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JUNE 2017 3 0 Y E A R R E P O RT | 2 017-2 0 4 6

Florida & Metro

FORECAST


About University of Central Florida (UCF) The University of Central Florida is a public, multi-campus, metropolitan research university, dedicated to serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer highquality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global community.

About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration advances the university’s mission and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele nationally and internationally.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:


FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T 2017 - 2046

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Colin Lancaster, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TA B LE O F CO NTENTS

Florida Highlights and Summary................................................. 5-13 Florida Forecast Tables................................................................. 14-28 Florida Forecast Charts............................................................... 29-37 Florida News Summaries.................................................................... 38 Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach...........................39-46 Gainesville........................................................................................... 47-54 Jacksonville........................................................................................ 55-62 Lakeland–Winter Haven............................................................... 63-70 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach...........................71-78 Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island............................................ 79-86 Ocala..................................................................................................... 87-94 Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford...................................................95-102 Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville..............................................103-110 Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent......................................................111-118 Tallahassee........................................................................................ 119-126 Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater.......................................127-134

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Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


H I G H L IG H TS O F T H E J U NE 2 017 FLO RIDA FO RE CAST •

Florida’s economy in 2046: o Payroll Employment: 12,728,122 o Population: 28,971,270 o Real Gross State Product: $1.877 trillion o Nominal Gross State Product: $4.345 trillion o Retail Sales: $1.218 trillion

From 2017-2020 Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%.

Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.0% in 2017. It will expand 3.7% in 2018 before growth eases to 2.9% in 2019 and then to 2.6% in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be on par with our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period.

Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Average job growth over the 2017-2020 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.

Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2017-2020. Consistently strong payroll job creation has strengthened Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment as well as attract out-of-state job seekers.

This same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging, but Florida’s job creation will overcome this counterweight. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.9% in 2018, 3.7% in 2019 and then to 3.8% in 2020.

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Construction (5.5%), Professional & Business Services (4.9%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.7%), Education & Health Services (2.4%), Financial (2.0%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.8%).

Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the short run. Total starts will be 135,598 in 2017, 151,409 in 2018, 157,349 in 2019 and 165,172 in 2020. House price appreciation should decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand.

Real personal income growth will average 4.1% during 2017-2020, starting with 4.0% growth in 2017, rising to 5.0% growth in 2018, and decelerating for the next two years. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 1.4 percentage points over that four-year span.

Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 5.0% during 2017-2020, boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, and rising household wealth.

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F LO RI DA’ S E CO N O MY BY 2 0 4 6 2026

2036

2046

Total Population

23,477,700

26,197,500

28,971,270

Payroll Employment

10,057,385

11,246,867

12,728,122

$1.529

$2.531

$4.345

$1.077

$1.408

$1.887

176,668

187,210

189,573

$1.201

$1.580

$2.075

$513

$784

$1,218

Gross State Product (trillions of current dollars)

Gross State Product (trillions of 2009 dollars)

Total Housing Starts Real Personal Income (trillions of 2009 dollars)

Retail Sales (billions of current dollars)

F LORI DA’S E CO N O MY I N 2 0 4 6 A lot can happen in thirty years. I am reminded of this fact every time I look in a mirror and every year when the Institute for Economic Competitiveness puts out our 2nd quarter Florida & Metro Forecast. It is in this quarter that we do our annual thirty-year outlook for Florida’s economy.

For those who are old enough to remember, it was 1987 when President Reagan gave his “tear down this wall” speech in West Berlin. It was also the year of the worst single-day percentage decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22.6% to close at 1,738 on what became known as Black Monday, October 19th of that year.

Real GDP was $8.1 trillion in 1987 and is expected to be near $17.1 trillion in 2017. I would have been using a typewriter and gallons of

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Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Wite-out to write this in 1987, probably listening to U2’s “The Joshua Tree” cassette tape on a Sony Walkman. Cell phones were few and far between and were about the size of 12-inch sub from Publix. The movie Dirty Dancing was released and became an unexpected hit and subsequent cult classic. Since 1987 there have been three recessions, two financial bubbles, eight presidential elections, the stock market has hit an all-time high over 21,500, and technological and economic changes have since taken place that would have been unimaginable in 1987. So you might ask, why do we put out a 30-year forecast each year? Because nobody puts the IEC in a corner. It is a dirty business, not Dirty Dancing, trying to predict thirty years into the future, but there are


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those who must plan decades ahead. We do it for those involved in transportation planning, education, development, government, utilities, pension planning, business, site selection and anyone else who must make decisions that are based on the long run. These forecasts are meant to provide input into their decision making process.

It would be reasonable to expect that we will have three to five recessions over the next thirty years, but unreasonable to try and predict the timing of these downturns. So in the long run forecasts we do not try to incorporate cyclical fluctuations into the projections that follow. Instead we allow the forecasts to converge to trends, trends driven by the underlying fundamentals of economic growth. The result is graphs that are pretty boring as the projections converge to those trends and a predicted path for the economy that will vary significantly from the actual path the economy follows over the next three decades.

So put your Walkman on (I’m told cassettes are making a comeback) as you peruse the pages that follow. In the meantime, here are few highlights of what Florida’s economy will look like by 2046.

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Low and Falling Inventories Continue to Feed Price Appreciation The May 2017 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors portrays a market for existing housing that remains tight, fueling price appreciation that is closing in on the highs of the housing bubble. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $17,010 in May 2017, year over year, and now stands at $239,000—a year-over-year price appreciation of 1

a robust 7.7%. Price appreciation in the townhome/ condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $13,300 year over year, registering at $178,000 in May of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in May are down from a year ago and are now just 4.0 months, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.1 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 6.1 months’ supply back in May of 2016 to 6.0 months’ this May. This indicates that the condo market has moved toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers but slightly tilted in the buyers’ favor.

Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to plummet year over year (-30.7%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus May 2016 (-44.5%). Traditional sales are up 14.2% year over year versus May 2016.

Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still rapidly contracting year over year as well (-44.8%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply as well versus May 2016 (-47.2%). Traditional sales were up 13.7% in May 2017 when compared to May 2016.

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.8% in May 2017. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 54.4% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminishing role of cash investors in Florida’s housing market, amid some improvement in mortgage availability year over year.2 Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a

According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market.

2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 0.2 percent to 183.0 in April 2017 from March 2017. A decline in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in April 2017 were 83.0% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Florida

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000

30,000

25,000

Realtor Sales Moving Average

$250,000

20,000

$200,000

15,000

$150,000

10,000

$100,000

5,000

$50,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$0

0

Source: Florida Realtors

Source: Florida Realtors

strong upward path and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have now exceeded their peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past year, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years and a depleted inventory of houses for sale.

price increases of 2015 and 2016 have eased in 2017. Still, over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $22,000.

The fundamentals of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market and more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued population growth via the in-migration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s population growth. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand for housing. Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of 8

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Low inventories of existing homes for sale and sputtering housing starts growth contribute to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts to ramp up over the next several years. Single-family housing starts in 2020 are expected to increase by 107% from 2014 levels.

GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at an average pace on par with what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years. In 2013, as the state exited the “greater recession,” Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 1.9% with rising consumer confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth, and healing of the damage in the labor market; building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Growth accelerated to 4.0% in 2015 but eased in 2016 to 2.7% as the national economy only grew 1.6% in that year. Florida is poised for another two-year acceleration in growth before growth eases again in 2019 and 2020.


FLORIDA SUMMARY

The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015 when RGSP expanded at 4.0%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2017 through 2018, however, growth will accelerate again as the Trump administration’s economic policy helps to boost Florida’s economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.0% and 3.7%. During 2017-2020, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.1% annually. In 2019 and 2020, however, growth has been revised down as anticipated increases in interest rates work their way through the economy. This average growth of 3.1% during 2017 through 2020 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged 2.9%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is on par with the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (3.1%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now stand at $239,000. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair the damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but even with rapid price appreciation, it will still take a year or two to recover all the wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the medianprice high of $257,800 in June of 2006.

Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be more than $977 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with an NGSP of $1.035 trillion, then continue to climb to $1.088 trillion in 2019, before hitting $1.141 trillion in 2020.

PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND AUTO SALES In 2015, real personal income growth in Florida hit 5.2% after growing 5.1% in the prior year. These two strong years of growth followed a contraction of 0.6% in 2013. Growth will ease in 2016, as personal income

growth comes in at 3.8%. From that point, personal income growth will tick up to 4.0% in 2017, before accelerating again to 5.0% in 2018 and easing back to 4.3% in 2019, then contracting to 3.2% in 2020. Florida is expected to outpace the nation in real personal income growth, averaging 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2017 through 2020. Real personal income growth during 2017-2020 will average 4.1% in Florida. Nominal personal income will exceed $1.013 trillion in 2020, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $319 billion from its nadir in 2009.

In 2017, real disposable income growth will average 3.7%, down from the previous year’s 4.1% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2017-2020 will remain a healthy 4.1%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.7% during the same time frame.

Financial markets have been in a bull market since the low point of the financial crisis thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy bolstered by three massive rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it has been hovering after hitting a high of 18,668. In 2016 financial markets got off to a rough start but recovered by spring. The stock market once again spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark—until the 2016 presidential election. Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock market has set multiple record highs, with the Dow touching 21,535 at its peak to date. Whether this rally was driven by expectations of a stronger economy under the Trump administration or other factors could be debated. There is no debating that the stock market has continued to set and break through record highs since the election. For those households holding stocks and bonds directly or through retirement accounts, this bullrun has created trillions of dollars of wealth. The Fed embarked on its third interest rate hike in March of this year and did so again at their June FOMC meeting. Interest rate hikes, which are likely to Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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come at this more rapid pace going forward, will weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, faster economic growth will likely outweigh the economic drag of higher interest rates.

Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly, nor as completely, as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been climbing over the past four years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has eased in 2017, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians; however, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017 and into 2018. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow, boosting consumer confidence and spending and financing the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida. With Florida’s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum, wage and salary growth that is finally materializing, and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will remain strong through 2020, with growth averaging 5.0% during 2017-2020. Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing, in some cases interest-free, for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and continued improvement Florida’s labor market. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2015 when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 11.4%.

The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during 2017-2020. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 2.6%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2017 at nearly 4.25% before dipping in 2018 to 3.54%, to 1.3% in 2019 and holding at that rate in 2020. 10

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

In 2020, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.497 million, rising from the 2019 projection of 1.478 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016, but the pro-growth policy of the new presidential administration will keep this sector moving forward, albeit in a lower gear. This will extend the streak of rising registrations to eleven years, carrying it through to the end of our current forecast horizon.

EMPLOYMENT The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida is that this will continue to be the case through at least 2020, but this outpacing will narrow since higher levels of job growth are expected nationally.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2015 at 3.6%. Most of that momentum carried over into 2016, though the pace has eased slightly. Growth decelerated slightly last year to 3.5%, before it is expected to ease to 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short-run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2017-2020) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

The Construction sector was shattered by the bursting of the housing bubble, with total job losses at just under 347,000. It is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2020 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth in the Construction sector remains strong, supported by anticipated infrastructure spending by the Trump administration, the pace of forecasted growth will ease somewhat going forward as higher interest rates driven by Fed tightening will create a bit of a headwind for the housing sector. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate slightly over the upcoming year but will remain strong, as housing starts continue to grow in an environment that still features significant price appreciation for


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existing single-family homes. Despite the episodic slowing in new home construction growth, growth rates in housing starts over the forecast horizon will support construction job growth of 7.6% in 2017, before decelerating to 6.7% in 2018, easing to 4.6% in 2019 and further to 3.1% in 2020. Average annual job growth during 2017-2020 will be 5.5%. Employment will average 585,647 in 2020—a level that is 96,478 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $51,408.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2020. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.9% during 2017-2020. Job growth in this sector over the past three years averaged 4.8%, but growth will be slightly faster over the next four years. Job growth will ease in 2017 to 4.8% after growing 7.8% in 2016, before accelerating back to 7.8% in 2018. Growth in this sector will ease to 4.5% in 2019 before easing further to 2.4% in 2020.

The Professional and Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are near $62,1923. The Professional and Business Services sector in Florida recovered very quickly from the “Greater Recession” and was the first to recover all its payroll jobs lost during the recession and will continue to perform strongly through 2020. The Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years in 2013 with job growth of 0.4%. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose momentum once again in 2015. The Information sector is a mix of hightech sectors such as computer programming and

3 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: http://floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/ data-center/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-of employment-and-wages

software development, both sources of growth, but the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, are beginning to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth when it returns will remain muted.

Growth finally turned positive in 2013 and growth will stay in this territory through 2020. Job growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 1.1% in 2019 before easing to 0.4% in 2020. The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of 1.0% during 2017-2020. The Education and Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently even during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state’s larger share of the population of older residents, who have a higher demand for health services, have supported this growth. The future replacement of the Affordable Care Act is still being hashed out in Congress. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector but despite this uncertainty job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During 2017-2020, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 2.4%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $49,760.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2017 should see an easing but still respectable growth. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming more unfriendly as global economic environments remain tenuous, trade agreements are in flux and the U.S. dollar continues to be strong. The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, Brexit and its aftermath, and the incipient recovery from a historic recession in Brazil, have all fed into the current global economic environment. The

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Trump Administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the meantime create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector.

These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2017, job growth will average 2.7%.

We are looking at job growth of 1.2% in manufacturing for 2018, followed by a slight acceleration to 1.3% in 2019 with a further slowing of growth in 2020 when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate of 1.1%. Average job growth during 20172020 with thus come in at 1.6%. The State and Local Government sector in Florida are enjoying improved revenue flows, though not back to the windfall levels of the housing bubble. As housing prices continue to climb; property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, the specter of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued.

As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will grow as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. Average job growth in State and Local Government during 2017-2020 will be 1.2%, with annual growth rising to 1.6% in 2019 before easing to 1.1% in 2020. The 2019 growth rate is the expected to be the fastest since before the recession. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida

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Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

will average -0.3% with growth turning negative in 2017 and remaining in negative territory until the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020. Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump administration—large infrastructure spending coupled with tax cuts—will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years.

As the Federal Reserve begins to move more quickly with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than $19.95 trillion and poised to go higher will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits has been dampened by historically low-interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain is going to intensify as Treasury rates climb along with the Fed’s increases in the federal fund’s rate, higher rates of inflation and a Trump administration reflates annual budget deficits.

UNEMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at 4.3% as of May 2017. After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s May 2017 unemployment rate is at par with the national unemployment rate.

Florida’s labor force participation rate in May 2017 stood at 60.1%, which is up from 59.0% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in May 2017, which is down 0.1 points from May 2016. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since February of 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. The number of retirees in that population, who are obviously older


FLORIDA SUMMARY

than sixteen, but who no longer are active in the labor force, push down the overall labor force participation rate.

The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are in retirement explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than the national rate and the continued migration of retirees to the Sunshine State should weigh on the participation rate. In May 2016, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 310,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 367,000. We are forecasting solid economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly challenging. After 2016’s growth of 2.1%, we expect the labor force to continue to grow near this level during 2017-2020 at an average rate of 2.0%, despite the downward pressure from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower declines in the unemployment rate, but this will not stop the downward trend in unemployment rates over the forecast horizon.

the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.5% over that same time period.

U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010).

The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act likely caused the levels of underemployment to grow. Employer and worker responses to the full/part-time distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law will be removed by the current proposal to repeal the law. This would have a downward effect on the levels of U-6 nationally and in Florida.

Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will continue to provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of that healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 5.2 percentage points, while that gap is 6.0 percentage points in Florida.

Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force—defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6.

Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.3% during the 2nd quarter 2016 through the 1st quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile,

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F lorida T ables

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

691.4

728.1

773.3

793.1

798.9

Florida (%Ch)

-5.9

5.3

6.2

2.6

0.7

U.S.(%Ch)

-3.2

3.2

6.2

5.0

693.5

724.4

749.3

Florida (%Ch)

-5.0

4.5

U.S.(%Ch)

-3.2

1.5

639.3

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

2014

2015

2016

2017

853.3

900.6

944.4

997.9

6.8

5.6

4.9

5.7

1.2

5.2

4.4

3.5

4.9

755.3

750.8

789.3

830.6

862.3

896.5

3.5

0.8

-0.6

5.1

5.2

3.8

4.0

3.7

3.0

-0.2

3.7

4.0

2.4

3.5

666.3

681.8

685.2

673.7

705.5

738.1

768.5

796.8

-2.7

4.2

2.3

0.5

-1.7

4.7

4.6

4.1

3.7

-0.4

1.0

2.5

3.1

-1.4

3.5

3.5

2.7

3.3

721.8

735.1

741.5

764.1

793.1

833.4

888.1

928.8

977.0

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

-3.5

1.9

0.9

3.1

3.8

5.1

6.6

4.6

5.2

721.8

727.7

723.3

729.4

743.1

764.7

795.0

816.4

841.2

(%Ch)

-5.5

0.8

-0.6

0.8

1.9

2.9

4.0

2.7

3.0

Employment

-5.1

0.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

2.3

1.6

2.5

3.3

Labor Force

-0.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.3

0.7

2.1

3.0

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

10.5

10.9

9.8

8.4

7.1

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

9.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.5

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

-4.3

-0.7

1.2

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.1

Florida

-6.3

-0.8

1.1

2.0

2.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.3

Mining

-11.5

-0.5

4.0

-0.3

0.5

0.9

1.9

-1.1

1.3

Construction

-23.1

-11.4

-4.3

2.0

6.9

8.6

8.8

9.5

7.6

Manufacturing

-12.7

-4.5

1.1

1.6

1.5

3.0

3.4

3.6

2.7

Nondurable Goods

-10.0

-3.6

0.8

1.1

-0.2

1.2

1.5

4.0

0.9

Durable Goods

-14.0

-5.0

1.3

1.8

2.5

3.8

4.3

3.4

3.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-6.6

-2.0

3.7

2.1

2.7

3.2

4.7

4.3

2.2

Wholesale Trade

-7.9

-2.8

-0.3

1.8

1.0

2.0

2.3

1.3

3.1

Retail Trade

-6.6

0.2

2.2

2.4

2.7

3.8

3.7

2.1

2.7

Financial Activities

-7.3

-1.9

1.8

2.7

2.7

1.7

2.4

2.4

2.5

Prof. and Business Services

-8.2

1.3

3.0

3.7

4.0

4.2

5.0

5.1

4.8

1.2

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.7

2.7

3.6

3.6

3.3

Leisure & Hospitality

-4.5

0.5

2.8

4.2

4.0

4.6

4.5

3.6

3.8

Information

-8.5

-4.6

-1.0

-1.5

0.4

1.5

0.3

0.3

0.7

2.3

7.2

-5.4

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

2.0

2.6

-0.9

-1.5

-1.2

-1.1

-1.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.5

1.1

0.9

Edu & Health Services

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

18682.8 18884.4 19127.8 19373.3 19624.7 19936.4 20291.6 20656.5 21001.2

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

110.0

180.0

207.7

207.2

237.9

299.0

339.9

340.7

312.7

(%Ch)

46.6

80.8

18.9

-0.2

14.8

26.3

14.6

0.3

-8.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

33.6

37.9

41.3

59.2

80.6

79.7

103.1

112.4

135.6

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

26.7

31.6

31.7

42.5

54.6

56.0

68.2

77.3

84.4

6.9

6.4

9.6

16.8

26.0

23.8

34.9

35.1

51.2

-0.2

1.2

3.1

0.3

1.7

2.4

Net Migration (thous)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 14

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

1.9

1.6

1.8


F lorida T ables

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

1061.0

1125.5

1187.1

1250.6

1315.7

Florida (%Ch)

6.3

6.1

5.5

5.4

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

5.6

5.5

5.1

4.9

941.6

982.1

1013.8

Florida (%Ch)

5.0

4.3

U.S.(%Ch)

4.5

3.8

840.7

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

2023

2024

2025

2026

1383.9

1454.2

1525.2

1596.7

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.6

1044.8

1075.2

1106.5

1138.5

1170.0

1201.0

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.5

875.5

902.4

930.5

956.6

983.2

1010.8

1038.8

1066.5

5.5

4.1

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

4.8

3.6

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.5

1035.7

1088.2

1142.0

1199.0

1260.7

1326.0

1393.0

1459.9

1529.4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

6.0

5.1

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.8

872.3

897.2

921.0

945.2

971.9

999.1

1026.1

1051.1

1077.5

(%Ch)

3.7

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.5

Employment

2.2

1.8

1.4

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

Labor Force

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.1

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.9

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.1

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

0.7

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

2.3

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Florida

3.3

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.2

Mining

0.5

-1.3

-1.0

-0.5

-0.1

0.0

-0.9

-1.3

-1.3

Construction

6.7

4.6

3.1

3.9

4.0

3.5

2.9

2.4

1.3

Manufacturing

1.2

1.3

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

-0.3

0.4

0.4

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

-0.4

-0.6

-0.5

Durable Goods

2.0

1.8

1.4

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.1

1.3

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.8

0.8

Wholesale Trade

2.9

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.2

Retail Trade

2.4

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.6

0.6

Financial Activities

3.1

1.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

Prof. and Business Services

7.8

4.5

2.4

3.0

4.0

3.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

Edu & Health Services

2.1

2.0

2.2

1.4

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.5

Leisure & Hospitality

3.0

2.3

1.9

1.6

0.8

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

Information

1.8

1.1

0.4

0.9

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.9

1.0

-3.2

-1.5

4.4

-4.8

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

1.2

1.6

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.4

Nondurable Goods

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

21316.6 21604.1 21874.8 22140.9 22406.0 22672.5 22940.0 23208.6 23477.7

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

283.7

256.7

245.4

241.3

240.6

241.2

241.7

242.3

242.7

-9.3

-9.5

-4.3

-1.7

-0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

151.4

157.3

165.2

173.5

177.5

180.8

183.8

180.0

176.7

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

94.9

98.9

102.4

107.1

109.4

111.4

114.2

110.3

106.3

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

56.5

58.4

62.8

66.4

68.1

69.3

69.6

69.6

70.4

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.3

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.3

2.4

2.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F lorida T ables

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

1670.2

1749.3

1838.5

1930.6

2030.2

2134.5

Florida (%Ch)

4.6

4.7

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.1

U.S.(%Ch)

4.5

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

1232.6

1264.9

1301.1

1337.0

Florida (%Ch)

2.6

2.6

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4

2.5

2.7

1094.1

1122.1

Florida (%Ch)

2.6

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4 1600.2

2033

2034

2035

2036

2242.0

2357.2

2477.5

2601.9

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.0

4.9

1375.8

1415.3

1454.5

1496.1

1538.2

1580.3

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.6

1153.2

1183.0

1215.0

1248.3

1281.3

1315.1

1349.4

1383.7

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

1677.6

1766.4

1856.6

1957.7

2059.0

2168.4

2284.7

2403.1

2532.0

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.6

4.8

5.3

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.4

1104.5

1132.4

1164.3

1194.9

1230.1

1262.9

1298.0

1334.8

1370.2

1408.7

(%Ch)

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

Employment

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.2

Labor Force

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

0.8

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.6

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

Florida

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.1

-1.1

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

0.1

0.4

-0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

Mining Construction

0.9

0.6

1.9

2.4

3.1

2.4

2.3

2.8

2.4

2.3

Manufacturing

0.1

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.9

-0.9

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3 -0.9

-0.6

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

Durable Goods

Nondurable Goods

0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

-0.9

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

0.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.2

-0.2

0.2

-0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

Wholesale Trade

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

Retail Trade

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.2

1.1

Financial Activities

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Prof. and Business Services

2.4

2.4

2.5

1.8

2.7

3.0

1.9

1.5

1.7

2.0

Edu & Health Services

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

Leisure & Hospitality

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.6

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.0

Information

1.0

1.3

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.0

Federal Gov't.

0.2

1.6

2.2

8.5

-2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

State & Local Gov't.

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

23747.6 24018.0 24289.1 24560.8 24833.0 25105.2 25377.6 25650.6 25923.8 26197.5

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

243.6

244.4

245.2

246.1

246.6

246.7

247.2

247.5

247.4

247.9

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

173.3

170.8

175.1

177.1

179.6

173.9

178.8

185.2

186.4

187.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

102.8

100.2

103.0

103.2

104.6

97.6

101.4

106.3

106.3

107.7

70.5

70.6

72.1

74.0

75.0

76.3

77.4

78.9

80.1

79.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 16

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

2.4

2.4


F lorida T ables

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2729.1

2866.0

3013.0

3167.4

3330.2

3497.8

Florida (%Ch)

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

1621.4

1665.4

1712.2

1760.3

Florida (%Ch)

2.6

2.7

2.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.6

2.6

2.7

1417.4

1453.4

Florida (%Ch)

2.4

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4 2667.4

2043

2044

2045

2046

3675.2

3865.9

4067.0

4274.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.9

1809.9

1858.9

1909.8

1964.0

2020.1

2075.4

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.6

1491.7

1530.9

1571.3

1610.8

1651.5

1694.6

1739.0

1782.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.4

2811.2

2971.7

3136.2

3309.0

3492.2

3687.8

3898.4

4114.9

4345.3

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

5.3

5.4

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.6

1448.5

1489.9

1537.0

1583.1

1629.6

1677.7

1727.8

1780.8

1832.7

1887.0

(%Ch)

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

Employment

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Labor Force

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.1

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

0.8

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Florida

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.7

-1.8

-1.8

Mining Construction Manufacturing

2.0

1.7

2.1

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.9

2.7

2.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-1.2

Nondurable Goods

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

Durable Goods

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-1.3

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

Wholesale Trade

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

Retail Trade

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

Financial Activities

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

Prof. and Business Services

1.6

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.9

2.5

Edu & Health Services

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.0

Leisure & Hospitality

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.1

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.7

Information

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.1

1.1

Federal Gov't.

2.0

1.9

1.8

5.5

-1.7

2.1

1.5

2.0

1.9

1.8

State & Local Gov't.

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

26472.0 26747.0 27022.7 27299.0 27575.7 27853.1 28131.4 28410.5 28690.4 28971.3

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

248.0

248.0

248.3

248.1

248.1

248.3

248.5

248.6

248.7

249.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

184.7

182.7

184.0

183.1

182.5

182.4

184.9

188.6

189.4

189.6

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

106.5

105.0

106.2

105.0

105.5

106.0

108.8

112.8

113.5

113.9

78.2

77.7

77.8

78.1

77.0

76.4

76.1

75.8

75.8

75.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.8

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.7

2.8

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F lorida T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

990.49 1005.7 1020.5 1037.1 1052.9 1068.9 1085.1 1102.8

1118 1133.4 1147.8 1163.6

Florida (%Ch)

5.6

5.5

6.0

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.5

U.S.(%Ch)

4.7

5.0

5.4

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.2

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

892.41 901.88 912.37 925.16

936.5 947.02 957.76 969.31 978.21 986.78

994 1002.1

Florida (%Ch)

4.0

3.8

4.4

5.2

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.3

3.6

4.4

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.5

3.2

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

793.64 801.48 809.82 826.29

836.5 845.46 854.62 864.39 872.18

879.7 885.88 892.76

Florida(%Ch)

3.8

3.6

4.0

5.6

5.4

5.5

5.5

4.6

4.3

4.0

3.7

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

3.1

3.4

4.0

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.7

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$)

968.64 984.43 999.67 1015.2 1029.1 1042.8 1055.7 1069.7 1081.6 1094.4 5.0

5.4

836.98 845.35

5.7

4.9

4.8

853.4 862.06 869.11 875.84 882.18 888.97 894.27 900.05 905.52

911.9

3.3

6.3 4.0

6.2 3.8

5.9

5.6

3.6

5.4

3.4

3.1

5.1

(%Ch)

3.0

3.1

2.9

Employment

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

Labor Force

3.3

3.1

2.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

4.9

1107 1121.2

2.8

2.6

2.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.0

1.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

Florida

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.8

Mining

0.6

2.9

2.8

2.6

0.5

-0.3

-0.9

-1.3

-1.3

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

Construction

7.3

7.0

8.1

6.7

6.9

7.0

6.2

5.5

4.9

4.2

3.7

3.3

Manufacturing

3.0

2.4

2.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

Nondurable Goods

1.3

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.7

Durable Goods

3.8

3.5

3.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

2.2

2.4

2.5

3.8

3.5

2.9

2.2

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

Wholesale Trade

2.4

3.1

4.8

3.5

3.2

2.7

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.9

Retail Trade

2.9

2.4

2.6

2.9

2.5

2.2

1.9

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

0.9

Financial Activities

2.4

2.8

2.8

3.5

3.3

3.0

2.6

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.0

Prof. and Business Services

3.8

4.8

6.7

8.2

8.9

7.7

6.4

5.5

4.8

4.1

3.8

2.7

Edu & Health Services

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.4

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.2

Leisure & Hospitality

3.9

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.1

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.1

Information

0.6

1.0

1.1

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.1

0.7

Federal Gov't.

0.4

-2.0

-4.1

-4.3

-3.5

-2.9

-2.2

-1.9

-1.6

-1.3

-1.0

-1.9

State & Local Gov't.

0.9

0.5

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

20803.8 20882.7 20962.0 21041.6 21121.6 21201.9 21282.3 21362.7 21443.2 21523.7 21604.2 21684.8

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

65.9

65.9

65.9

66.0

66.1

66.3

66.3

66.3

66.3

66.2

66.2

66.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

132.0

138.4

144.0

148.5

152.7

151.3

153.1

154.4

157.4

158.0

159.6

161.5

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

82.4

85.2

88.3

91.4

94.3

96.4

97.3

98.0

98.4

99.4

99.8

100.7

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

49.6

53.1

55.7

57.1

58.3

54.9

55.8

56.3

59.0

58.6

59.8

60.9

2.5

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.4

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate 18

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

1.7

1.8


F lorida T ables

Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8615.7 8701.9 8777.2 8863.5 8921.2 8975.8 9021.7 9080.8 9126.6 9173.9 9211.1 9241.2

Manufacturing

364.8

365.5

366.3

367.9

369.1

370.0

371.2

372.7

373.9

375.3

376.3

377.3

Durable Goods

249.0

249.9

250.9

252.5

253.9

254.8

256.0

257.3

258.3

259.4

260.2

261.2

Wood Products

14.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.7

14.9

15.2

15.4

15.6

15.9

16.0

Computer & Electronics

41.8

41.9

42.0

42.2

42.4

42.5

42.7

42.7

42.6

42.6

42.6

42.7

Transportation Equipment

41.5

41.4

41.3

41.4

41.6

41.6

41.6

41.6

41.7

41.8

41.9

42.3

115.8

115.6

115.4

115.3

115.2

115.2

115.2

115.4

115.6

115.9

116.1

116.2

31.9

32.0

32.0

32.1

32.2

32.3

32.3

32.5

32.6

32.8

32.9

32.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

8250.9 8336.4 8410.9 8495.6 8552.1 8605.8 8650.5 8708.2 8752.7 8798.6 8834.8 8863.8 5.8

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

Construction

504.5

512.4

521.9

531.1

539.4

548.0

554.5

560.4

565.6

570.8

575.1

578.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

283.3

285.7

288.3

291.1

293.0

294.0

294.6

295.5

296.4

297.4

298.2

298.6

Wholesale Trade

347.9

351.3

354.5

357.4

359.1

360.7

362.0

363.6

365.0

366.8

368.1

370.3

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1130.0 1137.2 1142.0 1153.8 1158.0 1162.0 1164.0 1169.9 1172.5 1177.2 1178.5 1179.8 137.7

137.9

139.0

139.9

140.4

140.3

140.8

141.3

141.7

142.2

142.3

142.3

1326.1 1358.5 1390.1 1420.5 1443.6 1463.7 1478.7 1499.1 1512.2 1523.4 1534.5 1539.2

Admin. & Support

680.2

706.2

731.9

755.8

773.6

788.5

799.1

814.0

822.7

829.7

837.9

840.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

541.0

546.9

552.6

558.7

563.7

568.5

572.7

578.1

582.3

586.2

589.0

591.2

Mgmt. of Co.

104.9

105.4

105.6

106.0

106.3

106.6

106.9

107.0

107.2

107.4

107.6

108.0

Financial Activities

558.2

562.9

567.4

573.1

576.4

579.6

582.4

585.0

587.0

588.7

590.2

591.1

Real Estate & Rent

186.2

187.2

188.2

189.5

190.6

191.5

192.5

193.5

194.3

195.3

196.1

196.9

Fin. & Insurance

371.9

375.7

379.3

383.5

385.9

388.1

389.8

391.5

392.7

393.4

394.0

394.2

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

1279.2 1290.5 1296.4 1304.4 1309.3 1314.2 1319.2 1326.7 1333.8 1341.2 1347.9 1356.2 161.9

161.1

160.1

159.8

159.5

159.4

159.3

159.1

158.6

158.1

157.3

156.9

Health Services

1117.2 1129.4 1136.3 1144.6 1149.8 1154.7 1159.9 1167.5 1175.2 1183.1 1190.5 1199.3

Leisure & Hospitality

1214.4 1227.5 1236.9 1247.0 1252.6 1259.2 1266.1 1273.9 1281.0 1289.6 1295.5 1300.9

Other Services Government

362.2

363.5

364.5

366.0

367.1

368.2

369.1

370.2

370.7

371.2

371.3

372.4

1101.6 1103.1 1103.9 1105.6 1107.2 1110.2 1113.3 1116.9 1120.9 1124.4 1127.5 1128.5

Federal Gov't.

136.9

135.2

133.6

132.8

132.1

131.4

130.6

130.3

130.0

129.7

129.3

127.8

State & Local Gov't

964.7

967.8

970.3

972.8

975.1

978.9

982.7

986.6

990.9

994.7

998.2 1000.7

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F lorida T ables

Table 4. Employment Annual 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7230.6

7172.6

7252.3

7396.7

7581.6

7823.4

8106.0

8387.6

8661.2

Manufacturing

324.0

309.0

312.5

317.4

322.3

331.8

343.1

355.4

365.0

Durable Goods

214.5

203.6

206.1

209.9

215.0

223.2

232.8

240.8

249.4

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.3

12.6

13.5

14.2

44.667

42.958

42.975

42.458

40.992

40.7

41.1

41.4

41.878

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.4

36.4

37.5

39.4

40.9

41.4

109.5

105.5

106.3

107.5

107.3

108.6

110.2

114.6

115.6

27.9

27.5

28.7

29.2

29.5

29.8

30.3

31.4

31.9

6906.6

6863.6

6939.8

7079.3

7259.3

7491.5

7763.0

8032.2

8296.1

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

396.72

350.62

335.51

342.06

365.87

397.32

432.37

473.3

509.19

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

231.8

227.1

235.4

240.5

246.9

254.8

266.7

278.2

284.4

Wholesale Trade

322.4

313.2

312.1

317.9

320.9

327.5

334.8

339.3

349.8

Retail Trade

932.3

934.4

955.4

978.3

1004.8

1043.0

1081.1

1103.4

1132.6

Information

143.8

137.1

135.7

133.6

134.2

136.1

136.6

136.9

137.8

Prof. & Bus. Services

993.2

1005.9

1036.0

1074.4

1117.5

1164.3

1222.2

1285.0

1346.8

Admin. & Support

481.8

494.3

516.8

538.0

558.9

585.0

618.9

654.7

697.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

431.5

432.4

437.8

451.0

467.4

485.1

506.6

529.9

544.1

80.0

79.1

81.4

85.4

91.2

94.2

96.7

100.4

104.9

Financial Activities

487.4

478.0

486.5

499.5

512.8

521.3

534.1

546.8

560.6

Real Estate & Rent

154.9

150.4

153.1

160.1

165.5

171.0

176.8

180.7

186.7

Fin. & Insurance

332.4

327.6

333.5

339.5

347.3

350.3

357.3

366.2

373.9

1050.8

1070.7

1091.1

1109.2

1128.1

1158.8

1200.1

1243.4

1284.2

Education Services

127.6

134.6

136.7

139.5

142.5

147.5

151.8

156.8

161.2

Health Services

923.2

936.1

954.4

969.7

985.6

1011.3

1048.3

1086.7

1123.0

Leisure & Hospitality

926.9

931.4

957.2

997.5

1037.4

1085.2

1134.1

1175.3

1219.9

Other Services

301.1

297.3

295.7

301.6

309.2

323.1

333.7

349.7

362.7

1114.8

1112.7

1093.3

1079.1

1075.9

1074.3

1081.3

1095.1

1102.2

Federal Gov't.

132.7

142.3

134.0

132.7

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.4

136.1

State & Local Gov't

982.2

970.4

959.3

946.4

943.9

943.0

947.4

957.7

966.1

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

20

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida T ables

Table 4. Employment Annual 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Total Nonfarm

8945.6

9148.1

9300.3

9433.0

9576.6

9710.8

9822.1

Manufacturing

369.5

374.5

378.5

380.6

382.5

383.4

383.9

384.2

385.2

Durable Goods

254.3

258.8

262.3

264.6

267.0

268.2

269.1

270.0

271.7

Wood Products

14.7

15.5

16.3

17.2

18.3

19.2

19.8

20.1

20.2

Computer & Electronics

42.4

42.6

42.8

42.8

43.0

42.9

43.1

43.5

43.8

Transportation Equipment

41.5

41.8

43.0

43.7

42.9

41.7

40.5

40.3

40.9

115.2

115.7

116.2

116.0

115.6

115.2

114.8

114.1

113.5

32.2

32.7

33.0

33.2

33.2

33.4

33.7

33.8

33.9

8576.0

8773.6

8921.8

9052.5

9194.1

9327.4

9438.2

9555.2

9672.2

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

Construction

543.2

568.0

585.6

608.3

632.6

654.4

673.3

689.1

698.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

293.2

296.9

299.2

300.9

302.4

303.2

303.5

306.0

308.5

Wholesale Trade

359.8

365.9

372.5

377.0

380.9

384.3

387.0

388.9

389.7

Retail Trade

1159.4

1174.5

1181.8

1186.5

1190.5

1191.7

1193.2

1200.7

1208.1

Information

140.3

141.9

142.5

143.8

145.7

148.0

149.9

151.3

152.8

Prof. & Bus. Services

1451.6

1517.3

1553.2

1599.3

1662.9

1727.9

1777.2

1828.1

1888.2

Admin. & Support

779.2

826.1

849.2

879.8

923.0

965.3

992.5

1023.3

1061.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

565.9

583.9

595.2

609.3

628.6

650.4

671.6

691.3

712.9

Mgmt. of Co.

106.4

107.3

108.8

110.2

111.3

112.3

113.2

113.5

113.5

Financial Activities

577.9

587.7

592.5

598.4

604.5

610.9

618.0

624.8

631.8

Real Estate & Rent

191.0

194.8

197.9

201.1

204.1

207.1

209.9

211.6

212.5

Fin. & Insurance

386.8

392.9

394.6

397.3

400.4

403.8

408.1

413.2

419.3

1311.8

1337.4

1366.9

1386.5

1402.0

1420.3

1438.5

1458.7

1480.7

159.5

158.3

156.5

155.8

154.8

152.8

149.0

146.3

144.7

Health Services

1152.2

1179.1

1210.4

1230.8

1247.2

1267.5

1289.5

1312.4

1336.1

Leisure & Hospitality

1256.2

1285.0

1309.8

1330.6

1341.4

1345.7

1348.8

1349.5

1349.8

367.6

370.9

373.3

376.3

377.5

378.3

379.0

381.4

382.8

1109.1

1122.4

1138.9

1139.1

1148.0

1157.1

1164.2

1171.1

1175.8

Federal Gov't.

131.7

129.8

135.5

128.5

128.5

128.6

129.0

129.5

129.8

State & Local Gov't

977.4

992.6

1003.4

1010.6

1019.5

1028.5

1035.2

1041.6

1045.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

2025

2026

9939.4 10057.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F lorida T ables

Table 4. Employment Annual 2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

10154.3 10244.0 10352.7 10468.7 10612.5 10761.7 10884.1 10996.6 11119.2

11246.9

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

385.4

382.9

380.1

377.5

374.8

371.5

368.1

365.8

364.4

363.5

Durable Goods

272.6

271.2

269.5

268.1

266.5

264.2

262.0

260.7

260.3

260.2

Wood Products

20.4

20.8

21.3

21.6

21.6

21.4

21.4

21.7

22.1

22.8

Computer & Electronics

44.0

44.0

43.9

43.9

43.9

43.9

43.9

43.9

44.0

44.2

Transportation Equipment

41.1

40.6

40.1

39.7

39.3

38.7

38.0

37.7

37.6

37.3

112.8

111.7

110.6

109.5

108.3

107.2

106.1

105.1

104.2

103.3

33.9

33.7

33.6

33.5

33.4

33.3

33.2

33.0

32.9

32.8

9768.9

9861.1

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

Construction

704.5

708.8

722.6

740.0

763.2

781.5

799.7

822.1

841.5

860.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

309.2

308.7

309.2

308.6

308.9

308.7

308.1

306.3

303.8

301.0

Wholesale Trade

389.6

387.2

385.1

383.9

384.3

384.7

384.2

382.9

381.5

380.3

Retail Trade

1215.3

1221.9

1227.1

1235.0

1248.7

1259.9

1271.3

1281.3

1296.4

1311.2

Information

154.4

156.5

159.2

161.7

164.1

166.7

169.6

172.7

176.4

180.0

1932.8

1978.9

2027.5

2064.9

2121.2

2183.8

2225.7

2259.8

2298.1

2343.5

1086.0

1114.8

1147.9

1169.5

1208.8

1255.7

1285.2

1304.3

1327.9

1359.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

733.7

751.8

768.0

784.2

801.6

817.6

830.4

845.7

860.6

875.0

Mgmt. of Co.

113.1

112.4

111.6

111.2

110.9

110.5

110.1

109.9

109.7

109.5

Financial Activities

637.3

641.1

645.0

650.7

657.6

663.8

669.2

674.5

680.0

685.7

Real Estate & Rent

213.0

213.0

213.5

214.9

216.6

218.0

219.2

220.8

222.7

224.4

Fin. & Insurance

424.3

428.1

431.4

435.8

440.9

445.8

450.0

453.6

457.3

461.3

1502.8

1521.6

1541.2

1561.6

1584.7

1610.4

1631.8

1649.9

1665.8

1682.1

143.0

141.3

141.0

141.6

141.9

142.4

142.8

143.2

143.7

144.3

Health Services

1359.8

1380.2

1400.2

1420.0

1442.8

1467.9

1489.0

1506.8

1522.1

1537.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1354.3

1361.3

1369.4

1377.2

1391.5

1404.3

1417.6

1428.3

1444.4

1458.5

382.8

382.8

383.9

386.3

388.6

391.1

394.0

396.7

399.3

402.1

1180.5

1187.1

1197.0

1215.9

1219.5

1229.9

1239.5

1250.8

1262.2

1273.2

130.0

132.1

135.0

146.4

142.9

146.1

149.1

152.2

155.5

158.7

1050.5

1055.0

1062.0

1069.5

1076.5

1083.8

1090.5

1098.7

1106.8

1114.5

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

22

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

9972.5 10091.2 10237.7 10390.2 10516.1 10630.8 10754.7 10883.4


F lorida T ables

Table 4. Employment Annual 2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

11358.2 11471.0 11597.6 11739.0 11889.6 12038.5 12204.8 12382.8 12561.5 12728.1

Manufacturing

361.9

360.6

359.1

357.5

356.2

354.3

352.6

350.6

347.9

343.8

Durable Goods

259.6

259.2

258.7

258.3

257.8

256.7

255.7

254.7

253.1

250.1

Wood Products

23.3

23.8

24.2

24.7

25.1

25.0

24.9

24.9

24.7

24.3

Computer & Electronics

44.5

44.7

44.9

45.3

45.6

46.0

46.5

46.9

47.4

47.8

Transportation Equipment

36.8

36.4

35.8

35.3

34.7

33.9

33.1

32.7

32.1

31.3

102.3

101.3

100.3

99.3

98.4

97.6

96.9

95.9

94.8

93.7

32.7

32.6

32.4

32.3

32.3

32.2

32.2

32.1

31.8

31.6

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

10996.2 11110.4

11238.6 11381.5 11533.4 11684.2 11852.3 12032.1 12213.6 12384.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

Construction

878.0

893.2

911.9

928.5

947.6

966.3

987.0

1015.7

1042.6

1066.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

297.2

294.0

290.9

288.2

285.3

282.7

280.1

277.6

275.2

273.3

Wholesale Trade

378.2

376.5

375.2

375.4

376.9

380.0

384.0

388.9

394.5

400.2

Retail Trade

1324.9

1339.0

1353.4

1366.9

1383.0

1393.6

1408.3

1422.2

1433.8

1445.6

Information

183.0

185.8

188.4

190.9

194.3

198.3

201.8

205.0

207.3

209.6

2382.1

2418.5

2462.1

2510.5

2568.3

2627.5

2695.7

2772.5

2853.9

2926.5

1384.7

1407.5

1438.6

1473.3

1513.5

1554.7

1605.6

1665.9

1727.3

1778.1

Prof. Sci & Tech

888.2

902.0

914.6

928.5

946.3

964.3

981.6

998.0

1017.9

1039.7

Mgmt. of Co.

109.2

109.1

108.9

108.6

108.5

108.5

108.6

108.7

108.7

108.7

Financial Activities

690.2

695.5

700.3

706.0

712.5

719.1

725.4

731.9

739.2

747.0

Real Estate & Rent

225.8

227.4

228.6

230.2

232.0

233.2

234.3

235.3

236.0

236.7

Fin. & Insurance

464.5

468.1

471.7

475.8

480.5

485.8

491.1

496.6

503.1

510.3

1696.1

1713.9

1731.6

1754.9

1779.9

1804.3

1827.4

1847.7

1868.3

1887.8

144.9

145.6

146.3

146.9

147.7

148.6

149.3

149.3

148.9

148.2

Health Services

1551.3

1568.3

1585.3

1608.0

1632.3

1655.7

1678.0

1698.4

1719.4

1739.6

Leisure & Hospitality

1473.2

1487.4

1504.1

1518.7

1535.0

1547.4

1563.2

1575.1

1586.9

1598.7

403.8

405.8

408.3

410.6

413.2

415.5

417.6

420.2

423.1

426.3

1284.3

1295.5

1307.3

1325.8

1332.3

1344.6

1356.8

1370.5

1384.1

1398.0

161.9

165.0

167.9

177.1

174.0

177.6

180.3

183.9

187.3

190.7

1122.4

1130.6

1139.4

1148.7

1158.3

1167.0

1176.5

1186.6

1196.9

1207.3

Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F lorida T ables

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

990.5 1005.7 1020.5 1037.1 1052.9 1068.9 1085.1 1102.8 1118.0 1133.4 1147.8 1163.6

Wages & Salaries

456.0

464.1

471.9

481.5

489.6

498.0

505.9

514.4

522.0

529.7

537.0

544.2

Other Labor Income

97.4

98.4

99.5

100.6

101.5

102.5

103.5

105.1

106.3

107.5

108.6

110.2

Nonfarm

56.6

57.7

58.8

59.9

60.5

61.0

62.0

62.9

63.5

64.2

64.9

65.6

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

249.3

254.0

258.2

261.7

266.7

271.4

276.6

281.4

286.1

290.7

294.8

299.1

Transfer Payments

197.7

199.5

201.5

204.6

207.1

209.5

211.6

215.2

217.4

219.7

222.0

225.7

71.2

72.6

73.9

75.8

76.8

77.9

79.0

80.7

81.8

82.9

84.0

85.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

892.4

901.9

912.4

925.2

936.5

947.0

957.8

969.3

978.2

986.8

994.0 1002.1

Wages & Salaries

410.9

416.2

421.9

429.6

435.5

441.2

446.6

452.1

456.7

461.2

465.0

468.7

Other Labor Income

87.7

88.3

88.9

89.7

90.2

90.8

91.4

92.4

93.0

93.6

94.0

94.9

Nonfarm

51.0

51.7

52.6

53.5

53.8

54.1

54.7

55.3

55.6

55.9

56.2

56.5

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

Property Income

224.7

227.7

230.8

233.5

237.2

240.5

244.1

247.4

250.4

253.1

255.4

257.6

Transfer Payments

178.1

178.9

180.1

182.5

184.2

185.6

186.8

189.2

190.2

191.3

192.3

194.4

64.1

65.1

66.1

67.6

68.3

69.0

69.7

70.9

71.5

72.2

72.8

73.9

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1406.0 1429.9 1444.1 1452.5 1453.5 1460.8 1469.8 1476.5 1473.8 1477.4 1484.9 1485.2 Retail Sales (Billions $)

341.7

339.0

337.5

337.9

339.7

343.4

349.1

356.8

364.8

373.7

382.8

391.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

307.9

304.0

301.7

301.4

302.1

304.2

308.2

313.6

319.2

325.4

331.5

336.7

*Quarterly at an annual rate

24

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida T ables

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

691.4

728.1

773.3

793.1

798.9

853.3

900.6

944.4

997.9

Wages & Salaries

320.9

322.9

332.5

346.3

358.4

378.7

403.9

430.4

460.2

Other Labor Income

73.3

76.6

75.2

78.2

81.3

82.8

88.5

93.2

97.9

Nonfarm

29.1

36.4

39.2

39.6

38.7

45.4

50.6

53.3

57.2

0.9

1.2

0.9

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.8

1.8

0.9

Property Income

175.9

187.3

211.5

217.2

211.7

230.6

235.3

238.6

251.3

Transfer Payments

138.6

151.6

157.8

156.3

161.3

171.4

180.3

190.5

198.6

50.0

50.7

46.7

48.8

56.8

60.1

63.3

66.9

71.9

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

693.5

724.4

749.3

755.3

750.8

789.3

830.6

862.3

896.5

Wages & Salaries

321.8

321.3

322.2

329.8

336.8

350.3

372.5

393.0

413.4

Other Labor Income

73.5

76.2

72.8

74.5

76.4

76.6

81.7

85.1

88.0

Nonfarm

29.2

36.2

38.0

37.7

36.4

42.0

46.6

48.7

51.4

0.9

1.2

0.9

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.6

0.9

Property Income

176.4

186.3

204.9

206.8

199.0

213.3

217.0

217.9

225.8

Transfer Payments

139.0

150.8

152.9

148.8

151.5

158.5

166.3

173.9

178.4

50.1

50.5

45.3

46.5

53.4

55.6

58.4

61.1

64.6

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

707.0

810.5

879.8

1006.9

1101.0

1224.2

1337.3

1352.3

1409.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

231.9

245.4

265.5

279.6

294.5

310.6

320.1

330.2

339.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

232.6

244.1

257.3

266.3

276.7

287.3

295.3

301.5

305.4

Farm

Social Insurance

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F lorida T ables

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1061.0

1125.5

1187.1

1250.6

1315.7

1383.9

1454.2

1525.2

1596.7

Wages & Salaries

493.8

525.8

555.8

587.6

621.6

656.4

691.0

727.2

764.8

Other Labor Income

102.0

106.9

112.1

117.3

122.3

127.7

133.1

138.9

145.4

60.9

63.9

66.8

70.1

73.8

77.7

81.5

85.2

89.2

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

269.1

288.3

305.4

320.8

334.6

349.1

364.4

378.2

389.3

Transfer Payments

208.2

218.6

229.9

242.9

256.9

272.5

289.7

307.6

326.3

77.4

82.4

87.4

92.9

98.3

104.4

110.6

117.0

123.4

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

941.6

982.1

1013.8

1044.8

1075.2

1106.5

1138.5

1170.0

1201.0

Wages & Salaries

438.2

458.8

474.7

490.9

508.0

524.8

541.0

557.8

575.2

Other Labor Income

90.5

93.3

95.7

98.0

99.9

102.1

104.2

106.6

109.3

Nonfarm

54.0

55.7

57.1

58.6

60.3

62.1

63.8

65.4

67.1

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

238.8

251.5

260.8

268.0

273.4

279.1

285.3

290.1

292.8

Transfer Payments

184.8

190.7

196.3

203.0

210.0

217.9

226.8

236.0

245.4

68.7

71.9

74.7

77.6

80.4

83.4

86.6

89.7

92.8

1459.2

1478.2

1497.5

1495.5

1491.6

1501.9

1520.6

1529.8

1544.1

Retail Sales (Billions $)

342.5

369.5

400.1

414.9

431.2

453.1

473.1

491.6

513.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

304.0

322.4

341.7

346.6

352.4

362.3

370.4

377.2

385.9

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

26

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida T ables

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1670.2

1749.3

1838.5

1930.6

2030.2

2134.5

2242.0

2357.2

2477.5

2601.9

Wages & Salaries

802.1

841.1

884.8

930.9

982.2

1035.6

1089.3

1145.1

1204.3

1266.8

Other Labor Income

152.0

158.9

166.5

174.3

183.1

193.2

203.0

212.5

222.3

232.7

93.5

98.7

105.1

111.7

118.9

126.1

134.1

143.0

152.6

162.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

402.2

417.2

435.6

454.6

474.4

495.2

517.0

543.5

570.8

597.9

Transfer Payments

345.4

365.1

385.5

405.8

426.6

448.4

471.7

495.8

520.4

545.6

Social Insurance

130.3

137.1

144.5

152.4

161.0

170.1

179.5

189.5

200.0

210.9

Nonfarm Farm

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

1232.6

1264.9

1301.1

1337.0

1375.8

1415.3

1454.5

1496.1

1538.2

1580.3

Wages & Salaries

592.0

608.2

626.2

644.7

665.6

686.6

706.7

726.8

747.8

769.4

Other Labor Income

112.2

114.9

117.8

120.7

124.1

128.1

131.7

134.9

138.0

141.3

69.0

71.3

74.4

77.3

80.6

83.6

87.0

90.8

94.7

98.8

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

296.8

301.7

308.3

314.8

321.5

328.3

335.4

344.9

354.4

363.2

Transfer Payments

254.9

264.0

272.8

281.1

289.1

297.3

306.0

314.7

323.1

331.4

96.2

99.2

102.3

105.5

109.1

112.8

116.4

120.3

124.2

128.1

1559.9

1569.2

1588.2

1615.1

1656.6

1678.6

1695.6

1735.2

1763.2

1801.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

537.3

560.5

582.7

606.4

632.9

660.3

688.4

718.1

750.3

784.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

396.5

405.3

412.4

419.9

428.9

437.8

446.6

455.8

465.9

476.3

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F lorida T ables

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2729.1

2866.0

3013.0

3167.4

3330.2

3497.8

3675.2

3865.9

4067.0

4274.1

Wages & Salaries

1330.6

1398.0

1470.0

1546.4

1630.0

1717.4

1811.6

1912.5

2020.0

2131.6

Other Labor Income

243.9

256.1

268.7

282.1

296.6

310.8

326.4

342.8

359.8

377.5

Nonfarm

173.1

184.2

196.5

209.4

222.7

236.5

251.4

267.3

283.7

300.9

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

624.8

655.6

689.7

725.7

761.4

798.5

836.5

878.5

922.7

968.2

Transfer Payments

571.6

599.1

628.2

657.7

688.5

719.8

751.7

785.6

820.6

856.0

Social Insurance

222.2

234.6

247.9

261.9

277.4

293.8

311.4

329.9

349.3

369.7

Farm

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

1621.4

1665.4

1712.2

1760.3

1809.9

1858.9

1909.8

1964.0

2020.1

2075.4

Wages & Salaries

790.5

812.3

835.3

859.4

885.9

912.7

941.4

971.6

1003.3

1035.0

Other Labor Income

144.9

148.8

152.7

156.8

161.2

165.2

169.6

174.2

178.7

183.3

Nonfarm

102.8

107.1

111.6

116.4

121.0

125.7

130.6

135.8

140.9

146.1

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

371.2

380.9

391.9

403.3

413.8

424.3

434.7

446.3

458.3

470.1

Transfer Payments

339.6

348.1

357.0

365.6

374.2

382.6

390.6

399.1

407.6

415.7

Social Insurance

132.0

136.3

140.9

145.6

150.8

156.2

161.8

167.6

173.5

179.5

1832.7

1871.6

1901.7

1938.7

1989.5

2034.3

2077.6

2125.8

2167.6

2211.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

818.4

854.3

891.2

929.6

971.7

1016.7

1063.2

1110.7

1161.8

1218.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

486.3

496.4

506.4

516.6

528.1

540.3

552.5

564.3

577.1

591.5

Farm

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

28

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida C harts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(%)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F lorida C harts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

30

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida C harts

Florida Federal Government Employment 200.0

(Thousands)

180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida Financial Activities Employment 750.0

(Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F lorida C harts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

32

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida C harts

Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1700.0

(Thousands)

1520.0 1340.0 1160.0 980.0 800.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


F lorida C harts

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

34

(percent ch. year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida C harts

Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)

9% 4% -1% -5% -10%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3000.0

(Thousands)

2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


F lorida C harts

Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 36

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


F lorida C harts

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population (Thousands)

30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046

Florida Employment 13000.0

(Thousands)

12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Wage & Salary Employment Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


F lorida N ews S ummaries

Infighting threatens sale of Florida marijuana dispensary • Aphria, a Canadian publicly traded cannabis conglomerate, and South Florida’s Delavaco Group announced a planned acquisition of Chestnut Hill Tree Farm.

• Aphria’s deal to buy Florida cannabis cultivation and distribution license, one of seven in the state, has been valued at $177 million.

• An agreement was reached by Aphria, Delavaco, and Chestnut Hill Tree Hill Farm to turn over CHT Medical’s operations in exchange for $60 million; the deal was later postponed due to infighting.

Source: Miami Herald, April 27, 2017

AAA: Florida gas prices reach 20-month high but headed lower • The average per-gallon price of unleaded gas in Florida was $2.46 in the month of April.

• Gas prices are expected to drop following the drop in crude oil below $50 a barrel. • The drop in oil prices comes amid pessimism that OPEC will extend its November agreement to support higher prices and production cuts.

Source: Sun Sentinel, April 24, 2017

Wal-Mart bolsters area footprint with two new warehouses, 2,000 jobs • Wal-Mart said it will hire about 450 workers for the new 650,000-square-foot, $145 million Cocoa distribution center.

• Wal-Mart received about $12.5 million in economic incentives from Polk County for warehouse facilities in Cocoa and Davenport.

• Also, Wal-Mart received another $850,000 in target industry tax credits from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 23, 2017

38

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Florida jobless rate drops to 4.5 percent as expanding companies scramble to find more workers • Florida’s unemployment rate fell from 4.8 percent in March to 4.5 percent in April, the lowest rate since November of 2007. • Florida’s unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national unemployment rate, which comes in at 4.4 percent.

• The Tampa area leads Florida in job openings, adding 2,300 jobs since March 2017 and 33,400 since April of 2016.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 17, 2017

Florida ranks fourth in drawing private equity dollars • In 2016, $41.8 billion in funds were invested into 219 Florida-based companies, supporting 33,733 jobs.

• Florida ranked fourth in the nation for the number of companies receiving investment, following California, Texas, and New York. • Nationally, there was more than $644 billion invested in U.S. companies in 2016, with 60 percent of that capital going to information technology and business services.

Source: Miami Herald, June 1, 2017


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 5.3 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $37,300. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 16,382.98 million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.1 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.3 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.9 percent annually. The Education and Health Services and Financial sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. No sector is expected to experience a decline.

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Daytona State College – 1,568

Daytona properties with unpaid fines could face foreclosure

QUICK FACTS:

• Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 297,359 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,649 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Halifax Health – 4,709

• County of Volusia – 3,341

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

• Daytona has plans to crack down on unpaid code violation fine payments that go back as far as 1997, totaling $4.46 million across 395 cases. A large portion of those who owe fines must pay ten thousand or more. If fines continue to be left unpaid, properties may be foreclosed. • Daytona Beach has also ramped up code enforcement efforts in other areas such as proper rental property licensing and rundown buildings.

• City Commissioner Aaron Delgado said, “People will see that we’re serious, and hopefully they’ll pay their fines and make repairs. We won’t tolerate people who just let liens back up and do nothing.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 14, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

International Speedway Corp. reports rise in revenues, earnings

• International Speedway Corp. saw a total of $147.9 million in revenues in the first quarter of 2017, which is an increase of $5.3 million compared to the first quarter of 2016. The first quarter of 2017 also resulted in $21.3 million in net income, which is an increase of $1.5 million compared to quarter one of 2016.

• This increase can be attributed to increased sales in food and beverage, merchandise, and tickets, along with sponsorships and broadcasting revenue. • Ticket sales have decreased compared to the same time one year ago by approximately $520,000. International Speedway Corp CFO Greg Motto believes attendance was influenced by unfavorable weather at “support events leading up to the Daytona 500.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 4, 2017

March unemployment rate falls in Volusia, Flagler

• The unemployment rate in Volusia County stood at 4.5% in March of 2017, falling from 5% at the same time last year. Excluding agriculture, a total of 7,772 jobs were added to the area in the last year. • In Flagler County, the unemployment rate was 4.8% in March of 2017, compared to 5.5% in March of 2016. Excluding agriculture, a total of 1,469 jobs were added to the area in the last year.

• While the leisure and hospitality and information industries lost jobs, other industries gained jobs – especially in trade, transportation and utilities and education and health services.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 21, 2017

40

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Property values on the rise in Volusia, Flagler

• Property values in Volusia and Flagler Counties are forecasted to see a great increase, especially in Volusia. • An 8.1% increase in property value is expected to occur in Volusia County during 2017, a $3.8 million increase in value. In Flagler County, values are expected to increase by 4.9%.

• Larry Bartlett, a property appraiser in Volusia, stated, “I think we’re back from where we were in residential prices. Actually, we’re sort of going beyond where the typical 4.65-percent annual raise would take us …”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, June 3, 2017 Volusia hotel occupancy rises in April

• Hotel occupancy rose by approximately 9% compared to April of last year in Volusia County.

• In addition to the occupancy rate, average daily hotel room rates and revenue earned per room has also improved in April compared to the same time last year. The average room rate increased by 6% and revenue per room increased by 15%.

• Evelyn Fine, president of Mid-Florida Marketing & Research, said, “We had a terrific month. With Easter coming in April, we knew it would affect both months, March and April …We did extremely well on family spring vacations in April.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 24, 2017


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1.0

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Deltona Payroll Employment

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

19 -5.8 6.2 12.7

19.7 3.9 6.3 13.4

20.5 3.9 6.3 14.1

21 2.8 6.6 14.4

21.4 1.7 6.7 14.7

22.5 5.4 7.1 15.4

23.8 5.7 7.6 16.3

25 4.9 8.1 16.8

26.2 5 8.7 17.5

19 -5

19.6 3.1

19.8 1.1

20 1

20.1 0.3

20.8 3.7

22 5.4

22.8 3.8

23.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

32.1 32.2

33.3 33.2

34.5 33.4

35.2 33.6

35.5 33.3

36.8 34

38.1 35.1

39 35.6

40.2 36.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.4 -0.5

36.2 2.2

36.3 0.2

37.3 2.9

37.6 0.6

38.6 2.7

39.9 3.3

41.1 3

42.7 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

174.6 -5.5

172.4 -1.3

173.5 0.6

175.2 1

177.9 1.5

182.3 2.5

188.3 3.3

197 4.6

202.8 3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 -14.7

8.4 -2.9

9.1 7.7

9.3 2.7

9.8 5.8

10.5 6.3

10.9 4.2

11.5 5.5

11.6 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

166 -5

164 -1.2

164.4 0.3

165.9 0.9

168 1.3

171.9 2.3

177.4 3.2

185.5 4.6

191.2 3.1

10 -22.9

8.8 -11.6

8.2 -6.6

8.5 3.3

9.3 9.8

10.1 8.7

11.2 10.2

12.1 8.2

13.1 8.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.7 -6.6

33.5 -0.7

33.5 0.2

33.8 0.9

33.7 -0.2

34.5 2.4

35.9 3.9

37.2 3.8

38.6 3.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 26.3 2.2

5.1 26.3 2.1

5 26.5 2

4.9 26.8 2.1

4.6 27 2.2

4.5 27.7 2.3

4.8 28.7 2.4

5.1 29.7 2.4

5.2 31.1 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 -6.9

3.2 -8.1

3.1 -4.1

2.9 -5.7

2.8 -5.2

2.6 -5.1

2.6 -1.9

2.5 -1.3

2.5 -2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -8

7.9 0.1

8.1 2

8.4 4.2

8.5 1.2

8.4 -0.8

8.6 2.3

8.7 1.1

8.9 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 -0.1

17.3 -2.1

17.9 3

18.5 3.8

19.4 4.6

20.2 4

21 4.3

23.6 12.2

24.5 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 -0.5

34.1 1.5

34.8 2

34.9 0.5

35.6 1.9

36.3 2.1

37 1.8

38.2 3.3

39.6 3.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24 -4.6

24.1 0.5

25.2 4.3

25.9 3

26.6 2.5

27.9 4.9

29.3 5.1

30.8 5.2

30.9 0.4

9.2 2.9

8.8 -4.1

8.3 -5.7

8.3 0.1

8.3 -0.1

8.4 0.3

8.4 1

8.8 4.9

9.2 4.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -0.1

1.7 6.8

1.4 -17

1.3 -8.3

1.3 -1.9

1.3 2

1.3 1.2

1.4 3.1

1.4 1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 -5

24.6 -1.1

24 -2.1

23.2 -3.3

22.5 -3

22.1 -1.8

22.1 -0.1

22.1 0

22.4 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

589.7 -0.1

590.8 0.2

592.6 0.3

596.7 0.7

602.7 1

612.3 1.6

625.2 2.1

639.4 2.3

652.6 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

278.2 -0.4

279.5 0.5

279.7 0.1

279.5 -0.1

279.6 0

281.2 0.6

282 0.3

290.5 3

298.7 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

42

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.3

12.3

11.3

9.5

8.2

6.9

5.9

5.2

4.5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

874 770 104

1001 849 152

1179 660 519

1010 993 17

1894 1655 239

1931 1763 168

2087 1930 158

2130 1673 458

3301 2176 1125

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

27.7 5.5 9.3 18.4

29.2 5.6 9.9 19.3

30.7 5.2 10.4 20.3

32.3 5.1 11 21.3

33.9 5 11.7 22.2

35.5 4.9 12.3 23.2

37.3 4.9 13 24.3

39 4.7 13.7 25.4

40.8 4.5 14.4 26.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 3.9

25.3 3.5

26.1 2.9

26.8 2.9

27.5 2.6

28.2 2.5

29 2.6

29.7 2.4

30.3 2.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

41.7 36.9

43.5 37.7

45.1 38.3

46.9 38.9

48.6 39.4

50.3 39.9

52.1 40.5

53.9 40.9

55.7 41.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 4.2

46.5 4.5

48.5 4.3

50.7 4.6

53 4.6

55.4 4.5

57.8 4.3

60.2 4.2

62.7 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

207.6 2.3

211 1.7

213.8 1.3

216.3 1.2

219 1.3

221.5 1.1

223.4 0.9

225.6 1

227.8 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 1

11.9 1.4

12.1 1.4

12.2 0.8

12.2 0.7

12.3 0.4

12.3 0.4

12.4 0.4

12.4 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

195.8 2.4

199.1 1.7

201.7 1.3

204.1 1.2

206.8 1.3

209.2 1.2

211.1 0.9

213.3 1

215.3 1

14 6.9

14.7 5

15.1 2.7

15.6 2.8

16 3.1

16.5 2.7

16.9 2.3

17.2 1.8

17.3 0.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38.8 0.4

38.9 0.3

38.9 0.1

39 0.2

39.1 0.2

39.1 0.1

39.1 -0.1

39.2 0.2

39.2 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 31.6 2.6

5.5 31.8 2.6

5.6 31.9 2.6

5.6 32 2.6

5.7 31.9 2.6

5.8 31.9 2.6

5.8 31.8 2.6

5.8 31.8 2.6

5.9 31.9 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 1.6

2.5 0.8

2.6 1.3

2.6 1

2.6 1.3

2.7 1.6

2.7 1.4

2.7 1

2.8 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 2.5

9.3 1.3

9.3 0.8

9.4 1

9.5 1.1

9.6 1

9.7 0.9

9.8 0.9

9.9 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.8 5.4

26.9 4.2

27.4 1.9

28.1 2.4

29 3.3

30 3.1

30.6 2.1

31.3 2.4

32.2 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 2

41.1 1.7

42 2.2

42.7 1.7

43.3 1.5

44 1.6

44.7 1.7

45.6 1.9

46.5 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 2.8

32.1 1

32.4 1.1

32.8 1.1

32.9 0.5

32.9 0

32.9 -0.1

32.8 -0.4

32.6 -0.4

9.4 1.8

9.4 0.4

9.5 0.2

9.5 0.5

9.5 0.2

9.5 -0.1

9.5 -0.1

9.5 0.4

9.5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -3.5

1.3 -1.7

1.4 9.3

1.3 -9

1.3 0.2

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.5

1.3 0.4

1.3 0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 0.9

22.8 1

23 0.9

23.2 0.7

23.4 0.9

23.6 0.9

23.7 0.6

23.9 0.5

23.9 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

662.7 1.5

671.4 1.3

680.1 1.3

688.8 1.3

697.5 1.3

706.3 1.3

715.2 1.3

724.2 1.3

733.3 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

301 0.8

304.5 1.2

309.6 1.7

314.8 1.7

320 1.7

325 1.6

329 1.2

332.2 1

335.9 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

5

5.2

4916 3444 1472

5603 3993 1611

5760 4052 1708

5980 4240 1740

6084 4348 1736

6140 4443 1698

6253 4576 1677

6057 4406 1652

5893 4233 1660

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

42.7 4.5 15.1 27.6

44.7 4.8 15.9 28.8

47.1 5.4 16.8 30.3

49.6 5.2 17.8 31.8

52.3 5.4 18.9 33.3

55.1 5.3 20.1 35

57.9 5.2 21.3 36.7

61.1 5.4 22.5 38.6

64.3 5.3 23.8 40.5

67.7 5.2 25.2 42.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 2.4

31.9 2.8

33 3.4

34.1 3.2

35.2 3.3

36.3 3.3

37.5 3.2

38.7 3.3

40 3.3

41.3 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

57.5 41.8

59.5 42.5

62.1 43.5

64.6 44.4

67.4 45.4

70.2 46.3

73.1 47.3

76.2 48.3

79.4 49.4

82.6 50.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

65.3 4.1

68.3 4.5

71.6 4.9

75.1 4.8

78.8 5

82.6 4.9

86.6 4.8

90.9 4.9

95.3 4.8

99.8 4.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

229.6 0.8

231.4 0.8

233.7 1

236 1

239 1.3

242 1.2

244.4 1

246.6 0.9

248.9 0.9

251.3 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 0.3

12.4 -0.6

12.3 -0.5

12.3 -0.4

12.2 -0.5

12.1 -0.7

12 -0.8

12 -0.5

12 -0.2

11.9 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

217.1 0.8

219 0.9

221.3 1.1

223.7 1.1

226.8 1.4

229.9 1.3

232.4 1.1

234.6 1

237 1

239.3 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 0.1

17.3 -0.4

17.5 1.4

17.9 2.1

18.4 2.8

18.7 2

19.1 1.9

19.5 2.4

19.9 2

20.3 1.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

39.3 0.3

39.5 0.4

39.5 0.2

39.6 0.2

39.9 0.6

40.1 0.5

40.2 0.4

40.3 0.3

40.5 0.4

40.7 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.9 32 2.7

5.9 32.1 2.7

5.9 32.2 2.7

5.9 32.3 2.7

5.9 32.7 2.7

5.9 32.9 2.7

5.9 33.2 2.7

5.9 33.3 2.7

5.9 33.6 2.7

5.9 33.9 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 1

2.8 1.4

2.9 1.8

2.9 1.7

3 1.6

3 1.7

3.1 1.8

3.1 1.9

3.2 2.1

3.3 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10 0.8

10 0.5

10.1 0.6

10.2 0.9

10.3 1.1

10.4 0.9

10.4 0.8

10.5 0.7

10.6 0.7

10.7 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 1.9

33.5 2.1

34.3 2.4

34.9 1.6

35.7 2.4

36.7 2.6

37.2 1.5

37.6 1.2

38.1 1.3

38.7 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.5 2

48.3 1.8

49.1 1.6

49.9 1.6

50.8 1.8

51.7 1.9

52.6 1.6

53.3 1.3

53.9 1.2

54.5 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

32.6 0

32.7 0.3

32.8 0.3

32.9 0.3

33.2 0.8

33.4 0.6

33.6 0.7

33.8 0.5

34.1 0.8

34.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -0.2

9.5 0

9.6 0.4

9.6 0.7

9.7 0.7

9.8 0.7

9.9 0.8

9.9 0.7

10 0.6

10.1 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 0

1.4 2.7

1.4 3.9

1.6 10.4

1.6 -0.5

1.6 3.8

1.7 3.7

1.7 3.7

1.8 3.8

1.9 3.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24 0.3

24 0.2

24.2 0.4

24.3 0.5

24.4 0.5

24.5 0.5

24.6 0.4

24.8 0.5

24.9 0.5

25 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

742.5 1.3

751.2 1.2

759.5 1.1

767.7 1.1

775.8 1.1

784.2 1.1

792.7 1.1

801.4 1.1

810.4 1.1

819.5 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

339.7 1.1

344.1 1.3

349 1.4

354 1.4

358.9 1.4

363.9 1.4

369 1.4

374.1 1.4

379.6 1.5

385.1 1.5

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5745 4101 1644

5632 4007 1625

5780 4151 1628

5825 4171 1653

5928 4269 1659

5650 3992 1658

5821 4174 1647

6027 4386 1641

6004 4376 1628

6019 4442 1577


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

71.2 5.2 26.6 44.6

75 5.3 28.1 46.8

79.1 5.5 29.8 49.3

83.4 5.4 31.5 51.8

87.8 5.3 33.4 54.4

92.4 5.3 35.3 57.1

97.5 5.5 37.5 60

103 5.6 39.9 63.1

108.7 5.6 42.3 66.4

114.7 5.5 44.9 69.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.5 3.1

43.9 3.2

45.4 3.4

46.9 3.3

48.4 3.2

50 3.2

51.7 3.4

53.5 3.5

55.4 3.5

57.3 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

85.9 51.3

89.4 52.4

93.3 53.5

97.2 54.7

101.1 55.8

105.3 57

110.1 58.4

115.3 59.9

120.9 61.6

126.7 63.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

104.6 4.8

109.6 4.8

115 4.9

120.5 4.8

126.2 4.7

132.1 4.7

138.4 4.7

145.1 4.8

152.1 4.8

159.4 4.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

253.4 0.8

255.5 0.9

257.9 0.9

260.5 1

263.3 1.1

266.3 1.1

270 1.4

273.8 1.4

277.3 1.3

280.7 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 -0.3

11.9 -0.3

11.8 -0.3

11.8 -0.3

11.8 -0.3

11.7 -0.4

11.7 -0.4

11.6 -0.5

11.5 -0.7

11.4 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

241.5 0.9

243.6 0.9

246.1 1

248.7 1.1

251.6 1.1

254.6 1.2

258.3 1.5

262.2 1.5

265.8 1.4

269.3 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

20.6 1.6

20.9 1.3

21.2 1.6

21.5 1.4

21.9 1.6

22.2 1.6

22.6 1.6

23.1 2.5

23.6 2.3

24.1 2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

40.8 0.3

41 0.4

41.1 0.4

41.2 0.3

41.4 0.5

41.6 0.4

42 0.9

42.3 0.8

42.6 0.7

43 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.9 34.2 2.7

5.9 34.5 2.7

5.9 34.8 2.6

5.9 35 2.6

6 35.4 2.6

6 35.6 2.6

6.1 36.1 2.6

6.3 36.4 2.6

6.4 36.7 2.6

6.5 37.1 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 1.7

3.4 1.6

3.4 1.4

3.5 1.4

3.5 1.8

3.6 2.3

3.7 2.2

3.8 2

3.8 1.5

3.9 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 0.6

10.8 0.7

10.9 0.6

11 0.7

11 0.8

11.1 0.9

11.3 1

11.4 1

11.5 1.1

11.6 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.2 1.3

39.7 1.2

40.3 1.5

41 1.7

41.8 2

42.7 2.1

43.8 2.6

45 2.8

46.3 2.9

47.6 2.8

55 1

55.7 1.3

56.4 1.3

57.3 1.5

58.2 1.6

59.1 1.6

60.1 1.7

61.1 1.6

61.7 1

62.2 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

34.5 0.7

34.7 0.6

35 0.8

35.2 0.6

35.5 0.7

35.7 0.5

36 0.9

36.2 0.6

36.5 0.9

36.8 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 0.4

10.1 0.5

10.2 0.6

10.2 0.5

10.3 0.5

10.4 0.5

10.4 0.6

10.5 0.6

10.5 0.5

10.6 0.6

1.9 3.6

2 3.5

2.1 3.3

2.2 7.5

2.2 -0.7

2.3 3.6

2.4 3.1

2.4 3.6

2.5 3.5

2.6 3.4

25.1 0.5

25.3 0.5

25.4 0.6

25.6 0.7

25.8 0.7

25.9 0.7

26.2 0.9

26.4 0.9

26.6 0.8

26.8 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

828.8 1.1

838.4 1.2

848.1 1.2

857.9 1.2

867.7 1.1

877.3 1.1

885.3 0.9

893 0.9

899.3 0.7

905.9 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

390.5 1.4

395.8 1.4

401.3 1.4

407.2 1.5

412.9 1.4

418.4 1.3

424 1.3

429.3 1.3

435 1.3

441 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5915 4395 1520

5811 4337 1474

5841 4403 1437

5759 4349 1411

5723 4363 1360

5703 4380 1323

5795 4501 1294

5941 4669 1272

5953 4692 1261

5958 4708 1250

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

26 4.9 8.6 17.4

26.4 4.7 8.8 17.6

26.7 5.3 8.9 17.8

27.1 5.5 9.1 18.1

27.5 5.4 9.2 18.3

27.8 5.5 9.4 18.5

28.2 5.6 9.5 18.7

28.6 5.6 9.6 19

29 5.6 9.8 19.2

29.4 5.7 9.9 19.5

29.7 5.4 10.1 19.7

30.1 5.3 10.2 19.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 3.2

23.6 3

23.9 3.8

24.1 4

24.3 3.9

24.5 3.8

24.8 3.8

25 3.6

25.2 3.6

25.4 3.6

25.6 3.3

25.8 3.1

40 36

40.3 36.1

40.7 36.3

41.1 36.6

41.5 36.8

41.9 37

42.4 37.2

42.8 37.4

43.3 37.6

43.7 37.8

44.1 37.9

44.5 38.1

42.5 4.3

42.8 3.3

43.2 3.4

43.7 3.8

44.2 3.9

44.7 4.4

45.2 4.8

45.7 4.6

46.2 4.6

46.7 4.5

47.2 4.3

47.7 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

202.1 3

203.5 2.3

204.8 3.1

206.1 2.6

207.2 2.5

208.1 2.2

208.8 1.9

209.8 1.8

210.6 1.7

211.4 1.6

212.1 1.6

212.7 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 0.6

11.6 0.4

11.6 0.7

11.7 0.8

11.7 1.1

11.7 1

11.8 1.3

11.8 1.2

11.9 1.2

11.9 1.5

12 1.7

12 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

190.5 3.1

191.9 2.4

193.2 3.2

194.4 2.7

195.5 2.6

196.4 2.3

197 2

198 1.9

198.8 1.7

199.5 1.6

200.1 1.5

200.7 1.3

13 8.9

13.2 7.2

13.4 8.3

13.7 6.2

13.9 7

14.2 7.6

14.3 6.7

14.6 6.5

14.7 5.5

14.8 4.5

14.9 3.8

15 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38.6 4.4

38.7 3.5

38.7 1.8

38.7 0.6

38.8 0.5

38.8 0.4

38.8 0.3

38.9 0.4

38.9 0.4

38.9 0.3

38.9 0.1

38.9 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 31 2.5

5.3 31.2 2.5

5.3 31.3 2.5

5.4 31.5 2.5

5.4 31.6 2.6

5.4 31.6 2.6

5.4 31.7 2.6

5.4 31.8 2.6

5.5 31.8 2.6

5.5 31.9 2.6

5.5 31.8 2.6

5.5 31.9 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -1.8

2.5 -2.4

2.5 -1

2.5 1.5

2.5 2.4

2.5 1.7

2.5 1

2.5 -0.2

2.5 -0.1

2.5 1.1

2.6 2.2

2.6 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 2.2

9 2.9

9 3.2

9.1 3.1

9.1 2.7

9.2 2.3

9.2 1.8

9.2 1.7

9.3 1.4

9.3 1.2

9.3 1.1

9.3 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 4.4

24.7 2.1

25 3.4

25.4 5.3

25.8 5.8

26 5.4

26.2 5

26.6 4.8

26.9 4.3

27.1 4

27.2 3.7

27.2 2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.5 3.4

39.8 2.8

39.9 3.9

40.1 2.3

40.3 2.1

40.5 1.8

40.6 1.7

40.8 1.7

41 1.6

41.2 1.7

41.4 1.8

41.6 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 -0.4

31.1 -0.4

31.4 3.3

31.6 4.2

31.7 3.1

31.8 2.3

31.9 1.6

32 1.1

32 1

32.1 0.9

32.2 0.8

32.3 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 4.8

9.3 4.2

9.3 3.7

9.4 2.3

9.4 2.1

9.4 1.6

9.4 1.1

9.5 0.8

9.5 0.6

9.4 0.3

9.4 0

9.5 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 4.5

1.4 0.6

1.4 -0.2

1.4 -2.4

1.3 -3.4

1.3 -4.2

1.3 -4

1.3 -6.4

1.3 -3.1

1.3 0

1.4 2.7

1.3 4.2

22.4 1.1

22.4 1

22.5 1.7

22.5 1

22.6 1

22.6 0.8

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.7

22.8 0.9

22.9 1.1

22.9 1.3

23 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

651.3 2.1

654.2 2

656.8 1.9

659.3 1.7

661.5 1.6

663.8 1.5

666 1.4

668.2 1.4

670.4 1.3

672.5 1.3

674.7 1.3

676.8 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

299 3.4

299.3 2.6

299.5 1.9

300 1

300.6 0.5

301.3 0.7

302.1 0.9

302.9 1

303.9 1.1

305 1.2

306.3 1.4

307.6 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

46

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4

4

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

3040 1974 1065

3556 2335 1221

4063 2703 1360

4449 3034 1415

4818 3331 1488

5074 3608 1466

5322 3805 1517

5534 3985 1549

5615 3990 1625

5628 4003 1625

5635 3992 1643

5691 4003 1688

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


G aines v ille

PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 142,605 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,916 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.7 percent growth, the fifth lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $40,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $52,500. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11,321.88 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.7 percent annually, the third lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.9 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.4 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Local artisan-aimed app debuts May 1

• After the launch of a new online platform, local Gainesville artisans will have a place to showcase their talents and connect to the public. Talents range from baking to painting and will help connect people who are interested in what is being offered. • This new platform will make it easier for unique artisans, like custom furniture designers, to sell their products and services. The site will help connect users to artisans’ websites and is focused on bringing the people to the artisan in the easiest way possible. • All of the different groups involved in this new online platform have the same end goal: empowering local makers.

Source: Gainesville Sun, April 23, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


G aines v ille

Eateries slated for Celebration Pointe, The Park Avenue

• Several new restaurants will be open in the fall for the grand opening of Celebration Pointe’s first phase. One is Rascal Flatts Bar & Grill, which will serve food picked out by the band and will be a venue for live music. This music-stars chain will be alongside others including Jimmy Buffet’s Margaritaville and Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar. • Miller’s Ale House, a Reggae Shack Café, and Kilwins Quality Confections will join the shops at Celebration Point.

• The shops on Park Avenue will soon be home to Taco Del Mar, Bangkok Square, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Baskin Robbins. A Bahama Breeze Island Grille is also set to open a Gainesville location in late July.

Source: Gainesville Sun, June 1, 2017

New subdivisions crowd southwest Alachua County • The outskirts of Gainesville are rapidly growing and developers are planning on several more neighborhoods west of the city. The housing market in this area is extremely hot, and residential development will continue to boom in the future.

• Suggestions have been made to push the urban’s city boundary father west than it currently is. This would significantly help with schools, “who are anticipated to reach maximum capacity shortly”, roadways which are already experiencing major traffic backups, and other infrastructure that will soon be brought up.

Source: Gainesville Sun, May 7, 2017

Micanopy’s YMCA Camp McConnell up for auction

• Since 1968, YMCA of the Palm Beaches has owned and operated YMCA Camp McConnell in Micanopy. The 211-acre property will soon be up for auction, since camper registration has dwindled over the years.

48

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• The camp was intended for residents in Palm Beach County who would take buses to Micanopy and explore a completely different part of Florida. The majority of campers recently had been coming from nearby cities in North Florida instead of Palm Beach. • The camp is comprised of an Olympic size pool, canoeing, and a ropes course and will hopefully continue to operate as a camp or recreational facility under new owners.

Source: Gainesville Sun, May 30, 2017

Full-fledged Whole Foods coming to Gainesville

• Whole Foods, the Austin, Texas based organic grocery store, recently changed track from its initial plans of building a smaller store aimed at young adult shoppers to a full size store at 3490 SW Archer Road in Gainesville. Whole Foods will now take up 40,000 square feet of the 88,813 total square-foot building.

• Gainesville will become one of the first 13 cities to open a Whole Foods targeted to draw in a younger, hurried shopper with lower prices and a quicker shopping experience. Whole Foods will be in the Butler Town Center’s commercial center along with a Regal Cinema and P.F. Chang’s restaurant.

• With more than 465 stores and 91,000 employees in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, Whole Foods is the largest and one of the best known organic and natural food supermarkets.

Source: Gainesville Sun, April 21, 2017


G aines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0

8.0%

14000.0 12000.0

4.0% 2.0%

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 6.0%

2

10000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

170.0

15.0%

(percent change year ago)

10.0%

160.0 150.0

5.0%

140.0

0.0%

130.0 120.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Gainesville Payroll Employment

-5.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


G aines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.8 -3.6 5.2 3.7

9.2 4.4 5.2 4

9.7 5 5.3 4.4

9.7 0.5 5.4 4.3

9.8 1.1 5.6 4.3

10.4 6.1 5.8 4.6

11 5.2 6.1 4.9

11.5 5 6.5 5

12.3 7 7.1 5.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 -2.8

9.2 3.5

9.4 2.3

9.3 -1.3

9.2 -0.2

9.7 4.5

10.1 4.9

10.5 3.9

11.1 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

33.5 33.6

34.8 34.7

36.3 35.2

36.2 34.5

36.4 34.2

38.2 35.4

39.7 36.6

41 37.4

43.4 38.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.3 3

40.8 1.3

41.4 1.4

42.1 1.8

43.1 2.2

44.3 2.9

45.2 2

46.5 3

49.2 5.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

127.4 -4.4

126.7 -0.6

126.7 0

128 1.1

128.9 0.7

131.1 1.7

134.9 2.9

139.3 3.2

144.3 3.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -16

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -0.9

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.2

4.2 -3.5

4.5 5.1

4.7 5.6

4.8 2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

122.7 -3.9

122.3 -0.4

122.3 0

123.6 1.1

124.5 0.7

126.9 1.9

130.4 2.8

134.6 3.2

139.4 3.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9

3.8 -8.7

4.3 10.5

4.4 2.6

4.4 0.6

4.7 7.9

5.1 7.4

5.5 7.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 -6.8

17.9 -1.6

18 1

18.1 0.6

18.3 0.9

18.8 2.6

19.4 3.3

20.3 4.5

21.3 4.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.3 2.4

2.3 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.4

2.7 13.2 2.5

2.8 13.4 2.6

2.8 13.8 2.8

2.8 14.3 3.2

3 15 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -0.6

1.5 -2.9

1.5 1.1

1.5 0.5

1.5 4.5

1.5 -1.6

1.5 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -3.1

6 -0.4

6.1 1.9

6.3 3.6

6.2 -2

6.3 0.8

6.4 2

6.5 1.4

6.7 3.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.8 3.6

11.3 4.5

11.4 1.3

12.3 8.2

12.9 4.8

13.8 6.8

14.6 5.8

22 0.1

22.1 0.8

22.4 1.1

22.8 2.2

23.1 1.1

23.7 2.7

24.2 1.8

24.8 2.4

25.5 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 -7.1

13.2 -3

13.3 0.7

13.4 0.7

13.8 2.9

13.8 0.3

14.6 5.3

15.2 4.1

15.9 4.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -6.5

4.1 -2.8

4.1 0.6

4.1 -1.6

4.1 0.4

4.2 3.7

4.5 5.9

4.6 1.9

4.7 2.9

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.9

4.4 -6.2

4.4 -1.2

4.4 0.8

4.5 1.6

4.6 2.4

4.7 2

4.7 -0.6

37.9 -1.5

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.9

37.5 -0.8

37.4 -0.3

37.4 0

37.6 0.7

38.2 1.6

39.1 2.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

263.6 0.7

264.9 0.5

266.9 0.7

268.6 0.6

270.1 0.6

273.3 1.2

277.1 1.4

281.2 1.5

284.8 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

136.5 -1.1

135.3 -0.9

135.9 0.4

136.7 0.6

136.1 -0.5

136.1 0.1

135.9 -0.2

139 2.3

144 3.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

50

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.2

8.1

7.7

6.8

5.8

5.3

4.6

4.3

3.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

512 364 148

511 407 104

448 300 147

576 400 176

758 548 210

744 526 219

1079 645 434

948 512 436

1223 538 685

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


G aines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

13 5.4 7.5 5.5

13.7 5.3 7.9 5.8

14.4 4.9 8.3 6

15.1 5 8.8 6.3

15.8 4.9 9.2 6.6

16.6 4.8 9.7 6.9

17.4 4.7 10.2 7.2

18.1 4.4 10.6 7.5

18.9 4.2 11.1 7.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 3.8

11.9 3.2

12.2 2.7

12.5 2.7

12.8 2.5

13.2 2.5

13.5 2.4

13.8 2.2

14 1.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.4 40.1

47.5 41.2

49.6 42.1

51.9 43.1

54.3 44.1

56.7 45

59.2 46

61.6 46.8

64 47.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.4 4.5

53.6 4.2

55.8 4.1

58.4 4.6

61.1 4.6

63.8 4.5

66.6 4.4

69.3 4.1

72 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

146.1 1.3

147.6 1

148.8 0.8

149.7 0.6

150.7 0.7

151.6 0.6

152.2 0.4

152.9 0.5

153.6 0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.9 1.1

4.9 1.5

5 1.5

5.1 0.9

5.1 0.8

5.1 0.5

5.1 0.5

5.2 0.5

5.2 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

141.3 1.3

142.7 1

143.8 0.8

144.6 0.6

145.6 0.7

146.5 0.6

147 0.4

147.7 0.5

148.4 0.4

5.8 5.9

6 4.4

6.2 2.1

6.3 2.3

6.5 2.5

6.6 2.1

6.7 1.7

6.8 1.3

6.8 0.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 -0.3

21.1 -0.4

21 -0.6

20.9 -0.5

20.8 -0.5

20.7 -0.6

20.5 -0.8

20.4 -0.4

20.3 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15 3.4

3.1 15 3.4

3.1 14.8 3.3

3.1 14.7 3.3

3.1 14.6 3.3

3.1 14.5 3.3

3.1 14.4 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0.7

1.6 0.1

1.6 0.6

1.6 0.3

1.6 0.6

1.6 0.9

1.6 0.8

1.6 0.4

1.6 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 1.6

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.2

6.9 0.4

7 0.6

7 0.4

7 0.4

7 0.3

7.1 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 4.8

15.9 3.8

16.1 1.5

16.4 2

16.9 2.8

17.4 2.7

17.6 1.6

18 1.9

18.4 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 0.8

26 0.9

26.3 1.3

26.5 0.8

26.7 0.6

26.9 0.8

27.1 0.8

27.4 1

27.7 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 3

16.5 0.9

16.6 0.9

16.8 0.8

16.8 0.2

16.7 -0.4

16.7 -0.5

16.6 -0.6

16.5 -0.6

4.8 2

4.8 0.4

4.8 0

4.8 0.1

4.8 -0.5

4.7 -0.8

4.7 -0.8

4.7 -0.2

4.7 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 -4.4

4.3 -2.4

4.4 1.7

4.2 -3.9

4.2 -0.7

4.2 -0.5

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

39.3 0.4

39.6 0.8

39.9 0.8

40.1 0.5

40.4 0.7

40.7 0.7

40.8 0.5

41 0.4

41.1 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

286.9 0.7

288.5 0.6

289.7 0.4

290.7 0.3

291.6 0.3

292.5 0.3

293.4 0.3

294.4 0.3

295.4 0.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

145.3 0.9

146.5 0.9

147.8 0.9

148.5 0.5

149 0.3

149.5 0.4

149.6 0.1

149.4 -0.2

149.2 -0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.2

3

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

1387 699 687

1459 767 692

1499 768 731

1565 802 763

1597 819 778

1632 838 794

1656 862 794

1618 825 792

1583 786 797

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


G aines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.7 4.1 11.6 8.1

20.6 4.5 12.1 8.5

21.6 5.2 12.8 8.9

22.8 5.2 13.4 9.3

23.9 5.1 14.1 9.8

25.2 5.1 14.9 10.2

26.4 5 15.7 10.7

27.8 5.1 16.5 11.3

29.2 5.1 17.3 11.9

30.6 5 18.1 12.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 2

14.7 2.5

15.2 3.2

15.6 3.1

16.1 3

16.6 3.1

17.1 2.9

17.6 3

18.1 3

18.7 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

66.4 48.3

69.2 49.4

72.5 50.8

76 52.2

79.6 53.6

83.4 55

87.2 56.4

91.3 57.9

95.6 59.4

99.9 60.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

74.8 3.9

78 4.3

81.7 4.7

85.5 4.7

89.5 4.6

93.6 4.6

97.9 4.5

102.4 4.6

107 4.5

111.8 4.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

154.1 0.3

154.7 0.4

155.5 0.5

156.5 0.7

157.5 0.6

158.7 0.7

159.5 0.5

160.2 0.4

160.9 0.5

161.7 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.2 0.3

5.2 -0.5

5.2 -0.4

5.2 -0.3

5.1 -0.5

5.1 -0.6

5.1 -0.7

5 -0.5

5 -0.2

5 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.9 0.3

149.5 0.4

150.3 0.6

151.4 0.7

152.4 0.7

153.6 0.8

154.5 0.6

155.1 0.4

155.9 0.5

156.7 0.5

6.8 0

6.8 -0.5

6.9 0.9

7 1.6

7.1 2.4

7.3 1.7

7.4 1.5

7.5 1.8

7.6 1.6

7.8 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 -0.4

20.2 -0.3

20.1 -0.5

20 -0.5

20 -0.1

19.9 -0.3

19.9 -0.3

19.8 -0.4

19.7 -0.4

19.6 -0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 14.4 3.3

3.1 14.3 3.3

3 14.3 3.3

3 14.2 3.3

3 14.3 3.3

3 14.3 3.3

3 14.3 3.2

3 14.3 3.2

2.9 14.3 3.2

2.9 14.4 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0.4

1.6 0.9

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.1

1.7 1

1.7 1.1

1.7 1.2

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.6

1.8 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 0.1

7.1 0

7.1 0

7.1 0.3

7.1 0.5

7.1 0.4

7.2 0.2

7.2 0.2

7.2 0.1

7.2 0.1

18.6 1.3

18.9 1.6

19.3 1.9

19.5 1.1

19.9 1.9

20.3 2.1

20.5 1

20.7 0.7

20.8 0.8

21.1 1.1

28 1.2

28.3 0.9

28.5 0.8

28.7 0.8

29 0.9

29.3 1.1

29.5 0.8

29.7 0.5

29.8 0.3

29.8 0.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -0.3

16.4 -0.1

16.4 0

16.4 0

16.5 0.6

16.6 0.4

16.6 0.5

16.7 0.2

16.8 0.7

16.9 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 -0.7

4.6 -0.8

4.6 -0.4

4.6 0.2

4.6 0.3

4.6 0.3

4.6 0.4

4.7 0.3

4.7 0.3

4.7 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -0.4

4.2 0.8

4.2 1.3

4.6 7.5

4.4 -3.3

4.5 1.3

4.5 1.2

4.6 1.3

4.6 1.3

4.7 1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 0.3

41.4 0.3

41.6 0.6

41.8 0.6

42.1 0.6

42.3 0.5

42.5 0.5

42.7 0.5

42.9 0.5

43.1 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

296.4 0.3

297.4 0.3

298.4 0.4

299.5 0.4

300.5 0.4

301.7 0.4

302.8 0.4

304 0.4

305.1 0.4

306.4 0.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

149.1 0

149.5 0.2

150.1 0.4

150.8 0.5

151.4 0.4

152.1 0.4

152.7 0.4

153.3 0.4

154 0.5

154.7 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

3.9

4.1

4

4

3.9

4

4

4

4

4

1545 754 791

1513 730 783

1546 755 790

1561 754 807

1586 770 816

1532 709 823

1573 742 831

1623 779 844

1623 769 854

1624 780 844


G aines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

32.1 4.9 19 13.1

33.7 5 20 13.7

35.4 5.1 21 14.5

37.3 5.1 22 15.2

39.1 4.9 23.1 16

41 5 24.3 16.7

43.2 5.1 25.6 17.6

45.4 5.3 27 18.5

47.9 5.4 28.5 19.4

50.5 5.4 30.1 20.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 2.8

19.7 2.9

20.3 3.1

21 3.1

21.6 2.9

22.2 2.9

22.9 3.1

23.6 3.2

24.4 3.3

25.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

104.3 62.4

109.1 63.9

114.2 65.6

119.6 67.3

125 69

130.8 70.7

137 72.6

143.8 74.7

151 76.9

158.5 79.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

116.8 4.4

122 4.5

127.6 4.6

133.3 4.5

139.1 4.4

145.1 4.4

151.5 4.4

158.3 4.5

165.6 4.6

173.4 4.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

162.3 0.4

163 0.4

163.8 0.5

164.9 0.6

165.7 0.5

166.9 0.7

168.3 0.8

169.7 0.9

171.3 0.9

173 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5 -0.2

5 -0.2

5 -0.2

5 -0.3

5 -0.2

4.9 -0.4

4.9 -0.3

4.9 -0.4

4.9 -0.7

4.8 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

157.3 0.4

158 0.4

158.8 0.5

159.9 0.7

160.8 0.6

161.9 0.7

163.3 0.9

164.8 0.9

166.4 1

168.2 1

7.9 1.3

7.9 1

8 1.2

8.1 1

8.2 1.3

8.3 1.2

8.4 1.3

8.6 2

8.7 1.9

8.9 1.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 -0.4

19.5 -0.4

19.4 -0.4

19.3 -0.5

19.2 -0.3

19.2 -0.3

19.2 0.1

19.2 0.1

19.2 0

19.2 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.9 14.4 3.1

2.9 14.4 3

2.8 14.5 3

2.8 14.5 2.9

2.8 14.5 2.9

2.8 14.5 2.9

2.9 14.6 2.8

2.9 14.7 2.8

2.9 14.7 2.8

3 14.8 2.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 1.1

1.8 1

1.9 0.8

1.9 0.7

1.9 1.2

1.9 1.7

2 1.6

2 1.4

2 1.1

2 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 0

7.2 0.1

7.2 0

7.2 0.1

7.2 0.2

7.2 0.3

7.3 0.4

7.3 0.5

7.3 0.5

7.4 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 0.8

21.4 0.8

21.6 1

21.9 1.2

22.2 1.5

22.6 1.7

23.1 2.1

23.6 2.4

24.2 2.5

24.8 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 0.2

30 0.4

30.1 0.5

30.3 0.6

30.5 0.7

30.8 0.8

31.1 0.9

31.3 0.9

31.6 0.8

31.8 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17 0.6

17 0.4

17.2 0.7

17.3 0.5

17.4 0.6

17.4 0.4

17.6 0.8

17.7 0.4

17.8 0.7

17.9 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 0.1

4.7 0.2

4.7 0.3

4.7 0.3

4.8 0.4

4.8 0.3

4.8 0.4

4.8 0.5

4.8 0.6

4.9 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 1.2

4.8 1.2

4.9 1

5.1 4.7

5 -2.5

5 1.4

5.1 1

5.1 1.4

5.2 1.3

5.3 1.4

43.4 0.5

43.6 0.5

43.8 0.6

44.1 0.6

44.4 0.6

44.7 0.6

44.9 0.6

45.2 0.6

45.6 0.8

46 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

307.6 0.4

308.9 0.4

310.2 0.4

311.5 0.4

312.8 0.4

313.9 0.4

314.9 0.3

315.9 0.3

317 0.4

318.4 0.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

155.4 0.4

156 0.4

156.6 0.4

157.4 0.5

158.1 0.5

158.7 0.4

159.3 0.4

160 0.4

160.5 0.4

161.2 0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4

4

4

4

4

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.1

1596 769 827

1574 756 818

1586 770 816

1573 757 816

1556 758 798

1547 761 786

1561 783 778

1586 814 773

1586 812 774

1585 811 774

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


G aines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.3 7.5 7.1 5.2

12.4 6.8 7.2 5.3

12.6 6.9 7.3 5.3

12.8 5.9 7.4 5.4

12.9 5.2 7.5 5.4

13.1 5.1 7.6 5.5

13.3 5.3 7.7 5.6

13.5 5.3 7.8 5.7

13.6 5.4 7.9 5.7

13.8 5.3 8 5.8

13.9 5.1 8.1 5.8

14.1 4.8 8.2 5.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 5.7

11.2 5

11.3 5.4

11.4 4.5

11.5 3.6

11.5 3.5

11.6 3.5

11.8 3.4

11.8 3.4

11.9 3.3

12 2.9

12.1 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43.2 38.8

43.6 39.1

44.1 39.4

44.6 39.7

45.1 40

45.6 40.2

46.1 40.5

46.7 40.8

47.2 41.1

47.7 41.3

48.2 41.5

48.7 41.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.1 6.2

49.5 5.2

50 5.4

50.6 5

51.1 4

51.7 4.3

52.3 4.6

52.8 4.4

53.3 4.4

53.9 4.2

54.4 4

54.9 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

143.9 4.1

144.6 3.4

145.2 3

145.6 1.6

146 1.4

146.3 1.2

146.6 1

147.1 1.1

147.5 1

147.8 1

148.1 1

148.2 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 3.5

4.8 1.1

4.8 0.8

4.8 0.9

4.9 1.2

4.9 1.1

4.9 1.4

4.9 1.3

4.9 1.3

5 1.6

5 1.8

5 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

139.1 4.1

139.8 3.5

140.3 3.1

140.8 1.7

141.1 1.4

141.5 1.2

141.7 1

142.2 1.1

142.6 1

142.9 1

143.1 1

143.2 0.7

5.4 8

5.5 6.6

5.6 5.7

5.7 5.3

5.7 5.9

5.8 6.6

5.9 5.8

6 5.8

6 4.9

6.1 3.9

6.1 3.1

6.1 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 5.2

21.3 4.3

21.3 3.6

21.2 -0.1

21.2 -0.2

21.2 -0.3

21.2 -0.4

21.2 -0.3

21.2 -0.3

21.1 -0.4

21.1 -0.5

21.1 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 15 3.3

3 15.1 3.4

3 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

3.1 15.1 3.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 3.6

1.5 1

1.5 2

1.6 0.4

1.6 1.4

1.5 0.7

1.5 0.2

1.5 -0.9

1.6 -0.7

1.6 0.5

1.6 1.5

1.6 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 5.2

6.7 2.8

6.8 2.2

6.8 2.3

6.8 1.8

6.8 1.4

6.9 1.1

6.9 1.1

6.9 0.9

6.9 0.6

6.9 0.5

6.9 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 6.3

14.7 5.1

14.8 5.2

15.1 4.7

15.3 5.2

15.4 4.9

15.5 4.5

15.7 4.4

15.9 4

16 3.6

16 3.3

16 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 3.4

25.6 3.1

25.6 2.9

25.7 1.1

25.7 0.9

25.8 0.7

25.8 0.7

25.9 0.9

25.9 0.8

26 0.8

26.1 1

26.2 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.8 5

16 5.9

16.2 5.2

16.3 4.6

16.3 3.4

16.4 2.3

16.4 1.6

16.4 1.1

16.5 0.9

16.5 0.9

16.5 0.8

16.6 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 4

4.7 2.9

4.7 1.1

4.8 2.5

4.8 2.3

4.8 1.9

4.8 1.3

4.8 0.9

4.8 0.6

4.8 0.3

4.8 0

4.8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 0.9

4.7 -0.9

4.6 -2.7

4.5 -3.4

4.5 -4.3

4.4 -5.2

4.4 -4.8

4.4 -3.2

4.4 -2.5

4.3 -2

4.3 -2

4.2 -5.3

39.1 2.6

39.1 2.2

39.2 2.2

39.2 0.6

39.2 0.5

39.3 0.4

39.3 0.3

39.4 0.5

39.5 0.7

39.6 1

39.7 1.1

39.8 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

284.5 1.4

285.2 1.2

285.7 1.1

286.2 0.9

286.7 0.8

287.1 0.7

287.5 0.6

288 0.6

288.3 0.6

288.7 0.5

289 0.5

289.3 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144.1 4.4

144.4 3.6

144.6 2.9

144.8 1.3

145.1 0.7

145.5 0.7

145.8 0.8

146.1 0.8

146.4 0.8

146.7 0.9

147.1 0.9

147.4 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3

3

3

2.9

3

3

1214 520 693

1231 547 684

1256 582 674

1336 638 698

1400 684 715

1390 726 665

1420 750 671

1435 769 666

1472 768 704

1462 768 694

1467 763 704

1472 760 712

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


J ackson v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.9 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $44,200, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $57,500. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 69,758.93 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.5 percent annually. Unemployment will average 3.6 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, and then the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, with an average growth rate of 2.8 and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.0 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 759,551 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,871 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES More Jacksonville kids to access city-funded camps this summer

• O ne million dollars in additional funding will be used for summer camp programs in Jacksonville. Mayor Lenny Curry made this announcement to help alleviate concerns about there being not enough city-funded camps for children. • Jacksonville Children’s Commission wanted to improve the quality of the programs and rebid camp contracts; this would result in fewer locations and fewer kids that could be serviced. • Now with the additional money, about 1,700 more kids and 24 more camp locations will be funded.

Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


J ackson v ille

Banking, finance seeks to add 50 jobs to the Southbank

• An Australian based international finance and banking company opened its first office in Jacksonville last year. The company, Macquarie, is hoping to add 50 new jobs if it receives up to $50,000 in city incentives. • The office in Riverplace Tower on the Southbank could soon have a human resources and business services group, where the 50 new jobs would be placed, with an average salary of $56,160.

• The proposal includes a tax refund of $5,000 per employee; the city would be responsible for $50,000, and the rest would come from the state. The proposal has already been approved by the mayor’s Budget Review Committee and will go to the City Council next.

Source: Florida Times Union, May 8, 2017

Senior living center planned for Tamaya

• A new development at Beach and Kernan Boulevards in Jacksonville has a huge price tag of $40 million. The facility will be called Grand Living at Tamaya and will be a new senior living center.

• The facility will consist of 165 units of independent, memory, and assisted living care. It will have five dining areas (including casual and formal, along with a bistro), a fitness center with personal trainers, grand lounge, and a 150-seat performance theater. • Construction is expected to start in October and is estimated to take about 16 months.

Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017

Jacksonville in running for another major distribution facility

• A 1.3 million square-foot facility is up for grabs and Jacksonville could potentially be the home. Two out of the four potential sites are located in Jacksonville are in the running for an unnamed company’s distribution center.

56

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• A meeting between Jacksonville officials and the company’s officials consisted of discussing incentives, an overview of transportation, and state and local options. They also toured Imeson International Industrial Park, one of the largest industrial parks in Jacksonville, and possibly a potential finalist for the facility.

• If the unnamed company does pick Jacksonville as the site for its facility, they intend to hire at least 800 employees.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 21, 2017

Owners of The Roost to open another new restaurant this summer in Jacksonville • The Local, a 70-seat restaurant, will be opening mid-to-late June at 4578 San Jose Blvd. in Jacksonville. The idea is to bring a “big city café” to Jacksonville using fresh ingredients and serving standard items with unique twists.

• It will be open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. and will serve breakfast, lunch, dinner, coffee, fresh-squeezed juice, craft beer, and smoothies. An exclusive espresso-based coffee has been created and will only be served at The Local. • The seating will consist of inside seats, individual tables, a farm table, couches, two bar areas, and an outdoor patio with a fenced in grassy area for children to run around outside.

Source: Florida Times Union, May 5, 2017


J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 160000.0

10.0%

140000.0

8.0%

120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

100000.0

6.0%

80000.0

4.0% 2.0%

1

60000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1100.0

(Thousands)

1000.0

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

900.0 800.0

0.0%

700.0

-5.0%

600.0 500.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

49.9 -5.5 27.3 22.6

52.2 4.6 27.7 24.4

55 5.5 28.5 26.5

57.3 4.1 29.8 27.5

57.9 1 30.5 27.4

60.8 5 32.1 28.7

64.1 5.5 33.8 30.3

67.4 5.2 35.9 31.6

71.2 5.5 38.1 33

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

50 -4.6

51.9 3.7

53.3 2.7

54.6 2.3

54.4 -0.3

56.2 3.3

59.1 5.1

61.5 4.1

63.9 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

37.3 37.4

38.6 38.4

40.3 39.1

41.5 39.5

41.4 38.9

42.7 39.5

44.1 40.7

45.5 41.5

47.1 42.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 0.8

46.4 2.4

47.1 1.7

48.7 3.3

48.9 0.3

50.2 2.8

51.1 1.7

52.6 2.9

54.2 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

583.5 -5.7

579.9 -0.6

586.2 1.1

594.4 1.4

607.9 2.3

624.1 2.7

646.1 3.5

667.9 3.4

689.9 3.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -9.9

27.5 -6.1

27.4 -0.2

27.9 1.6

27.8 -0.3

28 0.8

29 3.6

29.4 1.4

29.9 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

554.3 -5.4

552.5 -0.3

558.8 1.2

566.6 1.4

580.1 2.4

596.1 2.8

617.1 3.5

638.5 3.5

659.9 3.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 -23.4

29.2 -12.7

27.5 -5.6

27.8 1.1

30.2 8.5

32.7 8.2

35.6 9.1

39 9.6

40.4 3.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

126.9 -6.9

124.3 -2

124.1 -0.2

125.4 1.1

127.8 1.9

130.7 2.3

135.2 3.4

137.9 2

141.4 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30

24.8 69 30.3

24.7 70.2 30.5

24.7 71.6 31.5

24 73.6 33

25.1 75.8 34.2

26.1 77.5 34.4

26.3 81.2 34.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -5.6

9.2 -4

9.2 -0.6

9.2 0.7

9.3 0.8

9.4 1.7

9.5 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

55.7 -6.7

55.7 -0.1

58 4.1

60 3.5

61.5 2.4

60.9 -1

61.5 1

64 4.2

65.7 2.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

79.4 -5.7

82.3 3.7

87.5 6.3

90.9 3.9

94 3.3

98.2 4.5

100.7 2.5

101.5 0.8

106.9 5.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

83.7 2.5

85.7 2.4

87.8 2.4

89.2 1.6

91.3 2.3

93.4 2.4

97.6 4.4

102.8 5.3

106.9 4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

65.3 -3.8

65 -0.4

66.3 2

69 4.1

71.8 4.1

75.5 5.1

79.9 5.8

83 3.9

86.5 4.3

23.2 -10.1

23 -0.9

21.6 -6

20.3 -5.9

20.6 1.5

21.7 5.3

23.1 6.2

25.4 10

26.8 5.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 2.3

18 2.9

17.3 -3.9

17.3 -0.4

17 -1.5

16.8 -1

17.1 1.6

17.6 2.7

17.7 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.8 -1.1

59 0.4

59.2 0.2

57.4 -3

56.8 -0.9

56.9 0.2

57.3 0.6

57.8 0.9

58.2 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1336.9 1

1350.7 1

1364.5 1

1381.1 1.2

1398.9 1.3

1423.5 1.8

1451.9 2

1481.9 2.1

1510.1 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

684.1 -0.9

696.9 1.9

701.5 0.7

704.1 0.4

709 0.7

716.3 1

719.2 0.4

734.2 2.1

757.5 3.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

10

10.7

9.7

8.2

7

6.2

5.3

4.7

4.1

4939 3403 1536

3724 3572 152

3591 3192 400

6400 4571 1828

7249 6164 1085

7476 6246 1230

9594 7341 2252

11565 8992 2573

14481 8875 5606


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

75.6 6.2 40.7 34.9

80.4 6.3 43.3 37

85 5.7 45.8 39.2

89.8 5.7 48.5 41.3

94.8 5.5 51.4 43.4

99.9 5.4 54.3 45.7

105.2 5.3 57.1 48.1

110.6 5.1 60.1 50.6

116.1 4.9 63.1 53

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

66.9 4.6

69.7 4.2

72.1 3.5

74.6 3.4

77 3.2

79.3 3.1

81.7 3

84 2.8

86.3 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

49.3 43.6

51.8 44.9

54.1 45.9

56.5 46.9

58.9 47.9

61.4 48.7

63.9 49.6

66.4 50.4

68.9 51.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.3 3.9

58.6 4.2

61 4

63.7 4.4

66.5 4.3

69.3 4.2

72.1 4.1

74.9 3.9

77.8 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

709.4 2.8

724.4 2.1

736 1.6

747 1.5

758.6 1.6

769.2 1.4

778.1 1.2

788 1.3

798 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 1

30.7 1.4

31.1 1.4

31.3 0.7

31.5 0.4

31.5 0.3

31.6 0.3

31.7 0.1

31.7 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

679.2 2.9

693.7 2.1

704.9 1.6

715.6 1.5

727.1 1.6

737.7 1.5

746.5 1.2

756.4 1.3

766.2 1.3

43.5 7.7

45.9 5.7

47.4 3.1

48.9 3.3

50.6 3.4

52.1 3

53.5 2.6

54.6 2.2

55.3 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

142.7 1

143.6 0.7

144.3 0.5

145.1 0.5

145.8 0.5

146.3 0.3

146.5 0.2

147.3 0.6

147.9 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27 82.5 35.2

27.5 83.3 35.4

28 83.7 35.6

28.4 84.2 35.7

28.7 84.4 35.7

29 84.5 35.7

29.2 84.6 35.6

29.4 85.1 35.8

29.5 85.6 36.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 1.4

9.7 0.7

9.8 1.1

9.9 0.8

10 1.1

10.1 1.5

10.3 1.2

10.4 0.8

10.4 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

67.5 2.8

68.6 1.6

69.2 0.9

70.1 1.2

71 1.3

71.8 1.2

72.6 1.2

73.4 1.1

74.2 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

113.9 6.6

119.7 5.1

122.8 2.6

126.4 3

131.1 3.7

135.7 3.5

139 2.4

142.8 2.8

147.5 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

109.1 2

111 1.8

113.6 2.3

115.5 1.7

117.2 1.5

119.2 1.7

121.2 1.7

123.6 1.9

126 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

89.5 3.5

90.9 1.6

92.5 1.7

94 1.6

94.9 1

95.3 0.4

95.6 0.3

95.7 0.1

95.8 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.5 2.6

27.8 1.1

28 0.7

28.3 0.9

28.4 0.4

28.4 0.2

28.5 0.1

28.7 0.7

28.8 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17 -3.9

16.6 -2.1

16.9 1.5

16.4 -2.9

16.4 -0.1

16.4 0

16.4 0.2

16.5 0.4

16.5 0.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.9 1.1

59.7 1.3

60.4 1.2

61 1

61.7 1.1

62.4 1.1

62.9 0.8

63.3 0.7

63.7 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1532.5 1.5

1551.8 1.3

1570.4 1.2

1589.2 1.2

1608.1 1.2

1627.3 1.2

1646.5 1.2

1665.8 1.2

1685.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

764.3 0.9

773.2 1.2

784 1.4

792.1 1

799.9 1

807.7 1

813.8 0.8

819.3 0.7

825.7 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

14016 8749 5267

13111 8791 4320

13430 8956 4474

13961 9235 4727

14175 9383 4791

14287 9471 4816

14435 9651 4784

14159 9424 4735

13893 9175 4718

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

121.7 4.8 66.2 55.5

128 5.1 69.6 58.4

135.4 5.8 73.7 61.7

143.1 5.7 78 65.1

151.4 5.8 82.7 68.7

160.1 5.7 87.7 72.4

169 5.6 92.6 76.3

178.6 5.7 97.8 80.7

188.7 5.7 103.4 85.3

199.2 5.6 109.2 90

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

88.6 2.7

91.4 3.1

94.8 3.8

98.3 3.6

101.9 3.7

105.7 3.6

109.4 3.5

113.3 3.6

117.3 3.6

121.4 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

71.4 52

74.2 53

77.7 54.4

81.2 55.8

85 57.2

88.9 58.7

92.8 60.1

97.1 61.6

101.5 63.1

106 64.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

80.7 3.7

84 4.1

87.9 4.6

91.8 4.5

96.1 4.6

100.3 4.5

104.9 4.5

109.6 4.5

114.6 4.5

119.7 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

806.4 1.1

814.8 1

824.8 1.2

835.6 1.3

847.6 1.4

860.1 1.5

870.1 1.2

879.4 1.1

889 1.1

899.2 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

31.7 0

31.5 -0.7

31.3 -0.6

31.2 -0.5

31 -0.6

30.7 -0.8

30.5 -0.9

30.3 -0.7

30.1 -0.4

30 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

774.6 1.1

783.2 1.1

793.5 1.3

804.4 1.4

816.7 1.5

829.4 1.6

839.7 1.2

849.1 1.1

858.9 1.1

869.2 1.2

55.8 0.8

56 0.4

57 1.9

58.5 2.5

60.3 3.2

61.8 2.4

63.2 2.3

64.8 2.6

66.3 2.2

67.7 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

148.6 0.4

149.2 0.4

149.8 0.3

150.2 0.3

151.2 0.7

151.9 0.5

152.5 0.4

152.9 0.2

153.3 0.3

153.7 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

29.6 86.1 36.1

29.6 86.7 36.1

29.5 87.2 36.1

29.5 88 36

29.6 89.1 36.1

29.7 90 36

29.7 91 35.9

29.7 91.7 35.7

29.6 92.8 35.4

29.6 93.9 35

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 0.9

10.7 1.4

10.9 1.7

11 1.6

11.2 1.4

11.4 1.5

11.5 1.6

11.8 1.8

12 2

12.2 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

74.9 0.9

75.5 0.7

76 0.8

76.9 1.1

77.8 1.3

78.7 1.1

79.5 1

80.2 0.9

80.9 0.9

81.7 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

150.6 2.1

154.3 2.4

158.6 2.8

161.8 2

166.4 2.8

171.2 2.9

174.3 1.8

176.9 1.5

179.9 1.7

183.4 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

128.6 2

130.8 1.7

132.9 1.6

135 1.6

137.4 1.7

139.9 1.9

142 1.5

144 1.4

145.5 1.1

147.3 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

96.2 0.4

96.9 0.7

97.7 0.8

98.4 0.8

99.7 1.3

100.8 1.1

102 1.2

103 0.9

104.3 1.3

105.5 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.8 0.1

28.9 0.2

29 0.6

29.3 1

29.6 1.1

30 1.1

30.3 1.2

30.6 1.1

31 1

31.3 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 0.3

16.7 0.9

16.9 1.2

18.2 7.5

17.6 -3.6

17.8 1.2

18 1.1

18.2 1.1

18.4 1.2

18.6 1.1

64 0.5

64.2 0.4

64.6 0.6

65 0.7

65.5 0.7

65.9 0.7

66.3 0.6

66.8 0.7

67.3 0.7

67.7 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1704.6 1.1

1723.9 1.1

1743.3 1.1

1762.5 1.1

1781.8 1.1

1801.1 1.1

1820.5 1.1

1839.8 1.1

1859.2 1.1

1878.7 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

833.2 0.9

842.1 1.1

851.7 1.1

861.5 1.2

871 1.1

880.6 1.1

890.3 1.1

899.9 1.1

910.3 1.2

920.8 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

4.2

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

13525 8875 4650

13139 8566 4572

13256 8689 4567

13419 8797 4622

13511 8882 4629

12975 8331 4644

13171 8511 4660

13553 8856 4697

13687 8958 4728

13708 9056 4652


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

209.9 5.4 115.1 94.8

221.7 5.6 121.6 100.1

234.2 5.6 128.4 105.8

247.4 5.6 135.7 111.8

261.4 5.6 143.6 117.8

275.9 5.5 151.9 124

291.5 5.7 161.1 130.4

308.5 5.8 171 137.4

326.5 5.9 181.7 144.8

345.5 5.8 193.1 152.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

125.5 3.3

129.9 3.5

134.5 3.6

139.3 3.6

144.2 3.5

149.2 3.5

154.6 3.6

160.3 3.7

166.3 3.8

172.4 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

110.6 66.1

115.6 67.7

120.9 69.4

126.4 71.2

132.2 72.9

138.1 74.7

144.5 76.6

151.3 78.6

158.6 80.8

166.1 82.9

125 4.4

130.7 4.6

136.6 4.5

142.6 4.4

149.1 4.6

155.8 4.5

162.9 4.5

170.2 4.5

178 4.6

186.1 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

908 1

917 1

926.9 1.1

938.4 1.2

949.8 1.2

961.7 1.3

976.2 1.5

992.1 1.6

1008.5 1.7

1024.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 -0.5

29.8 -0.4

29.6 -0.4

29.5 -0.5

29.4 -0.4

29.2 -0.6

29 -0.5

28.9 -0.6

28.6 -0.8

28.3 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

878.1 1

887.2 1

897.3 1.1

908.9 1.3

920.4 1.3

932.5 1.3

947.2 1.6

963.2 1.7

979.9 1.7

996.4 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

69.1 2

70.2 1.7

71.6 2

72.9 1.8

74.4 2

75.7 1.9

77.4 2.2

79.6 2.9

81.8 2.8

83.9 2.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

154 0.2

154.2 0.2

154.6 0.2

154.9 0.2

155.4 0.3

155.8 0.2

156.6 0.5

157.5 0.6

158.4 0.6

159.4 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

29.5 95 34.6

29.4 95.9 34.2

29.4 97 33.8

29.4 98 33.5

29.6 99.2 33.1

29.9 99.9 32.8

30.4 101 32.5

30.9 102 32.2

31.5 103 31.9

32.1 104 31.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 1.5

12.6 1.4

12.7 1.2

12.9 1.2

13.1 1.6

13.4 2

13.6 1.8

13.8 1.6

14 1.3

14.1 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

82.3 0.7

83 0.8

83.6 0.7

84.3 0.9

85 0.8

85.7 0.9

86.5 0.9

87.3 1

88.3 1.1

89.3 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

186.4 1.6

189.3 1.6

192.8 1.8

196.6 2

201.2 2.3

206 2.4

212.2 3

219.4 3.4

227 3.5

234.6 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

148.7 1

150.5 1.2

152.1 1.1

154.4 1.5

156.8 1.5

159.1 1.5

161.5 1.5

163.6 1.3

165.7 1.3

167.8 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

106.8 1.2

107.9 1.1

109.3 1.3

110.5 1.1

111.9 1.3

113 1

114.6 1.4

115.8 1

117.2 1.2

118.4 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.6 0.8

31.8 0.9

32.1 1

32.5 1

32.8 1

33.1 1

33.4 1

33.8 1.1

34.2 1.2

34.6 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 1.1

19 1

19.2 0.9

20.1 4.8

19.5 -2.8

19.7 1.2

19.9 0.7

20.1 1.2

20.3 1

20.5 1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

68.2 0.7

68.7 0.7

69.2 0.8

69.8 0.8

70.4 0.8

70.9 0.8

71.6 0.9

72.3 1

73 1

73.7 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1898.2 1

1917.8 1

1937.3 1

1957.2 1

1977.3 1

1997.5 1

2017.8 1

2038.4 1

2059.2 1

2080.2 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

930.9 1.1

940.3 1

949.6 1

960.5 1.1

971.3 1.1

982.5 1.2

993.9 1.2

1005.1 1.1

1017.1 1.2

1029.8 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

13491 8962 4529

13303 8848 4455

13287 8867 4420

13185 8788 4397

13102 8817 4286

13008 8802 4206

13134 8986 4148

13373 9267 4106

13485 9389 4096

13558 9473 4085

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


J ackson v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

70.6 5.6 37.8 32.8

71.7 4.9 38.4 33.3

72.8 5.8 39 33.7

74 6.2 39.8 34.2

75 6.2 40.4 34.6

76.1 6.2 41.1 35.1

77.4 6.4 41.7 35.7

78.6 6.3 42.4 36.2

79.8 6.4 43 36.8

81 6.3 43.6 37.3

82 6 44.2 37.8

83.2 5.8 44.8 38.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.5 3.9

64.2 3.2

65 4.3

65.8 4.8

66.5 4.7

67.2 4.6

68 4.6

68.7 4.4

69.4 4.4

70 4.3

70.6 3.9

71.2 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

46.9 42.1

47.4 42.4

47.9 42.8

48.5 43.2

49 43.4

49.6 43.8

50.2 44.1

50.9 44.5

51.5 44.8

52.1 45.1

52.6 45.3

53.2 45.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54 3.3

54.3 2.4

54.7 2.5

55.4 3.3

55.9 3.6

56.6 4.1

57.2 4.5

57.8 4.4

58.4 4.3

58.9 4.2

59.5 4

60.1 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

686.7 3.4

692.9 2.7

698.5 3.6

703.7 3.3

707.9 3.1

711.5 2.7

714.7 2.3

719.3 2.2

722.8 2.1

726.3 2.1

729.1 2

731.2 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 2.7

30 1

30 0.5

30.1 0.7

30.3 1.1

30.3 1.1

30.4 1.3

30.5 1.3

30.6 1.3

30.8 1.5

30.9 1.6

31 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

656.7 3.5

662.9 2.7

668.4 3.8

673.6 3.4

677.6 3.2

681.2 2.8

684.4 2.4

688.8 2.2

692.1 2.1

695.5 2.1

698.2 2

700.2 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

39.9 2.2

40.6 1.6

41.6 6

42.3 7.5

43.1 8.1

43.9 8.1

44.6 7.3

45.2 6.8

45.7 6.2

46.2 5.3

46.6 4.4

46.9 3.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

141 2.2

141.6 1.7

142.1 3.4

142.3 1.2

142.6 1.1

142.9 0.9

143 0.6

143.4 0.8

143.5 0.7

143.7 0.6

143.9 0.6

144.2 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

26.2 81 34.3

26.4 81.5 34.5

26.7 81.8 34.9

26.9 82.3 35.1

27 82.4 35.2

27.1 82.5 35.2

27.2 82.7 35.3

27.3 83.1 35.3

27.4 83.2 35.4

27.6 83.4 35.5

27.7 83.4 35.5

27.8 83.6 35.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 0.6

9.5 0

9.5 -0.3

9.6 1.1

9.7 2.2

9.6 1.5

9.6 0.9

9.6 -0.3

9.7 -0.1

9.7 1.2

9.8 2.1

9.8 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65.4 3

66 1.7

66.6 2.1

67.1 3.6

67.4 3

67.7 2.6

67.9 2.1

68.3 1.7

68.5 1.6

68.7 1.5

68.9 1.4

69 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

105.8 5.3

107.7 4.5

109.3 7.1

111.5 6.6

113.4 7.1

114.8 6.5

115.9 6

117.8 5.7

119.3 5.2

120.5 5

121.3 4.7

121.6 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

106.6 4.2

107.3 3.2

107.9 3.6

108.4 2.5

108.9 2.2

109.3 1.8

109.7 1.7

110.2 1.7

110.7 1.7

111.3 1.8

111.9 2

112.6 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

85.9 4.9

87.2 5

88.3 4

89 5.2

89.3 3.9

89.7 2.9

90.1 2.1

90.4 1.6

90.7 1.5

91.2 1.6

91.5 1.6

91.9 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 6.3

26.9 5.3

27.1 3.7

27.3 3.1

27.5 2.9

27.6 2.4

27.7 1.9

27.7 1.5

27.8 1.2

27.8 1

27.8 0.7

27.9 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 1.5

17.7 0.1

17.5 -1.5

17.3 -2.8

17.1 -3.8

16.9 -4.7

16.8 -4.3

16.7 -3.3

16.7 -2.3

16.6 -1.5

16.6 -1.2

16.1 -3.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.1 1

58.3 0.3

58.6 1.3

58.7 1.3

58.8 1.2

58.9 1

59.1 0.9

59.3 1

59.5 1.2

59.8 1.5

60 1.6

60.2 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1507 1.9

1513.6 1.9

1519.7 1.8

1524.9 1.7

1530 1.5

1535 1.4

1540 1.3

1544.8 1.3

1549.5 1.3

1554.2 1.2

1558.8 1.2

1563.5 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

757.6 3.6

758.7 2.9

759.7 2.6

761.5 1

763.2 0.7

765.2 0.9

767.5 1

769.5 1.1

771.7 1.1

774.4 1.2

777.1 1.3

779.9 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

4

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

14390 8855 5534

14557 8715 5842

14528 8639 5889

14474 8688 5786

14307 8724 5583

13788 8799 4990

13495 8786 4709

13203 8780 4423

13134 8765 4370

13016 8801 4215

13091 8818 4274

13222 8863 4359

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


L akeland – W inter H a v en

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland–Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland–Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.4 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,800, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $49,400. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 19,196.60 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.1 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 4.0 percent annual growth, and the Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors averaging 1.6 and 1.5 percent, respectively. No sector will experience a decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 294,486 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,935 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• GEICO – 2,300

Department of Environmental Protection warning letter: BS Ranch may have committed 27 violations

• City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Mary Yeargan, district director of Florida Department of Environmental Protection, wrote a letter to BS Ranch, informing that BS Ranch may have a total of 27 violations committed through the operation of their business. • The violations cover being unsuccessful in treating and managing human waste, providing up-to-date operation plans, as well as addressing offsite odors promptly. BS Ranch has faced multiple citations for odor complaints, though they have recently dwindled. • Brandy Stanton, president of BS Ranch, is working with the DEP to resolve this matter.

Source: The Ledger, May 14, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Legoland Florida opens Beach Retreat extendedstay bungalows in Winter Haven

• While Legoland had previously only run Legoland Hotel, a newer accommodation option called Beach Retreat opened in April, which was a few weeks ahead of schedule, and the project remained on budget.

• Beach Retreat hosts a total of 83 bungalows with cheaper prices when compared to the Legoland Hotel and will vary by the season. A total of 250 employees will be hired for the beach-themed accommodation. • Legoland General Manager Adrian Jones stated, “ … I think the strategy is pretty clear that themed accommodations, which we’re very, very good at, really does fuel growth in the park and also in the immediate area because it’s all about keeping people longer.”

Plans submitted for downtown Winter Haven’s 1st hotel • Though the brand name has not yet been released, Winter Haven will be welcoming its first downtown hotel.

• The new hotel is part of Winter Haven’s plans to attract events and visitors to the downtown area. In addition to the hotel, the city has also obtained Nora Mayo Hall for event space and in 2019, a field house is planned to open for sporting and business events.

• Katie Worthington, CEO of the Greater Winter Haven Chamber of Commerce, commented on the planned hotel, stating, “Once you get into the economic analysis and the need for space, it’s not a stretch at all to put it downtown. I think one area where you’ll see this shine is with corporate travel.”

Source: The Ledger, April 7, 2017

Source: The Ledger, May 7, 2017

New home construction in Polk continues at a blistering pace

Wildwood Antique Mall in North Lakeland sells old merchandise but is not old-fashioned

• Current single-family home construction has set a pace projecting over 4,000 permits in 2017 in Polk County. This past year, Polk County issued 3,282 permits for single-family homes. • A total of 987 permits have been issued for single-family homes in the first quarter of 2017, which is a 39% increase year over year.

• In March of 2017, 39.6% more single-family permits were issued compared to March of 2016. Nationally, 13.5% more single-family permits were issued in March of 2017 compared to the same time last year.

Source: The Ledger, April 23, 2017

64

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• Wildwood Antique Mall, owned by Manny Pesco, has been in operation since 2011 and is one of four Wildwood Mall locations that, when combined, made $4 million in gross sales last year. • Wildwood rents out space to antique vendors for $2.35 per square foot for regular space and for $2.55 per square foot for electric-supplied space. Wildwood offers a total of 300 rental spaces, with 280 currently rented out.

• While most of its customers are 50 years of age or older, millennials “make up a growing share of the market.”

Source: The Ledger, May 14, 2017


L akeland – W inter H a v en Lakeland – Winter Haven MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1.5

2

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 40000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

35000.0 30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 300.0

(Thousands)

Lakeland Real Personal Income 8.0%

280.0

6.0%

260.0

4.0%

240.0

2.0%

220.0

0.0%

200.0

-2.0%

180.0

-4.0%

160.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Lakeland Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.4 -3.8 7.7 9.7

18.5 6.6 7.7 10.8

19.7 6.6 7.7 12

19.7 0 8 11.7

20 1.1 8.3 11.6

20.9 4.9 8.7 12.2

21.9 4.7 9.1 12.8

22.9 4.6 9.7 13.2

24.1 5.2 10.4 13.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.4 -2.9

18.4 5.7

19.1 3.9

18.8 -1.8

18.8 -0.2

19.4 3.3

20.2 4.4

20.9 3.5

21.7 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

29 29.1

30.6 30.5

32.3 31.3

32 30.5

31.9 30

32.9 30.4

33.6 31

34.3 31.3

35.3 31.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39 0.9

39.9 2.2

40.5 1.7

41.3 1.8

42 1.7

42.9 2.1

43.7 2.1

45.1 3

46.5 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.8 -5.2

191.1 -2.4

189.9 -0.6

192.5 1.4

197.1 2.4

201.5 2.2

207.8 3.1

214.6 3.3

221.5 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.3

14.2 -0.1

14.6 2.9

15.9 8.7

16.4 3.3

16.6 1.2

17.1 3.1

17 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181 -4.9

176.8 -2.3

175.7 -0.6

177.9 1.2

181.3 1.9

185.1 2.1

191.2 3.3

197.5 3.3

204.5 3.5

12.1 -15.3

11 -8.8

10.3 -6

10.2 -1.3

10.9 6.8

11.4 4.1

12.1 6.8

12.7 5.1

13.3 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -1

45.9 2.3

47.1 2.5

48.1 2.1

49.4 2.8

51.7 4.6

52.8 2.2

54.8 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 24.2 12

8.7 24.2 12

9 24.4 12.5

9.2 24.6 13.2

9.4 25.4 13.3

9.5 26.5 13.5

10.1 27.2 14.4

10.2 27.5 15.2

10.5 28.7 15.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7

1.6 -6.7

1.6 -3

1.6 -1.5

1.6 1.1

1.6 1

1.7 4.7

1.7 -0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12 -3.4

11.8 -1.7

11.6 -1.5

11.4 -1.4

11.6 1.7

11.7 1

12.2 3.7

12.6 3.9

12.8 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 -7.5

25.7 -6.3

24.3 -5.4

25.4 4.5

26 2.4

27.1 4.2

27.5 1.5

28.8 4.8

29.9 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29 -1.4

29.2 0.5

29.6 1.7

29.4 -0.9

30.1 2.3

30.5 1.3

31.1 2.2

31.7 2

32.9 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.8 5.9

18.9 6.2

19.6 4

20.8 5.8

22.1 6.4

23.2 5

24.3 4.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -5.6

5.8 -4.5

5.4 -7.1

5.3 -1.9

5.3 0.2

5.6 5.3

5.7 1.8

5.9 3.2

6 2.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -24.7

1.1 -7.6

1.1 -3.7

1 -6.2

1.1 6.6

1.1 2.4

1.1 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.4

27.9 -1.8

27.5 -1.4

27 -1.7

26.1 -3.4

26.1 0.1

26.9 2.8

27.8 3.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.3 1

616.3 1

624.5 1.3

636.9 2

651.7 2.3

668.2 2.5

683.7 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

278.9 -0.1

278.5 -0.2

276.9 -0.6

277.2 0.1

278.5 0.5

278.7 0

279.6 0.3

284.9 1.9

295.5 3.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

66

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.3

12.1

11.3

9.6

8.2

7.2

6.3

5.6

4.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1203 1190 13

1229 1173 56

1117 1062 55

1454 1400 54

1943 1915 28

2508 2502 6

3056 3021 35

3998 3123 875

4200 3867 333

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.5 5.6 11 14.5

26.9 5.7 11.6 15.3

28.4 5.2 12.2 16.1

29.8 5.2 12.8 17

31.3 5 13.5 17.8

32.8 4.9 14.2 18.6

34.4 4.8 14.9 19.5

36 4.6 15.6 20.4

37.6 4.4 16.3 21.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 4

23.4 3.7

24.1 3

24.8 2.9

25.4 2.7

26.1 2.5

26.7 2.5

27.3 2.3

27.9 2.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.7 32.4

38.4 33.3

40 33.9

41.6 34.5

43.2 35.1

44.8 35.6

46.5 36.1

48.1 36.6

49.8 37

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 3.8

50.3 4.2

52.3 4

54.5 4.2

56.8 4.2

59.1 4.1

61.4 3.9

63.8 3.8

66.2 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

226.2 2.1

229.6 1.5

232.1 1.1

234.3 1

237 1.1

239.3 1

240.9 0.7

242.7 0.8

244.5 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 1

17.4 1.3

17.6 1.3

17.8 0.7

17.9 0.5

17.9 0.3

17.9 0.2

18 0.1

18 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

209.1 2.2

212.1 1.5

214.4 1.1

216.6 1

219.1 1.2

221.4 1

222.9 0.7

224.7 0.8

226.5 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 6

14.7 4.1

15 1.9

15.3 2.2

15.7 2.5

16 2

16.2 1.4

16.4 1.1

16.5 0.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

55.1 0.7

55.3 0.3

55.4 0.2

55.5 0.3

55.7 0.3

55.8 0.1

55.7 -0.1

55.9 0.3

56 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.7 29.2 16.2

10.8 29.4 16.4

11 29.5 16.5

11 29.5 16.6

11.1 29.5 16.7

11.2 29.4 16.7

11.2 29.3 16.7

11.2 29.3 16.9

11.2 29.4 17.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 1

1.7 0.1

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.4

1.7 0.7

1.7 1

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.2

1.8 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.1

13.2 1

13.3 0.4

13.4 0.7

13.5 0.9

13.6 0.7

13.7 0.7

13.8 0.6

13.8 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.6 5.8

33 4.4

33.7 2.1

34.6 2.6

35.7 3.4

36.9 3.2

37.7 2.1

38.6 2.4

39.7 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 1.4

33.7 1.2

34.3 1.8

34.8 1.2

35.1 1.1

35.6 1.2

36 1.3

36.6 1.5

37.1 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 2.7

25.1 0.8

25.4 1

25.6 0.9

25.7 0.4

25.7 -0.2

25.6 -0.3

25.4 -0.6

25.3 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 1.3

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.5

6 -0.2

6 -0.5

6 -0.8

5.9 -0.9

5.9 -0.4

5.8 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -4

1 -2.3

1.2 10.8

1 -11.3

1 -0.3

1 -0.2

1 0.1

1 -0.5

1 -1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28 0.8

28.3 0.9

28.5 0.8

28.7 0.6

28.9 0.8

29.2 0.8

29.3 0.5

29.4 0.4

29.5 0.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

694.4 1.6

702.2 1.1

709.1 1

716.6 1.1

724.4 1.1

732.1 1.1

739.7 1

747.3 1

754.9 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

299.2 1.2

303.1 1.3

307.5 1.5

311.2 1.2

314.4 1

317.5 1

319.6 0.7

321 0.4

322.7 0.5

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.3

4

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4798 4087 711

5014 4028 986

5131 4025 1106

5309 4147 1162

5380 4184 1196

5384 4208 1176

5505 4287 1218

5301 4077 1224

5064 3858 1206

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

39.2 4.3 17 22.2

41 4.6 17.8 23.2

43.1 5.2 18.7 24.4

45.2 4.9 19.7 25.5

47.5 5.1 20.8 26.7

49.9 5 21.9 28

52.4 4.9 23 29.3

55 5 24.2 30.8

57.7 4.9 25.4 32.3

60.5 4.8 26.7 33.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 2.2

29.3 2.6

30.2 3.1

31.1 2.9

32 3

32.9 3

33.9 2.8

34.9 2.9

35.9 2.9

36.9 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

51.4 37.4

53.2 38

55.4 38.8

57.6 39.6

60 40.4

62.5 41.2

64.9 42

67.5 42.8

70.3 43.7

73 44.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.7 3.7

71.5 4.1

74.8 4.6

78.1 4.5

81.7 4.6

85.4 4.5

89.2 4.5

93.2 4.5

97.4 4.4

101.6 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

245.9 0.6

247.2 0.5

249 0.7

250.6 0.7

253.1 1

255.4 0.9

257 0.6

258.4 0.5

259.8 0.6

261.4 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

18 0

17.9 -0.7

17.8 -0.6

17.7 -0.6

17.5 -0.7

17.4 -0.9

17.2 -0.9

17.1 -0.7

17 -0.5

17 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

227.9 0.6

229.4 0.6

231.2 0.8

233 0.8

235.5 1.1

238 1.1

239.8 0.8

241.3 0.6

242.8 0.6

244.4 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -0.2

16.3 -0.8

16.4 0.5

16.6 1.3

17 2.2

17.2 1.5

17.4 1.3

17.7 1.5

17.9 1.4

18.2 1.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

56.2 0.2

56.3 0.2

56.3 0.1

56.3 0

56.6 0.4

56.7 0.2

56.8 0.1

56.7 -0.1

56.7 -0.1

56.6 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

11.2 29.5 17.2

11.2 29.5 17.2

11.1 29.5 17.3

11 29.7 17.3

11 30 17.4

11 30.2 17.4

11 30.4 17.4

11 30.5 17.4

10.9 30.8 17.3

10.8 31 17.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 0.2

1.8 0.6

1.8 1

1.8 0.9

1.8 0.8

1.8 0.9

1.9 1

1.9 1.1

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 0.4

13.9 0.2

14 0.2

14 0.5

14.1 0.7

14.2 0.6

14.3 0.4

14.3 0.4

14.4 0.3

14.4 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 1.8

41.3 2.1

42.3 2.5

43 1.6

44 2.4

45.1 2.5

45.8 1.4

46.3 1.1

46.9 1.3

47.6 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 1.6

38.3 1.4

38.7 1.2

39.2 1.2

39.7 1.3

40.3 1.5

40.8 1.2

41.1 0.9

41.4 0.7

41.7 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 -0.2

25.3 0.1

25.3 0.1

25.3 0.1

25.5 0.6

25.6 0.5

25.7 0.5

25.8 0.3

25.9 0.6

26.1 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.9

5.7 -0.8

5.7 -0.4

5.7 0

5.7 0

5.7 0

5.7 0.1

5.7 0

5.7 -0.1

5.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1 -1.1

1 3.9

1.1 6.3

1.3 14.5

1.3 1.6

1.4 6.3

1.4 6.1

1.5 6.2

1.6 6.3

1.7 6.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 0.2

29.6 0.1

29.7 0.3

29.8 0.4

29.9 0.4

30 0.4

30.1 0.3

30.2 0.4

30.4 0.4

30.5 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

762.4 1

769.8 1

777.2 1

784.6 0.9

791.8 0.9

799.1 0.9

806.4 0.9

813.7 0.9

820.9 0.9

828.1 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

324.6 0.6

327.1 0.8

330.1 0.9

333.1 0.9

336 0.9

338.9 0.9

341.9 0.9

344.7 0.8

347.9 0.9

351 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

5

5.2

5.2

5.1

5

5

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

4877 3676 1201

4728 3535 1192

4825 3619 1207

4806 3573 1233

4861 3611 1250

4595 3308 1287

4749 3427 1322

4930 3560 1370

4894 3474 1420

4926 3477 1448


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

63.3 4.7 28 35.3

66.4 4.8 29.4 37

69.7 5 30.8 38.9

73.1 4.9 32.4 40.7

76.6 4.8 34 42.6

80.3 4.8 35.7 44.6

84.3 5 37.6 46.7

88.7 5.1 39.7 49

93.2 5.1 41.9 51.3

97.8 5 44.1 53.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.8 2.6

38.9 2.8

40 2.9

41.1 2.8

42.3 2.7

43.4 2.8

44.7 2.9

46.1 3.1

47.4 3

48.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

75.8 45.3

78.8 46.2

82.1 47.1

85.4 48.1

88.8 49

92.4 50

96.3 51

100.5 52.2

104.8 53.4

109.3 54.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

106.1 4.4

110.7 4.4

115.6 4.4

120.6 4.3

125.6 4.2

131 4.2

136.6 4.3

142.5 4.3

148.6 4.3

155.1 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

262.6 0.5

263.9 0.5

265.4 0.6

267.2 0.7

269.1 0.7

271.3 0.8

274.1 1.1

277.3 1.1

280.4 1.1

283.3 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -0.5

16.8 -0.5

16.7 -0.5

16.6 -0.5

16.6 -0.5

16.5 -0.7

16.4 -0.6

16.2 -0.7

16.1 -0.8

15.9 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

245.7 0.5

247.1 0.6

248.7 0.6

250.6 0.8

252.5 0.8

254.8 0.9

257.8 1.2

261 1.3

264.3 1.3

267.4 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 1.1

18.5 0.8

18.7 1

18.9 0.8

19.1 1.2

19.3 1.1

19.5 1

19.8 1.7

20.1 1.7

20.4 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

56.5 -0.2

56.4 -0.2

56.3 -0.2

56.2 -0.2

56.2 -0.1

56.2 0

56.4 0.4

56.6 0.4

56.8 0.3

57.1 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.8 31.3 17

10.7 31.5 16.9

10.7 31.7 16.8

10.6 32 16.7

10.7 32.3 16.5

10.7 32.5 16.4

10.9 32.9 16.4

11 33.2 16.3

11.2 33.4 16.3

11.3 33.7 16.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 0.9

2 0.8

2 0.6

2 0.5

2 1

2 1.5

2.1 1.4

2.1 1.2

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 0.2

14.5 0.3

14.5 0.2

14.5 0.3

14.6 0.4

14.7 0.5

14.8 0.6

14.9 0.7

15 0.7

15.1 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.2 1.3

48.8 1.2

49.5 1.4

50.3 1.7

51.3 2

52.4 2.1

53.7 2.5

55.2 2.8

56.8 2.9

58.4 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.9 0.6

42.3 0.8

42.6 0.8

43.1 1

43.5 1.1

44 1.2

44.6 1.2

45.1 1.2

45.4 0.7

45.7 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.2 0.5

26.3 0.4

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.4

26.7 0.5

26.8 0.4

27 0.7

27.1 0.4

27.3 0.7

27.4 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -0.3

5.7 -0.2

5.7 -0.1

5.7 -0.2

5.7 -0.1

5.7 -0.1

5.7 -0.1

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.1

1.8 6.1

1.9 5.9

2 5.7

2.3 13.1

2.3 -1.5

2.4 6.3

2.5 5.2

2.7 6.2

2.9 6

3 5.9

30.6 0.4

30.7 0.4

30.9 0.5

31 0.5

31.2 0.5

31.4 0.5

31.6 0.7

31.9 0.8

32.2 1.2

32.6 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

835.2 0.9

842.1 0.8

849.1 0.8

855.9 0.8

862.6 0.8

869.2 0.8

875.7 0.7

882.2 0.7

888.8 0.8

894.7 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

354 0.8

356.9 0.8

359.9 0.8

363.2 0.9

366.3 0.9

369.3 0.8

372.3 0.8

375 0.7

377.9 0.8

381.1 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.2

4846 3382 1464

4773 3279 1494

4838 3303 1535

4783 3202 1581

4761 3164 1598

4770 3143 1627

4864 3201 1663

4991 3293 1698

4987 3239 1749

4989 3187 1802

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24 5.3 10.3 13.7

24.3 4.9 10.4 13.8

24.6 5.1 10.6 14

25 5.5 10.7 14.2

25.3 5.6 10.9 14.4

25.6 5.7 11.1 14.6

26 5.7 11.2 14.8

26.4 5.7 11.4 15

26.8 5.8 11.5 15.2

27.1 5.8 11.7 15.4

27.5 5.5 11.8 15.6

27.8 5.4 12 15.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 3.6

21.8 3.2

22 3.6

22.2 4.1

22.4 4.1

22.6 4

22.9 4

23.1 3.8

23.3 3.8

23.5 3.7

23.6 3.4

23.8 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35.1 31.6

35.4 31.7

35.7 31.9

36.1 32.2

36.5 32.3

36.9 32.5

37.3 32.8

37.7 33

38.2 33.2

38.6 33.4

39 33.5

39.4 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.4 3.7

46.7 2.6

47 2.5

47.5 3.3

48 3.5

48.5 4

49.1 4.4

49.6 4.3

50 4.3

50.5 4.1

51 4

51.5 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

220.7 3.4

222.2 2.9

223.6 2.6

224.8 2.4

225.9 2.4

226.8 2.1

227.5 1.7

228.4 1.6

229.2 1.5

230 1.4

230.6 1.4

231.2 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17 -0.6

17 -0.6

17 -0.3

17.1 0.7

17.2 1

17.2 1

17.3 1.2

17.3 1.2

17.4 1.1

17.5 1.4

17.5 1.6

17.6 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

203.7 3.8

205.1 3.2

206.6 2.9

207.7 2.6

208.7 2.5

209.6 2.2

210.2 1.8

211.1 1.6

211.9 1.5

212.5 1.4

213.1 1.4

213.6 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 3.1

13.3 4.7

13.6 6.2

13.8 5.6

14 6.2

14.2 6.6

14.4 5.7

14.5 5.5

14.6 4.6

14.7 3.6

14.8 2.9

14.9 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

54.6 4.3

54.8 2.9

55 2.7

55.1 0.9

55.1 0.9

55.2 0.6

55.2 0.3

55.3 0.4

55.3 0.3

55.3 0.2

55.3 0.2

55.4 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.4 28.6 15.8

10.5 28.8 15.9

10.6 28.9 16.1

10.7 29.2 16.2

10.7 29.2 16.2

10.7 29.2 16.3

10.7 29.3 16.3

10.8 29.4 16.3

10.8 29.4 16.3

10.8 29.5 16.4

10.8 29.4 16.4

10.9 29.5 16.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 2.1

1.7 -2.5

1.7 -2.9

1.7 0.8

1.7 1.8

1.7 1

1.7 0.3

1.7 -0.9

1.7 -0.7

1.7 0.5

1.7 1.6

1.7 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 1.3

12.9 1.9

13 1.4

13 2.7

13.1 2.3

13.1 1.9

13.1 1.4

13.2 1.3

13.2 1

13.2 0.8

13.2 0.7

13.3 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 4.2

30.1 2.9

30.5 3

31 5.9

31.5 6.4

31.8 5.9

32.1 5.3

32.6 5

32.9 4.5

33.2 4.2

33.4 4

33.4 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 3.8

33 4.2

33.1 2.1

33.2 1.8

33.3 1.5

33.4 1.3

33.5 1.2

33.6 1.2

33.7 1.1

33.8 1.2

33.9 1.4

34.1 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 4.5

24.4 4.3

24.7 4.5

24.8 4.1

24.9 3.1

25 2.2

25 1.4

25 0.9

25.1 0.8

25.1 0.7

25.2 0.7

25.3 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6 2.3

6 1.9

6.1 1.3

6.1 1.8

6.1 1.6

6.1 1.1

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.2

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.6

6.1 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 2.1

1.1 1.9

1.1 -0.1

1.1 -3

1.1 -3.9

1.1 -4.8

1.1 -4.5

1 -6.3

1 -3.4

1 -0.7

1.1 1.5

1.1 10

27.8 3.7

27.8 2.5

27.9 2.4

28 0.9

28 0.9

28 0.7

28.1 0.6

28.1 0.6

28.2 0.8

28.3 1

28.4 1.2

28.5 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

682.3 2.4

685.6 2.3

688.5 2.1

691.3 1.9

693.4 1.6

695.5 1.4

697.5 1.3

699.5 1.2

701.3 1.1

703.1 1.1

704.9 1

706.6 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

295.5 4.4

296.3 3.6

297 2.8

297.8 1.6

298.7 1.1

299.6 1.1

300.6 1.2

301.5 1.3

302.5 1.3

303.6 1.3

304.7 1.4

305.9 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

70

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4

4

4

4.1

4.1

4117 3808 309

4304 3877 426

4420 3917 503

4620 4028 592

4784 4091 693

4870 4135 735

4919 4094 826

4964 4042 922

5014 4032 982

5036 4031 1005

5042 4005 1037

5081 3998 1082

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.4 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $50,000 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.6 percent, the lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $60,700, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.1 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 309,893.45 million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be at an average rate of 3.8 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sectors are expected to be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector at an average rate of 5.9 and 4.2 percent annually, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,150,611 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 132,803 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Palm Beach County companies ‘game changers’ in orthopedics and cancer, economic development agency says • Paley Institute in West Palm Beach and Sensus Healthcare in Boca Raton are touted as “game changers” in the healthcare industry and have been credited with bringing medical tourism to Palm Beach County.

• The Paley Institute performs 1,500 surgeries per year and serves patients coming from all 50 states and 90 different countries. • Patients that come to the Paley Institute have booked 5,000 nights in Palm Beach County hotels, as well as brought business to the county’s restaurants and pharmacies.

Source: Sun Sentinel, April 19, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

South Florida business owners have been growing revenue and hiring, survey shows • 70 percent of business owners in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties reported higher revenues over the past sixth months.

• 57 percent of business owners reported that they hired additional full-time employees. • 98.8 percent of South Florida participants in the Entrepreneur’s Organization survey were willing to launch a business in today’s economic environment.

Source: Miami Herald, April 11, 2017

Real estate buyers from China, elsewhere in Asia increasingly eye Miami

• Chinese buyers have increased their investment in Florida real estate by one percent from 2015 to 2016 and rank in the top tier of foreign purchasers in South Florida.

• Greg Owens, from Miami International Airport, affirmed that MIA is eager to finalize a new route agreement to allow for direct flights between Miami and the Chinese mainland. • Japan has also taken interest in South Florida by making a $220 million purchase of the iconic Miami Tower, one of the largest investments deals for Miami this year.

Source: Miami Herald, May 14, 2017

72

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Broward County poised for biggest new hotel boom in years • Around a dozen hotels are projected to open in Broward County and will boost room inventory to over 35,000. • Early numbers released by the bureau show Broward had 12.27 million domestic visitors in 2016, up from 4 percent in 2015.

• Currency and economic woes in source markets, like Canada and Brazil, as well as non-traditional accommodation alternatives, such as Airbnb and HomeAway, have hurt traditional hotel occupancy.

Source: Sun Sentinel, May 12, 2017

In South Florida, hardest-hit markets now enjoy the biggest gains in home values • M argate, Oakland Park, and Lake Worth are three of seven cities in Broward and Palm Beach Counties where median home values have doubled since 2012.

• In Oakland Park, the median value in April was $189,600, 107 percent higher than in April 2012. • Due to the lack of available land in South Florida, the cost of dirt has soared, driving the values of existing homes higher as well as pricing teachers, police officers, and other middle-class workers out of the market.

Source: Sun Sentinel, June 4, 2017


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 700000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

600000.0

10.0%

500000.0

8.0%

400000.0

6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

300000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment 4000.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

3500.0

0.0%

3000.0

-5.0%

2500.0 2000.0

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Miami Payroll Employment

-15.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

224.9 -8.1 106.1 118.8

240.7 7 107 133.7

254.9 5.9 110.9 144

264.6 3.8 115.7 148.9

264.4 -0.1 120.3 144.2

284.4 7.5 127.8 156.5

299.5 5.3 136.6 162.9

313 4.5 145 168

327.9 4.8 153 174.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

225.6 -7.3

239.4 6.2

247 3.1

252 2

248.5 -1.4

263 5.8

276.2 5

285.5 3.4

294.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.8 40.9

43 42.7

44.7 43.3

45.7 43.5

45.1 42.4

47.9 44.3

49.8 46

51.5 47

53.5 48

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.7 0.4

48.4 1.6

49.3 1.8

50.3 2

50.9 1.2

52.3 2.8

54.1 3.4

55.7 3

57.3 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2212 -6.3

2194.8 -0.8

2234.1 1.8

2286.8 2.4

2349 2.7

2428.4 3.4

2510.7 3.4

2587.7 3.1

2655 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.5 -13.8

76 -5.6

76.3 0.5

77 0.9

77.8 1

81.4 4.6

85.2 4.7

87.9 3.1

88.7 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2131.5 -5.9

2118.8 -0.6

2157.7 1.8

2209.8 2.4

2271.2 2.8

2347.1 3.3

2425.4 3.3

2499.9 3.1

2566.4 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

102.9 -24

89 -13.5

85.7 -3.8

87.1 1.7

93.4 7.3

102.5 9.7

113.1 10.3

122.9 8.7

129.7 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

505.8 -6.6

505 -0.2

520.4 3

537.1 3.2

550.4 2.5

567.3 3.1

584.7 3.1

593.1 1.4

601.8 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

135.5 281.2 89.1

132.7 283.9 88.4

134.5 294.9 91

139.1 303.7 94.2

140.7 313 96.7

142.9 324.8 99.6

145 335.6 104.2

146 337.8 109.4

147.8 344.4 112.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3

44.1 1.2

45.2 2.5

46.4 2.7

47.8 2.9

48.1 0.8

49.3 2.4

48.8 -1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

156.3 -9.1

153.3 -1.9

156.4 2

161.4 3.2

164.5 1.9

168.8 2.6

174.3 3.3

176 1

176.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

322.2 -7.9

325.7 1.1

339.3 4.2

353 4

371.1 5.1

389.9 5.1

406.2 4.2

424.6 4.5

441.2 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

330.6 1.3

335.7 1.5

341 1.6

341.8 0.2

346.5 1.4

355.9 2.7

367.7 3.3

381.1 3.6

395 3.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

248.2 -3.7

252.2 1.6

262 3.9

275.6 5.2

286.5 3.9

297.4 3.8

308.7 3.8

321.8 4.2

333.4 3.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

102 -6.6

101.7 -0.3

103.9 2.2

108.5 4.5

111.8 3

117.2 4.8

121.3 3.5

125.1 3.2

129.4 3.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -6.9

33.8 -1

33.5 -0.9

32.7 -2.3

33.2 1.5

33.6 1.2

33.4 -0.5

284.5 -2.3

276 -3

270.9 -1.8

266.3 -1.7

267.1 0.3

267.6 0.2

268.1 0.2

272.4 1.6

276.6 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5516.7 1

5601.4 1.5

5705.8 1.9

5788.9 1.5

5865.8 1.3

5939 1.2

6009.4 1.2

6073.8 1.1

6132.9 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2786.9 -2

2807.8 0.8

2858.9 1.8

2907.3 1.7

2935.9 1

2987.1 1.7

2994.7 0.3

3056 2

3127.9 2.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

10

10.8

9.6

8.2

7.2

6.3

5.4

5

4.4

3476 2222 1254

5054 3278 1776

7307 4153 3153

11423 5303 6120

17194 6269 10925

14630 5809 8821

20416 7151 13265

19269 7087 12182

25757 9347 16410


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

346.3 5.6 162.6 183.7

366.7 5.9 172.4 194.3

386.3 5.4 181.7 204.7

406.6 5.2 191.7 214.9

427 5 202.3 224.7

448 4.9 213 235

469.8 4.9 223.4 246.4

491.7 4.6 234.1 257.5

513.3 4.4 245 268.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

306.2 4

318 3.8

327.9 3.1

337.5 2.9

346.7 2.7

355.7 2.6

364.7 2.6

373.3 2.4

381.4 2.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

55.9 49.4

58.5 50.7

61.1 51.8

63.6 52.8

66.2 53.7

68.8 54.6

71.5 55.5

74.1 56.3

76.7 57

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

59.4 3.7

61.8 4

64.2 3.9

66.9 4.2

69.7 4.1

72.5 4

75.3 3.9

78.1 3.7

80.9 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2721.2 2.5

2773.2 1.9

2813.4 1.5

2849.3 1.3

2888.1 1.4

2923.4 1.2

2951 0.9

2982 1.1

3012.7 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

89.1 0.5

90 1

90.9 0.9

91.2 0.3

91.3 0.2

91.3 0

91.3 0

91.3 0

91.4 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2632.1 2.6

2683.1 1.9

2722.5 1.5

2758.2 1.3

2796.8 1.4

2832.1 1.3

2859.7 1

2890.7 1.1

2921.3 1.1

141 8.7

149.5 6.1

154.6 3.4

160.1 3.6

166.1 3.7

171.4 3.2

176.3 2.8

180.5 2.3

182.8 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

605.9 0.7

609.2 0.5

611.5 0.4

613.7 0.4

615.8 0.3

616.8 0.2

616.9 0

618.9 0.3

619.8 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

150.7 348.6 115.5

152.6 351.4 116.7

154.8 352.9 117.4

156.2 353.9 117.9

157.3 354 118.3

158.1 353.7 118.3

158.7 353.3 118.2

159.1 354.5 119

159.2 355.5 119.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 0.8

49.4 0.4

49.8 0.9

50.1 0.6

50.6 0.9

51.2 1.2

51.7 1

52 0.6

52.4 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

181 2.4

183.6 1.4

185.1 0.8

187 1

188.8 1

190.5 0.9

192.1 0.8

193.6 0.8

195.1 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

467.1 5.9

489.2 4.7

500.2 2.3

514 2.8

532 3.5

549.9 3.4

562.5 2.3

577 2.6

594.7 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

400.8 1.5

406.6 1.4

414.7 2

420.6 1.4

425.2 1.1

430.7 1.3

436.6 1.4

443.4 1.6

450.7 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

344.7 3.4

350 1.5

355.8 1.7

361 1.5

364 0.8

364.9 0.3

365.4 0.1

365.1 -0.1

364.7 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

131.8 1.9

132.7 0.6

133.1 0.3

133.7 0.5

133.7 0

133.4 -0.3

133 -0.3

133.3 0.2

133.2 -0.1

32.1 -3.9

31.5 -2

33.3 5.7

31.1 -6.5

31.1 -0.1

31.1 0.1

31.2 0.3

31.3 0.3

31.3 0.1

278.4 0.6

281.5 1.1

284.5 1.1

286.7 0.8

289.4 0.9

292.1 0.9

293.9 0.6

295.6 0.5

296.6 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6199.9 1.1

6265.5 1.1

6327.9 1

6389.5 1

6450.6 1

6511.5 0.9

6572.2 0.9

6632.8 0.9

6693 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3157.3 0.9

3199.8 1.3

3246.9 1.5

3280.4 1

3311.6 1

3341.8 0.9

3366.9 0.8

3388.4 0.6

3412.5 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

33626 15546 18080

37032 17909 19123

38731 18231 20500

40634 19041 21593

41692 19453 22239

42653 19888 22765

43317 20422 22895

42546 19613 22933

42026 18778 23249

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

535.6 4.3 255.7 279.9

560.6 4.7 267.9 292.7

590.7 5.4 282.5 308.2

621.3 5.2 297.8 323.5

654.1 5.3 314.7 339.5

688.3 5.2 332.1 356.1

723.3 5.1 349.6 373.7

761 5.2 367.8 393.2

800.4 5.2 387 413.4

841.2 5.1 407.4 433.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

389.9 2.2

400.2 2.7

413.6 3.3

426.6 3.1

440.4 3.2

454.3 3.2

468.1 3

482.7 3.1

497.7 3.1

512.9 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

79.3 57.7

82.3 58.7

85.9 60.2

89.6 61.5

93.5 62.9

97.5 64.4

101.6 65.8

106 67.2

110.6 68.8

115.2 70.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

83.8 3.5

87.1 3.9

90.9 4.4

94.8 4.3

98.9 4.3

103.1 4.2

107.5 4.3

112.2 4.3

117 4.3

122 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

3037.2 0.8

3062.4 0.8

3094 1

3125.7 1

3165.9 1.3

3206.1 1.3

3236.8 1

3264.4 0.9

3293.6 0.9

3324.3 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

91.3 -0.1

90.4 -0.9

89.6 -0.9

88.9 -0.8

88.1 -0.9

87.2 -1.1

86.2 -1.1

85.4 -0.9

84.9 -0.6

84.5 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2946 0.8

2972 0.9

3004.4 1.1

3036.8 1.1

3077.8 1.4

3118.9 1.3

3150.6 1

3179 0.9

3208.7 0.9

3239.8 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

184.2 0.8

184.8 0.3

188.7 2.1

193.7 2.7

200.2 3.3

205.2 2.5

210.1 2.4

216.2 2.9

221.4 2.4

226.4 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

621.1 0.2

622.2 0.2

622.7 0.1

623.1 0.1

625.8 0.4

627.5 0.3

628.6 0.2

628.8 0

629.1 0.1

629.3 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

159 356.7 120.2

158 358.4 120

157 359.6 120.1

156.5 361.7 119.8

156.5 365.6 119.9

156.6 368.5 119.7

156.2 371.5 119.4

155.5 373.7 118.5

154.8 377.3 117.4

154 380.8 116.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

52.7 0.7

53.3 1.1

54.1 1.5

54.9 1.4

55.6 1.2

56.3 1.3

57.1 1.4

58 1.6

59.1 1.8

60.1 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

196.2 0.6

196.9 0.3

197.6 0.4

199 0.7

200.7 0.9

202.1 0.7

203.3 0.6

204.3 0.5

205.4 0.5

206.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

606.3 2

619.8 2.2

635.8 2.6

647.2 1.8

664.2 2.6

682.1 2.7

693.1 1.6

702 1.3

712.4 1.5

724.9 1.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

458.3 1.7

464.8 1.4

470.8 1.3

476.9 1.3

483.7 1.4

491.3 1.6

497.4 1.2

502.6 1

507.1 0.9

511.9 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

365.5 0.2

367.4 0.5

369.4 0.6

371.5 0.6

375.6 1.1

379 0.9

382.8 1

385.6 0.7

389.7 1.1

393.2 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

132.7 -0.4

132.3 -0.3

132.4 0.1

133 0.5

133.6 0.5

134.3 0.5

135.1 0.6

135.7 0.5

136.3 0.4

136.9 0.5

31.3 0

31.9 1.7

32.7 2.5

35.5 8.8

34.8 -2.1

35.7 2.5

36.5 2.3

37.3 2.3

38.2 2.4

39.1 2.3

297.6 0.4

298.5 0.3

300.2 0.5

302 0.6

303.7 0.6

305.3 0.5

306.7 0.5

308.4 0.6

310 0.5

311.6 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6753.4 0.9

6813.6 0.9

6874.2 0.9

6935.6 0.9

6997 0.9

7057.9 0.9

7118.5 0.9

7179 0.8

7239.2 0.8

7299.2 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3437.4 0.7

3469.1 0.9

3504.8 1

3541.3 1

3576.5 1

3611.9 1

3648.2 1

3683.9 1

3722.7 1.1

3761.5 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

76

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

41544 18182 23362

41129 17786 23343

42063 18425 23639

42699 18461 24238

43511 18881 24630

42718 17684 25033

43933 18503 25430

45346 19426 25920

45704 19349 26354

45815 19618 26197


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

883.3 5 428.3 455

928.3 5.1 450.3 478

976.7 5.2 473.7 503

1027.9 5.2 498.9 529

1081.9 5.3 526.4 555.5

1137.8 5.2 555.3 582.5

1196.6 5.2 586.1 610.5

1259.8 5.3 619 640.8

1326.8 5.3 654.2 672.6

1396.4 5.2 691.2 705.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

527.9 2.9

543.8 3

560.8 3.1

578.6 3.2

596.9 3.2

615.4 3.1

634.3 3.1

654.6 3.2

675.7 3.2

697 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

120 71.7

125.1 73.3

130.6 75

136.4 76.8

142.4 78.6

148.6 80.3

155 82.2

161.9 84.1

169.2 86.2

176.7 88.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

127.3 4.3

132.8 4.3

138.5 4.3

144.4 4.3

150.8 4.4

157.4 4.4

164.2 4.3

171.3 4.3

178.7 4.3

186.5 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

3350.3 0.8

3376.5 0.8

3406.6 0.9

3440.2 1

3476.2 1

3512.7 1

3554 1.2

3599.1 1.3

3645.7 1.3

3690.4 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

83.9 -0.7

83.4 -0.7

82.8 -0.7

82.3 -0.7

81.7 -0.6

81.1 -0.8

80.5 -0.8

79.8 -0.8

78.9 -1.1

77.7 -1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3266.4 0.8

3293.1 0.8

3323.8 0.9

3358 1

3394.5 1.1

3431.6 1.1

3473.5 1.2

3519.3 1.3

3566.7 1.3

3612.6 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

231 2.1

235.1 1.8

240.2 2.2

244.8 1.9

249.9 2.1

254.8 2

260.6 2.3

268.7 3.1

276.4 2.9

283.3 2.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

629 -0.1

628.7 0

628.7 0

628.6 0

629.4 0.1

629.9 0.1

631.3 0.2

633 0.3

634.5 0.2

636.5 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

153 384.2 114.6

152.2 387.2 113.2

151.4 390.7 111.9

151.3 393.7 110.7

151.7 397.5 109.4

152.8 399.6 108.2

154 402.6 107.1

155.7 405 106

157.5 407.6 105

159.4 409.8 104.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

60.9 1.4

61.7 1.2

62.3 1.1

63 1.1

63.9 1.4

65 1.6

65.9 1.5

66.9 1.4

67.6 1.1

68.3 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

207.2 0.4

208.2 0.5

209 0.4

210.1 0.5

211.4 0.6

212.7 0.6

213.8 0.5

215 0.6

216.4 0.6

217.9 0.7

735 1.4

744.7 1.3

756.4 1.6

769.1 1.7

784.4 2

800.4 2

819.3 2.4

841.4 2.7

865 2.8

887.9 2.6

515.8 0.8

521.1 1

526 1

532.7 1.3

539.8 1.3

546.9 1.3

553.5 1.2

559.3 1.1

564.9 1

570.6 1

397 1

400.3 0.8

404.7 1.1

408.4 0.9

412.7 1

415.9 0.8

420.1 1

422.7 0.6

425.9 0.8

428.5 0.6

137.2 0.2

137.6 0.3

138.1 0.4

138.5 0.3

139 0.4

139.5 0.3

139.7 0.2

140.1 0.3

140.6 0.3

141.1 0.4

40 2.3

40.9 2.2

41.7 2

44.1 5.7

43.4 -1.5

44.4 2.3

45.2 1.7

46.2 2.2

47.1 2.1

48.1 2

313.2 0.5

314.9 0.5

316.6 0.6

318.5 0.6

320.4 0.6

322.2 0.5

324.1 0.6

326.2 0.6

328.3 0.6

330.5 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

7359.1 0.8

7418.7 0.8

7478.1 0.8

7537.9 0.8

7598.2 0.8

7658.4 0.8

7719.1 0.8

7780.3 0.8

7842.2 0.8

7904.4 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3799.2 1

3835.7 1

3871.9 0.9

3912.4 1

3951.8 1

3991.9 1

4030.9 1

4069 0.9

4110.1 1

4153.8 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

45224 19425 25800

44836 19187 25649

45214 19502 25712

45120 19277 25843

44852 19385 25467

44790 19508 25282

45287 20084 25203

46073 20892 25180

46412 21058 25354

46725 21195 25530

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

325.6 4.7 151.8 173.8

330 4.5 154 176

334.4 4.9 156.2 178.2

339.3 5.5 158.9 180.4

343.7 5.6 161.3 182.4

348.5 5.6 163.9 184.6

353.9 5.8 166.3 187.5

359.2 5.9 168.9 190.3

364.2 6 171.2 193

369.3 6 173.6 195.7

373.9 5.7 175.8 198.1

378.8 5.5 178.1 200.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

292.8 3

295.7 2.8

298.7 3.4

302.1 4.1

304.6 4

307.4 4

310.8 4.1

313.9 3.9

316.7 4

319.5 3.9

321.7 3.5

324.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

53.2 47.8

53.7 48.2

54.3 48.5

54.9 48.9

55.5 49.2

56.1 49.5

56.8 49.9

57.6 50.3

58.2 50.6

58.9 50.9

59.4 51.2

60.1 51.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

57.1 3.1

57.5 2.2

57.9 2.2

58.5 3.1

59.1 3.5

59.7 4

60.4 4.3

61 4.2

61.5 4.1

62.1 4

62.7 3.8

63.3 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2644.7 2.6

2665.4 2.5

2683.6 2.7

2701.1 2.8

2715.8 2.7

2728.5 2.4

2739.6 2.1

2755.5 2

2767.7 1.9

2780 1.9

2789.4 1.8

2797.8 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

88.6 1.2

88.7 0.9

88.7 0.1

88.8 0.2

89.2 0.6

89.2 0.6

89.3 0.8

89.6 0.9

89.9 0.8

90.2 1.1

90.4 1.2

90.7 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2556.1 2.7

2576.6 2.6

2594.9 2.8

2612.3 2.9

2626.6 2.8

2639.2 2.4

2650.2 2.1

2665.9 2.1

2677.8 1.9

2689.8 1.9

2699 1.8

2707.1 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

127.9 4.6

130.6 5.2

134.4 7.4

137.1 8.8

139.6 9.2

142.4 9

144.8 7.7

147 7.3

148.8 6.6

150.5 5.7

151.7 4.8

152.9 4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

600.8 1.5

602.7 1.2

604.3 1.5

604.4 0.8

605.3 0.7

606.5 0.6

607.2 0.5

608.4 0.7

608.9 0.6

609.6 0.5

609.8 0.4

611.2 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

147.3 343.6 112

148.3 345.4 112.9

149.5 346.2 114.1

150 347.9 114.8

150.5 348.2 115.4

151 348.9 115.7

151.4 349.3 116

152 350.8 116.3

152.3 351.1 116.5

152.9 352 116.8

153.3 351.8 117.1

154.1 352.6 117.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.9 -1

48.7 -1.5

48.6 -1.6

49.3 0.4

49.6 1.5

49.1 0.9

48.8 0.5

49 -0.6

49.4 -0.4

49.5 0.9

49.7 1.9

49.8 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

176.4 0.1

177.5 0.3

178.8 2.1

180 2.9

180.7 2.5

181.4 2.2

182.1 1.8

182.8 1.6

183.4 1.5

183.8 1.3

184.3 1.2

184.6 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

437.6 3.9

444.3 3.6

450 4.8

458 5.8

465.1 6.3

470.5 5.9

474.7 5.5

482.1 5.3

487.6 4.8

492 4.6

495 4.3

495.7 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

394.4 4

396.4 3.7

397.6 2.9

398.9 1.9

400.4 1.5

401.5 1.3

402.5 1.2

404.2 1.3

405.7 1.3

407.4 1.5

409.3 1.7

411.6 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

331.3 3.4

336.3 4.3

340 3.9

342.8 5.1

343.8 3.8

345.5 2.7

346.9 2

348.1 1.5

348.9 1.5

350.8 1.5

352.1 1.5

353.5 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

128.9 3.6

129.8 3.5

130.6 2.6

131.3 2.4

131.7 2.1

132 1.7

132.3 1.3

132.6 1

132.7 0.7

132.7 0.5

132.7 0.3

132.9 0.2

33.5 0.4

33.5 -0.6

33.1 -2.7

32.7 -2.9

32.2 -3.9

31.9 -4.7

31.7 -4.3

31.6 -3.2

31.5 -2.2

31.4 -1.4

31.4 -1

31.2 -1.2

276.4 2

277 1.2

277.5 0.9

277.8 0.8

278.3 0.7

278.5 0.6

279.1 0.6

279.9 0.8

281 1

282 1.2

283 1.4

283.7 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6124.1 1

6139.6 0.9

6157 1

6174.4 1

6191.6 1.1

6208.5 1.1

6225.4 1.1

6241.6 1.1

6257.6 1.1

6273.5 1

6289.2 1

6304.8 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3129.2 2.9

3133.2 2.3

3136 1.5

3143.7 1

3151.8 0.7

3161.5 0.9

3172 1.1

3182.7 1.2

3193.1 1.3

3205.5 1.4

3217.9 1.4

3230.9 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

4.3

4.2

4

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

24437 8375 16062

27221 10043 17178

29483 11778 17705

31728 13558 18170

33720 15103 18617

33944 16374 17569

35112 17147 17965

35922 17667 18255

37163 17912 19250

37323 18060 19262

37720 17996 19724

37959 18024 19935

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show high levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the second highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.6 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $77,300, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $57,700. The average annual wage is expected to grow at the second highest rate of the MSAs studied at 4.4 percent. Population growth will average 2.3 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 18,149.78 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 6.5 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900

Sales momentum at Seaglass continues as construction progresses

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 169,698 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,319 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

• Sales are booming at the 26-floor, 120-unit Seaglass high-rise tower. The building is 60% sold, with more than $125 million contracts having been processed. Seaglass is being built by Ronto Group.

• Seaglass residents have access to the Bonita Bay Club, which provides multiple amenities inlcuding a 60,000-square-foot Lifestyle Center, five gold courses, tennis facilities, full-service marina, and a private beach park.

• With a good location and great amenities, luxury homebuyers will continue to be attracted to Seaglass high-rise tower.

Source: Naples Daily News, June 3, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Wawa announces Naples ‘hiring push’

• Wawa, a chain of convenience stores with gas stations, is slated to open its first store in Naples in August of 2017.

• Wawa has plans to open 25 to 30 new stores each year across Florida for several coming years, and each store will have 50 new employees. • Wawa offers competitive pay, and full-time and part-time employees are eligible for health benefits and have opportunity to earn Wawa company stock.

Source: Naples Daily News, May 31, 2017

Lee Health celebrates readiness to build medical village in Estero

• Lee Health conducted a “ground-raising” ceremony for a $140 million “health and wellness” village. The site is 30 acres, and it will have a variety of medical clinics, such as an outpatient surgery center and a wellness center. • Lee Health originally wanted to include a hospital; however, a legal battle has prevented that for now.

• Jim Nathan, who is the outgoing president and CEO of Lee Health, has said, “This is a journey of not just years but decades. We saw some time ago a term I began to use that south Lee County, from a health perspective, was emerging as an outpost, not an in-post.”

Source: Naples Daily News, May 18, 2017

Collier County Reconsidering PACE Loans for Homeowners

• Collier County Commissioners are relooking at a state program for financing storm-resistant or energy-efficient improvements. • Jay Neal, who is the President of Florida Association for Insurance Reform (FAIR), argued that the bill can reduce insurance premiums and utility bills while creating jobs: “All these dollars we spend on insurance go offshore. By diverting those funds back into the

80

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Florida economy we create a heck of a lot of jobs. For every $10 million invested we create 6,000 jobs over 20 years.”

• The program extends credit more freely, but the interest rates are also higher. Furthermore, the payments are added onto a homeowners’ property tax bill and can lead to liens and foreclosure.

Source: Naples Herald, April 17, 2017

Naples City Council Rejects Density Regulations for Workforce Housing

• Naples City Council moved away from a proposal to relax density regulations, as to allow construction of workforce housing in the city’s development district. • Workforce housing is designed to be affordable for individuals and families who would usually be unable to afford to live in the area in which they work. This legislation would have affected the area between U.S. 41 and Goodlette-Frank Road.

• Those opposing the bill argue that relaxing the density regulation would cause Naples to lose its “small town feel” and that it would reduce quality of life. However, those for the bill argued that it harms essential service personnel.

Source: Naples Herald, April 07, 2017


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland Naples - Immokalee - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1.5

2

2.5

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 50000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

40000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

30000.0 20000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment 300.0

(Thousands)

15.0%

(percent change year ago)

10.0%

250.0

5.0%

200.0

0.0% -5.0%

150.0

-10.0%

100.0 50.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

-15.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Naples Payroll Employment

-20.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

18.8 -14.7 5 13.8

20.5 9 5.1 15.4

22 7.2 5.3 16.7

24.1 9.4 5.6 18.5

24.1 0 6 18.1

26.9 11.6 6.4 20.5

28 4.2 6.8 21.2

29.3 4.6 7.4 22

31.1 5.9 7.9 23.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 -14

20.4 8.1

21.3 4.4

23 7.6

22.6 -1.4

24.9 9.9

25.9 3.9

26.8 3.5

27.9 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

59.1 59.2

63.5 63.2

67.1 65

72.3 68.9

70.8 66.5

77.1 71.3

78.4 72.3

80.1 73.1

82.9 74.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.1 -1.3

45.8 1.6

45.9 0.3

46.6 1.5

48.3 3.5

48.9 1.3

49.8 1.9

51.5 3.2

54.2 5.4

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

111.3 -8.4

111.2 -0.1

115 3.4

118.7 3.2

123.3 3.9

129.9 5.4

136.1 4.8

142.4 4.7

145.2 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -11.2

2.4 -6.7

2.5 1.4

2.7 8

3 13.7

3.3 8

3.4 4.3

3.8 9.3

4.1 8.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

108.6 -8.3

108.8 0.1

112.5 3.4

116 3.1

120.2 3.7

126.6 5.3

132.7 4.8

138.7 4.5

141.1 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 -27.9

9.1 -12.9

9 -0.9

9.4 4.4

10.5 11.7

12.1 15.5

13.6 12.1

15 10.5

16.1 7.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 -7.6

21.3 0.9

22.2 4.1

22.8 2.5

23.9 5.1

25.3 5.9

26.3 3.7

27.1 3.2

27 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.8 16.9 1.5

2.8 17 1.5

2.9 17.9 1.4

3 18.4 1.4

3.4 19.1 1.4

3.7 20.1 1.5

3.7 20.8 1.7

3.9 21.3 1.9

4.1 21.2 1.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -8.9

1.5 -4.2

1.5 -4.8

1.4 -2.3

1.5 4

1.5 -0.6

1.5 2.3

1.6 5

1.6 -0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -9.8

6.5 -1

6.5 -1

6.7 4.2

7 4.2

7.5 7.1

8 6.1

8 0.1

8.1 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 -4.6

11.1 5.8

12.1 9.3

13.3 9.7

13.5 1.7

14.4 6.4

15.3 5.9

16.1 5.5

16.5 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 -1.3

17.1 3

17.9 4.8

18 0.3

18.3 1.7

18.8 3

19.9 5.5

21.1 5.9

21.8 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21 -8.2

21.3 1.6

22.6 6

23.6 4.3

24.4 3.7

25.5 4.4

26.5 3.8

27.2 2.8

27.1 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -3.1

7.3 0.8

7.3 -0.2

7.4 2.5

7.9 6.6

8.3 5.1

8.5 1.6

9.1 7.2

9.3 2.7

0.7 1.2

0.8 14.7

0.7 -10.6

0.6 -7.3

0.6 -7.6

0.6 0.1

0.6 2.7

0.7 12.3

0.7 -0.7

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1.6

12.7 0.4

12.7 -0.3

12.5 -1.7

12.4 -0.5

12.6 1.6

12.9 2

12.9 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

319.1 0.7

323.3 1.3

328.1 1.5

333.3 1.6

340.4 2.1

349 2.5

357.6 2.5

366.2 2.4

374.5 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

142.8 -3.4

145.3 1.8

148.9 2.4

152.7 2.6

155.5 1.8

160.2 3

163.4 2

167.7 2.6

167.1 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

82

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.1

11.6

10.1

8.4

7.1

6

5.2

4.8

4.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

833 633 200

1202 805 397

1217 928 289

1485 1283 202

2332 1732 601

3255 2391 864

3799 3058 741

3669 2928 742

4411 2654 1757

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

33.2 6.8 8.6 24.6

35.5 7.1 9.2 26.3

37.8 6.6 9.8 28

40.3 6.4 10.5 29.8

42.7 6.1 11.2 31.5

45.3 6 11.9 33.4

48 6.1 12.6 35.5

50.8 5.8 13.3 37.5

53.7 5.6 14.1 39.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 5.1

30.8 5

32.1 4.3

33.4 4.1

34.7 3.8

35.9 3.6

37.3 3.8

38.6 3.5

39.9 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

86.5 76.4

90.5 78.4

94.3 80

98.2 81.5

101.9 82.8

105.8 84

109.9 85.4

113.9 86.5

117.8 87.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.4 4

58.8 4.3

61.2 4

63.9 4.4

66.7 4.4

69.5 4.2

72.2 3.9

75 3.8

77.9 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

150.9 3.9

155.6 3.1

159.5 2.6

163.3 2.4

167.1 2.3

170.5 2.1

173.7 1.9

177 1.9

180.3 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 1.3

4.2 1.6

4.3 1.5

4.3 0.9

4.3 0.3

4.3 0

4.3 0.2

4.3 0.2

4.3 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

146.7 4

151.4 3.1

155.3 2.6

159 2.4

162.7 2.3

166.2 2.1

169.4 1.9

172.7 2

175.9 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.4 8.1

18.6 6.4

19.3 3.8

20 4

20.9 4.3

21.7 3.9

22.5 3.7

23.2 3

23.6 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 1.7

27.9 1.8

28.3 1.6

28.8 1.6

29.2 1.5

29.6 1.3

30 1.2

30.4 1.5

30.8 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.3 21.8 2

4.4 22.3 2

4.5 22.7 2

4.7 23.1 2.1

4.8 23.3 2.1

4.9 23.6 2.1

4.9 23.8 2.2

5 24.2 2.2

5.1 24.6 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 1.9

1.6 1.5

1.7 2

1.7 1.7

1.7 1.9

1.8 2.2

1.8 2.1

1.8 1.6

1.9 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 4.5

8.7 3.3

9 2.5

9.2 2.5

9.4 2.4

9.6 2.2

9.8 2.1

10 2.1

10.3 2.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 6.8

18.6 5.5

19.2 3.1

19.9 3.6

20.7 4.3

21.6 4.1

22.2 3

23 3.4

23.9 4.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 3.1

23.1 2.9

23.8 3.3

24.5 2.6

25 2.2

25.6 2.4

26.2 2.5

26.9 2.7

27.7 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 4.4

28.9 2.2

29.5 2.2

30.1 2

30.5 1.2

30.7 0.6

30.9 0.6

31 0.4

31.1 0.4

9.6 3.3

9.8 2

10 1.6

10.2 1.8

10.3 1.2

10.4 0.9

10.5 0.9

10.6 1.4

10.8 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -2.8

0.7 -0.7

0.8 14.8

0.7 -11.7

0.7 1

0.7 1.1

0.7 1.4

0.7 1.1

0.7 0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 1.9

13.4 2.3

13.7 2.2

14 1.9

14.3 2

14.5 1.9

14.8 1.6

15 1.5

15.2 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

383.4 2.4

392.4 2.3

401.2 2.3

410 2.2

418.9 2.2

427.9 2.1

437 2.1

446.2 2.1

455.6 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

164.5 -1.6

164.1 -0.2

166.3 1.3

170.1 2.2

174.6 2.7

179.1 2.6

182.9 2.1

186.5 1.9

190.4 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.8

5

5200 2641 2560

5441 2531 2909

5745 2602 3143

6124 2741 3383

6338 2836 3502

6531 2927 3604

6648 3023 3624

6615 2985 3630

6602 2942 3659

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

56.7 5.6 14.9 41.8

60 5.9 15.7 44.3

64.1 6.8 16.8 47.3

68.3 6.5 18 50.3

72.8 6.6 19.3 53.5

77.6 6.5 20.6 56.9

82.6 6.5 22.1 60.5

88.2 6.7 23.6 64.6

94 6.6 25.2 68.8

100.1 6.5 26.9 73.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 3.5

42.9 3.9

44.9 4.7

46.9 4.5

49 4.5

51.2 4.4

53.4 4.4

55.9 4.6

58.5 4.5

61 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

121.9 88.7

126.5 90.3

132.4 92.7

138.3 95

144.6 97.3

150.9 99.6

157.5 101.9

164.8 104.6

172.4 107.2

180 109.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

80.8 3.8

84.2 4.2

88.2 4.7

92.2 4.6

96.7 4.8

101.2 4.7

105.9 4.7

111 4.7

116.1 4.7

121.5 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

183.3 1.7

186.3 1.6

190.1 2

194 2.1

198.8 2.4

203.3 2.3

207.6 2.1

211.8 2

216.1 2.1

220.5 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 0.3

4.3 -0.4

4.3 -0.4

4.3 -0.3

4.3 -0.4

4.3 -0.6

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -0.4

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

179 1.7

182 1.7

185.8 2.1

189.7 2.1

194.5 2.5

199.1 2.4

203.3 2.1

207.5 2.1

211.9 2.1

216.3 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 0.9

23.9 0.4

24.5 2.7

25.3 3.3

26.3 3.9

27.1 3

27.9 3

28.9 3.7

29.8 3

30.6 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 1.6

31.8 1.7

32.3 1.5

32.8 1.5

33.4 1.9

34 1.7

34.6 1.7

35.1 1.5

35.7 1.7

36.3 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 25 2.3

5.2 25.4 2.3

5.2 25.7 2.3

5.3 26.2 2.4

5.4 26.8 2.4

5.5 27.4 2.4

5.5 28 2.5

5.6 28.5 2.5

5.7 29.1 2.5

5.7 29.8 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 1.7

2 2.2

2 2.6

2 2.4

2.1 2.3

2.1 2.4

2.2 2.4

2.3 2.6

2.3 2.7

2.4 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 1.9

10.6 1.5

10.8 1.5

11 2

11.2 2.2

11.5 2.1

11.7 1.9

11.9 1.8

12.1 1.9

12.4 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 3.2

25.6 3.6

26.6 4

27.4 3.1

28.5 3.9

29.6 3.9

30.5 2.8

31.2 2.5

32.1 2.7

33 3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 2.8

29.2 2.5

29.9 2.4

30.6 2.4

31.4 2.6

32.3 2.7

33 2.4

33.7 2.1

34.4 2

35 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 0.7

31.6 0.9

31.9 1

32.2 1

32.8 1.6

33.2 1.4

33.7 1.5

34.1 1.2

34.7 1.7

35.2 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.9 0.9

11 1

11.1 1.3

11.3 1.8

11.5 1.8

11.7 1.9

12 1.9

12.2 1.9

12.4 1.8

12.6 1.8

0.7 0.7

0.7 4.1

0.8 5.6

0.9 12.5

0.9 1

0.9 5.4

1 5.2

1 5.2

1.1 5.2

1.2 5.1

15.4 1.4

15.6 1.3

15.8 1.5

16.1 1.6

16.3 1.6

16.6 1.5

16.8 1.5

17.1 1.6

17.4 1.6

17.6 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

465.1 2.1

474.5 2

484.2 2

493.9 2

503.6 2

513.9 2

524.3 2

534.8 2

545.5 2

556.3 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

194.4 2.1

198.7 2.2

203.3 2.3

208.1 2.3

212.8 2.3

217.7 2.3

222.7 2.3

227.8 2.3

233.4 2.4

239 2.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

6528 2893 3635

6455 2845 3610

6563 2923 3640

6710 2999 3710

6812 3063 3750

6715 2933 3782

6839 3029 3811

7030 3179 3851

7142 3259 3883

7151 3322 3829


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

106.5 6.4 28.7 77.8

113.5 6.6 30.6 82.9

121.2 6.8 32.8 88.4

129.3 6.7 35 94.3

137.8 6.6 37.5 100.4

146.6 6.4 40 106.6

156 6.4 42.7 113.3

166.2 6.6 45.7 120.5

176.7 6.3 48.8 127.9

187.6 6.2 52.1 135.6

63.7 4.3

66.5 4.5

69.6 4.7

72.8 4.6

76 4.4

79.3 4.3

82.7 4.3

86.4 4.5

90 4.2

93.7 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

187.8 112.2

196.3 115

205.6 118

215.2 121.1

225 124.2

234.9 127

245.4 130.1

256.9 133.5

268.6 136.8

280.6 140

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

127.2 4.7

133.3 4.8

139.7 4.8

146.3 4.7

153.1 4.6

160.3 4.7

167.8 4.7

175.8 4.7

183.6 4.5

191.7 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

224.8 1.9

229.1 1.9

233.8 2.1

238.7 2.1

243.9 2.2

248.7 2

253.8 2.1

259.5 2.2

265.3 2.2

271 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.2

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.3

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.6

4 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

220.6 2

224.9 2

229.6 2.1

234.5 2.1

239.7 2.2

244.5 2

249.7 2.1

255.4 2.3

261.2 2.3

266.9 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

31.4 2.6

32.1 2.2

32.9 2.7

33.7 2.4

34.5 2.4

35.3 2.1

36 2.1

37.1 3.2

38.2 2.8

39.1 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 1.6

37.5 1.6

38.1 1.6

38.6 1.5

39.3 1.7

39.9 1.5

40.7 1.9

41.4 1.8

42.1 1.8

42.9 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.8 30.4 2.5

5.8 31 2.5

5.9 31.7 2.5

6 32.3 2.5

6.1 33.1 2.6

6.2 33.7 2.6

6.3 34.5 2.6

6.5 35.2 2.6

6.7 35.9 2.6

6.9 36.5 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 2.3

2.5 2.1

2.5 1.9

2.6 1.8

2.6 2.2

2.7 1.8

2.7 1.4

2.8 1.3

2.8 0.9

2.8 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 1.7

12.8 1.9

13 1.8

13.3 2

13.6 2.1

13.9 2

14.1 2

14.4 2

14.7 2

15 2.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 2.7

34.8 2.7

35.8 2.9

37 3.2

38.2 3.4

39.6 3.5

41.1 3.8

42.8 4.1

44.6 4.3

46.4 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

35.7 2

36.5 2.2

37.3 2.2

38.2 2.4

39.2 2.5

40 2.1

40.8 1.9

41.5 1.9

42.4 2.1

43.3 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

35.8 1.5

36.3 1.4

36.9 1.7

37.4 1.5

38 1.6

38.4 1

38.9 1.3

39.2 0.8

39.6 1

39.9 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 1.5

13 1.6

13.2 1.7

13.5 1.7

13.7 1.7

13.9 1.6

14.1 1.5

14.3 1.6

14.6 1.6

14.8 1.6

1.2 5

1.3 4.8

1.3 4.6

1.4 9.4

1.4 -0.1

1.5 4.8

1.6 4.1

1.7 4.7

1.7 4.5

1.8 4.4

17.9 1.6

18.2 1.6

18.5 1.6

18.8 1.7

19.1 1.7

19.4 1.7

19.8 1.8

20.1 1.8

20.5 1.7

20.8 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

567.3 2

578.4 2

589.6 1.9

601.1 1.9

612.4 1.9

624.1 1.9

635.5 1.8

646.9 1.8

658 1.7

668.7 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

244.6 2.4

250.3 2.3

256 2.3

262.1 2.4

268.2 2.3

274.2 2.3

280.3 2.2

286.2 2.1

292.5 2.2

299.2 2.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

7060 3321 3739

7001 3314 3687

7004 3340 3664

6990 3341 3649

6937 3374 3563

6890 3385 3505

6929 3470 3459

7012 3591 3421

7080 3669 3410

7133 3733 3400

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30.8 5.7 7.9 23

31.3 5.8 8 23.3

31.8 6.6 8.1 23.7

32.3 6.9 8.3 24

32.9 6.6 8.5 24.4

33.4 6.7 8.6 24.8

34 6.9 8.8 25.2

34.6 7 9 25.7

35.2 7.2 9.1 26.1

35.8 7.2 9.3 26.5

36.4 6.9 9.4 26.9

36.9 6.7 9.6 27.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.7 4

28.1 4.1

28.4 5

28.8 5.4

29.1 5

29.5 5

29.9 5.1

30.2 5.1

30.6 5.1

31 5.1

31.3 4.7

31.6 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

82.6 74.3

83.4 74.8

84.2 75.2

85.1 75.8

85.9 76.2

86.9 76.6

87.9 77.2

89 77.8

90 78.2

91 78.7

91.9 79.1

92.8 79.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54.2 6.1

54.5 5

54.9 4.5

55.5 4

56.1 3.5

56.7 4.1

57.4 4.6

57.9 4.4

58.5 4.4

59.1 4.2

59.7 4.1

60.3 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

144.4 1.5

146 1.2

147.5 3.3

149 4.3

150.3 4.1

151.6 3.8

152.7 3.5

154 3.4

155 3.2

156.1 3

157.1 2.9

158.1 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 8.6

4.1 7

4.1 6.2

4.1 1.1

4.1 1.4

4.1 1.3

4.1 1.5

4.2 1.4

4.2 1.4

4.2 1.7

4.2 1.8

4.2 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

140.3 1.3

141.9 1.1

143.4 3.3

144.9 4.4

146.2 4.2

147.4 3.9

148.5 3.6

149.8 3.4

150.9 3.2

151.9 3.1

152.9 2.9

153.8 2.7

16 7.5

16.2 6.7

16.6 7.6

16.9 7.1

17.3 8.1

17.7 9

17.9 8.2

18.3 8

18.5 6.9

18.7 5.8

18.8 4.9

19 4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.9 -1.1

27 -1.9

27.1 1

27.2 1.8

27.3 1.7

27.5 1.6

27.6 1.7

27.7 1.9

27.8 1.9

28 1.8

28 1.7

28.2 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.1 21.1 1.9

4.1 21.3 1.9

4.2 21.4 1.9

4.2 21.6 1.9

4.3 21.7 2

4.3 21.8 2

4.3 21.9 2

4.4 22.1 2

4.4 22.2 2

4.4 22.4 2

4.5 22.4 2

4.5 22.6 2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -1

1.6 -1

1.6 0.1

1.6 1.5

1.6 2.5

1.6 2

1.6 1.5

1.6 0.5

1.6 0.7

1.7 1.8

1.7 2.9

1.7 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.7

8.3 3.3

8.4 5.2

8.4 4.7

8.5 4.3

8.6 3.9

8.7 3.7

8.7 3.3

8.8 3.1

8.8 3

8.9 2.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 1.5

16.7 2.9

16.9 4.7

17.2 6.9

17.5 7.3

17.8 6.7

18 6.3

18.3 6

18.5 5.6

18.7 5.3

18.9 5

18.9 3.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 3.9

21.9 2.7

22 3.1

22.2 3.5

22.4 3.1

22.5 2.8

22.7 2.8

22.8 2.8

23 2.8

23.2 2.9

23.3 3

23.5 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.9 -1.7

27.4 -1

27.7 4.2

28 6.3

28.2 4.8

28.4 3.7

28.5 2.9

28.7 2.4

28.8 2.2

29 2.2

29.1 2.1

29.3 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 3.1

9.4 2.5

9.5 2.2

9.6 3.8

9.6 3.5

9.7 3.2

9.7 2.7

9.8 2.4

9.8 2.1

9.9 1.8

9.9 1.6

9.9 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 2.1

0.7 -3.3

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -2.7

0.7 -3.5

0.7 -3.1

0.6 -5.8

0.7 -2.2

0.7 1.2

0.7 4

0.7 16

12.9 -0.1

12.9 -0.8

13 0.8

13.1 2

13.1 1.9

13.2 1.8

13.2 1.8

13.3 2

13.4 2.2

13.5 2.4

13.6 2.5

13.6 2.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

373.4 2.3

375.5 2.2

377.8 2.3

380 2.3

382.3 2.4

384.6 2.4

386.8 2.4

389 2.4

391.3 2.3

393.5 2.3

395.7 2.3

397.9 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

168 0

166.9 -0.8

165.8 -1.1

165.1 -1.6

164.6 -2

164.2 -1.6

163.9 -1.2

163.8 -0.8

163.9 -0.4

164.2 0

164.6 0.4

165.2 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

86

4

3.9

3.9

4

4

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.9

4

4.1

4258 2612 1646

4633 2623 2010

4857 2634 2223

5087 2673 2414

5252 2662 2590

5189 2645 2544

5274 2582 2692

5294 2512 2783

5468 2524 2944

5475 2542 2933

5525 2547 2978

5593 2558 3035

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


O cala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.4 percent annually. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $34,200. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,989.80 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.7 percent annually, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.6 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors are expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.1 and 5.7 percent, respectively. This is followed by the Health and Education Services sector with 3.2 percent average annual growth. No sector will experience a decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 135,858 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,393 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981

Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New store in SW Ocala is Earth Fare’s 40th

• Earth Fare is a grocery chain that emphasizes organic and “clean” foods. The new store located in Southwest Ocala is 28,000 square feet. • The store employs approximately 100 workers, about 80 of whom are part-time.

• F rank Scorpiniti, president/CEO of Earth Fare, wanted to build the store after he found that “a number” of Ocala residents were driving up to the Gainesville store.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 21, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


O cala

New snack food company seeks economic incentives

• Mestizo Foods LLC wants to invest millions into the renovation of the old Golden Flake factory; however, the company also wants $15,000 from the city and county to help receive $120,000 from the state. Later, the company wants to receive $250,000 from the city and county over five years. • The company plans to invest $7.3 million on the renovation of the Golden Flake factory, which has been closed since an October fire.

• Furthermore, the company promises to spend at least $11.6 million on new equipment and to hire at least 50 new full-time employees with an average annual wage of $40,518.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, June 01, 2017

County approves medical marijuana ordinance

• Marion County will allow up to five dispensaries. This number was chosen based on the population of the county. The permits are on a first-come, first-served basis. • Commissioner David Moore wanted to “let the market decide” the number of dispensaries, but Commissioner Michelle Stone and Kathy Bryant wanted to limit the number of dispensaries, as it is an industry that is new to the market. • Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said the county should come back in a year to revisit the ordinance and see how things are going.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 16, 2017

Tourist council takes next step toward civic center

• The Tourist Development Council (TDC) is looking to hire a consultant to study the feasibility of building a convention center (special events center or civic center) in Marion County. • The study would determine location, cost, and other components. County Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said that a $25 million facility could be financed by bonds that would be paid off using tax revenue over 10 years.

88

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• Danny Gawekwad, who owns multiple hotels in Marion County, is chairman of the TDC. He met with officials at the Lakeland Center and learned that the facility has not made money in 35 years. He said, “If this can be self-sustaining, great, but if it’s not, it will be a headache.”

Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 11, 2017

HITS plans $1 million in improvements before 2018

• Horse Shows in the Sun is a 10 week-long event that has an estimated annual $94 million economic impact locally. • Before the 2018 event, HITS plans to invest more than $1 million to construct two commercial barns that will contain 48 stalls.

• Louisa Barton, who is the director of equine engagement for the Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership, said that there’s always room for improvement, and that “the CEP is extremely grateful that HITS chose Marion County as its winter home.”

Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 13, 2017


O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0 14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

6000.0 4000.0

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Ocala Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.7 -2.9 3.4 6.4

10 3.2 3.3 6.7

10.5 5 3.4 7.2

10.6 0.9 3.5 7.2

10.6 -0.7 3.6 7

11.1 4.9 3.7 7.4

11.6 4.7 3.9 7.7

12.2 4.7 4.2 8

12.9 6 4.4 8.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 -2.1

10 2.3

10.2 2.3

10.1 -0.8

9.9 -2

10.2 3.3

10.7 4.4

11.1 3.6

11.6 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

29.4 29.5

30.3 30.1

31.7 30.7

31.8 30.3

31.4 29.5

32.6 30.2

33.7 31.1

34.7 31.7

36.3 32.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 0.3

36.5 0.9

37.2 1.9

37.7 1.5

38.3 1.4

38.7 1.1

39.9 3

40.9 2.7

42.4 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

92.6 -8.6

90.3 -2.4

89.7 -0.6

91 1.4

92.8 2

95.6 3

97.5 2.1

100.8 3.4

104.2 3.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -19.3

6.4 -3.7

6.4 0.5

6.7 4.5

6.9 3

7.2 4.5

7.6 4.7

7.9 4

8 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85.9 -7.7

83.9 -2.3

83.3 -0.7

84.2 1.1

85.9 1.9

88.3 2.9

89.9 1.8

92.9 3.3

96.2 3.5

7.3 -24.3

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.4 -5.9

5.8 8.2

6.2 7.7

6.5 3.5

7 7.9

7.5 7.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 -9.9

19.8 -2

20.3 2.3

20.9 3.3

21.5 2.7

22.1 2.8

22.6 2.2

23.2 2.8

24 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 14.5 2.1

3.4 14.4 2.1

3.3 14.7 2.3

3.4 14.9 2.7

3.4 15.1 3

3.2 15.7 3.2

3.3 16.1 3.2

3.4 16.4 3.4

3.4 17.1 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.2 -16.1

1 -14.9

1 0.1

0.9 -10

0.8 -6.4

0.8 -4.9

0.8 -0.1

0.8 0.1

0.8 -0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.1 -13.3

4.2 -18.6

4.2 0.9

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.2

4.1 -2.1

4.1 -1.3

3.8 -5.9

3.9 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 -4.3

7.9 -4.4

7.9 0.3

8.6 8.3

9.1 5.6

9.5 5.1

9.2 -3.4

9.5 3.3

10.3 8.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 -4.3

13.4 4.1

13.8 3

14.3 3

14.3 0.6

16.8 17.2

17.7 5.2

18.3 3.8

19.1 4.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10 -3.8

10.1 0.9

10.1 0.5

10.3 2.2

10.6 2.7

11.1 4.7

11.9 6.7

12.6 6

12.7 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 -8.3

3.4 0.8

3.1 -6.1

2.8 -11.6

2.9 3

3 5.6

3 0.4

3.2 3.7

3.3 3.2

0.7 1.1

0.9 27.6

0.7 -24.3

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 -0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 -0.8

16.9 0.4

16.9 0.3

16.4 -3

16.2 -1.4

15.9 -1.6

13.9 -12.8

13.6 -2.2

13.9 2.2

13.8 -0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

330.9 0.3

331.6 0.2

332.7 0.3

334.5 0.5

336.3 0.6

339.7 1

344.3 1.3

349.7 1.6

354.8 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

134.2 -2.2

132.4 -1.3

131 -1

130.5 -0.4

130.8 0.2

131.6 0.7

130 -1.2

132.7 2

137.5 3.6

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.8

13.6

12.3

10.2

8.5

7.3

6.4

5.8

5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

409 391 17

496 494 2

361 359 3

407 406 1

594 582 12

733 696 37

1067 1067 1

1455 1452 3

2183 2088 96

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

90

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.7 6.5 4.8 9

14.6 6.8 5.1 9.6

15.6 6.3 5.4 10.2

16.5 6.1 5.7 10.8

17.5 5.8 6.1 11.4

18.5 5.7 6.5 12

19.5 5.8 6.8 12.7

20.6 5.4 7.2 13.4

21.7 5.2 7.6 14.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 4.9

12.7 4.8

13.2 4.1

13.7 3.8

14.2 3.5

14.7 3.4

15.2 3.4

15.6 3.1

16.1 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.1 33.7

40.1 34.8

42.1 35.7

44.1 36.6

46 37.4

48 38.1

50.1 38.9

52.1 39.6

54.1 40.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.2 4

46.1 4.3

47.9 4.1

50.1 4.4

52.3 4.4

54.6 4.3

56.8 4.1

59 4

61.4 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

107.2 2.9

109.8 2.4

112 2

113.9 1.7

115.9 1.7

117.7 1.5

119.2 1.3

120.8 1.4

122.5 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 0.9

8.2 1.3

8.3 1.2

8.3 0.6

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.2

8.4 0.1

8.4 0.1

8.4 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

99.1 3.1

101.6 2.5

103.7 2.1

105.6 1.8

107.5 1.8

109.3 1.7

110.8 1.4

112.4 1.5

114 1.4

8.1 7.4

8.5 5.7

8.8 3.3

9.1 3.3

9.4 3.5

9.7 3.1

10 2.6

10.2 2.1

10.3 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 1.1

24.6 1.1

24.8 0.8

25 0.9

25.2 0.8

25.4 0.6

25.5 0.5

25.7 0.8

25.9 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 17.5 3.8

3.5 17.8 3.9

3.6 18 4

3.6 18.2 4

3.7 18.3 4.1

3.7 18.3 4.1

3.7 18.4 4.1

3.7 18.6 4.2

3.7 18.7 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 1.7

0.8 0.9

0.8 1.4

0.8 1

0.8 1.2

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.2

0.9 0.8

0.9 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4 3.8

4.1 2.6

4.2 1.8

4.3 1.8

4.4 1.8

4.4 1.6

4.5 1.5

4.6 1.5

4.6 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11 6.1

11.5 5.2

11.9 2.8

12.3 3.3

12.8 4.2

13.3 4

13.6 2.9

14.1 3.1

14.6 3.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 2.9

20.2 2.6

20.8 3

21.3 2.3

21.7 1.9

22.1 2.1

22.6 2.1

23.1 2.4

23.7 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 4.1

13.5 2

13.8 2

14.1 1.8

14.2 1.2

14.3 0.5

14.4 0.4

14.4 0.2

14.4 0.2

3.4 3.1

3.4 1.6

3.4 1.1

3.5 1.2

3.5 0.7

3.5 0.3

3.5 0.3

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.6

0.7 -3.2

0.7 -1.2

0.7 12

0.7 -10.5

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.6

0.7 0.9

0.7 0.4

0.7 -0.2

14 1.4

14.2 1.7

14.5 1.6

14.6 1.2

14.8 1.4

15 1.3

15.2 1

15.3 0.9

15.4 0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

359.9 1.4

365 1.4

369.9 1.3

374.8 1.3

379.8 1.3

384.8 1.3

389.9 1.3

395.3 1.4

400.7 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

139.1 1.2

141.3 1.6

144.2 2.1

147.1 2

150.1 2

153.1 2

155.6 1.6

157.8 1.4

160.2 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.8

5

5.1

5.2

5.4

2885 2664 221

3127 2850 277

3203 2910 293

3316 3011 305

3383 3078 304

3420 3119 301

3473 3175 298

3368 3073 295

3274 2980 295

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.8 5.2 7.9 14.9

24.1 5.4 8.4 15.7

25.5 6.1 8.9 16.6

27 5.9 9.4 17.6

28.7 6 10 18.6

30.4 5.9 10.7 19.7

32.1 5.8 11.3 20.8

34.1 6 12 22.1

36.1 6 12.7 23.4

38.2 5.8 13.5 24.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 3.1

17.2 3.4

17.9 4.1

18.6 3.9

19.3 3.9

20 3.9

20.8 3.8

21.6 3.9

22.4 3.9

23.3 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

56.2 40.9

58.4 41.7

61.1 42.8

63.8 43.8

66.6 44.9

69.6 45.9

72.6 47

75.8 48.1

79.2 49.3

82.6 50.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.8 3.9

66.5 4.3

69.6 4.7

72.8 4.6

76.2 4.7

79.8 4.6

83.4 4.6

87.3 4.6

91.3 4.6

95.5 4.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

123.9 1.2

125.3 1.1

126.9 1.3

128.7 1.4

130.9 1.7

133 1.6

134.9 1.4

136.6 1.3

138.5 1.4

140.4 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -0.1

8.3 -1

8.3 -0.9

8.2 -0.8

8.1 -0.9

8 -1.1

7.9 -1.2

7.9 -0.9

7.8 -0.6

7.8 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

115.5 1.3

117 1.3

118.7 1.5

120.5 1.6

122.7 1.8

125 1.8

126.9 1.6

128.7 1.4

130.7 1.5

132.6 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 0.5

10.3 0

10.5 1.7

10.8 2.4

11.1 3.1

11.4 2.3

11.6 2.2

11.9 2.6

12.2 2.2

12.4 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.1 0.8

26.3 0.9

26.5 0.7

26.7 0.7

27 1.1

27.3 1

27.5 0.9

27.7 0.8

27.9 0.8

28.2 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 18.9 4.3

3.7 19.1 4.3

3.7 19.2 4.4

3.7 19.5 4.4

3.7 19.8 4.5

3.7 20.1 4.5

3.7 20.4 4.5

3.7 20.6 4.5

3.6 20.9 4.5

3.6 21.3 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.9 0.8

0.9 1.2

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.5

0.9 1.3

1 1.5

1 1.5

1 1.7

1 1.9

1 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 1.3

4.7 0.9

4.8 0.9

4.9 1.4

4.9 1.6

5 1.5

5.1 1.3

5.1 1.3

5.2 1.3

5.3 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 2.6

15.4 2.8

15.8 3.1

16.2 2.4

16.7 3.2

17.3 3.3

17.7 2.2

18 1.9

18.4 2

18.8 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 2.5

24.8 2.1

25.3 2

25.9 2.1

26.4 2.2

27.1 2.4

27.6 2.1

28.1 1.8

28.6 1.7

29 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 0.5

14.6 0.7

14.7 0.8

14.8 0.8

15 1.4

15.2 1.2

15.4 1.3

15.6 1

15.8 1.5

16 1.3

3.6 0.3

3.6 0.3

3.6 0.7

3.7 1.2

3.7 1.3

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.4

3.9 1.3

3.9 1.3

4 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -0.3

0.7 4.4

0.8 6.6

0.9 14.4

0.9 1.8

0.9 6.5

1 6.3

1.1 6.3

1.1 6.3

1.2 6.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 0.6

15.6 0.5

15.7 0.8

15.8 0.9

16 0.8

16.1 0.8

16.2 0.8

16.4 0.9

16.5 0.9

16.7 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

406.1 1.4

411.8 1.4

417.7 1.4

423.7 1.4

430 1.5

436.3 1.5

442.6 1.5

449.1 1.5

455.6 1.5

462.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

162.7 1.6

165.4 1.7

168.3 1.7

171.2 1.8

174.1 1.7

177.1 1.7

180.2 1.7

183.4 1.7

186.7 1.8

190.1 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

3185 2897 288

3108 2826 281

3180 2899 281

3216 2931 285

3264 2980 285

3094 2810 285

3189 2903 286

3322 3033 289

3346 3054 292

3379 3092 288


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

40.4 5.7 14.2 26.1

42.8 5.9 15.1 27.7

45.4 6.1 16 29.3

48.1 6 17 31.1

50.9 5.8 18 32.8

53.8 5.7 19.1 34.6

56.9 5.8 20.3 36.5

60.2 5.9 21.6 38.6

63.7 5.8 23 40.7

67.3 5.7 24.5 42.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 3.6

25.1 3.8

26 3.9

27.1 3.9

28.1 3.7

29.1 3.6

30.2 3.7

31.3 3.8

32.5 3.7

33.6 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

86.1 51.5

89.9 52.6

93.9 53.9

98.2 55.3

102.4 56.5

106.7 57.7

111.3 59

116.3 60.4

121.3 61.8

126.4 63.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

99.8 4.6

104.4 4.6

109.4 4.7

114.4 4.6

119.6 4.5

125 4.6

130.8 4.6

136.9 4.7

143.3 4.7

150 4.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

142.2 1.3

144 1.3

146 1.4

148.1 1.5

150.3 1.5

152.5 1.5

154.9 1.6

157.5 1.7

160.1 1.7

162.6 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 -0.6

7.7 -0.7

7.6 -0.7

7.6 -0.7

7.5 -0.6

7.5 -0.8

7.4 -0.8

7.4 -0.9

7.3 -1.1

7.2 -1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

134.4 1.4

136.3 1.4

138.3 1.5

140.5 1.6

142.8 1.6

145 1.6

147.5 1.7

150.1 1.8

152.8 1.8

155.5 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 1.9

12.9 1.6

13.1 2

13.4 1.8

13.6 2

13.9 1.9

14.2 1.8

14.5 2.6

14.9 2.4

15.2 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 0.7

28.6 0.8

28.8 0.8

29 0.7

29.3 0.9

29.5 0.7

29.8 1

30.1 1

30.4 0.9

30.7 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 21.6 4.5

3.6 21.9 4.5

3.6 22.2 4.5

3.6 22.5 4.5

3.6 22.9 4.5

3.6 23.2 4.5

3.7 23.6 4.5

3.7 23.9 4.5

3.8 24.2 4.5

3.8 24.5 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1 1.5

1.1 1.4

1.1 1.2

1.1 1.2

1.1 1.7

1.1 2

1.1 1.8

1.2 1.5

1.2 1

1.2 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 1.2

5.4 1.3

5.5 1.2

5.5 1.4

5.6 1.5

5.7 1.5

5.8 1.4

5.9 1.4

6 1.5

6.1 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 2

19.6 1.9

20 2.2

20.4 2.4

21 2.7

21.6 2.7

22.2 3.1

23 3.3

23.8 3.4

24.5 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 1.5

30 1.8

30.5 1.8

31.2 2

31.8 2.1

32.5 2.1

33.1 2

33.8 2

34.5 2.2

35.3 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 1.4

16.4 1.2

16.7 1.5

16.9 1.3

17.1 1.4

17.3 1.1

17.6 1.4

17.7 0.9

17.9 0.8

18 0.5

4 1

4.1 1.2

4.1 1.3

4.2 1.2

4.2 1.3

4.3 1.2

4.3 1.1

4.4 1.2

4.4 1.3

4.5 1.3

1.3 6.1

1.3 5.9

1.4 5.7

1.6 12.2

1.6 -0.8

1.7 6.1

1.8 5

1.9 5.9

2 5.7

2.1 5.6

16.8 0.9

17 0.9

17.1 0.8

17.2 0.8

17.3 0.8

17.5 0.7

17.6 0.8

17.7 0.8

17.9 0.7

18 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

469 1.5

475.8 1.5

482.7 1.4

489.6 1.4

496.6 1.4

503.9 1.5

511 1.4

517.9 1.4

525.3 1.4

532.5 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

193.4 1.8

196.7 1.7

200.1 1.7

203.7 1.8

207.2 1.7

210.7 1.7

214.2 1.7

217.6 1.6

221.2 1.6

225 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

6

6

6

5.9

5.9

3342 3061 281

3300 3024 277

3320 3045 275

3298 3024 274

3312 3044 268

3317 3054 264

3394 3134 261

3506 3246 259

3550 3289 260

3584 3324 260

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.8 6 4.4 8.4

13 5.9 4.5 8.5

13.2 6 4.6 8.6

13.4 6.4 4.6 8.7

13.6 6.4 4.7 8.9

13.8 6.5 4.8 9

14.1 6.7 4.9 9.2

14.3 6.8 5 9.3

14.5 6.9 5 9.5

14.8 6.9 5.1 9.6

15 6.6 5.2 9.8

15.2 6.5 5.3 9.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 4.3

11.6 4.2

11.8 4.5

11.9 4.9

12 4.9

12.2 4.8

12.3 4.9

12.5 4.9

12.6 4.9

12.8 4.9

12.9 4.5

13 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.1 32.5

36.5 32.7

36.9 33

37.4 33.3

37.8 33.5

38.3 33.8

38.9 34.1

39.4 34.4

39.9 34.7

40.4 35

40.9 35.2

41.3 35.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.3 4.1

42.6 3.1

42.9 3.1

43.4 3.5

43.9 3.7

44.4 4.2

44.9 4.6

45.4 4.4

45.8 4.4

46.3 4.3

46.8 4.1

47.2 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

103.8 3.7

104.7 3.3

105.4 2.8

106.2 3.2

106.9 3.1

107.6 2.8

108.2 2.6

108.9 2.5

109.5 2.4

110.1 2.4

110.7 2.3

111.2 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8 2.8

8 1.5

8 0.8

8.1 0.7

8.1 0.9

8.1 0.9

8.1 1.1

8.2 1.1

8.2 1

8.2 1.4

8.2 1.5

8.3 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

95.7 3.8

96.6 3.4

97.4 3

98.2 3.4

98.8 3.2

99.5 3

100 2.7

100.7 2.6

101.3 2.5

101.9 2.4

102.4 2.4

102.9 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 7.8

7.5 7.4

7.7 7.3

7.8 6.8

8 7.4

8.2 8

8.3 7.2

8.4 7.1

8.5 6.2

8.6 5.2

8.6 4.4

8.7 3.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24 4.6

24.1 3.4

24.2 1.4

24.2 1.3

24.3 1.2

24.3 1.1

24.4 1

24.5 1.2

24.5 1.2

24.6 1.1

24.6 1

24.7 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 17 3.7

3.4 17.1 3.7

3.4 17.2 3.8

3.5 17.4 3.8

3.5 17.4 3.8

3.5 17.5 3.8

3.5 17.6 3.9

3.5 17.7 3.9

3.5 17.7 3.9

3.5 17.8 3.9

3.5 17.8 3.9

3.6 17.9 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -0.2

0.8 0.1

0.8 -0.8

0.8 1.5

0.8 2.4

0.8 1.7

0.8 1.1

0.8 -0.1

0.8 0.1

0.8 1.3

0.8 2.3

0.8 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 0.3

3.9 2.7

3.9 4.1

4 4.5

4 4

4 3.6

4.1 3.1

4.1 3

4.1 2.7

4.1 2.5

4.2 2.3

4.2 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 10.6

10.4 7.6

10.6 6.6

10.7 5.9

10.9 6.4

11.1 6.1

11.2 5.9

11.4 5.8

11.5 5.3

11.6 5

11.7 4.7

11.7 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 4.9

19.2 4.8

19.4 3.7

19.5 3.4

19.6 3

19.7 2.6

19.8 2.6

20 2.5

20.1 2.5

20.3 2.6

20.4 2.7

20.6 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 0.6

12.9 1.2

13 2.9

13.2 5.8

13.2 4.5

13.3 3.4

13.4 2.7

13.4 2.1

13.5 2

13.6 2

13.6 1.9

13.7 1.9

3.2 3.1

3.3 4.6

3.3 3.5

3.3 3.6

3.3 3.4

3.4 3

3.4 2.5

3.4 2.1

3.4 1.8

3.4 1.5

3.4 1.1

3.4 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -2.2

0.7 -3.1

0.7 -3.9

0.7 -3.6

0.6 -5.4

0.7 -2.4

0.7 0.4

0.7 2.7

0.7 11.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 -1.3

13.8 -0.9

13.9 0.2

13.9 1.5

14 1.5

14 1.3

14.1 1.3

14.1 1.4

14.2 1.6

14.3 1.9

14.3 2

14.4 1.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

354.1 1.5

355.4 1.4

356.7 1.4

357.9 1.4

359.2 1.4

360.5 1.4

361.8 1.4

363.1 1.4

364.4 1.4

365.6 1.4

366.9 1.4

368.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.6 4.5

137.8 3.8

138.1 2.4

138.4 1.5

138.8 0.9

139.3 1.1

139.8 1.3

140.3 1.4

140.9 1.5

141.6 1.6

142.3 1.8

143 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

94

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

2075 1989 87

2298 2171 128

2533 2367 166

2698 2505 193

2841 2620 221

2955 2732 223

3045 2798 247

3101 2836 266

3125 2844 281

3137 2858 278

3144 2862 282

3170 2883 287

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.7 percent annually, the highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,300. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent, the third lowest of the studied areas. The average annual wage will be at a level of $54,200. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 1.9 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 131,399.50 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.2 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, and the Leisure sector at 3.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,301,264 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.6% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 47,012 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New $65M-plus Lake Mary luxury apartments to go vertical this summer

• As Lake Mary’s Midtown district has begun to develop, construction on a Drake at Midtown, a $65 million-plus upscale, five-story, 263-unit apartment community, is set to begin vertical construction in June.

• The complex is part of Griffin Farms at Midtown, Unicorp National Development Inc.’s $200 million mixed-use development.

• The project, which is estimated to be complete in June 2018, boasts many amenities, including two clubhouses, a 2,180-square-foot pool with spa, bocce ball court, and a fire pit.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 10, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

95


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Two local Lockheed Martin divisions land contracts totaling $48.8M

• Lockheed Martin’s Missiles & Fire Control division entered a $31.1 million contract to provide production, systems engineering, and tooling and test equipment support for the U.S. Air Force’s Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile. • Lockheed’s Rotary & Mission Systems division was awarded a $17.7 million contract from the U.S.Navy for production of seven electronic Consolidated Automated Support Systems (eCass).

• The work on the Air Force contract will all be performed in Orlando and is scheduled for completion on August 31, 2019, while the Navy’s contract has a November 2019 completion date.

• The company already has over 7,000 employees in Orlando, and they are opening up more positions to keep up with the increasing demand from new contracts.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 28, 2017

Central Florida Expressway Authority’s largest plan ever to create 11,000-plus jobs

• The Central Florida Expressway Authority has adopted a $1.6 billion work plan to be executed over the course of five years.

• The plan includes provisions for the widening of 40 miles of existing expressways, 60 miles of resurfacing, a new toll system, and new safety initiatives.

• Larger investments planned include completing CFX’s sections of Wekiva Parkway for its scheduled full opening in spring 2018 and setting aside $230 million for the state to use to fund the I-4 Ultimate State Road 408/I-4 Interchange project. • These projects are believed to create over 11,000 jobs over the course of five years, contribute $1 billion in GDP for the local economy, and save 32 hours traveling on the expressways each year.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 12, 2017

96

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Wal-Mart to create hundreds of jobs in Florida with nine new stores • Wal-Mart has recently announced that they plan to invest $450 million in Florida, with a “substantial” portion going towards Central Florida, to create 800 jobs by remodeling 40 existing stores and opening nine new ones.

• O ne of the new locations will open in Orlando in fiscal 2017, and construction on a new distribution center for perishable goods in Cocoa is planned to begin later this year as well.

• These developments have come after Wal-Mart hired over 3,000 employees in Florida by opening more than 20 new stores and remodeling 30 stores throughout the state last year.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 25, 2017 Tourist tax revenue up 15.8% in April

• Orange County’s tourist tax revenue increased to $24.3 million in April, which is up 15.8% for the same period last year. • As for resort tax revenue, the county has collected $155.4 million year to date, which is up 5.5% for this time a year ago.

• This money is used to promote tourism in Orange County by helping fund projects to attract visitors and upgrade existing tourism facilities.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 2, 2017


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0%

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 350000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0 250000.0

8.0%

200000.0

6.0%

150000.0

4.0% 2.0%

0.6

100000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 2200.0

(Thousands)

2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Orlando Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

97


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

68.1 -4.9 42 26.1

71.1 4.4 42.3 28.8

75.5 6.2 43.7 31.8

78.3 3.6 46.1 32.1

80.6 3 48.1 32.5

86.2 7 51.4 34.8

92.2 7 55.5 36.8

98 6.2 59.6 38.3

104.9 7.1 64.6 40.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.3 -4

70.7 3.6

73.2 3.4

74.5 1.9

75.7 1.6

79.7 5.3

85 6.6

89.4 5.1

94.2 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

32.2 32.3

33.1 33

34.6 33.5

35.1 33.4

35.4 33.3

37 34.2

38.6 35.6

40 36.5

41.9 37.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.9 -0.6

42.5 1.3

43.3 2

44.5 2.8

44.9 0.9

46.2 2.7

47.7 3.4

49.2 3.2

51.1 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

997.5 -6.3

992.4 -0.5

1005.3 1.3

1031.5 2.6

1065.3 3.3

1108.8 4.1

1157.5 4.4

1206.3 4.2

1258.4 4.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

38.7 -9.6

38 -1.8

38 0

38 -0.1

38.2 0.5

39.6 3.7

41 3.5

42.4 3.6

44.1 3.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

958.8 -6.2

954.4 -0.5

967.3 1.4

993.6 2.7

1027.2 3.4

1069.2 4.1

1116.5 4.4

1163.9 4.2

1214.3 4.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

54.5 -25

47.7 -12.5

45.2 -5.2

46.2 2.2

51.2 10.8

55.9 9.3

61 9

68 11.6

74.2 9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

186 -7.4

186 0

191.9 3.1

198 3.2

204.3 3.2

212.8 4.1

220.9 3.8

227.2 2.8

235.3 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.4 123.3 30.2

39 128.1 30.9

40.1 132.9 31.3

41.9 138.6 32.3

43.4 142.7 34.8

44.2 145.5 37.5

47.2 151.4 38.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4

24 0.9

23.6 -1.7

23.6 -0.2

23.9 1.3

24 0.6

23.8 -0.8

23.2 -2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65.9 -5.3

65.1 -1.1

65.8 1.1

67.2 2.1

69.7 3.7

70.4 0.9

71.1 1.1

74.1 4.1

77.3 4.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

164.1 -7

161.1 -1.8

161.8 0.5

169.2 4.6

175.6 3.8

183.5 4.5

194.9 6.2

205.3 5.3

216.8 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

118.4 1.7

120.9 2

123.5 2.2

128.1 3.7

131.4 2.6

135.7 3.3

143.2 5.5

148.4 3.6

152.8 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

203.4 4

210.1 3.3

218.6 4

231 5.7

240.2 4

249.7 4

265.9 6.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.4 -9

38.5 -2.3

36.5 -5.2

34.8 -4.7

36 3.3

38 5.6

41 8

44.2 7.6

45.6 3.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.7

12 -6.1

12.3 2.7

12.4 0.6

12.6 1.6

12.9 2.8

14 8.4

14.5 3.2

103.6 -1.5

102.9 -0.7

103.1 0.2

104 0.9

104.5 0.6

105.5 0.9

107.3 1.7

109.2 1.8

108.7 -0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2116.1 1.2

2145.1 1.4

2183 1.8

2231.4 2.2

2276.9 2

2330.8 2.4

2389.5 2.5

2448.5 2.5

2504.4 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1127.6 -1.1

1137.3 0.9

1146.8 0.8

1162.7 1.4

1179.1 1.4

1204.1 2.1

1219.1 1.2

1254.8 2.9

1300.1 3.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

98

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.5

11.1

10

8.4

7

6

5.1

4.5

3.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4492 3767 725

5014 4419 594

5763 4512 1251

10911 7239 3671

14815 9063 5752

14436 9693 4743

19188 12024 7163

22116 15052 7063

24891 15166 9725

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

112.2 7 69.5 42.7

119.7 6.7 74.3 45.5

126.8 5.9 78.6 48.2

134.3 5.9 83.3 51

142.1 5.8 88.4 53.7

149.9 5.5 93.4 56.5

157.9 5.3 98.4 59.5

166.1 5.2 103.5 62.6

174.3 5 108.8 65.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

99.2 5.4

103.8 4.6

107.7 3.7

111.5 3.6

115.3 3.4

119 3.2

122.6 3

126.1 2.9

129.5 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43.9 38.8

46.1 39.9

48 40.8

50.1 41.6

52.1 42.3

54.2 43

56.2 43.6

58.2 44.2

60.2 44.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.1 3.8

55.2 3.9

57.2 3.7

59.5 4

61.8 4

64.3 3.9

66.7 3.8

69 3.6

71.4 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1305.2 3.7

1341.6 2.8

1370.4 2.1

1397 1.9

1424.2 1.9

1449.3 1.8

1470.9 1.5

1494.6 1.6

1518.5 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 0.9

45.1 1.4

45.7 1.3

46 0.7

46.3 0.7

46.5 0.4

46.7 0.4

46.9 0.5

47.2 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1260.7 3.8

1296.5 2.8

1324.7 2.2

1350.9 2

1377.8 2

1402.8 1.8

1424.2 1.5

1447.7 1.6

1471.3 1.6

80.8 8.8

86 6.5

89.3 3.8

92.9 3.9

96.6 4

100.1 3.6

103.3 3.2

106.2 2.8

108.1 1.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

238.5 1.4

241.3 1.2

243.4 0.9

245.5 0.8

247.4 0.8

249 0.6

250.3 0.5

252.5 0.9

254.2 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

48.8 155.2 39.6

49.9 157.7 40.2

51.1 159.5 40.6

51.9 160.8 40.9

52.6 161.7 41.1

53.2 162.4 41.2

53.7 163.1 41.2

54.2 164.6 41.7

54.5 166.1 42.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 1.8

23.9 1.3

24.3 1.5

24.6 1.2

25 1.5

25.4 1.8

25.8 1.6

26.2 1.3

26.5 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

79.6 2.9

81 1.8

81.9 1.1

83 1.4

84.1 1.4

85.2 1.3

86.3 1.2

87.3 1.2

88.4 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

232.1 7

245.4 5.7

253 3.1

261.9 3.5

272.9 4.2

283.9 4.1

292.4 3

302.1 3.3

313.5 3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

157.5 3

161.4 2.5

165.8 2.7

169.2 2

172 1.6

175.1 1.8

178.5 1.9

182.5 2.2

186.8 2.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

277.1 4.2

283.3 2.2

289.5 2.2

295.2 2

298.9 1.3

301.1 0.7

302.9 0.6

304.5 0.5

305.7 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 3.3

47.9 1.7

48.4 1.1

49 1.3

49.4 0.7

49.6 0.4

49.8 0.4

50.2 1

50.6 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14 -3.1

13.9 -1.2

14.6 5.7

13.9 -5.3

14 0.6

14.1 0.7

14.2 0.9

14.3 1

14.4 0.8

110.4 1.6

112.5 1.8

114.3 1.7

115.9 1.4

117.6 1.5

119.3 1.4

120.7 1.2

122 1.1

123.1 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2554.3 2

2599.3 1.8

2641.6 1.6

2683.2 1.6

2724.9 1.6

2767.3 1.6

2810.2 1.6

2853.7 1.5

2897.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1312.3 0.9

1328.3 1.2

1347.8 1.5

1362 1.1

1374.4 0.9

1387.8 1

1401.4 1

1415.5 1

1432.3 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

4

24065 14986 9079

23702 14810 8892

24628 15071 9558

25719 15671 10048

26362 16035 10327

26909 16340 10568

27384 16718 10666

27030 16266 10764

26756 15791 10965

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

99


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

182.8 4.9 114.1 68.7

192.4 5.3 120.1 72.3

204 6 127.3 76.7

215.9 5.8 134.8 81.1

228.9 6 143.3 85.6

242.3 5.9 151.9 90.4

256.3 5.8 160.7 95.6

271.3 5.9 170 101.3

287.1 5.9 179.9 107.3

303.8 5.8 190.4 113.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

133.1 2.7

137.4 3.3

142.9 4

148.3 3.8

154.1 3.9

159.9 3.8

165.8 3.7

172.1 3.8

178.6 3.8

185.2 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

62.1 45.2

64.4 46

67.3 47.1

70.2 48.2

73.3 49.4

76.5 50.5

79.8 51.6

83.2 52.8

86.8 54

90.5 55.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

73.9 3.4

76.7 3.8

80 4.3

83.4 4.2

86.9 4.2

90.4 4

94.2 4.2

98.2 4.2

102.3 4.2

106.6 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1539.4 1.4

1561.1 1.4

1586.7 1.6

1612.5 1.6

1643.8 1.9

1675 1.9

1701.7 1.6

1726.9 1.5

1754 1.6

1782.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

47.4 0.3

47.2 -0.4

47 -0.3

46.9 -0.3

46.7 -0.4

46.5 -0.6

46.2 -0.6

46 -0.4

46 -0.1

45.9 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1492 1.4

1513.9 1.5

1539.7 1.7

1565.6 1.7

1597.1 2

1628.5 2

1655.5 1.7

1680.9 1.5

1708.1 1.6

1736.4 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

109.6 1.4

110.6 1

113.5 2.6

117.1 3.2

121.6 3.8

125.2 2.9

128.7 2.8

132.9 3.2

136.6 2.8

140.3 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

256.1 0.7

258.1 0.8

259.8 0.6

261.4 0.6

264.1 1

266.4 0.9

268.4 0.8

270.1 0.6

272 0.7

273.9 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

54.8 167.6 42.4

54.8 169.2 42.4

54.7 170.6 42.6

54.8 172.6 42.7

55.2 175.5 42.9

55.6 178 43

55.8 180.5 43.1

55.9 182.6 43

55.9 185.5 42.7

56 188.4 42.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 1.3

27.3 1.8

27.9 2.2

28.5 2

29 1.9

29.6 2

30.2 2

30.9 2.2

31.6 2.4

32.3 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

89.2 1

89.9 0.8

90.7 0.8

91.7 1.1

92.8 1.3

93.9 1.2

94.8 1

95.7 0.9

96.6 0.9

97.5 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

321.8 2.6

331.2 2.9

342.2 3.3

350.8 2.5

362.6 3.4

375 3.4

383.6 2.3

391.4 2

400 2.2

410 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

191.2 2.3

194.9 2

198.6 1.9

202.4 1.9

206.5 2.1

211 2.2

214.9 1.9

218.6 1.7

221.8 1.5

225.3 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

307.9 0.7

310.9 1

314.1 1

317.3 1

322.3 1.6

326.9 1.4

331.6 1.5

335.6 1.2

341 1.6

345.9 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 0.4

51 0.4

51.4 0.7

52 1.2

52.7 1.3

53.4 1.3

54.1 1.4

54.8 1.3

55.5 1.3

56.2 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 0.7

14.9 2.3

15.3 3.1

16.8 9.3

16.5 -1.6

17 3

17.5 2.9

18 2.9

18.5 2.9

19 2.8

124.1 0.8

125 0.7

126.2 1

127.6 1.1

128.9 1

130.3 1

131.5 1

133 1.1

134.4 1.1

135.9 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2941.5 1.5

2985.7 1.5

3030.3 1.5

3075.3 1.5

3120.8 1.5

3166.8 1.5

3213.1 1.5

3260 1.5

3307.2 1.5

3355 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1450.2 1.3

1471.7 1.5

1495.2 1.6

1519.2 1.6

1542.7 1.5

1566.6 1.6

1591.1 1.6

1615.7 1.5

1642.4 1.7

1669.4 1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

100

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.2

26359 15333 11027

25934 14919 11015

26429 15269 11160

26897 15447 11450

27358 15694 11663

26657 14791 11866

27348 15264 12083

28299 15958 12342

28694 16111 12582

28869 16327 12542

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

321 5.7 201.2 119.8

339.5 5.7 212.7 126.8

359.3 5.8 224.9 134.4

380.2 5.8 237.8 142.3

402.9 6 252.5 150.4

426.6 5.9 267.8 158.7

451.9 5.9 284.4 167.5

479.1 6 302.2 177

508.4 6.1 321.4 187

539.2 6.1 341.8 197.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

191.9 3.6

198.9 3.7

206.3 3.7

214 3.7

222.3 3.9

230.7 3.8

239.5 3.8

249 3.9

258.9 4

269.1 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

94.3 56.4

98.3 57.6

102.6 58.9

107.1 60.3

111.9 61.8

116.9 63.2

122.1 64.7

127.6 66.3

133.5 68

139.5 69.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

111 4.2

115.7 4.2

120.4 4.1

125.3 4

130.8 4.4

136.5 4.3

142.4 4.3

148.5 4.3

155 4.4

161.9 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1808.3 1.5

1834.5 1.4

1863.4 1.6

1894.1 1.6

1926.6 1.7

1958.6 1.7

1993.3 1.8

2030.3 1.9

2069.1 1.9

2107.5 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

45.9 -0.2

45.8 -0.2

45.7 -0.2

45.6 -0.2

45.6 -0.1

45.4 -0.3

45.3 -0.3

45.1 -0.3

44.9 -0.5

44.5 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1762.5 1.5

1788.7 1.5

1817.7 1.6

1848.5 1.7

1881 1.8

1913.2 1.7

1948 1.8

1985.1 1.9

2024.2 2

2063 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

143.9 2.5

147.2 2.3

151.1 2.7

154.7 2.4

158.7 2.6

162.6 2.5

167 2.7

172.8 3.5

178.4 3.3

183.7 3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

275.5 0.6

277.2 0.6

279.1 0.7

280.8 0.6

283 0.8

284.7 0.6

287 0.8

289.4 0.8

291.8 0.8

294.4 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

56 191.2 42.1

56 193.8 41.8

56.1 196.8 41.5

56.4 199.6 41.3

56.9 202.9 41

57.6 205.2 40.8

58.5 208.1 40.5

59.5 210.7 40.2

60.6 213.4 39.9

61.8 215.9 39.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

33 2

33.6 1.8

34.1 1.6

34.7 1.5

35.3 2

36.2 2.3

36.9 2

37.5 1.8

38.1 1.6

38.7 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

98.3 0.8

99.1 0.9

99.9 0.8

100.8 0.9

101.9 1

102.9 1

103.8 0.9

104.9 1

105.9 1

107.1 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

418.8 2.1

427.5 2.1

437.4 2.3

448.1 2.4

460.3 2.7

473 2.8

487.3 3

503.7 3.4

521.3 3.5

538.7 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

228.4 1.3

232 1.6

235.5 1.5

240.1 1.9

244.8 2

249.4 1.9

253.5 1.6

257.3 1.5

261.3 1.6

265.5 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

351 1.5

355.7 1.3

361.4 1.6

366.5 1.4

372.1 1.5

376.6 1.2

382 1.4

386 1

390.6 1.2

394.7 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

56.8 1

57.4 1.1

58.1 1.2

58.8 1.1

59.4 1.2

60.1 1

60.7 1.1

61.5 1.3

62.4 1.3

63.3 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 2.7

20.1 2.6

20.6 2.5

21.8 6.2

21.6 -1.1

22.2 2.7

22.7 2.1

23.3 2.6

23.8 2.5

24.4 2.5

137.3 1.1

138.9 1.1

140.5 1.2

142.1 1.2

143.8 1.2

145.5 1.1

147.1 1.1

148.8 1.2

150.6 1.2

152.4 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3403.2 1.4

3451.8 1.4

3500.8 1.4

3550.1 1.4

3599.7 1.4

3649.2 1.4

3701.9 1.4

3755.2 1.4

3809.4 1.4

3864 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1696.1 1.6

1722.5 1.6

1749.2 1.5

1777.8 1.6

1805.6 1.6

1833.6 1.6

1862.5 1.6

1890.5 1.5

1920.5 1.6

1952.1 1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

28609 16215 12393

28401 16070 12331

28600 16211 12389

28600 16113 12487

28569 16230 12338

28561 16286 12275

28995 16713 12282

29639 17325 12314

30031 17594 12437

30366 17805 12561

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

104 7.3 64 40

105.8 6.7 65.2 40.6

107.5 7.1 66.3 41.2

109.5 7.2 67.7 41.8

111.2 6.9 68.9 42.3

113.1 6.9 70.1 43

115.1 7 71.4 43.7

117 6.9 72.6 44.5

118.8 6.8 73.7 45.1

120.7 6.7 74.8 45.9

122.4 6.3 75.9 46.5

124.1 6.1 76.9 47.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

93.6 5.6

94.8 4.9

96 5.6

97.5 5.7

98.6 5.4

99.8 5.2

101 5.2

102.3 4.9

103.3 4.8

104.4 4.7

105.3 4.2

106.2 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

41.6 37.5

42.1 37.8

42.6 38.1

43.2 38.4

43.6 38.7

44.2 39

44.7 39.3

45.3 39.6

45.8 39.8

46.3 40.1

46.8 40.3

47.3 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51 4.3

51.3 3.2

51.7 3.2

52.3 3.5

52.8 3.5

53.3 3.9

53.9 4.3

54.4 4.1

54.9 4

55.4 3.9

55.9 3.6

56.4 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1251.2 4.4

1265.8 4.2

1278.3 4.6

1290.9 4.3

1301.1 4

1310.3 3.5

1318.5 3.1

1329.2 3

1337.6 2.8

1346.4 2.8

1353.2 2.6

1359.4 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.1 4.1

44.1 2.8

44.2 3.7

44.3 0.7

44.5 1

44.6 1

44.7 1.2

44.9 1.3

45 1.2

45.2 1.4

45.4 1.5

45.5 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1207.1 4.4

1221.6 4.3

1234.2 4.7

1246.6 4.4

1256.6 4.1

1265.7 3.6

1273.8 3.2

1284.3 3

1292.6 2.9

1301.2 2.8

1307.8 2.7

1313.9 2.3

73.2 8.5

74.8 8.3

76.7 10.5

78.4 8.7

79.9 9.2

81.6 9.1

83.1 8.3

84.5 7.8

85.6 7.1

86.6 6.1

87.5 5.2

88.2 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

234.6 3.7

235.9 3.1

236.9 3.4

237.4 1.6

238.1 1.5

239 1.3

239.6 1.1

240.5 1.3

241 1.2

241.6 1.1

242 1

242.9 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

46.9 150.8 38.1

47.4 152.1 38.5

48 153 39

48.4 154.4 39.4

48.7 154.8 39.6

49 155.5 39.7

49.2 155.9 39.8

49.6 157 40

49.8 157.5 40.1

50.1 158.2 40.3

50.3 158.3 40.4

50.7 159 40.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 -2.6

23.2 -3.1

23.2 -2.1

23.6 1.4

23.8 2.5

23.6 1.9

23.5 1.5

23.7 0.3

23.9 0.5

24 1.7

24.1 2.6

24.2 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

77 4.6

77.7 4.3

78.4 4.4

79 3.5

79.4 3

79.8 2.7

80.2 2.3

80.6 2

80.9 1.9

81.1 1.7

81.4 1.6

81.6 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

214.7 6

218.7 5.4

222 6.2

226.7 7

230.8 7.5

234.1 7

236.7 6.6

241 6.3

244.3 5.8

247.1 5.6

249.1 5.2

250 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

152.2 3.3

153.7 3

154.8 2.9

156.1 3.7

157.1 3.2

157.9 2.7

158.8 2.5

159.9 2.4

160.8 2.4

162 2.5

163 2.7

164.2 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

263.8 6.3

268.4 7.5

272.1 7

274.7 6

276.1 4.7

278 3.6

279.6 2.8

281.1 2.3

282.2 2.2

284.1 2.2

285.6 2.1

287.1 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.3 2.7

45.8 3

46.2 4.2

46.7 3.8

47 3.6

47.2 3.1

47.4 2.6

47.7 2.1

47.8 1.8

47.9 1.6

48 1.2

48.2 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 4

14.5 2.4

14.4 -0.3

14.2 -2

14.1 -3

13.9 -3.8

13.9 -3.5

13.9 -2.5

13.9 -1.4

13.9 -0.6

13.8 -0.3

13.7 -0.9

108.5 -0.5

109 -1.2

109.5 0

109.8 1.8

110.3 1.7

110.6 1.5

111 1.4

111.6 1.6

112.2 1.7

112.8 2

113.3 2.1

113.8 2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2498.1 2.3

2511.4 2.3

2523.8 2.2

2536.5 2.1

2548.7 2

2560.3 1.9

2571.7 1.9

2583 1.8

2594.1 1.8

2604.8 1.7

2615.3 1.7

2625.9 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1301.1 4.2

1302.6 3.6

1303.7 2.8

1307.1 1.1

1310.3 0.7

1314 0.9

1317.8 1.1

1321.7 1.1

1325.6 1.2

1330.5 1.3

1335.4 1.3

1340.6 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

102

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

24809 15095 9714

24759 14951 9808

24544 14881 9663

24507 14974 9533

24437 14988 9449

23720 15043 8677

23598 14940 8659

23492 14856 8635

23756 14769 8987

23684 14799 8885

23876 14816 9060

24132 14890 9242

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $40,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $56,400. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 20,169.15 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.8 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.9 percent, followed by the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, both averaging at 2.3 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with average annual growth rates of -0.7.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 268,804 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.1% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,076 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Brevard County Government – 2,380

Brevard property values rise in ‘robust’ market

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

• Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055

Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

• Recently released data from the office of Brevard County, Property Appraiser Dan Blickley shows that property values sustained a strong increase through 2016. • General fund taxable value of property in Brevard stood at $34.29 billion at the end of 2016, an increase of 7.5 percent from $31.91 billion at the start of the year. • This bodes well for the county’s budget, as revenues from property taxes this year will increase. The county will also see new tax revenues from a healthy number of ongoing construction projects.

Source: Florida Today, June 3, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Port Canaveral commissioners proceed with plan to repair cargo piers

• Port Canaveral commissioners voted unanimously to seek bids for design work on a project to repair the port’s North Cargo Piers 1 and 2. • The project is expected to cost around $2.5 million and take six to eight months. It will also create about 50 temporary construction jobs. • Morton Salt and Seaport Canaveral, the tenants of the two piers, are working with the port to ensure that cargo operations are virtually uninterrupted while the repairs take place.

Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017

Port land deal with Wal-Mart clears way for 450-employee distribution center

• Wal-Mart has bought a 271-acre site previously owned by Port Canaveral and has committed to building a distribution center and refrigerated warehouse complex on the land.

• The port sold the land for $5.75 million after buying it for only $1.95 million in 2014. In 2016, Wal-Mart was considering buying just 130 acres, but eventually bought all 271. • The presence of the distribution center should increase cargo business for the port, as well as create jobs in the region and pave the way for more development in the surrounding communities.

Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017 Space Florida avoids budget cuts

• Space Florida, which is tasked with growing aerospace business in the state, received the same funding ($19.5 million) that it did last fiscal year in this year’s state budget. • The agency’s board of directors is relieved to have avoided the legislature’s attack on economic development agencies, as the legislature cut Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida’s budgets by $7.5 million and $25 million, respectively.

104

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• The budget-slashing has largely been a result of negative news surrounding Visit Florida, which orchestrated a controversial $1 million deal with Miami rapper Pitbull.

Source: Florida Today, May 19, 2017

Winners and losers in Brevard’s new budget

• The release of Brevard County’s budget plan for 2017 revealed significant budget cuts for many organizations. Officials cited money needed for roads as a main reason for the cutbacks. • Among the biggest losers are Brevard Cultural Alliance, which lost $20,000, and emergency financial services, which saw a budget cut of a whopping $168,000.

• Economic development agencies avoided cuts in the county despite vicious cutbacks at the state level. Several other proposed cuts were not approved, and some were disappointed that the budget was not reduced more.

Source: Florida Today, April 29, 2017


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

45000.0

8.0%

30000.0

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

20000.0

320.0

10000.0

8.0% 6.0%

280.0

4.0%

260.0

2.0%

240.0

0.0%

220.0

-2.0%

200.0

-4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Real Personal Income

300.0

180.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands)

3

40000.0 35000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

2.5

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.4 -3.9 9.2 10.3

20.0 3.0 9.3 10.8

20.9 4.6 9.3 11.6

20.9 -0.4 9.3 11.5

21.0 0.6 9.4 11.6

21.8 4.1 9.5 12.3

23.0 5.4 10.1 12.9

24.2 5.0 10.8 13.4

25.5 5.7 11.6 14.0

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 -3.1

19.9 2.2

20.3 1.9

19.9 -2.1

19.7 -0.8

20.2 2.5

21.2 5.1

22.0 3.9

22.9 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35.8 35.9

36.8 36.6

38.4 37.2

38.0 36.2

38.0 35.7

39.1 36.1

40.4 37.3

41.6 38.0

43.2 38.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.2 2.3

47.1 1.8

47.5 1.0

47.5 0.0

48.0 1.0

47.8 -0.5

49.4 3.4

50.9 3.0

53.0 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.6 -5.2

193.9 -0.9

193.6 -0.1

193.6 0.0

193.0 -0.3

197.0 2.0

201.7 2.4

209.2 3.7

215.7 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 -8.1

20.5 -5.9

20.8 1.2

20.9 0.8

20.1 -3.8

20.1 -0.2

21.0 4.5

22.4 6.6

23.4 4.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173.8 -4.9

173.4 -0.3

172.9 -0.3

172.7 -0.1

172.9 0.1

176.9 2.3

180.8 2.2

186.9 3.4

192.3 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -23.9

8.7 -12.1

8.2 -5.8

8.4 3.1

9.1 8.8

9.9 8.3

11.1 12.5

12.4 11.7

13.4 7.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -6.8

33.0 -0.8

34.4 4.1

34.9 1.7

35.0 0.1

35.7 2.0

36.1 1.2

36.6 1.5

37.4 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 24.9 3.2

5.0 24.7 3.3

5.2 25.1 4.1

5.2 25.5 4.3

5.5 25.6 3.9

5.5 26.7 3.5

5.1 27.6 3.4

5.0 28.2 3.4

5.2 28.8 3.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 4.8

2.4 -7.4

2.3 -4.8

2.3 -2.5

2.1 -5.9

2.4 11.0

2.3 -3.7

2.2 -1.5

2.3 3.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.5

7.5 -1.4

7.6 1.4

7.5 -2.2

7.3 -2.5

7.2 -0.7

7.6 5.7

7.9 3.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.6 -6.6

31.6 0.2

30.6 -3.4

28.2 -7.6

27.4 -2.7

28.5 3.7

28.9 1.7

29.8 2.9

30.6 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.2 1.8

32.3 3.6

32.8 1.3

32.8 0.1

32.8 0.1

33.2 1.0

33.8 2.0

35.2 4.1

36.3 3.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -4.0

21.2 -0.4

21.6 1.7

22.7 5.4

23.0 1.1

24.0 4.4

25.5 6.4

26.5 4.1

27.5 3.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -6.2

7.1 2.7

7.3 2.7

7.4 1.0

7.5 1.6

8.0 6.3

7.9 0.0

8.5 7.4

8.8 2.8

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.4

6.4 -5.1

6.2 -2.1

6.2 -0.7

6.1 -1.3

6.2 1.3

6.3 1.4

6.3 0.5

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.8

22.0 -2.8

22.2 0.8

22.3 0.7

22.0 -1.2

21.7 -1.8

21.6 -0.2

21.9 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

542.5 0.1

543.9 0.3

545.0 0.2

548.2 0.6

552.2 0.7

558.9 1.2

569.4 1.9

580.5 2.0

590.8 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

265.4 -0.8

265.6 0.1

265.2 -0.2

262.7 -0.9

258.6 -1.6

258.1 -0.2

256.1 -0.7

262.0 2.3

271.4 3.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

106

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

10.4

11.2

10.9

9.4

8.3

7.0

5.9

5.2

4.3

975.9 869.6 106.3

1082.8 995.2 87.6

975.9 846.8 129.1

1120.1 1115.8 4.3

1351.4 1335.7 15.6

1268.0 1230.0 37.9

1893.4 1634.4 259.1

1958.4 1817.8 140.6

3547.3 2551.2 996.2


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

27.0 5.9 12.3 14.7

28.7 6.1 13.1 15.6

30.3 5.7 13.9 16.4

32.0 5.5 14.7 17.3

33.7 5.4 15.5 18.2

35.4 5.3 16.4 19.0

37.3 5.3 17.3 20.1

39.2 5.1 18.2 21.0

41.1 4.9 19.1 22.0

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 4.3

24.9 4.0

25.7 3.4

26.5 3.2

27.3 3.0

28.1 2.9

29.0 3.0

29.8 2.8

30.6 2.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.2 39.9

47.4 41.1

49.5 42.0

51.6 42.9

53.8 43.7

56.0 44.5

58.3 45.3

60.6 46.0

62.9 46.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

55.1 4.1

57.6 4.4

60.0 4.3

62.7 4.5

65.5 4.4

68.3 4.3

71.1 4.2

74.0 4.1

77.0 4.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

220.8 2.4

224.8 1.8

228.1 1.5

231.0 1.3

234.3 1.4

237.4 1.3

239.9 1.1

242.7 1.2

245.5 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 0.9

23.9 1.3

24.1 1.1

24.3 0.6

24.4 0.7

24.6 0.5

24.7 0.4

24.8 0.4

24.9 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

197.2 2.5

201.0 1.9

204.0 1.5

206.7 1.3

209.9 1.5

212.8 1.4

215.2 1.1

217.9 1.3

220.6 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 7.0

15.1 5.4

15.6 3.0

16.1 3.2

16.6 3.4

17.1 3.1

17.6 2.8

18.0 2.3

18.2 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.6 0.4

37.7 0.4

37.8 0.2

37.9 0.4

38.1 0.4

38.2 0.3

38.3 0.2

38.5 0.5

38.7 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 29.2 3.7

5.5 29.4 3.8

5.6 29.5 3.8

5.7 29.6 3.8

5.8 29.6 3.9

5.9 29.6 3.9

5.9 29.6 3.9

6.0 29.7 3.9

6.1 29.9 4.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 0.8

2.3 0.4

2.4 1.0

2.4 0.8

2.4 1.2

2.4 1.6

2.5 1.4

2.5 1.0

2.5 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 2.5

8.2 1.7

8.3 1.1

8.4 1.3

8.6 1.4

8.7 1.3

8.8 1.2

8.9 1.2

9.0 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.5 6.3

34.0 4.7

34.7 2.1

35.6 2.6

36.9 3.5

38.1 3.3

38.9 2.2

39.9 2.5

41.1 3.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.0 2.1

37.7 1.9

38.6 2.4

39.3 1.7

39.9 1.5

40.5 1.6

41.2 1.7

42.0 2.0

42.9 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 2.9

28.6 1.1

29.0 1.3

29.4 1.3

29.6 0.7

29.6 0.2

29.6 0.1

29.6 -0.1

29.6 -0.2

8.9 1.7

9.0 0.4

9.0 0.1

9.0 0.4

9.0 0.0

9.0 -0.2

9.0 -0.2

9.0 0.3

9.0 0.0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -4.0

5.9 -2.1

6.1 2.8

5.9 -3.8

5.8 -0.2

5.8 0.0

5.9 0.2

5.9 0.4

5.9 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 1.0

22.3 1.2

22.6 1.2

22.8 0.9

23.1 1.1

23.3 1.1

23.5 0.8

23.7 0.7

23.8 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

598.2 1.3

605.1 1.1

612.1 1.2

619.1 1.1

626.0 1.1

633.0 1.1

640.0 1.1

646.8 1.1

653.8 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

274.9 1.3

278.9 1.5

283.6 1.7

288.0 1.5

292.2 1.5

296.4 1.4

299.5 1.1

301.9 0.8

304.5 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.8

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4486.8 3337.3 1149.5

4765.3 3601.3 1164.1

4906.2 3654.6 1251.6

5140.5 3832.2 1308.3

5277.7 3938.8 1338.9

5386.8 4034.1 1352.7

5517.7 4160.5 1357.1

5349.9 3998.5 1351.4

5201.8 3836.4 1365.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

43.1 4.8 20.1 23.0

45.3 5.1 21.1 24.2

47.9 5.8 22.4 25.5

50.6 5.6 23.7 26.9

53.4 5.6 25.1 28.3

56.5 5.6 26.7 29.8

59.6 5.5 28.2 31.4

62.9 5.6 29.8 33.1

66.4 5.6 31.5 34.9

70.0 5.5 33.2 36.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.4 2.7

32.3 3.1

33.5 3.7

34.7 3.6

36.0 3.6

37.3 3.6

38.5 3.4

39.9 3.5

41.3 3.5

42.7 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

65.2 47.5

67.8 48.4

71.0 49.7

74.2 50.9

77.5 52.2

80.9 53.4

84.5 54.7

88.3 56.0

92.3 57.4

96.5 58.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

80.1 4.0

83.5 4.3

87.5 4.8

91.6 4.7

96.0 4.8

100.5 4.7

105.1 4.6

110.0 4.7

115.0 4.6

120.3 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

247.8 1.0

250.1 0.9

252.9 1.1

256.0 1.2

259.3 1.3

262.7 1.3

265.5 1.1

268.0 1.0

270.7 1.0

273.5 1.0

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

25.0 0.3

24.9 -0.3

24.8 -0.2

24.8 -0.2

24.7 -0.3

24.6 -0.5

24.5 -0.5

24.4 -0.3

24.4 -0.1

24.4 0.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

222.9 1.0

225.2 1.1

228.1 1.3

231.2 1.4

234.6 1.5

238.1 1.5

241.0 1.2

243.6 1.1

246.4 1.1

249.1 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 0.7

18.4 0.2

18.7 1.9

19.2 2.5

19.8 3.2

20.3 2.4

20.7 2.3

21.3 2.7

21.8 2.3

22.3 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 0.5

39.1 0.6

39.3 0.5

39.5 0.5

39.8 0.9

40.1 0.7

40.3 0.6

40.5 0.5

40.8 0.6

41.0 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.1 30.0 4.0

6.1 30.2 4.0

6.1 30.3 4.0

6.2 30.6 4.0

6.2 30.9 4.1

6.3 31.2 4.1

6.3 31.5 4.1

6.3 31.8 4.1

6.4 32.1 4.1

6.4 32.5 4.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 1.0

2.6 1.5

2.6 1.9

2.7 1.7

2.7 1.6

2.8 1.7

2.8 1.7

2.9 1.9

2.9 2.0

3.0 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 1.0

9.1 0.8

9.2 0.8

9.3 1.1

9.4 1.3

9.6 1.2

9.7 1.0

9.8 1.0

9.8 0.9

9.9 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

41.9 2.0

42.9 2.2

44.0 2.6

44.7 1.8

45.9 2.6

47.1 2.7

47.8 1.6

48.4 1.2

49.1 1.4

49.9 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 2.1

44.6 1.8

45.3 1.6

46.0 1.7

46.9 1.8

47.8 1.9

48.5 1.6

49.2 1.3

49.7 1.2

50.3 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 0.2

29.7 0.5

29.9 0.5

30.0 0.5

30.3 1.0

30.6 0.8

30.8 0.9

31.0 0.6

31.3 1.0

31.6 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.0 -0.3

8.9 -0.2

9.0 0.2

9.0 0.6

9.1 0.6

9.1 0.6

9.2 0.7

9.2 0.6

9.3 0.5

9.3 0.5

5.9 0.1

6.0 1.0

6.0 1.3

6.5 7.5

6.3 -3.2

6.3 1.3

6.4 1.2

6.5 1.2

6.6 1.3

6.7 1.2

23.9 0.5

24.0 0.3

24.1 0.6

24.3 0.7

24.4 0.6

24.6 0.6

24.7 0.5

24.8 0.7

25.0 0.6

25.2 0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

660.8 1.1

667.9 1.1

674.9 1.1

682.1 1.1

689.9 1.2

697.5 1.1

704.8 1.1

711.9 1.0

718.7 1.0

725.4 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

307.3 0.9

310.7 1.1

314.6 1.3

318.5 1.3

322.4 1.2

326.2 1.2

330.1 1.2

333.9 1.2

338.0 1.2

342.1 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108

4.8

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

5081.5 3718.2 1363.3

4985.8 3637.9 1347.9

5137.1 3776.4 1360.7

5185.1 3793.8 1391.3

5295.9 3887.5 1408.4

5060.9 3635.4 1425.5

5255.1 3809.1 1446.0

5482.6 4006.3 1476.4

5497.3 3994.8 1502.5

5550.1 4057.5 1492.6

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

73.8 5.4 35.1 38.7

77.8 5.5 37.0 40.8

82.2 5.7 39.1 43.1

86.8 5.6 41.4 45.5

91.5 5.4 43.7 47.9

96.4 5.4 46.1 50.4

101.7 5.4 48.7 53.0

107.3 5.6 51.5 55.8

113.4 5.6 54.6 58.8

119.6 5.5 59.7 3.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.1 3.3

45.6 3.4

47.2 3.6

48.9 3.5

50.5 3.3

52.2 3.3

53.9 3.3

55.8 3.5

57.7 3.5

59.7 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

100.8 60.2

105.4 61.7

110.4 63.4

115.6 65.1

120.9 66.7

126.4 68.4

132.3 70.1

138.7 72.0

145.5 74.1

152.6 76.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 4.6

131.7 4.7

137.9 4.7

144.1 4.6

150.5 4.4

157.1 4.4

164.1 4.4

171.4 4.5

179.2 4.6

187.4 4.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

276.0 0.9

278.5 0.9

281.3 1.0

284.4 1.1

287.5 1.1

290.6 1.1

294.2 1.2

298.0 1.3

302.0 1.3

305.7 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 -0.2

24.3 -0.1

24.3 -0.1

24.2 -0.2

24.2 -0.1

24.1 -0.3

24.1 -0.2

24.0 -0.3

23.9 -0.4

23.7 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

251.6 1.0

254.2 1.0

257.0 1.1

260.2 1.2

263.3 1.2

266.5 1.2

270.1 1.4

274.0 1.5

278.1 1.5

282.0 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 2.0

23.1 1.6

23.5 2.0

23.9 1.7

24.4 1.9

24.8 1.8

25.3 1.8

25.9 2.6

26.5 2.4

27.1 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 0.5

41.5 0.6

41.7 0.5

41.9 0.5

42.1 0.6

42.3 0.5

42.7 0.8

43.0 0.8

43.3 0.7

43.6 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.4 32.8 4.0

6.4 33.1 4.0

6.4 33.5 4.0

6.5 33.8 3.9

6.6 34.2 3.9

6.6 34.4 3.9

6.8 34.8 3.9

6.9 35.1 3.9

7.0 35.5 3.8

7.2 35.7 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.0 1.6

3.1 1.4

3.1 1.2

3.1 1.1

3.2 1.6

3.3 2.0

3.3 1.8

3.4 1.6

3.4 1.4

3.5 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.0 0.8

10.1 0.9

10.2 0.8

10.3 0.9

10.4 1.0

10.5 1.0

10.6 1.0

10.7 1.0

10.8 1.0

10.9 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

50.6 1.4

51.3 1.3

52.1 1.5

53.0 1.8

54.1 2.1

55.2 2.1

56.5 2.4

58.1 2.7

59.7 2.8

61.2 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 1.0

51.5 1.3

52.1 1.3

52.9 1.5

53.7 1.6

54.6 1.6

55.4 1.5

56.2 1.5

57.1 1.6

58.1 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

31.9 0.9

32.1 0.8

32.4 1.0

32.7 0.8

33.0 0.9

33.2 0.6

33.4 0.9

33.6 0.5

33.8 0.6

33.9 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 0.2

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.4

9.5 0.3

9.5 0.4

9.5 0.3

9.5 0.2

9.6 0.2

9.6 0.2

9.6 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 1.2

6.8 1.1

6.9 1.0

7.2 4.8

7.0 -2.6

7.1 1.2

7.2 0.7

7.2 1.2

7.3 1.1

7.4 1.0

25.3 0.6

25.5 0.6

25.6 0.6

25.8 0.6

26.0 0.7

26.1 0.6

26.3 0.6

26.4 0.7

26.6 0.6

26.7 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

732.0 0.9

738.4 0.9

744.6 0.9

750.8 0.8

756.8 0.8

763.0 0.8

768.6 0.7

774.1 0.7

779.3 0.7

783.9 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

346.0 1.2

349.9 1.1

353.8 1.1

358.0 1.2

362.1 1.2

366.1 1.1

370.0 1.1

373.7 1.0

377.6 1.1

381.8 1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.9

5486.4 4015.4 1471.0

5427.4 3963.4 1463.9

5499.4 4028.8 1470.6

5458.9 3979.2 1479.7

5451.5 3994.2 1457.4

5456.2 4012.7 1443.5

5565.4 4127.4 1438.0

5726.7 4285.4 1441.3

5758.2 4305.7 1452.5

5783.0 4321.8 1461.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109


P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.4 5.8 11.5 13.9

25.7 5.2 11.7 14

26.1 5.6 11.8 14.2

26.5 5.9 12 14.4

26.8 5.8 12.2 14.6

27.2 5.8 12.4 14.8

27.6 6 12.6 15

28.1 6.1 12.8 15.2

28.5 6.1 13 15.5

28.9 6.2 13.2 15.7

29.3 5.9 13.4 15.9

29.7 5.7 13.6 16.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 4.1

23 3.5

23.3 4.1

23.6 4.5

23.8 4.2

24 4.2

24.3 4.2

24.5 4.1

24.8 4.2

25 4.1

25.2 3.7

25.4 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43 38.7

43.4 38.9

43.9 39.2

44.4 39.5

44.9 39.8

45.4 40.1

46 40.4

46.6 40.7

47.1 41

47.7 41.2

48.1 41.4

48.7 41.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.8 4.5

53.2 3.5

53.6 3.6

54.2 3.8

54.8 3.7

55.4 4.2

56.1 4.6

56.7 4.5

57.3 4.5

57.9 4.4

58.5 4.3

59.1 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

214.9 3.4

216.5 2.3

217.9 2.4

219.2 2.7

220.4 2.5

221.4 2.3

222.2 2

223.5 2

224.4 1.8

225.3 1.8

226.1 1.7

226.6 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 5.6

23.4 3.3

23.4 1.8

23.5 0.6

23.6 0.9

23.6 0.9

23.6 1.1

23.7 1.1

23.8 1.1

23.9 1.3

24 1.5

24 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

191.6 3.2

193.1 2.2

194.5 2.5

195.7 2.9

196.8 2.7

197.8 2.4

198.6 2.1

199.8 2.1

200.6 1.9

201.4 1.8

202.1 1.7

202.6 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 8.5

13.5 5.7

13.7 6.1

14 6.2

14.2 7

14.5 7.7

14.7 6.9

14.9 6.8

15 5.8

15.2 4.8

15.3 4.1

15.4 3.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 2

37.5 1.5

37.5 2.4

37.5 0.6

37.5 0.5

37.6 0.4

37.6 0.3

37.7 0.4

37.7 0.4

37.7 0.3

37.7 0.2

37.8 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 28.8 3.6

5.2 28.9 3.7

5.3 29 3.7

5.3 29.2 3.7

5.4 29.2 3.7

5.4 29.2 3.7

5.4 29.3 3.7

5.4 29.4 3.8

5.5 29.4 3.8

5.5 29.5 3.8

5.5 29.4 3.8

5.6 29.5 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 3.5

2.3 -0.3

2.3 0

2.3 0.4

2.3 1.5

2.3 0.9

2.3 0.5

2.3 -0.6

2.3 -0.4

2.3 0.8

2.3 1.9

2.4 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 3.9

7.9 3.4

8 2.7

8 3

8.1 2.7

8.1 2.4

8.2 2

8.2 2

8.2 1.7

8.2 1.5

8.3 1.4

8.3 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 2.9

30.9 1.8

31.3 3.3

31.8 6.4

32.4 6.7

32.8 6.2

33.1 5.7

33.6 5.4

33.9 4.8

34.2 4.4

34.4 4

34.4 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 3.5

36.4 2

36.6 2

36.8 2.6

37 2.2

37.1 1.9

37.3 1.8

37.5 1.8

37.6 1.8

37.8 1.9

38 2

38.3 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 4

27.7 3.9

28 3.1

28.2 4.3

28.2 3.2

28.4 2.4

28.4 1.7

28.5 1.2

28.6 1.1

28.7 1

28.7 1

28.8 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 2.8

8.8 2.8

8.8 2

8.9 2.2

8.9 1.9

8.9 1.5

8.9 1

9 0.8

9 0.6

9 0.3

8.9 0

9 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 1.3

6.3 0

6.3 -1.5

6.2 -3

6.1 -3.9

6 -4.8

6 -4.4

6 -3.1

5.9 -2.2

5.9 -1.6

5.9 -1.3

5.7 -3.8

21.8 1.2

21.9 0.7

21.9 1.2

22 1.1

22 1

22.1 0.9

22.1 0.8

22.2 0.9

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.4

22.5 1.5

22.5 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

589.8 1.8

592 1.7

594.1 1.6

595.7 1.5

597.4 1.3

599.1 1.2

600.8 1.1

602.5 1.1

604.2 1.1

605.9 1.2

607.7 1.2

609.5 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

271.5 4.4

272.2 3.5

272.8 2.7

273.6 1.6

274.4 1.1

275.4 1.2

276.3 1.3

277.3 1.4

278.3 1.4

279.4 1.5

280.6 1.6

281.8 1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

110

4.2

4.1

4

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3391 2430 961

3760 2685 1076

4026 2888 1138

4280 3103 1177

4488 3281 1207

4544 3440 1104

4635 3525 1111

4702 3595 1107

4784 3600 1185

4780 3611 1169

4795 3600 1195

4825 3609 1215

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,500. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.9 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $50,300. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,336.83 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 3.6 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.9 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -1.6 and -1.8 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 221,477 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.9% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,533 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200

Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Economist: High-skilled labor needed for port

• Rick Harper, a local economist, stated that Port of Pensacola Warehouse 4 would see high returns on investment if the newly purposed area could be filled with high paying jobs requiring greater skills. • The mayor of Pensacola, Ashton Hayward, is looking to turn the currently city-owned, general storage warehouse into a marine research center for the Institute for Human & Machine Cognition and maybe University of West Florida. • Rick Harper has suggested various way for the nonprofit facility to garner greater economic activity, including possibly working with the military and bringing in private firms on site as well.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 26, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Passengers on the rise at Pensacola International Airport

• Overall, Pensacola International Airport saw a total of 805,045 departing passengers in 2016, which is about 6% higher than the number of departures in 2012. Though, current airport traffic still falls flat compared to the months before the Great Recession.

• In the first quarter of 2017, departures were 4.7% greater than the first quarter of 2013. • New direct flights will be available throughout the season of summer, such as Kansas City to Pensacola, through Southwest Airlines.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 9, 2017

Pensacola tech training startup Invictus to launch in September

• What once started as a plan to train her family in technology, Vickie Patterson now plans to open a tech training startup in the Pensacola area in late September of this year. • While Patterson is still in the process of researching the market, she plans to offer courses for those from all levels of technological skills. The business is set to open in the soon-to-berelocated Cowork Annex in downtown. • Vickie Patterson has substantial experience in the technology industry, having worked for IBM since 2001.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 15, 2017

Regulators approve Gulf Power rate settlement

• Gulf Power in Northwest Florida proposed a base-rate increase of $62 million through 2019 with a target return on equity of 10.25%. This settlement was approved by state utility regulators and will be in effect starting July.

• This was deemed a reasonable settlement by a variety of parties apart of the decision. Gulf Power originally planned to have a base-rate increase of $106.8 million with an 11% return on equity.

112

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• Gulf Power plans to use the increased funds on improving infrastructure in order to better serve its customers.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 4, 2017

Santa Rosa needs 1,500 new homes a year to keep up with demand • The Home Builders Association of West Florida completed a housing study led by local economist Rick Harper indicating that in order to match population growth in Santa Rosa County, 1,500 homes will need to be built every year for the next eight years. • From this needed construction, the study estimates that 5,327 jobs will be created with a total of $288 million in income.

• When presenting the study’s finding, Harper stated, “Really, the housing market in Santa Rosa is very healthy at this point in time. There’s a rising number of transactions in the new home market and existing home market.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 24, 2017


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

0.6

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Pensacola Payroll Employment

1

1.2

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.2 -1.6 6.8 8.4

15.8 3.9 6.9 8.9

16.6 5.1 7.1 9.5

17 2.6 7.3 9.8

17.1 0.1 7.4 9.7

17.8 4.3 7.6 10.2

18.7 4.9 8 10.6

19.5 4.2 8.5 11

20.4 4.7 9 11.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 -0.7

15.7 3

16.1 2.3

16.2 0.9

16 -1.2

16.5 2.7

17.2 4.6

17.7 3.1

18.3 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

34 34.1

35 34.8

36.4 35.2

36.8 35

36.4 34.2

37.6 34.8

39 35.9

40 36.5

41.3 37.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.3 2.8

40.3 0

41.3 2.5

42.1 1.8

42.1 0

43.3 2.7

44.6 3.1

45.8 2.6

47.4 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

154.7 -5.1

156.6 1.2

158.2 1

158.2 0

159.9 1.1

162.9 1.8

167.1 2.6

172.5 3.2

176.6 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.5 2.6

5.6 1.2

5.9 5.6

6 2.2

6.1 1.1

6.3 3.6

6.2 -1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

149.3 -4.6

151.2 1.3

152.6 1

152.6 0

154 0.9

156.9 1.8

161 2.6

166.2 3.2

170.4 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.8 -6.7

9.4 -4

9.2 -2.5

9.5 3.6

10 4.5

10.7 7.8

11.4 6.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.8 1.3

30 0.9

30.4 1.2

31.1 2.2

31.7 2

32.5 2.5

33.4 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

4.9 20.8 4.1

4.9 21.1 4

4.9 21.5 4.1

5 22 4.1

5.1 22.5 4

5.5 23 4.1

5.6 23.7 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3 -7.2

3.1 1.7

2.7 -12.5

2.4 -12.3

2.3 -1

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.3

2 -7.2

1.9 -6.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 -2.8

8.7 -1.2

8.7 0

9 3.4

9.9 10

10.7 8.6

11.7 8.7

12.4 6

12.9 4.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

21.1 7.1

21.3 1.3

21.5 1

21.7 0.6

22.4 3.4

22.4 -0.2

22.9 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 -1.1

26.7 3.8

27.4 2.4

27 -1.4

26.6 -1.3

26.8 0.6

27.7 3.3

29 4.9

28.8 -0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 -2

17.9 2.3

18.9 5.6

19.3 2.1

20.3 5

20.9 3.2

21.6 2.9

22.9 6.2

24.5 7

6.6 -10.1

6.1 -6.8

5.8 -5.4

5.7 -1.6

5.7 -0.5

6 5.2

5.8 -3.5

5.9 2.8

6 0.5

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.2

6.9 -4.7

6.8 -0.8

6.6 -2.4

6.5 -2.2

6.5 0.5

6.6 1.5

6.6 -0.6

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -0.8

21.6 -0.2

21.4 -0.8

21.4 0

21.5 0.8

21.7 0.7

22 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

447.1 0.4

451.4 1

456.5 1.1

463.2 1.5

468.8 1.2

473.4 1

479.2 1.2

486.6 1.5

493.3 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

207.1 -0.5

211 1.9

213.4 1.1

212.5 -0.4

212 -0.2

212.6 0.3

211.8 -0.3

216.5 2.2

222.4 2.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

9.6

9.8

9.3

8.1

7

6.1

5.3

4.8

4.1

1036 955 81

1820 1373 447

1201 1200 1

1479 1463 16

1981 1865 116

1828 1663 165

2783 2030 753

3054 2557 498

2733 2467 266


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.4 5 9.5 11.9

22.5 5.2 10 12.5

23.6 4.9 10.4 13.2

24.7 4.8 10.9 13.8

25.9 4.6 11.5 14.4

27 4.5 12.1 15

28.2 4.5 12.6 15.7

29.4 4.2 13.1 16.3

30.6 3.9 13.6 17

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 3.4

19.5 3.2

20 2.7

20.5 2.5

21 2.3

21.5 2.2

21.9 2.2

22.3 1.9

22.7 1.7

43 38

45 39

47 39.9

49 40.7

51 41.4

53.1 42.2

55.3 42.9

57.5 43.6

59.6 44.3

49.2 3.9

51.2 4.1

53.3 4

55.5 4.3

57.9 4.3

60.4 4.2

62.8 4.1

65.3 3.9

67.7 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

179.3 1.5

181.1 1

182.5 0.8

183.6 0.6

184.9 0.7

186 0.6

186.5 0.3

187.1 0.3

187.6 0.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 0.3

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.1

6.3 -0.1

6.3 -0.2

6.3 -0.3

6.3 -0.4

6.3 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173 1.5

174.8 1.1

176.2 0.8

177.2 0.6

178.6 0.8

179.6 0.6

180.2 0.3

180.8 0.3

181.3 0.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.2 6.2

12.7 4.6

13 2.3

13.3 2.5

13.7 2.7

14 2.1

14.2 1.5

14.3 1

14.4 0.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -0.3

33.1 -0.4

33 -0.5

32.8 -0.4

32.7 -0.5

32.5 -0.6

32.2 -0.8

32.1 -0.5

31.9 -0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.9 23.6 4.2

5.9 23.5 4.2

5.9 23.3 4.2

6 23.1 4.1

5.9 22.9 4.1

5.9 22.8 4.1

5.9 22.7 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 0.4

1.9 -0.2

1.9 0.4

1.9 0.1

1.9 0.4

1.9 0.7

2 0.5

2 0.1

2 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 1.9

13.3 0.9

13.3 0.3

13.4 0.5

13.5 0.7

13.6 0.5

13.6 0.5

13.7 0.4

13.7 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24 4.6

24.9 3.7

25.2 1.4

25.8 2.1

26.5 3

27.3 2.8

27.7 1.7

28.3 1.9

28.9 2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29 0.9

29.2 0.7

29.6 1.2

29.8 0.7

29.9 0.4

30.1 0.6

30.3 0.7

30.5 0.9

30.8 0.9

25.2 2.7

25.4 1

25.7 1.2

26 1.2

26.2 0.6

26.2 0

26.1 -0.3

26 -0.5

25.8 -0.6

6 1.1

6 -0.1

6 -0.3

6 0

6 -0.3

6 -0.6

5.9 -0.6

5.9 -0.1

5.9 -0.5

6.3 -4.8

6.1 -2.8

6.2 1.2

5.9 -4

5.9 -0.9

5.8 -0.8

5.8 -0.7

5.8 -0.6

5.7 -0.7

22 0.1

22.1 0.4

22.2 0.4

22.2 0.1

22.3 0.3

22.3 0.3

22.3 0

22.3 -0.2

22.2 -0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

497.3 0.8

500.2 0.6

502.7 0.5

505 0.4

507.1 0.4

509 0.4

510.8 0.3

512.2 0.3

513.5 0.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

223.5 0.5

225 0.7

227 0.9

228.8 0.8

230.4 0.7

231.8 0.6

232.2 0.2

231.8 -0.1

231.6 -0.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.8

4

4.1

4.2

2501 2104 397

2261 1832 430

2313 1856 456

2378 1920 458

2419 1960 459

2443 1987 456

2493 2035 457

2421 1968 453

2357 1901 456

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

31.8 3.9 14.1 17.7

33.1 4.1 14.7 18.4

34.7 4.8 15.4 19.2

36.3 4.7 16.2 20.1

38 4.6 17 21

39.8 4.7 17.9 21.9

41.6 4.5 18.7 22.9

43.5 4.6 19.6 23.9

45.5 4.6 20.4 25

47.5 4.5 21.4 26.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 1.8

23.6 2.1

24.3 2.8

24.9 2.7

25.6 2.6

26.3 2.6

26.9 2.5

27.6 2.6

28.3 2.5

29 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

61.8 45

64.2 45.9

67.2 47.1

70.2 48.2

73.4 49.4

76.7 50.6

80 51.8

83.6 53

87.3 54.3

91.1 55.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.2 3.8

73.1 4.1

76.4 4.6

79.9 4.5

83.5 4.5

87.2 4.5

91 4.4

95 4.4

99.1 4.3

103.4 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

187.8 0.1

188.1 0.1

188.7 0.3

189.6 0.5

190.5 0.5

191.6 0.6

192.2 0.3

192.5 0.2

193 0.2

193.5 0.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -0.4

6.2 -1.2

6.1 -1.1

6 -1.1

6 -1.2

5.9 -1.4

5.8 -1.4

5.7 -1.2

5.7 -0.9

5.6 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.6 0.2

181.9 0.2

182.6 0.4

183.6 0.5

184.6 0.5

185.7 0.6

186.4 0.3

186.8 0.2

187.3 0.3

187.8 0.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 -0.4

14.2 -0.9

14.3 0.6

14.5 1.4

14.8 2.2

15 1.4

15.2 1.2

15.4 1.6

15.6 1.3

15.8 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.7 -0.5

31.5 -0.5

31.3 -0.6

31.2 -0.6

31.1 -0.2

31 -0.4

30.8 -0.5

30.6 -0.6

30.4 -0.5

30.3 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.9 22.5 4.1

5.8 22.5 4.1

5.8 22.3 4

5.7 22.3 4

5.7 22.3 4

5.7 22.3 4

5.6 22.3 3.9

5.6 22.2 3.9

5.6 22.2 3.8

5.5 22.2 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 0.1

2 0.6

2 0.9

2 0.8

2 0.6

2 0.7

2 0.8

2.1 1

2.1 1.1

2.1 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 0.2

13.7 0

13.8 0

13.8 0.3

13.9 0.5

13.9 0.4

13.9 0.2

14 0.1

14 0.1

14 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 1.4

29.8 1.7

30.4 2

30.8 1.2

31.4 2

32.1 2.1

32.4 1

32.6 0.7

32.9 0.8

33.2 1.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 1

31.4 0.7

31.5 0.6

31.7 0.6

31.9 0.7

32.2 0.8

32.4 0.5

32.4 0.2

32.5 0.1

32.5 0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.8 -0.2

25.8 0.1

25.9 0.1

25.9 0.1

26 0.6

26.2 0.4

26.3 0.5

26.3 0.2

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.7

5.8 -0.5

5.8 -0.2

5.8 0.2

5.8 0.1

5.8 0.2

5.8 0.2

5.9 0.2

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -0.8

5.7 0.1

5.7 0.4

6.1 6.6

5.8 -4.3

5.8 0.4

5.8 0.3

5.9 0.4

5.9 0.4

5.9 0.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 -0.4

22 -0.5

21.9 -0.3

21.9 -0.2

21.9 -0.2

21.8 -0.3

21.7 -0.3

21.7 -0.2

21.6 -0.2

21.6 -0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

514.5 0.2

515.3 0.2

516.1 0.2

517 0.2

517.8 0.1

518.6 0.2

519.4 0.1

520.3 0.2

521.1 0.2

522.1 0.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

231.5 -0.1

231.8 0.1

232.6 0.3

233.5 0.4

234.2 0.3

234.9 0.3

235.6 0.3

236.1 0.2

236.8 0.3

237.4 0.3

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

116

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

2292 1842 450

2231 1794 437

2290 1849 441

2316 1866 450

2357 1905 453

2238 1784 454

2313 1855 458

2415 1947 468

2429 1954 475

2453 1984 470


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

49.6 4.4 22.3 27.3

51.9 4.5 23.3 28.5

54.3 4.7 24.4 29.9

56.8 4.6 25.5 31.3

59.3 4.5 26.7 32.6

62 4.5 27.9 34.1

64.8 4.6 29.2 35.6

67.9 4.8 30.7 37.2

71.2 4.9 32.3 38.9

74.6 4.8 34 40.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.7 2.3

30.4 2.5

31.2 2.6

32 2.6

32.7 2.4

33.5 2.4

34.4 2.6

35.3 2.7

36.3 2.8

37.3 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

94.9 56.7

99 58

103.4 59.3

107.9 60.7

112.5 62.1

117.3 63.5

122.8 65.1

128.8 66.9

135.3 68.9

142.2 71

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

107.9 4.3

112.5 4.3

117.5 4.4

122.5 4.3

127.6 4.2

132.9 4.1

138.4 4.2

144.3 4.3

150.7 4.4

157.4 4.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.7 0.1

194 0.1

194.4 0.2

195.1 0.4

195.7 0.3

196.5 0.4

197.8 0.7

199.3 0.7

201 0.8

202.5 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 -1

5.5 -1

5.5 -1

5.4 -1

5.4 -0.9

5.3 -1.1

5.2 -1.1

5.2 -1.1

5.1 -1.4

5 -1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

188.2 0.2

188.5 0.2

189 0.3

189.7 0.4

190.3 0.3

191.2 0.5

192.6 0.7

194.1 0.8

195.9 0.9

197.4 0.8

16 1

16.1 0.7

16.2 1

16.4 0.8

16.6 1.2

16.7 1.1

16.9 1

17.2 1.8

17.5 1.6

17.7 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 -0.6

29.9 -0.6

29.7 -0.6

29.5 -0.6

29.4 -0.5

29.3 -0.5

29.2 -0.1

29.2 -0.1

29.2 -0.2

29.1 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 22.2 3.7

5.4 22.2 3.6

5.4 22.2 3.6

5.3 22.2 3.5

5.3 22.2 3.4

5.4 22.1 3.4

5.4 22.2 3.3

5.5 22.2 3.3

5.5 22.2 3.2

5.6 22.2 3.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 0.7

2.1 0.5

2.1 0.4

2.2 0.3

2.2 0.8

2.2 1.2

2.2 1.2

2.2 1

2.3 0.6

2.3 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14 0

14 0.1

14 0

14 0.1

14 0.2

14.1 0.3

14.1 0.4

14.2 0.4

14.3 0.5

14.3 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.5 0.8

33.7 0.7

34.1 0.9

34.5 1.2

35 1.5

35.5 1.6

36.2 2.1

37.1 2.3

38 2.4

38.8 2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.4 -0.1

32.5 0.2

32.6 0.2

32.7 0.4

32.9 0.5

33 0.6

33.3 0.6

33.5 0.6

33.7 0.7

34 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 0.5

26.9 0.4

27 0.6

27.1 0.5

27.3 0.6

27.4 0.4

27.6 0.8

27.7 0.5

28 0.8

28.2 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -0.2

5.8 -0.1

5.8 0

5.8 -0.1

5.8 -0.1

5.8 0

5.8 0

5.8 0

5.8 0

5.8 -0.1

5.9 0.3

6 0.3

6 0.1

6.2 3.9

6 -3.4

6 0.5

6 0.1

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.5

6.1 0.4

21.5 -0.2

21.5 -0.2

21.4 -0.4

21.3 -0.4

21.2 -0.4

21.1 -0.4

21.1 -0.2

21.1 -0.1

21.1 0.2

21.2 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

523.1 0.2

524.2 0.2

525.2 0.2

526.3 0.2

527.3 0.2

528.2 0.2

528.1 0

527.7 -0.1

526.5 -0.2

525 -0.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

237.9 0.2

238.4 0.2

238.9 0.2

239.6 0.3

240.2 0.2

240.6 0.2

241 0.2

241.3 0.1

241.6 0.1

242.1 0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

2428 1967 461

2402 1945 458

2429 1969 460

2411 1950 462

2410 1958 452

2407 1964 443

2453 2016 438

2527 2089 439

2548 2106 442

2563 2119 444

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117


P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.2 4.6 8.9 11.3

20.5 4.4 9 11.4

20.7 5 9.2 11.6

21 5 9.3 11.7

21.2 4.9 9.4 11.8

21.5 5 9.5 12

21.8 5.2 9.7 12.1

22.1 5.3 9.8 12.3

22.4 5.3 9.9 12.5

22.6 5.3 10 12.6

22.9 5 10.1 12.8

23.2 4.9 10.2 12.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 2.9

18.4 2.7

18.5 3.5

18.7 3.6

18.8 3.4

19 3.3

19.1 3.4

19.3 3.3

19.5 3.3

19.6 3.3

19.7 2.9

19.8 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

41.1 36.9

41.5 37.1

41.9 37.4

42.3 37.7

42.8 37.9

43.2 38.1

43.7 38.4

44.3 38.7

44.8 38.9

45.2 39.1

45.7 39.3

46.2 39.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.2 3.6

47.6 3.1

47.9 3.5

48.5 3.6

48.9 3.6

49.5 4

50 4.3

50.5 4.2

51 4.2

51.5 4.1

52 3.9

52.5 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

176.2 2.7

177.1 1.9

177.9 2.3

178.5 1.8

179.1 1.7

179.6 1.4

179.9 1.2

180.6 1.2

181 1.1

181.3 1

181.6 0.9

181.7 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -1.5

6.2 -1.2

6.2 0

6.2 0.1

6.3 0.4

6.3 0.3

6.3 0.5

6.3 0.5

6.3 0.5

6.3 0.8

6.3 1

6.3 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

169.9 2.8

170.9 2.1

171.6 2.4

172.3 1.8

172.8 1.7

173.3 1.4

173.7 1.2

174.3 1.2

174.7 1.1

175 1

175.3 0.9

175.4 0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 6.3

11.5 6

11.7 6.6

11.9 5.7

12.1 6.3

12.3 6.7

12.4 5.9

12.6 5.9

12.7 5

12.8 4.1

12.8 3.4

12.9 2.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 3.4

33.4 2.3

33.4 1.2

33.3 -0.1

33.3 -0.2

33.2 -0.4

33.2 -0.5

33.2 -0.3

33.2 -0.3

33.1 -0.4

33.1 -0.5

33.1 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.6 23.7 4.1

5.7 23.8 4.2

5.7 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.8 4.2

5.8 23.7 4.2

5.9 23.7 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -7.2

1.9 -4.9

1.9 -3.8

1.9 0.1

1.9 1.1

1.9 0.4

1.9 -0.1

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1

1.9 0.2

1.9 1.3

1.9 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 4.8

13 4.1

13.1 3.1

13.1 2.6

13.2 2.1

13.2 1.7

13.2 1.3

13.3 1.2

13.3 0.9

13.3 0.7

13.3 0.6

13.3 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 1.7

23.1 3.1

23.3 5.1

23.6 4.4

23.9 4.9

24.1 4.7

24.3 4.4

24.6 4.3

24.8 3.9

25 3.5

25.1 3.3

25.1 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.7 -1.1

28.9 -2.1

28.9 0.7

29 1.3

29 1

29.1 0.7

29.1 0.6

29.2 0.6

29.2 0.6

29.3 0.7

29.3 0.8

29.4 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 8.3

24.6 6.6

24.9 4.9

25 3.7

25.1 3

25.2 2.4

25.3 1.8

25.3 1.3

25.4 1.1

25.5 0.9

25.5 0.9

25.6 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -0.3

6 1.1

6 1.9

6 1.6

6 1.4

6 1

6 0.5

6 0.3

6 0.1

6 -0.2

6 -0.5

6 -0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -0.1

6.6 -1.5

6.5 -2.1

6.4 -3.7

6.3 -4.7

6.2 -5.5

6.2 -5.2

6.2 -3.5

6.1 -2.8

6.1 -2.4

6 -2.3

5.8 -5.8

22 2.6

22 0.2

22 0.3

22 0.3

22 0.2

22 0

22 0

22 0.1

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.6

22.2 0.7

22.2 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

492.7 1.5

494.2 1.4

495.1 1.2

496.1 1

496.9 0.8

497.7 0.7

498.5 0.7

499.3 0.7

499.9 0.6

500.5 0.6

501.2 0.5

501.9 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

222.6 3.3

222.8 2.8

222.8 1.9

223 0.8

223.3 0.3

223.6 0.4

224 0.5

224.3 0.6

224.7 0.6

225.2 0.7

225.7 0.8

226.2 0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

118

4

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

2766 2508 257

2708 2384 324

2666 2296 370

2632 2236 395

2577 2157 420

2452 2073 379

2344 1952 393

2237 1828 409

2271 1830 441

2264 1836 428

2272 1832 440

2287 1840 447

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


T allahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in most of the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 6.5 percent each year, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income levels should average $38,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $49,700. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,614.19 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.8 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.6 percent annually. The Construction and Mining follows with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Financial sector follows with an average growth rate of 1.9 percent. No sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 191,980 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,180 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES City to offer solar subscriptions to utility customers • Construction on the $33.2 millon 20-megawatt solar farm south of Tallahassee International Airport is slated to be completed four months after its start date in early May. • The city has created a participation plan that would allow their customers to “subscribe for solar power without having to spend thousands of dollars installing panels on their roof.”

• Whether they rent or own their homes, customers can sign up for 25, 50, or 100 percent of their power to come from the solar farm. Open enrollment for this program will run from June 1 to December 31.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 7, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119


T allahassee

City approves Frenchtown land sale to housing developer

• Despite many Frenchtown residents’ objections, Tallahassee commissioners unanimously approved the sale of a .87-acre lot on Macomb Street to Landmark Properties for $485,000. This is the final piece of land needed to build a fivestory $50-$70 million student housing complex on a 5-acre lot across from the Renaissance Center. • According to an FSU economic impact statement, this project will create over 800 job opportunities and a $106 million impact on goods and services.

• Ben Pingree, director of the Department of Planning, Land, Management and Community Enhancement, said that the project “will also create at least $1 million in property tax revenue, half of which will go back into future projects for the Greater Frenchtown/Southside Community Redevelopment Agency.”

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 26, 2017

Westminster breaks ground on apartment homes

• Westminster Oaks has begun construction on “the largest single project in [its] 35-year history.” This project includes a $14 million expansion that will add 40 apartments and a $9 million fourstory, 375-space parking garage to Canopy Oaks. • This expansion comes after Canopy Oaks apartments sold out within six weeks. With its offerings of spacious one- to three-bedroom units and a swimming pool, tennis court, and fitness center, there are over 500 people on the waitlist for this complex. • Canopy Oaks is set to be completed by fall 2018.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 2, 2017

120

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

Bethel, partners granted time on Frenchtown development proposal

• The Frenchtown Redevelopment Partners has been given six months to develop a mixed-use development along a high-profile location: the 400 block of West Tennessee Street.

• The project totals 310,000 square feet and is proposed to include four stories of office space, a grocery store, 20 units of townhouses, and four stories of apartments/condos. • This proposal is not complete until the Community Redevelopment Agency approves the overall concept and either sells or donates its CRA-owned property for the project.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 25, 2017

FSU researchers receive $2.8M for origin of personality traits impacting longevity study

• Assistant Professor Angelina Sutin from Florida State University’s College of Medicine was granted $2.8 million from the National Institutes of Health to research “how our personality forms relative to what we know about its consequences on health across the lifespan.” • Sutin and her team will be conducting a fiveyear study to identify prenatal and childhood neighborhood risk factors that contribute to the development of personality traits that affect healthy aging.

• She hopes to achieve a better understanding of how conscientiousness and neuroticism emerge in humans, which could help lead to the discovery of new methods of “mitigating unwanted behaviors linked to personality.”

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 2, 2017


T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

2.5

3

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 26000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

24000.0

10.0%

22000.0

8.0%

20000.0

6.0%

18000.0 16000.0

4.0% 2.0%

2

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

14000.0 12000.0

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-6.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.1 -1.5 6.8 5.3

12.7 5 6.8 5.9

13.5 6 6.8 6.7

13.3 -1.5 6.8 6.4

13 -1.7 6.9 6.1

13.7 5.3 7.2 6.5

14.3 3.9 7.5 6.8

14.9 4.7 7.9 7

15.9 6.8 8.6 7.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 -0.6

12.6 4.2

13 3.2

12.6 -3.2

12.2 -3

12.7 3.7

13.1 3.6

13.6 3.5

14.3 5.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

33.1 33.2

34.4 34.2

36.2 35.1

35.4 33.7

34.9 32.8

36.5 33.8

37.7 34.8

39.3 35.8

41.8 37.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.3 0.2

39.8 1.3

40.1 0.9

40.9 1.8

41.1 0.5

41.9 1.9

43.1 3

44.5 3.2

47.5 6.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

171.1 -2.8

169.2 -1.1

168 -0.7

166.2 -1

167.3 0.7

171.5 2.5

172.7 0.7

177.5 2.8

181.1 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -11.2

3.1 -3.9

3.1 -2.3

2.9 -4.4

3.1 4.2

3.1 2.6

3.1 -2.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

167.2 -2.6

165.5 -1.1

164.7 -0.5

163.1 -1

164.3 0.7

168.5 2.6

169.6 0.6

174.4 2.8

178.1 2.1

7 -18

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.5

5.9 -4

6.2 5.4

6.3 1.7

6.7 7

7.5 10.6

7.6 1.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.3 0.7

22.2 -0.6

22.7 2.5

23.7 4

24.2 2.2

24.5 1.1

25.1 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.5 1.6

3.2 17.4 1.6

3.2 17.8 1.7

3.4 18.5 1.8

3.6 18.7 1.9

3.7 18.7 2.1

3.8 19.4 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 -6

3.1 -9.1

3.2 3.6

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.9 12.8

3.5 -10.2

3.2 -8.3

2.9 -9.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 0.9

7.2 -4

7.3 1.5

7.1 -2.7

7 -1

7.5 6.6

7.6 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.4 1.4

18.2 -1.1

18.5 1.6

19 2.7

19 -0.2

20.3 7.3

21.1 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 1.4

19.6 0.4

19.9 1.4

19.7 -0.6

19.7 -0.3

20.6 4.8

21.1 2.1

21.9 3.8

22.3 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16.2 0

16.8 3.5

17.2 2.7

17.9 3.8

18.7 4.6

19.6 4.9

20.5 4.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 3.3

9.5 -2.2

8.9 -5.7

9.2 3.1

8.8 -3.9

9 2.2

8.8 -2.2

9.4 6.8

10.2 8.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.2

2.1 5

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -0.5

2 3.5

1.9 -2.5

1.9 0.8

2 4.1

2.1 2.9

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0

60.3 -1.1

58.7 -2.5

58.4 -0.6

59.2 1.3

58.7 -0.9

58.5 -0.3

58.8 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

365.2 1

369.2 1.1

371.8 0.7

374.7 0.8

373.8 -0.2

375.9 0.5

378 0.6

379.8 0.5

381.3 0.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

191.2 0.4

190.8 -0.2

190 -0.4

187.9 -1.1

186.7 -0.6

188.5 1

185 -1.9

187.8 1.5

193.5 3.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

122

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.4

8.4

8.3

7.4

6.4

5.8

5.2

4.7

4.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

828 613 215

663 606 57

786 567 219

994 496 498

1183 611 572

1187 635 552

972 739 233

1051 804 247

1414 1018 395

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.8 5.7 9.2 7.7

17.8 5.7 9.7 8.1

18.8 5.3 10.2 8.6

19.7 5.3 10.8 9

20.8 5.1 11.3 9.4

21.8 5 11.9 9.9

22.9 5 12.5 10.4

23.9 4.6 13.1 10.8

25 4.4 13.7 11.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 4.1

15.4 3.7

15.9 3.1

16.4 3

16.9 2.8

17.3 2.7

17.8 2.7

18.2 2.3

18.6 2.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43.8 38.7

45.8 39.7

47.8 40.6

49.9 41.4

52 42.2

54.1 43

56.3 43.7

58.5 44.4

60.5 45

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.7 4.6

51.8 4.2

53.9 4.1

56.3 4.5

58.8 4.5

61.4 4.4

64 4.3

66.5 3.9

69.1 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

184 1.6

186.6 1.4

188.7 1.1

190.4 0.9

192.3 1

193.9 0.8

195.1 0.6

196.4 0.7

197.7 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 1.2

3.1 1.5

3.2 1.5

3.2 0.9

3.2 0.4

3.2 0.2

3.2 0.3

3.3 0.4

3.3 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

180.9 1.6

183.5 1.4

185.5 1.1

187.2 0.9

189.1 1

190.7 0.9

191.8 0.6

193.1 0.7

194.4 0.6

8 5.5

8.4 4.4

8.6 2.3

8.8 2.5

9 2.7

9.2 2.2

9.4 1.7

9.5 1.4

9.6 0.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 0.1

25.2 0.3

25.2 0.1

25.2 0.1

25.2 0

25.2 -0.1

25.1 -0.3

25.2 0.1

25.2 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 19.5 2.1

3.9 19.6 2.1

4 19.7 2.2

4 19.7 2.2

4 19.6 2.2

4.1 19.6 2.2

4.1 19.5 2.2

4.1 19.5 2.2

4.1 19.5 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 1.2

3 0.7

3 1.2

3 0.8

3 0.9

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.1

3.1 0.7

3.2 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 1.8

7.8 1.3

7.9 0.7

7.9 0.8

8 0.9

8.1 0.8

8.1 0.7

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 5.1

23.1 4.4

23.6 2

24.2 2.5

25 3.3

25.8 3.1

26.3 2

26.9 2.3

27.6 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 1.3

22.9 1.5

23.4 1.9

23.7 1.3

23.9 1

24.2 1.2

24.5 1.2

24.8 1.4

25.2 1.5

21 2.8

21.3 1.2

21.6 1.3

21.8 1.1

21.9 0.5

21.9 -0.1

21.8 -0.2

21.8 -0.4

21.7 -0.4

10.4 2.1

10.5 0.9

10.6 0.6

10.7 0.7

10.7 0.2

10.7 -0.2

10.7 -0.2

10.7 0.3

10.7 0.1

2 -4

2 -1.8

2.1 5.3

1.9 -5.9

1.9 -0.1

1.9 0

1.9 0.3

1.9 0.3

1.9 0.1

58.9 0.1

59.3 0.8

59.7 0.7

60 0.5

60.3 0.5

60.7 0.6

60.9 0.3

61.1 0.3

61.1 0.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

384.4 0.8

388.5 1.1

392.3 1

395.9 0.9

399.3 0.9

402.8 0.9

406.2 0.8

409.5 0.8

412.8 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

195.4 1

197.5 1

199.8 1.2

201.7 1

203.6 0.9

205.5 1

206.8 0.7

207.5 0.3

208.3 0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

1983 1193 790

2184 1194 991

2265 1211 1054

2373 1264 1109

2429 1289 1140

2479 1314 1166

2524 1351 1172

2470 1297 1174

2415 1228 1187

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

26.1 4.3 14.3 11.8

27.3 4.6 15 12.3

28.7 5.3 15.8 13

30.2 5.2 16.6 13.6

31.8 5.2 17.5 14.3

33.4 5.2 18.4 15

35.1 5 19.4 15.7

36.9 5.1 20.3 16.6

38.7 5 21.3 17.4

40.6 5 22.4 18.3

19 2.2

19.5 2.6

20.1 3.3

20.7 3.1

21.4 3.1

22.1 3.1

22.7 2.9

23.4 3

24.1 3

24.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

62.7 45.6

65.1 46.4

68 47.6

71 48.7

74.1 49.9

77.5 51.1

80.8 52.3

84.4 53.5

88.1 54.8

92 56.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

71.7 3.8

74.6 4.1

78 4.5

81.5 4.5

85.1 4.4

88.8 4.4

92.7 4.3

96.7 4.4

100.9 4.3

105.3 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

198.7 0.5

199.8 0.6

201.3 0.7

202.9 0.8

204.8 0.9

206.7 0.9

208.1 0.7

209.3 0.6

210.6 0.6

211.9 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 0.4

3.3 -0.4

3.3 -0.3

3.3 -0.2

3.2 -0.3

3.2 -0.5

3.2 -0.6

3.2 -0.3

3.2 -0.1

3.2 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

195.4 0.5

196.6 0.6

198.1 0.8

199.6 0.8

201.5 1

203.5 1

204.9 0.7

206.1 0.6

207.4 0.6

208.7 0.6

9.6 0.3

9.6 -0.2

9.7 0.9

9.8 1.7

10.1 2.5

10.2 1.7

10.4 1.5

10.6 1.7

10.7 1.5

10.9 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 0.1

25.2 0.2

25.2 0

25.2 0

25.3 0.4

25.4 0.2

25.4 0.2

25.4 0

25.5 0.2

25.5 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.1 19.5 2.2

4.1 19.5 2.2

4 19.6 2.3

4 19.6 2.3

4 19.8 2.3

4 19.9 2.3

4 20 2.3

4 20 2.3

4 20.2 2.3

4 20.3 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 0.7

3.2 1.1

3.3 1.5

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.2

3.4 1.3

3.4 1.4

3.5 1.6

3.5 1.8

3.6 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 0.5

8.3 0.3

8.3 0.3

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.8

8.5 0.6

8.5 0.4

8.6 0.4

8.6 0.4

8.6 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.1 1.7

28.7 2

29.3 2.3

29.8 1.5

30.5 2.3

31.2 2.5

31.6 1.4

32 1

32.3 1.1

32.8 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 1.5

25.9 1.3

26.2 1.1

26.5 1.1

26.8 1.2

27.2 1.4

27.5 1.1

27.7 0.7

27.8 0.6

28 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.1

21.7 0.2

21.7 0.2

21.8 0.2

21.9 0.7

22.1 0.6

22.2 0.6

22.3 0.4

22.4 0.7

22.6 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 -0.2

10.7 -0.2

10.7 0.2

10.8 0.7

10.8 0.7

10.9 0.7

11 0.8

11.1 0.7

11.1 0.7

11.2 0.7

1.9 0.1

2 1.8

2 2.6

2.2 8.8

2.2 -2

2.2 2.5

2.3 2.4

2.3 2.4

2.4 2.5

2.5 2.4

61.2 0.2

61.4 0.2

61.6 0.4

61.9 0.5

62.2 0.4

62.4 0.4

62.6 0.3

62.8 0.3

63 0.3

63.1 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

416 0.8

419.3 0.8

422.5 0.8

425.5 0.7

428.5 0.7

431.4 0.7

434.2 0.6

436.9 0.6

439.4 0.6

442 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

209.2 0.4

210.7 0.7

212.5 0.9

214.4 0.9

216.2 0.8

217.9 0.8

219.7 0.8

221.3 0.7

223.1 0.8

224.8 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

2380 1194 1185

2342 1160 1182

2385 1186 1200

2408 1177 1231

2467 1215 1252

2400 1129 1271

2450 1160 1290

2534 1220 1314

2534 1199 1335

2552 1225 1327


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

42.6 4.8 23.4 19.2

44.7 5 24.6 20.1

47 5.1 25.8 21.2

49.3 5 27.1 22.3

51.8 4.9 28.4 23.4

54.3 4.8 29.8 24.5

56.9 4.8 31.2 25.6

59.7 5 32.8 26.9

62.7 5 34.5 28.2

65.9 5.1 36.3 29.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 2.8

26.2 2.9

27 3

27.8 2.9

28.6 2.9

29.4 2.7

30.2 2.7

31 2.9

31.9 2.9

32.9 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

95.8 57.3

100 58.6

104.6 60

109.2 61.5

114 62.9

118.9 64.3

123.9 65.7

129.4 67.2

135.2 68.8

141.2 70.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

109.7 4.2

114.5 4.3

119.5 4.4

124.5 4.2

129.7 4.2

135.1 4.2

140.8 4.2

146.9 4.3

153.4 4.4

160.3 4.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

213 0.5

214.2 0.5

215.5 0.6

216.9 0.7

218.5 0.7

219.8 0.6

221.3 0.7

222.8 0.7

224.3 0.7

225.9 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -0.1

3.2 -0.1

3.2 -0.1

3.2 -0.2

3.2 -0.1

3.2 -0.3

3.2 -0.2

3.2 -0.3

3.1 -0.5

3.1 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

209.8 0.5

211 0.5

212.3 0.6

213.7 0.7

215.3 0.7

216.7 0.6

218.1 0.7

219.6 0.7

221.2 0.7

222.8 0.7

11 1.2

11.1 1

11.3 1.2

11.4 1

11.5 1.4

11.6 1.1

11.7 0.9

11.9 1.5

12.1 1.4

12.2 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 0.1

25.6 0.1

25.6 0.1

25.6 0

25.6 0.2

25.6 -0.1

25.6 0.2

25.7 0.1

25.7 0.1

25.7 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 20.4 2.2

3.9 20.5 2.2

3.9 20.6 2.2

3.9 20.7 2.2

3.9 20.8 2.2

3.9 20.9 2.2

3.9 21 2.1

4 21 2.1

4 21.1 2.1

4.1 21.1 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 1.3

3.7 1.2

3.7 1

3.8 1

3.8 1.4

3.9 1.7

3.9 1.4

4 1.2

4 0.7

4 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 0.2

8.7 0.3

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.3

8.8 0.4

8.8 0.3

8.8 0.3

8.8 0.3

8.9 0.3

8.9 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 1.1

33.5 1

33.9 1.2

34.4 1.5

35 1.8

35.6 1.7

36.3 2

37.1 2.2

38 2.3

38.8 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.1 0.4

28.3 0.7

28.5 0.7

28.7 0.9

29 1

29.2 0.9

29.5 0.7

29.7 0.7

29.9 0.8

30.2 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 0.6

22.8 0.5

23 0.7

23.1 0.5

23.2 0.6

23.3 0.3

23.4 0.5

23.4 0.1

23.4 0.1

23.4 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 0.4

11.3 0.5

11.4 0.6

11.4 0.5

11.5 0.6

11.6 0.4

11.6 0.2

11.6 0.3

11.7 0.4

11.7 0.5

2.5 2.3

2.6 2.2

2.6 2.1

2.8 5.8

2.7 -1.5

2.8 2.2

2.8 1.6

2.9 2.1

2.9 2

3 2

63.3 0.3

63.5 0.3

63.7 0.3

63.9 0.3

64.2 0.4

64.3 0.2

64.4 0.2

64.5 0.2

64.6 0.1

64.7 0.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

444.5 0.6

447 0.6

449.4 0.5

451.8 0.5

454 0.5

456.4 0.5

458.9 0.5

461.3 0.5

463.9 0.6

466.5 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

226.4 0.7

227.9 0.7

229.5 0.7

231.2 0.8

232.9 0.7

234.4 0.6

235.9 0.7

237.5 0.7

239.3 0.8

241.3 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.2

2507 1202 1305

2478 1181 1297

2500 1201 1299

2476 1173 1303

2458 1177 1281

2452 1183 1269

2473 1212 1261

2515 1259 1256

2519 1257 1262

2504 1237 1267

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125


T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.9 7.3 8.6 7.3

16.1 6.6 8.7 7.3

16.3 6.4 8.8 7.4

16.5 6.4 9 7.5

16.7 5.3 9.1 7.6

16.9 5.4 9.2 7.7

17.2 5.6 9.4 7.8

17.4 5.7 9.5 7.9

17.7 5.8 9.6 8.1

17.9 5.8 9.8 8.2

18.1 5.6 9.9 8.3

18.4 5.4 10 8.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 5.6

14.4 4.9

14.5 4.9

14.7 4.9

14.8 3.7

14.9 3.7

15.1 3.9

15.2 3.8

15.4 3.8

15.5 3.8

15.6 3.4

15.7 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

41.7 37.5

42.1 37.8

42.6 38

43.1 38.4

43.5 38.6

44 38.8

44.5 39.1

45.1 39.4

45.6 39.6

46.1 39.9

46.5 40

47 40.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.5 7.4

47.9 6.3

48.3 6.5

48.9 5.6

49.4 4

49.9 4.3

50.5 4.5

51 4.3

51.5 4.3

52 4.1

52.5 4

53 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

180.8 2.5

181.7 1.8

182.3 1.1

183 1.8

183.7 1.6

184.3 1.4

184.8 1.4

185.7 1.5

186.3 1.5

186.9 1.4

187.5 1.4

188 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -3.9

3.1 -2

3.1 -1.9

3.1 1

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.2

3.1 1.4

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.6

3.2 1.8

3.2 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

177.8 2.6

178.6 1.9

179.3 1.1

179.9 1.8

180.6 1.6

181.2 1.4

181.7 1.4

182.6 1.5

183.2 1.5

183.8 1.4

184.3 1.4

184.8 1.2

7.5 2.2

7.6 0.4

7.7 1.8

7.8 4.9

7.9 5.4

8.1 6.2

8.2 5.7

8.3 5.7

8.3 4.9

8.4 3.9

8.4 3.3

8.5 2.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 2.5

25.1 2

25.1 1.9

25.1 0.2

25.1 0.1

25.1 0

25.1 0.1

25.2 0.4

25.2 0.4

25.2 0.3

25.2 0.2

25.2 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 19.3 2

3.8 19.4 2.1

3.8 19.4 2.1

3.9 19.5 2.1

3.9 19.5 2.1

3.9 19.5 2.1

3.9 19.5 2.1

3.9 19.6 2.1

3.9 19.6 2.1

3.9 19.7 2.1

3.9 19.6 2.1

4 19.7 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -10.3

2.9 -8.4

2.9 -7

2.9 1

3 1.9

2.9 1.2

2.9 0.8

2.9 -0.3

3 -0.1

3 1.1

3 2.1

3 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 2.7

7.6 1.5

7.7 0.4

7.7 2.1

7.7 1.9

7.7 1.7

7.8 1.5

7.8 1.7

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.1

7.8 1

7.9 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21 4.8

21.2 3.5

21.4 1.9

21.8 5

22.1 5.3

22.3 5.2

22.5 5

22.8 5

23.1 4.5

23.3 4.2

23.4 3.9

23.4 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 2.7

22.4 1.5

22.4 1.1

22.5 1.6

22.6 1.2

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.4

22.9 1.4

23 1.4

23.1 1.6

23.2 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 4

20.6 4.7

20.8 4.5

20.9 4.2

21 3

21.1 2.2

21.2 1.7

21.2 1.3

21.2 1.2

21.3 1.1

21.4 1.1

21.5 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 11.3

10.3 7.7

10.3 2.9

10.4 2.6

10.4 2.3

10.5 2

10.5 1.6

10.5 1.4

10.5 1.1

10.6 0.8

10.6 0.5

10.6 0.5

2.1 6.4

2.1 2

2 -2.5

2 -3

2 -4

2 -4.7

2 -4.2

1.9 -3.6

2 -2.2

2 -1

2 -0.2

2 0.2

58.8 0.7

58.8 0.2

58.8 -0.4

58.8 0.2

58.8 0.1

58.8 0.1

58.9 0.2

59.1 0.4

59.2 0.7

59.4 0.9

59.5 1

59.7 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

381 0.4

381.5 0.4

382.1 0.4

382.9 0.6

383.9 0.8

385 0.9

386 1

387 1.1

388 1.1

389 1.1

390 1

391 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

193.6 3.6

194 3

194.3 2.2

194.7 1.3

195.1 0.8

195.6 0.8

196.1 1

196.6 1

197.1 1

197.7 1.1

198.3 1.1

198.9 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126

4

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.2

1341 983 358

1517 1037 480

1682 1088 593

1829 1138 691

1981 1196 785

2015 1215 800

2107 1226 882

2159 1208 951

2197 1193 1004

2182 1186 996

2198 1188 1010

2222 1197 1025

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.7 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $42,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $57,600. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 132,899.50 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with a high average annual growth rate of 7.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent, and the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to see a decline, averaging -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,522,960 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 43.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 58,039 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Tampa Bay still a leader in home flipping but profits are dropping • Although the house-flipping market in Tampa Bay has cooled somewhat, home flippers are still finding success in most Tampa-area ZIP codes. • The dip in flips has been widely attributed to rising home prices even for fixer-uppers. This, in turn, has prompted a rise in financing for home flippers as opposed to buying homes with cash.

• The area ZIP code that saw the highest gross profit was 33704 in St. Petersburg, where home flippers bought for a median price of $80,650 and sold for a median price of $279,950.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 8, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

127


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Developers buoyed by sales at Tampa’s new Virage condo tower • A proposed 24-story condo tower in Tampa has seen robust sales, as it has almost neared the threshold it needs before it can begin construction.

• Roughly $60 million worth of units are under contract, including a penthouse that is priced at just under $5 million. If the deal goes through, it will be Tampa’s most expensive condominium sold in a decade.

• Developers do worry that their initial success in sales will give the impression that they don’t have many units left to offer. In fact, there are a large variety of units still unsold, including a second penthouse.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2017

St. Pete Economic Development Corporation lures marketing firm MXTR to town • Although it is not yet clear what incentives were used, it appears St. Petersburg Economic Development Corporation has brought its first major business to town as digital marketing company MXTR Automation announced that it will open an office in downtown St. Pete this year.

• The company plans to fill 20 high-wage creative positions in the next 18 months, which will make up the Pennsylvania company’s second location. • Mickey Locey, president of MXTR, explained that St. Petersburg’s talent pool, downtown lifestyle, and business-friendly tax environment were all factors in the decision.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 24, 2017

American Arts and Crafts Museum in St. Petersburg ready to build

• Downtown St. Petersburg is set to see the construction of a new $70 million Museum of the American Arts and Crafts Movement. Construction was expected to begin in January, but permit delays pushed back the start date.

128

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

• The project, designed by Tampa architect Alberto Alfonso, is expected to take over two years to build, but will house a 137,000-square-foot collection of furniture, pottery, tile, metalwork, lighting, photography, and other decorative arts. • The museum’s founders have already sunk $16 million into the project in property acquisitions and other expenses.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 11, 2017

Energy company plans solar farm in northeast Pasco

• Spain-based alternative energy company ESA Renewables has proposed to build and operate a 90-acre solar panel farm in rural Pasco County. • The proposed site has previously been hotly contested, as local residents recently prevented the land from being developed for housing by pushing for rural protections. • However, some of those same residents have come out in support of the solar farm, which could potentially power some 2,400 homes.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 27, 2017

Tampa International Airport details $543 million second phase of massive construction plan

• The newest phase of Tampa International Airport’s $2.3 billion renovation and expansion will feature a gas station, a hotel, retail and office space, and a widening of the main road to the airport. • Site preparation is scheduled for mid-2018 and should be completed by 2023. One of the biggest challenges will be to keep traffic disruption to a minimum, as the airport is still seeing growing passenger numbers.

• The first phase of the expansion, which will be completed next year, includes a massive rental car facility and a new people mover train.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 18, 2017


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

250000.0

10.0%

200000.0

8.0%

150000.0

6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

100000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 2000.0

(Thousands)

1800.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

1600.0

0.0%

1400.0 -5.0%

1200.0 1000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tampa Payroll Employment

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

129


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2017

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

101.5 -2.5 51.1 50.4

107.6 6.1 51.3 56.3

115.8 7.6 53 62.8

113.9 -1.6 55.5 58.4

114 0.1 57.3 56.8

120.6 5.8 60.2 60.5

128 6.1 64.2 63.7

134.6 5.2 68.6 66

141.8 5.4 73.2 68.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

101.8 -1.6

107.1 5.2

112.2 4.8

108.5 -3.3

107.2 -1.2

111.6 4.1

118 5.7

122.8 4.1

127.3 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.7 36.8

38.5 38.3

40.9 39.6

40 38

39.6 37.2

41.3 38.2

43 39.6

44.3 40.4

45.8 41.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.2 1.6

45.9 1.4

46.6 1.7

47.8 2.5

48.2 0.7

49.3 2.3

50.8 3.2

52.4 3

54.2 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1117.7 -5.9

1105.9 -1.1

1123.3 1.6

1148.9 2.3

1176.4 2.4

1208.4 2.7

1250.7 3.5

1297.2 3.7

1338.5 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.9 -13.4

58.2 -6.1

58.8 1.1

59.4 1.1

60 1

61.2 1.9

62.2 1.7

64.6 3.8

65.6 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1055.8 -5.5

1047.7 -0.8

1064.5 1.6

1089.5 2.3

1116.4 2.5

1147.2 2.8

1188.5 3.6

1232.6 3.7

1272.9 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

60.2 -21.2

52.8 -12.3

52.6 -0.3

54.2 3

56.9 5

60.8 6.9

64.9 6.8

70.8 9

78.8 11.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

210.6 -7.4

209.4 -0.6

213.4 1.9

219 2.6

222.9 1.8

232 4.1

240 3.5

248.2 3.4

252.3 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.7 137.2 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

46.3 141.3 25.8

48.5 144 26.6

48.9 146.7 27.3

50.4 152.8 28.7

51.2 159.2 29.6

51.9 165.9 30.4

53.4 169.8 30.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 -9

25.7 -6.6

25.9 0.6

25.7 -0.5

26.1 1.4

25.6 -2.1

25.8 1

25.5 -1.1

26 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

93.2 -5.4

89.4 -4.1

91.6 2.5

95.5 4.3

99.7 4.3

101.7 2.1

103.9 2.1

107.2 3.1

110.3 2.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

170 -7.1

174.2 2.5

182.5 4.8

190.9 4.6

198.2 3.8

204.3 3.1

217.8 6.6

231.5 6.3

240.5 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

174.5 0.8

178 2

180.9 1.6

182.3 0.8

184.6 1.3

188.4 2

194.6 3.3

200.1 2.8

206 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

122.1 -4.7

121.4 -0.6

123 1.3

128.3 4.4

133.3 3.9

138.4 3.8

144.6 4.5

149 3

154.4 3.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

43.1 -8

41.9 -2.7

41.3 -1.6

41.1 -0.5

42.4 3.3

43.4 2.2

43.4 0

45.1 3.9

47.3 5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 3.7

24 5.5

22.9 -4.6

22.6 -1.2

22.7 0.3

22.9 0.8

23.6 3.1

24.3 3.1

24.5 0.8

131.8 0.5

130.9 -0.6

130.4 -0.4

129.7 -0.6

129.6 -0.1

129.8 0.2

129.8 0

131.2 1.1

132.9 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2767.8 0.7

2794.9 1

2829.7 1.2

2851 0.8

2878.7 1

2923.4 1.6

2979.1 1.9

3039.5 2

3095.8 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1379.2 -0.9

1384.6 0.4

1398.3 1

1410.7 0.9

1420.9 0.7

1434.3 0.9

1439.7 0.4

1475.7 2.5

1518.4 2.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

11

11.1

9.9

8.2

6.9

6

5.2

4.6

4

5899 3979 1920

6360 4530 1830

6970 4514 2456

9056 5928 3129

11571 7251 4320

11686 7111 4575

14788 9754 5033

17233 11374 5859

20561 12710 7851


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

150.3 5.9 78.2 72

159.2 6 83.2 76

167.8 5.4 88 79.8

176.6 5.3 93 83.6

185.6 5.1 98.5 87.1

194.9 5 104 90.9

204.6 4.9 109.4 95.1

214.3 4.8 115 99.3

224.1 4.6 120.9 103.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.9 4.3

138.1 3.9

142.4 3.1

146.6 3

150.7 2.8

154.7 2.7

158.8 2.6

162.7 2.5

166.5 2.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

47.8 42.3

50.1 43.5

52.3 44.4

54.5 45.2

56.7 46

59 46.8

61.3 47.6

63.6 48.3

65.9 48.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.3 3.9

58.7 4.2

61.1 4.1

63.8 4.4

66.5 4.4

69.4 4.3

72.2 4.1

75.1 4

78 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1377.1 2.9

1406.3 2.1

1427.9 1.5

1447 1.3

1467.8 1.4

1487.2 1.3

1502.7 1

1519.9 1.1

1537.8 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

66.1 0.8

67 1.3

67.8 1.2

68.2 0.6

68.5 0.5

68.7 0.3

68.8 0.2

69 0.2

69.2 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1311 3

1339.4 2.2

1360.1 1.6

1378.8 1.4

1399.3 1.5

1418.5 1.4

1433.9 1.1

1451 1.2

1468.6 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

84.8 7.6

89.5 5.6

92.5 3.3

95.7 3.5

99.1 3.5

102.1 3.1

104.7 2.6

107 2.1

108.4 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

253.9 0.6

255.1 0.5

255.6 0.2

256.1 0.2

256.4 0.1

256.4 0

256.2 -0.1

256.6 0.2

256.7 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

54.6 172.4 30.9

55.3 173.9 31.1

56 174.5 31.1

56.5 174.8 31.1

56.8 174.7 31.1

57 174.5 31

57.1 174.2 30.8

57.1 174.7 31

57.1 175.1 31.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 2

26.8 1.1

27.1 1.2

27.3 0.8

27.6 1.1

28 1.4

28.4 1.3

28.7 1

29 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

114.4 3.8

116.6 1.9

117.8 1.1

119.3 1.2

120.7 1.2

122.1 1.1

123.4 1.1

124.8 1.1

126.2 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

256.4 6.6

269.7 5.2

276.6 2.5

284.8 3

295.2 3.7

305.6 3.5

313.1 2.5

321.8 2.8

332.4 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

209.1 1.5

212 1.4

215.9 1.8

218.6 1.3

220.7 1

223.4 1.2

226.2 1.3

229.5 1.5

233 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

159.5 3.3

161.7 1.4

164.2 1.5

166.3 1.3

167.4 0.7

167.6 0.1

167.6 0

167.3 -0.2

166.9 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.5 2.4

48.9 0.9

49.1 0.4

49.4 0.6

49.5 0.1

49.4 -0.2

49.3 -0.2

49.4 0.4

49.5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 -3.6

23.2 -1.8

24.1 4.1

23 -4.8

23 0

23 0.2

23.1 0.4

23.2 0.5

23.3 0.3

134.2 1

135.8 1.2

137.3 1.1

138.4 0.8

139.6 0.9

140.9 0.9

141.9 0.7

142.7 0.6

143.2 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3140.5 1.4

3177.6 1.2

3210.8 1

3242.5 1

3273.9 1

3305.9 1

3338.1 1

3370.4 1

3402.8 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1532.6 0.9

1549.2 1.1

1565.1 1

1573.3 0.5

1581.6 0.5

1592.8 0.7

1604.2 0.7

1611.8 0.5

1621.7 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

21222 13698 7525

21225 13847 7378

22016 14063 7953

23133 14691 8442

23797 15072 8725

24347 15409 8938

24848 15850 8998

24373 15376 8997

23998 14870 9128

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

131


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2017

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

234.1 4.4 126.6 107.5

245.2 4.8 133.1 112.1

258.6 5.5 140.8 117.9

272.4 5.3 148.9 123.5

287.3 5.5 157.9 129.4

302.8 5.4 167.2 135.6

318.7 5.2 176.6 142.1

335.7 5.3 186.3 149.4

353.5 5.3 196.6 156.9

372.2 5.3 207.6 164.5

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

170.4 2.3

175.1 2.8

181.1 3.5

187.1 3.3

193.4 3.4

199.9 3.3

206.2 3.2

213 3.3

219.8 3.2

226.9 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

68.1 49.6

70.7 50.5

73.9 51.8

77.2 53

80.6 54.3

84.2 55.6

87.9 56.9

91.8 58.2

95.8 59.6

100 61

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

80.9 3.8

84.3 4.2

88.2 4.6

92.2 4.6

96.5 4.6

100.8 4.5

105.4 4.5

110.2 4.6

115.1 4.5

120.3 4.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1551.9 0.9

1566.2 0.9

1583.9 1.1

1602.1 1.1

1624 1.4

1646.3 1.4

1663.3 1

1678.9 0.9

1695.8 1

1714 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

69.3 0.1

68.8 -0.7

68.3 -0.6

67.9 -0.6

67.5 -0.7

66.9 -0.9

66.3 -0.9

65.8 -0.7

65.6 -0.4

65.4 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1482.7 1

1497.5 1

1515.6 1.2

1534.1 1.2

1556.5 1.5

1579.4 1.5

1597 1.1

1613.1 1

1630.2 1.1

1648.7 1.1

109.3 0.8

109.7 0.4

111.7 1.8

114.4 2.4

118 3.2

121 2.5

123.7 2.3

126.9 2.6

129.8 2.3

132.7 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

257 0.1

257.5 0.2

257.5 0

257.7 0

258.8 0.4

259.5 0.3

259.9 0.2

260.1 0.1

260.5 0.1

260.8 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

56.9 175.7 31.1

56.5 176.4 31

56 176.9 31

55.7 177.9 30.8

55.6 179.7 30.8

55.5 181.2 30.6

55.3 182.5 30.5

54.9 183.6 30.2

54.5 185.3 29.9

54.2 187 29.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 1.1

29.7 1.4

30.3 1.8

30.8 1.8

31.3 1.6

31.8 1.7

32.4 1.8

33 2

33.7 2.2

34.5 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.4 0.9

128.3 0.7

129.1 0.7

130.5 1

132.1 1.2

133.6 1.1

134.8 0.9

136 0.9

137.3 0.9

138.6 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

339.4 2.1

347.6 2.4

357.4 2.8

364.4 2

374.7 2.8

385.3 2.8

392.1 1.7

397.7 1.4

404.5 1.7

412.5 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

236.6 1.6

239.7 1.3

242.4 1.1

245.2 1.1

248.3 1.3

251.7 1.4

254.5 1.1

256.8 0.9

258.4 0.6

260.2 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

167.1 0.1

167.8 0.4

168.6 0.5

169.3 0.4

170.9 1

172.3 0.8

173.8 0.9

174.8 0.6

176.5 1

177.9 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

49.4 -0.2

49.3 -0.1

49.4 0.2

49.8 0.7

50.1 0.7

50.5 0.7

50.9 0.8

51.3 0.7

51.6 0.7

52 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 0.3

23.7 1.6

24.2 2.1

26.2 8.3

25.6 -2.6

26.1 2.1

26.6 2

27.1 2

27.7 2.1

28.2 2

143.7 0.4

144.2 0.3

145 0.6

145.9 0.6

146.8 0.6

147.6 0.6

148.4 0.5

149.3 0.6

150.3 0.6

151.2 0.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3434.9 0.9

3466.8 0.9

3498.7 0.9

3530.5 0.9

3562.4 0.9

3594.1 0.9

3625.9 0.9

3657.7 0.9

3689.5 0.9

3721.3 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1632.9 0.7

1648 0.9

1665.7 1.1

1683.6 1.1

1701 1

1718.2 1

1735.7 1

1752.7 1

1770.9 1

1789 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

132

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

3.9

4

4

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

23608 14442 9166

23220 14102 9118

23764 14538 9226

24119 14672 9447

24558 14982 9576

23796 14093 9703

24491 14662 9829

25401 15389 10012

25644 15473 10171

25807 15715 10092


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2017

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

391.4 5.2 219 172.4

411.9 5.3 231 180.9

433.9 5.3 243.6 190.2

456.9 5.3 256.9 200

481.6 5.4 271.8 209.7

507.1 5.3 287.6 219.5

534 5.3 304.6 229.5

563 5.4 322.7 240.3

594.1 5.5 342.4 251.7

626.6 5.5 363.1 263.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

233.9 3.1

241.3 3.2

249.1 3.2

257.2 3.2

265.7 3.3

274.2 3.2

283.1 3.2

292.5 3.3

302.5 3.4

312.7 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

104.3 62.3

108.8 63.8

113.7 65.3

118.7 66.8

124.1 68.5

129.7 70.1

135.4 71.8

141.5 73.5

148.1 75.4

154.8 77.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 4.5

131.5 4.5

137.3 4.4

143.2 4.3

149.7 4.6

156.6 4.6

163.9 4.6

171.3 4.6

179.3 4.7

187.7 4.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1729.5 0.9

1745.4 0.9

1763 1

1783 1.1

1803.7 1.2

1824.5 1.2

1847.1 1.2

1872 1.3

1897.6 1.4

1922.8 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

65.1 -0.4

64.8 -0.4

64.5 -0.5

64.2 -0.5

63.9 -0.4

63.6 -0.6

63.2 -0.6

62.8 -0.6

62.3 -0.9

61.5 -1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1664.4 1

1680.6 1

1698.6 1.1

1718.8 1.2

1739.8 1.2

1760.9 1.2

1783.8 1.3

1809.2 1.4

1835.3 1.4

1861.4 1.4

135.4 2

137.8 1.8

140.6 2.1

143.2 1.8

146.1 2.1

149 2

152.2 2.1

156.5 2.8

160.6 2.6

164.4 2.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

261 0.1

261.2 0.1

261.5 0.1

261.6 0.1

262.2 0.2

262.3 0

262.8 0.2

263.5 0.3

264.1 0.3

265 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

53.7 188.6 29

53.3 190.1 28.6

52.9 191.8 28.2

52.8 193.2 27.9

52.8 195 27.5

53 195.9 27.1

53.4 197.4 26.7

53.9 198.5 26.4

54.4 199.8 26

55 200.9 25.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

35.1 1.8

35.7 1.7

36.2 1.5

36.7 1.5

37.5 2

38.3 2.2

39 1.9

39.7 1.7

40.1 1.1

40.6 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

139.6 0.8

140.9 0.9

142.1 0.8

143.4 1

145 1.1

146.5 1.1

148 1

149.5 1

151.1 1.1

152.9 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

419.2 1.6

425.7 1.6

433.4 1.8

441.8 1.9

451.6 2.2

461.6 2.2

473 2.5

486.3 2.8

500.7 3

515 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

261.6 0.5

263.6 0.8

265.3 0.6

268 1

270.8 1.1

273.5 1

275.8 0.8

277.6 0.7

279.3 0.6

280.9 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

179.5 0.9

180.8 0.7

182.6 1

184 0.8

185.6 0.9

186.8 0.6

188.3 0.8

189.1 0.5

190.3 0.6

191.1 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

52.2 0.5

52.6 0.7

53 0.8

53.4 0.7

53.9 0.8

54.3 0.7

54.6 0.6

55 0.8

55.5 0.8

56 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.8 1.9

29.3 1.8

29.8 1.7

31.4 5.4

30.8 -1.8

31.4 2

31.9 1.4

32.4 1.8

33 1.7

33.6 1.7

152.1 0.6

153 0.6

154.1 0.7

155.2 0.7

156.3 0.7

157.3 0.7

158.4 0.7

159.5 0.7

160.7 0.7

161.9 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3753.1 0.9

3784.8 0.8

3816.5 0.8

3848 0.8

3879.3 0.8

3910.6 0.8

3944.3 0.9

3978 0.9

4012.2 0.9

4046.3 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1806.5 1

1823.5 0.9

1841 1

1860 1

1878.4 1

1896.4 1

1912.4 0.8

1927.6 0.8

1943.8 0.8

1961.2 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

4

3.9

3.9

3.9

25541 15615 9926

25344 15483 9861

25581 15701 9880

25530 15605 9926

25508 15742 9766

25520 15849 9670

25948 16324 9623

26600 16984 9616

26911 17231 9680

27174 17435 9739

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2017

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

140.8 5.4 72.6 68.2

142.9 5.3 73.8 69.1

144.8 5.4 74.9 69.9

147.1 6 76.4 70.8

149.1 5.9 77.6 71.5

151.3 5.9 78.9 72.4

153.6 6 80.1 73.5

156 6 81.5 74.5

158.1 6.1 82.6 75.5

160.4 6 83.9 76.5

162.4 5.7 85 77.4

164.5 5.5 86.1 78.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

126.7 3.7

128 3.6

129.4 3.9

131 4.5

132.1 4.3

133.4 4.2

134.9 4.3

136.3 4.1

137.5 4.1

138.7 4

139.7 3.6

140.8 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.6 41

46 41.3

46.5 41.5

47.1 41.9

47.6 42.1

48.1 42.4

48.7 42.7

49.3 43.1

49.8 43.3

50.4 43.6

50.9 43.8

51.4 44

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54 3.8

54.4 2.8

54.8 2.8

55.4 3.4

56 3.6

56.6 4.1

57.3 4.5

57.8 4.3

58.4 4.3

59 4.2

59.5 4

60.2 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1332.5 3.2

1344.5 3.3

1354.9 3

1365.6 3.3

1373.9 3.1

1381.3 2.7

1387.6 2.4

1396.5 2.3

1403.3 2.1

1410.1 2.1

1415.3 2

1419.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

65.6 1.4

65.6 1.3

65.7 0.9

65.8 0.5

66.1 0.9

66.2 0.9

66.3 1

66.6 1.1

66.8 1.1

67.1 1.3

67.3 1.5

67.5 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1266.9 3.3

1278.9 3.4

1289.2 3.1

1299.7 3.4

1307.8 3.2

1315.1 2.8

1321.2 2.5

1330 2.3

1336.5 2.2

1343 2.1

1348 2

1351.8 1.6

77.9 11.6

79.3 12

81.1 9.9

82.6 7.5

84 7.9

85.6 8

87 7.2

88.2 6.7

89.1 6

90 5.2

90.8 4.4

91.4 3.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

251.9 1.7

252.7 1.3

253.4 1.5

253.4 0.8

253.7 0.7

254.1 0.6

254.4 0.4

254.9 0.6

255 0.5

255.2 0.4

255.2 0.3

255.7 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

53.2 169.4 30.3

53.6 170.4 30.5

54.1 171 30.7

54.3 172 30.8

54.5 172.2 30.9

54.6 172.5 31

54.8 172.8 31

55 173.5 31

55.2 173.7 31

55.4 174.1 31.1

55.5 174 31.1

55.8 174.4 31.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26 1.8

25.9 1.5

26 2.8

26.5 1.9

26.7 2.8

26.5 2

26.3 1.4

26.5 0.1

26.8 0.3

26.9 1.5

27 2.5

27.1 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

109.7 2.8

110.9 3.2

112.2 3.4

113.4 4.7

114.1 4

114.8 3.6

115.4 2.9

116 2.3

116.4 2

116.8 1.7

117.2 1.6

117.5 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

238.1 3.5

242.5 4.3

246 3.7

251.1 6.7

255.2 7.2

258.4 6.6

261 6.1

265.5 5.7

268.7 5.3

271.5 5.1

273.3 4.7

273.9 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

205.6 3.5

206.8 3.2

207.5 2

208.1 1.9

208.9 1.6

209.5 1.3

210 1.2

210.9 1.3

211.6 1.3

212.4 1.4

213.3 1.5

214.4 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

153.4 3.5

155.7 4.1

157.4 4.7

158.6 5

159.1 3.7

159.9 2.7

160.5 1.9

160.9 1.5

161.3 1.4

162.1 1.4

162.6 1.3

163.2 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 5.4

47.5 5

47.9 4.4

48.2 3

48.4 2.7

48.6 2.2

48.7 1.7

48.8 1.3

48.9 1

48.9 0.8

48.9 0.5

49 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 1.5

24.5 0.4

24.3 -1.1

24 -2.5

23.7 -3.5

23.4 -4.3

23.3 -4

23.3 -3

23.2 -1.9

23.2 -1.2

23.1 -0.9

22.8 -2

132.7 1.7

133.1 1.2

133.5 1.3

133.8 1.1

134.1 1

134.3 0.9

134.6 0.8

135 0.9

135.6 1.1

136.1 1.4

136.5 1.5

136.9 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3090.2 1.9

3102.6 1.8

3114 1.7

3125.3 1.6

3135.7 1.5

3145.7 1.4

3155.4 1.3

3164.5 1.3

3173.4 1.2

3182 1.2

3190.5 1.1

3198.7 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1518.5 3.4

1521.2 3

1523.1 2.1

1526.7 1

1530.3 0.8

1534.5 0.9

1538.9 1

1543.2 1.1

1547 1.1

1551.3 1.1

1555.3 1.1

1559.6 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

134

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

20299 12473 7826

20807 12756 8051

21034 13040 7994

21335 13403 7932

21531 13646 7884

21016 13865 7151

21007 13877 7130

20995 13867 7128

21284 13816 7468

21222 13854 7369

21399 13851 7548

21557 13881 7676

Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017


Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto. Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P 407.823.1451 E ssnaith@ucf.edu


UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTR AL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P. O . B OX 1 6 1 4 0 0 ORL ANDO, FLORIDA 32816 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 • F X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

W W W. I E C . U C F. E D U

UCF Florida Metro Forecast June 2017  
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