the level of complexity and uncertainty of the planning scenario.

In this paper, we argue for a process-focused planning approach, as a way of dealing with uncertainty. We have identified elements of collaboration, local engagement, knowledge exchange, communication, and best practices as to be incorporated to construct a more comprehensive analysis of contingency planning.

To identify the risks for the given scenario and to connect them to the levels of uncertainty is something that also could studied further. As a large part of contingency planning is about addressing and discover uncertainty and the complexity that comes from it. Then dealing with the difficulties of identifying the risks for a given scenario when there is a high level of uncertainty, is in its own something challenging. It should therefore be taken into consideration when approaching and identifying the main risks for a given scenario that they are in fact very uncertain. Of course there are ways of reducing the uncertainty, such as learning from previous events.

Nevertheless, we see the element of experience as highly relevant, especially in the case of best practices, as it is the opportunity when plans prove their effectiveness. The entirety of this

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contingency plan is based on a theoretical foundation relying heavily on studies and projections.

Even if some aspects of it where based on experiences from other countries that are prone to floods and have a well-documented history of dealing with it, it is hard to be certain of its efficiency when implemented. This is due to the fact that Norway has very little experience with floods and could very well be blind to some aspects that are part of the Norwegian context that aren’t not present in the chosen case studies. These can manifest in the form of physical aspects or more likely in human unpredictability, as neither the population nor authorities have a recent memory of floods they could as a result be reluctant to engage as they would lack awareness or not be fully sensitized to the danger. Which would put the funding scheme on which this plan is basing a lot of its monetary revenue at risk and thereby in part failing.

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